BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM
STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
August 2005 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
CONTENTS
Page No.
Executive Summary (i)
1. Introduction 1
2. National Policy Guidance 5
3. Regional Planning Guidance/Economic Strategy 8
4. Towards A Polycentric Framework for the West Midlands 16
5. 1971-2001 – The Last 30 Years 20
6. Current Market Context 29
7. The Black Country Sub-Region Today 43
8. Economic Capacity Projections 55
9. Defining the Network of Centres 77
10. Policy Options for the Strategic Centres 99
11. The Brierley Hill/Dudley Issue 108
12. Recommended Strategy 118
13. Summary of Key Recommendations 129
APPENDICES
Appendix A – On Street Survey
Appendix B – Household Survey
Appendix C – Capacity Analysis BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
PLANS
Plan 1: West Midlands Regional Context
Plan 2: The Polycentricity Structure of the West Midlands – 1
Plan 3: The Polycentricity Structure of the West Midlands – 2
Plan 4: Black Country Strategic Centres: 1971 Turnover
Plan 5: Black Country Strategic Centres: 2004 Turnover
Plan 6: Study Area
Plan 7: Birmingham Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 8: Solihull Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 9: Sutton Coldfield Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 10: Stafford Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 11: Telford Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 12: Kidderminster Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 13: Tamworth Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 14: Cannock Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 15: Lichfield Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 16: Redditch Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 17: Network of Black Country Centres
Plan 18: Wolverhampton Comparison Goods Catchment Area
Plan 19: Merry Hill Comparison Goods Catchment Area
Plan 20: West Bromwich Comparison Goods Catchment Area
Plan 21: Walsall Comparison Goods Catchment Area
Plan 22: Strategic Development Option 1
Plan 23: Strategic Development Option 2
Plan 24: Strategic Development Option 3
Plan 25: Strategic Development Option 4 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POLICY CONTEXT
1. In the light of the Government’s recent Policy Statement on Town Centres (PPS6) the Black Country authorities’ development plans should anticipate a requirement for a much more proactive approach to the expansion of their main centres, improvements to the range of services offered in local centres and managed decline and change in any centres which can no longer realistically hold their place in the retail hierarchy. This requires a shared vision, and a co- ordinated strategy which is clearly articulated in the RSS, and applied at the local level by the Black Country Local Planning Authorities in their Local Development Frameworks (LDFs).
2. The study of the West Midlands hierarchy of centres undertaken in 2001 concluded that regional guidance should avoid a prescriptive hierarchy of established centres but acknowledge the overall importance of Birmingham City Centre. The study identified a network of 23 major centres including Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton as the focus for new retail, leisure, office and other uses which attract large numbers of people, and recommended that town and city centre strategies should be prepared to guide future public and private sector investment.
3. Regional Planning Guidance (RPG11) proposes a fundamental shift in policy direction to the previous guidance, to reverse the pattern of decentralisation of population from the Black Country and seek step change in investment and regeneration of the urban areas. The focus of the Black Country is on continuing economic, physical and environmental renewal and improved infrastructure and regeneration of the town and city centres.
4. RPG11 identifies Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton to have a key role to play in achieving urban renaissance and identifies Dudley and West Bromwich as being particularly vulnerable. It recognises Merry Hill as a regional shopping destination which may assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country, but this role and the timing of any future large scale development need to be addressed by the Regional Planning Body (RPB) in the light of the Black Country Study.
A POLYCENTRIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS
5. The West Midlands economic strategy identifies regeneration zones which include Brierley Hill, Dudley, West Bromwich, Walsall and Wolverhampton and key initiatives are identified and being brought forward in each centre. The RPG strategy for the West Midlands advocates a polycentric
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framework of centres. Polycentricity can be broadly defined as a region with a number of cities without hierarchical ranking in reasonable proximity and with functional interconnection.
6. In the West Midlands context, Birmingham City Centre will remain the dominant, regional centre; the region as a whole and the Black Country in particular, all directly benefit from the success of the city centre which will continue to be the focus for regional scale activity. However, this does not necessarily preclude options to increase the market share of the Black Country Centres relative to Birmingham City Centre. In particular, it may be appropriate for the Black Country to seek to retain a larger proportion of indigenous retail expenditure from its existing and projected population.
7. Below the regional centre, a polycentric network of strategic centres provides a basis for meeting retail, leisure and employment needs of a series of discrete catchments. In addition to providing a comprehensive range of facilities commensurate with their status as strategic centres, the concept recognises that each centre is likely to have a distinct character and additional specialist strengths and functions serving a wider, sub-regional function.
8. Below the strategic centres, the more extensive network of town centres, and district/local centres would be expected to meet everyday needs as a local focus for predominantly convenience retail, services, leisure and community facilities. The role of the Black Country Study is to identify the appropriate scale and functions of the network of strategic centres, while specific initiatives for individual town and district centres will be prepared through local development frameworks.
THE LAST 30 YEARS
9. To put the Black Country Centre Study into context, examination of the changing national, regional and sub-regional network of centres over the last 30 years provides a graphic indication of the scale of change which has taken place, identifies ongoing trends, and illustrates the scale of change which can be anticipated over the next 30 years with and without policy intervention.
10. In 1971 Birmingham City Centre was still the dominant regional centre. However, Wolverhampton was the second largest centre, with a comparable number of shops and a turnover of more than 60% of that of Birmingham. The Black Country comprised a dense network of centres, collectively achieving a comparable turnover to the combined turnover of Birmingham, Solihull and Sutton Coldfield. Within the Black Country, there was a clear hierarchy, dominated by Wolverhampton, with Walsall, Dudley and West Bromwich each performing a significant, and complementary but lower order function.
11. As a consequence of population and economic decline, and wider economic trends, the position of all the Black Country Centres has been eroded over the last 30 years. Compounded by the
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development of Merry Hill, the current network of centres shows a radical change; in retail terms Merry Hill has overtaken Wolverhampton as the largest shopping centre, Wolverhampton’s turnover is now only circa 20% that of Birmingham. Walsall, and in particular Dudley and West Bromwich have all witnessed significant and continuing decline in relative terms.
THE CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT AND KEY TRENDS
12. We have examined current market trends in the retail, service, leisure, office and housing sectors, to examine the implications for the future pattern of development within the Black Country Centres.
13. Retailing, and in particular comparison retailing, underpins the function of most major centres and has seen sustained growth with renewed interest in town centre development reinforced by the current national policy context. However, the out of centre market has continued to gain market share at the expense of traditional high streets, and growth in new comparison based development is increasingly polarising towards major schemes in a smaller number of large centres.
14. Continuing structural changes in the convenience and services sector have particular implications for smaller town and district/local centres. As the main food superstore operators increase their market share and diversify into everyday non food goods and services, large food superstores increasingly define and underpin the network of town and district centres.
15. In the commercial leisure sector, changing social and demographic trends and increased personal disposable income will fuel sustained growth in mainstream commercial leisure activities, including cinemas, bars, restaurants and post deregulation, significant additional investment in the gambling and entertainment industry. As a consequence of market trends and policy, many main stream leisure activities, including the cinema, are increasingly returning to traditional town centre locations.
16. Birmingham is the dominant city centre office market in the West Midlands; outside the city centre much of the recent and current development is taking place in strategically located out of centre office parks. None of the traditional Black Country Centres has a significant office market at present, the main concentration of ‘in centre’ office development in the Black Country is at Waterfront at Brierley Hill. This is the only genuinely strategic office location in the Black Country.
17. Our review of current market trends indicates that a significant demand for city living, in generally high density mixed use city centre and edge of centre locations, particularly building on the historic character and waterfront locations provided in many of the Black Country Centres. It is equally apparent that attracting generally more affluent and younger people to live within city
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centres serves to strengthen their immediate catchment profile and create additional demand for retail and leisure uses. It also extends the diversity of the centre and reinforces the evening economy.
18. Based on the current market, and demographic profile of the Black Country, we can expect to see sustained growth in city living in Wolverhampton and, over time, in Walsall, Dudley and the wider Brierley Hill area. We consider the scope to attract significant city living as part of the sustainable mix of uses within West Bromwich Town Centre is likely to be more dependent on the changing nature of its catchment, and its retail and leisure function and improving market perceptions of the area as a place to live.
THE SUB-REGION TODAY
19. Independent in-centre surveys have been commissioned to provide an objective means of identifying the full extent of the Black Country Centres combined catchment area. Surveys were undertaken in Wolverhampton, West Bromwich, Walsall and Merry Hill. Drawing on this analysis we defined a household survey area, comprising 54 Zones and incorporating the Black Country and catchment areas beyond, to examine the sphere of influence of the Black Country Centres and competing strategic centres in the sub-region.
20. Our findings highlight the dominance of Birmingham. The City has the largest shopping population and floorspace, the highest retail rank position, retail rents, retailer requirements, and non-retail facilities. Birmingham draws a higher proportion of trade from the study area than any of the Black Country strategic centres, and has increased its market share at the expense of the Black Country Centres, providing a graphic illustration of the ongoing polarisation of retail activity to fewer, larger centres. This influence is set to increase in the future with the second phase of Martineau Galleries and other proposed retail schemes in the city centre.
21. After Birmingham, Solihull, Sutton Coldfield and Telford are the Black Country’s main competing centres. Each centre has recently strengthened its town centre retail offer, and there are proposals for further development. However, having reviewed the scale and form of development envisaged, with the possible exception of Telford, these are unlikely to have any material impact on the Black Country Centres. Again, in practice the potential exists to increase the market share of the Black Country Centres in the western part of the study area to reduce the outflow evident from our household survey.
22. Redditch, Stafford, Lichfield, Tamworth, Kidderminster and Cannock have a more limited influence on the study area and as far as we are aware, there are no major plans to substantially enhance provision in the future. Our analysis suggests each serves a relatively discreet catchment area. Recent and planned improvements in these centres are likely to do no more than retain current market shares.
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23. Apart from the challenge posed by the continued growth of Birmingham as a dominant retail destination, and the more localised impact of the planned expansion of Telford, we do not consider that the other strategic centres, and development proposals in the sub-region pose any particular threat to the long term role of the Black Country centres. On the contrary, the Black Country Centres have the opportunity to improve their market shares within the study area, and begin to reverse the steady decline of the last few years. However, this will only be achieved if provision is made for new development of sufficient scale and quality to compete effectively with the city centre.
CAPACITY PROJECTIONS 2001-31
24. For forecasting purposes, we consider it is realistic to assume that the Black Country Centres retain their current market share. Given the right scale and quality of development i.e. large scale schemes anchored by quality department stores and other attractive retailers not present in the Black Country Centres, it may be possible to increase their combined market size. Conversely, if insufficient new development is planned in the Black Country to keep up with forecast capacity, it will result in continued relative decline of the centres combined market share (although the stronger/larger centres like Brierley Hill will be more resilient than the smaller weaker ones).
25. We have undertaken economic capacity projections for key town centre uses, notably comparison retail and leisure, and reviewed the conclusions of GHK in respect of commercial office requirements. In each case we have examined global capacity based on current population/economic trends, and then assuming population and spending assumptions in line with the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) targets.
26. In the comparison sector, total comparison expenditure is projected to increase from £4.38 billion in 2004 to £12.83 billion in 2031 based on previous trends. In the growth scenario, total expenditure is expected to increase to over £15 billion by 2031 i.e. total growth of more than 300%. After allowing for 2.5% growth in efficiency of existing comparison retail floorspace, we estimate capacity of circa 370,000sq m gross by 2031 in the trendline scenario, and circa 578,000sq m gross in the growth scenario.
27. After allowing for current commitments/major policy proposals in the strategic centres and assuming a constant market share, this still leaves a residual capacity of circa 136,000sq m gross by 2031 in the trendline, and circa 344,000sq m gross in the growth scenario. We consider the baseline projections are likely to be conservative, and the growth scenario may be optimistic, but in accordance with the instructions of the Steering Group, have adopted the growth scenario for the purposes of defining the centres strategy.
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28. These projections have significant implications for the centres strategy. They provide the first robust assessment of strategic shopping needs, and indicate that even assuming the development of all current commitments/proposals (including expansion of Brierley Hill) there will be a shortfall in provision by 2021 and a significant failure to meet the shopping needs of the Black Country by 2031.
29. Failure to make adequate provision for the scale and quality of comparison shopping needed is likely to result in continued decline in the combined market share of the Black Country Centres. Within the Black Country, we expect the dominant centres of Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill will maintain and enhance their position, but overall without significant additional development in the Black Country we expect the pattern of relative decline evident over the last 30 years would continue.
30. Total expenditure on leisure goods in the Black Country is currently £1.48 billion, and predicted to increase to £2.34 billion by 2031, an overall growth of £866m or about 58% in the trendline scenario. In the growth scenario, total leisure expenditure is predicted to increase by circa £1.2 billion or 81%. Within these global estimates the main commercial leisure elements which are potentially of strategic significance and likely to underpin plans for the centres are cinemas and, following deregulation of the gaming industry, the potential for one or more major regional casinos within the Black Country.
31. In our trendline scenario we estimate a current capacity for circa 14 cinema screens within the Black Country, increasing to 57 by 2031. The effect of population growth in the H1 scenarios is to generate an indicative requirement for 71 screens, although we consider this scenario is optimistic. On any basis, we anticipate significant potential to incorporate further cinema provision to meet identified deficiencies e.g. Walsall/West Bromwich, and supplement existing facilities in all the strategic centres.
32. At present, the casino market in the Black Country is limited, with an estimated current expenditure of only £15m which is broadly consistent with the existing provision of 5 casinos in Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich. However, the effect of population growth and deregulation suggests the casino sector will increase to circa £199m by 2031 in the trendline scenario, and over £220m in the H1 scenario, suggesting scope for additional provision including potentially up to two regional scale casinos within the Black Country over this period.
33. In the restaurant/café sector, in the baseline scenario we estimate growth of circa 60% in the Black Country market. The growth scenario indicates 80% growth in this sector, which, coupled with an increasingly affluent population, will sustain significant growth in the scale and quality of eating/drinking facilities within both the strategic and other defined Black Country Centres. While there is no generally accepted basis on which to translate this capacity into floorspace
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requirements, the scale of growth and increased affluence in the H1 scenario suggests a radical transformation in the character of the Black Country Centres.
34. There is no generally accepted methodology for identifying ‘cultural capacity’, i.e. the opportunities for theatre, art, galleries, museums etc. However, the transformation of the Black Country economy and scale of growth anticipated in the H1 scenario suggests significant growth in the sectors, focussed principally in the strategic centres.
35. In these circumstances we consider the primary consideration should be to make adequate provision for meeting defined ‘higher order’ comparison needs in the strategic Black Country Centres, to begin to address the relative decline of the last 30 years and provide the essential catalyst for growth and investment in the strategic centres. In order to meet comparison shopping needs, it will be necessary to increase the capacity of existing centres and it may be necessary to safeguard key expansion opportunities from alternative uses if the scale of development required is to be met in defined centres.
36. The initial GHK Economic Study indicated a global requirement for circa 900,000 sq m net of additional new office floorspace in defined centres in the period up to 2031 in order to deliver their ‘new economy’ scenario. Based on the past three years take up in the Black Country of 37,000 sq m total, (mainly comprising used stock) this scale of new development is ambitious. In the light of the more recent capacity work undertaken by GHK/GVA Grimley there is substantial physical capacity although this occurs mainly outside what we would regard as the town centre boundaries.
37. Accommodating the combined scale of forecast requirements for retail, leisure and office provision, together with associated cultural facilities and the needs for new residential development represents a significant challenge for the defined strategic centres. This is evident from the emerging conclusions of the Employment and Housing Capacity Studies. These indicate that in order to generate sufficient capacity to meet the growth scenarios which underpin the Black Country Vision, it will be necessary to look beyond the strategic centres, but highlight the need to prepare detailed masterplans for those centres to better understand their capacity.
DEFINING THE NETWORK OF CENTRES
38. Based on our detailed audit of all the defined Black Country Town Centres, it is evident that for the most part the traditional town and district centres are still adapting and responding to wider retail trends and the legacy of the Black Country’s industrial past. While a number of centres appear likely to continue to experience decline, for the most part these centres have begun to adapt to a new largely convenience and local services based function, generally anchored by one or more foodstores with a range of key service and community uses. Their comparison retail function is generally limited to a ‘value based’ offer targeted at their local catchment.
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39. With the scale of expenditure growth forecast within the sub-region, and the increase in population and per capita expenditure likely to arise as a consequence of the RPG strategy, we expect further opportunities will emerge to reinforce the role of the existing network of centres, and in particular to improve the quality of the retail offer, increase demand for local services, and a significantly enhanced leisure and eating and drinking offer.
40. However, of the centres examined, we consider only five could currently be described as performing a strategic function. Wolverhampton remains the dominant city centre, with significant scope for further expansion and a potential to accommodate forecast capacity for higher order comparison retail, leisure and office uses and other key town centre cultural functions. Equally, Walsall has the potential to maintain and enhance its position and develop its role further as a strategic town centre.
41. In the case of Dudley, as a consequence of its size and traditional function, at the current time it could still be regarded as having a strategic role, with scope for further significant convenience based retail and leisure development. However, its ability to regain its former role as the strategic comparison retail, office or leisure destination for the Borough has been overshadowed by the Brierley Hill area which performs a dominant retail, commercial leisure and offices function serving a sub-regional catchment.
42. There has been significant debate concerning the relative role and status of Dudley and Brierley Hill. Based on the key town centre uses (retail/offices/leisure), Brierley Hill already functions as a ‘strategic’ centre. This is evident from our in centre and household surveys, and the scale of existing provision in the centre. However, the centre does not have the level of public transport accessibility and modal split associated with a higher order town centre. This is a key precondition to further growth.
43. Based on its current role and future potential, and in particular its relative ability to contribute to meeting the region’s strategic retail/office and leisure needs, we consider Brierley Hill warrants designation as a strategic centre. Our capacity projections indicate that without the scale of new development planned at Brierley Hill, there will be a significant shortfall against forecast needs which will not be matched by opportunities in any other Black Country Centre.
44. However, the further expansion of Brierley Hill needs to be considered as part of a clearly articulated strategy, which defines complementary roles for the centre and traditional town centres (including Dudley), matches the phasing of new development with identified capacity and economic growth, and secures necessary improvements to the accessibility of the centre to enable it to genuinely function as a strategic town centre.
45. Based on its current function, West Bromwich would not warrant designation as a strategic centre in retail, leisure, employment or cultural terms. However, the scale of new cultural, retail and
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leisure development currently underway and further improvements planned in the centre offer the potential to begin the process of re-establishing West Bromwich to its former status within the Black Country network of centres, particularly having regard to the combined potential of the West Bromwich/Oldbury area as a potential growth node centred around the motorway and strategic rail network.
STRATEGIC POLICY OPTIONS
46. Whichever growth scenario is developed for the strategic Black Country Centres, it needs to make provision for significant expansion of the defined centres even to accommodate trend based retail/leisure needs. It also needs to balance aspirations for offices, residential, education/health care and other potential ‘town centre uses’ if the strategic centres are to meet even the retail needs of the sub-region up to 2031 and beyond.
47. We have examined a series of alternative policy options for the spatial distribution of forecast shopping and other strategic requirements. On every key indicator examined, a strategy for a more balanced distribution of forecast growth between four strategic centres; Wolverhampton, Walsall, Brierley Hill and West Bromwich, provides the best fit against national, regional and local policy objectives, and is supported by the four Boroughs and key stakeholders.
48. This option is achievable, having regard to market and capacity considerations; it maximises the potential to accommodate strategic shopping and other functions within the Black Country; and provides the most sustainable network of ‘higher order’ centres to supplement the more localised role of the other town and district centres in the sub-region. However, the scale of new development supportable in each centre, and phasing of delivery, depends on population and economic growth assumptions.
49. We are confident, even in the trend based scenario, that a ‘four centres’ option is realistic, and there will be sufficient capacity in the retail and commercial leisure sector to underpin expansion and, where required, step change in the function of these centres. The emerging conclusions of the Employment and Housing Capacity Studies show that the strategic centres will make some contribution to housing/employment needs, the full extent of which needs to be explored through detailed masterplans. However, it is evident that to meet the growth aspirations of the Black Country Vision a significant proportion of housing and employment needs will have to be met outside the strategic centres.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGY
50. We have developed a strategy for the strategic centres which adopts the consensus of support for the ‘four centres strategy’, and adopts the growth assumptions which underpin the Black
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Country Vision. Clearly if these assumptions prove unrealistic this strategy would need to be reviewed.
51. Adopting these assumptions, we consider the regional spatial strategy should define a network of four strategic centres; Wolverhampton, Walsall, Brierley Hill and West Bromwich. The role of Wolverhampton and Walsall is uncontentious, although both centres will need to expand their retail core significantly beyond their current aspirations to meet the needs identified.
52. We consider it will be essential to realise the capacity which exists for further retail, office and housing development at Brierley Hill in order to meet the growth aspirations for the Black Country. On this basis, the strategy should support the current proposals, subject to detailed testing and in particular, serving appropriate measures to improve accessibility. Thereafter, we anticipate further retail/leisure growth should be resisted until the strategy for step change in the retail/leisure offer of the other strategic centres notably Walsall and West Bromwich, has been secured.
53. Achieving the necessary step change in the role of West Bromwich represents the most ambitious and most challenging aspect of the strategy. However, in the growth scenario tested, we anticipate capacity for significant strategic comparison retail development, of circa 50,000 sq m gross over and above current aspirations by 2021-31, and capacity for further strategic leisure development, potentially incorporating a regional scale casino/resort, and major office development building on the centres strategic motorway/main line rail links.
54. Our capacity projections incorporate significant capacity for the continued organic growth of the non-strategic centres. Their retail function will be underpinned by their convenience and everyday comparison offer, and we anticipate capacity to expand both the scale and quality of offer as their catchment’s grow. Equally, we anticipate increased demand for local services, restaurants/bars and cultural/community facilities. These opportunities will need to be explored as part of the preparation of detailed town centre strategies through the LDF process.
55. While each of the strategic centres will be expected to offer comparable key components i.e. a higher order comparison retail offer, leisure, entertainment/cultural facilities and its own employment base, each will have a distinct character and unique offering; Wolverhampton as a major heritage centre, the traditional capital of the Black Country, with its university and administrative functions; Walsall with its industrial heritage, vibrant evening economy and cultural offer; Brierley Hill as a major shopping and commercial leisure destination; and West Bromwich reborn as a sub-regionally significant retail and commercial leisure centre and providing one of the major office and employment locations in the Black Country.
56. The importance of distinctiveness, and the combined attractiveness of a network of centres, also applies to the non-strategic centres. We expect their more localised every day functions will be
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supplemented by the emergence of niche, specialist functions, and ’one off’ facilities where these can be shown to be needed within the sub-region, are consistent with the role of the centre, and cannot realistically be accommodated within or on the edge of the strategic centres which should remain the primary focus for strategic ‘main town centre uses’.
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
57. Subject to the conclusions of the wider West Midlands Study, we consider the early review of RSS should identify a network of four strategic centres in the Black Country.
58. The RSS should support the continued expansion of Wolverhampton and Walsall, supporting the implementation of current planned initiatives by 2011, and support further strategic growth of both centres to meet identified needs up to 2031. This needs to include provision for circa 50,000sq m gross of additional comparison retail floorspace and associated leisure facilities in each, which will underpin expansion of both core areas.
59. RSS should identify West Bromwich as a strategic centre serving the Black Country sub- region. In addition to supporting the current strategy, RSS should provide the strategic framework for the Council/Regenco to prepare a development framework for expansion of the centre as a major comparison, retail, leisure, residential and employment centre.
60. RSS should identify Brierley Hill as a strategic centre, and support the current initiatives for expansion of comparison retail, leisure, offices and residential uses, subject to meeting preconditions for accessibility for alternative means of transport/modal split. Beyond the current aspirations, the centre has the potential for significant further growth, but this should be dependant on the pace of economic growth and progress towards achieving the necessary scale of investment in the other defined centres.
61. The RSS should make it clear that in the case of non-strategic centres, it is the role of individual LDFs to set out strategies to sustain and enhance each centre, in line with the strategic growth assumptions which underpin the Black County strategy. Policies for non-strategic centres should only support provision of facilities serving a wider sub- regional role where there is a clearly defined need which cannot be met within or on the edge of a strategic centre.
62. This strategy is based on ambitious population and expenditure growth assumptions and an assumed distribution of growth between the four centres and corridors. It is critical that a robust assessment the scale and distribution of housing development and employment provision is completed in order prepare more robust assessments for the scale of growth and opportunities within each centre, and that the strategic vision is
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translated into detailed development frameworks/masterplans for each of the strategic centres.
63. In parallel with this process, the development of an effective centres strategy requires a detailed assessment of the transport networks needed to support the existing and expanded population and economic base of the Black County, and to support the scale of expansion of the strategic and non-strategic centres required under the growth scenario.
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1. INTRODUCTION
OUR BRIEF
1.1 GVA Grimley (GVA) and Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) were instructed by the Black Country Consortium in March 2004 to undertake the Study of Black Country Centres. The objective of the study is to identify a strategy for the future development and regeneration of the strategic centres in the Black Country. It will form a key document, together with other related thematic studies covering housing and employment capacity, the economy and transport, to enable the preparation of a Black Country Spatial Framework that will guide the development of the area over the next 30 years.
1.2 In accordance with our proposal for consultancy, we have adopted a staged approach to this study, which has been undertaken in parallel with a number of other thematic studies. Stage 1 comprised preparation of technical papers on a range of issues including retail/leisure trends, reviewing existing documentation and the policy context. This stage also included a review of the existing role of centres and baseline economic assessment, drawing on extensive ‘in centre’ and household surveys.
1.3 The baseline analysis includes a detailed review of the policy framework at national and regional level, and explores the concept of a polycentric framework for the Black Country. We have undertaken an historical perspective of changes which have taken place in the network of Black Country Centres over the last thirty years, and reviewed the current market context and a comprehensive assessment of the region today, including the role of centres outside the Black Country, and in particular the role of Birmingham City Centre.
1.4 Building on this baseline position, Stage 2 of our Brief entails developing strategic policy options for the network of Black Country Centres, based on different population economic growth assumptions and strategic policy interventions. This analysis draws on an extensive review of all the Black Country Centres, and an up to date assessment of economic capacity for retail, leisure and other key town centre uses in order to test the overall scale of development supportable, and alternative options for a distributing growth. This stage involved identifying broad strategic options as a basis for testing and consultation to determine a shared vision for the defined centres.
1.5 Originally, this study was intended to be undertaken in parallel with other detailed thematic studies dealing with transportation, housing and the economy. As such, it was intended that the option generation stage and preparation of the detailed strategy for the centres would be
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informed by a robust assessment of the scale and location of new housing development, a clearly defined economic strategy identifying the scale, form and location of new employment generation (and as such realistic expectations of household expenditure within the study area) and an effective transportation model to assess accessibility and the sustainability of alternative options for the distribution of strategic and other centres.
1.6 None of these studies have reached a sufficiently advanced stage to provide a clear and robust basis for developing our detailed centre strategy. Collectively, these factors will have a significant bearing on the role, scale and form of new development supportable in defined strategic and other centres. Equally, fundamental decisions concerning the distribution of office and employment floorspace, housing requirements and retail/leisure and cultural uses cannot be made with any confidence without a clear understanding of the competing demands and appropriate balance of each. The final strategy should draw on the ongoing housing and employment capacity studies and other thematic studies.
1.7 Notwithstanding these concerns, we have been asked to produce a recommended strategy for a network of defined strategic centres, and to consider in broad terms the role and function of non- strategic centres within the Black Country on the basis of working assumptions on the scale and distribution of new housing growth, and assumptions about economic growth. Specifically, our recommended strategy assumes the current population decline in the Black Country is reversed over the next thirty years with significant population growth, and the economic strategy delivers a new economy with significant growth in household expenditure based not only on current growth trends, but also assuming the current gap between expenditure in the Black Country and the UK average is closed over this timescale.
1.8 Clearly the realism of the centres strategy, and in particular scale and form of new development likely to be needed and distribution of activity across the sub-region will need to be revisited once the other thematic studies have been concluded. In particular, if there is any significant risk that the growth expectations we have been asked to assume will not be fully realised over this timescale, the draft strategy would have to be reviewed.
STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT
1.9 This report draws together the results of this process, incorporating the findings of detailed survey based technical analysis, ongoing discussions with the Steering Group and other key organisations. The report is structured as follows:
In Section 2 we summarise the national policy framework which provides the policy context for the study.
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In Section 3, we review current Regional Planning Guidance, and the key components of the Economic Strategy for the West Midlands.
In Section 4, we develop the policy objectives and themes set out in regional planning guidance to identify the issues involved in creating a truly polycentric framework for the Black Country.
In Section 5 we provide an historical perspective, examining the changes which have taken place in the network of Black Country Centres over the last thirty years and the national and regional factors which contribute to their continued evolution.
In Section 6 we consider the current market context, and in particular the economic and social trends which are likely to influence the evolution of the Black Country Centres over the next thirty years.
In Section 7, we set out a comprehensive assessment of the Black Country sub-region today; the factors which we have taken into account in determining the wider study area, and the context created by the continued growth of Birmingham City Centre and the role of other competing centres beyond the Black Country.
In Section 8 we set out our baseline economic capacity projections for the sub-region, focusing in particular on the capacity for further retail and commercial leisure provision within the study area, having regard to trend line population/expenditure growth assumptions and the effects of alternative projections for population and economic growth.
In Section 9, we examine the network of Black Country Centres, having regard to their current role and future potential, in order to identify which centres have the potential to perform a strategic function and the ability to accommodate forecast retail and leisure capacity and other complementary town centre functions.
In Section 10, based on the outcome of this analysis, we develop and evaluate alternative options for the strategic centres and the implications of alternative policy interventions for the distribution of further retail and commercial leisure development within the Black Country.
In Section 11, we draw out the key issues and conclusions arising from the analysis of Brierley Hill, and its relationship with Dudley and other established centres to develop our recommended strategy.
In Section 12, we develop the recommended strategy for other strategic centres, providing detailed justification for the overall strategy and selection of strategic centres, and indicate the scale and form of development likely to be appropriate in each based on the growth.
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In Section 13, we summarise our key recommendations.
1.10 This report is supported by a series of plans and technical appendices.
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2. NATIONAL POLICY GUIDANCE
2.1 The Government has made it clear that the policies in PPS6 apply to the full range of town centre uses including retail, leisure, commercial and public offices, arts and tourism facilities, community facilities and housing as part of mixed-use multi-storey developments. The policies should be interpreted in the context of the Government’s wider policy aims of promoting social inclusion, regenerating deprived areas, promoting economic growth, delivering more sustainable patterns of development and promoting good design, all of which are set out in PPS1.
2.2 PPS6 confirms that the Government’s key objective is to promote vital and viable town centres by planning for their growth and focussing new development and a wide range of services within them. The Government’s other objectives are to enhance consumer choice, support efficient, competitive and innovative retail and leisure sectors and to improve accessibility by a choice of means of transport.
2.3 The key changes in emphasis of relevance to the centres study are:-
A more proactive approach to accommodating town centre uses in central locations, including where appropriate promotion of the expansion of town centres; and, conversely a realistic approach to the management of decline where justified; and
The need to establish a hierarchy of centres in each region and sub-region, with any change in the role and function of centres to be secured as part of the preparation of regional spatial strategies (RSS) and through preparation of the development plans, rather than through individual applications.
2.4 The more detailed changes in emphasis which are likely to be relevant to the centres study are:
The need to assemble edge-of-centre sites for larger stores where need is identified, and to promote higher density, mixed-use multi-storey development;
The need to encourage a wider range of services and land uses for centres in decline;
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the need to avoid over-concentration of growth in the highest level centres, and for regional spatial strategies to make clear strategic choices as to where growth is to be encouraged and decline managed;
The need to assess the quantitative need for additional floorspace for retail, leisure and office uses over the plan period and for five year periods within it, and the capacity of existing centres to accommodate additional development (in the case of long term, strategic policy guidance, a longer term forecasting horizon is required);
The need to improve public transport to existing out-of-centre facilities, but not as a justification for their extension;
The need for development plans to set out the roles of different centres and explain how each centre will contribute to the local authority’s overall vision for its area;
The need for development plans to encourage a diversification of uses in the town centre as a whole and to promote positive management of the evening economy, perhaps identifying distinct quarters where the evening economy is to be concentrated;
The need for development plans to include policies which guide the appropriate scale of development to be encouraged in the different types of town centres, setting upper limits for the scale of developments that will be allowed in different types of centres;
the need for plans to positively allocate sufficient sites within and at the edge of town centres so as to meet anticipated demand for the next five years, irrespective of whether such sites are currently available and anticipating the use of CPO powers; and
The need to promote a more balanced network of centres by strengthening local centres through preparation of local strategies to remedy deficiencies in local shopping.
SUMMARY
2.5 In the light of the Government’s recent Policy Statement on Town Centres (PPS6) the Black Country authorities’ development plans should anticipate a requirement for a much more proactive approach to the expansion of their main centres, improvements to the range of
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services offered in local centres and managed decline and change in any centres which can no longer realistically hold their place in the retail hierarchy. This requires a shared vision, and a co-ordinated strategy which is clearly articulated in the RSS, and applied at the local level by the four local planning authorities in their Local Development Frameworks (LDFs).
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3. REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDANCE/ECONOMIC STRATEGY
STUDY INTO THE WEST MIDLANDS HIERARCHY OF CENTRES 2001
3.1 Chesterton was commissioned by the West Midlands LGA in November 2000, to explore whether or not a ‘hierarchy of centres’ is a valid vehicle for guiding the future location of retail and associated town centre development within the West Midlands. It was intended that the Study would inform the review of RPG for The West Midlands (RPG11) and assist in the development of policy to guide the management and development of the region’s network of centres.
3.2 Chesterton’s final report, published in May 2001, put forward a number of policy recommendations to be considered as part of the development of regional planning policy guidance. The key policy recommendations were that:
There is a strong case for avoiding a prescriptive hierarchy of established centres within Regional Policy, but regional policy should acknowledge the overall importance of Birmingham City Centre as both a regional capital as well as a major international destination;
In order to facilitate the regeneration of centres, at a regional level all major established centres should be treated equally and not recorded in any form of rank or hierarchy. In addition to Birmingham City Centre, a further 23 centres were identified by Chesterton as constituting the ‘network of centres in the region’ including, within the Black Country, Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton;
Taking account of sustainability considerations, the ’network of centres’ identified should be the focus for new major town centre development, including retailing, leisure, offices, and other uses which attract large numbers of people;
Vulnerable centres within the sphere of Merry Hill should be targeted for quantitative and qualitative improvements;
The development of a Regional Capacity Assessment for future retail or leisure development should not be considered, as such a ‘trend based’ mechanistic approach would be of limited value at the regional level; and
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Town and city centre strategies should be prepared to guide future public and private sector investment in town centres, which recognise both the importance of town centre management and the needs of the socially excluded.
REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS (RPG11) JUNE 2004
3.3 Many of Chesterton’s policy recommendations, including the identification of a network of centres as the focus for future development within the West Midlands, were adopted and form the basis of the retail policies now set out in the recently adopted RPG11. However, the Chesterton Report was criticised from a number of quarters for failing to provide adequate advice on the location, nature and scale of future retail and leisure development to be accommodated within the Region over the period of RPG, and RPG11 acknowledges (paragraph 1.31) that the Guidance is at present insufficiently specific in places.
3.4 Against this background, the Secretary of State (SoS) now requires that the Regional Planning Body (RPB) should undertake further work to inform an early review of RPG11 to identify where major new retail, leisure and office development should be focused in order to achieve the balanced network of centres. The Black Country Centres study is an important part of this ongoing work, the aim being to advise on a broad range of issues that are not elaborated upon in RPG11, including regeneration priorities, the strategic role of town centres and Merry Hill, and town centre improvements.
3.5 RPG11 proposes a fundamental shift in policy direction compared to the 1998 Guidance. This sought to accommodate out-migration from the metropolitan area to towns within the surrounding zone, referred to as the Central Crescent and including the towns of Warwick/Leamington, Stratford, Worcester, Kidderminster/Stourport, Bridgnorth, Telford, Stafford, Lichfield and Tamworth. The commonly held view is that this approach has underperformed on regenerating urban and remoter rural areas, providing affordable housing, and promoting development in the north and west of the Region. In particular, there is a growing concern that the continuing decentralisation of population from the West Midlands and North Staffordshire and Coventry conurbations is threatening the economic, social and physical environment of the Region.
3.6 The aim of the replacement RPG11 is to re-weight the balance in favour of the major urban areas by seeking a step change in investment and regeneration of the urban areas. The long- term vision for the West Midlands Region is defined in Chapter 2 of RPG11, within the Government’s overarching aim of achieving sustainable development, as set out below:
‘The overall vision for the West Midlands is one of an economically successful, outward looking and adaptable Region, which is rich in culture and environment, where all people, working together, are able to meet
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their aspirations and needs without prejudicing the quality of life of future generations.’
3.7 RPG11 identifies four major challenges for the Region:
Urban renaissance – developing the major urban areas in such a way that they reverse the decentralisation of jobs and people from the major urban areas;
Rural renaissance – addressing more effectively the major changes which are challenging the traditional roles of rural areas and the countryside;
Diversifying and modernising the Region’s economy, reversing the long term pattern of relative decline; and
Modernising the transport infrastructure of the West Midlands to support the sustainable development of the Region.
3.8 RPG11 identifies four major urban areas (MUAs) within the Region which are to be the main focus of urban renaissance and the regional priority for development and investment. The MUAs are the major economic driver and source of employment opportunities for the Region and contain over half its population. The central aim of the RPG is to reverse decentralisation from these areas to the more rural parts of the Region. The role of each MUA is set out below:
Birmingham – strengthening its role as the regional capital with emerging world city status;
The Black Country – continuing its economic, physical and environmental renewal focused around improved infrastructure and the regeneration of town and city centres (including Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton) in order to create modern and sustainable communities;
Coventry – continuing to build upon its reputation as a forward looking City, which along with Solihull and Warwickshire, can help create an important growth engine for the Region with links to the growing parts of the South East and East Midlands regions; and
North Staffordshire – building upon its traditional strengths of ceramics and engineering but realising its potential as an accessible location with good links to the East Midlands and the North West.
3.9 RPG11 aims, through its Spatial Strategy, to achieve the ‘urban renaissance’ in the four MUAs by the creation of development opportunities – to retain and attract people and
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investment – through a balanced network of vital and vibrant town and city centres as the strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments.
3.10 Policy UR3: ‘Enhancing the role of City, Town and District Centres’ recognises that city, town and district centres, and in particular, those centres identified in the network of town and city centres in Policy PA11, should be enhanced to play a leading role in the Region’s urban renaissance, as drivers of economic growth. UR3 states that this will be achieved by (inter- alia) developing place-specific strategies that promote their sense of identity and local distinctiveness.
3.11 The success of the Region’s economy is also clearly critical to the success of the RPG’s Spatial Strategy. The aspiration to achieve a step change in its economic performance centres on three main mechanisms:
The identification of regeneration zones;
High technology corridors; and
A network of strategic town and city centres.
3.12 Policy PA11 identifies a network of 25 strategic town and city centres across the Region (Plan 1) which are to be the focus for major retail, leisure and office developments, including Walsall, West Bromwich, Dudley and Wolverhampton. RPG11 does not set out a formal hierarchy of roles for the centres, other than identifying Birmingham as the regional capital and an international city (Policy PA12). Instead the role of the centres is meant to be complementary, within the ‘polycentric’ concept1 which we examine in the next section. Ten centres in the network within the MUAs – including Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton – have a “key role” to play in achieving urban renaissance. A number of centres, including Dudley and West Bromwich, are highlighted as being “particularly vulnerable”.
3.13 The strategic town and city centres are intended to be the focus for major new retail developments (that is, those with gross floorspace of 10,000 sq m and above, excluding floorspace dedicated to the retailing of convenience goods), and large-scale leisure and office developments (that is, those with a gross floorspace of 5,000sq m and above). To support this focus, Policy PA13 does not envisage a requirement during the period covered by RPG for any further large-scale (10,000sq m gross) out-of-centre retail developments or extensions to existing developments.
1 As put forward in ‘A Polycentric Framework for the West Midlands’ (Ecotec, 2000).
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3.14 RPG11 recognises Merry Hill as a regional shopping destination, which may have the potential to assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country, but notes that this regeneration role must be balanced with the regeneration needs of other strategic and vulnerable centres. RPG11 states that the RPB should reach a strategic view on the following:
Regeneration priorities within the region/Black Country sub-region;
The balance between centres, in particular which centres in the region/sub-region should be the focus for major growth to assist their regeneration; and then
The role of Merry Hill and, if appropriate, the timing of any future large-scale development there.
3.15 Thus, whilst not pre-determining the findings of the further, ongoing strategic work to determine the long-term locational and spatial retail needs of the region/sub-region, RPG11 strongly suggests that significant development at Merry Hill is only likely to be acceptable following the exhaustion of development opportunities within the strategic and vulnerable town and city centres.
WEST MIDLANDS ECONOMIC STRATEGY 2004-2010
3.16 The West Midlands Economic Strategy (RES) – Creating Advantage – was approved in January 2004. The RES was first published in 1999 and the 2004 version updates the strategy up to 2010. Both the 1999 and updated Strategy share the same approach, which is based on a vision that: -
“The West Midlands will be recognised as a world class region in which to invest, work, study, visit and live and the most successful in creating wealth to benefit all of its people.”
3.17 The delivery of the RES is closely aligned with the West Midlands Objective Two Programme whose priorities – developing a diverse and dynamic business base, creating the conditions for growth, and regenerating communities – coincide with the elements of the core strategy of the RES. Moreover, the updated RES was prepared in parallel with RPG and the provisions of the two documents are complementary and mutually reinforcing, particularly in relation to the theme of ‘urban renaissance’.
3.18 The strategy in the recently adopted RES is based on the same four “pillars” of activity that underpinned the 1999 Strategy: -
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Developing a diverse and dynamic business base – supporting enterprise and innovation and securing inward investment to establish, retain and grow more businesses in the West Midlands.
Promoting a learning and skilful region – raising skills levels to ensure the workforce meets the needs of present and potential employers in the region.
Creating the conditions for growth – securing improvements to the region’s transport, communication and infrastructure to support the development of a diverse and dynamic business base.
Regenerating Communities in the West Midlands – focusing resources in places of greatest needs to ensure that communities enjoy a better quality of life.
3.19 In order to provide the necessary focus for action, the RES sets out three key mechanisms through which the Strategy will be delivered:
Six regeneration zones (five urban and one rural);
High technology corridors; and
The adoption of a business cluster strategy.
3.20 The Regeneration Zones (RZs) encompass areas of high unemployment and multiple deprivation regarding income, employment, health, education, housing and child poverty. The RZs, which are not based on local government administrative boundaries, are an attempt to overcome the perceived weaknesses of past regeneration initiatives where there was a lack of connectivity and confusion between the priorities and activities of policy interventions. The strategy of the RZ is therefore to adopt an integrated approach to these problems and avoid dealing with the issues in isolation.
3.21 Each Zone has a Partnership Board comprising public, private and voluntary sector representation. Zone Implementation Plans, which set out the strategies for the next three year period (2003-2006) and are updated annually, have been adopted for each Zone.
3.22 The South Black Country and West Birmingham (SBCWB) ‘Arc of Opportunity’ RZ is the largest of the six West Midlands Zones, with a population of nearly half a million people. The Zone cuts across three local authority areas, taking in the western region of Birmingham City Centre and the surrounding area, much of Sandwell MBC and a substantial part of Dudley MBC, including Brierley Hill.
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3.23 The SBCWB Zone faces the largest challenge in terms of socio-economic conditions but is also characterised by a string of development opportunities stretching in an arc from Birmingham to Dudley. The strategic objectives of the Zone are to:
Support the urban renaissance of key strategic centres providing opportunities for sustainable economic development and an attractive urban environment;
Capitalise on a small number of significant business opportunities based on attractive locations whilst enhancing the prospects for growth of businesses as a whole; and
Improve the social fabric of the Zone, including improving access to employment opportunities.
3.24 Key development projects within the SBCWB Zone to achieve these strategic priorities that have particular relevance to the Black Country include:
Improvements to Brierley Hill Town Centre, concentrating on the land assembly required to deliver 46,470 sq ft of space at the Waterfront Business Park;
Regeneration of Dudley Town Centre and Castle Hill, including production of a development framework for Dudley town centre. For Castle Hill, the emphasis is on land and property assembly; and
Regeneration of West Bromwich Town Centre, including the C/PLEX development which will provide a new interactive cultural and educational attraction, acting as the catalyst for regeneration of the town centre.
3.25 Part of the SBCWB Zone is covered by Sandwell Housing Market Renewal Area. This is one of the nine Pathfinder areas established to address the problems of low housing demand and abandonment within parts of the country. A further mechanism to drive the regeneration of part of the Zone is the Sandwell Urban Regeneration Company, which is the agency responsible for leading the regeneration of the Hill Top, West Bromwich Town Centre and North Smethwick areas.
3.26 The Walsall, Wolverhampton and South Staffordshire (WWSS) ‘Future Foundations’ RZ has an estimated population of 291,000 and has the lowest Gross Domestic Product of all six RZs. The vision for the WWSS Zone is set out below:
“The North Black Country will be a recognised sub-region of ambition, innovation, diversity, knowledge and inclusion.”
3.27 Key development projects within the Zone include:
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Substantial physical improvements to Walsall Town Centre, Wolverhampton City Centre and, in particular, Bilston Urban Village;
The promotion of Wolverhampton as a city where new sectors based on knowledge, learning and technology can flourish, developing an environment where people enjoy high quality cultural and visitor attractions together with urban living; and
The establishment of an Urban Regeneration Company in Walsall as the delivery mechanism for regeneration of parts of the town. New mixed use projects will be promoted, with particular focus on the Walsall Waterfront opportunity, which builds upon and complements the Walsall Art Gallery.
SUMMARY
3.28 The study of the West Midlands hierarchy of centres undertaking in 2001 concluded that regional guidance should avoid a prescriptive hierarchy of established centres but acknowledge the overall importance of Birmingham City Centre. The study identified a network of 23 major centres including Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton as the focus for new retail, leisure, office and other uses which attract large numbers of people, and recommended that town and city centre strategies should be prepared to guide future public and private sector investment.
3.29 RPG11 proposes a fundamental shift in policy direction to the previous guidance, to reverse the pattern of decentralisation of population from the Black Country and seek step change in investment and regeneration of the urban areas. The focus of the Black Country is on continuing economic, physical and environmental renewal and improved infrastructure and regeneration of the town and city centres.
3.30 RPG identifies Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton to have a key role to play in achieving urban renaissance and identifies Dudley and West Bromwich as being particularly vulnerable. It recognises Merry Hill as a regional shopping destination which may assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country, but this role and the timing of any future large scale development need to be addressed by the RPB in the light of the Black Country Study.
3.31 The West Midlands economic strategy identifies regeneration zones which include Brierley Hill, Dudley, West Bromwich, Walsall and Wolverhampton and key initiatives are identified and being brought forward in each centre.
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4. TOWARDS A POLYCENTRIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS
4.1 The notion of ‘polycentricity’ in urban planning dates back to the beginning of the Twentieth Century; it has embraced a variety of meanings at different times and has been applied to an array of spatial scales. However, the contemporary interpretation of the term derives from its usage in the European Spatial Development Perspective – ESDP (1999) which promotes the polycentricity concept as a socio-economic policy goal.
4.2 In the ESDP the European Commission raises concerns that the local communities and regions of the European Union (EU) are not automatically converging into a regionally balanced territory. The Commission consequently urges that greater attention should be paid to spatial development priorities, including development of polycentric and balanced urban systems to strengthen the partnership between urban and rural areas and between cities. The polycentric model should also incorporate the promotion of integrated transport and communication concepts, to support the integration of the regions and cities into one economic system. The overall aim of polycentric development is ‘to create balanced and sustainable development’.
4.3 The European Commission has set the goal to create a polycentric settlement structure across the whole territory of the EU. To establish a balanced settlement structure, ways and procedures are to be found to enable cities and regions to complement and co-operate with each other. This is to be applied to the EU at transnational level, but also applies to city networks at the national and regional level.
4.4 Promoting complementarity between cities and regions means simultaneously building on the advantages and overcoming the disadvantages of economic competition between them. However, complementarity is not to focus solely on economic competition but is to be expanded to all urban functions, including culture, education and knowledge, and social infrastructure. The policy pursued ought to encourage effective co-operation between cities and a pre-requisite to building a polycentric network is to establish the equal rights of all partners.
4.5 The development of an effective polycentric network also relies on urban centres being efficiently linked to one another as well as to their respective hinterland. Efficient transport and adequate access to telecommunications are a basic prerequisite for strengthening the competitive situation of regions and for building wider social and economic cohesion.
4.6 To focus on the regional level, the concept revolves around the creation of polycentric urban regions (PURs). These contain two or more cities which have a different but complementary
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specialisation, for example: education, financial services, transport provision, or administration. The cities will function and interact with each other to the extent that they operate within a wider economy rather than separately. Each city within the PUR will take a role which best suits its asset base and will then serve this market. Each city will not solely focus on this function, and will still meet the variety of needs of its immediate catchment (housing, shopping, personal services, etc).
4.7 Conceptualising polycentricity at this level is still, at an early stage of development but can be broadly defined as ‘a region with a number of cities without hierarchical ranking in reasonable proximity and with functional interconnection’’ (Simon Davoudi, 2002).
POLYCENTRICITY IN THE WEST MIDLANDS CONTEXT
4.8 Ecotec’s report, ‘A Polycentric Framework for the West Midlands’ helped to inform the approach to polycentricity taken in RPG11. Ecotec’s analysis involved a new approach to defining ‘places’, rather than including places in the network based on their size. Ecotec first established a list of 22 important functions, and then mapped the locations where the functions were performed and ‘places’ were subsequently defined according to functional locations. Thus places populated by 500 people could now compete with those inhabited by 500,000 people in a polycentric network if their functions were equally as developed.
4.9 Ecotec’s analysis revealed the functional complexity of the West Midlands, represented through its depiction on Plans 2 and 3. Ecotec concluded that this functional distribution should provide an important building block for creating a polycentric arrangement in the Region, on which future policy can be based. The analysis can be used to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the current structure of the Region, and provides a starting-point for assessing whether there are ‘any particular functions, or linkages between functions that are absent or under developed, which could act as catalysts to improve the overall performance of the Region’.
4.10 The polycentric model is seen as part of the wider strategy to deliver an urban renaissance in the West Midlands and RPG suggests that developing complementary roles between centres will ‘reduce the areas of wasteful competition between them so that the overall performance of the Region’s centres exceeds the sum of its individual centres’. In order to establish a vision of how such a polycentric framework for the West Midlands and the Black Country Centres would work in practice, it is necessary at the outset to determine an appropriate role and function for the regional centre i.e. Birmingham, ‘strategic centres’ and other i.e. local/district centres.
4.11 In the Black Country context, this translates into an appropriate network of local/district centre facilities, catering for ‘everyday’ convenience and local services needs across the whole Black Country area; a network of ‘higher order’ or strategic centres each providing key comparison shopping, retail, cultural and other facilities serving their own discreet catchment populations; and
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identification of other, sub-regional scale facilities which may not be sustainable in each of the strategic centres, but which could form an additional element of one or more strategic centres in order to strengthen the overall range and quality of facilities available to residents living in the Black Country.
4.12 The West Midlands can only sustain one truly regional capital i.e. Birmingham, which will contain the major share of higher order retailing, culture, government, financial and business services, higher education and regional facilities e.g. convention centres, all of which interrelate to support a rich mix of specialist and niche services. Where the region can support just one facility e.g. a major international concert hall or convention centre, Birmingham is the obvious location offering the maximum accessibility to international, national and regional catchments alike. It is in the interest of the Black Country and the West Midlands as a whole to have a strong regional centre.
4.13 Below Birmingham, a decision needs to be taken whether to identify one or more sub-regional centres (e.g. Wolverhampton in the case of the Black Country) or a less hierarchical network of strategic centres each serving a relatively self contained catchment. Having regard to national and regional planning guidance and the current distribution of centres across the Black Country, we consider the RPG11 approach, which defines a network of principal or strategic town centres, is more consistent with a truly polycentric model.
4.14 The purpose and defining economic role of strategic centres will be to serve most of the regular needs of their natural catchments for shopping, culture, leisure, entertainment, recreation and further education and to some extent higher education. They will also be employment centres for office based activity containing the kinds of businesses which cannot or do not want to pay Birmingham rents and which can function well from a lower order town centre, together with the business services which exist to service each centres domestic catchment.
4.15 Adopting this approach, below the regional function of Birmingham City Centre there would be a defined network of strategic centres each containing a viable mix of retail, leisure, office and other traditional town centre functions. Adopting a polycentric approach, none of these centres would be dominant in terms of overall hierarchy, but the approach envisages that certain functions would benefit the Black Country as a whole e.g. universities, may only be viable concentrated in a single centre. Equally, this model does not preclude development of individual specialist and niche functions in each centre, reflecting their heritage and unique characteristics.
4.16 Below this network of ‘strategic’ centres, smaller other town and district centres would supply the day to day needs of their immediate catchments. Typically these centres will contain one or more foodstores, local convenience goods and services and a more limited range of ‘everyday’ comparison durable goods together with local business services and leisure and entertainment facilities.
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4.17 In the remainder of this report, we test this theoretical model and its application to the Black Country Centres, by examining the existing hierarchy and network of centres, identifying the core and additional functions likely to be appropriate to a defined network of strategic centres across the Black Country, and testing the consequences of different policy interventions on the development of the existing network of strategic and other centres over the next 30 years.
SUMMARY
4.18 The RPG strategy for the West Midlands advocates a polycentric framework of centres. Polycentricity can be broadly defined as a region with a number of cities without hierarchical ranking in reasonable proximity and with functional interconnection.
4.19 In the West Midlands context, Birmingham City Centre will remain the dominant, regional centre; the region as a whole and the Black Country in particular, all directly benefit from the success of the city centre which will continue to be the focus for regional scale activity. However, this does not necessarily preclude options to increase the market share of the Black Country Centres relative to Birmingham City Centre.
4.20 Below the regional centre, a polycentric network of strategic centres provides a basis for meeting retail, leisure and employment needs of a discrete series of catchments. In addition to providing a comprehensive range of facilities commensurate with their status as strategic centres, the concept recognises that each centre is likely to have a distinct character and additional specialist strengths and functions serving a wider, sub-regional function.
4.21 Below the network of strategic centres, the more extensive network of town centres, and district/local centres would be expected to meet everyday needs as a local focus for predominantly convenience retail, services, leisure and community facilities. The role of the Black Country Study is to identify the appropriate scale and functions of the network of strategic centres, while specific initiatives for individual town and district centres will be prepared through local development frameworks.
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5. 1971-2001 - THE LAST 30 YEARS
5.1 To put the Study into context, we have examined the changes which have taken place in the national, regional and sub-regional network of centres over the last 30 years. A key indicator of a centres performance and role within the wider network is the scale and quality of its retail and services function. This also provides an empirical basis for measuring changes over time, and as such our analysis has focused on this indicator as a proxy of overall function.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW
5.2 At the national scale, over the last 30 years the UK has sustained real growth in expenditure of retail goods and services and leisure activity. This has been particularly evident in the case of expenditure on comparison (non-food) goods.
5.3 This picture of sustained retail growth provides little indication of the extent of change which has taken place in the retail services and leisure function of individual centres. In parallel with the growth in spending, multiple retailers have secured a progressively higher share of total retail sales and achieved much stronger growth. Co-operatives and independent retailers have declined. Growth in sales efficiencies have also gone hand in hand with modern retailers requirements for increased shop sizes. As a consequence, growth in spending has been principally focussed in those town and city centre and out-of-centre locations where new development has taken place, while centres which have not secured new retail investment have declined.
5.4 These factors have led to a sustained and ongoing pattern of polarisation of retail activity, with an increasing share of the total market focused in a smaller number of the larger, more successful centres. To illustrate this point, in 1971 the top 400 trading locations in the UK accounted for less than 60% of total comparison goods sales. By 1996, the top 400 locations accounted for over 80% of total sales and accounted for over 80% of all new shopping centre floorspace developed in the UK.
5.5 Research undertaken in 2001 indicated that just 80 of the UK’s 3,000 plus trading locations attracted over half of the country’s population for comparison goods shopping. To illustrate the extent of polarisation, based on the 1971 Census of Distribution, it took more than 200 trading locations nationally to achieve a similar combined market-share. One obvious implication is that retailers, service providers and leisure operations are able to serve the bulk of their catchment from a network of fewer, larger facilities in strategic locations relative to their main target catchment. The same economies of scale have driven other traditional town centre functions,
20 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
e.g. theatres and cinemas in the same direction. This tends to reinforce the concept of hierarchy, with a diminishing number of ‘higher order’ centres.
5.6 The role of many traditional centres has also been eroded by the growth of new destinations. 30 years ago, virtually all retail sales, services and leisure activities took place in traditional town and city centres. These were also the focus for public services, culture and employment. Since the early 80s, there has been an unprecedented expansion of out-of-centre activity, particularly in the retail, leisure and office sectors, but also involving public services, education and health facilities.
5.7 In the retail sector, which underpins the function of most centres, the evolution of retail warehouse and food superstore formats, retail parks, regional shopping centres and more recently fashion parks have all acted as an alternative avenue for traditional town centre activity. Six of the top 50 retail centres in the UK are purpose-built out-of-centre shopping centres, including Merry Hill, has become the highest ranking shopping centre in the West Midlands after Birmingham city centre itself.
5.8 The same trends which have influenced the pattern of “higher order” town and city centres, have also led to more profound changes at a more localised level. To illustrate the extent of the change, nationally the number of independent grocery retailers in the UK fell from 116,000 in 1961 to only 20,900 in late 1990s and the number of Co-ops fell from 14,000 to 2,300. The DETR market towns and district centres research published in 1998 indicated that between 1987 and 1996, food superstores increased their share of grocery sales from under 30% to in excess of 50%. More recently, fuelled by the growth of their strategic network of large superstores, the dominant superstore operators, notably Tesco and Asda, have further increased their market share in both the convenience and comparison sectors.
5.9 While there has been some renewed interest in local convenience retailing, the overall consequence of changes in the grocery sector has been to fuel a parallel pattern of polarisation of activity from traditional town and district centres, parades and corner shops to a strategic network of towns/district centres ‘anchored’ by food superstores. The economics of large store development mean these goods and services are provided in a coarser grain network of town and district centres i.e. mirroring the same factors influencing the evolution of a smaller number of ‘strategic’ centres.
THE WEST MIDLANDS CONTEXT
5.10 The pattern of retail and town centre activity across the West Midlands, and within the Black Country, mirrors the profound national and regional economic and demographic changes which have taken place over the last 30 years. Based on the 1971 Census of Distribution, Table 5.1 shows the distribution of retail activity within the Birmingham conurbation and Black Country sub-
21 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
region, based on the total number of shops, retail turnover, retail/services employment and total floorspace.
Table 5.1: Distribution of Retail Activity 1971 – By Council Area Total Shops Turnover £m Persons Employed Floorspace [000sq ft]
Birmingham 4,446 332.26 52,746 6,870 Solihull 737 30.82 4,583 616 Sutton Coldfield 530 17.61 3,078 337
Sub Total 5,713 380.69 60,407 7,823
Dudley 1,454 43.9 7,113 920 Walsall 1,719 55 8,764 1,060
West Bromwich 1,276 39.75 6,460 774
Wolverhampton 2,379 90.85 14,124 1,780 Aldridge/Brownhills 467 11.8 1,975 265
Stourbridge 526 15.4 2,58 320
Halesowen 432 12.44 1,935 230 Warley 1,808 40.43 6,965 847
Sub Total 10,061 309.57 49,894 6,197 Total 15,774 690.26 110,301 14,020
Source: Census of Distribution 1971
5.11 In total there were 5,713 shops in the Birmingham/Solihull/Sutton Coldfield conurbation, with a combined turnover of £380million, employing in excess of 60,000 people. The boroughs and urban districts which currently comprise the four Black Country authorities collectively contained 10,061 shops with a combined turnover of £309million, employing 49,900 people. In other words in 1971 what is now known as the Black Country comprised over 60% of the shops, circa 45% of total turnover and about 44% of total retail floorspace within the combined West Midlands conurbation.
5.12 Table 5.2 provides a more detailed picture of the retail hierarchy in 1971, which is illustrated in Plan 4.
22 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Table 5.2: Retail Hierarchy 1971 – Central Area Statistics Total Shops Turnover [£m] Persons Employed Floorspace [000sq ft]
Birmingham 557 76.11 12,310 1,862 Wolverhampton 548 45.31 6,651 1,008
Walsall 301 21.03 3,185 483
West Bromwich 254 11.31 1,893 219 Dudley 240 16.78 2,668 428
Bearwood 179 5.07 820 106
Stourbridge 173 6.87 1,125 168 Cape Hill 161 4.58 747 100
Brierley Hill 95 3.19 465 70
Smethwick 76 2.43 375 40 Oldbury 51 1.24 212 27
Aldridge 43 1.27 197 33
Source: Census of Distribution 1971
5.13 This analysis is based on central area statistics as defined, and therefore provides a direct like- for-like comparison between centres based on the total number of shops, turnover, persons employed in retail/services and total retail/services floorspace. No comparable statistics are available to show the range of other centre uses e.g. cinemas, theatres, public buildings, libraries etc. However, as the retail function underpins the wider role of town centres, this data provides a good indicator of the overall size and relative significance of the Black Country centres.
5.14 The Census of Distribution highlights that Birmingham City centre was the dominant shopping centre in the West Midlands, as would be expected. However, the scale and relative position of Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley provide a good indication of the importance of the Black Country centres at that time. Wolverhampton contained a comparable number of shops to Birmingham City centre, albeit comprising significantly less floorspace. Compared to Birmingham, at £76million, Wolverhampton achieved a turnover of £45.3million i.e. some 60% of Birmingham City centre’s total, and more than double that of Walsall as the next largest centre.
5.15 Based on the number of shops, turnover, floorspace and employment levels indicated in the 1971 Census of Distribution, a clear hierarchy emerges, with Birmingham as the dominant regional centre, Wolverhampton as the clearly dominant city centre for the Black Country, followed by Walsall, Dudley and West Bromwich. Walsall and Dudley were both clearly distinguished from West Bromwich in terms of their turnover and floorspace, but collectively these four centres clearly performed a distinct strategic role, operating at a significant level above the ‘second tier’ of Black Country centres such as Bearwood, Stourbridge and Cape Hill. Brierley Hill had a turnover
23 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
of only £3.2million, or less than 20% of that of Dudley, with less than half the number of shops and only 16% of the floorspace.
5.16 Since 1971, the combined effect of the national trends outlined earlier, population and economic decline within the Black Country, and the rise of out of centre retail activity and development of Merry Hill have all led to profound changes in the hierarchy of centres.
Table 5.3: Retail Hierarchy by Multiple Ranking 1961-95 Rank Order
Centre 1961 1971 1984 1989 1995 Birmingham Centre 5 4 2 3 4 Wolverhampton 17 17 16 22 54
Coventry 18 25 21 24 31 Walsall6968739096
Solihull 231 123 96 112 117
Sutton Coldfield - 272 126 119 110 Dudley 100 88 73 139 209
West Bromwich 132 170 109 167 209
Stourbridge - 228 239 236 324 Halesowen - - 333 410 432
Bilston - - 415 537 591
Bearwood - - 415 603 496 Aldridge - - - 694 744
Bloxwich 581 694 859
Brownhills 581 694 1011 Darlaston 581 694 859
Wednesfield 581 694 744
Wednesbury 681 694 658
Oldbury - - - - 1011
Merry Hill - - - - 61
Willenhall 901 859
Source: Hillier Parker Note: 1961-89 rankings and 1995 rankings not directly comparable.
5.17 Table 5.3 charts the rank order of the principal centres in the West Midlands and Black Country Centres between 1961 and 1995.
5.18 At the national scale, Birmingham City Centre itself lost ground relative to Glasgow and Manchester. In the Black Country, Wolverhampton’s ranking fell from 17 to 54; Walsall fell from 69 to 96; Dudley from 100 to 209 and West Bromwich from 132 to 209. In contrast, Coventry lost ground but not to such a great extent, while Solihull and Sutton Coldfield both enhanced significantly their position within the hierarchy, based on new shopping centre investment in both
24 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
centres. Merry Hill first entered the national ranking at 61 i.e. in retail terms just behind a declining Wolverhampton City centre, and well ahead of Walsall, Dudley and West Bromwich. In retail terms, it has subsequently overtaken Wolverhampton.
5.19 The development of Merry Hill led to the most profound change to take place in the network of Black Country Centres in recent years. Against the backdrop of little or no significant investment in any of the smaller Black Country centres, Merry Hill developed as a dominant focus for retail activity, undermining the established retail function of nearby centres and providing a new focus for retail activity and growth. The extent of the impact of Merry Hill on the nearby centres was illustrated by the Merry Hill Impact Study undertaken by RTP on behalf of the DOE in 1993.
Table 5.4: Impact of Merry Hill on Black Country Centres Changes in Comparison Business Market Shares 1989-93
1989 (%) 1993 (%) Percentage Change
Birmingham 25.69 22 -15 Wolverhampton 16.1 14.2 -12
Walsall 8.9 8.3 -7
Dudley 8.9 2.6 -70 West Bromwich 5.3 4.0 -24
Stourbridge 2.5 1.4 -43
Halesowen 1.2 1.0 -17
Source: Merry Hill Impact Study, DoE, 1993 Note: The % change column relates to the change between the market share 1989-93 as a % of the 1989 market share.
5.20 Table 5.4 shows the impact of Merry Hill on neighbouring centres’ market shares, on a direct like- for-like basis over the period 1989-1993. Following the development of the first phase of Merry Hill as a free standing retail warehouse park in 1986, and completion of the next five phases, comprising a total of circa 130,000sq m gross by 1989, Merry Hill increased its share of total comparison expenditure within the study area from 2.4% in 1989 to 15.6% in 1993. All subsequent evidence suggests that the centre has continued to increase its market share since then.
5.21 Over the same period, the market share of Birmingham City Centre fell from 25.9% to 22%. Wolverhampton’s market share fell from 16.1% to 14.2% - a drop of 12%. Walsall was less obviously impacted, with only a 7% change in market share. However, the most profound changes took place in the centres closest to Merry Hill; the market share of Dudley fell by 70%, West Bromwich by 24% and Stourbridge by 43%. In these and other centres, key multiple retailers took the opportunity to secure strategic representation in large modern new units at Merry Hill and rationalised their existing networks, graphically illustrating the practical consequences of wider national trends described in paragraphs 5.2 - 5.5.
25 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
5.22 To conclude this section, and to illustrate the extend of the transformation of the retail hierarchy which has taken place in the Black Country over the last 30 years, Table 5.5 illustrates the centres ranking in 2001 and 2004, based on the Experian vitality indicators based on multiple retailer representation, floorspace and the presence of key retail attractors. The table also shows the turnover of each centre, as estimated by CACI, to illustrate the changes which have taken place in the relative position of each since 1971. This is illustrated on Plan 5.
Table 5.5: Black Country Centre Ranking 2001/2004
2001 2004 2004 Turnover (CACI) £m
Birmingham 5 3 2,206 Merry Hill 24 19 591
Wolverhampton 48 45 454
Walsall 85 - 279
West Bromwich 168 - 112
Stourbridge 308 - -
Halesowen 313 - - Dudley 316 - -
Bilston 501 - - Source: Retail Centre Ranking 2001, Experian/BCSC, CACI
5.23 While not directly comparable to the multiple rankings 1961-1995, the Experian analysis shows that prior to the opening of the Bull Ring, Birmingham City Centre had fallen to 5th place behind the West End, Glasgow, Nottingham and Leeds. In retail terms the Merry Hill Centre ranked 24th in the UK and was the highest ranking Black Country centre. Wolverhampton, as the highest ranking traditional centre in retail terms, achieved only 48th place, with Walsall placed 85th and West Bromwich placed at 168th. The only other Black Country centre to score within the top 500 UK centres based on retail indicators were Stourbridge, Halesowen and Dudley.
rd 5.24 The 2004 Experian Rankings demonstrate that Birmingham has improved its rank to 3 , and Merry Hill has risen to 9th place, while Wolverhampton remains within the top 50 centres. Table 5.6 shows the relative shares the combined Birmingham/Black Country turnover accounted for by Birmingham and the defined strategic centres and how they have changed since 1971. This graphically illustrates the polarisation of activity to Birmingham and Merry Hill, and the relative decline of Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley.
26 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Table 5.6: Census of Distribution 1971
Retail Hierarchy
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00% 1971 30.00% 2004
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
ll a h s Hill ry Wal Dudley hampton omwic r Br Mer t Birmingham s Wolve We
Source: CACI’s Retail Footprint 2004
5.25 This analysis has significant implications for the Black Country centres study:-
It shows the extent of the change which has taken place in the scale and relative role of the Black Country centres as a result of economic decline, national trends and the growth of competing retail destinations.
It demonstrates that sustained significant investment within the retail sector is critical to under-pinning the role and performance of centres and maintaining and enhancing their wider attractions.
It shows the challenges the area faces as the traditional network of centres adjusts to changing economic circumstances and wider trends, and some centres continue to decline and adopt to new roles.
It illustrates the extent to which it is possible to bring about profound changes in the distribution of key town centre activities, and in particular how policy intervention (or the lack of it in the case of Merry Hill) have led to the development of a nationally significant retail destination.
5.26 This analysis provides the context within which we examine current market conditions and the consequences of longer term trends for the future network of Black Country Centres.
27 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
SUMMARY
5.27 To put the Black Country Centre Study into context, examination of the changing national, regional and sub-regional network of centres over the last 30 years provides a graphic indication of the scale of change which has taken place, provides an indication of ongoing trends, and illustrates the scale of change which can be anticipated over the next 30 years with and without policy intervention.
5.28 In 1971 Birmingham City Centre was still the dominant regional centre. However, Wolverhampton was the second largest centre, with a comparable number of shops and a turnover of more than 60% of that of Birmingham. The Black Country comprised a dense network of centres, collectively achieving a comparable turnover to the combined turnover of Birmingham, Solihull and Sutton Coldfield. Within the Black Country, there was a clear hierarchy, dominated by Wolverhampton, with Walsall, Dudley and West Bromwich each performing a significant, but subordinate function.
5.29 As a consequence of population and economic decline, and wider economic trends, the position of all the Black Country Centres has been eroded over the last 30 years. Compounded by the development of Merry Hill, the current network of centres shows a radical change; in retail terms Merry Hill has overtaken Wolverhampton as the dominant shopping centre, Wolverhampton’s turnover is now only circa 20% that of Birmingham. Walsall, and in particular Dudley and West Bromwich have all witnessed significant sustained decline in relative terms.
28 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
6. CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT
6.1 Developing a strategy for the Black Country Centres up to 2031 and beyond requires a visionary approach. Comparison between the role of the strategic centres in 1971 and 2004 illustrates the magnitude of physical, economic and social change which has occurred over this timescale. The indications are that the scale of technological change and environmental priorities and consumer trends may lead to even more significant changes over the next 30 years.
6.2 Taking the key components of a successful town centre, this section examines national and regional trends and changing local market conditions to provide an insight into the current and future opportunities, challenges and threats facing the Black Country Centres. The key sectors examined are: -
Retail
High Street Services
Leisure/Cultural Uses
Offices
Housing
6.3 This analysis will be supplemented by the other thematic studies, in particular the demographic, housing and employment studies will provide a more detailed picture of demographic tends and how the office and residential markets are expected to change over the next 30 years. This will have significant implications for the spatial distribution of population and expenditure, and hence the potential of the centres serving each catchment.
