New Slovenian Government

NEW SLOVENIAN GOVERNMENT

TJASA FEHER

AJRC-Analyses 2014A00

AJRC-Analyses Series of the Antall József Knowledge Centre

Publisher: Antall József Knowledge Centre Publisher-in-Chief: Péter Antall Managing editor: Ádám Éva Editorial office: Antall József Knowledge Centre H-1093 Budapest, Közraktár utca 4-6.

Contact: H-1093 Budapest, Közraktár u. 4-6. Tel: +36 1 482 7703 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ajrcbudapest.org / www.ajtk.hu

NEW SLOVENIAN GOVERNMENT

TJAŠA FEHER1

On the 18 September, the new cabinet of Prime Minister Miro Cerar was appointed. This was followed by the hearings of his ministerial candidates in front of the relevant parliamentary committees in the first weeks of September and a previous agreement by the Party of Miro Cerar (SMC), the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) and the Social Democrats (SD), to establish a majority government with 52 out of parliament’s 90 seats in the National Assembly (Državni zbor).

The Party of Miro Cerar (SMC) won the elections with 34.5% (36 seats). Even though the SMC was established six weeks before the elections, their victory came as a no surprise. The election campaign of the party was based on the high level confidence in Cerar and the return of moral behaviour into politics. Cerar has an impeccable reputation as an expert of law, particularly on constitutional matters, had been involved in drafting the new Slovenian constitution at the time of independence and was a regular guest on television offering expert commentary and he doesn’t have a political past (he is also known as son of one of the greatest athletes in Slovenian history and a former minister of justice). The new party mainly consists of academics (41% of SMC’s members on the electoral list had Masters or Doctorate of Science), business people and public personalities – new people unburdened by past stories. During their campaign they said they believe in combining the elements of left and right parties, but their first priority is to lead Slovenia out of the crisis and establish a higher political and juridical culture. SMC owes its victory not only to Cerar’s persona, but to the continuing disillusionment of citizens with the traditional parties and political life (e.g. the centre-left Positive Slovenia which won the election in 2011 with 25% support level, this time got less than 5% of the votes).

The Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) with its imprisoned leader and former PM Janez Janša came second with 20.7% (21 seats). Janša was found guilty on 5 June 2014 of taking a bribe of around €900.000, in the procurement of 135 armoured vehicles by the Defence Ministry in 2006 (when he was PM) from the Finnish arms manufacturer Patria, and given a two-year prison term, which he began to serve on 20 June.

1 Tjaša Feher is a former intern of The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and a project assistant and research fellow at the Antall József Knowledge Centre. She has completed this paper during her internship at PISM.

Karel Erjavec’s (Foreign Minister since 2012) Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) obtained 10.2% (10 seats) and four other parties (SD, ZL, NSi, ZAB) obtained enough votes to get seats in the parliament.

On 5 May 2014, then the Prime Minister, Alenka Bratušek resigned after she lost the leadership battle within the Positive Slovenia to the party’s former leader Zoran Janković (mayor of Ljubljana). After weeks with no nominee for a prime minister, President Borut Pahor dissolved the Parliament and announced there would be a “snap election” on 13 July 2014. Although the turnout reached 51%, it was the first time in a Slovenian parliamentary election when it dropped below 60%.

Challenges for the government Compared to Bratušek’s cabinet, the ministerial line-up has been expanded by two ministries and one minister without portfolio. The new cabinet features record seven women ministers. Four ministers from the minor coalition parties (DeSUS and SD) kept their posts, including Karel Erjavec as Minister of Foreign Affairs. The 16 ministerial positions are divided as follows: SMC got 9 (interior, justice, finance, infrastructure, education, economic development, public administration, health and innovation/strategic projects), DeSUS 4 (foreign affairs, environment, culture and Slovenians abroad) and SD 3 (defence; agriculture/forestry/food and labour/family/social affairs). The government consists of many respected academics and business people as well as public personalities and former civil society members – e.g. the new Minister of Finance Dušan Mramor is a respected expert on finances, with international experience (visiting professor at CEU and Indiana University; World Bank consultant; vice president of the European Finance Association, etc.); the new Minister of Justice Goran Klemenčič is a lawyer committed to fight corruption (between 2010 and 2014 he headed the Slovenian Commission for the Prevention of Corruption); Violeta Bulc the Minister responsible for Development, Strategic Projects and Cohesion is a former entrepreneur and advisor with years of experience in the Silicon Valley, etc.

The new government will have to face numerous challenges, mostly of social and economic nature, resulting from the poor condition of public finances and economic stagnation. The immediate priority of the new government is to find a way to mitigate the increasing public debt, which has immensely risen over the past year from 54.8% of GDP (Q1 2013) to 78.7% of GDP (Q2 2014); amending the 2015 budget in a way that it meets the European Criteria, required by the Stability and Growth Pact, that the country’s GDP will be reduced below 3% of GDP next year. The budget deficit had already approached the target value for the entire 2014 after the first seven months.

In addition, the new cabinet will have to finalise the process of putting the state-dominated banking sector back on its feet after the previous government established a so-called “bad

bank”, which has taken on more than 3 billion euros of unpaid loans, thus lifting the burden off the banking system. The PM has already announced the government would continue with the privatisation of 15 state owned companies, three of which (Žito, Aerodrom Ljubljana and Helios) have already been sold, but however they will try to keep some strategic business sectors under state control (e.g. Telekom Slovenije one of the largest telecommunication enterprise systems in Slovenia).

Unlike the issues inside the country which require strategic actions, the course of the foreign policy will be continued. As a region in Slovenia’s immediate neighbourhood, Western Balkans will remain a key area outside the Union, with the aim to support and facilitate the EU integration of the countries in the region. Therefore – among other things – Slovenia will continue its involvement in EULEX and KFOR missions. The government will also continue working on keeping good political and economic relations with its direct neighbours. Italy and Hungary are one of the most important export/import partners of Slovenia. Especially for the landlocked Hungary the Slovenian Luka Koper (Port of Koper) is of a strategic importance (earlier this year the two Ministers of Foreign Affairs Navracsics and Erjavec agreed on the modernisation of the Pragersko-Hodoš railway, which could facilitate easier transportation of Hungarian cargo to Koper). In July Navracsics also announced his plans to help Slovenia and Croatia to join the Visegrad Group. There is also a possibility of Slovenia’s participation in the project of gas terminal on the Croatian island of Krk, which could play an important role in the EU energy policy in this part of Europe (the chances of Croatia and Slovenia to secure financing from the EU funds with a joint effort are good – the European Commission has already expressed readiness for financing of the project).

Slovenia’s position on sanctions against Russia, crisis in Ukraine The Foreign Ministry of Slovenia has condemned, in the strongest terms, the violence in Ukraine and they stated that Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be preserved and the annexing the Republic of Crimea is a violation of the basic international legal principles. However Foreign Minister Erjavec has been arguing against sanctions from the start, and advocated a dialogue between EU and Russia, as well as further negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, emphasising that Slovenia could be a mediator, since it has good relations with Russia (note that Slovenia exports around €30 million in agricultural and food products to Russia every year). In July President Pahor discussed the situation in Ukraine in separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US General Philip Mark Breedlove, NATO’s supreme commander in Europe; However in September Slovenia welcomed the ratification of EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.