Leadership Briefing 2018

Dods Monitoring: Conservative Leadership

Leadership election procedure and candidates briefing

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Overview

As Westminster bubbles away with rumours the 48 letters of no confidence in Prime Minister ’s leadership could be close, the Dods Monitoring team has produced a guide to the no confidence procedure, leadership contest and candidates who might stand in the contest.

The briefing contains:

• Vote of no confidence procedure

• Leadership election procedure

• General Election and Fixed Term Parliament Act

• Candidate profiles

No confidence and Leadership flowchart

Vote of No Confidence

48 Conservative MPs required Conservative MPs vote to de- If Successful, Conservative to write letter of no confidence cide the future of the Prime Leadership Election Triggered to to Minister. 158 votes are re- find a new party leader. quired to defeat Theresa May.

Conservative Leadership Contest

List of Candidates provided to If more than two, Conservative Two final Candidates voted on the 1922 Committee. MPs vote to whittle down to by Conservative membership two Candidates via the 1922 with the winner becoming new committee using rounds of first Conservative leader past the post.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Leadership contest procedure

A leadership contest can be triggered through the Conservative leader either losing a vote of no confidence or resigning. Vote of no confidence To trigger a vote of no confidence 15 per cent of Conservative MPs write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee saying they no longer have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party. With the current numbers this means this means 48 MPs are required to submit a letter of no confidence. This will then go to a vote of Conserva- tive MPs and they would need a majority of 158 to win. Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, the man who MPs submit their letter to, is the only person who knows how many no-confidence letters have been submitted. Once reached, MPs will vote on if they have confi- dence in the PM. If Mrs May won this vote she would stay in office and could not be challenged for 12 months. If she lost she would have to resign and a leadership contest would be called.

Leadership contest The system of electing the Leader of the Conservative Party consists of two stages: • Conservative Members of Parliament select a choice of two candidates to present to the membership of the whole Party; • Party members vote, on a "one member one vote" basis, for their preferred candidate from a shortlist of two. After the resignation, in a process lasting several weeks, Conservative MPs would then whittle candidates down to the top two. Each candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated in each round of voting. The grassroots party members chose the winner between the final 2 candidates.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Leadership contest procedure (continued)

During the process Conservative MPs select a choice of two candidates to present to the membership of the whole Party. • Nominations for the role must reach the chief whip of the party before being sent to the chairman of the 1922 committee- this process normally occurs on a Thursday. • Candidates for leadership must be currently sitting MPs In the case that more than two MPs are nominated, other MPs in the party must decide on two leading candi- dates through voting, using the first past the post system. Once two candidates have been selected by MPs via the 1922 committee, it is up to the wider party membership to vote on which of the two individuals they would like to be leader. Selection by the wider party always happens via a postal ballot. The 2016 leadership contest saw were five candidates in the first ballot held on Tuesday 5 July. • • • • • Theresa May Voting took place between 11:00 and 18:00 with the results announced by Graham Brady, the chairman of 1922 Committee. This saw Liam Fox eliminated with the fewest votes and Stephen Crabb opt to drop out. A second round of voting saw Theresa May finishing top again and Andrea Leadsom beating Michael Gove to second place. May and Lead- som would have then gone went head to head in a ballot to the Conservative Party membership, however Lead- som dropped out of the race.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

General Election and the Fixed Term Parliament Act

With growing speculation about a potential attempt to remove Theresa May as Prime Minister through a vote of no confidence following her draft Brexit deal and subsequent Cabinet resignations, many on the opposition benches are repeating their calls for a General Election. While Theresa May being removed as Conservative Lead- er does not automatically trigger a General Election this possibility does remain. Introduced in 2010, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act aimed to limit the possibility of General Elections being called at opportune moments for political gain. How could this happen within the constraints of the Act? There are two main ways that an early General Election could be triggered.

• The first is a two-thirds majority vote by Parliament in favour of said election. While a new Conservative leader, does not automatically lead to a General Election a new Government would need to be established and if a new leader chose to strengthen their position they might move in this direction. However, there is plenty of precedent for having a Prime Ministers unelected via a General Election serving for some time. For example Gordon Brown never won an election after becoming Labour leader and PM, so the new Con- servative Prime Minister may instruct his or her party to hold tight for 2020.

• Should the new Leader choose not to call an election, it seems unlikely the two-thirds majority would be achievable without a seismic split in the Conservative Party. The second way of triggering a General Election under the Act would therefore have to be considered.

• This second procedure requires a straightforward majority of MPs to pass a motion of no confidence in the Government, then for no countering confidence motion to be passed within 14 days. This of course could occur separately from any Conservative party challenge to Theresa May.

• Alternatively, should the new Conservative leader fail to form a Government within 14 days a General Elec- tion would automatically be triggered.

