Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
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An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia Phase 1: Pre-feasibility Study and Project Identification
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Carried out by:
Darup Associates Ltd. Tallinn Technical University PA Energy Ltd. Thermal Engineering Department SI Credit Ltd. for: .... @ The Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 December 1997 DISCLAIMER
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Preface
This report presents the results of a pre-feasibility and project identification study with the purpose of investigating the possibilities for wind energy in Estonia and to recommend on possible actions.
The study was carried out during a number of visits in Estonia by Dr. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates, Mr. Peter Ahm, PA Energy, and Dr. Seppo Islander, SI Credit. In Estonia the consultants collaborated with Mr. Velio Selg and Dr. Amo Valma, senior scientists in Thermal Engineering Departmant at Tallinn Technical University, and their participation in the project is greatly appreciated. In addition to facilitating contacts and providing data their insight in the Estonian wind energy scenario has been of great value to the study.
Meetings were held with the stakeholders in Estonian wind energy, in particular the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Environment, the Electricity Price Committee, Eesti Energia, the Estonian Energy Research Institute and Tallinn Technical University. Also meetings were held with Viimsi Vald, the Hiiumaa Center for the Biosphere Reserve and the Estonian Power and Heat Association.
Professor Umar Opik, Academician, Chairman of the Electricity Price Committee, kindly made himself available for a most interesting and valuable discussion of some principal issues relating to the implementation of wind energy in Estonia including possible future developments in capacity needs, costs of energy and rates & tariffs.
The assistance in reviewing the fact sheets and other comments and information from the following persons and organisations is gratefully acknowledged: Mr. Mart Mallo (Ministry of Economy), Mr. Tonu Suurkuusk (Eesti Energia), Prof. Arvo Ots (Tallinn Technical University, Department of Thermal Engineering), Ms Inge Roos (Academy of Sciences, Estonian Energy Research Institute), Mr. Lembit Tammsaar (Viimsi Vald), Mr. Ruuben Post (Hiiumaa Center for the Biosphere Preserve), Mr. Rein Hanni (Director of Estonian Power and Heat Association) and Dr. Tonu Lausmaa (Re-En Center Taasen).
The study was financed by contract j.nr. 2136/053-960400 with the Danish Energy Agency
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An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia Phase 1: Pre-feasibility Study and Project Identification
Contents
Preface ...... 2
1. Summary ...... 5
2. Introduction ...... 6
3. Present situation regarding wind energy in Estonia ...... 8 3.1 Energy options and Technical Feasibility 8 3.2 Justification for wind energy 9 3.3 Institutional issues and legislation 10 3.4 Technical and Economical Issues 11 3.5 Existing data & previous proj ects 11 3.6 Possible project opportunities 12
4. Proposed Wind Energy Related Activities...... 14 4.1 Institutional Issues 14 4.2 Follow-up on Previous Projects 15 4.3 Demonstration of Wind Energy 15 4.4 Capacity Building 16 4.5 Summary of Estimated Costs and Durations 17
5. Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 18
References...... 19
APPENDICES...... 20
A Project Proposal, TOR...... 21
B Schedule of visits in Estonia ...... 35 B. 1 Visit in Estonia 3-6 June, 1997 35 B.2 Visit in Estonia 2-5 August, 1997 36 B.3 Visit in Estonia 15 August, 1997 36 B. 4 Visit in Estonia 15-17 December, 1997 37
C Persons & Organizations ...... 38 C. l Persons met/contacted by telephone: 38 C.2 Others 38 C.3 Organisations 39
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D Overall and Institutional Issues...... 42 D.l Energy Act Concepts 42 D.2 Wind Resources 43 D.3 Electricity supply systems 46 D.4 Rates & tariffs 48 D. 5 Stakeholders 52
E Previous Project Experience ...... 54 E. l Genvind 150 kW at Tahkuna 56 E.2 Wind diesel system in Prangli 61
F Wind Energy Demonstration ...... 65 F. 1 Background 65 F.2 Justification 66 F.3 Outline Proposal 66 F.4 Grid connected wind farm near Tallinn 68 F. 5 Autonomous wind diesel system in an island 83
G Capacity Building ...... 97 G. 1 R&D wind turbine at TTU 99 G.2 Wind Energy knowledge center at TTU 103
H Letters of Intent...... 108
I Papers...... 115
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1. Summary
This report presents the results of a pre-feasibility and project identification study with the purpose of investigating the possibilities for wind energy in Estonia and to recommend on possible actions, as outlined in Letters of Interest from the Estonian Ministries of Economy and Environment in 1995.
Wind as source of energy in Estonia appears not yet to have been analyzed in detail. Available data indicates that wind can constitute a viable domestic source of energy, as average wind speeds of about 6 m/s (at 10 m) are reported at many coastal regions of Estonia. With state-of-the-art wind energy technology this means cost of wind produced electricity about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh - comparable to the cost of electricity from a modern coal- fired power plant. Two types of grids exist in these regions: On the mainland and on islands with sea cable grid connected wind turbines can be implemented. On islands without sea cable wind turbines can be connected to the diesel powered local grids.
At present Eesti Energia has a surplus of generating capacity, but out phasing ofgenerating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to meet no later than year 2010. With present rates & tariffs wind energy cannot be introduced on a commercial economic basis, but the ongoing liberalization of the energy sector in Estonia will lead to world market level cost of energy, making wind energy generally competitive with new fossil fueled power plants.
Wind energy technology has a certain lead time as any new energy technology, and a lead time of 10-15 years is estimated in the case of Estonia, depending on the level of ambition of the main stakeholders and the development of the cost of electricity. Thus the timing is considered right to initiate wind energy technology and knowledge transfer type activities that include demonstrations. It has been found in the study that a technical and organizational infrastructure exists in Estonia that can accommodate and utilize the Danish experience with deployment of wind energy on a national basis.
A number ofpossible wind energy related activities have been discussed and their feasibility was assessed in a preliminary way. The conclusion is that it is relevant to perform detailed assessments of the feasibility of demonstrating both grid connected and autonomous wind energy systems, in collaboration with Eesti Energia and with Eesti Energia as technology carrier. A Letter of Interest to this effect has been signed by Mr. Jaak Maarend, technical director of Eesti Energia.
It has furthermore been concluded that if wind energy demonstration is decided upon, it will be relevant to assess the feasibility of specific actions to support capacity building primarily at Tallinn Technical University, including the possibility of installing an R&D wind turbine.
As a first step it is proposed to undertake the detailed planning and feasibility study of grid connected wind energy demonstrations in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. If the decision is made to implement this wind energy demonstration project, a certain proportion ofgrant money should be allocated for the demonstration. Subsequent steps in the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement should include the detailed planning andfeasibility studies of autonomous wind energy demonstration and the associated capacity building.
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2. Introduction
In 1995 a brief study, funded as part of a THERMIE action, was undertaken with the aim of assessing the possibilities for implementing wind energy in selected countries in the Baltic Sea region, and identifying the barriers to such implementation. During a visit in September 1995 the situation in Estonia regarding wind energy was briefly reviewed and a number of possible wind energy related project opportunities were identified (ref 1). Letters of Interest were signed by the Estonian Ministries of Economy and Environment, and on this basis it was recommended to proceed with an investigation of possible projects supported by Danish funding a first step towards large scale deployment of wind energy. The study was reported in ref 1.
Subsequently (February 1996) a set of draft terms of reference were outlined for the feasibility study and project identification activity proposed in the report of the 1995 study. The draft TOR outlined a four step approach towards large scale deployment of wind energy:
1. Pre-feasibility study: General assessment of problems and possibilities 2. Feasibility study: Detailed assessment of specific projects and associated activities 3. Demonstration projects: Limited scale application with Danish wind turbine technology 4. Implementation projects: Large scale application, joint venture local production.
Based on this the Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Republic of Estonia forwarded on October 1996 a proposal to include phase 1 of the feasibility study and project identification under the Danish - Estonian country agreement. Phase 1 was initiated in May 1997 under contract j.nr. 2136/053-960400 with the Danish Energy Agency.
The main purpose of phase 1 is to clarify the situation to the extent necessary for the Danish and Estonian authorities to decide on the content, extent and duration of phase 2. Actions in phase 1 include:
• Collection and analysis of existing data, including previous project experiences • Review of institutional issues, including policy & legislation issues • Review of technical issues, including technology transfer and production capabilities • Review of economical issues, including rates, subsidies and financing • Review of possible project opportunities and identification of relevant projects for phase 2 and subsequent phases
The pre-feasibility study and project identification has been carried out by the consulting companies
• Damp Associates Ltd., Denmark, project manager • PA Energy Ltd., Denmark, • SI Credit Ltd., Finland,
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Estonian counterpart in the study was
• Tallinn Technical University, Thermal Engineering Department
The study was carried out during a number of visits in Estonia by Dr. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates, Mr. Peter Ahm, PA Energy and Dr. Seppo Islander, SI Credit. In Estonia the consultants collaborated with Mr. Velio Selg and Dr. Amo Valma, senior scientists at Tallinn Technical University.
Meetings were held with the stakeholders in Estonian wind energy, in particular the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Environment, the Electricity Price Committee, Eesti Energia State Enterprise, the Estonian Energy Research Institute and Tallinn Technical University. Also meetings were held with Viimsi Vald, the Hiiumaa Center for the Biosphere Reserve and the Estonian Power and Heat Association.
Review of the fact sheets and other comments and information were given by the following persons and organisations: Academician Umar Opik (Chairman of the Electricity Price Committee), Mr. Mart Mallo (Ministry of Economy), Mr. Tonu Suurkuusk (Eesti Energia), Prof. Arvo Ots (Tallinn Technical University, Department of Thermal Engineering), Ms Inge Roos (Academy of Sciences, Estonian Energy Research Institute), Mr. Lembit Tammsaar (Viimsi Vald), Mr. Ruuben Post (Hiiumaa Center for the Biosphere Preserve), Mr. Rein Hanni (Director of Estonian Power and Heat Association) and Dr. Tonu Lausmaa (Re-En Center Taasen).
Terms of Reference for the project are included in Appendix A in the form of the Estonian project outline and a project proposal from Damp Associates.
Schedule of visits is included in Appendix B, and lists of persons met in Estonia are included in Appendix C, which also contains a list of organizations active in the field of wind energy.
The study is centered around a number of fact sheets dealing with overall and institutional issues, previous project experiences, wind energy demonstration and capacity building. The fact sheets have been reviewed by the relevant Estonian parties, and the fact sheets as well as other basic information are included in Appendices D - G.
Letters of Intent are included in Appendix H.
Additional material is included in Appendix I.
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3. Present situation regarding wind energy in Estonia
3.1 Energy optionsand Technical Feasibility It is part of the Estonian energy policy to diversify energy supplies by improving utilization of indigenous sources of energy and to comply with the goals as to market liberalization, price/cost transparency and sustainability set up by the European Union.
The oil, petroleum and coal market has been liberalized starting in 1992. Natural gas imported from Russia is operated by Eesti Gaas, a joint stock company with 39 % state holdings, and the electricity market (Eesti Energia) is under liberalization as well as the oil- shale mining sector (Eesti Polevkivi).
Oil-shale constitutes the predominant domestic source of energy and at present oil-shale provides almost 90 % of Estonia ’s primary energy and almost all electricity is produced in oil-shale fired power plants.
Oil-shale is mined in open casts and mines at about. 10 mill, tons annually. Known commercial reserves are estimated at 1.700 mill tons. The mining process constitutes a constant environmental risk to the local flora/fauna and to the water table. Landscape restoration is carried out in mined out areas and of the mined out area about 90 % is recultivated. Long term environmental impact is however not clear.
Burning of the oil-shale loads the environment with atmospheric emissions (gases & particles) and ash. Up til now 200 mill, tons of ash has been disposed of, claiming an area of 2000 hectares. Leaks of alkaline water and heavy metals from this ash deposit constitutes a serious environmental risk.
Renewable energy applications in the form of peat, firewood and wood waste contribute with about 10 % of the Estonian primary energy. The potential for utilization of biomass is not known, but it can probably play a much larger role than today in both heating and co generation.
There is technical potential for hydro power of about 80 MW and this potential is under development, primarily as small-scale hydro power plants.
Solar energy applications have so far received very little attention in Estonia. With increasing energy costs solar hot water systems may constitute a viable niche as found in the Scandinavian countries with comparable climatic conditions.
Wind as source of energy in Estonia appears not yet to have been analyzed in detail, even though references to an elusive Estonian Wind Atlas can be found. Available data indicates that wind can constitute a viable domestic source of energy, as average wind speeds of about 6 m/s (at 10 m) are reported at many coastal regions of Estonia, where two types of grids exist.
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On the mainland and on islands with sea cable there is good coverage by the grids of the regional parts of Eesti Energia, including the Island Energy Supply grid, where modem utility grade wind turbines without any technical problems can be implemented. With state-of-art wind energy technology this means cost of wind produced electricity at about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh - comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal-fired power plant.
On islands without sea cable power supply is by diesel powered local grids. Technology exists for connection of modem wind turbines to these local grids, although some additional equipment is needed to make cogeneration possible. With state-of-art wind energy technology this means cost of primary wind produced electricity at about 1.0 EEK/kWh - competitive with the cost of electricity from a local diesel power plant. However, determination of the value of wind generated electricity in terms of replaced fuel etc. requires detailed analysis.
At present there is little if any practical experience in Estonian wind energy, however the Tallinn Technical University has demonstrated strong committment and has been active in resource assessments and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia.
3.2 Justification for wind energy The ongoing liberalization of the energy sector in Estonia will lead to world market level cost of energy, e.g. about 0.9 EEK/kWh making wind energy generally competitive with new fossil fueled power plants.
At present Eesti Energia has surplus of generating capacity. However out phasing of generating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to meet no later than year 2010.
Growing environmental concern, partly coming from domestic politics and partly coming from international politics (as a consequence of Estonia ’s wish to conform to European standards), will without any doubt lead to an increasing interest in renewable energy applications in Estonia.
Wind energy technology is internationally mature and competitive, there is a viable wind energy resource in Estonia and the topography and existing grid extension appear to favour large scale deployment of wind energy applications.
In large scale deployment of wind energy applications electric utilities have by experience crucial roles to play as promoter, technical guarantee, financier, owner, operator, maintainer and as purchaser and distributor of wind electricity.
Same experience has demonstrated, that the utilities involved will benefit from a greener image and the consequent increase in public acceptance and from the new business opportunities involved.
Wind energy technology has a certain lead time as any new energy technology, and a lead time of 10-15 years is estimated in the case of Estonia, depending on the level of ambition of the main stakeholders and the development of cost of electricity.
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3.3 Institutional issues and legislation Several legislative actions and strategies, that will support or be part of the framework for the implementation of wind energy in Estonia, are underway. The Estonian Energy Act and an Environmental Strategy for Estonia have passed Parliament, and specific action plans are under preparation. It is expected that the Government of Estonia will support a strategy for fuel and energy in which renewable energy will cover a significant part of the anticipated increase in primary energy consumption.
The purpose of new Estonian Energy Act is to regulate the Estonian fuel and energy markets in a privatized structure. Fuel and energy enterprises and entrepreneurs will operate the production, transmission, distribution and handling of fuel and energy under a system of technical and market licenses issued by national bodies.
The Energy Act operates with Governmental bodies such as the National Board of Technical Inspection and the Energy Market Agency. Presently tariffs and rates are determined and supervised by the Electricity Price Committee. Dedicated governmental bodies to deal with wind energy and other renewables are presently not established.
The Energy Act operates with the concept of network entrepreneurs, that must allow the connection of all users and power producers in the territory covered by the network entrepreneur to connect to the network, under terms & conditions and prices & tariffs to be approved by the relevant national bodies.
This constitutes a legal basis for the operation of e.g. grid connected wind turbines and wind farms as independent power producers (IPP’s), in the Energy Act termed Energy Enterprises, connected to the grid.
In this privatized scenario one would expect Eesti Energia to act as a Dominant Network Entrepreneur, operating the 110 kV main trunk network as a “power highway ”. Wind energy IPP’s (Energy Enterprises) could be connected to the “power highway ” directly or through the regional 35 kV distribution networks connected to the trunk grid and presumably operated by the former regional parts of Eesti Energia, including the Island Power Supply, acting as Network Entrepreneurs.
Although the legal framework for (Wind) Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) is established through the Energy Act all the details that make the concept work (agreements, terms, conditions, prices & tariffs including buy back rates etc) are not established at present. The Danish experiences in this area may prove to be invaluable in this context.
Under the present system of rates and tariffs, independent Wind Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) cannot operate profitably indicating that presently Eesti Energia itself would probably be the most suitable host for both grid connected and autonomous wind energy demonstration plants.
Such demonstrations will be useful vehicles for development of the necessaiy implementation models including best practices, thus ensuring the viability of Wind Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) in the long run.
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3.4 Technical and Economical Issues The basis for a technical infrastructure to deal with wind energy exists in Estonia, from local contractors with the potential to install and service wind energy systems to production companies with the potential to participate in wind turbine production. Technical universities have the potential to offer the necessary educational and development capabilities, and the national electricity supply company and its regional branches have the capabilities to carry the technology to large scale deployment.
Thus a technical and organizational infrastructure exists that can accommodate and utilize the Danish experience with deployment of wind energy on a national basis, by acting as counterparts in technology and knowledge transfer type activities that include demonstrations.
The present system of rates and tariffs for electricity does not seem to reflect adequately the long term marginal costs of producing electric energy, but a development towards international levels of energy costs is clearly taking place. Islands with autonomous power supply are recognized to have very high energy production costs, and here wind energy is already today considered a viable supplement or alternative to the existing power supply.
At present there is no direct economic incentive for the deployment of wind energy and other renewables, but the issue may arise as part of the upcoming liberalization and privatization of the fuel and energy sector, and the associated legislative efforts.
Estonian financing of wind energy systems with the high initial investments is presently not the top priority in view of the needs of the entire Estonian technical infrastructure. Therefore initial demonstration and capacity building requires a significant proportion of international financing with the aim of initiating a sustainable deployment of wiund energy in Estonia.
3.5 Existing data & previous projects The most important data for assessing the potential for wind energy are wind speed data. Long term data records are available from meteorology stations (cf. Appendix D.2), and recently wind speed measurements on specific potential wind turbine sites have been initiated by RE-EN Center Taasen. In addition to this an international exercise is taking place (ref 17) where existing wind data for the coastal regions of the Baltic Sea are being calibrated and put into the standard wind atlas format (ref 18).
The existing data clearly indicate a wind regime in the coastal areas and island that is good enough to provide the potential for large scale deployment of wind energy at prices that are competitive to world market costs of energy.
Previous wind energy projects are few. Only two have been dealt with in the present study, both of them with technical and financial participation from Denmark:
• 150 kW Genvind wind turbine at Tahkuna, Hiiumaa island • 150 kW wind diesel system on Prangli island
These two projects are described in the fact sheets included in Appendix E. The wind turbine at Tahkuna is now in operation because the present project intervened and participated in the
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The lessons learnt from the two projects are essentially the same:
• A strong technology carrier is necessary to support the end user in technical, organizational and project related matters. • Sufficient revenues from sales of electricity must be ensured in order to provide successful, sustainable operation of a wind energy plant. • Risks should be minimized, in particular for demonstration projects where failures may have a strong impact on the subsequent course of events. • A proven track record is essential for both the technology, the system solution and the manufacturer / the consortium, and this is again especially important for demonstrations.
These features are incorporated in the proposed activities of this study and their priorities.
3.6 Possible project opportunities The following possible project opportunities were outlined in the project proposal included in Appendix A:
• An Estonian (knowledge) center for wind energy. • A wind turbine of proven technology to be installed (at an Estonian Center) with the purposes of testing, R&D and demonstration. • Installation of a simple, robust and reliable wind diesel system in the island Ruhnu for power production and demonstration purposes (feasibility and plans). • Standard grid connected wind turbine(s) of proven technology in the island Saaremaa for power production and demonstration purposes. • Extension of existing wind energy application into integrated application of renewable energy technologies in the island Hiiumaa (already a “Biosphere Preservation Area”). • Wind diesel R&D (at an Estonian center) with the aim to participate in the development of future, advanced wind diesel concepts. • Monitoring and follow up ( for Estonian authorities) of existing energy projects in Estonia, such as: • Wind resource assessment. • Wind energy in Hiiumaa island. • Wind Diesel in Prangli island. • Wind energy technology transfer.
These project opportunities have been examined, discussed and prioritized in collaboration with the relevant Estonian parties, and fact sheets have been made for the following selected project categories:
Within the framework of the present project the Tahkuna wind turbine was inspected and recommendations as to the completion of the installation were given. Subsequently the installation was completed with funding from the Danish Environment Protection Agency Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 12 of 116 C:\WORKDlR\Darup Proj\ESTONJA\Fase 1 ReportXReport outiine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
• General and Institutional issues • Follow-up on previous projects • 150 kW Genvind at Tahkuna, Hiiumaa • 150 kW wind diesel system in Prangli • Wind energy demonstrations • Grid connected demonstration near Tallinn • Autonomous wind energy system in an island • Capacity Building • R&D wind turbine at wind energy center • Specific activities at wind energy center
These project opportunities are described in the following chapter, and the fact sheets and other information are in Appendices D to G.
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4. Proposed Wind Energy Related Activities
Wind energy related activities are proposed as outlined below, based on the Letters of Interest signed by the Estonian Ministries of Economy and Environment in 1995 and by Eesti Energia in 1997. For each activity a feasibility study is envisaged, followed if found feasible by implementation of the activity.
For demonstration activities the feasibility study, demonstration and (later) deployment should be consecutive actions as outlined in chapter 2. Institutional issues and capacity building should be dealt with in parallel to the demonstration as a kind of associated activities.
Estonia Grid Denmark / Estonia Connected Demo
( Establish Estonian | Island Demo i Implement WE Center J demonstrations
WE Center Activities
Z Large scale X >j implementation
Feasibility ! (Demonstration ( Implementation ;
Sequence and interaction of proposed wind energy related activities
The figure indicates the sequence and interactions of the proposed wind energy related activities as they have been discussed with the Estonian stakeholders and agreed upon by the parties.
The text on the uppermost arrows indicates, that wind energy demonstration and implementation, including the necessary feasibility studies, may be carried out by joint Danish-Estonian initiative and financing. An Estonian wind energy center must be established entirely by Estonian initiative and financing, while specific activities at the center may be carried out by joint Danish-Estonian initiative and financing.
4.1 Institutional Issues Most probably the majority of the institutional issues related to the introduction and
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Most of the wind energy related institutional issues are expected to be dealt with in the context of the directly wind energy related activities. Issues such as technical standards, certifications and insurance will be part of wind energy demonstrations and subsequent deployment. Issues such as R&D, scenario analysis and resource base for manufacturers will be part of the capacity building, which should accompany demonstration and deployment of wind energy.
The Danish experiences in this field will be of great value to Estonia in connection with the introduction and deployment of wind energy, and it is envisaged that this experience can be transferred to the Estonian stakeholders in the course of the concrete wind energy related activities proposed by this project.
4.2 Follow-up on Previous Projects The 150 kW wind turbine at Tahkuna is now in operation as a result of intervention from the present project, see footnote on page 12. Due to the long stand still of the turbine before being commissioned and operational the wind turbine operates under extended surveillance, and a service contract has been signed between the Danish Environment Protection Agency and a Danish service company. Therefore no specific further action by the present project is deemed necessary, but of course any wind energy project in Estonia shouldestablish contact with the operator of the wind turbine.
The Prangli project is considered formally closed, and no further action on the previous project is deemed necessary. However, it is recommended to demonstrate wind energy in autonomous power supply on an island without sea cable, and Prangli is one possible location. Recommendations on that are in the following chapter.
The two previous projects are described in detail in Appendix E.
4.3 Demonstration of Wind Energy As a first step it is proposed to undertake the detailed planning and feasibility study of grid connected wind energy demonstrations in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. If the decision is made to implement this wind energy demonstration project, a certain proportion of grant money should be allocated for the demonstration. Subsequent steps in the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement should include the detailed planning and feasibility studies of autonomous wind energy demonstration and the associated capacity building.
Thus it is proposed to assess the feasibility of two wind energy demonstration projects in Estonia in cooperation with Eesti Energia within the Estonian-Danish country collaboration agreement. Eesti Energia should be involved both as a technology carrier, if not directly financially then technically/operationally, and as purchaser of the wind electricity produced. The two proposed wind energy demonstration projects are:
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• A grid-connected wind farm near Tallinn of about 600 KW. Several possible sites exist, Paljassaar peninsula has been looked into as a possibility. It is estimated that a feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of 0.5 mill DKK. If a grid connected demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of 0.5 mill DKK. It is estimated that a 600 kW wind turbine can be installed within a budget of 4-5 mill DKK
• A stand-alone wind/diesel system on an island. Several islands would be relevant, Possibilities include Prangli (some preparations have already been done), and Naissaar (Ministry of Environment has established a nature preservation area in need of clean energy). It is estimated that a feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of 0.5 mill DKK. If an autonomous island demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of 0.5 mill DKK. It is estimated that a 150 kW wind turbine, including all necessary modifications and additional equipment, can be installed in connection with an existing diesel power plant within a budget of 3-3.5 mill DKK,.
The main objectives of the two wind energy demonstration projects are to:
• demonstrate the technical viability of wind energy under Estonian conditions • make the wind energy technology familiar to major future stakeholders (politicians, administration, utilities, IPP’s, industry, NGO’s and the public) • prepare Eesti Energia for new future business opportunities in the field of wind energy
Eesti Energia has expressed its willingness to take part in the investigation of the possibilities of introducing wind energy in Estonia covering own manpower costs, without any financial commitment from the side of Eesti Energia as to implementation. (A letter of Intent is included in Appendix H).