THE RETAIL SECTOR
Market Overview
6.4 Nationally, retail sales increased by 6.2% between 2000-2001. This was the highest sales growth for several years and is largely as a result of increased available expenditure where people have remortgaged to take advantage of low interest rates. Verdict Analysis predict that retail sales growth will slow as interest rate increases take effect and in subsequent years growth of no more than 4% is predicted.
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6.5 Verdict indicates that growth rates for bulky goods have outpaced other retail sectors; for example, furniture and floor coverings grew by 7.3% and DIY and gardening grew by 8.5% between 1996-2000, compared to 4.4% for clothing and food. The impact of DIY TV shows on sales growth has been considerable, and together with the ‘improve, not move’ trend and product and technical innovations the DIY boom is set to continue.
6.6 Although high street sales grew by 43% between 1991-2001, this is below the growth rate for all UK sales (56%) as total sales were driven by much stronger growth in out of town sales (150% between 1991 and 2001). Verdict Analysis indicates that the slower rate of high street growth reflects its relative decline in significance over the last decade. The high street now accounts for 47% of retail sales compared with 51% in 1991. As a consequence, a proportion of spending growth in the Black Country will be taken by existing out of centre destinations.
6.7 Our town centre capacity projections (Appendix C and Section 8) assume existing out of centre facilities retain their market share and therefore account for a proportion of forecast spending growth. However, in line with policy objectives, if new investment is focussed in established centres, there is potential to reverse this decline. In this event, our town centre capacity projections could be regarded as conservative.
Mainstream Trends
6.8 National retail trends indicate a continuing contraction in the number of shop units. Total store numbers in the UK have declined by 11% over the last 10 years. This masks variations in the decline of different types of stores and different locations. With the growth of superstores during the 1990s, there has been a decline in the number of smaller and more specialist food retailers. The number of food specialists has declined by 19% from 48,301 in 1992 to 39,131 in 2002, whereas the number of large superstores has increased by 50% from 860 in 1992 to 1,292 in 2002. Both trends are likely to continue.
6.9 Whilst the share of sales has drifted towards the out of town retailers, at the national level the high street increased its share of stores selling comparison goods in the latter part of the decade, largely as a result of Government policy. This trend looks set to continue, particularly with the virtual end of the development of large out of town regional shopping centres and the focus instead on town centres schemes such as the Bull Ring in Birmingham. However, it remains to be seen whether the focus of development activity back into centres will be matched by growth in the market share of town centres, to recapture ground lost to out of centre facilities. An equally significant and longer term trend is the continuing polarisation by retailers towards larger schemes in larger centres.
6.10 This will have profound implications for the Black Country, best illustrated by the growth and dominance of Birmingham City Centre and Merry Hill, and the parallel decline in relative terms of
30 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
centres like Dudley and West Bromwich (precipitated by the departure of key anchor retailers such as Marks & Spencer). The focus of the most influential retailers and developers is increasingly concentrated on larger developments in dominant city centres which are, or have the potential to become, ‘top 50’ destinations with strong catchments. At present, only Merry Hill and Wolverhampton fit this profile.
6.11 At the other end of the spectrum, the growth of the dominant foodstores and decline in unit numbers poses similar challenges for small town centres and district/local centres which rely on their convenience/service base. A clear picture is emerging of a network of large dominant superstores, and corresponding decline/diversification in the traditional smaller centre. This is already evident in the varying fortunes of the smaller town/district centres in the Black Country, suggesting over the next 30 years many smaller centres will cease to exist in their current form.
Niche/Specialist Markets
6.12 ‘Mainstream’ retail/mixed use development, targeting multiple retailers, is the principal driver of most significant town centre development activities. However, ethnic and ‘niche’ markets have also developed in many centres. Specialist Asian centres often provide a retail offer which meets all of the local population needs in a single destination, providing outlets for ethnic foods and clothes, as well as providing professional services such as lawyers and accountants. Often Asian centres become a focal point for ethnic minorities over a relatively wide area, occasionally performing a regional or even a national role.
6.13 In some centres, other specialist/niche functions have developed. Examples include Hay on Wye (bookshops), Dorking (antiques), Padstow (restaurants) and Street (the Clarkes Village outlet centre). In each case, this function reflects the special character of the area, and (with the exception of Street) has evolved over an extended timescale. While such specialist functions support diversity and the unique character of these smaller centres, they do not provide the catalyst for major investment or perform a strategic function.
Etailing
6.14 In addition to niche and ethnic markets, the advent of new technology such as internet or digital television home shopping may have an impact on the retail sector and role of centres. Certain sub-sectors may be more affected than others, as the internet has particular attraction for certain types of retailing, including books, CDs and high value electrical goods. Verdict Analysis indicate that many of the high street’s key national multiples are developing multi-channel strategies that combine the technology of the internet with the brand power of their stores. Examples include WHSmith and Boots.
31 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
6.15 In our capacity analysis, we have considered the consequences for future capacity in the strategic centres of an increase in the proportion of comparison goods expenditure on special forms of trading (which includes e-tailing) from circa 8% at present to 20% by 2021. This is detailed in Appendix C.
6.16 In the convenience sector internet shopping is unlikely to have a significant effect in the future. Although Verdict predict that growth will be fuelled by the increasing savviness of consumers, as growing numbers of women and older people become more confident in ordering on line and ordering is speeded up by broadband, overall they forecast that this will not have a significant effect on sales. Verdict predict that on-line sales will increase from £1.4bn in 2001 to £5.3bn by 2007, although this will still only make up 4% of all grocers and food specialist sales.
The Changing Face of the High Street
6.17 Changes are occurring in the traditional ‘high street’ fascias as evidenced by closures and rationalisation and the emergence of new retailers. Whilst these changes are most likely to affect the larger city centres, operators such as Arcadia whose high street fascias include Top Shop/Man, Burton, Dorothy Perkins, Evans and Warehouse are rationalising and reducing the number of outlets across the country. New retailers are emerging, including the international fashion stores such as Mango and Zara, but are only seeking representation in larger centres.
6.18 Retailers which are expanding more generally on the ‘high street’ include value orientated operators such as the clothing retailer Primark which has increasingly moved away from sites in more secondary locations to higher profile sites in town centres. Other mainstream value orientated retailers expanding on the ‘high street’ include New Look and Peacocks. Overall value orientated retailing looks to be a key growth area. As a reaction to this, middle market operators are segmenting their offer further, providing own brands such as Per Una and Blue Harbour in Marks and Spencer.
6.19 The space requirements of retailers on the ‘high street’ and particularly in shopping centre locations are also being reconsidered and increasingly operators like Next, Gap, H&M and Zara are requiring large footprints in order to be able to compete with one another and off centre locations, show-case extensive product ranges, and provide sufficient in store facilities and an attractive, modern shopping environment.
6.20 Whilst there has been a slow down in out of centre floorspace development as a consequence of planning policies, more traditional ‘high street’ retailers are still seeking to diversify their formats and provide out of centre facilities where opportunities arise. John Lewis Partnership, M&S and key high street fashion retailers like Next all trade from out of centre stores. Conversely, in response to the current policy climate, traditional out of centre operators like Ikea are experimenting with ‘in centre’ options.
32 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
6.21 The leading foodstore operators are also continuing to innovate to increase their market share. Some have developed smaller store formats such as Tesco Metro and Sainsbury’s Local and been more innovative in their town centre proposals. There has also been a growth in ‘forecourt’ retailing, operated either by the large supermarket chains or the major oil companies, which is likely to have a continuing effect on small local centres and parades, and accelerate the decline in the number of traditional grocers in the smaller Black Country Centres.
6.22 The pressure for larger superstores and hypermarkets will continue, particularly through the expansion of successful out-of-centre foodstores. However, we also expect to see more innovation in the development of large food superstores, with stores incorporated into high density, mixed use developments incorporating leisure and residential uses within town centres, in response to policy guidance.
6.23 The discount retailers continue to seek opportunities to expand their networks. To a certain extent their offer complements existing local centre facilities. For example, Aldi only sells a more limited proportion of the lines that would be available in a larger superstore and does not offer facilities that would be found in local centres such as fresh butchers, fresh bakers or fishmongers, and other non-food facilities such as dry cleaners, pharmacy or post office.
THE LEISURE SECTOR
Market Overview
6.24 A number of profound changes within the structure of society have, over the last 25 years, impacted upon our consumption of leisure. According to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), people in the UK work the longest hours in Europe, with more people working in excess of 60 hours per week. A survey undertaken in 2002 by the DTI’s Work-Life Balance Campaign revealed that one in six men now work 60+ a week compared to one in eight two years ago. The number of women working similar hours has also increased, doubling to one in eight.
6.25 Mintel highlights ‘household working patterns’ as one of the more important influences on consumer spending and behavioural patterns in general. In particular, the overall level of employment has increased by 3.4% between 1998 and 2003, although the growth in women in employment has risen twice as fast as that for men. This increase in ‘cash-rich, time poor’ consumers has a great influence on the leisure industry. Mintel concludes that this is particularly relevant to the increase in eating out habits and individual sports such as swimming and going to the gym.
6.26 In economic terms, real growth in levels of personal disposable income, coupled with low unemployment, have resulted in a buoyant leisure market nationally, with consumers being prepared to spend more on leisure activities. Drawing on National Statistics, Mintel highlights
33 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
that ‘Personal Disposable Income’ (PDI) increased by 18% between 1998 and 2002 in real terms, and consumer expenditure increased by 19%. PDI and consumer expenditure are forecast to grow despite the slowing of the economy, helping to grow the leisure industry further.
6.27 Nationally, the increase in the proportion of Class AB adults is fuelling growth in the leisure industry. Currently, the Black Country does not reflect this trend. However, the RPG strategy to attract economic growth and change the profile of the area will bring about convergence of consumer spending, and hence demand for leisure services, with currently more affluent areas. In these circumstances, population and expenditure growth, and an increased proportion of social class ABs will lead to significant growth in the leisure sector in the Black Country.
Leisure Choices
6.28 The range of leisure choice now on offer to the consumer has grown considerably within the last decade, leading to an increase in competition within the leisure industry (Table 6.1). It is evident that the pace of growth in the cinema and the health and fitness market has been notably faster than other sectors. According to Mintel’s report on Health and Fitness Clubs – UK (May 2003), between 1998 and 2002 the value of the private health & fitness clubs market increased by 62% at current prices; in real terms the growth was still substantial at 49%.
Table 6.1: Comparison of spend on selected leisure activities, 1998-2003 1998 £m 1999 £m 2000 £m 2001 £m 2002 £m 2003 (est) % change £m 1998-2003 Bingo 1,019 1,041 1,076 1,118 1,164 1,205 +18.3 Cinemas 720 781 827 895 965 1,026 +42.5 Health & 1,084 1,226 1,434 1,667 1,753 1,848 +70.5 fitness* Nightclubs and 2,156 1,975 1,830 1,804 1,767 1,727 -19.9 discotheques** Tenpin 201 206 219 233 245 258 +28.4 bowling Theme parks 224 236 232 236 249 259 +15.6 Eating out*** 20,029 21,116 22,230 23,246 24,436 25,092 +25.3 * Data relate only to private clubs and therefore exclude those clubs run on behalf of local authorities ** Corporate facilities are also excluded *** Includes spend in fast food outlets, pub catering, restaurants and other catering, but excludes 'chameleon/hybrid'- type outlets Source: Mintel
6.29 Between 1998 and 2003, Mintel estimates that the ‘eating out’ market grew by some 25%, largely due to convenience for consumers, an increase in disposable income and the social aspect of eating out. Mintel identifies that consumers are increasingly choosing to make life easier for themselves in order to offset the stress brought on by everyday life. Consumers are choosing to combine a number of activities in an evening, and as eating out has become less formal, it is now not necessarily the focus of the evening out but is considered as part of an overall experience, reinforcing the link between shopping, leisure activities and bars/restaurants.
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6.30 Trading through pubs has grown slowly since 1998 despite buoyant economic conditions and, according to Mintel, the total number of licensed premises has remained fairly stagnant between 2000-2003. A significant amount of trade has been diverted to ‘take-home’ purchasing through supermarkets, shops and off licences, as well as cross Channel supplies. This has led to the major pub landlords innovating in order to attract customers back to their hostelries. Concepts include family pubs, and large ‘superpubs’ and sports bars in City Centres, all attracting a predominantly young clientele.
6.31 Technological developments have had a huge influence on the leisure industry and how we spend our leisure time, with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable with the technology in their homes. The increasing number of channels now available, encourage growth in viewing time. Emailing and surfing the Internet are considered leisure activities and online, gambling and other activities are becoming increasingly popular. Using this medium can become a time saver for other leisure activities, such as shopping, booking tickets for cinema, theatre or concerts, and booking holidays.
Emerging Markets
6.32 The role of ‘Casinos’ is forecast to represent one of the greatest changes in the leisure industry over the next few years. According to Mintel, visits to casinos over a two-year period (1999- 2001) grew by 5%. Consequently the average spend per visit to an average casino had risen to £59 in 2001. There are, however, significant differences between the London and provincial casino markets, for instance, although the provincial market accounts for 81% of all casinos and 76% of all visits, it only accounts for 37% of the industry turnover. Nevertheless, stronger growth in more recent times has been seen in the provincial market, with the London market experiencing a small slow down.
6.33 The Government has recently introduced the new Gambling Act, which introduces far-reaching changes relating to casinos. Casinos will no longer have to operate as private clubs, and will also be able to offer live entertainment, advertise, offer betting and bingo as well as table games, and offer larger numbers of gaming machines linked to each other to offer potentially large joint jackpots. However, the number of new large and regional casinos has been restricted to 8 and 1 respectively, pending further consideration of their effects.
6.34 The Government believes these changes will widen consumer choice and reflect the extent to which the gambling industry has become part of mainstream leisure. Casino operators have already responded to the proposed changes, and subject to the current restriction on the number of large/regional casinos to be permitted, we anticipate strong demand for regional scale casino and associated facilities in the West Midlands (regional casinos are defined as having a minimum gaming area of 5,000sq m and associated facilities). However, the polarisation of activity into
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key ‘destinations’ indicates that only one or two locations are likely to emerge within the Black Country over the study period, and Birmingham will be a key competitor in the region.
Locational Factors
6.35 Since the mid-1990s, despite higher rents, there has been a steady trend, driven by central government policy, towards building new leisure schemes in town/edge of centre locations. A number of factors have helped drive the growth of leisure venue provision in town and city centres.
6.36 In the larger UK cities, urban living is back in fashion; town centres can offer consumers a much more vibrant atmosphere in which to eat and drink; and they also offer a much wider choice of leisure venues, allowing more spontaneous decisions. For bars, restaurants and health & fitness clubs, the attraction of the town centre is ‘daytime trade’, and the ability to capitalise on proximity to businesses and shoppers.
6.37 This change in location has also been combined with the inclusion of leisure complexes that incorporate both retail and leisure facilities. Leisure facilities can be used as a way of encouraging customers to stay longer and consequently spend more and most major town centre development projects now combine retail and leisure, including eating and drinking, cinemas etc. However, the potential to secure new quality leisure/mixed use development depends on the attractiveness of the centre, accessibility, and the availability of opportunities for significant new development to act as a catalyst for change.
6.38 In the West Midlands, the success of the Mailbox and Brindley Place as mixed use locations combining retail, hotels, offices and leisure facilities illustrate the synergy between dynamic mixed use city quarters and the traditional retail core of the city centre. These schemes provide good examples of the type of mixed use retail/leisure/residential development which is likely to become more prevalent in a wider range of strategic centres, including the Black Country Centres.
THE SERVICES SECTOR
6.39 Collectively, changes taking place in the convenience retail sector and services sector have profound implications for the future of traditional local centres and parades. Key services, notably pharmacies, post offices and banks/building societies are all undergoing structural change.
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Pharmacies
6.40 The position of community pharmacies in local and town centres has been relatively protected and little change has occurred in numbers since 1987. The Office of Fair Trading’s (OFT) Market Investigation Report attributes this to regulations which seek to control entry to the market. Currently the regulations only give pharmacist’s dispensations to provide NHS prescriptions where they satisfy health authority requirements that their services are ‘necessary or desirable’ for a local area.
6.41 Despite the relatively small change in actual community pharmacy numbers, the dynamics of the market have changed. Since 1990 ‘Superdrug Ltd’ has entered the market and other existing national pharmacy chains (i.e. Boots) and supermarkets have significantly increased their market share.
6.42 In January 2003, the OFT recommended to the Government that there should be a deregulation of pharmacies thereby allowing all registered pharmacies with qualified staff to be able to dispense NHS prescriptions. This could result in significantly more pharmacies in supermarkets, and thereby impact on traditional outlets. Research commissioned by Lloyds Pharmacy in January 2003 showed that, at present approximately 6,000 pharmacies across the country are located within the catchment area of two or more supermarkets and therefore they are potentially threatened. The New Economics Foundation consider these pharmacies to be at threat should deregulation occur. They state that “this could translate to as many as 145 pharmacies being lost in an urban area such as Birmingham” (New Economics Foundation, 2003, p3).
Post Offices
6.43 Research by the New Economics Foundation indicates the importance of the local post office branch, for example as a focal point for social interaction, information about job and community services, financial transactions and advice. Services are especially valued by the disabled, those without a car, those over 65, carers and one-parent families. In urban deprived areas, post offices are also the main source of cash and in many cases double as the only store providing an important source of food and basic items for local people. The role of post offices in maintaining local economies is emphasised by the New Economics Foundation; once people have cash in their hands, they will more often choose to spend it in local shops.
6.44 Britain has one of the most extensive post office networks in Europe and 94% of people are within a mile of one of them. However, the New Economics Foundation reported in December 2002 that the number of post offices in the UK has been in steady decline of around 2-3% a year for the last ten years. In 1981, there were 22,000 post offices in Britain, by April 2001 this had fallen to 17,846. According to the Financial Times, Britain lost 547 post offices in 2001, 112 of which were in urban centres.
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6.45 The automation of services (i.e. direct debit payment methods and banking transfers) has reduced handling fees, which Post Offices rely on for revenue; the lack of suitable replacement sub-postmasters/mistresses when they retire; and reductions in shoppers in local centres have all contributed to increasing the number of post office closures. The New Economics Foundation stated “that where the supermarkets draw away shoppers, the post office goes too. If one end of these businesses comes under threat, either the retail or the post office – the community risk losing both institutions for good” (New Economics Foundation, 2002, p20).
6.46 The government announced in December 2002 that grants of up to £50,000 will be given to urban post offices in some of the poorest areas to make them viable and prevent closure. However, the Post Office announced in February 2003 that 3,000 urban branches were to close under the urban reinvention programme over the next three years, therefore the trend is set to continue.
Banks/Building Societies
6.47 Barclays, Lloyds TSB, HSBC and RBS Natwest, known collectively as the ‘Big Four’, account for over two thirds of all private current accounts in Britain and have a virtual monopoly of (89%) over small business accounts (New Economics Foundation, 2002). Rationalisation by the ‘Big Four’ has contributed to many branch closures. Technological advances through the emergence of telephone and internet banking; competition from branchless banks; and the availability of banking services through post offices have also impacted upon bank and building society branch numbers.
6.48 During the 1990s the number of high street bank branches fell dramatically. Britain lost over a quarter of its branch network. Between 1988 and 2000 the number of bank branches fell from approximately 17,500 to 12,000, with more than 3,500 bank branches closing between 1995 and 2000. The British Bankers Association reported that more than 150 bank branches were closed in 2001. The Building Societies Yearbook reported that 200 Building Society branches disappeared from the high street between 2000 and 2002. Deloitte Research estimates that the termination programme will ultimately continue and a further 3,600 bank branches will close by 2005. (New Economic Foundation, 2002).
6.49 The combined effect of the rationalisation of pharmacies, Post Offices and banks/building societies will reinforce the polarisation of retail activity towards the network of key town/district centres. As a consequence, we expect to see further contraction in the size and function of a number of the smaller centres in the Black Country.
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THE OFFICE SECTOR
6.50 Analysis of the regional and local office market illustrates a growing disparity between the dominance of Birmingham City Centre as the key regional office centre, and the limited role performed by the Black Country Centres. Total current office stock in Birmingham City Centre is circa 924,000sq m. Over the next 5 – 10 years, a number of opportunities and development projects in the city centre could provide circa 464,500sq m i.e. an increase of circa 50% in the current stock. Key projects include Masshouse, Paradise Circus, Eastside Technology Park, The Learning and Entertainment Quarter and Curzon Park.
6.51 Outside Birmingham City Centre office development is more subdued. In the Black Country there has been limited development in the traditional centres of Walsall, Dudley and Wolverhampton. There is no significant office development pipeline in these centres, and the existing accommodation is generally dated and falls short of current occupier requirements in terms of parking, technology, floor to ceiling heights and floor plates layout.
6.52 The main exception is at Brierley Hill/Merry Hill where the Waterfront represents a hybrid between traditional town centre markets and out of centre provision. The Waterfront has been developed since the late 1980s and is now an established office location with rentals significantly above comparables in the traditional Black Country Centres. Reflecting its growing stature as a significant office location, over 75,000sq m of B1 space is proposed at Brierley Hill as part of the masterplan, which would significantly strengthen the position of Brierley Hill as the most significant ‘central’ office location within the West Midlands conurbation after Birmingham City Centre.
6.53 After Birmingham City Centre itself, the main focus for office development in the West Midlands has been in out of town provision, particularly along the M42 Corridor and to a lesser extent South Coventry. The M42 Corridor includes two large established business parks - Birmingham Business Park and Blyth Valley Business Parks which both occupy large sites of circa 50 hectares with significant remaining sites being considered for further expansion. A recent survey of the M42 Corridor undertaken by GVA Grimley identified 82,000sq m of floorspace either available or planned within the next 5 years for business park use.
6.54 In the Black Country and Southern Staffordshire the out of town office market is less well developed. Schemes that have progressed since the mid to late 1980s include Pendeford Office Park and Wolverhampton Business Park, and both have significant potential for further development. In Dudley, Castlegate Park has capacity for circa 9,000sq m of B1 office development and more recently office development activity has begun to emerge around the urban motorway junctions in the Black Country, particularly Junction 2 of the M5 and Junction 10 of the M6.
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6.55 We anticipate the main focus of office activity will continue to be Birmingham City Centre and the M42 Corridor. In the Black Country the main prerequisites for developing an expanding office sector are the availability of strategic sites with good access to the motorway network, and the availability of a skilled workforce. More detailed analysis of the office sector, and the spatial options for new office development are being undertaken as part of the economic study.
THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
6.56 Nationally, population growth and household formation have led to sustained demand for housing. The demographic/housing thematic studies are expected to provide a more detailed focus of the regional and local housing market dynamics. However, it is apparent that the wider national trends towards city centre living and the role of residential development as part of mixed use developments is already well established within the regional and largest sub-regional centres.
6.57 Since 1991, Birmingham has established itself as the major centre for ‘City Living’ in the West Midlands, and over 3,500 new dwellings have been constructed in the city centre with strong growth in sales values. The market for smaller units has seen the strongest growth, and this trend is expected to continue reinforced by the strength of the city centre as an employment base, and its retail, leisure and cultural offer.
6.58 In the Black Country, the trend towards city living is at a more embryonic stage. In Wolverhampton a number of projects have come forward within the City Centre, including the Market Square development, and Redrow has commenced a phased scheme in the Canalside Quarter. The indicators are that within the St John’s Urban Village and the Canalside Quarter, Wolverhampton is likely to see a sustained interest in growth in mixed use residential and leisure development, capitalising on the cultural attractions of the centre and its improving communication links.
6.59 In Dudley and Walsall the city living market is less well developed. Both centres have begun to attract interest in the residential and mixed use developments. In Walsall we understand there is increased interest in residential conversions. However, the market for large scale purpose built residential schemes in these centres is at a much earlier stage. In Dudley proposals for Dudley Zoo and Castle include almost 300 properties, and there are proposals for mixed leisure and residential development on the edge of the Walsall Town Centre. It is evident that the national trend towards high density city living, and the creation of genuinely mixed use residential and leisure developments within and on the edge of city centres offer significant potential for Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley.
6.60 In contrast to the development of city living in Wolverhampton, and to a lesser extent the strategic centres of Dudley, Walsall and the emerging centre of Brierley Hill, West Bromwich has yet to
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attract any significant interest in city living. Sandwell is an identified housing market renewal area and the markets dominated by Victorian and Edwardian terrace housing and later phases of flat development from the 1950s and 60s. The housing tenure within the wider pathfinder area reflects the pattern of housing choice more in common with the structure of housing markets nationally in the 1970s, with owner occupation below 50% across the area and significantly below this in some areas. The Housing Association provision equates to almost 15% of the stock, but over 10% of the stock is private rented reflecting the characteristics of the local population.
SUMMARY
6.61 We have examined current market trends in the retail, service, leisure, office and housing sectors, to examine the implications for the future pattern of development within the Black Country Centres.
6.62 Retailing, and in particular comparison retailing, underpins the function of most major centres and has seen sustained growth with renewed interest in town centre development reinforced by the current national policy context. However, the out of centre market has continued to gain market share at the expense of traditional high streets, and growth in new comparison based development is increasingly polarising towards major schemes in a smaller number of large centres.
6.63 Continuing structural changes in the convenience and services sector have particular implications for smaller town and district/local centres. As the main food superstore operators increase their market share and diversify into everyday non food goods and services, large food superstores increasingly define and underpin the network of town and district centres.
6.64 In the commercial leisure sector, changing social and demographic trends and increased personal disposable income will fuel sustained growth in mainstream commercial leisure activities, including cinemas, bars, restaurants and post deregulation, significant additional investment in the gambling and entertainment industry. As a consequence of market trends and policy, many main stream leisure activities, including the cinema, are increasingly returning to traditional town centre locations.
6.65 Birmingham is the dominant city centre office market in the West Midlands; outside the city centre much of the recent and current development is taking place in strategically located out of centre office parks. None of the traditional Black Country Centres has a significant office market at present; the main concentration of ‘in centre’ office development in the Black Country is at Waterfront at Brierley Hill. This is the only genuinely strategic office location in the Black Country.
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6.66 Our analysis indicates a significant demand for city living, in generally high density mixed use city centre and edge of centre locations, particularly building on the historic character and waterfront locations provided in many of the Black Country Centres. It is equally apparent that attracting generally more affluent and younger people to live within city centres serves to strengthen their immediate catchment profile and create additional demand for retail and leisure uses. It also extends the diversity of the centre and reinforces the evening economy.
6.67 Based on the current market, and demographic profile of the Black Country, we can expect to see sustained growth in city living in Wolverhampton and, over time, in Walsall, Dudley and the wider Brierley Hill area. We consider the scope to attract significant city living as part of the sustainable mix of uses within West Bromwich Town Centre is likely to be more dependent on the changing nature of its catchment, and its retail and leisure function and improving market perceptions of the area as a place to live.
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7. THE BLACK COUNTRY SUB-REGION TODAY
7.1 This section examines the relationship of the Black Country with the wider sub-region, and in particular the influence of key competing strategic centres on the current and future role of the strategic Black Country centres. It draws extensively on detailed in centre and household survey data which underpins the whole study.
THE STUDY AREA
7.2 In order to understand the operation of the Black Country Centres and their interaction with the rest of the region, it is necessary to adopt a Study area which extends beyond the defined Black Country sub-region comprising the four boroughs.
7.3 In discussion with the client group, we agreed at the outset to go beyond the original terms of our brief and conduct independent in-centre surveys in Wolverhampton, Brierley Hill, Walsall and West Bromwich, to provide an objective means of identifying each centres’ catchment for retail and leisure activities, and help to define a composite household survey area.
7.4 A total of 1,200 face-to-face interviews were conducted in Merry Hill, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton, over the period 29th March to 3rd April 2004. The results are weighted to reflect frequency of visits, to ensure that the results are not unduly influenced by the views of occasional visitors. A summary of the main findings of the study, which has informed this analysis in several areas, is set out in Appendix A.
7.5 Based on the findings of the in-centre survey, a study area was defined for the purposes of commissioning the household survey. This area was further divided into sub zones as a means of measuring current shopping/leisure patterns within the study area as a whole and between the four strategic centres. Within this area a household telephone interview survey was carried out with a sample of 4, 000 households, broken down between 54 zones. The survey area and zones identified are shown on Plan 6, and a summary of the methodology and main survey findings are included as Appendix B.
7.6 Table 7.1 ranks the principal West Midlands Centres by catchment population and floorspace. After Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Walsall fall within the ‘second tier’ (38-91 rank position) of centres together with Solihull, Sutton Coldfield and Telford. West Bromwich and Dudley fall within the ‘third tier’ (154-181 rank position) of centres, alongside centres like Lichfield, Tamworth and Kidderminister.
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Table 7.1: Competing Centres, Sub-Regional Context (Sorted by Shopping Population Rank Position)
Shopping Population Rank Floorspace sq m gross Centre Position (CBRE) (Goad) Birmingham 3 300,000
Merry Hill 24 134,705 Wolverhampton 38 140,279 Walsall 53 104,977 Solihull 59 98,474 Sutton Coldfield 78 52,953 Telford 91 88,255 West Bromwich 154 63,172 Redditch 160 93,829 Stafford 161 76,178
Lichfield 166 55,740 Tamworth 176 45,521 Kidderminster 177 63,172 Dudley 181 65,030 Cannock - -
Source: PROMIS October 2004
7.7 Shopping patterns derived from the Household Telephone Survey enable us to calculate the amount of comparison goods expenditure each competing strategic centre draws from the defined Black Country catchment area. As well as strength of retail offer, this indicator takes into consideration accessibility and distance from the Black Country catchment area. The amount of expenditure lost to these centres is highlighted in Table 7.2. Details of the survey are reproduced in Appendix B, but we have identified the influence of competing strategic centres, based on this survey data, throughout the remainder of this section. The methodology used to establish the turnover and market share of different centres is explained more fully in Appendix C.
7.8 Birmingham draws the highest proportion of trade (15%) from the study area, totalling £675 million. To put this in context, Merry Hill is the strongest retail destination in the Black Country, yet draws less trade (£621 million) from the study area. Collectively the defined strategic centres i.e. Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton and the Merry Hill Shopping Centre draw £1.7 billion of comparison goods expenditure from the Black Country catchment area, representing only 39.1% of the total expenditure generated within the survey area. A further 27.7% is retained by other smaller centres and freestanding stores within the Black Country catchment area – thus giving an aggregate retention of 66.9% - and the remaining 33.1% of expenditure leaks to centres and stores beyond the Black Country catchment area.
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Table 7.2: Study Area Comparison Goods Trade Draw: Key Competing Strategic Centres Centre Comparison Goods Trade Draw % of Total Available from Catchment Area (£000) Comparison Goods Expenditure (%)
Birmingham 675.1 15.4 Merry Hill 620.5 14.2 Wolverhampton 495.4 11.3 Walsall 333.1 7.6 Cannock 141.9 3.2 Dudley 135.2 3.1 Sutton Coldfield 131.0 3.0 West Bromwich 131.2 3.0
Kidderminster 117.1 2.7 Telford 70.7 1.6 Lichfield 76.1 1.7 Redditch 56.5 1.3 Solihull 47.4 1.1 Stafford 22.7 0.5 Tamworth 23.3 0.5 Source: GVA/RTP Household Survey 2004 (see Appendix C)
COMPETING STRATEGIC CENTRES
7.9 We have examined each competing centre, focusing on its composition, influence on the Black Country catchment area (drawing on the household survey), retailer demand, and opportunities to strengthen their position and influence on the Black Country in the future. This analysis highlights which centres are likely to compete more strongly with the Black Country Centres, and influence their potential for growth.
Birmingham
7.10 Birmingham is one of six centres nationally categorised by PROMIS as a Major City, on the basis of the volume and quality of its retail offer. City centre retail floorspace in Birmingham is estimated at 300,000sq m.
7.11 Birmingham’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 7. It is evident from our analysis of shopping patterns that Birmingham city centre currently draws circa £675 million of comparison goods expenditure from the Black Country catchment area, equating to 15% of total available expenditure. The household survey indicates Birmingham draws trade from each of the 54 Zones comprising the catchment area, ranging from £0.5m in Zone 26 to £120 million in Zone 2.
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7.12 The City has a strong department store offer, bolstered by the addition of Debenhams and Selfridges at the Bull Ring, which opened in September 2003. Other department stores include Rackhams (House of Fraser), Beatties and a small Harvey Nichols at The Mailbox. Birmingham has an extensive fashion offer, ranging from discount and mass market to up-market and designer fashion. The Bull Ring is now regarded as the main focus for upmarket fashion operators in Birmingham City Centre.
7.13 Birmingham City Centre has eight managed shopping centres: The Bull Ring, The Pallasades, Priory Square, Martineau Place, Pavilion Central, The Arcadian, The Mailbox and City Plaza. There are currently two J Sainsbury foodstores in the core shopping area. Further convenience shopping is provided in the Marks & Spencer, Rackhams and Selfridges foodhalls, and on market stalls in the new Indoor Market. Marks & Spencer also have a Simply Food store on Colmore Row and Tesco opened an Express format store at The Mailbox in late 2003.
th 7.14 In April 2004, there were 111 reported requirements for Birmingham, ranking the city 14 nationally in terms of demand. The Birmingham Alliance, responsible for the Bull Ring, is now developing proposals for the second phase of Martineau Galleries – the redevelopment of Priory Square. This will increase Birmingham’s market share further, mainly at the expense of ‘higher order’ centres including Wolverhampton and Merry Hill. We examine the implications of the further growth of Birmingham for the Black Country Centres later in this report.
7.15 Birmingham City Centre has eight educational establishments, sixteen hotels, three leisure centres, three health clubs and a museum/art gallery. As the regional centre for the West Midlands, the city centre is likely to remain as the major retail, office, leisure and cultural centre serving the whole study area, and the performance of the West Midlands and Black Country economies depends on a strong and uprising regional centre. However, in key growth sectors, notably comparison retail and leisure, there is scope for the Black Country Centres to pursue parallel growth strategies which will be needed in order to maintain and potentially enhance their market share relative to Birmingham City Centre.
Solihull
7.16 Solihull is situated to the south east of Birmingham, beyond the boundary of the Black Country catchment area close to Zones 3 and 6. To the north the catchment extends just beyond the M6, whilst to the south it extends to the M40/M42. The extent of Solihull’s catchment area to the west/north west is limited by Birmingham City Centre.
7.17 Solihull draws approximately £47 million of comparison goods expenditure from the Black Country catchment area, with a market share in 19 of the 54 zones. Unsurprisingly, the centre’s strongest influence is in the southeast corner of the catchment area, notably Zones 6 and 3 where it draws £18 million and £9 million of comparison goods expenditure respectively.
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Elsewhere in the remaining 17 zones, Solihull draws a range of trade from £0.2 million to £7.4 million. Solihull’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 8.
7.18 Solihull has a town centre retail floorspace of approximately 98,000sq m gross. Floorspace almost doubled in 2001 with the completion of two schemes, namely Touchwood and an extension to Beatties department store, both of which helped strengthen the town centres position in the Experian goad retail rankings.
7.19 Touchwood has transformed Solihull’s town centre retail offer. The scheme, which was developed by Lend Lease, opened in 2001 and is anchored by John Lewis. It provides some 50,166 sq m of retail floorspace, plus an element of leisure in a “leisure and lifestyle village”. The Centre boasts a broad range of multiples. The fashion offer ranges from mid-market/young fashion multiples such as Gap, H&M, Mango, Miss Selfridge, Next and Top Shop/Top Man, to quality retailers such as FCUK, Benetton, Gant, Mexx and Planet. John Lewis also includes a number of up-market concessions, including Viyella, Windsmoor and Liz Claiborne. Other multiples in the scheme include Books etc and Superdrug, as well as specialist stores such as Art, The Entertainer and Past Times.
7.20 Mell Square is a 42,734sq m open precinct that dates from the 1960s and was extended in 1995 to accommodate BHS. A large square forms the heart of the precinct, linked to the High Street and Warwick Road by 2 main thoroughfares. The scheme is anchored by Beatties department store, a bright, spacious store which was extended in 2001 and houses a variety of up-market concessions including Planet, Jaeger and Country Casuals. Other major occupiers include Marks & Spencer, W H Smith and Woolworths. Mell Square is also home to a variety of multiples, ranging from main stream fashion outlets including Dorothy Perkins, Oasis and River Island, to more up-market independent retailers.
7.21 We are not aware of any further schemes in the retail pipeline for Solihull town centre, although the Touchwood scheme has made a significant recent contribution to strengthening the town centre as a destination. The Council also recognises the need to improve the environment of Mell Square to enhance its appearance and attraction alongside Touchwood. Retailer demand to locate in Solihull has strengthened in recent years and is currently ranked second behind Birmingham when compared to the other strategic centres assessed in this section. In April 2000 Solihull had 81 requirements from retailers to locate in the centre, equating to a rank position of 46, and in April 2004 requirements had risen to 96, equating to a rank position of 45.
Sutton Coldfield
7.22 Sutton Coldfield is located on the eastern boundary of the Black Country catchment area to the north east of Birmingham City Centre.
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7.23 The Centre draws approximately £131 million of comparison goods expenditure from the study area. Its strongest influence is on Zone 18 (40.7% market share), equating to £51 million of comparison goods expenditure. Sutton Coldfield’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 9.
7.24 Sutton Coldfield has approximately 53,000sq m gross of retail floorspace, with around 74% of the total retail floorspace accounted for by the town’s two managed shopping centres. The Gracechurch Shopping Centre (46,452 sq m gross) is located on The Parade. It opened in 1975 and is open 7 days a week. The shopping centre is anchored by BHS, Boots the Chemist and Marks & Spencer. The Gracechurch Shopping Centre has planning permission for a 4,500sq m gross extension to the retail floorspace, comprising a 4,000sq m extension to Beattie’s Department Store, a 500sq m retail unit, and a 4,400sq m health club.
7.25 There are currently two town centre schemes in the pipeline, which will contribute to improvements in retail offer. An application is currently seeking permission for a foodstore, bank and 16 upper floor flats on Birmingham Road, whilst Hawkstone Properties has revealed plans for a £30 million mixed-use scheme in Sutton Coldfield. The developer has submitted a planning application for 245 apartments, 7,400sq m of retail and leisure space, and a multi-storey car park on Brassington Avenue, adjacent to the Gracechurch shopping centre. However, with the possible exception of Walsall, neither scheme is likely to materially impact on the Black Country Centres.
Stafford
7.26 Stafford is located directly north of the Black Country, beyond the defined catchment area, closest to Zone 29 and 33. The centre has a relatively strong rank position within the top 5 competing strategic centres reviewed in this section.
7.27 Stafford draws little comparison goods expenditure from the defined Black Country catchment area compared to the other competing strategic centres. Stafford has a market share in only ten zones, equating to a trade draw of circa £22.7 million of comparison goods expenditure, or 0.5% of total available comparison goods expenditure within Zone 1-54. Stafford draws the largest proportion of this trade from Zone 29 (£7.6 million) and 33 (£11.4 million) in the north of the catchment area. Stafford’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 10.
7.28 Stafford has a relatively strong comparison retail representation including Boots, Marks and Spencers, Argos, Woolworths, WHSmith, Next, Dixons, Superdrug, Lloyds Pharmacy, Co-op Department Stores, New Look and Rosebys, but lacks an anchor department store. The centre has two managed shopping centres, the Guildhall Shopping Centre, split over three levels, opened in 1990 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 13,000sq m gross. Located at the
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heart of the town, the shopping centre comprises 35 retail units and has a walk-through link to St John’s Market. The centre is anchored by HMV, Index, JJB Sports and River Island. JJB Sports and HMV have both taken enlarged re-configured units following refurbishment in 2003.
7.29 Gaolgate Place, formerly known as the Sheridan Centre, opened in 1971 and has a retail floorspace of 4,506sq m gross. The refurbishment of the centre was completed in 2004, which included the extension of the centre to create larger units. We are not aware of any major proposals or schemes in the pipeline which are likely to have any material impact on the Black Country Centres.
Telford
7.30 Telford is located to the west of the Black Country and beyond the defined Black Country catchment area. The centre is on the M54 Motorway with easy access to the M6 in the east. Telford draws trade from 24 of the 54 zones that comprise the Black Country catchment area, totalling £71 million of comparison goods expenditure, or 1.6% of total available comparison goods expenditure in the catchment area. Telford has the strongest influence in the zones closest to its centre, including Zone 48 (37.9%), 53 (11.7%) and 54 (14.8%). Telford’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 11.
7.31 Telford has approximately 88,200sq m gross of retail floorspace, anchored by Beattie’s Department Store, BHS, Debenhams, Marks and Spencer, Woolworths and an Asda Foodstore. Focus Property Intelligence identified 20 top retailers within town centres as a benchmark with which to compare retail offer. This provides a good indication of the type of retailers represented in a town centre. Telford has a strong representation with 12 (60%) top retailers, including Boots, Marks and Spencers, Woolworths and Debenhams, WHSmith, BHS, Next, Dixons, Superdrug, New Look, HMV and Dorothy Perkins.
7.32 Telford has one managed shopping centre, the Telford Shopping Centre, which opened in 1973 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 74,300sq m gross. It is an open town centre scheme which was extended in October 2003 to provide an additional 32,500sq m gross of floorspace. The scheme, which has substantially enhanced the retail offer of Telford, is anchored by a new two level Beatties Department Store, Asda, BHS, Boots the Chemist, Debenhams, Marks and Spencer, WHSmith and Zara. Retail offer in the scheme is supplemented with circa 120 units, occupied by a wide range of national multiple retailers. There are future plans to extend the shopping centre with the construction of mixed use, leisure and open public space.
7.33 English Partnerships and Telford and Wrekin Council have evolved a blueprint for the regeneration of Telford Town Centre to be developed over the next 20 years. The plans comprise a mix of houses, shops and offices, aimed at attracting people to the centre of the 1970s built new town. The masterplan also includes proposals for a new frontage for Telford
49 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Shopping Centre, containing cafes and bars, a glass canopy leading to the town centre, and pedestrian links to the railway station. The initial planning process will be completed over the next two years, and the Development Framework is likely to be adopted at the end of January 2005.
7.34 The implications of these proposals for the Black Country Centres depends on the scale and form of retailing and other key town centre uses proposed. The main impact of further development in Telford is likely to be on the closest competing ‘higher order’ centres, including Merry Hill and Wolverhampton. However, this is likely to be offset by planned new development in these centres.
Kidderminster
7.35 Kidderminster is located within Zone 20 on the outer boundary of our defined Black Country catchment area. The town draws circa £117 million of comparison goods expenditure from the catchment area, equating to 2.7% of total available comparison goods expenditure. Kidderminster’s strongest influence is in Zone 20 with a 53.5% market share equating to £96 million of comparison goods expenditure. The centre also has a relatively strong market share in Zone 26 with a 19.2% market share, but its influence to the north and east is limited by Merry Hill. Kidderminster’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 12
7.36 Town centre retail floorspace in Kidderminster is estimated at 63,000sq m gross, anchored by Littlewoods Extra, Marks and Spencer, TJ Hughes, Woolworths, Safeway and Tesco. Focus Property Intelligence identify 20 top retailers within town centres as a benchmark with which to compare retail offer. It is a useful indicator of the type of retailers represented in town centres. Kidderminster has 12 “top retailers” (60%) including Boots, Marks and Spencers, Argos, Woolworths, WHSmith, Next, Superdrug, Lloyds Pharmacy, Wilkinson, Littlewoods, New Look and Dorothy Perkins, but lacks key anchor department stores.
7.37 Kidderminster has two managed shopping centres. The Swan Centre located at King Charles Square opened in 1969 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 9,300sq m gross, split over two levels. The centre is anchored by Argos, Boots the Chemist and Waitrose, and supplemented with a range of mid to low order comparison goods retailers, including The Body Shop, Game, The Link, Spec Savers, H Samuel and All Sports. Plans to extend the centre in 2002 were never implemented. The Roland Hill Shopping Centre is considerably smaller, comprising 6,500sq m gross of floorspace. The centre opened in 1990 and is anchored by Marks and Spencer.
7.38 The Town Centre was substantially enhanced by the opening of Weavers Wharf Retail Park in 2002, with a total floorspace of 31,000sq m gross, comprising 24,461sq m gross of retail floorspace and 6,568sq m gross of leisure floorspace. The scheme is anchored by a Tesco
50 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Superstore and benefits from a surface car park with capacity for over 1,000 vehicles. The mixed use scheme comprises retail warehousing, high street shops, restaurants, car parking and a new bus terminus. Key retailers include Next, JJB Sports, McDonalds, TK Max, Brantano and Marks and Spencer. Tesco opened in 2002, but the second phase of the scheme, including the retail element, opened in March 2004.
7.39 We are not aware of any further proposals or schemes in the pipeline to further improve the retail offer in Kidderminster Town Centre. Recent development has consolidated Kidderminster’s position in the hierarchy of strategic centres although the scale of development is not sufficient to gain a position in the top 50 centres at the national level, and the centre serves a relatively discreet catchment which is constrained by the presence of Merry Hill.
Tamworth
7.40 Tamworth is located beyond the Black Country catchment area to the east of Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council. The centre’s catchment area is restricted by a number of surrounding competing centres including Leicester to the east, Coventry to the Southeast, Birmingham and the Black Country to the south and west, Stoke-on-Trent and Kidsgrove Factory outlet centre to the Northwest and Nottingham to the Northeast. Tamworth draws trade from 10 of the 54 zones comprising the Black Country catchment area, equating to a trade draw of circa £23.3 million of comparison goods expenditure. Tamworth’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 13
7.41 The town centre retail floorspace in Tamworth is estimated at 45,500sq m gross, comprising a more limited range of retailers when compared to the other competing strategic centres. This point is highlighted by Focus Property Intelligence which identifies twenty top retailers within town centres as a benchmark with which to compare retail offer. Tamworth has a relatively weak retail representation, including Argos, Woolworths, WHSmith, Superdrug, Wilkinson, New Look, Dorothy Perkins and Rosebys.
7.42 Tamworth has one managed shopping centre, the Anchorside shopping centre which opened in 1980 and has a retail floorspace of 19,510sq m gross located on one level. The centre underwent an extension in 1992 comprising 6,500sq m gross of floorspace. The centre, which is open seven days a week, is anchored by Argos, BHS, Boots the Chemist, Iceland and Mothercare. In total the shopping centre has approximately sixty units comprising a range of mid-market multiples. Between April 2002 and March 2004 the centre secured ten new retailers following significant refurbishment works to individual units and circulation areas. Clinton Cards recently doubled its existing unit by expanding into the adjacent unit.
7.43 Our research has highlighted that there are currently no proposals or schemes in the pipeline to consolidate or enhance the retail offer in Tamworth Town Centre.
51 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Cannock
7.44 Cannock is located directly north of the Black Country, within Zone 33 of the defined survey area. Cannock draws trade from 25 of the 54 defined zones, equating to a trade draw of circa £142 million of comparison goods expenditure, or 3.2% of total available comparison goods expenditure within Zones 1 to 54. Unsurprisingly, Cannock draws the largest proportion of this trade from Zone 33 (£80 million). Cannock’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 14.
7.45 Cannock has one managed shopping centre, which opened in 1996 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 8,300sq m gross. The centre comprises 36 units and is anchored by Adams Childrenswear, Argos and New Look, and has a range of other mid-market multiples, including Birthdays, all:sports, Evans, Shoe Fayre, Burton and Specsavers.
7.46 The out of town Orbital Retail Park opened in 1995 and has a floorspace of approximately 11,100sq m gross. It was built in 2 phases; Phase 1 comprised 7 units occupied by Allied Carpets, Carpetright, Comet, Harveys, Homebase, Pets at Home and SCS; and Phase 2, includes Carpetworld and Powerhouse. The Park also contains a Sainsburys Supermarket.
7.47 An Asda foodstore is currently being constructed on an edge of centre site in Cannock, although we are not aware of any further proposals or schemes in the pipeline to significant enhance the strength of Cannock as a town centre destination, or increase its influence on the Black Country sub-region.
Lichfield
7.48 It is evident from the results of the Household Telephone Survey that despite its location within the catchment area (Zone 34), Lichfield has less influence on shopping patterns compared to other competing strategic centres located further afield. Lichfield has a market share in 16 of the 54 zones comprising the catchment area, equating to a trade draw of £76.1 million of comparison goods expenditure of 1.7% of total available comparison goods expenditure. The strongest influence is in Zone 34 (£48.8 million). Lichfield’s influence on the Black Country catchment area is illustrated on Plan 15.
7.49 Lichfield has approximately 55,740sq m gross of retail floorspace. The Three Spires Shopping Centre opened in 1965 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 12,900sq m gross, anchored by Argos and TJ Hughes. Planning consent was granted in September 2000 for the redevelopment and extension of part of the centre. Improvements included the creation of seven new retail units and a new covered arcade. Whilst the scheme did improve the retail offer in Lichfield town centre it was not sufficient to strengthen its position in the sub-regional hierarchy. We are not aware of any further plans to enhance the town centre in the future.
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Redditch
7.50 Redditch is located to the south east of the Black Country and beyond the defined Black Country Study Area. Redditch draws approximately £56.5 million of comparison goods expenditure from the area. Its strongest influence is in Zone 8 (£23.6 million), illustrated on Plan 16.
7.51 Redditch has approximately 93,800sq m gross of retail floorspace; around 76% accounted is within the Kingfisher Shopping Centre. This opened in 1973 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 97,600sq m gross and an element of leisure floorspace comprising 2,300sq m gross. The centre is split over 2 levels and has an adjacent multi-storey car park with 2,800 parking spaces. The centre is anchored by Alders, BHS, Debenhams and Marks & Spencer.
7.52 The centre is currently undergoing a phased redevelopment which has attracted 24 new retailers, including almost 400,000sqft of new shopping and leisure space and secured an 80,000sqft department store for Debenhams. The car parks have been upgraded, the bus station rebuilt and space provided for a health club and indoor food hall. Work is ongoing and in November 2003 Next and Sports World were signed up for the £70million extension of the Kingfisher Centre. Next is scheduled to open in Autumn 2004 and Sports World will open next summer.
7.53 Discussions with the local authority confirmed that there are currently no schemes in the pipeline to further improve retail and leisure offer in Redditch town centre.
SUMMARY
7.54 Independent in-centre surveys have been commissioned to provide an objective means of identifying the full extent of the Black Country Centres combined catchment area for these purposes, surveys were undertaken in Wolverhampton, West Bromwich, Walsall and Merry Hill. Drawing on this analysis we defined a household survey area, comprising 54 Zones and incorporating the Black Country and catchment areas beyond, to examine the sphere of influence of the Black Country Centres and competing strategic centres in the sub-region.
7.55 Our findings highlight the dominance of Birmingham. The City has the largest shopping population and floorspace, the highest retail rank position, retail rents, retailer requirements, and non-retail facilities. Birmingham draws a higher proportion of trade from the study area than any of the Black Country strategic centres and has increased its market share at the expense of the Black Country Centres, providing a graphic illustration of the ongoing polarisation of retail activity to lever dominant centres. This influence is set to increase in the future with the second phase of Martineau Galleries.
7.56 After Birmingham, Solihull, Sutton Coldfield and Telford are the Black Country’s main competing centres. Each centre has recently strengthened its town centre retail offer, and there are
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proposals for further development. However, with the possible exception of Telford, these are unlikely to have any material impact on the Black Country Centres. Again, in practice the potential exists to increase the market share of the Black Country Centres in the western part of the study area.
7.57 We have considered a range of alternative scenarios for the Black Country Strategic Centres, which include assumptions about the potential to increase market shares. These are described in Appendix C. However, the scope for, and impact of, any more significant expansion of any Black Country Strategic Centre on centres like Telford, beyond the levels indicated in this study, would require further detailed analysis.
7.58 Redditch, Stafford, Lichfield, Tamworth, Kidderminster and Cannock have a more limited influence on the study area and as far as we are aware, there are no major plans to substantially enhance provision in the future. Our analysis suggests each serves a relatively discreet catchment area. Recent and planned improvements in these centres are likely to do no more than retain current market shares.
7.59 Apart from the challenge posed by the continued growth of Birmingham as a dominant retail destination, and the more localised impact of the planned expansion of Telford, we do not consider that the other strategic centres, and development proposals in the sub-region pose any particular threat to the long term role of the Black Country centres. On the contrary, the Black Country Centres have the opportunity to improve their market shares within the study area, and begin to reverse the steady decline of the last few years. However, this will only be achieved if provision is made for new development of sufficient scale and quality to compete effectively with the city centre.
7.60 For forecasting purposes, we consider it is realistic to assume that the Black Country Centres retain their current market share. Given the right scale and quality of development, it may be possible to increase the combined market size of the Black Country Centres. Conversely, if insufficient new development is planned in the Black Country to keep up with forecast capacity, it will result in continued relative decline of the centres.
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8. ECONOMIC CAPACITY PROJECTIONS
8.1 We have drawn on a combination of bespoke surveys and existing/published data to develop a means of assessing global capacity for retail and commercial leisure uses, and providing a baseline for testing alternative options for the spatial distribution of new development between strategic and other centres.
8.2 The focus of the quantitative analysis is on comparison retail development, on the basis that this function is the most significant factor determining the scale of central area activity in strategic centres, and the biggest single catalyst for change in the role and function of centres. This is evident from our analysis of the different fortunes of the Black Country Centres over the last 30 years. We have developed a comprehensive model of current comparison shopping patterns, based on the results of the household interview survey described earlier.
8.3 We have also considered the capacity for key commercial leisure uses, including cinemas, bars/restaurants, and, casinos, although with the exception of certain major “destination” functions, e.g. regional casinos, these uses tend to be ancillary to the dominant comparison goods retail function of most higher order centres. These are expressed as global capacity projections.
8.4 Our analysis has been undertaken in parallel with the economic forecasts being undertaken by GHK, and the RPG housing/demographic projections, which are expected to identify the capacity/scope for additional commercial office development and housing. However, we have incorporated our own commercial perspective of the opportunities in each sector.
8.5 In developing our methodology, we have drawn on established best practice and our extensive experience in this field. In particular, GVA are closely involved in preparing the forthcoming ODPM Good Practice Guidance on Retail and Leisure need and impact assessments, which identifies the importance of regional and sub-regional strategies and sets out a number of basic guiding principles:
The need for a transparent methodology.
The need to use objective and up to date data inputs.
The need to justify the use of growth rates and key assumptions used in the analysis.
The importance of identifying alternative options and objective testing.
55 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
8.6 The methodology we have developed for the Black Country Centres Study builds on these guiding principles.
8.7 The full retail capacity analysis is set out in Appendix C. We outline the key data inputs, assumptions and conclusions below.
RETAIL CAPACITY
Catchment Area
8.8 The Household Telephone Survey, covering 4,000 households, provided detailed information on the current shopping patterns in the Black Country catchment area. The survey identifies shopping habits of households for comparison goods and includes five questions on specific comparison goods types which coincide with the Experian Business Solutions expenditure definitions of comparison goods expenditure.
8.9 Composite market shares in the comparison sector are derived through the application of two sets of weights. The first weight reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by the top three spending locations to allow for market shares to be calculated for each of the five types of comparison purchases. The second weight calculates the proportion of expenditure of each type of goods. This process defines the comparison goods market share for centres to enable calculation of their turnover in later stages of the model.
Population Growth Scenarios
8.10 For the purposes of this Study and the development of the spatial options, we initially tested our quantitative retail and commercial leisure model on three population scenarios drawn from parallel work being undertaken by Mott MacDonald:
Trendline;
Scenario H1: Incorporates RPG housing projections plus 5%. This scenario focuses new housing development on the four strategic centres and the corridors between them;
Scenario H2: Incorporates RPG housing projections plus 5%. This scenario focuses housing development on a uniform spread based on the existing pattern of housing.
8.11 The trendline population scenario is drawn from a 2001 base year, grown to a 2004 base position and forecast to 2031 based on Experians trendline projections. These show a declining population. Scenario H1 and H2 both assume the same population growth, but have been distributed differently based on alternative spatial options. The distribution of new housing has been developed through discussions with Mott Macdonald’s, the PRISM Transport Team and the
56 BLACK COUNTRY CONSORTIUM STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
Black Country Consortium. Based on the PRISM Transport model, and using the GIS mapping system, population has been distributed throughout our defined 54 Zones comprising the Black Country Catchment Area.
8.12 These projections were provided by Mott McDonald in advance of the Housing Capacity Study. The emerging conclusions of this study identify alternative spatial options for accommodating the scale of growth anticipated in the H1 scenario through a centres/corridors strategy, although delivery of this level of growth also depends on take up and the success of the economic strategy.
Population Forecasts in the Catchment Area
8.13 Overall, the population for the whole Black Country catchment area (Zone 1-54) is currently (2004) 1,891,953. In order to consider the mid and longer term forecasts, we have used projections for 2001 and 2031 to provide 10 year intervals. We consider the timescale up to 2011 is too short for strategic planning purposes, as it only relates to short term growth and takes no account of the wider Black Country Vision. Based on trend line forecasts, the study area population is set to fall to 1,868,425 by 2021, a decrease of 1.2%, and again to 1,827,439 by 2031. Between 2004 and 2031 the population within the whole catchment area is forecast to fall by 3.4%, based on the trendline projections.
8.14 Population growth within the Black Country catchment area in Scenario H1 and H2 does not vary. Following the incorporation of H1 and H2 housing projections, the population is forecast to rise to 2,039,761 by 2021, 171,336 more than in the trend based population scenario. This equates to a growth of circa 7.8% between 2004 and 2021. By 2031, the population is forecast to grow to 2,114,155, an additional 286,716 from the trendline scenario. Between 2004 and 2031 the population within the whole catchment area is forecast to grow by 11.7%.
8.15 These figures are set out in Appendix C.
Per Capita Comparison Goods Expenditure Projections
8.16 Expenditure estimates have been derived from the Experian Emarketer system. Bespoke expenditure projections on retail/leisure goods were commissioned, and broken down into eighteen different zones to ensure that differences between the current spending within different parts of the study area are properly reflected in the analysis. These are in 2002 prices and an individual estimate has been prepared for each of the eighteen ‘expenditure zones’.
8.17 We have made a deduction for special forms of trading and then generated available spend per capita for 2004, 2021 and 2031, assuming growth in available expenditure at 4.1% per annum for comparison goods. This rate, derived from Experian Business Solutions, has replaced the ultra
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long term projection of 3.6% per annum previously measured by URPI over the period since 1963, and reflects sustained high levels of per capita expenditure growth on comparison goods in recent years. Latest indications are that even this higher rate may be conservative, but we have assumed that this is a realistic growth rate to apply over the study period, allowing for inevitable fluctuations based on wider economic conditions.
8.18 The annual consumer retail expenditure per person on comparison goods in the Black Country catchment area is currently £2,322 (2002 prices) based on an average across the catchment area. Per capita expenditure on these goods will grow to £4,598 by 2021, and again to £6,871 by 2031. In 2004, per capita spending on comparison goods is circa 3.9% below the national average and in our trend based projections, this underperformance is expected to continue. If the RPG growth strategy is achieved, these expenditure estimates should be regarded as conservative.
8.19 To examine the consequence of reversing the trend of population decline, and regeneration of the Black Country economy to bring convergence of incomes and hence expenditure on retail/leisure services to the GB average, we have incorporated national average per capita spending on comparison goods when testing the options which incorporate the H1 housing growth scenario. In this scenario, the rate of growth in spend per capita in each of the individual 54 Zones is increased, so that by 2031 the overall average per capita spend for the Black Country catchment area matches the projected UK average spend.
8.20 The ‘trend’ and ‘growth’ per capita forecasts are as set out below. Under the trend scenario, the Black Country catchment area’s comparison goods per capita expenditure remains at about 96 per cent of the UK average throughout the period up to 2031. Under the growth scenarios, the Black Country catchment area’s per capita expenditure reaches 98 per cent of the UK average by 2021 and it matches the UK average in 2031.
Table 8.1: Trend/Growth Scenario Expenditure Assumptions Comparison Goods Per Capita Expenditure (2022 Prices) Trend Scenario Growth Scenarios
2004 2021 2031 2004 2021 2031
UK BC UK BC UK BC UK BC UK BC UK BC £7,159 £2,322 £2,419 £4,598 £4,791 £6,872 £7,159 £2,322 £2,419 £4,676 £4,791 £7,159
Source: Experian/GVA Grimley/RTP
Catchment Comparison Goods Expenditure
8.21 We have applied the per capita expenditure estimates to the population estimates, discussed above. In the trendline population and per capita spend scenario, total comparison goods expenditure available in the catchment area in 2004 is approximately £4,384 million, rising to
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£8,769 million in 2021, and again to £12,834 million in 2031 (see Spreadsheet 2 of Appendix C, Total Expenditure row). This growth in available expenditure equate to approximately £4,384 million between 2004 and 2021, with a further £4,065 million of growth between 2021 and 2031.
8.22 The H1 growth scenario generates significantly more comparison goods expenditure in the catchment area. In the H1 population scenario, total available comparison goods expenditure will grow to £9,538.2 million by 2021 and again to £15,069.3 million by 2031(see Spreadsheets 3 to 6 of Appendix C, Total Expenditure rows).. This scenario equates to £2,235 million of additional available expenditure by 2031 above the trendline population scenario.
8.23 The H1 growth scenario is essentially a working assumption at this stage. In discussion with the Steering Group we have confined all our subsequent detailed analysis to this scenario i.e. centres and corridors. In practice, clearly the distribution of housing growth will have consequences for the scale and form of development supportable in different centres.
Comparison Goods Turnover
8.24 Using the composite market shares derived from the household survey, and base expenditure estimates, we calculate the comparison turnover of the Black Country Centres and leakage to higher order centres, notably Birmingham City Centre. This provides an objective measure of the current performance of each centre, and detailed analysis of each centre’s catchment and shopping/leisure patterns and role within the wider retail hierarchy. The analysis covers all the principal centres. However, we have focused on the four currently defined strategic centres and Brierley Hill, given its anomalous position in the hierarchy.
8.25 Table 8.2 highlights the turnover of the strategic centres and Brierley Hill, underpinned by two population growth scenarios, i.e. trendline and H1. Using Walsall as an example, based on current market shares, and trendline population and expenditure data, the turnover of the centre is set to increase from £349 million in 2004 to £1,000 million in 2031 (Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C. Based on current market shares, population scenario H1 and convergence with national average expenditure, the turnover of Walsall is set to increase from £349 million in 2004 to £1,221 million in 2031 (Spreadsheet 8 of Appendix C). This represents an increase of £220 million above the trendline population growth scenario.
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Table 8.2: Comparison Goods Turnover in the Black Country Centres Centre Turnover 2004 (£m) Turnover 2031 (£m) Base2 Trendline3 H14
Dudley 141.92 415.76 482.47 Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 2,092.33 2,423.08 Walsall 349.74 1,000.23 1,220.97 West Bromwich 141.74 402.89 511.51 Wolverhampton 535.06 1,528.26 1,884.29
Note: Includes Strategic Centres and Brierley Hill
8.26 Within the Black Country catchment area, all town centres and freestanding stores collectively retain circa £2,931.5 million of comparison goods expenditure at present, equating to 66.9% of total available comparison goods expenditure (£4,384.3 billion). The centres identified in Table 8.2 collectively retain 39.1 per cent of the available comparison goods expenditure of the residents of the Black Country catchment area. Birmingham has the greatest influence on shopping patterns within the Black Country, currently drawing £675.3 million of comparison goods expenditure from the defined catchment area. At present, Brierley Hill/Merry Hill achieves the highest market share for those centres located within the Black Country catchment, drawing £621m million from residents of the catchment, as set out in Table 7.2.
Floorspace Efficiency Growth
8.27 One of the key variables influencing global capacity on any scenario is the adjustment used to factor in increases in floorspace efficiency. One of the main drivers to expenditure growth on comparison goods has been growth in the value, as opposed to volume of purchases. A good example is high value flat screen televisions replacing lower value, higher bulk predecessors. As a consequence, it would not be appropriate to translate the forecast growth in comparison goods retail sales shown in Table 8.2 directly into a need for additional floorspace.
8.28 Two factors need to be taken into account: -
First, the Black Country contains a multiplicity of town and district centres, with a substantial stock of retail floorspace developed to meet very different retailer requirements and economic circumstances. Translating current and forecast expenditure into floorspace requirements requires careful consideration of how existing vacant stock will be reused, and how best to achieve the transformation of obsolete space into accommodation of the right type and in the right location to meet current/future needs.
2 See Spreadsheet 1 of Appendix C 3 See Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C 4 See Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C
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Second, even if all existing retail/leisure floorspace within the Black Country was currently modern and well suited to operator requirements/consumer demands, it would be appropriate to make an allowance for continued real growth in sales of existing floorspace before planning for additional space. Traditionally, an allowance of 1.5% per annum has been made to account for anticipated real growth in existing floorspace out of forecast expenditure growth. More recently, analysis undertaken by Experian suggests that in line with higher levels of per capita expenditure growth, actual growth in retail productivity has been considerably higher.
8.29 In these circumstances, in line with emerging good practice and reflecting the long term horizon for this study, we consider circa 2.5% per annum of forecast growth over the study period should be hypothecated to support existing retail space, to drive productivity and sustain and enhance existing retail areas.
Global Capacity in the Black Country
8.30 In order to translate residual expenditure into floorspace, we have assumed a sales density of £5,500sq m net in 2004. For the reasons outlined above, we have incorporated a 2.5% per annum forecast growth in turnover for new floorspace to the period 2021 and 2031 to enable capacity to be calculated accurately in these future years. This equates to a sales density of £8,369 per sq m net in 2021 and £10,713 per sq m net in 2031.
8.31 Our assessment has identified global capacity for new comparison goods floorspace within the Black Country within the trendline population scenario, which incorporates current spend per capita forecasts and market shares. The model identifies £1,293.5 million of comparison goods residual expenditure, equating to a retail floorspace figure of 154,545sq m net in 2021 (as set out in Spreadsheet 2 of Appendix C). By 2031, we identify £2,673.1 million of residual comparison goods expenditure under the trendline scenario equating to a retail floorspace of 249,510sq m net (Spreadsheet 2 of Appendix C). Both forecasts should be regarded as conservative.
8.32 In the H1 population growth scenario, which incorporates national average spend per capita on comparison goods by 2031, we identify £1,809.9 million of residual expenditure, equating to a retail floorspace of approximately 216,257sq m net in 2021 (Spreadsheet 3 of Appendix C). Residual capacity is forecast to increase to £4,178.2 million (389,995sq m net) by 2031. Compared to the baseline scenario, the H1 scenario generates £1,505.1 million additional residual capacity and circa 140,485sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace capacity by 2031 (comparison of Spreadsheets 2 and 3 of Appendix C).
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Table 8.3: Comparison Goods Residual Capacity (£m) Trendline Residual Capacity (£m) H1 Residual Capacity (£m)
2021 2031 2021 2031
1,293.5 2,673.1 1,809.9 4,178.2
Table 8.8: Comparison Goods Residual Capacity (sq m net) Trendline Residual Capacity H1 Residual Capacity
(sq m net) (sq m net)
2021 2031 2021 2031
154,545 249,510 216,257 389,995
8.33 Table 8.4 identifies global capacity in sq m net. Table 8.4 incorporates a 10% element of A2/A3 uses and non comparison sales, and converts floorspace into sq m gross using a 75% net:gross ratio.
Table 8.5: Comparison Goods Residual Capacity (Sq .m Gross) Trendline Capacity H1Capacity
2021 2031 2021 2031
Sq m net 154,545 249,510 216,257 389,995
10% A2/A3 171,731 277,243 240,291 433,347 Sq m gross 228,975 369,658 320,388 577,796 (75% net:gross)
8.34 A proportion of identified capacity is already accounted for by retail commitments. Our assessment has identified a number of major comparison goods commitment proposals in the strategic/non strategic centres. These are outlined in Table 8.6 and discussed further in Section 9. In total, they comprise 234,014 sq m gross of comparison goods retail floorspace. Table 8.7 highlights residual capacity in the trendline and H1 population growth scenarios following the implementation of commitments/major policy proposals.
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Table 8.6: Commitments / major policy proposals in the Black Country as at October 2004 Centre Scheme Comparison Goods Floorspace (sq m gross)
Wolverhampton Core Expansion 46,450
Wolverhampton * Other Town Centre 2,401
Wolverhampton Raglan Street 8,361
Wednesfield Bentley Bridge 14,672
West Bromwich Town Centre 18,600
Oldbury Foundry Site 35,315
Great Bridge Asda Mezzanine 3,112
Wednesbury Axle Tree Way 3,016
Cape Hill Windmill Centre 3,732
Oldbury Churchbridge 3,239
Brierley Hill ** Brierley Hill Vision 47,391
Dudley Flood Street 15,500
Halesowen Town Centre 4,500
Stourbridge Town Centre 4,500
Walsall Digbeth 23,225
TOTAL 234,014 Source: Local Planning Authority Notes: * Includes Pipers Row and Worcester Street ** Includes Brierley Hill Vision and extant consents Excludes other small scale commitments/proposals
Table 8.7: Residual Capacity (sq m gross) Following Implementation of Commitments Trendline Capacity H1 Capacity
(sq m gross) (sq m gross)
2021 2031 2021 2031
-5,039 135,644 86,374 343,782 Source: Tables 8.5/8.6
8.35 On this basis, even using the conservative trend based figures, there will be sufficient capacity to substantially support all the major commitments/proposals before 2021, and a need to identify significant further opportunities for town centre comparison retail development by 2031 just in order to retain current market shares. In the H1 growth scenario, the forecast deficit will be significantly higher.
8.36 These projections have significant implications for the centres strategy. They provide the first robust assessment of long term strategic shopping needs in the sub-region, based on the Black Country Vision, and indicate that even assuming the development of all current commitments/proposals (including expansion of Brierley Hill), in the growth scenario there will be a shortfall in provision by 2021 and a significant failure to meet the shopping needs of the Black Country by 2031.
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8.37 Failure to make adequate provision for the scale and quality of comparison shopping floorspace needed is likely to result in continued decline in the combined market share of the Black Country Centres. Within the Black Country, in line with national trends, we expect the dominant centres of Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill will maintain and enhance their position, but overall without significant additional development in the Black Country we expect the pattern of relative decline evident over the last 30 years will continue.
LEISURE EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS
8.38 For the purposes of commercial leisure capacity forecasts, where it is not possible to undertake the same detailed analysis of market shares, we have based our model on the four Black Country authorities, Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton, which we consider is an appropriate sphere of influence and catchment area for leisure destinations.
Population Forecasts in the Catchment Area
8.39 The population of the four Boroughs is currently 1,074,143 (2004). In the trendline scenario, it is forecast to decrease to 1,029,949 by 2021 and again to 996,584 by 2031. Between 2004 and 2031 the population in the four boroughs is forecast to decrease by 7%.
8.40 In the H1 growth scenario the population is forecast to increase to 1,119,596 by 2021, equating to an additional 89,647 people above the trendline population scenario. This equates to a growth of circa 3% between 2004 and 2021. By 2031, the population of the four Boroughs is forecast to grow to 1,138,147, an additional 141,563 from the trendline population scenario.
Leisure Goods Expenditure Projections
8.41 The Experian E-marketer Report calculates annual consumer leisure expenditure per person on leisure and recreation goods and services in 2002, based upon the demographic profile of the catchment area. Leisure expenditure as defined by Experian includes recreation and sporting services, cultural services, games of chance and bars/restaurants.
8.42 We have taken the base position and projected available expenditure per capita leading up to 2031, assuming an ultra long term growth rate in available expenditure of 2% per annum for leisure goods. This ultra long term growth rate figure is derived from Experian Business Solutions.
