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Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1948

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Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1948 FEDERAL ESERVE BULLETIN OCTOBER 1948 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EDITORIAL COMMITTEE ELLIOTT THURSTON WOODLIEF THOMAS WINFIELD W. RIEFLER The Federal Reserve BULLETIN is issued monthly under the direction of the staff editorial committee. This committee is responsible for interpretations and opinions expressed, except in official statements and signed articles. CONTENTS PAGE Bank Credit Developments. 1205-1216 Policies and Activities of the International Monetary Fund, 1947-48. 1217-1220 Report of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. 1220 Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements. 1221-1239 Current Events and Announcements. 1239 Law Department: Consumer Instalment Credit—Transactions Initiated Before Effective Date of Regulation—Automobile Appraisal Guides. 1240-1242 Foreign Funds Control—Treasury Department Releases 1242-1244 National Summary of Business Conditions. 1245-1246 Financial, Industrial, Commercial Statistics, U. S. (See p. 1247, for list of tables) . 1247-1304 International Financial Statistics (See p. 1305, for list of tables). 1305-1323 Board of Governors and Staff; Open Market Committee and Staff; Federal Advisory Council . 1324 Senior Officers of Federal Reserve Banks; Managing Officers of Branches 1325 Federal Reserve Publications. 1326-1327 Map of Federal Reserve Districts. 1328 Subscription Price of BULLETIN A copy of the Federal Reserve BULLETIN price in the United States and its possi Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemal; Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 34 October 1948 NUMBER 10 BANK CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS Inflationary pressures have continued dom- deposits and currency has been smaller over inant in the economy notwithstanding meas- the past twelve months as a whole than in ures of restraint in the credit field that have other comparable periods since the war. been adopted since mid-1947. Continuing In the fall of 1947 the rapid growth in bank expansion of bank credit for private purposes loans and a large gold inflow sharply in- during the past fifteen months has been a creased the volume of deposits and currency. contributing factor to, as well as an effect of, Subsequently, however, a Treasury cash sur- prevailing inflationary tendencies. Business plus drained a substantial amount of funds outlays for plant and equipment and con- out of private accounts. In recent months sumer expenditures for homes and for other deposit expansion has been resumed. The goods and services have mounted further further growth of bank deposits has been over the period. In addition, foreign aid and the result of additional bank loan expansion military expenditures of the Federal Gov- and of sales of Government bonds by non- ernment have been substantially enlarged, bank investors to the Federal Reserve, the and public works expenditures of State and proceeds of which have been used to make local governments have increased signifi- business or real estate loans or to buy cor- cantly. porate securities. Financing of the nation's growing volume In the period since mid-1947 a moderate of expenditures has been possible from rising restraint on bank credit expansion has been personal incomes, business profits, and gov- ernmental revenues, supplemented by reduc- achieved by use of Treasury surplus funds tions of liquid asset holdings by many busi- to retire securities held by the Federal Reserve nesses and individuals and by growth in pri- Banks. Drains on bank reserves achieved vate and State and local government debt, in this way have been the most important including indebtedness to commercial banks. means of restraint on bank credit expansion. With output of commodities and services Reductions in taxes effective in May and in- close to maximum levels and undergoing creased Government expenditures for de- only moderate further growth, over-all de- fense and foreign aid, however, reduce and mand has continued to exceed available sup- may eliminate the Treasury cash surplus ply. As a consequence, strong upward pres- available to exert this restraining influence. sure on wholesale and consumer prices has Supplementing the restraining effect of the persisted. Treasury surplus, action has been taken to Expansion in the volume of privately held increase rates on short-term Government OCTOBER 1948 1205 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis BANK CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS securities. This has raised the cost of reserves cities. Since June of this year private bank to banks and at the same time made it more credit expansion has followed a pattern simi- attractive to banks and others to hold these lar to, but somewhat smaller than, that of a securities. Other short-term money rates year ago. Expansion has occurred in all have shown a corresponding rise. credit categories except loans on securities, In addition, a large amount of bank re- and during September it gained