4.4 Capacity Building If an Estonian commitment to the introduction of wind energy becomes apparent by engagement in wind energy demonstration by a credible technology carrier such as Eesti Energia, the necessary institutional framework to support the development should be established. An important part of this would be to support the capacity building, and main objectives would be
• to support and contribute to the creation and strengthening of the Estonian wind energy technology know-how, which is a necessary part of an institutional framework for large scale utilization of wind energy in Estonia. • specifically to support and contribute to research, development and adaptation of wind energy technology to for future Estonian markets and industry • specifically to support and advise Estonian planners, decision makers and energy enterprises on the development and application of wind energy technology in Estonia.
It is proposed to assess the feasibility of the following two actions:
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It is proposed to assess the feasibility of the following two actions:
• A standard wind turbine (150 - 200 kW) intended for measurements and familiarization with standard wind turbines. Energy production is considered a priority by TTU, therefore it must be placed on a good wind site off the premises of TTU. The subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 1 - 2 months with a budget of the order 100,000 DKK. It is estimated that the wind turbine itself can be installed at a cost of approx 1.5 mill DKK.
• Specific activities in an Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center at Tallinn Technical University. An Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center must be an Estonian commitment in the sense that Estonian fundings are secured for establishing office facilities and financing the day-to-day operation of the Center, including long term staff. If wind energy demonstrations in Estonia are decided upon, a first outline planning and feasibility assessment of the Center could be carried out in parallel within a budget of the order 100 - 200,000 DKK.
International funding should be applied for to support specific activities in relation to the Center. It is proposed to consider the possibilities and assess the feasibility of various options for the Wind Energy Knowledge Center in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. The Thermal Engineering Department at Tallinn Technical University has expressed its interest in this assessment being carried out.
4.5 Summary of Estimated Costs and Durations The table below shows the estimated costs, durations and (if found viable) investments.
Estimated costs, durations and investments for the proposed actions
Item Feasibility study Implementation
Duration Budget frame Construction Investment
Institutional To be included in demonstration / capacity building.
Previous projects No actions proDosed in this project.
Wind energy demonstration • Tender procedure n.a. n.a. 6-9 months*) 0.5 mill DKK • Grid connected demonstration 4-6 months 0.5 mill DKK 3-4 months 4.5 mill DKK
Wind energy demonstration • Tender procedure n.a. n.a. 6-9 months*) 0.5 mill DKK • Autonomous wind energy system 4-6 months 0.5 mill DKK 4-6 months 3.5 mill DKK
Capacity building • R&D wind turbine @ TTU 1- 2 months 0.1 mill DKK 1-2 months 1.5 mill DKK • Activities at WE Center @ TTU 2- 4 months 0.2 mill DKK **) *) Depends on the chosen procedure; **) Depends on the outcome of the planning exercise
These costs and durations are estimates only, and they should not be used as a basis for concrete decisions regarding purchase of hardware.
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5. Conclusions and Recommendations
It is part of the Estonian energy policy to diversify energy supplies by improving utilization of indigenous sources of energy and to comply with the goals as to market liberalization, price/cost transparency and sustainability set up by the European Union.
The fuel and energy market is being liberalized, starting in 1992, including the electricity market (Eesti Energia). The Estonian Energy Act recently passed parliament with the purpose of regulating the liberalized Estonian fuel and energy markets, constituting a legal basis for the operation of both grid connected wind turbines and autonomous wind energy systems as independent power producers (IPP’s), in the Energy Act termed Energy Enterprises.
Available data indicates that wind can constitute a viable domestic source of energy, as average wind speeds of about 6 m/s (at 10 m) are reported at many coastal regions of Estonia. With state-of-art wind energy technology this means cost of wind produced electricity at about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh. The ongoing liberalization of the energy sector in Estonia will lead to world market level cost of energy, e.g. about 0.9 EEK/kWh making wind energy competitive with new fossil fueled power plants.
There is a viable wind energy resource in Estonia. The topography and the existing grid appear to favour large scale deployment of wind energy applications. International experience shows that in deployment of wind energy applications electric utilities have crucial roles to play as technology carriers, and also that they will benefit from a greener image and the consequent increase in public acceptance and from the new business opportunities involved.
At present Eesti Energia has a surplus of generating capacity. However out phasing of generating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to meet no later than year 2010. Wind energy technology has a certain lead time as any new energy technology, and a lead time of 10-15 years is estimated in the case of Estonia, depending on the level of ambition of the main stakeholders and the development of cost of electricity.
On this background and seen in the context of Letters of Interest signed by the Estonian Ministries of Economy and Environment in 1995, it is recommended to initiate a sequence of activities as described in the report with the aim to initiate and support a sustainable deployment of wind energy in Estonia: • First step should be to undertake a detailed feasibility study of a grid connected (600 kW) wind energy demonstration and if found viable to implement a demonstration plant. A Letter of Intent to this effect was signed by Eesti Energia in 1997. • Subsequent steps should include detailed planning/feasibility studies of autonomous (150 kW) wind energy demonstration and the associated capacity building, activities to be implemented if found viable Capacity building, if found viable, should include the support of specific activities in an Estonian wind energy knowledge center at TTU, including a small ( up to 150 kW) modem wind turbine for R&D and training purposes.
It is proposed to allocate grant money for these activities under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
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References
1. Project report Utilization of Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea Region: Visit in Estonia 19 - 22 September, 1995. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates ApS, October 1995, 12 pp + Appendices. 2. Acceptance Review Report Refurbishing of Genvind 150 kW Wind Turbine at Tahkuna, Island of Hiiumaa, Estonia. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates ApS, September 1997,11 pp + Appendices. 3. Draft PHARE Programme Report Energy Strategy for Estonia - Prospects for environmentally compatible energy future. ECN Policy Studies, April 1997, 91 pp. 4. Estonian Energy Act. Final text after approval by President on 3 July 1997. English translation prepared by the Estonian Power legislation Project / 8 July 1997,21 pp. 5. Estonian National Environmental Strategy. Estonian Environment Information Centre 1997. Approved by Parliament 12 March 1997. 6. Velio Selg. Perspective of Exploiting Wind Energy in Estonia - Extended Use of Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea Region. Report on the opening and
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APPENDICES
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A Project Proposal, TOR
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 21 of 116 C:\WORKDIR\Dantp Proj\ESTONlA\Fase 1 Report\Report outline.wpd Eesti Vabariigi Majandusministeerium Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Republic of Estonia Tallinn, 23 September, 1996 Danish Energy Agency Amaliegade 44 DK 1256 Copenhagen K Denmark
Att: Ulla Vestergard Rasmussen
Wind Energy in Estonia: Feasibility study and project identification
With reference to previous communication please find enclosed a revised project description for a project within the Danish - Estonian agreement of co-operation in this area. It is proposed to initiate phase one of the project as soon as possible with the purpose of clarifying matters and identifying possible project activities and participants for phase 2 and possible subsequent phases.
It is estimated that Phase 1 could be carried out within a time frame of approximately three months by Danish consultants in co-operation with Estonian Experts, and it is proposed that Damp Associates ApS could undertake the work on the Danish side while experts from Tallinn Technical University could co-ordinate the Estonian contribution.
The result of phase 1 should be a report that includes recommendations and budget estimates as to which projects and other activities should be included in phase 2. The recommendations should include indications of possible Danish and other international sources of financing of possible demonstration and implementation projects, that may follow from phase 2.
Based on the outcome of phase 1 a budget for phase 2 will be negotiated with the Danish Energy Agency for projects or activities, that have been positively evaluated in phase 1.
Yours sincerely
Mart Mallo
Haiju sir. 11 Phone: (372) 625 63 04 Hansapank 767 EBXXH Tallinn, ESTONIA Fax: (372) 63 1 36 60 a/a 22-114744 An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia - Feasibility and Project Identification
Summary
There is in Estonia an interest in implementing wind energy in regions where wind energy is economically feasible. In 1995 a brief study was undertaken with the aim of assessing the possibilities for implementing wind energy in Estonia. During this visit a Letter of Interest was signed by the Vice Chancellor (Energy) of the Ministry of Economy and the Chancellor of the Ministry of Environment, stating that There is in Estonia an interest in implementing wind energy in regions where wind energy is economically feasible. An investigation of possibilities for projects with Danish funding contribution should be undertaken. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specific project activities. If found feasible, one or more project activities should be implemented.
This is the basis for the present project proposal made within the Danish - Estonian agreement of co-operation in this area. It is proposed to carry out the project in a phase 1 with pre feasibility/project identification and a phase 2 with feasibility studies. It is the intent that the project should lead on to demonstration and implementation projects with international financial contributions.
It is furthermore proposed to initiate phase one as soon as possible with funding from the Danish Energy Agency with the purpose of clarifying matters and identify possible projects, participants and sponsors for phase 2 and possible subsequent phases. Phase 1 should be carried out within a time frame of three months by Danish consultants in co-operation with Estonian Experts. The result of phase 1 should be a report with
• An assessment of the wind energy situation in Estonia • An overview of possible projects and other wind energy related activities in Estonia • Recommendations including budget estimates for projects and other activities in Estonia to be included in phase 2.
The recommendations should include indications of possible Danish and other international sources of financing of possible demonstration and implementation projects, that may follow from phase 2. Based on the outcome of phase 1 a budget for phase 2 will be negotiated with the Danish Energy Agency for projects or activities, that have been positively evaluated in phase 1. I
I Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 Background
In 1995 a brief study was undertaken with the aim of assessing the possibilities for implementing wind energy in Estonia 1. The study was carried out around a visit of approximately one week by Dr. Per Lundsager, Darup Associates ApS, Denmark, and Dr. Seppo Islander, SI Credit Oy, Finland. The visit was arranged by Mr. Velio Selg of Tallinn Technical University.
During this visit a Letter of Interest was signed by the Vice Chancellor (Energy) of the Ministry of Economy and the Chancellor of the Ministry of Environment, stating that There is in Estonia an interest in implementing wind energy in regions where wind energy is economically feasible. An investigation of possibilities for projects with Danish funding contribution should be undertaken. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specificproject activities. If found feasible, one or more project activities should be implemented. This is the basis for the present project proposal.
The present situation in Estonia regarding wind energy and wind resources is described by Velio Selg and Amo Valma in Appendix. The Government of Estonia has identified the development of infrastructure including energy sector as a strategic component in the stable development towards a market economy. In recent years different kinds of renewable energy have become attractive as an energy source in many countries, in Estonia, which is surrounded by water from three quarters and therefore rather open to winds, the wind power seems to be most interesting and promising.
The wind resource seems to be similar to the Danish wind resource, and measurements indicate better condition on islands and in coastal regions. The economic factors look more positive at island sites too.
A wind atlas for Estonia is being made with participation by Riso National Laboratory. A few wind power projects are in various stages of implementation, including a 150 kW wind turbine at Tahkuna on the Hiiumaa North Cape, sponsored by the Danish Energy Agency, and a wind diesel battery system on the island Prangli with a 150 kW wind turbine, sponsored by European Union and Danish/Finnish Government funding.
On a general level the expected escalation rate of real cost of electricity may make wind energy a viable option when costs are levellized over the entire economic life. This tendency seems to be 1 2
1 Project Report Utilization of Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea Region: Visit in Estonia 19-22 September, 1995. Per Lundsager, Darup Associates ApS, 26 October, 1995,12 pp + Appendices
2 Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 general for the Baltic region, and it is combined with an anticipated increased environmental awareness.
There is in Estonia an interest in and understanding of the benefits of wind energy (and renewables in general), but the main priorities for Estonian funding at present are clearly in heavy issues of infrastructure rather than renewables. Therefore, development in this area presently has to rely mostly on international funding.
Objectives
The primary objective should be to carry out the investigation of possible projects with Danish funding contribution. The investigation should be neutral with respect to manufacturers interests but related directly to Estonian authorities and other decision makers. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specific project activities.
The main purpose of the project is to assist Estonian authorities and other decision makers in outlining the problems and possibilities for using wind energy (and maybe other renewables). A neutral and comprehensive decision basis for development and implementation of wind energy will be provided as a result of a broad survey and clarification of issues.
Scope of Work
The project activities include identification and specification of concrete projects, where wind energy is implemented. It also includes identification of areas, where the technical and institutional infrastructure would need to be strengthened in order to provide sufficient support for the implementation of wind energy and other renewable energies.
Phase 1 has the character of a prefeasibilitv study of limited extent and duration, in which a general assessment of problems and possibilities is carried out. Main purpose is to clarify the situation to an extent necessary for the Danish and Estonian authorities to decide on the content, extent and duration of phase 2. Actions in phase 1 include
• Collection and analysis of existing data, including previous project experiences • Review of institutional issues, including policy & legislation issues • Review of technical issues, including technology transfer and production capabilities • Review of economical issues, including rates, subsidies and financing • Review of possible project opportunities and identification of relevant projects for phase 2 (and subsequent phases)
Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 Phase 1 should include an assessment of how Estonia could benefit from the Danish experience of implementing wind energy as part of a national energy policy. Examples include subsidising, certification, testing and R&D, rates etc.
An important part of phase 1 is project identification, i.e. identify and select projects to be included in phase 2, to the extent necessary for the potential sponsor of phase 2 (including Danish Energy Agency) to decide whether to carry out the detailed assessments of phase 2 and the associated activities.
Phase 2 activities include a feasibility study , in which specific projects are processed in terms of assessments of possible projects and associated activities identified in phase 1, provided a positive outcome of phase 1. Activities include
• Detailed site assessment, including resource assessment • Detailed technical-economical assessment of each proposed site & project • Detailed implementation plans, including possibilities for coproduction • Detailed financial plans, including identification of international financiers and, if possible, relevant international programmes, and outline of applications • Draft technical specifications for Tender Documents, and outline of project participants
If it is found to be relevant, an associated activity dealing with the institutional issues reviewed in phase 1 should be carried out in close collaboration with Estonian authorities and institutions, either in parallel to phase 2 of the feasibility study or as a part of it. Most probably the activity should continue if demonstration projects are implemented.
Main purpose of phase 2 is the assessment of project feasibility by evaluation and specification of projects/activities/actors to the extent necessary for the potential sponsor of phase 2 (Danish Energy Agency and/or other sponsors) to decide whether to carry out actual projects concerning implementation/demonstration/institutional issues. Project possibilities include:
• An Estonian (knowledge) Center for wind energy • A wind turbine of proven technology to be installed (at an Estonian Center) with the purposes of testing, R&D and demonstration. • Installation of a Simple Robust and Reliable Wind Diesel system in the Island Ruhnu for power production and demonstration purposes (Feasibility & plans). 4
4 Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 • Standard grid connected wind turbine(s) of proven technology in the island Saaremaa for power production and demonstration purposes. • Extension of existing wind energy application into integrated application of renewable energy technologies in the island Hiiumaa (already a "Biosphere Preservation Area"). • Wind Diesel R&D (at an Estonian Center) with the aim to participate in the development of future, advanced wind diesel concepts. • Monitoring and follow up (for Estonian authorities) of existing wind energy projects in Estonia, such as: • Wind resource assessment • Wind energy in Hiiumaa island • Wind Diesel in Prangii island • Wind energy technology transfer
If it is found to be relevant an associated activity dealing with the institutional issues reviewed in phase 1 should be carried out in close collaboration with Estonian authorities and institutions.
Project Execution
It is proposed that the Danish Energy Agency finance phase 1 of the project under the Danish- Estonian agreement, with the purpose of clarifying matters and identify possible projects, participants and sponsors for phase 2 and subsequent phases.
Phase 1 should be carried out within a time frame of three months by Danish consultants in co operation with Estonian Experts. It is proposed, that Darup Associates ApS undertake the work on the Danish side, and that experts from Tallinn Technical University co-ordinate the work on the Estonian side. The result of phase 1 will be a report with
• An assessment of the wind energy situation in Estonia • An overview of possible projects and other wind energy related activities • Recommendations including budget estimates for projects and other activities to be included in phase 2
The recommendations will include indications of possible international sources of financing of possible demonstration and implementation projects, that may follow from phase 2. Based on the outcome of phase 1 a budget for phase 2 will be negotiated with the Danish Energy Agency for projects or activities, that have been positively evaluated in phase 1.
Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 Appendix: An outline of the Wind Energy Situation is Estonia
Estonian energy consumption before the Estonian independence was based on highly subsided and therefore very cheap energy in the Soviet Union. Now, when prices on supplies of fuels from Russia are increased to World market prices, it puts great stress on the Estonian national economy. Therefore the Government of Estonia has identified the development of infrastructure including energy sector as a strategic component in the stable development towards a market economy.
Estonia does not have substantial domestic production of natural gas, oil and coal. Those fuels have to purchased at world market price level. However, Estonia has oil shale as a substantial domestic primary fuel resource. Almost all of electricity is produced from two large oil shale power plants with total electric output 3000 MW. Total capacity of all stations of Estonian Energy System is about 3,2 TW of electric energy and 4,2 TW of thermal energy. The environmental
effects, at that, are significant with emission of gaseous pollutants (mainly SO2 and fly ash) and soil pollution. It is evident, that Estonia will continue to use oil shale in future. This will significantly contribute to the security of supply and will maintain the independence from imported energy.
At soviet period a great part, 63 % of electricity was exported to Russia and Latvia. This was profitable to the USSR. Penetrate fall of electricity use in industry has caused the decrease of production of power plants (nearly two times between 1988...1993). The part of export is reduced to 16,5% ( 1994). Consequently, the power plants are run at low load.
The current tariff rate of electricity is low, 26 ECU MWh at present, but will rise about 25% in summer 1996 and the rise will continue. In some islands, which are not connected with united grid and are supplied by Diesel generator, the cost price of electricity is six to seven times higher (e.g. island Ruhnu).
Distribution networks use nominal voltages of 35; 15; 10 and 6 kV and low voltage of 220/380 V. The electric grid of islands Saaremaa, Hiiumaa and Muhu are connected with mainland through sea cables of 35-kV. Islands Vormsi, Kihnu and some other are supplied through sea cables of 10-kV. The amount of losses in overhead lines of Estonian Energy System is relatively high - about 20%.6
6 Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 In recent years different kinds of renewable energy have become attractive as an energy source in many countries. In Estonia, which is surrounded by water from three quarters and therefore rather open to winds, the wind power seems to be most interesting and promising.
In Estonia and in many other places in the World there are on islands and other remote areas many farms, frontier guard cordons, tourists encampment and other objects, which are energy- supplied by a Diesel generator. These points are perspective for using wind energy for production electricity and for heating by an autonomous combined wind-Diesel power station.
The application of wind energy is not a new phenomena in Estonia. Already more than a hundred years ago in the islands and along the coast line there were more than a thousand windmills with the total power consumption near 10 MW which was quite a large percentage of total energy consumption in Estonia that time. There is no reason to believe that the wind energy potential has run down by the time being.
Best wind conditions are in coastal areas of islands in West-Estonia. Bigger islands Hiiumaa, Saaremaa, Kihnu and Vormsi have a normal local grid network. Connections with mainland are going on through cables in sea. Of the same value or even better is annual wind speed in islands Osmussaar, Viisandi, Naissaar, Ruhnu, Pakri and Prangli. These islands have not connection with united grid. Island Viisandi is a reservation of birds and using wind energy is not allowed there. Rest-places and air-routes of migrant birds must be taken into consideration. In any case the data of Viisandi area show a very good condition for using wind turbines in north-west and west coastal areas of Saaremaa.
The annual wind speed distributions from 1946 to 1963 show Table 1. Today ’s measurements of wind speed in Tahkuna (Hiiumaa) and Osmussaar shows, that precise measurable annual wind speed really can be higher. Wind speed in 10 and 30 m high are calculated respectively with formulas
VH=io = Vo • (10/Ho ) °'16 or VH=3o = V0 • (30/Ho ) ai6 .
The main interest and attention of big manufactories of the wind energy producing equipment in the World is given to develop the 500... 1500 kW grid connected wind turbines today. Less attention is paid to create the autonomous equipment, suitable to work in conditions of rough winter, like in Estonia. 7
7 Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 Table I
Number in Location of Height of Annual wind Calculated wind Calculated wind
map meteorological station measurements H speed V0 m/s speed VH=io m/s speed Vh =3o (Fig-1) m m/s
1 Tahkuna 13 6.4 6.1 7.3
3 Vormsi 11 5.6 5.5 6.6
9 Naissaar 13 5.8 5.6 6.6
10 Kihnu 13 6.2 5.9 7.1
4 Ruhnu 12 5.8 5.6 6.7
5 Kuressaare (Vatta) 13 5.9 5.7 (5.9) 6.7 (7.1)
6 Serve 12 6.2 6.0 7.2
8 Raugi (Muhu) 13 5.3 5.1 6.1
11 Osmussaar 13 6.8 6.5 7.8
7 Viisandi (Undva) 13 6.5 6.2 7.4
The motives of interest of Estonian power specialists about the creating the autonomous perspective middle class (50...250 kW) windmills are:
• The cost price for electricity produced by Diesel generator in Estonian islands today is very high and much higher than tariff rate;
• The thermal energy in Estonia is relatively more expensive than electrical energy. Wind energy is applicable for heating also.
• Possibilities of Estonian industry enable to start manufacture the components of windmills by projects and licences and in teamwork with foreign organisations and firms (in case Danish).
On the Biosphere Reserve of The West-Estonian Archipelago in island Hiiumaa (North cape Tahkuna) is located the first Estonian wind power station. The main investor (85%) of this project (150 kW GENVIND wind turbine) was Denmark Ministry of Environment. Danish Energy Agency is interested in continuing to develop using wind energy in Estonia .
s Project Proposal: Utilisation of Wind Energy in Estonia, 21 October 1996 Darup Associates Ltd. Per Lundsager, M.Sc (ME), PhJD. c/o CAT Center for Advanced Technology P.O.Box 30, Frederiksborgvej 399 DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Telephone Telefax Roskilde Bank Giro Bank SE (VAT) leg. no. A/S (Ltd.) reg. no. +45 4677 5925 +45 4632 1919 DK 6061-2285928 DK. 750-9308 DK12 33 91 43 DK 171.131
25 February 1996/PLu
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy (and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia
Draft Terms of Reference (TOR) for proposed project # 1: Feasibility study and project identification1
Background
Wind energy in Estonia is not economically competitive at present costs and rates, except on islands with autonomous energy supply. Indications are, however, that investments in wind energy in Estonia will be profitable over a 20 year economic life time assuming realistic and necessary developments in costs, rates and incentives. Investments in wind energy and other renewable energy technologies cannot at present be a top priority for Estonian fundings. Therefore international fundings should be applied for to introduce and demonstrate wind energy in Estonia.
In this context the most relevant activity for the near future will be the investigation of possible implementation projects with international (in casu Danish) funding contribution. The investigation should be neutral with respect to manufacturers interests but related directly to Estonian authorities and other decision makers. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation ofspecific project activities. If found feasible, one or more projects should be implemented.
Present situation
There is in Estonia an interest in and understanding of the benefits of wind energy (and renewables in general), but the main priorities for Estonian fundings at present are clearly focused on issues of infrastructure rather than renewables. Therefore, development in this area presently has to rely mostly on international fundings.
These TOR are drafted by Darup Associates Ltd. as a possible basis for discussions between the relevant parties. They do not in any way commit the Danish and Estonian authorities.
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization Page 1 of 4 of Wind Energy (and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia 25 February 1996 Darup Associates Ltd. Per Lundsager, M.Sc (ME), Ph.D.
The wind resource seems to be similar to the Danish wind resource, and measurements indicate better conditions on islands and in coastal regions. At inland sites economic factors seem at present less favourable for wind energy than technical factors. At island sites, however, economic factors look more positive.
Furthermore, on a general level the expected escalation rate of real cost of electricity may make wind energy (and other renewables) a viable option when costs are levellized over the entire economic life. This tendency seems to be general for the Baltic region, and it is combined with an anticipated increased environmental awareness.
Purpose of the project
There is a need for an investigation of possibilities for implementation projects with foreign, in casu Danish, funding contribution. An important point is that the investigation should be neutral, i.e. not related to specific manufacturers interest, but directly related to Estonian authorities and other decision makers. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specific project activities.
The main purpose of the project is to assist Estonian authorities and other decision makers in outlining the problems and possibilities for using wind energy (and maybe other renewables). A neutral and comprehensive decision basis for development and implementation of wind energy and other renewable energies will be provided as a result of a broad survey and clarification of issues including but not limited to
conditions (e.g. recources, demand) barriers (e.g. rates, regulations) infrastructure (technical, legal, administrative, responsibilities) needs & possibilities (technology transfer, coproduction) technical & economical performance of wind energy (and other renewable energies) regional & national development potential financial options (national & international)
The project activities include identification and specification of concrete projects, where wind energy is implemented. It also includes identification of areas, where the technical and institutional infrastructure would need to be strengthened in order to provide sufficient support for the implementation of wind energy and other renewable energies. Ultimately, as a consequence of these activities Estonia might develop into a Baltic "center" for wind energy and other renewable energy.
Implementation of the project
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization Page 2 of 4 of Wind Energy (and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia 25 February 1996 Darup Associates Ltd. Per Lundsager, M.Sc (ME), Ph.D.
The project opportunities identified and described in the project follow a proven pattern of project activities, organized in four phases:
1. Prefeasibility study, General assessment of problems and possibilities 2. Feasibility study, Detailed assessment of specific projects and associated activities 3. Demonstration projects, Limited scale application with Danish wind turbine technology 4. Implementation projects, Large scale application, joint venture local production.
This project pattern (often referred to as coordinated programme activities) has been applied with success in previous projects in regions of the Russian Federation and elsewhere, funded by EU and national fundings, including Danish funding. This project contains phase 1 and phase 2 project activities.
Phase 1 activities include a prefeasibility study of limited extent and duration, in which a general assessment of problems and possibilities is carried out. Actions include
Collection and analysis of existing data, including previous project experiences Review of institutional issues, including policy & legislation issues Review of technical issues, including technology transfer and production capabilities Review of economical issues, including rates, subsidies and financing Review of possible project opportunities and identification of relevant projects for phase 2 (and subsequent phases)
The prefeasibility study should include an assessment of how Estonia could benefit from the Danish experience of implementing wind energy as part of a national energy policy. Examples include subsidising, certification, testing and R&D, rates etc.
