Monthly Food Security Report for : September 28, 2001

Summary

The 2001/02 crop year is advancing well, with conditions in all farming areas of the country conducive to a good harvest.

Despite poor rainfall during the second dekad of September, crops are continuing to develop normally. Rainfall totals for the 10-day period ranged from 0 to 49 mm, but abundant, regular rainfall during the month of August and the first dekad of September allowed crops in farming areas throughout the country to develop normally. Most crops are in the height-growth and heading stages of the growing cycle.

Farmers’ spirits were buoyed as new millet crops harvested in , , Maradi, Dosso, and Tillabery regions helped replenish household provisions and boosted market supplies. However, pockets of drought have been reported in Illéla, and Konni, , which will need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

Herbage, watering points, and water holes are plentiful in grazing areas throughout the country. With good fill levels at major surface water sources, animals are able to be watered and a large water reserve is available for the growing of off-season crops.

Plant health is being threatened by the infestation of 78,000 ha of cropland with flower-eating insects and grasshoppers. The Plant Protection Service (SPV) has identified the breeding grounds and hatching beds for these crop pests and is proceeding with ground and aerial spraying operations.

The Market Information System (SIM) is reporting across-the-board cuts in grain prices in the wake of the first harvests of new millet crops and of new millet imports from Nigeria on markets around the country, with the sole exception of . These price cuts should gradually make food grains more accessible to the local population, after this year's comparatively high prices.

1. Outlook for the 2001/02 Crop Year Second Multidisciplinary Working Group (MWG) Appraisal Mission

On the heels of its first mid-term review mission for the current crop year from August 1-13, the Multidisciplinary Working Group (MWG) led a second mission to all regions of the country from September 4-15 to assess the progress of the crop year as of the end of August. FEWS NET/Niger took part in the mission to the Tillabery, Dosso, Tahoua and regions. In field trips followed by review meetings with local agricultural agency officials, participants assessed rainfall conditions, crop growth and development, and plant health conditions, and made crop production forecasts for all regions of the country.

After slackening in early August, heavy rain fell in the second and third dekads of the month in virtually all farming areas of the country. Rainfall totals as of August 31 at 68 percent of the 236 rainfall gauging stations in the monitoring network were above the multiyear average for 1971- 2000. Filingué and Ayorou (Tillabery Region) reported large rainfall surpluses of more than 100 mm. In contrast, Birnin Konni and (Tahoua Region) showed rainfall deficits of more than 100 mm.

There are a few pockets of drought in Doutchi district, but they have had little impact on production in Doutchi Department.

The abundance and regularity of rainfall throughout August helped crops develop normally. As of August 31, most crops in farming areas throughout the country were in the height-growth and heading stages of development. Some crops in Dosso, Zinder, and Maradi regions are already at maturity or in the harvesting stage. Early harvests of new millet crops in these regions are boosting grain supplies on area markets and replenishing household provisions.

Local agricultural agency officials confirm good progress with cash crops (groundnuts, cowpeas) which should enable farmers to market these products and boost their incomes and purchasing power.

New and massive infestations of pests have assaulted crops in the Diffa, Dosso, Zinder, Maradi, and Tahoua regions, but are not expected to harm the progress of the growing season. According to the Plant Protection Service (SPV), crop predators have attacked 75,997 ha of millet and cowpea crops in Dosso, 17,171 ha of millet crops in Diffa, 82,651 ha of millet and sorghum crops in Maradi, 48,882 ha of cropland in Tahoua, and 90,325 ha of crops in Zinder. The pests are mostly flower-eating insects, grasshoppers, defoliating caterpillars, and pearl millet stalk borers.

A total of 87,536 ha of crops have been treated via ground and aerial spraying through the efforts of the Niger government and its development partners.

According to local agricultural agency officials, the infestations are not expected to have any major adverse effects on the progress of the growing season for two reasons:

• The Plant Protection Service (SPV) is continuing to treat crops by means of ground and aerial spraying operations • Farmers in affected areas have already begun harvesting early-maturing crops at the recommendation of local agricultural agencies

Prices on major markets throughout the country vary from region to region. Prices are generally holding steady in Illéla, (Tahoua), Say, Tera, and (Tillabery), where the average price per 100-kg sack of grain in August was identical to the July price, or 19,400 francs.

Farmers in these regions are selling poultry and small animals and working for pay as field hands.

In contrast, August prices were down from July in all other locations in the wake of the harvesting of new millet crops in Niger, new millet imports from Nigeria, and sales of millet to low-income households with weak purchasing power at a subsidized price of 10,000 francs per 100-kg sack of mixed grains.

As of July 31, 1,852 villages with a total population of 1,884,193 were considered to be at risk of experiencing shortfalls in grain production compared with local average levels. The at-risk population at August 31 stood at 1,727 villages, with a total of 1,660,236 inhabitants (Table 1). Note the 7 percent regression between the first and second MWG/FEWS NET missions. In contrast, the size of the at-risk population in Dosso was up slightly between July and August (from 199,270 to 246,735).