considerable serves, or assets potentially convertible into momentum. reserves, has been immobilized through ac- Business credit. Businesses as a group have tion of the Board increasing reserve require- sought a particularly heavy volume of funds ments of member banks. Increases were im- from banks since mid-1947. The outstanding posed on central reserve city banks in New business loans of banks rose about 4 bil- York and Chicago in February and June 1948 lion dollars from mid-1947 through the third on the basis of then existing statutory au- quarter of 1948. Business demand for bank thority. In September the Board made use credit has stemmed from continued large- of new powers, granted in August in a spe- scale operations under conditions of steadily cial session of Congress, to increase reserve rising prices. Funds have been sought for requirements for all member banks. The inventory accumulation and plant and equip- latter increase, which absorbed into required ment expenditures, as well as for higher reserves a total of about 2 billion dollars, cor- day-to-day expenses and an increase in cus- responded approximately to net Federal Re- tomer financing. Demand has been wide- serve purchases of Government securities spread and pervasive, coming from small as from nonbank investors in recent months, well as large companies in many industrial and necessitated little or no decline in the lines. Insurance companies and some other total of bank loans and investments from the nonbank lenders have also increased con- level prevailing three months earlier. siderably their loans to business enterprises. Business loan demand at banks in recent BANK CREDIT EXPANSION years, as can be seen from the accompanying The continuing inflationary tendencies and chart, has exhibited a marked seasonal char- the large aggregate expenditures for goods acter, increasing sharply during the last half and services that have characterized the eco- of each year, with a small increase, or even nomic situation during the past year have a slight decrease, occurring during the first been fed by a total loan expansion at com- half of the year. During the past fifteen mercial banks of over 6 billion dollars in months, there has been an increase of near- the twelve months ending June 30. In addi- record proportions in the last half of 1947, a tion, commercial bank investments in securi- slight decrease in the first half of 1948, and ties other than those of the United States since mid-June, according to data for mem- Government increased about 700 million dol- ber banks in leading cities, a growth that has lars during this period. Private bank credit proceeded at a somewhat slower rate than expansion was larger than in any similar past last year. period except the previous year. This expan- Corporations have also satisfied a signifi- sion occurred at banks located in all sections cant portion of their demand for new funds of the country and at banks of all sizes, but during the past year by issuing new securi- particularly at banks in rural areas and small ties, largely bonds. Commercial bank hold- 1206 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis BANK CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS ings of corporate securities increased only surpluses this year, short-term loans to farm- slightly in this period, the bulk of the offer- ers guaranteed by the Commodity Credit ings being absorbed by insurance companies Corporation under the Federal farm price and other nonbank investors, including in- support program may be expected to increase dividuals. substantially this fall. Farm mortgage debt, on the other hand, COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS MEMBER BANKS has risen only slightly this past year. Com- ALL INSURED BANKS IN LEADING CITIES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS mercial banks, insurance companies, and other private investors have increased their holdings of farm mortgages, but those of public lending agencies have decreased. Consumer credit. Consumers have also sought substantial amounts of credit since mid-1947, largely to make additional pur- chases of automobiles, home furnishings, and other durable goods. The increase in con- sumer debt has occurred in spite of rising incomes and larger aggregate consumer hold- ings of liquid assets. Total short-term consumer credit outstand- l ing has increased approximately 3 /2 billion dollars during the past fifteen months. Com- mercial banks have accounted for about one- 1944 1946 1948 1947 1948 half of this increase. In addition, a part of All insured commercial banks in the United States. Com- the increase in business loans at banks repre- mercial loans include commercial and industrial loans, open- market commercial paper, and acceptances. Latest figures are sents advances to other consumer financing for June 30, 1948. For member banks in leading cities figures on commercial institutions, which in turn have loaned to in- loans include commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans, open-market commercial paper, and acceptances. Latest figures dividuals or bought consumer credit paper are for September 22, 1948.
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