'(9(/230(172)6(',0(17$7,216,/7$7,21 ,03$,50(17 7+5(6+2/'6,11(:0(;,&2
1(: 0(;,&2(19,5210(17'(3$570(17 685)$&(:$7(548$/,7<%85($8
0$5&+ 2YHUYLHZ
7KLVGRFXPHQWSURYLGHVDVXPPDU\RIWKHVHYHQVWHSSURFHVVWKH1HZ0H[LFR(QYLURQPHQW 'HSDUWPHQW 10(' 6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\%XUHDX 6:4% LQLWLDWHGDQGKHOSHGFRPSOHWHLQ RUGHUWRGHWHUPLQHWKUHVKROGVIRUEHGGHGVHGLPHQWVLQSHUHQQLDOZDGHDEOHVWUHDPVLQ1HZ 0H[LFR7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVSURFHVVZHUHXVHGWRUHYLVHWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQVLOWDWLRQDVVHVVPHQW SURFHVVIRUGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH,QWHJUDWHG/LVW 10('6:4% 7KLVHIIRUW ZDVQHFHVVDU\WRVXSSRUWDQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHState of New Mexico Standards for Interstate and Intrastate Surface WatersQDUUDWLYHVWDQGDUGIRUERWWRPGHSRVLWVIRXQGDW10$& 10:4&&
A. Bottom Deposits and Suspended or Settleable Solids: (1) Surface waters of the state shall be free of water contaminants including fine sediment particles (less than two millimeters in diameter), precipitates or organic or inorganic solids from other than natural causes that have settled to form layers on or fill the interstices of the natural or dominant substrate in quantities that damage or impair the normal growth, function, or reproduction of aquatic life or significantly alter the physical or chemical properties of the bottom.
,Q WKH 6:4% 6HGLPHQW :RUNJURXS ZDV IRUPHG WR UHYLHZ WKH SUHYLRXV VHGLPHQWDWLRQVLOWDWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW SURWRFRO DQG UHFRPPHQG DQ DSSURDFK IRU UHYLVLRQ $V D UHVXOWRIZRUNJURXSGLVFXVVLRQV6:4%DQG86(3$5HJLRQFRQWUDFWHGZLWK7HWUD7HFK,QF WR GHYHORS VHGLPHQW WUDQVODWRUV RU WKUHVKROGV 7KH FRQWUDFWRU JHQHUDOO\ IROORZHG WKH VWHSV SURYLGHG LQ 86(3$¶V )UDPHZRUN IRU GHYHORSLQJ VXVSHQGHG DQG EHGGHG VHGLPHQW 6$%6 ZDWHUTXDOLW\FULWHULD 86(3$ 6HYHUDOVWDIIIURP7HWUD7HFK,QF86(3$5HJLRQ DQG6:4%ZRUNHGDVDWHDPWRFRPSOHWHWKLVHIIRUW
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
7KHDSSURDFKWRLGHQWLI\LQJSRWHQWLDOVHGLPHQWUHODWHGEHQFKPDUNVLQ1HZ0H[LFRIROORZHG VHYHQEDVLFVWHSVEDVHGRQWKH86(3$)UDPHZRUNIRUGHYHORSLQJ6$%6ZDWHUTXDOLW\FULWHULD 86(3$
5HYLHZEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ $VVHPEOHGDWDVHWVZLWKSRWHQWLDOVHGLPHQWLQGLFDWRUV (VWDEOLVKUHIHUHQFHVLWHV &ODVVLI\VLWHV &KDUDFWHUL]HVHGLPHQWV 'HVFULEHVWUHVVRUUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSV 5HFRPPHQGEHQFKPDUNVRUWKUHVKROGV
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
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
6WHS 5HYLHZEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ 6WHS $VVHPEOHGDWDVHWVZLWKSRWHQWLDOVHGLPHQWLQGLFDWRUV 6WHS (VWDEOLVKUHIHUHQFHVLWHV 6WHS &ODVVLI\VLWHV 6WHS &KDUDFWHUL]HVHGLPHQWV 6WHS 'HVFULEHVWUHVVRUUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSV 6WHS 5HFRPPHQGEHQFKPDUNVRUWKUHVKROGV &RQFOXVLRQDQG5HVHDUFK1HHGV 5HIHUHQFHV&LWHG $33(1',;$ $EEUHYLDWLRQV $33(1',;% 6:4%¶V3UHYLRXV6HGLPHQWDWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW3URWRFRO
6WHS 5HYLHZEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ
In this step, the effects of excessive sedimentation/siltation on aquatic life are described, as well as the challenges of determining specific numeric thresholds because sedimentation can have both natural and anthropogenic components.
