CONFIDENTIAL: Apollo Bay Resort Socio-Economic Impact Assessment

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... Page 3

1. INTRODUCTION ...... Page 7 1.1 Location and Site ...... Page 7 1.2 Scope ...... Page 7

2. LOCAL TOURISM AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ...... Page 9

3. DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PROFILE ...... Page 8

4. APOLLO BAY RESORT FACILITIES AND ARRANGEMENTS ...... Page 18 4.1 Construction Phase ...... Page 18 4.2 Operations ...... Page 18

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This document presents results from an assessment of expected economic contribution and identifiable social impacts from a proposed Apollo Bay Resort development at 275 Barham River Road, near Apollo Bay.

Calculations in this report deal with ‘economic contribution’ generated by financial flows added to the Apollo Bay District (Otway SA2) regional economy by the direct and ancillary activities of the proposed Apollo Bay Resort. Social impacts have been quantified and discussed to the extent possible from available sources of information, and are limited to jobs, population, housing and households, health services, and retail/commercial activities.

1 Based on the ABS 2017 Business Register 2 Estimated from Australian Bureau of Statistics 2015-2016 Tourist Accommodation data for tourist establishments, including hotels and resorts (with 15 or more rooms), motels, private hotels and guest houses (with 15 or more rooms), and serviced apartments (with 15 or more units).

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3 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2015-2016 Tourist Accommodation data for tourist establishments. 4 The Otway SA2 is the Otway Statistical Area Level 2, defined by the Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS), used as representative of the Apollo Bay district. 5 The Victorian Western Tourism Region includes the following districts (SA2s): Lorne-Anglesea, Torquay, Portland, Camperdown, Colac, Corangamite-South, Moyne-West, Otway, Warrnambool-North, Warrnambool-South. 6 Tourism Research Australia LGA Profiles 2016

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 Development of the proposed Apollo Bay Resort would impact on the pace of life in the Apollo Bay district. For some residents this impact will be considered beneficial; slowing the district’s population decline, increasing the availability of health services, adding to the range of commercial and personal services, offering new job and/or contracting opportunities, and facilitating greater volumes of traffic and activity. For others, these impacts would add real or perceived undesirable lifestyle changes. Bringing new levels of visitation and new residents is an inescapable outcome from the proposed Resort development, and there will be existing residents for whom this is detrimental to their existing way of life.

 a spectacular coastline, clear surf beaches, rainforests, the Great Ocean Walk, Cape Otway National Park, Cape Otway Lighthouse, the ‘Otway Fly’ and a town environment which combines country lifestyles with resort attractions and activities. Apollo Bay township alone has 48 commercial tourist accommodation enterprises although, other than the caravan parks, most are quite small, with only 9 offering more than 15 rooms. The Great Ocean Road is one of Australia’s best-known tourism destinations but is also known as a destination with relatively ‘low yield’ in terms of the length of stay and tourism expenditure in the region. The proposed Apollo Bay Resort is an accommodation and tourist service enterprise which would, in part7, help to increase tourism yield in the region.

 The proposed Apollo Bay Resort would be geared to new visitors, at the higher-spending spectrum of the tourism market, not competing directly across all tourism segments. Some competition for accommodation and food service custom, with existing businesses, is inevitable. Whether this will threaten the viability of any specific operator is unknown. The Resort’s proposed alliances, referral network, and commitment to local suppliers, has been explicitly designed to support, rather than compete with, existing local commercial operators.

7 The ‘low yield’ in the region is strongly influenced by international coach visitation, with many coaches making return daytrips only. Low yield is not just a function of the quality and availability of accommodation. It also stems from the range of activities and attractions available. 8 Apollo Bay ‘State Suburb’ 9 Apollo Bay District or Colac SA2 10 2006 to 2016 11 Victoria in Future, 2016 12 The Victoria in Future Small Area (VIFSA) of Apollo Bay-Gellibrand District is used as a comparable area with Otway SA2 for projections data only. VIFSA’s differ slightly from SA2’s, and the VIF 2016 projections were prepared prior to release of ABS 2016 Census results. In the case of Otway SA2 and VIFSA Apollo Bay-Gellibrand there is a close correlation, and projection assumptions (births, deaths and migration) are considered applicable.