Main purpose of phase 1 is to identify and quantify activities and actors for the second phase to the extent necessary for the potential sponsor of phase 2 (in casu Danish Energy Agency) to decide whether to carry out the detailed assessments of phase 2 and the associated activities.
Phase 2 activities include a feasibility study, in which specific assessments of possible projects and associated activities identified in phase 2 are carried out, provided a positive outcome of phase 1. Activities include
Detailed site assessment, including resource assessment Detailed technical-economical assessment of each proposed site & project Detailed implementation plans, including possibilities for coproduction Detailed financial plans, including identification of international financiers and, if possible, relevant international programmes, and outline of applications
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization Page 3 of 4 of Wind Energy (and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia 25 February 1996 Darup Associates Ltd. Per Lundsager, M.Sc (ME), Ph.D.
Draft technical specifications for Tender documents, and outline of project participants
If it is found to be relevant an associated activity dealing with the institutional issues reviewed in phase 1 should be carried out in close collaboration with Estonian authorities and institutions, either in parallel to phase 2 of the feasibility study or as a part of it. Most probably the activity should continue if demonstration projects are implemented.
Main purpose of phase 2 is to evaluate and quantify projects and activities and actors for possible demonstration projects to the extent necessary for the potential sponsor of phase 2 (Danish Energy Agency or other sponsors) to decide whether to carry out actual demonstration projects.
Budget & Financing
Budget is to be agreed between the Estonian government and the Danish Energy Agency. Presumably the Danish Energy Agency will finance the entire budget for both phases.
Project Parties
Project participants are to be agreed between the Estonian government and the Danish Energy Agency. The project is expected to be implemented in cooperation between Estonian institutions, agencies & authorities and Danish consultants & institutions.
Later on, if the need arises, other parties may be included as the project itself develops and derived projects, identified as part of the present project, are implemented.
25 February 1996
Per Lundsager
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization Page 4 of 4 of Wind Energy (and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia 25 February 1996 Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
B Schedule of visits in Estonia
B.l Visit in Estonia 3-6 June, 1997
Tue June 3 Ministry of Economy Mart Mallo, Prof. Arvo Ots, Leo Munk, Velio Selg (VS), Amo Valma (AV), PL, PA, SI (Introduction)
Wed June 4 Hotel St. Barbara PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Planning & contacts)
Eesti Energia Tonu Suurkusk, Head of Development Dept. PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Wind park demo in utility grid near Tallinn)
Viimsi Vald Lembit Tammsaar, Administrator of Prangli and Naissaar islands. PL, PA, SI, VS (WD in Prangli)
Academy of Sciences Inge Roos, Estonian Energy Research Institute, PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Prangli) Also telephone contacts to:
Juri Tuisk, Director of Eesti Energia Electric Network of Islands (WD in Ruhnu, wind park demo in island grid in Saaremaa)
Ruuben Post, Director of Hiiumaa Center for Biosphere Reserve (Genvind 150 kW at Takuna)
Hotel St. Barbara Tonu Lausmaa, Director of Re- En Center Taasen. PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Data and reports)
Thu 5 June Hotel St. Barbara PL, PA, SI (Review and planning)
Tallinn Technical Univ. Prof. Arvo Ots, Head of Thermal Engineering Dept. (Kopli) PL, PA, SI, VS, AV (R&D, Center)
Paljasaare Poik Visit at the new waste water treatment plant vis a vis Kopli. PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Possible site for Wind Park Demo and R&D WTG)
Re-En Taasen Tonu Lausmaa, Director of Taasen. PL, PA, SI, VS. (Data and reports contd.)
Fri 6 June Ministry of Economy Georg Dam Nielsen (DEA/EU Phare), Leo Munk (DEA/WB). PL, PA, SI. (Review inch
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Financing options)
Hotel St. Barbara PL, PA, SI, VS, AV. (Review, data, reports). Also telephone contact to:
Mari Pank, director of the Island Institute (Saarte Institute). (Island projects)
Valdur Tiit, director of Estonian Wind Energy Association. (Island projects)
B.2 Visit in Estonia 2-5 August, 1997
Sat 02 Aug Palace Hotel Further fact finding, final planning of visit. PL, PA, SI, Velio Selg, Amo Valma.
Sun 03 Aug Hiiumaa Visit to Tahkuna. Inspection of the 150 kW Genvind wind turbine for possible completion of installation. Ruuben Post (Hiiumaa center for Biosphere Reserve), Velio Selg, PL, SI
Sun 04 Aug Palace Hotel Preparation of meeting with Eesti Energia: Memo on wind energy in Estonia. PA.
Mon 05 Aug Palace Hotel Preparation of meeting with Eesti Energia continued. PL, PA, SI.
Mon 05 Aug Eesti Energia Discussion of possible wind energy demonstrations. Draft Letter of Intent. Tonu Suurkusk (Eesti Energia), PL, PA, SI.
Mon 05 Aug Palace Hotel Summing up, planning of actions.PL, PA, SI, Velio Selg, Amo Valma.
B.3 Visit in Estonia 15 August, 1997
Fri 15 Aug Paljassaar Visit to Tallina Heitveepuhastusjaam (Tallin wast water treatment plant) on Paljassaar peninsula. Inspection of possible demonstration sites.
Fri 15 Aug Eesti Energia Discussion of possible wind energy demonstration projects. Signing of Letter of Intent. Technical director Jaak Maarend, Deputy technical director (development) Rein Tallumaa, Head of Development Department Tonu Suurkusk (Eesti Energia), PL.
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B.4 Visit in Estonia 15 - 17 December, 1997
Sun 14 Dec 97
13:00 Hotel St Barbara Velio Selg (VS), Amo Valma (AV), PL, PA, SI
Mon 15 Dec 97
09:00 TTU, Kopli Prof. Arvo Ots (TTU-TED), VS, AV, PL, PA, SI
12:00 Eesti Energia Tonu Suurkuusk, (EE), VS, PL, PA, SI
13:00 Min of Environment Deputy director general Viktor Grigoriev, Programme Coordinator Kai Helm, Division head Jaan Saar (MOEnv), VS, PL, PA, SI
14:00 Lunch
15:00 Acad, of Sciences Inge Roos (Estonian Energy Research Institute), VS,PL, PA, SI
17:00 Hotel St. Barbara Academician Ilmar Opik (Chairman, the Electricity Price Committee), VS, AV, PL, PA, SI
Tue 16 Dec 97
10:30 Min of Economy Mart Mallo (MoEcon), VS, PL, PA, SI
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C Persons & Organizations
C.l Persons met/contacted by telephone:
Mr Mart Mallo Ministry of Economy, Estonian contact person to the Danish Energy Agency on the Danish-Estonian collaboration
Prof. Arvo Ots Head of Thermal Engineering Department, Tallinn Technical University
Mr. Velio Selg Senior Scientist, (wind energy specialist), Thermal Engineering Department, Tallinn Technical University. Contact person to the Consultants in the project
Dr. Amo Valma Senior Scientist (Economist), Thermal Engineering Department, Tallinn Technical University. Contact person to the Consultants in the project
Dr. Tonu Suurkusk Eesti Energia, (Estonian State Energy Enterprise). Head of Development Department
Mr. Jtiri Tuisk Eesti Energia (Estonian State Energy Enterprise), Director of Electric Network of Islands. (By phone)
Dr. Tonu Lausmaa Director of Re-En Center Taasen
Mr. Valdur Tilt Director of Estonian Wind Energy Association (By phone)
Mr. Ruuben Post Director of Hiiumaa Center for Biosphere Preserve, Estonian counterpart in the 150 kW Genvind WTG project at Tahkuna. (By phone)
Ms. Inge Roos Academy of Sciences, Estonian Energy Research Institute, Estonian counterpart in the EU/Phare Prangli WD project.
Mr. Lembit Tammsaar Viimsi Community, Director of Department responsible for Prangli and Naissaar Islands
Ms. Man Bank Director of Saarte Institute, the Island Institute. (By phone)
Mr. Leo Munk Ministry of Economy, resident team leader (WB matters) under contract to Danish Energy Agency
Mr. Georg Dam Nielsen Ministry of Economy, resident project leader (EU Phare) under contract to Danish Energy Agency
Mr. Rein Hanni Director, Association of Small Energy Producers. (By phone)
C.2 Others
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Lembit Valli Managing director, Laanemaa Elektrivorgud (NW Mainland), HQ in Hapsalu. T: +372 4756391 F: +372 47 57018 Melita Lillepu Secretary for Lembit Valli
Aleksander Moltsar Managing director, Pohya region (NE mainland). T: +372 2745400
Mr. Kara Town Planning Department (owns Paljassaar) Water Cleaning Factory owned by City of Tallinn (Eesti Energia?)
C.3 Organisations
Ministry of Economy. The Energy Sector of the Ministry of Economy is in charge of the energy policy of Estonia. The strategic decisions on future development of entire energy supply of the country as well as on consumer price of energy are prepared and practically made by this ministry. The shape of the future electricity producing system and the role of renewable sources of energy including wind energy, a both political and economical question, will be handled by this ministry. So far the policy has been to maintain the existing centralized production structure mainly based on oil shell burning plants in Narva, but privatization of the fuel and energy sector in Estonia is at an advanced stage. The Energy Sector of the Ministry of Economy is the Estonian counter part to the Danish Energy Agency in the Danish-Estonian country agreement on the energy sector.
Ministry of Environment. Indirectly plays a role of “national and international conscience ” on sustainable development in the country, meaning control on industrial and energy production methods. The pressure is naturally conveyed to the national decision making through the government as well as partly through the national and international media.
Electricity Price Committee (Min of Econ): Umar Opik Academician, Chairman of Committee Mart Motus Secretary
Eesti Energia Jtiri Kao Chairman of the Board Uudo-Rein Lehtse General Director Jaak Maarend Technical Director Rein Talumaa Deputy Technical Director (Development) Tonu Suurkusk Head of Development Department
As part of the ongoing privatisation, Eesti Energia supposedly will be the Dominant Energy Entrepreneur (in the language of the Energy Act), and the present 7 regional power distributors within Eesti Energia will become regional Energy Enterprises. The Island Energy Supply (Jtiri Tusik) supposedly will be one of them, and two other regional distributors supposedly already have: Laanema Electric in the north west and Pohjia Electric in the north east. Their relationship with the Island Power Supply is not clear.
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Saarte Energivorguud: (Director Jtiri Tuisk) It seems relevant to mention Saarte Energivorguud (Estonian Energy Island Power Supply) as a separete organisation, even if it is part of the main Eesti Energia. Firstly it is the entity with responsibility for all islands, and therefore demonstrations on islands most probably need the cooperation of the Island Power Supply, even if it is done with Eesti Energia as main counterpart. Secondly, as a consequence of the ongoing privatisation, it may become one of the relevant regional Energy Enterprises (or entrepreneurs)
Regional Power Distributors: The regional energy entrepreneurs resulting from the privatisation of the regional power distributors of Eesti Energia. Two are already privatised (or in the process of), and they are to become members of Estonian Power & Heat Association (according to its chairman Rein Hanni). Laanema Electric: (Director Lembit Valli). The NW regional distribution company with responsibility for e.g. Vormsi Island. Headquarters in Harpsalu on the way to Hiiumaa. Pohyija Electric: (Director Aleksander Moltsar) The NE regional distribution company (including Narva?) Supposedly with responsibility for Prangli and Naissar islands.
Tallinn Technical University, Thermal Engineering Department. (Department head professor Arvo Ots). A prominent stakeholder in the field of wind energy in Estonia due to the activities of the department by Senior Scientists Mr. Velio Selg and Dr. Aamo Valma, under the leadership of professor Ots. Active in the dissemination of information to political and economical decision makers on modem wind technology and its potential as a competitive component within the future electricity supply of Estonia. Considered a strong candidate in case Estonia decides to establish a Wind Energy Knowledge Center.
Estonian Acricultural University - Eesti pollumajandusulikool, Tartu Has organized (Valdur Tiit) in 1995 a conference On the Opportunities for Wind Energy in Estonia. Participants included Eesti Energia and other Estonian organizations involved with energy research and development in addition to international representation from Denmark, Finland, Germany and Sweden. The Tartu University has collaborated with University of Kockum in elaborating an Estonian Wind Atlas, to be published by Tartu Geographical Institute early 1998. It has not been possible to get access to the wind atlas prior to its publication.
Tallinn Town Planning Commission: (Secretary Mr. Kara). The Town Planning Department owns Paljassaar, where the WasteWater Treatment Plant owned by City of Tallinn operates. Have been visited as one candidate site for the grid connected demonstration.
Institute of Energy Research. (Ms. Inge Roos) Part of the Academy of Sciences. Was the Estonian counterpart in the EU/Phare wind diesel project on Prangli (now cancelled).
Re-En Center TAASEN. (Director Tonu Lausmaa) Belongs to the organization of Institute of Energy Research. Activities include measurements on wind conditions in various points (Prangli, Hiiumaa,...).
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The Biosphere Reserve of West-Estonian Archipelago - Laane-Eesti Saarestiku Biosfaari Kaitseala. As an organization active in nature protection and preserving the biosphere of the West-Estonian Archipelago the reserve, whose head quarters are situated in Kardla town on the island of Hiiumaa, has a profound interest in developing the necessary energy system of the islands along the lines of sustainability requirements. This organization has established operational contacts with the corresponding bodies in the archipelagos of other Baltic See countries (Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany,...). The first grid connected wind turbine was erected on the Northernmost cape of Hiiumaa (Tahkuna) in co-operation between the Biosphere Reserve and the Danish Environment Protection Agency. The problems related to the finalizing of the installations of the Genvind 150kW turbine were solved as a result of the activities of present project.
Estonian Power and Heat Association. (Director Rein Hanni) An association established by the 26 biggest energy enterprises on September 28,1995 to combine efforts by various independent small and medium size energy producers, and to co-ordinate joint programmes to develop their acceptability and related legislation. Non-profit, non-governmental association including some regional Estonian energy utilities (fossil fuels & renewable energy), boiler plants, district heating enterprises, and affiliated suppliers of equipment and services from Estonia and from abroad and associated network enterprises. A brief profile of the association is included in Appendix I
Estonian Wind Power Association Established in 1980 ’s by the Wind Power enthusiasts in Estonia (Velio Selg et al.) in a close cooperation with the Finnish Wind Power Association. Current status not clear.
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D Overall and Institutional Issues
D.l Energy Act Concepts The purpose of the Energy Act is to regulate fuel and energy markets. It is laid out to comply with EU legislation and it provides the legal framework for operation of wind energy systems in connection with the national power supply system. It operates with the following concepts:
Fuel and Energy Enterprises are entities that deal with production, transmission & handling and distribution of fuel and energy. The concept of Independent Power producer (IPP) is included in the concept of Energy Entrepreneur.
Fuel and Energy Equipment is equipment to be used for production (incl Wind Turbines), transmission & handling, and distribution of fuel and energy.
Operation of Fuel and Energy Equipment in the fuel and energy area requires a Technical Licence of a Technical Inspection License, depending on the role to be played, and both types of licence are issued by the National Board of Technical Inspection.
Operation as a Fuel and Energy Enterprise requires a Market License, issued by the Energy Market Agency, which also must approve rates and conditions for major parties.
A Network Entrepreneur operates the national transmission network (or regional distribution networks), and a network entrepreneur is required to allow connection by all users and producers in the territory, i.e. also wind energy systems. Conditions are to be established by the Government of Estonia.
A Large User may be a local distribution network and other entities operating at 35 kV or more.
A Dominant Power Entrepreneur must operate under terms & conditions defined by the Market License approved by the Energy Market Agency.
A Dominant Network Entrepreneur (e.g. Eesti Energia) must offer prices & tariffs to be approved by the Energy Market Agency
The power networks are termed trunk networks if they operate at 110 kV or more, while they are termed distribution networks if they operate at 110 kV or less.
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D.2 Wind Resources
According to the study presented in ref 10 the wind resource in the coastal regions is represented by the measurements shown in the table below. The stations and a 6.0 m/s iso wind curve (also from ref 10) is shown on the next page.
Meteorological Measurement Average Calculated Calculated station height wind speed wind speed wind speed (#) (Name) H(m) V0 (m/s) VH=io (m/s) VH=3o (m/s) 1 Tahkuna 13 6.4 6.1 7.3 3 Vormsi 11 5.6 5.5 6.6 Pakri 13 5.6 5.4 6.4 9 Naissaar 13 5.8 5.6 6.6 10 Kihnu 13 6.2 5.9 7.1 4 Ruhnu 12 5.8 5.6 6.7 Soru 13 5.8 5.6 6.6 5 Kuressaare 13 5.9 5.7 6.7 6 Sorve 12 6.2 6.0 7.2 8 Raugi 13 5.3 5.1 6.1 11 Osmussaar 13 6.8 6.5 7.8 7 Vilsandi 13 6.5 6.2 7.4
The annual mean wind speeds for station 6, Sorve in Saaremaa, for the years 1971 - 83 are shown on the following page. The value given in the table above is the average for the years 1953 -63.
This level of wind resource is in accordance with the findings on the wind resource in the Baltic Sea Region of the study presented in ref 15.
With state-of-the-art wind turbines this means cost of wind produced energy at about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh, comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal fired power plant.
C:\WORKDIR\DarupProj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 Report\Report outlme.wpd Implementation of wind energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Page 43 of 116 GULF OF FINLAND
6,0 m/s TALLINN
REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA * Area 45,227 sq. km 1 - Tahkuna 33
2 - Prangli c:
3 - Vormsi
- CO 4 Ruhnu
5 - Vatta CO 6 - Sorve I 7 - Vilsandi A 8 - Raugi 9 - Naissaar 10 - Kihnu 11 - Osmussaar
LATVIA
i Annual wind speed in Serve (Saaremaa) Height of measurements 12 m Average annual wind speed in 1950 -1963 was 6.2 m/s
5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 Annual wind speed, m/s Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
D.3 Electricity supply systems
The main power plant in the Estonian electricity supply system is the oil shale power plant in Narva.
The electricity transmission and distribution system consists of high voltage lines of 110 kV, 220 kV and 330 kV. The distribution system consists of 7 regional distribution companies with 110 kV high voltage lines and 35 kV medium voltage lines. The two major islands Saaremaa and Hiumaa are connected to the mainland by 35 and 110 kV sea cables.
The electric network of Eesti Energia is shown on the next page. There is a reasonably good coverage of 110 kV lines in the coastal areas with good wind, and these regions have very good coverage of 35 kVlines and local low voltage lines in these regions.
The technical standard of high voltage lines is generally considered satisfactory, while low voltage lines are considered in quite bad shape with transmission losses as high as 20% or more. Improvements of the low voltage lines are included in the forecasted tariffs.
C:\WORKDIR\Darup Proj\ESTONJA\Fase 1 Report\Report outline.wpd Implementationof wind energy in Estonia,Phase 1 Page 46 of 116 Electric Networks and Power Stations of SE Eesti Energia
Tmlay tint energy system covers tint whole territory of Estonia. Foundation for that was laved at the end of previous rentary when in 1893 the first industrial power station was started. In 1939 the existing power stations and electrical networks were united into state power lhvmy system. Ahlino and Kohlla J.nvii PS , We were named SE Eesti Etiergiu in 1991. During the financial year SE Eesti Enevgia consisted of 5 power stations, biggest boiler-houses, district heating in North-Estonian towns, all transmission lines, with voltage up to 330 kv and most distribution networks.
NAvaSr \ Ru,
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Electrical Networks of SE Eesti Energia Substation Line Pawn Station
1. Northern Electrical Networks 330 kV 2. Viru Electrical Networks 3. Southern Electrical Networks 4. Electrical Networks of Islands 220 kV 5. Electrical Network of Tallinn o 6. Laanemaa Electrical Network 110 kV 7. Electrical Network of Narva 35 kV cable 110 kV cable * From 19.06.96 the voltage of Sindi substation is 330 kV. Valmlera Plhkva 3 4 Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
D.4 Rates & tariffs
The structure of rates & tariffs is quite complex, as seen from the table next page. Rates & tariffs depend on factors including time and size of consumption, voltage of connection point and type of consumption (active or reactive).
The development of rates since 1992 is shown on the following two pages. In current prices the rates have increased by some 30% per year, but inflation has been brisk, so the increase in real prices have been much smaller. Forecasts assume that rates & tariffs in Estonia will continue to increase until world market levels are reached within 5-10 years (maybe even sooner). It is furthermore expected that the inflation of EEK relative to USD will reduce to near zero, so that tariffs are expected to stabilize on some 0.08 USD or 0.85 EEK per kWh.
C:\WORKDlR\Darup Proj\ESTONlA\Fase 1 Report\Report outline.wpd Implementation of wind energy in Estonia,Phase 1 Page 48 of 116 Tarif Structure in Estonia 1996 Active Energy Reactive Energy Base Tarif Time Tarifs cent/kWh cents/kWh Consumer Groups Subgroup Payment Power Payment Consumer Day Time Day Time Night Time Use Transaction Variants kr/kW/month Payment 07.00-12.00 12.00-23.00 cents/kVArh by Grid kr/A/month cents/kVArh I Consum. more than 400 kW per one substation A Voltage at connection 51,0 27,6 31.2 29,6 19,4 3,8 7,6 or measuring system point 110 kV or more 30,4 B Voltage at connection 56,- 30,6 34,6 32,8 21,6 4,3 7,6 point 6 - 35 kV 33,7 C Voltage at 61,- 33,5 37,8 35,8 23,6 5.0 7.6 connection less than 6kV 36,8
II Consum. less than 400 kW per one substation A Voltage at connection 1 phase 2,50 37.7 42.6 40.4 24.7 5.0 7.6 or measuring system. By Choice of Consumer point less than 6kV 3 phase 7,50 will dedefine whether Variant A, B, or C 41.5 B Voltage at connection 48.6 53.5 33 5.0 7.6 point less than 6kV C Voltage at 43.2 47.5 30.5 4.3 7.6 connection point 6 - 35kV III Seller 7,- C C+2,0 0,61 C 4.1 6.8 IV Home user 38,1/45,0 38,1/45,0 18,6/22,0 V Part Time User A(1 phase) 53,- B(3 phase) 159,- VI Night Time Users, consumption controllers A Voltage at connection 3,- 19.3 4.3 7.6 100kW or more point 6kV or more B Voltage at connection 3,- 22.4 5.0 7.6 point less than 6kV
Notes: * VAT 18% will be added to tarifs, home users tarif contains (?) VAT * User belongs to consumer group I or II based on electric parameters, not depending on field of action or property. * Rating system is based on present tarifs of electricity, data of measuring device, programme timer, or tarif counter measured at one site of activities, or only estimated values * The Electicity Tarif does not include expenses of actions necessary to connect new users into the grid. Serrti/kWh 70 20 50
— ------t i #-
A ...«, , 20.06.92 ■
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— - 11.2 30.4 01.10.95 03.09.94 01.12.92 - / yaSctk'<+t Keskmine Tariifi
tariif
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| 01.05.97
^ (?y\
i ^U as ) a ^( { Financial Report of the Management^
The management is responsible for the data presented in the attached financial reports. The financial reports were prepared in accordance with the generally accepted accounting principles of Estonia.
According to the consolidated balance sheet of State Enterprice (SE) Eesti Energia as of 31.12.95. SE Eesti Energia comprised in the past financial year of 12 enterprices, none of which was subject to separate book-keeping or taxation.
Due to the new accounting and reporting principles as specified by the accounting law that came into force 01.01.95, the beginning balances of the reporting year of 1995 have been shown according to the new principles. The implementation of new principles in the present annual report is primarily shown by a change in the grouping of data. No substantial additional costs or revenues were reported thereby.
In 1995 the net sales of the enterprises shown on the consolidated balance sheet of Eesti Energia was 2288.1 million EEK. Compared to 1994. sales grew by 463.7 million EEK in 1995.
The net profit in 1995 was 15.93 million EEK. In 1995 the net sales of the enterprises shown on the On behalf of the management. consolidated balance sheet of Eesti Energia was 2288.1 Enn Kallikorm million EEK. Financial Director Compared to 1994, sales grew by 463.7 million
EEK in 1995.
Electricity Rates in Estonia Average Electricity Rates tcents/kWh VAT included! in 1982-1895 tcents/kWh VAT excluded!
7 Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
D.5 Stakeholders
The major stakeholders in Estonian wind energy are listed in Appendix C.3. They include the following ministries, institutions, enterprises and organisations:
• Ministry of Economy. • Ministry of Environment. • Electricity Price Committee • Eesti Energia • Saarte Energivorguud • Regional Power Distributors: • Laanema Electric • Pohyija Electric • Tallinn Technical University, Thermal Engineering Department. • Estonian Acricultural University - Eesti pollumaj andusulikool, Tartu • Tallinn Town Planning Commission • Institute of Energy Research. • Re-En Center TAASEN. • The Hiiumaa Centre of the Biosphere Reserve of West-Estonian Archipelago • Estonian Power and Heat Association. • Estonian Wind Power Association
Most of these stakeholders have been involved directly or indirectly in the present study. The recommendations of the study have been discussed with and agreed upon by the following stakeholders
• Ministry of Economy • Eesti Energia • Tallinn Technical University, Thermal Engineering Department. who have expressed their intent to participate actively in phase 2 of the implementation strategy, detailed feasibility studies of wind energy demonstration in Estonia.
C:\WORKD1R'Damp Prof\ESTONlA\Fase 1 Report\Report outline.wpd Implementationof wind energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Page 52 of 115 ESTONIAN POWER AND HEAT ASSOCIATION
Brief information
Non-profit, non-governmental association of Estonian energy utilities, ( fossil fuels & renewable energy ), boiler plants , district heating enterprises and affiliated suppliers of equipment and services from Estonia and abroad and associated network enterprises.
