2012 UPDATE SCHOOL DISTRICT FACILITIES PLAN SOUTHEAST KOOTENAY SCHOOL DISTRICT
October 2012
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION APPENDICES 1.1 Project Objectives 1 A April 2012 Presentation to SD5 Board 1.2 Principles and Priorities 1 B Best K-12 Enrolment Forecasts for SD5 Schools 1.3 Timeframe of Project 1 C Grade Configuration Options 1.4 Geographical Context 2 D Capacity Utilization Profiles for SD5 Schools
2. EXISTING SCHOOL FACILITIES 2.1 Condition of Existing School Facilities 3 REPORT DATA 2.2 Capacity of Existing Schools 5 Report: School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, 2.3 Current Capacity Utilization 7 School District 5 (Southeast Kootenay) Matrix project number: 1216 3. NEEDS ANALYSIS Client: School District 5 (Southeast Kootenay) 3.1 Population Forecast 9 Date: 2012 10 01 3.2 Development Context for SD5 Communities 10 3.3 Approach to Enrolment Forecasts 12 Matrix Planning Associates 3.4 Enrolment Forecast for SD5 12 Unit GA6, 379 Tyee Road, Dockside Green Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V9A 0B4 3.5 Enrolment Forecasts for Cranbrook Schools 13 Telephone: 250-598-9912 3.6 Enrolment Forecasts for Elk Valley Schools 20 Website: matrixplanning.bc.ca 3.7 Comments on the Enrolment Forecasts 25
3.8 Baseline Analysis of Future Capacity Utilization 26
4. THE EMERGING STATUS QUO PLAN 4.1 Key Challenges 30 4.2 The Status Quo Plan 30 4.3 The Status Quo Plan in Elkford 30 4.4 The Status Quo Plan in Sparwood 31 4.5 The Status Quo Plan in Fernie 31 4.6 The Status Quo Plan in Jaffray 31 4.7 The Status Quo Plan in Cranbrook 31 4.8 Comments on the Status Quo Plan 32
5. ALTERNATIVES TO CONSIDER 5.1 Framework for Alternatives 34 5.2 Alternatives for Elkford 34 5.3 Alternatives for Sparwood 35 5.4 Alternatives for Fernie 37 5.5 Alternatives for Jaffray 37 5.6 Alternatives for Cranbrook 38 5.7 Merits of the Alternatives 40
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES The Southeast Kootenay School District (SD5) retained Matrix Planning Associates to update the Long-Range Facilities Plan for SD5 that we prepared in October 2008. The enrolment forecasts outlined in the current updated district facilities plan are based on actual enrolments from September 2011, four years later than the enrolment forecasts in the 2008 Long-Range Facilities Plan. At the time of the previous district facilities plan, the central challenge to SD5, was to maintain quality educational programs and opportunities for its students in the context of reduced enrolment. Enrolments have declined in the past few years, but, unlike four years ago, future prospects are more positive with indications that declines are slowing and there may be some modest enrolment increases on the way. The updated district facilities plan needed to respond to the changing enrolment prospects as well as focus more closely on the need to upgrade and renew existing school facilities. As before, the overall goal is to upgrade the facilities occupied by students and SD5 staff without increasing the proportion of the operational budget dedicated to facilities.
1.2 PRINCIPLES AND PRIORITIES We based the emerging plans outlined in this report on the following guiding principles and SD5 priorities: Strive to provide K-12 education in each SD5 community. This is a practical local interpretation of the more general principle of having schools located close to where students live. This fundamental goal must be balanced against the paramount requirement of maintaining educational standards. Strive to improve the condition of SD5 school facilities. This goal will be achieved by setting capital priorities to improve overall quality of the learning environment. Strive to have schools with optimal capacities, primarily to maximize educational opportunities. SD5 identifies 350 as the ideal size for elementary, 450 as the ideal size for middle, and 900 as an ideal minimum for secondary. Strive to maintain the senior middle grade configuration of K-6 | 7-9 | 10-12 or the equivalent of K-6 | 7-12. Consider reducing surplus space in order to maximize resources available for increasing educational opportunities.
1.3 TIMEFRAME OF PROJECT Much of the analytical work documented in this report was completed during March and April 2012. The results were presented to the SD5 Board on April 30. The slides used for that presentation are shown in Appendix A.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 1
1.4 GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT Figure 1 illustrates that SD5 is a mountainous area bounded by Alberta on the east and the United States to the south. This part of BC has strong ties to Alberta. School District 6 (Rocky Mountain), which is centred in Kimberly, is to the north and west of SD5. School District 8 (Kootenay Lake), centred on Nelson, is to the west.
Figure 1: Map of School District 5 Elkford
Kimberley Sparwood Blairmore
Cranbrook Fernie
Jaffray
SD5 is a merger of two former districts — one centred on Cranbrook and one centred on Fernie. The area of the former Fernie-centred school district is referred to as the Elk Valley. The largest communities in the Elk Valley are Fernie, Sparwood and Elkford. Highway 3 links Cranbrook with Jaffray, Fernie and Sparwood. Highway 3 also links SD5 to Blairmore and other communities of the Municipality of Crowsnest Pass in Alberta. The area known as South Country includes Jaffray as well as Grasmere and other small communities along Highway 93 south to the US border. Cranbrook has close ties with Kimberly to the northwest on Highway 95A. As of the fall of 2011, SD5 had a total of 17 active community-based schools: Ten schools in Cranbrook. One school in Jaffray. Two schools in Fernie. Two schools in Sparwood. Two schools in Elkford.
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2. EXISTING SCHOOL FACILITIES
2.1 CONDITION OF EXISTING SCHOOL FACILITIES As outlined in Figure 2, our analysis of building condition for the 17 SD5 schools places the facilities into four categories related to the level of capital investment likely to be required over the next several years to bring existing school facilities to modern standards of health, safety, energy efficiency and functionality: Group A schools are new or nearly new. These facilities are unlikely to require any significant investment in upgrading or functional renovations for many years. All other considerations being equal, it would be better to retain these schools as part of the long-term plan. We placed three schools in Group A. Group B schools have considerable useful life, but will require modernization. SD5 can expect to invest in upgrading these schools over the next several years. In general, there would be no significant cost premium to retain these schools as part of the long-term plan. We placed five schools in Group B. Group C schools have serious deficiencies and will require major investment in upgrading over the next several years. If the service delivery plan requires that these schools be retained, then SD5 should allocate sufficient resources to rejuvenate these facilities. We placed four schools in Group C. Group D schools are in very poor condition. It is likely that detailed technical studies of these schools would determine that replacement is more cost-effective than renovation. These school facilities should only be retained if there is a clear rationale for their long-term viability. We placed five schools in Group D. Figure 2 is an updated replacement for Appendix A in the 2008 Long-Range Facilities Plan. The first four columns of Figure 2 present simple factual data about floor area and age. The evaluation of building condition begins with the ‘Overall Facility Audit Score’ from 2007. This is taken from Appendix A of the 2008 report. The score is the result of applying a Ministry of Education tool to rate the structure, interior, services, site and other aspects of each school. Higher percentages mean better facilities. We’ve shown audit scores of less than 50% in red. The ‘Need for Investment’ is also taken from Appendix A of the 2008 report. It was our assessment at that time regarding the level of investment likely to be required to upgrade each facility over the next several years. This evaluation used the same conceptual framework as outlined above with the schools organized into four categories.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 3
Figure 2: Building Condition for SD5 Schools
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 4
The next two columns in Figure 2 (Facility Average FCI and Facility Average RI) are ratios taken from the 2011 building condition assessments conducted by VFA Canada for the Ministry of Education as part of the Ministry’s capital asset management program. These two key ratios are defined as follows: ‘FCI’ is the ‘Facility Condition Index’ and is calculated as the estimated cost of all required maintenance, repair and replacement deficiencies divided by the current replacement value. The total maintenance, repair and replacement costs are items that are required over the next five years. The current replacement value is the estimated cost of replacement for a building to meet similar demands, but meeting all current standards and codes. ‘RI’ is the ‘Requirement Index’ and is calculated as the estimated cost of all anticipated repairs to the current building using only existing technology divided by the current replacement value. This is the most relevant ratio for determining long-term priorities. With the VFA ratios (FCI and RI), lower percentages mean better facilities. We’ve shown audit scores of more than 0.50 in red. From the analysis presented in Figure 2, SD5 officials identified the following four Group D schools as priorities for upgrading: Mount Baker Secondary in Cranbrook. Amy Woodland Elementary in Cranbrook. Isabella Dicken Elementary in Fernie. FJ Mitchell Elementary in Sparwood. The VFA analysis supports the inclusion of the last three schools in the above list. We included Mount Baker Secondary based on recent technical studies of the school in relation to a SD5 proposal to replace the school. Defining a clear rationale for retaining these four facilities was an important consideration in the development of the district facilities plan. Assuming each of these facilities has a long-term role, replacing these four schools with new modern buildings becomes a central objective of the district facilities plan.
2.2 CAPACITY OF EXISTING SCHOOLS We assessed the capacity of all SD5 schools as part of the analysis behind the 2008 Long-Range Facilities Plan. We extended our assessment of capacities for this update to take into account the introduction of full day kindergarten (FDK). Traditionally, the ‘nominal’ capacities of BC schools were established based on classroom capacities of 25 students for Grades 1-12 and did not include kindergarten. Kindergarten was excluded because it was a separate program that most students attended for half days and there was no overlap between kindergarten and elementary students. This changed with the introduction of FDK. With FDK, kindergarten students attend all day and it is possible for kindergarten students to share a classroom with students in elementary grades (typically, Grade 1). As a result, we included kindergarten spaces when determining the capacities of SD5 elementary schools. This approach has the advantage of making it easier to calculate capacity utilization in a simple and inclusive manner.
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Figure 3 presents our analysis of nominal and operating capacities for the 17 existing SD5 schools. Figure 3 demonstrates the logic behind the definition of K-12 capacities for each school. The table also shows the instances where our assessment of capacity differs from the current ‘agreed nominal capacity’ on the Ministry of Education’s database. As mentioned in the 2008 report, most of the eleven proposed changes to capacity were due to physical expansions of the facilities that were not reflected in the agreed nominal capacity data.
Figure 3: Operating Capacities of SD5 Schools
The following are explanations of some of the terms used in Figure 3: Grade span refers to the range of grades served in each school. ‘K’ refers to kindergarten. Those shown in red have changed recently. Portables listed are only those structures used for instruction. Portables are not considered part of the permanent capacity of the schools.
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The agreed nominal capacity for each school is the capacity listed on the Ministry of Education database. Nominal capacities are based on an average of 25 students for all grades. The number of kindergarten modules refers the number of classrooms specifically designated for kindergarten students. We deducted from the capacity of the school the classrooms occupied by StrongStart programs in four elementary schools. There are no daycares in SD5 schools. The proposed nominal capacity for Grades 1-12 is the nominal capacity we documented in the 2008 district facilities plan less the StrongStart deductions. The difference between the agreed and proposed nominal capacities is shown in the final column. The first highlighted column entitled ‘proposed nominal capacity for K-12’ is the proposed nominal capacity for 1-12 plus 25 spaces for each of the kindergarten modules. The second highlighted column entitled ‘Operational capacity for proposed nominal’ calculates the operational capacity from the proposed nominal capacity by using an average of 19 students for kindergarten, 21 students for Grades 1-3, and 25 students for Grades 4-12. The capacities of Jaffray, Elkford, Fernie and Sparwood schools were assessed as blended secondary/elementary schools. The gross floor area is the actual area in square metres of the existing school building. The allowable floor area is the area allowed by the Ministry of Education area allocation guidelines for a new school of equivalent capacity. The actual to allowable area expresses the difference as a percentage — shown in blue if less than -15% and in red if more than +15%. Sparwood areas are from the Design Aid sheet rather than from the as-built drawings. Grade 7 shifted from FJ Mitchell to Sparwood in 2008.
