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INDICATOR PROJECT SOUTH AFRICA Centre for Social and Development Studies University of Natal • King George V Ave • Durban • 4001 • Tel MAJOR DONORS Anglo American & De Beers Chairman's Fund Education Trust First National Bank of Southern Africa Ltd Human Sciences Research Council South African Breweries Ltd AECI Ltd • Africa Institute of SA • African Cables • Afrox Ltd • Allied Electronics Corporation Ltd • Amalgamated Beverage Industries • Barlow Limited • BP Southern Africa • Chamber of Mines of SA • Colgate-Palmolive (Pty) Ltd • Data Research Africa • Development Bank of Southern Africa • Durban Regional Chamber of Business • EMSA • ESKOM • Gencor SA Limited • Glass S.A. • Gold Fields Foundation • Johannesburg Consolidated Investment Co Ltd • Johnson & Johnson • S. C. Johnson Wax • KwaZulu Finance & Investment Corp • Liberty Life • Malbak Ltd • Nampak • Nedcor • Old Mutual • Pick 'n Pay Corporate Services • Pretoria Portland Cement Co Rand Merchant Bank • Richards Bay Minerals • South Africa Foundation • Sanlam • SA Sugar Association • Southern Life • Standard Bank Foundation • Starcke Associates • Suncrush Limited • TEK Corporation • The Tongaat-Hulett Group Ltd • The Urban Foundation • UNISA • Vaal Reef Exploration & Mining Co Ltd • Wooltru Ltd INDICATOOUTH AFRICRA EDITORIAL A radio journalist reporting on the tragic events in INDICATOR Rwanda, when asked how people were coping, remarked: "In Africa people always have time for a smile". To the extent that wild generalisations can be made, African people are remarkably good natured. The continent is a disaster zone, trapped in war, poverty CONTENTS and oppression. But centuries of slaughter in Europe - including two World Wars, the holocaust and Bosnia in 80 years - reveal the dark side of humanity everywhere. White South Africans should be deeply grateful for African goodwill. It is the essential ingredient of the extraordinary spirit of reconciliation abroad in this POIITICA1 MONITOR country. It is what will enable us to rise above the divisions that characterise societies like Northern Ireland. Bumbling Along Robert Schrire Reconciliation is embodied in the person of Nelson South Africa is bumbling along a middle road scenario towards a mixed First World-Third World society which Mandela and is being consolidated through institutions could, with sound management, lead to further like the Government of National Unity, the plethora of development and stable democracy. forums and, hopefully, the proposed Truth Commission. Quality leadership and unifying institutions must be nurtured if South Africa is to survive the daunting economic, political and social challenges it will face for The New Opposition years to come. AlfStadler Democracy has been gained but a vibrant and crucial However, goodwill must not be allowed to spill over into opposition culture lost. The new opposition is likely to uncritical compliance. As much as the new Government be comprised of workers, groups with unmet needs support it also needs vibrant opposition - in expectations, the marginalised and disenchanted Parliament and in civil society - to keep a check on what whites. it is doing, to point out its mistakes and to represent a range of very different interests. It needs constructive criticism and lively debate. These New Challenges are crucial to learning and improving, to finding new Bobby Godsell choices and solutions, to forging compromises and to South Africa needs economic growth and a balance encouraging rich diversity. between reconciliation and dissent, partnership and pluralism. Consensus should be mobilised around goals but the means must be vigorously debated and We need, in other words, strong opposition in new relations forged. Parliament and lots of Desmond Tutus outside. What we certainly do not need is the intolerance of disagreement that characterised the former government and kept it stuck in a suffocating script for A Security Policy half a century. Bill Sass As Bobby Godsell writes, it will be crucial to strike a A national security policy is urgently needed. Without one there will be confusion among security agencies balance between reconciliation and dissent, and the success of the state administration and the partnership and pluralism. "Growth and development Reconstruction and Development Programme will be goals can be formulated for every aspect of our society in doubt. which can command broad stakeholder support. We need, equally, to cultivate a vigorous debate about means. That is the realm where dissent is not only permissible but vitally required. This is the duty of loyal Securing the Future opposition." Jackie Cilliers A demoralised police force and o ver-burdened defence Indicator SA's authors will criticise the new force will be unable to cope with the massive Government, institutions and policies enthusiastically challenges facing the