Established: by the 26 biggest energy enterprises on September 28,1995. Approved by the Government of Estonia, February 07,1996. Office opened: from April 1996. Members: 33, January 1997 Main areas of activity:
* to work out drafts for technical rules/ instructions and to make proposals for a legislative acts on behalf of members;
* to collect and to analyze information from members and to work out advises to im prove efficient and environmentally friendly supply of energy;
* to inform members about available new technologies, energy conservation, materials services etc.
* to co-operate with sister associations and other corresponding organizations in Es tonia and abroad;
* to assist members on implementation of international projects ( PHARE, EBRD, TDA etc. );
Methods of work :
* permanent technical and economical committees for determination targets and for nomination temporary working groups;
* temporary working groups for special short term problems;
* office responsibilities are: - to support committees and working groups; - international relations; - co-ordination of training ’s, seminars, etc.
Street address: Post: Tel/fax: + 372 6 42 26 52 53.Vilmsi str. P.O.Box 969 Mobil: + 372 5 25 26 24 Tallinn EE0001 EE0034 Tallinn, Estonia E-mail: [email protected] Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
E Previous Project Experience
Previous wind energy projects are few. Only two have been dealt with in the present study, both of them with technical and financial participation from Denmark:
• 150 kW Genvind wind turbine at Tahkuna, Hiiumaa island • 150 kW wind diesel system on Prangli island
The two previous projects are described in the fact sheets included in Appendix E. The wind turbine at Tahkuna is now in operation (because the present project intervened and participated in the final stages of installation and commissioning), but the wind diesel system in Prangli did never materialize. Nevertheless the lessons learnt from the two projects are essentially the same:
• A strong technology carrier is necessary to support the end user in technical, organizational and project related matters. • Sufficient revenues from sales of electricity must be ensured in order to provide successful, sustainable operation of a wind energy plant. • Risks should be minimized, in particular for demonstration projects where failures may have a strong impact on the subsequent course of events. • A proven track record is essential for both the technology, the system solution and the manufacturer / the consortium, and this is again especially important for demonstrations.
Delays in obtaining local building permits apparently contributed to the failure of the Prangli project.
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E.l Genvind 150 kW at Tahkuna
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Fact Sheet: Previous project experience Genvind 150 kW wind turbine in Tahkuna, Hiiumaa island.
The Previous project: The Genvind project was financed by the Danish Environment Protection Agency, ref 124/000-0003 (formerly 127-0460). Contact persons Ms. Tina Kruger / Ms. Trine Holmberg.
Estonian counterpart is the Hiiumaa Center for Biosphere Preserve, Contact person is Mr. Ruuben Post, Director of the Center.
Contractor to the Danish Environment Agency is the Danish company Genvind, Director Svend Irgens Moller.
The wind turbine is a Danish Vindsyssel design, modified by Genvind to ameliorate known problems including yaw system and WTG controller problems.
The wind turbine was erected by the Contractor in cooperation with the Estonian Counterpart, but the installation was not completed by the Contractor, and eventually the Contract was canceled by the Danish EPA in April 1997.
The Present project: In May 1997 the present project (Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400) assessed the status of the wind turbine followed up by an inspection on site in August 1997, and recommended on the completion of the installation.
Following the recommendations the Danish EPA contracted Danservice ApS to complete the installation, which was done in September 1997. Subsequently the Danish EPA has contracted Danservice to undertake training of staff and provide service backup.
The Tahkuna wind turbine is now in operation. Due to possible effects of the long initial stand still the wind turbine operates under extended supervision, part of which is the service backup by Danservice.
No further action by the present project is deemed necessary.
Previous project history (Danish EPA file 124/000-0003) Background: The wind turbine was installed in Tahkuna on the Island Hiiumaa in the fall of 1995. Per Lundsager and Seppo Islander visited the wind turbine in September 1995 (ref 1), and at that time the wind turbine was erected, and according to Ruuben Post it was operational except for some missing cables.
The cables in the wind turbine tower to connect the nacelle with the switch board and controller in the tower base were missing. This was the responsibility of the Contractor, and cables were allegedly shipped to Estonia in the fall of 1995. Before leaving the site Genvind
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 57 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darop ProjVESTONLA\Fase 1 Report\Repcrt outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Genvind 150 kW wind turbine in Tahkuna, Hiiumaa drained the oil off the gearbox, due to a small oil leak caused by transport damage. It was the intention to fix the leak at the next visit and to fill the gearbox oil back in at the next visit.
Power cables connecting the step-up trafo with the wind turbine switch board in the tower base were missing. This was the responsibility of the Estonian counterpart, and the cabling was allegedly completed in 1995 (1996?).
1st Genvind reconstruction: After shipping the cables Genvind was reconstructed due to financial problems. Major new shareholders were Miljoudvikling A/S (Environment Development Ltd), and Wind World (another Danish wind turbine manufacturer). A supplementary contract on completing the installation of cables and commissioning of the turbine was granted from the Danish Environment Agency to the 1st reconstruction of Genvind. However, the contract was not fulfilled and the Danish Environment Agency eventually by letter of 23 April 1997 terminated the contract with Genvind.
2nd Genvind reconstruction: In May 1997 Genvind was again reconstructed due to financial problems. The director Sv. Irgens Moller now owns all the shares of the 2nd reconstruction of Genvind.
Status May 1997: The wind turbine has been standing with drained gearbox since September 1995, and according to Genvind there is a minor oil leak in an oil pipe junction at the gearbox.
It is not known, whether the rotor has been turned during the stand still. Consequently there may be damage to some of the bearings (The Vindsyssel/Genvind design uses an integral gearbox and main shaft layout, and experience shows that bearings on the secondary gear shaft may be damaged during such prolonged stand still), and in any case the gearbox need to be flushed with special oil before refilling with lubrication oil.
According to Ruuben Post the wind turbine switch board is connected to the grid, but power and control cables in the wind turbine tower are missing. Consequently the presence of the shipped cables needs to be confirmed, or alternatively new cables must be shipped, and generator and control computer need to be coupled up, respectively.
After completion of the installation including necessary repairs, if any, the wind turbine needs a regular commissioning including the usual commissioning tests to ensure proper functions and performance.
Present project (Danish Energy Agency J.nr. 2136/053-960400): Preliminary inspection August 1997: During a visit to Estonia 02 - 05 August 1997 as part of the present project the Genvind wind turbine was inspected by Per Lundsager and Seppo Islander together with Ruuben Post and Velio Selg on 03 August 1997. The tower access door has been locked all the time, and the wind turbine appears not to have been vandalized. It was not possible to inspect the nacelle as access requires the nacelle to be turned.
The inspection confirmed the status outlined above. The cables from the nacelle are curled up at the lowest tower platform, and oil spills from the oil leak are clearly evident. Tools and
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Proposed Actions August 1997: It was proposed, that the wind turbine installation is completed and the wind turbine is put in normal operation after commissioning. Prior to completion of the installation, the wind turbine should be inspected and the defects made good. This would include the following actions:
1. Preparations: Further clarification from home office of the situation: Presence of cables, known defects etc. Purchase of the necessary materials: Cables, bearings, oil etc. Also practical arrangements for subsequent actions 2. Inspection: On site inspection and check of the wind turbine. If it is deemed possible to complete the installation as planned, work is continued. If it is deemed impossible because major repair is found necessary, work is discontinued and the findings are reported, including budget for necessary repairs. 3. Completion of installation: Minor repairs are made, including connection of cables. All functions are checked and the wind turbine is left in grid connected operation. 4. Report: The activities are reported for the Danish and Estonian parties. In case major repair is needed, the report contains recommendations and associated budgets.
It was recommended that the completion of the installation as described above be carried out by a Danish wind turbine service company with experience in this kind of work, in cooperation with an engineering specialist with experience in wind turbine design and engineering, under supervision of the present project.
It was recommended that the company Danservice with experience from similar tasks including Genvind 150 kW wind turbines was contracted to complete the installation and to put the wind turbine in operation as outlined above.
Finally it was recommended, that after putting the wind turbine in operation a separate service contract should be negotiated with Danservice to undertake training of staff and provide service backup..
Completion of installation September 1997: In September 1997 Danservice ApS of Denmark was contracted as technical consultant by the Danish Environment Protection Agency (Project ref. 129 - 0056) to complete the installation of the Tahkuna wind turbine, with WEA Engineering A/S and Damp Associates ApS subcontracted as engineering consultants. Work on the site was commenced on 16 September 1997 and completed on 19 September 1997.
Preparations were made during week 37 (8 -12 September 1997). Preparations included collection of specification and documentation for the wind turbine and its controller to the extent possible, collection of tools, spares and consumables judged to be needed for the refurbishing, and initiating contacts and arrangements in Estonia.
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 59 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darup Proj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 ReportVReport outline. 1wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Genvind 150 kW wind turbine in Tahkuna, Hiiumaa Refurbishing of the wind turbine was carried out during week 38(15-19 September 1997), and the wind turbine was connected to the grid for the first time on 18 Sep 97 at 15:25. Final Acceptance Review Certificate was agreed upon and signed by all parties, and the wind turbine was left in unsupervised automatic operation from 16:35 on 19 September 1997.
In November 1997 the Danish EPA contracted Danservice to undertake training of staff and provide service backup. Due to possible effects of the long initial stand still, as discussed in the acceptance review report, the wind turbine operates under extended supervision, part of which is the service backup by Danservice.
No further action by the present project is deemed necessary.
References
Utilization of Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea Region: Visit in Estonia 19-22 September, 1995. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates Ltd. Travel Report, October 1995.
Acceptance Review Report, Refurbishing of Genvind 150 kW Wind Turbine at Tahkuna, Island of Hiiumaa, Estonia. Damp Associates Ltd, September 1997
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E.2 Wind diesel system in Prangli
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Fact Sheet: Previous project experience NAPS/Nordtank 150 kW Wind diesel system on Prangli island.
The Previous Project The main objective of the project was to improve the power supply system in Prangli by implementing a wind diesel system. As part of the project a wind resource assessment study for Prangli would be undertaken. The wind diesel system was intended to be owned and operated by a privately owned company acting as independent power producer (IPP).
The project was a joint Finnish - Danish - Estonian project with financial support from the EU / Phare programme, the Finnish Ministry of Trade and Industry, and the Danish Environment Protection Agency through the Danish Energy Agency (?).
Project participants included parties from Finland (Neste/NAPS, Beleta Oy and Finnish Meteorological Institute), Denmark (Nordtank Energy Group and Rise National Laboratory) and Estonia (Institute of Energy Research (IER); Taasen Re-En Center, a subsidiary of IER; Prangli Tuulejoud AS, the IPP)
The wind diesel power plant was of the NANOSAW concept developed jointly by NAPS (FIN) and Nordtank Energy Group (DK). The plant included a 150 kW wind turbine, a 120 kVA diesel generator and a 260 kVAh battery storage interconnected by a 80 / 100 kW power inverter / converter system.
The project was initiated in early 1994, but apparently a series of delays in obtaining the necessary building permits in Prangli prevented the project from getting underway as scheduled.
Delivery of the system components was delayed, pending the building permits, and eventually the allocated funding from the Finnish and Danish ministries was withdrawn in 1996. Subsequently the CEC funding allocation was canceled in September 1997, as the preconditions for the allocation of EU funds had disappeared with the withdrawal of the national fundings.
Consequently the project must be considered formally closed as of September 1997.
Background The main objective of the project was to improve the power supply system in Prangli by implementing a wind diesel system. As part of the project a wind resource assessment study for Prangli would be undertaken. The wind diesel system was intended to be owned and operated by a privately owned company acting as independent power producer (IPP).
Project participants included parties from Finland (Neste/NAPS, Beleta Oy and Finnish Meteorological Institute), Denmark (Nordtank Energy Group and Rise National Laboratory) and Estonia (Institute of Energy Research (IER); Taasen Re-En Center, a subsidiary of IER; Prangli Tuulejoud AS, the IPP)
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The project financing included contributions from European Union (Phare JOE3CT950014 - PL950161 through Joule JOU2-CT-93-0350, coordinated by Riso National Laboratory), Denmark (Danish Environment Protection Agency file 127-0575), Finland (Finnish Ministry of Trade and Industry through the NEM02 programme) and Estonia (Estonian Ministry of Environment). The total project sum was 3.8 mill FIM, approx 0.6 mill ECU.
Estonian counterpart was the Ministry of Environment, and coordinator was Institute of Energy Research of the Estonian Academy of Sciences (IER), initially represented by director Harry Kaar, after his death by Ms. Inge Roos.
The owner of the plant was to be Prangli Tuulejoud AS (PT), Prangli Wind Energy Company Ltd, who would also take responsibility for building and operating the plant. Ownership of PT is not entirely clear, but it includes Mr. Lembit Tammsar, administrator of Prangli and Naissaar islands in Vimsi Vald, the community on the mainland under whose administration the islands belong.
A subcontract was made between the Institute of Energy Research (as represented by Harry Kaar, director of IER and Torn Lausmaa, director of Taasen Re-En Center) and Prangli Tuulejoud (as represented by Lembit Tammsar of Vimsi Vald and Bengt Tammelin of FMI) to apply part of the CEC funding against the costs of Prangli Tuulejoud ’s participation in the project.
The wind diesel power plant was of the NANOSAW concept developed jointly by NAPS (FIN) and Nordtank Energy Group (DK). The plant included a 150 kW wind turbine, a 120 kVA diesel generator and a 260 kVAh battery storage interconnected by a 80 /100 kW power inverter / converter system.
Neste/Naps of Finland was the Contractor for supply of the system, and the project coordinator was Mr. Bengt Tammelin from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), who is also representing FMI in the ongoing cold climate R&D carried out with CEC support.
Delivery of the system components was delayed, pending the building permits, and eventually the allocated funding from the Finnish and Danish ministries was withdrawn in 1996. Subsequently the CEC funding allocation was canceled in September 1997, as the preconditions for the allocation of EU funds had disappeared with the withdrawal of the national fundings.
The project is considered to be formally closed.
Present situation As no money was released, no hardware was delivered under the project.
After the formal withdrawal of funds from the project the building permits for the wind turbine generator were obtained.
A new 80 kW Perkins diesel generator has been procured out of the Prangli budget of Vimsi Vald community. The new diesel generator is planned to be installed at the existing diesel
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According to Lembit Tammsar (Vimsi Vald, Prangli Tuulejoud) Prangli is open for a project from other sources, now that building permits and a new diesel generator are available, and a project will have high priority for the community.
A wind energy project in Prangli will also have high priority for the other stakeholders in the Prangli power supply. The Ministry of Finance (Energy Department) is financing the difference between the actual high cost of energy and the lower income from the standard tariffs, and Eesti Energia is the ultimate responsible for the power supply to Prangli and other islands without sea cable.
Proposed Actions September 1997 No actions are proposed regarding the previous project, since it must be considered formally closed. However, it is proposed to consider a new project on demonstration of wind energy on an autonomous island grid, and Prangli would be one candidate (see separate fact sheet)
References Utilization of Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea Region: Visit in Estonia 19-22 September, 1995. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates Ltd. Travel Report, October 1995.
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F Wind Energy Demonstration
F.l Background It is part of the Estonia energy policy to diversify energy supplies by improving utilization of indigenous sources of energy and to comply with the goals as to market liberalization, price/cost transparency and sustainability set up by the European Union.
The oil, petroleum and coal market has been liberalized starting in 1992. Natural gas imported from Russia is operated by Eesti Gaas, a joint stock company with 39 % state holdings, and the electricity market (Eesti Energia) is under liberalization as well as the oil- shale mining sector (Eesti Polevkivi).
Oil-shale constitutes the predominant domestic source of energy and at present oil-shale provides almost 90 % of Estonia ’s primary energy and almost all electricity is produced in oil-shale fired power plants.
Oil-shale is mined in open casts and mines at about . 10 mill, tons annually. Known commercial reserves are estimated at 1.700 mill tons. The mining process constitutes a constant environmental risk to the local flora/fauna and to the water table. Landscape restoration is carried out in mined out areas and of the mined out area about 90 % is recultivated. Long term environmental impact is however not clear.
Burning of the oil-shale loads the environment with atmospheric emissions (gases & particles) and ash. Up til now 200 mill, tons of ash has been disposed of claiming and area of 2000 HA. Leaks of alkaline water and heavy metals from this ash deposit constitutes a serious environmental risk.
Renewable energy applications in the form of peat, firewood and wood waste contribute with about 10 % of the Estonian primary energy. The potential for utilization of biomass is not known, but it can probably play a much larger role than today in both heating and co generation.
There is technical potential for hydro power of about 80 MW and this potential is under development, primarily as small-scale hydro power plants.
Solar energy applications have so far received very little attention in Estonia. With increasing energy costs solar hot water systems may constitute a viable niche as found in the Scandinavian countries with comparable climatic conditions.
Wind as source of energy in Estonia appears not yet to have been analyzed in detail, even though references to an elusive Estonian Wind Atlas can be found, but available data indicates that wind can constitute a viable domestic source of energy, as average wind speeds of about 6 m/s (at 10 m) are reported at many coastal regions of Estonia. With state-of-art wind energy technology this means cost of wind produced electricity at about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh - comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal-fired power plant.
At present there is little if any practical experience in Estonia wind energy, however the
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Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessments and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia.
F.2 Justification The ongoing liberalization of the energy sector in Estonia will lead to world market level cost of energy, e.g. about 0.9 EEK/kWh making wind energy competitive with new fossil fueled power plants.
At present Eesti Energia has surplus of generating capacity. However out phasing of generating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to meet no later than year 2010.
Growing environmental concern, partly coming from domestic politics and partly coming from international politics (as a consequence of Estonia ’s wish to conform to European standards), will without any doubt lead to an increasing interest in renewable energy applications in Estonia.
Wind energy technology is internationally mature and competitive, there is a viable wind energy resource in Estonia and the topography and existing grid extension appear to favour large scale deployment of wind energy applications.
In large scale deployment of wind energy applications electric utilities have by experience crucial roles to play as promoter, technical guarantee, financier, owner, operator, maintainer and as purchaser and distributor of wind electricity.
Same experience has demonstrated, that the utilities involved will benefit from a greener image and the consequent increase in public acceptance and from the new business opportunities involved.
Wind energy technology has a certain lead time as any new energy technology, and a lead time of 10-15 years is estimated in the case of Estonia, depending on the level of ambition of the main stakeholders and the development of cost of electricity..
F.3 Outline Proposal It is therefore proposed - using the Estonian-Danish cooperation in the field of energy as catalyst - to initiate two wind energy demonstration projects in Estonia, both with Eesti Energia involved if not directly financially then technically/operationally and as purchaser of the wind electricity produced.
The two wind energy demonstration projects proposed include:
• a grid-connected wind farm at Tallinn of about 1-2 MW (Paljassaar peninsula) • a stand-alone wind/diesel system one an island (Prangli)
Objective The main objective of the two wind energy demonstration projects is to:
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• demonstrate under Estonian conditions the viability of wind energy applications • make the wind energy technology familiar to major future stakeholders (politicians, administration, utilities, IPP’s, industry, NGO’s and the public) • prepare Eesti Energia for new future business opportunities in the field of wind energy
Methodology Before wind energy demonstration projects can be implemented a series of preparatory activities has to be carried out in order to ensure a targeted, viable and therefore successful demonstration.
The first activity is what currently is being carried out in the ongoing project with regard to a preliminary “Feasibility and Project Identification Study ”. At this stage it is proposed, that Eesti Energia participate to the extent, that it informally:
• assist with information on: national/regional plans concerning energy & the environment; constraints (legal permissions, import duties, taxes, technical constraints) and on local energy/electricity supply, costs, tariffs & conditions, expected development in tariffs, buy back rates for wind electricity etc. • comment on appropriate financial and project delivery mechanisms for wind energy • provides grid related technical data and comment on technology carriers and local institutional capacities and that it formally :
• express a willingness to take part in the investigation of the possibilities of introducing wind energy in Estonia without any commitment from the side of Eesti Energia.
A second activity will, given a positive outcome of the present first activity, be to conduct detailed and targeted feasibility studies on concrete wind energy demonstration projects - activities where the active participation of Eesti Energia is regarded as crucial.
Eesti Energia has by signing the Letter of Intent included in Appendix H formally agreed to participate acively in the demonstration of wind energy in Estonia as outlined above.
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F.4 Grid connected wind farm near Tallinn
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Fact sheet: Wind energy demonstration Grid connected wind farm near Tallinn
Project opportunity outline The project opportunity deals with demonstration of modem utility grade wind energy technology in the framework of the national electricity supply. Main objectives are
• demonstrate the technical viability of wind energy applications under Estonian conditions • make the wind energy technology visible and familiar to major future stakeholders • prepare Eesti Energia for new future business opportunities in the field of wind energy
It is not a primary objective of the demonstration project to establish generating capacity, as sufficient generating capacity exists at present.
The wind turbine equipment should be one or more wind turbines in the 500 - 660 kW range, depending on the possibilities within the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. The equipment should be supplied from a large wind turbine manufacturer with extensive international experience and a very solid international track record. The wind turbine(s) should be connected to the main grid of Eesti Energia on a good and visible site near Tallinn, in order to address all three main objectives.
The wind power plant should be owned and operated by Eesti Energia (which is less probable given the privatization of Eesti Energia) or by an independent power producer (IPP) or Energy Enterprise under agreement with Eesti Energia. In any case the active involvement of Eesti Energia as a technology carrier for grid connected wind power is crucial for the future application of wind power in Estonia. Eesti Energia has by signing the Letter of Intent included in Appendix H formally agreed to participate acively in the demonstration of wind energy in Estonia as outlined above.
It is proposed to undertake a feasibility study in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is estimated that the feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK. If a grid connected demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK.
It is furthermore proposed, that if the grid connected demonstration is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the demonstration under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. Previous experience indicates that the wind turbine(s) most probably can be delivered and erected within 3 months after signing of Contract
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Background Available data for the wind conditions in Estonia seem to indicate that wind energy may constitute a viable domestic source of energy. In the NW islands and the coastal regions of the mainland wind measured wind speeds of 5.5 - 6.5 m/s in 10 - 12 m height are similar to Danish class 1 sites. This corresponds to wind speeds of 7 - 8 m/s in hub height 45 m of a modem 600 kW wind turbine, which will produce power at a cost of 0.7 - 0.8 EEkr / kWh, comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal fired plant.
At present there is limited practical experience with wind energy in Estonia (fact sheets on Tahkuna & Prangli), and none in the framework of the electricity supply system. The present project opportunity intends to remedy that. Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessment and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia. This forms a basis for establishing institutional capabilities to support the wind energy development.
Present situation Tariffs for electricity in Estonia today (1997) are on the average 0.60 EEkr / kWh for consumers connected to the main grid, although the detailed picture is more complex (see separate annex), and at the present stage wind energy cannot easily compete with this general level. However, rates in current prices have increased steadily by more than 30% annually since 1992, (diagram Eesti Energia in Appendix D.4).
Although the rate of development is expected to reduce somewhat in the future (e.g. due to reduced inflation) the real price of electricity at the consumer may reach market level cost of energy (approx 1 EEK/kWTi plus taxes) in year 2000. (information from Committee of pricing). This expectation is supported by the conclusions in the Energy Strategy Study, that cost of energy has to increase in order to provide for the necessary investments in the coming 10 -15 years.
At present Eesti Energia has a surplus of generating capacity on the main grid, and therefore wind energy demonstrations is not viable today from the point of view of generating capacity. However, out phasing of generating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to materialize no later than year 2010, and at that time wind energy will be one option for generating capacity producing clean energy at competitive prices, given the expected tariff development.
The Estonian Energy Act recently passed parliament with the purpose of regulating the Estonian fuel and energy markets in a privatized structure. Fuel and energy enterprises and entrepreneurs will operate the production, transmission, distribution and handling of fuel and energy under a system of technical and market licenses issued by national bodies.
The Energy Act operates with the concept of network entrepreneurs, that must allow the connection of all users and power producers in the territory covered by the network entrepreneur to connect to the network, under terms & conditions and prices & tariffs to be approved by the relevant national bodies. This constitutes a legal basis for the operation of e.g. grid connected wind turbines and wind farms as independent power producers (IPP’s), in the Energy Act termed Energy Enterprises, connected to the grid. Danish experience including mixed utility/private ownership of wind energy IPP’s has been positive.
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In this privatized scenario one would expect Eesti Energia to act as a Dominant Network Entrepreneur, operating the 110 kV main trunk network as a “power highway ”. Wind energy IPP’s (Energy Enterprises) could be connected to the “power highway ” directly or through the regional 35 kV distribution networks connected to the trunk grid and presumably operated by the former regional parts of Eesti Energia, including the Island Power Supply, acting as Network Entrepreneurs.
Although the legal framework for (Wind) Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) is established through the Energy Act all the details that make the concept work (agreements, terms, conditions, prices & tariffs including buy back rates etc) are not established or finalized at present. A grid connected Wind Energy demonstration plant would be a useful vehicle for development of such implementation models including best practices for Wind Energy Enterprises (IPP’s).
The Reasoning for autonomous island grids is different from main land and sea cable connected islands, see separate fact sheet
Transmission losses from Narva to distant networks may be as high as 35 %(?), therefore WE could be more attractive on NW mainland grids & sea cable connected islands.
Justification A grid connected wind energy demonstration project cannot be justified by the addition of generating capacity, as that is not an immediate need. However, given that wind energy technology like any other new energy technology has a certain lead time, and that new generating capacity will be needed within that lead time, such a project can be justified by a number of issues relating to the introduction of wind energy.
Wind energy is internationally mature and competitive, and a large body of experience exist on how to implement wind energy in national, regional and local power supply systems. There is a need, however, to demonstrate the viability of modem utility grade wind energy technology under Estonian conditions in the framework of the national Estonian electricity supply.
In order to pave the way for wind energy as a new energy technology it is important to make the wind energy technology visible for the major future stakeholders including politicians, the administration, utilities, Energy Enterprises (IPP’s), industry, NGO’s and the public.
