Introduction

Vision NVTA Jurisdictions

In the 21st century, Northern will develop and sustain a multimodal transportation system that enhances quality of life and supports economic growth. Investments in the system will provide effective transportation benefits, promote areas of concentrated growth, manage both demand Town of and capacity, and employ the best technology, joining rail, roadway, bus, Purcellville air, water, pedestrian, and bicycle facilities into an interconnected network Town of that is fiscally sustainable. Leesburg

Loudoun County City of Town of Falls Church Herndon

Town of Arlington Goals Vienna County

City of 1. Enhance quality of life and economic strength of through transportation. Manassas Park City of City of 2. Enable optimal use of the transportation network and leverage the existing network. Fairfax Alexandria

3. Reduce negative impacts of transportation on communities and the environment. Fairfax County

City of Manassas

Prince William County Town of TransAction Timeline Dumfries

PROJECT TIMELINE You Are Here NOVEMBER 2015 SPRING 2016 FALL 2016 WINTER 2016 17 SUMMER 2017 FALL 2017 TransAction Identify Needs Identify Evaluate Review Adoption by the NVTA Kicko and Trends Regional Priorities Regional Priorities Draft Plan

Public Outreach Public Outreach Public Outreach

TransAction Overview NVTA Function

TransAction Overview Performance Based Planning

Goal Objective Performance Measure Weight Total person hours of delay 10% Vision Statement articulates a preferred Transit crowding 5% Reduce congestion and crowding idealized state. experienced by travelers in the region Person hours of congested travel in automobiles 5% Person hours of congested travel in transit focus on priorities 5% Goals vehicles and outcomes the region Goal 1: Congestion severity: maximum travel time ratio 5% desires to move toward. Enhance quality of life and Improve travel time reliability economic strength of Northern Congestion duration 10% Virginia through transportation Percent of jobs/population within 1/2 mile of Objectives are 5% Increase access to jobs, employees, high frequency and/or high performance transit measurable and targeted markets, and destinations Access to jobs within 45 minutes by auto or 5% actions that result in within 60 minutes by transit incremental but tangible Average travel time per motorized trip between 5% advancement toward the Improve connections among and Regional Activity Centers within areas of concentrated growth Walkable/bikeable environment within Regional stated goals. 5% Activity Centers Improve the safety of transportation Safety of the transportation system 5% network Performance Increase integration between modes Goal 2: First and last mile connections 10% Measures are used and systems Enable optimal use of the Provide more route and mode to evaluate potential transportation network and Share of travel by non-single-occupancy vehicle options to expand travel choices and 10% performance of the leverage the existing network modes improve resiliency of the system transportation network. Sustain and improve operation of Person hours of travel caused by 10% increase 5% the regional system in PM peak hour demand They derive from the stated objectives. Weights are Goal 3: applied for each measure to Reduce negative impacts of Reduce transportation-related Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by speed 10% transportation on communities emissions assess overall performance and the environment of the plan.

TransAction Overview Today’s Travel Conditions

2016 Overall Performance Rating Map 2016 Origin-Destination Commute Travel Patterns

Everyone knows that transportation is a major concern in Northern Virginia today. This map highlights some of the existing problems in the region based on the overall weighted performance rating.

The analysis highlights areas with more severe issues along all of the major corridors in the region, as shown in darker blue. These locations correspond with areas of concern identified by the public during TransAction’s outreach efforts.

*

** * Includes trips for the independent cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. ** Includes trips for the independent cities of Fairfax and Falls Church.

Average Trip Length for Northern Virginia

Commute 14.67 miles Non-Commute 6.25 miles

TransAction Overview Draft Plan Performance

Draft Plan Compared to 2040 ‘No Build’ - 2040 ‘No Build’ Overall Performance Rating Draft Plan Overall Performance Rating Overall Performance Rating

We can’t fund everything. The 358 projects identified in the Draft Plan exceed the NVTA’s expected funding available through 2040. Other funding sources, including federal, state, local, and private dollars, may be available to help close the gap. More detailed analysis for the NVTA’s upcoming Six Year Program will identify a subset of high performing projects for funding.

This map shows the overall performance rating for the Northern This map shows the overall performance rating for the This map shows the change in the overalll performance rating Virginia region under the 2040 ‘No Build’ conditions. Areas shown Northern Virginia Region with the implementation of the resulting from the implementation of the Draft Plan. Areas in darker blue perform worse based on this rating, which combines 358 projects in the Draft TransAction Plan. As shown, many shown in green are forecast to experience an improvement in the 15 performance measures. The 2040 ‘No Build’ includes only of the major corridors in Northern Virginia will experience transportation conditions with implementation of the Draft projects that are already fully funded. significant improvements in transportation conditions with the Plan, while areas shown in orange are forecast to perform worse implementation of TransAction. than the 2040 ‘No Build’.