• Of MPs who would vote, 334 are non-Conservative (however there are 7 Sinn Fein and 4 Speaker/Deputy Speakers who would not vote) com- pared to 316 Conservative MPs

• Therefore, a new Conservative Govern- ment would be reliant on its Confidence and supply deal with the DUP.

• The possibility that Conservative MPs could rebel and vote against their new leader is still however a possibility.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile: Penny Mordaunt

How likely is a leadership bid While many expected Penny Mordaunt to resign from Cabinet as she failed to come out in support of the PM’s deal, the fact she did not does not change the fact Mordaunt is thought a likely candidate to put herself forward for leadership. The MP has shown herself capable as a Minister steadily rising through the ranks to become Secretary of State for International Development and Minister for Women and Equalities. To many the former head of Broadcasting for the Conservative Party and MP for Portsmouth North set out her stall for leadership at ahead of Conservative Party Conference in September with a fiery article on ConservativeHome. In an article where she set out her “twelve new rules of politics” Mordaunt em- phasised that there had been a loss of trust in leaders. Political views Mordaunt describes herself as a Eurosceptic, but loyally voted against a referendum on membership of the , saying it would achieve nothing. A potential candidate representing pro-Brexit MPs but potentially more palatable to other factions of the party Mordaunt’s pro-Brexit view would likely work in her favour. Delivering her on the Royal Navy, she is a regular speaker on a number of issues and is thought to have impressed calling for more resources for the Government Equalities Office.

“I feel very strongly that we must honour the re- sult of the referendum and the expectations of the British public in that.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile:

How likely is a leadership bid To quote his former cabinet colleague , Johnson has “been on a permanent leadership bid” since his return to Parliament in 2015. His weekly Telegraph column, which nets him an additional salary of £250,00 per year, is frequently used as a platform for Johnson to espouse his proposals for an alternative Government. A leading figure of the Vote Leave campaign, Johnson initially planned to launch a leadership bid in the 2016 battle, but backed away following the decision of his erstwhile colleague Michael Gove to run. It seems unlikely that he will be so hesitant this time. Political views Johnson was the face of the Leave campaign and has passionately advocated for a harder line with the European Union. In recent months, he has implored the leadership to “Chuck Chequers” and said that May’s draft deal would leave the UK as a “Vassal State”. Away from Brexit, he has received criticism from some quarters for the fluidity of his views – once seen as belonging to the more liberal side of the party, Johnson has increasingly flirted with right-wing popu- list ideals in recent months. Comments about burkhas in his weekly Telegraph column were perceived by some as racist and other articles have placed emphasis on topics such as freedom of speech, a reduc- tion in the foreign aid budget and, perhaps surprisingly, animal welfare.

“There comes a point when you have to stand up to bullies. After more than two years of being ruthlessly pushed around by the EU, it is time for the UK to resist.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile: David Davis

How likely is a leadership bid Davis has twice been an unsuccessful contender for the leadership of the Conservative Party, most re- cently in 2005 when he lost to . He looked consigned to a life on the backbenches, but Brexit has brought him back into the fold, first as Brexit Secretary and now as a leading voice against Theresa May’s Brexit strategy. He has ambition and a clear ideology but, at 69, may be seen as too old to commit to becoming Prime Minister. Political views Davis was a euro-sceptic long before it was in vogue and resigned from his previous role as the Brexit Secretary out of opposition to May’s proposed deal. He has been vocal in his criticism of draft agree- ment. Davis has a reputation for defending traditional British civil liberties. He fought and comfortably won a by-election in 2008 after sensationally resigning his seat in a protest over civil liberties, and led attacks on identity cards, surveillance and the database state, while insisting on toughness against ter- rorism and law and order. Critics have pointed out that, though a civil libertarian, he is far from liberal on some social issues. He is in favour of capital punishment, and supported the ban on the promotion of homosexuality by local au- thorities. He voted against the lowering of the age of homosexual consent, against adoption by homo- sexual couples and for a lowering of the time limit for abortion. He opposes same-sex marriage.

“There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile: Jacob Rees-Mogg

How likely is a leadership bid One of the most recognisable backbenchers in Parliament, Rees-Mogg has long been touted by the me- dia as a potential contender for the leadership. Speaking to the press after handing in his letter to Gra- ham Brady, however, he ruled out running for the leadership himself – instead he suggested David Da- vis, Boris Johnson, Esther McVey and Dominic Raab as potential candidates. A darling of the Tory grassroots membership, Rees-Mogg splits opinion within the parliamentary party and would be a contentious choice as a leader. But his opinion matters and his influence as chair of the influential ERG make Rees-Mogg a potential kingmaker in any contest. Political views As the head of the rabidly pro-Brexit , Jacob Rees-Mogg is as firmly behind leaving as anyone in Parliament. Rees-Mogg sees himself as a “”, with a belief in a smaller state, low taxes and deregulation. He believes help for poorer countries should be a matter for private charity, not government overseas aid. He was one of only three MPs who voted for Phillip Davies’ Bill to outlaw affirmative action by public authorities and discrimination in favour of women in parliamentary selections. He voted in favour of a partial relaxation of the smoking ban. A member of the socially conservative , he voted against same-sex marriage, saying on such matters he took his whip from the Roman Catholic hierarchy rather than the Whips’ Office.