A well conducted and successful demonstration can serve as a vehicle to develop the various practices that are necessary for a successful implementation of wind energy, in particular the terms, conditions, rates and tariffs. At the same time Eesti Energia and other future energy enterprises will be introduced to new future business opportunities in the field of wind energy
These issues can only be addressed properly if the demonstration is done using mature equipment with a an extensive track record, supplied from a large wind turbine manufacturer with extensive international experience and a very solid international track record. Also, the wind turbine(s) should be connected to the main grid of Eesti Energia on a good and visible site near Tallinn in order to address all the issues.
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A number of suitable sites exist near Tallinn. One possibility that has been looked into is the Paljassaar Peninsula at the entrance of Tallinn harbour (see separate Annex), where wind conditions are good, a sufficiently strong grid exists and visibility in every respect is very high. Tallin’s water treatment plant is located on Paljassaar Peninsula and operates in the framework of Tallinn city administration. The water treatment plant, with a high energy consumption, could potentially be (part of) an IPP producing wind power as an Energy Enterprise.
International experience shows that in deployment of wind energy applications on national and regional levels the electric utilities have crucial roles to play as promoter, technical guarantee, financier, owner, operator, maintainer and as purchaser and distributor of wind electricity. At the same time experience also demonstrates that the utilities involved will benefit from a greener image and the corresponding increase in public acceptance, and from the new business opportunities involved.
Therefore Eesti Energia should be closely involved in the grid connected demonstration (autonomous wind energy demonstration: see separate fact sheet). This way a technical and organizational framework is provided, that 1) minimizes the risk of failure of the demonstration project and 2) maximizes the possibilities for a successful adaptation of the wind energy technology into the Estonian infrastructure. This seems to be in accordance with the intentions in the Energy Act, and Eesti Energia has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development (Letter of Intent attached).
International experience also demonstrates the importance of establishing the necessary institutional framework as part of the successful adaptation of the wind energy technology into the Estonian infrastructure technology. Tallinn Technical University has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development (see separate fact sheets).
Technical-economical feasibility Preliminary technical-economical estimates have been made using spreadsheet based models developed by Damp Associates Ltd. For simplified life cycle cost estimates for grid connected wind turbine systems.
The technical-economical estimates are based on a generic 600 kW wind turbine located on a site with an annual average wind speed in hub height of 7 m/s. The technical estimate consists of the calculation of expected annual energy production, and on this site the annual energy production is estimated to be 1546 MWh/year, assuming a Weibull wind speed distribution with parameters (A;k) = (7.90 ; 2.00) (ref: European Wind Atlas).
The economic estimate is a 20 year life cycle cost estimate in real values, i.e. compensated for inflation, and using a discount rate of 7% p.a., which is not particularly favourable towards wind energy with its high initial investments.
Seven cases are estimated in order to give an impression of what could be expected of present and future technical economical performance. The base case is assuming present (1997) values for costs & rates. The scenarios 1-3 assume base case values modified by stipulated future developments in tariffs, wind turbine costs and wind turbine efficiencies, changing one
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30, 1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 72 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\DantpProj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 ReportVRcport outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report parameter at a time to indicate the sensitivity for that parameter. Scenarios 4 and 5 combine the first three scenarios to estimate the stipulated potential economy of future systems, scenario 5 adding an expected annual increase of VOE, the electricity tariff, on top of the inflation. Finally the Demo case intends to represent a realistic estimate of the economy of a demonstration wind turbine installed under estimated 1998 conditions.
Summary of cases Case Characteristics Base Present (1997) average values for costs & rates. Value of electricity (VOE) from the wind turbine is the current tariff 0.60 EEK/kWh
Scenario 1 VOE at world market level 1.00 EEK/kWh (0.068 ECU/kWh)
Scenario 2 Wind turbine costs reduced by 10 %
Scenario 3 Wind turbine overall efficiency increased by 10 %
Scenario 4 Scenarios 1+2 + 3 combined Scenario 5 Scenarios 1+2 + 3 combined and VOE escalation rate 3 % p.a.
Demo Base case adjusted for estimated 1998 conditions VOE assumed 0.65 EEK/KWh and VOE escalation rate 2% p.a.
The future scenarios 1-5 intend to assess the impact on the economy of expected future (5 - 10 years) developments in tariffs and wind turbine performance. It is generally assumed that specific cost of wind turbines will continue to decrease while the energy production per installed kW will continue to increase.
Summary of results (ECU) Base Seen 1 Seen 2 Seen 3 Seen 4 Seen 5 Demo VOE escalation Percent 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% VOE level SS/kWh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.068 0.044 WTG Cost $$/kW 800 800 720 800 720 720 760 WTG production MWh/yr 1,546 1,546 1,546 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,546 COE year 1 $$/kWh 47 47 44 43 40 40 45 VOE year 1 $$/kWh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.068 0.044 COE Levelized $$/kWh 0.047 0.047 0.044 0.043 0.04 0.04 0.045 VOE Levelized $$/kWh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.088 0.057 IRR Percent 5.12 13.14 6.22 6.46 16.47 19.63 10.03 Exchange rate approx 14.8 EEK/ECU
Spreadsheets for each case are attached. The estimates are indicative and should not be used as a decision basis for actual purchase of hardware.
The base case shows that under present conditions (1997) grid connected wind energy is not competitive with existing electricity supply. Cost of energy (COE) is higher that the value VOE, both in the first year and Levelized over the life time if the tariffs do not increase in real prices.
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Only if tariffs increase to market level costs will wind energy become competitive, the expected developments in wind turbine costs and efficiency are not enough. However, if all three developments are combined (Seen 4) grid connected wind energy will be competitive from the first year, i.e. Seen 4 indicates that 5 to 10 years from now wind energy is expected to be competitive with the existing power supply, and more so if a continued development in rates can be expected (Seen 5).
The demo case indicates, that as expected a grid connected demonstration wind turbine installed in 1998 will not be competitive to begin with, since in year 1 COE is higher than VOE. However, assuming a (real) escalation rate of only 2% p.a. for tariffs will make the economy break even over the entire project life time, since Levelized COE is less than Levelized VOE.
These results assume that all investments have to be amortized by the revenues from the sale of electricity production. In reality, assuming that the demonstration case is partly financed by grant money, it will actually be a profitable undertaking for the IPP or energy enterprise operating the wind turbine from the very first day. Assuming 50 % grant money the demonstration wind turbine will produce electricity at an estimated cost of 0.025 ECU/kWh or 0.37 EEK/kWh, given the current exchange rates.
Perspectives Perspectives are, that a successful grid connected demonstration will be able to pave the way for future large scale deployment of wind energy in Estonia.
Proposed actions It is proposed that a detailed assessment of the feasibility of a grid connected demonstration wind park is carried out by a project group including but not necessarily limited to the present team of consultants, Eesti Energia and Tallinn Technical University.
Eesti Energia should be the Estonian counterpart in order to ensure proper project delivery and provide a sustainable technology carrier. Tallinn Technical University should participate in order to utilize the expertise already established at TTU, and to enhance the institutional capacity building in Estonia.
As part of the feasibility study a suitable site should be identified and implementation models should be developed. As part of this agreements on rights & ownership (energy enterprise or IPP) should be made, and terms & conditions and buy back rates & tariffs should be negotiated with the network entrepreneur.
Deliverables of the feasibility study should include all technical and other data necessary to establish technical specifications in the tender procedure, that will be next phase of activities provided the grid connected demonstration is found feasible.
It is estimated that the feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK. If a grid connected demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of 0.5 mill DKK.
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Previous experience indicates that the wind turbine(s) most probably can be delivered and erected within 3 months after signing of Contract.
It is proposed to undertake the feasibility study in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is furthermore proposed, that if the grid connected demonstration is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the demonstration under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
References
JH wind in Baltic region (paper 1997) Velio Selg & Ruuben Post (paper 1995, visit report) Velio Selg and Amo Valma (paper Tallinn 1996) Mart Motus, secretary of Committee of prices of energy Energy Strategy for Estonia European wind atlas
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 75 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Damp Proj\ESTONIA\Fasc l Report'vReport outline.wpd Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Base Present situation (1997)
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,546 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rating 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,546 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 62,394 ECU Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 10,560 ECU Total price for wind turbine 528,000 ECU Total 11.4% 72,954 ECU Price f.o.b. 800 ECU/kw 480,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.047 ECU/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.041 ECU/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.047 ECU/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.041 ECU/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 5.12 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafo etc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 661,000 ECU 1,102 ECU/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 10,560 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 10,560 ECU
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 0.0% Value of electricity production 0.041 ECU/kWh 62,655 Other income 0.000 ECU/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.041 ECU/kWh 62,655 ECU
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 ECU
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 663,772 Present value of expenses -111,873 Investment -661,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value -109,101 ECU Present Value Quotient -0.17 ECU/ECU
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Seen 1 VOE world marketlevel
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,546 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rating 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,546 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 62,394 $$ Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 10,560 $$ Total price for wind turbine 528,000 ECU Total 11.4% 72,954 $$ Price f.o.b. 800 ECU/kw 480,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.047 SS/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.068 $$/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.047 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.068 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 13.14 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafo etc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 661,000 $$ 1,102 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 10,560 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 10,560 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 0.0% Value of electricity production 0.068 $$/kWh 104,426 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.068 $$/kWh 104,426 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 1,106,287 Present value of expenses -111,873 Investment -661,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 333,414 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.50 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: GenericWTG Seen 2 Reduced WTG costs
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,546 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rati 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,546 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 57,863 $$ Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 9,600 $$ Total price for wind turbine 480,000 ECU Total 11.4% 67,463 $$ Price f.o.b. 720 ECU/kw 432,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.044 $$/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.041 $$/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.044 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.041 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 6.22 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafo etc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 613,000 $$ 1,022 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 9,600 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 9,600 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 0.0% Value of electricity production 0.041 $$/kWh 62,655 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.041 $$/kWh 62,655 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 663,772 Present value of expenses -101,703 Investment -613,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value -50,930 $$ Present Value Quotient -0.08 $$/$$
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Seen 3 IncreasedWTG efficiency
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,700 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rati 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,700 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 62,394 $$ Total nominal rating 600 kW OMScR 2.0% 10,560 $$ Total price for wind turbine 528,000 ECU Total 11.4% 72,954 $$ Price f.o.b. 800 ECU/kw 480,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.043 $$/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.041 $$/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.043 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.041 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 6.46 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafo etc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 661,000 $$ 1,102 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 10,560 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 10,560 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 0.0% Value of electricity production 0.041 $$/kWh 68,921 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.041 $$/kWh 68,921 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 730,149 Present value of expenses -111,873 Investment -661,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value -42,723 $$ Present Value Quotient -0.06 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Seen 4 Seen 1-3 combined
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,700 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rati 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,700 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 57,863 $$ Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 9,600 $$ Total price for wind turbine 480,000 ECU Total 11.4% 67,463 $$ Price f.o.b. 720 ECU/kw 432,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.040 $$/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.068 $$/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.040 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.068 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 16.47 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafoetc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 613,000 $$ 1,022 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 9,600 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 9,600 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 0.0% Value of electricity production 0.068 $$/kWh 114,868 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.068 $$/kWh 114,868 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 1,216,916 Present value of expenses -101,703 Investment -613,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 502,213 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.82 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Deo-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Seen 5 Seen 1-3 combined + VOE escalation
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,700 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rati 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,700 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 57,863 $$ Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 9,600 $$ Total price for wind turbine 480,000 ECU Total 11.4% 67,463 $$ Price f o b. 720 ECU/kw 432,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.040 $$/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.068 SS/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.040 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.088 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 19.63 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafoetc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 613,000 $$ 1,022 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 9,600 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 9,600 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 3.0% Value of electricity production 0.068 $$/kWh 114,868 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.068 $$ZkWh 114,868 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 1,577,326 Present value of expenses -101,703 Investment -613,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 862,624 $$ Present Value Quotient 1.41 $$/$$
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG Demo 1998 estimate+ VOE escalation
# of Wind Turbines 1 1 WTG energy production 1,546 mwh/year Discount Rate 7.0% 1 WTG nominal rati 600 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Annuity factor 10.59 Total wind energy production 1,546 mwh/year Capital costs 9.4% 60,128 Total nominal rating 600 kW OM&R 2.0% 10,080
Total price for wind turbine 504,000 ECU Total 11.4% 70,208 8 8 8 Price f.o.b. 760 ECU/kw 456,000 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 COE year 1 0.045 $$/kwh Spare parts etc. 48,000 Value year 1 0.044 $$/kwh Other equipment 0 COE Levellized 0.045 $$/kwh Transport 13,000 ECU Value Levellized 0.057 $$/kwh Long distance 10,000 IRR 10.03 Percent Local 3,000 Other costs 0 Civil works & Erection 40,000 ECU DKK/ECU 7.40 Foundations etc. 15,000 EEK/DKK 2.00 Access roads 5,000 EEK/ECU 14.80 Labour 10,000 Local assistance 5,000 Other works 5,000 Electrical works 40,000 ECU Cable 15,000 Trafo etc 15,000 Switchboards etc 5,000 Other costs 5,000 Basic costs 40,000 ECU Geotechnical investigations 10,000 Project & supervision 10,000 Training 10,000 Contingencies 10,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 637,000 $$ 1,062 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR o Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 10,080 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 10,080 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 VOE escalation rate 3.0% Value of electricity production 0.044 $$/kWh 67,877 Other income 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.044 $$/kWh 67,877 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 932,056 Present value of expenses -106,788 Investment -637,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 188,269 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.30 $$/$$
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Turbine Economy: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Estonia: Generic WTG
Summaryof results
Base Seen 1 Seen 2 Seen 3 Seen 4 Seen 5 Demo
VOE escalation Percent 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% VOE level $$/kWh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.068 0.044 WTG Cost $$/kW 800 800 720 800 720 720 760 WTG production MWh/yr 1,546 1,546 1,546 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,546
COE year 1 $$/kwh 0.047 0.047 0.044 0.043 0.040 0.040 0.045 Value year 1 $$/kwh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.068 0.044 COE Levellized $$/kwh 0.047 0.047 0.044 0.043 0.040 0.040 0.045 Value Levellized $$/kwh 0.041 0.068 0.041 0.041 0.068 0.088 0.057 IRR Percent 5.12 13.14 6.22 6.46 16.47 19.63 10.03
Damp Associates Inc. Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
F.5 Autonomous wind diesel system in an island
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 83 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\DarapProjVESTONIA\Fase I Report\Report cutiine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands
Fact sheet: Wind energy demonstration Autonomous wind energy systems on Islands
Project opportunity outline The project opportunity deals with demonstration of autonomous wind energy systems technology in the framework of the island electricity supply system. Main objectives are
• provide clean and cost competitive power supply to the selected island(s) • demonstrate the viability of autonomous wind energy applications under Estonian island conditions
It is a primary objective of the demonstration project to supplement existing generating capacity. The existing diesel based generating capacity provides expensive power, and autonomous wind energy systems are considered technically and economically viable by all stakeholders including Eesti Energia.
The wind diesel system should be simple, robust and reliable, based on a moderate size wind turbine in the 150 kW range. The system should be connected to the power supply grid of an island without sea cable connection to the mainland.
The wind diesel system should be owned and operated by the electricity distributor or by an independent power producer (IP?) or Energy Enterprise under agreement with the distributor (Eesti Energia). In any case the active involvement of the local / regional power supply as a technology carrier for autonomous wind power is crucial for the future application in Estonia.
It is proposed to undertake a feasibility study in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is estimated that the feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK. If an autonomous island demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK.
It is furthermore proposed, that if the autonomous wind energy demonstration is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the demonstration under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. Previous experience indicates that the autonomous system most probably can be delivered and installed within 3-6 months after signing of Contract.
Background In the NW islands and the coastal regions of the mainland measured wind speeds are of the order 5.5 - 6.5 m/s in 10 -12 m height, similar to Danish class 1 sites. This corresponds to wind speeds of the order 7 m/s in hub height 30 m of a modem 150 kW wind turbine, which could be expected to produce power at a cost of the order 1 EEkr / kWh. This is higher than the expected COE from a grid connected wind turbine due to the additional equipment
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 84 of 115 C:\WORKDlR\Darup ProjXESTON [A\Fase 1 ReportVReport outiine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands
(controllers etc.) needed to connect to a small diesel grid, but it is competitive with the real cost of electricity from existing diesel power plants.
At present there is practically no experience with autonomous wind energy in Estonia (fact sheet on Prangli). Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessment and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia. This forms a basis for establishing institutional capabilities to support the wind energy development.
Present situation Tariffs for electricity in Estonia today (1997) are on the average 0.60 EEkr / kWh for consumers connected to the main grid, although the detailed picture is more complex (see separate annex), and at the present stage wind energy cannot compete with this general level on the mainland.
These standard rates are also applied in the islands, but the actual Cost of Energy (COE) produced by the existing diesel power plants on islands without sea cable is significantly higher than that. Therefore the income from sales of electricity based on standard rates are far from able to cover the actual COE. For example, on islands such as Prangli and Ruhnu the real COE is of the order 3 EEK /kWh (Vimsi Vald, Island Energy Supply), and the difference between these costs and the income based on the tariff 0.6 EEK/kWh is apparently paid by the Estonian Ministry of Economy through Eesti Energia.
The Estonian Energy Act recently passed parliament with the purpose of regulating the Estonian fuel and energy markets in a privatized structure. Fuel and energy enterprises and entrepreneurs will operate the production, transmission, distribution and handling of fuel and energy under a system of technical and market licenses issued by national bodies.
The Energy Act operates with the concept of network entrepreneurs, that must allow the connection of all users and power producers in the territory covered by the network entrepreneur to connect to the network, under terms & conditions and prices & tariffs to be approved by the relevant national bodies. This constitutes a legal basis for the operation of e.g. wind diesel systems as Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) connected to the grid.
In this privatized scenario wind energy IPP’s (energy enterprises) could be connected to the 0.4 kV or 10 kV distribution network of autonomous islands, presumably operated by the former regional parts of Eesti Energia, including the Island Power Supply, acting as network entrepreneurs.
Although the legal framework for (Wind) Energy Enterprises (IPP’s) is established through the Energy Act all the details that make the concept work (agreements, terms, conditions, prices & tariffs including buy back rates etc) are not established or finalized at present. An autonomous Wind Energy demonstration plant would be a useful vehicle for development of best practices for island based Energy Enterprises (IPP’s).
Prangli: The previous autonomous wind energy project on Prangli is considered formally closed, and no hardware was delivered or installed under the project (see separate fact sheet).
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30, 1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 85 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darop Proj\ESTONIA\Fase I Report\Report outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands
A new 80 kW Perkins diesel generator has been procured out of the Prangli budget of Vimsi Vald community. The new diesel generator is planned to be installed at the existing diesel station. Building permits for a wind turbine generator have been obtained. Locations of wind turbine & diesel generator as well as the transmission cables are shown on the attached map. According to Lembit Tammsar (Vimsi Vald, Prangli Tuulejoud) a demonstration project will have high priority for the community.
A wind energy project in Prangli will also have high priority for the other stakeholders in the Prangli power supply, which is included in Aiju Electric Community (one of the expected future Energy Entrepreneurs) which again is a regional part of Eesti Energia. The difference between the actual high cost of energy and the lower income from the standard tariffs is apparently covered by Eesti Energia off the revenues from the sales of electricity on the mainland. The Ministry of Finance (Energy Department) is the ultimate responsible for financing the power supply to Prangli and other islands without sea cable.
Ruhnu: Several autonomous wind energy projects have been proposed for Ruhnu, including a project proposal to the Danish Energy Agency (Belt Electric proposal).
Ruhnu has strategic importance for Estonia, and Estonian national funds (Ministry of Defense) are available for retrofit of the existing diesel power plant with new diesel generators. According to information from Mr. Jtiri Tuisk, head of the Island Electricity Supply department of Eesti Energia, diesels have been ordered as part of an agreement with Vattenfall of Sweden to supply an autonomous wind energy system for Ruhnu. Apparently no wind energy hardware have been installed or procured at the time of writing (ultimo 1997).
Justification The main justification for an autonomous wind energy demonstration project on an island without sea cable is to provide clean and cost competitive electricity to the island grid while at the same time demonstrating the viability of such technology. Furthermore, a well conducted and successful demonstration can serve as a vehicle to develop the various practices that are necessary for a successful implementation of autonomous wind energy systems, in particular concerning terms, conditions, rates and tariffs.
Therefore Eesti Energia should be involved in the autonomous wind energy demonstration (grid connected wind energy demonstration: see separate fact sheet). This way a technical and organizational framework is provided, that 1) minimizes the risk of failure of the demonstration project and 2) maximizes the possibilities for a successful adaptation of the autonomous wind energy technology into the Estonian island infrastructure. This seems to be in accordance with the intentions in the Energy Act, and Eesti Energia has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development (Letter of Intent attached).
International experience demonstrates the importance of establishing the necessary institutional framework as part of the successful adaptation of the wind energy technology into the Estonian infrastructure. Tallinn Technical University has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development (see separate fact sheet).
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 86 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Danip Proj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 ReportNReport outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands
Technical-economical feasibility Preliminary technical-economical estimates have been made using spreadsheet based models developed by Damp Associates Ltd. for simplified life cycle cost estimates for autonomous wind energy systems.
The technical-economical estimates are based on a simple, robust and reliable wind diesel system (ref.) with a generic 150 kW wind turbine located on a site with an annual average wind speed in hub height of 7 m/s, connected to a diesel power plant with rated capacity 100 kW. The consumer load demand is taken to be 350 MWh/yr with a load duration curve representing a generic island power consumption pattern. Assuming that the wind turbine is retrofitted to an existing diesel plant the necessary investments are of the order:
Investment ECU 260,000 Wind T urbine ECU 145,000 WD equipment ECU 30,000 Civil works incl foundation ECU 30,000 Electrical works ECU 30,000 Other costs incl transport ECU 25000
The technical estimate consists of the calculation of expected annual energy productions by wind turbine and diesel plant, together with estimated fuel consumption and fuel saving compared with diesel only operation. The estimated results are:
Technical performance Fuel used m3/yr 79,400 Fuel saved m3/yr 61,600 Energy Dump MWh/yr 0 Energy Optional MWh/yr 0 Energy Deferrable MWh/yr -240 Primary energy MWh/yr 350
The table shows both the fuel used by the wind diesel system and the fuel saved by the wind turbine as compared with diesel only operation. The deferrable energy is energy produced by the wind turbine at times, where the energy is not required by the consumers. Such energy may be dumped, i.e. not used, but it may also be used to satisfy so-called deferrable load, i.e. loads demands that can be met when the energy is available. Examples of deferrable loads are heating, cooling, pumping etc.
The economic estimate is calculated on the basis that all current expenses caused by the wind turbine installation should be covered by the value of the fuel savings and the deferrable load:
Economical result ECU/yr 4,779 Capital costs ECU/yr -20,863 Running costs ECU/yr -6,125 Fuel saved ECU/yr 21,227 Deferrable power sold ECU/yr 10541
Assuming a 20 year economic life for the system, a number of economic indicators are
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 87 of 115 C:\WORKDlR\Darup ProjXESTONLAXFase 1 ReportNReport outline, wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands calculated by a life cycle cost analysis using a 5% discount rate. The results are:
Economic indicators Discount rate Pet 5.0% NPV quotient Pet 22.9% Internal Rate of Return IRR Pet 7.8%
A spreadsheet printout for this case is attached. The estimates are indicative and should not be used as a decision basis for actual purchaseof hardware.
If the wind turbine is not acting primarily as a fuel saver, but is connected to a larger diesel plant (e.g. by an IPP) primarily to produce primary power, the estimated cost of energy from the wind turbine will be approx 0.92 EEK/kWh as shown below:
Investment ECU 260,000 Wind Turbine ECU 145,000 WD equipment ECU 30,000 Civil works incl foundation ECU 30,000 Electrical works ECU 30,000 Other costs incl transport ECU 25,000
Technical performance Primary energy MWh/yr 435
Total expenses 26,988 Capital costs ECU/yr 20,863 Running costs ECU/yr 6,125
Cost of Energy ECU/kWh 0.062 EEK/kWh 0.918
The results indicate that under present conditions (1997) wind diesel energy systems may be competitive with existing diesel powered autonomous electricity supply, provided the comparison is based on actual costs.
An autonomous demonstration wind energy system installed in 1998 could therefore be economically competitive to begin with, compared with actual costs of energy, assuming that all investments in the wind energy system have to be amortized by the value of the fuel savings and the revenues from the sale of deferrable electricity production.
In reality, assuming that the demonstration case is partly financed by grant money, it will actually most definitely be a profitable undertaking for the Energy Enterprise (IPP) operating the wind turbine from the very first day. Assuming 50 % grant money the autonomous demonstration wind energy system will produce primary electricity at an estimated cost of approx 0.45 EEK/kWh, given the current exchange rates, and it will break even at a fuel cost of less than 1 EEK/ltr.
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 88 of 115 C:\WORKDlR\DarupProj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 ReportXReport outline .wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Autonomous wind energy systems demonstration on islands
Perspectives Perspectives are, that a successful autonomous wind energy system demonstration will be able to pave the way for a future significant contribution of clean and competitive wind energy into the energy supply of Estonian islands, thereby contributing to improved living conditions in the islands..
Proposed actions It is proposed that a detailed assessment of the feasibility of an autonomous demonstration wind energy system is carried out by a project group including but not necessarily limited to the present team of consultants in cooperation with the island administration, Eesti Energia and Tallinn Technical University.
Eesti Energia should be the Estonian counterpart in cooperation with the island administration in order to ensure proper project delivery and provide a sustainable technology carrier. Tallinn Technical University should participate in order to utilize the expertise already established at TTU, and to enhance the institutional capacity building in Estonia.
As part of the feasibility study a suitable island site should be identified, agreements on rights & ownership (energy enterprise or IPP) should be made, and terms & conditions and buy back rates & tariffs should be negotiated with the network entrepreneur.
Deliverables of the feasibility study should include all technical and other data necessary to establish technical specifications in the tender procedure, that will be next phase of activities provided the grid connected demonstration is found feasible.