Table 8.8 : Per Capita Leisure Goods Expenditure Adjustments 2004 (£) 2021 (£) 2031 (£) 1,374 1,924 2,345 Source: Experian Business Solutions, Emarketer, 2004
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8.43 The annual consumer expenditure per person on leisure goods, in the four boroughs is currently £1,321 (2002 prices) based on an average across the four boroughs. Per capita expenditure on these goods will grow to £1,924 by 2021 and again to £2,345 by 2031 (Table 8.8). At present (2004) per capita spending on leisure goods in the Black Country is circa 12% below the national average.
8.44 We have incorporated national average per capita spending on leisure goods when testing the options which incorporate the H1 housing growth scenario. It is evident from Table 8.9 that total leisure expenditure in the study area is forecast to grow significantly from 1,539 to 2,626 between 2004 and 2031.
Table 8.9 : Per Capita Leisure Goods Expenditure Adjustments 2004 (£) 2021 (£) 2031 (£)
1,539 2,155 2,626
Source: Experian Business Solutions, Emarketer, 2004
8.45 The total baseline leisure expenditure available in the Black Country in 2004 is currently £1,479 million, rising to £1,988 million in 2021 and again to £2,345 million in 2031 an overall growth of £866 million or about 58%.
Table 8.10: Total Leisure Goods Expenditure - Trendline 2004 (£000) 2021 (£000) 2031 (£000)
1,479,845 1,988,466 2,345,887
8.46 With the H1 scenario, as identified in table 8.11 a higher total leisure goods expenditure is created. Our calculations therefore show that available leisure goods expenditure will grow to £2,157 million by 2021 again £2,673 million by 2031. This scenario equates to £327 million of additional available expenditure by 2031 above the trendline population scenario, or total growth of about £1,193 million or 81%.
Table 8.11: Total Leisure Goods Expenditure – With H1 projections 2004 (£000) 2021 (£000) 2031 (£000)
1,479,845 2,157,712 2,672,917
8.47 Our assessment highlights the significant growth in available leisure expenditure between 2004 and 2031. The demand for additional quality leisure facilities will naturally grow as the population increases, and within the catchment area, the current network of strategic centres and Brierley Hill, will remain the main policy focus for leisure growth.
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Key Leisure Destinations
8.48 Below the global leisure growth projections outlined above, we have undertaken more detailed analysis of two sub sectors. Cinemas perform a key ‘anchor’ function, and require economies of scale. As such, we have examined how many new facilities will be supported. We have also examined the Casino/Gaming market as this represents a significant new growth sector, which ODPM indicates the RSS should address. Like cinemas, the market for large / regional scale casinos is such that in practice only a limited number of facilities will be supportable. As a consequence, careful consideration needs to be given to defining appropriate centres in which to accommodate the identified capacity.
(i) Cinema Capacity
8.49 We have undertaken a quantitative need assessment for new cinemas within the four Black Country authorities. The methodology compares population per screen UK average with population per screen in the Black Country. The shortfall highlights the need for new screens to bring the Black Country in line with the national average. The process also projects forward to 2021/2031 taking into consideration population forecasts and the consequent growth in the need for cinema screens.
8.50 Table 8.12 highlights the number of screens within Black Country Authorities boundaries. It is evident that cinemas towards the outer boundary of the catchment area draw a larger proportion of trade from beyond. This exercise suggests the Black Country is currently served by 47.6 cinema screens located within the four Borough boundaries.
Table 8.12: Number of Cinema Screens Serving Catchment
Cinema No.of % of Screens Screens Catchment Serving Local Overlap authority boundaries
UCI, Merry Hill 10 80 8
Showcase, Dudley 14 100 14
Odeon, Halesowen 4 50 2 Showcase, Walsall 12 90 10.8
Cineworld, Wolverhampton 14 80 11.2 Light House, Wolverhampton 2 80 1.6
TOTAL 47.6
8.51 Inevitably residents in the Boroughs will also use the extensive facilities outside this area, particularly in Birmingham, which is not taken into account in the projections.
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Trendline Population Growth
8.52 Table 8.13 outlines the population per screen in the UK and Black Country local authority areas projecting provision to 2004, 2021 and 2031. Using the trendline population figures it is evident that in our projected years the Black Country has more people per screen than the national average, suggesting a deficiency in cinema provision and/or likelihood that residents of the four Boroughs are using facilities situated outside the area.
Table 8.13: Population Per Screen
Estimated Population No. of Screens Population Per Screen (m)
UK (2004) 59.16 3,370 17,555
Black Country (2004) 1.074 47.6 22,563
UK (2021) 61.14 5,255 11,635
Black Country (2021) 1.029 47.6 21,618
UK (2031) 62.24 6,505 6,568
Black Country (2031) 0.997 47.6 20,945
8.53 Table 8.14 draws on the comparison with the UK average and illustrates the capacity for additional cinema provision within the Black Country, on the assumption that the four Boroughs serve their own needs and attract a level of patronage from beyond. On this basis, our assessment highlights capacity for an additional 14 (2004), 41 (2021) and 57 (2031) cinema screens within the Black Country to meet national average cinema provision based on our baseline population figures. Even if the trendline position overestimates current capacity, by ignoring the effects of facilities just beyond the area, the ratio of screens per capita is expected to grow over the period 2031 generating further demand for additional cinemas.
Table 8.14: Capacity for Additional Cinema Provision in the Black Country Authorities
Shortfall of Black Country Cinemas UK Population Per Cinema Screens Authorities Necessary to Screen in Black Country Population Match UK Average Authorities
2004 1,074,143 16,076 67 14
2021 1,029,949 11,635 89 41
2031 996,584 9,568 104 57
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H1 Population Growth Cinema Capacity
8.54 Tables 8.15 outlines the population per screen in the UK and Black Country. Using the H1 housing growth scenario it is evident that in 2004, 2021 and 2031 the Black Country has more people per screen than the national average highlighting an even greater deficiency in cinema provision.
Table 8.15: Population Per Screen
Estimated Population No. of Screens Population Per Screen (m)
UK (2004) 59.16 3,370 17,555
Black Country (2004) 1.074 47.6 22,563
UK (2021) 61.14 5,255 11,635
Black Country (2021) 1.12 47.6 23,529
UK (2031) 62.24 6,505 9,568
Black Country (2031) 1.14 47.6 23,950
8.55 Table 8.16, as before, draws on the comparison with the UK average and illustrates the capacity for additional cinema provision within the Black Country Authorities. Our assessment highlights need for an additional 14 (2004), 49 (2021) and 71 (2031) cinema screens within the Black Country to meet national average cinema provision.
8.56 This almost certainly overstates capacity, by assuming retention of all potential cinema visits within the Black Country Boroughs. However, the opportunity for new cinema provision is still likely to be significant up to 2021 and beyond.
Table 8.16: Capacity for Additional Cinema Provision in the Black Country Authorities Shortfall of Black Country Cinemas UK Population Per Cinema Screens Authorities Necessary to Screen in Black Country Population Match UK Average Authorities
2004 1,074,143 17,555 61 14
2021 1,119,596 11,635 96 49
2031 1,138,147 9,568 119 71
Note: These estimates should be regarded as highly optimistic.
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(ii) Casino / Gaming Capacity
Market Size Post Deregulation
8.57 Casino expenditure within the Black Country Local Authorities can be established by combining Experian’s breakdown of gambling expenditure per capita and Mintel’s estimates of the casino market. As detailed below in Table 8.17, a breakdown of the catchment populations expenditure per capita identifies the extent of the existing gaming market within The Black Country Authorities and from this the current level of casino expenditure estimated.
Table 8.17: Existing Casino Expenditure
Gaming Expenditure Casino Expenditure Year Total Population £ (m) £ (m)
Base
2005 1,074,143 174.01 15.66
2021 1,029,949 400.65 36.05
2031 996,584 649.77 58.47
With H1 and H2 Projections
2005 1,074,143 174.01 15.66
2021 1,119,596 435.52 39.19
2031 1,138,147 742.07 66.79
Notes: 1: Gaming Expenditure based on “games of chance” spend per capita of £150 - As per Experian Retail Planner Report issued June 2004. 2: Casino expenditure assumed as 9% of total gaming market. As per Mintel net gambling expenditure - Mintel Gambler, Nov 2002. 3: 2002 Prices 4: Gaming expenditure grown at 5.3% as per the average growth of casino stakes over the last 5 years - Mintel Gambler, Nov 2002.
8.58 If the market remains subject to the current legislative regulations, using the trendline household projections, it is estimated that as a result of increases in gambling expenditure per head, total expenditure in Casinos from within the boroughs will total £15.4 million by 2005 and exceed £58 million by 2031. Using the H1 projections the total expenditure figure increases to approximately £66.8 million.
8.59 In submissions to the Joint Committee on the Draft Gambling Bill, the Cross Industry Group for the gaming industry (CIG) has formulated, in partnership with Pion Economics, an impact model to establish the existing level of expenditure within casinos and to estimate the level to which this will increase following deregulation. Whilst relatively complex in detail, Pion Economics detail the CIG impact model as:
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“A baseline position is established that accords with “known “features of the existing gambling landscape. This baseline is then adjusted to reflect a “post- regulation” environment and impact of change assessed in terms of various parameters…”
8.60 Accordingly Pion have developed a baseline position i.e. current, that has been balanced back to evidence of existing UK adult participation with average spend/visit/play figures set in accordance with reported sector profiles, namely that:
adult participation in UK Casinos equates to 3%;
each participant makes on average, 9 visits to casinos per annum;
average spend per casino visit is currently £55.
8.61 The CIG Impact Model has been formulated to anticipate the increase in the market following deregulation as opposed to the ongoing evolution of the market and as such does not make any allowance for year on year expenditure increases per capita. The baseline model assumptions would suggest that in 2005, the earliest Pion assumed new legislation could come into force, existing casino expenditure within the study area will total £12.4 million.
8.62 Following deregulation the level of participation in casino gambling is expected to rise significantly. Based on input from the Cross Industry Gambling Group, the Pion model assumes that post deregulation participation in casino gambling should be remodelled at a rate of 10% with average trips increasing to around 12% per annum, whilst average spend is anticipated to decline to £45 per visit. These assumptions have been applied to the Black Country catchment below to estimate what the possible casino spend within the catchment may be following deregulation.
8.63 In reaching a view on these judgements it is important to note that a post deregulation participation rate of only 10% is relatively low in relation to experience elsewhere. In the US for example participation can be as high as 40% in some states, and averages 26% across the US as a whole. We have used these working assumptions therefore as a conservative basis upon which to examine the gaming market within the study area.
8.64 A conservative estimate therefore suggests that the casino market within the study area will expand to over £45 million in 2005. The CIG Impact Model indicates that as a result of deregulation casino expenditure in the study area will grow by a factor of 3.64. Again, this does not allow for year on year growth of the market but increased participation following deregulation.
8.65 To provide a full picture of how the market may evolve we have applied the factor of growth resulting from the Pion model to Experian’s nationally sourced data on the current level of gambling expenditure.
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Table 8.18: Future Casino Spend- Baseline Year Total Population Existing Casino Expenditure Anticipated Casino Expenditure £ (m) £ (m) Base
2005 1,074,143 15.66 57.00
2021 1,029,949 36.05 131.22
2031 996,584 58.47 212.8
With H1 / H2 Projections
2005 1,074,143 15.66 57.00
2021 1,119,596 39.19 142.65
2031 1,138,147 66.79 234.12
Notes: Anticipated Casino Expenditure assumed at factor of 3.64
8.66 A more realistic estimate is therefore that following deregulation casino expenditure will grow to approximately £57 million, and that as a result of year on year growth the level of expenditure, within the four boroughs using trendline projections, will exceed £131 million by 2021 and rise to over £212 million in 2031. In the H1 scenario, we anticipate the projections rising to over £142 million in 2021 and £234 million by 2031 (Table 8.18).
8.67 This assessment is based on existing levels of growth. It is anticipated that following deregulation casino’s will be able to establish themselves as a mainstream leisure activity and as such the annual growth in casino expenditure is likely to exceed that of the last five years.
Current / Forecast Capacity
8.68 There are currently five casinos within the Black Country Catchment Area. Based on operations of Casinos within other countries we have been advised that, on average, slot machines generate £33,000 of expenditure per annum whilst gaming tables generate, on average, £300,000 per annum. Using these informed judgements we have sought to model the existing turnover of the casino facilities within the Catchment area of the Black Countries. It should be noted that the COICOPS breakdown applied relates solely to expenditure on gambling. The figures formulated below therefore represent the anticipated turnover of the gaming floorspace. Mintel suggests that of the £695 million net expenditure in casinos in 2001, £61 million was spent on food and drink.
8.69 Combined casino turnover within the study area is therefore anticipated to total nearly £13.4 million at the current time. This would suggest that these facilities are currently over trading or that people within The Black Country Authorities are having to travel to other major conurbations to visits such facilities.
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Table 8.19: Current Turnover of existing casinos Year Anticipated Casino Total Turnover of Turnover within Existing Casinos Casino Expenditure £ (m) £ (m) £ (m) Base
2005 57 £13.4 43.6
2021 131 £13.4 117.6
2031 213 £13.4 199.6
With H1 / H2 Projections
2005 57 £13.4 43.6
2021 143 £13.4 129.6
2031 234 £13.4 220.6
Note: Information on existing casinos with Black Country from national databases.
8.70 It is evident that post deregulation the market in the Black Country will be able to sustain a significantly improved casino offer. On baseline figures, we envisage surplus growth in 2021 exceeding £118 million rising to £200 million in 2031, as identified in Table 8.19. Using H1 projections expenditure growth will in 2021 will total approximately £130 million increasing to over £221 million 2031.
(iii) Restaurant/Café Expenditure
8.71 According to Experian Business Solutions (2002), the average person spends £985 per annum in restaurants/cafes. Experian also estimate that people’s average likely spend on leisure goods such as eating out increases by 2% each annum. Currently the trendline total spend available for restaurant/cafés is £960 million, increasing to £1,521 million in 2031, as identified in Table 8.20. When testing the projections using the H1 scenario the figures increase from £966 million in 2004 to over £1,733 million in 2031.
Table 8.20: Restaurant / Café Expenditure Forecasts – Trendline
Projection 2004 (£000) 2021 (£000) 2031 (£000)
Baseline 959,546 1,289,289 1,520,960
With H1 and H2 scenario 965,533 1,399,102 1,733,183
Source: Experian Business Solutions, Emarketer, 2004
8.72 On this basis, in our trendline capacity, there is sufficient growth to sustain a circa 60% growth in this sector. The H1 scenario indicates some 80% growth in the overall market size. Clearly the profile of the catchment population in this scenario, with a higher proportion of ABs, will sustain significant growth in both the scale and quality of restaurant / café in the strategic and other Black Country Centres.
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(iv) Office Capacity
8.73 At this stage we have drawn on the preliminary GHK Analysis of the spatial implications of the proposed economic strategy to indicate the scale of new office development which will be needed in the Black Country Centres in order to meet current and future demand based on their baseline and ‘new economy’ scenarios and their expectations of future development densities.
8.74 GHK estimate that the ‘new economy’ scenario requires additional floorspace of 9% or 1.1m sq m by 2031. The policy of increasing concentration of economic activities in centres, in line with national policy guidance, points to the requirement for an increase of office floorspace in centres of 25%, or 900,000 sq m net but only a negligible decline in office requirements outside the centres, as a reduced requirement for manufacturing floorspace is offset by an increase in demand for logistics and distribution.
8.75 We estimate that total office take up in the Black Country has averaged circa 37,000 sq m per annum over the last three years, although a large proportion is second hand / refurbished stock, and is generally let to local occupiers. Over 30 years, this take up rate equates to, in total, 1.11 million sq m of offices i.e. new/used space in and out of centre. This illustrates the level of aspiration which underpins the GHK target for new in centre space. However, the more detailed Employment Capacity Study currently being undertaken will address this issue in more detail.
8.76 These projections indicate that in order to successfully transform the Black Country economy, consistent with reversing population decline and achieving economic performance in line with the GB average (i.e. the H1 scenario) it will be necessary to make provision for a substantial scale of new city centre office development which will need to be focused in strategic, highly accessible locations. Based on our review of current opportunities/proposals in the strategic centres, there is no provision at present, or in any emerging strategy, for anything approaching this figure.
8.77 Given the key function of the strategic centres, we consider that within the Primary Shopping Area (PSA) priority should be given to securing higher order retail and complementary leisure developments on key town and city centre sites. The provision of additional office, and indeed residential mixed use based development within and adjoining the strategic centres will serve to increase their diversity and vitality, and reinforce their local retail and leisure catchment populations, but should be directed to the edge of the PSA, and other strategic locations identified in the Employment Capacity Study. This balance needs to be addressed through the LDF process which will define town centre boundaries and the appropriate mix of uses for different parts of the centre.
8.78 However, we consider that accommodating the scale of office development indicated by GHK in strategic centres alone is likely to prove unachievable by 2031, even assuming a radical review of current strategic sites. The focus within the defined/extended PSA of the defined strategic
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centres should be on the higher order comparison/leisure and associated facilities which underpin their role in the network.
SUMMARY
8.79 We have undertaken economic capacity projections for key town centre uses, notably comparison retail and leisure, and reviewed the conclusions of GHK in respect of commercial office requirements. In each case we have examined global capacity arising in the trendline and H1 housing growth assumptions, and assuming per capital spending in the Black Country achieves convergence with the GB average in these growth scenarios.
8.80 In the comparison sector, total comparison expenditure is projected to increase from £4.38 billion in 2004 to £12.83 billion in 2031 in the trendline scenario. In the H1 scenario, total expenditure is expected to increase to over £15 billion by 2031 i.e. total growth of more than 300%. After allowing for 2.5% growth in efficiency of existing comparison retail floorspace, we estimate capacity of circa 370,000 sq m gross by 2031 in the trendline scenario, and circa 578,000 sq m gross in the H1 scenario.
8.81 After allowing for current commitments/major policy proposals in the Black Country Centres and assuming a constant market share, this leaves a residual capacity of circa 136,000 sq m gross by 2031 in the trendline, and circa 344,000 sq m gross in the H1 scenario. We consider the baseline projections are likely to be conservative, and the H1 scenario is overly optimistic, but in accordance with the instructions of the Steering Group, have adopted the H1 scenario for the purposes of defining the centres strategy.
8.82 These projections have significant implications for the centres strategy. They provide the first robust assessment of strategic shopping needs, and indicate that even assuming the development of all current commitments/proposals (including expansion of Brierley Hill) there will be a shortfall in provision by 2021 and a significant failure to meet the shopping needs of the Black Country by 2031.
8.83 Failure to make adequate provision, for the scale and quality of comparison shopping needed is likely to result in continued decline in the combined market share of the Black Country Centres. Within the Black Country, we expect the dominant centres of Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill will maintain and enhance their position, but overall without significant additional development in the Black Country we expect the pattern of relative decline evident over the last 30 years will continue.
8.84 Total expenditure on leisure goods in the Black Country is currently £1.48 billion, and predicted to increase to £2.34 billion by 2031, an overall growth of £866m or about 58% in the trendline scenario. In the H1 growth scenario, total leisure expenditure is predicted to increase by circa
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£1.2 billion or 81%. Within these global estimates the main commercial leisure elements which are potentially of strategic significance and likely to underpin plans for the centres are cinemas and, following deregulation of the gaming industry, the potential for one or more major regional casinos within the Black Country.
8.85 In our trendline scenario we estimate a current capacity for circa 14 cinema screens within the Black Country, increasing to 57 by 2031. The effect of population growth in the H1 scenarios is to generate an indicative requirement for 71 screens, although this scenario is highly optimistic. On any basis, we anticipate significant potential to incorporate further cinema provision to meet identified deficiencies e.g. Walsall/West Bromwich, and supplement existing facilities in all the strategic centres.
8.86 At present, the casino market in the Black Country is limited, with an estimated current expenditure of only £15m which is broadly consistent with the existing provision of 5 casinos in Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich. However, the effect of population growth and deregulation suggests the casino sector will increase to circa £199m by 2031 in the trendline scenario, and over £220m in the H1 scenario, suggesting scope for additional provision including potentially up to two regional scale casinos within the Black Country over this period.
8.87 In the restaurant/café sector, in the baseline scenario we estimate growth of circa 60% in the Black Country market. The optimistic H1 scenario indicate 80% growth in this sector, which, coupled with an increasingly affluent population, will sustain significant growth in the scale and quality of eating/drinking facilities within both the strategic and other defined Black Country Centres. While there is no generally accepted basis on which to translate this capacity into floorspace requirements, the scale of growth and increased affluence in the H1 scenario suggests a radical transformation in the character of the Black Country Centres.
8.88 There is no generally accepted methodology for identifying ‘cultural capacity’, i.e. the opportunities for theatre, art, galleries, museums etc. However, the transformation of the Black Country economy and scale of growth anticipated in the H1 scenario suggests significant growth in the sectors, focussed principally in the strategic centres.
8.89 In these circumstances we consider the primary consideration should be to make adequate provision for meeting defined ‘higher order’ comparison needs in the strategic Black Country Centres, to begin to address the relative decline of the last 30 years and provide the essential catalyst for growth and investment in the centres. In order to meet comparison shopping needs, it will be necessary to maximise the capacity of existing centres and it may be necessary to safeguard key expansion opportunities from alternative uses if the scale of development required is to be met in defined centres.
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8.90 The GHK Economic Study indicates a global requirement for circa 900,000 sq m net of additional new office floorspace in defined centres in the period up to 2031 in order to deliver their ‘new economy’ scenario. Based on the past three years take up in the Black Country of only 37,000 sq m total, (mainly comprising used stock) this scale of new development is highly ambitious, and suggests that even if it is possible to significantly expand the defined strategic and other centres in order to accommodate this scale of development, this scale of development is unlikely to be achieved.
8.91 Accommodating the combined scale of forecast requirements for retail, leisure and office provision, together with associated cultural facilities and the needs for new residential development represents a significant challenge for the defined strategic centres. Even on our baseline projections, we anticipate it may prove difficult to accommodate identified needs within the strategic centres in line with RPG. However, without detailed urban capacity assessments to examine the availability of land for retail, residential, leisure, office and cultural uses in each centre, it is not possible to quantify the scale of any shortfall.
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9. DEFINING THE NETWORK OF CENTRES
9.1 This section provides an overview of centres, which we consider could have the potential to function at a strategic level within the Black Country. This section examines the role, size and nature of the centres within the Black Country to provide the context for our analysis of options for the network of strategic centres in the next section of this report, and to identify the complementary role of non strategic centres, to be developed in individual LDFs.
9.2 Our analysis draws on previous studies undertaken by, and for the Local Planning Authorities in relation to the centres and our own site survey work, supplemented by other empirical data where available. This includes the results of our qualitative modelling, using the household survey data, to indicate current turnover/trading performance.
9.3 Table 9.1 below sets out the centres which have been considered as part of our assessment. We have determined those centres which could potentially be ‘strategic’ based on their identified role within the respective UDPs and a range of indicators including floorspace, number of foodstores, vacancy rates, retailer demand, range of other uses and aspirations for growth.
9.4 The location of the centres selected for more detailed analysis are shown on Plan 17.
Table 9.1: The Black Country Centres Local Planning Authority Centre Hierarchy within Respective UDP Wolverhampton City Council Wolverhampton City Centre Bilston Town Centre Wednesfield Town Centre Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council Brierley Hill Strategic Centre Dudley Strategic Centre Halesowen Town Centre Stourbridge Town Centre Sandwell Metropolitan Borough West Bromwich Main Town Centre Council Blackheath Town Centre Cradley Heath Town Centre Great Bridge Town Centre Oldbury Town Centre Wednesbury Town Centre Cape Hill Town Centre Bearwood Town Centre Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council Walsall Main Town Centre Aldridge District Centre Bloxwich District Centre Brownhills District Centre Willenhall District Centre
Darlaston District Centre Shaded centres denote strategic centres as defined in RPG11
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WOLVERHAMPTON
9.5 Wolverhampton is defined as a City Centre within the Revised Deposit Wolverhampton UDP, March 2004. Wolverhampton is a key centre within the Black Country and is a focus for shopping, employment and cultural activities. It is an important driver of the sub-region’s economy and a catalyst for regeneration in the area.
9.6 Wolverhampton is the largest centre within the Black Country with a floorspace of 135,520 sq m gross. The centre is focused towards providing higher order comparison retailing and contains some 250 multiple retailers. According to Experian Goad, in October 2003, 46.88% of units within the centre were in comparison use which is slightly below the national average. There are two department stores, including the flagship Beatties store and a rather dated TJ Hughes. Other retailers in the centre include Marks and Spencer, WHSmith River Island, Principles and New Look.
9.7 Convenience provision in the town centre includes Tesco Metro, Netto, Iceland and Co-op and a J Sainsbury superstore on the edge of the town centre boundary. Planning permission exists for a new food superstore and retail warehouse development at Raglan Street, on the western edge of the City Centre. In addition to retail uses, the centre is a major focus for leisure, cultural and civic uses. These include an art gallery, cinema and civic hall. Wolverhampton contains a university, and a diverse mix of cafes, bars and restaurants.
9.8 Vacancy rates within the centre stood at 16.37% of total units in October 2003 which is some 6% above the national average. Nonetheless, Wolverhampton is experiencing a strong level of demand from operators. According to Focus, there were 72 operators seeking floorspace within Wolverhampton at September 2004. These include demand from comparison retailers such as Ethel Austin, Argos, JJB and Superdrug. There is also demand from public house and restaurant operators. The level of demand suggests a mismatch between the range and quality of available floorspace and that demanded by operators.
9.9 A number of initiatives are in place for the next 5-6 years to ensure Wolverhampton achieves its overall objective to become a top 30 regional centre. The current initiatives are as follows:
Wolverhampton City Council prepared the City Centre Core Expansion Development Brief for the Cleveland Street site (3.2ha). More recently, AM Developments UK Ltd, have been appointed to implement a £210m retail led mixed use scheme (500,000 sq ft retail) with 80- 90 retail units anchored by one department store; one large leisure use, possibly a cinema; a mix of A3 uses; 100-150 residential units; and 800 underground parking spaces.
The City Centre Strategy and Action Plan, 2004, recognises the highly successful existing and proposed regeneration and development projects as part of the St John’s Urban Village
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scheme, including the flagship Market Square Development, Little Brickkiln Street, The Learning Quarter and the School Street site. The action plan will help inform planning policy and be used as a tool against which to measure proposals for specific sites.
9.10 Based on the household telephone survey, the total turnover of Wolverhampton for comparison goods expenditure is about £535m at 2004. Excluding Merry Hill, this is the largest turnover of any centre within the study area and reflects the status of the centre and it importance to the sub- region’ economy. This is illustrated by the extent of Wolverhampton catchment area, show on Plan 18. The development proposals for the centre will enhance the attraction of Wolverhampton as a retail and leisure centre, and it clearly has a key role to play in meeting the forecast capacity for further retail, leisure, office and other key city centre functions over the study area.
BILSTON
9.11 Bilston is defined as a town centre within the Revised Deposit Wolverhampton UDP, March 2004. Bilston is based on traditional high street with the main retail core focused on Church Street and the High Street.
9.12 The centre has a gross floorspace of 32,595 sq m. Convenience provision represented 40% of the centre’s total units at July 2002, which is significantly above the current national average of 12.68% and illustrates the dominance of convenience retailing in the centre. Foodstores include an edge-of-centre Morrisions and Lidl, Iceland and Kwik Save on the High Street and Church Street.
9.13 Comparison provision represents just under 30% of all units, and includes Woolworths, Boots and Ethel Austin and a number of independent comparison retailers. The centre includes a number of service uses, including banks, hot food takeaways and public houses. Other uses in the centre include Government buildings, social club, nightclub, and religious buildings.
9.14 Vacancy rates in the centre stood at 15.4% of units in July 2002. This is above the current national average of 10.32%. Focus identified 3 requirements from operators seeking floorspace in Bilston at September 2004, but none is likely to significantly alter its role as an everyday convenience and services based centre. No market shares were attributed to Bilston for comparison goods shopping in the household telephone survey.
9.15 The Revised Deposit UDP identifies a number of proposals for Bilston but these are essentially focussed around environmental improvements to the centre, particularly the historic centre. The Bilston Urban Village proposals on land adjoining the centre will provide significant new residential and employment provision over the next 10 years. However we are not aware of any significant town centre retail/leisure development proposals in the pipeline, and as a
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consequence, we consider the centre is unlikely to develop a strategic role within the wider network of centres.
WEDNESFIELD
9.16 Wednesfield is defined as a Town Centre within the Revised Deposit Wolverhampton UDP, March 2004. Wednesfield is small centre based on a traditional High Street which essentially meets the day-to-day shopping and service needs of the local population.
9.17 The centre has a total gross floorspace of 6,140 sq m gross, and contains a small Somerfield Supermarket, along with Greggs and a number of independent convenience retailers. Woolworths provides the only significant comparison offer within the centre. However, the centre has a reasonable range of banks and other service uses, a health centre, library, religious buildings, community offices, emergency services and government buildings.
9.18 At July 2001, the vacancy rate in the centre was very low at just 1.8% of units. The latest survey by Experian Goad in February 2003, indicates that vacancy rates have remained stable. Focus identified two requirements from retailers seeking floorspace in the centre at September 2004. Iceland were seeking a unit of 3,000 sq ft, while the Big Food Group were seeking a unit of between 3,000 – 12,000 sq ft.
9.19 The Revised Deposit UDP, identifies the High Street/Market Retail core as an area where the Council will encourage improvements to the quality and range of shopping facilities through refurbishment and redevelopment. Wednesfield retail market is proposed to be permanently relocated on Wednesfield High Street. We are not aware of any development proposals in the pipeline.
9.20 At Bentley Bridge, to the west of Sainsbury, permission has been granted for further retail and leisure development (‘Bentley Bridge Park’). The leisure component was implemented in the form of a multiplex cinema, health and fitness centre and bingo hall (now closed) together with fast food outlets. Construction has recently commenced on the retail component (14,700 sq m).
9.21 The Council’s intention for retail expansion at Bentley Bridge was to add retail warehousing to the food superstore to complement Wednesfield village centre. However, the area was eventually more extensive and more remote from the village centre, than had been envisaged. As a result the leisure complex, and the committed further retailing, is in an out of centre location.
DUDLEY
9.22 Dudley is defined as a Strategic Centre within the Revised Deposit Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council UDP, February 2002. Dudley’s retail core is centred on the pedestrianised High Street.
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The pedestrianised area is known as Market Place and is supplemented by the indoor Churchill Shopping Centre. A second indoor shopping area is located at the Trident Centre at the eastern end of he High Street.
9.23 Comparison goods retailers include Boots, River Island, New Look, Dorothy Perkins, WHSmith, Wilkinson’s and Clinton Cards. The centre lacks the range and quality of comparison shopping provision which we would associate with a strategic centre. Foodstores include Kwik Save, Farmfoods and Netto. Other uses in the centre include a police station, fire station, doctor’s surgery, cadet centre, town hall and library. The range of facilities reflect the traditional role of the centre as the cultural and administrative centre of the Borough, and one of the four key Black Country Town Centres.
9.24 Vacancy rates within the centre stood at 18.32% of total units within the centre at June 2003, when compared to the national average of 10.32%. According to Focus, demand from operators for floorspace within Dudley stood at 35 in September 2004. These include TJ Hughes, Peacocks, Phones 4U and Millets although demand from higher order mainstream comparison retailers is limited reflecting the influence of Merry Hill. A number of multiple hot food takeaway operators are also seeking floorspace within Dudley.
9.25 There are two developments in the pipeline which are currently under consideration by the Local Planning Authority. The first is at Flood Street/King Street which is for a comprehensive mixed use development for convenience, comparison and leisure floorspace of 19,650 sq m gross. The second relates to the erection of a garden centre and associated ‘tourist-related’ comparison floorspace on an edge/out of centre location. The retail element of this scheme includes a 7,430 sq m garden centre and a maximum of 4,180 sq m ‘heritage units’. These developments are likely to reinforce the convenience and comparison offer and reinforce the leisure focus of the town centre, but will not elevate Dudley’s retail offer to that of a strategic centre.
9.26 Dudley’s comparison goods turnover was circa £136m at 2004, based on the household telephone survey. This gives Dudley the fourth largest turnover in the Black Country, behind Walsall, Wolverhampton and Merry Hill and ahead of West Bromwich. However, this largely reflects its historic position as a dominant retail centre. Looking ahead, Dudley will struggle to perform a strategic comparison retail function given its proximity to Merry Hill although it will clearly remain an important town centre with a diverse and expanding convenience, services, leisure and office centre.
9.27 The prospect of Dudley Town Centre regaining a strategic role, either as a key retail, leisure or office location, appears remote given its proximity to Brierley Hill, which has clearly supplemented its position in each sector. Even if it were possible to reverse the trend of the last 20 years, this would require a concerted strategy to accommodate a significant scale of ‘mainstream’ comparison retail and associated development into the town centre. The Council’s strategy and
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aspirations for the centre are of a different scale. However, we consider the respective roles of Dudley and Brierley Hill in more detail later in this report.
BRIERLEY HILL/MERRY HILL
9.28 The traditional centre of Brierley Hill is linear in form, the main retailing area, based on a traditional High Street and within the Moor Centre shopping precinct, comprises 30,900 sq m gross floorspace. The majority of national multiples are located in the Moor Centre and these include Peacocks, Boots Ethel Austin and Superdrug in the comparison goods sector. The main convenience provision in the centre is provided by an Asda foodstore located to the rear of the High Street, along with a Kwik Save store on the High Street and Iceland in the Moor Centre. The retail offer is supplemented by a number of local independent traders. Other uses in the centre include community hall, emergency services, health centre, leisure centre, bingo, bowling, nightclub and religious buildings.
9.29 Vacancy rates in the centre stood at 11.9% in November 2002. This is slightly above the national average. Focus reported no demand from retailers seeking floorspace in the centre at September 2004. The household telephone survey did not attribute any market shares to Brierley Hill on comparison goods at 2004. This may be explained by the fact that the majority of respondents questioned are likely to have grouped Brierley Hill with Merry Hill shopping centre, which clearly serves a strategic retail function serving an extensive catchment area show on Plan 19.
9.30 The UDP (2002) and draft SPG for Brierley Hill (2003) are based upon the Vision for the evolution of Brierley Hill as a new town centre first set out in the Brierley Hill Area Development Framework (ADF) published in July 1998 but which has not been adopted. The key components of the vision include:
Acknowledging the role of Merry Hill as a key retail destination within the Borough, and as a fundamental economic force for wider investment within Brierley Hill.
Recognising the special role of Brierley Hill High Street as a secondary trading location within the overall area serving a more localised catchment area and functions.
Building upon the momentum created by the high- quality development achieved within the waterfront around the canal basin by extending high density, high quality, mixed use development along the Dudley Canal Corridor.
Maintaining and enhance other essential town centre functions.
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9.31 The theme of Brierley Hill as a major focus for economic and community regeneration has become a central part of Looking Forward: The Black Country in 2033 and the Brierley Hill Regeneration Partnerships vision for Brierley Hill. This concentrates on developing employment, training and health and housing initiatives to complement the proposed physical development of the area. The main components of the ‘new’ Brierley Hill would include:
1100 new homes
43,500 sq m (gross) of comparison floorspace
50,000 sq m of new commercial office floorspace
20,000 sq m of new mixed leisure floorspace
An expanded range of civic, community and heath facilities
The full and effective integration of the areas three functional components.
Improved public and private transport access including the development and opening of Midland Metro Line 3.
The introduction of car park charging at Merry Hill as part of a balanced package of transport proposals.
9.32 The current and medium term development initiatives include the following:
Circa 400 residential units at Dudley Canal/BHS car park/Pedmore Road (under construction);
12,000 sq m of office floorspace – Dudley Canal (under construction);
3,500 sq m comparison retail consents;
Circa 18,000 sq m of mixed leisure uses – Dudley Canal;
Brierley Hill NHS LIFT scheme. 9,000 sq m of new health and community facilities – former Brier School;
David Lock Associates and DTZ Pieda are working on preparing a detailed Implementation and Investment Masterplan for Brierley Hill High Street in the absence of any up to date Development Plan policies for the centre.
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Midland Metro – TWA Inquiry now closed and decision awaited. Construction projected to start 2006, scheme completed 2007/8.
Brierley Hill Integrated Transport Scheme – Funding secured for relief route to Brierley Hill High Street in 2003/4 Transport Capital Settlement. Detailed scheme design underway.
9.33 On this basis, while the traditional centre of Brierley Hill itself is clearly not strategic, the wider area is already a strategic retail, leisure and office location within the Black Country. The area does not have the characteristics of a traditional town centre, and its current accessibility by non car modes is limited. However it has the potential to accommodate further retail, leisure and office development and a range of other town centre functions.
9.34 The current proposals/aspirations would make a significant contribution to meeting the need for new retail/leisure and office floorspace in the Black Country in the period up to 2031. Without this development the shortfall between commitments/proposals and forecast needs identified in the last section will be even greater. On this basis, we consider Brierley Hill has an important role to play in meeting strategic shopping, leisure and employment needs. However, its growth has to be planned as part of an overall strategy which safeguards the future of the established Black Country Centres. This is considered in Section 11.
HALESOWEN
9.35 Halesowen is defined as a Town Centre within the Revised Deposit Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, February 2002. Halesowen is centred on the pedestrianised Hagley Street and retail activity focuses on this central strip and extends into the refurbished Cornbrow Centre.
9.36 The town centre has a floorspace of 23,400 sq m gross. Comparison retailers within the centre include New Look, Dorothy Perkins, Woolworths and WHSmith. Foodstore retailers within the centre include a Kwik Save and Safeway store. Other uses in the centre include a leisure centre, health centre, council offices, Government buildings and religious buildings.
9.37 Vacancy rates within the centre stood at 6.13% as a percentage of total units at March 2003. There is demand from Aldi, Card Warehouse, Card Factory, Cardfair, Superdrug and Pets at Home are all seeking floorspace in the centre. Pizza Hut, KFC and Domino’s Pizza are also seeking floorspace along with David Lloyd Leisure, which are all consistent with its current function as a mainly convenience/services based centre.
9.38 Based on the household survey, the comparison goods turnover of Halesowen is significantly below the turnover of the larger centres and reflects its more limited range of comparison shopping. There are no major retail development opportunities identified in the UDP. The draft UDP allocates 4,500 sq m gross comparison retail space to the town centre. However, we do not
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consider the centre has the potential to function at a strategic level within the network, or make any significant contribution to meeting strategic retail, leisure or office requirements.
STOURBRIDGE
9.39 Stourbridge is defined as a Town Centre within the Revised Deposit Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council UDP, February 2002. The main retail provision is provided along the High Street and within the two purpose built shopping centres known as the Ryemarket and The Crown Centre.
9.40 With a floorspace of 57,660 sq m gross, Stourbridge has a good range of comparison retailers including Woolworths, B&Q, Wilkinsons and WHSmith. Foodstore retailers within the centre include Safeway, Waitrose, Kwik Save and Iceland. Leisure uses in the centre include a nightclub, bowling alley and leisure centre. Other uses include library, social club, council offices, community hall, education and Government buildings.
9.41 Vacant units within the centre stood at 12.5% as a percentage of total units in January 2002. Retailers seeking floorspace in Stourbridge include Aldi, Argos, Card Factory, Peacocks and Pets at Home. There is also demand from a number of restaurant, café and hot food takeaway operators i.e. all local convenience and everyday comparison retail/service uses consistent with the centre’s current function.
9.42 The Revised Deposit UDP identifies a number of sites for development for up to 4,500 sq m gross of comparison retail floorspace. A site known as Angel Passage is identified for the development of a foodstore and/or bulky goods store over 2,500 sq m. An edge-of-centre site at Birmingham Street is also identified for a bulky goods unit of 2,500 sq m. A number of other sites are identified for retail development as part of mixed use schemes but these are for small units under 2,500 sq m.
9.43 Expenditure on comparison goods in Stourbridge was circa £51m at 2004, based on the household telephone survey. Stourbridge has the same turnover as the centre of Halesowen although the centre has a wider range of comparison retailing reflecting its traditional function as an important town centre. However, the retail function of the centre declined following the opening of Merry Hill and based on its current role and potential, we do not consider the centre is likely to be able to develop a strategic function over the study period.
WEST BROMWICH
9.44 West Bromwich is defined as the Main Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The retail core is centred on High Street and is centred on High Street. The pedestrianised area in the in the centre is referred to as the Sandwell Shopping Centre and is
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divided into Princess Parade and Duchess Parade. The centre contains 2 indoor shopping centres, Queens Square and King Square.
9.45 West Bromwich has a floorspace of 62,800 sq m gross. The centre is dominated by comparison retailing, representing about half of all floorspace within the centre. The majority of multiple comparison retailers are located in the Queens Square Shopping Centre. The comparison sector includes Littlewoods, WHSmith, Argos, Boots, River Island, Halfords, Woolworths, Wilkinsons, Dorothy Perkins, H Samuel and New Look. This is complemented by a number of independent retailers and a number of specialist retailers who are located within the Kings Square Shopping Centre.
9.46 Convenience provision is half the national average in terms of the number units, reflecting the centre’s comparison role within the hierarchy. Foodstore retailers within the centre include Safeway, Tesco, Kwik Save and Iceland. Other uses in the centre include community facilities, leisure facilities, including a nightclub, a hotel, and an indoor market.
9.47 The number of vacant units within the centre is slightly above the national average at 13.03% but vacant floorspace is slightly below the national average. Focus reveals 25 outstanding requirements from operators for floorspace, including TK Maxx, Greenwoods, Carphone Warehouse, Superdrug and Peacocks. There are a number of requirements from public houses and fast food outlets. Tesco is known to have a requirement for a larger food superstore in the centre (see below).
9.48 The adopted Sandwell UDP makes a number of major allocations within West Bromwich to strengthen the centre. The largest allocation relates to land adjacent to the Ringway and Expressway which comprises of 14.3ha and is allocated primarily for retail. The development of this site for major retail uses would significantly enhance the retail offer within the centre and the adopted UDP indicates the need for the development of a hypermarket. There are also a number of other proposals in the town centre for cultural uses including the possible development of a museum, heritage centre exhibition halls, cinema, music/concert hall, educational uses and other leisure uses. There are also proposals for refurbishment of Queens Square Shopping Centre, a new bus station and Public Square.
9.49 Over £350m of expenditure is committed to West Bromwich town centre. We have identified the following short to medium term investment and development initiatives:
The development of over 30 acres for retail by Tesco. Proposals for the site, next to the Queens Square Shopping Centre, include around 18,580 sq m of retail, built alongside a 12,820 sq m Tesco Extra, a nine screen multiplex cinema, a health and fitness centre 1,858 sq m of A3 cafes and bars, and a 2,000 space car park. The Tesco development is proposed to open by 2006/7.
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Outline permission was granted in May 2003 for the remodelling of The Queens Square shopping centre adjacent to the Tesco site. The plans for the refurbishment include larger floorplates/units, with some different tenants.
Astle Park, a recently completed retail development of over 9,290 sq m, was partially open for Christmas 2003 including Mecca Bingo and a Next clearance store, although some units remain vacant.
The new and award winning bus station was opened in 2002 and public transport usage in West Bromwich is rising.
The Learning and Cultural Quarter is based on the flagship projects of the pUBLIC, the new £40m College Campus, and the Sandwell Academy to be built on the site of the former Thomas Telford School adjacent to West Bromwich Albion’s football stadium. The pUBLIC will include space for performances and the Square itself.
9.50 Expenditure on comparison goods within the centre stood at circa £141m at 2004, based on the household telephone survey. The centre’s catchment area is illustrated on Plan 20. West Bromwich has a very similar turnover to the centre of Dudley, but having regard to its historic function, the scale of additional retail, leisure and cultural facilities planned, and the potential to reinforce its role within its traditional catchment area, we consider west Bromwich has significant potential to perform a more strategic function as a retail, leisure, cultural and employment centre.
BLACKHEATH
9.51 Blackheath is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The centre is focussed on Market Place and extends along radial routes from this point along High Street, Long Lane, Oldbury Road and Halesowen Street.
9.52 Blackheath provides for the everyday shopping needs of the local and wider community. The centre has a floorspace of 26,820 sq m gross, and is mainly focused towards providing convenience goods to meet the day-to-day needs of the local community. Comparison retailers in the centre include Woolworths, Ethel Austin, Lloyds Chemists and Boots. Foodstores within the centre include Sainsbury’s and Kwik Save and these are complemented by independent retailers and the Blackheath Market. Other uses in the centre include professional services, pubs and restaurant uses.
9.53 Vacant units within the centre stood at 3.3% in January 2000. There is little demand from retailers seeking floorspace within the centre, Iceland has a floorspace requirement within the centre for 500 – 1000 sq m, reflecting its current role as a convenience and service based centre.
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9.54 There are a number of allocations made within the adopted Sandwell UDP for residential, office, retail, leisure and community development. However none of the sites are large (all measure below 1.0ha) and we are not aware of any significant development proposals in the pipeline for Blackheath. On this basis, we do not consider has the potential to develop a more strategic role beyond meeting the convenience/service needs of its immediate catchment.
CRADLEY HEATH
9.55 Cradley Heath is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The main retail provision within Cradley Heath is located on the High Street, St Annes Road and Cradley Road. Market Square off the High Street contains a number of retail units along with Cradley Heath Market.
9.56 Cradley Heath is essentially a convenience goods centre, with the main comparison offer provided by the nearby Merry Hill. In January 2000, Cradley Heath had below representation both in the comparison and convenience sectors in terms of number of units when compered to the national average. There are few notable multiple comparison retailers within the centre, but those present include Lloyds Chemists, Birthdays and Ethel Austin. The key convenience retailers in the centre include and Iceland and Kwik Save. Other uses in the centre include a bingo hall, school, doctor’s surgery, dentist and financial services.
9.57 Vacancy rates at January 2000, stood at 18.5% of total units which is some 8% above the national average. The current vacancy levels appear to be at the same level as recorded in 2000, which indicates the stability of the centre. According to Focus, there is no reported demand from operators for floorspace in the centre.
9.58 A large area of land covering 2.78 ha to the north of the High Street is allocated for retail uses in the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The UDP notes that the primary retail need is for a major improvement in the quality and quantity of food shopping which the Plan states is best achieved through the development of a single foodstore of 6,000 sq m gross. Beyond this opportunity, which will strengthen the town’s convenience function, there is little scope for Cradley Heath to develop as a more strategic centre.
GREAT BRIDGE
9.59 Great Bridge is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The centre is based on a traditional linear high street which is located to the west of the Walsall Canal. To the east of the Canal the traditional town centre has been extended to include three large retail units.
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9.60 The centre is mainly focused towards providing convenience and service uses to meet day-to- day needs. There are few multiples located in the centre; Boots, JJB and Poundstretcher offer the main comparison offer outside the traditional centre to the east of the canal in the large retail units. Convenience provision accounted for 18.7% of units in January 2000. The main convenience provision is provided by an Asda store of 8,138 sq m gross but there is also a Kwik Save store of 836 sq m gross in the centre. A market also adds to the retail offer of the centre. Other uses in the centre include dentists, housing office, financial services and library.
9.61 Vacancy rates within the centre stood at 18.7% in January 2000, which is above the national average of 10.32%. Focus report no demand from retailers for floorspace in the centre which substantiates the number of vacant units in the centre. While there are a number of allocations for development are made in the adopted UDP for residential, retail, industrial and leisure development, we do not consider Great Bridge has the potential to develop a more strategic role in the network of Black Country Centres.
OLDBURY
9.62 Oldbury is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The centre is focused upon Unity Place and Church Square, but with the Savacentre store located off Halesowen Road. The centre had a total of 57,719 sq m gross, although the Sainsbury’s Savancentre store accounts for a significant proportion of the floorspace within the town centre.
9.63 According to Experian Goad, at May 2003, some 32.26% of units in the centre were occupied by comparison retailers. Sainsbury’s is the only multiple represented in the centre but there a further 10 multiple retailers represented in Oldbury Retail Park including Homebase and Poundstretcher. Service uses dominate the centre, accounting for 37.10% of units compared to a national average of 30.75%. Service uses include banks, financial services, public houses, cafes and restaurants. The centre contains an outdoor market and other uses in the centre include the Council offices, doctor’s surgery, library, religious and Government buildings and emergency services.
9.64 There are a number of small sites identified in the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004, for retail development to enhance the offer of the centre (all under 1.0ha). There are also a number of residential and business allocations in the Plan. However, a major allocation of 16.14ha is made for a mixed use development of Class A1 (retail) Class D2 (leisure), A3 (food and drink) and B1 (office) to the north of the centre. The retail element includes general non-food retail (A1) maximum gross floorspace 9,300 sq m; non-food retail (A1) for bulky goods only, maximum gross floorspace 8,350 sq m; and non food retail for the sale of DIY goods, maximum floorspace 9,300 sq m; and garden centre 2,800 sq m.
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9.65 Following the recent call-in inquiry, this site has been granted planning permission for a multi- screen cinema, supporting leisure uses including health and fitness, five-a-side football pitches, an ice rink and fast food outlets. The main retail elements comprised: -
Retail unit, comprising of 12,386 sq m, gross floorspace plus ancillary garden centre comprising of 2,787m² to be restricted to DIY and Garden products, to be developed for a B&Q Warehouse.
Retail unit, comprising of 7,432 sq m gross floorspace, to be restricted to non-food open A1 use. To be developed for Big W and other A1 non-food occupiers.
Retail unit comprising of 1,858m² gross floorspace, to be restricted to the sale of sporting goods, to be occupied by JJB.
Retail units, comprising a total of 8,361 sq m gross floorspace to be subject to conditions restricted the range of goods to be sold.
9.66 Even accounting for the planned expansion of Oldbury, the centre would not in itself perform a strategic function, although the leisure elements would serve a sub-regional catchment. Taking Oldbury and West Bromwich as a whole, with the benefit of excellent motorway and strategic rail links, we consider this area has the potential to develop as a major retail, leisure and office centre as part of the network of strategic Black Country Centres, but the clear policy focus should be on West Bromwich as the strategic centre.
WEDNESBURY
9.67 Wednesbury is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The centre serves an essentially local catchment population and has experienced a period of decline over recent years, despite investment in retail sites, the market and the environment of the centre.
9.68 There are no multiple comparison retailers represented in the centre, and despite the number of convenience retailers in the centre, the offer is generally poor. The main food retailers are Kwik Save (676 sq m), the Co-op (1,470 sq m) and an Iceland frozen foodstore. This is supplemented by independent convenience retailers.
9.69 Service provision accounts for 24.7% of units in January 2000, which is below the national average of 30.75%. Other uses in the centre include nightclub, doctor’s surgery, community hall, bingo hall, social club, health centre and Government buildings.
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9.70 Vacancy rates in the centre at January 2000, stood at 16.8%, which is above the national average of 10.32%.
9.71 Consistent with the demand from food retailers and the under provision in the town centre, the adopted UDP allocates a site of 2.9ha at Union Centre/Wednesbury Market and adjacent land for the development of a foodstore. There is also a small allocation of 0.37a for civic/community and leisure uses which are both consistent with the centre’s convenience/services function.
CAPE HILL
9.72 Cape Hill is defined as Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. It is one of the largest centres in the administrative area of Sandwell but is mainly focused towards convenience retailing at the discount end of the market. The core shopping area is concentrated around Cape Hill and High Street. Cape Hill contains two purpose built shopping centres. In recent years the shopping function of the centre has declined due to changing retail patterns and a decline in the population but the centre has now stabilised.
9.73 Cape Hill has a floorspace of 35,800 sq m gross, within a wide range of comparison retailers but a distinct lack of key retailers. The convenience offer within the centre is focused towards the discount end of the market. The Cape Hill retail centre contains an Aldi foodstore, Iceland and Farmfoods. Netto is located to the rear of the High Street in Windmill Retail Park. Service uses in the centre stood at 20.9% of total units in January 2000, which is below the national average of 30.75%. Other uses in the centre include bingo hall, religious buildings, financial services and dentists.
9.74 The adopted UDP identifies a mixed use area of 4.48ha for the development of retail and leisure uses at Windmill Retail Park. The UDP states that the site has the potential to support a large foodstore which is currently not provided in the town and other uses such as pub/diner, fast food outlet and bowling alley. This allocation is consistent with the everyday retail/services function of Cape Hill. However, the centre does not have the potential to perform at a more strategic level in the wider network.
BEARWOOD
9.75 Bearwood is defined as a Town Centre within the adopted Sandwell UDP, April 2004. The core of the centre is located south of the Sandon Road/Three Shires Oak road crossroads. The centre is focused towards meeting convenience goods needs and as a service centre.
9.76 The gross retail floorspace in the centre is 34,200 sq m gross. Comparison multiples include Fads and Lloyds the chemist. The main convenience provision is provided by a Safeway foodstore of 1,672 sq m gross, supplemented by an Iceland and Kwik Save store. Service uses
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in the centre stood at 33.1% which is above the national average and includes a number of banks and building societies. Other uses in the centre include bingo hall, dentists, doctor’s surgery, leisure centre and social club.
9.77 Vacancy rates in Bearwood stood at 12.5% of total units in January 2000. According to Focus, there were seven operators seeking floorspace in Bearwood in September 2004, including Ethel Austin, Pets at Home and JD Wetherspoon. The adopted Sandwell UDP makes no allocations for retail or leisure development in Bearwood and we are not aware of any developments in the pipeline which would alter the current role of the centre.
WALSALL
9.78 Walsall is defined as a Main Town Centre within the Revised Deposit UDP, March 2002. The centre is the largest within the administrative area of Walsall and performs a sub-regional role. The centre has a floorspace of 107,350 sq m gross according to Experian Goad, November 2003, within a good range of multiple retailers. Walsall has three managed shopping centres, all of which opened before 1980. There has been further investment in the centre since then, notably Town Wharf and Crown Wharf although this has not been of sufficient scale and quality to stem and reverse its decline in the national and regional rankings since then.
9.79 A large proportion of the town centre’s floorspace is dedicated to comparison goods, which totalled 48.89% of units, slightly above the national average. The centre contains two department stores - Debenhams and Littlewoods. Other comparison retailers include Marks and Spencer, BHS, Virgin, New Look, WHSmith, Boots and Topman. The retail offer is fairly mainstream, and up-market and speciality retailing is limited. Walsall has a relatively weak retail provision relative to the size of the shopping population, reflecting in part, the strength of the competition.
9.80 Foodstore retailers in the centre include; Tesco, Safeway, Iceland and Aldi. The convenience offer is supplemented by a number of convenience retailers including Greggs and Holland & Barrett. Service uses are below the national average representing 23.16% of units but these include a range of banks, cafes and restaurants. Consistent with the centre’s sub-regional role, Walsall contains a number of civic uses, including art gallery, civic hall, hospital, college, and hotel.
9.81 Vacancy rates in the centre stood at 15.69% of total units in November 2003. This is above the national average of 10.32%. According to Focus, the demand from operators seeking floorspace in the centre stood at 50 requirements in October 2004, although some are out of centre operators. These are generally at the lower/mid market level, reflecting retailers current perceptions of the centre.
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9.82 The Revised Deposit UDP identifies a number of sites for development in the town centre. Lower Hall Lane/Digbeth/Old Square is identified as the focus for major comparison goods retailing within the next 5-10 years. A number of other sites in the town centre are identified for major leisure and cultural development along with physical improvements to improve the environment.
9.83 In addition to the recently completed art gallery and Crown Wharf retail park, key investment projects in Walsall include the following:
Shannon’s Mill – outline planning permission has been given for 250,000 sq ft of retail floorspace, of which reserved matters consent has been given for 140,000 sq ft. The development will be in the form of a factory outlet centre and normal High Street unit shopping, and will provide a replacement store for J Sainsbury. St. Modwen is the lead developer.
Walsall Waterfront – where Urban Splash has been selected as the Council’s preferred development partner for a mixed use scheme involving commercial leisure and housing either side of the canal to the west of the New Art Gallery.
A proposal for a redevelopment and expansion of the recently vacated J Sainsbury store for re-occupation by foodstore operator, on a site next to Shannon’s Mill.
A proposal by Tesco for a new store and redevelopment of Digbeth Square where its existing store is located. A scheme to the north of Littleton Street was dismissed following a public inquiry, but Tesco is known to be investigating an alternative site.
Ongoing housing development to the east of Hatherton Street and to the south of Littleton Street.
9.84 The formation of the Walsall Urban Regeneration Company (URC) was announced in December 2003. Circa £600m will go into the area over the next 10-15 years. Roger Tym & Partners have recently been commissioned to undertake the Regeneration Framework for the URC. All initiatives under the URC will be undertaken during this 10-15 year period.
9.85 Based on household survey, the comparison goods turnover of Walsall was circa £349m at 2004, and the centre serves an extensive catchment, shown on Plan 21. This demonstrates the importance of the centre to the sub-regions economy, and the significant contribution Walsall can make to accommodating strategic retail, leisure, office and other key town centre uses over the study period.
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ALDRIDGE
9.86 Aldridge is defined as a District Centre in the Revised Deposit Walsall UDP, March 2002. The centre is mainly focused on meeting day-to-day convenience shopping needs. The centre comprises approximately 16,400 sq m gross of occupied retail floorspace, of which 9,600 sq m is in the convenience sector. Aldridge serves a relatively affluent local catchment and contains a reasonable range of comparison multiples including WHSmith, Ethel Austin and Boots, all of which are accommodated within a single purpose built retail centre.
9.87 The district centre contains supermarkets operated by Safeway, Kwik Save and Iceland. There is also a range of independent comparison and convenience retailers and service activities. Other uses include bingo, emergency services, Government buildings and social club.
9.88 Vacancy rates in the centre appear to be low. According to focus, there were five operators seeking floorspace in Aldridge at September 2004, including Peacocks, Greggs and Pets at Home. The Revised Deposit UDP identifies two opportunities for retail development in the centre. These include refurbishment or redevelopment of the precinct for shopping uses, as well as potentially housing and leisure uses and the development of land at the High Street/Little Aston Road to provide retail units with office or residential space above. We are not aware of any major developments in the pipeline.
BLOXWICH
9.89 Bloxwich is defined as a District Centre within the Revised Deposit Walsall UDP, March 2002. The centre comprises approximately 19,200 sq m gross of occupied retail floorspace, biased towards convenience retailing. The main operators are an edge of centre Asda superstore and a town centre Kwik Save, together with a good range of independent convenience retailers. Comparison multiple retailing is limited to Woolworths and QS clothing.
9.90 Although there has been a decline in the range and quality of retailing in recent years, the proposed redevelopment of the Market Centre and the expansion of Asda will help to underpin the centre and may also assist in improving the somewhat poor existing links between the Asda store and the rest of the centre. Other uses in the centre include emergency services, religious buildings, dentists, school and social club.
9.91 The number of vacancies in the centre has declined since 1994 and the development commitments will secure a further boost to the district centre’s overall vitality and viability. Focus indicates seven operators seeking floorspace in the centre at September 2004. The Revised Deposit UDP, identifies a number of sites in Bloxwich for redevelopment, including redevelopment of the Market Centre and the redevelopment of the existing Asda to the south east of the High Street on the site of the current bowling green.
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BROWNHILLS
9.92 Brownhills is defined as a District Centre within the Revised Deposit Walsall UDP, March 2002. Brownhills is now relegated to a largely convenience and service function and there appears to be little retailer or investor interest in the centre at present.
9.93 Brownhills is anchored by two food supermarkets – Tesco and Aldi - and there is a large open air market. Overall the centre has suffered a serious and prolonged decline in the quality of its retail offer and has lost a number of comparison multiples in the last 10 years; where re-lettings have occurred, these have tended to be of lower quality independent traders. Other uses in the centre include council offices, doctor's surgery, dentists and financial services.
9.94 Vacancy levels have increased significantly and now exceed 20 per cent of retail and service units. Focus identifies seven requirements from operators seeking floorspace in Brownhills. A small number of sites are identified in the Revised Deposit UDP for retail and leisure development. These allocations are intended to strengthen the role of the centre and maintain its position in the hierarchy.
WILLENHALL
9.95 Willenhall is defined as a District Centre in the Revised Deposit Walsall UDP, March 2002. Willenhall has avoided the extensive redevelopment that has affected many other settlements in the conurbation and is widely regarded as one of the most intact and unaltered small town centres in the Black Country. Much of the Town Centre is a designated conservation area and the Town Centre and surrounding area is also of potential archaeological significance.
9.96 The role of the District Centre is changing, due to a combination of factors: the decline of traditional industry; increased competition from other centres and changing lifestyles. The centre offers a limited range of non-food shopping and service activities. The convenience shopping function is underpinned by Somerfield, which is an important generator of linked trips. There is also a representation of many independent convenience businesses, including a small supermarket in Market Place, and a range of butchers, bakers, greengrocers, newsagents, off- licences, and florists. The market is also very important to Willenhall’s vitality.
9.97 In total there are some ten multiple traders, the most important of which is Boots the Chemist. Most of the multiples are service providers, reflecting the status of Willenhall as a convenience and service based district centre.
9.98 There are no proposals for major retail/leisure based development in the centre and the current constraints suggest it is unlikely to perform any enhanced or more strategic functions beyond its current, limited role.
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DARLASTON
9.99 Darlaston is defined as a District Centre within the Revised Deposit Walsall UDP, March 2002. The centre suffered badly from the closure of the town centre Asda supermarket in 1997 but the store reopened in late 2002. Asda store dominates convenience spending in the centre, supplemented by a small number of independent convenience retailers. Comparison provision in the centre is weak, with only Boots and Ethel Austin of note, although there is a range of banks, building societies and other financial services. The centre also contains a number of religious buildings, leisure centre, advice centre, library and council offices.
9.100 Vacancy rates in the centre appear to have stabilised since the reopening of Asda, although they remain high in the secondary areas of the town. Focus identifies only one requirement from operators at September 2004. Farmfoods is seeking a floorspace of between 5,000-7,000 sq ft.
SUMMARY
9.101 Table 9.2 summarises the key characteristics of the traditional Black Country Centres examined in this section. It includes Brierley Hill, but not the combined Brierley Hill/Merry Hill area, which in terms of its shopping, leisure and office provision clearly serves a ‘strategic’ function.
Table 9.2: Strategic and Other Defined Town Centres Retail Defined Department Main Leisure Development Centre Floorspace Strategic Stores Foodstores Facilities Proposals sq m gross Centre Wolverhampton 140,279 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Bilston 32,595 No Yes Yes No No Wednesfield 6,140 No No No No No Brierley Hill 30,900 No Yes Yes Yes No Dudley 65,030 Yes No Yes Yes Yes Halesowen 23,400 No Yes Yes Yes No Stourbridge 57,660 No Yes Yes Yes No West Bromwich 63,172 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Blackheath 26,820 No Yes Yes No No Cradley Heath N/A No Yes Yes No No Great Bridge N/A No Yes No Yes No Oldbury 57,719 No Yes No Yes No Wednesbury 22,699 No Yes Yes Yes No Cape Hill 35,800 No Yes Yes Yes No Bearwood 34,200 No Yes Yes No No Walsall 104,977 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Aldridge 16,400 No Yes No Yes No Bloxwich 19,200 No Yes Yes Yes No Brownhills 21,500 No Yes No Yes No Darlaston 5,100 No Yes Yes Yes No Willenhall 15,900 Yes Yes No
Notes: (i) Main foodstores are Sainsburys, Safeway, Morrisons, Asda and Tescos- Edge of centre foodstores included. (ii) Leisure uses as defined under Class D2 of the Use Classes Order. (iii) Figures for Walsall’s smaller town and District Centres reflect occupied retail floorspace as no other information is available. All other figures show occupied floorspace.
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9.102 Based on our detailed audit of all the defined Black Country Town Centres, it is evident that for the most part the traditional town and district centres are still adapting and responding to wider retail trends and the legacy of the Black Country’s industrial past. While a number of centres appear likely to continue to experience decline, for the most part these centres have begun to adapt to a new largely convenience and local services based function, generally anchored by one or more foodstores with a range of key service and community uses. Their comparison retail function is generally limited to a ‘value based’ offer targeted at their local catchment.
9.103 With the scale of expenditure growth forecast within the sub-region, and the increase in population and per capita expenditure likely to arise as a consequence of the RPG strategy, we expect further opportunities will emerge to reinforce the role of the existing network of centres, and in particular to improve the quality of the retail offer, increase demand for local services, and a significantly enhanced leisure and eating and drinking offer.
9.104 However, of the centres examined, we consider only five could currently be described as performing a strategic function. Wolverhampton remains the dominant city centre, with significant scope for further expansion and a potential to accommodate forecast capacity for higher order comparison retail, leisure and office uses and other key town centre cultural functions. Equally, Walsall has the potential to maintain and enhance its position and develop its role further as a strategic town centre.
9.105 In the case of Dudley, as a consequence of its size and traditional function, at the current time it could still be regarded as having a residual strategic role in some respects, and has scope for further significant convenience based retail and leisure development. However, its ability to regain its former role as the strategic ‘higher order’ comparison retail, office or leisure destination for the Borough has been overshadowed by the Brierley Hill area. This issue is considered in more detail in Section 11.
9.106 There has been significant debate concerning the role and status of Brierley Hill. Based on the key town centre uses (retail/offices/leisure), it already functions as a ‘strategic’ centre. This is evident from our in centre and household surveys, and the scale of existing provision in the centre. Equally our review has identified the centre’s ability to contribute to meeting the region’s strategic retail/office and leisure needs. Without the scale of new development planned at Brierley Hill, there will be a significant shortfall against forecast needs which will not be matched by opportunities in any other Black Country Centre.
9.107 However, the further expansion of Brierley Hill needs to be considered as part of a clearly articulated strategy, which defines complementary roles for the centre and traditional town centres (including Dudley), matches the phasing of new development with identified capacity and economic growth, and secures necessary improvements to the accessibility of the centre to
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enable it to genuinely function as a strategic town centre. These issues are examined in more detail later in this report.
9.108 Based on its current function, West Bromwich occupies a similar role to Dudley and as such, would not warrant designation as a strategic centre in retail, leisure, employment or cultural terms. However, in contrast to Dudley, the scale of new cultural, retail and leisure development currently underway, the physical capacity for growth, and further improvements planned in the centre offer the potential to begin the process of re-establishing West Bromwich to its former status within the Black Country network of centres, particularly having regard to the potential of the West Bromwich area as a potential growth node centred around the motorway and strategic rail network.
9.109 We examine the strategic options for the development of retail, commercial leisure, office and other key town centre functions within the defined and emerging strategic centres, and the policy implications of each, in the following section.
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10. POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE STRATEGIC CENTRES
10.1 In this section, we draw together the conclusions of our analysis and test alternative options for the development of a polycentric network of strategic centres.
KEY COMPONENTS OF THE CORE CENTRES STRATEGY
10.2 Our analysis shows an ongoing pattern of polarisation of activity towards the two dominant Black Country Centres and Birmingham City Centre. Our analysis of the regional context suggests that without significant investment in the strategic Black Country Centres, over and above current commitments and aspirations, the sub-region as a whole will lose market share. As retail development provides the catalyst for large scale investment in any strategic town/city centre, it is wholly unrealistic to plan for a renaissance of the Black Country Centres without addressing the sub-regions strategic retail needs.
10.3 The region as a whole depends on a strong, successful and improving regional centre, i.e. Birmingham. However, the overriding strategy for the Black Country Centres should be to collectively retain and enhance their share of current economic activity, and harness the benefits of population and economic growth within the sub-region to underpin the Black Country network of centres. It is unsustainable to plan for significant growth in line with the RPG strategy without making provision for an effective network of strategic centres to serve the aspirations of the changing catchment.
10.4 Our global capacity projections up to 2021 and 2031 demonstrate the scale of growth which is expected to take place in the retail and leisure sector, even without additional population and economic growth which underpins the RPG strategy. The GHK Analysis highlights a requirement for up to 900,000 sq m of central area offices to underpin the creation of a new economy. The implications of the housing strategy, and scale of new residential development to be accommodated in the strategic centres has still to be determined.
10.5 A further consequence of the housing scenarios will be increased demand for Higher and Further Education and healthcare facilities. The capacity/requirements for these uses falls outside the scope of this study, but GHK has produced tentative estimates indicating a strategic requirement for a further 329 hospital beds and significant additional primary and secondary schools which will in turn fuel pressure for increased capacity within Higher and Further Education establishments.
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10.6 Population and economic growth will also fuel further demand for mainstream commercial leisure, including significant growth in the gaming industry and health and fitness sector, and significant expansion in the demand for hotels and entertainment facilities throughout the Black Country. In parallel, the pUBLIC and Walsall Art Gallery highlight the role of key cultural facilities, and the need for additional cultural facilities, and quality open spaces needs to be accommodated in the centres strategy.
10.7 This scale of growth poses significant challenges and highlights the need at the regional level to establish clear priorities for the strategic network of centres. It is self evident that the current commitments and aspirations for retail, leisure, residential and commercial development within the identified strategic centres fall well short of medium term needs, even excluding the additional demands created by housing and economic growth in the sub-region. On this basis, two key conclusions emerge from our analysis:
First, in line with national planning policy for town centres, it will be necessary to plan for significant expansion of the central areas of all the identified strategic centres. In the case of Wolverhampton, initiatives are already underway to expand the centre beyond the Ring Road. The strategy for Brierley Hill envisages a new strategic centre embracing an extensive area comprising Merry Hill, Waterfront and Brierley Hill High Street. In the case of West Bromwich, the opportunity exists for comprehensive redevelopment and expansion of the town centre boundary, and over time the potential for coalescence with Oldbury to form a strategic centre; in Walsall there is also potential for strategic growth of the centre, currently being examined by the Council/URC.
Second, the regional strategy needs to define clearly the key town centre functions essential to underpinning the strategic centres, and its priorities for each. In this respect we regard ‘higher order’ comparison retail, and associated leisure provision to be the fundamental drivers of activity and investment in the strategic centres and the first priority for key town and city centre sites. Such centres must also be the focus for culture, and places in which people live and work to create a vibrant daytime and evening economy. Our review identifies limited major sites/opportunities for large scale office development in the defined strategic centres. Equally, their ability to accommodate any significant share of the scale of new housing needed in the Black Country has yet to be demonstrated.
10.8 From the emerging findings of the other thematic studies, the scale of new office development and housing needed to meet strategic objectives suggests that only a small proportion of these needs can realistically be met within the core central areas of the defined strategic centres. Unlike higher order comparison retailing, which has precise locational requirements both in commercial and policy terms, and which must be the priority for prime city centre development
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sites, the bulk of strategic residential and office accommodation requirements can and should be accommodated in edge of centre or failing that, highly accessible off centre locations.
10.9 We consider the provision of significant office/residential development on prime sites within the strategic centres, to the exclusion of retail, leisure and cultural facilities represents a lost opportunity. The same applies to the provision of healthcare and further/higher education, which can both function more effectively in less constrained edge or out of centre locations. The smaller, non strategic centres may also provide opportunities for such uses.
10.10 The scale of development currently planned within the Black Country Centres falls short of medium term needs i.e. up to 2021. Without significant new development, the implication is that the Black Country Centres will decline further in relative terms, and fail to meet the additional needs and aspirations generated by the RPG growth strategy. It is also evident that in making additional provision, the opportunity exists through policy intervention to develop a more balanced network of centres over time. As retail development provides the catalyst for investment in infrastructure, commercial/residential and cultural facilities (as illustrated by the growth of Brierley Hill), it is evident that redirecting comparison retail investment will also reinforce the other key non retail functions of the Black Country Strategic Centres.
The Strategic Options
10.11 To examine this issue, we have developed four strategic options for the pattern of growth in the Black Country Strategic Centres, which have been agreed with the Steering Group. The Steering Group requested that in addition to the baseline scenario all four options should be tested based on the H1 population growth, i.e. 5 scenarios in total. These are summarised on Figure 10.1, and described in more detail in Appendix C.