2.3 CURRENT CAPACITY UTILIZATION Figure 4 shows the September 2011 funded headcount K-12 enrolment excluding adults and fee payers. The overall utilization of 82%, while still less than the Ministry of Education target of 90%, is much better than the 78% level reported in the 2008 district facilities plan based on the situation in September 2007. The improvement is primarily because of the closure of three elementary schools (Muriel Baxter, Mountain View and Grasmere) since 2007 as well the earlier closure of Max Turyk. In addition, the precipitous enrolment decline decelerated about 2009.
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Figure 4: Capacity Utilization as of September 2011
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3. NEEDS ANALYSIS
3.1 POPULATION FORECAST Figure 5 presents the latest (PEOPLE 36) population forecast from BC Statistics for the combination of communities comprising SD5. The heavy blue line is the total population and the heavy red line is the projection for school age children. The thin lines on Figure 5 are the previous population projections from BC Statistics (PEOPLE 32) that was presented in the 2008 district facilities plan.
Figure 5: BC Statistics Population Forecast for SD5
45,000 8,800
44,000 8,200
43,000 7,600
P32-Total 42,000 7,000
P36-Total 41,000 6,400
P32-5-17 40,000 5,800
P36-5-17 39,000 5,200
38,000 4,600
37,000 4,000 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Figure 5 shows that the total population of SD5 grew in the early 1990’s, declined somewhat from 1996 to 2005 and, most recently, began to grow again. BC Statistics projections indicate that the population will continue to grow until about 2030 before tapering off. The school age population (shown in red) remained relatively stable until about 1996 when it began to decline. Whereas the previous BC Statistics projection predicted that the school aged population would continue to decline until about 2025, the most recent projections from BC Statistics indicate that the decline will stabilize this year, although it shows another slight decline beginning about 2027. Figure 6 presents the school age projections shown in Figure 5 in relation to the historic and projected birth rates for SD5. Figure 6 demonstrates that part of the reason for the declining school age population over the past several years is due to the declining birth rate over the same period. However, Figure 6 also shows that the birth rate has increased over the past few years and that BC Statistics
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expects these somewhat higher birth rates to continue. In fact, if the birth rates of the last few years were to continue for several more years (quite likely) or indicate the beginning of an upward trend in birth rates (less likely), then the estimated number of school age children in SD5 could be somewhat higher than shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6: BC Statistics Birth Rates for SD5
9,000 670
8,000 600
P32-5-17 7,000 530
P36-5-17 6,000 460 P32-Births
5,000 390 P36-Births
4,000 320
3,000 250 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
From a capital planning perspective, the implications of the BC Statistics population projections are that enrolments are likely to stabilize over the next 10-15 years.
3.2 DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT FOR SD5 COMMUNITIES The following outlines some of the factors that could increase or decrease the population and potential enrolment in SD5 schools for each of the communities in the school district. As outlined in more detail in the next section, our approach has been to: Develop a best estimate enrolment forecast. Formulate a facilities plan based on this best enrolment forecast. Assess the capacity of the specified facilities to respond to the possibilities outlined for each of the communities.
Cranbrook Cranbrook’s economy is based on mining, forestry and tourism. Over the past several years, the growth in tourism has partly offset the declines in mining and forestry. In general, local municipal officials foresee a stable economic environment for Cranbrook.
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Cranbrook has plenty of land suitable for residential and other types of development. Local municipal officials believe that the larger residential projects in and around Cranbrook will move forward more slowly than previously predicted. On the other hand, they foresee more infill style residential development in established neighbourhoods. It is likely that more of the housing built over the next few years will be family oriented than some of the larger residential developments we focused on in the 2008 district facilities plan.
Fernie Fernie continues to be affected by a volatile mining industry as well as a capricious tourism industry. Currently, the mining industry is experiencing an upswing with most observers being very positive about the future of the industry. Fernie has become an increasingly desirable resort destination with many vacation and second homes. One of the consequences of this trend was that houses in Fernie became less affordable for families with children. Recent reductions in house prices have encouraged more families to locate in Fernie. It is possible that the City of Fernie may sponsor the provision of subsidized housing in Fernie to address the need for affordable housing in the community. The provision of such housing, especially if it is aimed at meeting the needs of families with children, could result in some additional enrolment in Fernie schools. The Fernie Academy is a private school in Fernie that provides educational services to students in kindergarten to Grade 12. Approximately 220 students are enrolled at the Academy. It is possible that the expansion of enrolment at the Fernie Academy could further reduce the enrolment in SD5 schools in Fernie. On the other hand, the Academy is a small private business with all the risks associated with such a venture. In the event that the Academy closes at some point in the future, it is likely that most of the students would return to the public system.
Sparwood and Elkford Mining is the primary employer for both Sparwood and Elkford. The populations in these two communities have fluctuated in the past, largely in response to the vagaries of the mining industry. Currently, there is a positive outlook for the mining operations in the Elk Valley, although uncertainty remains regarding the number of families with children who will chose to live in Sparwood and Elkford. It is possible that Teck Resources could sponsor the provision of subsidized housing in Sparwood and Elkford as an incentive for mine workers to live in these communities with their families. The provision of such housing could result in more families with children living in Sparwood and Elkford. Sparwood is a bedroom community for Fernie — people working in Fernie find more affordable housing in Sparwood. The number of people commuting from Sparwood to Fernie could change in the future depending on the amount of affordable housing in Fernie.
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South Country The population in the South Country is relatively stable. There has been an increase in the number of recreational properties in this area with some very expensive houses being built on lakefront lots. Much of the new residential development in the South Country is for non-residents. Currently, students from the Tobacco Plains aboriginal community attend school in Eureka, Montana. It is possible that these 20-30 students could shift to attend SD5 schools, if the Government of Canada changes the rules for funding education.
3.3 APPROACH TO ENROLMENT FORECASTS SD5 receives annual updated enrolment forecasts for each school from Baragar Systems. Baragar’s base 15-year projection uses previous enrolments, childcare credit data, and other relevant information to generate enrolment projections that are characterized as ‘without local knowledge’. Baragar also provides a tool (Demographic Dynamics) that allows adjustments to all elements of the projection including births, migration, participation and housing. The last update was based on actual enrolment in SD5 schools as of September 2011. Our revised enrolment forecasts began with adjustments to births. We amended the birth assumptions for several schools to moderate the impact of the unusually high number of births in recent years. We also adjusted migration, participation and other factors as appropriate. We did not introduce new housing projects as part of our analysis of future enrolment. Our goal was to generate the best estimates of future enrolment for each school, each community, and for the school district as a whole. Our objective in developing these enrolment forecasts was to be as accurate as possible. We did not introduce any contingencies. As with our enrolment forecasts documented in the 2008 school district facilities plan, our enrolment forecasts are just as likely to prove to be too high as too low.
3.4 ENROLMENT FORECAST FOR SD5 The heavy red line in Figure 7 is our best estimate enrolment forecast for all SD5 schools. It calls for enrolments to stabilize, slowly increase for a few years, and then stabilize again towards the end of our 15-year planning horizon. The other forecasts presented in Figure 7 place our best enrolment forecast in context: ’10 MoE’ (the purple line) is the Ministry of Education’s enrolment forecast for the whole of SD5 as of 2010. It is slightly higher than our enrolment since it includes alternate and other enrolment, whereas our forecasts are for students in regular, community schools only. This most recent forecast from the Ministry indicated that overall enrolment in SD5 would be stable over the next few years.
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’12 DaS’ (the blue line) is Baragar’s ‘District As School’ enrolment forecast that treats enrolment in all SD5 schools and programs as if it were one school. This estimate is somewhat higher than our best forecast due to the adjustments we made to births and other factors. ’11 Baragar’ (the green line) is the base projection that Baragar provides for each school and characterized as ‘without local knowledge’. This forecast is the aggregate of all schools and is different from the ‘district as school’ projection because the impact of the assumptions made for each school has a somewhat different outcome than when the whole school district is examined together. We call this forecast ‘11’ since it is based on the actual enrolment in September 2011. ’11 BCS’ (the pink line) is the projected number of school age children living in SD5 communities from BC Statistics. The trajectory of this projection is parallel with the Ministry of Education’s enrolment forecast for SD5 because BC Statistics does the enrolment forecasts for the Ministry. The number of school age children is higher than the enrolment in SD5 schools since not all children aged 5-17 attend public schools.
Figure 7: Enrolment Forecasts for SD5
6,400
6,200
6,000 10 MoE
5,800 12 DaS 11 Baragar 5,600 11 BCS 5,400 12 Best 5,200
5,000 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Our best enrolment forecasts are more accurate than those prepared by BC Statistics, since ours are based on much more specific data for each catchment area. Our forecasting method also allows us to be more sensitive to births, migration, and other factors that affect individual communities within SD5.
3.5 ENROLMENT FORECASTS FOR CRANBROOK SCHOOLS As illustrated in Figure 8, enrolments at Cranbrook schools are likely to remain stable for a few years and then increase for the foreseeable future. There is the potential for enrolment at Cranbrook schools to be moderately higher than our
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best forecasts depending on several factors including birth rates and new housing starts.
Figure 8: Enrolment Forecast for Cranbrook Schools
3,800
3,700
3,600
3,500 11 Baragar
12 Best 3,400
3,300
3,200 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 9 indicates that enrolment at the senior schools in Cranbrook will continue to decline for a few years before beginning to increase in about 2017.
Figure 9: Enrolment Forecast for Cranbrook Middle and Secondary Schools
1,900
1,800
1,700 11 Baragar
1,600 12 Best
1,500
1,400 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 10 shows that the enrolment decreases of the senior schools in Cranbrook will be offset by increases in elementary school enrolments. These increases will taper off beginning about 2017.
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Figure 10: Enrolment Forecast for Cranbrook Elementary Schools
2,000
1,900
1,800 11 Baragar
1,700 12 Best
1,600
1,500 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figures 11-20 present our best enrolment forecasts (the heavy red line) for each Cranbrook school. The green lines in Figures 11-20 are the Baragar base forecast (without local knowledge). The blue line presented in some of the charts is the impact of modifying the births alone. The vertical axis in the charts is in increments of 25, the average number of students in a classroom.
Figure 11: Enrolment Forecast for Mount Baker Secondary
975
950
925
900 11 Baragar 875
850 12 Births
825 12 Best 800
775
750 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 12: Enrolment Forecast for Laurie Middle
475
450
425 11 Baragar 400 12 Births 375 12 Best 350
325
300 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 13: Enrolment Forecast for Parkland Middle
525
500
475 11 Baragar
12 Births 450 12 Best
425
400 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 14: Enrolment Forecast for Amy Woodland Elementary
375
350
325 11 Baragar 300
12 Births 275
250 12 Best
225
200 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 15: Enrolment Forecast for Highlands Elementary
300
275
11 Baragar 250
12 Births 225 12 Best
200
175 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 16: Enrolment Forecast for Gordon Terrace Elementary
350
325
11 Baragar 300
12 Births 275 12 Best
250
225 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 17: Enrolment Forecast for Kootenay Orchards Elementary
275
250
11 Baragar 225
12 Births 200 12 Best
175
150 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 18: Enrolment Forecast for Pinewood Elementary
200
175
11 Baragar 150 12 Births
125 12 Best
100
75 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 19: Enrolment Forecast for Steeples Elementary
250
225
11 Baragar 200
12 Births 175 12 Best
150
125 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 20: Enrolment Forecast for TM Roberts Elementary
425
400
375 11 Baragar
350 12 Best
325
300 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
3.6 ENROLMENT FORECASTS FOR ELK VALLEY SCHOOLS
Elkford As illustrated in Figure 21, enrolments at Elkford schools are likely to increase over the next 10 to 15 years. There is the potential for enrolment at Elkford schools to be moderately higher than our best forecasts, depending on several factors including migration levels.
