Political Campaigning Newsletter UF MA/PC Program Summer 2017

Director’s Corner

Boy, we certainly didn't see that coming. I'm talking about Donald Trump's (seemingly) un- likely win in the 2016 presidential election, of course. You may recall from last year's UF/PC newsletter the essay by Michael Martinez on forecasting models, most of which pointed to a narrow win for Hillary Clinton – the exception being “econometric” models (the most inter- esting to me because they predict outcomes months in advance based on economic and po- litical conditions at the time), which reached exactly the opposite conclusion. Dr. Stephen Craig Bully for those econometric models, right? Wrong! Almost all forecasting models are de- In this issue... signed to predict the winner of the two-party popular vote. And guess who that was. Yep, • The Folk Theory Hillary Clinton. Perhaps the most famous presidential forecaster is Allan Lichtman, a history of Democracy professor at whose so-called "13 keys" model is said to have accurately pre- or post-dicted accurately every election since 1860. Lichtman received considerable me- • Alex Patton on dia attention for having correctly anticipated Trump's win in 2016 – except that like the oth- Academics and er models, his is focused on the popular vote. Having claimed credit for being accurate with Consulting 's popular vote win in 2000, I don't see how he can now take credit for Trump's elec- toral vote win in 2016. To put it simply, any model that forecast a Trump popular vote win was wrong. Period. • Alumni Spotlights Which takes us to the various media polls in 2016, almost all of which (even as Election Day neared) anticipated a Clinton victory. While the pollsters have taken a lot of heat for this, • Joel Searby on Evan McMullin especially in Trumpland, the fact is that they nailed it. At least in terms of the national vote, that is. Where the polls broke down was at the state level, where projections in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin either (a) did not catch what appears to have been… • Damien Filer and the Advanced (Continued on page 3) Strategy Seminar

1

tend either to focus myopically on the very recent past or to hold politicians accountable for the weather and other things they cannot be expected to control.

If voters are neither rational gods of vengeance and re- ward nor clear-eyed Downsians, what are elections all about? Achen and Bartels see elections as the mobiliza- tion of social identities. For most voters, social identities (such as race, class, and religion) correspond to partisan identities, so not much thinking is required. Campaigns are about reminding voters who is on their side, and whose message sounds like what voters hear in their own Dr. Christopher Achen, Professor of Christopher H. Achen and networks of friends, neighbors, co-workers, and fellow Politics at Princeton University Larry M. Bartels. 2016. De- churchgoers. Occasionally, candidates or parties can con- mocracy for Realists: Why vince some groups to switch loyalties, as Catholics (and Elections Do Not Produce some Protestants) did in reaction to JFK’s candidacy in Responsive Government. Princeton University Press. 1960, and minorities and white southerners did in re- sponse to the Civil Rights Movement later that decade. But most of the time, most voters aren’t really giving Unraveling the Folk Theory of Democracy elected officials a mandate, as much as they are simply Dr. Michael Martinez voting to affirm their own identities.

Nevertheless, elections are important institutions. They Many Americans, some elected officials, and a few political determine who should hold office in a constitutional sys- scientists subscribe to the “folk theory of democracy.” Ac- tem, and the variations in motivations to vote over time cording to this view of our political world, elections are a produce enough turnover in office that elites should, in contest of ideas in which (a) candidates offer alternative poli- theory, develop a healthy tolerance for their opponents. cies and competing agendas, (b) campaigns communicate In this era of partisan polarization, one wonders if that, those choices via speeches, ads, and social networks, and (c) too, is unrealistic. voters evaluate those options and make choices based on which proposals best fit their policy preferences. The ideal, normatively satisfying result of this process is election of the candidate whose policy views are closest to those of the av- erage (median) voter. In a less demanding, retrospective ver- sion of the folk theory, voters are seen to have limited ability to see into the future and instead judge whether the incum- bent’s performance has been good enough job to deserve another term. Under either version, winners can claim some form of a mandate from voters.