It is estimated that the feasibility study can be carried out within a time frame of 4 - 6 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK. If an autonomous island demonstration project is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 6-9 months and within a budget of the order 0.5 mill DKK. Previous experience indicates that the autonomous system most probably can be delivered and installed within 3-6 months after signing of Contract.
It is proposed to undertake the feasibility study in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is furthermore proposed, that if the autonomous wind energy system demonstration is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the demonstration under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
References JH wind in Baltic region (paper 1997) Velio Selg & Ruuben Post (paper 1995, visit report) Velio Selg and Amo Valma (paper Tallinn 1996) Mart Motus, secretary of Committee of prices of energy Energy Strategy for Estonia European wind atlas SR&R paper WREC III
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 89 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darop Proj\ESTONIA\Fase I RepoitVReport outline.wpd Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97
Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Base Case Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f.o.b. 900 $$/kw 135,000 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 20,863 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 6,125 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 26,988 $$ Total price for wind turbine 145,000 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 30,000 $$ COE yean 0.138 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.138 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.163 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 7.84 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 20,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 10,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 15,000 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 MWh/yr Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 MWh/yr Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 30,000 $$ Cable 25,000 Trafo etc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 260,000 $$ 1,733 $$/kw 193% RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 6,125 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 6,125 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 0.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable production 0.044 $$/kWh 10,541 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Externalities 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.163 $$/kWh 31,768 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 395,894 Present value of expenses -76,331 Investment -260,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 59,563 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.23 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-9 7 Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Casel: "Value of Energy escalation rate Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Currency Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f o b. 900 $$/kw 135,000 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 20,863 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 6,125 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 26,988 $$ Total price for wind turbine 145,000 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 30,000 $$ COE yearl 0.138 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.138 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.191 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 9.74 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 20,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 10,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 15,000 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 $$/kWh Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 30,000 $$ Cable 25,000 Trafb etc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 260,000 $$ 1,733 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 6,125 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 6,125 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 2.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable productio 0.041 $$/kWh 9,730 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Externalities 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.159 $$/kWh 30,957 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 463,073 Present value of expenses -76,331 Investment -260,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 126,742 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.49 $$/$$
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Case2: Social Value Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Currency Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f.o.b. 900 $$/kw 135,000 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 20,863 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 6,125 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 26,988 $$ Total price for wind turbine 145,000 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 30,000 $$ COE yearl 0.138 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.138 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.169 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 8.42 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 20,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 10,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 15,000 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 $$/kWh Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 30,000 Cable 25,000 Trafo etc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 260,000 $$ 1,733 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 6,125 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 6,125 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 0.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable productio 0.041 $$/kWh 9,730 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Other values 0.010 $$/kWh 1,976 Total annual income 0.169 $$/kWh 32,933 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 410,419 Present value of expenses -76,331 Investment -260,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 74,088 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.28 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Case3: Price f.o.b Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Currency Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f.o.b. 800 $$/kw 120,000 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 19,659 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 5,600 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 25,259 $$ Total price for wind turbine 130,000 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 30,000 $$ COE yearl 0.130 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.130 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.159 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 8.47 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 20,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 10,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 15,000 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 $$/kWh Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 30,000 $$ Cable 25,000 Trafo etc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 245,000 $$ 1,633 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 5,600 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 5,600 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 0.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable productio 0.041 $$/kWh 9,730 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Externalities 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.159 $$/kWh 30,957 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 385,790 Present value of expenses -69,788 Investment -245,000 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 71,001 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.29 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Demo case Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Currency Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f.o.b. 850 $$/kw 127,500 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 20,261 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 5,863 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 26,124 $$ Total price for wind turbine 137,500 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 30,000 $$ COE yean 0.134 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.134 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.191 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 10.23 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 20,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 10,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 15,000 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 $$/kWh Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 30,000 $$ Cable 25,000 Trafoetc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 252,500 $$ 1,683 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 5,863 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 5,863 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 2.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable productio 0.041 $$/kWh 9,730 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Externalities 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.159 $$/kWh 30,957 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant 0 Removal of wind power plant 0 Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 463,073 Present value of expenses -73,060 Investment -252,500 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 137,513 $$ Present Value Quotient 0.54 $$/$$
Darup Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97 Site: Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Grant scenario Currency ECU
Wind Turbines 1 Grant 50.0% Wind turbine production utilized 195 mwh/year Discount Rate 5.0% Nominal rating 150 kW Econ lifetime 20 yr Price f.o.b. 850 $$/kw 127,500 Annuity factor 12.46 Modifications WTGs 0% 0 Capital costs 8.0% 11,134 $$ Spare parts etc. 10,000 OM&R 3.5% 2,931 $$ Other equipment 0 Total 11.5% 14,065 $$ Total price for wind turbine 68,750 $$ Wind Diesel Equipment 15,000 $$ COE year! 0.072 $$/kwh Converters 0 COE Levellized 0.072 $$/kwh Storage 0 VOE Levellized 0.191 $$/kwh Controllers 10,000 IRR 21.89 Percent Switchboards 10,000 Diesel modification 0 Fuel cost 0.34 $$/liter Housing 5,000 Fuel cons DGS 141,000 liter/year Other equipment 5,000 Fuel cons WDS 79,400 liter/year Transport 5,000 $$ Fuel saved 61,600 liter/year Civil works & Erection 10,000 $$ Fuel saved 0.316 liter/kWh Access road 5,000 Fuel saved 43.7% Labour 5,000 Local assistance 5,000 Energy WTG 435.000 MWh/yr Other works 5,000 Energy DGS 155.000 MWh/yr Foundation etc 5,000 $$ Energy STO 0.000 MWh/yr Basic costs 7,500 $$ Energy Dump 0.000 MWh/yr Geotechnical investigations 0 Energy Optional 0.000 MWh/yr Project & supervision 5,000 Energy Deferable -240.000 $$/kWh Training 5,000 Primary energy 350.000 Contingencies 5,000 Electrical works 27,500 $$ Cable 25,000 Trafoetc 5,000
TOTAL ORDINARY PROJECT COSTS 138,750 $$ 925 $$/kw
RUNNING COSTS YEAR 0 Inflation rate 0.0% O&M 2,931 Other costs 0 Total annual expenses 2,931 $$
RUNNING INCOME YEAR 0 Fuel cost inflation rate 2.0% Value of fuel savings 0.109 $$/kWh 21,227 Value of deferrable productio 0.041 $$/kWh 9,730 Value of optional production 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Externalities 0.000 $$/kWh 0 Total annual income 0.159 $$/kWh 30,957 $$
SALVAGE VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT YEAR 20 Salvage value of wind power plant Removal of wind power plant Total Salvage Value 0 $$
PRESENT VALUE OF WIND POWER PLANT Present value of income 463,073 Present value of expenses -36,530 Investment -138,750 Present value of salvage value 0 Total Present Value 287,793 $$ Present Value Quotient 2.07 $$/$$
Damp Associates Inc. Wind Diesel Retrofit: Life Cycle Cost Estimate
05-Dec-97
Site Estonia Generic Wind Diesel System
Summary of results
Currency ECU Base Casel Case2 Cases Demo Grant
VOE escalation Percent 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% WTG Cost $$/kWh 900 900 900 800 850 850 Social value $$/kWh 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000
COE year 1 $$/kwh 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.130 0.134 0.072 COE Levellized $$/kwh 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.130 0.134 0.072 Value Levellized $$/kwh 0.163 0.191 0.169 0.159 0.191 0.191 1RR Percent 7.84 9.74 8.42 8.47 10.23 21.89
Wind diesel retrofit Currency ECU Base Demo Grant
Investment ECU 260,000 252,500 138,750 Wind Turbine ECU 145,000 137,500 68,750 WD equipment ECU 30,000 30,000 15,000 Civil works incl foundation ECU 30,000 30,000 15,000 Electrical works ECU 30,000 30,000 27,500 Other costs incl transport ECU 25,000 25,000 12,500
Technical performance Fuel used m3/yr 79,400 79,400 79,400 Fuel saved m3/yr 61,600 61,600 61,600 Energy Dump MWh/yr 0 0 0 Energy Optional MWh/yr 0 0 0 Energy Deferable MWh/yr -240 -240 -240 Primary energy MWh/yr 350 350 350
Economical result ECU/yr 4,779 4,833 16,892 Capital costs ECU/yr -20,863 -20,261 -11,134 Running costs ECU/yr -6,125 -5,863 -2,931 Fuel saved ECU/yr 21,227 21,227 21,227 Deferrable power sold ECU/yr 10,541 9,730 9,730
Economic indicators Discount rate Pet 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% NPV quotient Pet 22.9% 54.5% 207.4% Internal Rate of Return IRR Pet 7.8% 10.2% 21.9%
Primary energy supply Currency ECU Base Demo Grant
Investment ECU 260,000 252,500 138,750 Wind Turbine ECU 145,000 137,500 68,750 WD equipment ECU 30,000 30,000 15,000 Civil works ind foundation ECU 30,000 30,000 15,000 Electrical works ECU 30,000 30,000 27,500 Other costs ind transport ECU 25,000 25,000 12,500
Technical performance Primary energy MWh/yr 435 435 435
Total expenses 26,988 26,124 14,065 Capital costs ECU/yr 20,863 20,261 11,134 Running costs ECU/yr 6,125 5,863 2,931
Cost of Energy ECU/kWh 0.062 0.060 0.032 EEK/kWh 0.918 0.889 0.479
Damp Associates Inc. Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
G Capacity Building
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 98 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darop ProjVESTONIA'Jase I Repoit\Repoit outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
G.l R&D wind turbine at TTU
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 99 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Daiup Proj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 Report\Repoit outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: R&D wind turbine at Tallinn Technical University
Fact sheet: Capacity building R&D wind turbine at Tallinn Technical University
Project opportunity outline The project opportunity deals with establishing an R&D wind turbine as part of wind energy R&D and capacity building at Tallinn Technical University. Main objectives are
• to act as a vehicle for training of technical staff in OM&R2 • to act as a vehicle for education of students and academic staff in wind energy technology R&D. • to form the basis for adaptation and development of wind energy technology for Estonian markets and manufacturers.
The project opportunity should be seen in the context of a dedicated effort on a national level to explore the potential for large scale deployment of wind energy in Estonia, such as a Wind Energy Knowledge Center at Tallinn Technical University (see separate fact sheet).
The R&D wind turbine is one of the specific activities in relation to the Center, for which support should be applied for from international fundings. It is proposed to consider the possibilities and assess the feasibility of various options for the R&D wind turbine in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is estimated that this assessment can be carried out within a time frame of 1 - 2 months and within a budget of the order 100,000 DKK. The assessment should include the following possibility:
• A standard wind turbine (150 - 200 kW) intended for measurements and familiarization with standard wind turbines. Energy production is a priority, therefore it should be placed on a good wind site off the premises of TTU. The subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 1 - 2 months with a budget of the order 100,000 DKK. The wind turbine itself should be available at a cost of approx 1.35 mill DKK including installation.
It is furthermore proposed, that if the R&D wind turbine is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the purpose under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
Background Available data for the wind conditions in Estonia seem to indicate that wind energy may constitute a viable domestic source of energy. In the NW islands and the coastal regions of the mainland wind measured wind speeds of 5.5 - 6.5 m/s in 10 - 12 m height are similar to Danish class 1 sites. Under such wind conditions modem utility grade wind turbines of typically 600 kW rating will produce power at a cost of 0.7 - 0.8 EEkr / kWh, comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal fired plant. Smaller wind turbines of typically 150 kW rating, connected to diesel driven grids on islands without sea cable, will produce power at costs that are competitive with the cost of electricity from the diesel driven grids.
OM&R - Operation, maintenance & repair
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 100 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Damp Proj\ESTONIA\Fase I Report\Report outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: R&D wind turbine at Tallinn Technical University
At present there is limited practical experience with wind energy in Estonia (fact sheets on Tahkuna & Prangli), and none in the framework of the electricity supply system. Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessment and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia. This forms a basis for establishing institutional capabilities to support the wind energy development, and the present project opportunity intends to support this development.
Present situation The Energy Act has passed (is in the process of passing) parliament with the purpose of regulating the Estonian fuel and energy market in a privatized structure. The regulations in the Energy Act are in compliance with EU regulations, and the Act specifies and/or presumes an institutional framework for the fuel and energy market. Although the legal framework for the fuel and energy market in general are established through the Energy Act, all the details that make the concept work for e.g. wind energy are not established or finalized at present. A wind energy knowledge center would seem to be a valuable support for Estonian planners and decision makers.
The Thermal Engineering Department at the Tallinn Technical University is playing an active role in the promotion and deployment of wind energy in Estonia. The department head, Professor Arvo Ots, is a member of the board of Eesti Energia and participates in energy related government committee work. Senior scientists Velio Selg (The Estonian Mr. wind energy) and Amo Valma are very active in wind energy prospecting, project identification and technical-economical assessments. Through these activities TTU has very well established relations to the Estonian (wind) energy community (cf. refs 5 to 13).
Justification An R&D wind turbine at TTU can only be justified in the context of a dedicated effort on a national level to explore the potential for large scale deployment of wind energy in Estonia. Furthermore, the R&D wind turbine should be an Estonian commitment in the sense that Estonian fundings should be secured financing the day-to-day operation of the wind turbine, including OM&R term staff.
Provided such a national commitment exists an R&D wind turbine at TTU can be justified by a number of issues relating to the introduction and large scale deployment of wind energy.
International experience has shown, that testing and measurements on wind turbines at national test centers is a very important part of building the knowledge and experience necessary for successful deployment of wind energy. Thus it is one of the specific activities mentioned in connection with a prospective wind energy center (see separate fact sheet), in the tradition of Rise in Denmark, ECN in Holland, DEWT in Germany etc.
Access to a wind turbine, that does not have to operate on commercial conditions with energy production and demonstration effect as the (only) priority, is a necessary precondition for establishing the knowledge on the basis of hands-on experience, which again is a precondition for providing realistic advice and recommendations to planners and decision makers. It has also shown to be a de facto precondition for participation in the international exchange of information and R&D results (including participation in international RTD3
RTD- Research & Technical Development
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 101 of 115 C:\WORXDIRXDamp ProjVESTONlA'vFase 1 ReportXReport outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: R&D wind turbine at Tallinn Technical University projects) which is an important contribution to national capacity building.
Thus access to an R&D wind turbine will complement and support the demonstrations of wind energy in transferring and carrying the technology on to large scale deployment in Estonia. This seems to be in accordance with the intentions in the Energy Act, and the Thermal Engineering Department at the Tallinn Technical University has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development.
Perspectives In addition to being an important asset for a prospective national wind energy knowledge center in Estonia, an R&D wind turbine will enhance the possibilities for the Estonian center to develop into a regional wind energy knowledge center for e.g. the Baltic Sea region.
Proposed actions International fundings should be applied for to provide an R&D wind turbine for Tallinn Technical University, to be seen as part of the capacity building in the framework of an Estonian commitment to deployment of wind energy.
It is proposed to consider the possibilities and assess the feasibility of various options for the R&D wind turbine in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. It is estimated that this assessment can be carried out within a time frame of 1-2 months and within a budget of the order 100,000 DKK. Possibilities include:
A standard wind turbine (150 - 200 kW) intended for measurements and familiarization with standard wind turbines. Energy production is one of the priorities, therefore it should be placed on a good wind site off the premises of TTU. Paljassaar Peninsula is one possibility. If this option is found feasible, it is estimated that the subsequent tender procedure could be carried out within a time frame of 1-2 months with a budget of the order 100,000 DKK. The wind turbine itself should be available at a cost of approx 1 mill DKK plus installation, which is typically of the order 30 - 35 % of the wind turbine cost.
It is furthermore proposed, that if the R&D wind turbine is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for the purpose under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
Tallinn Technical University should be the Estonian counterpart in order to ensure proper project delivery. Other stakeholders should probably participate on advisory committee level in order to enhance the institutional capacity building in Estonia.
References
JH wind in Baltic region (paper 1997) Velio Selg & Ruuben Post (paper 1995, visit report) Velio Selg and Amo Valma (paper Tallinn 1996) Mart Motus, secretary of Committee of prices of energy Energy Strategy for Estonia European wind atlas
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 102 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darup ProjVESTONIAYFase 1 Repo ct\Re port outiine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
G.2 Wind Energy knowledge center at TTU
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 103 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Damp Proj\ESTONlA\Fase I ReportUReport oudine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Wind energy center at Tallinn Technical University
Fact sheet: Capacity building Wind Energy Center at Tallinn Technical University
Project opportunity outline The project opportunity should deal with specific activities in an Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center at Tallinn Technical University. Main objectives are
• to support and contribute to the creation and strengthening of the Estonian wind energy technology know-how, which is a necessary part of an institutional framework for large scale utilization of wind energy in Estonia. • specifically to support and contribute to research, development and adaptation of wind energy technology to for future Estonian markets and industry • specifically to support and advise Estonian planners, decision makers and energy enterprises on the development and application of wind energy technology in Estonia.
The project opportunity should be seen in the context of a dedicated effort on a national level to explore the potential for large scale deployment of wind energy in Estonia, such as wind energy demonstration projects) in the framework of Eesti Energia (see separate fact sheets).
An Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center should be an Estonian commitment in the sense that Estonian fundings should be secured for establishing office facilities and financing the day-to-day operation of the Center, including long term staff.
International fundings should be applied for to support specific activities in relation to the Center. Examples of such activities include, but are not limited to:
• Elaboration of a detailed planning and feasibility study for the Center • Establishing specific center facilities such as R&D wind turbine (see separate fact sheet) • Participation in international cooperation within specific wind energy RTD4 activities • Participation in national wind energy related studies, investigations and demonstrations
It is proposed to consider the possibilities and assess the feasibility of various options for the Wind Energy Knowledge Center in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. If wind energy demonstrations in Estonia are decided upon, a first outline planning and feasibility assessment of the Center could be carried out in parallel within a budget of the order 100 - 200,000 DKK.
It is furthermore proposed, that if the Center is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for selected activities under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
RTD- Research & Technical Development
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 104 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Damp Proj\ESTONlA\Fase 1 Report\Report outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Wind energy center at Tallinn Technical University
Background Available data for the wind conditions in Estonia seem to indicate that wind energy may constitute a viable domestic source of energy. In the NW islands and the coastal regions of the mainland wind measured wind speeds of 5.5 - 6.5 m/s in 10 - 12 m height are similar to Danish class 1 sites. Under such wind conditions modem utility grade wind turbines of typically 600 kW rating will produce power at a cost of 0.7 - 0.8 EEkr / kWh, comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal fired plant. Smaller wind turbines of typically 150 kW rating, connected to diesel driven grids on islands without sea cable, will produce power at costs that are competitive with the cost of electricity from the diesel driven grids.
At present there is limited practical experience with wind energy in Estonia (fact sheets on Tahkuna & Prangli), and none in the framework of the electricity supply system. Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessment and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia. This forms a basis for establishing institutional capabilities to support the wind energy development, and the present project opportunity intends to support this development.
Present situation The Energy Act has passed (is in the process of passing) parliament with the purpose of regulating the Estonian fuel and energy market in a privatized structure. The regulations in the Energy Act are in compliance with EU regulations, and the Act specifies and/or presumes an institutional framework for the fuel and energy market. Although the legal framework for the fuel and energy market in general are established through the Energy Act, all the details that make the concept work for e.g. wind energy are not established or finalized at present. A wind energy knowledge center would seem to be a valuable support for Estonian planners and decision makers.
The Thermal Engineering Department at the Tallinn Technical University is playing an active role in the promotion and deployment of wind energy in Estonia. The department head, Professor Arvo Ots, is a member of the Estonian Energy Board and participates in energy related government committee work. Senior scientists Velio Selg (The Estonian Mr. wind energy) and Amo Valma are very active in wind energy prospecting, project identification and technical-economical assessments. Through these activities TTU has very well established relations to the Estonian (wind) energy community (cf refs 5 -13).
Justification An Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center can only be justified in the context of a dedicated effort on a national level to explore the potential for large scale deployment of wind energy in Estonia. Furthermore, an Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center should be an Estonian commitment in the sense that Estonian fundings should be secured for establishing office facilities and financing the day-to-day operation of the Center, including long term staff.
Provided such a national commitment exists an Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center can be justified by a number of issues relating to the introduction and large scale deployment of wind energy.
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 105 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\DarupProj\ESTONIA\Fase l Report\Report outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Wind energy center at Tallinn Technical University
Wind energy is internationally mature and competitive, and a large body of experience exist on how to implement wind energy in the national, regional and local power supply. There is a need, however, for a focal point in Estonia to convey this experience to Estonian conditions and to establish an independent Estonian expertise in the field of wind energy. An Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center at TTU could be that focal point, in the tradition of Rise in Denmark, ECN in Holland, DEWI in Germany etc.
International experience has shown, that a national wind energy knowledge center is an important part of the infrastructure, that is necessary for a successful large scale national deployment of wind energy. Functions include implementation of standards, certifications and best practices, as well as participation in national and international R&D as part of the international exchange of know how. This enables the Knowledge Center to provide qualified advise and recommendations to planners and decision makers.
The Thermal Engineering Department at the Tallinn Technical University has played an active role in the promotion and deployment of wind energy in Estonia for several years, and this forms a qualified basis for establishing an Estonian Wind Energy Knowledge Center at TTU. This way an institutional framework would be provided, that contribute to minimizing the risk of failure of demonstration projects and increases the possibilities for a successful adaptation of the wind energy technology into the Estonian infrastructure. This seems to be in accordance with the intentions in the Energy Act, and the Thermal Engineering Department at the Tallinn Technical University has confirmed its interest in pursuing this development.
Perspectives In addition to playing an important role for the promotion and deployment of wind energy in Estonia a prospective national wind energy knowledge center in Estonia could develop into a regional wind energy knowledge center for e.g. the Baltic Sea region.
Proposed actions International fundings should be applied for to support specific activities in relation to the Center. Examples of such activities include, but are not limited to:
• Elaboration of a detailed planning and feasibility study for the Center • Establishing specific center facilities such as R&D wind turbine (see separate fact sheet) • Participation in international cooperation within specific wind energy RTD5 activities • Participation in national wind energy related studies, investigations and demonstrations
It is proposed to consider the possibilities and assess the feasibility of various options for the Wind Energy Knowledge Center wind turbine in the framework of the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement. If wind energy demonstrations in Estonia are decided upon, a first outline planning and assessment of the Center could be carried out in parallel to the implementation of the demonstrations, within an estimated budget of the order 100 - 200,000 DKK.
RTD- Research & Technical Development
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 106 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\DarupProj\ESTONIA\Fase 1 Report ’vRcport outiine.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Fact sheet: Wind energy center at Tallinn Technical University
It is furthermore proposed, that if the Center is found feasible a certain proportion of grant money is allocated for specific activities under the Danish-Estonian country collaboration agreement.
Tallinn Technical University should be the Estonian counterpart in order to ensure proper project delivery. Other stakeholders should participate in order to enhance the institutional capacity building in Estonia.
References
JH wind in Baltic region (paper 1997) Velio Selg & Ruuben Post (paper 1995, visit report) Velio Selg and Amo Valma (paper Tallinn 1996) Mart Motus, secretary of Committee of prices of energy Energy Strategy for Estonia European wind atlas
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 107 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darup Proj'.ESTONIAVFase I Repoit\Report outline.wpd Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
H Letters of Intent
Darup Associates Ltd. December 30, 1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 108 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\Darup ProjVESTONIAVFase 1 ReportNReport outline.wpd Tallinn, 15 August 1997.
Letter of Intent
Background As part of the Estonian-Danish cooperation in the field of energy it has been decided to carry out Phase 1 of a Project Identification and Feasibility Study: An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, see Annex 1.
The study is funded by the Danish Energy Agency and is carried out by a project group of Danish and Estonian parties including: Dr. Per Lundsager, Mr. Peter Ahm, Dr. Seppo Islander and Mr. Velio Selg.
The study has identified a number of possible actions and projects in the field of wind energy in Estonia including actions and projects, where collaboration with Eesti Energia will be necessary, see Annex 2.
The possibilities of collaboration has been discussed with Eesti Energia and it has been found of common interest to collaborate with regard to further investigation of:
Demonstration of Grid-Connected Wind Farms and Wind Applications on Islands
Eesti Energia sees an interest in investigating the feasibility of demonstrating utility grade wind energy as part of the mainland energy system and that the envisaged demonstration shall be visible.
Eesti Energia also sees an interest in investigating the feasibility of applying wind energy on the Estonian island.
The collaboration will be based on the understanding, that the activities of the Danish parties will be covered by the Danish Energy Agency and that the activities of the Eesti Energia in the form of working hours will be covered by Eesti Energia.
The Danish party will carry out the necessary fact finding and analysis and Eesti Energia will contribute in particular with information on relevant Estonian issues such as technical data on the grid, tariffs and institutional issues.
August 15 1997
Jaak Maarend Technical Director Director Eesti Energia Damp Associates Estonia Denmark
Annex 1. Letter of Interest on An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Ministry of Economy, Tallinn, September 20 1995 Annex 2: Note on Demonstration of wind Energy in Estonia, August 4 1997 Tallinn, 20 September 1995
Draft Letter of Interest
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia
Background
A brief study is being undertaken with the aim of assessing the possibilities for implementing wind energy in EstoniaJn addition to general assessments specific project opportunities are identified. The study is funded as part of a THERMIE action, but any identified or derived project activity must be funded separately from other sources.
The study in Estonia is carried out around a visit of approximately one week by Dr. Per Lundsager, Damp Associates Ltd, Denmark, and Dr. Seppo Islander, SI Credit Ltd, Finland. The visit was arranged by Mr. Velio Selg of Tallinn Technical University.
The schedule (attached) includes meetings in Ministries of Economy and Environment, and during these meetings an interest for follow up was identified as described below.
Investigation and demonstration
There is an interest in implementation of wind energy in regions where wind energy is economically feasible. An investigation of possibilities for implementation projects with Danish funding contribution should be undertaken.
The investigation should be neutral, i.e. not related to specific manufacturers interest, but related to Estonian authorities. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specific project activities. If found feasible, one or more projects should be implemented.