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
)LJXUH&RQFHSWXDOGLDJUDPRIEHGGHGVHGLPHQWDWLRQHIIHFWV WDNHQIURP86(3$±JUDSKLFFRXUWHV\RI: 0XQQV86(3$
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
6HGLPHQWVFDQQRWEHWUHDWHGDVLQWURGXFHGSROOXWDQWVVXFKDVSHVWLFLGHVEHFDXVHWKH\DUHQRW XQLTXHO\JHQHUDWHGWKURXJKKXPDQLQSXWRUGLVWXUEDQFH5DWKHUVHGLPHQWVDUHFRPSRQHQWVRI QDWXUDOV\VWHPVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWHYHQLQSULVWLQHVHWWLQJVDQGWRZKLFKVWUHDPRUJDQLVPVKDYH HYROYHGDQGDGDSWHG7KHUHIRUHWKHGHWHFWLRQRIDVHGLPHQWLPEDODQFHLVPRUHGLIILFXOWWKDQ GHWHFWLQJDQDEVROXWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRUSHUFHQWDJHWKDWUHSUHVHQWVDFOHDUELRORJLFDOLPSDFW
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
6WHS $VVHPEOHGDWDVHWVZLWKSRWHQWLDOVHGLPHQWLQGLFDWRUV
In this step, datasets are considered, selected, and collated in order to generate one comprehensive dataset of site characteristic, biological, and associated sediment habitat data sufficient for statistical analyses.
'DWDVRXUFHVFRQVLGHUHGIRUDQDO\VLVRIVHGLPHQWHIIHFWVLQ1HZ0H[LFRLQFOXGHGWKH(FRORJLFDO 'DWD$SSOLFDWLRQ6\VWHP ('$6 PDLQWDLQHGE\6:4%DQGPXOWLSOHVHGLPHQWGDWDVHWV FRPSLOHGE\6:4%86(3$DQGQHLJKERULQJVWDWHV 7DEOH 'DWDIURPVWDWHVQHLJKERULQJ 1HZ0H[LFRZHUHXVHGLIVLWHVZHUHLQDQHFRUHJLRQWKDWZDVFRQWLJXRXVZLWKWKRVHLQ1HZ 0H[LFRDQGWKHVLWHZDVZLWKLQPLOHVRIWKHVWDWHERUGHU JHQHUDOO\ZLWKLQEXW H[WHQGLQJWRLQWKHHDVWDQGQRUWKHDVWRUDVQHHGHGWRLQFOXGHVLWHVLQWKHOHVVGHQVHO\ VDPSOHGSODLQVDQG[HULFHFRUHJLRQV
7DEOH'DWDVHWVXVHGLQDQDO\VHV
'DWDVHW 6DPSOLQJ *,6DQDO\VLVZDVFDUULHGRXWE\86(3$5HJLRQWRFKDUDFWHUL]HODQGXVHJHRORJ\DQG FOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVDWHDFKVLWHDQGLQWKHVLWHFDWFKPHQWV+XPDQGLVWXUEDQFHYDULDEOHV DQDO\]HGDWHDFKVLWHLQFOXGHGODQGXVHODQGFRYHUGDPVURDGGHQVLW\DQGURDG±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³/5%6´ 7KHSHUFHQWDJHRIV\VWHPDWLFDOO\VHOHFWHG ZLWKUDQGRPVWDUW VWUHDPEHG VXEVWUDWHSDUWLFOHVWKDWDUHPP VLOWFOD\RUPXFN QRWJULWW\ZKHQ 3HUFHQW)LQHV UXEEHGEHWZHHQILQJHUV 5DQGRPSDUWLFOHVZHUHVHOHFWHGXVLQJHLWKHUD UHDFKZLGHRUWDUJHWHGULIIOHSHEEOHFRXQW$EEUHYLDWHG³)LQHV´ 7KHSHUFHQWDJHRIV\VWHPDWLFDOO\VHOHFWHG ZLWKUDQGRPVWDUW VWUHDPEHG VXEVWUDWHSDUWLFOHVWKDWDUHPPLQGLDPHWHU5DQGRPSDUWLFOHVZHUH 3HUFHQW6DQG )LQHV VHOHFWHGXVLQJHLWKHUDUHDFKZLGHRUWDUJHWHGULIIOHSHEEOHFRXQW $EEUHYLDWHG³6D)Q´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³FULWLFDO´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n this step, reference sites are determined. This step provides information on the expected, reference, or best available condition, and allows for comparison to other sites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³RWKHU´3ODFLQJVLWHVLQWKLV³RWKHU´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n this step, potential classes are explored in order to group similar sites into categories or site classes for benchmark development. This enables reference conditions to be defined for each site class so it is not necessary to identify individual reference sites for each study site in order to determine impairment. 