Hogwash, or so says Chris Achen, the Roger Williams Straus Professor of Social Sciences and Professor of Politics at Princeton University. In his keynote address at our Depart- ment’s Spring Banquet, Achen highlighted many of the themes in his book co-authored with Larry Bartels, Democra- cy for Realists. Achen and Bartels argue that the folk theory of democracy places unrealistic expectations on voters, many of whom lack coherent preferences or knowledge about the choices offered by candidates. A few politically astute voters (like graduates of the Political Campaigning program) may appear to have policy preferences that mostly Our 2017 PC award winners (from left): Alex coincide with their vote choices – but, more often than not, Patton, who received the Walter “Skip” Campbell that reflects the motivation of those voters to align their Leadership Award; and William England, winner of preferences with their votes, rather than aligning their votes the Ralph E. Gonzalez Independent Spirit Award. with their preferences. Retrospective voters, for their part,

2

The Business of Consulting By Alex Patton

I was first paid to work a campaign in Was I, like some generals and consult- 1992. After volunteering or consulting ants, reverting to a tendency to fight on hundreds of campaigns, I decided to the last war? In between cycles this return to graduate school in the fall of kept me up at night. 2015. Setting aside the math, it would Director’s Corner, continued be fair to label me as a non-traditional As graduation day drew closer, I was student in the UF Political Campaigning asked countless times, “After working Program. in the field, what did you get out of the ...a late pro-Republican surge or program?” else (b) employed sampling As the old, battle-scarred operative in methods that missed quite a the class, I was asked countless times, The answer: A lot. few Trump supporters in those “Why did you return to school”? states to begin with. At the na- This program allowed me to verify or tional level, however, their “I want to get better” was the standard correct rules of thumb and largely self- numbers were pretty much on reply — but there is more to it. taught statistical procedures that I had target. relied upon throughout my career. I don't bring any of this up with Political consultants participating in the intent of trying to rehabili- campaigns, for the most part, lack for- In addition, I graduated with improved tate the reputation of either mal academic training. We are a mot- research and analytical skills that will presidential forecasters or ley crew comprised of professionals, provide invaluable assistance to an- (national) pollsters. They did hacks, and at times scoundrels — many swer new questions that arise in future their job in 2016, and for the of whom never consciously set out to cycles. most part did it well. But what be consultants at all. For the most part, about myself and my colleagues the profession relies on apprentice- Most importantly, the principal benefit in academia, very few of whom ships and mentorships to pass down is the improving of my critical thinking believed that Donald Trump had accumulated knowledge. I have been skills. My professors shattered some of a snowball's chance of being fortunate to have great mentors and to those old rules of thumbs — forcing elected president – a conclusion collaborate with competent practition- me to dig deeper into the nuances, based in part on our almost uni- ers; it is easy, however, to see that the conditions, and possible alternative versal conviction that, never pace of change is accelerating to the explanations of political phenomena. mind what might happen in No- point of potentially rendering rules of vember, Trump's chances of thumb to be trite and banal. Those professors were challenging, but being the Republican nominee fair, and the bottom line is that they were basically nil. (Jeb Bush, and the program have made me a anyone?) better consultant and thinker. I consid- I attended a panel at the 2016 er it an honor and privilege to have American Political Science Asso- been taught by some of the finest ciation meetings in Philadelphia minds in the country. Go Gators! that focused on the presidential nominating process and posed P.S. As an added bonus, the program the question, Was 2016 an out- gave me the opportunity to observe lier or the new normal? For and study the millennial cohort up- both nominations and the gen- close and personal. Boy, are they a eral election (and looking be- “special” group. yond just the presidency), that's something public opinion and voting behavior scholars will be studying for at least the next Alex Patton four years.

3

Alumni Spotlights

Lyndsay Jones Monstur Jenny Mesirow Associate Director of Major Gifts Vice President, Government Affairs Harvard Law School Farm Credit Council

Lyndsay came to the Campaigning program from Jenny got her start interning in the District Office her native England. She thought it would be a good of Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ), where she idea to further her studies and gain some experi- was “inspired by how much congressional offices ence in the US to create the best grounding for a do for their local residents. From there, I knew I career in the UK. Her career has taken her in some wanted to help good Members of Congress get unexpected directions. elected.”