Figure 21: Enrolment Forecast for Elkford Schools
525
500
475 11 Baragar
450 12 Best
425
400
375 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figures 22 and 23 present our best enrolment forecasts (the heavy red line) for each Elkford school. The green lines in Figures 22 and 23 are the Baragar base
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forecast (without local knowledge). The blue line is the impact of modifying the births alone.
Figure 22: Enrolment Forecast for Elkford Secondary
250
225
11 Baragar 200
12 Best 175
150
125 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 23: Enrolment Forecast for Rocky Mountain Elementary
325
300 11 Baragar
275 12 Births
250 12 Best
225
200 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Sparwood As illustrated in Figure 24, enrolments at Sparwood schools are likely to increase over the next 12 years and then taper off. There is the potential for enrolment at Sparwood schools to be moderately higher than our best forecasts depending on several factors including migration levels.
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Figure 24: Enrolment Forecast for Sparwood Schools
725
700
11 Baragar 675
12 Best 650
625
600 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figures 25 and 26 present our best enrolment forecasts (the heavy red line) for each Sparwood school.
Figure 25: Enrolment Forecast for Sparwood Secondary
350
325
11 Baragar 300
12 Best 275
250
225 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
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Figure 26: Enrolment Forecast for FJ Mitchell Elementary
425
400 11 Baragar
375 12 Births
350 12 Best
325
300 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Fernie As illustrated in Figure 27, enrolments at Fernie schools are likely to increase over the next 15 years. There is the potential for enrolment at Fernie schools to be higher than our best forecasts depending on several factors including the fate of the private school.
Figure 27: Enrolment Forecast for Fernie Schools
1100 1050 1000 950
900 11 Baragar 850 800 12 Best 750 700 650 600 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figures 28 and 29 present our best enrolment forecasts (the heavy red line) for each Fernie school.
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Figure 28: Enrolment Forecast for Fernie Secondary
550
525
500 11 Baragar 475
450 12 Best 425
400
375
350
325 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Figure 29: Enrolment Forecast for Isabella Dicken Elementary
525 500 475 450 11 Baragar 425 400 12 Births 375 350 325 12 Best 300 275 250 225 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
South Country As illustrated in Figure 30, enrolment at the Jaffray Elementary-Secondary is likely to remain about the same for the foreseeable future.
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Figure 30: Enrolment Forecast for Jaffray Elementary-Secondary
250
225
200 11 Baragar
175 12 Best
150
125 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Appendix B presents the best enrolment forecasts for each SD5 school in tabular form. Appendix B also shows the subtotals of enrolment by community. We have noted the schools with French Immersion programs, since these schools will have more than the usual number of students attending from outside the school’s catchment area. We have excluded enrolment in alternate programs that are not part of schools since they do not have a direct bearing on the capacity utilization of individual schools. Enrolment in alternate programs counts as part of the assessment of overall capacity utilization for the school district as a whole.
3.7 COMMENTS ON THE ENROLMENT FORECASTS Our estimates of future enrolment are thorough, rational, and based on the best information available. However, they are forecasts and the future reality is likely to differ (if only by small amounts), especially as time goes on. As mentioned earlier, we have tried to develop the best estimates possible, so our forecasts are just as likely to be somewhat high as somewhat low. Our estimates are to some extent based on the premise that the future will be a continuation of the past. However, we also acknowledge that there are some specific uncertainties with SD5 that need to be monitored: The speed of implementation for residential developments in Cranbrook as well as the number of school aged children that live in these new houses. The strength and stability of the mining industry, since it is a sector that can be volatile depending on world markets and other factors. The potential for subsidized housing in Elkford, Sparwood and Fernie. The future of the private school in Fernie.
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Our approach to the development of a plan for the schools in each community has been based on the enrolment forecast, but with consideration of the uncertainties that could affect future enrolment in each community.
3.8 BASELINE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CAPACITY UTILIZATION Ministry of Education budget instructions specify that SD5 must attain 90% overall capacity utilization to be eligible for the funding of new space. Aiming to attain the 90% utilization target is a worthwhile goal for SD5 without considering the need for additional space, because it is important to minimize the ‘overhead’ costs associated with facilities to focus maximum resources on programs for student education. Appendix D-1 presents an analysis of baseline future capacity utilization without interventions such as new facilities, school closures, school consolidations, district program re-locations, or catchment area adjustments. Surpluses greater than 25 spaces are presented in red, whereas shortages greater than 25 spaces are shown in blue. Similarly, utilization levels of 90% or less are indicated in red. Figure 31 summarizes the anticipated capacity utilization for all SD5 schools. The chart shows a situation where the current utilization, while not ideal, is better than it was in 2007, the baseline for the 2008 long-range facilities plan. Figure 31 also shows that the anticipated enrolment increases will improve the overall capacity utilization for SD5 schools to over the 90% threshold within ten years. Rephrased, the 2012 estimate surplus of more than 1,000 spaces will be reduced by more than half to less than 500 surplus spaces in 2026.
Figure 31: Baseline Capacity Utilization for All SD5 Schools
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800 Capacity
5,600 91% Enrolment 5,400
5,200 83% 5,000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
As presented in Appendix D-1, by 2022 the SD5 elementary schools will have an overall capacity utilization of 96%, while the secondary and middle schools will have an overall utilization level of only 82%. When both levels are combined, the overall capacity utilization in ten years will average 91%.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 26
Compared with the situation at the time of the 2008 long-range facilities plan, there is no overall imperative to reduce the scale of surplus spaces. However, there are still space and facilities challenges in each community. Figure 32 illustrates that the capacity utilization of the schools in Cranbrook will increase from about 2015 to 2026. However, the slightly high utilization of 95% in ten years masks the challenges facing schools in Cranbrook. As shown in Appendix D-1, the secondary school and the elementary schools will both be at 100% utilization in 2022, while the middle schools will be operating at only 83%.
Figure 32: Baseline Capacity Utilization for Cranbrook Schools
3,800 3,750 3,700 3,650 3,600 Capacity 3,550 95% 3,500 3,450 Enrolment 3,400 3,350 3,300 3,250 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Figure 33 shows a continuation of the current low level of utilization when combining the data from both Elkford schools. However, as demonstrated in Appendix D-1, the elementary school is actually operating at somewhat over capacity, while the secondary school is only about half full. Conversely, Figure 34 shows that the schools in Sparwood will operate at or above capacity over the 15-year planning horizon. Again, however, the elementary school is well over capacity while the secondary is always at least somewhat under capacity.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 27
Figure 33: Baseline Capacity Utilization for Elkford Schools
650
600
550 Capacity
500 Enrolment
450 74%
400 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Figure 34: Baseline Capacity Utilization for Sparwood Schools
750
700
104% 650 Capacity
600 Enrolment
550
500 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Figure 35 and Appendix D-1 illustrate that the situation in Sparwood is repeated in Fernie, with the elementary school operating over capacity and the secondary operating with substantial surplus space. The questions regarding the future of the private school in Fernie (will it grow, will it stay the same, will it close) adds uncertainty to the planning for schools in Fernie. Figure 36 shows that the K-10 school in Jaffray will remain underutilized for the foreseeable future.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 28
Figure 35: Baseline Capacity Utilization for Fernie Schools
1,000
950
900
850 Capacity
800 84% Enrolment 750
700
650 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Figure 36: Baseline Capacity Utilization for Jaffray School
350
300
250 Capacity
200 Enrolment
150 62%
100 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 29
4. THE EMERGING STATUS QUO PLAN
4.1 KEY CHALLENGES Based on the guiding principles and SD5 priorities outlined in Section 1.2, we identified three key challenges for the school district facilities plan: Replace four aging facilities — Mount Baker Secondary, Amy Woodland Elementary, FJ Mitchell Elementary, and Isabella Dicken Elementary. Increase elementary capacity while maintaining or increasing overall capacity utilization levels. Upgrade several other facilities to modern levels of safety, comfort and functionality.
4.2 THE STATUS QUO PLAN The plan that we outline in this section addresses the key challenges without questioning the existing service delivery model. This means that we have retained the existing number of schools with the existing grade configuration in each SD5 community. Section 5 presents some alternatives to the Status Quo that have some merit and may warrant further consideration by SD5 management. We present the emerging Status Quo plan in the context of each SD5 community. Appendix D-2 presents a capacity utilization profile of SD5 schools with all of the proposed facilities changes outlined in this section having been implemented. This utilization analysis shows that, if the four new schools and two expanded schools (Pinewood Elementary and Rocky Mountain Elementary) were implemented over the next 15 years, overall capacity utilization would be substantially reduced compared with the Baseline analysis outlined in Appendix D-1. Overall utilization in 2022 with the Status Quo plan would be 85% instead of 91% in the Baseline utilization profile.
4.3 THE STATUS QUO PLAN IN ELKFORD The two facilities projects for Elkford in a Status Quo plan are: Replace Elkford Secondary with a new, smaller school in the long term. We have not shown any change to the capacity in the utilization profile presented in Appendix D-2, since it is unlikely that this facility would be approved for replacement within the foreseeable future. Expand and renovate Rocky Mountain Elementary in the medium term. In the interim, accommodate overutilization of the elementary by either shifting a grade from the elementary to the secondary or installing a portable at the elementary. Although we have shown Rocky Mountain Elementary with an additional classroom in Appendix D-2, it is unlikely that such an expansion would be approved with space available in the nearby Elkford Secondary.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 30
Neither of these major capital projects would be a top priority for a SD5 capital budget submission in the near future.
4.4 THE STATUS QUO PLAN IN SPARWOOD The key facility project for Sparwood in a Status Quo plan is to replace FJ Mitchell Elementary with a new, larger school as soon as possible. In the interim, accommodate overutilization of the elementary by either shifting a grade from the elementary to the secondary or installing a portable at the elementary. The replacement of FJ Mitchell Elementary is one of four top priorities for major capital projects in SD5’s capital budget submission. Since Sparwood Secondary is relatively well utilized and the condition rating for FJ Mitchell Elementary is quite poor, there is a chance that this project will be approved, but probably not for several years. A thorough study would need to demonstrate that replacement is more cost effective than renovation.
4.5 THE STATUS QUO PLAN IN FERNIE The key facility project for Fernie in a Status Quo plan is to replace Isabella Dicken Elementary with a new, larger school as soon as possible. In the interim, accommodate overutilization of the elementary by either shifting a grade from the elementary to the secondary or installing a portable at the elementary. The replacement of Isabella Dicken Elementary is one of four top priorities for major capital projects in SD5’s capital budget submission. Given that Fernie Secondary is underutilized and the condition rating for Isabella Dicken Elementary is not as poor as many other schools, this project is unlikely to be approved for many years. Additional enrolment pressure, such as increased enrolment from a closed private school, could change the prospects for this project.
4.6 THE STATUS QUO PLAN IN JAFFRAY The Status Quo plan for Jaffray is to replace the existing facility with a smaller school at some point in the long-term future. This is not a priority project for SD5 to include in its annual capital budget submission.