6LWHFODVVLILFDWLRQLVWKHSURFHVVE\ZKLFKQDWXUDOJUDGLHQWVDPRQJVLWHVDUHH[DPLQHGWRLGHQWLI\ DSSURSULDWHFODVVHVRU³ELQV´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²0RXQWDLQV3ODLQVDQG;HULF²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a priori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a priori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¶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¶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n this step, bedded sediment indicators at reference sites are analyzed to determine potential threshold levels for sedimentation/siltation impairment determination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±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n this step, the biological responses to sediment conditions are explored using several statistical techniques. Three analytical techniques were use -- reference distributions, quantile regression, and change-point analysis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² WKDWLVWKHPD[LPXPELRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQJHQHUDOO\IDOOVEHQHDWKDVORSLQJOLQHLQDVFDWWHUSORW RIELRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQDJDLQVWWKHGLVWXUEDQFHYDULDEOH3RLQWVWKDWDUHQRWDORQJWKHVORSH LQ WKHKHHORIWKHZHGJH UHSUHVHQWVLWHVZLWKZRUVHELRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQVGXHWRIDFWRUVQRW UHSUHVHQWHGRQWKHxD[LV7KHVORSHUHSUHVHQWVELRORJLFDOSRWHQWLDO SORWWHGRQWKHyD[LV LQ UHODWLRQWRWKHGLVWXUEDQFHRILQWHUHVW SORWWHGRQWKHx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n this step, potential sedimentation/siltation benchmarks are recommended for each site class based on the results of step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¶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³DJUHHPHQW´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±WKH\KDGVLPLODUVHGLPHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV±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± %U\FH6$*$/RPQLFN\DQG35.DXIPDQQ3URWHFWLQJVHGLPHQWVHQVLWLYHDTXDWLF VSHFLHVLQPRXQWDLQVWUHDPVWKURXJKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIELRORJLFDOO\EDVHGVWUHDPEHG VHGLPHQWFULWHULD-RXUQDORIWKH1RUWK$PHULFDQ%HQWKRORJLFDO6RFLHW\ ± &DGH%6-:7HUUHOODQG5/6FKURHGHU (VWLPDWLQJHIIHFWVRIOLPLWLQJIDFWRUVZLWK UHJUHVVLRQTXDQWLOHV(FRORJ\ &OHYHODQG:6 5REXVWORFDOO\ZHLJKWHGUHJUHVVLRQDQGVPRRWKLQJVFDWWHUSORWV-RXUQDO RI$PHULFDQ6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ &RUPLHU60-)3DXO5/6SHKDU36KDZ$OOHQ:-%HUU\DQG*:6XWHU,, 8VLQJ)LHOG'DWDDQG:HLJKWRI(YLGHQFHWR'HYHORS:DWHU4XDOLW\&ULWHULD,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWDQG0DQDJHPHQW ± -DFREL*=0'-DFREL07%DUERXUDQG(:/HSSR%HQWKLFPDFURLQYHUWHEUDWH VWUHDPFRQGLWLRQLQGLFHVIRU1HZ0H[LFRZDGHDEOHVWUHDPV -HVVXS% D'HYHORSPHQWRI%HGGHG6HGLPHQW%HQFKPDUNVIRU2UHJRQ6WUHDPV3UHSDUHG IRU2UHJRQ'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\DQG86(3$5HJLRQ -HVVXS% E5HFDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH0DFURLQYHUWHEUDWH0XOWL0HWULF,QGH[IRU&RORUDGR 3UHSDUHGIRUWKH&RORUDGR'HSDUWPHQWRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG(QYLURQPHQW:DWHU4XDOLW\ &RQWURO'LYLVLRQ±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tate of New Mexico Standards for Interstate and Intrastate Surface Waters.10$&DVDPHQGHG WKURXJK-DQXDU\$YDLODEOHDW IWS IWSQPHQYVWDWHQPXVZZZVZTE6WDQGDUGV10$&,QWHJUDWHG SGI 2SSHUPDQ--.