iCET, Aug 2015 Calculating Urban Transportation Emissions: Private Vehicles Lessons from existing tools’ development, design and implementation This report is part of a project designed to equip Chinese urban policy-makers with a City Transport Emission Calculator that will assess vehicle emissions levels in the city, given varying policy measurements’ impacts on fleet composition and efficiency. For more details: [email protected] Acknowledgements The project is jointly executed by the Innovation Center for Energy and transportation (iCET), Tsinghua University Shenzhen Graduate School, China Urban Sustainable Transportation Research Centre (CUSTReC) of China Academy of Transportation Sciences (CATS) and E4Tech. The authors of this report extend their appreciation to the following organizations for their valuable advice and inputs: World Research Institute (WRI), German Developmental Institute (GIZ), Vehicle Emission Control Center (VECC) of MEP, and China Automotive Technology and Research Centre (CATARC). Disclaimer We are gracious for the generous support of the Rockefeller Brothers’ fund, Blue Moon Fund, and the UK-Strategic Prosperity fund (SPF); Views expressed throughout this work are the authors’ alone and do not represent the supporter’s views. 1 Content 1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................................5 2. Review of transport emissions policy motivations and tools employed ....................................................7 2.1 The EU .........................................................................................................................................................................................9 2.1.1 COPERT Computer Programme ...........................................................................................................................9 2.1.2 Assessment and Reliability of Transport Emissions Models and Inventory Systems (ARTEMIS)................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3 The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA) ................................................. 17 2.1.4 VERSIT+ ......................................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.5 Network Emission Model (NEMO) ................................................................................................................... 21 2.1.6 TRaffic Emission Factor Improved Calculator (TREFIC)...................................................................... 22 2.1.7 Transport Emission Model (TREMOD) .......................................................................................................... 23 2.1.8 Passenger Car and Heavy Duty Emission Model (PHEM) .................................................................... 24 2.1.9 UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) ....................................................................... 24 2.2 The U.S. .................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.1 GREET ............................................................................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.2 MOBILE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.3 MOVES ............................................................................................................................................................................ 32 2.2.4 CMEM .............................................................................................................................................................................. 34 2.2.5 IVE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.2.6 EMFAC ............................................................................................................................................................................ 36 2.2.7 ACEEE Green Book ................................................................................................................................................... 37 2.3 China ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 2.3.1 General overview of transportation calculator's development in China ..................................... 39 2.3.2 China Road Transport Emission Model (CRTEM), GIZ HBEFA-based design for China....... 41 2.3.3 China Vehicle Emissions Model (CVEM), VECC-MEP ............................................................................. 43 2.3.4 WRI China, version 1.0 (new tool, under development) ...................................................................... 44 2.3.5 IVE-China....................................................................................................................................................................... 46 3. China Passenger Vehicle Emissions Model Suggestions .................................................................................. 48 3.1 Mainstreaming vehicle use-phase emissions modeling approaches ...................................................... 50 2 3.2 Data and Figures for the Case of Transport Emissions in China ............................................................... 52 3.2.1 Data for CRTEM/HBEFA-China.......................................................................................................................... 53 3.2.2 Data for WRI-Chengdu ........................................................................................................................................... 54 3.2.3 Data for CVEM ............................................................................................................................................................. 56 3.2.4 Data for IVE in Beijing & Shanghai ................................................................................................................... 57 3.2.5 Transport Emissions data from other research ........................................................................................ 58 3.3 Limitations of studies to date, and lessons learnt............................................................................................. 60 3.3.1 Limitations of transport modeling .................................................................................................................. 60 3.3.2 Lessons learnt from existing transport modeling................................................................................... 61 4. Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 62 References .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Figures Figure 1: Transport Policy Objectives and Major Strategies ................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Global transport models divided according to their major function ......... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 3: Major vehicle emissions simulation and emissions factor models developed in Europe ........... 9 Figure 4: Snapshots of the COPERT model ............................................................................................ 10 Figure 5: Snapshots of the COPERT Street Level model ........................................................................ 12 Figure 6: The ARTEMIS urban driving cycle for passenger cars ........................................................... 14 Figure 7: ARTEMIS schematic modeling of the passenger car emissions and fuel consumption ........... 15 Figure 8: ARTEMIS schematic illustration of the traffic approach ........................................................ 15 Figure 9: Schematic structure of the ARTEMIS tools ............................................................................ 16 Figure 10: Scheme of HBFRA model ...................................................................................................... 19 Figure 11: Example of HBFRA3.2 PM emission factors ......................................................................... 19 Figure 12: Snapshots of HBFRA online version ..................................................................................... 20 Figure 13: Snapshot of VERSIT+ micro ................................................................................................. 21 Figure 14: Snapshot of NEMO modeling scheme ................................................................................... 22 Figure 15: Snapshot of TREFIC modeling scheme ................................................................................. 23 Figure 16: Snapshots of the NAEI