4.7 THE STATUS QUO PLAN IN CRANBROOK The two facilities projects for the secondary and middle schools in Cranbrook in the Status Quo plan are: Replace Mount Baker Secondary with a new, 1,000 space school as soon as possible. This plan has been well developed by SD5 and is ready to move to the next step in implementation pending approval from the Ministry of Education.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 31
Replace Laurie Middle with a new, smaller school in the long term. We have not shown any change to the capacity in the utilization profile presented in Appendix D-2, since it is unlikely that this facility would be approved for replacement within the foreseeable future. The replacement of Mount Baker Secondary is one of four top priorities for major capital projects in SD5’s capital budget submission. The school district has completed studies that demonstrate that it is more cost effective to replace than renovate the existing facility. The likelihood that this major capital project will be approved in the near future depends primarily on the condition of the existing facility relative to other schools in the province. Until such time as Laurie Middle can be replaced with a smaller facility, it would be advantageous for SD5 to find ways to increase the utilization of Parkland Middle. This could involve using part of the facility for non-school functions. Address the possible future overutilization of Mount Baker Secondary by retaining some students at the middle schools, or installing portables at the secondary. The Status Quo plan would see several facilities projects for elementary schools in Cranbrook: Replace Amy Woodland, possibly with a larger school, in the medium term. Expand and renovate Pinewood in the medium term. Upgrade Highlands and Steeples in the medium term. Upgrade Kootenay Orchards, Gordon Terrace, and TM Roberts in the long term. In an effort to balance utilization, SD5 will need to adjust catchment boundaries and modify district programs to shift students among the elementary schools in Cranbrook. If schools become overutilized before additional capacity is approved, SD5 should consider shifting a grade to the middle schools or installing portables at elementary schools.
4.8 COMMENTS ON THE STATUS QUO PLAN If the Status Quo plan were implemented by 2022, SD5 facilities would have changed in the following ways: The existing poor facilities at Mount Baker, Amy Woodland, Isabella Dicken, and FJ Mitchell would have been replaced with safe, energy efficient, functional and attractive buildings that would require less maintenance investment for many years. Pinewood and Rocky Mountain would have been expanded and renovated to provide more functional and longer lasting facilities. The overall quality of SD5 school facilities would have been significantly improved for use by students, staff and the community. More elementary schools would be near optimal size for efficient and effective operation.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 32
On the other hand, the overall capacity utilization of SD5 schools would have been reduced from 91% to 85%. There would be 981 surplus spaces across the district instead of 567 surplus spaces if none of the changes outlined in the Status Quo plan were made between now and 2022 (reference Appendices D-2 and D-1). This reduction in capacity utilization (or increase in surplus spaces) highlights the key shortcoming of the Status Quo plan — it has a low likelihood of success. The proposed major capital projects are based primarily, if not exclusively, on the need to replace existing poor facilities. This means that each existing facility will be compared to all other schools in British Columbia to establish the relative priorities of all proposed replacement or rejuvenation projects. In addition, the urgency of the elementary projects where more space is required may be reduced due to the surplus capacity available in nearby middle or secondary schools. Again, support for these projects from Ministry of Education officials may be elusive.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 33
5. ALTERNATIVES TO CONSIDER
5.1 FRAMEWORK FOR ALTERNATIVES During our presentation to the SD5 Board of Education in April, we stated that the Status Quo plan was the strategy for upgrading SD5 that evolved naturally from the existing situation and the direction the school district had been following for several years. However, we cautioned that SD5 would likely need to wait several years for it’s top priority major capital projects to be approved. In this context, we suggested that SD5 consider some alternative approaches for each of school district’s five communities. Essentially, we suggested that SD5 examine the benefits of adopting a junior middle (K-5 | 6-8 | 9-12) grade configuration in Cranbrook. We also suggested that SD5 examine the benefits of having K-12 schools in the Elk Valley communities. The K-12 schools could be operated with three programs for elementary, middle and secondary students. In this way, all schools in SD5 could be based on a consistent educational framework with defined programs for elementary, middle and secondary students. Appendix D-3 presents the capacity utilization profile for SD5 schools if each of the alternative plans were to be implemented. The alternative plans should be seen as a smorgasbord of individual possibilities, not a set menu. SD5 can choose the alternative facilities plan for one or two communities without necessarily affecting the Status Quo plan for the remaining communities. The options of a junior middle grade configuration and K-12 schools were outlined in Section 4.2 of the 2008 long-range facilities plan. In addition, at the request of the SD5 Trustees during the April presentation, we prepared a discussion paper on the relative merits of various grade configurations. This paper is presented in Appendix C. Finally, also at the request of the Trustees at the April session, we were asked to explore the potential of having two 8-12 secondary schools in Cranbrook (Mount Baker and Parkland) and converting the elementary schools to K-7.
5.2 ALTERNATIVES FOR ELKFORD An alternative approach for Elkford would be as follows: In long term, when both Elkford school facilities are nearing end of their useful life, replace both schools with a single, 500-space K-12 school. This new school could be specifically designed to support elementary, middle and secondary programs within a single school. Dispose of surplus property and use the proceeds as part of a business case for the new K-12 school. A single K-12 school would be less expensive to implement. Operating costs would also be slightly less for one larger school than for two smaller facilities. In the interim, shift Grade 6 up to Elkford Secondary and make the secondary into a combination of middle and secondary.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 34
The shift of Grade 6 to Elkford Secondary would make the transition to a consistent elementary/middle/secondary program easier when the K-12 school was built in Elkford. A K-12 school would allow for fluctuations in the size of each grade to be accommodated within one school facility. Figure 37 is a GeoSchool map that shows the distribution of K-12 students in Elkford. The map also illustrates that the elementary and secondary schools share a site. In this context, the amount of surplus land that could be disposed of is uncertain and would depend on several factors, including the specific site plan for a new K-12 school.
Figure 37: Students and Schools in Elkford
Rocky Mountain
Elkford
Since the elementary and secondary schools share a site, community resistance to the proposal to have a K-12 school in Elkford would be focused on the merits of having all ages in a single facility, and not on any changes to the location of the elementary school.
5.3 ALTERNATIVES FOR SPARWOOD An alternative approach for Sparwood would be as follows: In the medium term, expand (350 spaces to 725 spaces) and renovate the new (built in 2008) Sparwood Secondary to accommodate students in Kindergarten to Grade 12. Close FJ Mitchell Elementary, thereby avoiding the full cost of replacing the aging facility. Expansion of Sparwood Secondary likely would be less expensive that the replacement of the FJ Mitchell Elementary. Dispose of surplus property and use the proceeds as part of a business case for the new K-12 school. Operating costs also would be somewhat less for one larger school than for two smaller facilities.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 35
In the interim, shift Grade 6 up to Sparwood Secondary and make the secondary into a combination of middle and secondary. The business case for expanding Sparwood Secondary would make the net cost of the project less than the cost of replacing FJ Mitchell Elementary, and may allow the project to be supported more readily than a simple elementary replacement. Figure 38 is a GeoSchool map that shows the distribution of K-12 students in Sparwood. The map also illustrates that the elementary and secondary schools share a site. In this context, the amount of surplus land that for disposal is uncertain and would depend on several factors, including the specific site plan for an expanded Sparwood Secondary to serve K-12 students.
Figure 38: Students and Schools in Sparwood
Sparwood
FJ Mitchell
Since the elementary and secondary schools share a site, community resistance to the proposal to have a K-12 school in Sparwood would be focused on the merits of having all ages in a single facility, and not on any changes to the location of the elementary school.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 36
5.4 ALTERNATIVES FOR FERNIE An alternative approach for Fernie would be as follows: In the long term, expand (675 spaces to 925 spaces) and renovate the relatively new (built in 1998) Fernie Secondary to accommodate K-12 students. The feasibility of completing such an expansion on the existing site would need to be confirmed. It is possible that additional property would need to be obtained. Close Isabella Dicken Elementary, thereby avoiding the full cost of replacing the aging facility. Expansion of Fernie Secondary likely would be less expensive that the replacement of the Isabella Dicken Elementary. Dispose of surplus property and use the proceeds as part of a business case for the new K-12 school. Operating costs would also be somewhat less for one larger school than for two smaller facilities. As with Sparwood, the more attractive business case for expanding Fernie Secondary may allow the project to be supported earlier than would a simple elementary replacement project. In the interim, shift Grade 6 up to Fernie Secondary and make the secondary into a combination of middle and secondary. The K-12 school may be less attractive for Fernie than for Sparwood and Elkford since the potential for greater enrolment in Fernie could make a single K-12 school quite large. The potential for a sudden increase in enrolment is more likely due to the possibility of the private school closing. Any plans for converting Fernie Secondary into a K-12 school must consider the possibility of further expansion in the future. Figure 39 is a GeoSchool map that shows the distribution of K-12 students in Fernie. The map also illustrates that, while they have separate sites, the elementary and secondary schools are close together. Since the elementary and secondary schools are very close, community resistance to the proposal to have a K-12 school in Fernie likely would be focused on the merits of having all ages in a single facility, and not on any changes to the location of the elementary school.
5.5 ALTERNATIVES FOR JAFFRAY To be consistent with the adoption of a junior middle program model, the existing school in Jaffray should be replaced with a new K-9 school. With a nominal capacity of 200 spaces, this replacement school would be smaller than the existing facility. Another alternative for Jaffray would be to have a school that served students in K-5 only, with middle and secondary students attending school in Fernie. There is no urgency to replace the existing Jaffray Elementary-Secondary. Either of these replacement schools would be implemented in the long term.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 37
Figure 39: Students and Schools in Fernie
Isabella Dicken Fernie
5.6 ALTERNATIVES FOR CRANBROOK
Shift to Junior Middle Model The first alternative for Cranbrook is to shift the grade configuration from its existing senior middle model (K-6 | 7-9 | 10-12) to a junior middle model (K-5 | 6-8 | 9-12). The facilities implications for this shift are as follows: Replace Mount Baker Secondary with a 1,250 capacity secondary to serve Grades 9-12. This school would justify more options than the smaller school planned to serve Grades 10-12. It would also cost slightly less to build per student space provided. Shift middle schools to serve Grades 6-8 and elementary schools to serve K-5. Close Amy Woodland Elementary, avoiding the cost of replacement. The shift of Grade 6 into the middle schools reduces the enrolment in elementary schools and allows the closure of one of the elementary schools. Dispose of surplus property with proceeds as part of a business case for an expanded Mount Baker Secondary. Expand and renovate Pinewood Elementary. This school would then become more cost effective to operate. Replace Laurie with a new, smaller school on the same site. The reduced number of spaces in middle schools would increase the capacity utilization at this level. Upgrade the remaining five elementary school facilities.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 38
Figure 40 is a GeoSchool map that shows the distribution of elementary students in Cranbrook. The red lines are the existing catchment area boundaries for each elementary school. The map also illustrates that there are several elementary schools that could accommodate students from parts of the catchment area for Amy Woodland Elementary after that school is closed. As outlined in Appendix D-3, once the transition to the junior middle model was complete, Cranbrook schools would be operating at 95% capacity utilization or better. It would cost less to operate the schools than with the Status Quo plan, in part, because there would be one fewer school. SD5 will need to evaluate the relative merits of the new junior middle school model compared with the existing senior middle school model. As outlined in Appendix B, the consensus may be that the junior middle model is slightly superior educationally and developmentally. Many observers have found that having four grades in secondary helps students with the transition into secondary school.
Figure 40: Students and Schools in Cranbrook
Steeples
Pinewood Mount Baker
Laurie
TM Roberts Amy Woodland Highlands
Parkland Gordon Terrace Kootenay Orchards
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 39
Shift to Traditional Grade Configuration Appendix D-4 presents a capacity utilization profile for another alternative considered for Cranbrook — the shift to a traditional elementary/secondary grade configuration (K-7 | 8-12). The shift to this traditional grade configuration would be accomplished as follows: Convert Mount Baker Secondary to serve Grades 8-12. This could probably be implemented fairly soon with the existing school facility. However, in Appendix D-4, we have shown this as a new replacement school with 900 spaces. Convert Parkland Middle into a secondary school to serve Grades 8-12. Any need for extensive renovations could wait until it is expanded to 700 spaces at some point in the future. Convert Laurie Middle back to a K-7 elementary school (the facility began its life as an elementary). This may involve some renovations. Close Amy Woodland Elementary, avoiding the cost of replacement. As illustrated in Figure 40, Laurie (now an elementary school) is well located to serve students in the existing Amy Woodland catchment. Convert the remaining elementary schools to serve K-7. Note in Appendix D-4 that we modified the operational capacities of these schools to reflect the new grade span. Expand and renovate Pinewood Elementary in the medium term. This school would then become more cost effective to operate. Upgrade the remaining five elementary school facilities. As outlined in Appendix D-4, implementation of the traditional grade configuration could result in all Cranbrook schools operating at full utilization. The elementary schools are larger on average than with the Status Quo plan. This would result in lower operating costs. On the other hand, the newly converted Parkland Secondary is smaller than ideal for a secondary school, even after it were expanded in the future. In addition, supporters of the middle school concept would be disappointed to see the middle school grade configuration dismantled.