Draft TransAction Plan Draft Plan Performance Transit Crowding

TransAction uses a performance-based planning approach to express policies and goals in quantifiable terms and creates an analytical framework to assess how well different transportation investments meet the TransAction goals. The TransAction performance measures were examined at a fine level of geographic detail for comparisons between conditions in 2040, with and without the Draft Plan.

The Draft +14.1% -0.4% Plan will save the Transit Ridership Miles of Travel average Northern -64.4% -23.5% Virginian more Transit Crowding Hours of Travel than 27 minutes +9.0% -43.8% Condition Benefit Improved < > Decreased each day. Transit Mode Share Hours of Delay Draft Plan Improvement 2040 ‘No Build’ from 2040 ‘No Build’ Hours of Delay Congestion Severity

Condition Benefit Condition Benefit Condition Improved < > Decreased ImprovedImproved << >> DecreasedDecreased

Draft Plan Improvement Draft Plan Improvement 2040 ‘No Build’ 2040 ‘No Build’ from 2040 ‘No Build’ from 2040 ‘No Build’

Draft TransAction Plan Benefits of the Plan

Northern Virginia is forecast to experience significant population and Draft Plan Compared to ‘No Build’ - Job Accessibility employment growth by 2040. The Draft Plan would provide significant improvements in transportation conditions as compared with the 2040 “No Build” baseline. Accessibility is an important consideration in the Draft Plan. This map illustrates how Regional 2016 2040 Change the Draft Plan would increase Totals the number of jobs accessible Population 2.41 M 2.99 M 24% from households in Northern Employment 1.36 M 1.87 M 37% Virginia within 45 minutes by car or 60 minutes by transit.

Draft Plan - Northern Virginia Statistics

2040 Draft Change from Daily Measures 2016 ‘No Build’ Plan ‘No Build’

Transit Boardings 1.0 M 1.4 M 1.6 M 14% increase

Person Trips in Motorized 8.74 M 10.5 M 10.6 M 1% increase Vehicles

Person-Miles of Travel 105 M 125 M 125 M 0.4% decrease

Person-Hours of Travel 3.30 M 5.81 M 4.45 M 24% decrease

Person-Hours of Delay 1.01 M 3.03 M 1.70 M 44% decrease

Person-Hours of Delay 0.42 1.01 0.57 44% decrease per Capita

Service Hours of Crowded 10,800 20,100 7,200 64% decrease No Change Improved Transit

Findings Alternative Future Scenarios

Sensitivity Test Scenarios Future Scenarios: Key Variables for Analysis

The transportation system is in the midst of profound changes. New technology will provide travelers with more choices. We cannot predict how all of these changes will affect our region in the future, but it is important for a 2040 transportation plan to address the potential magnitude of change that Northern Virginians may experience in their daily travel.

Four alternative future scenarios were analyzed as part of the TransAction planning process.

The sensitivity analysis shows that the Draft Plan provides significant benefits for each future scenario

‘No Build’ Performance Under Alternative Future Assumptions Performance of Draft Plan Under Alternative Future Assumptions

2016 2040

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% Person Hours of Delay: 2040 Baseline Compared to 2016 Existing Conditions Person Hours of Delay: Draft Plan Improvement over 2040 ‘No Build’

2016 2040

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 44% 49% 54% 59% 64% 69% 74% 79% Transit Crowding: 2040 Baseline Compared to 2016 Existing Conditions Transit Crowding: Draft Plan Improvement over 2040 ‘No Build’

