Response and Management of Earthquake Hazard in Bangladesh

Dr Sheikh Tawhidul Islam Professor, Department of Geography and Environment Director, Institute of Remote Sensing Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh

17 April 2017, Beijing. Outline of the Presentation

• Disaster history of Bangladesh (including earthquake disaster) • Potential earthquake risks in Bangladesh • Earthquake response and management in Bangladesh • Examples of earthquake risks in Bangladesh Disaster History of Bangladesh Disasters have been the main contexts for Bangladeshi communities within which they have been adapting to the challenges for everyday living and gradually strengthen capacities to thrive. The country’s overall capacity has evolved based on the lessons learned from success and failures of disaster management actions and process.

The Bengal Famine of 1943, severe consecutive floods happened in the years 1953, 1954, 1955, severe cyclone in 1970, famine in eighties (1974) due to Brahmaputra flooding and crop failure, widespread and prolonged floods in 1987, 1988, cyclone stricken in 1991, then cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Aila in 2009 are known big events in Bangladesh disaster history happened in the past half century. Although these events caused huge miseries in the lives of people but at the same time managing these events had created grounds of opportunities for the people, state agencies and professionals to gain knowledge, experience that gradually assisted to developed nation’s disaster management capacity. Earthquake Disaster in Bangladesh Earthquake hazard poses huge threats to the lives of people, damage of property and economy in Bangladesh because of its location in the tectonically active Himalayan orogenic belt. The major earthquakes happened in Bangladesh include 1548 earthquake hit in Chittagong and Sylhet regions, earthquake stricken in 1642 in Sylhet district, earthquake took place in 1918 in Sylhet district, 1762 earthquake that shaken most parts of Bangladesh, great Indian earthquake happened in 1897 (8.7 magnitude on Richter Scale) caused huge damage in Dhaka, Sylhet and Mymensingh districts. In recent memories, 1997, 1999 and 2003 earthquake in greater Chittagong regions caused local level damages. Study suggests that around 250,000 buildings in the three major cities of Bangladesh like Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet are extremely vulnerable to earthquakes. Some 142,000 among 180,000 (79%) buildings in Chittagong; 24,000 out of 52,000 in Sylhet (46%); and 78,000 out of 326,000 buildings (24%) in Dhaka were detected as risky to earthquake hazards by MoDMR assessment (2015). BANGLADESH HAZARD PROFILE

DROUGHT Affects 2.3 m ha crop land. Loss of grazing fields, dried up ponds, water shortage. In 2006, reduced food grains by 1 million tons. FLASH FLOOD Damages standing crops, infrastructures and facilities. Unpredictable, uncertain. FLOOD Inundates 20% (normal years) to 75% of land area during monsoon, increases river erosion, breaches embankments, damages infrastructures. Loss of crops, fisheries, livestock, biodiversity. SALINITY INTRUSION Damages biodiversity, crop lands, livelihoods, safe water sources. Spreading intrusion from 0.75 to 1.5 m ha (2009); 53% of coastal area affected. Projected displacement: 6-8 million people by 2050 CYCLONE Remains the deadliest, most destructive hazard. Recurring events, lingering aftermath, complex recovery. Improved preparedness (CPP, shelters, embankments). AND CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS, EARTHQUAKES, FIRE BREAKOUTS, INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSES, ETC.

Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II) Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief Major Hazards Earthquake Risk in Bangladesh Earthquake Threats

 In general, at short return period, i.e. 43 years, the observed seismicity in and around Bangladesh controls the hazard for most considered structural periods.  Ground motion across Bangladesh represented by PGA is in the range of 0 .1-0 .6g, corresponding to the 475-year return period and in the range of 0.1-1.0 g, corresponding to the 2,475-year return period.  The effect of high-slip-rate of Duaki fault could be observed as the largest seismic hazard in Bangladesh. Source: MoDMR (2015) Buildings-at-risk in different cities of Bangladesh to earthquake hazards

Cities Total Generation of debris Concrete Structure Masonry Structure Informal Structures number of

buildings

Ton)

(Million

Complete Complete Complete Complete

% % ofsteel

Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

brick/wood

Metric Metric

followed by followed

Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage

Total buildings Total buildings Total buildings Total

Bogra Municipality 92830 3.850 73, 27 9829 22.86 8.37 61288 19.79 32.19 20227 18.54 0.1

Dinajpur Municipality 41955 1.390 75, 25 3929 22.74 1.78 23318 25.7 16.16 8057 14.48 0

Mymensingh Municipality 45033 4.55 70, 30 7703 0.58 97.77 26789 0.57 91.77 10541 38.36 1.57

Rajshahi City Corporation 93885 1.610 68, 32 7982 23.85 8.62 80618 29.73 18.84 5142 18.07 0.14