5.7 MERITS OF THE ALTERNATIVES The primary reason for adopting anything other than the proposed major capital projects outlined in the Status Quo facilities plan would be that the alternative plan would meet the following key challenges better or faster: Replace four aging facilities — Mount Baker Secondary, Amy Woodland Elementary, FJ Mitchell Elementary and Isabella Dicken Elementary. Increase elementary capacity while maintaining or increasing overall capacity utilization levels. Upgrade several other facilities to modern levels of safety, comfort and functionality.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 40
Replace Mount Baker Secondary Sooner The following summarizes the options for replacing Mount Baker Secondary: The Status Quo plan proposes to replace the existing 900-space school with a new 1,000-space facility. Obtaining Ministry of Education support for the project hinges on the condition of the existing facility relative to other replacement projects elsewhere in BC. The alternative plan associated with the junior middle model proposes to replace the existing 900-space school with a new 1,250-space facility — a project that could be as much as 25% more expensive than the Status Quo plan for this school. The business plan for this proposal would offset some of the cost of the project with the cost avoidance and sale of surplus property that would be associated with the Amy Woodland closure. The alternative plan associated with the traditional grade configuration proposes to replace the existing 900-space school with a new 900-space facility — a project that could be as much as 10% less expensive than the Status Quo project. As with the first alternative plan, the business case for this proposal would offset some of the cost of the project with the cost avoidance and sale of surplus property that would be associated with the Amy Woodland closure. The need to expand Parkland at some point in the future would effectively increase the net cost of this approach. It is difficult to know if either of the alternative plans would increase the likelihood that a proposal to replace Mount Baker Secondary would be supported, or supported sooner, by the Ministry of Education. SD5 has already spent considerable effort on formulating the Status Quo proposal. Any change to the approach may have the effect of ‘putting the project at the end of the queue’. The alternative approaches both promise a more cost effective set of school facilities for Cranbrook. Advancing either of the alternative plans will necessitate making comprehensive business cases for all schools in the community. One key benefit of both alternative plans is the cost avoidance associated with not having to replace the aging Amy Woodland Elementary, in addition to the funds that may be recovered from the sale of the Amy Woodland site. Unfortunately, adopting the junior middle model will require that the new secondary is noticeably bigger and more expensive than the Status Quo plan. This will put extra onus on the overall business case to be very compelling financially and operationally. Ironically, if the goal is to replace Mount Baker Secondary, the alternative involving the traditional grade configuration may be the least effective since it requires no expansion, simply replacement at the same capacity.
Replace Amy Woodland Elementary Sooner If the goal is to just replace Amy Woodland Elementary, then the Status Quo plan is the only choice, since both of the alternative plans for Cranbrook would close Amy Woodland Elementary instead of replacing it. However, both of the
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 41
alternative plans place students from the Amy Woodland catchment into better facilities and, thereby, eliminate the deficient facility. The VFA building condition assessment rated Amy Woodland Elementary the lowest of any SD5 school. In this context, it is the facility replacement most likely to be supported by the Ministry of Education. However, as with Mount Baker, obtaining Ministry of Education support for the project hinges on the condition of the existing facility relative to other replacement projects elsewhere in BC. Closure would be much less expensive than replacement, however, the overall cost of the plan depends on a comprehensive analysis of net cost of the Status Quo plan compared with the two alternatives. As a result, the two alternative plans are only superior to the Status Quo plan for Amy Woodland Elementary to the extent that a comprehensive analysis for all the schools in Cranbrook demonstrates that one of the alternate plans is clearly more cost effective than the Status Quo plan.
Replace FJ Mitchell Elementary Sooner The VFA condition assessment for FJ Mitchell Elementary is almost as low as for Amy Woodland Elementary. Again, obtaining Ministry of Education support for the project hinges on the condition of the existing facility relative to other replacement projects elsewhere in BC. The adjacent Sparwood Secondary is somewhat underutilized so that may diminish the requirement to provide more elementary space in the community. The alternative plan to expand Sparwood Secondary is appealing when compared with the Status Quo plan in at least three ways: The conversion of Sparwood Secondary into a K-12 school promises to be less expensive than the construction of a new replacement elementary school. This promise of reduced implementation costs would need to be demonstrated with a specific design and cost analysis. The consolidation of all grades into a single school may allow a portion of the site to be sold as surplus property. The proceeds from this sale could help offset the cost to expand Sparwood Secondary. Again, the potential for surplus site would need to be studied. The new K-12 school would be more robust in responding to fluctuations in enrolment from one grade to another. A single school also would be slightly less expensive to operate than two separate schools.
Replace Isabella Dicken Elementary Sooner As demonstrated in Figure 2, VFA’s condition assessment for Isabella Dicken Elementary is not as low as four other SD5 schools even though it is one of the school district’s four top priorities for replacement. This fact further reduces the likelihood that a proposed project to replace Isabella Dicken Elementary would receive Ministry of Education support in the near future, especially when considering support for the project hinges on the condition of the existing facility relative to other replacement projects elsewhere in BC. In addition, the significant underutilization of the nearby Fernie Secondary diminishes any
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 42
argument for a larger replacement school based on anticipated increases in elementary enrolment. The alternative plan to expand Fernie Secondary is appealing when compared with the Status Quo plan in at least three ways: The conversion of Fernie Secondary into a K-12 school promises to be less expensive than the construction of a new replacement elementary school. This potential for reduced implementation costs would need to be demonstrated with a specific site plan (including an assessment of whether additional property would be required), building design and cost analysis. The consolidation of all grades into a single school would allow the existing Isabella Dicken Elementary site to be sold as surplus property. The proceeds from this sale could help offset the cost to expand Fernie Secondary. The new K-12 school would be more robust in responding to fluctuations in enrolment from one grade to another. A single school also would be slightly less expensive to operate than two separate schools.
Increase Elementary Capacity Beyond the replacement of four aging school facilities, Section 4.1 identified that another key challenge was to increase elementary capacity while maintaining or increasing overall capacity utilization levels. This objective for the district facilities plan recognized that addition elementary space was going to be required in Fernie, Sparwood, Elkford and Cranbrook. The Status Quo plan supplies additional elementary space in each of the four communities. However, at the same time, the new and larger elementary schools result in lower capacity utilization levels as illustrated in Figure 41 (reference Appendix D-1 and Appendix D-2 for details).
Figure 41: Capacity Utilization at 2022
Upgrade Other Facilities The final key challenge identified for the school district facilities plan was to upgrade several other facilities to modern levels of safety, comfort and functionality. Both the Status Quo plan and the alternative plans call for upgrading to all SD5 school facilities so the only comparison would be to determine which plan has the greater likelihood for earlier success. In this respect, the alternative plans may be superior to the Status Quo plan.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 43
Additional Comments About the Alternative Plans As indicated on Appendix D-2 and Appendix D-3, the alternative plans would result in 13 instead of 17 schools. This would reduce operating costs for SD5 schools. The transition to a junior middle grade configuration needs to be perceived as a positive move educationally by SD5 management. It would not be advisable to make the transition to a new grade configuration without support from the majority of SD5 management and teachers. The same comment would apply to the possible transition to the traditional elementary/secondary configuration in Cranbrook.
School District Facilities Plan, 2012 Update, School District 5, October 2012 44
APPENDIXA
APRIL 2012 PRESENTATION TO SD5 BOARD Elkford Contents of presentation • Guiding principles • Emerging status quo plan Presentation to the School capacities Discussion of status quo SD5 Board of • • Education plan 2012 04 30 Building condition Update to SD5 • Sparwood District Facilities Plan Alternatives to consider • Population projections • Discussion of alternatives • Community prospects • Direction requested • Approach to enrolment • forecasts • Need for public Cranbrook Fernie consultation • Enrolment forecast for SD5 Jaffray • Enrolment forecasts for each community Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan • Baseline capacity 2 utilization
Guiding principles School capacities with FDK
• Strive to provide K-12 education in each SD5 community Rocky Mountain Elkford Presentation to the Strive to have schools located close to where students live Presentation to the FJ Mitchell SD5 Board of • SD5 Board of Education Education Sparwood Isabella Dicken 2012 04 30 • While maintaining educational standards 2012 04 30 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 Fernie District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan Jaffray • Strive to improve the condition of SD5 school facilities TM Roberts Steeples • Set capital priorities to improve overall quality of learning environment Pinewood Kootenay Orchards Highlands • Strive to have schools with optimal capacities, primarily to Gordon Terrace maximize educational opportunities Amy Woodland Parkland Laurie • Elementary 350 ideal, Middle 450 ideal, Secondary 900 minimum Mount Baker • Strive to maintain the senior middle grade configuration 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 • K-6 | 7-9 | 10-12 or equivalent (K-6 | 7-12) • Total capacity is 6,232 spaces, including kindergarten • Consider reducing surplus space in order to maximize Updated for additions and other changes, deducted StrongStart resources available for increasing educational opportunities • • Averages of 19 for K, 21 for Grades 1-3 and 25 for Grades 4-12 3 4 School capacities with FDK Capacity Utilization in 2011 • Capacity utilization in 2007 was 78% Presentation to the Presentation to the SD5 Board of SD5 Board of Education Education • Improvement primarily due 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 to closure of 3 elementary District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan schools (Muriel Baxter, Mountain View and Grasmere) • Reassessed capacities to include kindergarten • Capacity utilization still not ideal
5 6
Building condition Building condition
Amy Woodland FJ Mitchell Presentation to the Presentation to the SD5 Board of Isabella Dicken SD5 Board of Education Jaffray D Education 2012 04 30 Mount Baker 2012 04 30 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan Steeples District Facilities Plan Highlands Elkford Laurie C Pinewood Kootenay Orchards TM Roberts Gordon Terrace B Rocky Mountain Fernie Parkland Sparwood A VFA replacement index 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
• Upgrading priorities are Mount Baker, Amy Woodland, FJ Mitchell and Isabella Dicken 7 8 Population projections Population projections
45,000 8,800 9,000 670
Presentation to the Presentation to the SD5 Board of 44,000 8,200 SD5 Board of Education Education 8,000 600 2012 04 30 43,000 7,600 2012 04 30 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 P32-5-17 District Facilities Plan P32-Total District Facilities Plan 7,000 530 42,000 7,000 P36-5-17 P36-Total 41,000 6,400 6,000 460
P32-5-17 P32-Births 40,000 5,800 5,000 390 P36-5-17 P36-Births 39,000 5,200
4,000 320 38,000 4,600
37,000 4,000 3,000 250 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
• BC Statistics estimate total population increase for 15 years before tapering off • BC Statistics show birth lower from 2002 to 2007, then bounce in 2008 to 2011 • School aged population stabilizing after period of decline • Question is how many births in the next 10-15 years? 9 10