Current Condition Standard Future Forecast

Standard Future Forecast

Findings Key Findings TransAction Performance by Corridor Segment Northern Virginia faces unprecedented Performance Segment Description levels of travel demand, delay, and transit Rating* crowding by 2040. 8-3 I-395/US 1/VRE Fredericksburg/Blue Yellow Line — I-495 to 65.8 7-3 I-495 — I-95 to Woodrow Wilson Bridge 59.2 6-2 I-66/US 29/US 50/Orange Silver Line — Rt. 28 to I-495 58.1 No single project, program, or policy will 1-4 Rt. 7/Dulles Toll Road/Silver Line — Tysons to US 1 54.7 address all of the region’s transportation 8-2 I-95/US 1/VRE Fredericksburg — Prince William County Line to I-495 54.6 needs. 6-3 I-66/US 29/US 50/Orange Silver Line — I-495 to Potomac River 49.5 8-1 I-95/US 1/VRE Fredericksburg — Stafford County Line to Fairfax County Line 48.5 10-1 Braddock Road/VRE Manassas — Rt. 28 to I-495 45.4 2-1 Loudoun County Parkway/Belmont Ridge Road — Rt. 7 to US 50 43.9 Projected NVTA regional revenues through 11-1 US 50 — Fauquier County Line to City of Fairfax 42.3 2040 would fund less than a quarter of the 3-1 Rt. 28 — Rt. 7 to I-66 40.7 358 candidate regional projects in the Draft 6-1 I-66/US 29/VRE Manassas — Prince William County Line to Rt. 28 40.5 Plan. 1-3 Rt. 7/Dulles Toll Road/Silver Line — Rt. 28 to Tysons 39.9 $ 7-1 I-495 — American Legion Bridge to I-66 39.6 10-2 Columbia Pike/Braddock Road — I-495 to Pentagon 35.8 Emerging trends in technology and travel 1-2 Rt. 7/Dulles Greenway — Town of Leesburg to Rt. 28 34.5 preferences may improve travel conditions in 4-1 — I-66 to I-95 34.2 2040. 7-2 I-495 — I-66 to I-395 33.0 5-2 — US 50 to Rolling Road 31.0 5-1 Fairfax County Parkway — Rt. 7 to US 50 27.0 5-3 Fairfax County Parkway — Rolling Road to US 1 26.4 Segments with the highest performance 3-2 Rt. 28 — I-66 to Fauquier County Line 24.9 ratings are generally those that include 2-3 Rt. 234 — I-66 to I-95 21.0 acute travel issues, high volumes, and major 1-1 Rt. 7/Rt. 9 — West Virginia state line to Town of Leesburg 15.8 candidate regional projects. 9-2 US 15 — Rt. 7 to I-66 13.6 9-1 US 15 — Potomac River to Rt. 7 11.8 Segments with the lowest performance 2-2 North-South Corridor/Bi-County Parkway — US 50 to I-66 7.7 ratings generally have less acute travel 9-3 US 15 — US 50 to US 29 5.8 conditions and/or serve fewer travelers. *Aggregate of weighted measures applied to the projects associated with each TransAction Corridor Segment

Findings What’s in the Draft Plan? TransAction: Draft Plan Elements TransAction focuses much of its analysis on eleven major travel 358 projects corridors in Northern Virginia. Draft Plan Cost: $44.1 billion City of $10-13 billion of this cost Falls Church estimate is associated with project components outside of Northern Virginia, and can only Loudoun Arlington be funded and implemented in partnership with neighboring County County jurisdictions

City of

Fairfax ITS/ Non- Corridor Corridor Name Roadway Transit TDM3 ICM1 Motorized2 1 Route 7/Dulles Toll Road/Route 9/Silver Line 97 66 11 32 3

2 Loudoun County Parkway/ Bi-County Parkway/Route 234 76 21 9 2 1 City of 3 Route 28 54 20 7 3 1 Manassas Park Fairfax 4 Prince William Parkway 26 14 8 0 1 5 Fairfax County Parkway 29 32 9 6 1 City of County I-66/US 29/US 50/Orange-Silver Line/VRE Manassas 73 59 10 36 3 Manassas Prince William City of 6 Alexandria 7 I-495 32 47 13 14 1 County 8 I-95/I-395/US 1/VRE Fredericksburg/Blue-Yellow Line 48 55 14 19 3

TransAction Corridor 9 US 15 32 6 3 1 1 1. Route 7/Dulles Toll Road/Route 9/Silver Line 10 Columbia Pike/Braddock Road/ VRE Manassas 38 59 14 25 3 2. Loudoun County Parkway/Bi-County Parkway/Route 234 3. Route 28 11 US 50 27 23 3 10 1 4. Prince William Parkway 5. Fairfax County Parkway Note: The Project List has projects with multiple transportation modes and within multiple TransAction corridors. 6. I-66/US 29/US 50/Orange-Silver Line/VRE Manassas 1 Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) include technologies to communicate and improve regional travel. 7. I-495 Integrated corridor management (ICM) defines the practice of coordinating travel along different roadways within a major travel corridor. 8. I-95/I-395/US 1/VRE Fredericksburg/Blue-Yellow Line 2 Non-motorized includes bicycle and pedestrian projects that address key connectivity in the region. 3 Travel Demand Management (TDM) is a set of services designed to provide commuters with alternative options to driving alone. 9. US 15 The Draft TransAction Plan includes a regional approach to TDM. 10. Columbia Pike/Braddock Road/VRE Manassas 11. US 50