After graduating, Lyndsay packed her car and drove Later, Jenny interned at the grassroots company, to Washington, DC, where she decided to pursue Fieldworks, where she realized that she wanted to fundraising because she recognized that campaigns work in campaigns. After receiving her M.A. degree always need money. She was soon brought on full in 2006, Jenny was hired as a field coordinator for time at a PAC fundraising firm. Rod Smith’s gubernatorial campaign, and then as political/field coordinator for Tim Mahoney’s con- Looking for new challenges, Lyndsay later accepted gressional race. She subsequently served as a Staff a political operations position with the Massachu- Assistant for Rep. Mahoney in DC, where she devel- setts Republican Party, and was eventually named oped an interest in agriculture issues. From there, the party’s Finance Director. In that capacity, she she moved on to a position with Travis Childers’ was responsible for organizing fundraising events, congressional campaign in Mississippi. the mail program, and call time for the party chair. After Childers won, Jenny served first as his senior Deciding that another change was in order, Lynd- Legislative Assistant and later as Legislative Direc- say chose to leave politics and transition into high- tor, where her interest in agriculture issues contin- er education. She began with annual giving ($1,000 ued to develop. During Rep. Childers’ re-election and up), but was soon promoted to the major gifts campaigns, Jenny served as deputy campaign man- team ($100,000-plus). She says that while educa- ager and then campaign manager. When Childers tion operates at a slower pace, she has been able lost his last re-election campaign, Jenny decided to apply what she learned in politics to her current that she wanted to switch to policy. She was of- job. “I’m not afraid to make a ton of phone calls fered the opportunity to join the Farm Credit Coun- and try to work at ‘campaign pace’ as much as pos- cil as a lobbyist, and has been there ever since. In sible, which makes me stand out from my peers. her current position, she has the opportunity to Political campaigns also taught me the value of cul- work on both the political and policy issues im- tivating personal relationships and this has proved portant to Farm Credit and agriculture. Jenny instrumental in major gifts fundraising. ” thinks the beauty of politics is that “you can end up in so many different places. I have no idea where Lyndsay is happy to be out of politics right now, my career will take me or what my future is. But but warns that the political bug never leaves you. that’s why I love politics.”

4

The Election Landscape Post-Election Workshop

On January 27, 2017, members of the more favorable outcome. Panelists also political community, media, academia, discussed the meaning of Trump’s un- and others gathered with students in stoppable rise during the Republican the Political Campaigning program, as primary and the surprising early defeat well as several Political Science under- of Jeb Bush. Beth Reinhard spoke of Scott Simpson, Managing Partner at Resonance Campaigns grads, for our biennial election work- her unconventional experience cover- shop at the Hilton University of . ing then-candidate Trump on the cam- The Direct Mail and Direct As always, the day began with a lively paign trail, and Joel Searby recounted Messaging Business retrospective on the last election his story of running Evan McMullin’s Scott Simpson (naturally emphasizing the presidential Independent campaign for president. Scott’s story in the political realm be- race between Donald Trump and Hilla- gan not unlike others. He was fortu- After a break for lunch, participants ry Clinton), and continued with a dis- nate to get an internship on a congres- and students re-convened to continue sional campaign while still in college, cussion of what we might look forward the discussion with a particular focus moving on from there to manage a to in 2018 and beyond in light of the House of Delegates race in as on the future of both parties. Even last campaign results, both nationally soon as he graduated. though Donald Trump won the elec- and here in Florida. These experiences led to a plethora of tion, some argued that this is a win for opportunities. Scott would soon work Academics included Daniel Smith, Rog- the Democrats in the long run because for the Mayor of Washington, DC, and later for a political software firm, be- er Austin, Susan Mac- it will be easier to fore deciding to apply to the Political Manus, and David Hill. motivate an angry Campaigning Program at UF. These panelists were base in 2018 and After graduating in 2003, Scott worked joined by political prac- 2020. Others argued for several years with a polling firm before leaving to start his own direct titioners Barry Edwards, that the Democratic mail shop. Although he never imagined Becca Guerra, Jim Kane, Party is the one that making such a move so quickly, Scott Jim Kitchens, Steve is divided this time says that he would not change a thing about the path that led him to where Schale, Joel Searby, Elizabeth Sena, and around, not the Republican party. he is now. Scott Simpson. Also present were Beth A variety of topics were covered at the The business is always fast-paced, but Reinhard of The Wall Street Journal the typical day varies depending on the workshop, providing attendees with a and Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay time of year. Scott says that he usually multiplicity of views about how things spends his time “in the office going Times. actually work in the real world of poli- over mail pieces with account execu- tives and designers, or else getting on a In the morning session, the discussion tics. Given the mix of academics and plane to meet with potential candi- centered on the 2016 election and the practitioners, and of Republicans and dates or people who run political or- experiences and impressions of some Democrats, it’s hardly surprising that ganizations.” of the speakers. Apart from a consider- not everyone was on the same page. Overall, Scott sees a lot of potential for growth. The firm’s main objective now ation of campaign strategy (good and Exchanges were always cordial, howev- is to focus on what made it successful bad) on both sides, there was much er, and hearing the different perspec- in the first place, which is “being able speculation about what Clinton might tives undoubtedly proved to be of to talk to the diverse, 21st Century electorate and producing great mail.” have done differently to produce a great value to those who attended.