Prospects for each community Approach to enrolment forecasts • Sparwood and Elkford • South Country • Baragar provides analytical tool, previous data and initial projection Presentation to the Mining currently positive but Stable or slight decline in Presentation to the SD5 Board of • • SD5 Board of Education intrinsically volatile resident population Education Baragar base forecast is ‘without local knowledge’ 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 • Update to SD5 Uncertainty around number of Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan • • Cranbrook District Facilities Plan • Uses previous enrolments as well as Family Allowance data families who will choose to live in Elk Valley • Stable economic outlook but • Demographic Dynamics allows adjustments to all elements including births, also tied to mining migration, participation and housing • Fernie • Trend towards more residential • No housing projects included in our revised forecasts • Continues to be influenced by development in established volatile mining industry neighbourhoods • Our revised forecasts began with adjustments to births • Tourism is increasing but also Whole school district • Tended to moderate impact of recently high years for numbers of births volatile • • Unusually low number of births • Provide interim enrolment forecast for most elementary schools • Recent reductions in housing followed by jump in births prices have encouraged • We also adjusted migration, participation and other factors families • No major increases in housing foreseen over next several • Consider our forecasts as best estimates • Private school is major factor years • Likely to be more accurate when aggregated 11 12 Enrolment forecasts for SD5 Enrolment forecasts for Elkford • Elkford enrolments 6,400 Elkford Community 525 likely to increase over
Presentation to the Presentation to the next 10-15 years 500 SD5 Board of 6,200 SD5 Board of Education Education 11 Baragar 475 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 • Potential for greater Update to SD5 Update to SD5 increase depending District Facilities Plan 6,000 10 MoE District Facilities Plan 450 12 Best on several factors 425 5,800 12 DaS 400 11 Baragar 5,600 375 11 BCS 350 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 5,400 12 Best 5,200 Elkford Secondary Rocky Mountain Elementary 250 325
300 5,000 225 11 Baragar 11 Baragar
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 200 275 12 Births 12 Best
12 Best 175 250
• MoE is Ministry of Education, DaS is District as School, BCS is BC Statistics 150 225
125 200 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 13 • Enrolment to stabilize, then slowly increase, then stabilize again 14
Enrolment forecasts for Sparwood Enrolment forecasts for Fernie
Sparwood enrolments Fernie enrolments Sparwood Community • Fernie Community • 725 likely to increase over 1,100 likely to increase over
Presentation to the next 12 years, then Presentation to the 1,050 next 15 years SD5 Board of 700 SD5 Board of 11 Baragar taper off 1,000 Education 11 Baragar Education 12 Best Potential for greater 2012 04 30 675 2012 04 30 950 • Update to SD5 Potential for greater Update to SD5 900 increase depending District Facilities Plan • District Facilities Plan 650 12 Best increase depending 850 on several factors, 800 625 on several factors including fate of 750 private school 600 700 650 575 600 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Sparwood Secondary FJ Mitchell Elementary Fernie Secondary Isabella Dicken Elementary 350 450 550 550 525 525 425 11 Baragar 500 11 Baragar 325 11 Baragar 11 Baragar 500 475 12 Best 12 Births 400 475 450 300 12 Births 425 12 Best 12 Best 450 400 375 12 Best 425 375 275 350 350 400 325 300 250 375 325 275 350 250 225 300 325 225 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 15 16 Enrolment forecasts for Jaffray Enrolment forecasts for Cranbrook
Jaffray enrolments Cranbrook Jaffary Elementary-Secondary • Cranbrook Community • 250 likely to remain about 3,900 enrolments likely to the same over the remain stable for a Presentation to the Presentation to the 3,800 SD5 Board of SD5 Board of Education 225 foreseeable future Education few years and then 3,700 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 increase for the Update to SD5 200 11 Baragar Update to SD5 3,600 foreseeable future District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan 11 Baragar 3,500 12 Best 175 3,400 12 Best • Potential for 3,300 moderately higher 150 3,200 enrolments depending on several 125 3,100 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 factors
Cranbrook Middle/Secondary Cranbrook Elementaries 1,900 2,000
1,800 1,900
1,700 11 Baragar 1,800 11 Baragar
12 Best 1,600 1,700 12 Best
1,500 1,600
1,400 1,500 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 17 18
Enrolment forecasts for Cranbrook Enrolment forecasts for Cranbrook
Middle and secondary Mount Baker Secondary • Amy Woodland Elementary Highlands Elementary 375 300 975 enrolments to 350 Presentation to the 950 decline, then Presentation to the 275 325 SD5 Board of SD5 Board of 11 Baragar 11 Baragar Education 925 stabilize, then Education 300 250 12 Births 2012 04 30 900 11 Baragar increase 2012 04 30 12 Births 275 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 225 12 Best District Facilities Plan 875 District Facilities Plan 12 Best 12 Births 250 200 850 225
825 12 Best 200 175 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 800 775
750 Gordon Terrace Elementary Kootenay Orchards Elementary 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 350 275
325 250 Laurie Middle Parkland Middle 11 Baragar 11 Baragar 475 525 300 225 12 Births 450 12 Births 500 275 200 12 Best 425 12 Best 11 Baragar 11 Baragar 475 400 250 175 12 Births 12 Births 375 450 12 Best 12 Best 225 150 350 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 425 325
300 400 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 19 20 Enrolment forecasts for Cranbrook Baseline capacity utilization
Pinewood Elementary Steeples Elementary 200 250
Presentation to the 175 225 Presentation to the SD5 Board of 11 Baragar 11 Baragar SD5 Board of Education 150 200 Education 12 Births 2012 04 30 12 Births 2012 04 30
Update to SD5 125 12 Best 175 12 Best Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan
100 150
75 125 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
TM Roberts Elementary 425 • Elementary enrolments likely to 400 increase over 5 years, then stabilize
375 11 Baragar Cranbrook Elementaries 2,000 350 12 Best
1,900 325
1,800 300 11 Baragar 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 1,700 12 Best
1,600
1,500 21 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 22
Baseline capacity utilization Baseline capacity utilization
Elkford Capacity Utilization Sparwood Capacity Utilization 650 700 Total SD5 Capacity Utilization 600 Presentation to the 6,400 Presentation to the 104% SD5 Board of SD5 Board of 550 650 Education Education Capacity Capacity 500 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 6,200 12 Best 12 Best Update to SD5 Update to SD5 450 600 District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan 74% 6,000 400
Capacity 350 550 5,800 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
5,600 91% Fernie Capacity Utilization Jaffary Capacity Utilization 12 Best 1,000 300 950
5,400 900 250
850 Capacity Capacity 5,200 800 84% 200 12 Best 750 12 Best 83% 62% 5,000 700 150 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 650 600 100 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
• Secondary/middle — 82% Elementary schools — 96% 23 • 24 Baseline capacity utilization Emerging status quo plan
Cranbrook Capacity Utilization • Key challenges • Sparwood 3,800 Replace Mount Baker, Presentation to the Presentation to the • • Replace elementary with larger SD5 Board of 3,750 SD5 Board of Education Education Amy Woodland, FJ Mitchell and school as soon as possible 2012 04 30 3,700 2012 04 30 Isabella Dicken Update to SD5 3,650 Update to SD5 In interim, either shift grade to District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan Increase elementary capacity • 3,600 • secondary or install portable at while maintaining or increasing 3,550 elementary 95% Capacity utilization 3,500 3,450 Fernie 12 Best • Upgrade several other facilities • 3,400 Replace elementary with larger 3,350 • Elkford school as soon as possible 3,300 • Replace secondary with smaller 3,250 • In interim, either shift grade to school in medium term • 3,200 secondary or install portable at 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 • Expand and renovate elementary elementary in medium term • Mount Baker — 100% • In interim, either shift grade to • Jaffray secondary or install portable at • Middle schools — 83% • Replace with smaller school in elementary long term Elementary schools — 100% 25 • 26
Emerging status quo plan Utilization with status quo plan • Cranbrook senior schools • Upgrade KO, Gordon Terrace and TM Roberts in long term Presentation to the • Replace Mount Baker with new Presentation to the SD5 Board of SD5 Board of Education 1,000 capacity secondary • Shift students among schools Education 2012 04 30 to optimize utilization 2012 04 30 Update to SD5 • Replace Laurie with smaller Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan school in long term • Either shift grade to middle District Facilities Plan schools or install portables at Find ways to increase the • elementary schools (and utilization of Parkland perhaps at MBSS) if needed to address overutilization • Cranbrook elementary schools • Replace Amy Woodland, possibly with a larger school, in medium term • Expand and renovate Pinewood in medium term • Upgrade Highlands and Steeples in medium term 27 28 Only showing high priority projects Discussion of status quo plan Alternatives to consider • Results of status quo plan focusing on medium term • Framework • Sparwood
Presentation to the Capacity utilization reduced from 91% to 85% Presentation to the • Consider a junior middle (6-8) In medium term, expand and SD5 Board of • SD5 Board of • Education Education grade configuration in renovate new secondary to 2012 04 30 • Replaced Mount Baker, Amy Woodland, Isabella Dicken and FJ Mitchell 2012 04 30 Cranbrook accommodate K-12 Update to SD5 Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan • Expanded Pinewood and Rocky Mountain • Consider K-12 schools in the Close FJ Mitchell, thereby Elk Valley • • Significantly improved overall quality of facilities avoiding full cost of Elkford replacement More elementary schools near optimal size • • Dispose of surplus property In long term when schools are • • with proceeds as part of Likelihood of success nearing end of life, replace • business case both schools with a single K-12 Replacement projects based mostly on poor facilities • school • In the interim, shift Grade 6 up to Fernie and make secondary Surplus capacity in middle and secondary schools may reduce likelihood of Dispose of surplus property • • into middle and secondary approvals with proceeds as part of business case • No requirements based on educational changes • In the interim, shift Grade 6 up to Elkford and make secondary into middle and secondary 29 30
Alternatives to consider Cranbrook alternatives • Fernie • Cranbrook
Presentation to the • In long term, expand and Begin shift to junior middle Presentation to the SD5 Board of • SD5 Board of Education renovate secondary for K-12 model by replacing Mount Education 2012 04 30 Baker with a 1250 capacity 2012 04 30 Steeples Update to SD5 • Close Isabella Dicken, thereby Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan secondary to serve Grades 9-12 District Facilities Plan avoiding full cost of Pinewood replacement • Shift middle schools to serve Mount Baker Dispose of surplus property Grades 6-8 and elementary • Laurie with proceeds as part of schools to serve K-5 business case • Close Amy Woodland, thereby In the interim, shift Grade 6 up avoiding full cost of TM Roberts • Amy Woodland to Fernie and make secondary replacement Highlands into middle and secondary • Dispose of surplus property with proceeds as part of Parkland • Jaffray business case for Mount Baker Gordon Terrace Kootenay Orchards • In the long term, replace with • Expand and renovate Pinewood new small K-9 school • Upgrade remaining five • Alternatively, consider a K-5 elementary schools as funding school 31 allows 32 Utilization with alternatives Discussion of alternatives • Results of implementing alternatives focusing on long term
Presentation to the Presentation to the Capacity utilization improved from 92% to 96% SD5 Board of SD5 Board of • Education Education 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 • Replaced Mount Baker as well as Laurie, Jaffray and Elkford long term Update to SD5 Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan District Facilities Plan • Expanded Pinewood, Fernie and Sparwood • Avoided having to replace Amy Woodland, Isabella Dicken and FJ Mitchell as well as upgrading Rocky Mountain in long term • Significantly improved overall quality of facilities • Reduced operating costs by reducing from 17 to 13 schools • Transition to junior middle model • Likelihood of success • Replacement projects still based mostly on poor facilities, but proceeds from surplus properties will reduce net cost of new and upgraded facilities • Improved capacity utilization may increase likelihood of approvals 33 34