TransAction Projects Draft TransAction Plan Projects

RAIL IMPROVEMENTS HIGH CAPACITY TRANSIT CORRIDOR IMPROVEMENTS

340

108 67 104 100 32 104 106 108 350 116, 1 299, 356 48 63

71 97

202 65 115, 301, 326, 344 79 66 90, 115, 324, 325, 308 343

11 81 89

286 11 9

306 323

287

Proposed Metrorail Blue Line Core Realignment Existing BRT Proposed Metrorail Blue Line Extension to Potomac Mills Proposed LRT Proposed Metrorail Orange Line Extension to Centreville Proposed BRT 164 172 LRT - Light Rail Transit NOTE: Projects in the inset are not shown in the main map BRT - Bus Rapid Transit NOTE: Projects in the inset are shown in the main map 167 190 304 305 93 11 345 130 302 303 192 129 128 180 185 309 157 16 162 10 153 155 184 234

17 182 24

307 148 Loudoun County 174 152 10 151 7 179 158 144 120 289 181 163 149 175 186 150 144 188 145 183 143 146 193 67 176 161 233 191 121 171 37 338 187 173 346 147 20 314 166 18 332 15 311 12 267 23 119 69 160 178 154 21 212 159 189 228 50 123 8 165 156 5 211 168 225 207 131 27 204 206 310 29 6 219 231 309 209 232 347 15 120 BUS SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS 205 169 106 Fairfax County 208 3 197 2 348 198 114 59 222 92 107 334 58 125 177 32 50 99 1 294 203 118 334 349 295 53 Falls Church 47 110 126 57 80 109 55 350 333 51 170 335 27 296 56 290 63 Arlington 226 66 82 135 215 49 495 19 49 117 357 49 312 33 141 46 84 140 71 4 122 317 76 134 210 101 85 268 48 137 319 109 139 76 245 29 City of Fairfax 97 395 236 254 244 318 14, 313 216 96 136 95 79 65 68 76 14, 313 230 52 22 44 98 196 7 249 28 43 94 109 28 194 Alexandria 31 55 351 337 300 83 78 329 355 78 9 252 123 336 196 353 292 330 78 227 54, 132 214 36 293 66 247 239 328 236 45 352 260 255 240 70 250 267 272 273 358 42 315 105 127 238 64 354 45 220 142 253 261 200 127 266 221 269 40 1 331 30 73 235 Manassas Park 224 277 242 41 38 315 279 223 77 229 298 34 218 258 286 89 199 110 276 248 320 278 124 297 Manassas 74 25 263 297 213 26 285

284 75 39 NOTE: Projects in the inset are not shown in the main map 316 264

ITS/ICM CORRIDOR IMPROVEMENTS AND TDM FOCUS AREAS Prince William County 283

259 243 244 282 270 322

271 95 217 281 35 280 61, 62, 340 327 81 243 340 262 103, 340 234 241 291 287 61, 62, 340 257 256

274 62, 340 61, 62, 340 251 BIKE AND PEDESTRIAN NETWORK IMPROVEMENTS

275 321 113, 342 246 193, 111 265 0 3 6 340 87 ITS/ICM Projects Miles 88 TDM Focus Areas (Project # 341) 133 Tysons 340 91, 340 237 Arlington 91, 339, 340 60 Alexandria 288 138 112 Springfield Fairfax - I-66 72 Fairfax - Route 1 Fairfax - Falls Church 195 NVTA TransAction Project Metrorail Station Herndon - Reston 86 Rosslyn - Ballston 333 TransAction Project ID Metrorail Eastern Prince William 86 ITS - Intelligent Transportation Systems 95 50 28 Highway Symbols Western Prince William ITS - Intelligent Transportation Systems VRE Station ICM - IntegratedICM - Integrated Corridor Corridor Management Management Eastern Loudoun - Leesburg NOTE: Projects in the inset are not shown in the main map NOTE: Projects in the inset are not shown in the main map Jurisdiction Boundary TDM - TravelTDM - TDemandravel Demand Management Management VRE Line

TransAction Projects Once adopted as Northern Virginia’s long range transportation plan, the NVTA can What Happens Next? use TransAction to develop a Six Year Program, providing regional funds to implement transportation improvement projects across the region.

Public Adopt Six Year Implement Comment TransAction Program Projects

At key decision points, the NVTA will:

Use TransAction to Develop the Six Year Monitor Emerging Trends. Program. Monitor emerging trends and report significant • Define needs consistent with regional priorities and geographies. changes on an annual basis. • Work across jurisdictional boundaries to address transportation • Consider additional analysis to identify needs. Work with jurisdictions and stakeholders on near term projects that complement emerging trends approaches such as: • Explore proactive policy guidance associated with beneficial elements of emerging trends, • New, improved, and expanded transit services; such as: • New regional TDM strategies that complement existing • Public education regarding new programs; transportation technologies; • New and existing technology systems; • Integration of human-driven and

• • Completion of ongoing roadway and multimodal projects. Connected/Autonomous Vehicles in • Emphasize the importance of maximizing use of additional different geographies across the region; funding sources. • Development of complementary transit • Assure that each project improves mobility for all applicable and shared mobility services. modes and users.

Next Steps