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2016 2031 (without 2031 (with Apollo Bay Apollo Bay Resort) Resort) Jobs 1,603 1,204 1,516 Working Population 2,697 2,026 2,551 Total Resident Population 3,429 2,904 3,243

13 Victoria in Future 2016. The Victoria in Future Small Area (VIFSA) of Apollo Bay-Gellibrand District is used as a comparable area with Otway SA2 for projections data only. VIFSA’s differ slightly from SA2’s, and the VIF 2016 projections were prepared prior to release of ABS 2016 Census results. In the case of Otway SA2 and VIFSA Apollo Bay-Gellibrand there is a close correlation, and projection assumptions (births, deaths and migration) are considered applicable.

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1.1 LOCATION AND SITE

This document presents results from a brief assessment of expected economic contribution and social impacts from a proposed Apollo Bay Resort development at 275 Barham River Road, near Apollo Bay. The site consists of two titles over 104.6 hectares, located 3.6 km south west of the town of Apollo Bay. It is within a Rural Activity Zone (RAZ), one of few sites along the Great Ocean Road which are suitably zoned to support such a development as that proposed. Two existing houses and an operational Function Reception Centre currently occupy the site.

The Architectural Design Report for the concept design of Apollo Bay Resort notes that the design “encapsulates a strong connection to Apollo Bay itself and its past history, but also attempts to build a strong future heritage for Colac Otway Shire via high quality architecture, landscape and engineering design”. Further, the design attempts to “create a project that preserves, enhances and features all of the natural aspects of the location, emphasising the uniqueness of the land, sea and sky- highlighting the visual features of the Otway Ranges, Bass Straight and our Southern Skies."

The design of buildings has been chosen to follow landscape contours and to step down the slope in a manner “akin to a European hill village”. A key aspect of the development is inclusion of facilities within the Wellness Centre component which provide access to the broader community.

The site and the development will primarily be visible from the Barham River Road leading to the site. Additional views of the development will be possible from limited vantage points from residential properties on the periphery of Apollo Bay and Marengo, and from a short section of the Great Ocean Road. The Architectural Design Report suggests the development will have “a negligible impact on the visual amenity of viewers. The building's siting and the location of the development almost a kilometre from the nearest public view, and more than 2 kilometres from the nearest built up residential area, make the impact virtually nil. The building is sited away from the high ridge line to the southern end of the site, and obscured from view in most directions by existing topography and vegetation. The development's impact is reduced due to distance from potential viewers and limited by height, bulk and scale. Selection of non-reflective cladding materials further reduces the potential visual impact of the building on the visual amenity of viewers.

The assessment in this report deals with ‘economic contribution’ generated by the financial flows added to the Apollo Bay District (Otway SA2) regional economy by the direct and ancillary expenditure created by the activities of the proposed Apollo Bay Resort. The measurement of economic contribution of the Apollo Bay Resort reveals the economic significance of the venture relative to other local businesses and organisations but some of the contribution could be substituted by local residents, existing tourism visitors, and businesses re-directing their spending to other attractions/activities, if the Apollo Bay Resort did not proceed. Economic impact, always a lesser amount than economic contribution, is the net-spending generated in the region by visitors, residents, businesses and other organisations that would not normally be made within the region. That is, people visiting the region, or extending the duration of their visit to the region, and non- local businesses and other organisations spending money in the region due to Apollo Bay Resort’s activities.

Social impacts have been quantified and discussed to the extent possible from available sources of information, and are limited to jobs, population, housing and households, health services, and retail/commercial activities. The assessment has not encompassed interviews with residents or other stakeholders on their perceptions or preferences.

