NEEDS AND POPULATION MONITORING

©NPM 2016 SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

MOBILITY DYNAMIC AND SERVICES MONITORING REPORT XIII — OCTOBER 2016

WITH UPDATED POPULATION BASELINE FIGURES

Key facts - October 2016  During the month of October, 8,944 individuals in Syria reported damage to their shelters. Out of this total figure, 61% are in Aleppo. 14 Accessible governorates 5,996 Locations  76,050 internally displaced persons (IDPs); half of the them arrived to 66 locations. 99.9% Coverage  Main reasons for displacement: better security situation and 14 Team Leaders availability of basic services. 19 Data Process Assistants  75% of all IDPs fled because of the deterioration of the security 163 Enumerators situation and lack of basic services in their locations of origin. 16,868 Key Informants (KIs)  50% of all IDPs have been displaced for more than one time.

 55,382 individuals returned to their locations of origin with 48% returning to locations in the governorate of Aleppo. 46% returned to the A’zaz district, mainly to Suran and Aghtrin sub-district.  Another 28% returned to Menbij district.  Main reason for returning to the locations of origin in these two districts: improved economic situation  Out of the total number of returnees across Syria, 96% returned to live in their own houses.

 439 locations with more than 1.5 million people have constraints in accessing all four services (health,

water, food, and household items).

 44% of all locations reported challenges in accessing health services, (8.1 million people).  47% mentioned that services are not enough and 27% reported that these are only available at a high cost.  99.8% of the population in Ar-Raqqa or 3.3 million people experienced challenges accessing health services.  Regarding access to water, 24% of all locations in Syria reported challenges in accessing this service, with 52% of these communities mentioning the services are not enough and 40% reporting access to water is too expensive. In Quneitra, 95% of the population or 85,420 people have challenges to access water.  Access to food is a constraint in 21% of all locations, with 69% mentioning it is accessible at a high cost. 73%

SERVICES of the total population in Al-Hasakeh and 66% in Ar-Raqqa are facing challenges to access food items.  Household (HH) items are not easy to access in 23% of all locations, mostly because of the high costs. In Idleb 1.3 million people have constraints to access HH items, which represents 76% of Idleb’s population.

Summary of the overall mobility dynamic situation - The month of October 2016 was characterized by various events that influenced the mobility dynamics in Syria. Overall, this month saw a decrease in the mobility of all population categories in comparison to the September figures. The main reason for this reduction could be the geographical location of the ongoing fights. In fact, most of October clashes and airstrikes were recorded in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Rural Damascus governorates, where people have been affected by shelter damage or have been displaced for the past months. Conse- quently, the number of newly affected individuals and IDPs is lower than in the previous months. Nevertheless, some other governorates reported significant numbers of displacement and return. The number of resident population affected by shelter damage was lower than in September by 13% with a total of 8,944 people. Out of this number, 61% are living in Aleppo. 1,740 individuals or almost 20% from this population category are living in four neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo city, which remains besieged by the Government of Syria (GoS). In northern Aleppo governorate, displacement of individuals occurred at the beginning of the month from the Aghtrin and Suran sub- districts due to clashes between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Most of the IDPs moved to- wards A’zaz. Once the fighting ended, with the FSA pushing ISIL out of both sub-districts, the displaced individuals returned to their loca- tions of origin. As a result, out of the total 55,382 returnees recorded during October, 48% of the returnees were reported in Aleppo alone. The governorate of Hama continued to experience airstrikes and fighting between the GoS and ISIL in the northern rural parts provoking considerable displacement. Suran sub-district in northwest Hama is now reportedly completely empty due to its location at the frontline between the GoS and the FSA. Overall, the number of IDPs decreased to 76,050 individuals which 39% lower than in September 2016. 2

Mobility Dynamic Situation - October 2016 Current resident population affected by shelter damage

During the month of October, a total of 8,944 individuals were affected by shelter damage across Syria, which is lower than the figure rec- orded during September (10,224 persons). Out of this total figure, 61% are in Aleppo, as highlighted in the map below. Jebel Samam sub- district reported the highest number with 4,775 individuals or 53% of the total figures in this sub-district alone. This was followed by Tal- biseh sub-district in Homs with almost 500 affected residents. This means that Jebel Saman has almost ten times more resident population affected by shelter damage than the second most affected sub-district of Talbiseh. NPM field teams reported that 48% of all affected people are currently living in unfinished or abandoned buildings as their homes were destroyed. The bar chart below shows the top five sub-districts with the highest figures of resident population affected by shelter damage.

