January 2015 . Vol 8 . Issue 1

Contents The Paris Attack: A Campaign

FEATURE ARTICLE 1 The Paris Attack: A Campaign and its and its Goals Goals By Brian Dodwell By Brian Dodwell

Reports 5 From Sydney to Paris: The Return of Terrorist Barricade Hostage Incidents? By Adam Dolnik

8 A View from the CT Foxhole: An Interview with Major General Wayne W. Grigsby, Jr., CJTF-HoA By LTC Bryan Price

11 The Causes and Impact of Political Assassinations By Arie Perliger

14 Britain’s Terror Threat from the Levant By Raffaello Pantucci

18 German Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq By Daniel H. Heinke and Jan Raudszus

21 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts egardless of how the debate similar in aims to the Charlie Hebdo attack over the degree to which the was the plot against Jyllands-Posten, the perpetrators were directed or same Danish paper where Westergaard inspired shakes out, the tragic worked. Ilyas Kashmiri, the al-Qa`ida Rattack against Charlie Hebdo in Paris on operative who was directing the plot, January 7 was not an isolated incident. wanted the attackers to infiltrate the This event is best understood as being office, assassinate employees, decapitate part of a loosely coordinated jihadist them, and then throw their heads out the campaign against media and journalistic window.1 About the CTC Sentinel entities in response to the release of The Combating Terrorism Center is an cartoons or other material deemed Jihadis have purposefully and repeatedly independent educational and research offensive to Muslims. targeted such provocateurs due to the institution based in the Department of Social clear, and in some respects unique, Sciences at the United States Military Academy, Previous attacks include the murder benefits and effects achieved by striking West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses of Theo van Gogh in 2004, a Danish such targets. This article will assess the the Center’s global network of scholars and filmmaker whose 10-minute film about appeal of this target set to jihadis from practitioners to understand and confront violence against Muslim women earlier a strategic perspective. In doing so, it contemporary threats posed by terrorism and that year angered many Muslims. focuses beyond the obvious emotions the other forms of political violence. In addition, Danish cartoonist Kurt cartoons generated due to their perceived Westergaard has survived multiple offensive and blasphemous content. murder attempts after publishing a The views expressed in this report are those of controversial 2005 cartoon, and Lars the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, Vilks, a Swedish cartoonist, was the 1 Carrie Johnson, “U.S. citizen David Coleman Headley the Department of the Army, or any other agency target of numerous plots, including one admits role in Mumbai attacks,” The Washington Post, of the U.S. Government. hatched by three U.S. citizens. Most March 19, 2010.

