A Review of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of China's
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sustainability Review A Review of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of China’s South–North Water Transfer Project: A Sustainability Perspective Maxwell C. Wilson 1,*, Xiao-Yan Li 2,3 ID , Yu-Jun Ma 2,3, Andrew T. Smith 1 and Jianguo Wu 1,4,5 1 School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA; [email protected] (A.T.S.); [email protected] (J.W.) 2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; [email protected] (X.-Y.L.); [email protected] (Y.-J.M.) 3 School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 4 Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 5 School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 29 June 2017; Accepted: 14 August 2017; Published: 22 August 2017 Abstract: China’s South–North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) has the potential to transfer as much as 44.8 km3 year−1 of water from the Yangtze River basin to the Yellow River basin. However, the SNWTP has not been assessed from a sustainability perspective. Thus, in this study we evaluated the SNWTP’s economic, social, and environmental impacts by reviewing the English literature published in journals that are part of the Web of Science database. We then synthesized this literature using a Triple Bottom Line framework of sustainability assessment. Our study has led to three main findings: (1) whether the SNWTP is economically beneficial depends largely on model assumptions, meaning that economic gains at the regional and national level are uncertain; (2) the SNWTP requires the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of people and challenges existing water management institutions, suggesting possible social concerns beyond the short term; and (3) evidently large environmental costs in water-providing areas and uncertain environmental benefits in water-receiving areas together point to an uncertain environmental future for the geographic regions involved. Thus, the overall sustainability of SNWTP is seriously questionable. Although much work has been done studying individual aspects of SNWTP’s sustainability, few studies have utilized the multi-scale, transdisciplinary approaches that such a project demands. To minimize environmental risks, ensure social equity, and sustain economic benefits, we suggest that the project be continuously monitored in all three dimensions, and that integrated sustainability assessments and policy improvements be carried out periodically. Keywords: inter-basin water transfer; Integrated Water Resource Management; North China Plain; South–North Water Transfer Project; water sustainability 1. Introduction Access to clean water is fundamental to sustainable development. Despite the central role of water, as much as 80% of the human population lives in a state of water insecurity [1]. However, on a global scale water is abundant, suggesting that the problems of water scarcity are partly attributable to spatial and temporal mismatches in water availability and water demand [2]. One solution to these spatial mismatches is to move water from water-rich areas to water-poor areas using inter-basin water transfers. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1489; doi:10.3390/su9081489 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2017, 9, 1489 2 of 11 Sustainability 2017, 9, 1489 2 of 11 ChinaChina isis aa classicclassic exampleexample ofof thethe disconnectiondisconnection between between water water supply supply and and demand. demand. ThoughThough thethe countrycountry may may have have adequate adequate water water supplies supplies on aon national a nation scale,al scale, the vast the majority vast majority of this waterof this is water located is inlocated the Yangtze in the drainage Yangtze basindrainage which basin is too which mountainous is too mountainous for the large-scale for the agriculture large-scale necessary agriculture to feednecessary China’s to population feed China’s [3]. population In contrast, [3]. the In North cont Chinarast, the Plain North (NCP), China which Plain contains (NCP), many which of contains China’s mostmany productive of China’s agricultural most productive centers andagricultural large urban centers areas, and faces large acute urban water areas, scarcity faces when acute measured water onscarcity a per when capita measured basis [4,5 ].on Further, a per capita many basis of the [4,5]. NCP’s Further, rivers many suffer of fromthe NCP’s poor waterrivers qualitysuffer from [6], worseningpoor water water quality scarcity. [6], worsening Exacerbated water by thescarcity. NCP’s Exacerbated critical place by in the China’s NCP’s food critical supply place and in economy, China’s thisfood scarcity supply has and long economy, lead the this Chinese scarcity government has long lead to seekthe Chinese alternative government measures to to seek alleviate alternative water stressmeasures in this to regionalleviate [7 ,water8]. Broadly stress conceivedin this