4,775

493

370

335

260

Returnees

During the month of October, NPM reported 55,382 individuals that returned to their locations of origin. This figure is 28% lower in com- parison to the previous month. As displayed in the map and bar chart below, a significant amount of people returned to their homes in Aleppo governorate, namely 48% of all returnees. Consequently, the top five sub-districts with the highest returnee figures are all located in the governorate of Aleppo. A total of 19,375 individuals or 35% of all returnees returned to the Suran and Aghtrin sub-districts in the A’zaz district. Another 11,910 persons or 22% retuned to Menbij sub-district. According to the key informants, the main reasons for retun- ing to the A’zaz and Menbij districts is the improved economic situation in these locations as well as the end of the clashes between the FSA and ISIL. Another notable number of individuals returned to locations in Al-Hasakeh, Idleb and Homs governorates. Overall, it was re- ported that 53,122 or 96% of the returnees moved back to their own houses.

12,500

6,068

5,070

4,547

3,480

3

Mobility Dynamic Situation - October 2016 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) The month of October saw a decrease in the number of newly displaced persons with 76,050 people being displaced, 39% lower than the IDP figure reported in September. Across Syria, a total of 1,095 locations recorded IDPs which is equivalent to 18% of all locations. Howev- er, 50% of all IDPs are currently living in 66 locations in Syria. The main push factors for leaving the place of origin are the deteriorating security situation which is the main reason for 52% of the IDPs and the lack of basic services in place of origin cited by 23% of the IDPs. Besides, the main pull factors for IDPs to move into these communities are a better security situation which was mentioned by 32% of the IDPs and the availability of basic services reported by 23% of the IDPs. The Dana sub-district in Idleb governorate reported the highest IDP figures at sub-district level with 6,040 IDPs, which represents 8% of all displaced individuals. This was followed by Ras Al Ain sub-district in Al-Hasakeh with 4,707 IDPs as shown in the chart and map below. NPM reported that 50% of all IDPs have been displaced for more than one time. Currently, 32% of the IDPs are living in rented accommodations while 22% of the IDPs are staying with host families.

6,040

4,707

4,165

3,504

3,150

Resident population that fled within Syria The number of resident population that fled within Syria also dropped during October. A total of 46,354 individuals reportedly fled within the country which is almost 50% lower than in September where 87,022 people moved to other locations inside Syria. This is the lowest figure recorded for this population category since May 2016, and the second lowest for the past year. Similar to the IDP population category, many individuals fled to locations in the Aleppo governorate. Consequently, out of the top five sub- districts with the highest number of resident population fleeing to another location within the country, three sub-districts were in Aleppo. Aghtrin sub-district had the highest figure with 8,155 individuals, which was followed by Suran sub-district in Hama governorate with 2,885 individuals. Although this is a significant number, it is much lower than the figure reported in September with 18,069 individuals fleeing out of Suran sub-district. Due to the offensive between the Alnaser army and the GoS that started in the past month, it was reported that Suran sub-district is completely empty due to its location at the frontline between the GoS and the FSA.

8,155

2,885

2,772

2,720

2,655

4

Mobility Dynamic Situation - October 2016 IDPs that left their location In October, NPM reported that 74,341 internally displaced persons left their location during the month. Similarly to all other population categories, the number of IDPs leaving their location of displacement dropped from 107,016 individuals recorded in September to 74,431 in October, which represents 30% less than in the previous month. More than half of the IDPs, namely 57%, reportedly left their location of displacement and returned back to their location of origin. Taking a closer look at the governorate and sub-district level, the map and bar chart below show that Aleppo had the highest figures for this population category. In fact, out of the top five sub-districts, four are in Aleppo and one is in Idleb. Out of the total figure for IDPs leaving their location, 49,638 IDPs or 67% left from 180 locations in the governorate of Aleppo. From those leaving locations in Aleppo, 29,090 or 59% of the IDPs left from the A’zaz district in northern Aleppo. NPM field teams reported that around 64% of those who left their locations in A’zaz district returned to their homes.

