The Evolving Agricultural Landscape: Enabling a Plant Based Future
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The Evolving Agricultural Landscape: Enabling a Plant Based Future David Grotto, MS, RDN, LDN, FAND Kellogg US Wellbeing Affairs Manager Sponsors Plant-based Serving plant-based for over protein for over A CENTURY FORTY YEARS 2 DISCLOSURES 1. I amDavid the Grotto, Kellogg MS, RDN, LDN, US Kellogg Wellbeing US Wellbeing Affairs Manager, SpecialtyManager Channels 2. I am a card-carrying omnivore… 3 OBJECTIVES Examine the evolving terrain of protein and how various options can help nourish an increasingly populated world Describe the consumers who are driving the plant based protein category Debunk concerns about the nutritional adequacy of plant based diets Incorporate on-trend proteins on menus to satisfy today’s vegans, vegetarians and flexitarians 4 FEEDING THE WORLD 5 THE LANDSCAPE IS BECOMING MORE CROWDED Projected world population of 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 EVOLVING LANDSCAPE AND POPULATION DEMANDS Although the growth rate is declining, the reality is we will have 11.2 billion mouths to feed by 2100. https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world- population-prospects-2017.html 6 US HAS THE 3RD LARGEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD 7 EVOLVING LANDSCAPE AND POPULATION DEMANDS HOW DO WE FEED 10 BILLION PEOPLE? 8 Source: WRI 2018 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (KG) 2 1 1. Source: IPCC (2014); based on global emissions from 2010. Details about the sources included in these estimates can be found in the Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental 2 9 Panel on Climate Change. CALORIES OF FEED TO = 1000 KCAL OF FOOD Raising animals to feed humans requires growing a much larger amount of primary vegetable material than if humans consume the vegetable material directly rather than raising and consuming the meat. 36,200 11,300 8,800 6,300 5,900 Average calories of feed required to produce 1,000 calories of food 10 Source: Food Navigator 2018 NON-ANIMAL PROTEINS BEING EXPLORED IN AND OUT OF MEAT PRODUCTS Legumes Nuts Seeds Grains Fungi Other Chickpea Almond Canola Corn Chlorella Algae Faba Brazilnut Chia Flax Koji Cranberry Lentil Cashew Pumpkin Hemp Mycelium Duckweed Lupin Coconut Sacha Inchi Oats Moringa Mung Sesame Quinoa Nettles Pea Sunflower Rice Pomegranate Soy Wheat Potato Air! 11 Defining Plant-Based VEGETARIAN CONSUMER Currently, there is no FDA regulatory definition of “vegan” ,“vegetarian” or “plant-based”. Lacto = Dairy Ovo = Eggs Pesco = Fish Five percent of Americans identify as vegetarian, a rate that has remained unchanged since the previous survey in 2012. 13 Gallup, July 1-11, 2018 n=1,033 adults, aged 18 and older VEGAN CONSUMER Just the plants and nothing but the plants… • Grains • Vegetables • Fungi • Fruits • Beans • Nuts • Soy products 14 “PLANT-BASED”: MOST ARE FLEXITARIAN AND REDUCE-ITARIANS Flexitarianism is the act of consciously cutting back on meat but still enjoying a serving of animal protein when the timing is right. While flexitarians primarily eat plants with the occasional inclusion of meat, eggs, and dairy, reduce-itarians mindfully and gradually reduce their consumption of animal products with respect to their own diet. Did you know at least 1/3 of the people In the U.S. can be described as Flexitarian? 15 PLANT-BASED FOODS DEFINED PBFA Certification The most important thing to understand is that for PBFA, “plant-based” means 100% free from animal ingredients. We make no exceptions to this rule. While Certified Plant Based provides the same animal-ingredient free assurance as the vegan label, ours reaches more consumers. In the U.S. 39 percent of consumers are trying to eat more plant-based foods while only 3 percent are vegan. Vegan is a specific lifestyle and label, while plant-based can include a wider array of people who enjoy Meatless Mondays or are flexitarian. 16 https://plantbasedfoods.org/how-is-pbfas-certified-plant-based-seal-different-from- vegan/ THE PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVE MARKET IS GROWING 17% Plant-based alternatives are a $3.7 billion market growing 17%, but still less than 1% of total US food sales $2.0 B 40% 35% $1.6 B 30% $1.2 B 25% 20% Sales $0.8 B 15% $ % Chg YA Chg $ % 10% $0.4 B 5% $0.0 B 0% Tofu and Plant-based Plant-based Other Plant- Plant-based Plant-based Tempeh Meat Milk based Dairy Meals Eggs and Mayo Sales $ % Chg YA Source: Nielsen custom defined data set, xAOC + WFM, 52 weeks ending 8/11/18. 