$/RKVH&%URRNV10.HOO\DQG$00HUHQOHQGHU,QIOXHQFHRI ODQGXVHRQILQHVHGLPHQWLQVDOPRQLGVSDZQLQJJUDYHOVZLWKLQWKH5XVVLDQ5LYHU%DVLQ &DOLIRUQLD&DQDGLDQ-RXUQDORI)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDWLF6FLHQFHV ±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»»5 »86 (QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\2IILFHRI5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW:DVKLQJWRQ '&$YDLODEOHDW KWWS ZZZHSDJRYZHGSDJHVSXEOLFDWLRQVDXWKRUHG(3$5 (0$36:)LHOG2SHUDWLRQV0DQXDO3HFNSGI 4LDQ66.LQJ565LFKDUGVRQ&-7ZRVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHGHWHFWLRQRI HQYLURQPHQWDOWKUHVKROGV(FRORJLFDO0RGHOLQJ 5'HYHORSPHQW&RUH7HDP5 $/DQJXDJHDQG(QYLURQPHQWIRU6WDWLVWLFDO&RPSXWLQJ 5)RXQGDWLRQIRU6WDWLVWLFDO&RPSXWLQJ9LHQQD$XVWULD$YDLODEOHDW KWWS ZZZ5 SURMHFWRUJ 6WRGGDUG-/'93HFN$52OVHQ'3/DUVHQ-9DQ6LFNOH&3+DZNLQV50 +XJKHV75:KLWWLHU*/RPQLFN\$7+HUOLK\35.DXIPDQQ6$3HWHUVRQ3 /5LQJROG6*3DXOVHQDQG5%ODLU(QYLURQPHQWDO0RQLWRULQJDQG $VVHVVPHQW3URJUDP (0$3 ZHVWHUQVWUHDPVDQGULYHUVVWDWLVWLFDOVXPPDU\(3$ 52IILFHRI5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW86(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ $JHQF\:DVKLQJWRQ'& 6WRGGDUG-/'3/DUVHQ&3+DZNLQV5.-RKQVRQDQG5+1RUULV6HWWLQJ H[SHFWDWLRQVIRUWKHHFRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQRIVWUHDPV WKHFRQFHSWRIUHIHUHQFHFRQGLWLRQV (FRORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV ± 6XWWOH.%0(3RZHU-0/HYLQH&0F1HHO\+RZILQHVHGLPHQWLQULYHUEHGV LPSDLUVJURZWKDQGVXUYLYDORIMXYHQLOHVDOPRQLGV(FRORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV ± 86(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\ 86(3$ 1XWULHQW&ULWHULD7HFKQLFDO*XLGDQFH 0DQXDO 5LYHUVDQG6WUHDPV2IILFHRI:DWHURIILFHRI6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\(3$ % 86(3$)UDPHZRUNIRUGHYHORSLQJVXVSHQGHGDQGEHGGHGVHGLPHQW 6$%6 ZDWHU TXDOLW\FULWHULD2IILFHRI:DWHU2IILFHRI5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW(3$5 :DWHUV7) 6HGLPHQWLQVWUHDPV²6RXUFHVELRORJLFDOHIIHFWVDQGFRQWURO$PHULFDQ )LVKHULHV6RFLHW\0RQRJUDSK%HWKHVGD 0' $PHULFDQ)LVKHULHV6RFLHW\S :RRG3-DQG3'$UPLWDJH %LRORJLFDOHIIHFWVRIILQHVHGLPHQWLQWKHORWLF HQYLURQPHQW(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW ±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¶V3UHYLRXV6HGLPHQWDWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW3URWRFRO 7KHEHORZFRQWDLQVDEULHIGHVFULSWLRQRI6:4%¶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³%HQWKLF0DFURLQYHUWHEUDWH%LRDVVHVVPHQWV 6WUHDPV ´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ampling Surface and Subsurface Particle-size Distributions in Wadable Gravel-and-Cobble-Bed Streams for Analysis in Sediment Transport, Hydraulics, and Streambed Monitoring. *HQ7HFK5HSRUW5056*758QLWHG 6WDWHV )RUHVW6HUYLFH5RFN\0RXQWDLQ5HVHDUFK6WDWLRQ)RUW&ROOLQV&RORUDGR -DFREL*=0'-DFREL07%DUERXU(:/HSSR%HQWKLF0DFURLQYHUWHEUDWH6WUHDP &RQGLWLRQ,QGLFHVIRU1HZ0H[LFR:DGHDEOH6WUHDPV-DFRELDQG$VVRFLDWHVDQG7HWUD 7HFK,QFIRU1HZ0H[LFR(QYLURQPHQW'HSDUWPHQW6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\%XUHDX 1HZ0H[LFR(QYLURQPHQW'HSDUWPHQW6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\%XUHDX 10('6:4% Procedures for Assessing Use Attainment for the State of New Mexico Integrated Clean Water Act §303(d) List and §305(b) Water Quality Monitoring and Assessment Report 6DQWD)H1HZ0H[LFR 3ODINLQ-/07%DUERXU.'3RUWHU6.*URVVDQG50+XJKV 86 (QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\Rapid Bioassessment Protocols for Use in Streams and Rivers.2IILFHRI:DWHU5HJXODWLRQVDQG6WDQGDUGV:DVKLQJWRQ'&(3$