“I think the idea of a sec- ond referendum is perfect- ly ridiculous.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile: Michael Gove

How likely is a leadership bid Having come third in 2016 leadership contest, following a dramatic last minute switch from being Boris Johnson’s campaign manager to candidate, the Environment Secretary Michael Gove could potentially make a second attempt. Following the fallout of his failed bid Gove has worked hard to shake off reputational damage, in the most recent example, by vowing to shore up Theresa May following the chain of resignations prompted by the draft withdrawal agreement. Leaving the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy are his key achievements as a leading Brexiteer in May’s Cabinet. Following Domic Raab’s resignation, he was offered the role of Brex- it secretary, but rejected being told there was no prospect of him being allowed to renegotiate the deal. Political views While he has been reported to privately be concerned by the PM’s deal he is now being reported he has opted to remain in Government to work with other Brexit backing cabinet ministers to urge to seek im- provements. Famously a Minister not afraid of reforming or making waves in Department’s , Gove shot into the pub- lic eye when he set out his root-and-branch reform of schools, aiming to return to more traditional forms of teaching and examining. Following May’s successful leadership bid Gove was moved into the role of Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs where he has led a war on single-use plastics.

“It’s absolutely vital we focus on getting the right deal for the future and making sure that in the areas that matter so much for people we can get a good outcome.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile:

How likely is a leadership bid Sajid Javid has risen on the public agenda recently after moving to after the resignation of . Whilst he has never expressed an interest in leadership previously, there were rumours that he would have been made Chancellor of the Exchequer had Stephen Crabb won leadership in 2016. Since being made Home Secretary he has demonstrated his independence of mind and reaching out across the party, but questions still remain around whether he would be better off waiting to announce his leadership bid. Political views Javid regularly contributed to debates as a backbencher, particularly on financial and economic matters. Not afraid to challenge Conservative policy, he helped secure funds for new local council building in 2017 budget as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, denounced the “hostile environment” term, and put medicinal cannabis on the Governments agenda after being newly appointed as Home Secretary. He has consistently supported foreign military intervention having voted for intervening in Libya, as well as, air strikes in Iraq and Syria.

“If Brexit feels like a dividing line in our country now…just imagine what it would feel like if we didn’t follow-through with the result of the referendum.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile:

How likely is a leadership bid Putney MP and former Secretary of State for Education, Justine Greening hasn’t shied away from the question of leadership, telling in October 2018 that she wants to succeed Theresa May, stating: “Things need to change.” Having described herself as centre right of the party, Greening might appear to be an attractive option for those looking to fight off the brexiteers.

Political views Greening has often been seen as a “fresh faced Tory” having argued for the end of austerity and estab- lishing the Social Mobility Pledge after returning to backbenches in 2018. As Secretary of State for Edu- cation she remained sceptical about free schools and recently told the BBC that the party needed to "recommit" being "the party of opportunity," adding that they needed to see "the leadership and the strategy to deliver this".

A very vocal remainer, Greening has called for a second referendum after criticising Theresa May’s Chequer’s plan for “pleasing no one.” She proposed using a system that would capture first and second preferences to ensure that the preferred model achieved more than 50 per cent of the final vote. Greening once again announced her support for ‘People’s vote’ during the recent withdrawal debate on Thursday.

“The government and parlia- ment must recognise we should give people a final say on Brexit”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Candidate profile:

How likely is a leadership bid Recently turned after a rocky period at the Department of Health, Hunt has been keeping a noticeably low profile over the past few days. Whilst his loyalty to May has so far been re- warded with a series of prestigious Cabinet positions, he’s considered to be a ‘compromise candidate’ for a potential leadership election remains a likely contender.

Political views Hunt publicly supported remain in the 2016 Referendum, but has since adopted a Eurosceptic mantle, citing the behaviour of the European Commission as the cause of his change of heart. His ‘born again Brexiteer’ approach caused controversy at the Conservative Party Conference, where his comment comparing the European Union to the Soviet Union was less than well received. Aside from Brexit, Hunt achieved a £20bn cash ‘gift’ to the NHS as Health Secretary and held the post for longer than any other individual, despite years of exceptionally strained relations with NHS stake- holders. He identifies as a one-nation conservative and was called a "metropolitan liberal" by the Financial Times earlier this year.