Table 10.1: Strategic Options
Centres Option Population Base H1 Population Growth RPG +5% Trend 4 Centres & Corridors
Status Quo Scenario 1 Scenario 2
3 Centres (Plus Walsall) Scenario 3
4 Centres (Plus Walsall & West Bromwich) Scenario 4 Wolverhampton Focus of Growth Scenario 5
Income Scenario Current National Average
10.12 The baseline assumption (Scenario 1) is that the current distribution of activity remains unchanged, with Birmingham as the dominant regional centre and Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill as the two dominant sub-regional centres for the Black Country. Scenario 2 assumes market shares remain the same, but factors in growth.
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10.13 Scenarios 3 and 4 examine the implications of policy intervention to bring about step change in the scale and function of activity in Walsall, and in both Walsall and West Bromwich. Scenario 5 explores the implications of a strategy focused on the further growth of Wolverhampton as a single dominant sub-regional centre, in some respects returning to the traditional Black Country hierarchy of centres examined in Section 5.
10.14 All of the scenarios examined assume continued growth of Brierley Hill/Merry Hill. Based on our capacity projections and the limited range of opportunities elsewhere in the Black Country, without further development at Brierley Hill there will be a significant shortfall of realistic opportunities to meet defined needs by 2021. The consequence of this shortfall is that the Black Country is likely to continue to lose market share. However, these scenarios are not intended to prejudge the acceptability of specific proposals for retail development at Brierley Hill or any other centre.
10.15 Specifically, in the case of Brierley Hill we anticipate the acceptability of any major expansion of retail, leisure or office development will depend on the associated improvements to public transport, and a concerted strategy to reduce reliance on the car. Equally, having regard to national policy guidance, even recognising its role and status as a strategic centre, we anticipate that any major application will be subjected to further scrutiny to ensure any development planned is of an appropriate scale and its impact on the other strategic centres is acceptable.
10.16 At this stage, the main purpose of testing the four options is to examine the realism, sustainability and regeneration benefits of meeting identified needs through different strategies, for the spatial distribution of growth. We have not undertaken detailed impact testing of specific proposals, which will be required to accompany any major planning application.
Table 10.2: Strategic Retail Growth Options Option Description Modelling Assumption
Assume constant market Assume Brierley Hill/ Wolverhampton/ Scenario 1 and 2 shares. In practice Birmingham City centre continue to polarisation trend suggests dominate the retail network and act as the (PLAN 22) dominant centres market focus for other central area investment. share will grow over time.
Reinforce Walsall market Scenario 3 -"3 Centres" – Assumes a concerted strategy is put in shares within its "natural" Walsall place to elevate Walsall to a comparable catchment; by reducing status to Wolverhampton/ Brierley Hill leakage to Birmingham, (PLAN 23) underpinned by strategic retail growth. Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill.
Reinforce Walsall/ West Scenario 4 - "4 Centres" As above, but promotes strategic growth Bromwich market shares Walsall and West in West Bromwich to a comparable status within their natural Bromwich to the other strategic centres, catchments, reducing underpinned by strategic retail growth. leakage to Birmingham, (PLAN 24) Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill.
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Reinforce Wolverhampton Scenario 5 - " Promotes "above trend line" growth in market share across the Wolverhampton" Wolverhampton to recreate a dominant Black Country, mainly by sub-regional city centre for the Black reclaiming share from (PLAN 25) Country. Birmingham and Brierley Hill.
Option Testing
10.17 The way in which these scenarios have been tested is to rerun our base capacity model using the RPG population growth scenario (H1) based on constant market shares, and then based on modelling the effect of substantial new comparison based retail development in Walsall (Scenario 3) and Walsall and West Bromwich (Scenario 4) with the effect of achieving a more balanced provision of strategic comparison retail shopping facilities.
10.18 Neither scenario assumes that these centres would be capable of achieving a comparable scale and turnover to Brierley Hill/Wolverhampton, but they do assume that both centres would attract major quality comparison based retail development i.e. anchored by quality department stores, to perform a genuinely ‘strategic’ retail/leisure offer.
10.19 Scenario 5, the ‘Wolverhampton Option’ anticipates that the city centre would achieve significant expansion beyond the aspirations of the current core expansion area, to provide a dominant sub- regional centre capable of challenging the position of Birmingham City Centre.
10.20 We have examined each scenario against what we regard as the key national and regional policy objectives:
The need to plan and make adequate provision for forecast retail and leisure needs, arising out of guidance in PPG/PPS6.
The need to plan for a sustainable network of centres, reducing the need to travel (PPG6/13/RPG).
The need to secure the maximum level of investment in the Black Country Centres in the short, medium and long term (RPG/Economic Strategy).
Compatibility with the regeneration priorities set out in RPG and the regional economic framework and to focus investment where it is most needed (PPG6/RPG/Economic Strategy).
The impact of strategic growth options on identified vulnerable centres, notably West Bromwich and Dudley (RPG).
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The need to develop options which are commercially realistic and capable of implementation (PPG6/RPG/Economic Strategy).
10.21 In discussion with the Steering Group, we concluded that it would be unrealistic to apply a mechanistic approach to evaluating and scoring each option, particularly as a number of the measures are clearly subjective. Even where there are empirical means of assessing options, in practice decisions as to the preferred strategy will inevitably be political, rather than technical, and depend on short, medium and long term priorities. Notwithstanding these caveats, our evaluation of the option shown in Table 10.3 indicates some general conclusions can be drawn.
Table 10.3: Strategic Retail Growth Options: evaluation against National/ Regional Policy Objectives Options Contribution Seeing to Compatibility Impact on Commercial Ability to meet maximising sustainability/ with vulnerable realism forecast investment/ reduces need regeneration strategic Delivery and needs short term to priorities centres risk goals travel
MODERATE- Trendline POOR- POOR- Early "wins" POOR- Ongoing Continuing POOR- GOOD- in Growth of polarisation loss of trade Fail to deliver Low risk Brierley Hill/ Merry Hill leads to from West investment to option Wolverhampt Accelerates decline of Bromwich/ priority areas of requiring on/ decline of Walsall/ Walsall natural Walsall/ minimum Walsall/ West West West catchments. Sandwell. intervention. Bromwich. Bromwich. Bromwich.
3 Centres MODERATE- GOOD- MODERATE- A more GOOD/POOR- Subject to Expansion of POOR- sustainable MODERATE- Supports achieving Walsall Reinforces network. Ignores Walsall step change increases impact on Reduces Sandwell regeneration, in Walsall capacity West outflow from but ignores offer, follows of strategic Bromwich Walsall Sandwell. market centres catchment. forces.
MODERATE- GOOD- GOOD- 4 Centres GOOD- GOOD- Requires Reinstates More balanced Maximimises Reinforces ambitious natural GOOD strategy which potential West strategy for catchment Maximises distributes to Bromwich step change and reduces development investment accommodate and in West need capacity to priority strategic needs. Walsall. Bromwich to travel. areas. function.
Wolverhampton POOR- Risk of POOR- diseconomics POOR- POOR- Maximum of Perpetuates POOR- MODERATE Reinforces investment scale. Misses under Impact on Subject to need to travel potential opportunity to investment in Walsall/ capacity/dem in Walsall/ served by a maximise Walsall/ West -and West Bromwich multi centre capacity of West Bromwich issues. catchments. growth other Bromwich. strategy. strategic centres.
10.22 It is clear that maintaining the status quo performs poorly against most of the defined policy objectives. It maintains the current hierarchy, and is likely to accelerate the pattern of
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polarisation examined elsewhere in this report, resulting in the continued relative decline of Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley. The option does little to develop a more balanced network, or reduce the need for those living in the Walsall and West Bromwich catchments to travel further for their retail, leisure and other centre needs. While Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill are both priority areas for regeneration, this option does little to harness the potential for the further growth into other key priority areas, notably Walsall and Sandwell, and will precipitate the decline of West Bromwich.
10.23 The ‘Three Centres’ Option demonstrates the case for additional significant quality retail and other centre development in Walsall, in order to maintain and enhance its role as a strategic centre and achieve a more balanced network of centres. An expanded Walsall would make a greater contribution to meeting capacity arising within the sub-region, and reduce the need for those living in the Walsall catchment to travel further for their retail and other needs. Further major retail/mixed use investment in the centre would address qualitative deficiencies in its offer, and provide the catalyst for further investment in offices, city living, and leisure/cultural facilities.
10.24 The ‘Four Centres’ Option provides all the benefits outlined above, but in addition assumes further significant development takes place in the West Bromwich area, in effect re-establishing the role of West Bromwich as a strategic centre serving its own natural catchment. While clearly the most aspirational, and challenging of the options evaluated, this comes closest to providing a genuinely balanced network of strategic centres reflecting the polycentric vision encapsulated in RPG. Depending on the location of new housing and office development, this option also provides the additional capacity needed to accommodate the further retail/leisure and office requirements generated in the RPG growth scenarios.
10.25 In contrast, a strategy to further reinforce the role of Wolverhampton City Centre as the sub- regional centre for the Black Country performs poorly against national and RPG policy objectives. In addition to the physical challenges of securing the scale of additional development involved within and beyond Wolverhampton’s Ring Road, and balancing retail growth with other priorities e.g. urban living, commercial, leisure and educational, this option would increase the need to travel within the Black Country and would be likely to act counter to strategy to secure further investment in Brierley Hill, Walsall and West Bromwich.
The Preferred Option
10.26 We have discussed the pros and cons of each broad option with the Steering Group, and at the ‘Black Country III’ Conference in October 2004. This process of consultation generated a clear shared vision on the part of the Black Country Authorities and strategic stakeholders to develop a balanced ‘four centres’ strategy. This offers significant benefits.
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10.27 First, recognising the wider retail trends and pattern of polarisation of retail activity it is acknowledged that the Black Country needs clearly defined ‘strategic’ centres to provide the focus for higher order shopping, leisure, cultural and other key functions, and there is clear merit in focusing these developments into a defined network of centres. This approach in effect assumes a two tier network of strategic ‘higher order’ town centres, and other centres forming a more localised retail and services based function.
10.28 Second, the scale of additional comparison shopping needs, leisure, cultural, office and residential requirements in the Black Country over the next 30 years exceeds significantly current proposals and commitments. In order to meet identified needs, and maximise the scale of new investment in the Black Country Centres, the strategy needs to optimise the potential of all those centres identified in Section 9 as having potential to perform a strategic role.
10.29 Third, the development of four strategic centres provides the optimum distribution of centres providing strategic retail and other town centre functions within the Black Country. It provides each Borough with a clear focus, and in spatial terms minimises the need for residents of the Black Country to travel to meet their strategic higher order town centre needs, while still supporting centres of sufficient ‘critical mass’ to attract investor/developer interest.
10.30 The process of undertaking the centres study has generated a clear consensus of support for a balanced approach, focused on the development of four strategic centres, and re-balancing strategic needs to reduce the current gap between Wolverhampton/Brierley Hill on the one hand and Walsall and West Bromwich on the other. The scale and form of development appropriate in each would depend on a range of factors including; population growth; the location of new housing development; the effectiveness of the economic strategy for delivering growth in household expenditure; and transport improvements.
10.31 For this reason, we consider it is premature to develop a single clearly defined strategy based on the work undertaken to date. The results of the employment, demographic and transport thematic and capacity studies are required in order to provide a more robust assessment of the overall scale and distribution of capacity for key town centre uses. However, it is clear that even adopting the trend line scenario, the scale of new retail and leisure development currently planned within the Black Country Centres will fall short of forecast needs, and failure to plan for additional growth in comparison shopping at Brierley Hill, as current planned, will increase this shortfall.
10.32 On this basis, in strategic terms we conclude that there will be sufficient capacity in any scenario to support the identification of four strategic centres, to accommodate the scale of retail and leisure floorspace currently proposed in each, and to support a further ‘step change’ in the scale of town centre development in Walsall and West Bromwich in order to narrow the gap between these and Wolverhampton/Brierley Hill.
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10.33 We are not confident that this overall conclusion can be translated into a detailed strategy identifying the scale and form of retail, leisure, office, residential, cultural and other development supportable in each strategic centres, or the phasing and delivery of new development in advance of the conclusion of the other thematic studies, and without further reiteration of our capacity model. However, we have been requested by the Steering Group to develop the ‘four centres option’ into a recommended strategy, based on certain population and expenditure assumptions which is set out in Section 12.
SUMMARY
10.34 Whichever policy option is developed for the strategic Black Country Centres, it needs to make provision for significant expansion of the defined centres even to accommodate trend based retail/leisure needs. It also needs to balance the aspiration for significant development of offices, residential, education/health care and other potential ‘town centre uses’ on key ‘town centre’ sites if the strategic centres are to meet even the retail needs of the sub-region up to 2031 and beyond.
10.35 We have examined a series of alternative policy options for the spatial distribution of forecast shopping and other strategic requirements. On every key indicator examined, a strategy for a more balanced distribution of forecast growth between four strategic centres; Wolverhampton, Walsall, Brierley Hill and West Bromwich, provides the best fit against national, regional and local policy objectives, and is supported by the four Boroughs and key stakeholders.
10.36 This option is achievable, having regard to market and capacity considerations; it maximises the potential to accommodate strategic shopping and other functions within the Black Country; and provides the most sustainable network of ‘higher order’ centres to supplement the more localised role of the other town and district centres in the sub-region. However, the scale of new development supportable in each centre, and phasing of delivery, depends on population and economic growth assumptions.
10.37 We are confident, even in the trend based scenario, that a ‘four centres’ option is realistic, and there will be sufficient capacity in the retail and commercial leisure sector to underpin expansion and, where required, step change in the function of these centres. The emerging conclusions of the Employment and Housing Capacity Studies show that the strategic centres will make some contribution to housing/employment needs, the full extent of which needs to be explored through detailed masterplans. However, it is evident that to meet the growth aspirations of the Black Country Vision a significant proportion of housing and employment needs will have to be met outside the strategic centres.
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11. THE BRIERLEY HILL/DUDLEY ISSUE
THE POLICY POSITION
11.1 RPG11 recognises Merry Hill as a regional shopping destination, which may have the potential to assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country, but notes that this regeneration role must be balanced with the regeneration needs of other strategic and vulnerable centres. RPG11 states that the RPB should reach a strategic view on the following:
Regeneration priorities within the region/Black Country sub-region;
The balance between centres, in particular which centres in the region/sub-region should be the focus for major growth to assist their regeneration; and then
The role of Merry Hill and, if appropriate, the timing of any future large-scale development there.
11.2 PPS6 identifies the role of Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS) to develop a strategic framework for the development of a network of centres and to make strategic choices about centres of regional and sub-regional importance, including, where appropriate, the need for new centres in areas of planned major growth. The statement suggests that it is unlikely that the expansion of an existing out of centre regional or sub-regional shopping centre will meet the Government’s policy, but were a need to be identified it should be addressed through the RSS. This study has addressed this issue in detail.
11.3 It is evident that the Black Country Vision incorporated into the RSS review aims to achieve significant growth. This is reflected in the population and expenditure growth assumptions which underpin our capacity projections. The H1 growth indicates the population of the study area will grow from 1.89m in 2004 to 2.1m by 2031 (Spreadsheets 3 to 6 of Appendix C). Comparison retail expenditure in the study area is forecast to grow from £4,384m in 2004 to £15,069m by 2031. This level of growth generates capacity for circa 390,000 sq m (circa 580,000 sq m gross) by 2031. Current commitments/major policy proposals in the Black Country (including Brierley Hill) collectively account for only about 234,000 sq m gross. Therefore there is significant current capacity and a need to plan for major growth.
11.4 Unless the Black Country Centres are able to at least retain their market share (which has declined overall over the last 30 years) and accommodate the forecast needs for comparison retail and other main town centre uses, the Black Country Vision for sustainable economic growth will be undermined. Our review of retail trends, commercial demand and alternative options for
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meeting strategic town centre needs indicates that a ‘Four Centres’ strategy offers the most sustainable network of strategic centres, and maximises the Black Country potential to accommodate investment in ‘higher order’ facilities.
11.5 In addition to meeting strategic or ‘higher order’ needs for main town centre uses in a sustainable network of strategic town centres where there is the physical and economic capacity to support major new investment, the strategy also needs to have regard to current regeneration needs. The South Black Country and West Birmingham (SBCWB) ‘Arc of Opportunity’ RZ is the largest of the six West Midlands Zones, with a population of nearly half a million people. The Zone faces the largest challenge in terms of socio-economic conditions but is also characterised by a string of development opportunities stretching in an arc from Birmingham to Dudley, and including Brierley Hill.
11.6 Key development projects within the SBCWB Zone to achieve these strategic priorities include; improvements to Brierley Hill , concentrating on the land assembly required to deliver 46,470 sq ft of space at the Waterfront Business Park; and the continued regeneration of Dudley Town Centre and Castle Hill, including production of a development framework for Dudley Town Centre. Substantial progress has been made to develop complementary proposals for both centres.
11.7 It is evident from our review that both centres have the potential to accommodate significant new investment. However, it is equally evident that of the two centres, Brierely Hill already performs a more strategic role as a retail, leisure and office location, and the capacity and market demand for further large scale retail/leisure and office development is much greater than in Dudley. In Dudley Town Centre, it will still be necessary to attract new convenience and comparison retail floorspace, but this will not be of the scale and type needed to meet the strategic ‘higher order’ needs of the sub-region.
THE CURRENT ROLE OF BRIERLEY HILL
11.8 Following the development of the first phase of Merry Hill as a free standing retail warehouse park in 1986, and completion of the next five phases, comprising a total of circa 130,000 sq m gross by 1989, Merry Hill increased its share of total comparison expenditure within the study area from 2.4% in 1989 to 15.6% in 1993.
11.9 Table 11.1 illustrates the centres ranking in 2001 and 2004, based on the Experian vitality indicators based on multiple retailer representation, floorspace and the presence of key retail attractors. The table also shows the turnover of each centre, as estimated by CACI.
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Table 11.1: Black Country Centre Ranking 2001/2004
2001 2004 2004 Turnover (CACI) £m
Birmingham 5 3 2,206 Merry Hill 24 19 591
Wolverhampton 48 45 454
Walsall 85 - 279 West Bromwich 168 - 112
Dudley 316 - - Source: Retail Centre Ranking 2001, Experian/BCSC, CACI
11.10 In retail terms the Merry Hill Centre ranked 24th in the UK and was the highest ranking Black Country centre. Wolverhampton, as the highest ranking traditional centre in retail terms, achieved only 48th place, with Walsall placed 85th and West Bromwich placed at 168th. Dudley was ranked 316 in 2001. The 2004 11.2 Experian Rankings demonstrate that Birmingham has improved its rank to 3rd, and Merry Hill has risen to 9th place, while Wolverhampton remains within the top 50 centres. This graphically illustrates the polarisation of activity to Birmingham and Merry Hill and the continued decline of Dudley in comparison retail terms.
11.11 National retail trends indicate a continuing contraction in the number of shop units. Total store numbers in the UK have declined by 11% over the last 10 years. A significant and long term trend is the continuing polarisation by retailers towards larger schemes in larger centres. This has profound implications for the Black Country, best illustrated by the growth and dominance of Birmingham City Centre and Merry Hill, and the parallel decline in relative terms of centres like Dudley (precipitated by the departure of key anchor retailers such as Marks & Spencer). The focus of the most influential retailers and developers is increasingly concentrated on larger developments in dominant city centres which are, or have the potential to become, ‘top 50’ destinations with strong catchments. At present, only Merry Hill and Wolverhampton fit this profile, and it is unlikely that Dudley will ever regain this profile given the established dominance of Merry Hill.
11.12 Outside Birmingham City Centre office development is subdued, with the exception of Brierley Hill/Merry Hill. The Waterfront has been developed since the late 1980s and is now an established sub-regional office location. Reflecting its growing stature as a significant office location, over 75,000sq m of B1 space is proposed at Brierley Hill as part of the masterplan, which would significantly strengthen the position of Brierley Hill as the most significant ‘central’ office location within the Black Country after Birmingham City Centre.
11.13 Brierley Hill is also the principal focus for commercial leisure activity within Dudley, and performs a strategic leisure function which is underpinned by the Waterfront eating and drinking venues, hotel and multiplex cinema. Dudley provides a broad range of leisure and cultural attractions
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reflecting both its heritage and its previous role as the largest centre in the Borough. However, it is evident that Brierley Hill has already developed a more strategic commercial leisure function, and represents the focus of ongoing operator interest e.g. casinos.
11.14 Dudley has begun to attract interest in the residential and mixed use developments. Proposals for Dudley Zoo and Castle include 65 properties, and it is evident that the national trend towards high density city living, and the creation of genuinely mixed use residential and leisure developments within and on the edge of city centres offer significant potential for the centre, although this is not necessarily a prerequisite of a ‘strategic’ centre. Equally, it is evident that Brierley Hill is already attracting residential development.
11.15 In these circumstances, there is overwhelming survey and market evidence which demonstrates that Brierley Hill already performs a strategic role in the Black Country network of centres as a convenience/comparison and services shopping centre; and a sub-regional focus for employment and leisure. In this respect, it is already a strategic centre, and should be recognised as such in the RSS. However, we acknowledge the extent to which it is appropriate to plan to continue to meet future retail and other main town centre needs within this centre and the contribution other centres could make to meeting the strategic needs of Dudley residents.
POTENTIAL TO ACCOMMODATE STRATEGIC TOWN CENTRE NEEDS
11.16 There are two developments in the pipeline in Dudley. The first is at Flood Street/King Street which is for a comprehensive mixed use development for convenience, comparison and leisure floorspace of 19,650 sq m gross. The second relates to the erection of a garden centre and associated ‘tourist-related’ comparison floorspace on the edge of the centre. These developments are likely to reinforce the convenience and comparison offer of the centre, but will not elevate Dudley’s retail offer to that of a strategic centre.
11.17 Dudley’s comparison goods turnover was circa £136m at 2004, based on the household telephone survey. This gives Dudley the fourth largest turnover in the Black Country, behind Walsall, Wolverhampton and Merry Hill and ahead of West Bromwich. However, this largely reflects its historic position as a dominant retail centre. Looking ahead, we consider Dudley will struggle to perform a strategic comparison retail function given its proximity to Merry Hill, although it will clearly remain an important town centre with a diverse and expanding convenience, services, leisure and office centre. Population/economic growth and increased spending on retail/leisure will continue to reinforce this function.
11.18 The prospect of Dudley Town Centre regaining a strategic role, either as a key retail, leisure or office location, appears remote given its proximity to Brierley Hill, which has clearly supplemented its position in each sector. Even if it were possible to reverse the trend of the last 20 years, this would require a concerted strategy to accommodate a significant scale of ‘mainstream’
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comparison retail and associated development into the town centre. The Council’s strategy and aspirations for the centre are of a different scale, and there is no identified physical capacity, or commercial demand, for the scale of development needed to re-establish Dudley as a strategic centre or meet any significant part of the strategic town centre needs up to 2031.
11.19 This conclusion does not preclude supporting new convenience and comparison retail floorspace in Dudley, of a scale consistent with its current role. Like any other non-strategic centre, there needs to be a clearly defined strategy for the centre, set out in the LDF. The scope and detailed content of such a strategy is outside the remit of this study. There is no reason why Dudley should not be able to maintain and enhance its current position. However, unlike Brierley Hill, it does not have the potential to regain a strategic function, or make a significant contribution to accommodating strategic needs up to 2031.
11.20 The traditional centre of Brierley Hill is linear in form, the main retailing area, based on a traditional High Street and within the Moor Centre shopping precinct, comprises 30,900sq m gross floorspace. Other uses in the centre include community hall, emergency services, health centre, leisure centre, bingo, bowling, nightclub and religious buildings.
11.21 The UDP and draft SPG for Brierley Hill (2003) are based upon the Vision for the evolution of Brierley Hill as a new town centre first set out in the Brierley Hill Area Development Framework (ADF) published in July 1998 and adopted as Supplementary planning guidance by the Council in June 1999. The main components of the ‘new’ Brierley Hill include: -
1100 new homes
43,500sq m (gross) of comparison floorspace
50,000sq m of new commercial office floorspace
20,000sq m of new mixed leisure floorspace
An expanded range of civic, community and heath facilities
The full and effective integration of the areas three functional components.
Improved public and private transport access including the development and opening of Midland Metro Line 3.
The introduction of car park charging at Merry Hill as part of a balanced package of transport proposals.
11.22 The current and medium term development initiatives include the following: -
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Circa 400 residential units at Dudley Canal/BHS car park/Pedmore Road (under construction);
12,000sq m of office floorspace – Dudley Canal (under construction);
Circa 18,000sq m of mixed leisure uses – Dudley Canal;
Brierley Hill NHS LIFT scheme. 9,000sq m of new health and community facilities – former Brier School;
Midland Metro – TWA Inquiry now closed and decision awaited. Construction projected to start 2006, scheme complemented 2007/8.
Brierley Hill Integrated Transport Scheme – Funding secured for relief route to Brierley Hill High Street in 2003/4 Transport Capital Settlement. Detailed scheme design underway.
11.23 On this basis, while the traditional centre of Brierley Hill itself is clearly not strategic, the wider area is already a strategic retail, leisure and office location within the Black Country. The area does not have the characteristics of a traditional town centre, and its current accessibility by non car modes is limited. However unlike Dudley and the other centres examined in this study, it has the potential to accommodate further retail, leisure and office development and a range of other town centre functions and there is clear evidence of commercial market interests in bringing forward large scale regeneration in this area.
11.24 The current proposals/aspirations would make a significant contribution to meeting the need for new retail/leisure and office floorspace in the Black Country in the period up to 2031. Without this development the shortfall between commitments/proposals and forecast needs identified in the Black Country will be even greater. There is no evidence that any further major opportunities will arise in Dudley or other established town centres in this part of the Black Country which would meet the same need. On this basis, we consider Brierley Hill has an important role to play in meeting strategic shopping, leisure and employment needs. However, its growth has to be planned as part of an overall strategy which safeguards the future of the established Black Country Centres.
11.25 All of the scenarios examined in this study assume continued growth of Brierley Hill/Merry Hill. The area also has a key role to play in meeting strategic housing/employment needs as identified in the ongoing capacity studies. Based on our capacity projections and the limited range of opportunities elsewhere in the Black Country, without further development at Brierley Hill there will be a significant shortfall of realistic opportunities to meet defined needs by 2021. On this basis, we consider there is clear evidence to support further growth of this centre, as part of a co- ordinated ‘four centres strategy’.
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CONCLUSIONS ON THE ROLE OF BRIERLEY HILL
11.26 We consider there is a clearly defined need for further growth of Brierley Hill as a strategic retail, leisure and employment centre if the Black Country is to achieve the level of economic growth assumed in the H1 scenario. Even adopting the trendline estimates, we identify capacity for circa 66,000sq m net additional comparison shopping floorspace at Brierley Hill by 2031 (Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C) – the equivalent of circa 88,000sq m gross.
11.27 In the absence of other identified opportunities elsewhere within the Black Country to accommodate this scale of additional comparison shopping floorspace, in strategic terms we consider the choice for the Black Country is whether to capture this scale of new investment and retain current market shares, or witness continued decline of the Black Country sub-region as Birmingham City Centre continues to grow and dominate the sub-region. This scenario was specifically rejected at Black Country III and we consider it is inconsistent with the underlying objectives of PPS6.
11.28 In practice, in the H1 growth scenario, which underpins the Black Country Vision, the case for accommodating further strategic scale comparison shopping and other associated facilities as Brierley Hill becomes more compelling, and the adverse consequences of not making adequate provision become more pronounced. A number of significant issues have been identified by this study which support this conclusion: -
First, based on extensive up to date survey and market analysis, it is self-evident that Brierley Hill already serves a strategic role as a retail, leisure and office destination and has a key role in the sub-regional economy. The retail trends examined in this study suggest that the role and dominance of the centre is likely to continue to grow in any event.
This study identifies retail, leisure and other requirements over a 30 year period and provides a comprehensive overview of alternative opportunities for retail, leisure and office development in other strategic and non-strategic centres. This has demonstrated the scale of floorspace requirements within the Black Country, even on the trendline assumption, is such that there are no alternative opportunities capable of accommodating the floorspace needs arising from the Brierley Hill catchment – failure to accommodate these needs will represent a net loss of investment from the Black Country.
The growth scenario on which the strategy is based suggests a far more significant scale of additional capacity then any previous exercise, and reinforces the points made above. The additional requirements of a more affluent, expanding catchment population will only be met by maximising the development potential of Brierley Hill, in parallel with the opportunities in the other defined centres.
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Allied to the above, the growth assumptions built into this scenario provide for significant capacity for existing retail and leisure floorspace in other strategic and non-strategic centres to achieve real growth of in excess of 2.5% per annum, and do not preclude continued expansion of defined non-strategic centres (considered later). We have not assessed the impact of expansion of Brierley Hill, but in expenditure terms there will be more than sufficient growth to accommodate the scale of additional floorspace envisaged before 2016.
As a consequence of this growth, the improving vitality and viability evident in most of the centres examined will be significantly enhanced, and impact offset, by the additional scale of growth now assumed by 2031. New investment in Birmingham City Centre and other centres has now been completed or committed in most cases, and these centres are expanding strongly in contrast to the position at the time of the last Merry Hill Inquiry.
Brierley Hill is one of the few clearly defined opportunities capable of meeting short term needs i.e. in the period up to 2011, which is supported by retailer/investor demand. While Dudley and other centres also have limited development opportunities, consistent with accommodating further growth in their retail/leisure and other key town centre functions, Brierley Hill is the only opportunity within this part of the sub-region to accommodate strategic retail, leisure and employment growth.
The regeneration proposals for Brierley Hill provide the catalyst for securing improvements to public transport access which are likely to be critical to ensuring better access to a strategic scale quality shopping, leisure and employment facilities within Dudley and contributing towards more sustainable travel patterns (subject to the findings of the transport study).
The proposals provide the catalyst to unlocking significant opportunities for additional residential and employment uses in line with the regeneration strategy which, subject to the outcome of the relevant thematic studies, is likely to perform an important role underpinning the economic strategy for the Black Country.
Maintaining and enhancing the strategic function of Brierley Hill is in line with the ‘four centres strategy’, by providing a balanced network of higher order strategic centres which are well placed to serve the needs of all Black Country residents. Failure to maintain and enhance the established retail function of Brierley Hill and the continued growth of Birmingham and improvements in the other Black Country strategic centres will over time create a less balanced network, and necessitate Dudley residents travelling further afield for their strategic retail, leisure and employment needs.
11.29 For all these reasons, we consider there is a compelling case for acknowledging the strategic role of Brierley Hill, and the contribution this area can make to meeting the strategic retail, leisure and employment needs of Dudley and the Black Country sub-region. We do not consider it is tenable
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to seek to resist further expansion of this centre. However, it is important to support the planned expansion of Brierley Hill as part of an overall strategy to create a balanced network of strategic centres which involves policy intervention to manage the scale and timing of additional development. We also anticipate that improved public transport and modal shift will be preconditions of any retail/leisure expansion, although transport issues are beyond the scope of this study.
11.30 In the period up to 2031, even assuming Brierley Hill’s catchment area and market shares are curtailed by the expansion of the other strategic centres, we estimate capacity for circa 90,700sq m net, or 120,000sq m gross of additional comparison shopping development at Brierley Hill by 2031 under the ‘four centres’ Scenario 4 (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C). This implies theoretical capacity for circa 70,000 sq m gross of additional floorspace over and above current commitments and the current Brierley Hill strategy. However, these projections need to be reviewed regularly over the study period, particularly in the light of progress being made towards achieving the objectives for the other strategic centres and population/expenditure trends.
11.31 We would not support further major expansion of the retail/leisure facilities at Brierley Hill, beyond the current proposals, until the strategy for the further growth of the other strategic centres has been secured. It will also be necessary to review the pace of population and expenditure growth, and the impact of any future growth in internet retailing on high street sales before considering whether any further expansion of Brierley Hill is likely to be justified.
11.32 In addition to expansion of its higher order comparison shopping role, we anticipate Brierley Hill has the physical and economic capacity to make a significant contribution to the residential, office and commercial leisure requirements of the sub-region. The Waterfront is already an established sub-regional leisure and office destination. We anticipate further significant growth in the scale of office, residential and leisure provision, including hotels and potentially a regional scale casino.
11.33 We consider the Brierley Hill strategy is consistent with maintaining and enhancing the role of Dudley Town Centre and other traditional centres in the H1 growth scenario. We anticipate that Dudley will continue to form an important role as the administrative role of the Borough, and build on its architectural heritage and particular attractions, combining the roles of a more localised convenience and service based centre and a more specialist centre for niche retail and eating and drinking.
11.34 These conclusions are borne out by our capacity projections, which makes allowance for retailers in Dudley Town Centre to achieve real growth of in excess of 2.5% per annum year on year, and opportunities for the centre to continue to enhance its retail and leisure function in line with population and expenditure growth. This suggests there is capacity for Dudley to maintain and enhance its current role, like other non-strategic centres in the Black Country. However, for the
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reasons outlined previously, we do not consider it has the capacity to regain a strategic role, or accommodate the scale of growth likely to be required by 2031.
SUMMARY
11.35 This study has demonstrated a clear case to identify Brierley Hill as a strategic centre, and as an appropriate location to meet strategic comparison retail, leisure and office needs and other key town centre uses, subject to preconditions regarding accessibility and as part of a co-ordinated ‘four centres’ strategy to meet strategic town centre needs in the Black Country in the period up to 2031.
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12. RECOMMENDED STRATEGY
12.1 In this section, we draw together the conclusions of our analysis, to prepare a recommended strategy for the strategic centres.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
12.2 We have been instructed to base the strategy on three key assumptions: -
First, reflecting the broad options reviewed with the Steering Group and at the Black Country III Conference, and the conclusions of our own analysis, we consider there is a clear consensus that the strategy should develop the ‘four centres option’ which would support further growth at Brierley Hill, subject to certain conditions, and would support significant further expansion of Walsall and West Bromwich to provide a more balanced distribution of strategic centres serving the Black Country.
Second, notwithstanding the need for continuing analysis of the capacity and realism of the scale of economic and population growth at this stage reflecting the aspirations of the Black Country Vision, our strategy is based on the H1 growth scenario which assumes a population of the study areas will grow by some 11.7% between 2004-31.
Third, again in line with the overall vision for the Black Country, we have assumed that the effect of housing growth and the economic strategy for the Black Country will be to bring household expenditure in line with the UK average by 2031, with the consequence that the scale of retail and leisure expenditure, and demand for cultural and other town centre uses will be significantly higher than the trend line estimates.
12.3 The quantitative implications of these key assumptions are examined in scenario 4, set out in Appendix C. In contrast to the trendline comparison projections, which indicate a theoretical floorspace requirement for the four strategic centres of circa 153,071sq m net by 2031 (Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C), this scenario generates the highest capacity of 277,265sq m net additional comparison floorspace (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C). This reflects not only the higher expenditure growth projections assumed in the H1 scenario, but also that by maximising the potential for new development within the four defined centres, the option generates a maximum potential for new retail development within the Black Country.
12.4 Table 12.1 summarises the theoretical net comparison floorspace requirements for the defined strategic centres up to 2031. Table 12.2 translates these net figures into gross floorspace
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requirements, at a ratio of 75%, and deducts the major commitments/policy proposals for each centre to give a gross additional floorspace requirement by 2031.
Table 12.1: Summary of Comparison Floorspace Requirements, as at 2031 ( sq m sales area) Merry West Scenario Hill/Brierley Walsall Wolverhampton All 4 Centres Bromwich Hill
1-Trend 66,092 29,775 11,835 45,370 153,071 2 - H1 Growth 96,963 50,379 21,974 78,601 247,917
3 - 3 Centres 95,394 75,829 20,254 74,305 265,781
4 - 4 Centres 90,676 58,687 53,422 74,480 277,265 5 - Wolverhampton 47,664 21,423 92,447 99,895 261,249 Focus
Table 12.2: Gross Additional Requirements Adopting the Four Centre Strategy, as at 2031 Gross Net Sales Area Gross Additional Floorspace Requirement Floorspace of Capacity Beyond Requirement by by 2031 Commitments Commitments 2031 Sq M Sq M Sq M Sq M Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 90,676 120,000 47,000 73,000
Walsall 58,687 78,000 23,000 55,000
West Bromwich 53,422 71,000 19,000 52,000
Wolverhampton 74,480 100,000 57,000 43,000
All 4 Centres 277,265 369,000 146,000 223,000
12.5 These projections assume significant population/expenditure growth, and should be reviewed regularly. It will also be necessary to review the impact of current commitments/policy proposals in the Black Country, and competing centres, in order to refine these projections.
12.6 This review should also consider the impact of any further growth in internet retailing. If e-tailing share of comparison goods expenditure was to increase from 8% in the base year to 20% by the year 2021, there would be a reduction in capacity under Scenario 4 of circa 93,000 sq m sales area, which would equate to around about 125,000 sq m gross. Thus, e-tailing could potentially substantially reduce the identified capacity so that the Regional Assembly will need to adopt a plan monitor and manage approach to planning for retail needs beyond current
commitments/policy proposals.
12.7 In addition to identified comparison shopping needs, in this scenario we have identified the scope for significant additional commercial leisure floorspace, including; cinemas, clubs, eating and drinking facilities, reflecting the expected changes in customer profile which would suggest demand for significantly enhanced quality of leisure and cultural facilities. We have also identified market potential on conservative assumptions for up to two regional scale casinos in the Black Country over this timescale, subject to those changes in the gaming legislation.
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12.5 In this section we translate these global requirements into a strategy for each of the identified strategic centres. In the case of Brierley Hill, this analysis builds on the policy justification for further expansion of this centre, and the complementary role of Dudley considered in the previous section. In the case of West Bromwich we consider the implications of the scale of ‘step change’ needed to secure this centre’s function as a strong strategic centre.
12.6 We consider the scale and form of new retail and leisure development likely to be supportable in Wolverhampton and Walsall, and as far as possible, speculate on the scale of additional cultural and other key town centre functions, appropriate to the four strategic centres, and identify the key features derived from our review in Section 9 which have the potential to differentiate the centres as part of a polycentric network.
12.7 We also consider, in broad terms the potential for growth and complementary roles of the other non-strategic centres, although this issue is more appropriately considered as part of the process of preparing individual LDFs.
THE STRATEGIC CENTRES
i) Wolverhampton
12.8 Adopting the trendline (Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C), we estimate capacity for circa 45,370sq m net additional comparison shopping floorspace in Wolverhampton by the year 2031, equating to circa 60,000sq m gross. Allowing for additional leisure provision, this indicates capacity for circa 70,000sq m - 80,000sq m gross of additional retail/leisure floorspace within the City Centre. In addition, we expect continued demand for major leisure provision, and pressure for residential development in the Canalside Quarter and Urban Village.
12.9 The core expansion area and Raglan Street commitment in Wolverhampton will substantially meet identified retail needs in this scenario, suggesting the opportunity for further retail development will be relatively limited without further significant uplift in Wolverhampton’s market share. This is not consistent with the balanced ‘four centres strategy’ as it would tend to reinforce the dominant position of Wolverhampton, potentially at the expense of Walsall and West Bromwich.
12.10 In the four centre growth scenario (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C), we anticipate that over the period up to 2031 Wolverhampton would be able to sustain 74,480sq m net of comparison goods shopping, or about 100,000sq m gross.. This suggests scope for circa 43,000 sq m gross of additional comparison shopping floorspace, over and above the current commitments identified in Table 8.5. In addition, there is an identified commitment for a new large foodstore on the edge of the city centre, and in the H1 scenario we anticipate significant growth in the demand for commercial leisure facilities, including additional cinema provision, the creation of additional
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significant additional eating and drinking facilities, and further scope to expand the cultural attractions of the centre as a consequence of its expanding and more affluent catchment.
12.11 These projections are based on the predicted size of Wolverhampton’s catchment population based on constant market shares. Clearly the provision of significant additional office floorspace in the city centre, and additional residential development within and on the fringe of the centre will lead to some additional capacity for retail/leisure uses in the city centre, although these demands are already incorporated into the H1 growth scenario. The provision of additional significant office and residential accommodation in the city centre will reinforce its vitality and viability during the day and, in particular, support the evening economy.
12.12 We anticipate the current core expansion proposals are unlikely to be completed and established before 2011. In practice, the additional capacity arising over the study period is largely as a consequence of population and economic growth, which in practical terms is unlikely to begin to take effect until post 2021. However, this suggests that provision should be made for the further expansion of the core shopping area of the City Centre, for up to circa 43,000sq m gross additional comparison retailing plus ancillary commercial leisure development, to be completed by 2031.
12.13 If suitable opportunities for this development cannot be identified within the relatively tightly defined inner ring road, we consider further opportunities will need to be safeguarded to facilitate the expansion of the core retail area beyond the ring road. This also has a bearing on the strategy for supporting additional office and residential development adjoining the ring road, where this would potentially serve to constrain the continued expansion needs of the city centre.
12.14 In addition to reinforcing its core retail and commercial leisure offer, we consider Wolverhampton will continue to function in some respects as regional capital of the Black Country. The role of Wolverhampton is likely to continue to be differentiated by the presence of the University and Science Park and subject to the findings of the relevant thematic studies, we see Wolverhampton as having a key role to play as an office location if suitable sites can be identified.
12.15 The industrial and architectural heritage of the centre, and the Canalside Quarter also lend themselves to more specialist and up market retailing, and the creation of mixed use urban living with associated quality eating and drinking facilities within the city centre and in the Canalside Quarter. We also anticipate capacity for improved hotel accommodation, additional cinemas/night clubs, health & fitness provision and other facilities to serve the needs of cities expanding catchment population and those living and working in the city centre itself. Provision for these uses, within an expanded city centre, needs to be made through the LDF process.
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ii) Brierley Hill
12.16 For all the reasons outlined in the previous section, we consider there is a compelling case for acknowledging the strategic role of Brierley Hill, and the contribution this area can make to meeting the strategic retail, leisure and employment needs of Dudley and the Black Country sub- region. We do not consider it is tenable to seek to resist further expansion of this centre. However, it is important to support the planned expansion of Brierley Hill as part of an overall strategy to create a balanced network of strategic centres which involves policy intervention to manage the scale and timing of additional development. We also anticipate that improved public transport and modal shift will be preconditions of any retail/leisure expansion.
12.17 By 2031, adopting the RSS growth assumptions, even assuming Brierley Hill’s catchment area and market shares are curtailed by the expansion of the other strategic centres as anticipated in the ‘four centres strategy’ (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C), we estimate capacity for circa 90,700sq m net, or 120,000sq m gross of additional comparison shopping development at Brierley Hill. This implies theoretical capacity for circa 73,000 sq m gross of additional floorspace over and above the current Brierley Hill strategy. This estimate would need to be reviewed regularly over the study period, and we would not support further major expansion of the retail/leisure facilities at Brierley Hill, beyond the current proposals, until the current commitments/policy process, and strategy for the further growth of the other strategic centres have been secured.
12.18 In addition to expansion of its higher order comparison shopping role, we anticipate Brierley Hill has the physical and economic capacity to make a significant contribution to the residential, office and commercial leisure requirements of the sub-region. The Waterfront is already an established sub-regional leisure and office destination and the centres capacity for further growth is identified in the Housing and Employment Capacity Studies. We anticipate further significant growth in the scale of office, residential and leisure provision, including hotels and potentially a regional scale casino.
12.19 We consider the Brierley Hill strategy is consistent with maintaining and enhancing the role of Dudley Town Centre and other traditional centres in the H1 growth scenario. We anticipate that Dudley will continue to form an important role as the administrative role of the Borough, and build on its architectural heritage and particular attractions, combining the roles of a more localised convenience and service based centre and a more specialist centre for niche retail and eating and drinking.
iii) Walsall
12.20 Walsall already functions as an established strategic retail centre, as a major administrative centre and an established cultural destination and centre for eating and drinking. On the basis of
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its established market share, even in the trend line scenario we have identified capacity for circa 30,000sq m net, or 40,000sq m gross, of additional comparison shopping floorspace i.e. well above the current aspirations for Shannon’s Mill. On this basis, it is evident that the LDF needs to make provision for further comparison retail development within the centre.
12.21 In parallel, the current strategy identifies opportunities for improved main foodstore provision, and the centre lacks key leisure facilities including a cinema. The existing strategy also identifies the role for the development additional residential accommodation to reinforce the distinctive role of Walsall as a living, cultural and heritage centre with a vibrant evening economy. We consider there will be capacity for this scale of incremental growth, even the trend based projections.
12.22 In the growth scenario, we anticipate significant potential to expand the current comparison retail offer of the centre beyond its current, largely mid market positioning. The four centres scenario indicates potential for 58,687sq m net of additional comparison shopping floorspace in Walsall by 2031 (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C), equating to an overall capacity of circa 78,000sq m gross comparison shopping floorspace. This indicates a potential for circa 50,000sq m gross of additional comparison retail development (over and above the existing commitments identified in Table 8.5) in order to maintain and enhance Walsall’s role.
12.23 The precise scale and timing of additional development beyond current commitments depends on the pace of population change and economic growth. This needs to be reviewed once the current commitments have been developed when their impact on market shares and retailer investor perceptions of the centre can also be reviewed. However, our analysis suggests that in preparing its LDF, Walsall needs to identify appropriate opportunities for further significant expansion of the centres comparison retail and commercial leisure offer.
12.24 These needs should be balanced against opportunities for further residential and office development when determining appropriate policies and proposals for key city centre sites and opportunities for expansion of the existing core. We consider the preparation of a masterplan, to identify the extent of the expanded core shopping area identified to meet future comparison retail needs, and the appropriate location(s) for future office, residential, commercial, leisure and cultural facilities is a key step to developing a clear strategy for the centre.
iv) West Bromwich
12.25 Of the specific recommendations for individual strategic centres, the potential for West Bromwich to expand to fulfil the role of a strategic centre within the Black Country is the most dependent on forecast population and economic growth. The strategy also involves the most significant step change, is the most ambitious, and most difficult to translate into specific proposals.
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12.26 Based on its current market share (Spreadsheet 7 of Appendix C), in the trend line scenario we only identify capacity for 11,835sq m net of additional comparison goods shopping floorspace by 2031, which equates to circa 16,000sq m gross. This is less than the scale of additional comparison floorspace proposed in the town centre, and reflects the very low market share currently achieved by the centre. In practice, we anticipate this development, and other recent investment in the centre including Astle Park will serve to increase market share sufficient to support current proposals for the centre.
12.27 However, this scale and form of development is essentially consistent with the role of a town centre. A large food store and range of mid market multiple retailers is not in itself likely to perform any strategic retail function. The pUBLIC provides a catalyst for arts/culture and civic uses, although the main administrative centre of Sandwell is likely to continue to be located in Oldbury. We expect this, and the town centre retail development to provide the stimulus for further modest organic growth of the centre, potentially including additional comparison retailing, commercial leisure uses and enhanced eating and drinking facilities. However, in itself this will not achieve the step change needed in West Bromwich.
12.28 The opportunity for achieving step change, and transforming West Bromwich into a genuinely strategic centre as part of a balanced network of Black County centres is likely to depend on reversing population decline and achieving sustained economic growth. This is evident from our economic modelling. This indicates that the combined effect of population and expenditure growth within the West Bromwich catchment, and the potential to secure an increased market share within this catchment, suggests potential capacity for circa 53,422sq m net by 2031 (Spreadsheet 10 of Appendix C). This translates to circa 71,000sq m gross by 2031, indicating capacity for circa 52,000sq m gross of additional comparison shopping floorspace in the centre over and above the current aspirations.
12.29 We consider development of this scale would be supportable in the H1 scenario based on a growing, increasingly affluent catchment population, and benefiting from the highly strategic location of West Bromwich. While this scale of development would be regarded as highly aspirational in current market circumstances, and unlikely to attract the quality department and variety stores needed to anchor such development, we consider it is a realistic aspiration in the H1 scenario.
12.30 In parallel with the potential for step change in the retail offer of West Bromwich, we consider the location has significant potential in the longer term to emerge as a significant employment area, and a strategic location for commercial leisure. The specific need for a step change, and regeneration needs of the area warrant its consideration for a regional scale casino and associated facilities, for which we have identified capacity post deregulation. The location also benefits from strategic rail and motorway links, and its proximity to Birmingham City Centre,
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suggesting the area has potential as a strategic office location building on the emerging office market developing the M5 junctions.
12.31 Unlike Wolverhampton, Brierley Hill and Walsall, where there are already identified proposals for accommodating further expansion, the current aspirations for West Bromwich fall well short of the strategic potential we have identified. This suggests a more ambitious approach is needed, to develop an overall vision for the wider West Bromwich area through the preparation of a masterplan to identify where strategic retail, leisure, employment and residential development would best be located. It may be appropriate to identify West Bromwich as the priority location for a regional casino serving the Black Country, to act as a catalyst for investment and contribute to achieving the ‘step change’ needed.
12.32 While this scale of development requires a visionary, far reaching approach and is unlikely to be achievable until post 2021 when tangible evidence of population and economic growth is discernible, we consider the Local Development Framework should identify the potential extent of the expanded town centre, and the main strategic locations for retail, leisure, employment and housing development. The LDF should also identify the steps which will be anticipated to develop and bring forward the concept, including the main infrastructure requirements and, if necessary, commitment to site assembly in order to bring forward the planned expansion of the centre.
NON-STRATEGIC CENTRES
12.33 The primary focus of this study is the role and capacity for growth in the strategic centres. However, the study has examined all the centres within the Black Country in some detail, as described in section 9, and the capacity analysis identifies scope for additional comparison retail and commercial leisure development across the sub-region which will continue to be met, in part, in the non-strategic centres.
12.34 It is evident from Appendix C that in the four centres scenario, the strategic centres are expected to accommodate circa 277,000sq m net of additional comparison shopping floorspace in the period 2004-31 (Spreadsheet 10), out of a total global capacity of nearly 408,000sq m net(Spreadsheet 5) i.e. leaving a residual surplus, after allowing for continued real growth in existing floorspace efficiency across the sub-region, of circa 130,500sq m net. Equally, on the same basis, about 30% of the growth in leisure spending identified would be potentially available to support the non-strategic centres.
12.35 On this basis, it is evident that the strategy to focus higher order comparison retail, leisure and other ‘town centre’ uses into a network of four strategic centres does not entail any redistribution of activity or imply decline in the other, non-strategic centres. In practice, subject to the distribution of new population growth and changing affluence of each centres catchment, this
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strategy provides for the parallel growth of non-strategic centres, albeit reflecting their position at a different level in the retail network. This reflects the national trends identified earlier in this report, with polarisation of mainstream retail activity towards a smaller network of strategic centres, with a greater focus on everyday convenience and comparison retail, leisure and service functions within a more extensive network of town and district centres.
12.36 Detailed consideration of the strategy for non-strategic centres is more appropriately considered through the LDF process. In practice, we have not identified any significant proposals or opportunities in the identified non-strategic centres which are likely to be capable of accommodating any significant scale of higher order comparison retail, or strategically significant leisure, employment or cultural facilities which would be more appropriately concentrated in the strategic centres. The key role of the RSS is to define the network and set the parameters for growth of the main strategic centres.
12.37 From our analysis, it is evident that most of the non-strategic centres are underpinned by large foodstores, or are the subject of proposals from this form of development. The comparison retail offer of these centres typically lacks a major department or variety store (which is again consistent with the ongoing pattern of retail polarisation) but comprise a reasonable selection of mid market and value oriented everyday comparison retailing. At present, none of the centres examined has developed a strong distinct specialist or niche role which extends beyond its immediate catchment.
12.38 In the economic growth scenario we expect distinct roles and specialities to emerge, guided by detailed town centre strategies prepared through the LDF process. The opportunities for developing these distinct specialist roles are also likely to arise through continued development of the sub-regional tourism/cultural strategy to build on the unique heritage and environment in some of the centres, including Dudley.
12.39 We do not anticipate the non-strategic centres are likely to develop a significant employment/office sector, again based on the limited development opportunities and limited accessibility to labour markets. A growing, more affluent population will generate opportunities to reinforce local service functions i.e. banks, building societies etc., and locally based professional services. However, subject to the findings of the employment land study, we anticipate most of the new office and employment floorspace required in the Black Country would be focused in the strategic centres, and/or strategically located developments adjoining the main motorway junctions.
12.40 The significant growth forecast in the commercial leisure sector will also give rise to opportunities for expansion of the non-strategic centres. Again we anticipate that developments serving an extensive catchment e.g. cinemas, theatres, auditorium etc. are likely to be focused in the four
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strategic centres, as will regional scale casinos/resorts and the major hotels which will be needed to service the expanding economy.
12.41 Depending on their size, we anticipate a number of the non-strategic centres will be able to support a wider range of leisure provision, including the development of smaller cinemas, and eating and drinking facilities catering for the growing needs of their more affluent catchments. Again the scale and distribution of growth in this sector will largely be determined by the distribution of new housing growth which will determine the spending power of local catchments.
12.42 While the overall strategy envisages the concentration of strategic higher functions within the defined network of four centres, there will be potential to develop facilities serving a sub-regional catchment which by reason of physical constraints or viability cannot realistically be accommodated within or on the edge of the strategic centres. Consistent with the polycentric network of centres, the framework needs sufficient flexibility to enable the development of such facilities within or on the edge of non-strategic centres where they provide an opportunity to serve the wider needs of the sub-region and enhance the overall offer.
12.43 One example is the recent Secretary of State decision to support an ice rink and sub-regional five-a-side football facility at Oldbury. As the opportunities for additional sports, leisure and cultural facilities within the Black Country expand as part of the growing economy, we anticipate further opportunities will arise which may be difficult to accommodate in the strategic centres. In such circumstances, these may be appropriately located within or on the edge of non strategic centres in order to supplement their more localised role.
SUMMARY
12.44 We have developed a strategy for the strategic centres which adopts the consensus of support for the ‘four centres strategy’, and adopts the growth assumptions which underpin the Black Country Vision. Clearly if these assumptions prove unrealistic this strategy would need to be reviewed.
12.45 Adopting these assumptions, we consider the regional spatial strategy should define a network of four strategic centres; Wolverhampton, Walsall, Brierley Hill and West Bromwich. The role of Wolverhampton and Walsall is uncontentious, although both centres will need to expand their retail core significantly beyond their current aspirations to meet the needs identified.
12.46 For the reasons outlined previously, we consider it will be essential to realise the capacity which exists for further retail, office and housing development at Brierley Hill in order to meet the growth aspirations for the Black Country. On this basis, the strategy should support the current proposals by 2011, thereafter, we anticipate further growth should be resisted until the strategy for step change in the role of the other strategic centres has been secured.
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12.47 Achieving the necessary step change in the role of West Bromwich represents the most ambitious and most challenging aspect of the strategy. However, in the growth scenario tested, we anticipate capacity for significant strategic comparison retail development, of circa 52,000 sq m gross over and above current aspirations by 2031, and capacity for further strategic leisure development, potentially incorporating a regional scale casino, and major office development building on the centres strategic motorway/main line rail links.
12.48 Our capacity projections incorporate significant capacity for the continued organic growth of the non-strategic centres. Their retail function will be underpinned by their convenience and everyday comparison offer, and we anticipate capacity to expand both the scale and quality of offer as their catchments grow. Equally, we anticipate increased demand for local services, restaurants/bars and cultural/community facilities. These opportunities will need to be explored as part of the preparation of detailed town centre strategies through the LDF process.
12.49 While each of the strategic centres will be expected to offer comparable key components i.e. a higher order comparison retail offer, leisure, entertainment/cultural facilities and its own employment base, each will have a distinct character and unique offering; Wolverhampton as a major heritage centre, the traditional capital of the Black Country, with its university and administrative functions; Walsall with its industrial heritage blend of historic architecture and new developments, vibrant evening economy and cultural offer; Brierley Hill as a major shopping and commercial leisure destination; and West Bromwich reborn as a new city centre with sub- regionally significant retail and commercial leisure provision and providing one of the major office and employment locations in the Black Country.
12.50 The importance of distinctiveness, and the combined attractiveness of a network of centres, also applies to the non-strategic centres. We expect their more localised every day functions will be supplemented by the emergence of niche, specialist functions, and the development of sub- regional facilities where these cannot realistically be accommodated within or on the edge of the strategic centres.
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13. SUMMARY OF KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
13.1 Subject to the conclusions of the wider West Midlands Study, we consider the early review of RSS should identify a network of four strategic centres in the Black Country.
13.2 The RSS should support the continued expansion of Wolverhampton and Walsall, supporting the implementation of current planned initiatives by 2011, and support further strategic growth of both centres to meet identified needs up to 2031. This needs to include provision for circa 50,000 sq m gross of additional comparison retail floorspace (over and above current commitments) and associated leisure facilities in each, which will underpin expansion of both core areas.
13.3 RSS should identify West Bromwich as a strategic centre serving the Black Country sub-region. In addition to supporting the current strategy, RSS should provide the strategic framework for the Council/Regenco to prepare a development framework for expansion on the centre as a major comparison, retail, leisure and employment centre.
13.4 RSS should identify Brierley Hill as a strategic centre, and support the current initiatives for expansion of comparison retail, leisure, offices and residential uses up to 2011 subject to meeting preconditions for accessibility for alternative means of transport/modal split. Thereafter, the centre has the potential for significant further growth, but this should be reviewed depending on the pace of economic growth and progress towards achieving the necessary scale of investment in the other defined centres.
13.5 The non-strategic centres reviewed in the study should be afforded equal status in policy terms in RSS, which should make it clear that individual LDFs should prepare strategies for growth of each centre, in line with the strategic growth assumptions which underpin the Black County strategy. Policies for non-strategic centres should not preclude provision of facilities serving a wider sub-regional role where there is a clearly defined need which cannot be met within or on the edge of a strategic centre.
13.6 This strategy is based on ambitious population and expenditure growth assumptions and an assumed distribution of growth between the four centres and corridors. It is critical that a robust assessment of the scale and distribution of housing development and employment provision is completed in order prepare more robust assessments for the scale of growth and opportunities within each centre, and the strategy should be reviewed following completion of the current commitments/policy proposals.
13.7 In parallel with this process, the development of an effective centres strategy requires a detailed assessment of the transport networks needed to support the existing and expanded population
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and economic base of the Black County, and to support the scale of expansion of the strategic and non-strategic centres required under the growth scenario.
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APPENDIX 1: ON STREET SURVEY STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
IN CENTRE SURVEY
INTRODUCTION
1.1 A comprehensive street-side survey of 12001 people was conducted by NEMS Market Research in the centres of Walsall, Wolverhampton, Merry Hill and West Bromwich in March 2004. The users of the centres were surveyed on issues such as their reason for visiting the centre, the range and quality of the services on offer, and how the centre could be improved. Data were also collected on more quantitative issues, such as the respondent’s mode of travel and the frequency of their visits.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
1.2 Chart 1 illustrates the social class of respondents at each of the centres, in comparison to a benchmark for the West Midlands sub-region, derived from 2001 Census2 data. Below we highlight some of the headline findings.
1.3 All four centres attracted relatively few respondents from social group AB compared to the proliferation of this group throughout the sub-region. This trend was particularly apparent at Wolverhampton, where just 3 per cent of respondents fell within AB.
1.4 The incidence of social group C1 amongst users of each of the centres was higher than that across the West Midlands sub-region as a whole. This was especially true of Wolverhampton and Merry Hill, where 43 per cent and 26 per cent respectively of the survey group were identified as being within class C1.
1.5 With regard to the numbers of social group C2 visiting the centres, Wolverhampton had a slightly higher proportion of visitors falling within this category vis-à-vis the sub-regional figure. By comparison, Merry Hill had proportionally the fewest, with 11 per cent of visitors.
1.6 Wolverhampton had the lowest incidence of social group DE visitors, 32 per cent, compared to the sub-regional figure, which shows that 41 per cent of adults fell within this category in 2001.
1.7 Overall, respondents at Wolverhampton differed most noticeably from the sub-regional benchmark, with proportionally fewer respondents in groups AB and DE, and a corresponding high percentage falling within groups C1 and C2.
1 300 people were interviewed in each of the centres 2 Source: Table UV50 Approximated Social Grade, 2001 Census, National Statistics website STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Chart 1 – Social Class of Respondents at Each Centre
Social Class of Respondents
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentage of Respondents of Percentage Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich West Midlands AB 9% 3% 10% 8% 17% C1 32% 43% 36% 32% 26% C2 18% 22% 11% 16% 16% DE 41% 32% 43% 44% 41% Centre
EXPLANATION OF WEIGHTINGS USED
1.8 The results of the street survey are weighted in two ways: by pedestrian count only, and by pedestrian count and frequency of visit. The weighting by pedestrian count only is referred to in our analysis as ‘trips’ – the survey results having been weighted by pedestrian count per survey location, in order to achieve a fair share of responses for each survey location (that is, a survey of ‘trips’). The second weighting is referred to as ‘people’ – that is, no account is taken in this weighting of the number of interviews achieved at each survey location. The ‘people’ weighting is instead weighted by the inverse of the frequency of the visit, in order to down-weight the potential for over-representation in the survey from more frequent visitors. This approach to weighting follows the advice in URPI’s Information Brief 91/2, which states:
‘Since people who shop more frequently are more likely to be interviewed than those who shop less frequently, they will be over-represented in a sample of shopping trips. To correct this over-representation, each respondent's data should be weighted, using a weight less than one for frequent shoppers, and a weight greater than one for infrequent shoppers.’
1.9 The headline findings from the results are presented below. For questions 1, 2 and 4, we provide commentary in relation to both the ‘trips’ and the ‘people’ weightings. For the remaining questions, we confine our commentary to the ‘people’ weighting, since these questions generally relate to more qualitative issues for which the survey location of respondents does not skew the results. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
MODE OF TRANSPORT USED TO ACCESS THE CENTRE (Q1)
1.10 Half or more of trips to each of Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich were made by bus (Table 1). In contrast, just 20 per cent of journeys to Merry Hill had been made by the same mode of transport, compared to 50 per cent of journeys made by car. This variation in mode of transport reflects the availability of 10,000 free car parking spaces at Merry Hill.
Table 1 – Mode of Transport Used to Access the Centre
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Bus Car Bus Car Car Bus Bus Car Trips 54% 25% 52% 28% 50% 20% 50% 21% Bus Car Bus Car Car Bus Bus Car People 51% 30% 48% 30% 49% 16% 46% 23%
PREDICTED LENGTH OF TIME TO BE SPENT IN THE CENTRE (Q2)
1.11 Merry Hill had by far the largest amount of respondents who expected to spend two or more hours at the centre (44 per cent of trips, Table 2). By comparison, only 16 per cent of trips to West Bromwich were anticipated to result in two or more hours being spent in the centre.
Table 2 – Predicated Length of Time to be Spent in the Centre
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Trips 27% 34% 44% 16%
People 28% 33% 40% 19%
FREQUENCY OF VISIT TO THE CENTRE (Q3)
Food Shopping
1.12 A greater percentage of respondents visited Walsall and West Bromwich to shop for food on a regular basis than the other two centres (Table 3). Whilst for all four centres over half of respondents rarely (less than once every quarter), or never, visited to shop for food, Wolverhampton fared particularly poorly with 77 per cent of respondents visiting for this purpose on such an infrequent basis.
Table 3 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for the Purposes of Food Shopping
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
2 or more journeys per week 16% 7% 8% 22%
No journeys or less than 59% 77% 54% 59% quarterly
Non-Food Shopping
1.13 With regard to the frequency of visits for the purpose of non-food shopping, few respondents at any of the four centres visited the centre once a week or more for this purpose (Table 4). STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
However, only 14 per cent of respondents at Merry Hill never or rarely (less than once a quarter) visited to shop for non-food items, reflecting its strong retail function.
Table 4 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for the Purposes of Non-Food Shopping
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
1 or more journeys per week 18% 15% 18% 18% No journeys or less than 33% 37% 14% 38% quarterly
Drinking / Eating Out
1.14 Walsall had the highest percentage of respondents visiting on a frequent basis to have a drink or to eat out (Table 5). West Bromwich performed least well with only 11 per cent visiting the centre to eat and drink once a week or more and 78 per cent visiting on a less than quarterly basis, or not at all, for this purpose.
Table 5 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for the Purposes of Drinking or Eating Out
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
1 or more journeys per week 25% 20% 11% 11% No journeys or less than 54% 59% 42% 78% quarterly
Personal Services
1.15 The more traditional centres of Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich appear to better provide for services such as banking, solicitors and hairdressing, with almost a quarter of respondents in West Bromwich visiting to take advantage of these services upwards of once a quarter (Table 6). Only 7 per cent of respondents visit Merry Hill to use equivalent services once a quarter or more.
Table 6 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for the Use of Personal Services
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Once a quarter or more 20% 18% 7% 23%
No journeys or less than quarter 51% 61% 64% 54%
Public Services
1.16 Merry Hill again performs poorly in relation to the other centres with regard to the provision of public services (Table 7). Whilst less than 10 per cent of respondents visited any of the centres on a more than quarterly basis to use services such as Council Offices, library, doctor or dentist, 0 per cent visited Merry Hill for this purpose at such a frequency. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 7 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for the Use of Public Services
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Once a quarter or more 3% 7% 0% 7% No journeys or less than 82% 80% 96% 78% quarter
Work
1.17 The highest percentage of respondents visiting once a week or more for the purposes of work was achieved at West Bromwich (Table 8). Merry Hill once again fared badly, with just 2 per cent of respondents visiting once a week or more and 97 per cent journeying for the purpose of work on a less than quarterly basis.
Table 8 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for Work
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
One or more days a week 13% 16% 2% 21%
No journeys or less than 85% 81% 97% 78% quarterly
Education
1.18 Wolverhampton is utilised by a considerably higher percentage of respondents for the purpose of education than the other three centres (Table 9). 14 per cent of the survey group visited the centre for this reason once a week or more. By contrast, 99 per cent of respondents never or rarely (less than once a quarter) visited Merry Hill for the same reason, with Walsall and West Bromwich performing only slightly better.
Table 9 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for Education
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
One or more days a week 3% 14% 0% 4% No journeys or less than 96% 83% 99% 95% quarterly
Commercial Leisure Facilities
1.19 Frequent journeys to utilise commercial leisure facilities, such as the cinema, gym, bingo and so on, were uncommon across all four centres (Table 10). West Bromwich performed especially poorly with 95 per cent of people interviewed stating that they visited that centre to use such facilities on a less than quarterly basis. This compares to Merry Hill, with 80 per cent visiting the centre at the same frequency for the same purpose. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 10 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre for Commercial Leisure Facilities
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
One or more days a week 6% 2% 4% 2%
No journeys or less than 85% 89% 80% 95% quarterly
MAIN REASON FOR VISITING THE CENTRE (Q4)
1.20 Non-food shopping was the main reason given for visiting all four of the centres (Table 11). West Bromwich recorded the lowest proportion of trips for the principal reason of non-food shopping, with 35 per cent of visits being made for this purpose. This contrasts sharply with Merry Hill, the only centre with greater than half of visits being undertaken predominantly for non-food retailing. In Walsall, Merry Hill and West Bromwich, food shopping achieved the next highest proportion of responses as the main reason for visiting the centre. The exception was Wolverhampton, where 11 per cent of trips were for the purpose of “meeting someone”.
Table 11 – Main Reason for Visiting the Centre
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Main Next Main Main Next Main Next Next reason reason reason reason reason reason reason reason Non-food Food Non-food To meet Non-food Food Non-food Food Trips shop shop shop someone shop shop shop shop (40%) (12%) (43%) (11%) (61%) (19%) (35%) (17%) Non-food Food Non-food Non-food Food Non-food Food Education People shop shop shop shop shop shop shop (9%) (40%) (12%) (40%) (67%) (19%) (24%) (18%)
ASPECTS OF THE CENTRES MOST LIKED BY RESPONDENTS (Q5)
1.21 Table 12 contains the responses that 10 per cent or more of people surveyed identified as being their favourite aspect of the centre. West Bromwich’s limited range of responses, including 29 per cent stating that they most liked “nothing” about the centre, suggests a strong dissatisfaction with the services and environment on offer. Likewise, Wolverhampton’s survey group only identified a limited number of features that people liked most, with ‘nothing’ being the most popular response (26 per cent of respondents). Merry Hill had the greatest range of responses, and was the only centre with more than 10 per cent of those surveyed identifying the centre’s cleanliness, available parking and other environmental factors as being the features that they liked most. Walsall performed particularly well for offering a choice of both independent and high street multiple shops. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 12 – Aspects of the Centre Most Liked by Respondents
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Choice of 35% Nothing 26% Near 37% Near 36% multiple shops
Near 33% Near 19% Everything 23% Nothing 29%
Choice of Choice of Good public independent 15% 10% Easy parking 21% 15% multiple shops transport shops Choice of Pedestrianised 13% independent 20% streets shops Good public 13% Cleanliness 18% toilets Choice of Nothing 12% 16% multiple shops
Everything 12% Not too crowded 13%
Other environmental 13% factor
ASPECTS OF THE CENTRE MOST DISLIKED BY RESPONDENTS (Q6)
1.22 Table 13 contains the responses that 10 per cent or more of respondents identified as being what they disliked most about their centre. For all four centres the most popular response was ‘nothing’, with Merry Hill having by far the highest proportion of those interviewed giving this response, at 57 per cent. More than a quarter of those surveyed in Walsall identified its dirty streets as being what they most disliked about the centre, and the dirty nature of the streets also featured as the one of the most disliked aspects of Wolverhampton and West Bromwich centres. Wolverhampton was the only centre where more than 10 per cent of respondents stated a perception of being unsafe as their most disliked feature.
Table 13 – Aspects of the Centre Most Disliked by Respondents
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Nothing 28% Nothing 26% Nothing 57% Nothing 25%
Quality of Dirty streets 28% Feels unsafe 19% Overcrowded 11% shops is 18% inadequate Lack of Dirty streets 10% 17% multiple shops
Dirty streets 14%
ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL RANGE & QUALITY OF SHOPS IN THE CENTRES (Q7)
1.23 Walsall and Merry Hill performed the best of the four centres with more than four fifths of respondents being very satisfied or satisfied with the range and quality of shops (Table 14). West Bromwich had the lowest percentage of respondents being at least satisfied with the range and quality of the retail offer, at just 40 per cent. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 14 – Assessment of the Overall Range and Quality of Shops in the Centres
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Very satisfied or satisfied 83% 62% 89% 40%
SUGGESTED IMPROVEMENTS TO THE CENTRE’S OVERALL RANGE & QUALITY OF SHOPS (Q8-Q10)
1.24 Collated in Table 15 are the responses that 10 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the principal way in which the overall range and quality of shops could be improved. At all four centres, the most popular response was for those surveyed not to be able to identify any way in which the centre’s shopping could be improved. This response was particularly prevalent at Walsall (55 per cent of respondents) and Merry Hill (60 per cent), which correlates with the good levels of satisfaction recorded at those centres for other questions relating to the shopping offer. Moreover, a further 11 per cent stated that the range and quality of shops at Merry Hill doesn’t need improving in any way.
1.25 In West Bromwich almost one in five considered that more big name stores were required in order to improve the retail offer of the centre. After being questioned as to the main way in which the centre’s range and quality of shops could be improved, the survey group was then asked to suggest further appropriate measures. Only one response was suggested by more than 10 per cent of respondents, this being at West Bromwich, where providing more clothes shops was considered to be the second most effective way of improving the range and quality of shops by 12 per cent of those surveyed.
Table 15 – Suggested Improvements to the Centre’s Overall Range and Quality of Shops
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Don’t know 55% Don’t know 43% Don’t know 60% Don’t know 39%
More clothes More variety of Doesn’t need More big 12% 10% 11% 19% shops shops improving name stores More clothes 12% shops
FREQUENCY OF VISITS TO THE CENTRE IN THE EVENING (Q11)
1.26 Wolverhampton had the greatest proportion (22 per cent) of interviewees visiting the centre at least once a week in the evening (Table 16). By contrast, just 5 per cent of respondents in Merry Hill and West Bromwich visited in the evening on a weekly or greater basis, and 90 per cent never or rarely (less than quarterly) visited the latter in the evening.