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Rather, it examines the strategic goals One of the core reasons why jihadis audience of their recruitment efforts. of jihadis to inspire sympathizers are motivated to attack the producers It adds to a pre-existing sense of to commit violence, to exacerbate and distributors of these materials is collective humiliation and feeds into a social divisions, and to provoke a genuine outrage over their perceived desire to lash back. Little to no further heavy-handed and counterproductive offensive and blasphemous nature. This explanation or justification is required. response. is likely the most important proximate motivator for the actual attackers In addition, a successful attack on such a An Attractive Target themselves, who, goaded by urging from target only enhances the reputation (and On the one hand, the goals of the Charlie jihadi propagandists, are looking for future recruiting power) of the group Hebdo attack were no different than retribution for what they believe to be that can credibly take responsibility those of any terrorist attack committed direct attacks against Islam and its most for the action. In the case of Paris, against an adversary’s homeland (e.g. sacred principles. As Cherif Kouachi targeting Charlie Hebdo allows AQAP and to project strength and capability, stated in an interview conducted while the broader jihadist enterprise to tie the generate fear and unrest in the broader he was holed up in a printing factory operation to broad-based grievances population, influence government policy outside Paris following the attacks, “We held by a large portion of Muslims with and action, and enhance recruitment). are not killers. We are defenders of the regard to these cartoons and others like But on the other, the selection of prophet.”5 them. Claiming responsibility for the this specific target set significantly attack on Charlie Hebdo allowed AQAP magnifies these desired effects due to Strategic Goals to position itself as a bold, front-line the nature of the target and the degree For the groups that aim to inspire defender of Islam. It projects itself as to which it animates the emotions of such attacks, however, there are more an organization that was willing to both the jihadis’ constituency base (due strategic calculations in play. While act when others would not or could to the perceived attack on Islam) and the outrage of senior jihadi leaders over not, which also instantly increases the the broader population of the target such publications is likely equally as group’s relevance at a time when it has country (due to the perceived attack on genuine as that of their followers, they arguably been eclipsed by the Islamic freedom of speech). can also see the strategic opportunities State in Iraq and the Levant. And while the publications present. These it is true that many Muslims, including Undeterred by recent failed plots, and opportunities are at least three-fold: some Muslim leaders, have firmly presumably animated by the continuing they are the perfect tool for inspiring denounced the attack,6 those are not attractiveness of these targets (and action by adherents; they exacerbate the Muslims AQAP is speaking to in the benefits even failed attacks offer), social divides; and they invite charges of its statement. Rather, it is focused on jihadi organizations maintained hypocrisy and repression if the jihadis jihadi sympathizers and fence-sitters their commitment to advocating for can provoke their state-actor enemies considering, but not yet sold on taking continued attempts. Inspire, the al- into reacting with heavy-handed violent action. Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula counterterrorism tactics that curtail the (AQAP) English language magazine, very rights their enemies claim to be Exacerbate Social Divides has addressed this topic repeatedly defending. This target set also offers a prime since its inception, devoting eight pages opportunity to further another strategic in the inaugural issue in 2010 to “The Inspire the Believers objective of jihadi organizations that Cartoon Crusade.”2 In the context of the The cartoons offer an ideal motivator target the West, and that is to drive wedges Paris attack, the March 2013 edition of that jihadis can use to enhance their between different communities in the Inspire featured Westergaard, Vilks, two already ongoing campaign to inspire target country and sharpen the dividing Jyllands-Posten editors, the editor of Charlie sympathizers in the West to wage line between value systems. Jihadis Hedbo, Stéphane Charbonnier, and six violence. Motivating adherents by have historically gone to great lengths, other cartoonists, authors, activists, convincing them of the supposed evil primarily through their propaganda, and provocateurs as prime targets on a and duplicitous nature of Western to tear at the fabric of Western society “wanted list…for crimes against Islam.”3 foreign policy is certainly doable (and is by highlighting controversial issues Although there is some skepticism about historically the most common motivator and societal divides in an attempt to the level of AQAP’s direct involvement for homegrown jihadist activity), but undermine the multicultural framework in the Paris attack–despite that group’s it does require at least a rudimentary that liberal societies champion, and in January 14 claim of responsibility–it understanding of global events and turn undermine public support for the appears that at a minimum AQAP a compelling narrative to convince government. played a significant inspirational role.4 someone to turn against their country. However, a cartoon mocking the prophet offers up a propaganda and incitement 2 Inspire, Issue 1, Summer 2010, pp. 21-28. slam dunk. Nothing rallies the base like 6 It must be noted that while many denounced the at- 3 Inspire, Issue 10, Spring 2013, pp. 14-15. a target that presents such an affront to tacks themselves, this did not necessarily translate to a 4 It is unclear whether the Paris plot was hatched prior to the values held so dear by the intended defense of Charlie Hebdo’s right to produce the cartoons the particular issue of Inspire cited here, but as described in the first place. The widespread protests in the Muslim above, AQAP has been advocating for attacks against world in response to the newspaper’s first post-attack these targets for years, and travel by one of the Kouachi 5 Emmanuelle Saliba, “Paris Killer Cherif Kouachi Gave edition and its depiction of the prophet demonstrate the brothers to AQAP territory clearly points to AQAP’s in- Interview to TV Channel Before He Died,” NBC News, dividing line between rejection of terrorism and defense spirational role, at a bare minimum. January 9, 2015. of freedom of speech.