Rangpur City Corporation (old 76444 2.81 73, 27 6294 31.33 29.32 37436 13.84 42.18 32694 10.66 0.15 municipal area)

Tangail Municipality 68348 0.35 72, 28 4864 20.54 10.57 13076 40.04 5.93 44417 12.07 0

MoDMR (2015). Atlas: Seismic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh for Bogra Dinajpur Mymensingh Rajshahi Rangpur and Tangail City Corporation/Municipality Areas. Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Learning from Recent Building-Collapse Management Experience (Rana Plaza)

Expenditure from government organizations for Rana plaza victims (450 million BDT, equivalent to 5.62 million USD) Earthquake Response and Management in Bangladesh Disaster Management Regulatory Framework Disaster Management Committees

Inter-related institutions, at both national and sub-national levels have been created to ensure effective planning and coordination of disaster risk reduction and emergency response management.Followingis the listof NationalandSub-nationallevelinstitutionsrespectively.

At National Level

1. National Disaster Management Council (NDMC)headed by the HonorablePrime Minister to formulate and review the disaster management policies and issue directives to all concerns. 2. Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Co-ordination Committee (IMDMCC) headed by the Hon'ble Minister in charge of the Disaster Management and Relief Division (DM&RD) to implement disaster management policies and decisions of NDMC / Government. 3. National Disaster Management Advisory Committee (NDMAC) headed by an experienced person having been nominated by the HonorablePrime Minister. 4. National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (NPDRR) headed by Secretary, DM&RD and DG, DDM functions as the member secretary. This platform shall coordinate and provide necessary facilitation to the relevant stakeholders. 5. Earthquake Preparedness and Awareness Committee (EPAC) headed by Honorable minister for MoFDM and DG, DDM act as member secretary. 6. Cyclone Preparedness Program Implementation Board (CPPIB) headed by the Secretary, Disaster Management and Relief to review the preparedness activities in the face of initial stage of an impending cyclone. 7. Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) Policy Committee headed by Honorable Minister, MoFDM and Secretary, DM&RD act as member secretary. Disaster Management Training and Public Awareness Building Task Force (DMTATF) headed by the Director General of Department of Disaster Management (DDM) to coordinate the disaster related training and public awareness activities of the Government, NGOs and other organizations. 8. Focal Point Operation Coordination Group of Disaster Management (FPOCG) headed by the Director General of DDM to review and coordinate the activities of various departments/agencies related to disaster management and also to review the Contingency Plan prepared by concerned departments. 9. NGO Coordination Committee on Disaster Management (NGOCC) headed by the Director General of DDM to review and coordinate the activities of concerned NGOs in the country. 10. Committee for Speedy Dissemination of Disaster Related Warning/ Signals (CSDDWS) headed by the Director General of DDM to examine, ensure and find out the ways and means for the speedy dissemination of warning/ signals among the people. At Sub-National Level

1. District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC) headed by the Deputy Commissioner (DC) to coordinate and review the disaster management activities at the District level. 2. Upazila Disaster Management Committee (UZDMC) headed by the Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) to coordinate and review the disaster management activities at the Upazila level. 3. Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) headed by the Chairman of the Union Parishadto coordinate, review and implement the disaster management activities of the concerned Union. 4. Paurashava Disaster Management Committee (PDMC) headed by Chairman of Pourashava (Paurashava) to coordinate, review and implement the disaster management activities within its area of jurisdiction. 5. City Corporation Disaster Management Committee (CCDMC) headed by the Mayor of City Corporations to coordinate, review and implement the disaster management activities within its area of jurisdiction.

Earthquake Preparedness and Awareness Committee (EPAC)

The Government of Bangladesh has formed a committee on Earthquake Preparedness and Awareness, in order to prepare the nation for earthquake risk management (SOD, 2010) Chaired by the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. The Committee is supposed to meet twice a year, the Chairman may call additional meetings, if needed. Sub committees may be formed for contingency planning and aspect of earthquake risk reduction. Responsibilities of the committee are to (1) Review national earthquake preparedness and awareness programme and recommend suggestion for concerned organizations. (2) Review the list of Search and Rescue equipment for earthquake. (3) Prepare and recommend a list of equipment for earthquake risk reduction and search and rescue programme after an earthquake. Earthquake Disaster Response

An Emergency Response and Communication Centre (ERCC) and a National Disaster Management Research and Training Institute (NDMRTI) are about to be established under the Urban Resilience Project. The purpose of the ERCC and NDMRTI is to enhance the emergency management and preparedness capacity at national level and local level city corporations as well as FSCD (Fire Service and Civil Defense) in Dhaka and Sylhet through training, exercise and drills. MoDMR has procured 7,496 no. of equipment for search and rescue operation related to earthquake and other disasters in 2011-2014. These equipment have already been distributed to Fire Service & Civil Defense and Armed Forces Division. Procurement of more equipment is under process. Tentatively, 15,020 no. of disaster related equipment is planned to be procured during the 7th FYP period. Besides, 2154 no. of equipment for water related disasters will be procured with support of Government of Japan by 2020.

