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The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022

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The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 4.15.1 Italian Military Fighter Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2022 Visiongain has determined that the Italian fighter aircraft market was worth $0.22bn in 2011. Visiongain forecasts that the Italian fighter aircraft market will record an annual growth rate (AGR) of 13.6% in 2012, resulting in the value of the Italian fighter aircraft market increasing to $0.25bn in 2012. Over the forecast period 2012-2022, the Italian fighter aircraft market is forecast to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7%, producing a market projection of $0.90bn in 2022. For the period 2012-2017, a CAGR of -9.7% is expected for the Italian fighter aircraft market, with a CAGR of 43.1% projected for the period 2017-2022. For 2012, Visiongain determined that the Italian fighter aircraft market will equate to 0.7% of the global fighter aircraft market. Visiongain projects this figure to increase by 0.9% over the forecast period, to 1.6% in 2022. Cumulative sales for the Italian fighter aircraft market are forecast to amount to $4.80bn from 2012-2022, representing 1.0% of the projected global fighter aircraft market cumulative sales over this time. The total number of units sold over the forecast period 2012 to 2022 is expected to be 42. Table 4.71 and Figure 4.62 show a summary of the Italian fighter aircraft market, comparing vital statistics and data on the submarket from 2012 to 2022. Tables 4.72 and 4.73, along with Figure 4.63 and 4.64 show the Italian fighter aircraft market forecast, in terms of sales ($bn), units, annual growth rates (AGR) (%), and compound annual growth rates (CAGR) (%). Figure 4.63 Italian Military Fighter Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2022 (Units) 10 9 8 7 6 5 Units 4 3 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year Source: Visiongain 2012 www.visiongain.com Page 230 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 4.15.2 Can Italy forge Fighter Aircraft Procurement out of Defence Cuts? Italy has been besieged by economic uncertainly following the Euro-zone crisis, and austerity measures aimed at stabilising the country’s finances will likely impact on the ability of the Italian Air Force to maintain its full ambitions in regards to fighter aircraft. In spite of this, Italy remains a major procurement partner for the F-35 and Eurofighter jets, and showed its utility within international combat and peace keeping scenarios through its deployment of Tornado and F-16 aircraft in Operation Odyssey Dawn against Libya. 4.15.2.1 Eurofighter The Italian Air Force has procured a total of 96 Typhoon aircraft through to Tranche 3A of the Eurofighter programme, which began with an order for 121 units in 1998. Due to austerity measures and the downsizing of other nation’s orders, Visiongain assesses that it is unlikely that the Italian Air Force will confirm its request for the full number of units through Tranche 3B, and acquire an additional 25 aircraft. Cancellation costs will apply if the Italians decide to drop the programme; however these are thought to be potentially less than the cost of procurement and then sustainment of the additional aircraft in times of economic uncertainty. For structure of the Eurofighter programme, see Chapter 4.9 and Table 4.74 and Figure 4.64. Table 4.74 Italian Eurofighter Procurement Plans by Tranche (Units) 1998 Tranche Tranche Tranche Tranche Total Order 1 2 3A 3B Procurement Italian Eurofighter 121 28 47 21 (25) 96 Typhoon Procurement (Units) Source: Visiongain 2012 www.visiongain.com Page 232 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 Figure 4.65 Italian Eurofighter Procurement Plans by Tranche (Units) 50 47 45 40 35 30 28 25 25 Units 21 20 15 10 5 0 Tranche 1 Tranche 2 Tranche 3A Tranche 3B Order Period Source: Visiongain 2012 In March 2012 Alenia Aermacchi, BAE Systems, and Cassidian all received significant 5-year contracts for continued support of the Eurofighter Typhoon programme. The contract was signed by Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH and NETMA. The contracts had the following details: • Alenia Aermacchi - support of the Italian Air Force, contract value: $666m • BAE Systems - support of the Royal Air Force (RAF), contract value $713m • Cassidian - support to the Luftwaffe and Spanish Air Force, contract value not revealed. 