Table 16 – Frequency of Visits to the Centre in the Evening
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
One day a week or more 13% 22% 5% 5%
Never or less than quarterly 74% 61% 72% 90% STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
MAIN PURPOSE OF EVENING VISIT (Q12)
1.27 The reasons given for visiting a centre at night provided by a minimum of 10 per cent of respondents are shown in Table 17. With the exception of Merry Hill, the predominant reason to visit each of the centres in the evening was to visit bars and pubs. 71 per cent of interviewees in Walsall journeyed for the primary purpose of visiting licensed premises, with the next most popular response being to meet friends (15 per cent). The responses for Merry Hill were notably different, with 44 per cent visiting at night principally to shop and 34 per cent to visit the cinema, and only 27 per cent visiting for the purpose of using bars and pubs.
Table 17 – Main Purpose of Evening Visits
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Bars / pubs 71% Bars / pubs 62% Shopping 44% Bars / pubs 50%
Meet friends 15% Don’t know 14% Cinema 34% Eating out 18%
Theatre / Eating out 18% 11% Bars / pubs 27% Meet friends 18% concerts
Eating out 10% Shopping 14%
ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRE’S PERFORMANCE AS A LOCATION FOR EVENING ENTERTAINMENT (Q13)
1.28 The highest proportion of respondents satisfied or very satisfied with their centre as a location for evening entertainment was recorded at Walsall, apparently correlating with the high percentage of people visiting Walsall to use bars and pubs of an evening (Table 18). Despite the fact that shopping formed the primary reason for visiting Merry Hill in the evening for 44 per cent of those questioned, 62 per cent stated that they were at least satisfied with its performance as a location for evening entertainment.
Table 18 – Assessment of the Centre’s Performance as a Location for Evening Entertainment
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Very satisfied or satisfied 84% 67% 62% 58%
SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVING THE CENTRE AS A LOCATION FOR EVENING ENTERTAINMENT (Q14-Q16)
1.29 Table 19 contains the responses that 10 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the principal way in which the centre could be improved as a location for evening entertainment. The most popular response at each of the centres was “don’t know”, with better policing being the only factor suggested by more than 10 per cent of respondents at Walsall. After being questioned as to the main way in which the centre could be improved for evening entertainment, the survey group was then asked to suggest further appropriate measures. These results were considerably more fragmented, with no single secondary measure being identified by more than 10 per cent of the survey group (and, hence, they do not appear in Table 19 below). STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 19 – Suggestions for Improving the Centre as a Location for Evening Entertainment
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Don’t know 43% Don’t know 61% Don’t know 72% Don’t know 43%
More / better Better policing 23% Nothing 13% 15% pubs
Better policing 14%
ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRE’S OVERALL CULTURAL AND FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT OFFER (Q17)
1.30 With regard to the cultural and family entertainment offer of the centre (comprising such elements as theatre, museums, galleries and places of interest), two centres performed almost equally well (Table 20). 46 per cent of the Wolverhampton sample group, and 44 per cent of those questioned at Merry Hill, considered themselves satisfied or very satisfied with the cultural and family entertainment offer of the centre. Only 7 per cent of respondents at Merry Hill were dissatisfied or worse. By way of contrast, just 5 per cent of those questioned at West Bromwich stated that they were satisfied or very satisfied with the cultural and entertainment facilities offered, and 50 per cent were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.
Table 20 – Assessment of the Centre’s Overall Cultural and Family Entertainment Offer
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Very satisfied or satisfied 29% 46% 44% 5%
Dissatisfied or very dissatisfied 15% 10% 7% 50%
SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVING THE CENTRE’S OVERALL CULTURAL AND FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT (Q18-Q20)
1.31 Table 21 illustrates the responses that 10 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the principal way in which the overall cultural and family entertainment offer of each centre can be improved. Again, most respondents struggled to provide any suggested improvement, instead answering “don’t know”. Only in West Bromwich did any single additional facility register more than 10 per cent of responses, with 18 per cent stating that a cinema would be the most important addition to the centre’s cultural and family entertainment offer. Across all four centres, 8 per cent of respondents considered a new or improved cinema the most needed facility, with 4 per cent stating that a new or improved theatre would be their preferred additional facility. Interviewees were then asked to suggest further additional facilities that would be beneficial. These results were again extremely fragmented, with no single secondary measure being identified by more than 10 per cent of the survey group.
Table 21 – Suggestions for Improving the Centre’s Overall Cultural and Family Entertainment
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Don’t know 64% Don’t know 65% Don’t know 85% Don’t know 40%
Cinema 18% STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRE’S ROLE AS A PROVIDER OF PUBLIC SERVICES (Q21)
1.32 Merry Hill was the only centre with less than half of respondents being satisfied or very satisfied with the provision of public services such as job centres, library, police station, and so on (Table 22).
Table 22 – Assessment of the Centre’s Role as a Provider of Public Services
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Very satisfied or satisfied 50% 56% 39% 51%
SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVING THE CENTRE’S ROLE AS A PROVIDER OF PUBLIC SERVICES (Q22-Q24)
1.33 Table 23 contains the responses that 10 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the principal way in which the overall cultural and family entertainment offer of each centre could be improved. Most people interviewed did not suggest any improvement, instead stating that they did not know. In Wolverhampton 11 per cent stated that the public service provision does not need to be improved. Between 5 and 7 per cent of respondents at each of the centres considered that there should be better policing or security. Interviewees were then asked to suggest further additional services that would be beneficial. No single measure suggested as the second-best option to improve public services was common to 10 per cent or more of the survey group.
Table 23 – Suggestions for Improving the Centre’s Role as a Provider of Public Services
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Don’t know 85% Don’t know 65% Don’t know 84% Don’t know 82%
Doesn’t need 11% improving
ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY OF THE CENTRES (Q25)
1.34 Of the four centres, Merry Hill achieved the highest proportion of “good” or “very good” responses under each of the ten environmental factors that respondents were questioned on (Table 24), achieving a response of good or very good of over 80 per cent in relation to all factors, apart from ‘architectural quality of buildings’. This contrasts sharply with the highest “good” or “very good” response achieved in the remaining three centres, which was 40 per cent in Walsall (‘quality of public seating’).
1.35 Whilst 99 per cent of respondents at Merry Hill considered the cleanliness of its shopping area to be good or very good, over half of those questioned considered Walsall and West Bromwich’s cleanliness to be poor or very poor. Similarly, although 95 per cent of those questioned in Merry Hill considered the level of personal safety to be good or better, less than one third at Walsall, and fewer still at Wolverhampton and West Bromwich, shared this opinion. In relation to aesthetic factors – the overall appearance of the townscape and the STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
architectural quality of the buildings – substantially lower levels of satisfaction were apparent in West Bromwich than in the other centres.
Table 24 – Assessment of the Environmental Quality of the Centres
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich Good Poor or Good Poor or Good Poor or Good Poor or or very very or very very or very very or very very good poor good poor good poor good poor Cleanliness of 20% 51% 35% 34% 99% 0% 12% 52% shopping streets Street furniture 28% 31% 26% 25% 92% 3% 28% 33% Personal safety / 33% 26% 17% 35% 95% 0% 12% 37% lighting / policing Quality of public 40% 23% 25% 23% 85% 6% 15% 39% seating Overall appearance of 36% 22% 33% 21% 84% 3% 16% 47% townscape Architectural quality of 33% 19% 29% 20% 77% 3% 11% 52% buildings Shelter from 14% 59% 19% 39% 98% 0% 21% 45% weather Pedestrian & vehicular safety 38% 20% 20% 21% 96% 1% 35% 23% issues Noise and air 21% 20% 20% 21% 96% 1% 35% 23% pollution Cleanliness / availability of 9% 52% 14% 39% 93% 1% 5% 62% public toilets
ASSESSMENT OF THE EASE OF ACCESS TO THE CENTRES (Q26)
1.36 As with the environmental factors, Merry Hill out-performs each of the other three centres for all of the eleven accessibility factors (Table 25), although, unlike the environmental factors, some of the more traditional centres achieve reasonably good levels of satisfaction under certain accessibility factors.
1.37 West Bromwich performs particularly poorly in relation to the two factors concerning car parking (location of, and quality and security). In contrast, West Bromwich performs more strongly with regard to the location of its bus station and bus stops, and quality / security of the bus station, with just under half of respondents surveyed at West Bromwich considering its performance in relation to those factors to be good or better. Concerning both the degree and quality of pedestrianisation, Walsall achieved the highest levels of satisfaction after Merry Hill, with only around a third of respondents in Wolverhampton considering its performance in relation to these factors to be good or better. Fewer than one in five STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
respondents at the three traditional centres considered their accessibility for the mobility impaired to be good or very good, compared to around 70 per cent at Merry Hill.
Table 25 – Assessment of the Ease of Access to the Centres
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich Good Poor or Good Poor or Good Poor or Good Poor or or very very or very very or very very or very very good poor good poor good poor good poor Location of car 32% 21% 24% 22% 89% 0% 21% 13% parks Quality & security 24% 20% 21% 24% 88% 0% 13% 19% of car parks Location of bus station & bus 47% 14% 24% 25% 77% 1% 49% 10% stops Quality & security 36% 16% 22% 28% 71% 0% 45% 9% of bus station Provision for 2% 20% 8% 22% 58% 2% 7% 15% cyclists Degree of 60% 5% 33% 24% 89% 1% 53% 7% pedestrianisation Quality of pedestrianised 54% 10% 37% 19% 91% 0% 41% 15% area Ease of movement around 67% 3% 42% 18% 92% 0% 55% 15% centre on foot Quality and accuracy of 31% 15% 27% 27% 84% 3% 33% 24% directional signage Access for people 12% 23% 15% 29% 70% 3% 11% 28% with disabilities Access for prams 12% 21% 8% 27% 69% 2% 17% 18%
PERCEIVED KEY WEAKNESSES OF THE CENTRE AND ITS FUNCTIONS (Q27)
1.38 Table 26 collates the responses that 5 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the key weakness of the centre and its function. Of note is the fact that 47 per cent (“don’t know”) are unable to nominate the aspect of Merry Hill that they consider to be its key weakness. Wolverhampton also benefits from a relatively high rating in this regard (41 per cent), with West Bromwich faring worst with almost four out of five being able to suggest a key weakness. By far the most popular response with regard to Walsall was its dirty appearance, identified as its key weakness by more than a quarter of respondents. Wolverhampton appears to suffer from a perceived fear of crime, with 12 per cent of respondents believing there to be too many gangs of youths around or a general feeling of being unsafe and 5 per cent citing too much crime as the centre’s key weakness. In West Bromwich, almost one in five believed its dirty appearance to be the principal weakness, with a further 15 per cent believing its poor choice of shops to be its main problem. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 26 – Perceived Key Weaknesses of the Centre and its Functions
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Don’t know 28% Don’t know 41% Don’t know 47% Don’t know 21%
Too many gangs Dirty 27% youths / doesn’t 12% Other 14% Other 20% appearance feel safe Poor public Traffic Dirty 7% Dirty appearance 11% 9% 18% transport congestion appearance Poor car Poor choice of Other 7% Other 9% parking 6% 15% shops facilities No shelter from Poor choice of Poor choice of Poor car parking weather 6% 5% 5% 5% shops shops facilities conditions Poor public 6% Too much crime 5% toilets Poor choice of 6% shops
SUGGESTED IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CENTRE (Q28)
1.39 Table 27 contains the responses that 5 per cent or more of respondents suggested as being the key required improvement for the centre and its function. Over half of respondents at Merry Hill were either unable to suggest an improvement or did not think anything in particular could be improved. All other suggestions at Merry Hill that comprised more than 5 per cent of the response were related to traffic and transport, in particular access to the centre and car parking. Walsall was the only centre with any single suggestion for improvement (cleaner shopping streets) being a more popular response than a combination of ‘no opinion’ or ‘nothing’. A need for cleaner shopping streets was also the single most important improvement identified at Wolverhampton (17 per cent) and West Bromwich (15 per cent). Increasing the range of shops was also considered to be one of the ways by which West Bromwich could be improved, with 13 per cent of respondents believing that the range of high street multiples needed to be improved and a further 7 per cent stating that an improvement in the range of specialist shops was the key measure through which the centre would become more attractive. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
Table 27 – What is the most required improvement for the centre?
Walsall Wolverhampton Merry Hill West Bromwich
Clean shopping No opinion / No opinion / No opinion / 25% 35% 52% 24% streets nothing nothing nothing Clean No opinion / Reduce road Clean shopping 15% shopping 17% 10% 15% nothing congestion streets streets Improve More parking More parking Improve choice 11% policing / 8% 5% 13% spaces spaces of multiple shops security Improve public More parking Improve public Improve policing 5% 6% 5% 7% transport links spaces transport links / security Improve range Other Reduce cost of of specialist / environmental 5% 5% 7% car parking independent factor shops Improve range Improve policing 5% of leisure 5% / security facilities Improve choice 5% of multiple shops Improve pedestrian 5% safety
CONCLUSIONS
1.40 The street survey highlights that:
• Most visitors use buses to access the centres, with the notable exception of Merry Hill where only one in five trips is undertaken by this mode.
• More visits to Merry Hill were anticipated to last for 2 or more hours than any other centre. West Bromwich fared particularly poorly in this regard with just 16 per cent of trips anticipated to last 2 or more hours.
• Few respondents journeyed to any of the centres on a very regular basis (once a week or more) for the purpose of food shopping. At all four centres more than half of all respondents stated that they never, or very rarely, visited to shop for food.
• All four centres recorded remarkably similar results in relation to the frequency individuals visited for non-food shopping. Between 15 and 18 per cent interviewed at all of the centres visited once a week or more to shop for non-food items.
• Relatively few visited Merry Hill on a regular basis to take advantage of any public services, work or education. Wolverhampton had by far the highest incidence of individuals attending once a week or more for educational purposes.
• All four centres experienced a high proportion of people visiting primarily to shop for non-food items. Merry Hill, however, was the only centre where a majority of journeys (61 per cent) were made principally for this reason. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
• Respondents appeared to be more able to state what they liked about Merry Hill than any other centre, with almost a quarter (23 per cent) stating “everything”. In contrast, 26 per cent of people interviewed at Wolverhampton and 29 per cent at West Bromwich claimed to like nothing about their respective centre.
• Similarly, more than half stated that there was nothing they disliked about Merry Hill compared with around a quarter providing the same answer at the other centres. At Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich the poor cleanliness of the streets appeared to be a repeated problem.
• With regard to the range and quality of shops on offer, customer satisfaction is highest at Merry Hill with 89 per cent of respondents professing themselves to be satisfied or very satisfied with the shopping. This compares to 83 per cent in Walsall, 62 per cent in Wolverhampton and just 40 per cent in West Bromwich.
• Merry Hill and West Bromwich have the lowest incidence of individuals visiting in the evening on a regular basis. Moreover, Merry Hill is the only centre where bars and pubs are not the most popular amenities enjoyed in the evening, with late-opening shopping, followed by the cinema being its most popular attractions.
• With regard to the centres’ cultural and family entertainment offer, Wolverhampton performs most strongly. West Bromwich fares particularly poorly with only one in twenty believing it to have satisfactory or very satisfactory facilities.
• More than half of all respondents at the more traditional centres of Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich considered themselves at least satisfied with the centre’s role as a provider of public services. Merry Hill fared least well with 39 per cent giving the same answer.
• In relation to environmental issues, Merry Hill performed exceptionally strongly throughout, with respondents particularly enthusiastic about its cleanliness, street furniture, safety, shelter, pedestrian and road safety, lack of noise and air pollution, and toilet facilities. In each of the categories, Merry Hill comfortably out-performed the other three centres. West Bromwich performed especially poorly in environmental terms, with its cleanliness, general townscape and architecture being the subject of particular criticism.
• Merry Hill was also the most popular centre with regard to its ease of access. Upwards of 70 per cent of respondents considered its car parks, pedestrianised areas, signage and ease of access for the mobility impaired to be good or better. Particular problems identified relate to the quality and location of Wolverhampton’s bus station, and the car parking, provision for cyclists and provision for the mobility impaired at the three traditional centres. Wolverhampton also performed poorly in terms of its pedestrianised area and the ability of visitors to move around on foot.
• Merry Hill had the fewest respondents able to readily identify a key weakness. As noted, of the remaining centres, their dirty appearance was considered problematic in each case. Moreover, there was a relatively high perception of problems with crime and safety in Wolverhampton. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES IN CENTRE SURVEYS
• Over half of respondents were unable to suggest any measure by which Merry Hill could improve as a centre. This compared to just 15 per cent in Walsall. The cleanliness of shopping streets was again mentioned and considered to be the principal way in which the centres of Walsall, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich could improve. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
OBJECTIVES
1.1 To conduct an independent household telephone survey among a representative sample of residents living within the Black Country area. The survey explored the nature of consumer demand and current shopping patterns of residents within the defined overall Black Country Catchment Area and, in consultation with the Steering Group, was structured to determine customer/visitor profile, mode of travel, the attraction of the evening economy, and a number of attitudinal questions determining what users think about the retail and commercial leisure offer within the centre they visit most often.
IMPLEMENTATION
1.2 The survey results underpinned the conclusions of the Study of Black Country Centres feeding into the following key work elements:
Market share/influence of centres identifying levels of trade leakage and challenges in terms of claw back of expenditure;
Review of shopping patterns within the Black Country identifying the current performance of Black Country centres;
Identifying global capacity projections and distribution of capacity through centre options.
SURVEY AREA/METHODOLOGY
1.3 In order to provide detailed factual information on shopping patterns in the Black Country, we commissioned a new household interview survey covering 4,000 households. GVA Grimley designed the survey questionnaire in consultation with the Black Country Steering Group and NEMs – who undertook interviewing and data processing. The overall Black Country catchment area was divided into 54 Zones, comprising a number of postcode sectors, and the survey established the pattern of spending for residents of each zone in terms of the following types of goods:
Main food and groceries;
Top-up shopping for food and groceries;
Clothes and shoes;
Furniture, carpets, soft household furnishings; STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
DIY and decorating goods;
Domestic appliances such as fridge’s, cookers and other electrical goods; and
Specialist non-food items such as china, glass, books, jewellery, photographic goods, musical instruments and sports equipment.
1.4 The results of the two types of food and groceries expenditure (main and top-up) were then merged – through the application of a weight which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by each type – so as to form a composite pattern of convenience spending, expressed as market shares for each destination centre or foodstore, for each survey zone. The weights split as follows:
Main food and groceries = 67%
Top-up food and groceries = 28%
Incidental minor convenience purchases = 5%
1.5 Similarly, we derived composite market shares in the comparison sector through the application of two sets of weights. The first weight reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by the top three spending locations, approximately as follows:
Top spend location = 68%
Second highest spend location = 25%
Third highest spend location = 4%
All other locations = 3%
All comparison expenditure = 100%
1.6 The first procedure allowed for market shares to be calculated for each of the five types of comparison purchases. We then calculated the overall composite comparison market shares through the application of second weight to reflect the proportion of expenditure of each type of goods, approximately as follows: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
Clothes and shoes = 25%
Furniture, carpets, soft household furnishings = 12%
DIY and decorating goods = 6%
Domestic appliances such as fridges, cookers and other electrical goods = 12%
Specialist non-food items such as china, glass, books, jewellery, photographic goods, musical instruments and sports equipment = 45%
1.7 The market shares for each zone were then applied to the pot of available expenditure to the residents of each zone – which was calculated using data on population and per capita spending from Experian – in order to express the patterns of shopping in absolute money terms, and so allow the turnover of each centre or store, the overall retention rate, and the amount of leakage, to be calculated.
OUTPUTS
1.8 The composite pattern of market shares enabled us to map the areas of influence within the 54 Zones of each of the competing centres in the wider catchment area. Plans 7-16 map these areas of influence and highlights the challenge the Black Country faces to retain its pot of comparison goods expenditure. The level of comparison goods trade lost and proportion of total available spend is outlined in Table 7.2 of the Study and discussed further throughout Section 7. Plans 18-21 illustrate the extent of the comparison goods catchment areas of the Black Country centres.
1.9 The key analysis and interpretation of the telephone survey results is incorporated throughout the Study of Black Country Centres, although we outline the headline results below. It is only possible, however, to discuss the study area (Zone 1-54) as a whole, which gives no indication of more localised variations across the study area. Tables 1-5 outlines the total response rate for each comparison goods category to each Black Country centre and other most influential centres.
1.10 It is evident from Table 1 that Birmingham has the highest market share for clothing and other fashion goods, despite being located outside the survey area. Merry Hill is the second most influential centre for this goods category followed by Wolverhampton and Walsall. West Bromwich is considerably weaker, while Dudley’s market share falls below Sutton Coldfield, but above Kidderminster and Cannock. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
Table 1: Clothes, Footwear and other Fashion Goods
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 18.9 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 17.8 Wolverhampton 13.5 Walsall 10.1 West Bromwich 3.2 Sutton Coldfield 2.9 Dudley 2.7 Kidderminster 2.6 Cannock 2.1
1.11 The market share of town centres in the furniture, floor coverings and household textiles category is less influential than for clothing given the competition from out of centre retail warehousing. Birmingham remains the dominant centre, driven by the strong presence of department store operators and quality interior design/furniture shops.
Table 2: Furniture, Floor Coverings and Household Textiles
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 9.2 Wolverhampton 6.8 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 6.6 Walsall 4.8 Cannock 3.0 Dudley 2.1 Kidderminster 1.8 West Bromwich 1.5 Sutton Coldfield 1.0
1.12 The influence of town centres is even more limited in the DIY/decorating supplies goods category, although Birmingham remains the dominant centre, closely followed by Wolverhampton. Most respondents are likely to visit a wide variety of retail warehouse units, with few people undertaking this type of shopping in town centres given the bulky nature of goods. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
Table 3: DIY and Decorating Goods
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 5.8 Wolverhampton 5.5 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 4.5 Cannock 4.0 Walsall 3.4 Kidderminster 2.3 West Bromwich 1.4 Sutton Coldfield 1.4 Dudley 1.3
1.13 Merry Hill is the most dominant centre in terms of shopping for domestic appliances, highlighting its ability to compete more effectively with Birmingham. Wolverhampton’s influence in this category is the same as Birmingham followed by Walsall, while West Bromwich falls below Cannock.
Table 4: Domestic Appliances such as washing machines, fridges, cookers, IT equipment, TVs/DVDs
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Merry Hill Shopping Centre 7.9 Birmingham 7.8 Wolverhampton 7.8 Walsall 4.1 Cannock 3.6 West Bromwich 2.1 Kidderminster 1.9 Dudley 1.7 Sutton Coldfield 1.5
1.14 Due to the ‘high street’ nature of personal/luxury goods Birmingham is again the most dominant centre by 4.6%, largely a consequence of the strong department store offer and range of shops selling these types of goods. Merry Hill is the second most dominant destination followed by Wolverhampton, Walsall and West Bromwich.
Table 5: Personal/luxury goods, including books, jewellery, china, glass, cosmetics, musical instruments
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 16.4 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 11.8 Wolverhampton 10.6 Walsall 7.0 West Bromwich 2.3 Sutton Coldfield 2.3 Dudley 2.2 Cannock 2.2 Kidderminster 2.1 STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
1.15 Respondents were asked how they normally travel when undertaking shopping for non-food goods. The results (Table 6) reflect the dominance of the car and bus.
Table 6: Mode of Travel for Non-Food Shopping
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Car 70.7 Bus 21.8 Walk 3.9 Train 1.7 Other 1.2 Taxi 0.4 Bicycle 0.2 Motorcycle 0.1
1.16 When asked where they go most often to visit the cinema, the highest response from the survey area was the Showcase cinema in Dudley (5.9%), closely followed by the UCI cinema at Merry Hill (5.1%). Cineworld, Bentley Bridge in Wednesfield and the Showcase Cinema in Walsall had the third and fourth highest response rate with 4% and 3.7% respectively.
1.17 Bingo is evidently a less popular activity, with 92.1% of respondents not participating. Those that do play bingo as a leisure activity visit Mecca Bingo, Wednesbury; Mecca Bingo, Oldbury; Gala Bingo, Walsall; and Gala Bingo, Harbourne.
1.18 When asked about ten-pin bowling activities, 83.1% responded that they do not participate in this leisure activity. Those that do, visit Hollywood Bowl in Birmingham (3.3%), Bowlplex in Dudley (2.9%) and Megabowl in Brierley Hill (2.7%).
1.19 The vast number of swimming pool and health and sports clubs throughout the Black Country is reflected in the survey results and no particular destination stands out as being dominant.
1.20 Respondents were asked where they went most often to pubs/nightclubs and restaurants. The headline results are highlighted below in Table 7 and 8. Merry Hill performs poorly in this indicator compared to shopping patterns. Birmingham and Wolverhampton are the most dominant centres in the survey area for evening leisure entertainment activities. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
Table 7: Pubs/Nightclubs
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 10.7 Wolverhampton 5.6 Walsall 3.8 Cannock 2.6 Dudley 2.5 Kidderminster 2.0 Sutton Coldfield 1.5 West Bromwich 0.9 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 0.7
Table 8: Restaurants
CENTRE % FROM SURVEY AREA (ZONE 1-54) Birmingham 14.2 Wolverhampton 8.7 Walsall 4.7 Cannock 3.5 Dudley 3.3 Kidderminster 2.4 Sutton Coldfield 2.0 West Bromwich 1.3 Merry Hill Shopping Centre 1.0
1.21 In terms of theatre/concert halls, there appears to be four dominant destinations including the Crescent Theatre, Broad Street, Birmingham (13.4%); The Grand Theatre, Wolverhampton (11.7%); Hippodrome Theatre, Birmingham (3.7%); and Birmingham NEC (4.1%).
1.22 24.4% of respondents visit Birmingham for cultural activities and services, with a much lower proportion visiting the Black Country centres: Wolverhampton (4.2%), Walsall (3.7%), Dudley (1.7%), Merry Hill (0%) and West Bromwich (0%).
1.23 The headline results of the Household Telephone survey do not highlight localised variations drawn out in the extensive modelling exercise and options testing. They do, however, illustrate the dominance of Birmingham in each town centre function from shopping to leisure and the evening economy. It is evident that Merry Hill performs an entirely ‘shopping’ function with little response for evening entertainment except the cinema. At present, the Black Country centres are failing to compete on the same level, although Wolverhampton is maintaining a reasonably strong market share. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
APPENDIX 3: CAPACITY ANALYSIS STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES CAPACITY ANALYSIS
MARKET SHARE AND SPENDING PATTERNS ESTABLISHED BY THE SURVEYS OF HOUSEHOLDS
1.1 Spreadsheet 1 provides a comprehensive analysis of market shares and spending patterns for each of the 54 zones in the Black Country’s overall catchment area, as established by the year 2004 survey of 4,000 households. Thus, residents of Zone 1 had a total comparison goods expenditure pot in the year 2004 base year of £147.87 million (in year 2002 prices1), of which 3.6 per cent was spent in Harborne, 2.0 per cent in other shops in Zone 1, 0.0 per cent in Perry Bar, 2.5 per cent in Selly Oak and so on.
1.2 These market shares translate into absolute money flows of £5.39 million to Harborne, £2.96 million to other shops in Zone 1, £3.63 million to Selly Oak and so on. When the market shares and comparison goods expenditure flows for the 54 zones are added together, we can identify how much of the overall catchment area expenditure flows to each of the centres and individual stores identified. The total retention of expenditure by all stores and town centres located within the overall Black Country catchment area amounts to £2,931.45 million, which represents an overall retention rate of 67 per cent. The remaining 33 per cent of the comparison goods expenditure of catchment area residents flows to centres outside the catchment such as Birmingham, Sutton Coldfield, Telford and so on.
1.3 The five strategic centres – Merry Hill, Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley – collectively retain 39.1 per cent of the comparison goods expenditure of the residents of the Black Country catchment area. Thus, smaller centres and freestanding stores collectively account for a further 27.7 per cent of the comparison goods expenditure of the residents of the Black Country catchment area, taking the total retention rate to the aforementioned figure of 67 per cent.
1.4 These market shares form the starting point for our subsequent assessment of retail expenditure capacity arising from population change and real growth over time in per capita comparison goods expenditure. We must emphasise, however, that this study focuses on strategies for the strategic centres. The strategies for lower level centres will be dealt with by the local planning authorities, through the LDF process.
THE FIVE SCENARIOS
1.5 The retail capacity analysis is undertaken under five scenarios, as follows:
Scenario 1 uses:
- Mott MacDonald’s baseline population projection for each of the 54 zones in the overall catchment area, under which the aggregate population rises from 1,891,953 in 2004 to 1,894,236 in 2011, but then falls to 1,868,425 in 2021 and then further to 1,827,439 in 2031;
- a comparison goods expenditure growth of 4.1 per cent, per capita, per annum, based on Experian’s ultra long-term trends; and
1 All monetary figures in the main report and in this Appendix C are in year 2002 prices, this being the price base of the Experian expenditure data STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES CAPACITY ANALYSIS
- a constant market share for all centres and stores in the overall catchment area (as revealed by the survey of households) of 67 per cent.
Scenario 2 uses:
- Mott MacDonald’s H1 population projection for each of the 54 zones in the overall catchment area, under which the aggregate population rises from 1,891,953 in 2004, to 2,039,761 by 2021 and to 2,114,155 in 2031. The H1 forecast incorporates RPG housing projections plus 5 per cent and focuses new housing development on the four strategic centres and the corridors between them;
- a growth in per capita expenditure, which enables the overall catchment per capita spend to meet the national average spend by 2031;
- a constant market share for all centres and stores in the overall catchment area (as revealed by the survey of households) of 67 per cent.
Scenario 3 uses:
- Mott MacDonald’s H1 population projection for each of the 54 zones in the overall catchment area;
- a growth in per capita expenditure, which enables the overall catchment per capita spend to meet the national average spend by 2031;
- an uplift in market share for Walsall.
Scenario 4 uses:
- Mott MacDonald’s H1 population projection for each of the 54 zones in the overall catchment area;
- a growth in per capita expenditure, which enables the overall catchment per capita spend to meet the national average spend by 2031;
- an uplift in market share for Walsall and West Bromwich.
Scenario 5 uses:
- Mott MacDonald’s H1 population projection for each of the 54 zones in the overall catchment area;
- a growth in per capita expenditure, which enables the overall catchment per capita spend to meet the national average spend by 2031;
- an uplift in market share for Wolverhampton.
1.6 The population forecasts supplied by Mott Macdonald on a zone by zone basis, are attached to this Appendix. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES CAPACITY ANALYSIS
1.7 The per capita expenditure data for the ‘trend based’ Scenario 1 and the ‘growth’ Scenarios 2 to 5 are also attached to this Appendix. The overall averages for the Black Country catchment area compared to the UK are set out below. Under the trend scenario, the average comparison goods per capita expenditure for the overall Black Country catchment area remains at about 96 per cent of the UK average throughout the period up to 2031. Under the growth scenarios the Black Country catchment area’s per capita expenditure reaches 98 per cent of the UK average by 2021 and it matches the UK average in 2031.
Comparison Goods Per Capita Expenditure (2022 Prices)
Trend Scenario Growth Scenarios
2004 2021 2031 2004 2021 2031
BC UK BC UK BC UK BC UK BC UK BC UK
£2,322 £2,419 £4,598 £4,791 £6,872 £7,159 £2,322 £2,419 £4,676 £4,791 £7,159 £7,159
CALCULATION OF GLOBAL CAPACITY
1.8 Spreadsheets 2 to 6 set out the calculation of global retail capacity or need, for each of the five scenarios, as at 2011, 2021, and 2031. The spreadsheets are structured in the same way, as follows:
the top row gives the total population for the overall Black Country catchment area;
the second row gives the total comparison goods expenditure for all residents of the overall catchment area, having made a deduction of 7.7 per cent for e-tailing and other special forms of trading;
the third row sets out the absolute amount of expenditure which is retained by all centres and stores located within the overall catchment area;
the fourth row gives the consequent expenditure retention percentage;
the fifth row gives the absolute amount of expenditure leakage flowing to stores and town centres outside the overall Black Country catchment area;
the sixth row provides our estimate of the inflow of expenditure to stores and centres located within the overall Black Country catchment area from those who reside outside the Black Country catchment area;
the seventh row sets out the turnover of all comparison stores within the overall catchment area, this being the sum of retained expenditure (row 3) plus inflow (row 6);
the eighth row sets out the initial expenditure surplus, which is the growth in retained expenditure. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES CAPACITY ANALYSIS
1.9 However, not all of the growth in retained expenditure is available for new floorspace. First we have to allow for existing retailers to secure an uplift in their turnover per unit sales area (known as an increase in “floorspace efficiency”). The allowance we have made is 2.5 per cent, per annum. Thus, under Scenario 1, the growth in retained expenditure up to 2031 is £5,665.4 million of which existing retailers absorb £2,992.3 million, leaving a residual for new floorspace of £2,673.1 million. The latter is the final bold entry in the last column of each of the spreadsheets. Thus, the residual expenditure capacity varies from £2,673.1 million under Scenario 1, to £4,369.3 million under Scenario 4.
1.10 The next step is to convert the residual expenditure capacity to a net comparison goods sales area requirement. This is achieved by applying a sales density which equates to £778 per sq.ft in 2021 and rising to £995 per sq.ft in 2031. Thus, having converted to metric the overall global floorspace capacity requirement up to 2031 varies from 249,510 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1 to 407,823 sq.m sales area under Scenario 4. Finally, we make an allowance for A2 and A3 uses and convert the net sales area requirement to a gross floorspace requirement. The latter varies from around 370,000 sq.m up to 2031 under Scenario 1 to 580,000 sq.m up to 2031 under Scenario 2.
1.11 However, a proportion of the identified capacity is already accounted for by major retail commitments, as set out in Table 8.5 of the main report. Moreover, some commentators consider that e-tailing’s share of comparison goods expenditure will grow over time beyond the 7.7 per cent figure we have deducted, thereby further diminishing the need for additional floorspace, as discussed in paragraph 4.6 below.
FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS FOR EACH OF THE FOUR CENTRES
1.12 Spreadsheets 7 to 11 provide estimates of the theoretical floorspace capacity of each of the four strategic centres under each of the five scenarios. The turnover for 2004 column is derived from the findings of the survey of households. This turnover is then projected forward to the years 2021 and 2031 on the basis of constant market shares under Scenarios 1 and 2, but with Walsall getting an uplift in market share under Scenario 3, with Walsall and West Bromwich getting an uplift under Scenario 4 and with Wolverhampton getting an uplift under Scenario 5. We then assess the turnover requirements of existing retailers at 2021 and 2031 by allowing them to secure an increase in floorspace efficiency of 2.5 per cent, per annum. We can then deduct their requirements from the theoretical turnover forecasts so as to identify the theoretical residual floorspace requirement.
1.13 For Merry Hill, the floorspace requirement up to 2021 varies from 41,500sq.m sales area under Scenario 1 to approximately 53,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 2. In the period up to 2031, the capacity varies from 66,000 sq.m sales area under the Scenario 1 trend line forecast, up to approximately 97,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 2.
1.14 For Walsall, the capacity up to 2021 varies from approximately 19,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, to approximately 35,000 sq.m sales area under the four centres scenario. For the period up to 2031, the capacity in Walsall rises to approximately 30,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, rising to 59,000 sq.m sales area under the four centres scenario.
1.15 For West Bromwich, the capacity up to 2021 varies from approximately 7,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, to approximately 38,000 sq.m sales area under the four centres scenario. For the period up to 2031, the capacity in West Bromwich rises to approximately STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES CAPACITY ANALYSIS
12,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, rising to 53,000 sq.m sales area under the four centres scenario.
1.16 For Wolverhampton, the capacity up to 2021 varies from approximately 29,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, to approximately 61,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 5. For the period up to 2031, the capacity in Wolverhampton rises to approximately 45,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 1, rising to 100,000 sq.m sales area under Scenario 5.
Growth in E-tailing Expenditure
1.17 If we assume that the proportion of comparison goods expenditure on electronic forms of e- tailing rises from as estimated 8 per cent in 2004 to 20 per cent in 2021, the residual expenditure available for new floorspace would reduce by approximately £705 million under Scenario 1, and by approximately £781 million under Scenario 4, at an assumed sales density of £8,370 per sq.m sales area, this reduction in residual expenditure would equate to around 84,200 sq.m sales area by the year 2021 under Scenario 1 and by around 93,300 sq.m sales area under Scenario 4.
MARKET SHARES AT 2031
1.18 Spreadsheet 12 provides the resultant market shares for each of the four strategic centres, and also for Dudley, under each of the five scenarios as at 2031. Scenarios 1 and 2 have a constant retention rate for all centres and stores in the overall catchment area of 67 per cent. This overall retention rate rises to 68.3 per cent under Scenario 4 implying that the Black County centres in aggregate gain a slightly bigger share of the overall regional comparison goods expenditure cake.
1.19 So far as the individual centres are concerned, Merry Hill achieves a highest market share under Scenario 1, of 14.2 per cent. For Walsall, Scenario 3 produces the highest market share at 9.4 per cent, followed by Scenario 4 under which Walsall secures a 8.3 per cent share. West Bromwich achieves its highest market share of 5.2 per cent under the favoured Scenario 4 – the four centres strategy – and Wolverhampton achieves its highest market share of 13.0 per cent, under Scenario 5. ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 8 9 Harborne 1 3.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10 Other shops in Zone 1 1 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 12 Perry Barr 2 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 15 Selly Oak 3 2.5% 0.1% 10.6% 8.5% 4.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 5.4% 0.0% 6.2% 2.7% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18 Stirchley 3 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20 21 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22 Northfield 4 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 4.8% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24 25 Bromsgrove 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 8.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 32.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 26 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 27 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28 29 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.3% 1.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 30 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31 32 Halesowen 10 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 17.0% 24.0% 8.7% 4.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35 36 Cradley Heath 11 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 37 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38 39 Bearwood 13 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 7.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 40 Smethwick 13 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 41 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42 43 Blackheath 15 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.3% 2.8% 5.1% 0.0% 1.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44 Oldbury 15 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.6% 5.4% 7.3% 9.6% 22.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 45 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 46 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47 48 West Bromwich 16 2.6% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 13.3% 0.3% 3.7% 0.4% 0.9% 8.6% 22.5% 14.8% 8.8% 49.8% 32.5% 0.9% 0.0% 49 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 50 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 52 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 53 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 55 56 Dudley 19 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 3.9% 6.6% 4.4% 8.0% 0.0% 6.3% 13.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 57 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 58 59 Kidderminster 20 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 60 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62 Other shops in Zone 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63 64 Sedgley 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 65 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66 67 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 68 Tipton 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 69 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70 71 Brierley Hill High Street 24 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 72 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 7.3% 0.9% 5.2% 11.1% 13.4% 2.1% 2.4% 12.3% 36.5% 39.9% 41.8% 37.4% 6.2% 14.6% 22.8% 3.7% 6.3% 0.4% 41.0% 73 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 74 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 75 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76 77 Kingswinford 25 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 78 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80 81 Stourbridge 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.1% 3.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 83 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84 85 Lye 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87 88 Walsall 30 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 15.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 3.4% 15.6% 6.3% 0.0% 89 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 90 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93 94 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96 97 Darlaston 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 98 Wednesbury 32 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 7.3% 0.5% 0.9% 99 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 101 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 102 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103 104 Cannock 33 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 105 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 106 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 107 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 108 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 109 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 110 111 Lichfield 34 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 112 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 113 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 114 115 Bloxwich 35 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 116 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 117 118 Burntwood 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 119 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 120 121 Brownhills 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 122 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 123 Other shops in Zone 40 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 124 125 Aldridge 41 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 126 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 127 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 128 129 Wolverhampton 42 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 4.4% 0.0% 6.2% 130 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 131 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 132 133 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 134 Fallings Park 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 135 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 136 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 137 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 138 139 Ashmore Park 44 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140 Wednesfield 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 141 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 142 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 143 144 Willenhall 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 145 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 146 147 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 148 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 149 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 150 151 Bilston 47 1.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.7% 152 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 153 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 154 155 Bridgenorth 48 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 156 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 157 158 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 159 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 160 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 162 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 163 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 164 165 Compton Village 50 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 166 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 167 168 Warstones Road 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 169 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 170 171 Tettenhill Village 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 172 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 173 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 174 175 Pendeford Park 54 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 176 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 177 178 Sub total for OCA 34.9% 27.5% 34.8% 42.7% 49.3% 16.9% 51.7% 52.1% 81.8% 83.7% 81.1% 77.7% 61.6% 65.0% 82.0% 69.5% 79.7% 16.5% 90.2% 179 180 Other Areas 181 182 Birmingham 0 58.8% 44.9% 43.4% 31.1% 35.6% 26.9% 22.4% 6.8% 12.1% 12.6% 10.4% 14.7% 34.3% 21.6% 12.5% 12.4% 9.3% 27.3% 4.9% 183 Burton upon Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 184 Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 185 Hanley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 186 Hereford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 187 Leamington Spa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 188 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 189 Nuneaton 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 190 Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 6.7% 0.6% 16.6% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 191 Rugby 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 192 Shrewbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 193 Solihull 0 1.5% 0.1% 6.1% 4.6% 0.2% 19.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 194 Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 195 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 196 Sutton Coldfield 0 0.1% 13.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 40.7% 0.0% 197 Tamworth 0 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 198 Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 199 Worcester 0 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 200 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 201 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 202 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 203 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 204 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 205 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 206 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 207 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 208 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 209 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 210 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 211 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 212 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 213 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 214 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 215 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 216 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 217 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 218 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 219 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 220 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 221 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 222 Kings Heath 0 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 223 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 224 Langley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 225 Droitwich 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 226 Abroad 0 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.6% 227 Catalogue 0 1.0% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9% 4.7% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 4.8% 0.5% 8.9% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% 228 E-mail / Internet 0 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 229 Other 0 2.3% 6.3% 4.2% 5.9% 6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 5.0% 2.8% 5.7% 2.3% 8.6% 6.5% 4.2% 2.8% 230 231 Sub total for areas outside OCA 65.1% 72.5% 65.2% 57.3% 50.7% 83.1% 48.3% 47.9% 18.2% 16.3% 18.9% 22.3% 38.4% 35.0% 18.0% 30.5% 20.3% 83.5% 9.8% 232 233 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 234 235 PATTERN OF COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 236 237 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 238 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 239 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 240 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 241 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 242 243 244 Harborne 1 5.39 0.00 0.69 0.24 2.98 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 245 Other shops in Zone 1 1 2.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 246 247 Perry Barr 2 0.00 10.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 248 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.00 5.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 249 250 Selly Oak 3 3.63 0.33 16.14 13.63 3.49 7.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 251 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 7.96 0.00 9.35 4.38 1.88 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 252 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 1.19 0.00 1.03 0.25 0.16 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 253 Stirchley 3 0.00 0.00 2.98 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.00 0.00 3.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 255 256 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.32 0.00 0.06 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 257 Northfield 4 0.00 0.00 4.17 7.71 2.09 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 258 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 259 260 Bromsgrove 8 0.00 0.00 0.92 13.36 0.85 0.87 0.00 38.61 0.52 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 261 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.00 262 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 263 264 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.67 0.00 0.54 0.62 1.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 1.15 0.32 1.02 0.07 0.47 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.14 265 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 266 267 Halesowen 10 1.00 0.00 0.27 1.90 3.38 0.00 0.00 1.60 11.48 20.45 2.65 1.47 0.07 1.32 0.12 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 268 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 1.72 0.00 0.79 0.51 1.59 0.00 0.69 0.00 1.02 1.01 0.25 0.24 0.00 1.01 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 269 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 271 Cradley Heath 11 0.00 2.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 272 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 273 274 Bearwood 13 3.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 3.17 4.57 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 275 Smethwick 13 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 276 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 277 278 Blackheath 15 0.00 2.47 0.00 0.45 1.27 0.15 0.00 0.00 3.70 0.27 0.87 1.88 0.00 1.70 2.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 279 Oldbury 15 0.39 0.48 0.60 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.48 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.18 2.02 3.13 10.85 12.80 0.42 0.29 0.00 0.00 280 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.39 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.43 1.34 0.94 0.21 0.10 0.00 0.34 281 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 282 283 West Bromwich 16 3.86 10.76 0.66 0.00 0.36 0.00 7.88 0.35 2.51 0.32 0.28 3.18 9.60 16.78 4.98 27.28 15.84 1.15 0.00 284 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 0.14 2.40 0.33 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.48 0.77 0.19 0.00 285 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 286 287 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 1.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.00 288 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 289 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 290 291 Dudley 19 0.40 3.58 0.57 0.39 1.65 0.85 0.33 1.44 2.65 5.61 1.34 2.97 0.00 7.17 7.57 0.47 0.00 0.00 14.30 292 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 293 294 Kidderminster 20 0.58 0.00 0.24 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.43 1.21 0.19 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 295 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 0.07 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 296 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 297 Other shops in Zone 20 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 298 299 Sedgley 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 300 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 301 302 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.43 0.00 0.56 1.32 0.00 0.00 303 Tipton 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 304 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 305 306 Brierley Hill High Street 24 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.50 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 307 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 10.79 2.43 7.88 17.90 10.06 1.97 1.42 14.69 24.63 33.95 12.79 13.89 2.64 16.58 12.85 2.02 3.06 0.47 22.35 308 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 309 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 310 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 311 312 Kingswinford 25 0.00 1.11 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 313 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 314 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 315 316 Stourbridge 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 1.83 0.91 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 317 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 318 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 319 320 Lye 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 321 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 322 323 Walsall 30 0.20 13.26 0.24 0.19 0.54 0.25 8.88 0.28 0.82 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.67 0.00 1.86 7.60 7.93 0.00 324 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.62 0.00 325 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 326 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 327 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 328 329 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 330 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 331 332 Darlaston 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.23 333 Wednesbury 32 0.52 1.95 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.25 2.36 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.18 0.00 0.36 0.78 0.30 0.72 3.53 0.62 0.49 334 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.27 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 1.56 0.06 0.00 335 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.00 2.10 0.33 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 1.25 1.00 0.06 0.05 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 336 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06 0.00 337 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 338 339 Cannock 33 0.00 0.43 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.00 340 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 341 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 342 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 343 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 344 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 345 346 Lichfield 34 0.00 2.34 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.66 0.00 347 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 348 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 349 350 Bloxwich 35 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 351 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 352 353 Burntwood 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 354 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 355 356 Brownhills 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 357 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 358 Other shops in Zone 40 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 359 360 Aldridge 41 0.00 1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.77 0.16 0.00 1.19 0.00 361 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 362 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 363 364 Wolverhampton 42 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.35 0.00 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.18 0.00 0.00 1.22 1.06 1.00 2.15 0.00 3.37 365 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 366 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 367 368 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 369 Fallings Park 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 370 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 371 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 372 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 373 374 Ashmore Park 44 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 375 Wednesfield 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.07 0.26 0.00 0.00 376 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 377 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 378 379 Willenhall 45 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 380 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 381 382 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 383 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 384 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 385 386 Bilston 47 2.73 0.43 0.66 0.15 0.55 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.20 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.94 387 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 388 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 389 390 Bridgenorth 48 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 391 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 392 393 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.19 1.72 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 394 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 395 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 396 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 397 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 398 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 399 400 Compton Village 50 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.05 0.26 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 401 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 402 403 Warstones Road 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 404 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 405 406 Tettenhill Village 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 407 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 408 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 409 410 Pendeford Park 54 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 411 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 412 413 Sub total for OCA 51.54 73.50 52.71 68.71 36.97 15.77 30.59 62.03 55.17 71.24 24.78 28.84 26.28 73.60 46.34 38.10 38.82 20.63 49.20 414 415 Other Areas 416 417 Birmingham 0 86.98 119.90 65.78 50.12 26.68 25.12 13.23 8.11 8.15 10.74 3.19 5.46 14.61 24.45 7.07 6.78 4.54 34.15 2.67 418 Burton upon Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 419 Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 420 Hanley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 421 Hereford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 422 Leamington Spa 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 423 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 424 Nuneaton 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 425 Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 5.09 10.82 0.46 15.50 0.00 23.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 426 Rugby 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 427 Shrewbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 428 Solihull 0 2.26 0.35 9.26 7.41 0.17 17.74 0.00 1.95 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.37 0.00 429 Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTU 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Zone 13 Zone 14 Zone 15 Zone 16 Zone 17 Zone 18 Zone 19 B20, B21, B42, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode B16, B17, B18 B44 B29, B30 B31, B45 B32 B38, B47, B48 B43 B60, B61 B62 B63 B64 B65 B66 B67, B68 B69 B70 B71 B73, B74 DY1 5 Population 2004 63,591 125,755 69,689 74,000 32,267 35,173 27,845 44,886 26,446 33,373 14,385 18,275 20,594 54,683 27,828 27,002 23,981 45,989 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,325 2,125 2,176 2,176 2,325 2,654 2,125 2,654 2,551 2,551 2,124 2,030 2,070 2,070 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,718 2,124 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 430 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 431 Sutton Coldfield 0 0.20 37.13 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 9.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.34 0.43 0.00 0.16 0.35 50.94 0.00 432 Tamworth 0 0.00 3.24 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.20 0.00 433 Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 434 Worcester 0 1.11 0.00 1.45 4.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.70 0.70 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 435 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 436 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.07 1.19 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 437 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 438 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 439 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 440 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.42 2.10 0.66 0.25 0.41 0.13 0.48 0.52 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.00 441 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 442 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 443 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 444 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 445 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 446 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.14 0.34 0.12 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.00 447 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 448 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.00 1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 449 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 450 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 451 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.30 0.00 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 452 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.63 1.42 1.37 0.00 4.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.81 0.00 453 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 454 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.00 455 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 456 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 457 Kings Heath 0 0.00 0.00 1.84 0.39 0.00 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 458 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.00 1.54 0.48 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 459 Langley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 460 Droitwich 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 461 Abroad 0 0.00 0.37 0.27 0.00 0.25 0.18 0.00 0.80 0.30 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.85 0.31 462 Catalogue 0 1.50 8.13 4.20 3.07 3.56 1.67 1.19 3.61 1.35 1.08 0.90 0.47 0.19 5.47 0.30 4.87 1.55 2.91 0.70 463 E-mail / Internet 0 0.20 0.48 0.27 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.00 464 Other 0 3.46 16.71 6.40 9.53 5.12 8.01 3.94 3.32 1.36 1.57 0.77 1.87 1.21 6.41 1.32 4.71 3.16 5.19 1.53 465 466 Sub total for areas outside OCA 96.33 193.76 98.95 92.33 38.06 77.59 28.59 57.11 12.31 13.90 5.78 8.27 16.36 39.61 10.16 16.72 9.87 104.38 5.33 467 468 TOTAL 147.87 267.26 151.66 161.04 75.03 93.36 59.18 119.14 67.47 85.14 30.56 37.10 42.64 113.21 56.50 54.82 48.69 125.02 54.54 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 8 9 Harborne 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10 Other shops in Zone 1 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 12 Perry Barr 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 15 Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18 Stirchley 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20 21 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22 Northfield 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24 25 Bromsgrove 8 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28 29 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31 32 Halesowen 10 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 34 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35 36 Cradley Heath 11 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38 39 Bearwood 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40 Smethwick 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42 43 Blackheath 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 44 Oldbury 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47 48 West Bromwich 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.5% 2.6% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 49 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 50 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 52 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 54 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 55 56 Dudley 19 3.0% 28.8% 15.4% 10.8% 9.5% 8.0% 0.3% 1.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58 59 Kidderminster 20 53.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 19.2% 3.9% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62 Other shops in Zone 20 20 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63 64 Sedgley 22 0.0% 0.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66 67 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 68 Tipton 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70 71 Brierley Hill High Street 24 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 4.4% 2.5% 3.4% 1.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 72 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 16.7% 55.6% 30.0% 22.2% 62.4% 50.9% 43.8% 52.1% 40.0% 3.2% 0.4% 1.4% 5.3% 1.1% 0.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.0% 73 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76 77 Kingswinford 25 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 78 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80 81 Stourbridge 27 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 1.4% 4.2% 12.0% 22.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 83 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84 85 Lye 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87 88 Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.5% 54.6% 29.8% 9.3% 0.5% 51.1% 39.3% 40.4% 20.1% 10.8% 89 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 90 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93 94 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 95 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96 97 Darlaston 32 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98 Wednesbury 32 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 3.0% 17.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 9.1% 8.6% 0.9% 0.4% 99 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 100 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.6% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 101 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 102 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103 104 Cannock 33 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 17.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.4% 45.7% 1.7% 8.1% 0.8% 0.0% 34.8% 19.7% 105 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 8.2% 1.1% 106 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 1.0% 107 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 108 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 109 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 110 111 Lichfield 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 38.9% 0.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.8% 22.1% 112 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 113 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 114 115 Bloxwich 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 3.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 116 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 117 118 Burntwood 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 119 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 120 121 Brownhills 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 122 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 123 Other shops in Zone 40 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 124 125 Aldridge 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 126 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 127 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 128 129 Wolverhampton 42 0.4% 0.5% 24.4% 9.9% 0.9% 6.4% 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 21.5% 2.3% 8.2% 7.4% 5.6% 0.0% 10.8% 1.1% 2.6% 4.2% 2.0% 130 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 131 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 132 133 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 134 Fallings Park 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 135 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 136 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 137 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 138 139 Ashmore Park 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140 Wednesfield 44 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 141 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 142 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 143 144 Willenhall 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 145 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 146 147 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 148 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 149 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 150 151 Bilston 47 0.1% 0.0% 3.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 152 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 153 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 154 155 Bridgenorth 48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 156 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 157 158 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 159 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 160 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 162 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 163 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 164 165 Compton Village 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 166 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 167 168 Warstones Road 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 169 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 170 171 Tettenhill Village 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 172 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 173 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 174 175 Pendeford Park 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 176 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 177 178 Sub total for OCA 83.3% 92.6% 92.5% 87.4% 84.8% 87.3% 83.7% 89.5% 82.4% 57.5% 81.5% 83.8% 90.0% 75.4% 49.6% 88.6% 72.5% 66.4% 84.9% 65.7% 179 180 Other Areas 181 182 Birmingham 0 4.5% 2.5% 4.5% 6.4% 4.1% 4.3% 2.3% 5.1% 6.6% 1.7% 14.7% 9.1% 5.4% 5.1% 17.4% 4.9% 13.6% 19.5% 3.2% 8.3% 183 Burton upon Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 184 Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 185 Hanley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 186 Hereford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 187 Leamington Spa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 188 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 189 Nuneaton 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 190 Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 191 Rugby 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 192 Shrewbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 193 Solihull 0 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 194 Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 195 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 196 Sutton Coldfield 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 9.0% 0.6% 1.0% 7.1% 1.2% 4.8% 197 Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 7.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 4.7% 198 Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% 199 Worcester 0 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 200 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 201 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 202 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 203 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 204 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 205 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 206 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 207 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 208 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 209 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 210 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 211 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 212 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 213 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 214 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 215 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 216 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 217 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 218 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 219 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 220 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 221 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 222 Kings Heath 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 223 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 224 Langley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 225 Droitwich 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 226 Abroad 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 227 Catalogue 0 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 2.4% 5.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 2.7% 6.7% 0.0% 2.0% 3.9% 228 E-mail / Internet 0 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 229 Other 0 3.3% 4.0% 2.5% 2.2% 1.7% 2.3% 9.3% 2.0% 3.9% 8.1% 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 4.2% 4.6% 5.4% 1.4% 230 231 Sub total for areas outside OCA 16.7% 7.4% 7.5% 12.6% 15.2% 12.7% 16.3% 10.5% 17.6% 42.5% 18.5% 16.2% 10.0% 24.6% 50.4% 11.4% 27.5% 33.6% 15.1% 34.3% 232 233 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 234 235 PATTERN OF COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 236 237 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 238 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 239 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 240 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 241 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 242 243 244 Harborne 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 245 Other shops in Zone 1 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 246 247 Perry Barr 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00 248 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 249 250 Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 251 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 252 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 253 Stirchley 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 255 256 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 257 Northfield 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 258 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 259 260 Bromsgrove 8 0.21 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 261 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 262 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 263 264 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.39 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 265 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 266 267 Halesowen 10 0.00 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 268 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 269 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 271 Cradley Heath 11 0.69 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 272 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 273 274 Bearwood 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 275 Smethwick 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 276 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 277 278 Blackheath 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.00 0.00 279 Oldbury 15 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 280 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 281 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 282 283 West Bromwich 16 0.00 0.00 0.87 8.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.16 1.18 0.00 6.81 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.12 1.81 0.00 0.00 284 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.37 0.08 0.35 0.06 0.17 0.00 0.13 285 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 286 287 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 288 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.00 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 289 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 290 291 Dudley 19 5.31 20.86 14.20 8.92 10.16 5.76 0.07 1.57 3.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.16 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 292 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 293 294 Kidderminster 20 95.60 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.22 0.31 4.55 4.28 2.44 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 295 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 3.15 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.32 0.00 0.22 0.22 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 296 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 7.46 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 297 Other shops in Zone 20 20 3.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 298 299 Sedgley 22 0.00 0.47 5.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 300 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.00 0.00 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 301 302 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 303 Tipton 23 0.00 0.00 0.76 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 304 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 305 306 Brierley Hill High Street 24 0.32 0.53 0.77 0.45 4.77 1.83 0.81 1.85 2.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 307 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 29.92 40.27 27.62 18.27 66.94 36.51 10.39 57.76 29.71 1.07 0.20 1.02 5.01 1.94 0.62 2.74 0.81 1.03 1.05 0.63 308 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.14 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 309 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.92 0.19 0.00 0.21 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 310 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 311 312 Kingswinford 25 0.77 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.07 6.98 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 313 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.51 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 314 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 315 316 Stourbridge 27 0.26 0.06 0.86 0.00 1.46 3.00 2.86 24.84 10.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 317 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.55 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 318 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 319 320 Lye 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 321 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 322 323 Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.43 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.58 38.43 28.29 16.18 0.62 58.40 15.32 15.80 8.71 6.66 324 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.00 325 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 326 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 327 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 328 329 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.25 0.00 0.24 0.39 330 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 331 332 Darlaston 32 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 2.71 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 333 Wednesbury 32 0.19 0.81 0.28 6.23 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.07 0.28 2.13 16.78 1.87 0.94 0.64 3.55 3.36 0.40 0.24 334 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.58 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.52 0.05 0.06 0.00 335 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.80 0.42 5.83 0.00 0.00 1.76 0.37 0.32 0.00 0.00 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 336 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 337 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 338 339 Cannock 33 0.00 0.19 0.20 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 5.89 0.96 0.00 0.37 79.66 2.11 9.26 0.31 0.00 15.07 12.18 340 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.90 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.54 3.56 0.65 341 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.58 0.27 1.11 0.00 0.00 3.07 0.62 342 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.29 343 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 344 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 345 346 Lichfield 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.15 0.30 0.00 1.49 48.80 0.71 1.60 0.20 0.33 13.66 347 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 348 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 349 350 Bloxwich 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.68 0.00 0.31 0.34 3.92 0.45 0.00 0.06 0.00 351 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 352 353 Burntwood 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 354 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 355 356 Brownhills 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.19 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 357 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 358 Other shops in Zone 40 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 359 360 Aldridge 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.12 3.11 0.10 0.00 0.15 361 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 362 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 363 364 Wolverhampton 42 0.79 0.39 22.50 8.12 0.96 4.57 0.51 2.27 0.40 7.17 1.05 5.75 7.00 9.81 0.00 12.33 0.41 1.01 1.81 1.25 365 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 366 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 367 368 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.55 0.49 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.16 0.53 369 Fallings Park 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 370 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 371 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 372 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 373 374 Ashmore Park 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 375 Wednesfield 44 0.00 0.85 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.73 1.49 0.51 0.35 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 376 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.23 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.04 377 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 378 379 Willenhall 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 0.69 0.12 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 380 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 381 382 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.00 0.30 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.31 0.45 2.05 0.31 0.00 0.46 0.00 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 383 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 384 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 385 386 Bilston 47 0.20 0.00 2.75 3.58 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.56 2.34 0.19 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 387 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.00 0.06 3.29 0.90 0.07 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 388 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 389 390 Bridgenorth 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 391 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 392 393 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 394 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 395 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 396 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 397 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 2.21 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 398 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 399 400 Compton Village 50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 401 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 402 403 Warstones Road 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 404 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 405 406 Tettenhill Village 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 407 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 408 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 409 410 Pendeford Park 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 411 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 412 413 Sub total for OCA 148.91 67.06 85.29 71.95 91.00 62.66 19.86 99.13 61.13 19.19 36.67 58.93 85.39 131.47 62.22 101.29 28.28 25.98 36.80 40.56 414 415 Other Areas 416 417 Birmingham 0 8.10 1.78 4.15 5.24 4.38 3.07 0.54 5.62 4.93 0.57 6.62 6.40 5.08 8.95 21.87 5.63 5.31 7.64 1.37 5.13 418 Burton upon Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 9.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 419 Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 420 Hanley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 421 Hereford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 422 Leamington Spa 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 423 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 424 Nuneaton 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 425 Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 426 Rugby 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 427 Shrewbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 428 Solihull 0 2.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.00 0.16 429 Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 7.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.36 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.63 0.16 ABVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 20 Zone 21 Zone 22 Zone 23 Zone 24 Zone 25 Zone 26 Zone 27 Zone 28 Zone 29 Zone 30 Zone 31 Zone 32 Zone 33 Zone 34 Zone 35 Zone 36 Zone 37 Zone 38 Zone 39 WS11, WS13, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode DY10, DY11 DY2 DY3 DY4 DY5 DY6 DY7 DY8 DY9 ST19 WS1 WS2 WS10 WS12 WS14 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 5 Population 2004 66,561 34,102 37,340 38,736 43,433 29,062 8,835 43,425 29,091 12,521 21,998 34,380 46,357 72,554 46,135 49,879 17,019 19,133 18,901 25,674 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,684 2,124 2,469 2,124 2,469 2,469 2,684 2,551 2,551 2,667 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,403 2,718 2,292 2,292 2,046 2,292 2,403 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 430 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 0.00 0.30 0.00 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.59 431 Sutton Coldfield 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.60 0.12 1.05 11.27 0.64 0.39 2.79 0.51 2.97 432 Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 9.91 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.33 2.87 433 Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 3.90 2.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.23 0.00 0.00 6.19 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.18 1.91 434 Worcester 0 11.20 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.38 0.29 1.89 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 435 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 436 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 437 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 438 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 439 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 440 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 441 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 442 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 443 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 444 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 445 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 446 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.04 447 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 448 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 449 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 450 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 451 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 452 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 453 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 454 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 455 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 456 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 457 Kings Heath 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 458 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 459 Langley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 460 Droitwich 0 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 461 Abroad 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.31 0.91 0.54 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.10 0.00 462 Catalogue 0 1.90 0.71 0.28 1.99 5.80 0.95 0.29 1.59 1.53 0.57 0.52 2.17 2.65 4.05 2.36 3.09 2.63 0.00 0.89 2.43 463 E-mail / Internet 0 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 464 Other 0 5.84 2.89 2.31 1.80 1.86 1.67 2.22 2.27 2.87 2.71 0.45 1.44 1.46 4.37 3.22 2.28 1.63 1.79 2.32 0.86 465 466 Sub total for areas outside OCA 29.76 5.38 6.92 10.33 16.25 9.10 3.86 11.66 13.09 14.21 8.35 11.42 9.47 42.90 63.19 13.05 10.74 13.17 6.53 21.15 467 468 TOTAL 178.67 72.44 92.20 82.29 107.25 71.76 23.72 110.79 74.22 33.40 45.01 70.35 94.86 174.37 125.41 114.34 39.01 39.15 43.33 61.70 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 8 9 Harborne 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10 Other shops in Zone 1 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 12 Perry Barr 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 15 Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18 Stirchley 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20 21 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 22 Northfield 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24 25 Bromsgrove 8 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28 29 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31 32 Halesowen 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 33 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35 36 Cradley Heath 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38 39 Bearwood 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40 Smethwick 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42 43 Blackheath 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44 Oldbury 15 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47 48 West Bromwich 16 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 52 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 55 56 Dudley 19 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.3% 57 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58 59 Kidderminster 20 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 60 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62 Other shops in Zone 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63 64 Sedgley 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 65 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66 67 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68 Tipton 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70 71 Brierley Hill High Street 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 72 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 3.1% 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 5.5% 4.0% 0.6% 14.9% 7.4% 3.9% 15.0% 7.9% 24.4% 3.0% 2.5% 73 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76 77 Kingswinford 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 78 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 79 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80 81 Stourbridge 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 82 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 83 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84 85 Lye 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87 88 Walsall 30 28.6% 36.1% 0.6% 1.1% 3.6% 34.9% 16.8% 1.