AGRICULTURAL SUCCESS IN THE NORTH, KEEPING IT MOVING THE NEED FOR NULLINGA TINAROO AN ECONOMIC SUCCESS STORY The Tinaroo Dam, that underpins the • Cost in 1958 £12.7m Dimbulah Irrigation Area (1) in Far North Queens- • In 2018 dollars (1) $420m land, has proved a major success in recent dec- • Gross Value of Agricultural Production ades. The dam that cost $12.7m in 1958 (about MDWSS 2015 $380m (2) $420m in current values) is now underpinning • Annual Addition Gross Regional Product agricultural production worth close to $400m est. $320m per annum (3) each year – in terms of gross value added to the (1) CPI . (2) Source: DAFF. regional economy now equalling its original cost (3) Estimate Cummings Economics. every 18 months. (1) Mareeba Dimbulah Water Supply System (MDWSS) DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURE On continuation of long-term 35-year growth TINAROO: WATER NOW FULLY COMMITTED trajectory of 3.4% per annum, additional Water demand from Tinaroo Dam has increased supply needed would be, by 2030: 70,000 ML at an average of 3.4% per annum since 1981. The and by 2040: 160,000 ML. Dam’s water is now fully committed at 150,000 ML (mega litres) per annum. Maryborough Sugar (MSF) have indicated GROWTH IN DELIVERIES OF TINAROO WATER 1981 - 2016 they would take 40,000 ML from a new dam ML for expansion of sugarcane production to 180,000 R2 = 0.9007 160,000 supply their sugar mill in the area. Some ir- 140,000 rigators are now paying up to $4000/ML for 120,000 water allocation. 100,000 80,000 PROJECTED DEMAND (MDWSS) at 3.4% pa to 2040 ML 60,000 350,000 40,000 300,000 20,000 250,000 0 200,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 150,000 Source: Sunwater Annual Report DNRM Water Supply Current 100,000 Water Supply with Reduction of Water Losses DEMAND FOR URBAN WATER FOR CAIRNS 50,000 Water Supply with Nullinga Projected Demand Cairns is one of ’s fastest growing re- 0

gional cities having more than trebled popula- 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 tion since 1976. A continuation of past long- term population growth trajectories could see a need to commence drawing from the MDWSS by as early as 2032 and need up to 24,000 ML by 2050. PROJECTED DEMAND CAIRNS

70000 Need from MDWSS

60000

50000

40000 With supply Mulgrave 1.

30000 On long term population trends past 40, 25, 20000 10 years at 418 Litres per person, per day. 10000

0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Source: Cairns Regional Council NULLINGA DAM: THE ANSWER A VOLUME SUPPLY POTENTIAL IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME A project to modernise the distribution sys- The site is not as efficient as Tinaroo in terms tem to especially reduce losses is estimated of yield but is at a very cost efficient location. to only yield about 10,000 ML. A diversion • Existing distribution channel system already in tunnel from the North Johnstone River into place the Tinaroo Dam has not been subject to de- • Existing experienced and entrepreneurial tailed studies but seems only likely to yield farmers something of the order of 20,000 ML. Nul- • Existing close-by Mareeba, a highly developed agricultural support centre linga Dam at a cost of the order of $300m to • Existing highly developed transport services $500m could be expected to yield of the order to southern markets and close to Cairns inter- of 60,000 to 80,000ML national airport and Cairns seaport for future On demand trends, it can be expected that export growth water of about 80,000 ML coming available will be taken up relatively quickly and under- pin additional agricultural production of the order of about $200m a year in current value. THE CAIRNS/TROPICAL NORTH QLD PENINSULA REGION LEADS THE WAY Annual water runoff of about 105 million ML in the region accounts for 26% of Australia’s total and 67% of Queensland’s total. Not sur- prisingly, the region is leading the way in crop- TROPICAL AUSTRALIA GROWING ping development in tropical Australia with a AGRICULTURAL SUCCESS value of crops of over $1 billion recorded in Historically, tropical Australia represented 2016-17 compared with $182m in 1982-83. a greater challenge for a young nation with CROPS TROPICAL AUSTRALIA most of its population and technology drawn COMPARATIVE VALUE 2016/17 (Millions) from north western Europe. In recent decades 1200 1106

1000 however, major progress has been made. Su- 774 perior tropical cattle breeds plus developing 800 678 markets in Asia have seen a major increase in 600 417 the beef cattle herd in the North. Mechanisa- 400 tion of sugarcane harvesting and bulk sugar 200 100 40 shipping have led to global competitiveness. 0 Cairns TNQ Mackay TVL/West Central QLD Northern Kimerly/ Improved roads and transport to southern Region Region Region /CW Region Territory Pilbara markets has seen the North’s superior grow- Source: ABS Cat. 7503.0 ing conditions come to the fore for tropical FRUIT VALUE OF PRODUCTION AUSTRALIA and offseason fruit and vegetable production. SA4 REGIONS 2012-13 (Millions) The Cairns region is now Australia’s third larg- 800 751 est fruit producing region. 700 644 PROPORTION OF BEEF CATTLE IN TROPICAL AUSTRALIA 600 525 500 470 60% 400 355 50%

300 228 40% 200 34%

100

0 20% Vic Nth West SA Sth East QLD Cairns NSW Murry VIC QLD Wide Bay Riverina Shepparton Source: ABS Cat. 7503.0 0% 1992-94 2016-17 Source: ABS Cat. 7111.0