In order to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the post-earthquake search and rescue operations, government has undertaken initiatives to form a total of 70,260 thousand urban volunteers by 2020. As a part of initiative, the MoDMR through its CDMP Project has already developed 32 thousand volunteers. Earthquake Disaster Response

MoDMR prepared contingency plans for emergency response and recovery stages of earthquake disaster management for different levels. Scenario based contingency plan has been prepared for national level. In addition, contingency plans developed for city level, e.g. for the city corporations in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet. Agency level contingency plans include Department of Disaster Management (DDM), Armed Forces Division (AFD ), Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation (DRR), Fire Service and Civil Defense (FSCD), Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Limited (TGTDCL), Bangladesh Telecommunication Company Limited (B TCL), Dhaka Power Distribution Company Limited (DPDC) and Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA). Scenario based contingency plans have also been prepared at city level for the cities of Bogra, Dinajpur, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Rangpur and Tangail, and at Ward Level fo r Dhaka North City Corporation (13 Wards), Dhaka South City Corporation (12 Wards), Chittagong City Corporation (15 Wards) and (10 Wards ).

The plans have identified evacuation routes, emergency shelter locations and identified gaps in the resource and needs by the responding agencies. GoB's direct investment for DRR

Financial Agency Budget 2015-16 Revised budget 2014-15 Budget 2014-15 Code 4901 Secretariat, 16803918000 15096422000 (188.71 million 18342705000 (229.28 million MoDMR (210.05 million USD) USD) USD)

4932 DDM 6502600000 6079400000 (75.99 million USD) 5911200000 (73.89 million (81.28 million USD) USD)

Total expenditure 23306,518000 (291.33 21175822000 (264.7 million 24253905000 (303.17 million million USD) USD) USD)

In that period, UN agencies allocated BDT 226.3 million (approximately USD 2.83 milllion), NGOs allocated BDT 826.1 million (approximately USD 10.33 million) and the International Federation of Red Cross-Bangladesh red Crescent Society (IFRC-BDRCS) allocated BDT 250.4 million (approximately USD 3.13 million). Social Safety Net Programs (SSNP) projects implemented by MoDMR in 2014-15 fiscal year as part of disaster vulnerability reduction of the communities. Major Achievements in Earthquake Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Bangladesh

 30,011 (of whom 6,970 are female and 23,041 are male) urban community volunteers trained  10 Model Fire Stations with highly specialized search and rescue equipment established  28 Fire Service and Civil Defence and Ministry of Home Affairs officials received overseas training on search and rescue and 2,088 professionals received in-country training  Geological, geomorphological, and engineering geological maps of 6 cities have been developed  DRR and CCA issues have been incorporated in 35 text books of primary to secondary education system; over 22 million students (from classes III to XII) of every academic year now have access to DRR and CCA knowledge  Disaster Risk Reduction Action Plan, Earthquake Contingency Plan and gender toolkit developed for Department of Women Affairs (DWA); 250 DWA officials have received training on disaster and climate Change from training programs organized in 10 districts.  National Health Crisis Management and Archive Centre established  Guidelines for nonstructural vulnerability assessment for hospitals and post-earthquake comprehensive health care action plan for urban cities developed  70% of weather forecast processing time has been reduced as a result of installing Weather Research and Forecasting simulation system; 593 officials trained on meteorological services and ICT  115 million cell-phone users now have direct access to early warnings of approaching hydro- meteorological disasters by dialing 10941.  For every dollar invested in flood early warning, we could expect an estimated return of $ 260 Key Challenges in Earthquake Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Bangladesh

• Understanding, knowledge and capacity gaps • Priorities in financing in DRR • Weak integration with development efforts • Weakness in implementation, monitoring and shared learning • Gaps in institutional coordination • Lack in decentralization • Comprehensive policy in recovery activities • Mainstreaming gender in disaster risk reduction is still weak Examples of Earthquake Risks in Bangladesh Cities Built up along the Rivers: Khulna City Cities Built up along the Rivers: Mymensingh City Urbanization Process

• Current urbanization level 28.4% (2015), size of urban population 42.7 million (2011) living in 570 urban centers. • 50% urban population by 2047. Trends of Urbanization in Bangladesh (1901-2011) Figure 6: Drainage pattern of the area. Figure 2: Physical components of NORI (proposed in the DPP).

Thank you.