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 89 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 90 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93 94 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96 97 Darlaston 32 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 98 Wednesbury 32 3.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 100 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 101 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 102 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103 104 Cannock 33 14.7% 1.7% 0.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 105 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 106 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 4.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 107 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 108 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 109 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 110 111 Lichfield 34 1.6% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 112 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 113 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 114 115 Bloxwich 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 116 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 117 118 Burntwood 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 119 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 120 121 Brownhills 40 6.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 122 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 123 Other shops in Zone 40 40 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 124 125 Aldridge 41 0.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 126 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 1.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 127 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 128 129 Wolverhampton 42 4.4% 0.0% 58.1% 56.2% 52.0% 19.2% 32.2% 37.7% 9.1% 55.7% 56.6% 60.9% 37.3% 53.2% 57.0% 130 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 131 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 132 133 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 134 Fallings Park 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 135 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 136 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 137 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 138 139 Ashmore Park 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140 Wednesfield 44 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 141 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 142 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 143 144 Willenhall 45 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 1.1% 5.8% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 145 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 146 147 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 2.8% 0.4% 5.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 148 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 149 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 150 151 Bilston 47 0.0% 0.4% 8.1% 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.7% 10.9% 0.0% 3.1% 0.9% 2.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.6% 152 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0% 2.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 153 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 154 155 Bridgenorth 48 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 156 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 157 158 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 159 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 160 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 161 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 162 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.7% 1.6% 2.9% 0.0% 4.2% 6.8% 5.1% 3.7% 1.3% 2.3% 163 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 164 165 Compton Village 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 166 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 167 168 Warstones Road 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 169 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 170 171 Tettenhill Village 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 172 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 173 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 174 175 Pendeford Park 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 176 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 177 178 Sub total for OCA 77.9% 67.0% 77.1% 83.5% 87.0% 87.1% 79.2% 88.9% 42.1% 83.1% 88.5% 89.6% 90.5% 62.7% 71.1% 179 180 Other Areas 181 182 Birmingham 0 9.5% 11.6% 11.2% 3.1% 1.9% 4.5% 5.7% 6.7% 1.6% 3.5% 5.6% 4.3% 4.9% 3.1% 1.7% 183 Burton upon Trent 0 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 184 Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 185 Hanley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 186 Hereford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 187 Leamington Spa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 188 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 189 Nuneaton 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 190 Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 191 Rugby 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 192 Shrewbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% 3.9% 1.4% 193 Solihull 0 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 194 Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 195 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 196 Sutton Coldfield 0 2.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 197 Tamworth 0 4.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 198 Telford 0 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 2.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 37.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 11.7% 14.8% 199 Worcester 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 200 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 201 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 202 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 203 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 204 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 205 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 206 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 207 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 208 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 209 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 210 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 211 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 212 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 213 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 214 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 215 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 216 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 217 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 218 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 219 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 220 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 221 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 222 Kings Heath 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 223 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 224 Langley 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 225 Droitwich 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 226 Abroad 0 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 227 Catalogue 0 2.5% 4.1% 9.2% 1.4% 2.5% 4.1% 5.9% 1.4% 2.4% 3.0% 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 6.9% 0.8% 228 E-mail / Internet 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 229 Other 0 2.8% 3.3% 1.5% 4.9% 2.9% 2.1% 4.2% 2.7% 4.8% 8.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.5% 6.4% 5.3% 230 231 Sub total for areas outside OCA 22.1% 33.0% 22.9% 16.5% 13.0% 12.9% 20.8% 11.1% 57.9% 16.9% 11.5% 10.4% 9.5% 37.3% 28.9% 232 233 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 234 235 PATTERN OF COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 236 237 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 Subtotal Beyond Turnover WV15, WV7, WV8, 238 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 239 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 240 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 0 241 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4384.29 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 242 243 244 Harborne 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.69 2.91 12.60 245 Other shops in Zone 1 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.96 0.00 2.96 246 247 Perry Barr 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.64 5.13 19.77 248 Other shops in Zone 2 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.35 0.00 5.35 249 250 Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 46.22 13.87 60.09 251 Battery Retail Park, Chapel Lane, Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.01 7.20 31.21 252 B&Q, Selly Oak 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.67 3.37 253 Stirchley 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0.77 3.85 254 Other shops in Zone 3 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.03 0.00 3.03 255 256 Focus, Parsonage Drive, Rednal, Longbridge 4 0.05 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.05 0.99 257 Northfield 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.72 0.79 16.51 258 Other shops in Zone 4 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.22 0.00 3.22 259 260 Bromsgrove 8 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 59.24 5.92 65.17 261 Bromsgrove Retail Park, Birmingham Road, Bromsgrove 8 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.72 0.27 2.99 262 Other shops in Zone 8 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 0.00 2.38 263 264 B&Q Warehouse, Mucklow Hill, Halesowen 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.22 0.00 11.22 265 Other shops in Zone 9 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.00 1.35 266 267 Halesowen 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 50.26 0.00 50.26 268 Comet, Dudley Road, Halesowen 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.09 0.00 11.09 269 Other shops in Zone 10 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 1.70 270 271 Cradley Heath 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.68 0.00 6.68 272 Other shops in Zone 11 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.61 273 274 Bearwood 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.40 1.24 13.64 275 Smethwick 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.82 0.28 3.10 276 Other shops in Zone 13 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.00 0.85 277 278 Blackheath 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.13 0.00 17.13 279 Oldbury 15 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.36 0.00 37.36 280 Oldbury Green Retail Park, Bromsford Road, Oldbury 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.96 0.00 5.96 281 Other shops in Zone 15 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.00 1.13 282 283 West Bromwich 16 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.14 2.06 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 131.24 10.50 141.74 284 B&Q Supercentre, New Street, West Bromwich Ringway, West Bromwich 16 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.80 0.62 8.43 285 Other shops in Zone 16 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10 286 287 Homebase, Chester Road, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 1.51 5.28 288 Princess Alice Retail Park, New Oscott, Sutton Coldfield 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.16 0.46 1.63 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 289 Other shops in Zone 18 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 290 291 Dudley 19 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 7.06 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.61 1.78 0.00 0.24 135.16 6.76 141.92 292 Other shops in Zone 19 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.00 1.09 293 294 Kidderminster 20 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 1.35 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 117.08 5.85 122.93 295 B&Q Warehouse, Green Street, Kidderminster 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.34 0.22 4.56 296 Crossley Park Retail Park, Kidderminster 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.85 0.44 9.29 297 Other shops in Zone 20 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.57 0.00 3.57 298 299 Sedgley 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.40 0.42 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 9.37 0.00 9.37 300 Other shops in Zone 22 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.84 0.00 1.84 301 302 Great Bridge Retail Park, Sandwell, West Bromwich 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.51 0.00 4.51 303 Tipton 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 0.00 3.77 304 Other shops in Zone 23 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.65 0.00 1.65 305 306 Brierley Hill High Street 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.41 0.00 0.00 19.70 0.00 19.70 307 Merry Hill (Shopping Centre) 24 0.94 0.55 0.56 0.72 4.85 2.02 0.25 13.40 3.11 1.53 9.62 4.89 6.92 3.55 2.06 600.84 90.13 690.97 308 B&Q Supercentre, Pedmore Road, Brierley Hill 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 0.00 2.12 309 Oak Park, Brierley Hill, Dudley 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.44 0.00 4.44 310 Other shops in Zone 24 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.15 0.00 2.15 311 312 Kingswinford 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.24 11.56 0.00 11.56 313 Focus, Kingswinford 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.81 314 Other shops in Zone 25 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 0.00 1.44 315 316 Stourbridge 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 49.13 0.00 49.13 317 B&Q Supercentre, New Road, Stourbridge 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 2.43 0.00 2.43 318 Other shops in Zone 27 27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.22 0.00 2.22 319 320 Lye 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 321 Other shops in Zone 28 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.48 0.00 1.48 322 323 Walsall 30 8.67 28.68 0.16 1.07 3.21 17.84 6.66 0.90 0.00 1.43 0.50 0.76 0.15 0.00 0.00 333.09 16.65 349.74 324 Broadwalk Retail Park, Bescot Crescent, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 3.16 0.00 3.16 325 Crown Wharf Shopping Park, Wolverhampton Street, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 1.60 326 Jerome Retail Park, Midland Road, Walsall 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 327 Other shops in Zone 30 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.90 328 329 Reedswood Retail Park, Reedswood Way, Walsall 31 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.35 0.00 5.35 330 Other shops in Zone 31 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 0.00 1.41 331 332 Darlaston 32 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.67 0.55 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.32 0.00 9.49 0.00 9.49 333 Wednesbury 32 1.09 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.37 1.13 0.25 0.47 0.13 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.78 0.00 54.78 334 B&Q Warehouse, Axletree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.05 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.49 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 9.77 0.49 10.26 335 Gallagher Retail Park, Axeltree Way, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.54 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.80 1.14 23.95 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 336 Ikea, Wednesbury 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.12 0.75 337 Other shops in Zone 32 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 0.00 1.90 338 339 Cannock 33 4.45 1.34 0.00 5.06 1.50 0.39 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.51 141.94 0.00 141.94 340 Linkway Retail Park, Longford Island, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 12.38 0.00 12.38 341 Orbital Retail Centre, Voyager Drive Cannock 33 1.33 3.31 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.48 0.00 14.48 342 Phoenix Retail Park, Cannock 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.67 0.00 3.67 343 Wyrley Brook Retail Park, Vine Lane, Watling Street, Cannock 33 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.86 0.00 1.86 344 Other shops in Zone 33 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.49 0.00 3.49 345 346 Lichfield 34 0.48 2.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.09 11.41 87.51 347 Focus, Church Street, Lichfield 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.00 1.61 348 Other shops in Zone 34 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.51 0.00 2.51 349 350 Bloxwich 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.75 0.00 6.75 351 Other shops in Zone 35 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.29 0.00 2.29 352 353 Burntwood 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00 2.68 354 Other shops in Zone 39 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 0.00 1.23 355 356 Brownhills 40 1.99 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.39 0.00 6.39 357 Focus, Brownhills, Ferrie Grove Brownhills, Walsall 40 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.11 358 Other shops in Zone 40 40 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.61 359 360 Aldridge 41 0.27 7.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 17.40 0.00 17.40 361 Focus, Coppice Lane, Aldridge, Walsall 41 0.29 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 0.00 3.90 362 Other shops in Zone 41 41 0.00 1.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 0.00 1.59 363 364 Wolverhampton 42 1.32 0.00 16.66 54.42 45.85 9.78 12.76 33.85 3.83 21.92 36.21 37.88 10.58 62.48 46.93 495.42 39.63 535.06 365 Peel Retail Centre, Stafford Street, Wolverhampton 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.27 0.00 1.27 366 Other shops in Zone 42 42 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.57 367 368 Cannock Road (Scotlands) 43 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.70 0.25 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.21 6.87 0.00 6.87 369 Fallings Park 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.00 0.61 370 Stafford Road (Three Tuns) 43 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.21 0.00 2.21 371 Focus, West Street, off Stafford Road, Wolverhampton 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.81 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.66 0.52 4.26 0.00 4.26 372 Other shops in Zone 43 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 0.00 1.94 373 374 Ashmore Park 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.84 375 Wednesfield 44 0.22 0.00 0.00 1.18 2.99 0.34 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.44 0.43 13.26 0.00 13.26 376 Focus, Lichfield Road, Wednesfield, Wolverhampton 44 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.57 0.93 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 4.34 0.00 4.34 377 Other shops in Zone 44 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.76 0.00 1.76 378 379 Willenhall 45 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.31 0.98 2.96 2.58 0.30 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 11.41 0.00 11.41 380 Other shops in Zone 45 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.02 0.00 1.02 381 382 Comet, Walsall Road, Willenhall 46 0.22 0.53 0.00 2.75 0.37 2.91 2.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.68 0.00 17.68 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 383 Keyway Retail Park, Armstrong Way, Willenhall 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.37 384 Other shops in Zone 46 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.79 385 386 Bilston 47 0.00 0.30 2.33 4.90 1.28 0.17 0.69 9.76 0.00 1.24 0.59 1.68 1.03 0.00 0.48 44.20 0.00 44.20 387 B&Q Warehouse, Spring Vale Business Park, Bilston 47 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.59 0.37 0.13 0.79 2.16 0.05 0.82 0.07 0.53 0.38 0.30 0.52 12.40 0.00 12.40 388 Other shops in Zone 47 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 1.80 389 390 Bridgenorth 48 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 8.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.97 0.00 11.24 0.56 11.80 391 Other shops in Zone 48 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.84 392 393 Dudley Road/Blakenhall 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.81 0.00 3.81 394 Bilston Road Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.23 0.00 0.25 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.43 0.36 0.36 0.00 3.11 0.00 3.11 395 Mitre Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.87 0.00 1.70 0.00 1.70 396 Penn Retail Park, Marston Road, Penn Road, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 0.56 1.94 0.00 0.08 0.00 4.01 0.00 4.01 397 St John's Retail Park, Wolverhampton 49 0.00 0.00 0.72 2.82 1.12 0.34 0.62 2.65 0.00 1.67 4.35 3.20 1.05 1.51 1.88 26.63 0.00 26.63 398 Other shops in Zone 49 49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.79 399 400 Compton Village 50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.07 0.00 2.07 401 Other shops in Zone 50 50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 0.00 1.28 402 403 Warstones Road 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.77 404 Other shops in Zone 51 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.00 1.24 405 406 Tettenhill Village 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 1.25 1.39 0.00 1.39 407 Whitmore Reans/Avion Centre 53 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 2.23 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 5.22 0.00 5.22 408 Other shops in Zone 52 53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.57 409 410 Pendeford Park 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.00 1.72 411 Other shops in Zone 54 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.65 1.65 0.00 1.65 412 413 Sub total for OCA 23.62 53.24 22.12 80.80 76.75 44.46 31.39 79.81 17.74 32.70 56.67 55.72 25.63 73.70 58.52 2931.45 225.61 3157.06 414 415 Other Areas 416 417 Birmingham 0 2.88 9.20 3.20 3.00 1.69 2.28 2.28 5.99 0.67 1.38 3.57 2.69 1.39 3.62 1.38 675.30 418 Burton upon Trent 0 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 11.25 419 Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.25 4.12 420 Hanley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 421 Hereford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 422 Leamington Spa 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.30 423 Newcastle Under Lyme 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 424 Nuneaton 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 425 Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.53 426 Rugby 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 427 Shrewbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.74 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.29 4.54 1.16 10.93 428 Solihull 0 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.36 429 Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 1.14 22.68 ABAP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF BG 1 SPREADSHEET 1 - MARKET SHARES FOR COMPARISON SPENDING IN 2004 2 3 Zone Zone 40 Zone 41 Zone 42 Zone 43 Zone 44 Zone 45 Zone 46 Zone 47 Zone 48 Zone 49 Zone 50 Zone 51 Zone 52 Zone 53 Zone 54 TOTAL WV15, WV7, WV8, 4 Population and Expenditure Postcode WS8 WS9 WV1 WV10 WV11 WV12 WV13 WV14 WV16 WV2 WV3 WV4 WV5 WV6 WV9 5 Population 2004 12,619 29,226 13,634 44,883 40,885 23,669 18,834 42,702 15,138 18,721 30,435 29,580 10,174 44,036 30,847 1,891,953 6 Expenditure per capita in 2004 (in 2002 prices) £ 2,403 2,718 2,103 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,103 2,103 2,103 2,784 2,667 2,667 7 Total Expenditure 2004 £m 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4,384.29 430 Stratford upon Avon 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 4.51 431 Sutton Coldfield 0 0.64 9.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 130.95 432 Tamworth 0 1.27 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.32 433 Telford 0 0.06 0.00 0.00 6.04 1.96 0.64 0.39 0.16 15.98 0.29 0.83 0.30 0.00 13.80 12.18 70.71 434 Worcester 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.23 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.19 39.37 435 Abbey Retail Park, Alvechurch Highway, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 436 B&Q Supercentre, 1 Station Road, Stetchford, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 2.29 437 B&Q Supercentre, Brixton Way, Harlescott, Shrewsbury 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.43 438 B&Q Supercentre, Lichfield Street, Burton-On-Trent 0 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.79 439 B&Q Supercentre, Tame Valley Industrial Estate, Ninian Way, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 440 B&Q Warehouse, Dunlop Way, off Chester Road, Castle Vale, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 6.27 441 B&Q Warehouse, Jinnah Road, Off Tunnel Drive, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.53 442 B&Q Warehouse, Meir Park, Whittle Road, Stoke-On-Trent 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 443 Focus, Coventry Road, Sheldon 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 444 Focus, Town Centre, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.04 0.08 4.10 445 Homebase, Ansty Road, Coventry 0 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 446 Homebase, Findlay Road, High Street, Kings Heath, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.04 447 Homebase, Sir Henry Parkes Road, Canley, Coventry 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 448 Homebase, Walmley Ash Road, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 449 Madford Retail Park, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 450 Queensville Retail Park, Silkmore Lane, Stafford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59 451 Sears Retail Park, Oakenshaw Road, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.18 452 Solihull Retail Park, Chalford Way, Shirley, Solihull 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.49 453 Telford Bridge Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.75 454 Telford Forget Retail Park, Telford 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 1.06 455 Trafford Retail Park, Redditch 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 456 Ventura Retail Park, Ventura Park Road, Bitterscote, Tamworth 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.39 457 Kings Heath 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.62 458 The Fort Retail Park, Birmingham 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 459 Langley 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.19 460 Droitwich 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.29 461 Abroad 0 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.71 0.00 0.30 0.33 10.64 462 Catalogue 0 0.76 3.24 2.63 1.37 2.19 2.07 2.33 1.28 1.01 1.20 0.37 1.10 0.20 8.13 0.67 111.67 463 E-mail / Internet 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.08 464 Other 0 0.86 2.62 0.44 4.73 2.59 1.06 1.65 2.41 2.03 3.44 1.54 1.37 0.70 7.52 4.38 169.19 465 466 Sub total for areas outside OCA 6.71 26.21 6.55 16.02 11.46 6.60 8.22 10.00 24.41 6.67 7.35 6.49 2.69 43.76 23.76 1452.84 467 468 TOTAL 30.33 79.45 28.68 96.82 88.20 51.06 39.61 89.81 42.15 39.38 64.01 62.21 28.33 117.46 82.28 4384.29 225.61 4609.91 Spreadsheet 2 - Summary of Capacity, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 1
Change Change Change Change 2004 2011 2021 2031 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Total Population 1,891,953 1,894,236 1,868,425 1,827,439 2,283 -23,528 -40,986 -64,514 Total Expenditure £m 4,384.3 5,821.4 8,768.9 12,834.8 1,437.1 4,384.6 4,065.9 8,450.5
Retained Expenditure £m 2931.5 3895.9 5871.7 8596.9 964.5 2,940.2 2,725.2 5,665.4 Retained Expenditure % 66.9 66.9 67.0 67.0 Leakage £m 1452.8 1925.4 2897.2 4238.0 472.6 1,444.4 1,340.7 2,785.1
Inflow £m 225.6 299.9 451.4 660.0 74.3 225.7 208.7 434.4
Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 3157.1 4195.8 6323.0 9256.9 1,038.8 3,166.0 2,933.9 6,099.8
Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 964.5 2940.2 2725.2 5665.4
Claims on Expenditure Existing Traders £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 Impact on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3
SUMMARY 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Initial surplus £m 964.5 2940.2 2725.2 5665.4 Claims on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 RESIDUAL £m 368.8 1293.5 1379.7 2673.1
Turnover per sqft 607.42 777.55 995.33 995.33 Floorspace Requirement sqft 607,149 1,663,502 1,386,173 2,685,698 Floorspace Requirement sqm 56,406 154,545 128,780 249,510
Spread 2 - 6.xlsCapacity-Scen1 Spreadsheet 3 - Summary of Capacity, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 2
Change Change Change Change 2004 2011 2021 2031 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Total Population 1,891,953 1,965,368 2,039,761 2,114,155 73,415 147,808 74,393 222,201 Total Expenditure £m 4,384.3 6,090.1 9,538.2 15,069.3 1,705.8 5,153.9 5,531.1 10,685.0
Retained Expenditure £m 2931.5 4074.7 6388.2 10102.0 1,143.3 3,456.7 3,713.8 7,170.5 Retained Expenditure % 66.9 66.9 67.0 67.0 Leakage £m 1452.8 2015.3 3150.0 4967.3 562.5 1,697.2 1,817.3 3,514.5
Inflow £m 225.6 313.4 491.0 776.1 87.8 265.4 285.1 550.5
Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 3157.1 4388.1 6879.2 10878.1 1,231.1 3,722.2 3,998.8 7,721.0
Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 1143.3 3456.7 3713.8 7170.5
Claims on Expenditure Existing Traders £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 Impact on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3
SUMMARY 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Initial surplus £m 1143.3 3456.7 3713.8 7170.5 Claims on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 RESIDUAL £m 547.6 1809.9 2368.3 4178.2
Turnover per sqft 607.42 777.55 995.33 995.33 Floorspace Requirement sqft 901,510 2,327,768 2,379,419 4,197,868 Floorspace Requirement sqm 83,753 216,257 221,055 389,995
Spread 2 - 6.xlsCapacity-Scen2 Spreadsheet 4 - Summary of Capacity, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 3
Change Change Change Change 2004 2011 2021 2031 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Total Population 1,891,953 1,965,368 2,039,761 2,114,155 73,415 147,808 74,393 222,201 Total Expenditure £m 4,384.3 6,090.1 9,538.2 15,069.3 1,705.8 5,153.9 5,531.1 10,685.0
Retained Expenditure £m 2931.5 4116.5 6453.5 10205.1 1,185.1 3,522.1 3,751.6 7,273.7 Retained Expenditure % 66.9 67.6 67.7 67.7 Leakage £m 1452.8 1973.6 3084.7 4864.1 520.7 1,631.8 1,779.5 3,411.3
Inflow £m 225.6 315.0 493.5 780.0 89.4 267.9 286.5 554.4
Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 3157.1 4431.5 6947.1 10985.1 1,274.4 3,790.0 4,038.1 7,828.1
Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 1185.1 3522.1 3751.6 7273.7
Claims on Expenditure Existing Traders £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 Impact on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3
SUMMARY 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Initial surplus £m 1185.1 3522.1 3751.6 7273.7 Claims on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 RESIDUAL £m 589.4 1875.3 2406.1 4281.4
Turnover per sqft 607.42 777.55 995.33 995.33 Floorspace Requirement sqft 970,281 2,411,829 2,417,406 4,301,524 Floorspace Requirement sqm 90,142 224,066 224,585 399,625
Spread 2 - 6.xlsCapacity-Scen3 Spreadsheet 5 - Summary of Capacity, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 4
Change Change Change Change 2004 2011 2021 2031 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Total Population 1,891,953 1,965,368 2,039,761 2,114,155 73,415 147,808 74,393 222,201 Total Expenditure £m 4,384.3 6,090.1 9,538.2 15,069.3 1,705.8 5,153.9 5,531.1 10,685.0
Retained Expenditure £m 2931.5 4151.1 6508.5 10293.0 1,219.7 3,577.0 3,784.5 7,361.5 Retained Expenditure % 66.9 68.2 68.2 68.3 Leakage £m 1452.8 1938.9 3029.7 4776.3 486.1 1,576.9 1,746.6 3,323.4
Inflow £m 225.6 318.5 499.1 788.9 92.9 273.5 289.8 563.3
Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 3157.1 4469.6 7007.6 11081.9 1,312.6 3,850.5 4,074.3 7,924.8
Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 1219.7 3577.0 3784.5 7361.5
Claims on Expenditure Existing Traders £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 Impact on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3
SUMMARY 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Initial surplus £m 1219.7 3577.0 3784.5 7361.5 Claims on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 RESIDUAL £m 624.0 1930.2 2439.0 4369.3
Turnover per sqft 607.42 777.55 995.33 995.33 Floorspace Requirement sqft 1,027,281 2,482,482 2,450,460 4,389,770 Floorspace Requirement sqm 95,438 230,630 227,655 407,823
Spread 2 - 6.xlsCapacity-Scen4 Spreadsheet 6 - Summary of Capacity, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 5
Change Change Change Change 2004 2011 2021 2031 2004-11 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Total Population 1,891,953 1,965,368 2,039,761 2,114,155 73,415 147,808 74,393 222,201 Total Expenditure £m 4,384.3 6,090.1 9,538.2 15,069.3 1,705.8 5,153.9 5,531.1 10,685.0
Retained Expenditure £m 2931.5 4103.5 6433.6 10174.1 1,172.1 3,502.1 3,740.6 7,242.7 Retained Expenditure % 66.9 67.4 67.5 67.5 Leakage £m 1452.8 1986.6 3104.6 4895.1 533.7 1,651.8 1,790.5 3,442.3
Inflow £m 225.6 316.5 495.9 783.9 90.9 270.3 288.0 558.3
Total Turnover of Comparison Stores in OCA £m 3157.1 4420.0 6929.5 10958.0 1,262.9 3,772.4 4,028.5 7,800.9
Initial Surplus £m/annum (Growth in Retained Expenditure) 1172.1 3502.1 3740.6 7242.7
Claims on Expenditure Existing Traders £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 Impact on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3
SUMMARY 2004-21 2004-21 2021-31 2004-31 Initial surplus £m 1172.1 3502.1 3740.6 7242.7 Claims on capacity £m 595.7 1646.8 1345.5 2992.3 RESIDUAL £m 576.4 1855.3 2395.1 4250.4
Turnover per sqft 607.42 777.55 995.33 995.33 Floorspace Requirement sqft 948,872 2,386,126 2,406,326 4,270,363 Floorspace Requirement sqm 88,153 221,679 223,555 396,730
Spread 2 - 6.xlsCapacity-Scen5 Spreadsheet 7 - Summary of Division, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 1
Theoretical Theoretical Existing Traders' Additional Existing Traders' Additional Turnover 2004 Turnover Forecast Turnover Forecast Floorspace Floorspace Centre 2021 Turnover Turnover Required 2031 Turnover Turnover Required (£M) 2021 (£M) 2031 (£M) Requirement sqm Requirement sqm (£M) 2021 (£M) (£M) 2031 (£M) (2004 to 2021) (2004 to 2031) Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 1428.75 2092.33 1081.37 347.38 41,506 1384.24 708.09 66,092 Walsall 349.74 688.31 1000.23 532.17 156.14 18,655 681.23 319.00 29,775 West Bromwich 141.74 276.89 402.89 215.68 61.21 7,314 276.09 126.80 11,835 Wolverhampton 535.06 1054.40 1528.26 814.15 240.24 28,705 1042.19 486.08 45,370 TOTAL 153,071 777.5469315 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2021 995.3258094 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2031 Spreadsheet 8 - Summary of Division, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 2
Theoretical Theoretical Existing Traders' Additional Existing Traders' Additional Turnover 2004 Turnover Forecast Turnover Forecast Floorspace Floorspace Centre 2021 Turnover Turnover Required 2031 Turnover Turnover Required (£M) 2021 (£M) 2031 (£M) Requirement sqm Requirement sqm (£M) 2021 (£M) (£M) 2031 (£M) (2004 to 2021) (2004 to 2031) Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 1536.71 2423.08 1081.37 455.34 54,405 1384.24 1038.83 96,963 Walsall 349.74 770.00 1220.97 532.17 237.82 28,415 681.23 539.74 50,379 West Bromwich 141.74 319.52 511.51 215.68 103.84 12,407 276.09 235.43 21,974 Wolverhampton 535.06 1184.67 1884.29 814.15 370.51 44,269 1042.19 842.10 78,601 TOTAL 247,917 777.5469315 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2021 995.3258094 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2031
8369.51517 floorspace efficiency per sq.m 2021 Spreadsheet 9 - Summary of Division, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 3
Theoretical Theoretical Existing Traders' Additional Existing Traders' Additional Turnover 2004 Turnover Forecast Turnover Forecast Floorspace Floorspace Centre 2021 Turnover Turnover Required 2031 Turnover Turnover Required (£M) 2021 (£M) 2031 (£M) Requirement sqm Requirement sqm (£M) 2021 (£M) (£M) 2031 (£M) (2004 to 2021) (2004 to 2031) Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 1526.05 2406.26 1081.37 444.68 53,131 1384.24 1022.02 95,394 Walsall 349.74 942.37 1493.64 532.17 410.20 49,011 681.23 812.41 75,829 West Bromwich 141.74 307.87 493.08 215.68 92.20 11,016 276.09 216.99 20,254 Wolverhampton 535.06 1155.77 1838.26 814.15 341.62 40,817 1042.19 796.08 74,305 TOTAL 265,781 777.5469315 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2021 995.3258094 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2031
8369.51517 floorspace efficiency per sq.m 2021 Spreadsheet 10 - Summary of Division, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 4
Theoretical Theoretical Existing Traders' Additional Existing Traders' Additional Turnover 2004 Turnover Forecast Turnover Forecast Floorspace Floorspace Centre 2021 Turnover Turnover Required 2031 Turnover Turnover Required (£M) 2021 (£M) 2031 (£M) Requirement sqm Requirement sqm (£M) 2021 (£M) (£M) 2031 (£M) (2004 to 2021) (2004 to 2031) Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 1493.93 2355.71 1081.37 412.56 49,294 1384.24 971.47 90,676 Walsall 349.74 826.30 1309.98 532.17 294.13 35,143 681.23 628.76 58,687 West Bromwich 141.74 532.02 848.43 215.68 316.34 37,797 276.09 572.34 53,422 Wolverhampton 535.06 1156.94 1840.14 814.15 342.79 40,957 1042.19 797.96 74,480 TOTAL 277,265 777.5469315 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2021 995.3258094 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2031 Spreadsheet 11 - Summary of Division, for Comparison Goods Base Scenario 5
Theoretical Theoretical Existing Traders' Additional Existing Traders' Additional Turnover 2004 Turnover Forecast Turnover Forecast Floorspace Floorspace Centre 2021 Turnover Turnover Required 2031 Turnover Turnover Required (£M) 2021 (£M) 2031 (£M) Requirement sqm Requirement sqm (£M) 2021 (£M) (£M) 2031 (£M) (2004 to 2021) (2004 to 2031) Merry Hill/Brierley Hill 710.67 1505.94 2374.69 1081.37 424.57 50,728 1384.24 990.45 92,447 Walsall 349.74 751.74 1191.89 532.17 219.56 26,234 681.23 510.66 47,664 West Bromwich 141.74 315.80 505.61 215.68 100.12 11,963 276.09 229.52 21,423 Wolverhampton 535.06 1328.45 2112.43 814.15 514.29 61,448 1042.19 1070.24 99,895 TOTAL 261,429 777.5469315 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2021 995.3258094 floorspace efficiency per sq.ft 2031
8369.51517 floorspace efficiency per sq.m 2021 Per Capita Expenditure - Trend Based Zone 2004 2021 2031 1 2,325 4,697 7,020 2 2,125 4,293 6,416 3 2,176 4,396 6,570 4 2,176 4,396 6,570 5 2,325 4,697 7,020 6 2,654 5,362 8,014 7 2,125 4,293 6,416 8 2,654 5,362 8,014 9 2,551 5,154 7,703 10 2,551 5,154 7,703 11 2,124 4,291 6,413 12 2,030 4,101 6,130 13 2,070 4,182 6,250 14 2,070 4,182 6,250 15 2,030 4,101 6,130 16 2,030 4,101 6,130 17 2,030 4,101 6,130 18 2,718 5,491 8,207 19 2,124 4,291 6,413 20 2,684 5,423 8,104 21 2,124 4,291 6,413 22 2,469 4,988 7,455 23 2,124 4,291 6,413 24 2,469 4,988 7,455 25 2,469 4,988 7,455 26 2,684 5,423 8,104 27 2,551 5,154 7,703 28 2,551 5,154 7,703 29 2,667 5,388 8,053 30 2,046 4,134 6,178 31 2,046 4,134 6,178 32 2,046 4,134 6,178 33 2,403 4,855 7,256 34 2,718 5,491 8,207 35 2,292 4,631 6,921 36 2,292 4,631 6,921 37 2,046 4,134 6,178 38 2,292 4,631 6,921 39 2,403 4,855 7,256 40 2,403 4,855 7,256 41 2,718 5,491 8,207 42 2,103 4,249 6,350 43 2,157 4,358 6,513 44 2,157 4,358 6,513 45 2,157 4,358 6,513 46 2,103 4,249 6,350 47 2,103 4,249 6,350 48 2,784 5,625 8,406 49 2,103 4,249 6,350 50 2,103 4,249 6,350 51 2,103 4,249 6,350 52 2,784 5,625 8,406 53 2,667 5,388 8,053 54 2,667 5,388 8,053 Per Capita Expenditure - Growth Scenarios Zone 2004 2,021 2,031 1 2,325 4,700 7,169 2 2,125 4,296 6,552 3 2,176 4,399 6,710 4 2,176 4,399 6,710 5 2,325 4,700 7,169 6 2,654 5,366 8,184 7 2,125 4,296 6,552 8 2,654 5,366 8,184 9 2,551 5,157 7,866 10 2,551 5,157 7,866 11 2,124 4,294 6,549 12 2,030 4,104 6,259 13 2,070 4,185 6,383 14 2,070 4,185 6,383 15 2,030 4,104 6,259 16 2,030 4,104 6,259 17 2,030 4,104 6,259 18 2,718 5,495 8,381 19 2,124 4,294 6,549 20 2,684 5,426 8,276 21 2,124 4,294 6,549 22 2,469 4,992 7,613 23 2,124 4,294 6,549 24 2,469 4,992 7,613 25 2,469 4,992 7,613 26 2,684 5,426 8,276 27 2,551 5,157 7,866 28 2,551 5,157 7,866 29 2,667 5,392 8,224 30 2,046 4,136 6,309 31 2,046 4,136 6,309 32 2,046 4,136 6,309 33 2,403 4,858 7,410 34 2,718 5,495 8,381 35 2,292 4,634 7,067 36 2,292 4,634 7,067 37 2,046 4,136 6,309 38 2,292 4,634 7,067 39 2,403 4,858 7,410 40 2,403 4,858 7,410 41 2,718 5,495 8,381 42 2,103 4,252 6,485 43 2,157 4,361 6,651 44 2,157 4,361 6,651 45 2,157 4,361 6,651 46 2,103 4,252 6,485 47 2,103 4,252 6,485 48 2,784 5,628 8,584 49 2,103 4,252 6,485 50 2,103 4,252 6,485 51 2,103 4,252 6,485 52 2,784 5,628 8,584 53 2,667 5,392 8,224 54 2,667 5,392 8,224 STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
PLANS 1 - 25
STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Taking a 30 year view of the future of the Black Country Centres requires a visionary approach. The comparison between the four strategic centres now and in 1974 illustrates the magnitude of physical, economic and social change over this timescale. The indicators are that the scale of technological change and environmental priorities and consumer trends will lead to even more significant changes over the next 30 years.
1.2 The difficulties of making progress over this timescale (even ignoring the other components of the Black Country vision) should not be underestimated. However, there are a number of clearly discernible trends in the pattern of development in town and city centres, and the retail and leisure economies which underpin every major centre.
1.3 In this paper, we examine the main trends and changes taking place in the retail and leisure sectors, dealing initially with each in turn, and draw out the opportunities and challenges these present to the strategic centres and other town /district centres in the Black Country.
LEISURE SECTOR
1.4 This section examines key trends and drivers for change in the leisure industry. It reviews relevant demographic, social and economic trends, the increase in competition within the leisure industry, and the evolving role of the ‘leisure destination’.
i) DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
1.2 In Mintel’s ‘The Changing Face of Leisure 2003’, demographic trends are highlighted as working in the leisure market’s favour, with growth in the youth population outstripping that of the UK adult population as a whole. Younger adults tend to have a higher participation on many leisure activities such as sports and socialising. According to The Office of National Statistics (ONS) the 15-19 and 20-24 year old age brackets are both set to increase by over 10% between 1998 and 2006. The ‘55-64’ age group is also forecast to increase by over a fifth between the same period. Mintel states that this represents an important demographic for the leisure industry as this age group (55-64) is more likely to be ‘time-rich and cash-rich’.
ii) SOCIAL TRENDS 1.3 A number of profound changes within the structure of society have, over the last 25 years, impacted upon our consumption of leisure. According to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), people in the UK work the longest hours in Europe, with more people working in excess of 60 hours per week. A survey undertaken in 2002 by the DTI’s Work-Life Balance Campaign revealed that one in six men now work 60+ a week compared to one in eight two years ago. The number of women working similar hours has also increased, doubling to one in eight.
1.4 A survey undertaken by Mintel in April 2003 questioned respondents on the level of stress in their lives. The results revealed that around a fifth of adults definitely agreed with the statement ‘my life is quite stressful’, and in total nearly half of the respondents tended to agree with the statement. Stressful lives, mostly brought on by work pressures and long working hours, have a direct effect on leisure time, not only reducing leisure time but also how consumers then choose to spend it. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
1.5 Mintel highlights ‘household working patterns’ as one of the more important influences on consumer spending and behavioural patterns in general. In particular, the overall level of employment has increased by 3.4% between 1998 and 2003, although the growth in women in employment has risen twice as fast as that for men. This increase in ‘cash-rich, time poor’ consumers has a great influence on the leisure industry. To a growing sector of the population money is no longer as important as time; many consumers are prepared to pay a premium for convenience in order to save time. Mintel concludes that this is particularly prevalent for the increase in eating out habits and individual sports such as swimming and going to the gym.
1.6 The significant change underway in the number and structure of households is having a large influence on leisure trends. Mintel indicates that the trend towards a growing number of one- person households has benefited the leisure market, as it has helped drive the overall number of households up. In terms of those households with more than one person, the biggest growth is in the two-person household. This reflects the trends of a larger ageing population, children leaving home to set up with a partner and younger people leaving the decision to have children until a later age.
iii) ECONOMIC TRENDS 1.7 In economic terms, real growth in levels of personal disposable income, coupled with low unemployment, have resulted in a buoyant leisure market generally, with consumers being prepared to spend more on leisure activities. Drawing on National Statistics, Mintel highlights that ‘Personal Disposable Income’ (PDI) increased by 18% between 1998 and 2002 in real terms, and consumer expenditure increased by 19%. PDI and consumer expenditure are forecast to grow despite the slowing of the economy, helping to grow the leisure industry further.
1.8 A significant trend influencing the leisure industry is the large increase in the proportion of Class AB adults in the population. This increase is important for the leisure industry, in terms of there being an increase in affluence, as generally AB’s are higher income earners. Mintel recognises, however, that there are also generally more working hours and higher stress levels involved with the higher managerial positions usually associated with AB’s, which will have a huge influence on how leisure time is spent. Between 1998 and 2006, it is forecast that AB’s will increase in number by 33%. The state dependent E group is set to decrease by 19.1%.
1.9 Currently, the Black Country does not reflect this trend (see Technical Paper 5). However, the co-ordinated strategy to attract economic growth and change the profile of the area will bring about convergence of consumer spending, and hence demand for leisure services, with currently more affluent areas.
iv) LEISURE CHOICES 1.10 The range of leisure choice now on offer to the consumer has grown considerably within the last decade, leading to an increase in competition within the leisure industry (Table 1). It is evident that the pace of growth in the cinema and the health and fitness market has been notably faster than other sectors. According to Mintel’s report on Health and Fitness Clubs – UK (May 2003), between 1998 and 2002 the value of the private health & fitness clubs market increased by 62% at current prices; in real terms the growth was still substantial at 49%. Mintel recognised changes in sporting fashions, which have shifted away from STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
competitive sports towards those focused on personal health and fitness development. ‘Fitness First’ have recently outlined their plans for considerable expansion in recent press articles.
Table 1: Comparison of spend on selected leisure activities, 1998-2003 1998 £m 1999 £m 2000 £m 2001 £m 2002 £m 2003 (est) % change £m 1998-2003 Bingo 1,019 1,041 1,076 1,118 1,164 1,205 +18.3 Cinemas 720 781 827 895 965 1,026 +42.5 Health & 1,084 1,226 1,434 1,667 1,753 1,848 +70.5 fitness* Nightclubs and 2,156 1,975 1,830 1,804 1,767 1,727 -19.9 discotheques** Tenpin 201 206 219 233 245 258 +28.4 bowling Theme parks 224 236 232 236 249 259 +15.6 Eating out*** 20,029 21,116 22,230 23,246 24,436 25,092 +25.3 * Data relate only to private clubs and therefore exclude those clubs run on behalf of local authorities * Corporate facilities are also excluded * Includes spend in fast food outlets, pub catering, restaurants and other catering, but excludes 'chameleon/hybrid'- type outlets Source: Mintel
1.11 Between 1998 and 2003, Mintel estimates that the ‘eating out’ market grew by some 25%, largely due to convenience for consumers, an increase in disposable income and the social aspect of eating out. Mintel identifies that consumers are increasingly choosing to make life easier for themselves in order to offset the stress brought on by everyday life. Leisure time is becoming a precious commodity to consumers and in order to maximise free time, consumers are often choosing to combine a number of activities in an evening. As eating out has become less formal, it is now not necessarily the focus of the evening out but is considered as part of an overall experience.
1.12 Trading through pubs has grown slowly since 1998 despite buoyant economic conditions (Table 2), and, according to Mintel, the total number of licensed premises has remained fairly stagnant between 2000-2003. A significant amount of trade has been diverted to ‘take-home’ purchasing through supermarkets, shops and off licences, as well as cross Channel supplies. This has led to the major pub-landlords innovating in order to attract customers back to the pubs. Concepts include family pubs, and large ‘superpubs’ and sports bars in City Centres, all attracting a predominantly young clientele. Mintel’s research ‘Pub Catering UK Leisure Intelligence (July 2002) concluded that the revenue generated from pub catering increased by 27% in current terms between 1997 and 2001, and exceeded pub sales growth in alcoholic drinks by 23%. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
Table 2: The UK Pub Market, 1996-2003
Outlets No. Index Turnover Index Turnover Weekly £bn per outlet £* turnover 1996 72,329 100 20.6 100 285,000 5,480 1997 71,846 99 21.3 103 297,000 5,700 1998 71,700 99 21.9 106 305,000 5,870 1999 71,048 98 22.4 109 315,000 6,050 2000 70,504 97 22.7 110 322,000 6,200 2001 70,660 98 22.9 111 324,000 6,230 2002 70,900 98 23.1 112 326,000 6,270 2003 (est) 70,500 98 24.3 111 344,681 6,628
* data calculated using estimated weekly turnover as the base gross (eg including VAT) Data may not equal totals due to rounding Mintel uses a broad definition of pubs to include all fully licensed premises, some of which are bars situated in hotels and others similar to licensed cafés or restaurants Source: Mintel (see endnote 13)
1.13 Technological developments have had a huge influence on the leisure industry and how we spend our leisure time, with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable with the technology in their homes. The continued trend towards TV watching has been encouraged by the increasing number of channels now available, particularly via satellite and cable. Not only are emailing and surfing the Internet considered leisure activities, but online gaming, gambling and other activities are becoming increasingly popular. Using this medium can become a time saver for other leisure activities, such as shopping, booking tickets for cinema, theatre or concerts, and booking holidays.
v) CASINOS 1.14 The role of ‘Casinos’ is forecast to represent one of the greatest changes in the leisure industry over the next few years. According to Mintel, visits to casinos over a two-year period (1999-2001) grew by 5%. Consequently the average spend per visit to an average casino had risen to £59 in 2001. There are, however, significant differences between the London and provincial casino markets, for instance, although the provincial market accounts for 81% of all casinos and 76% of all visits, it only accounts for 37% of the industry turnover. Nevertheless, stronger growth in more recent times has been seen in the provincial market, with the London market experiencing a small slow down.
1.15 The Government is proceeding with plans to reform and update the laws regulating gambling in Great Britain, with the most far-reaching changes relating to casinos. In summer 2003, the Government set out plans for the UK’s casinos in a position statement ahead of the draft Gambling Bill in Autumn 2003. Plans include a minimum size for new casinos (465 sq m table gaming area), reduced regulations on the number of gaming machines and a clarification of the role of regional planning bodies. Casinos will no longer have to operate as private clubs, and will also be able to offer live entertainment, advertise, offer betting and bingo as well as table games, and offer larger numbers of gaming machines linked to each other to offer potentially large joint jackpots.
1.16 The thinking behind these decisions is to head off the possible proliferation of smaller high street casinos and to strike a fair balance between bringing gambling further into the STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
mainstream leisure industry and ensuring fairness to participants and the protection of children and the vulnerable. Planning Minister, Keith Hill, stated that Regional Planning Bodies will promote economic growth, development and regeneration in the right places, with the acknowledgement that casinos can make a significant contribution to the local economy.
1.17 These changes, which will assist the ability of casinos here to compete with what is increasingly a global market, will be taken forward within a new framework of regulation. The Government believes these changes will widen consumer choice and reflect the extent to which the gambling industry has become part of mainstream leisure. Casino operators have already responded to the proposed changes, and we anticipate strong demand for regional scale casino and associated facilities in the West Midlands.
vi) LEISURE/MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT
1.18 Since the mid-1990’s, despite higher rents, there has been a steady trend, driven by central government policy, towards building new leisure schemes in town/edge of centre locations. A number of factors have helped drive the growth of leisure venue provision in town and city centres. For example, urban living is back in fashion; town centres can offer consumers a much more vibrant atmosphere in which to eat and drink; and they also offer a much wider choice of leisure venues, allowing more spontaneous decisions. For bars, restaurants and health & fitness clubs, the attraction of the town centre is ‘daytime trade’, and the ability to capitalise on proximity to businesses and shoppers.
1.19 This change in location has also been combined with the inclusion of leisure complexes that incorporate both retail and leisure facilities. Leisure facilities can be used as a way of encouraging customers to stay longer and consequently spend more. The Trocadero in London’s West End is an example of this, with mainstream retailers such as HMV, Whittards, Sock Shop and Accessorize taking advantage of the high pedestrian flows created by the major leisure attractions such as Funland, the UGC multiplex and Planet Hollywood. This is also the case in the Metro Centre, Gateshead where a large leisure centre has been incorporated into the retail complex. Mixed-use retail and leisure development has proved to be a real growth area in town centres.
RETAIL TRENDS
1.20 In this Section, we outline the key national trends in retailing and service provision of relevance to the centres in the Black Country. This review is drawn from a range of published data sources, including research by Verdict Analysis and the New Economics Foundation.
i) RETAIL SALES 1.21 Retail sales increased by 6.2% between 2000-2001. This was the highest sales growth for several years and is largely as a result of increased available expenditure where people have remortgaged to take advantage of low interest rates. Verdict Analysis predict that retail sales growth will slow in 2002 as interest rates stabilise and in subsequent years growth of no more than 4% is predicted. With the slow down in the growth of retail sales, Verdict Analysis predict different fortunes for retailers in different sectors in the future. DIY, electrical, music, video and software sectors will be faster growing, whereas food and grocery, clothing and STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
footwear and floor coverings all face intense competition with low price inflation (price deflation in some cases) and low volume growth.
1.22 Verdict indicates that growth rates for bulky goods have considerably outpaced other retail sectors, for example, furniture and floorcoverings grew by 7.3% and DIY and gardening grew by 8.5% between 1996-2000, compared to 4.4% for clothing and food. The impact of DIY TV shows on sales growth has been considerable, and together with the ‘improve, not move’ trend and product and technical innovations the DIY boom is set to continue.
Figures 1: High Street Share of Total Retail Sales 1991-2001
% 52 51.1 51 50.0 49.7 50 49.2 49.1 48.7 49 48.4 48.0 48 47.5 47.1 46.7 47
46 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Note: High street figures include out-of-town shopping malls such as Bluewater Source: Verdict Analysis
1.23 Although high street sales grew by 43% between 1991-2001, this is below the growth rate for all UK sales (56%) as total sales were driven by much stronger growth in out of town sales (150% between 1991 and 2001). Verdict Analysis indicates that the slower rate of high street growth reflects its relative decline in significance over the last decade. The high street now accounts for 47% of retail sales compared with 51% in 1991 (Figure 1). Figure 2 indicates that out of town locations and e-commerce have eaten into high street sales.
Figure 2 Share of Sales
E-comm erce & Neighbourhood Out-of-town Home 17% 32% Shopping 4%
High Street 47%
Source: Verdict Analysis STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
ii) NUMBER OF SHOP UNITS
1.24 National retail trends indicate a continuing contraction in the number of shop units. Total store numbers in the UK have declined by 11% over the last 10 years. This masks variations in the decline of different types of stores and different locations. With the emergence and growth of superstores during the 1990s, there has been a decline in the number of smaller and more specialist food retailers. The number of food specialists has declined by 19% from 48,301 in 1992 to 39,131 in 2002. Whereas the number of large superstores has increased by 50% from 860 in 1992 to 1,292 in 2002.
1.25 As illustrated in Figure 3 during 1992-2002 leading supermarket multiples increased their share of the grocery market, as a result of the success of the superstore format. This has been the only channel to grow share over the last 10 years. Superstores now account for more than £2 out of every £5 spent on grocery in the UK. Some certain specialists have suffered more than others. The fishmongers share of the total grocery market has declined from 0.5% in 1992 to 0.1% in 2002. Butchers have also lost nearly 2% of their market share, declining from 4.1% to 2.2%. Both types of retailer have been affected by the improved quality and service at superstores for meat and fish. Greengrocers, bakers and other specialists have been slightly more robust, yet all three have lost market share.
Figure 3: Grocery Market Component 1992-2002e
1992 2002
Smaller Supermarkets and Smaller Grocer Sales Food Supermarkets 30.8% Specialists Food and Grocer 10.5% Specialists Sales 6.7% 34.8%
Larger Superstore Other Larger Sales Other Stores Superstore 40.6% Stores 24.6% Sales 30.1% 21.9%
1.26 Whilst the share of sales has drifted towards the out of town retailers, the high street increased its share of stores selling comparison goods in the latter part of the decade, this is largely as a result of Government policy (Figure 4). This trend looks set to continue, particularly with the virtual end of the development of large out of town regional shopping centres such as Lakeside and Bluewater and the focus instead on town centres schemes such as the Bull Ring in Birmingham. The larger format of out of town stores means that retailers require fewer stores to increase sales, hence the relative decline of high street sales. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
Figure 4: High Street Outlet Numbers – Share of all Outlets 1991-2001
% 60
59
58.0 57.8 58 57.1 57 56.6 56.1
56 55.4 55.5
55 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.3
54
53 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Note: High street figures include out-of-town shopping malls such as Bluewater
Source: Verdict Analysis
iii) POLARISATION TOWARDS LARGER CENTRES
1.27 The early indicators of a re-emergence of the high street, is a recent phenomenon. It remains to be seen whether the focus of development activity back into centres will be matched by growth in the market share of town centres, to recapture ground lost to out of centre facilities.
1.28 An equally significant and longer term trend is the continuing polarisation by retailers towards larger schemes in larger centres, to the detriment of smaller centres. CB Hillier Parker’s ‘National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns’ shows that the top 70 centres in the country now attract over 50% of the country’s population for comparison goods shopping. There is therefore a concentration of comparison goods expenditure in a smaller number of larger centres. This is being reinforced by new development particularly in shopping centres and malls. Almost half of the shopping centre floorspace in the pipeline is destined for these same 70 centres which will further reinforce their dominant market share. This concentration of retailing in larger centres is likely to threaten some medium and smaller towns.
1.29 This has profound implications for the Black Country, best illustrated by the growth and dominance of Birmingham City Centre and Merry Hill, and the parallel decline in relative terms of centres like Dudley and West Bromwich (precipitated by the departure of key anchor retailers such as Marks & Spencer). The focus of retailers and developers is increasingly concentrated on larger developments in dominant city centres which are, or have the potential to become, ‘top 50’ destination with strong catchments. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
1.30 At the other end of the spectrum, the growth of the dominant foodstores and decline in unit numbers poses similar challenges for small town centres and district/local centres which rely on their convenience/service base. A clear picture is emerging of a network of large dominant superstores, and corresponding decline/diversification in the traditional smaller centre. This is already evident in the varying fortunes of the smaller town/district centres in the Black Country, suggesting over the next 30 years many smaller centres will cease to exist in their current form.
iv) E COMMERCE 1.31 The advent of new technology such as internet or digital television home shopping is unlikely to have a universal effect on retail expenditure. Certain sub-sectors are likely to be more affected than others, as the internet has particular attraction for certain types of retailing, including books, CD’s and high value electrical goods. Verdict Analysis indicate that many of the high street’s key national multiples are developing multi-channel strategies that combine the technology of the internet with the brand power of their stores. Examples include WH Smith and Boots. Verdict Analysis suggest that the ‘clicks and mortar’ approach could further increase the concentration of markets. Centres that offer a range of complementary, non- retail attractions and/or offer a high level of convenient shopping facilities are likely to be more resilient to these changes.
1.32 In the convenience sector it is considered that internet shopping is unlikely to have a significant effect in the future. Although Verdict predict that growth will be fuelled by the increasing savviness of consumers, as growing numbers of women and older people become more confident in ordering on line and ordering is speeded up by broadband, overall they forecast that this will not have a significant effect on sales. Verdict predict that on-line sales will increase from £1.4bn in 2001 to £5.3bn by 2007, this will still however only make up 4% of all grocers and food specialist sales.
v) NON-FOOD RETAILERS FASCIAS AND FORMATS 1.33 Changes are occurring in the traditional ‘high street’ fascias as evidenced by closures and rationalisation and the emergence of new retailers. Whilst these changes are most likely to affect the larger city centres, operators such as Arcadia whose high street fascias include Top Shop/Man, Burton, Dorothy Perkins, Evans and Warehouse are rationalising and reducing the number of outlets across the country. New retailers are emerging, including the international fashion stores such as Mango and Zara, they are however only seeking representation in larger centres.
1.34 Retailers which are expanding more generally on the ‘high street’ include value orientated operators such as the clothing retailer Primark which has increasingly moved away from sites in more secondary locations to higher profile sites in town centres. Other mainstream value orientated retailers expanding on the ‘high street’ include Uniqlo and Peacocks. Overall value orientated retailing looks to be a key growth area. As a reaction to this, middle market operators are segmenting their offer further, providing either more upmarket own brands such as Per Una and Blue Harbour in Marks and Spencer or more heavily discounted offers such as in New Look. Diversification into other sectors is also occurring particularly into homewares. For example Next and Monsoon are offering ‘interior’ products.
1.35 The space requirements of retailers on the ‘high street’ and particularly in shopping centre locations are also being reconsidered and increasingly operators are requiring larger STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
footprints. Next for example is favouring larger units and the latest unit planned for the extension to the Arndale Centre in Manchester will provide a 4,000 sq m store which is a significant anchor store provision. Similarly operators such as H&M and Zara are requiring large footprints in order to be able to compete with one another and off centre locations, show case extensive product ranges and provide sufficient in store facilities and an attractive, modern shopping environment.
1.36 Whilst there has been a slow down in out of centre floorspace development, where opportunities arise there is continued pressure for large store formats. In the future it will be necessary to avoid the development of ‘high street’ type comparison goods in out of centre locations, in order to achieve PPG6 objectives of sustaining and enhancing town centres and to avoid any adverse impact from out of centre development on existing town centres.
1.37 Increasingly traditional ‘high street’ retailers are seeking to diversify their formats and provide out of centre facilities. For example, Woolworths has introduced Big W stores which sell a range of home related products. Boots and WH Smith are also investing in out of town retail park stores, although they are finding it difficult to differentiate their offer sufficiently from their high street stores, and on the whole sell a greater proportion of lower ticket items. Clothing and footwear has also been moving away from the high street and onto out of town retail parks over the last 10 years. Next for example is focusing on out of town development, using the Directory and on line products to stock the larger format.
vi) FOOD RETAILERS FASCIAS AND FORMATS
1.38 The leading foodstore operators are continuing to innovate to increase their market share. Some have developed smaller store formats such as Tesco Metro and Sainsbury’s Local and been more innovative in their town centre proposals. There has also been a growth in ‘forecourt’ retailing, operated either by the large supermarket chains or the major oil companies such as Esso, BP and Shell.
1.39 However, the pressure for larger superstores and hypermarkets will continue, particularly through the expansion of successful out-of-centre foodstores. With town centre foodstores tending to underpin the role of smaller centres, the cumulative impact of these superstores may undermine smaller centres over a number of years. Any further proposals for expansion of existing out of centre convenience stores must be considered in terms of need, sequential approach and impact.
1.40 The discount retailers continue to seek opportunities to expand their networks. To a certain extent their offer complements existing local centre facilities. For example, Aldi only sells a more limited proportion of the lines that would be available in a larger superstore and does not offer facilities that would be found in local centres such as fresh butchers, fresh bakers or fishmongers, and other non-food facilities such as drycleaners, pharmacy or post office. In addition, their operating hours are not as extensive as they are not open on Sundays and do not have late night opening. As such there could be more of a role for their presence within the local centres.
vii) PHARMACIES
1.41 The position of community pharmacies in local and town centres has been relatively protected and little change has occurred in numbers since 1987. The Office of Fair Trading’s STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
(OFT) Market Investigation Report attributes this to regulations which seek to control entry to the market. Currently the regulations only give pharmacist’s dispensations to provide NHS prescriptions where they satisfy health authority requirements that their services are ‘necessary or desirable’ for a local area.
1.42 Despite the relatively small change in actual community pharmacy numbers, the dynamics of the market have changed. Since 1990 ‘Superdrug Ltd’ have entered the market and other existing national pharmacy chain’s (i.e. Boots) and supermarkets have significantly increased their market share.
1.43 In January 2003, the OFT recommended to the Government that there should be a deregulation of pharmacies thereby allowing all registered pharmacies with qualified staff to be able to dispense NHS prescriptions. This could result in significantly more pharmacies in supermarkets, and thereby impact on traditional outlets. Research commissioned by Lloyds Pharmacy in January 2003 showed that, at present approximately 6,000 pharmacies across the country are located within the catchment area of two or more supermarkets and therefore they are potentially threatened. The New Economics Foundation consider these pharmacies to be at threat should deregulation occur. They state that “this could translate to as many as 145 pharmacies being lost in an urban area such as Birmingham” (New Economics Foundation, 2003, p3).
1.44 The Chancellor, Gordon Brown supports the OFT report, whilst the former Secretary of State for Health, Alan Milburn sought to resist deregulation. However the final decision rests with Patricia Hewitt, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry. The Department of Trade and Industry are expected to come forward with a balanced package of measures and proposals before the summer recess which aim to open up the market and improve quality and access without diminishing the role pharmacies play. All changes to the regulations will then be the subject of full consultation.
viii) POST OFFICES
1.45 Research by the New Economics Foundation indicates the importance of the local post office branch, for example as a focal point for social interaction, information about job and community services, financial transactions and advice. Services are especially valued by the disabled, those without a car, those over 65, carers and one-parent families. In urban deprived areas, post offices are also the main source of cash and in many cases double as the only store providing an important source of food and basic items for local people. The role of post offices in maintaining local economies is emphasised by the New Economics Foundation; once people have cash in their hands, they will more often choose to spend it in local shops.
1.46 Britain has one of the most extensive post office networks in Europe and 94% of people are within a mile of one of them. Of England’s parishes, 57% had a post office; while only 30% a general store and 9% a bank or building society (Rural Services Survey, 1997). Despite the number of post offices, the New Economics Foundation reported in December 2002 that the number of post offices in the UK has been in steady decline of around 2-3% a year for the last ten years. In 1981, there were 22,000 post offices in Britain, by April 2001 this had fallen to 17,846. According to the Financial Times, Britain lost 547 post offices in 2001, 112 of which were in urban centres. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
1.47 The automation of services (i.e. direct debit payment methods and banking transfers) has reduced handling fees, which Post Offices rely on for revenue; the lack of suitable replacement sub-postmasters/mistresses when they retire; and reductions in shoppers in local centres have all contributed to increasing the number of post office closures. The New Economics Foundation stated, “that where the supermarkets draw away shoppers, the post office goes too. If one end of these businesses comes under threat, either the retail or the post office – the community risk losing both institutions for good” (New Economics Foundation, 2002, p20).
1.48 Despite the government announcement in December 2002, that £450 million would be received by the Post Office in return for keeping rural branches open and grants of up to £50,000 will be given to urban post offices in some of the poorest areas to make them viable and prevent closure, the Government and industry observers said that this would not prevent further closures (New Economics Foundation, 2002). The Post Office also announced in February 2003 that 3,000 urban branches were to close under the urban reinvention programme over the next three years, therefore the trend is set to continue.
ix) BANKS/BUILDING SOCIETIES
1.49 Barclays, Lloyds TSB, HSBC and RBS Natwest, known collectively as the ‘Big Four’, account for over two thirds of all private current accounts in Britain and have a virtual monopoly of (89%) over small business accounts (New Economics Foundation, 2002). Rationalisation by the ‘Big Four’ has contributed to many branch closures, however technological advances through the emergence of telephone and internet banking; competition from branchless banks (the average cost of transaction in a branch is twice as much as that conducted over the telephone); and the availability of banking services through post offices (i.e. Barclays and Lloyds TSB) have impacted upon bank and building society branch numbers.
1.50 During the 1990’s the number of high street bank branches fell dramatically. Britain lost over a quarter of its branch network. Between 1988 and 2000 the number of bank branches fell from approximately 17,500 to 12,000, with more than 3,500 bank branches closing between 1995 and 2000 (The Mail on Sunday, October 2002). The British Bankers Association reported that more than 150 bank branches were closed in 2001, whereby, Lloyds TSB (74), Barclays (35), Halifax (22), HSBC (19) and Bradford & Bingley (11), were responsible for the majority of them. In addition the Building Societies Yearbook reported that 200 Building Society branches disappeared from the high street between 2000 and 2002. Deloitte Research estimates that the termination programme will ultimately continue and a further 3,600 bank branches will close by 2005. (New Economic Foundation, 2002).
1.51 The British Bankers Association piloted a scheme throughout 2002 in ten communities, to allow customers to make withdrawals and exchange notes and coins through a competitor’s bank branch. A feasibility study for a national branch sharing scheme has also been produced (March 2003) and reports and announcements are expected back from the banking industry over the next few weeks regarding the future for branch sharing. Despite this, Abbey National has undertaken a branch sharing scheme of it’s own. Costa Coffee bars have been incorporated in several branches and other outlets have been set up in Safeway and Homebase stores. Abbey National and WH Smith have also been reported to be considering a similar move. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
x) ASIAN RETAILING
1.52 Asian centres often provide a retail offer which meets all of the local population needs in a single destination. For example providing outlets for ethnic foods and clothes, as well as providing professional services such as lawyers and accountants. Often Asian centres become a focal point for ethnic minorities over a relatively wide area. Most Asian retail centres do not have a transparent market. Businesses tend to be family run and in freehold ownership with the majority of property deals not being reported in the market and therefore property market information is very limited.
1.53 Asian/ethnic retailers tend to be single unit shops run as a family business serving predominately Asian/ethnic communities. However, over the last 3-5 years a number of retailers have begun to open stores in more than one location. These stores tend to be designer outlets but are still run by families in predominately ethnic areas. Daminis, could be described as the first Asian multiple retailer, providing a brand name and image of designer clothing. Other retailers such as Chiffons seem to be pursuing a similar strategy. Again the retailer is targeting the Asian designer clothes market by providing a brand/designer name which the market can associate with.
1.54 Although the expansion of multiple retailers across the UK ethnic centres is likely to be slow, retailers within India have begun to forge international ties, focusing on the UK, USA and Canada. Other retailers in the India sub-continent, such as Kulthams and Lakshmi do not have shops under their own names but have developed links with smaller retailers in the UK to display and supply their goods, as well as allowing customers to pick up clothes that they may have ordered while on holiday in India. Asian retailers have also begun to embrace technology, with stores such as Benzer opening up sites on the Internet. Retailers such as Roopam, the international mail-order company, based in Bombay, are following suit.
1.55 Asian retailing will continue to be dominated by the family run business. However, the next generation is beginning to incorporate the quality (of shopping environment) associated with national multiples with the personal services of the individual retailer and therefore they may soon be breaking into the mainstream retailing centres. In addition many second/third generation Asians, born in Britain, are more likely to shop in the usual range of national multiple retailers common to most High Streets.
SUMMARY
• Demographic trends are working in the leisure market’s favour, with growth in the youth population outstripping that of the UK adult population as a whole. There has also been a significant increase in the ‘time-rich / cash-rich’ 55-64 year old age group. Work pressures and long working hours have, however, had a direct effect on reducing leisure time for many age groups. For this growing ‘cash rich / time poor’ consumer group money is no longer as important as time, with many prepared to pay a premium for convenience in order to save time.
• In economic terms, real growth in levels of personal disposable income, a large increase in Class AB adults, and low unemployment have resulted in a buoyant leisure market with consumers being prepared to spend more on leisure activities. This pattern is forecast to continue. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 1: RETAIL/LEISURE TRENDS
• The range of leisure choice now on offer to the consumer has grown considerably within the last decade, leading to an increase in competition within the leisure industry. Growth in the cinema and health & fitness market has been notably faster than other sectors. The ‘eating out’ market grew by some 25% between 1998 and 2003 and technological developments have had a huge influence on the leisure industry with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable with the technology in their homes.
• The role of casinos is forecast to represent one of the greatest changes in the leisure industry over the next few years. The Government believes the changes proposed in the draft ‘Gambling Bill’ will widen consumer choice and reflect the extent to which the gambling industry has become part of mainstream leisure.
• Since the mid-1990’s, despite higher rental levels, there has been a steady trend, driven by central government policy, towards building new leisure schemes in town/edge of centre locations. This change in location has also been combined with the inclusion of leisure complexes that incorporate both retail and leisure facilities.
• National retail trends indicate a slowdown in the growth of retail sales, compared to recent figures, but overall sustained growth of Circa 4% is expected. However, it remains to be seen whether the high street is able to recapture market share progressively lost to the out of town sector over the last 15 years.
• In parallel with spending growth, we anticipate a continued decline in the number of shops, and a further shift of retail activity to fewer, larger centres. This pattern of polarisation applies both at the strategic level, where the growth of Birmingham poses a major challenge to the Black Country Centres, and at the local level where sales are increasingly becoming focussed into network of large dominant foodstores.
• In the service sector, including post offices, banks and building societies and public houses all indicate a decline in these services in local centres throughout the UK. There have been particularly significant falls in the number of banks and post offices which will have clear implications for the number of people visiting and shopping in local centres. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION
1.1 GVA Grimley/RTP have developed the initial methodology outlined in our proposal for consultancy services in February 2004. Following our inception and initial client group meetings we have developed further the methodology, drawing on a combination of bespoke surveys and existing/published data to develop a means of assessing global capacity for retail and commercial leisure uses, and identifying and testing alternative options for the spatial distribution of new development between strategic and other centres.
1.2 The focus of the quantitative analysis is on comparison retail development, on the basis that this function is the most significant factor determining the scale of central area activity in strategic centres, and the biggest single catalyst for change in the role and function of centres. We have also considered the capacity for key commercial leisure uses, including cinemas, bars/restaurants, and, casinos, although with the exception of certain major “destination” functions, e.g. regional casinos, these uses tend to be ancillary to the dominant comparison goods retail function of most higher order centres.
1.3 Our analysis has been undertaken in parallel with the economic forecasts being undertaken by GHK, and the RPG housing/demographic projections, which are expected to identify the capacity/scope for additional commercial office development and housing.
BEST PRACTICE
1.4 In developing our methodology, we have drawn on established best practice and our extensive experience in this field. In particular, we are closely involved in preparing the forthcoming ODPM Good Practice Guidance on Retail and Leisure need and impact assessments, which identifies the importance of regional and sub-regional strategies and sets out a number of basic guiding principles:-
The need for a transparent methodology.
The need to use objective and up to date data inputs.
The need to justify the use of growth rates and key assumptions used in the analysis.
The importance of identifying alternative options and objective testing.
The importance of sensitivity testing.
1.5 The methodology we have developed for the Black Country Centres Study builds on these guiding principles.
1.6 In developing our approach, two factors have been particularly significant:-
First, the study takes a 30 year time frame, i.e. up to 2036. As a consequence, caution is needed in the use of population/expenditure projections and predicting future trends in retail/leisure and town centre development. Equally, however, it is necessary to look well beyond current strategies and development opportunities, bearing in mind many existing STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
buildings and uses and existing centres are likely to be functionally obsolete over this time scale. On this basis, we have not sought to unduly constrain our review of strategic options based on current market perceptions/development opportunities, but rather to concentrate on achieving the most effective distribution of town centre activities to serve the needs of the Black Country as a whole and the needs of the individual catchments.
Second, while recognising the broad measure of consensus that a polycentric approach is needed to consider the four strategic centres, as a whole, we have always identified the potential for conflict between the individual aspirations of the Black County Authorities for their own centres, and the potential that the scale and/or timing of development in one centre may have implications for the scale and timing of development achievable in another. As a consequence, the framework developed for identifying and, in particular testing alternative options must be seen to be robust and objective and based on agreed criteria.
BASELINE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS
i) DEFINE STUDY AREA
1.7 In order to develop baseline capacity projections for retail and key commercial leisure capacity over the study period, we have adopted a conventional approach using objective in- centre/household survey data to define current catchments and market size, as a means of projecting populations/expenditure growth to generate “surplus” capacity for different uses. This provides the basis for identifying alternative options (i.e., alternative means of distributing identified capacity between centres).
1.8 In discussion with the client group, we agreed at the outset to conduct an independent in- centre survey in the four strategic centres. While not in the original proposal for consultancy, we concluded that this would provide the most objective means of identifying each centres’ catchment for retail and leisure activities, and provide a sound basis for defining a composite household survey area. The benefit of this approach is that it allows us to define accurately the combined catchment area of the centres and avoid under or over sampling. (The survey also provides a wealth of data on the role and interaction of the centres and perceptions which are considered elsewhere.)
1.9 A total of 1, 200 face-to-face interviews were conducted in the four strategic centres over the period 29th March to 3rd April 2004. Pedestrian counts were also taken for the four areas surveyed, to enable the results to be weighted at each point to the representative of the average count in the centre. The results one weighted to reflect frequency of visits, to ensure that the results are not unduly influenced by the views of occasional visitors.
1.10 A copy of the questionnaire is reproduced in Section 7.
ii) HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
1.11 Based on the findings of the in-centre survey, a study area was defined for the purposes of commissioning the household survey. This area was further divided into sub zones as a means of measuring current shopping/leisure patterns within the study area as a whole and between the four strategic centres. Within this area a household telephone interview survey STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
was carried out with a sample of 4, 000 households, broken down between the zones. The survey area and zones identified are shown on plan 2.
1.12 Within each zone the pattern of spending for residents was determined for each of the principle retail spending categories as follows:-
i) main food and groceries;
ii) top-up shopping for food and groceries;
iii) clothes and shoes;
iv) furniture, carpets, soft household furnishings;
v) DIY and decorating goods;
vi) domestic appliances such as fridges, cookers and other electrical goods; and
vii) specialist non-food items such as china, glass, books, jewellery, photographic goods, musical instruments and sports equipment.
1.13 The results of the two types of food and groceries expenditure (main and top-up) are merged – through the application of a weight which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by each type – so as to form a composite pattern of convenience spending, expressed as market shares for each destination centre or foodstore, for each survey zone. The weights are:-
main food and groceries = 67%
top-up food and groceries = 28%
incidental minor convenience purchases = 5%
all convenience expenditure = 100%
1.14 Composite market shares in the comparison sector and derived through the application of two sets of weights. The first weight will reflect the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by the top three spending locations, approximately as follows:
Top spend location = 68% of expenditure
Second highest spend location = 25% of expenditure
Third highest spend location = 4% of expenditure
All other locations = 3% of expenditure
all comparison expenditure = 100% STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
1.15 This procedure allows for market shares to be calculated for each of the five types of comparison purchases. We then calculate the overall composite comparison market shares through the application of a second weight to reflect the proportion of expenditure of each type of goods, approximately as follows:
clothes and shoes = 25%
furniture, carpets, soft household furnishings = 12%
DIY and decorating goods = 6%
domestic appliances such as fridges, cookers and other electrical goods = 12%
specialist non-food items such as china, glass, books, jewellery, photographic goods, = 45% musical instruments and sports equipment
= 100%
iii) POPULATIONS/SPEND PROJECTIONS
1.16 Population and expenditure estimates are derived using the Experian database to give trend line population growth/decline projections for each of the individual zones. Bespoke expenditure projections on retail/leisure goods were commissioned, broken down into eighteen different zones to ensure that differences between the current spending are within different parts of the study area are properly reflected in the analysis.
1.17 In addition to these baseline projections, in discussion with the client group we have developed an alternative set of population/expenditure estimates based on the RPG housing figures calculate population growth, and assuming convergence of income with the UK national average.
iv) BASELINE POSITION
1.18 Using the results of the household survey composite market shares and baseline expenditure estimates, we calculate the total comparison turnover of the four strategic centres, and the turnover of other centres within the Black Country and leakage to higher order centres, notably Birmingham City Centre. This provides an objective measure of the current performance of the strategic centres and detailed analysis of each centre’s catchment and shopping/leisure patterns and their role within the wider retail hierarchy.
v) GROWTH RATES
1.19 We have adopted the latest Experian business solutions growth rate of 4.1% per annum compound for comparison goods expenditure, and applied this to the base per capita expenditure estimates in order to project total available comparison expenditure and the STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
turnover of the key strategic centres over the study period. This recently published rate has replaced the ultra long term projection of 3.6% per annum previously measured by URPI over the period since 1963, and reflects sustained high levels of per capita expenditure growth on comparison goods in recent years. In the absence of any counter indicators, we have assumed that this is a realistic growth rate to apply over the study period, allowing for inevitable fluctuations based on wider economic conditions.
1.20 One of the main drivers to expenditure growth on comparison goods has been growth in the value as opposed to volume of purchases. A classic example is high value flat screen televisions replacing lower value, higher bulk predecessors. As a consequence, it would not be appropriate to translate forecast growth in comparison goods retail sales directly into a request for additional floor space.
1.21 Two factors need to be taken into account:-
First, Black Country contains a multiplicity of town and district centres, containing a substantial stock of retail floor space developed to meet very different retailer requirements and economic circumstances. Translating current and forecast expenditure into floor space requirements requires careful consideration of how existing vacant stock will be reused, and how best to achieve the transformation of obsolete space into accommodation of the right type and in the right location to meet current/future needs.
Second, even if all existing retail/leisure floor space within the Black Country was currently modern and well suited to operator requirements/consumer demands, it would be appropriate to make an allowance for continued real growth in sales of existing floor space before planning for additional space. Traditionally, an allowance of 1.5% per annum has been made to account for anticipated real growth in existing floor space out of forecast expenditure growth. More recently, analysis undertaken by Experian suggests that in line with higher levels of per capita expenditure growth, actual growth in retail productivity has been considerably higher.
1.22 In these circumstances, in line with emerging good practice and reflecting the long term horizon for this study, we consider circa 2.5% per annum of forecast growth over the study period should be hypothecated to support existing retail space to drive productivity and sustain and enhance existing retail areas.
vi) CAPACITY PROJECTIONS
1.23 Adopting this approach, our baseline analysis identifies current and forecast expenditure on comparison goods and key leisure services, and after making allowances for the recycling of existing stock and absorption of vacant units and improved productivity of existing space, identifies global capacity projections in terms of expenditure and indicative floor space requirements within the Black Country, and the capacity generated by the four strategic centres.
1.24 In the commercial leisure sector, we have identified current and forecast expenditure broken down into the various sub-sectors, eg expenditure on eating and drinking, cinemas, health and fitness casinos etc. The output of this baseline analysis is an indication of overall growth expenditure and result of capacity from additional development within the Black Country STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
study area as a whole, and within each of the four strategic centres based on current market size.
SCENARIOS/SCENARIO TESTING
i) TREND AND REVISED BASELINE PROJECTIONS
1.25 The baseline capacity projections provide the basis for generating alternative scenarios. One of the key challenges of the project is to examine the role which the strategic centres will be expected to perform in meeting forecast capacity over the study period. However, in developing and testing different scenarios it is also necessary to examine how our global capacity projections would be affected by other factors.
1.26 The most obvious factor influencing global capacity for new retail/leisure development within the defined strategic centres is their ability to retain/increase their market share either by recapturing expenditure currently taking place in Birmingham City Centre, or by redistributing expenditure from other centres within the study area. Therefore one of the key considerations is the extent to which it is realistic to expect Black Country Centres, individually and cumulatively, to be able to accommodate a level of development beyond the baseline capacity projections, and the realism and commercial/policy implications of doing so.
1.27 The second key consideration is the effect of other parallel initiatives arising out of the Black County Study. Specifically, we need to examine the consequences of reversing the trend of population decline, and regeneration of the Black Country economy to bring convergence of incomes and hence expenditure on retail/leisure services to the GB average.
1.28 In addition to these ‘central’ case scenarios, the study will examine different permutations of development within the four strategic centres, again taking comparison retail as the main driver. Besides the global capacity projections identified in our baseline analysis, generation of alternative scenarios is based on our audit of each centre, in particular having regard to:-
The physical potential of the four strategic centres to accommodate major new retail/leisure and other central development, based on identified sites and redevelopment opportunities.
Market perceptions/current evidence of retailer/leisure operator demand and the extent to which current perceptions are likely to change.
The current market share/capacity and performance of the centre, which will influence the potential to increase market size further.
The current strategy for each centre, and its likely effect upon market share and the potential for the centre to maintain or enhance its position within the sub-region.
1.29 This analysis has a key bearing on each centres ability to accommodate its current share of forecast capacity, and/or potential to increase its market size for the Black Country. Equally, the extent of development opportunities, the vision and ambition for each of the Black Country Centres has a direct bearing on the potential to drive overall capacity growth within STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
the Black Country. In this respect the alternative development scenarios for the four strategic centres should not be constrained by the baseline capacity projections.
1.30 In effect we anticipate preparing two sets of projections:-
The ‘trend’ baseline analysis which simply assumes that population/expenditure growth takes place within the identified trend line, and adopts the neutral assumption that the four strategic Black Country Centres collectively retain their overall market share relative to higher order centres and other town and district centres; and
The enhanced capacity scenario, based on a combination of population/economic growth within the sub-region and the ability of one of more of the strategic centres to increase the overall capacity and market size of the Black Country.
ii) OPTIONS GENERATION
1.31 In each scenario, based on our review of the physical opportunities, market perceptions and current strategies/opportunities within the four strategic centres, we consider four broad options warrant testing:-
Option 1. ‘Status Quo’. This reflects the current market share of each of the strategic centres, and assumes that each achieves incremental growth in line with its current market share.
Option 2. Wolverhampton. This option examines the realism of reinforcing Wolverhampton’s dominance as the principal city centre serving the Black Country sub- region and a conscious policy decision to elevate it’s retail/leisure further relative to above the other strategic centres.