17 54% OF CONSUMERS WANT TO REDUCE MEAT AND INCREASE PLANT PROTEINS WHAT PEOPLE EXCLUDE WHAT PEOPLE WANT MORE OF IN A FLEXITARIAN DIET among self-identified flexitarians Red meat 69% Want to Eat MORE Poultry 24% Vegetable proteins 49% (beans, nuts, etc.) Pork/Ham 60% Fish 39% Dairy 28% Poultry 25% Fish 22% Shellfish 26% Dairy beverage 22% Other seafood 27% Dairy products 20% Analog proteins 15% (tofu, tempeh, seitan) Red meat (beef/lamb) 14% Pork/Ham 12% 18 Drivers of Consumer Behavior 19 VARIETY, HEALTH, PLANET… Millennials and Gen Z say sustainability, ethical, social and environmental impact, is a shopping priority1 Nutritional: Personal Health Planet Health • Lower Saturated Fat • People are interested The extent of the improvement • Lower Cholesterol in losing weight, varies widely, but overall, • Lower Calories lowering their environmental impact can be cholesterol and lessened by nearly 40% by improving their overall switching from meat- health.2 containing meals to veggie ones.3 20 DRIVER: VARIETY MOTIVATIONS FOR LIMITING ANIMAL PROTEIN I want variety in my meals (to have foods other than meat) 36% Non-animal proteins help me keep a healthier lifestyle (lower calories and saturated fat than meat, etc.) 28% To help me/my kids eat more vegetables and plant-based protein 22% To support animal welfare / prevent animal cruelty 19% Non-animal proteins are safer than meat (no antibiotics, hormones, diseases, etc.) 17% To be more environmentally-friendly (e.g. CO2 footprint, water and land usage) 16% Non-animal proteins are lighter than meat (won’t weigh me down) 13% To help reduce food waste 12% Non-animal proteins have lower prices compared to meat 10% To help satisfy both the vegetarians and the meat eaters in my household 9% Non-animal proteins provide the same amount of protein as meat 9% I don’t like the taste / texture 9% Non-animal proteins have more consistent prices compared to meat 6% Religious reasons (Kosher, Halal, etc.) 4% 21 IFMA Consumer Planning Program, Plant-Based Entry, 2017-18. DRIVER: HEALTH Why do you limit or avoid meat consumption? It's just generally better for me 37% More energy 39% To eat more vegetables and grains 34% It's a taste preference 38% To avoid harming animals 15% Helps prevent disease 37% Promotes long-term health It's less expensive to not eat meat 14% 37% I don't like the taste of meat that Promotes daily health 37% much 13% Eating clean 30% It's better for the environment 11% Health reasons - I'm managing a It's a lifestyle preference 28% disease 8% Better treatment of animals I don't like handling or cooking 27% meat 7% Environmental/sustainability reasons 25% No particular reason 22% Q4av) Why do you limit or avoid meat consumption? (Base: Those who do not eat Q21c) Rate the importance of each of the following in driving your plant-based meat almost daily) food/beverage choices. 22 TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A PLANT-BASED DIET’S BENEFITS “A vegetarian diet can be nutritionally adequate containing high intakes of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts, soy products, fiber, phytochemicals, and antioxidants.” Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, Dietitians of Canada, and the American College of Sports Medicine. Position Statement: Nutrition and Athletic Performance 23 EXAMPLE: “BLUE ZONES” Blue Dietary Plant Zone Staples/Patterns Based? Ikaria, Potatoes, goat’s milk, honey, Greece legumes, wild greens, some fruit and relatively small amounts of fish. Okinawa, Seaweed, turmeric, sweet potato, Japan bitter melons, tofu, garlic, brown rice, green tea and shitake mushrooms. Sardinia, Flat and sourdough bread, barley, Italy fennel, fava beans, chickpeas, tomatoes, almonds, goat’s milk, sheep’s cheese, milk thistle tea, and wine from Grenache grapes. Loma Lina, Grains, fruits, nuts and vegetables, California drink only water, avocados, salmon, nuts, beans, oatmeal, whole wheat bread, and soy milk. Nicoya Beans, corn and squash, papayas, Peninsula, yams, bananas, peach palms. Costa Rica https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/04/11/398325030/eating-to-break-100- longevity-diet-tips-from-the-blue-zones 24 https://www.bluezones.com/recipes/food-guidelines/ DRIVER: THE PLANET SOURCES: A comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Plant-Based Foods and Meat Foods Summary (Quantis & Morningstar Farms, 2016) 25 PROTEIN ALTERNATIVES 26 CELLULAR AGRICULTURE 27 CELLULAR AGRICULTURE 28 Datassentials 2018 Trends PROS AND CONS Amy Myrdal Miller, MS, RDN, FAND…"There are so many other more viable, appealing, affordable options for meeting human protein needs," she says. "I'd rather see more people eat more plant protein from crops like legumes such as beans, peas, lentils, chickpeas, and peanuts. Chris Vogliano, MS, RD… "Meat is the biggest source of our dietary carbon and water footprints," he says. "Some may be turned off by lab-grown meat due to its 'ick factor,' but I believe it deserves further consideration." In Vogliano's opinion, cultured meat "will significantly reduce our carbon footprints in a meaningful way and is a necessary technology if we truly want to begin mitigating our diet-related carbon emissions." Pros: Cons: https://www.todaysdietitian.com/news/exclusive