5

Q & A with Joel Searby on Evan McMullin’s 2016 Campaign

Joel Searby, who lives in nearby Alachua, was Campaign out there last year for something different. Manager for Evan McMullin for President in 2016. McMullin and Searby were disaffected Republicans who Q: How do you think you will approach politics differently ran an independent campaign because they were dissatis- as a result of being a part of the McMullin campaign? How fied with the Republican and Democratic nominees. do you see the future of the Republican party and the two- party system? Q: What was your role in the campaign? A: I am not out to blow up the parties. I think they remain A: I was the campaign manager. In our compressed time- important institutions for our country. But they are deeply line that meant I was in charge of not only finding, inter- broken and colluding to hold out competition. I am open to viewing, and hiring our entire staff but also traveling every- working with Republicans who care more about their coun- where with Evan, leading our amazing team and handling try than their party, who are focused on getting things done just about whatever tasks came up. for the greater good and are not blindly partisan. I’d be open to Democrats of the same belief. But I am not opti- Q: You used to identify as a Republican, correct? Did you mistic. I believe our system needs a fundamental creative ever expect that you would be involved in Independent disruption. Donald Trump is a destructive disruption to the politics? system. Some good will come from that — I believe it. But A: I’ve never felt completely comfortable in Republican we need a disruption that creates something entirely new. politics. Just like I think many people don’t feel completely comfortable in either party. There’s a vast group of people Q: Will Evan run again? And if so, will you be a part of it? in our country who choose to side with a party over a few A: Evan is weighing his options. He’s very interested in serv- key issues they align on but end up feeling very uncomfort- ing the country in some capacity, but is a long way from able with other issues. So while I never planned or aimed making any decisions. We remain close and I have a deep for working so heavily in independent politics, it does feel admiration for his courage and leadership. If we get to work like the right fit for me not only personally but for this time together again, that will be great. in our nation’s history.

Q: What happened that surprised you the most? What went as expected? A: Honestly, what surprised me the most was just how suc- cessful we were. While the general voting public may not see or understand it, what we accomplished in three months was remarkable. We knew it was a near impossible task but Evan felt so strongly about someone standing up, and there were enough of us who felt likewise, that we just stepped out based on faith. We didn’t know if we’d flame out in a week or maybe get some traction. I’m very proud of the traction we did get, and that’s a testament to Evan as a candidate, to our great team, and to the appetite Joel Searby