“If you turn the EU club into a prison, the desire to get out won’t diminish, it will grow. And we won’t be the only pris- oner that will want to escape.”

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Other potential candidates

Dominic Raab With a low-key stint as a player in the ever revolving circus of housing ministers, Raab’s star has fallen since the one-time rumours that he was a leadership contender back in January. May was scared enough of the pro- spect to keep him out of Cabinet then, and his appointment as Brexit Sec- retary did little to improve his prospects. One of May's first steps was to announce No10 was the 'chief negotiator' - a demotion for the role of Brexit secretary. Despite less influence, and a nervous debut press con- ference, Raab is still considered an outside contender for the top job.

Priti Patel Vocal Brexiteer and former Secretary of State for International Develop- ment , could well put her bid in for leadership having re- mained critical of Theresa May’s approach to Brexit. Having announced proudly to Politics Home that she is “a massive Thatcherite and apolo- gies to no one for that”, she continues to speak of the opportunities that can arise from Brexit, a tone many leave voters could find attractive.

Philip Hammond A long-serving frontbencher who has served as Transport Secretary, De- fence Secretary, Foreign Secretary and now Chancellor, he is a passion- ate remainer who is despised by the Tory Brexiteers. It is unlikely that he would wish to stand in the Tory election battle; one of the leading “remainers” in the Cabinet, he has been roundly criticised for his contin- uing support for Mark Carney and his often-pessimistic view of opportu- nities post-Brexit.

Amber Rudd Recently re-appointed to the front benches following a notably brief spell on the backbenches, it is currently unlikely that she would wish to push through Brexit, particularly as she called for a People’s Vote towards the end of September. An ardent remainer, she contended with Boris John- son in the pre-Brexit referendum debates.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Other potential candidates

Tom Tugendhat An army reservist who was elected in 2015, Tugendhat has risen quickly, becoming chair of the influential Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Tipped as a future Tory leader, he told Sky News recently that voters will probably want “change” once Brexit is dealt with. An attractive alternative to some of the older candidates. A remainer who has spoken about his passion to “serve”, he has teamed up with Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson to develop a new thinktank called Onward, which seeks to create “retail policies” to appeal to the un- der-45s who abandoned the at the last election.

Andrea Leadsom Appointed as Environment Secretary after dropping out of the leadership race against May, Leadsom was considered by some as out of her depth at DEFRA. Caricatured in Tim Shipman’s Fallout as contributing essentially nothing to Cabinet discussions, barring some left-field comments on ba- by’s brains, a comeback for Leadsom is highly unlikely. The 3rd-best- option for most Brexiteers, after Gove and Boris, she would need a lot of luck to get a shot at the top job (- and to remember not to mention any- thing about her views on motherhood to anyone from the Times).

Nicky Morgan Famously banned from No10 by Fiona Hill for criticising Theresa May’s choice of trousers for a photo shoot, the Chair of the Treasury select com- mittee could garner the support of ’s remainer caucus. Po- litically moderate, and seen as very ambitious, she could be one to watch, though she probably lacks the requisite profile needed to swing MPs be- hind a bid.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Other potential candidates

Liam Fox Fox has kept a relatively low profile at the DIT. While Cabinet Brexiteer colleagues have fallen like dominos he has carved out a reputation as a pragmatist, and fervently believer that a no deal Brexit must be avoided. Could be one to watch.

James Cleverly Deputy-Chairman of the Conservative party, the MP for Braintree has long been mooted a possible leadership candidate. Popular with the grassroots and a TA officer to boot, it is easy to see the appeal. However, without any Cabinet experience, he will probably count himself out the next race and instead throw his backing behind old friend Boris, if given the chance.

David Lidington With a slightly obscure role as Minister for the committed Mayite Lidington would have trouble carving out a differing political di- rection, having become inexorably intertwined with “Mayism”. Standing in for her at PMQs he has proved a confident performer but lacks the cut through with the grass roots or MPs to win a leadership contest.

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018) Leadership Briefing 2018

Essential information and connections

London 11th Floor | The Shard | 32 London Bridge Street | London SE1 9SG

Brussels 7th Floor | Rue du Trône 60 | Brussels 1050 | Belgium

Edinburgh 32 Calton Road | Edinburgh | EH8 8DP

Paris 315 Bureaux de la Colline | 92213 Saint-Cloud cedex | Paris

+44 20 7593 5500 +44 20 7593 5501 [email protected] www.dodsgroup.com

Registered in number: 04267888 © Dods Group plc 2017

Dods Monitoring: Leadership Briefing (November 2018)