Table 1: Status of Villages at Risk as of August 31, 2001

Regions Total Villages Villages at Risk At-risk Population Agadez 224 224 206 396 Diffa 559 99 20 417 Dosso 1384 214 246 735 Maradi 2181 410 374 227 Tahoua 1380 140 293 986 Tillabery 1648 189 221 410 Zinder 2685 447 282 117 C. U. 26 4 1 875 Total 10 087 1727 1 660 236 Source: Status report, MWG mission

This situation meets the criteria of moderate food insecurity, triggered by delays in planting and seedling failures in Ouallam, Tillabery, Filingué and Say (Tillabery Region); excess moisture (Dosso region); and the leaching of soils in Tillabery and Tahoua regions. The progress of crop growth and development in these at-risk areas, as well as the food security status of the local area population, will need to be closely monitored.

2. Availability of Food Supplies

2.1. Rainfall

The moderate rain that fell in all farming areas of the country during the first dekad of September slacked off in the second dekad of the month.

Cumulative rainfall totals at September 20 ranged from 350 to 720 mm and were up from last year at 77 percent of the 236 rainfall gauge stations included in the monitoring network. Filingué (Tillabery Region), (Tahoua Region), and (Maradi Region) all reported large rainfall surpluses of more than 200 mm.

This should spur the development of crops in these areas, which are already in the height- growth and heading stages of the growing cycle.

Dargol and Kollo (Tillabery Region) reported rainfall deficits of more than 100 mm. These lower levels are not expected to significantly retard the development of crops in these areas because of the heavier rainfall there earlier in the season.

Pockets of drought lasting at least 10 days withered crops in the heading stage of development in Bouza, Illéla, and Konni departments (Tahoua Region). These dry spells threaten to turn a growing season that had been robust throughout August into average to mediocre harvests.

These areas will need to be closely monitored to assess potential damage and whether and how to intervene.

Given the favorable rainfall conditions earlier in the season and cumulative water reserves, the easing of the rains in the second dekad of September is not expected to have any major adverse effects on aggregate production or water levels.

2.2. Agricultural Conditions

September saw a continuation of the good progress in crop growth and development noted in August by the appraisal mission, with most crops at an advanced stage of development.

The majority of crops are in the following stages of the growing cycle:

• Millet crops are in the tillering stage in Dosso and Tillabery regions, the height-growth stage in Diffa and Zinder, and in maturity in all other farming areas of the country • Sorghum crops are in the advanced emergence stage in Dosso, the tillering stage in Diffa and Tillabery, the height-growth stage in Maradi, and in maturity in all other areas • Cowpea crops are in the branching-out stage in Diffa and range up to maturity elsewhere • Groundnut crops are in the pod-formation stage to maturity

Satellite images of vegetation conditions (NDVI) for the second dekad of September of 2001 show vegetation in good condition at around the 15th parallel in the west, with equally good conditions in the southwest, in the southern part of the departments of Gaya, Say, and Birni N’Gaouré (Figure 1.1).

Though below average, conditions are good to the south of the 13th parallel. Conditions in the northern reaches of the departments of Tera, Ouallam and Tchintabaraden (Figure 1.2) are above average.

The promising crop forecasts are boosting farmers’ confidence following their concern over the unstable farming conditions in July and early August. This bodes well for prospects that farming activities will resume, that necessary manpower will be retained to work the land, and that older stocks of foodstuffs will be sold. Together, these activities will help to strengthen household food security, provision markets, and lower prices.

Farmers’ renewed optimism is having a stabilizing effect and is helping to motivate farmers to devise innovative strategies for strengthening their cooperatives and planning their post-season activities. This feeling of confidence has been reinforced by the early harvests of new millet crops getting underway in villages all across the country. Figure 1: Satellite Estimation of Vegetation Conditions (NDVI) Figure 1.1: Second Dekad of September 2001

Bare Soil Emergence Average Good Dense Very Dense Clouds

Figure 1.2: Comparison with Average

Much Below Average Below Average No Difference Above Average Much Above Average

Source: NASA

This year’s good harvest prospects are materializing at the field level, thanks to regular, abundant rainfall and relief operations centered around the following activities:

• "Food-for-work" programs conducted by NGOs (Africare, Care International, Helen Keller, CRS) • Government-sponsored subsidized grain sales programs • Distributions of seeds to farmers in areas reporting high initial seedling failure rates • Government sales of fertilizer in all parts of the country in June and July • Consciousness-raising activities conducted by the government and NGOs with respect to the retention of local manpower and the good progress of the growing season

With the high water levels in seasonal lakes and future off-season crops, prospects are good for ensuring that food grains will be available and accessible to households around the country, at least through the end of the first quarter of 2002. This situation would mean relatively low grain prices and healthy market supplies throughout this period.