Participants are Danish and Finnish consultants and institutions, Estonian authorities and other relevant Estonian parties.
Possibilities of Danish contribution should be discussed at the upcoming country cooperation negotiations between Denmark and Estonia.
20 September 1995
Per Lundsager Vice Chancellor (Energy) Director Ministry of Economy Damp Associates Ltd. Estonia Denmark Demonstration of Wind Energy in Estonia
1. Background
As part of the Estonian-Danish cooperation in the field of energy it has been decided to carry out Phase 1 of a Project Identification and Feasibility Study: An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia.
It is part of the Estonia energy policy to diversify energy supplies by improving utilisation of indigenous sources of energy and to comply with the goals as to market liberalisation, price/cost transparency and sustainability set up by the European Union.
The oil, petroleum and coal market has been liberalised starting in 1992. Natural gas imported from Russia is operated by Eesti Gaas, a joint stock company with 39 % state holdings, and the electricity market (Eesti Energia) is under liberalisation as well as the oil-shale mining sector (Eesti Polevkivi).
Oil-shale constitutes the predominant domestic source of energy and at present oil-shale provides almost 90 % of Estonia ’s primary energy and almost all electricity is produced in oil-shale fired power plants.
Oil-shale is mined in open casts and mines at about . 10 mill, tons annually. Known commercial reserves are estimated at 1.700 mill tons. The mining process constitutes a constant environmental risk to the local flora/fauna and to the water table. Landscape restoration is carried out in mined out areas and of the mined out area about 90 % is recultivated. Long term environmental impact is however not clear.
Burning of the oil-shale loads the environment with atmospheric emissions (gases & particles) and ash. Up til now 200 mill, tons of ash has been disposed of claiming and area of 2000 HA. Leaks of alkaline water and heavy metals from this ash deposit constitutes a serious environmen tal risk.
Renewable energy applications in the form of peat, firewood and wood waste contribute with about 10 % of the Estonian primary energy. The potential for utilisation of biomass is not known, but it can probably play a much larger role than today in both heating and co-generation.
There is technical potential for hydro power of about 80 MW and this potential is under development, primarily as small-scale hydro power plants.
Solar energy applications have so far received very little attention in Estonia. With increasing energy costs solar hot water systems may constitute a viable niche as found in the Scandinavian countries with comparable climatic conditions.
Estl. Wind 1 PA Energy Aug. 1997 Wind as source of energy in Estonia appears not yet to have been analysed in detail, even though references to an elusive Estonian Wind Atlas can be found, but available data indicates that wind can constitute a viable domestic source of energy, as average wind speeds of about 6 m/s (at 10 m) are reported at many coastal regions of Estonia. With state-of-art wind energy technology this means cost of wind produced electricity at about 0.7-0.8 EEK/kWh - comparable to the cost of electricity from a modem coal-fired power plant.
At present there is little if any practical experience in Estonia wind energy, however the Tallinn Technical University has been active in resource assessments and scenario analysis of wind energy applications in Estonia.
2. Justification
The ongoing liberalisation of the energy sector in Estonia will lead to world market level cost of energy, e g. about 0.9 EEK/kWh making wind energy competitive with new fossil fuelled power plants.
At present Eesti Energia has surplus of generating capacity. However out phasing of generating equipment and rising demands of electricity are forecasted to meet no later than year 2010.
Growing environmental concern, partly coming from domestic politics and partly coming from international politics (as a consequence of Estonia ’s wish to conform to European standards), will without any doubt lead to an increasing interest in renewable energy applications in Estonia.
Wind energy technology is internationally mature and competitive, there is a viable wind energy resource in Estonia and the topography and existing grid extension appear to favour large scale deployment of wind energy applications.
In large scale deployment of wind energy applications electric utilities have by experience crucial roles to play as promoter, technical guarantee, financier, owner, operator, maintainer and as purchaser and distributor of wind electricity.
Same experience has demonstrated, that the utilities involved will benefit from a greener image and the consequent increase in public acceptance and from the new business opportunities involved.
Wind energy technology has a certain lead time as any new energy technology, and a lead time of 10-15 years is estimated in the case of Estonia, depending on the level of ambition of the main stakeholders and the development of cost of electricity..
Estl. Wind 2 PA Energy Aug. 1997 3. Outline Proposal
It is therefore proposed - using the Estonian-Danish cooperation in the field of energy as catalyst - to initiate two wind energy demonstration projects in Estonia, both with Eesti Energia involved if not directly financially then technically/operationally and as purchaser of the wind electricity produced.
The two wind energy demonstration projects proposed includes:
a) a grid-connected wind farm at Tallinn of about 1-2 MW (Paljassaar peninsula)
b) a stand-alone wind/diesel system one an island (Prangli)
3.1 Objective
The main objective of the two wind energy demonstration projects is to:
demonstrate under Estonian conditions the viability of wind energy applications
make the wind energy technology familiar to major future stakeholders (politicians, administration, utilities, IPP’s, industry, NGO’s and the public)
prepare Eesti Energia for new future business opportunities in the field of wind energy
3.2 Methodology
Before wind energy demonstration projects can be implemented a series of preparatory activities has to be carried out in order to ensure a targeted, viable and therefore successful demonstration.
The first activity is what currently is being carried out in the ongoing project with regard to a preliminary “Feasibility and Project Identification Study ”. At this stage it is proposed, that Eesti Energia participate to the extent, that it informally:
assist with information on: national/regional plans concerning energy & the environment; constraints (legal permissions, import duties, taxes, technical constraints) and on local energy/electricity supply, costs, tariffs & conditions, expected development in tariffs, buy back rates for wind electricity etc.
comment on appropriate financial and project delivery mechanisms for wind energy
provides grid related technical data and comment on technology carriers and local institutional capacities
Estl. Wind 3 PA Energy Aug. 1997 and that it formally :
express a willingness to take part in the investigation of the possibilities of introducing wind energy in Estonia without any commitment from the side of Eesti Energia.
A second activity will, given a positive outcome of the present first activity, be to conduct detailed and targeted feasibility studies on concrete wind energy demonstration projects - activities where the active participation of Eesti Energia is regarded as crucial.
The framework for the second and following activities cannot yet be properly described, as they depend on the findings of the present (first) activity, but the role of Eesti Energia will anyway be crucial.
Estl. Wind 4 PA Energy Aug. 1997 Tallinn, 20 September 1995
Letter of Interest
An Implementation Strategy for the Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia
Background
A brief study is being undertaken with the aim of assessing the possibilities for implementing wind energy in Estonia.In addition to general assessments specific project opportunities are identified. The study is funded as part of a THERMEE action, but any identified or derived project activity must be funded separately from other sources.
The study in Estonia is carried out around a visit of approximately one week by Dr. Per Lundsager, Damp .Associates Ltd, Denmark, and Dr. Seppo Islander, SI Credit Ltd, Finland. The visit was arranged by Mr. Velio Selg of Tallinn Technical University.
The schedule (attached) includes meetings in Ministries of Economy and Environment, and during these meetings an interest for follow up was identified as described below.
Investigation and demonstration
There is an interest in implementation of wind energy in regions where wind energy is economically feasible. An investigation of possibilities for implementation projects with Danish funding contribution should be undertaken.
The investigation should be neutral, i.e. not related to specific manufacturers interest, but related to Estonian authorities. The investigation should aim at clarification of conditions and barriers, and on the identification and formulation of specific project activities. If found feasible, one or more projects should be implemented.
Participants are Danish and Finnish consultants and institutions, Estonian authorities and other relevant Estonian parties.
Possibilities of Danish contribution should be discussed at the upcoming country cooperation negotiations between Denmark and Estonia.
20 September 1995
Per Lundsager Got mcclloF C-tV/V Director Ministry of the Environment Damp Associates Ltd. Estonia Denmark Utilization of Wind Energy in Estonia, Phase 1 Danish Energy Agency j.nr. 2136/053-960400 Final Report
I Papers
PreliminaryConditions for Utilization of Wind Energy in the Baltic Region. Velio Selg and Amo Valina, Tallinn Technical University, Tallinn October 1996
Estonian Energy System in Transition. Tonu Lausmaa, Re-En Center Taasen, 1995
Wind Resources in the Baltic Sea. Jorgen Hoj strap et. al., OWEMES 97, April 97
Damp Associates Ltd. December 30,1997 PA Energy Ltd., SI Credit Ltd, Page 115 of 115 C:\WORKDIR\DarupProj\ESTONIA\Fase l ReportVReport outline.wpd (io - 29 to create a scientific basis and know-how centre for co-ordinated • to clear up the possibilities of obtaining in good repair second hand investigation of using wind energy in co-operation with foreign sci and older model new wind turbines. Unfortunately experiences of entific centres; our neighbours show, that the cheapest solution must not always be o provoke and arouse interest of foreign producers for supplying of the best solution; wind turbines and co-operating with local producers in manufac • especially must be investigated the suitability for our conditions of turing the components of wind turbines by foreign licences on the the new, variable frequency, rectificated alternating-direct current spot; generators. Most likely several factories soon start to turn out such o enable for our leading researchers and energy policy makers (also generators by example Enercon E-40 (500 kW) and E-30 (200 kW). members of Parliaments) to participate in international conferences Enercon E-40 can work grid connected with regulated cos Vestas For Baltic region the main problem now is to find investments for V39, T42, Nordtank 500/41) and Germany (Enercon E-40, Tacke construction more wind power plants in our countries. TW 600) at the big islands (Saaremaa, Ftiiuinaa); The following diagram (initial data for the diagram is presented in o investigate which of the wind turbines can be connected with the the table) illustrates the outcome of the feasibility study of the 150 kW grid without big reconstruction, and which and where are the best test wind turbine by research centre planned to create by Tallinn Tech points for connecting; nical University. The calculation example illustrates how sensitive the 30 31 result (total profit/loss) is to changes of the parameters (the rate of in Investme Environment Turnover Turnover tax terest, inflation, electricity price, turnover tax, subsidy, etc.) during tin N° of Price of wind nt subsidy, bonus, tax of wind of electric presupposed economic life. curve turbine, ECU ECU ECU/MWh turbine, % energy, % For to guarantee the success of utilisation of wind energy the pub lic help is needed; first of all the wind turbine and electric energy sole i 100 000 to greed must be exempted from turnover tax and the environmen 75 000 6.6 0 0 (second hand) bonus must be enacted. 2 100 000 75 000 0 0 0 (second Irand) REFERENCES 3 100 000 75 000 0 0 18 (second hand) 1. Ruuben Post, Velio Selg. Wind energy make difficult start in Esto nia. EWE A Special Topic Conference on The Economics of Wind En 4 r6oooo l,«w),tocec 90 000 6.6 0 0 ergy, Helsinki 5-7th September 1995, p. 20-22. 2. Velio Selg, Arno Valma. An Implementation Strategy for the 5 too 000 Utilization of Wind Energy and Other Renewable Energy) in Estonia 90 000 0 18 18 (second hand) TOR for the Project. Tallinn I996. 3. Gunnar Grusell. A model of Calculating the Economy of Wind Power Plants. EWEA Special Topic Conference on The Economics of Wind Energy, Helsinki 5-7th September 1995, p. 52-57. 1 —O* — 2 The total profit/loss of the project Danish 150 kW wind turbines by Tallinn TU 32 Tonu Lausmaa ESTONIAN ENERGY SYSTEM IN TRANSITION Problems, solutions SELF-PORTRAIT OF THE A UTHOR Tonu Lausmaa has graduated from the Tallinn Technical University in 1964 as an electrical engineer. He has a Ph. D. degree in technical cybernetics and a long time research experience in the Institute of Energy Research of the Estonian Academy of Sciences. Founder of the Renew able Energy Center TAASEN and its present director. SUMMARY The energy situation in Estonia at the time being is far from being satisfactory. Almost all the equipment are out of date. In spite of the fact that the energy consumption in 1994 was only 57% of what it was in 1985, the total energy consumption per capita in Estonia is almost the same as in Denmark, though the efficiency of the energy production and consumption lay far behind. The basic producers of electric en ergy, the big thermal power stations in the north-east of Estonia, being run on oil-shale, stand in need of immediate reconstruction and the total efficiency of electricity production is as low as 25%. In addition to that oil-shale is on of the most polluting energy sources. In 1994 the annual emission per capita from stationary sources of all air polluting compounds and SOg was 235 kg and 94 kg respectively. These figures give Estonia one of the leading places in the World. As almost all our buildings erected in the years of Soviet occupation have very poor energy conservation qualities, a big potential of increasing energy consumption efficiency is connected with improving the energy conservation qualities of our dwellings, which will promise a saving of more than 50%. The only solution to maintain the present level of energy production and at the same time meet the greenhouse gas emission obligations is to resort to renewables, having at the moment only a marginal share in Estonian energy budget. A rough estimation for our annual wood waist resource is some 4.2 TWh. Though we have already in use several boilers, converted from oil to wood chip, there is still a long way to go to take advantage of the full potential of our biomass resources. In addition to the wood waist our peat resource is up to 4 TWh and the Estonian wind energy resources are about 5 TWh. Considering the fact that the total consumption of electric and heat energy in Estonia in 1994 was 4.9 TWh and 11.4 TWh respectively, our renewable energy resources are quite significant. It means that following the policy of sustainable development, using local energy resources and paying much attention to energy conservation, Estonia can do without the nuclear energy and the same time catch up our neighboring West European countries in living standard. 2 BASIC FACTS ABOUT ESTONIA Estonia is situated in the north-cast of Europe, on the cast coast of the Baltic Sea Roots the ancestors of contemporary Estonians have settled this site on the shore of the Baltic Sea about 5,000 years ago; History on the 20th of August, 1991 independence of Estonia was restored (on the 24th of February, 1918 the independence of Estonia was proclaimed) Surface area 45,200 km2 Population 1.5 mil. (urban population 70%) ('apital Tallinn (442,700 inhabitants) Air temperature mean annual 4.7°C; in February - 6.6°C; in July +16.3°C Mean annual precipitation 500 to 700 mm Agricultural land 33% Forests 40% of the territory Marches 22% ENERGY SITUATION Energy is one of the key factors in every ecological system. The works of Howard T. Odum (Odum. 1987; Odum, 1988) tell us the important role of energy transformations in ecological systems. One of the most complicated ecological systems is human society. The quality of energy system determines the strength of economy for a country. But energy for an economy is not a goal in itself. The development of a society should not be measured by the amount of energy consumption but the progress should be characterized by the amount of informational services on the lowest possible energy level. People need various kind of services connected with the consumption of energy but not energy as that itself. The starling point of our approach to analyze the energy situation for Estonia is the scope of services Estonian people are entitled to have, or, in other words, the living standard for Estonia. There is no reason to assume that the living standard in Estonia should be less than its counterpart in the West European neighboring countries, having the same climatic conditions and following the path of sustainable development. To take slock of our energy situation and find ways how to reach the needed living standard, we have to compare us with our neighbors. First some basic data about our energy consumption over a long haul is needed. Fig. I shows us the dynamic changes in the energy consumption in Estonia over the last 15 years (Statistical Office of Estonia, 1995). 3 0 gas B liquid fuels ■ firewood D peat CD coal IS oil shale Figure 1. Primary energy supply in Estonia Like most other East European countries, Estonia’s energy supply is almost completely based on fossil fuels. Until recently, Russia and other parts of the former USSR provided all imported energy to Estonia, but this is slowly changing. The share of domestic fuels in energy consump tion is provided by the Fig. 2 and it shows a stable line over the changes of the total energy consumption (Statistical Office of Estonia, 1995). 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Figure 2. Share (in %) of the domestic fuel consumption in Estonia In spite of the fact that the energy consumption has fallen drastically in the last years, being almost only one half of what it was in 1985, there is not much wrong with this big fall in energy consumption, as one might think. The Fig. 1 shows that the energy fall during the transition period from the planned economy to the market economy has reached its bottom value in 1993 with the consumption level only 54% of that in 1985 and in 1994 the Estonian energy consump tion was on its rise again. But it would rather wrong to assume that now all the problems with our energy system are solved and we can live up to the living standard of our western neighbors. Taking the energy consumption per capita in Denmark as a paragon, we see in the Fig. 3 that the total energy consumption per capita in Estonia in the last years is almost the same as in Denmark (Commission of the European Communities, 1992). 4 Estonia Japan United kingdom D1990 01993 Portugal Netherlands Germany France Denmark Belgium MWh/capita Figure 3. Annual energy consumption per capita of various countries So judging by the total energy consumption we are doing as well as the people in Denmark. But in reality the people in Denmark get far more services for that energy than we do for our energy production and consumption efficiency is much lower. Let us take now a closer look at the qualitative picture of the energy situation in Estonia in the transition process from the planned economy to the market economy. The first thing one can ’t but admit is that the energy situation in Estonia at the time being is far from being satisfactory. Technical condition of energy supply systems can generally described as follows: ♦ almost all equipment are out of date of some 30 - 40 years in the age of more than 20 years, supplied by factories of the former Soviet Union; ♦ the equipment in use is has very low efficiency and low level of control and automa tion; ♦ insufficient insulation and unsatisfactory environmental protection. Economic reform represents a unique opportunity for improving energy use in Estonia, since much old and out of data equipment, particularly in industry, can be updated. From the technical point of view there is an enormous and in many cases immediate need for extensive maintenance and refurbishment action throughout the whole energy sector. The basic producers of electric energy, the big thermal power stations in the north-east of Estonia, being run on oil-shale, stand in need of immediate reconstruction and the oil-shale resources are coming to their end. In addition to that oil-shale is on of the most polluting energy sources, both in the mining process and in the use. Since the chimneys of the power plants are relatively high, the radius of the polluted area is considerable. Therefore Estonia is the worst polluter of the region of the Gulf of Finland for in the past years all the attention was paid in satisfying the energy demand without paying much attention to environmental problems. Main air pollution comes from power plants and transport vehicles. The pollution from stationary sources over the last years is given in the Fig. 4 (Estonian Environment Information Centre, 1995). 5 kg total emission S02 emission 100 - Figure 4. Annual emissions from stationary sources per capita These figures, concerning air pollution, give Estonia one of the leading places in the World. The Baltic and Estonian Thermal Power Plants rank among the ten biggest air pollution sources in Europe. Since the whole of Estonia lies within the Baltic Sea catchment area, all pollutants and their transformation products reaching the water-bodies within its territory will inevitably end up in the sea, being carried into the Gulf of Finland. Insufficient sewage treatment has consider ably reduced the value of Estonian beaches as recreational resources. Therefore it is needed to do the utmost to reduce the sea pollution as much as possible. First of all it means the reconstruc tion of our energy system as the main source of pollution. As can be seen in Fig. 4, the pollution has decreased to a considerable amount during the last years giving one the feeling that the energy situation has made a big jump towards an ideal one. But this illusive improvement is, indeed, deceptive. All the decrease in pollution emission is not achieved through some real change in technology but only because the energy consumption has fallen and together with it the pollution as well. The proof of this thesis is given by the Fig. 5 (Estonian Environmental Information Centre, 1995), giving the relative pollution per consumed energy unit. This figure shows clearly that no improvement has been made in making our energy production more environmentally friendly and this is a sign that one should not overlook. Data concerning greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia is difficult to obtain. The only greenhouse gas for which emission has been calculated in Estonia is NOx. Until recently, emissions of C02 , the most significant greenhouse gas, have not been calculated. Thank to a joint project with USA (Punning, 1995), some figures are available, concerning the base year 1990. It gives us opportunity to present the juxtaposition of C02 emissions for various countries (Fig. 6), and unfortunately again, won’t show Estonia in the best light compared with our Western neighbors. ------total emission ------S02 emission 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Figure 5. Emissions from stationary sources 6 Estonia United kingdom Spain Portugal □ 1990 01992 Netherlands Germany France Denmark Belgium t/capita Figure 6. Annual C02 emissions per capita of various countries To increase electricity consumption in Estonia (2.5 MWh/capila in 1993) is not a problem as the electricity production is based on a local fuel resource - oil-shale. Estonia stands out as the only country in the world with an electric power system based almost exclusively on oil shale. But the total efficiency of electricity production by the big thermal power stations in the north-east of Estonia being run on oil-shale is as low as 25% (Statistical Yearbook, 1995), and these power stations are in need of immediate renovation. The solution to increase the efficiency of our electricity production lies in switching over to cogeneration delivering at least 80 % (the upper limit even more than 90 %) overall energy efficiency (Danish Ministry of Energy, 1990). It means that instead of big power stations in north-east of Estonia, in the future we are going to have quite a few medium size thermal power stations scatted around Estonia in the vicinity of cities. But this change would require enormous amount of investment and should be preceded by a very careful modeling and calculation. To minimize the environmental problems, there are plans to reduce the oil-shale production and avoid the development of new oil-shale mines. To carry out these plans, it is needed to introduce solutions to replace the reduction in energy supply either by applying local alternative energy sources and carrying out strict energy saving policy or to face the task of introducing nuclear power in Estonia as an energy sector development scenario (Ots, 1990). Another problem con nected with our electricity production is the low price of our electric energy - 0.034 USD/kWh. It is rather interesting to follow the curve of the electricity price during the last 5 years (Fig. 7). 1995 Figure 7. Domestic electricity prices 7 Bui in spite this more than 100 fold rise, the electricity price is still abnormally low and in many cases makes it profitable to use electricity for space healing of our dwelling houses. The reason why it is possible to keep the electricity price so low is that the price won’t comprise in addition to the cost of direct oil-shale excavating no expenses to the reconstruction of the power plants, the electric lines and transmission stations. One should note that the average heal energy price for space heating our dwelling houses in the year 1993 was 0.017 USD/kWh and for Tallinn this figure was even as high as 0.021 USD/kWh with the domestic electricity price being not more than 0.013 USD/kWh. But something must be totally wrong in an energy system if the delivery of low rank energy (heat) through conversion to high rank energy (electricity) and back into low rank energy again costs less than direct delivery of low rank energy. It is a token that the energy prices in Estonia are not yet real free market prices but sooner reflect some arbitrary agreement between the producers and the Government. One of the ways how to make our energy consumption more effective is to improve the energy conservation qualities of our dwellings, which are far below of the western standard (Oliver, 1992). The housing stock of approximately 190 000 residential buildings provides close to 600 000 dwellings. Multiple-unit apartment buildings provide 440 000 of these dwellings and the re maining 160 000 dwellings are primarily single-family houses. By Western standards, the stock of apartment buildings is young; 70 % were built after 1960. Yet their quality and condition is poor by Western standards due to neglect and lack of improvements over the years. According to the information of Estonian Building Institute, annual energy consumption of our residential buildings is within the limits of 200 - 300 kWh/m2. Taking the building regulations in Sweden as a paragon, the upper limit of energy consumption should not exceed 100 kWh/m2. (Oliver, 1992). It means energy saving more than 50 %. Considering now the fact that the efficiency of our electricity production from our thermal power stations is about 25% and the energy con sumption of our buildings are 2 times more than needed, we get the overall efficiency of our space heating by resistance electricity as low as 13 % (!). This fact is rather characteristic for the real energy situation in Estonia and shows rather clearly that the problem is not the high price of fuels at the world energy market but sooner it is a problem of catching up with the contemporary world standard in energy production efficiency and conservation. It is a rather big problem as almost all our buildings erected in the years of Soviet occupation have very poor energy conser vation qualities because no attention was paid to the problem due to the vast Russian energy resources. Now the situation is totally different and the energy prices are almost the same as at the world market but our salaries are still far behind. Whatever the alternative solutionsmight be to reconstruct our energy production, they fall, for sure, all short if we can ’t solve the problem of improving the energy conservation qualities of our dwellings at cost that is not beyond the fiscal powers for the bulk of population. The most dramatic development in Estonian transport in the last five years has been the rapid rise in the number of private cars. Doubling between 1984 and 1992 to about 270 000, there is now more than one car for every six Estonians (Martinet, 1995). In recent years, most of the increase has come from Western manufactured second hand cars imported from the West and from Russia. The average age of the car stock is 13 years. A troubling trend in the transport system is the decline of in the number of diesel and electric busses and their routes since 1990. But bus travel is still extremely cheap by Western standards, and intercity buses provide the backbone of the intercity public transport. 8 The renewable energy recourses of Estonia are not negligible. 40 % of Estonian territory is covered by forest and therefore biomass as an energy resource for Estonia can ’t be neglected. A rough estimation for our annual wood waist resource is some 4.2 TWh. Though we have already in use several boilers converted from oil to wood chip, there is still a long way to go to take advantage of the full potential of our biomass resources. If to supplement our waste wood re source by growing energy willow on an agricultural territory of 100,000 hectares (1% of our total agricultural area), we would get an additional 6.8 TWh annual heat energy. In addition to the wood waist our peat resource is rather significant as well, being up to 4 TWh. Wind energy resources of the archipelagos together with west and north coast of Estonia arc sufficient to justify economically a large scale wind energy usage. Historically, the application of wind energy is not a new phenomena in Estonia. Wind energy has been in use in Estonia for ages. Estonia is surrounded by water from three quarters and therefore rather open to winds. It is hard to make a right guess when windmills were first taken into usage in Estonia but the first written data about the windmills in Hiiumaa (one of our biggest islands) go back as far as 1572 (Selirand, 1991). HIIUMAA' HARILAIO S » 'Planned wind turbines { - Wind data loggers Wind s$>eed — — 5.0 scaled WArtd Directions 6.0 Figure 8. Long term annual average wind speeds in Estonia (m/sec) As the wind map shows (Fig. 8) (ESSR Hydrometeorological Service Office, 1969), the wind potential at the coast line and in the archipelagos in Estonia is not much less than in Denmark or other European countries being in vanguard in wind energy usage nowadays. Our preliminary estimation (Fig. 9) shows that on the coastal areas and islands of Estonia the windturbines can produce annually at least 5-7 GWh / km2 (Hunt, 1992). 