17,850

11,050

8,314

3,574

2,612

Resident population that fled out of Syria

The number of resident population that fled out of Syria during the month of October significantly decreased. In September, this number stood at 7,349 individuals, whereas in October 4,849 individuals reportedly fled out of Syria. This represents a drop of 34% in comparison to the previous month. This is also the lowest figure NPM has recorded for this population category for the past year. For instance, in Novem- ber 2015, the figure for this population category stood at 36,702 individuals who fled out of the country, which is almost 8time higher than the number reported for October 2016. As displayed in the map below, those fleeing out of Syria came from many different parts of the country. The sub-district with the highest number of those who moved to another country is Damascus with 377 individuals. This was fol- lowed by the sub-district of As-Sweida with 326 individuals, who most likely fled towards the Syrian-Jordanian border. It is important to note that NPM has no means of verifying the final destination of those who fled out of the country or if they crossed the border or not. Thus, the figures provided in this report are considered as the best estimates given by the local key informant in the location where the resident population was living before they decided to flee out of the country.

377

326

213

129

116

5

Comparison of population categories in the past year

Russian military intervention

Cessation of hostilities Aleppo Besiegement & agreement Jarablus Offensive

Menbij Offensive

Resident popula- Resident population Resident population Returnees IDPs that left tion affected by IDPs fled within Syria fled out of Syria shelter damage The line chart above displays the mobility dynamics’ trend over time of the six population categories that NPM has been moni- toring for the past year. At a first glance, it is clear that the mobility dynamics have alternated in the past 12 months. Through- out the year, all population categories are following similar mobility trends with patterns of increase and decrease. The catego- ries of IDPs and resident population that fled within Syria follow the same mobility trend as shown in the chart above, which means that both categories are influenced by the same push and pull factors in terms of mobility. Consequently, almost all population categories are driven by very similar factors, such as clashes between different armed forces, shelling, the deterio- ration of the economic situation, lack of basic services, etc. The population category that is not following the same trend is the resident population affected by shelter, not only influenced by shelling but by its intensity in particular. Since November 2015, the number of individuals corresponding to this population category did not fluctuate as much as the other four population categories. Furthermore, the population who fled out of Syria is also not following the same trend. In general, both categories dropped from approximately 50,000 individuals in November 2015 to less than 10,000 people in October 2016. Over the past twelve months, all population categories reported a decrease in the number of individuals. The most significant changes can be observed for the IDPs population category and for those who fled their locations to another location within Syr- ia. For instance, the number of newly displaced persons dropped from over 330,000 IDPs in November 2015 to 76,050 IDPs in October 2015, which is 4.3 times lower. Nevertheless, the lowest point was reported in May 2016, with 49,378 IDPs due in part to the impact of the cessation of hostilities agreement between the Government of Syria and opposition forces. A similar situa- tion can be observed for those who fled their locations to another location within the country, which reported over 213,000 individuals fleeing to another location in November 2016. In October, this figure stood at 46,354 individuals which is 80% low- er. The trend over time of the returnee population category also fluctuated during the past year, reaching its peak in March 2016 with more than 96,000 returnees, which may be also related to the cessation of hostilities and the improved security in some areas of the country. In September, another significant wave of displacement was reported, with almost 90,000 individu- als returning to their locations of origin after ISIL was pushed back by FSA with the support of Turkish Army from several com- munities in Aleppo, among other reasons. 6

Updated Population Baseline - October 2016

Access to Services From October 2016, NPM started to collect data on the accessibility of four main services inside Syria¹. Data was gathered on the access to health services, water, food and household items, for both the resident population and the IDP population. Information was collected in all 5,966 locations of Syria in order to better understand the current situation and to highlight the gaps and needs of the population.

¹ For more information about the methodology and questionnaire form used, please refer to the annex. 7

Access to Services Access to Health Services Regarding the access to health services, it was reported that 2,615 locations or 47% of all locations in Syria are currently experi- encing challenges in accessing health ser- vices. This represents around 7.2 million individuals with constraints to health ser- vices. The main reason for facing challeng- es in accessing health services for both the resident population and the IDPs is that health services are available but not enough, as reported in 47% of all locations. The second reason is that the services are too costly which was reported in 27% of the locations. Ar-Raqqa, Al-Hasakeh and Quneitra had the highest percentages of communities reporting challenges in ac- cessing health services. In Ar-Raqqa, 99.8% of the population, which is approximately 570,000 people, is reportedly facing con- straints to access health services. Similar situations can be observed in Quneitra, Al- Hasakeh and Deir-ez-Zor governorates. The map on the left displays the communities across Syria that reported challenges re- garding access to health services. ²