2.3. Water Levels

Good rainfall and rising water levels have helped improve stream flow conditions along the Niger River.

The country’s major seasonal lakes are all full: Lake Komadougou, Lake Maggia, Lake Goulbi in Maradi, and Lake Koramas in Zinder.

Th continued existence of large water reserves beyond the end of the rainy season is important for the growing of off-season crops, the continued watering of animals, and the availability of herbage. These water supplies are also used by communities to build small dams, dikes, school, and clinics. These community works and facilities, which are generally financed by the government or NGOs, help villages hold on to their workforce and provide new sources of income for the local population.

3. Grazing Conditions

Plentiful pasture and watering points should help meet the food requirements of the animal population for several months beyond the end of the growing season. Confining animal herds to rainy season grazing areas prevents their returning to farming areas too early and minimizes the risk of what can become fratricidal battles between migratory herdsmen and sedentary farmers.

The plentiful pasture and watering points for animals are also helping to boost milk production available for household consumption and to strengthen the purchasing power of herdsmen.

4. Market Conditions

The continuing upswing in grain prices into the second dekad of August came to a halt in early September as prices fell with the first new millet crops brought to market from Niger and Nigeria.

Markets provisioned by Nigeria and by early harvests of locally grown millet are reporting price cuts. Prices are down by 17 percent from August of this year in Maradi, by 15 percent in Tahoua, and by 16 percent in Zinder (Graph 1). Prices in CFA francs are up slightly in Diffa, by a margin of 7 percent, in the wake of the recent depreciation of the Naira, the Nigerian currency generally used in place of the CFA franc as the medium of exchange on the Diffa market.

Continued boosts in prices into September can be explained by last year’s country-wide food shortage, tight market supplies, and the appreciation of the Naira, which raised the price of imported products from Nigeria from April through August of this year.

Graph 1: Wholesale Millet Price Trends in Selected Markets in Niger: May-September 2001

250 May Jun Jul Aug Sep

200

150

100 CFA Francs/KG

50

0 Diffa Maradi Tahoua Tillabery Zinder

FEWS NET/Niger Source: SIMC

Graph 2: Inter-year Comparison of Wholesale Millet Prices in Selected Markets in Niger: September 1996- 2001

250 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

200

150

100 CFA Francs/KG CFA

50

0 Maradi Tahoua Zinder Niamey

FEWS NET/NIGER Source: SIMC The downswing in prices since early September should continue throughout this period of nationwide harvests, making food grains both available and accessible to households around the country.

Second only to the 1998 price following a poor harvest for 1997, the September 200l price of millet is higher than at any other time in the four-year reference period. Prices in Tahoua and Maradi are up by 60 percent and 95 percent, respectively, from September of 1999 (Graph No. 2).

5. Projects and Programs

Ministry of Agricultural Development officials have taken the following measures to sustain and safeguard crop production:

• Replenishment of the National Grain Marketing Board (OPVN) security stock. This stock, which currently consists of 3,900 MT of grain, needs to be strengthened. The government of Niger and the donor community intend to purchase 14,000 MT of grain from this year’s harvest to rebuild the nation’s security stock, part of which has been used in inventory turnover operations. • Provision of training and financial assistance services to grain banks and cooperatives. • Implementation of a large-scale agricultural products marketing project financed by the World Bank. • Strengthening of surface water management capabilities to boost production by lowering unit water charges in water supply and irrigation projects.

These steps represent an important turning point in the implementation of the Niger government’s agricultural development policy, as they depart from the usual approaches centered around distributions of free food aid to subsidized grain sales programs, assistance programs for grain banks, and cooperatives and marketing assistance services. .

But undertaking such promising initiatives is often hampered by resource shortages, administrative red tape, inadequate monitoring and control mechanisms, and ineffectual involvement of civil society. The government, NGOs, and project authorities need to develop a framework for improving discussion and coordination of preventive measures and relief operations in the area of food security.

To this end, a study evaluating food security planning in Niger is nearing completion. The goal of the study, which was financed by the European Union, is to restructure the following agencies: The National Grain Marketing Board (OPVN), the Early Warning System (SAP), the Market Information System (SIM), the Food Crisis Unit (CCA), the Joint Advisory Committee (CMC), and the Donor Working Committee (CRC). It also seeks to redesign coordination mechanisms for food security programs. The preliminary report discussed at the last meeting of the Donor Working Committee attended by FEWS NET Niger proposes to do the following:

• Free the SAP from its disaster management obligations and limit its mandate to information activities and vulnerability assessments, delegating disaster management responsibilities to a specialized unit apart from the SAP • Strengthen the field-level assessment capabilities of regional SAP units • Strengthen CCA staffing and funding to bolster its situational monitoring and evaluation capabilities • Place the OPVN and SIM under appropriate supervisory authorities • Frame an emergency action plan as quickly as possible, to serve as a framework agreement for responding to food emergencies in Niger.