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A range of data sources were accessed in deriving estimates of economic contribution and social impacts. These included:  Apollo Bay Resort Architectural Design Report, Spowers, July 2017  Panoramas Resort Apollo Bay, Feasibility Study Upgrade 7, 2018  WT Partnership Apollo Bay Resort Budget Construction Cost – Draft, September 2017  Irwinconsult Apollo Bay Resort, Opinion of Probable Infrastructure Services Costs August 2017  Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing Data 2006 to 2016 for Colac Otway Shire, Otway SA2 and Apollo Bay SSC  Australian Bureau of Statistics Business Register 2017  Australian Bureau of Statistics, Tourist Accommodation Victoria, 2015-16  Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria in Future, 2016 to 2031  Tourism Research Australia LGA and regional profiles  IBISWorld industry reports.

Note that the estimates of economic contribution and social impacts presented throughout this document have been derived from the above sources and they incorporate many assumptions about events which could occur in the future. The quantitative estimates are based on targeted operational activities. These estimates are neither forecasts, nor necessarily “high probability” outcomes. The report has been prepared to show the possible outcomes of certain courses of action using information supplied by the developer of the proposed Apollo Bay Resort. Street Ryan and Associates Pty Ltd accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information or estimates presented, or for decisions taken as a result of, any material presented in this report.

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2. LOCAL TOURISM AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE

Like most other regional Victorian local government areas, Colac Otway Shire’s social and economic structures are in transition. The economy is transitioning away from agricultural dependence14 toward a service dominated economy and the social structure is reflecting broader social trends of population ageing, reduced household size, and regional migration which is now driven by lifestyle choices as well as opportunities for employment.

Contemporary issues such as climate change, population ageing and global trade are changing the economic landscape dramatically and challenging the foundations of economic development theory and practice. At the same time, new investments and businesses are often actively and justifiably challenged, and frequently opposed, by local communities when there is concern that the price of growth is too high if it has a major impact, or the risk of an impact, on: - Local lifestyles or enjoyment of lifestyles - Environment, cultural or heritage assets - Health, safety and security.

Communities throughout regional Victoria, and in Colac Otway and Apollo Bay in particular, are facing these challenges. Unlike many other local government areas in regional Victoria, Colac Otway is part of the iconic Great Ocean Road and Otway tourism region and this offers new opportunities for growth and development which could potentially offset other forces of rural decline if the opportunities are supported and sustainable.

Colac Otway Shire has outstanding tourism assets: Spectacular coastline, rainforests, lakes, towns and villages, combining country living with seaside attractions and activities. Within the Shire, Apollo Bay district also boasts these assets and sections of the Great Ocean Walk, Cape Otway National Park, Cape Otway Lighthouse, the ‘Otway Fly’ and a town environment which combines country lifestyles with attractions and activities.

The Shire’s tourism accommodation infrastructure includes a range of backpacker lodges, camping/caravan parks, bed and breakfasts, hotels/motels, cottages, resorts and self-contained units. Table 2.1 shows Apollo Bay township alone has 48 commercial tourist accommodation enterprises although, other than the caravan parks, most are quite small, with only 9 offering more than 15 rooms. The Great Ocean Road is one of Australia’s best-known tourism destinations but is also known as a destination with relatively ‘low yield’ in terms of the length of stay and tourism expenditure in the region. The proposed Apollo Bay Resort is an accommodation and tourist service enterprise which would, in part, help to increase tourism yield in the region.