Option 3. Wolverhampton and Brierly Hill. This option examines the realism and implications of seeking to reinforce further the retail/leisure functions of Wolverhampton and Brierly Hill as the two dominant centres (while retaining organic growth in the other strategic centres) to create two genuinely regional scale centres for the Black Country.
Option 4. Four strategic centres, This option builds on Option 3, but examines the implications of promoting the role of Walsall, and in particular West Bromwich to sub- regional significance in retail/leisure terms to provide a four strategic centres option.
1.32 These broad options inevitably over-simplify the range of detailed policy options/choices in the Black Country. Given the anticipated scale of population/expenditure growth, none of the options examined anticipate decline in the role and function of the existing strategic centres. Instead, the objective is to examine the overall implications of maintaining the current relationship between the role of the four strategic centres; reinforcing this distribution by focusing growth on the currently most successful centres, or attempting to redistribute forecast capacity in order to achieve more balanced provision.
1.33 We should also emphasise that while the key economic driver for the role of the strategic centres is likely to continue to be as retail and commercial centres, the complimentary provision of residential and cultural/community uses will form a critical part of the strategy for STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 2: METHODOLOGY
individual centres, and for development of a polycentric approach to meeting current and forecast needs of the Black Country over the study period.
iii) CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION
1.34 In order to test the four key options under each scenario, it is necessary to agree the key criteria against which each should be evaluated and ranked, and to agree the weighting which should apply to each.
1.35 To illustrate this point, if social inclusion and access to shopping and leisure facilities is the paramount objective, a pattern of dispersal of activity is likely to score highly. Conversely, the overriding objective is to have an unparalleled range in choice of retail/leisure/cultural facilities in the Black County to rival Birmingham City Centre, a strategy which focuses development on a single centre or small number of strategic centres is likely to achieve a higher overall score. We consider the key evaluation criteria to be:-
1.36 Based on national and regional policy guidance, and we consider the key evaluation criteria to be:-
Reducing the need to travel to strategic centres and achieving the most sustainable pattern of provision.
Achieving an accessible and socially inclusive network of strategic centres which are accessible to the whole Black Country.
Achieving the best range and quality of retail, leisure and other services which the Black Country as a whole is able to sustain.
Achieving a realistic and deliverable strategy within early ? to capture ? investment.
Maximising regeneration, ie by focusing new investment into those centres/ communities in greatest need.
Minimising impact on existing centres, ie by delivering the maximum net additional contribution to economic activity and/or minimising the impact on particularly vulnerable centres and communities.
1.37 In the case of travel distance and sustainability we anticipate the four broad options outlined would be tested through the prism model. By modelling the effects of alternative development strategies, focusing on retail/commercial leisure uses, the trend and reversed baseline models will be reworked in order to test each of the scenarios outlined above, to enable each option to be scored between one and four, one being the best performing and four being worst performing.
1.38 We expect that this will generate some consistent measures, e.g. between sustainability/social inclusion, and some inconsistent outcomes where policy decisions need to be reached. The resolution of these issues will depend on the weighting which the client group ascribes to each variable, providing a transparent and fully accountable basis on which to develop the most effective centre strategy. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
DUDLEY METROPOLITAN BOROUGH COUNCIL
I)INSPECTOR’S REPORT INTO OBJECTIONS TO THE DEPOSIT DRAFT DUDLEY UNITARY DEVELOPMENT PLAN, FEBRUARY 2004
1.1 Work commenced on the review of the Dudley Unitary Development Plan (UDP) in 1997 with the Plan subsequently progressing through two formal deposit periods. In addition, Dudley MBC (the Council) formally published two sets of Pre-Inquiry Changes in September and November 2002. Two further sets of Proposed Changes were placed before the Inspector during the Inquiry, which ran from 17 December 2002 until 12 June 2003. Following consideration of the Inspector’s recommendations the Council resolved in March 2004 to accept his Report and to amend the Draft Deposit UDP accordingly.
1.2 Throughout the Plan’s preparation the Centres and Retail policies and proposals have undergone a number of changes as the Plan has evolved. These changes reflected both the need to respond to representations received at each stage of the process but also the commissioning of further technical work by the Council, which informed the redrafting of several policies. Of major significance also was the publication of The Panel Report on Draft Regional Planning Guidance (RPG11) in September 2002. This necessitated a number of changes to the Plan, particularly in relation to the draft policies and proposals for Brierley Hill.
1.3 The relevant Centres and Retail policies considered by the Inspector are set out in the Council’s Second Pre-Inquiry Changes (November 2002) and in a further set of Changes submitted during the Inquiry (April 2003).
1.4 The Part 1 Strategy policy statement for the Role of Centres (S13) states that the Council intends to promote the development of Dudley as a strategic town centre and Brierley Hill as a major regeneration area in order to achieve physical regeneration and to attract investment that will improve the range town centre facilities available to borough residents. The policy also notes that:
‘Support for the role of the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area as a principal location for employment, commerce, shopping and leisure activity within the Borough will be complemented by action to ensure the restructuring and regeneration of the Borough’s other main centres of Dudley, Stourbridge and Halesowen, in order that they remain an important focus for a wide variety of shopping, leisure, community, cultural, housing and administrative activity.
Other District and Local Centres within the network will remain a focus for day-to- day shopping, social, leisure and community uses for their locality.’
1.5 The strong policy emphasis on securing the physical and economic revitalisation of both Brierley Hill and the Borough’s other centres is set out in more detail in Part 2 of the UDP in the Centres and Retail chapter.
1.6 Policy CR1 establishes the following hierarchy of centres, which will be sustained and enhanced: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Strategic Town Centres and Regeneration Areas
Dudley, Brierley Hill
Town Centres
Halesowen, Stourbridge
District Shopping Centres
Brierley Hill High Street, Kingswinford, Lye and Sedgley
Local Shopping Centres
Amblecote, Cradley/Windmill Hill, Gornal Wood, Netherton, Pensnett, Quarry Bank, Roseville, Shell Corner, the Stag, Upper Gornal, Wall Heath and Wollaston
1.7 Specific roles have been identified for each of the centres within the hierarchy and the Council will use planning policies to maintain and, where necessary and appropriate, improve the shopping function and environment of these centres.
1.8 Policies CR1 and CR2 also provide guidance on the need for further comparison goods retail development in the Borough over the plan period up to 2011 based on the conclusions and recommendations of the Dudley Retail Study (May 1999) and its subsequent updates as prepared for the Council by Roger Tym & Partners (RTP).
1.9 In allocating new development across Dudley, the Deposit Draft UDP identifies that the main scope for the expansion of Borough centres will be within the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area and the strategic centre of Dudley, with more limited scope for development in both Halesowen and Stourbridge. In determining the scale and distribution of new development the UDP states that regard has been had to the sub-regional role and significance of Merry Hill as a retail destination and to both the physical and economic capacity of the Borough’s older centres to accommodate additional development. Policy CR2 (Corrected) states that:
‘Subject to other policies of this Plan, the Council will permit additional new retail floorspace up to the following figures: -
1. In Dudley Town Centre: 15,000 sq.m (gross) comparison floorspace
2. In Stourbridge Town Centre: 4,500 sq.m (gross) comparison floorspace
3. In Halesowen Town Centre: 4,500 sq.m (gross) comparison floorspace
4. Within the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area: 43,500 sq.m (gross) comparison floorspace.’
1.10 Policy CR5 requires that all new developments within or on the edge of existing centres should be compatible with the scale, character and function of the centre and that, either individually or cumulatively, proposals within centres are not detrimental to the vitality or viability of any neighbouring centre. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
1.11 Policy CR8 provides guidance on the need for additional large foodstore development in the Borough over the plan period. The Dudley Retail Study and its subsequent update revealed that there would be limited surplus expenditure growth in the period up to 2011 to support new foodstore development in the Borough. However, it identified a need to redress the balance of past development patterns and encourage the development of large modern foodstores (over 2,300 sq.m) at King Street/Flood Street, Dudley and at St. John’s Ring Road/Birmingham Street, Stourbridge to act as both a catalyst for their regeneration and to anchor their overall shopping function.
1.12 Due to the scale of the opportunities that exist in the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area, Dudley, Halesowen, and at Stourbridge, Part 2 of the UDP includes specific Inset Plans to guide the future development of these centres. Below, we highlight the policies and proposals contained within the Dudley Inset Plan, as well as the Brierley Hill Inset Plan.
Dudley Town Centre Inset Plan
1.13 The Dudley Town Centre Inset Plan sets out the Council’s vision for Dudley as a prosperous market town providing services for the local community and people visiting the town, together with nearby tourist attractions. The town is also to be promoted as an important focus for a wide variety of shopping, leisure, community, cultural, housing and administrative activity.
1.14 RTP considered the scope for further retail development within the town centre in its original Dudley Shopping Study (May 1999) and in subsequent updates. RTP concluded that there was scope for the development of a large foodstore and up to 15,000 sq m (gross) of additional comparison shopping floorspace (primarily bulky goods) within the town centre in the period up to 2011. In accordance with the Study’s recommendations the King Street/Flood Street area is identified by the Dudley Inset Plan as the most suitable location to accommodate its development.
1.15 The opportunity to reintroduce residential development back into Dudley is also highlighted, with the Inset Plan identifying scope for the provision of 360 new dwellings in the town centre over the plan period.
1.16 Underpinning these objectives is recognition of the need to secure significant improvements to the town centre’s accessibility and to the overall shopping environment in order to attract further investment and greater public usage.
1.17 Policy DTC1 sets out a range of proposals for improving the existing network of primary and secondary thoroughfares within the town centre. Key measures proposed include improved public transport interchange facilities in Birmingham Street; the introduction of Midland Metro to serve the town centre; the protection and enhancement of public open spaces and green space; improved pedestrian access between the town centre and both the existing and proposed tourist attractions at Castle Hill; and the enhancement of town centre gateways and the introduction of traffic management measures to improve the safety and movement of vehicles and pedestrians.
1.18 Policy DTC2 identifies a number of street blocks within the town centre where there is potential for concentrated action, through a combination of redevelopment and enhancement. Guidance on design and the preferred acceptable and unacceptable uses is provided for each block. Significant proposals include: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
The identification of two priority areas for improvement shown as Retail Priority Renewal Areas at Birdcage Walk and at Numbers 30-37 High Street. (Block 1)
Improved and safer pedestrian access between the High Street/Market Place and King Street. (Block 1)
The partial or comprehensive redevelopment and refurbishment of the Castle Street area. (Block 3)
The redevelopment of the Tower Street Opportunity Site for a new multi-storey car park and the introduction of new housing into the area. (Blocks 3 & 4)
The development of the Castle Hill area for a range of leisure and tourism uses to complement the area’s existing attractions including the Zoo and Castle together with improved links within the town centre. (Block 6)
The partial or comprehensive redevelopment of the Trident Centre. (Block 7)
The creation of a Cultural Quarter in the Stone Street and Priory Street areas. (Blocks 11 & 14)
The comprehensive mixed-use redevelopment of the King Street/Flood Street area for a large foodstore, comparison goods shopping and leisure uses. (Block 21)
The introduction of Midland Metro and the provision of improved transport interchange facilities at Birmingham Street. (Block?)
1.19 In order to take the policies and proposals set out in the Inset Plan forward to implementation the Council in partnership with Advantage West Midlands, commissioned DLA in February 2004 to prepare an Area Development Framework (ADF) for the wider Dudley Town Centre area.
Brierley Hill Inset Plan
1.20 The policies and proposals contained in the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area Inset Plan are based upon the vision for the evolution of the wider Brierley Hill area into a new town centre of sub-regional importance first set out in the Brierley Hill Area Development Framework (ADF). This was prepared by David Lock Associates (DLA) in July 1998 and subsequently adopted by the Council as supplementary planning guidance (SPG) in June 1999.
1.21 The Inset Plan seeks to consolidate the role of Brierley Hill as a sustainable focus for meeting high quality business, residential and retail needs in the Borough in a way which delivers wide ranging planning benefits for the community. This is to be achieved principally by:
• acknowledging the role of Merry Hill as a key retail destination within the Borough, and as a fundamental economic force for wider investment in Brierley Hill; STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
• recognising the special role of Brierley Hill High Street as a secondary trading location within the overall area serving a more localised catchment area and function;
• building upon the momentum created by high quality development achieved within the Waterfront around the canal basin by extending high density, high quality, mixed-use development along Dudley Canal; and
• pursuing a comprehensive development strategy to create an attractive, safe, and well-connected urban environment.
1.22 Policy BHRA1 establishes the overarching strategy for Brierley Hill, intended to deliver the essential characteristics of an accessible, sustainable, vital and viable town centre; and to promote inward investment, new employment opportunities and stimulate regeneration of the wider area. The policy states:
‘Brierley Hill Regeneration Area, as defined by the Inset Plan Boundary, will be:
• Promoted as a new sustainable focus for business, commerce retail, leisure, culture, public services and urban living;
• Established as a focus for social, economic and environmental regeneration;
• Made more accessible for pedestrians, cyclists and people using public transport;
• Restructured around an interconnected network of thoroughfares and public spaces;
• Developed as a pattern or inter related and connected urban quarters including the established Quarters of Merry Hill, Waterfront and Brierley Hill High Street; and
• Made more attractive through a high standard of new design and the conservation and creation of a high quality townscape.
1.23 Policy BHRA3 promotes the development of up to 43,500 sq m of additional (comparison) retail development within the Regeneration Area to be developed in the period up to 2011. The policy also requires that retail development will be expected to be accompanied by a significant enhancement in linkages and a greater mix of uses. No further retail development of significant scale should take place at Merry Hill before 2006 and before improvements to public transport are secured and the introduction of a car parking regime compatible with other centres in the sub-region. The policy also seeks to maintain the character and functioning of the existing Merry Hill Retail Park and Brierley Hill High Street.
1.24 Policy BHRA6 seeks to enhance the role of the Regeneration Area as a new residential community through the development of a minimum of 1,100 new dwellings.
1.25 Policies BHRA8 to BHRA14 set out a policy framework for securing the effective integration of the Regeneration Area’s component parts and for delivering significant improvements to the transportation infrastructure serving Brierley Hill including the introduction of Midland Metro. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
1.26 Policies BHRA15 and BHRA16 provide detailed guidance on the scale, nature and mix of new development proposed within the Regeneration Area in order to provide a balance of uses across the area and to contribute to the creation of distinct and complementary urban quarters.
1.27 Policies BHRA20 and BHRA21 establish a framework for securing the comprehensive development of Brierley Hill including the use of the Council’s land assembly powers together with the use of planning obligations to secure the necessary supporting infrastructure to allow the proper development of the Regeneration Area.
1.28 In addition to the Inset Plan further detailed SPG is set out in the Draft Brierley Hill Planning and Design Guide (January 2003), The Draft Brierley Hill Implementation Strategy (January 2003) and the Draft Borough Car Parking Strategy (January 2003). These documents are reviewed separately.
Implications of the Inspector’s Report for the adoption of the UDP
1.29 The Council received the Inspector’s UDP Inquiry Report in February 2004. The key changes to the Plan proposed by the Inspector focus on Brierley Hill/Merry Hill and the Council’s proposals to develop the area as a major new urban centre. The Inspector’s main recommendation was that:
‘The Council should reconsider their general approach to the retail and centres strategy and the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area, and that all policies, proposals and references to the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area be deleted.’
1.30 In reaching this decision the Inspector took account of the Secretary of State’s (SoS’s) Proposed Changes to the Draft Regional Planning Guidance (RPG) in September 2003 which placed a question mark against the principle of any development at Brierley Hill / Merry Hill. In the (then) Draft RPG the SoS took the view that Merry Hill is an out-of-centre shopping destination and further large-scale retail development would not be appropriate unless it could be justified through the next review of RPG11 as being necessary to fulfil a strategic, regional or sub-regional need. Further, the SoS considered that it would therefore be premature to determine whether major retail, leisure or office development would be appropriate at Merry Hill and, if so, what type, before the Regional Planning Body had decided upon its regional and sub-regional priorities for regeneration and for focusing retail, leisure and office development. The SoS also emphasised that any expansion of Merry Hill would also be subject to transport improvements.
1.31 In recommending the deletion of the Brierley Hill policies the Inspector recognised that the removal of such a key element of the Plan’s development strategy would result in a major policy vacuum. As a result, the Plan’s approach to the pattern of future development in the Borough would be partial and, to some extent unbalanced. The Inspector noted that there would also be consequential effects on the Plan’s housing and employment strategies given the important role ascribed to the area in meeting these needs.
1.32 The Inspector therefore recommended that, notwithstanding the problems associated with a partial Plan, the Council should proceed with adopting the remainder of the UDP and prepare for an early review of the Plan pending the completion of the next review of RPG. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
1.33 As a result of the deletion of any references to Brierley Hill in the Plan the Inspector also recommended that the Council narrow the strategic focus of the Centres and Retail Chapter to the hierarchy of the existing town, district and local centres. On the related issue of the retail floorspace estimates that underpinned the strategy the Inspector took the view that the results overall were soundly based and provided a reasonable guide to future floorspace requirements within the Borough over the plan period. In the short term leading to a review of RPG, the Plan would therefore continue to be guided by the quantum and distribution of floorspace requirements as currently set out together with the site specific allocations.
1.34 The deletion of the respective Part 1 and Part 2 policies relating to Brierley Hill has further implications for Dudley MBC with regard to the preparation of SPG for the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area.
1.35 In January 2003 the Council published draft SPG for the Regeneration Area in the shape of the Brierley Hill Planning and Design Guide and the Brierley Hill Implementation Strategy. Both documents were prepared to assist in implementing the proposed policies of the Brierley Hill Inset Plan, which would, upon adoption of the UDP, have provided a statutory context for their operation. As a result of there now being no relevant or up-to-date statutory planning framework for the area the draft guidance no longer has a statutory basis and can therefore no longer be considered as a material consideration in the determination of planning applications in the area.
1.36 Despite the Inspector’s recommendations, should Brierley Hill be identified as an appropriate location for major new development, both the Draft Inset Plan and the draft SPG documents provide a useful starting point for developing a robust and comprehensive planning policy framework for the area. In the short to medium term however, the absence of an up-to-date development plan framework may have serious consequences both in terms of maintaining the momentum that has already been developed in progressing the regeneration of Brierley Hill, and for the Council and its partners in accessing public funding to support this process.
II)THE BRIERLEY HILL AREA DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK, JULY 1998
1.37 In 1997 Dudley MBC and Chelsfield Plc – owner of the Merry Hill Shopping Centre and the adjoining Waterfront office and leisure complex – commissioned DLA to prepare an ADF to articulate a ‘vision’ for the development of the Brierley Hill area and to pave the way for a new development strategy to be incorporated into the revision of the UDP.
1.38 As a starting point DLA considered a number of possible alternative futures for Brierley Hill, which included reversing the processes of change that had given rise to Merry Hill and the Waterfront, to an alternative, accepting what had been achieved but preventing further evolution. The Study concluded that the most appropriate course of action would be to accept that a putative town centre had emerged, and that its consolidation and long-term integrity is essential to the prosperity of the Borough and to the quality of life of its residents.
1.39 The Study established, through an illustrative masterplan, a series of principles to guide the evolution and further transformation of Brierley Hill into a fully functioning and sustainable urban centre. This was complemented by a Development Strategy which sought to overcome the deficiencies in the physical form of the Study Area through the creation of better links and connections between its principle component parts as well as identifying and developing STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
distinctive character areas and quarters as the basis for encouraging further investment and development.
1.40 The Council published and adopted the ADF in June 1999. The strategy and principles for the development of Brierley Hill set out in the ADF were translated into a series of policies and proposals for incorporation within the UDP’s Inset Plan for Brierley Hill. These draft policies were further refined and detailed through the preparation of draft SPG – namely the Brierley Hill Planning and Design Guide and the Brierley Hill Implementation Strategy – which were both published in January 2003 (see below).
1.41 Although the original illustrative Master Plan for the development of Brierley Hill set out in the ADF has been superseded by a more recent and up-to-date version in the Draft Implementation Strategy, the overarching strategy and principles established in the ADF remain valid and relevant in considering the future planning and development of the area today.
III)DRAFT BRIERLEY HILL PLANNING AND DESIGN GUIDE, JANUARY 2003
1.42 Dudley MBC published the Draft Brierley Hill Planning and Design Guide in January 2003 in support of the UDP. The Guide advises on good urban design practice in implementing the policies of the draft UDP and, by way of illustration, demonstrates that the objectives for the quality of the built environment of the Regeneration Area are realistic and achievable.
1.43 It had been the intention of the Council that once the content of the UDP had been finalised (following receipt of the Inspector’s Report) the Guide would have been reviewed and, if necessary, revised in the light of the Inspector’s comments. As the Inspector has now recommended the deletion from the UDP of all policies and proposals relating to Brierley Hill there is also now no statutory planning context within which to continue to prepare guidance as previously intended.
IV)DRAFT BRIERLEY HILL IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY, JANUARY 2003
1.44 The Draft Brierley Hill Implementation Strategy was published by Dudley Council in January 2003 with the purpose of explaining in more detail the anticipated sequence of development within the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area and the likely mechanisms for its delivery.
1.45 The Strategy was prepared with the objective of securing the orderly progress of development in Brierley Hill in accordance with the policy framework established in the draft revised Dudley UDP. The physical components (built development, infrastructure/public realm, environmental improvements and public transport) defined by the policy framework are described in the Implementation Strategy as a series of interrelated and interdependent projects, which are connected together through the preparation of an updated illustrative masterplan.
1.46 The Strategy describes the specific requirements or objectives of the UDP with reference to the proposed Urban Quarters and Development Areas of Brierley Hill (which are defined in the Brierley Hill Inset Plan) and focuses on: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
the potential for new built development including both the quantum and mix of new uses within the Development Opportunity Areas to support a more diverse and intense pattern of land use;
new and improved connections across the area to facilitate access, movement and integration (primary and secondary thoroughfares);
new public spaces to accommodate public activity and improve public transport access and interchange;
intensification of car parking into multi-deck forms to free land for development and reduce the impact on the public realm;
environmental improvements to the existing built fabric and public realm; and
site preparation and servicing.
1.47 The Strategy envisages that the development of the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area will be implemented in three phases and describes for each of the proposed Quarter Areas the anticipated sequence of development, the scale and mix of new development, and the delivery and funding mechanisms required.
1.48 The Strategy highlights the important interdependency between additional retail and mixed- use development and the funding and implementation of Brierley Hill’s regeneration. For each of the proposed Quarters of the Regeneration Area where retail development is proposed the Strategy sets out a series of Retail Development preconditions. These require prospective developers to deliver or fund the provision of necessary supporting infrastructure to secure the balanced development of the wider Regeneration Area. Mirroring the requirements of the SoS as set out in (then) Draft RPG, specific actions include the delivery of improvements to public transport including the extension of the Metro to Brierley Hill and the introduction of a car parking regime, including charging, compatible with that in other centres within the Regional network of centres.
1.49 Once the Implementation Strategy had been agreed and adopted by the Council it was the intention of the Council and Chelsfield Plc to formally sign a Development Agreement based on the provisions of the Strategy to ensure the proper development of the area. As with the Draft Brierley Hill Planning and Design Guide it was also the intention of the Council to revise the draft Implementation Strategy following receipt of the Inspector’s Report on the UDP and to publish an updated version of the Strategy for consultation and subsequent adoption by the Council as supplementary planning policy. This course of action is no longer possible in view the Inspector’s recommendation that the Part 1 and Part 2 UDP policies for the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area be deleted from the UDP pending a future review of RPG.
1.50 A further complication for the Council to deal with is the fact that in March 2004 it commissioned DTZ Pieda to undertake the preparation of a detailed Implementation and Investment Master Plan for Brierley Hill High Street based on the detailed proposals for the development of the area as set out in both the draft UDP and SPG. The absence of an up- to-date planning policy framework for the study area may have a significant impact on the early delivery of a future strategy for the High Street and the development of its hinterland. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
V)THE BRIERLEY HILL TRANSPORTATION ACCESS STRATEGY DRAFT FINAL REPORT DECEMBER 2002
1.51 In July 2001, FaberMaunsell was commissioned by Dudley MBC to provide technical support in developing a transportation and access strategy for Brierley Hill and to assist in the development of an Annex E Major Scheme bid for a number of highway and public transport improvements in the area for inclusion in the revised West Midlands Local Transport Plan.
1.52 The core objectives of the Access Strategy were to:
improve overall accessibility to the Brierley Hill area;
integrate the High Street, Merry Hill and the Waterfront together as part of a wider Regeneration Area;
provide a more sustainable means of access to the area;
offer mode choice; and to
develop a more efficient internal transport system within the area as a whole.
1.53 The principle components of the Implementation Strategy to help deliver the core objectives include:
Midland Metro Line 1 Extension from Wednesbury to Brierley Hill;
provision of a new Parallel route to the existing A461 Brierley Hill High Street, upgrading of Waterfront West, provision of additional highway infrastructure between the A4036 Pedmore Road and Waterfront Way, and associated improvements to named junctions in the vicinity of Brierley Hill High Street;
the introduction of bus priority measures on the approach routes to Brierley Hill, Merry Hill and the Waterfront;
a new bus/metro interchange in the vicinity of the Cottage Street metro terminus;
improvements to the existing Merry Hill bus station and the provision of a bus-only road between the Merry Hill bus station and the A4036 Pedmore Road;
improved passenger waiting facilities throughout the Regeneration Area including new /improved shelters, bus stop, lighting, access/egress facilities, seating and improved passenger information; and
the development of a new, centrally located, showpiece bus station that integrates with Metro, allowing equidistant access to the main parts of the town centre.
1.54 In addition to the major transport infrastructure proposals outlined above FaberMaunsell also highlighted the need for general area-wide improvements in relation to walking, cycling and signing. FaberMaunsell also identified the need to secure ongoing improvements in bus services and infrastructure on the major public transport corridors serving Brierley Hill including the expansion of Bus Showcase routes and the provision of bus feeder services to STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Metro Line 1 Extension together with major improvements to bus stations in Cradley, Dudley, Halesowen and West Bromwich.
1.55 FaberMaunsell further concluded that the further development of Brierley Hill and its growing function as an emerging town centre meant that greater attention needed to be given to the development of a car parking strategy which was consistent with the application of policy elsewhere in the West Midlands. In supporting the introduction of a car park charging regime for Brierley Hill FaberMaunsell noted that the level of charges to be set must also recognise a key fact that, unlike more mature centres such as Birmingham and Wolverhampton, the provision of alternative non-car modes is not sufficiently comprehensive at the current time to provide the necessary accessibility. It is proposed therefore that parking charges should be set at a relatively low level initially but that they should increase to be consistent with comparative rates in the West Midlands as new transport provision comes on stream.
1.56 Since the preparation of the Draft Final Report in December 2002 significant progress has been made in implementing many of its key recommendations. These include the securing of funding for the implementation of Midland Metro and the Parallel Route Major Highways scheme together with the completion of major junction improvements around Merry Hill at both Level Street and the Boulevard. The Draft Final Report has not yet been finalised or published by the Council; it nevertheless provides a comprehensive overview of the potential measures which could be adopted to improve the accessibility of the Brierley Hill area and enhance its sustainability as a location for further investment and development.
VI)DUDLEY RETAIL STUDY FINAL REPORT, MAY 1999
1.57 The Dudley Retail Study, prepared by RTP and published in May 1999, considered the need for new shopping development in the Borough over the period 1997-2006 across three broad retail formats: comparison, bulky and convenience goods. The Study also advised on a location strategy. Although the original quantitative outputs of the Study have since been superseded and updated, the Study’s underlying policy recommendations on managing the development of the Borough’s network of centres is still worthy of consideration today.
1.58 As a basis for future policy development the Study identified and defined a new hierarchy of centres within Dudley Borough which reflected the emergence of Brierley Hill (including Merry Hill and the Waterfront) as a new centre of sub-regional significance, and recognised the corresponding decline of Dudley as an important focus of for comparison shopping and business activity.
1.59 Against this background of a new hierarchy of shopping centres the Study recommended that:
some three quarters of the Borough’s future ‘pure comparison’ goods floorspace should be allocated to Merry Hill, with the balance being allocated to Dudley, Halesowen and Stourbridge thereby maintaining existing market shares;
any further ‘bulky comparison’ goods retail development should be located within the town centres of Dudley, Halesowen and Stourbridge where the prospects for ‘spin-off’ trade to existing town centre uses could be maximised; STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
with only a limited quantitative need for new foodstore development in the Borough during the study period priority should be given to securing the development of large modern foodstores in Dudley and Stourbridge;
preventing development at Merry Hill would not switch retailer or investor interest back to smaller centres in the Borough as they now fulfil a different role and function in the retail hierarchy;
Dudley town centre’s future would be best addressed by concentrating on securing the comprehensive development of the King Street/Flood Street area for a major new foodstore and mixed comparison goods retailing; and that
the Council should take the lead in planning for a decrease in the total stock of existing floorspace by some 20,000-25,000 sq m (gross) in Dudley town centre through reductions in secondary and fringe areas.
1.60 The Study’s recommendations subsequently formed the basis of the policy approach adopted in the First Deposit Draft Dudley UDP and, with the exception of RTP’s conclusions on Brierley Hill, the report still provides useful background information on the strategic context for the current Deposit Draft UDP’s Centres and Retail policies and proposals.
VII)TECHNICAL PAPER ON UPDATED RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY, DECEMBER 2002
1.61 In August 2002 Dudley MBC commissioned RTP to undertake a new survey of households in and around the Borough to establish current patterns of expenditure for various types of retail goods and to provide an assessment of capacity and need for further retail development.
1.62 RTP projected the need for an additional 69,000 sq m gross of comparison goods floorspace over the period up to 2011. Just over a third (37 per cent) of this comparison space is to be provided in Dudley, Halesowen and Stourbridge with development likely to occur before 2006 and the remaining 63 per cent (43,500 sq m) being developed within the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area in the period up to 2011, with the majority of this to be developed post- 2006.
1.63 RTP identified scope in Dudley for an additional 15,000 sq m of comparison floorspace, which would be largely taken up through the implementation of a major scheme at King Street in the form of retail warehouse type stores, unit shops and a large foodstore. The Study noted that there was further scope at Castle Hill, outside the town centre to accommodate as part of major leisure development the inclusion of some 13,470 sq m gross of complementary retail space in the form of a Botanical World attraction selling plants and garden type goods (7,432 sq.m gross) and shops selling crafts, souvenirs and tourist related products (6,038 sq.m gross).
1.64 The revised floorspace estimates and the proposed allocation of future development across the Borough set out in the Updated Retail Capacity Study were considered by the Inspector at the Public Inquiry into the Draft UDP. The Inspector concluded that the results overall were soundly based and provided a reasonable guide to the future retail floorspace requirements of the Borough over the Plan period. However, as a result of the Proposed Changes to Draft RPG the Inspector further recommended the deletion (for now at least) of the retail floorspace allocation for the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area pending a future review STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
of RPG, and clarification of the appropriateness of the area as a suitable location for major retail development.
1.65 In view of the Inspector’s conclusions on the results of the Updated Retail Capacity Study there is an obvious need for the Black Country Centres Study to further review the retail allocations in the emerging Dudley UDP in order to ensure a consistency of approach with the development of any new sub-regional strategic retail planning policy framework for the Black Country.
VIII)TECHNICAL PAPER ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEY OF SHOPPING PATTERNS FOR DMBC, DECEMBER 2002
1.66 As part of the process of preparing the Updated Retail Capacity Study (December 2002) for Dudley MBC, RTP undertook a further household survey of shopping patterns within the Borough of Dudley and adjoining areas in order to inform the preparation of the Study.
1.67 Whilst the survey revealed the clear dominance of Merry Hill as the principal shopping destination for Dudley residents, it nevertheless predates the reopening and impact of the Bull Ring Shopping Centre in Birmingham City Centre, and its impact upon shopping patterns both within the Black Country generally and upon Merry Hill’s continued relative attractiveness within its own catchment area.
IX)SEQUENTIAL SITES APPRAISAL TECHNICAL PAPER, FEBRUARY 2003
1.68 The Council’s Sequential Sites Appraisal Technical Paper of February 2003 set out how the Council, in accordance with PPG6 and Richard Caborn’s statement on need, undertook a detailed analysis of sites in the Borough to accommodate the need for additional retail floorspace across Dudley over the UDP period to 2011.
1.69 The Council assessed the town and district centres within Dudley Borough looking particularly at the opportunities for expansion, improvement or redevelopment (including sites on the edge-of-centres) while also having regard to the need to encourage the most productive use of existing retail floorspace. The site assessments considered whether identified sites or blocks of land were suitable, viable and available for development within a reasonable period of time.
1.70 In summary the Study concluded that:
• the King Street/Vicar Street/Martin Hill Street/Flood Street site emerges as the only sustainable, commercially viable site within Dudley town centre capable of accommodating major comparison retail development;
• to assemble an additional or alternative sites within the town centre would require the major restructuring of Dudley to the detriment of the character of the town centre and existing occupiers and retailers; and
• in the absence of alternative suitable town centre and edge-of-centre sites, the Brierley Hill Regeneration Area represents, with a Public Transport Accessibility Level of 5, the most sequentially appropriate location in the Borough to accommodate further major retail development. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
1.71 In arriving at his recommendations on a range of retail and town centre matters the Dudley UDP Inquiry Inspector accepted the conclusions of the Sequential Sites Appraisal without criticism of either the study’s methodology or conclusions.
X)TECHNICAL PAPER ON BLACK COUNTRY AND SOUTH WEST MIDLANDS REGION TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK UPDATE, DECEMBER 2002
1.72 In Autumn 2002 RTP was appointed by Dudley MBC to prepare updated town centre health check studies for a number of town and city centres in the West Midlands, including Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton. The purpose of this work was to update the findings of the earlier series of health check assessments prepared by Healy and Baker (H&B) for the Council and set in the following reports (both of January 2002):
• The Dudley Borough Town Centres Study.
• The Dudley UDP Review and RPG Review: Town Centre Health Check Study.
1.73 H&B’s brief was to further review the health of each centre and to assess how vulnerable each was to strengthening retail competition elsewhere.
1.74 RTP’s Final Report was published in December 2002. For each of the centres surveyed the Report sets out the position a year after the original H&B work was undertaken.
1.75 In order to provide a measure of relative performance of each of the centres, a benchmarking exercise was employed, using the closest ranked comparable centres from the latest available Management Horizons Centre Rankings Report (2001) to compare trends in movement of indicators of vitality and viability.
1.76 The principle conclusions of the three Health Check studies in relation Dudley and Brierley Hill High Street are summarised below.
Dudley
1.77 In January 2002 H&B concluded that the role of Dudley as a sub-regional centre had been supplanted by the development of the Merry Hill Centre. Consequently H&B considered that retail representation attracted to Dudley is largely convenience or discount orientated. H&B also considered that Dudley was unlikely to recover its former role and status. Accordingly, H&B recommended that the role and function of the centre should be refocused within the Borough as a large district centre, with emphasis upon value retailing, evening entertainment and tourism uses.
1.78 H&B considered that there was some demand for further retail development and identified the Flood Street site as being suitable to accommodate a large foodstore as well as a range of large non-food retail units.
Retail Rentals
H&B established that rental values had stabilised at around £430/485 ZA/sq.m at 2001, which compare to £645 ZA/sq.m which was the peak in the late 1980s. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Over the period of 1985-1995 the rental growth rate was substantially below both the regional and national level.
H&B considered that rental values in Dudley had remained substantially unchanged since 1995.
Using CRE data rents since 1997 have remained static at £538/sqm.
The general trend of static rents over recent years is repeated for Dudley’s benchmark centres of Dorchester and Margate.
Shop rentals remain unchanged from 2001.
Retail Yields
H&B considered that investment yields for Dudley moved in line with national trends between 1985 and 1989. Since 1991, generally yields have hardened to 9 per cent.
The Property Market Report (2002) indicates that yields in Dudley stand at 8.75 per cent, a marginal improvement on yields a year previous.
Yield performance in comparable centres mirrors that in Dudley.
Vacancy Rates
The vacancy rate in 2001 was 19 per cent.
In December 2002 the overall vacancy rate had fallen to 14 per cent, as a percentage of all floorspace. This level of vacancy is above the West Midlands average of 9.9 per cent and the national average of 8.4 per cent.
The majority of vacant units are located outside the defined town centre.
Vacancy rates in the primary and secondary areas were substantially lower than recorded by H&B earlier in the year with the vacancy rate in December 2002, standing at 2.1 per cent as compared to 6.4 per cent in 2001.
1.79 The Health Check Update noted that although there had been only limited changes in retailer representation in Dudley over the previous year outstanding retailer requirements were considered to be stronger in Dudley than in its benchmark centres of Dorchester and Margate.
1.80 H&B concluded that irrespective of future decisions at Brierley Hill there was little prospect of significant comparison retail development occurring in the town over the UDP plan period. Consequently the key issues facing Dudley outside the prime retail area around the Market Place identified were the need to alter the environment, offer and profile in order to appeal to visitors not primarily concerned with shopping. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Brierley Hill High Street
1.81 Brierley Hill High Street continues to provide a localised shopping function. Over the 12 months since the H&B survey there was a significant reduction in shop vacancy, which is indicative of improvement. However apart from the reduction in shop vacancy there had been no new investment in the centre. Although there was evidence that the Council had instigated some improvements, the High Street offered a poor shopping environment. With Zone A rental levels below £20 psf there was no rationale for retailers to invest in their businesses.
XI)A STUDY INTO THE WEST MIDLANDS HIERARCHY OF CENTRES FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS LGA, MAY 2001
1.82 Dudley MBC criticised the final report of the Study into the West Midlands Hierarchy of Centres undertaken in 2000/2001 for the WMLGA by Chesterton and the University of Central England, as referred to in Technical Paper 2, for not being based on robust empirical evidence. As a result many of its conclusions, particularly in relation to the concept of ‘vulnerable centres’ and the impact of future retail expansion at Merry Hill, were considered by the Council to be both flawed and unreliable. It is against this background, and criticisms of the study from other quarters, that the SoS now requires further work to inform an early review of the current RPG (see Technical Paper 4). STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
WALSALL METROPOLITAN BOROUGH COUNCIL
I)WALSALL UNITARY DEVELOPMENT PLAN, ADOPTED JANUARY 1995
1.83 The Walsall Unitary Development Plan (UDP) was adopted in January 1995, thus it predates PPG6, PPG13, Mr Caborn’s need test, and the recently adopted RPG11. The Part 1 Strategy Policy Statement for the UDP’s Regeneration Strategy states (paragraph 2.1) that:
‘ The twin aims of economic revitalisation and urban regeneration are the central concerns of the Council’s planning policies, and underlie all the policies of the Unitary Development Plan. All development proposals will be evaluated against these aims.’
1.84 The remainder of the Strategic Policy Statement emphasises the importance to these aims of environmental improvements, employment land supply and physical infrastructure and it states that the Council will seek to focus action by the public and private sectors in the Priority Areas shown in Figure 2.2, which include Walsall town centre. As part of the strategy the established shopping centres are to be safeguarded and enhanced ‘… by promoting their development and improvement and by carefully controlling out of town shopping development.’ (paragraph 2.15, page 10).
1.85 The Part 1 Strategy Policy Statement for the UDP’s Environment and Amenity section states that town, district and local centres are amongst the priorities for concentrating environmental improvement initiatives, and paragraphs 3.18 to 3.20 emphasise the need to protect and enhance the Borough’s built heritage, its conservation areas and its buildings of special architectural or historic interest.
1.86 The Strategic Policy Statement on Shopping and Centres (paragraphs 5.1 to 5.23) sets out a number of principles, the most important of which are:
encouraging the provision of modern, attractive, comprehensive shopping facilities to meet the needs of all sections of the community (paragraph 5.1);
maintaining and enhancing the vitality and viability of established town, district and local centres (paragraph 5.2);
promoting the role of centres as locations for offices, services and leisure facilities (paragraph 5.3);
ensuring that developments in centres are of an appropriate scale (paragraph 5.4);
making the best use of existing buildings in centres (paragraph 5.5);
pursuing a programme of environmental and transport improvements to enhance the role of established centres as key focal points for shopping, commercial and community activities (paragraph 5.6);
seeking to ensure that large out-of-centre stores are complementary to existing centres (paragraph 5.7); STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
ensuring that Walsall town centre continues to be the main shopping centre not only for the Borough, but for some places further afield (paragraph 5.8); and
encouraging edge-of-centre locations where proposals cannot be accommodated within centres (paragraph 5.20).
1.87 Walsall town centre is also the subject of various Part 2 policies in the UDP. Of particular relevance to the Black Country Centres study are:
Policy TC1, which seeks to promote new development schemes, make the best use of existing buildings and enhance the range of activity in Walsall town centre;
Policy TC2, which identifies three locations within the main shopping area for new shopping development – the Digbeth/Bradford Street, Bus Station/St Paul’s Street, and Town Wharf Phase 1 (Station Street/Marsh Street) sites;
Policy TC3, which identifies four Prime Shopping Zones within the main shopping area, namely Park Street, Saddlers Centre, Old Square and Digbeth, where the predominant use at ground floor level is to be shopping;
Policy TC4, which gives encouragement to office, service, leisure and community uses within the town centre, but outside the main shopping area;
Policy TC29, which identifies six opportunity areas with significant development/regeneration potential, where comprehensive development will be encouraged; and
Polices T30.1 to T30.6, which give more detailed advice for the opportunity areas.
1.88 We consider that the adopted Walsall UDP is not entirely consistent with current national policy guidance in that it does not address matters of need; it does not incorporate the cumulative retail impact test introduced in PPG6 or the Bannertown approach to the assessment of impact, and it does not fully incorporate the sequential approach (see paragraphs 5.7 and 5.17 to 5.21). Nevertheless, there is a strong emphasis on economic revitalisation and urban regeneration and significant emphasis on enhancing Walsall town centre through development at a number of locations in the town centre.
II)WALSALL UNITARY DEVELOPMENT PLAN REVIEW, REVISED DEPOSIT, APRIL 2001
1.89 The Walsall UDP Review was placed on First Deposit in April 2001, and the Revised Deposit was published in March 2002. The Strategic Policy Statement is set out in paragraphs 2.1 to 2.4. This Statement gives emphasis to the interdependent aims of sustainable development, urban regeneration, economic revitalisation, environmental improvements and social inclusion; and it includes as one of its six strategic themes the enhancement of established town, district and local centres for shopping, services, leisure activities and most aspects of community life.
1.90 Policy GP1 concerns the location of development. It emphasises the need to locate all significant generators of travel in locations which are accessible to all and to minimise the need to travel, especially by car. The policy incorporates the sequential approach and it STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
promotes mixed-use developments and the reuse of derelict, vacant and underused land and buildings. Policy GP4 gives encouragement to local regeneration schemes, especially in the AWM Regeneration Zone, SRB and New Deal for Communities areas shown in Figure 2.1 of the Review.
1.91 The Strategic Policy Statement for Environment and Amenity states that ‘Sustainable development and environmental improvement are two of the key aims underlying the Plan’s Strategy’ (paragraph 3.1). Policy ENV10 gives emphasis to environmental improvement initiatives in town, district and local centres; Policy ENV29 seeks to protect buildings of historic or architectural interest; and Policy ENV31 seeks to enhance conservation areas.
1.92 Paragraph 4.6 of the Strategy Policy Statement on Jobs and Prosperity seeks to channel service sector jobs in the retail, leisure and office sectors to town centres and to resist such uses in employment areas away from established centres.
1.93 The Strategic Policy Statement entitled Strengthening Our Centres is very much in line with national policy guidance and with the recently adopted RPG11. It seeks to give positive encouragement to the growth of the retail, service and leisure sectors and to channel this growth to existing centres through the application of the sequential approach, so as to make these facilities accessible to all sections of the community by a choice of means of transport. Paragraphs 5.9 and 5.10 cross-refer to the opportunities for development and investment in existing centres which are identified in Part 2 of the Review.
1.94 Policy S2 establishes the hierarchy of centres within the Borough. The policy identifies Walsall town centre as the sub-regional centre which services the whole of the Borough and some places further afield for comparison shopping, leisure and entertainment functions. Walsall town centre is also recognised for its role in meeting the local needs of adjacent communities for convenience shopping. Policy S2 then identifies five District Centres – Aldridge, Bloxwich, Brownhills, Darlaston and Willenhall – noting their main role as providers of convenience goods, local services and community facilities for their districts. S” notes however that all of the district centres have some importance for comparison shopping.
1.95 Policy S3 requires new developments within or on the edge of existing centres to be appropriate in scale and nature to the size and function of the centre concerned, and it requires sensitive integration with the primary shopping area and other land uses.
1.96 Policy S4 seeks to sustain and enhance the range and quality of shopping, leisure and other town centre uses provided by the existing town and district centres. New development must not be at the expense of the vitality and viability of the centre concerned, or that of other centres. The Inset Plans identify the primary shopping areas where non-retail uses are strictly controlled, but with a mix of uses encouraged elsewhere within the centres including housing, leisure, office, community and service uses. Policy S4 also seeks to promote quality in new development and to further improve the accessibility of the centres by a choice of means of transport.
1.97 Policy S7, which controls edge-of-centre and out-of-centre developments, incorporates all of the six key national policy tests, in line with PPG6.
1.98 The Strategic Policy Statement for Leisure and Community Needs states that the Council will seek to safeguard, improve and expand facilities for entertainment, culture, sport, recreation STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
and community activities and that town, district and local centres are the preferred locations for entertainment and cultural facilities.
1.99 The emerging Review includes a Part 2 chapter for Walsall town centre. Policy WA1 identifies the Primary Shopping Area, within which new retail development will be concentrated, and Policy WA3 encourages a range of office, leisure, community and service uses outside the primary shopping area and on upper floors within it, in line with Policy S8.
1.100 Policy WA7 identifies six development and investment opportunities within the town centre – which broadly correspond with the opportunities identified by Policy TC29 of the adopted UDP – where the development potential is said to be substantial. The supporting text to WA7 highlights two outline planning consents in respect of two of the sites, the first for major retail development of 23,225 sq.m gross in the Lower Hall Lane/Digbeth area, and for major leisure development on 1.3 hectares at Town Wharf (‘Walsall Waterfront). Policies WA8 to WA13 then provide more detailed advice in respect of the six opportunity sites.
1.101 Of particular note is Policy WA10, which states that ‘major comparison goods retail investment in Walsall town centre over the next five to 10 years will be concentrated in Digbeth/Old Square in order to strengthen the position and role of this area within the centre.’
1.102 Policy WA12 gives more detailed advice in respect of the Town Wharf development commitment; it states that ‘...the area, on both sides of the canal, is considered to be the main location in the town centre for substantial leisure development to serve the Borough and surrounding areas’. The Policy states: ‘…examples of uses that would be particularly welcomed by the Council include a cinema, family entertainment centre and an adventure activity centre...Other appropriate uses will include hotel and conference facilities, cultural uses, and office/business uses, a cinema and family entertainment centre….’
III)WALSALL RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY, MAY 2001
1.103 In March 2000 Walsall MBC commissioned Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) to undertake:
a survey of households in Walsall’s overall catchment area to establish current patterns of expenditure for various types of retail goods and leisure visits;
an assessment of capacity and need for further retail and leisure development; and
a planning appraisal of three live planning applications for major retail and leisure development at Digbeth, Brownhills and Burntwood.
1.104 So far as the planning appraisal of the three major schemes is concerned, RTP was required to advise on four matters, as follows:
to what extent does each proposal comply with the requirements of national, regional and local policies?
to what extent do each of the proposals, alone and in combination, pass the retail impact test set out in Section 4 of PPG6? STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
what is the commercial likelihood of the schemes being implemented in the event that planning permission is given for one or more of the proposals?
what is the recommended course of action for the Council from the perspective of land use planning considerations?
1.105 A key input into the Walsall Retail Capacity Study was a comprehensive telephone survey of 2,400 households resident in Walsall’s Overall Catchment Area (OCA), undertaken by Research & Marketing in May 2000. The OCA included the whole of Walsall Borough and parts of Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Cannock Chase and Lichfield. The survey sought to establish current patterns of shopping and leisure visits for the following:
clothes and shoes;
furniture, carpets, DIY goods and white electrical goods;
specialist non-food items such as books, jewellery, photographic goods, toys and sports equipment;
main food and groceries;
secondary food and groceries; and
main locations for visits to cinemas, restaurants, pubs, theatres and other commercial leisure attractions such as ten-pin bowling and bingo centres.
1.106 The final Capacity Study Report (May 2001) presented the findings using both ‘goods based’ and ‘business based’ analysis and calculated residual capacity by taking the mid-point between the ‘goods based’ and ‘business based’ outcomes.
Shopping patterns and expenditure forecasts – comparison and commercial leisure sectors
1.107 The survey revealed an overall comparison sector ‘retention rate’ for Walsall’s OCA of 53.8 per cent – that is, the proportion of comparison expenditure of residents of the OCA which is spent in centres and stores located within the OCA. The residual, known as ‘leakage’, amounted to 46 per cent. RTP noted that a considerable degree of the leakage of comparison expenditure is inevitable in the context of a densely developed Metropolitan area and given the relative proximity of Birmingham, as the regional centre, and given the close proximity to Walsall’s OCA of two sub-regional centres – Wolverhampton and Merry Hill – as well as important town centres such as Sutton Coldfield and West Bromwich.
1.108 The survey confirmed Walsall town centre’s importance as the largest comparison centre within the OCA; it attracted more than five per cent of the comparison expenditure from all survey zones except the Lichfield zone, and had a comparison turnover of some £258.9m. However, in terms of the scale of market share (or ‘penetration’) achieved, the survey found that Walsall was not especially dominant. Only in the five central zones did Walsall manage a market share of over 40 per cent, and the overall share of OCA expenditure attracted to Walsall town centre was only 24 per cent. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
1.109 The second largest comparison retail centre in the OCA was Lichfield, with a 2001 comparison business turnover of £59.9m. However, largely as a consequence of its position towards the north-eastern edge of the OCA, the study found that Lichfield’s influence on overall OCA shopping patterns is limited; in 14 of the 16 survey zones the town’s market share was less than five per cent, and only in two Zones was Lichfield’s market share dominant.
1.110 The third largest study area centre was Cannock, which achieved a comparison business turnover in 2001 of £56.7m. Cannock had the dominant market share in only one Zone, and it drew significant amounts of trade from only two other Zones.
1.111 The local comparison sector market shares achieved by Walsall’s district centres ranged from 5.0 per cent in Willenhall to 14.5 per cent in Brownhills. The survey also showed that retail warehouses attracted approximately 22 per cent of the comparison expenditure of the OCA’s residents, with Axle Tree Way at Wednesbury having the highest turnover. The survey results indicate that some 46 per cent of the comparison expenditure of OCA residents (equivalent to £503.1m of comparison business spending) was flowing to centres outside the OCA. Three centres – Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Sutton Coldfield – accounted for more than half of this outflow.
1.112 The survey also sought information on the use of various leisure facilities and it found that a significant proportion of the households in Walsall’s OCA do not undertake visits to cinemas, theatres or concert halls. RTP concluded that there may be scope to increase participation rates, but that this would depend upon other demand factors – such as cost and accessibility of facilities, cultural development and so on – as well as local supply side provision. The Capacity Study found that Walsall town centre performed quite well in relation to restaurant use (despite the relatively limited restaurant offer for families) and in relation to visits to pubs and bars (following recent developments), but that it did not perform as a cinema or theatre location.
1.113 The research undertaken by Dodona – Cinemagoing 10 – confirmed that the opening of the two multiplex cinemas at the Star Site and at Fiveways resulted in a decline in population per screen in the West Midlands from 20,686 in 1999 to 13,428 at the end of the year 2000; and persons per seat fell from 88 to 58. As a consequence, the West Midlands is now very well provided for compared to cinema screen provision in other metropolitan areas in the UK, except Edinburgh and Glasgow. RTP concluded that the commercial scope for further multiplex provision in the West Midlands metropolitan area is therefore extremely limited and any further scheme may well result in closure of one or more of the older first generation multiplex facilities, and asserted that Walsall town centre is the only possible location – from a land use planning perspective – for a further multiplex in the OCA.
1.114 The Capacity Study also concluded that the New Art Gallery in Walsall town centre is the type of facility which is likely to encourage cultural development, as recognised by the (then) emerging RPG. There is clearly latent consumer demand and a need for a theatre/concert venue in the town centre, although, as RTP noted, such a project is likely to require some public sector funding. The Study recommended that an initiative to deliver a theatre/concert hall – possibly through realising the full potential of the Town Hall – should continue to be pursued, noting that a theatre/concert hall would provide the Borough’s residents with an STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
important leisure and cultural facility and provide a major boost to Walsall as a leisure destination.
1.115 The study also concluded that the New Art Gallery would also assist in bringing forward further leisure investment in the Town Wharf phase two scheme and it stated that this site is an obvious candidate for a multiplex facility and that further restaurant provision should also be encouraged in association with the development of these leisure and entertainment attractions.
1.116 Thus, the study’s overall conclusions in relation to current shopping patterns (comparison and commercial leisure sectors) were that:
there is a distinct shopping hierarchy within the OCA with Walsall town centre serving as the dominant sub-regional centre, supported by the town centres in Cannock and Lichfield, the five district centres in the Walsall MBC area and the various local centres throughout the OCA, but with Walsall town centre and the district centres also serving as local centres in meeting the day to day needs of residents of their immediate catchments;
there is scope to increase the retention of comparison expenditure within Walsall’s OCA and to improve Walsall town centre’s penetration of the outer parts of its catchment;
there is a need to improve Walsall town centre’s performance as a destination for cinema, concert and theatre visits and associated restaurant facilities in that such facilities are an expected component of the kit of parts of a sub-regional centre and Walsall town centre is not performing. However, to change the market will require demand side improvements through local economic development and cultural awareness initiatives, as well as supply side provision.
1.117 The Capacity Study also concluded that the comparison business retention level would increase if further retail development occurs within the town centres of the OCA which is of a sufficient quality to resist the pulling power of the new developments that are occurring elsewhere in the region outside Walsall’s OCA. RTP supported the Digbeth application partly on the basis that the combined effect of the Digbeth and Town Wharf schemes would – before taking account of the competing commitments in Birmingham, Wolverhampton and so on – increase the overall comparison retention rate from 54 per cent to 57 per cent.
1.118 Therefore, in forming its assessment of future capacity, RTP took account of the major schemes outside and inside the OCA in order to help determine the pattern of future expenditure flows.
1.119 RTP then provided its assessment of quantitative capacity within Walsall’s OCA for the periods up to 2006 and 2011, taking account of population change and the real growth, over and above inflation, in per capita spending levels. The critical variable is the overall future retention rate assumption. As a consequence, the Capacity Study presented the findings for three scenarios:
Scenario A – this assumed static market shares, so that the retention rate established for the 2001 base position from the survey of households stays the same in 2006 and 2011. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Scenario B – this scenario envisaged an uplift in the retention rate in the period up to 2006 and a further rise in the retention rate from 2006 to 2011. RTP recommended that this is the scenario which should be the target scenario incorporated into the provisions of the review of the Walsall UDP. The uplift in retention will require new development in appropriate town, district and local centres within the OCA of a quality which will boost the overall attractiveness of the OCA’s retail offer vis-à-vis the competing retail locations elsewhere in the region.
Scenario C – this scenario highlighted the implications of a fall in the OCA’s overall retention rate in the period up to 2006 and with a further fall from 2006 to 2011. RTP noted that such a scenario may arise if the Digbeth development fails to materialise and if other developments in appropriate town centre locations elsewhere within the OCA fail to materialise, or remain substantially unlet. The Capacity Study showed that the key implication of a fall in the retention rate would be a substantial expenditure deficit.
1.120 For the comparison sector, only Scenario B – the planned uplift in retention – produced a positive floorspace requirement up to 2011, over and above existing commitments. This requirement was for approximately 51,000 sq ft. sales area (around 64,000 to 78,000 sq.ft. gross, depending on format). However, even under Scenario B, there was a significant deficit in the short term up to 2006. This means that implementation of the commitments before this time will have some short term impact on existing comparison traders, although both the Digbeth and Town Wharf commitments will produce significant benefits for the overall turnover of Walsall town centre.
1.121 Under Scenarios A and C there were significant deficits in relation to available comparison expenditure for the overall 10 year period up to 2011, with the surpluses arising in the period 2006 to 2011 being insufficient to offset the deficits which occur in the period 2001 to 2006.
1.122 Thus, the overall conclusion was that as a sub-regional town centre, Walsall needs to improve its attractiveness vis-à-vis the competition from elsewhere in the region if it is to improve the overall comparison sector retention level. The Digbeth and Town Wharf Phase 2 schemes will be the main drivers of the target uplift in the comparison sector retention level and they must be given every encouragement for success and protection from developments which are inappropriate in scale and in location. The Capacity Study demonstrated that unless the comparison retention level improved there would be no capacity to support further new development (beyond existing commitments) in the town centres or elsewhere in the medium term without adverse impacts on existing retailers.
1.123 Thus, RTP’s overall recommendations for the comparison sector were as follows:
‘Our first recommendation is that the Digbeth town centre development and Town Wharf Phase 2 should be promoted with full vigour, and identified as key commitments which are central to the overall strategy of the emerging UDP.
Our second recommendation is that the Council should continue to vigorously oppose the live application by London and Cambridge Properties for mixed retail and leisure development at Chasewater Industrial Estate, near Burntwood (application reference 99/01156/OUT). This application is entirely inappropriate in type and scale to the function performed by Burntwood as a district centre. Indeed, STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
we note that the soon-to-be adopted Staffordshire and Stoke on Trent Structure Plan 1996 to 2011 identifies Burntwood in its lowest order category of ‘smaller town centres and urban district centres’.
We consider that the live application at Burntwood contravenes both elements of the development plan for the reasons set out in our letter to Walsall MBC of 16 June 2000 …. We disagree strongly with Staffordshire County Council’s assessment of the Burntwood application in its Committee Report of 18 January 2001; there is little or no appreciation of the requirements of national and regional policy as set out in Section 2 of our report and there is some evidence of a failure on the part of the County Council to understand its own retail strategy.
Moreover, we consider that the extant consents for more limited amounts of retail and leisure development at Burntwood (application references L960657, L960708 and 99/00148/OUT) are in no way determinative in relation to the consideration of the live application (ref: 99/01156/OUT); the evolution of national and regional policy requirements since the decisions were taken on the earlier applications are highly important material considerations which provide very strong grounds for refusal, particularly given the live application’s contravention of the land use and retail and leisure policies of the development plan.
Our third conclusion is that there is no quantitative or qualitative need to plan proactively for further comparison development beyond the existing commitments – which we have taken into account in our quantitative analysis – in the period up to 2006. Our Scenario B quantitative analysis suggests that there may be scope for further comparison development beyond existing commitments after 2006, but only if the Digbeth and Town Wharf Phase 2 developments are implemented and become commercially successful. These two schemes are crucial to the aspiration to achieve an uplift in the retention level.
In the event that the higher retention level under Scenario B is achieved, we consider that all needs in the period up to 2011 can be met on the development and redevelopment opportunities identified in the emerging review of the UDP. The first deposit edition of the review identifies six development opportunity sites within Walsall town centre which are suitable for a range of town centre uses. Similarly, the emerging UDP identifies investment opportunity sites in each of the Borough’s five district centres which are suitable for a range of uses appropriate for district centres, including retail of appropriate scale; and it identifies investment opportunities in 15 of the local centres.
However, if the Burntwood application is allowed, we consider it highly unlikely that the factory outlet centre component of the Digbeth scheme would materialise, since there is no quantitative or qualitative need for two factory outlet centres of sub- regional scale to the north of Birmingham. A permission for the Burntwood application could cause a Scenario C type outcome by deterring the necessary investment in the Digbeth scheme, which in turn would lower the retention level, which in turn would produce a substantial deficit in capacity as comparison expenditure increasingly flows out of Walsall’s OCA to the new commitments outside the OCA. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Thus, whatever retention level is achieved – the higher level Scenario B or the lower level Scenario C – there is no qualitative or quantitative need for any further retail or leisure development opportunities to be identified over and above the existing commitments and the UDP opportunities within and on the edge of existing centres. This leads to our third recommendation which is that any new proposal for out-of- centre development beyond existing commitments is resisted strongly.’
1.124 RTP’s recommendations for the commercial leisure sector were:
‘From a land use planning perspective, and utilising Dodona’s assessment of need, it is clear that Walsall town centre is the only location in the OCA which is acceptable for a multiplex cinema. If a multiplex is allowed anywhere else in the OCA, we consider that the prospects of securing a cinema as part of Town Wharf Phase 2, or elsewhere in the town centre, would be negligible. The investment market will not support two further multiplex cinemas in Walsall’s OCA. Thus, in order to make the cinema as accessible to as wide a range of OCA residents as possible, we recommend that the Council gives strong encouragement to the provision of a multiplex cinema facility in Walsall town centre and that it seeks to resist any proposal for a multiplex in any other location within the OCA, including that part of the OCA in neighbouring local authority areas.
So far as other commercial leisure facilities are concerned, we consider that the development opportunity areas identified in the emerging review of the UDP, which exist within the town centre and within the district and local centres, are the most accessible locations; and that they represent the best prospect for increasing participation rates. The emerging UDP identifies six development and investment opportunities within Walsall town centre, several of which are capable of accommodating a range of leisure and A3 uses; including Town Wharf.
The emerging UDP also identifies further leisure development opportunities within the district and local centres, including the Silver Street site in Brownhills, part of which has an extant consent for leisure uses. The sorts of facilities envisaged at Silver Sheet include a health and fitness centre, bingo hall and pub-restaurants. This mixed housing and leisure scheme is to be welcomed.
Thus, given the opportunities which have been identified in the emerging UDP and given that investment in the leisure sector is finite, we recommend that the opportunities within the existing centres are promoted with vigour and that proposals for out-of-centre commercial leisure facilities such as health and fitness, bowling, bingo and so on should be resisted. The town centre and district centre opportunities exist and the sequential approach requires flexibility on the part of operators and developers to ensure that those opportunities are taken up. We recommend , also, that every encouragement is given to the promotion of further restaurant and pub/bar facilities as an integral part of new leisure developments, so as to further strengthen and diversify the existing centres.’ STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Shopping patterns and expenditure forecasts – convenience sector
1.125 The household survey was used to establish a pattern of convenience sector spending, expressed as market shares for each destination centre or store, for each of the 16 survey zones.
1.126 The survey revealed an overall convenience sector retention rate for Walsall’s OCA of 81 per cent. RTP concluded that, given the relatively good overall retention levels, there was no generalised quantitative or qualitative deficiency in convenience retail provision in the OCA.
1.127 In relation to shopping patterns within the OCA, the Capacity Study demonstrated that Walsall town centre itself was clearly the single dominant centre for convenience retailing, which attracted £113.1m, or 14 per cent, of the overall convenience expenditure of the OCA’s residents. RTP concluded that Walsall performs well as a convenience centre and that it meets a high proportion of local convenience needs.
1.128 The Capacity Study noted that each of Walsall MBC’s district centres is anchored by a large foodstore, except Darlaston, which was significantly under-performing, caused by the closure of the anchor Asda store. RTP emphasised that the need to implement the outstanding commitment in the Darlaston Town Centre Plan for the redevelopment of the Asda store is urgent and its reoccupation is clearly the most pressing, convenience sector need in the study area.
1.129 Willenhall district centre’s market share of its expenditure zone was disappointingly low, and RTP concluded that there is scope to increase Willenhall district centre’s local market share through improvements to the existing convenience offer, so as to reduce the need to travel to more distant centres.
1.130 Thus, the study’s overall conclusions in relation to current shopping patterns (convenience sector) were that:
there is an urgent need for redevelopment in Darlaston district centre and also scope for an improved convenience offer in Willenhall district centre so as to enhance its market share and reduce the need to travel; and that
there is a need to protect and encourage the other district centres in the OCA, given their particularly valuable role as a provider of convenience goods and services.
1.131 RTP adopted the same approach in assessing expenditure capacity in the convenience as in the comparison sector. However, RTP considered that only two scenarios were necessary in the convenience sector:
Scenario A – this assumed static market shares, so that the retention rate established for the 2001 base position from the survey of households stays the same in 2006 and 2011.
Scenario B – this scenario envisaged an uplift in the retention rate in the period up to 2006 and a further rise in the retention rate from 2006 to 2011. RTP recommended that this is the scenario which should be the target scenario incorporated into the provisions of the review of the Walsall UDP, given the desire to implement the national and regional STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
policy emphasis of reducing the need to travel by meeting local convenience needs in district and local centres.
1.132 For the convenience sector, RTP considered the constant market share Scenario A to be an unlikely outcome given the firm commitment to redevelop the Asda store in Darlaston and to expand the Asda at Bloxwich. Scenario B – the planned uplift in retention – produced a negative floorspace requirement up to 2011, over and above existing commitments, of minus 29,000 sq ft. sales area. RTP therefore concluded that further new convenience stores, beyond existing commitments, which are of a medium to large scale – supermarkets and superstores – could not be accommodated by expenditure growth and would cause real negative impacts on existing traders.
1.133 The Capacity Study showed that three of Walsall’s district centres – Brownhills, Aldridge and Bloxwich – already achieved market shares in excess of 40 per cent, which RTP considered to be the minimum share required for a district centre to fulfil its role well. Accordingly, given the macro position of expenditure deficit, RTP considered that there was no capacity for further supermarkets in Brownhills or in Aldridge, although the extension of Asda in Bloxwich should be supported as a means of increasing the local market share.
1.134 RTP asserted that for Willenhall to achieve a local convenience market share of 40 per cent, would require a significant extension to the Somerfield store and an improvement in the retail offer provided by the specialist independents. RTP advocated that every encouragement be given to such a strategy, in order to allow for future local needs to be met.
1.135 So far as Darlaston was concerned, RTP considered that there was sufficient capacity to support the reoccupation of the redeveloped Asda store in order for the district centre to achieve a 40 per cent local market share.
1.136 Thus, RTP’s overall recommendations for the convenience sector were as follows:
‘Our first recommendation for the convenience sector is that the clear cut first priority is to secure a new large scale foodstore to anchor Darlaston District Centre and to meet the local community’s need for an accessible foodstore. At present Darlaston significantly under-performs in relation to the Borough’s other district centres and the new foodstore is required to underpin its functions in all retail and service sectors.
Our second recommendation is that there is a need to improve the performance of Willenhall in the convenience sector. This will require a larger anchor foodstore, preferably via an extension of Somerfield or through the attraction of a new operator who is able to provide a large modern store which is able to boost the district centre’s overall convenience retention level, and not a small discount operator which would merely be competing with Somerfield. At present, Willenhall’s penetration of its local area is significantly below that achieved by Bloxwich, Aldridge and Brownhills. Even allowing for the proximity of Darlaston and the Somerfield store at New Invention, we consider that there is scope to improve Willenhall’s performance in meeting local needs, so as to reduce the demand for car travel. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Our third recommendation is that every encouragement should be given to proposals to extend existing anchor foodstores in the Borough’s district centres, particularly the Asda at Bloxwich.
Our quantitative assessment has shown that – apart form the Darlaston redevelopment proposal and the need to improve provision in Willenhall – there is no quantitative case for any new large scale foodstore up to 2011. If a new store is to be accommodated, then it should be encouraged to locate within Walsall town centre, so as to be as accessible as possible by public transport to as many people as possible. The priorities, however, are first Darlaston and then Willenhall.
Our fourth recommendation is that any new proposal for supermarkets or superstores in out-of-centre locations should be resisted strongly. There is absolutely no quantitative or qualitative case for further out-of-centre foodstore development of any scale.
Our fifth recommendation is that local needs should be met in accordance with the bottom-up approach advocated by Beverley Hughes... There is a range of opportunities in the Borough’s 35 local centres and occasionally there will be a need for small stores in deprived residential areas which have no local centre within reasonable walking distance, in accordance with the provisions of Policy S6 of the emerging review of the UDP. The focus should be on new stores of up to around 300 sq. metres specifically targeted at meeting local needs, especially where the local centre is located in a ward which scores badly in relation to the DETR’s Index of Deprivation.‘
IV)TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK STUDY, HEALY AND BAKER, JANUARY 2002
1.137 Healy and Baker’s January 2002 study, referred to in Section 1, found that Walsall performs a sub-regional role and is a vibrant centre with strong convenience and comparison representation. Walsall’s ranking against other centres had improved over the previous 5 years. The centre had below-average retail prospects, above-average investment prospects and some rental growth potential within the prime area. Significant retail developments were also in the pipeline.
1.138 H&B concluded that Walsall Council needed to take a pro-active approach to ensure that the centre remained competitive in the future in order to compete effectively against other improving towns.
Rental Levels
• Over the period 1993 to 2002 Walsall experienced 26 per cent rental growth, which is below the West Midlands average for the same period of 49 per cent.
• In 2002, prime retail property rents in Walsall were at £1,292 sq m, which almost exactly matches the West Midlands average of £1,254 sq m. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 3: REVIEW OF EXISTING DOCUMENTATION
Retail Yields
In 2001 H&B considered prime yields to be 7.75 per cent representing a 2 per cent softening on yields recorded in December 1995 of 5.75 per cent.
In December 2002 agents were reporting retail yields of 6.5 per cent.
Vacancy Rates
In December 2002 the overall vacancy rate in Walsall town centre was 6.6 per cent, and below the regional average of 9.9 per cent and the national average of 8.4 per cent, indicating a healthy demand for retail floorspace.
Within the primary frontages the vacancy rate was only 3.9 per cent, with the comparable figure for secondary frontages standing at 2.7 per cent.
Since January and December 2002 vacancy rates have remained relatively stable.
1.139 H&B concluded that Walsall Council needed to take a pro-active approach to ensure that the centre remained competitive in the future in order to compete effectively against other improving towns.
1.140 Demand from retailers for representation in Walsall remains strong with requirements from a wide range of retailers, including both high quality and discount store operators being recorded.
1.141 Since 1999 there has been considerable retail development including Phase 2 of the Town Wharf scheme, which has contributed to broadening the range and quality of retail provision in Walsall. H&B judged that the town’s position would be further strengthened with the completion of both the Shannons Mill factory outlet centre and the Old Square shopping centre refurbishment, and as a result Walsall would continue to remain a vibrant and viable centre.
1.142 In commenting on the possible impact of further retail development at Brierley Hill as envisaged by the Dudley UDP, H&B considered that there would be no significant impact on the future prospects of Walsall for the implementation of currently committed schemes. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 4: NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
THE REQUIREMENTS OF NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY
THE IMPORTANT PRINCIPLES
1.1 The national policy context, in so far as it relates to town centres and the location of new retail and leisure developments, is set, in the main, by:
Planning Policy Guidance (PPG) Notes 1, 6, 11 and 13;
the Transport and Sustainability (A Better Quality of Life) White Papers;
the Government’s Responses to the Environment, Transport and Regional Affairs Committees of July 1997 and May 2000;
the parliamentary answer of Mr Caborn (the then Planning Minister) of 11 February 1999; and
the parliamentary statement of the Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) of 10 April 2003.
1.2 On 15 December 2003, the Government published draft Planning Policy Statement 6 (draft PPS6) for consultation. The consultation period ended on 15 March 2004, and only limited weight can be given to the draft in its present form. Nevertheless, draft PPS6 is a material consideration and we outline the key proposed changes to existing guidance at the end of this section.
