Number 10 2015 ISSN 2196-3940 INTERNATIONAL Provincial Autonomy: The Territorial Dimension of Peace in Mozambique Natália Bueno, Johannes Plagemann, and Julia Strasheim A year after the 2014 national elections Mozambican security forces began increasing the pressure on Renamo, the main opposition party and former guerrilla movement, to disarm. Following several attacks on his entourage since September, Renamo lead- er Afonso Dhlakama has gone into hiding. On 19 November the Mozambican president and leader of the ruling Frelimo party, Filipe Nyusi, called for “restraint” in disarm- ing Renamo – thereby exposing an unusual degree of friction between the more radical wing and the moderates within Frelimo. Analysis The resurgence of violent conflict in Mozambique in 2013/14 raised new doubts about the country’s peace and democratisation process. After a strong showing at the 2014 national elections, Renamo began demanding autonomy for those provinces in which it won majorities. The governing Frelimo party has rejected these demands. Renamo presidential candidate and former civil war combatant Afonso Dhlakama EDITION won 37 against Filipe Nyusi’s 57 per cent of the popular vote – to the surprise of ma- ny and amid allegations of fraud. Governing Frelimo have since been in negotiations with Renamo but have rejected calls for Renamo’s participation in government. Since Filipe Nyusi took presidential office in January 2015, Renamo has repeatedly called for subnational autonomy in six provinces with significant opposition support. Although Mozambican provinces are administered by centrally nominated gover- nors, direct elections in 53 mostly urban municipalities allow for some degree of sub- national autonomy. A donor-funded decentralisation process since the late 1990s has also contributed to both the deconcentration of power and some devolution. English Comparative research on territorial autonomy arrangements suggests that such pacts can be a tool for sustainable peace, but that territorial deals should be embed- ded in broader institutional reforms in order to be a viable solution to conflict. Keywords: Mozambique, Frelimo, Renamo, territorial autonomy, peace www.giga.hamburg/giga-focus Mozambique since 2013: Peace Unravels caused significant economic losses, including the suspension of foreign direct investment. Conse- Fifteen months after the 2014 peace accord that quently, memories of Mozambique’s brutal civil ended a 16-months military uprising in Mozam- war resurged and old fears were resurrected. bique, the country appears to once again be on the On 5 September 2014 former president Arman- brink of violent conflict. The current political crisis do Guebuza and Dhlakama signed the Accord on started after the 2014 general election. As in past Cessation of Hostilities and thus brought mili- elections, the victory of the incumbent Mozam- tary hostilities to a halt. The signature of the new bique Liberation Front (Frelimo) was overshad- peace agreement represented renewed hope, and owed by allegations of electoral fraud, the misuse allowed for both parties to focus their efforts on of state resources, a lack of transparency, and an contesting the upcoming general election in Oc- “uneven playing field.” The Mozambican Nation- tober 2014. However, the agreement did little to al Resistance (Renamo), the main opposition par- ease the political tensions between the two par- ty and former guerrilla movement, immediate- ties. Even though Renamo voters attended the ly rejected the results despite its own unexpected polls in great numbers, voter turnout was still low strong showing. Afonso Dhlakama, the long-time when compared to the 1990s – only 51 per cent leader of Renamo, has constantly made reference of all eligible voters. The main presidential candi- to the use of force as a last resort to achieve Rena- dates were Filipe Jacinto Nyusi (Frelimo), Afonso mo’s political goals, which has fuelled fears of civ- Dhlakama (Renamo), and David Simango (Demo- il war in Mozambique. Recently, Dhlakama asked, cratic Movement of Mozambique, MDM). Frelimo “Has Frelimo ever accepted to approve anything once again prevailed, with Nyusi securing 57 per without being beaten?”1 cent of the vote. Prior to the 2014 elections, Mozambique had The new leader himself and his transition to experienced almost two years of military confron- power have also caused uncertainty in Mozam- tation because of a disagreement between Freli- bique. Nyusi is native of Mueda Cabo Delgado, mo and Renamo over electoral legislation, the dis- the country’s northernmost province and home armament of Renamo, the integration of Renamo to the Makonde people, who fought for libera- forces into the Mozambican army, and the “de- tion against Portugal. The Makonde