Direction requested Need for public consultation • Establishing capital plan priorities for status quo plan • Present information about updated analysis
Presentation to the Priorities for replacement projects: Mount Baker, Amy Woodland, Presentation to the Enrolment forecasts and capacity utilization estimates SD5 Board of • SD5 Board of • Education Isabella Dicken and FJ Mitchell? Education 2012 04 30 2012 04 30 • Impact on capital plan Update to SD5 Other capital plan priorities? Update to SD5 District Facilities Plan • District Facilities Plan Ask for input on capital plan priorities • Other considerations or refinement of status quo plan? • • Mount Baker, Amy Woodland, Isabella Dicken and FJ Mitchell Further consideration of alternatives • • Other capital plan priorities • Serious consideration of K-12 schools in Elkford, Sparwood and/or Fernie? Ask for input on alternatives • Serious consideration of junior middle model in Cranbrook? • • Merits of K-12 schools in Elkford, Sparwood and Fernie • Other alternatives presented or new ideas? • Merits of junior middle model in Cranbrook • Other alternatives presented or new ideas • Form of public consultation depends on objectives
35 36 APPENDIXB
BEST K-12 ENROLMENT FORECASTS FOR SD5 SCHOOLS Best K-12 Enrolment Forecasts for SD05 Schools Appendix B
School FI 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mount Baker Secondary FI 878 847 844 834 788 792 784 797 797 839 872 899 895 893 925 951 Parkland Middle FI 467 434 419 424 440 432 440 447 475 473 463 474 481 494 489 489 TM Roberts Elementary FI 337 351 345 346 341 344 343 336 341 340 342 344 345 346 346 346 Gordon Terrace Elementary 285 286 288 283 286 293 285 287 289 290 289 289 289 287 286 283 Pinewood Elementary 128 134 134 142 147 151 148 151 155 159 161 159 162 162 163 163 Kootenay Orchards Elementary 216 227 223 217 220 210 204 202 197 197 199 194 194 194 193 193 Laurie Middle 363 349 348 336 339 343 360 382 384 388 393 400 410 411 412 414 Highlands Elementary 224 233 229 232 237 248 247 244 232 249 241 242 243 243 242 242 Steeples Elementary 152 173 176 180 188 195 203 206 209 209 211 215 216 217 216 216 Amy Woodland Elementary 240 250 264 276 292 312 325 331 340 338 345 344 344 344 342 343 Jaffray Elementary/Junior Secondary 163 174 174 183 174 173 175 177 179 175 175 174 171 169 166 168 Fernie Secondary FI 353 346 352 356 366 380 395 392 410 431 439 464 485 515 522 515 Isabella Dicken Elementary FI 302 314 331 349 356 364 365 371 370 366 358 353 346 343 337 333 Sparwood Secondary 288 293 276 285 275 257 269 285 293 300 313 325 326 318 314 308 FJ Mitchell Elementary 317 327 339 339 347 355 355 349 346 342 343 344 346 348 347 346 Elkford Secondary 163 172 172 165 176 171 176 189 185 194 205 202 205 206 208 204 Rocky Mountain Elementary 227 235 241 251 252 249 253 251 253 245 241 243 245 246 246 246 District Total for regular schools 5,103 5,145 5,155 5,198 5,224 5,269 5,327 5,397 5,455 5,535 5,590 5,665 5,703 5,736 5,754 5,760 Cranbrook schools 3,290 3,284 3,270 3,270 3,278 3,320 3,339 3,383 3,419 3,482 3,516 3,560 3,579 3,591 3,614 3,640 Fernie schools 655 660 683 705 722 744 760 763 780 797 797 817 831 858 859 848 Sparwood schools 605 620 615 624 622 612 624 634 639 642 656 669 672 666 661 654 Elkford schools 390 407 413 416 428 420 429 440 438 439 446 445 450 452 454 450 FI indicates a French Immersion program
Matrix Planning Associates 1216 | 2012 09 21 SD5 figures draft.xlsx | Enrolment APPENDIXC
GRADE CONFIGURATION OPTIONS
GRADE CONFIGURATION OPTIONS
To: Rob Norum, School District 5 (Southeast Kootenay) From: William Wood, Matrix Planning Associates Date: 2012 05 28 Subject: Discussion of middle schools, K-12 schools and other grade configurations relevant to communities in SD5
INTRODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of some of the advantages and disadvantages of various school grade configurations with particular reference to those options that may be possible in Cranbrook, Fernie, Sparwood, Elkford and Jaffray. In preparing this paper, we have drawn from available research (much of it American) as well as our experience in working with many school districts in British Columbia.
GRADE CONFIGURATIONS IN BC In BC education, elementary is K-7 and secondary is 8-12. We conducted a study in 1988 that indicated that the nearly half a million students in approximately 1,500 schools in BC were organized by grades into six configurations: About 290,000 students were in K-7 elementary schools. About 120,000 students were in 8-12 secondary schools. About 40,000 students were in 8-10 junior secondary schools. About 20,000 students were in K-10 schools. Fewer than 20,000 students were in 11-12 senior secondary schools. About 10,000 students were in K-12 schools. As illustrated in Figure 1, the current estimated 1,441 BC public schools are in a broader range of grade configurations than in 1988. The classic K-7 and 8-12 grade configuration still dominates, but now there are many schools that reflect the introduction of middle schools in several school districts. The following 14 school districts have junior middle schools (Grade 5-8): Abbotsford (34), New Westminster (40), Coquitlam (43), Greater Victoria (61), Sooke (62), Saanich (63), Kootenay Lake (8), Langley (35), Gulf Islands (64), Okanagan Skaha (67), Qualicum (69), Alberni (70), Cowichan Valley (79) and North Okanagan-Shuswap (83). Besides Southeast Kootenay, the following 6 school districts have senior middle schools (Grades 7-9): Nicola-Similkameen (58), Central Okanagan (23), Peace River South (59), Comox Valley (71), Campbell River (72) and Cowichan Valley (79). Most, if not all, of these middle schools are legacies of an earlier junior secondary grade configuration model.
Grade Configuration Options, SD5, May 2012 1
Figure 1: Grade Configurations in BC Public Schools
K-12 schools traditionally have been popular for isolated communities. It is a practical way to accommodate relatively small enrolments but maintain access to the full grade span in a community. Some of the newer K-12 schools are for special programs in urban centres. This applies to the recent K-12 schools built by SD93 as well as the Langley Fine Arts School. There are K-12 schools in Kootenay Lake (8), Arrow Lakes (10), Langley (35), Haida Gwaii (50), Prince Rupert (52), Peace River North (60), Gulf Islands (64), Alberni (70), Gold Trail (74), Fraser-Cascade (78), Fort Nelson (81), Coast Mountains (82), Vancouver Island West (84), Stikine (87), Nechako Lakes (91), Nisga’a (92) and Conseil Scolaire Francophone (93).
GRADE CONFIGURATION AND STUDENT SUCCESS Most researchers have concluded that there is no clear relationship between grade configuration and student success. Simply organizing schools in a particular grade configuration will not, by itself, produce predictably higher levels of student success. There are too many other variable such as the programs available to meet the developmental needs of students, the quality of the teaching staff and, of course, socioeconomic status of the student. Also, most of the research is American and very little focused on the specific situation in BC. Until strong evidence is presented identifying a clear ‘best grade configuration’, we must conclude that grade configuration alone, is a relatively minor factor in
Grade Configuration Options, SD5, May 2012 2
student success. Nevertheless, we must still do the best we can at defining the best grade configuration for each community. Some researchers have found that there are several considerations related to determining the right grade configuration: The appropriateness of grouping certain grades together. The number of grades included in a school — fewer than three grades is not advisable. The number of classrooms within each grade. The number of school transitions students will be required to make in their K-12 educational experience — fewer transitions are better.
MIDDLE SCHOOL PHILOSOPHY AND PRACTICE
Shift from junior high schools For the past several decades, the number of junior high schools (usually Grades 7-9) has been declining in favour of the middle school (usually Grades 6-8). This signals the conceptual shift from junior high school as a ‘preparation for high school’ toward the middle school as a ‘child-centered’ characterized by team teaching, advisory programs and flexible scheduling. Junior high schools are organized similar to comprehensive high schools with departmentalization, 40-50 minute periods, subject area teachers, competitive sports and emphasis on academic achievement. Middle schools use various degrees of the five commonly endorsed practices considered essential to the middle level model: teaming, exploratory courses, co-curricular programs, adviser arrangements and intramural activities.
Foundation of middle schools To accomplish intellectual, human, social, and career development, each learner is unique. This is particularly important when teaching students in Grade 6 to 8. Students of this age group have very different needs from other age groups and providing a middle school environment increases the chances of the school to meet those needs. Three principles of learning as established by the Ministry of Education fit middle school age students more than any other group: Learning requires the active participation of the learner. People learn in a variety of ways and at different rates. Learning is both an individual and a social process.
Advantages of middle schools Educators who are considering grade configuration alternatives have identified the following advantages of the middle school: Provision for specialist and generalist teachers with more than one and less than eight teachers for any one student.
Grade Configuration Options, SD5, May 2012 3
Provision for a guidance and advisory program in a small group setting with a middle school specialist teacher. Interdisciplinary study with teacher teams collaborating to provide an integrated curriculum. Instructional and assessment practices tailored for age group, such as cooperative grouping with active participation. Specialized counselling for the young adolescent age group. Specialized teaching areas such as technology and fine arts. Increased opportunity for students to become involved in curricular and extra-curricular activities by not having to compete with older students. Learning and teaching with an identified middle years curriculum in both core and exploratory areas. Increased or enhanced interaction, involvement, and communication amongst home, school and community. Emphasis on successful transition from elementary to secondary programs.
Elementary and secondary schools in middle school configurations Most educators like the K-5 configuration for elementary schools. Having the Grade 6 and 7 students in a middle school allows the elementary school to focus on the needs of the younger students and provides an earlier leadership opportunity for those in Grade 5. Most educators also like the Grade 9-12 span for secondary school in that it allows a year (Grade 9) of transition before settling into the graduation program of Grades 10-12. Having the Grade 8 students in a middle school allows the secondary school to be more focused on academics and achievement.
Contrary considerations In practice, few middle schools actually follow all the principles of middle school education. This is, in part, due to the overriding, system-wide emphasis on subject-focused academic achievement. As a result, we often hear excuses for relatively poor outcomes for students in middle schools based on the lack of complete implementation of the middle school philosophy. Recent research and debate, especially in the United States, has drawn attention to poor academic achievement by students in middle schools. Some of this study and discussion has focused on the apparent advantages of K-8 schools.
K-8 AND K-12 GRADE CONFIGURATIONS As mentioned, there is substantial research indicating that each transition or school change a student makes has a negative effect on learning. To offset this, some school districts are seeking to reduce such changes by adjusting grade configurations. The K-8 school is staging a comeback, and some districts are considering a return to K–12 schools, with all grades under one roof. Revisiting the K–12 concept is one part of the idea of a neighborhood school where
Grade Configuration Options, SD5, May 2012 4
students can go to the same school near their home from kindergarten through high-school graduation. The CSF (Conseil Scolaire Francophone) has planned and constructed several K-12 schools, including: Ecole Andre Piolat, a 425-space school in North Vancouver. Ecole Des Pionniers, a 725-space school in Port Coquitlam. Ecole Gabrielle-Roy, a 575-space school in Surrey. Ecole Victor Brodeur, a 550-space school in Victoria (Matrix was involved in the planning of this school). This model appears to be working well for providing a centre for francophone education in dominantly English-speaking communities. Similarly, many private schools have K-12 grade spans. The purposed designed K-12 school in Kaslo, JV Humphries, appears to be working well. There are currently fewer than 240 students enrolled in this school with a nominal capacity of 375 spaces. The instructional spaces are organized into primary, intermediate and senior zones with programs to match the specific needs of students in each age group. The mentorship programs are useful for both the older and younger students. Bullying appears to be less of a problem is this school than in many schools, possibly due to the mentorship program as well as the relatively small size of the school.