Access to Water Constraints to access water services were reported to a lesser extent in comparison to health services. This could be related to weather and cold temperatures, as less water is needed during the winter. Nevertheless, 24% of all communities in Syria or 1,423 loca- tions reported challenges to access water, which represents 6 million people. The main reason was that water services are available but not sufficient to meet the demand of the resident and IDP population. This reason was mentioned in 52% of all locations having con- straints. The high cost of the water services was reported in 40% of the communities. The map on the right shows that the governorate of Idleb, Al-Hasakeh, and Dar’a are the most affected with the scarcity and high cost of the water services. 68% of the population in Idleb reported to have constraints, which is approx- imately 1.2 million individuals. More than half of the population in Al-Hasakeh and in Aleppo also reported constraints to access water ser- vices. This means that in Aleppo there are around 1.6 million people having challenges in accessing water services. 8 ²The dataset with all data collected on the accessibility of the services is available at the NPM website or upon request.

Access to Services Access to Food Items Access to food items was reported as chal- lenging in 21% of all Syrian communities which is affecting both the resident popula- tion and the displaced individuals. This is equivalent to around 5 million people facing challenges to access food. At the governorate level, 84% of the communities in Dar’a, 66% in Idleb and 48% in Deir-ez-Zor reported con- straints in accessing food items. When looking at the main reasons why people are facing these challenges, high cost of food items was reported in 69% of all affected locations. This was followed by 15% of the communities re- porting that food items are not enough to meet the needs as the second reason. As shown in the map on the left, it is clear that many locations in the governorates of Al- Hasakeh and Idleb reported constraints in accessing food. In Al-Hasakeh, approximately 655,000 individuals (which is 73% of the pop- ulation) reported constraints to access food. In Idleb, around 1.2 million people (67% of the population) are experiencing challenges. In Aleppo, 301,000 individuals (12% of all communities) reported issues with food items not being sufficiently available. Access to Household Items Household (HH) items were accessible with- out any constraints in 77% of all locations in Syria. The remaining 23%, with an estimat- ed population of 6.2 million people, report- ed challenges in accessing HH items. The governorate of Quneitra reported that 89% of its communities have constraints to ac- cess HH items, which was followed by Idleb with 67% and Al-Hasakeh with 44%. The main reasons why the resident and IDP pop- ulation are facing these challenges are re- portedly the high costs of the HH items, cited as the main reason in 61% of the loca- tions. Another 11% mentioned that HH items are available but not enough accord- ing to the needs of the population. Of those being affected by the scarcity of HH items, the governorate of Idleb had the highest number of people with 76% of the entire population which represents more than 1.3 million people. Rural Damascus reported that 2.2 million individuals (32% of the com- munities) are facing challenges, repre- senting a significant number of people in need of improved access to household items. 9

Governorate Profiles For more detailed information about the mobility dynamics and access to services in each Syrian governorate, please visit the following links:

Aleppo Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/aleppo-governorate-profile-october-2016

Al-Hasakeh Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/al-hasakeh-governorate-profile-october-2016

Ar-Raqqa Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/ar-raqqa-profile-october-2016

As-Sweida Profile:http://npm -syria.org/reports/sweida-profile-october-2016

Damascus Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/damascus-profile-october-2016

Dar’a Profile:http://npm -syria.org/reports/dara-profile-october-2016

Deir-ez-Zor Profile:http://npm -syria.org/reports/deir-ez-zor-profile-october-2016

Idleb Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/idleb-profile-october-2016

Hama Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/hama-profile-october-2016

Homs Profile:http://npm -syria.org/reports/homs-profile-october-2016

Lattakia Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/lattakia-profile-october-2016

Rural Damascus Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/rural-damascus-profile-october-2016

Quneitra Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/quneitra-profile-october-2016

Tartous Profile: http://npm-syria.org/reports/tartous-profile-october-2016

Dataset: http://npm-syria.org/data/mobility-dynamic-and-services-monitoring-round-xiii-october-2016

Annex: http://npm-syria.org/reports/annex-mobility-dynamic-and-services-monitoring-october-2016

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