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Al-Qa’ida and its affiliates have discrimination that exists in America. to attract media attention, there are few repeatedly done this in the past, The polls show that a majority are against better targets than the media itself, as targeting via their propaganda, the building of the mosque even though such attacks prompt a vigorous defense for example, the African American the sponsors of the project profess to of its brethren and their rights to free community with references to slavery, being patriotic loyal Americans. Isn’t it speech.13 civil rights abuses, and more recent time that American Muslims wake up to flash points in American race relations the fact that America is Islam’s number This response is welcomed by jihadis, (to include commentary about the one enemy?”9 as it offers yet another opportunity to 2014 events in Ferguson, Missouri, by highlight the polarization of communities numerous jihadist sympathizers online). Anwar al-Awlaki, an AQAP leader and and values. The “freedom of speech” In addressing these issues, al-Qa’ida is prolific propagandist who was killed defense put forward in the West after asking the African American community in 2011, also regularly contextualized attacks of this nature is vehemently why it would support a government current events in this manner in an rejected by jihadis, notably by Usama that has, in its view, repeatedly and attempt to convince Muslims in the bin Ladin. In a March 2008 release, consistently discriminated against it. West that their support for their he states that even the U.S. bombing Aymen al-Zawahiri emphasizes this government was unjustified and of Muslim lands pales in comparison at length in a 2007 interview. He also dangerous to their own welfare. As was to the “publishing of these defaming specifically addresses African American seen time and time again,10 to include, drawings….This is the greater and more soldiers: “I am hurt when I find a black apparently, in the Charlie Hebdo case,11 serious disaster, and punishment for it American fighting the Muslims under Awlaki was remarkably successful in will be harsher.” He then argues that the American flag. Why is he fighting this endeavor. His broader message is the “excuse” of freedom of expression us when the racist Crusader regime summed up in a March 2010 statement: is hypocritical at best due to what he in America is persecuting him like it “Muslims of the West, take heed and argues is the West’s willingness to persecutes us, and oppressing him like learn from the lessons of history: there violate its own laws and stated values it oppresses us?”7 are ominous clouds gathering in your when it so chooses. He warns, “If there horizon. Yesterday America was a land is no check on the freedom of your Of course, the primary focus of these of slavery, segregation, lynching, and words, then let your hearts be open to efforts at exacerbating societal rifts Ku Klux Klan, and tomorrow it will be the freedom of our actions.”14 It was this has been on Muslims in the West. a land of religious discrimination and last phrase that AQAP used to lead off For example, jihadis repeatedly and concentration camps. Don’t be deceived its claim of responsibility for the Charlie often deftly seize on opportunities to by the promises of preserving your rights Hebdo attack. “demonstrate” how the society many from a government that is right now Muslim-Americans think is relatively killing your own brothers and sisters…. Strategy of Provocation tolerant of their faith will ultimately The West will eventually turn against By instigating attacks on targets like turn on them and reveal its true colors its Muslim citizens.”12 After setting this Charlie Hebdo, jihadis achieve a third key as a society in which Muslims are not up, any future perceived discrimination strategic benefit through the value such allowed to prosper. While some of these can be claimed as fulfillment of his attacks have in successfully executing the opportunities for jihadi propagandists prophecy. classic terrorist strategy of provocation. came in the form of fringe provocateurs First popularized and proven effective who garnered little sympathy or support The benefit of the cartoon publications by the anti-colonial movements of the from the broader population (see Terry for those jihadis looking to demonstrate 1920s to 1960s,15 this strategy seeks Jones, the Florida pastor who has been societal divides is that those incidents to goad the target government into a involved in several incidents of anti- require even less contextualization and response that harms civilians from Muslim activity),8 in other cases groups manipulation than these other cases in within the terrorist organization’s like AQAP were able to weigh in on more order to be used effectively as evidence community (in this case, community in mainstream controversies and debates. of the West’s alleged discrimination the religious sense), thereby persuading A notable example of such a debate against Muslims, due to how starkly the audience that the target of attacks is was the dispute over the placement of they offended the vast majority of evil, untrustworthy, and an enemy that a mosque near the Ground Zero site in Muslims around the world. And there must be vigorously resisted.16 As one New York City. Inspire’s second issue, is the added benefit that when looking in Fall 2010, states, “The NY Cordoba 13 See Brian Fishman, “Jihadis Are Not Only Attacking mosque issue reveals to us the religious 9 Inspire, Issue 2, Fall 2010, p. 7. the Media; They are Using It,” War on the Rocks, Janu- 10 The New America Foundation Homegrown Ex- ary 15, 2015. 7 “Interview with Shaykh Aymen al-Zawahiri,” As-Sa- tremism database reports that 63 of the 258 individuals 14 Usama bin Ladin, “May our Mothers Become Be- hab Media, April/May 2007. charged with jihadist terrorism in the United States since reaved if we do not Support our Prophet (Peace be Upon 8 While the actions of Jones were utilized to great effect 2001 were influenced by Awlaki; see http://securitydata. Him),” Audio Statement, March 19, 2008. to incite anger against the United States internationally, newamerica.net/extremists/analysis 15 David C. Rapaport, “The Four Waves of Rebel Terror his actions are less useful in terms of driving societal 11 Catherine E. Shoichet and Josh Levs, “Al Qaeda and September 11,” Anthropoetics, Vol. 8 No. 1, Spring/ wedges domestically in the United States, given that no Branch Claims Charlie Hebdo Attack was Years in the Summer 2002. significant segment of the community would publicly Making,” CNN, January 14, 2015. 16 Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, “The Strat- come to his defense due to the extreme nature of his ac- 12 Anwar al-Awlaki, “A Message to the American Peo- egies of Terrorism,” International Security, Vol. 31, No. 1 tions and words. ple,” March 2010. (Summer 2006), p. 69.