Grade Configuration Options, SD5, May 2012 5
APPENDIXD
CAPACITY UTILIZATION PROFILES FOR SD5 SCHOOLS Baseline Capacity Utilization for SD05 Schools Appendix D.1
Grade K-12 Capacity K-12 Enrolment Surplus or Shortage Capacity Utilization School Notes Span Nom Oper 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 Mount Baker 10 12 900 900 847 792 899 951 53 108 1 -51 94% 88% 100% 106% becoming over utilized Parkland 7 9 600 600 434 432 474 489 166 168 126 111 72% 72% 79% 82% becoming less underutilized Laurie 7 9 450 450 349 343 400 414 101 107 50 36 78% 76% 89% 92% becoming better utilized TM Roberts K 6 375 336 351 344 344 346 -15 -8 -8 -10 104% 102% 102% 103% overutilized Gordon Terrace K 6 300 269 286 293 289 283 -17 -24 -20 -14 106% 109% 107% 105% overutilized Pinewood K 6 175 157 134 151 159 163 23 6 -2 -6 85% 96% 101% 104% becoming overutilized Kootenay Orchards K 6 250 224 227 210 194 193 -3 14 30 31 101% 94% 87% 86% becoming less overutilized Highlands K 6 325 292 233 248 242 242 59 44 50 50 80% 85% 83% 83% becoming less underutilized Steeples K 6 275 247 173 195 215 216 74 52 32 31 70% 79% 87% 87% becoming less underutilized Amy Woodland K 6 300 269 250 312 344 343 19 -43 -75 -74 93% 116% 128% 128% becoming over utilized Jaffray K 10 300 280 174 173 174 168 106 107 106 112 62% 62% 62% 60% underutilized Fernie 7 12 675 675 346 380 464 515 329 295 211 160 51% 56% 69% 76% becoming less underutilized Isabella Dicken K 6 325 292 314 364 353 333 -22 -72 -61 -41 108% 125% 121% 114% overutilized Sparwood 7 12 350 350 293 257 325 308 57 93 25 42 84% 73% 93% 88% becoming less underutilized FJ Mitchell K 6 325 292 327 355 344 346 -35 -63 -52 -54 112% 122% 118% 118% overutilized Elkford 7 12 375 375 172 171 202 204 203 204 173 171 46% 46% 54% 54% underutilized Rocky Mountain K 6 250 224 235 249 243 246 -11 -25 -19 -22 105% 111% 108% 110% overutilized School District Total K 12 6,550 6,232 5,145 5,269 5,665 5,760 1,087 963 567 472 83% 85% 91% 92% becoming well utilized Cranbrook community K 12 3,950 3,744 3,284 3,320 3,560 3,640 460 424 184 104 88% 89% 95% 97% becoming well utilized Jaffray community K 10 300 280 174 173 174 168 106 107 106 112 62% 62% 62% 60% underutilized Fernie community K 12 1,000 967 660 744 817 848 307 223 150 119 68% 77% 84% 88% becoming less underutilized Sparwood community K 12 675 642 620 612 669 654 22 30 -27 -12 97% 95% 104% 102% fully utilized Elkford community K 12 625 599 407 420 445 450 192 179 154 149 68% 70% 74% 75% becoming less underutilized Secondary/middle 7 12 2,300 2,300 1,658 1,600 1,890 1,978 642 700 410 322 72% 70% 82% 86% becoming less underutilized Elementary schools K 6 4,250 3,932 3,487 3,669 3,775 3,782 445 263 157 150 89% 93% 96% 96% becoming well utilized Cranbrook middle 7 9 1,050 1,050 783 775 874 903 267 275 176 147 75% 74% 83% 86% becoming less underutilized Cranbrook elementary K 6 2,000 1,794 1,654 1,753 1,787 1,786 140 41 7 8 92% 98% 100% 100% becoming over utilized Average School K 12 385 367 303 310 333 339 64 57 33 28 17 Total number of schools
Matrix Planning Associates 1216 | 2012 09 23 SD05 utilization profiles.xlsx | Baseline Capacity Utilization Profile with Status Quo Plan Appendix D.2
Grade K-12 Capacity K-12 Enrolment Surplus or Shortage Capacity Utilization Con- Capital School Emerging Plan Span Nom Oper 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 dition Plan Mount Baker 10 12 1,000 1,000 792 899 951 208 101 49 79% 90% 95% D New Replace soon with 1000 capacity Parkland 7 9 600 600 432 474 489 168 126 111 72% 79% 82% A Retain for long term Laurie 7 9 450 450 343 400 414 107 50 36 76% 89% 92% C New Replace in long term with smaller school TM Roberts K 6 375 336 344 344 346 -8 -8 -10 102% 102% 103% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Gordon Terrace K 6 300 269 293 289 283 -24 -20 -14 109% 107% 105% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Pinewood K 6 300 269 151 159 163 118 110 106 56% 59% 61% B Expand Expand and upgrade in medium term Kootenay Orchards K 6 250 224 210 194 193 14 30 31 94% 87% 86% B Upgrade Shift students, upgrade as required Highlands K 6 325 292 248 242 242 44 50 50 85% 83% 83% C Upgrade Shift students, upgrade or replace Steeples K 6 275 247 195 215 216 52 32 31 79% 87% 87% C Upgrade Shift students, upgrade or replace Amy Woodland K 6 350 314 312 344 343 2 -30 -29 99% 110% 109% D New Replace in medium term, maybe larger Jaffray K 10 300 280 173 174 168 107 106 112 62% 62% 60% D New Replace in long term with smaller school Fernie 7 12 675 675 380 464 515 295 211 160 56% 69% 76% A Retain for long term Isabella Dicken K 6 400 359 364 353 333 -5 6 26 101% 98% 93% D New Replace with larger school Sparwood 7 12 350 350 257 325 308 93 25 42 73% 93% 88% A Retain for long term FJ Mitchell K 6 400 359 355 344 346 4 15 13 99% 96% 96% D New Replace with larger school Elkford 7 12 375 375 171 202 204 204 173 171 46% 54% 54% C New Replace with smaller school long term Rocky Mountain K 6 275 247 249 243 246 -2 4 1 101% 98% 100% B Expand Expand and renovate School District Total K 12 7,000 6,646 5,269 5,665 5,760 1,377 981 886 79% 85% 87% Plans reduce overall utilization Cranbrook community K 12 4,225 4,001 3,320 3,560 3,640 681 441 361 83% 89% 91% Plans reduce overall utilization Fernie community K 12 1,075 1,034 744 817 848 290 217 186 72% 79% 82% Plans reduce overall utilization Sparwood community K 12 750 709 612 669 654 97 40 55 86% 94% 92% Plans reduce overall utilization Elkford community K 12 650 622 420 445 450 202 177 172 68% 72% 72% Long term plans may increase overall utilization Secondary/middle 7 12 2,400 2,400 1,600 1,890 1,978 800 510 422 67% 79% 82% Plans reduce overall utilization Elementary schools K 6 4,600 4,246 3,669 3,775 3,782 577 471 464 86% 89% 89% Plans reduce overall utilization Cranbrook middle 7 9 1,050 1,050 775 874 903 275 176 147 74% 83% 86% No change in overall utilization Cranbrook elementary K 6 2,175 1,951 1,753 1,787 1,786 198 164 165 90% 92% 92% Plans reduce overall utilization Average School K 12 412 391 310 333 339 81 58 52 17 Total number of schools
Matrix Planning Associates 1216 | 2012 09 23 SD05 utilization profiles.xlsx | SQ Plan Capacity Utilization Profile for Alternative Plans Appendix D-3
Grade K-12 Capacity K-12 Enrolment Surplus or Shortage Capacity Utilization Con- Capital School Emerging Plan Span Nom Oper 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 dition Plan Mount Baker 9 12 1,250 1,250 1,050 1,190 1,252 200 60 -2 84% 95% 100% D New Replace with 1250 capacity Parkland 6 8 600 600 431 457 467 169 143 133 72% 76% 78% A Retain for long term, shift students Laurie 6 8 300 300 337 381 390 -37 -81 -90 112% 127% 130% C New Replace in long term with smaller school TM Roberts K 5 375 330 345 351 352 -15 -21 -22 105% 106% 107% B Upgrade Upgrade as required, shift students Gordon Terrace K 5 300 264 251 248 243 13 16 21 95% 94% 92% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Pinewood K 5 300 264 178 190 194 86 74 70 68% 72% 73% B Expand Expand or replace in medium term Kootenay Orchards K 5 250 220 229 220 219 -9 0 1 104% 100% 100% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Highlands K 5 325 286 283 284 284 3 2 2 99% 99% 99% C Upgrade Upgrade or replace Steeples K 5 275 242 216 238 239 26 4 3 89% 98% 99% C Upgrade Upgrade or replace Amy Woodland K 5 D Close Close in medium term Jaffray K 9 200 186 163 164 158 23 22 28 88% 88% 85% D New Replace with 200 space K-9 school Fernie K 12 925 874 754 827 858 120 47 16 86% 95% 98% A Expand Expand and renovate Isabella Dicken K 5 D Close Close in long term Sparwood K 12 725 685 612 669 654 73 16 31 89% 98% 95% A Expand Expand and renovate FJ Mitchell K 5 D Close Close in medium term Elkford K 12 500 472 420 445 450 52 27 22 89% 94% 95% C New Replace in long term Rocky Mountain K 5 B Close Close in long term School District Total K 12 6,325 5,973 5,269 5,665 5,760 704 308 213 88% 95% 96% Plans will optimize overall utilization Cranbrook community K 12 3,975 3,756 3,320 3,560 3,640 436 196 116 88% 95% 97% Plans will optimize overall utilization Cranbrook middle 6 8 900 900 767 838 857 133 62 43 85% 93% 95% Plans will increase utilization Cranbrook elementary K 5 1,825 1,606 1,503 1,532 1,531 103 74 75 94% 95% 95% Plans will optimize overall utilization Average School K 12 487 459 405 436 443 54 24 16 13 Total number of schools
Matrix Planning Associates 1216 | 2012 09 23 SD05 utilization profiles.xlsx | Alt Plan Capacity Utilization Profile for Cranbrook Schools with a Traditional Grade Configuration Appendix D.4
Grade K-12 Capacity K-12 Enrolment Surplus or Shortage Capacity Utilization Con- Capital School Emerging Plan Span Nom Oper 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 2016 2022 2026 dition Plan Mount Baker 8 12 900 900 787 891 934 113 9 -34 87% 99% 104% D New Replace soon with 900 capacity Parkland 8 12 600 600 524 594 622 76 6 -22 87% 99% 104% A Expand to 700 in future Laurie K 7 450 419 382 407 413 37 12 6 91% 97% 99% C Upgrade Replace or renovate in long term TM Roberts K 7 375 349 328 340 339 21 9 10 94% 97% 97% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Gordon Terrace K 7 300 279 286 298 293 -7 -19 -14 103% 107% 105% B Upgrade Upgrade as required Pinewood K 7 250 233 237 240 245 -4 -7 -12 102% 103% 105% B Expand Expand and upgrade in medium term Kootenay Orchards K 7 250 233 246 235 235 -13 -2 -2 106% 101% 101% B Upgrade Shift students, upgrade as required Highlands K 7 325 303 295 295 297 8 8 6 97% 97% 98% C Upgrade Shift students, upgrade or replace Steeples K 7 275 256 235 260 262 21 -4 -6 92% 102% 102% C Upgrade Shift students, upgrade or replace Amy Woodland D Close Close and replace with Laurie Cranbrook Total K 12 3,725 3,572 3,320 3,560 3,640 252 12 -68 93% 100% 102% Moving to full utilization Cranbrook secondary 8 12 1,500 1,500 1,311 1,485 1,556 189 15 -56 87% 99% 104% Moving to full utilization Cranbrook elementary K 7 2,225 2,072 2,009 2,075 2,084 63 -3 -12 97% 100% 101% Moving to full utilization
Matrix Planning Associates 1216 | 2012 09 23 SD05 utilization profiles.xlsx | CranTrad