country. Comprehensive but helpfully. We will analyse developments and plans, restructuring of the security architecture is needed. inform debates and suggest new ways forward. Meanwhile, keep smiling. Karen Mac Gregor Local Government the Loser Editor David Christianson A distracted central government, increased provincial powers, an ineffective framework for transition and The INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA Quarterly Report and the INDICATOR local bickering are seriously threatening the chances of PRESS investigative books are published by the Centre for Social and Development Studies at the University of Natal, Durban. Opinions expressed achieving strong local government. are not necessarily those of the Editorial Committee and should not be taken to represent the policies of companies or organisations which are donor members of Indicator South Africa. '<: Cn;iyri:|hl I31 11!: irm-.t-ii;,; |,i.T=in is held by INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA h.'-","iSMn "r any part of this publication must be Editor Kctreti Mac Gregor Production/Design Rob Evans obtained from the publisher. Admin/Marketing 1'ai I-ismcr Conflict Supplement Editor Antoinette Louw Cover Graphic Sarah Hills Repro Muitigraphics Printing Robprint SOUTH AFRICA SPRING 1994 Quarterly Report VOLUME 11 NUMBER 4 ECONOMIC MONITOR COMPARATIVE MONITOR The Future of Forums Laying the Past to Rest Chris Heymans Andre du Toit The new South Africa's vision of civil society A Commission on Truth and Reconciliation is bound to participation creates space for regional economic be controversial. But the international experience is forums to continue as a check on government and a that, if properly handled, it could help settle accounts place for lobbying civil society interests. from the past and contribute towards reconciliation. Abolishing Controls The Brazilian Ballot Jan Lombard Maria D'Alva G Kinzo The whole exchange control system and the dual Whoever wins Brazil's upcoming elections will struggle exchange rate system should be phased out together. to govern successfully a country which has a flawed This article contains the executive summary of Sacob's political system, an ongoing economic crisis and a report on exchange control. deeply disillusioned electorate. Economic Outlook Mike McGrath and Merle Holden DEVELOPMENT MONITOR The economy's progress out of the recession remains an open question. Performance in 1994 is disappointing and the prospects for economic growth have been scaled down. Developing the Developers Bill Davies The South African development environment has been hampered by duplication, competition for funds, conflicts and uncertainty. There is a need to restructure and rationalise development agencies. INDUSTRIAL MONITOR Civic Capacity Building Craig Clarke, Simon Bekker and Catherine Cross Social Partnership Development initiatives need to move beyond merely Tito Mboweni delivering infrastructure towards enabling extensive South Africa must construct a unique social partnership community participation and empowering less between capital, labour and the Government, with an developed and marginalised communities. intensified role for the state in the labour market, says the Minister of Labour. The Point Waterfront The Bottom Line Thabo Mpakanyane Dudley Horner After years of consultations between local interests, Despite its chequered history, a revamped Wage Board Durban's Point Waterfront development is finally could play a vital role in determining minimum wage getting underway. It is a huge project designed to make levels for uncovered workers and in mediating Durban a major tourist destination. industrial disputes. Promoting Affirmative Action Creative Thinking Julio Faundez Mike van Graan The case for affirmative action in this country appears The arts and culture, already a low priority, are to be compelling. But it will only be effective if applied threatened with further neglect as the country struggles with caution and combined with coherent policies in key to meet basic needs. But they are crucial to democracy, social sectors. growth and nation building. Editorial Committee Simon Bekker, Mark Bennett, Rob Evans, Mervyn Frost Richard Humphries, Myrna Kaplan, Mesliack Khosa, Karen Mac Gregor, Julian May, Mike McGrath, Valerie Moller, Lawrence Schlemmer OilTICAl M 0 N I T O R Provincial shares of GGP Provincial contributions to the N-West 5.58 GGP for selected economic sectors PWV 37.39 General Government Spending N Cape 2.45 E Cape 11.88 OFS 5.74 KZN 13.44 W Cape 13.81 N-West 4.55 PWV 37 Percentage distribution of the GGP at factor cost and current prices per economic sector and per province, 1991 Sector W Cape E Cape N Cape OFS KZN N-West PWV ETvl NTvl Total Agriculture/ forestry/fishing 18.27 9.39 4.39 15.05 18.03 8.32 4.32 14.44 7.78 100.00 Mining/quarrying 0.33 0.13 6.25 14.26 3.30 26.22
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