3 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 expert writing on the Basque conflict in proceed to enact or support measures Battle of Algiers, the classic film about the Spain points out, “Nothing radicalizes that members of Muslim minority Algerian war for independence over 50 a people faster than the unleashing of communities may perceive as limiting years ago and the lessons the French undisciplined security forces on its their freedoms, such as relaxing learned regarding the dangers of using towns and villages.”17 restrictions on intelligence collection. disproportionate and heavy-handed To complete the cycle, jihadis then use tactics in response to terrorist attacks. In the context of these attacks on this perceived hypocrisy to instigate Given the persistence of the jihadist producers of inflammatory material, future attacks. threat over the last decade, it is important and the broader jihadi effort to inspire to remember that the endurance and attacks in the West, one of the goals is This challenge became evident in the long-term appeal of global jihadism to provoke a government response that aftermath of the Paris attack. After is as much about how we respond and will exacerbate the social cleavages the assault, the French Ministry of the actions we take. While a strong and described above. While today’s Justice directed prosecutors to react effective response is required, equally Western governments rarely use the firmly. As a result, prosecutors began as important is that the West does not brutal tactics that were more routinely to aggressively apply a November 2014 allow itself to be blindly led down the employed by colonial powers over a half law that prohibits speech that might path by the jihadis. century ago, there has been a plethora invoke or support violence. This law of antiterror legislation, administrative was rarely used prior to the attacks, Given the strategic goals of jihadis measures, and intelligence collection but up to 100 people have been placed to inspire sympathizers to commit enhancements enacted in response under investigation since then, to violence, exacerbate social divisions, to terrorist attacks and plots on the include several already receiving jail and provoke a heavy-handed and homeland. In many cases, these measures sentences for verbalizing support for counterproductive response, Western are seen by Muslims in the West as the actions of the attackers.20 So the counterterrorism policy must be unfairly targeting that community and expected jihadi narrative is clear: the carefully calibrated to maintain the infringing on their civil liberties.18 right of the majority to disseminate precarious balance between security This enhances the jihadi narrative of material offensive to a minority must and liberty. Getting this balance correct repression of Muslims by the West, be defended, while members of the is critically important, lest the West and in turn maximizes the recruiting minority population will be jailed for play into the hands of their terrorist base. And the provocation is not merely saying things deemed offensive by the adversaries and allow them to achieve targeted at Western governments, but majority. those goals. also the broader population. Anti- Islamic protests and vigilantism that This is not to say that enhancing In the past, the prescribed best often occurs in response to such attacks antiterrorism and counterterrorism response to a terrorist group’s only serves to reinforce the message that measures in the aftermath of an attack is provocation strategy was to focus on Muslims are not welcome in Western not appropriate. States have a right and a enhanced intelligence capabilities in society.19 responsibility to defend themselves after order to avoid collateral damage by all. But when it comes to propaganda the military.22 The events of the last Targeting the producers of perceived this is not the point. If there is even a decade suggest this prescription needs offensive material to provoke a heavy- hint of hypocrisy or discrimination in to be further refined, as the intelligence handed response has the added benefit a resulting counterterrorism action, an collection itself is perceived as causing of “proving” the hypocrisy that jihadis effective propagandist can exploit it to harm to the community. The focus must argue is inherent in Western policy drive home the repression narrative, be on intelligence and counterterrorism towards Muslims. After such an attack, regardless of the actual benefit to public actions that are effective and are mindful politicians, media, and the general safety that may result from such actions of the costs of violating civil liberties, public alike rightly decry the assault or policies. This is not an argument and, above all, avoiding policies that on freedom of speech, and then some for or against specific antiterrorism are neither. or counterterrorism policies, just a call to ensure the effects of each are Brian Dodwell is the Deputy Director of the 17 Ibid., p. 70. The authors are citing: Paddy Woodworth, considered.21 Combating Terrorism Center at West Point and “Why Do They Kill? The Basque Conflict in Spain,”World Assistant Professor in the Department of Social Policy Journal, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Spring 2001), p. 7. Conclusion Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy, West 18 For examples of such concerns, see Faiza Patel, “Re- While the context and environment has Point. thinking Radicalization,” Brennan Center for Justice, obviously completely changed, one’s 2011. mind cannot help but drift back to the The views expressed here are those of the author 19 As examples of such activity, France’s Interior Minis- French experience portrayed in the and do not reflect the official policy or position try reported more than 50 violent anti-Muslim acts in the of the Department of the Army, Department of six days following the attack, and an anti-Islam rally held Defense, or the U.S. Government. in Germany was attended by 25,000 people. See “Anti- 20 Doreen Carvajal and Alan Cowell, “French Rein in Muslim Acts Escalate After Paris Terrorist Attacks,” Speech Backing Acts of Terror,” The New York Times, France 24, January 13, 2015; and Leon Mangasarian and January 15, 2015. Patrick Donahue, “German Anti-Islam Rally Draws Re- 21 For a comprehensive assessment of the effects of such cord Crowd After Paris Attacks,” Bloomberg, January 13, policies, see J.M. Berger, “Europe Cracks Down,” Foreign 2015. Policy, January 16, 2015. 22 Kydd and Walter, p. 72.