1.3 In our assessment, the combined effect of the already approved national policy documents and statements has been to establish 15 important principles, as follows:
i) the objective to promote, sustain and enhance the vitality and viability of existing town, district and local centres as part of a package of initiatives to promote sustainable development (PPGs 1, 6 and 13 and A Better Quality of Life);
ii) the objective ‘to focus development, especially retail development, in locations where the proximity of businesses facilitates competition from which all consumers are able to benefit and maximises the opportunity to use means of transport other than the car’ (paragraph 1.1 of Revised PPG6);
iii) the objective ‘to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector’ (paragraph 1.1 of Revised PPG6);
iv) the objective ‘to ensure the availability of a wide range of shops, employment, services and facilities to which people have easy access by a choice of means of transport’ (paragraph 1.1 of Revised PPG6);
v) the need for structure plans and UDP Part Ones to establish a hierarchy of centres and a strategy for the location of employment, shopping, leisure, hospital, education and other uses which generate many trips, so as to identify the preferred locations for major retail and leisure investment in particular and ensure that all significant generators of travel are well served by public transport (paragraphs 1.4 to 1.7 of PPG6 and paragraph 35 of PPG13); STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
vi) the need to adopt a plan-led approach to the promotion of all types of new development which generate many trips, so as to ensure that they are well served by public transport (paragraphs 1.4 to 1.7 of Revised PPG6 and paragraph 20 of PPG13);
vii) the requirement to adopt a sequential approach to selecting sites for new retail and leisure development and other town centre uses – in areas where there is a need and capacity for such development – which is an approach that requires flexibility on the part of local planning authorities, developers and retailers (paragraphs 1.8 to 1.17 of Revised PPG6 and paragraphs 20 and 30 of PPG13);
viii) the need to assess the principal of ‘severability’ in applying the sequential approach, so as to investigate whether it is possible to disaggregate retail park and leisure development proposals into their constituent parts in seeking to fit them into existing town, district and local centres (the Government’s response to the fourth report from the House of Commons Select Committee on the Environment, July 1997, paragraph 27 of PPG13 and the DPM’s Parliamentary Statement of 10 April 2003);
ix) the desire to reduce overall travel and the demand for car travel in particular (PPG13 and A Better Quality of Life);
x) the presumption to resist applications for retail development on land designated for other uses in an approved development plan, especially where retail development can be shown to have the effect of limiting the range and quality of sites that would be available for such uses (paragraph 3.23 of Revised PPG6);
xi) the desire to promote mixed-use developments, especially within town centres, and maximise the use of previously developed brownfield land (paragraphs 8 to 12 of PPG1 [Revised]);
xii) the need to improve access to leisure, retail and other services for residents of deprived areas as part of the drive to promote social inclusion (A Better Quality of Life – the first of the White Paper’s four core objectives and paragraphs 1.8, 7.29 and 7.33 of the White Paper);
xiii) the need to avoid using high value retail development simply as a mechanism to bring vacant or derelict sites into development unless such retail development would help to support the vitality and viability of existing centres (paragraph 3.24 of PPG6);
xiv) the onus on developers and retailers who are proposing out-of-centre development to demonstrate that a majority of their goods cannot be sold from town centre stores (the DPM’s Parliamentary Statement of 10 April 2003); and
xv) the requirement for development that would serve a wide catchment area to be located in a centre that serves a similar catchment area (the DPM’s Parliamentary Statement of 10 April 2003).
1.4 These represent a rigorous set of principles which confirm the preference for town centre locations for all types of new development which generate many trips. However, it is important to emphasise that the Government does not seek to exert a moratorium on all out- of-centre development and it acknowledges – in paragraph 3.3 of PPG6 and reaffirmed in the STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
DPM’s statement of 10 April 2003 – that ‘some types of retailing, such as large stores selling bulky goods, may not be able to find suitable sites either in or on the edge of town centres’. Thus, retail proposals which are located ‘outside’1 existing town centres face six key national policy tests:
the ‘need’ test introduced by Mr Caborn in February 1999;
the sequential approach, first introduced by PPG13 in 1994 and confirmed by PPG6 in 1996;
the likely impact on the development plan’s strategy;
the likely impact on the vitality and viability of existing centres;
accessibility by a choice of means of transport, including pedestrian and bicycle modes; and
the likely effect on travel and car use.
1.5 The areas which have fuelled most debate relate to the interpretation of the need test, the sequential test and the retail impact test.
THE NEED TEST
1.6 Mr Caborn’s parliamentary answer of 11 February 1999 introduces the need test for all edge- of-centre and out-of-centre applications which are not in accord with an up-to-date development plan, which itself must be consistent with national policy guidance. Mr Caborn’s parliamentary answer gives the decision maker considerable latitude in formulating the factors which may show need. However, the DPM’s more recent parliamentary statement of 10 April 2003 has made it clear:
i) first that he ‘…places greater weight on quantitative need for new retail provision to be defined in terms of additional floorspace for the types of retail development distinguished in PPG6, which are comparison and convenience shopping’; and
ii) second that ‘regeneration’ and ‘net additional employment creation’ are not indicators of retail need, although they may be material considerations.
1.7 Nevertheless, the 10 April 2003 statement accepts that there remains a qualitative dimension to the need test and, in our assessment, it remains open to the applicant to identify such factors as:
• geographical deficiencies in existing provision;
• accessibility of the proposed development to low income areas as a means of promoting social inclusion; and
• complementarity of the development proposals with other Council initiatives.
1 ‘Outside’ meaning ‘not within’ and therefore incorporating both ‘edge-of-centre’ and ‘out-of-centre’ proposals. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
THE SEQUENTIAL TEST
1.8 The sequential approach is explained in paragraphs 1.8 to 1.17 of PPG6. Having set the requirement to establish a need in the development plan preparation process (paragraph 1.10), PPG6 proceeds to advise that:
‘Adopting a sequential approach means that first preference should be for town centre sites, where suitable sites or buildings suitable for conversion are available, followed by edge-of-centre sites, district and local centres and only then out-of- centre sites in locations that are accessible by a choice of means of transport.’ (paragraph 1.11)
1.9 In our assessment the words ‘edge-of-centre sites’ in paragraph 1.11 of PPG6 can only mean ‘edge of town centre sites’ and the words ‘district and local centres’ can only mean ‘sites within district and within local centres’. Thus, the sequential preference order is:
i) within a town centre;
ii) edge of a town centre;
iii) within a district/local centre; and
iv) out-of-centre locations which are accessible by a choice of means of transport.
1.10 PPG6 continues (paragraph 1.12) with the advice that:
‘The Government recognises that the approach requires flexibility and realism from local planning authorities, developers and retailers. Developers and retailers will need to be more flexible about the format, design and scale of the development, and the amount of car parking, tailoring these to fit the local circumstances. Local planning authorities should be sensitive to the needs of retailers and other town centre businesses and identify, in consultation with the private sector, sites that are suitable, viable for the proposed use and likely to become available within a reasonable period of time.’
1.11 There has been much debate on three aspects of the sequential test, as follows:
i) the degree of flexibility required from retailers and developers, which has crystallised into the ‘format driven’ versus ‘class of goods’ approaches to the sequential test, incorporating the disaggregation sub-topic;
ii) the appropriate geographical area for conducting the search for sequentially preferable opportunities; and
iii) how the sequential test should be applied in circumstances where a town centre opportunity(ies) exists, but where development of such sites will not absorb all of the expenditure capacity which is projected to arise.
1.12 We discuss each aspect in turn. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
CLASS OF GOODS VERSUS FORMAT DRIVEN APPROACHES
1.13 Paragraphs 3.3, 3.6, 3.7 and Annex A of PPG6 endorse the concept of ‘retail warehouse parks’ and indicate the then Government’s June 1996 acknowledgement that:
‘Some types of retailing, such as large stores selling bulky goods, may not be able to find suitable sites either in or on the edge of town centre. In such cases, the local planning authorities should still seek to ensure that such developments are located where they will be easily accessible by a choice of means of transport’ (paragraph 3.3 of PPG6).
1.14 However, it was clear from Mr Caborn’s speech of 5 November 1998 that the interpretation of policy was evolving; he stated that there was nothing special about retail warehouse parks or factory outlet centres and that they were not exempt from the normal policy tests, in these terms:
‘Another retail format that we will wish to scrutinise is retail warehouse parks. The main argument given for them has been for selling bulky goods that need to be taken away by car. In practice, many such retail warehouses either do not sell ‘bulky goods’ or, if they do, they are not taken away by car.
Few people drive away with furniture or white goods. Firms may prefer larger showrooms, but in practice they could sell from town centre or edge-of-centre locations.
We have challenged the need for the retail warehouse park format.
We have made clear that the sequential approach applies to the constituent parts, not whether a more central site can be found for the whole development. We expect such developments to be more flexible, about scale, format, design and car parking. We expect them to try to fit into existing centres.
Such developments are not exempted from the normal tests – there is nothing special about them.
Likewise, there is nothing special about factory outlet centres in planning terms. They are no more than a collection of shops selling comparison goods which seem to want to avoid existing centres, but want to serve a regional market.
There is absolutely no reason why the stores in such centres could not operate in the High Street – apart from the desire to avoid competition. We wish to encourage competition – we want to see these stores in town centres.
This may put a question mark over the factory outlet centre format in so far as it seeks out-of-centre locations.’
1.15 Matters crystallised further with the publication of the Government’s May 2000 Response to the Environment, Transport and Regional Affairs Committee: Second Report, which confirmed (paragraphs 6 & 7) that the application of the sequential test should be: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
• via ‘the class of goods approach, where the key question is whether there is any reason why such goods cannot be sold from town centres’; and
• not via ‘the format-driven approach, where the developer has a preferred format, which, in their view, does not fit into town centres and should be exempted from the policy.’
1.16 Part of the Government’s rationale in its support for the ‘class of goods’ approach is that many items sold in retail parks are not bulky and, even if they are, they are not always taken away by the customer.
1.17 There appears to be some tension, therefore, between the Government’s ‘class of goods’ approach to the sequential test and the provisions of paragraphs 3.3, 3.6, 3.7 and Annex A of PPG6 in that, in our opinion, almost all goods are capable of being sold in town centres. Indeed, the DPM’s Parliamentary Statement of 10 April 2003 acknowledges that ‘…there is increasing evidence of differences in interpretation’. He reaffirms the ‘class of goods’ approach set out in the May 2000 Response and he states that ‘a retailing format that can only be provided at an out-of-town2 location is not regarded as meeting the requirements of the policy’ (our emphasis). In seeking to channel more development into town centres, he goes on to call for ‘…more efficient design and layout, greater use of multi-storey developments, more efficient car parking provision, mixed-used development and opportunities for home delivery services’.
1.18 The DPM’s parliamentary statement proceeds to discuss the issue of ‘bulky goods’. He refers to the aforementioned provisions of PPG6, regarding the legitimacy of the retail warehouse format, but he does not take the opportunity to say that policy has moved on. Nevertheless, he then concludes that:
‘The First Secretary of State considers that it rests with developers and retailers to demonstrate that a majority of their goods cannot be sold from town centre stores’. He does not consider that developments involving the sale of bulky goods are exempted from meeting the policy tests in PPG6 and subsequent clarifications.’
1.19 We consider that the guidance on the ‘class of goods’ approach remains less than clear cut. The issue has been debated in a High Court judgment of 23 April 2002 (J J Gallagher versus Secretary of State for Transport, Local Government and the Regions and Gateshead Metropolitan Borough Council) in which the judge concluded (paragraph 4.8) that:
‘Adopting the class of goods approach to the sequential test clearly does not render immaterial this particular consideration [that is demand for large retail warehouses on the part of a sector of the retail market], which is expressly recognised in paragraph 3.3 of PPG6’.
1.20 Thus, the Court has held that the demand for large retail warehouses is capable of being a material consideration; the issue for the decision maker is how much weight to give it, which in turn will reflect the scale and urgency of the need which is identified and the extent to which the application proposal reflects the needs of the town it seeks to serve and the needs
2 This statement does not greatly assist in that many retail parks have been located in edge-of-centre locations. Moreover, Annex A of PPG6 contains different definitions for ‘out-of-centre’ and ‘out-of-town’. We infer that the SoS meant to say ‘out-of-centre’. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
of named prospective occupiers, who must nevertheless have demonstrated the necessary level of flexibility. For speculative schemes, we consider that little weight should be given to assertion of demand for the large retail warehouse format. More weight can be given where proposals relate to the demands of named specific occupiers, as reflected in our analysis of draft PPS6 at the end of this section.
DISAGGREGATION
1.21 The DPM’s parliamentary statement of 10 April 2003 also clarified the principle of ‘disaggregation’. He made it clear that the need to consider ‘disaggregation’ applies ‘where development consists of defined elements, such as a retail warehouse park, or a grouping of retail or leisure uses’. We therefore infer that he does not require an individual retailer to consider the disaggregation of components of its individual store, although such a retailer would clearly have to demonstrate flexibility in relation to format, design, scale and the amount of car parking (as confirmed by paragraph 3.18 of draft PPS6). Thus, the principle of disaggregation applies only to out-of-centre developments consisting of several elements – such as a retail warehouse park or a grouping of retail and leisure uses – for which the appropriate test is whether the individual elements of the scheme, rather than the scheme as a whole, can be accommodated on more central sites.
THE APPROPRIATE GEOGRAPHICAL AREA OF SEARCH
1.22 Mr Caborn’s parliamentary reply of 11 February 1999 makes it clear that:
‘In applying the sequential approach, the relevant centres in which to search for sites will depend on the nature and scale of the proposed development and catchment that the development seeks to serve. The scale of such proposals should also be appropriately related to the centre – whether town, district or local – the development seeks to serve’.
1.23 The DPM’s 10 April 2003 statement cross refers to Mr Caborn, but he adds that:
‘The First Secretary of State therefore wishes to make it clear that development that would serve a wide catchment should be located in a centre that serves a similar catchment area’.
1.24 However, we consider that the DPM’s statement does not make it clear, absolutely, as to how developers and local authorities should proceed in applying the test of disaggregation – for example, if a retail park is to be disaggregated, with separate components to be located in different town centres, would it serve the same catchment area as the undisaggregated proposal and, if not, does this matter? Conversely, is it fair to ask a developer who is seeking to promote a retail park to serve a catchment area equivalent to that of a large town centre to disaggregate and locate different components in smaller town centres, or does such a developer confine the sequential search to large town centres, with assessment of the scope for disaggregation confined to sites within the same large town centre? Again the advice is less than clear cut.
1.25 As a separate point in relation to the geographical area of search, we would emphasise the First Secretary of State’s decision of November 2003 to grant consent for an IKEA store at Edmonton, London. In his decision, he made it clear that applicants should compare and STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
contrast the relative merits of out-of-centre sites, with respect to public transport accessibility, in the circumstances where it can be demonstrated that there are no sites within, or on the edge of, existing centres which are suitable, available and viable to meet identified needs.
WHERE QUANTITATIVE NEED EXCEEDS THE CAPACITY OF SEQUENTIALLY PREFERABLE SITES
1.26 The third key issue is how to apply the sequential test in circumstances where quantitative need, or expenditure capacity, exceeds, or is projected to exceed, the turnover requirements of the sequentially preferable opportunities which will be available within a reasonable period of time. No explicit advice has been given on this matter in PPG6, or in the two clarifications of February 1999 and April 2003, or indeed in draft PPS6. Nevertheless, we infer – under the scenario of excess expenditure capacity – that the Government would prefer the town centre opportunities to be developed first, if they pass the suitability, availability and viability tests, and that the promoters of schemes outside town centres will need to wait until all town centre opportunities which are suitable, available and viable, are exhausted.
1.27 We accept, however, that what constitutes a ‘reasonable period of time’ for the purposes of PPG6’s paragraph 1.12 availability test will depend on the urgency of the identified needs and that the time period is likely to be short in circumstances where quantitative need substantially exceeds the capacity of the sequentially preferable opportunities.
THE RETAIL IMPACT TEST
1.28 The Court of Appeal has held – in the October 1998 case of Bannertown Developments Limited versus the Secretary of State for the Environment – that:
i) a refusal on the trade impact ground is sound if there is a ‘real risk’ of a proposal causing damage to the vitality and viability of a town centre – the Secretary of State does not need to come to a firm conclusion that the application proposal ‘would’ cause harm to the town centre or, indeed, that such harm was likely on ‘the balance of probabilities’; he merely needs to decide that there is a ‘real risk’ of such harm; and it confirms that
ii) paragraph 40 of PPG1 (Revised) takes away the presumption in favour of development which had previously been in place under the provisions of paragraph 15 of the earlier version of PPG1.
CONCLUSIONS ON EXISTING POLICY GUIDANCE
1.29 The Government has a firm preference for town centre locations for all types of new development which generate many trips. Nevertheless, the Government recognises that some types of retailing may not be able to find suitable sites either in or on the edge of town centres. The demand for the retail warehouse format has been held by the High Court to be a material consideration and such large format developments will be acceptable in edge and out-of-centre locations if the six national policy tests are met, which include an assessment of whether the proposal would undermine the strategy in the development plan.
1.30 However, in applying the test of need, we consider that little weight should be given to assertions of demand for large format stores, when considering speculative applications. Moreover, when applying the sequential test, we consider that all town centre opportunities STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
that pass the suitable, available and viable tests must be exhausted before consideration can be given to proposals located outside town centres, even in circumstances where quantitative need exceeds, or is projected to exceed, the turnover requirements of the sequentially preferable opportunities.
DRAFT PPS6 AND LIKELY IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE POLICY
1.31 Draft PPS6 confirms that the Government’s key objective is to promote vital and viable town centres by planning for their growth and focussing new development and a wide range of services within them. The draft guidance also confirms the Government’s objectives to enhance consumer choice, support efficient, competitive and innovative retail and leisure sectors and to improve accessibility by a choice of means of transport. Reference is also made to the Government’s wider policy aims of promoting social inclusion, regenerating deprived areas, promoting economic growth, delivering more sustainable patterns of development and promoting good design.
1.32 However, if approved, the draft guidance would have substantial implications for the preparation of regional spatial strategies and development plans (Local Development Frameworks) and for the operation of development control. The policies are to apply to the full range of town centre uses including retail, commercial leisure, commercial and public offices, arts and tourism facilities, community facilities and housing as part of mixed-use multi-storey developments.
1.33 The key changes in emphasis for the forward planning system are:
i) a much more proactive approach to the promotion of the expansion of town centres so as to ensure that future needs are met within the expanded town centres and, where appropriate, a proactive approach to the management of decline; and
ii) the need to establish a hierarchy of centres in each region and sub-region with any change in the role and function of centres to be secured as part of the preparation of regional spatial strategies and through preparation of the development plans, rather than through individual applications.
1.34 The more detailed changes in emphasis which are likely to affect the forward planning system if draft PPS6 is approved are:
i) the need to assemble edge-of-centre sites for larger stores where need is identified (paragraph 2.6);
ii) the need to promote higher density, mixed-use multi-storey development (paragraph 2.5);
iii) the need to encourage a wider range of services and land uses for centres in decline (paragraph 2.6);
iv) the need to avoid over-concentration of growth in the highest level centres (paragraph 2.7); STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
v) the need for regional spatial strategies to make clear strategic choices as to where growth is to be encouraged and decline managed (paragraph 2.11);
vi) the need to assess the quantitative need for additional floorspace for retail, leisure and office uses over the plan period and for five year periods within it, and the capacity of existing centres to accommodate additional development (paragraph 2.11, but note inconsistency with advice given in paragraph 3.9 in respect of the development control system);
vii) the need to improve public transport to existing out-of-centre facilities, but not as a justification for their extension (paragraph 2.12);
viii) the need for development plans to set out the roles of different centres and explain how each centre will contribute to the local authority’s overall vision for its area (paragraph 2.13);
ix) the need for development plans to encourage a diversification of uses in the town centre as a whole and to promote positive management of the evening economy, perhaps identifying distinct quarters where the evening economy is to be concentrated (paragraph 2.18 and 2.19);
x) the need for development plans to include policies which guide the appropriate scale of development to be encouraged in the different types of town centres, perhaps setting upper limits for the scale of developments that will be allowed in different types of centres (paragraphs 2.33 to 2.35);
xi) the need for plans to positively allocate sufficient sites within and at the edge of town centres so as to meet anticipated demand for the next five years, irrespective of whether such sites are currently available and anticipating the use of CPO powers (paragraph 2.44); and
xii) the need to promote a more balanced network of centres by strengthening local centres through preparation of local strategies to remedy deficiencies in local shipping (paragraph 2.47).
1.35 So far as the development control system is concerned, the main changes which would be brought about if draft PPS6 is approved are:
i) the requirement to show that development which is located within an existing centre is of an appropriate scale (paragraph 3.7);
ii) the requirement to apply a goods based approach to the assessment of quantitative need and not a business based approach (paragraph 3.9);
iii) confirmation that the test of disaggregation should not apply to individual retailers (paragraph 3.18);
iv) the requirement to assess the potential impact of significant town centre development on other town centres (paragraph 3.21); and STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
v) a change in policy so as to remove the requirement to apply the sequential test to proposed extensions, although the test of accessibility will still apply (paragraph 3.31).
1.36 It seems clear, therefore, that the Black Country authorities’ development plans should anticipate a requirement for a much more proactive approach to the expansion of their main centres, improvements to the range of services offered in local centres and managed decline of those centres which can no longer realistically hold their place in the retail hierarchy. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
WEST MIDLANDS REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDANCE AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY
A STUDY INTO THE WEST MIDLANDS HIERARCHY OF CENTRES FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS LGA, MAY 2001
1.37 Chesterton, in association with the University of Central England, were commissioned by the West Midlands LGA in November 2000, to explore whether or not a ‘hierarchy of centres’ is a valid vehicle for guiding the future location of retail and associated town centre development within the West Midlands. It was intended that the Study, sponsored by the Government Office of the West Midlands, would inform the review of RPG for The West Midlands (RPG11) and assist in the development of policy to guide the management and development of the region’s network of centres.
1.38 Chesterton’s final report, published in May 2001, put forward a number of policy recommendations to be considered as part of the development of regional planning policy guidance. The key policy recommendations were that:
there is a strong case for avoiding a prescriptive hierarchy of established centres within Regional Policy;
regional policy should acknowledge the overall importance of Birmingham City Centre as both a regional capital as well as a major international destination;
in order to facilitate the regeneration of centres, at a regional level all major established centres should be treated equally and not recorded in any form of rank or hierarchy. In addition to Birmingham City Centre, a further 23 centres were identified by Chesterton as constituting the ‘network of centres in the region’ including, within the Black Country, Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton;
taking account of sustainability considerations, the ’network of centres’ identified should be the focus for new major town centre development, including retailing, leisure, offices, and other uses which attract large numbers of people;
vulnerable centres within the sphere of Merry Hill should be targeted for quantitative and qualitative improvements;
the development of a Regional Capacity Assessment for future retail or leisure development should not be considered, as such a ‘trend based’ mechanistic approach would be of limited value at the regional level; and
town and city centre strategies should be prepared to guide future public and private sector investment in town centres, which recognise both the importance of town centre management and the needs of the socially excluded.
1.39 Many of Chesterton’s policy recommendations, including the identification of a network of centres as the focus for future development within the West Midlands, were adopted and form the basis of the retail policies now set out in the recently adopted RPG11. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR THE WEST MIDLANDS, ODPM, JUNE 2004
INTRODUCTION
1.40 The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) unveiled the new Regional Planning Guidance for the West Midlands (RPG11) on 16 June 2004. RPG11 will provide the framework to guide planning at the regional level until 2021.
1.41 Whilst many of its policy recommendations form the basis of RPG11, the Chesterton Report was heavily criticised from a number of quarters for failing to provide adequate advice on the location, nature and scale of future retail and leisure development to be accommodated within the Region over the period of RPG. Indeed RPG11 acknowledges (paragraph 1.31) that the Guidance is at present insufficiently regionally specific in places.
1.42 It is against this background that the Secretary of State (SoS) now requires that the Regional Planning Body (RPB) should undertake further work to inform an early review of RPG11 to identify where major new retail, leisure and office development should be focused in order to achieve the balanced network of centres. The Black Country Centres study is an important part of this ongoing work, the aim being to advise on a broad range of issues that are not elaborated upon in RPG11 including regeneration priorities, the strategic role of town centres and Merry Hill, and town centre improvements.
Overview
1.43 It should be appreciated at the outset that RPG11 proposes a fundamental shift in policy direction compared to that set out in the precursor 1998 Guidance. The 1998 version sought to accommodate out-migration from the metropolitan area to towns within the surrounding zone, referred to as the Central Crescent and including the towns of Warwick/Leamington, Stratford, Worcester, Kidderminster/Stourport, Bridgnorth, Telford, Stafford, Lichfield and Tamworth. The commonly held view is that this approach has underperformed on regenerating urban and remoter rural areas, providing affordable housing, and promoting development in the north and west of the Region. In particular, there is a growing concern that the continuing decentralisation of population from the West Midlands and North Staffordshire and Coventry conurbations is threatening the economic, social and physical environment of the Region. The replacement RPG11 therefore seeks to re-weight the balance in favour of the major urban areas by seeking a step change in investment and regeneration of the urban areas.
1.44 The long-term vision for the West Midlands Region is defined in Chapter 2 of RPG11, within the Government’s overarching aim of achieving sustainable development, as set out below:
‘ The overall vision for the West Midlands is one of an economically successful, outward looking and adaptable Region, which is rich in culture and environment, where all people, working together, are able to meet their aspirations and needs without prejudicing the quality of life of future generations.’
1.45 RPG11 identifies the following four major challenges for the Region:
• urban renaissance – developing the major urban areas in such a way that they reverse the decentralisation of jobs and people from the major urban areas; STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
• rural renaissance – addressing more effectively the major changes which are challenging the traditional roles of rural areas and the countryside;
• diversifying and modernising the Region’s economy, reversing the relative decline in the region’s economy; and
• modernising the transport infrastructure of the West Midlands to support the sustainable development of the Region.
1.46 We outline below the main land use policies proposed by RPG11 to meet the two ‘challenges’ that are of particular relevance to the Black Country Centres study – namely ‘urban renaissance’ and ‘diversifying and modernising the Region’s economy’.
URBAN RENAISSANCE
1.47 RPG11 identifies four major urban areas (MUAs) within the Region which are to be the main focus of urban renaissance and the regional priority for development and investment. The MUAs are the major economic driver and source of employment opportunities for the Region and contain over half its population. The central aim of the RPG is to reverse decentralisation from these areas to the more rural parts of the Region. The four MUAs, and the role of each as envisaged by RPG, is set out below:
• Birmingham – strengthening its role as the regional capital with emerging world city status;
• the Black Country – continuing its economic, physical and environmental renewal focused around improved infrastructure and the regeneration of town and city centres (including Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton) in order to create modern and sustainable communities;
• Coventry – continuing to build upon its reputation as a forward looking City, which along with Solihull and Warwickshire, can help create an important growth engine for the Region with links to the growing parts of the South East and East Midlands regions; and
• North Staffordshire – building upon its traditional strengths of ceramics and engineering but realising its potential as an accessible location with good links to the East Midlands and the North West.
1.48 RPG11 aims, through its Spatial Strategy, to achieve the ‘urban renaissance’ in the four MUAs by the creation of development opportunities – to retain and attract people and investment – through a balanced network of vital and vibrant town and city centres as the strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments.
1.49 Policy UR3: ‘Enhancing the role of City, Town and District Centres’ recognises that city, town and district centres, and in particular, those centres identified in the network of town and city centres in Policy PA11 (see below), should be enhanced to play a leading role in the Region’s urban renaissance, as drivers of economic growth. UR3 states that this will be achieved by (inter alia) developing place-specific strategies that promote their sense of identity and local distinctiveness. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
DIVERSIFICATION AND MODERNISATION OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY
1.50 The success of the Region’s economy is clearly critical to the success of the RPG’s Spatial Strategy. Spatial focus behind the Region’s aspiration to achieve a step change in its economic performance centres on three main mechanisms as set out below, the third of which we subsequently discuss:
• the identification of regeneration zones;
• high technology corridors; and
• a network of strategic town and city centres.
Network of Strategic Town and City Centres
1.51 Policy PA11 of RPG11 identifies a network of 25 strategic town and city centres across the Region which are to be the focus for major retail, leisure and office developments, including Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton. RPG11 does not set out a formal hierarchy of roles for the centres, other than identifying Birmingham as the regional capital and an international city (Policy PA12). Instead the role of the centres is meant to be complementary, within the ‘polycentric’ concept3. Nevertheless, ten centres in the network within the MUAs – including Dudley, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton – have a “key role” to play in achieving urban renaissance. A number of centres, including Dudley and West Bromwich, are highlighted as being “particularly vulnerable”.
1.52 The network of 25 strategic town and city centres is intended to be the focus for major new retail developments (that is, those with gross floorspace of 10,000 sq.m and above, excluding floorspace dedicated to the retailing of convenience goods), and large-scale leisure and office developments (that is, those with a gross floorspace of 5,000 sq.m and above).
1.53 To support the drive to focus significant retail development in the strategic town and city centres, Policy PA13 does not envisage a requirement during the period covered by RPG, for any further large-scale (10,000 sq.m gross) out-of-centre retail developments or extensions to existing developments.
MERRY HILL
1.54 RPG11 recognises Merry Hill as a regional shopping destination, which may have the potential to assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country, but notes that this regeneration role must be balanced with the regeneration needs of other strategic and vulnerable centres. RPG11 states (paragraph 7.64) that the RPB should reach a strategic view on the following:
• regeneration priorities within the region/Black Country sub-region;
• the balance between centres, in particular which centres in the region/sub-region should be the focus for major growth to assist their regeneration; and then
3 As put forward in ‘A Polycentric Framework for the West Midlands’ (Ecotec, 2000). STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
• the role of Merry Hill and, if appropriate, the timing of any future large-scale development there.
1.55 Thus, whilst not pre-determining the findings of the further, ongoing strategic work to determine the long-term locational and spatial retail needs of the region/sub-region, RPG11 strongly suggests that significant development at Merry Hill is only likely to be acceptable following the exhaustion of development opportunities within the strategic and vulnerable town and city centres.
WEST MIDLANDS ECONOMIC STRATEGY 2004-2010, AWM, JANUARY 2004
1.56 The West Midlands Economic Strategy (RES) – Creating Advantage – was approved in January 2004. The RES was first published in 1999 and the 2004 version updates the strategy up to 2010. Both the 1999 and updated Strategy share the same approach, which is based on the following vision:
“The West Midlands will be recognised as a world class region in which to invest, work, study, visit and live and the most successful in creating wealth to benefit all of its people.”
1.57 The delivery of the RES is closely aligned with the West Midlands Objective Two Programme whose priorities – developing a diverse and dynamic base, creating the conditions for growth, and regenerating communities – coincide with the elements of the core strategy of the RES. Moreover, the updated RES was prepared in parallel with RPG and the provisions of the two documents are complementary and mutually reinforcing, particularly in relation to the theme of ‘urban renaissance’.
1.58 The strategy in the recently adopted RES is based on the same four “pillars” of activity that underpinned the 1999 Strategy, as detailed below:
• Pillar One: Developing a diverse and dynamic business base – supporting enterprise and innovation and securing inward investment to establish, retain and grow more businesses in the West Midlands.
• Pillar Two: Promoting a learning and skilful region – raising skills levels to ensure the workforce meets the needs of present and potential employers in the region.
• Pillar Three: Creating the conditions for growth – securing improvements to the region’s transport, communication and infrastructure to support the development of a diverse and dynamic business base.
• Pillar Four: Regenerating Communities in the West Midlands – focusing resources in places of greatest needs to ensure that communities enjoy a better quality of life.
1.59 In order to provide the necessary focus for action, the RES sets out three key mechanisms through which the Strategy will be delivered:
• six regeneration zones (five urban and one rural);
• high technology corridors; and STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
• the adoption of a business cluster strategy.
1.60 Below, we discuss the Regeneration Zones, with particular reference to the South Black Country and West Birmingham, and Walsall, Wolverhampton and South Staffordshire Zones.
REGENERATION ZONES
1.61 The Regeneration Zones (RZs) encompass areas of high unemployment and multiple deprivation regarding income, employment, health, education, housing and child poverty. The RZs, which are not based on local government administrative boundaries, are an attempt to overcome the perceived weaknesses of past regeneration initiatives where there was a lack of connectivity and confusion between the priorities and activities of policy interventions. The strategy of the RZ is therefore to adopt an integrated approach to these problems and avoid dealing with the issues in isolation.
1.62 Each Zone has a Partnership Board comprising public, private and voluntary sector representation. Zone Implementation Plans, which set out the strategies for the next three year period for each Zone (2003-2006) and are updated annually, have been adopted for each Zone. Advantage West Midlands (AWM) provides the bulk of the funding for key projects within the RZs. The RES states:
“Public sector funding for Zone Implementation Plans over the next three years is coming from a substantial proportion of Advantage West Midlands funding together with European and local partner funding and will total around £400 million.”
South Black Country and West Birmingham Regeneration Zone
1.63 The South Black Country and West Birmingham (SBCWB) ‘Arc of Opportunity’ RZ is the largest of the six West Midlands Zones, with a population of nearly half a million people. The Zone cuts across three local authority areas, taking in the western region of Birmingham City Centre and surrounding area, much of Sandwell MBC and a substantial part of Dudley MBC. including Brierley Hill.
1.64 The SBCWB Zone faces the largest challenge in terms of socio-economic conditions but is also characterised by a string of development opportunities stretching in an arc from Birmingham to Dudley. The strategic objectives of the Zone are to:
• support the urban renaissance of key strategic centres providing opportunities for sustainable economic development and an attractive urban environment;
• capitalise on a small number of significant business opportunities based on attractive locations whilst enhancing the prospects for growth of businesses as a whole; and to
• improve the social fabric of the Zone, including improving access to employment opportunities.
1.65 Key development projects within the SBCWB Zone to achieve these strategic priorities that have particular relevance to the Black Country include: STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 4: REVIEW OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLANNING POLICY
• Improvements to Brierley Hill Town Centre, concentrating on the land assembly required to deliver 500,000 sq. ft of space at the Waterfront Business Park.
• Regeneration of Dudley Town Centre and Castle Hill, including production of a development framework for Dudley town centre. For Castle Hill, the emphasis is on land and property assembly.
• Regeneration of West Bromwich Town Centre, including the C/PLEX development which will provide a new interactive cultural and educational attraction, acting as the catalyst for regeneration of the town centre.
1.66 Part of the SBCWB Zone is covered by Sandwell Housing Market Renewal Area. This is one of the nine Pathfinder areas established to address the problems of low housing demand and abandonment within parts of the country. A further mechanism to drive the regeneration of part of the Zone is the Sandwell Urban Regeneration Company, which is the agency responsible for leading the regeneration of the Hill Top, West Bromwich Town Centre and North Smethwick areas.
The Walsall, Wolverhampton and South Staffordshire Regeneration Zone
1.67 The Walsall, Wolverhampton and South Staffordshire (WWSS) ‘Future Foundations’ RZ has an estimated population of 291,000 and has the lowest Gross Domestic Product of all six RZs. The vision for the WWSS Zone is set out below:
“The North Black Country will be a recognised sub-region of ambition, innovation, diversity, knowledge and inclusion.”
1.68 Key development projects within the Zone include:
• Substantial physical improvements to Walsall Town Centre, Wolverhampton City Centre and, in particular, Bilston Urban Village.
• The promotion of Wolverhampton as a city where new sectors based on knowledge, learning and technology can flourish, developing an environment where people enjoy high quality cultural and visitor attractions together with urban living.
• The establishment of an Urban Regeneration Company in Walsall as the delivery mechanism for regeneration of parts of the town. New mixed use projects will be promoted, with particular focus on the Walsall Waterfront opportunity, which builds upon and complements the Walsall Art Gallery.
• Continuing development of the links with the Wolverhampton-Telford Technology Corridor, a key project within which will be Phase 3 of the Wolverhampton Science Park. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
1.1 In this Technical Paper, we review the characteristics and profile of the Black Country study area (Plan 2), and examine current comparison goods shopping patterns. Our detailed review of population and expenditure projections and socio-demographic characteristics draw on data provided by Experian Business Solutions, and our review of shopping patterns is based on the outcomes of the Household Telephone Survey. Socio-demographic characteristics have been compared between each local authority: Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton.
POPULATION
1.2 Population estimates and forecasts for each of the 54 survey zones were prepared from the Experian Business Solutions Emarketer software package. This provides estimates of population in 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2016. Experian population projections beyond the baseline position (2004) have been derived from JICPOPS (Joint Industry Committee for Population Standards), an industry standard for population estimates. Experian use the most accurate small area population estimates from the 2001 Census. For the purposes of this 30 year study, and the baseline position, we have projected forward beyond 2016 to 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035, but have incorporated the 2016 population forecast due to the long term nature of projections and uncertainty about what may happen in the future.
Table 1.1: Black Country Catchment Area Population Projections
2004 2009 2016 2035
1,914,526 1,904,873 1,907,191 1,907,191
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004
1.3 Overall, the population of the whole Black Country catchment area is currently 1,914,526. It is forecast to fall to 1,904,873 by 2009, a decrease of 0.5%. By 2016 the population is forecast to rise to 1,907,191; and, due to previous marginal fluctuations, we assume a static position between 2016 and 2035. These figures represent the baseline position and do not factor in residential demolition and build rates outlined in RPG11.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
1.4 Using comparisons between the four local authorities and the national average, we have drawn on the 2001 Census to analyse a number of socio-economic indicators throughout the Black Country. We review the composition of ethnic group, social grade, household car ownership and house tenure within each local authority boundary. Data is derived from Experian Business Solutions.
ETHNIC GROUP
1.5 Figure 1 illustrates the ethnic group composition by local authority and draws a comparison with the national average. It is evident that the ethnic composition of Dudley is broadly in line with national average figures for each ethnic group. The composition of Sandwell, Walsall STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
and Wolverhampton marginally differ from the national average with a lower proportion of White people and a higher proportion of Asian people. The proportion of Black people in Sandwell and Wolverhampton is also marginally above the national average.
Figure 1: Ethnic Group by Black Country Authority
100 90 White 80 Mixed 70 60 Asian 50 Black % 40 Chinese 30 Other 20 10 0
l l y l l n in le e a o a d w ls t it u d a p r n m B D a W a t S rh a e re lv G o W
ii. Social Grade of Head of Household
1.6 Figure 2 illustrates the ‘social grade of head of household’ in comparison with the national average. Social grade categories are defined by Experian as follows:
AB – Higher and intermediate manager and professional;
C1 – Supervisory, clerical, junior manager/admin/professional;
C2 – Skilled manual workers;
D – Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers;
E – On state benefit, unemployed, lowest grade workers.
1.7 It is evident that there is a below average proportion of people employed in the AB and C1 social grades in each of the four local authorities, and an above average proportion of those in the C2, D and E social grade categories. Affluence and educational attainment is to some extent reflected in the skills profile of those areas. The contrast is greatest in Sandwell which has the highest proportion of people on state benefit, unemployed or employed in low grade jobs, and the lowest proportion of people employed in the AB social grade category. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
Figure 2: Social Grade of Head of Household
35
30
25 AB C1 20
% C2 15 D 10 E 5
0
l ey n sal tai dl al i Du W Sandwell rhampton e reat Br lv o G W
iii. Household Car Ownership
1.8 Figure 3 illustrates household ‘car availability’ within the study area compared to the national average. This exercise again re-emphasises the affluence of Dudley compared to Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton. The proportion of people with no car is below the national average, whilst the proportion of people with two cars is above the national average. In Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton the proportion of people with no car is above the national average.
Figure 3: Household Car Ownership
50 45 40 No c ar 35 30 One car
% 25 Tw o cars 20 Three cars 15 Four or more cars 10 5 0
y l n n le el all als ritai Dud W ampto h at B Sandw e ver r ol G W STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
iv. House Tenure
1.9 Figure 4 illustrates the ‘type of housing’ available compared with the national average. The proportion of housing stock in each local authority is generally in line with national averages, although Dudley has a higher proportion of owner occupied housing and a lower proportion of social rented housing. In contrast, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton all have lower proportions of owner occupied housing and higher proportions of social rented housing.
Figure 4: House Tenure
80 70 60 Ow er Occupied 50 Social Rented
% 40 Rented Privately 30 Living Rent Free 20 10 0
ey n in ta ri udl mpto D Walsall t B Sandwell a lverha o Gre W
AVAILABLE RETAIL EXPENDITURE
1.10 Socio-demographic characteristics throughout the Black Country catchment area are manifested in the variation in expenditure per capita on comparison goods across the catchment area. To ensure a detailed analysis of expenditure patterns, the catchment area has been divided into eighteen ‘expenditure zones’ to highlight variations in available spend.
1.11 The Experian Business Solutions Emarketer expenditure reports, produced for the purposes of this study, calculate annual consumer retail expenditure per person in 2002, based on the demographic profile of the survey area by postcode sector. We have made a deduction for special forms of trading and generated available expenditure per capita data for 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2016 and up to 2035, assuming growth in available expenditure at 4.1% per annum for comparison goods and 0.4% for convenience goods. This is based on conservative ultra long term growth rates derived from Experian Emarketer.
1.12 Within the catchment area, average comparison goods per capita expenditure is currently £2,322 per annum (Table 2, Section 9), and is forecast to grow to £2,839 by 2009, £3,761 by 2016 and £8,070 by 2035. To put these figures into context we have compared them with the current national average (Table 3, Section 9), which highlights comparison goods per capita expenditure of £2,419 per annum in 2004. This is forecast to grow to £2,958 by 2009, £3,918 by 2016 and £8,407 by 2035. It is evident, that on average, available per capita STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
expenditure in the Black Country catchment area is below the national average (Table 1.2). The same pattern is evident with convenience goods expenditure (Table 1.3).
Table 1.2: Black Country Comparison Goods Per Capita Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£ £ £ £
Black Country 2,322 2,839 3,761 8,070 Catchment Area
National Average 2,419 2,958 3,918 8,407
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004
Table 1.3: Black Country Convenience Goods Per Capita Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£ £ £ £
Black Country 1,347 1,374 1,413 1,525 Catchment Area
National Average 1,426 1,454 1,496 1,613
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004
1.13 Applying the per capita expenditure estimates to the population estimates, indicates the comparison and convenience expenditure available in the total catchment area. For comparison goods, the total available spend is circa £4.4 billion in 2004, rising to £7.2 billion in 2016 and £15.4 billion in 2035, a total growth of £10.9 billion (246%).
1.14 If, however, the same population were spending at national average levels, the total available expenditure would instead be £4.6 billion in 2004, rising to £16 billion by 2035, an increase of £11.4 billion. These figures are set out in Table 1.4. Again, the same pattern applies to convenience goods expenditure (Table 1.5).
Table 1.4: Black Country Total Comparison Goods Available Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£000 £000 £000 £000
Black Country 4,441,930 5,403,637 7,168,655 15,381,601 Catchment Area
National 4,631,837 5,633,933 7,472,999 16,034,624 Average
Black Country 189,907 230,295 304,344 653,023 Shortfall
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004 STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
Table 1.5: Black Country Total Convenience Goods Available Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£000 £000 £000 £000
Black Country 2,574,230 2,612,920 2,690,256 2,902,245 Catchment Area
National 2,729,499 2,770,488 2,852,466 3,077,237 Average
Black Country 155,269 157,569 162,210 174,992 Shortfall
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004
1.15 It is evident from our analysis that lower than average per capita expenditure within the catchment area results in a shortfall of circa £162 million of convenience goods expenditure and £304 million of comparison goods expenditure by 2016 (Table 5, Section 9). Our assessment concludes that to bring the average per capita expenditure in the Black Country catchment area in line with the national average, convenience goods spend will need to increase by 5.5% per person, and comparison goods spend should increase by 3.9% per person, per annum (Table 6, Section 9).
AVAILABLE LEISURE EXPENDITURE
1.16 Using the same methodology as the review of available retail expenditure, and population projections discussed in this technical paper, we have drawn on eighteen separate expenditure zones across the Black Country catchment area to ensure a detailed analysis of leisure expenditure patterns. The Experian Business Solutions Emarketer expenditure reports calculate annual consumer leisure expenditure per person in 2002, and assume an ultra long term growth rate of 2% per annum. Table 3, Section 8, grows per capita leisure expenditure in each zone to 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2016 and up to 2035.
1.17 Within the Black Country catchment area, average leisure expenditure per capita is currently £1,417 per annum, and is forecast to grow to £1,565 by 2009, £1,797 by 2016 and £2,619 by 2035. To put these figures into context, we have compared them with the current national average (Table 2, Section 8). It is evident from this comparison that leisure expenditure per capita in the Black Country catchment area is somewhat lower than the national average, which currently stands at £1,539 per annum. The comparisons are highlighted in Table 1.6.
Table 1.6: Black Country Leisure Goods Per Capita Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£ £ £ £
Black Country 1,417 1,565 1,797 2,619 Catchment Area
National Average 1,539 1,699 1,952 2,843
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004 STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHNICAL PAPER 5: CATCHMENT PROFILE
1.18 Applying the per capita expenditure estimates to the population estimates, indicates the total leisure expenditure available in the Black Country catchment area. In the leisure industry, the total available spend is currently circa £2.7 billion (2004), rising to £3.4 billion in 2009 and again to £4.9 billion by 2035, a total growth of £2.28 billion.
1.19 If, however, the same population were spending at national average levels, the total available expenditure would instead be £2.9 billion (2004), rising to £5.4 billion by 2035. At present, the Black Country catchment area has an expenditure shortfall, when compared to national averages, of £230 million, rising to £423 million by 2035. These figures are set out in Table 1.7, below.
Table 1.7: Black Country Total Leisure Goods Available Expenditure
Area 2004 2009 2016 2035
£000 £000 £000 £000
Black Country 2,715,242 2,983,132 3,431,259 4,998,696 Catchment Area
National 2,945,980 3,236,200 3,721,901 5,422,106 Average
Black Country 230,738 253,068 290,642 423,410 Shortfall
Source: Experian Business Solution Emarketer, 2004
1.20 Our assessment concludes that to bring the average per capita expenditure on leisure goods/services in line with national averages, leisure spend will need to increase by 5.4% per person.
SUMMARY
1.21 The population of the Black Country catchment area is currently 1,914,526, and is set to decrease marginally by 2009, and rise again between 2009 and 2016. These figures represent the base position and do not factor in residential demolitions and build rates. At present, the Black Country catchment area is not achieving national average per capita spend rates in convenience, comparison and leisure expenditure categories. In particular, it currently has a shortfall of £189 million of comparison goods expenditure, £155 million of convenience goods expenditure and £230 million of leisure expenditure. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES
TECHNICAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
BACKGROUND
1.1 As part of the BBC study we have held meetings with senior council officials and representatives from key organisations to consider the potential for development and regeneration in the four strategic centres over the next 30 years, taking into consideration a range of land uses including residential, retail, commercial, leisure, culture, employment, education etc.
1.2 This technical paper firstly sets the regional context, highlighting the strategic and competing network of centres in the West Midlands region. Second, we draw on published data and meetings with senior council officials and representatives from key organisations, to summarise the current position in each centre, and the short, medium and longer term aspirations for each centre. Third, we draw on the results of the Household Telephone Survey to examine current shopping patterns and the extent of the catchment area for each Black Country strategic centre.
REGIONAL CONTEXT
1.3 Regional Planning Guidance for the West Midlands (RPG11, June 2004) identifies a network of strategic town and city centres to be developed across the West Midlands region. The guidance emphasises that these centres should be seen as a network within the polycentric concept of complementary centres rather than the centres competing with each other. RPG11 states that the network of town and city centres (listed in Table 1.1) will be the focus for: -
Major retail developments (i.e. those of more than 10,000 sq m gross floorspace, excluding floorspace dedicated to the retailing on convenience goods);
Uses which attract large numbers of people including major cultural, tourist, social and community venues; and
Large scale leisure and office (Class B1) developments (i.e. those of 5,000 sq m or more gross floorspace).
Table 1.1: Network of Strategic Town and City Centres, RPG11
Birmingham Hanley Newcastle-under- Solihull Telford Lyme
Burton-upon-Trent Hereford Nuneaton Stafford Walsall
Cannock Kidderminster Redditch Stratford-upon-Avon West Bromwich
Coventry Leamington Spa Rugby Sutton Coldfield Wolverhampton
Dudley Lichfield Shrewsbury Tamworth Worcester
Source: RPG11; Note: See Plan 1 STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
1.4 Whilst Merry Hill is not listed within this network, it is recognised in RPG11 as an important Regional shopping destination which may have potential to assist in the regeneration of the South Black Country and West Birmingham Regeneration Zone. The guidance states that any further retail development at Merry Hill should be considered in the context of the Black Country Study and work on creating a balanced network of centres. Any such expansion should also be subject to improvements to public transport including the extension of the Metro to Merry Hill, and the introduction of a car parking regime, including the use of parking charges.
THE CURRENT POSITION
BIRMINGHAM
1.5 Birmingham lies at the heart of one of Britain’s largest conurbation’s and is the commercial, administrative and cultural capital of the West Midlands region. Birmingham is one of six centres nationally categorised by PROMIS as a Major City, on the basis of the volume and quality of its retail offer. City centre retail floorspace in Birmingham is estimated at 3.22m sq ft (300,000 sq m).
1.6 The City has a strong department store offer, bolstered by the addition of Debenhams and Selfridges at the Bull Ring, which opened in September 2003. Other department stores include Rackhams (House of Fraser) store, Beatties and a small Harvey Nichols at The Mailbox. Birmingham has an extensive fashion offer, ranging from discount and mass market to up-market and designer fashion. The Bull Ring is now regarded as the main focus for upmarket fashion operators in Birmingham city centre.
1.7 Birmingham has eight managed shopping centres: The Bull Ring, The Pallasades, Priory Square, Martineau Place, Pavilion Central, The Arcadian, The Mailbox and City Plaza. There are currently two J Sainsbury foodstores in the core shopping area. Further convenience shopping is provided in the Marks & Spencer, Rackhams and Selfridges foodhalls, and on market stalls in the new Indoor Market. Marks & Spencer also have a Simply Food store on Colmore Row and Tesco opened an Express format store at The Mailbox in late 2003.
1.8 In April 2004, there were 111 reported requirements for Birmingham, ranking the city 14 nationally in terms of demand. The Birmingham Alliance, developers responsible for the Bull Ring, are now expected to begin to formulate a strategy for the second phase of Martineau Galleries – the redevelopment of Priory Square.
WALSALL
1.9 Walsall is situated circa 10 miles from Birmingham city centre. The centre does not fall within the Experian Retail Centre Ranking Report (2003) which ranks the top 50 centres nationally taking into consideration a range of retail and town centre indicators, but ranks 53 on the PROMIS centres in terms of its shopping population.
1.10 Walsall serves a relatively small catchment area, comprising most of Walsall Borough. The catchment extends to Brownhills in the north and just south of Cannock, and includes the towns of Aldridge and Bloxwich. To the south and west, the catchment is limited by Merry STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
Hill and Wolverhampton respectively, whilst Birmingham and Sutton Coldfield limit it to the south and east.
1.11 Experian estimate Walsall contains 107,350 sq m of retail floorspace, broken down as follows:-
Walsall – Composition
Floor space (sq m) % Index
Convenience 18,490 17.21 102
Comparison 57,600 53.63 101
Series 16,440 15.31 74
Vacant 11,710 10.9 138
Other miscellaneous 3,160 2.94 213
Source: Experian, November 2003
1.12 The retail offer is fairly mainstream, and up-market and speciality retailing is limited. Walsall has only one department store, Debenhams, and a selection of variety stores including BhS, Littlewoods, Marks & Spencer and Woolworths. Walsall has a relatively weak retail provision relative to the size of the shopping population, reflecting in part, the strength of the competition.
1.13 Walsall has three managed shopping centres, all of which opened before 1980. The town centre has a strong convenience provision, with three large foodstores: J Sainsbury; Tesco and Safeway. Town Wharf, an on-street unit shop scheme, opened in 1996 at the northern end of Park Street, just beyond the prime pitch. Occupiers here include BhS, Woolworths, Burtons/Dorothy Perkins, Ottakers, Superdrug and Wallis. PROMIS identified 29 retailer requirements in April 2004 - a relatively low level of demand for a town of its size and status compared to a PROMIS centre average of 51.
WEST BROMWICH
1.14 West Bromwich is located 5 miles from Birmingham city centre, and its relatively small catchment is constrained by Wolverhampton to the north and north west, Birmingham to the east and Dudley and Merry Hill to the west and south west. Like Walsall, the centre does not fall within the Experian Retail Centre Ranking Report (2003), but it ranks 154 on the PROMIS rankings, some way behind Walsall.
1.15 Town centre floorspace in West Bromwich is estimated at 63,000 sq m, broken down as:- STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
West Bromwich – Composition
Floor space (sq m) % Index
Convenience 14,120 22.49 134
Comparison 31,400 50.00 95
Series 11,240 17.9 87
Vacant 4,920 7.84 100
Other miscellaneous 1,116 1.78 96
Source: Experian, February 2003
1.16 Retailer representation is somewhat limited in terms of national multiples and department and variety stores. West Bromwich does not have a department store, and variety stores are limited to Littlewoods and Woolworths. Foodstore provision comprises discount retailers including Safeway, Kwik Save, Aldi and Iceland, and the town centre’s two shopping centres opened in 1971. There were only 14 reported retailer requirements in April 2004.
WOLVERHAMPTON
1.17 The city of Wolverhampton is located to the north west of the West Midlands Conurbation, on the edge of the Black Country, around 18 miles from Birmingham city centre. Wolverhampton is ranked 45 in the Experian Retail Centre Rankings 2003, and 38 in the PROMIS centre rankings – above both Walsall and West Bromwich.
1.18 Town centre retail floorspace in Wolverhampton is estimated at 140,000 sq m, broken down as follows:-
Wolverhampton - Composition
Floor space (sq m) % Index
Convenience 15,700 11.15 66
Comparison 82,400 58.5 110
Series 25,920 18.4 89
Vacant 13,940 9.89 125
Other miscellaneous 2,880 2.04 145
Source: Experian, October 2003
1.19 Wolverhampton has two department stores, including Beattie’s flagship department store and the smaller out-dated TJ Hughes department store. Variety retailers include BhS, Littlewoods and Marks & Spencer. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
1.20 Wolverhampton has two managed shopping centres which opened in 1968, but have since undergone refurbishment. BhS, Gap, Marks & Spencer and Woolworths are all located on the centre’s short prime pitch. Foodstore provision includes Tesco Metro, Netto, Iceland, Co- op and a large J Sainsbury superstore on the town centre boundary.
1.21 In April 2004 there were 42 reported requirements for Wolverhampton. Retailers with a registered requirement are from the lower end of the comparison goods market and include Pilot clothing, Raw shoes and Republic.
BRIERLEY HILL (MERRY HILL CENTRE)
1.22 Brierley Hill is located approximately 12 miles from Birmingham city centre, 11 miles from Wolverhampton and 15 miles from Walsall. The centre (Merry Hill) is ranked 16 in the Experian Retail Centre Rankings Report, 2003, higher than Wolverhampton, Walsall and West Bromwich.
1.23 Retail floorspace in Brierley Hill is estimated to be 150,000 sq m, ie, similar in floorspace area to Wolverhampton. The centre comprises:-
Merry Hill - Composition
Floor space (sq m) % Index
Convenience 13,290 8.93 53
Comparison 119,380 80.26 151
Series 9,200 6.18 30
Vacant 6,690 4.5 57
Other miscellaneous 190 0.12 9
Source: Experian, March 2003
1.24 Merry Hill shopping centre opened in 1986, and plans for a major extension were blocked in 2003. The centre has a good range of higher order goods retailers, anchored by Asda, BhS, Debenhams, H&M, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury’s and TK Maxx, and benefits from a multiplex cinema. At present the centre has a significant physical barrier separating the traditional high street from the modern shopping centre, but plans are in place to enhance integration.
CURRENT ASPIRATIONS
1.25 A number of initiatives are in place in the Black Country centres which aim to improve the retail and leisure offer, stimulate investment and maintain competition. We outline below the short-medium term (i.e. 5-15 years) development aspirations of each centre. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
WALSALL
1.26 In addition to the recently completed art gallery and Crown Wharf retail park, key investment projects in Walsall include the following: -
Shannon’s Mill – outline planning permission has been given for 250,000 sq. ft of retail floorspace, of which reserved matters consent has been given for 140,000 sq. ft. The development will be in the form of a factory outlet centre and normal High Street unit shopping, and will provide a replacement store for J Sainsbury. St. Modwen is the lead developer.
Walsall Waterfront – where Urban Splash has been selected as the Council’s preferred development partner for a mixed use scheme involving commercial leisure and housing either side of the canal to the west of the New Art Gallery.
A proposal for a redevelopment and expansion of the recently vacated J Sainsbury store for re-occupation by foodstore operator, on a site next to Shannon’s Mill.
A proposal by Tesco for a new store and redevelopment of Digbeth Square where its existing store is located. A scheme to the north of Littleton Street was dismissed following a public inquiry, but Tesco is known to be investigating an alternative site.
Ongoing housing development to the east of Hatherton Street and to the south of Littleton Street.
1.27 The formation of the Walsall Urban Regeneration Company (URC) was announced in December 2003. Circa £600m will go into the area over the next 10-15 years. Roger Tym & Partners have recently been commissioned to undertake the Regeneration Framework for the URC. All initiatives under the URC will be undertaken during this 10-15 year period.
WEST BROMWICH
1.28 Over £350m of expenditure is committed to West Bromwich town centre, and the Sandwell Urban Regeneration Company will add to this pot of money. We have identified the following short to medium term investment and development initiatives: -
The development of over 30 acres for retail by Tesco. Proposals for the site, next to the Queens Square Shopping Centre, include around 200,000 sq ft (18,580 sq m) of retail, built alongside a 138,000 sq ft (12,820 sq m) Tesco Extra, a nine screen multiplex cinema, a health and fitness centre, 20,000 sq ft (1,858 sq m) of A3 cafes and bars, and a 2,000 space car park. The Tesco development is proposed to open by 2006/7.
Outline permission was granted in May 2003 for the remodelling of The Queens Square shopping centre adjacent to the Tesco site. The plans for the refurbishment include larger floorplates/units, with some different tenants. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
Astle Park, a recently completed retail development of over 100,000 sq ft (9,290 sq m), was partially open for Christmas 2003, although some units remain vacant.
The new and award winning bus station was opened in 2002 and public transport usage in West Bromwich is rising.
The Learning and Cultural Quarter is based on the flagship projects of the pUBLIC, the new £40m College Campus, and the Sandwell Academy to be built on the site of the former Thomas Telford School adjacent to West Bromwich Albion’s football stadium. The pUBLIC will include space for performances and the Square itself.
WOLVERHAMPTON
1.29 A number of initiatives are in place for the next 5-6 years to ensure Wolverhampton achieves its overall objective to become a top 30 regional centre. The current initiatives are as follows:
Wolverhampton City Council prepared the City Centre Core Expansion Development Brief for the Cleveland Street site (3.2ha). More recently, a Dutch property company, AM Developments UK Ltd, have been appointed to implement a £210m retail led mixed use scheme (500,000 sq ft retail) with 80-90 retail units anchored by one department store; one large leisure use, possibly a cinema; a mix of A3 uses; 100-150 residential units; and 800 underground parking spaces.
The City Centre Strategy and Action Plan, 2004, recognises the highly successful existing and proposed regeneration and development projects as part of the St John’s Urban Village scheme, including the flagship Market Square Development, Little Brickkiln Street, The Learning Quarter and the School Street site. The action plan will help inform planning policy and be used as a tool against which to measure proposals for specific sites.
BRIERLEY HILL
1.30 Both the UDP (2003) and draft SPG for Brierley Hill (2003) are based upon the Vision for the evolution of Brierley Hill as a new town centre first set out in the Brierley Hill Area Development Framework (ADF) published in July 1998 and adopted as Supplementary planning guidance by the Council in June 1999. The key components of the vision include:
Acknowledging the role of Merry Hill as a key retail destination within the Borough, and as a fundamental economic force for wider investment within Brierley Hill.
Recognising the special role of Brierley Hill High Street as a secondary trading location within the overall area serving a more localised catchment area and functions.
Building upon the momentum created by the high- quality development achieved within the waterfront around the canal basin by extending high density, high quality, mixed use development along the Dudley Canal Corridor.
Maintaining and enhance other essential town centre functions. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
1.31 The theme of Brierley Hill as a major focus for economic and community regeneration has become a central part of Looking Forward: The Black Country in 2033 and the Brierley Hill Regeneration Partnerships vision for Brierley Hill. This concentrates on developing employment, training and health and housing initiatives to complement the proposed physical development of the area. The main components of the ‘new’ Brierley Hill would include:
1100 new homes
43,500 sq m (gross) of comparison floorspace
50,000 sq m of new commercial office floorspace
20,000 sq m of new mixed leisure floorspace
An expanded range of civic, community and heath facilities
The full and effective integration of the areas three functional components.
Improved public and private transport access including the development and opening of Midland Metro Line 3.
The introduction of car park charging at Merry Hill as part of a balanced package of transport proposals.
1.32 The current short to medium development initiatives include the following:
Circa 400 residential units at Dudley Canal/BhS car park/Pedmore Road (under construction);
12,000 sq m of office floorspace – Dudley Canal (under construction);
Circa 18,000 sq m of mixed leisure uses – Dudley Canal;
Brierley Hill NHS LIFT scheme. 9,000 sq m of new health and community facilities – former Brier School;
David Lock Associates and DTZ Pieda are working on preparing a detailed Implementation and Investment Masterplan for Brierley Hill High Street in the absence of any up to date Development plan policies for the centre.
Midland Metro – TWA Inquiry now closed and decision awaited. Construction projected to start 2006, scheme complemented 2007/8.
Brierley Hill Integrated Transport Scheme – Funding secured for relief route to Brierley Hill High Street in 2003/4 Transport Capital Settlement. Detailed scheme design underway.
LONGER TERM POTENTIAL
1.33 Current development aspirations relate to the short to medium term, i.e. the next 5-15 years. It is clear, however, that there are currently no long term strategies in place for the strategic STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
centres over a 30 year period, particularly in relation to the role and relationships between the four centres and in light of growing competition in the wider catchment area. Based on the views of each authority, we outline below what we believe to be the key development aspirations and opportunities in the four strategic centres over the next 30 years.
WALSALL
The role of the health sector is a potential major driver for regeneration, linked to the possible redevelopment of the Hospital and the growth of the teaching/research element, complemented with key worker housing.
Areas of the town are likely to be identified for redevelopment over the next 30 years, for example, the relatively new Crown Wharf Retail Park. Debenhams is looking tired and will need redevelopment to prevent the store leaving the centre. Holding on to key retailers is likely to involve the redevelopment of the three shopping centres.
The office market in Walsall is poor. Walsall has lost business services, with many being absorbed into larger conglomerates. Two office tower blocks in Walsall have never been fully occupied. The creation of an office market appears to be a long term objective in Walsall, and investment in other areas of the town centre will stimulate office development.
There are opportunities to improve the offer in terms of commercial leisure centres/family activities. Junction 10 appears to have had a negative impact on Walsall town centre. Walsall requires a cultural venue for events/entertainment purposes, for example a theatre/concert hall or other big venue.
Potential longer term development sites included the Civic Centre, Post Office building, and the relocation of Walsall College. Walsall Waterfront can continue to develop building on the short to medium term development aspirations and is an appropriate development opportunity site for commercial leisure and residential use.
The development of the teaching hospital to national and international importance and centre of excellence, together with the art gallery and waterfront leisure and evening economy, appear an achievable and appropriate long term aspirations for Walsall which distinguish it from the other centres.
WOLVERHAMPTON
Over the next 30 years, both the Wulfrun and Mander shopping centres are likely to be subject to further major refurbishment and perhaps even redevelopment, and the potential relocation/redevelopment of the Civic Centre may facilitate further expansion of the core area. Whilst the potential for redevelopment exists in a number of areas, it is important not to sanitise the city centre. At present its diversity is varied, interesting and attractive.
Other potential development opportunities include the football stadium; the hospital site; the Magistrates Court; and the development of the office market. An extension of the canal network could form a new basin penetrating into the City. The University could expand or relocate some of its facilities/faculties to Wobaston Road as part of the STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
Technology Corridor development, with vacated Centre buildings being reused for office/residential development.
A number of town centre car parks would be appropriate for redevelopment, particularly on Darlington Street. Development on car parks could occur in conjunction with other transport options, for example, the development of a Park & Ride system beyond the Ring Road.
Wolverhampton would benefit from a major new tourist/visitor attraction over the next 30 years, perhaps in the form of a multi-purpose auditorium/activity centre.
Wolverhampton has a genuine opportunity to expand the University and educational offer which would differentiate its role in the network of centres. At present, of all the Black Country Centres Wolverhampton alone appears to have significant opportunities to develop the concept of urban living, as a real alternative to Birmingham City Centre.
BRIERLEY HILL
In 30 years time, much of the retail warehouse units/elements of the shopping centre will be obsolete and in need of redevelopment. The possibility for a new, high density, mixed use format model, for example a basement gym, foodstore, with residential above. The concept of ‘building up’ the current, generally low density development in the area.
A long term goal is to double the size of the waterfront, with a particular focus on additional leisure offer, perhaps in the form of a casino, bars, restaurants, and cultural venues.
To function more effectively as a centre, linkages between the different elements are being explored. However, in strategic terms the more significant challenge is to improve the accessibility of the centre by non car modes, through rail/metro and bus links.
In terms of the network of centres, Brierley Hill has the long term potential to continue to develop its Waterfront activity for major office development generating an employment base of regional and strategic importance, together with an improved leisure offer.
WEST BROMWICH
West Bromwich has furthest to go if it is to become a genuinely strategic centre. At present it is a relatively weak town centre, and lacks the diverse cultural, administrative and leisure facilities of Walsall or Wolverhampton. Whilst the Tesco scheme and the pUBLIC represent key initiatives the centre lacks an overall vision, or any established strong attractor on which to build.
Notwithstanding the major challenges the centre faces, it occupies a strategic location, and has excellent motorway access. In physical terms, the shopping core presents significant opportunities for further development with potential for significant retail and commercial leisure, to complement and support the cultural attractions of the pUBLIC. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
CATCHMENT AREA
1.34 In order to understand shopping patterns and the comparison goods catchment areas for the four strategic centres we draw on the results of Household Telephone Survey which provides a highly detailed picture of where residents do most of their non food shopping. The survey included five questions on specific comparison goods types which coincide with the Experian Business Solutions definitions of comparison goods expenditure. We use the weighted average of the responses to the survey questions to establish the pattern of spending for comparison goods.
DOMINANT CENTRE BY ZONE
1.35 First, we examined the dominant non-food destination of residents in each zone in the Black Country catchment area, focusing on Merry Hill, Walsall, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton. Birmingham is excluded from this exercise. Whilst this exercise highlights the significance of different centres it does not define the catchment of each centre. For example, where two centres have very similar market shares in a zone, the centre with the slightly higher market share will be recorded as the dominant centre, under playing the importance of the second centre. The dominant strategic centre for comparison goods by zone is illustrated on Plan 3.
1.36 This exercise highlights the dominance of Wolverhampton and Merry Hill in the Black Country catchment area, covering the north, south and western areas in full. It became evident from the survey results that the strategic centres do not have a dominance in Zone 34 to the north east of Walsall – the market share is less than 0.5% for each centre. The centres with a strong dominance in this zone include Lichfield (38.9%), Birmingham (17.4%), Burton upon Trent (7.9%), Sutton Coldfield (9%) and Tamworth (7.9%). For this reason, Zone 34 has been left blank. The limited ability of West Bromwich to compete is reflected in its dominant market share in only four zones.
1.37 Second, we examined the influence and dominance of Birmingham on the Black Country catchment area. Plan 5 highlights the zones in which Birmingham dominates in comparison goods market share over the four strategic centres. It is evident that Birmingham has a higher market share in eleven zones along the eastern boundary of the Black Country catchment area. This exercise illustrates that West Bromwich has a dominant market share in only two zones and reflects the centres difficulty in attracting comparison goods trade.
CATCHMENT AREAS
1.38 Drawing on the results of the Household Telephone Survey we have analysed the core and secondary catchment areas for non food goods for each of the four strategic centres and Birmingham. The core catchment area equates to a market share of 45%+, whilst the secondary catchment area equates to a market share of 10% - 44%. Market shares below 10% have been excluded for the purposes of this exercise. The catchment areas are highlighted on Plan 5-10.
1.39 It is evident that Wolverhampton has the largest core catchment for comparison goods, covering eight zones, extending to the north and west of Wolverhampton towards the outer boundary of the Black Country catchment area. Wolverhampton’s secondary catchment area covers less extensive. Walsall, West Bromwich and Merry Hill have more tightly defined core STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
catchment areas comprising three, one and four zones respectively. Merry Hill has an extensive secondary catchment area covering eighteen zones. Walsall’s secondary catchment area comprises eleven zones and West Bromwich is smaller with five zones. West Bromwich has the weakest influence in the Black Country catchment area.
1.40 Birmingham’s core catchment area for comparison goods covers only one zone (Zone 1). Birmingham therefore has a market share lower thank 45% in each of the other 53 zones. Zone 33 (Cannock) and 48 (Bridgenorth) do not fall within the designated core or secondary catchment areas.
1.41 We completed the same catchment area exercise focusing on clothing and footwear shopping patterns and consequent market shares. These are primarily town centre goods and do include other comparison goods such as bulky DIY goods that are often sold in out of centre locations. This scenario focuses on this key town centre activity because it represents the key driver of comparison shopping trips, and clothing and footwear makes up a significant proportion of shopping centre floorspace. Some centres may be stronger or weaker as clothing and footwear shopping destinations. The results of this exercise are illustrated on Plan 11.
1.42 The key finding is the influence of Merry Hill within the Black Country catchment area as a clothing and footwear shopping destination. In this scenario, Merry Hill has a core catchment area (i.e. 45% market share +) in twelve zones, compared to only four for all comparison goods. Birmingham also has a stronger core catchment when focusing on clothing and footwear, covering five zones on the eastern boundary compared to only one zone for all comparison goods.
1.43 Walsall’s core catchment is also wider covering seven zones instead of only three. A significant difference between scenarios is the role of West Bromwich as a clothing and footwear destination. It is evident that the centre has no core catchment when focusing on clothing and footwear, suggesting people are choosing to travel elsewhere for this type of shopping. The secondary catchment area is marginally more extensive covering eight zones instead of only five.
SUMMARY
1.44 Regional Planning Guidance for the West Midlands (RPG11) identifies a network of 25 strategic town and city centres to be developed across the West Midlands region. The guidance emphasises that these centres should be seen as a network within the polycentric concept of complementary centres.
1.45 Brierley Hill and Wolverhampton are the subject of major proposals and strategies which reinforce their position in the local retail hierarchy, and may help safeguard their relative position to Birmingham.
1.46 In the case of Walsall, there appears to be the opportunity to reinforce the convenience element, but it remains to be seen whether Shannon’s Mill will provide the necessary scale and critical mass to do more than hold its own in the local retail hierarchy. The Waterfront is among the key development opportunities in Walsall at present. STUDY OF BLACK COUNTRY CENTRES TECHINCAL PAPER 6: EXISTING PROVISION/ASPIRATIONS
1.47 West Bromwich have, however, fallen the furthest in the retail rank position, and it is evident that Astle Park failed to uplift the status of the centre. The forthcoming Tesco scheme is critical to trigger renewed confidence in the centre, and is likely to reinforce both the convenience and comparison offer in the centre. It will not in itself, however, be sufficient to enable Walsall to perform a more strategic role.
1.48 Merry Hill and Wolverhampton are the most dominant centres in terms of market share within the Black Country catchment area. West Bromwich is significantly weak in comparison and Birmingham dominates the eastern boundary of the whole catchment area. It appears that Walsall is enabling to maintain a stronghold in a tightly defined area. In terms of catchment area, Birmingham, Merry Hill and Walsall are stronger in the clothing and footwear comparison goods categories. West Bromwich has a particularly small catchment area, and in our analysis of clothing and footwear, has no core catchment area.