Table 2.1 Tourist Accommodation Establishments in Apollo Bay, 2018

Accommodation Type Number % of Properties Hotel/ Motel* 11 22.9% Guest Houses, Lodges and Backpackers 7 14.6% Caravan Parks 5 10.4% Bed and Breakfasts 9 18.8% Apartments and Cottages* 16 33.3% Total 48 100.0% Note: * Only 9 of the total properties across these categories have been assessed by the ABS as having 15+ rooms

14 Although Colac itself remains an important regional centre for agribusiness and food processing.

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Table 2.2 presents details of employment by industry in Colac Otway Shire over the period 2006 to 2016, revealing that manufacturing and health care and social assistance have become the largest employing local industries; passing agriculture during the period. Tourism characteristic industries experienced modest growth and tourism connected industries declined slightly during the decade covering three Census periods to 2016.

Tourism characteristic sectors contributed 13.6% of all jobs in Colac Otway Shire in 2016, and tourism characteristic and tourism connected sectors (combined) contributed almost 29% of all local jobs.

In Apollo Bay district (Otway SA2), Table 2.3 shows the tourism characteristic industry Accommodation and Food Services is by far the largest employer, with 20.6% of all jobs, and has been growing at 0.31% (over a period in which the overall number of jobs declined by 0.13% per annum), followed by Agriculture (10.9% of jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (104% of jobs) and Construction (9.3% of jobs).

Colac Otway Shire’s website indicates that “tourism employs 1,283 people (13.5% of employees) within the Colac Otway Shire and directly contributes $199 million towards the local economy every year. A further $281 million is generated through tourism industry employment (consumption effect)”. Estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Business Register for the Apollo Bay District (Otway SA2) suggest the direct turnover of tourism characteristic businesses, shown in Table 2.4, is in the order of $81.5 million. This represents 43% of expenditure on tourism trips by visitors to Colac Otway Shire.

In Apollo Bay district (Otway SA2), Table 2.3 shows the tourism characteristic industry “Accommodation and Food Services” is by far the largest employer, with 20.6% of all jobs, and has been growing at 0.31% (over a period in which the overall number of jobs declined by 0.13% per annum), followed by Agriculture (10.9% of jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (104% of jobs) and Construction (9.3% of jobs).

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2006 Census 2016 Census Change

Males Females Persons % Males Females Persons % p.a. 2006-16 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 891 429 1,324 14.14% 846 339 1,189 12.46% -1.07% Mining 23 0 20 0.21% 33 0 36 0.38% 6.05% Manufacturing 787 226 1,011 10.80% 946 347 1,292 13.54% 2.48% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 69 6 79 0.84% 71 10 88 0.92% 1.08% Construction 611 66 671 7.17% 620 70 691 7.24% 0.29% Wholesale Trade 284 114 395 4.22% 133 49 180 1.89% -7.56% Retail Trade ** 439 588 1,025 10.95% 335 535 871 9.13% -1.61% Accommodation and Food Services * 268 482 747 7.98% 343 492 836 8.76% 1.13% Transport, Postal and Warehousing * 335 76 405 4.33% 302 71 368 3.86% -0.95% Information Media and 58 48 109 1.16% 46 49 102 1.07% -0.66% Telecommunications Financial and Insurance Services 45 67 111 1.19% 47 63 114 1.19% 0.27% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 45 47 91 0.97% 27 60 89 0.93% -0.22% Professional, Scientific and Technical 114 108 224 2.39% 133 153 288 3.02% 2.54% Services Administrative and Support Services 246 168 413 4.41% 153 178 330 3.46% -2.22% Public Administration and Safety 246 286 525 5.61% 207 268 472 4.94% -1.06% Education and Training ** 170 388 559 5.97% 152 445 597 6.25% 0.66% Health Care and Social Assistance 198 810 1,010 10.79% 199 1,008 1,210 12.68% 1.82% Arts and Recreation Services * 50 49 100 1.07% 43 55 98 1.03% -0.20% Other Services 182 129 312 3.33% 163 124 285 2.99% -0.90% Inadequately described/Not stated 146 99 241 2.57% 273 154 423 4.43% 5.79% Total 5,184 4,180 9,364 100.00% 5,079 4,471 9,545 100.00% 0.19% * Tourism Characteristic 653 607 1,252 13.37% 688 618 1,302 13.64% 0.39% ** Tourism Connected 609 976 1,584 16.92% 487 980 1,468 15.38% -0.76%