4.15.2.2 F-35 Italy is part of the F-35 programme as a Tier 2 nation alongside the Netherlands. Italy originally indicated that it would procure 131 F-35 JSF jets, however in February 2012 that figure was revised to 90, owing to austerity measures stemming from Rome. The move to buy 41 Lightning II aircraft less than originally planned will save the Italian government approximately $6.6bn from a cost of $19.8bn for all 131 jets. The Italian Air Force is facing severe cuts from Defence Minister Giampaolo Di Paola with around 20% of military and civilian defence personnel likely to lose their jobs, in addition to the expected closure of up to a third of Italy’s military bases over the next five years in order to save money. www.visiongain.com Page 233 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 In May 2012 Di Paola met with the US Pentagon chief Leon Panetta for talks concerning the F-35 and both committed to the project that will see Italy procure the F-35B short-takeoff, vertical landing (STOVL) variant. The F-35B was also announced to be out of a ‘probation period’ as it has caught up in terms of testing compared with the A and C F-35 models. Table 4.75 List of Italian F-35 Programme Subcontractors Selected Italian F-35 Subcontractors Aerea Aermacchi Alenia Cusinetti Datamat Logic Magnaghi Marconi Selenia Marconi Sirio Panel Mecaer Moog- SBC Oto Meleraia Piaggio Samputensilli Segundo Mona umbra UoP York Galileo Source: Visiongain 2012 4.15.2.3 F-16 Lease The Italian air Force currently leases 34 F-16 A and B variants from the US. This contract is expected to end with the finalisation of the Eurofighter deal, although with the Tranche 3B procurement not expected to be completed, the future of the F-16 within the Italian Air Force is more uncertain. The use of the F-16 by the Italian Air Force in Operation Odyssey Dawn against Gaddafi’s Libya also complicates the F-16 lease, as the aircraft form a valuable part of the Italian military’s projection of power. www.visiongain.com Page 234 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 5.1 Strengths 5.1.1 High Demand for Fifth-Generation Aircraft While the F-22 ‘Raptor’ is, presently, the only operational fifth-generation fighter, there are at least ten ongoing projects by other nations, either separately or in partnership, to develop such platforms. With the advantages offered by a fifth-generation fighter, typically defined as advanced stealth capabilities, extreme performance, and highly-advanced sensor/information networks, earlier generations of fighters are placed at a reduced level of effectiveness. While the extent of this capability gap is the subject of significant debate, the ubiquity of fifth-generation programs emphasises its central position in future strategic thinking. Ongoing programs: • US: Lockheed-Martin F-22 ‘Raptor’ • US/UK/Italy/Netherlands/Turkey/Canada/Australia/Norway/Denmark: F-35 • Russia: Sukhoi PAK FA/T-50 • Russia: MiG LMFS • China: J-XX (J-20/J-21) • Japan: Mitsubishi ATD-X • South Korea/Indonesia: KAI K-FX • India: HAL AMCA • Russia/India: HAL FGFA Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft 5.1.2 US ‘Pivot’ to Asia/Air-Sea Battle The decision of the Obama administration to reorient its strategic focus to the Pacific Ocean will have important consequences for the anticipated role of fighter aircraft. Given the central role of East Asia and the Pacific for the US, comprising approximately 46% of US foreign trade, the need to ensure security and the freedom of the seas is paramount for US foreign policy. With the development of the Air-Sea Battle Concept (ASBC), as set out in the 2012 Joint Operational Access Concept (JOAC), fighter aircraft will have a significant role in guaranteeing US interests in the Pacific. www.visiongain.com Page 293 The Military Fighter Aircraft Market 2012-2022 6. Leading Companies in the Military Fighter Aircraft Market 6.1 Alenia Aermacchi Alenia Aermacchi is an Italian subsidiary of the Finmeccanica Group, which designs and produces training aircraft for military pilots. Founded in 1913, Alenia was integrated into the Finmeccanica Group in 2003, which holds a 99% stake in the company. Alenia employs nearly 2,000 people and has sold about 2,000 trainers to more than 40 countries. Alenia has also collaborated on several major aircraft programs. The company's facilities are located at Venegono Superiore, Italy, and the current CEO is Carmelo Consentino. Alenia has produced or been involved with the following in-service aircraft: • M-346 ‘Master’ (2004) – Production run: 0 (60 on order). Operational with: (ordered) Israel, Italy, Singapore; (interested parties) US • MB-339 (1976) – Production run: 200. Operational with: Dubai, Eritrea, Ghana, Italy, Malaysia, Nigeria, Peru • AMX Program: Alenia has a total share of 24% in the AMX, developing and manufacturing the fuselage forward and rear sections and has installed some avionic equipment in the aircraft • Panavia Tornado: Alenia Aermacchi designs and produces wing pylons and wing tips, roots, trailing edges and flaps, which represents a 5% share in the overall program • Eurofighter: Alenia Aermacchi has a share, of more than 4% in the Eurofighter program, for the design and development of wing pylons, twin missile and twin store carriers, ECM pods, carbon-fibre structures and titanium engine cowlings.
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