9 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Narva-J. Kunda Tallinn Nalssaar Oamua- Pakrl Vlrtsu PArnu Ruhnu Vlleandl aaar 1 1 for Winter 1 lor Summer | Annual Time Interval 1945-1963 Figure 9. Estonian annual wind energy resource (GWh/km2) To produce 3% (40 GWh) of the electricity used in Estonia in coastal areas and islands annually, it is necessary to install 120 - 160 windturbines with 250 kW rated power. Estonian wind energy resources of the archipelagos, together with the western and northern coast of Estonia are about 5 TWh. In spite the fact that there has been no practical progress in wind energy application over the post Second World War period, the academic interest in wind energy application has never died out, though only a few dedicated people have been involved. Since the beginning of eight ies there has been carried out research work on wind energy applications in the Tallinn Technical University and the Institute of Energy Research of the Estonian Academy of Sciences. As to the technical potential to produce windturbines, its units and the related details in Estonia, it is all there. Only some organization and capital investment is needed to get the wind industry off the ground. Unfortunately, at the moment wind energy application in Estonia is limited to a small number of wind energy fans, having built for themselves turbines from some odd pieces of second hand units, they have managed to lay their hand on. The only exception is a 150 kW demonstration turbine on the lop of the Tahkuna peninsula in Hiiumaa. The turbine comes from (lie Danish company GENVIND under a grant from the Danish Environmental Fund but all ground work in connection with this project will be done by the Estonian partner and covered by the local resources. To trigger off the process of large scale wind energy production in Estonia, it is needed to carry out the needed wind speed measurements for Estonia and make the Estonian Wind Atlas a reality. As the living standard in Estonia is still rather different from these in neighboring western countries, our people can ’t afford to buy ready made contemporary sophis ticated windlurbine production from these countries. Therefore the only way to get the wind energy application off the ground in Estonia is to set up some joint ventures with foreign compa nies, being involved in windlurbine production for a long time already. 10 The site of Estonia is not good enough to use photovoltaic solar energy but as the experience of our neighbors shows, solar panels for domestic hot water can prove quite useful. Unfortunately, to date there is no large scale solar panel usage in Estonia, save few home made panels by enthusiastic people. Considering the fact that the total consumption of electric and heat energy in Estonia in 1994 was 4.9 TWh and 11.4 TWh respectively, our renewable energy resources are quite significant and can theoretically cover both the electric and the heat energy consumption. NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY The Ministry of Economic Affairs is the administrator of all five Estonia’s biggest state owned energy enterprises: ♦ Eesti Energia (99 % of the electricity and 30 % of district healing produced in Estonia) ♦ Eesti Gaas (imported gas supply), ♦ Eesti Polevkivi (oil-shale mining), ♦ Eesti Ktitus (imported liquid fuels and coal), ♦ Tcrmesl (district heating), which arc employing all in all about 27,000 people. Electricity generation and distribution in Estonia is the responsibility of the slate electricity company Eesti Energia. The company owns and operates a number of power stations that gener ate electricity and hot water for district healing. The installed generating capacity of Eesti Energia in MWh at the end of 1993 is given in the following table: These state energy enterprises hold monopolies at the energy sub-markets. Besides that all the key positions in these energy enterprises are occupied by people, having got rather one sided education, focused mainly on fossil fuels, and therefore it is hard to expectthem to show initia tive for promoting radical changes in the energy policy towards untradilional supply of energy. For a long time there have been talks about the privatization of Eesti Energia but no concrete steps have followed to date. Usually consumers do not have a possibility to enter fuel competi tion. In these conditions almost all energy prices, set by the energy enterprises, are result of the negotiations between the state and the energy supplier. Negotiations between suppliers and cus tomers exist only in case of large customers. Government has difficulties in controlling the enterprises, because of the magnitude of the tasks it is facing. The Estonian Parliament has never been seriously involved in energy problems discussion, considered somehow to technical, and energy has always been shaded by some more urgent political issues. There is a lack of effective protection of consumers and an essential discord in the energy conservation process - consumers are interested in savings because of increased energy prices but energy suppliers are not due to their monopolistic position. Many big firms, having a large energy consumption, are not satis fied with the energy policy of Eesti Energia and are planning to produce their own electricity. The prognosis for the cost of this self produced power is about 30% less than produced by Eesti Energia. Some US firms have shown interest in investing into the electric energy production in Estonia. The most important international projects, concerning electric energy production in Estonia, are Finnish - Estonian undersea cable and the Baltic Ring. At present there are more than 40 different levels in energy business in Estonia, covering energy production, consumption, prices and tariffs, foreign investment and environmental protection but the juridical system is still missing and the execution of laws is low. The Estonian Government is committed to develop a full market economy, though the pace of reconstruction in the energy sector is still to be agreed. It is expected that the Government wishes to develop an unsubsidised energy market in which full-cost pricing is used and in which sub sidy, if provided, is to the consumer rather than the producer. At the same time the Government should adopt a cautious policy with respect to diversifying primary energy use into greater reli ance on imported fuels particularly from Russia. Energy supply security is a primary component of Government policy. On the other hand it is clear that as part of an overall move towards the European Union, Estonia is anxious to play its full part in environmental improvement in the Continent and to harmonize its environmental policy with that of European countries. One of the most important of these commitments currently negotiated is that with the Finnish Government concerning the reduction of sulfur emissions. Concerning energy policy, the Government is try ing to do everything in its power to keep the electricity price as low as possible to make Estonian goods and serviced more competitive at the world market. Under the aegis of the Estonian Ministry of Economy a new energy master-plan National Energy Research and Development Programme to the Year 2000 (Energy 2000) was launched, in 1995 (Ministry of Economic Affairs ..., 1995). The programme Energy 2000 defines the most impor tant trends, problems and tasks of R&D work in energy development and is written by the lead ing specialist in the energy field in the Institute of Energy Research and the Power Engineering Institute of Tallinn Technical University. This Programme provides an essential prerequisite for the national development of Estonian power engineering. The successful execution of the Programme would decrease the unit cost for fuel for electricity production and cost of energy generation, transmission and distribution. The main postulates of this document are: ♦ to the year 2025 evidently oil shale fired power plants will prevail in electricity produc tion in Estonia; ♦ in the further future dependent from the investment demand in oil shale power engineer ing the construction of CHP power plants fired by domestic fuels and their blends with imported fuels; ♦ with the depletion of domestic oil shale resources the construction of a nuclear power plant is possible in principle; ♦ the share of energy produced on the basis of renewable energy sources (exc. biomass energy) in the national energy balance will not exceed 1 % to the end of century. Rather characteristic to the Energy 2000 is the fact that nuclear energy and renewable energy are combined together as equal alternative energy choices. But if 10 people from Estonia have spent the year 1995 in USA, studying various aspects of nuclear energy production, up to now there has been not a single grant available for studying renewable energy outside of Estonia. The Estonian Green Movement is fighting hard to advocate for energy saving and renewable energy use. But not being represented in the Parliament, it is very difficult to have a large scale influence in energy policy making. The main activities of the Estonian Green Movement perti- 12 nenl to the Estonian energy policy have been and are at the moment: ♦ to disseminate information about the hazards of nuclear power plants; ♦ enhance public awareness about the fatal consequences of the Climate Change; ♦ advocate for the advantages of CHP power plants instead of conventional fossil fuel power plants; ♦ contribute to the promotion of renewable energy application in Estonia. PERSPECTIVES In (Ots, 1990) the Estonian energy policy is lied down up to the year 2030 by all the prominent Estonian energy specialists and scientists in this field (the total number of authors 60). In that document that can be treated as an advisory document for our governments, a nuclear power station is considered as the best choice for our energy policy replacing the big thermal power stations in North East of Estonia having by the year 2010 run out of oil-shale. The rated power of this station is planned to be some 600 - 700 MW. All other choices are considered far lower from the economic and environmental point of view than the nuclear one and the role of renewable energy is planned to be as negligible as 1 % only of the total energy consumption of 210 TWh for the year of 2030, maintaining the consumption level of 1985. But life has already refuted this prognoses as the total energy consumption in 1994 was only 71.5 TWh and considering the situation in energy saving and efficient use there is no basis to assume that this figure should make a steep rise in the coming years. The development of our sustainable economy should go through efficient use of energy and we have a huge potential in energy saving. As shown above if we carry out strict energy saving policy and apply local alternative energy resources, it is possible to do without introducing nuclear power in Estonia. The problem is not the shortage of energy but how to use it effectively. It is high time to work out energy scenarios for Estonia based not on wild guesses and emotions but on a strict scientific calculations. First of all, we need a local energy map for Estonia consisting all sorts of local renewables and fuels. Loading the data of this map into a proper optimizing mathematical model for energy planning, the Estonian energy consumption could be optimized and various scenarios for the future worked out. But energy consumption is always connected with its impact to the ambient environment. Therefore environmental problems play very significant role of energy application and they should be carefully considered by making decisions about our energy policy. Using nuclear power is not only a problem confined within Estonian boundaries but it is a global problem. Abandoning the use of nuclear power we contribute to decreasing the amount of nuclear waste in (he World. Hints about nuclear energy as a cheap one are not justified. Application of nuclear energy involves high risk to the ambient environment and as a rule a risk can be offset only on account of additional expenses. It makes nuclear energy more expensive than any other kind of energy at the time being. It is not too late to avoid many of the mistakes made by western countries in the near past. Following the policy of sustainable development, using local energy resources and paying much attention to energy conservation, Estonia can do without any nuclear energy and the same time catch up our neighboring West European countries in living standard. 13 REFERENCES Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General for Energy (DG XVII) (1992). Energy in Europe: A view to the future. (K. Ley don, ed.), Brussels, Belgium. Danish Ministry of Energy (1990). Energy 2000 - A plan of action for sustainable development. Copenhagen, Denmark. ESSR Hydrometeorological Service Office (1969). Eesli Kliimaatlas (In English: Estonian Cli mate Atlas), Tallinn. Estonian Environment Information Centre (1995), Estonian Environment 1994. Tallinn. Hunt, J., Lausmaa, T., Selg, V. (1992), The perspectives of Exploiting Wind Energy in Estonia. Theses of the 29th IEA R&D Wind EC Meeting, Kaiser-WiIhem-Koog, Germany, 28 - 29 April, 1992. Lausmaa, T., (1994), Renewable Energy. World Renewable Energy Congress, 11-16 Septem ber, 1994, Reading, UK, pp. 566 - 568. Lausmaa, T., (1995), Country Report: Estonia: Independent NGO Evaluations of National Plans for Climate Change Mitigation, Shades & Characters Ltd. Somerset, England. Martinet, E., Schipper, L., Khrushch, M. (1995), Energy Demand and Efficiency in Estonia. Energy Policy, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 217 - 233. Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Republic of Estonia (1995), National Energy Research and Development Programme to the Year 2000 (Energy 2000), Tallinn (Manuscript copyright). Odum, H. T. ( 1987), Living with Complexity. In: Crafoord Lectures. The Royal Swedish Acad emy of Sciences, Stockholm. Odum, H. T. (1988), Energy, environment and public policy: A guide to the analyses of systems. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 95, UNEP. Olivier, D. (1992). Energy Efficiency and Renewables: Recent Experience on Mainland Europe. Energy Advisory Associates, Herefordshire, England. Punning, J.M., Mandre, M., Ilomets, M., Karindi, A., Martins, A., Roostalu, H. (1995),Estonia: Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Interim Report on Climate Change Country Studies. Selirand, U. (1991). Tuulikute maa (In English: The land of windmills). Eesti Loodus, No. 9/10. Temporary research group on energy (headed by Ots, A) (1990). Eesti Energeetika arengu iildpohimotted aastani 2030 (In English: Estonian Energy Sector Development Scenarios till 2030). Tallinn, Estonia. The Statistical Office of Estonia (1995). Energy Balance 1994. (Hellc Truuts, Ulo Toivere, Maie Kivet, ed.). The Statistical Office of Estonia (1995). Statistical Yearbook 1995. The Publishing Sector of the Statistical Office of Estonia, Tallinn. OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 WIND RESOURCES IN THE BALTIC SEA J0rgen Hdjstrup, E.L.Petersen, L.Landberg, B.Barthelmie Department of Meteorology and Wind Energy Ris0 National Laboratory DK4000 Roskilde, DENMARK Karl Bumke, U.Karger, L.Hasse Ann-Sofi Smedman, Hans Bergstrom Institut fur Meereskunde, University of Kiel Department of Meteorology, Dustembrooker Weg 20 Uppsala University, Box 516 D-24105 Kiel, Germany S-75120 Uppsala, Sweden Gerhard Adrian, F.Fiedler Bengt Tammelin Institut fur Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Climatology Division University of Karlsruhe Finnish Met. Institute Kaiserstr. 12, D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany P.O-Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland ABSTRACT The wind resource of the Baltic Sea has been investigated, using ship-based measurements and a model to establish the geostrophic wind climatology. Regional climatologies are then generated by meso-scale models, and finally local siting can be performed by the WASP-model. Four different ways of modelling the regional climate have been investigated, three mesoscale models and an empirical approach using near coastal ship- based observations. Some of the problems in coastal areas, involving stability and variations in surface roughness are also discussed. The representativeness of short timeseries for the long term average are also being investigated. Results from recent measurements at a Danish offshore site giving the variation of the windresource at distances 0-10km from the coast are presented. KEYWORDS Coastal Sea Areas: Models (Mathematical): Meteorology: Off-Shore Wind Energy 1. INTRODUCTION The ever increasing interests in offshore wind energy is caused by both the scarcity of good land sites, but also by the larger wind energy potential offshore. The available energy potential the EU coastal sea areas were investigated in an earlier JOULE project [1], and the aim of the present project was to extend the investigations to the Baltic Sea, and to provide climate statistics to be used with siting tools for future wind farms in that area, using the methods of the European Wind Atlas [2], supplemented by the use of several mesoscale numerical models for a good description of the regional climatology in the sometimes quite complex coastal areas. Additionally this approach also gives some insight into the variations in the results of the chosen models. Thus providing a set of tools for optimizing siting of turbines in coastal areas, where the distance from the coast and the water depth both should be as small as possible because undersea cabling and foundations are expensive, but in the interest of achieving as much energy as possible, it is desireable to be as far away from the coast as possible (away from the influence of the higher roughness of the land surface), where also the OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 deeper water has some effect in diminishing the surface roughness of the water, further increasing the windspeeds. Aspects of the work and methods used in this JOULEII project is also being reported in a number of previous conference papers, [8-10]. 2. COASTAL COMPLICATIONS The knowledge of the wind climate far from the coast in deep water oceans is well established, here we have a situation with winddriven waves, having had a long time to develop, and the surface roughness of the sea can is tradionally being calculated by simplified equations such as the Chamock relation [3]: where A is the so-called ‘Chamock’-constant. The roughness length is not a constant as it is over land, but it increases significantly with windspeed, but this is only a minor complication. Given the statistics of the geostrophic wind and atmospheric stability, it is now possible to predict the wind energy potential. of thumb' 100- il|mi|Hiiii[n|7iiijiin|i[[i|iiiij -4000 -2000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Fetch (m) Figure 1 Land-to-sea roughness change for offshore wind. Close to the surface downstream the flow is in equilibrium with the new surface roughness, above a certain height the flow will still be in equilibrium with the upstream roughness, and in a quite deep layer in between the two layers, the transition layer. At near-coastal sites very often the turbines will be immersed in the transition layer. Near the coast at distances and waterdepths where it would be practical to erect windturbines, things get a lot more complicated: • Internal boundary layers, caused by roughness and thermal differences between land and water (fig.l). For offshore winds the windturbine rotors can be above the shallow equilibrium layer developing offshore close to the sea surface, but still deeply immersed in the layer that has been disturbed by the new surface. OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 0.1 ' ' ' * ------Zq .wave smooth ...... z0.wave transition ...... Zq .wave rough ------'Normol' value near coast (=0.018) o N CT> 0.01 .c < VINDEftY 10—20km fetch (240-330°) r i i i i i—r- 0.01 0.1 U./Cr Figure 2 Measured values of the Charnock ‘constant ’ from the RASEX experiment (Vindeby site). The parameter on the abscissa is the inverse wave age, i.e. for constant fetch, the windspeed increases from left to right. Cp is the pahse speed of the dominating wave component. • The sea surface roughness increases, i.e. in eq. 1 ,A is no longer a constant but varies vey much as a function of wave-age (see fig.2). This phenomenon is still the subject of some discussions in the oceanographic community. • The wind climate will be influenced by secondary circulations (sea breezes), and large scale terrain features on land (cliffs, mountains). • The Baltic Sea has quite cold water for most of the year, and consequently the atmospheric stability will be unusually stable, leading to difficulties when trying to employ the ‘normal’ relations for determination of windspeed variations with height, including the phenomenon called ‘low-level’ jet, where the windprofile shows a maximum at a moderate height. • Another effect of the stability is a quite large influence of the growth rate of the internal boundary layers, here illustrated in fig.3 showing typical growth rates for neutral, stable and unstable atmospheric conditions. This means that in stable conditions the influence of the higher land roughness extends much further away from the coast than it does in neutral orunstableconditions. Since obviously, it will not be practical to make measurements for a long time every time we need a new site, some numerical tools that are capable of describing correctly this situation are needed. OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 — Stable, L = 10m — Neutral — Unstable, L = —10m 1000 1500 2000 2! Downstream distance [m] Figure 3 Calculated internal boundary layer heights for different stabilities. Note the much slower growth rate in stable conditions and the higher growth rate in unstable condition. 3. METHOD The methodology in this report is a refinement of the original windatlas methods, where the geostrophic wind field was used for a description of the overall climatology, and WAsP was used for the detailed siting using the geostrophic wind field as input. In order to be able to better describe the influence of large scale terrain features on the wind climate, we use the geostrophic wind as input to meso-scale models which then are being run at a large number of characteristic conditions, eventually averaged together into climatological values, where the effects of the large scale terrain features are included. This generalized climatology from the mesoscale models is then used as input to WAsP to compute the local windresource. We have for this project chosen to test several meso-scale models with each their own merits and problems, which of course also makes the question of drawing conclusions much more complicated, meaning that the final result is not the outcome of a single one of the models but rather a synthezisation of all the results available. The method can simplified be described in three steps: • Compute geostrophic wind statistics by using ship observations combined with a numerical model. • Geostrophic wind statistics is used to generate regional climatologies by combining a large number of runs from meso-scale models, i.e. runs for different winddirection sectors, windspeed intervals and stabilities. • Use the regional climatologies as input to local-scale siting models giving the wind energy potential at the selected site. 4. THE MODELS We have been employing four different models to obtain the results for the regional windclimate: • The KAMM-model of the University of Karlsruhe [7]. • The University of Uppsala mesoscala model. OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 • The HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) as employed by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. • An empirical model by University of Kiel, built upon analysis of the near- coastal ship observations. For the siting model we will use WASP, taking as input the regional climate statistics from the mesoscale models, with possible non-standard values for some of its adjustable parameters. The HIRLAM model showed quite discouraging results at an early stage, with quite poor performance for windspeed calculations, but the other three models provide better results. The University of Uppsala model has been plagued with a number of errors, but was modified in the later stages of the project. 5. MODEL FEATURES 5.1 University of Kiel model This approach is based on a large number of ship based observations of windspeed, pressure and temperature, which are then fed into a model capable of generating a geostrophic wind field from the data taken far from shore, and using the near coastal data to quantify the coastal influence. The geostrophic wind field which is generated comes out with values that are too small compared with other studies, but the variation across the Baltic looks plausible. The atmospheric stability resulting from the analysis was surprisingly slightly unstable on the average. The coastal data showing the slow speedup of wind when leaving the coast is being supported by the data from the Vindeby windfarm that also show a speedup of the wind at a slower rate than expected (figs. 4-6). Distance to coast [km] Figure 4 Coefficient q for ratio of analysed geostrophic and observed surface windspeeds for offshore winddirections in the Baltic Sea (average over whole area). OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 Distance to coast [km] Figure 5 As figure 4, but for onshore winddirections. Measured meas. 700 y-m- 1 III1 |T'l I II I I I I | I I I I I I I TI 'I TfT'l I I l I iiii|iiiirrr ) 4000 6000 8000 11 12000 Distance from coast [m] Figure 6 Energy density plotted as a function of distance from the coast for the Vindeby site. The squares connected with the full line are the measurements, the dashed line is a WASP prediction using the shoreline data as reference. 5.2 The KAMM model The results from the KAMM model form the basis of the plot in fig. 7, with the following corrections: Since the geostrophic wind generated from the Kiel model was used as input, the original results were too low, and furthermore the model as it was used could not accept a geostrophic wind field but uses the distribution of geostrophic winds at one point, so the outputs were adjusted for the gradient in geostrophic wind resulting from the analysis of the Kiel measurements as well as for the too low value of geostrophic windspeed. 5.3 The MIUU model OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 This model used a different data set as input both regarding geostrophic wind and stability. The results were available only late in the project because problems in the computer code had to be corrected several times and the very time consuming model runs had to be repeated. The model output shows much different results than shown in fig.7. In the northern part of the Baltic Sea their results are dominated by a frequently occurring phenomenon called a low-level jet that occurs in situations where relatively warm air is being advected over a cold sea, i.e. very stable conditions. This phenomenon has been observed in field experiments (as described in the report) in the Baltic Sea by the MIUTJ-group, and is also supported by theoretical considerations. We chose to neglect the findings in the final result for the following reasons: the previous modelling problems as mentioned above, late arrival of the results and also because although the low-level jet occurs in the area, it does not seem quite plausible that a phenomenon of such narrow vertical extent should have such a big climatic effect at the height in question (50m) that it entirely dominates the results. Fig. 8 shows a comparison between the analysed ship based measurements and the MlUU-model calculations for 10m height from which we see that the MlUU-model gives windspeeds 0.5-0.8 m/s higher than the corrected ship measurements in the northern part of the area, and windspeeds 0.5m/s lower than the ship measurements in the southern part of the area. 6800 — 6600 — ^ 6400 — 6200 6000 — Km Figure 7 Contour plots of wind resource at 50m in the Baltic Sea. The shading indicates (from light to dark) 450-550, 550-600, 600-650, 650-700W/m2 and an area exteding from southern part of Sweden to south of the island of Bornholm with energy densities above 700 W/m2 (shading not clear in the printout). 5.4 The HIRLAM model The HIRLAM model is a standard meteorological forecasting model, including much simpler schemes for the physics of the near surface flow, and the resulting windspeeds were too small compared with relevant OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 measurements. 6. RESULTS 6.1 Overall wind resource The main results of this study are illustrated by the wind resource maps, i.e. see the map in fig.7 showing the energy density in W/m2 at 50m for the Baltic Sea area, assuming a uniform surface roughness value of 0.0002m (open sea roughness). The main feature is a fairly small gradient with decreasing energy density towards NE. The difference between the highest values between the southern part of Sweden and northern Germany and the lowest values in the eastern part of the Bay of Finland amounts to about 30% (from more than 700 W/m2 to 450 W/m2), comparable to coastal sites in Denmark. XLnd speed In.'si at 10 m. 600- 500- ’-0.5' 100- Bist 3nc±_knx_ Figure 8 The difference between MIUU model results and ship based measurements (10m height). In the northern part of the area, the MIUU model gives 0.5-0.8 m/s higher values than the measurements. In the southern part, the MIUU model results are 0.5 m/s lower than the measurements. 6.2 Coastal influence A coast nearby an offshore site obviously influences the potential energy production, because the flow coming from land has been slowed down by the higher roughness of the land surface. Additionally the sea OWEMES97, La Maddalena April 1997 surface roughness in near-coastal areas will be higher than for the open sea because of changing wave structure and decreasing water depth creating more friction between the waves and the sea bottom. Their combined effects result in a somewhat smaller energy potential close to the coast. It appears that the windspeed keeps increasing at much longer distances from the coast than previously expected. The classical roughness change models will show a fairly rapid increase with distance from the coast, with almost full adjustment at a distance of about 5 km, whereas our study showed a much slower adjustment over a distance of 20-30 km (see figs. 3-6). This adjustment will depend on the local climatology and terrain, but as a rough estimate, the energy output for a windturbine at the coastline will be some 40% less than the energy output of a turbine situated far from the coast. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This project has been supported by the EU (JOU2-CT93-0325 and JOR3CT950089), the Danish Research Council (STVF-16-5404-1) and Office of Naval Research (N00014-93-1-0360). REFERENCES [1] Matthies, H.G., A.D.Garrad, B.M.Adams, M.Scherweit, T.Siebers: Offshore Wind Energy Potential in the EC. Final report on JOULE I (JOUR 0072), 1993. Germanischer Lloyd and Garrad Hassan and Partners. [2] Troen, I. and E.L.Petersen: European Wind Atlas, 1989. Published for the CEC, DG for Science Research and Development, Brussels, Belgium. [3] Chamock, H., 1955: Wind stress on a water surface. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 81, 639-640. [4] Ennenga, U., 1985: Objekdve Analyse aktueller Wind- und Druckfelder tiber dem Nordatlantik, Berichte aus dem Institut fur Meereskunde Kiel, 142,103p. [5] Bumke, K. And L.Hasse, 1989: An Analysis Scheme for Determination of true surface winds at sea from ship synoptic wind and pressure observations. Boundary Layer Meteorol., 47,295-308. [6] Luthardt, H. and L.Hasse, 1981: On the relationship between surface and geostrophic wind in the region of the German Bight, Contributions to Atmospheric Physics, 54, 222-237 [7] Adrian, G. And F.Fiedler, 1991: Simulation of unstationary wind and temperature fields over complex terrain and comparison with observations. Beitr. Phys. Atmosph., 64, 27-48 [8] H0jstrap, J. and B.Tammelin: Wind ressources in complex coastal terrain. EUWEC-conference, Goteborg, Sweden 1996. [9] Karger, U. and K.Bumke: Coastal influence on the surface wind at the Baltic Sea. EUWEC-conference, Goteborg, Sweden 1996. [10] Barthelmie, B, N.G.Mortensen, L.Landberg and J.Hojstrup: Application of the WASP model to determine the wind resource in non-neutral conditions in coastal areas. EUWEC-conference, Goteborg, Sweden 1996.