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Apollo Bay District (Otway SA2) Apollo Bay State Suburb (SSC)

2006 % 2011 % 2016 % % per 2006 % 2016 % % per jobs jobs jobs annum jobs jobs annum change change Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 216 13.30% 176 11.73% 175 10.92% -2.08% 55 11.63% 21 5.45% -9.18% Mining 6 0.37% 11 0.73% 11 0.69% 6.25% 4 0.85% 5 1.30% 2.26% Manufacturing 85 5.23% 75 5.00% 79 4.93% -0.73% 19 4.02% 21 5.45% 1.01% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 12 0.74% 12 0.80% 10 0.62% -1.81% 3 0.63% 3 0.78% 0.00% Services Construction 185 11.39% 151 10.06% 149 9.30% -2.14% 98 20.72% 74 19.22% -2.77% Wholesale Trade 35 2.16% 20 1.33% 13 0.81% -9.43% 8 1.69% 3 0.78% -9.34% Retail Trade ** 152 9.36% 107 7.13% 121 7.55% -2.26% 47 9.94% 35 9.09% -2.90% Accommodation and Food Services * 320 19.70% 317 21.12% 330 20.59% 0.31% 80 16.91% 91 23.64% 1.30% Transport, Postal and Warehousing * 38 2.34% 51 3.40% 46 2.87% 1.93% 20 4.23% 15 3.90% -2.84% Information Media and 10 0.62% 6 0.40% 16 1.00% 4.81% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% Telecommunications Financial and Insurance Services 13 0.80% 16 1.07% 13 0.81% 0.00% 3 0.63% 3 0.78% 0.00% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 27 1.66% 27 1.80% 27 1.68% 0.00% 10 2.11% 6 1.56% -4.98% Professional, Scientific and Technical 38 2.34% 57 3.80% 49 3.06% 2.57% 15 3.17% 10 2.60% -3.97% Services Administrative and Support Services 61 3.76% 84 5.60% 99 6.18% 4.96% 20 4.23% 17 4.42% -1.61% Public Administration and Safety 71 4.37% 58 3.86% 74 4.62% 0.41% 20 4.23% 22 5.71% 0.96% Education and Training ** 95 5.85% 95 6.33% 107 6.67% 1.20% 15 3.17% 15 3.90% 0.00% Health Care and Social Assistance 156 9.61% 160 10.66% 166 10.36% 0.62% 16 3.38% 11 2.86% -3.68% Arts and Recreation Services * 35 2.16% 28 1.87% 25 1.56% -3.31% 12 2.54% 10 2.60% -1.81% Other Services 44 2.71% 36 2.40% 23 1.43% -6.28% 12 2.54% 8 2.08% -3.97% Inadequately described/Not stated 37 2.28% 29 1.93% 60 3.74% 4.95% 16 3.38% 11 2.86% -3.68% Total 1,624 100.00 1,501 100.00 1,603 100.00 -0.13% 473 100.00 385 100.00 -2.04% % % % % % * Tourism Characteristic 393 24.20% 396 26.38% 401 25.02% 0.20% 112 23.68% 116 30.13% 0.35% ** Tourism Connected 247 15.21% 202 13.46% 228 14.22% -0.80% 62 13.11% 50 12.99% -2.13%