region by Chairman [7,8]. Broadly Mao conceived Zedong [ 9by], theChairman South–North Mao Zedong Water Transfer[9], the South–North Project (SNWTP) Water represents Transfer China’s Project grandest (SNWTP attempt) represents to solve China’s the NCP’s grandest water attempt woes throughto solve thethe largest NCP’s inter-basinwater woes water through transfer the largest in human inter-basin history water [10]. transfer in human history [10]. TheThe SNWTPSNWTP consistsconsists ofof three routes (Figure 11).). The Eastern Route Route (ER-SNWTP) (ER-SNWTP) is is an an update update of ofthe the ancient ancient Grand Grand Canal Canal [9], [ 9a], system a system of diversions of diversions and and lakes lakes that thathistorically historically transported transported goods goods from fromthe Yangtze the Yangtze River River basin basinto the to Yellow the Yellow River Riverbasin. basin.This route This can route transfer can transfer nearly 9 nearly km3/year 9 km of3 /yearwater, ofand water, future and plans future suggest plans that suggest this could that rise this to could as much rise as to 14.8 as much km3/year as 14.8 by 2030 km3 /year[11]. In by contrast, 2030 [11 the]. InMiddle contrast, Route the (MR-SNWTP), Middle Route the (MR-SNWTP), first stage of thewhich first was stage completed of which in was 2014, completed is a new inconstruction, 2014, is a newreaching construction, from the Danjiangkou reaching from Reservoir the Danjiangkou on the Han Reservoir River (a tributary on the Han to the River Yangtze), (a tributary and crossing to the Yangtze),Henan and and Hebei crossing provinces Henan before and Hebeireaching provinces its destination before reachingin Beijing its and destination Tianjin. In in total, Beijing the andMR- Tianjin.SNWTP In can total, carry the MR-SNWTPup to 9.5 km can3/year carry of upwater to 9.5 over km 12463/year km of [7]. water Similar over 1246to the km ER-SNWTP, [7]. Similar tofuture the ER-SNWTP,plans to expand future this plans structure to expand suggest this that structure 13 km suggest3/year of that water 13 km could3/year eventually of water be could transferred eventually [7]. beFinally, transferred the Western [7]. Finally, Route the(WR-SNWTP) Western Route calls (WR-SNWTP)for a system of callscanals, for which, a system if constructed, of canals, which,will cross if constructed,the Qinghai–Tibetan will cross Platea the Qinghai–Tibetanu, transferring Plateau,17 km3/year transferring [7] of water 17 km from3/year the [7 ]headwaters of water from of thethe headwatersYangtze River of the Basin Yangtze to the River headwa Basinters to of the the headwaters Yellow River of theBasin. Yellow River Basin. FigureFigure 1.1. AA sketchsketch mapmap ofof thethe South–NorthSouth–North WaterWaterTransfer Transfer Project Project (modified (modified from from [ 12[12]).]). ConstructionConstruction of the the most most recent recent phase phase began began in 2002 in 2002following following as much as as much 50 years as 50 of yearsplanning of planning[4,13]. Two[4, 13of ]three. Two routes, of three ER-SNWTP routes, ER-SNWTP and MR-SNW and MR-SNWTP,TP, are operational are operational and will together and will be together capable 3 beof capabledelivering of up delivering to 27.8 km up/year to 27.8 of kmwater3/year to the of NCP water when to the future NCP construction when future is constructioncomplete [7,11]. is completeThe construction [7,11]. The of the construction WR-SNWTP of, on the the WR-SNWTP, other hand, onhas the been other indefinitely hand, has delayed been [14]. indefinitely Despite delayedthe scale [14 of]. this Despite massive the hydrological scale of this massive project, hydrologicalit has not been project, holistical it hasly assessed not been from holistically a sustainability assessed fromperspective. a sustainability Rather, perspective.in place of Rather,such a inholistic place ofassessment, such a holistic fragmented assessment, literature fragmented exists literaturein which individual disciplinary groups have each examined the SNWTP separately while failing to integrate their findings with those from other disciplines. Here we carry out such an integrative analysis, Sustainability 2017, 9, 1489 3 of 11 exists in which individual disciplinary groups have each examined the SNWTP separately while failing to integrate their findings with those from other disciplines. Here we carry out such an integrative analysis, reviewing each paper concerning the SNWTP published in Web of Science journals from up to July 2017, regardless of discipline, and synthesizing the existing knowledge of the SNWTP using a Triple Bottom Line framework [15,16]. 2. Materials and Methods To generate the body of literature on the SNWTP, we entered the search term “South North Water Transfer Project” into Clarivate Analytics’ Web of Science (https://www.webofknowledge.com/) for the years 1900–2017 on 24 July 2017. To these, we added nine immediately relevant works published outside the journals in the Web of Science database: Liu [3], Liu and Zeng [17], Berkoff [4], Nickum [9], He et al.