4 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 From Sydney to Paris: situations in which hostage-takers are incremental improvements of response holding hostages in a known location strategies, such as the establishment The Return of Terrorist where containment is possible, have of rapid response units and hostage Barricade Hostage constituted a highly influential negotiation teams. Since publicity has Incidents? terrorist tactic. The live, on-the-scene usually been one of the main goals of broadcasts, minute-by-minute updates, terrorist hostage-taking operations, the dramatic scenes featuring hostage pleas captors could often be persuaded that By Adam Dolnik and terrorist threats, and the possibility they had succeeded in their mission and

of instantaneous forceful resolution that that killing hostages would only hurt On December 15, 2014, at 9:45 a.m., Man they generate keep television viewers their cause in the eyes of the public.4 Haron Monis walked into the Lindt gripped. Further, the reality-show-like The combination of officials stressing Chocolate Café in Sydney’s central nature of the coverage, along with the the attention the terrorists’ cause had business district and took 17 people opportunity for the terrorists to explain already achieved and guaranteeing hostage. Shortly thereafter, images of their grievances fully, are factors that free passage has historically been the hostages holding up a black flag usually succeed in generating a wide the most common formula for the with Arabic script captured the world’s public debate about the moral dilemmas negotiated resolution of politically attention, leaving little doubt about inherent in the options available to the inspired barricade incidents. Such the hostage-taker’s motives. The self- responding government.3 an outcome is sometimes called the declared, Islamic State in Iraq and the “Bangkok Solution,” a term referring to Levant (ISIL) sympathizer managed to Particularly during the era of traditional the 1972 incident in which members of gain worldwide publicity for 16.5 hours, terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s, when Black September took over the Israeli until the New South Wales Police Force groups carefully attempted to strike embassy in Thailand, but after 19 hours tactical team eliminated him following a balance between instilling fear, of negotiations agreed to release their an eruption of violence inside the attracting attention, and striving for hostages and drop all other demands stronghold that also cost two hostages legitimacy and support, these incidents in return for safe passage out of the their lives.1 Then on January 9, 2015, constituted a highly useful terrorist country.5 a chain of events that started in Paris tactic. The ability of barricade hostage with the shooting at the offices of the incidents to attract wide, international Sieges in the Era of the “New Terrorism” satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo led to two attention provided terrorists not only In the next 20 years, however, the simultaneous sieges. The Paris attacks with a highly suitable platform for trends in barricade hostage-taking ultimately cost a total of 17 people their the expression of grievances, but also changed with the rise of the so-called lives (not including the three attackers, the capacity to create pressure on the “new terrorism,” characterized by the who also died).2 enemy government without necessarily dominance of religious ideologies, being associated with the politically increasing lethality of terrorist Both attacks in Sydney and Paris damaging act of killing civilians. The violence, and growing preference for are prominent, recent examples of idea of taking hostages and placing the suicide terrorism. Firstly, with the jihadist barricade hostage sieges, a responsibility for their fate in the hands rise of the “new terrorism,” barricade scenario of very rare occurrence in the of the opposing government was a highly hostage incidents assumed a much less Western context over the last three effective tool in attracting international prominent role in the tactical repertoire decades. However, the quick sequence sympathy for the terrorists’ cause, of terrorist organizations. One of the in which these