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$0- $50,000- $100,000- $200,000- $500,000- $2,000,000+ Total Estimated % $50,000 $99,999 $199,999 $499,999 $1,999,999 Sales T/O Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 45 17 9 26 18 0 115 $35,350,000 16.28% Manufacturing 3 0 0 3 0 0 6 $1,125,000 0.52% Construction 13 13 27 18 12 0 83 $26,650,000 12.27% Wholesale Trade 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 $300,000 0.14% Retail Trade 9 3 3 9 5 6 35 $42,800,000 19.71% Accommodation and Food Services 9 13 19 20 29 8 98 $75,300,000 34.68% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 5 3 3 4 3 0 18 $5,950,000 2.74% Information Media and Telecommunications 0 3 0 3 0 0 6 $1,275,000 0.59% Financial and Insurance Services 6 3 3 0 3 0 15 $4,575,000 2.11% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 13 6 11 7 5 0 42 $11,125,000 5.12% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 11 4 4 3 0 0 22 $2,225,000 1.02% Administrative and Support Services 3 3 6 4 0 0 16 $2,600,000 1.20% Health Care and Social Assistance 0 3 3 3 0 0 9 $1,725,000 0.79% Arts and Recreation Services 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 $300,000 0.14% Other Services 0 3 3 4 3 0 13 $5,825,000 2.68% Total 123 80 91 104 78 14 490 $217,125,000 100.00% Tourism Characteristic 17 19 22 24 32 8 122 $81,550,000 37.56% Tourism Connected 9 3 3 9 5 6 35 $42,800,000 19.71%

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The 2016 profile of tourism visitations to Colac-Otway Shire is summarised in Table 2.5 and indicates the annual level of visitation to the Shire is around: ‐ 802,200 visitors of which 47.1% are daytrip visitors, 45.3% are overnight domestic visitors, and 7.6% are international visitors. ‐ 1,099,000 visit nights; 87.6% by domestic visitors and 12.4% by international visitors.

Among the overnight visitations, the durations of visits are 2.65 nights for domestic and 2.24 nights for international.

Average tourism expenditure per day in Colac Otway for all categories is: ‐ $120 per night for international visitors (and $136 for those staying in commercial accommodation) ‐ $145 per night for domestic overnight visitors (and $179 for those staying in commercial accommodation) ‐ $91 for day visitors.

Tourism Research Australia reports that about 30% of visitors to the broader “Western Victorian” region engaged in nature based tourism experiences, compared with 17% in cultural and heritage experiences and 55% in food and wine experiences. Of course, participating in these experiences is not mutually exclusive, with visitors increasingly likely to seek multiple opportunities for their preferred tourism experiences, within and across categories.

Table 2.5 Tourism Characteristics for Colac Otway Shire, 2016

International Domestic Domestic Day Total Visitors Overnight Visitors ('000) 60.960 363.750 377.500 802.210

Nights ('000) 136.295 962.750 - 1,099.045

Average stay (nights) 2.236 2.647 - 2.588 Spend ($m) 16.292 139.723 34.292 190.307

Average spend per trip ($) $267.26 $384.12 $90.84 $237.23 Average spend per night ($) $119.53 $145.13 $141.95 Average spend (commercial $135.08 $178.96 $171.80 accommodation) per night ($)

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80% 71% 70% 69% 66% 60% 61% 58% 60% 57%

50% 48%

40% 37% 39% 37% 34% 30%

20%

10%

0%

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3. DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PROFILE

85+ years 80-84 years 75-79 years 70-74 years 65-69 years 60-64 years 55-59 years 50-54 years 45-49 years 40-44 years 35-39 years 30-34 years 25-29 years 20-24 years 15-19 years 10-14 years 5-9 years 0-4 years -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

15 Apollo Bay ‘State Suburb’ 16 Apollo Bay District or Colac SA2 17 2006 to 2016 18 Victoria in Future, 2016 for VIFSA Apollo Bay-Gellibrand

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75+ yrs 2016 75+ yrs 2006 8% 0-24 yrs 55-74 7% 0-24 18% yrs yrs 25% 24% 55-74 yrs 25-54 yrs 39% 44% 25-54 yrs 35%

2031 75+ yrs 0-24 yrs 21% 14%

55-74 25-54 yrs yrs 39% 26%

19 Scores less than 1,000 tend to indicate that the factors of disadvantage exceed those of advantage 20 Victoria in Future 2016

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