represent a politicisation” (despartidarização) of the state. De- strong interest group in the Ministry of Defence politicisation aims at reducing Frelimo’s long- and greatly influenced Nyusi’s selection as a pres- standing hold on the state and the ongoing con- idential candidate. Compared with previous Mo- vergence of state and party matters. Frelimo had zambican presidents, Nyusi has had a very short previously passed new legislation not only lim- political career. He spent a great part of his profes- iting opposition parties’ participation in nation- sional life in the business sector and only entered al and provincial elections but also reducing their politics in 2008, when he was nominated minister capacity to contest elections in most constituen- of defence by then president Armando Guebuza. cies (Manning 2010). In response, Renamo de- Although Guebuza concluded his term in office in manded further reforms of the electoral system, line with the constitutional two-term limit, he ini- including changes to the National Elections Com- tially remained Frelimo party leader. This raised mission (CNE), which had purportedly manipu- doubts about his commitment to the democratic lated past electoral processes in favour of Frelimo. process because, historically, presidents have al- Following an attack on Renamo’s military base ways occupied both posts. Guebuza’s resigna- in Satunjira by national force in October 2013, tion as party leader three months after Nyusi was Dhlakama declared the suspension of the Rome sworn in as president exposed Frelimo’s inter- General Peace Accord. Renamo retaliation was nal friction. According to the newspaper Savana,2 limited mostly to the central provinces, but their even before Nyusi’s inauguration, Guebuza had impact on Mozambican society was severe. Be- declared his intention to hold on to the Frelimo sides numerous casualties, they contributed to the leadership to the dismay of other leading Frelimo destruction of Mozambique’s infrastructure and figures, such as Alberto Chipande.3 This reveals 2 Savana weekly newspaper, printed edition, Maputo, 30 Janu- 1 Savana weekly newspaper, printed edition, Maputo, 26 June ary 2015. 2015. 3 Alberto Chipande is a senior member of Frelimo, Maconde, GIGA Focus International Edition/English 10/2015 - 2 - that it will be a big challenge for Nyusi to con- The Recent Call for Territorial Autonomy solidate power inside Frelimo, particularly over the remaining guebuzistas, who have adopted a As soon as the general election results were an- radical position towards Renamo’s claims. In the nounced, Renamo declared it did not recognise words of former foreign affairs minister, Leonar- their validity. They alleged that nearly one million do Simão, “poor communication and strong hos- votes had been rigged in favour of Frelimo. To tility characterised the relationship between Gue- remedy the situation, Dhlakama at first proposed buza’s government and Renamo.”4 Under such the creation of a transitory government composed conditions, the emphasis Nyusi placed on equal- of technocrats to rule the country until the next ity and political inclusion in his inaugural speech, elections in 2019. Soon, however, Dhlakama aban- as well as his reiteration of his availability to meet doned the idea and instead began demanding with Dhlakama, indicated a renewed willingness greater autonomy for the six provinces in which to negotiate. he claimed to have won a majority – Nampula, Ni- Nevertheless, the reality on the ground differs assa, Tete, Zambezia, Sofala, and Manica. considerably from the rhetoric and declarations. Dhlakama’s demands were codified in a bill The most recent outbreaks of violence have seen that envisaged the establishment of autonomous an already unstable situation further deteriorate, provinces represented by Renamo in the Mozam- raising concerns about whether Nyusi will be able bican Parliament. The bill called for the immediate to maintain peace in the country and keep the gue- creation of the six aforementioned autonomous buzistas at bay. A first violent incident occurred on provinces, the nomination of provincial coun- 12 September 2015, when Dhlakama’s motorcade cil presidents (presidentes de conselhos provinciais) was met with gunshots in Macossa, Manica prov- according to which presidential candidate won ince. Dhlakama claimed that he was the victim of the most votes in each provinces, and the trans- a Frelimo plot, while Frelimo accused Renamo of fer of 50 per cent of all revenues generated by re- staging the attack. The episode remains unclear, source extraction to the new autonomous provinc- and no conclusive investigation has been carried es. However, on 30 April 2015 Frelimo shot down out – though several news reports confirm a ma- (chumbou)