OKLAHOMA SURVEY of LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18Th – 19Th and 15Th, 2018 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644N, +/-3.86%, April 2018 2 Methodology

OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18th – 19th and 15th, 2018 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 2 Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 644n autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state of Oklahoma.

Ø The interviews were conducted from April 18th, 19th and 22nd, 2018.

Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics for a Republican primary election in Oklahoma.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director. Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 3 Survey Demographics

48% 45% 52%

24% 14% 7% 10%

Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

34% 31% 20% 15%

Evangelical, Trump Republican "Traditional" Unsure or No Christian Republican Opinion Conservative Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 4 Survey Demographics

76%

11% 6% 5% 1% 1%

Married Widowed Separated or Single, Never Single, Living with No Opinion Divorced Been Married Partner Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 5 Congressional Districts

OTTAWA HARPER GRANT KAY NOWATA CIMARRON TEXAS BEAVER WOODS CRAIG ALFALFA WASHINGTON OSAGE

WOODWARD GARFIELD NOBLE ROGERS MAJOR PAWNEE MAYES ELLIS 1 DELAWARE PAYNE TULSA DEWEY KINGFISHER LOGAN CREEK WAGONER CHEROKEE 3 BLAINE ADAIR ROGER MILLS LINCOLN CUSTER OKMULGEE MUSKOGEE CANADIAN OKLAHOMA OKFUSKEE SEQUOYAH MCINTOSH BECKHAM WASHITA POTTAWATOMIE CADDO SEMINOLE HASKELL CLEVELAND 5 HUGHES GRADY MCCLAIN LATIMER GREER KIOWA PITTSBURG 2 LE FLORE HARMON GARVIN PONTOTOC COMANCHE JACKSON 4 COAL STEPHENS MURRAY PUSHMATAHA TILLMAN ATOKA JOHNSTON COTTON CARTER Legend JEFFERSON MCCURTAIN MARSHALL CHOCTAW LOVE BRYAN Congressional District CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 µ Oklahoma Regions - By Congressional District 6

VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 7

In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me what you think the most important issues and problems are that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most.

“Oklahoma needs a full “Figure out the states Major Themes budget problems. They audit and investigation have had budget problems Budget Problems–Audit Govt. Agencies into every agency from for years and it needs to be the top down on where addressed.” Education – Paying Teachers – our tax money is going, - Female, 45-54, Evangelical Consolidating School Districts who is spending it, the waste, the corruption Jobs and ﬁx it. And stop High Taxes raising taxes every time “Economy and education.” the wind blows up their - Male, 55-64, Traditional skirt. ” -Female, 55-64, “Teacher pay raise. More funding for Evangelical “Raising teachers pay.” schools in OK.” -Male, 55-64, Trump Rep - Female, 65+, Evangelical

“Leadership in the “Should address the bureaucracy. Have legislature. The economy “Taxes are too high. Teachers audits of everything and see what we can and jobs. Education pay is too low. Too much cut. We should address the union of problems. Healthcare corruption.” government employees, it isn't right that problems.” -Female, 65+, Trump Rep the union runs our state more than the - Female, 65+, Traditional state does. ” -Male, 45-54, Trump Rep Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 8 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

24%

19%

13%

10% 10% 10%

7% 6%

ADDRESSING IMPROVING CREATE JOBS PROTECTING ENFORCING PROTECT LIFE REDUCING REDUCE OTHER NO STATE BUDGET PUBLIC GROW 2ND IMMIGRATION RELIGIOUS COST OF ENERGY OPINION CRISIS SCHOOLS ECONOMY AMENDMENT LAWS LIBERTY HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY REGULATIONS Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 9 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

24% 24% 12% 6% 6% 9% 10% 1% 8% WOMEN

2% 23% 15% 14% 15% 14% 10% 4% 4% MEN

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 10 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

23% 9% 11% 19% 16% 4% 7% 2% 9% TRUMP

17% 17% 14% 8% 11% 21% 9% 3% EVANGELICAL

1% 2% 33% 31% 14% 7% TRADITIONAL 4% 5% 3%

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 11 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

65+ 21% 20% 10% 9% 13% 10% 8% 1% 9%

55-64 22% 19% 13% 9% 8% 8% 13% 4% 5% 1% 45-54 27% 25% 13% 17% 5% 8% 1% 2%

35-44 33% 19% 11% 15% 5% 11% 6%

18-34 27% 10% 34% 10% 11% 8%

GARY RICHARDSON IMAGE RATING Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Richardson?

14% 23% 37% 31% 31% 25% 25% 35% 21% 17% 28% 12%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE 39% UNFAVORABLE 37% 36% 27% HEARD OF NO OPINION 25% 24% 26% 26% 20% 19% NEVER HEARD OF 11% 11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Richardson?

14% 23%

28% 35%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

42% 40% 37% 34% 36% 30% 31% 31% 27% 24% 26% 23% 21% 21% 18% 17% 13% 15% 14%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 15

TODD LAMB IMAGE RATING Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Lamb?