6

Advanced Campaign Strategy Damien Filer

Damien Filer, Political Director for Pro- students always appreciate the value gress Florida, is the longest-serving of this political communications exer- instructor in the Political Campaigning cise. Where Are They Now? Program’s Advanced Strategy class. While Damien believed that teaching This experienced Florida consultant the class would be a one-time oppor- Joe Pileggi (UF/PC 2005) is Po- says that he originally accepted the tunity, he recently taught his section of litical Director for the National position simply because he loves the Advanced Strategy class for the Republican Congressional Com- teaching and is a big believer in paying mittee in Washington, DC. fifth time. “It’s an honor to be part of it forward. UF’s Political Science department,” he Having had great mentors and teachers says. “I’ll keep coming back as long as David Kochman (UF/PC 1995) through the course of his career, Da- they keep asking.” has moved from campaign work mien believes that it is important to try to being the Director of Com- When asked what his favorite part of and do for others what was done for munications at Blue Cross/Blue teaching the class is, Damien insists Shield of North Carolina. him. Initially invited to UF as a guest that what makes it a great experience lecturer on the constitutional amend- is the students and the feeling of being ment process, he later returned as a able to help future generations of po- Catherine Moar (UF/PC 1993) is conference panelist and ultimately be- the owner of Catherine Moar litical masterminds. “My favorite as- came an MA/PC adjunct instructor. Event Management Company, pect of the class is seeing students take Although he does a lot of training with and has recently also become a the things they’ve learned and put Senior Consultant handling Gov- clients, Damien says that “it’s a luxury them into practice, whether during one ernment Relations & Crisis Com- to be able to work with students over of our press conference or editorial munications with Navigator Ltd. the course of several weeks where we board exercises or, even better, work- in Canada. have time for lectures, discussion, and ing on a campaign in the real world.” hands-on exercises such as mock press conferences.” The mock press confer- Damien strives to instill in his students Jamie Cobb-Voss (UF/PC 2006) that you don’t have to have a natural following years of work in gov- ence is a staple of Damien’s class, and ability as a public speaker, for example, ernment and politics, has start- ed a small business specializing to learn how to be effective as a com- in watersports and boat rentals municator either in front of a crowd or in the US Virgin Islands. on camera. His most memorable piece

of advice is that anyone can succeed in any aspect of politics — regardless of Tim Nurvala (UF/PC 1991) is talent — if they are willing to work for Corporate Vice President at CCS Fundraising, Inc., where he has it. Learning to be effective as a strate- been since 2008. He previously gist, a spokesperson, or in any other worked with non-profit organi- aspect of political communications zations, governmental agencies, largely comes down to practice. and international technology.

7

The University of Florida's Graduate Program in Political Campaigning (UF/PC) is designed to provide students with the skills, insights, and experiences that are critical for success in the ever-changing profession of politics and political consulting. Unlike other programs in professional politics, UF’s M.A. in Political Campaigning combines the best of both academic study and practical experience.

By incorporating academic study in the fields of voting behavior, political participation, public opinion, political parties, and political communication, students are presented with a sound theoretical basis that can be used to better understand the “how” and “why” of political campaigns.

Political Campaigning Program (UF/PC) Phone: 352-273-2377 Dr. Stephen Craig, Director E-mail: [email protected] Department of Political Science http://campaigning.polisci.ufl.edu 234 Anderson Hall/ P.O. Box 117325 University of Florida Gainesville, FL 32611-7325

Yes! I want to support UF/PC Want to help the UF/PC program? Consider making a tax-deductible contribution. We have several endowments that provide scholar- ships to our outstanding MA students.

Political Campaign Program General Fund Political Campaigning Alumni Endowment (Bob) Graham / (Connie) Mack Scholarship Fund Walter (“Skip”) Campbell Leadership Award Ralph E. Gonzalez Independent Spirit Award William R. Hamilton Memorial Endowment

Checks should be payable to the University of Florida Foundation, with the name of the fund on the memo line. Please mail your check to:

Political Campaigning Program c/o Stephen Craig, Director Department of Political Science P.O. Box 117325 University of Florida Gainesville, FL 32611-7325

Like us on Facebook!

facebook.com/UFPoliticalCampaigning 8