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Reinventing Fire: China a Roadmap for China’S Revolution in Energy Consumption and Production to 2050 重塑能源：中国 ꬗ぢ䎃腊彂嶊餩ㄤ欰❡ꬠㄐ騟絁㕃灇瑕

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Reinventing Fire: China a Roadmap for China’S Revolution in Energy Consumption and Production to 2050 重塑能源：中国 ꬗ぢ䎃腊彂嶊餩ㄤ欰❡ꬠㄐ騟絁㕃灇瑕 REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA A ROADMAP FOR CHINA’S REVOLUTION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION TO 2050 重塑能源：中国 ꬗ぢ䎃腊彂嶊餩ㄤ欰❡ꬠㄐ騟絁㕃灇瑕 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SEPTEMBER 2016 ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE ENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA A ROADMAP FOR CHINA’S REVOLUTION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION TO 2050 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SEPTEMBER 2016 The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the institutions or governments. While every efort has been made to verify the data and information contained in this report, any mistakes or omissions are attributed solely to the authors and not to the organizations they represent. 重塑能源：中国 Copyright 2016 © Energy Research Institute (ERI), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and ꬗ぢ䎃腊彂嶊餩ㄤ欰❡ꬠㄐ騟絁㕃灇瑕 Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). AUTHORS SUPPORTING PARTNER M OUN KY T C A I O N R I N E STIT U T AUTHORS RESEARCH TEAM: ABOUT THIS REPORT ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Bold indicates research team leader. In 2011 Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) published Energy Research Institute (ERI) of the National Development and Reform ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions For the Commission (NDRC) was established in 1980. The main obligation of ERI is Dai Yande, Bai Quan, Fu Guanyun, Gu Lijing, New Energy Era, a synthesis of 34 years of RMI’s to provide scientific and technological advice to the Chinese government, Kang Xiaowen, Tao Ye, Tian Zhiyu, Xiong Huawen, experience on how the U.S. could profitably transition as well as private sector clients, on issues related to strategy, planning, Yang Hongwei, Yi Wenjing, Zhang Jianguo, and of of coal and oil by 2050. At that time, decades of policy, law and standards for energy development. The scope of research Zhu Yuezhong with additional support from Yu Wangxia. work was underway by Energy Research Institute (ERI) conducted by ERI covers all fields of energy production, distribution and and the China Energy Group of Lawrence Berkeley consumption. The main focus is on policy research in the fields of energy LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY National Laboratory (LBNL) to model and understand economy and strategy, energy efciency, energy environment and climate Lynn Price, David Fridley, Ali Hasanbeigi, Nina Khanna, China’s potential for aggressive energy efciency and change, and renewable energy. Hongyou Lu, Feng Wei, and Nan Zhou with additional renewable energy deployment. support from Gang He, Lixuan Hong, Jing Ke, Xu (Angela) Liu, and Bo Shen. In 2013 these three organizations joined forces. LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY Together they created a common fact base for how ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE China could use energy efciency and renewable Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory addresses the world’s most urgent Jon Creyts, Josh Agenbroad, Michael Bendewald, Brett energy to meet the growing demand of its population scientific challenges by advancing sustainable energy, protecting human Bridgeland, Kate Chrisman, Kendall Ernst, Ellen Franconi, for a clean, low-carbon, efcient, safe, reliable, and health, creating new materials, and revealing the origin and fate of the Claire Henly, Yi Ke, Ruosida Lin, Robert McIntosh, cost-efective modern energy system. This Summary universe. Founded in 1931, Berkeley Lab’s scientific expertise has been David Mullaney, Clay Stranger, Eric Wanless, report contains the most important insights from recognized with 13 Nobel prizes. The University of California manages Daniel Wetzel, and Cyril Yee with additional support three years of research jointly conducted by these Berkeley Lab for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Ofce of Science. For more, from Evan Bouchier, Kitty Bu, Maiyue Cheng, Yifan Jia, institutions. visit www.lbl.gov. Becky Li, Ting Li, Sha Liu, Amory Lovins, Darrin Magee, Zihe Meng, Meiling Shi, Jiayin Song, Kerui Zhou, Energy Foundation China supported the work by M OUN KY T C A I O N and Zeqi (Zach) Zhu. contributing both guidance and funding to the initiative. R ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE Support also came from an additional 36 foundations IN S T E TIT U The authors would also like to acknowledge the and individuals who gave directed funds for the Since 1982, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has advanced market-based contributions of Max Dupuy and Frederick Weston from research freely and without condition, in addition to solutions that transform global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, The Regulatory Assistance Project. general supporting funds from RMI’s contributors. and secure future. An independent, nonprofit think-and-do tank, RMI The Chinese government gave in kind to the research engages with governments, businesses, communities, and other institutions through the direct contribution of resources, analysis, to accelerate and scale replicable solutions that drive the cost-efective shift Recommended Citation: Energy Research Institute, and support. from fossil fuels to efciency and renewables. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Rocky Mountain Institute, 2016, Reinventing Fire: China – A It was the intent of the authors to ensure that the fact Roadmap for China’s Revolution in Energy Consumption base was legitimately constructed using the best and Production to 2050, Executive Summary. available public knowledge and data. The team went to great lengths to ensure all data were verified and that SUPPORTING PARTNER analytical methods were sound. Any errors or omissions contained herein are the sole responsibility of the ENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA authors and not the organizations to which they belong. Energy Foundation China, established in 1999, is a grantmaking The authors wish to thank the many experts, donors, philanthropic organization dedicated to China’s sustainable energy and contributors who have generously supported the development. It is registered under the Ministry of Civil Afairs as Energy success of this initiative. A special thanks goes to Foundation Beijing Representation ofce and supervised by the National the Advisory Panel members and international expert Development and Reform Commission of China. It is part of the Energy reviewers who guided and substantially improved Foundation, which is based in San Francisco, California, U.S. this research. TABLE OF CONTENTS 01: Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 09 02: Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 13 Primary Energy and Non-Fossil Share Trends .............................................................................. 14 Primary Energy Demand Reduction .................................................................................................... 15 Sector Primary Energy Peaking Trends ............................................................................................. 16 Sector Energy Savings Contributions .................................................................................................. 17 Primary Energy Fuel Mix Trends ................................................................................................................ 18 Electricity Generation Trends ....................................................................................................................... 19 China’s Three Major Energy-Related Trends .............................................................................. 20 Energy Intensity and Carbon Intensity Reductions ................................................................. 21 Energy-Related Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxides Air Emissions ...................... 22 Net Present Value Of The Reinventing Fire Scenario ........................................................ 23 03: Sector Snapshots ...................................................................................................................... 25 Industry ........................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Buildings......................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Transportation .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 Transformation (Electricity Focus) ......................................................................................................... 30 04: Phases of China's Energy Revolution ...................................................... 33 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................................................................ 38 Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................................................... 39 6 | REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA | 7 INTRODUCTION 01 8 | REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA INTRODUCTION AFTER DECADES of rapid economic growth fueled THE CHALLENGE rain is serious in many cities as well. In some areas, China’s path forward—one that aims to urbanize
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