6% 35% 37% 35% 34% 32% 33% 29% 22% 25% 7% 5%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE

UNFAVORABLE 41% 39% 37% 35% 36% HEARD OF NO OPINION 31% 22% 25% NEVER HEARD OF 16% 6% 4% 7% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Lamb? 6% 35% 34% 25%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

48% 38% 41% 35% 34% 32% 34% 36% 27% 30% 23% 25% 26% 24% 22% 8% 8% 4% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18

KEVIN STITT IMAGE RATING Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kevin Stitt?

22% 28%

34% 29% 28% 26% 21% 22% 22% 31% 19% 17%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE

UNFAVORABLE 33% 33% 33% 29% 30% 31% 25% HEARD OF NO OPINION 21% 22% 17% NEVER HEARD OF 13% 12%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kevin Stitt?

22% 28%

31% 19%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

52% 48%

32% 32% 31% 33% 27% 27% 31% 25% 25% 25% 22% 22% 18% 15% 14% 10% 10%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 21

MICK CORNETT IMAGE RATING Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mick Cornett?

17%

33% 32% 33% 33% 21% 25% 23% 19% 19% 16% 29%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 45%

HEARD OF NO OPINION 28% 32% 30% 29% 23% 21% 24% 24% NEVER HEARD OF 16% 17% 11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mick Cornett?

17% 33% 21% 29%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

46% 38% 36% 39% 32% 31% 33% 27% 28% 25% 23% 22% 18% 18% 21% 18% 16% 14% 10% 6%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 24

GARY JONES IMAGE RATING Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Jones?

12% 31% 38% 24% 31% 31% 26% 29% 21% 14% 33% 10%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 33% 37% 37% 31% 30% 27% HEARD OF NO OPINION 23% 22% 18% 19% NEVER HEARD OF 13% 11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Jones? 12% 31% 24%

33%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

45% 47% 36% 34% 33% 32% 32% 32% 32% 27% 26% 21% 20% 17% 19% 12% 15% 11% 0% 8%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 27

DONALD TRUMP JOB APPROVAL Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 28 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

6% 14% 83% 78%

80% 12% 15% 5% 7% MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 90% 98% DISAPPROVE 56% UNSURE NO OPINION 39% 5% 5% 5% 2%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 29 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

14% 6%

80%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

83% 85% 72% 68% 74%

18% 20% 22% 10% 12% 4% 15% 2% 10% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 30

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 31 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

16% 26% 65% 52%

27% 25% 21% 58% 10%

MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 58% 58% 56% DISAPPROVE 32% 29% 22% UNSURE NO OPINION 19% 15% 10%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 32 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

16% 26%

58%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

66% 66% 54% 56% 56%

31% 28% 26% 29% 28% 18% 13% 16% 8% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 33

MARY FALLIN JOB APPROVAL Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 34 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?

17% 20% 66% 60%

24% 63% 16% 16% 18%

MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 69% 59% 58% DISAPPROVE

UNSURE NO OPINION 22% 22% 19% 21% 21% 9% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 35 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?

17% 20%

63%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

77% 71% 64% 67% 55%

26% 19% 19% 25% 21% 11% 10% 12% 9% 14%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 36

OKLAHOMA GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BALLOT TEST Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 37 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

23%

19% 19%

17%

12%

5% 5%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 38 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

22% 19% 16% 10% 5% 4% 23% WOMEN

15% 18% 18% 15% 6% 5% 23% MEN

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 39 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

17% 24% 14% 16% 2%4% 24% TRUMP

19% 24% 9% 15% 10% 4% 19% EVANGELICAL

26% 8% 31% 8% 2% 7% 18% TRADITIONAL

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 40 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

65+ 17% 20% 22% 10% 4% 3% 24%

55-64 21% 20% 18% 9% 7% 4% 22%

45-54 14% 14% 21% 13% 5% 7% 27%

35-44 23% 17% 26% 14% 20%

18-34 27% 16% 17% 19% 20%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 41 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

CD05 20% 8% 32% 8% 10% 8% 14%

CD04 23% 24% 17% 11% 5% 5% 15%

CD03 19% 19% 18% 11% 2% 7% 24%

CD02 22% 15% 6% 14% 7% 2% 33%

CD01 13% 23% 11% 17% 5% 2% 29%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED 42

VOTER OPINION ON TEACHER RAISES Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 43 As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about $6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

3% 18% 84% 74%

23% 79% 3% 14% 2%

MEN WOMEN

TOTAL SUPPORT 87% 77% 77% TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION 12% 1% 20% 3% 22% 2%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 44 As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about $6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or oppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

18% 3%

79%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

81% 80% 80% 73% 77%

27% 23% 17% 2% 18% 2% 17% 3%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 45 Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers As you may know, after the pay raise for public school teachers was approved, teachers walked out in protest for nine days asking the Governor and state legislature for additional funding for Oklahoma’s classrooms. To pay for the additional funding, the Governor and state legislature expanded the number of online purchases subject to the state sales tax, and allowed ball and dice games at tribal casinos in which winnings are taxed. Knowing this information, do you support or oppose these actions to generate additional funding for Oklahoma’s classrooms? Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 46 Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers

6% 71% 28% 61%

34% 66% 23% 5% 6% MEN WOMEN

TOTAL SUPPORT 78% 62% 63% TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION 33% 34% 18% 4% 5% 4% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 47 Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers 6% 28% 66%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

70% 69% 69% 56% 49% 44% 40% 27% 28% 23% 11% 3% 3% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers

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