attacks have occurred especially when the possibility existed main reasons for this development unsurprisingly has raised fears of a to appear “merciful” by later releasing has been the changing nature of the new trend, leading to a debate about the hostages unharmed. Unsurprisingly, terrorists’ goals associated with the the preparedness of Western security the era of traditional terrorism, in religious nature of their ideologies, agencies to deal with such a scenario. which terrorist groups were completely which limited the spectrum of demands dependent on media coverage to spread that could be realistically accomplished This article will contextualize the threat their message, was particularly rich in via a barricade hostage siege. Secondly, and response dynamics of barricade incidents of barricade hostage-takings the growing tactical and technological hostage incidents through an historical and airplane hijackings. capabilities of hostage rescue teams lens, followed by an examination of and intelligence agencies have made the the characteristics of contemporary The incidents of this era were planning and execution of successful hostage sieges and their implications characterized by a relatively low barricade hostage sieges an ever more for counterterrorism policy. level of advance preparedness by challenging task. either side, the inability of hostage- Barricade Hostage Sieges in Historical takers to communicate with their Yet despite this rapid decline in the Perspective commanders once the incident started, Barricade hostages sieges, defined as a low willingness to kill hostages, and 4 G. Dwayne Fuselier and Gary W. Noesner, “Confront- 1 Michelle Innis, “Sydney Hostage Siege Ends With ing the Terrorist Hostage Taker,” FBI Law Enforcement Gunman and 2 Captives Dead as Police Storm Café,” The 3 Adam Dolnik and Keith M. Fitzgerald, Negotiating Hos- Bulletin (1990). New York Times, December 15, 2014. tage Crises with the New Terrorists (Westport, CT: Praeger 5 Edward F. Mickolus, Transnational Terrorism: A Chro- 2 “Charlie Hebdo attack: Three days of terror,” BBC News Security International, 2008). nology of Events, 1968-1979 (Westport, CT: Greenwood Europe, 12 January 2015. Press, 1980), p. 367.

5 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 employment of this tactic, the era of “new made large-scale barricade sieges an that followed the high-profile Mumbai terrorism” did, in fact, feature several unlikely tactic in the Western context. attacks has marginalized traditional prominent barricade hostage sieges, barricade hostage sieges within the with the most prominent examples being The Mumbai Effect tactical repertoires of terrorist groups the 2002 Moscow theater attack and the Another important event that altered even more. 2004 Beslan school siege, in which 129 threat perceptions about response and 334 hostages died, respectively. strategies to barricade hostage sieges In Amenas was the Mumbai siege of 2008, which Seemingly out of the blue, the above Beslan, in particular, represented a featured a seaborne attack on India’s reality changed on January 16, 2013, nightmare scenario. A team of some 50 financial capital via a synchronized with the attack on the Tiguentourine to 70 well-trained hostage-takers, who assault on multiple targets by 10 gas plant in In Amenas, Algeria, where had seized more than 1,200 hostages, attackers, who had clear instructions a four-day siege left 40 hostages dead most of them children, were strategically to kill as many people as possible after the Algerian army stormed the positioned around the school along before they themselves are eliminated location. During the siege, extensive with 127 explosive devices that could be in the fight. Such fidayeen operations negotiations took place throughout activated by three terrorists positioned are different from barricade hostage the first day and a half of the crisis in different parts of the building. The sieges in that their objective is not to between representatives of Statoil and situation was intensified by the cold- hold hostages, but rather to buy enough BP on one side and English-speaking blooded executions of 21 hostages time to achieve the greatest number of hostage-takers on the other.11 In these on the first day and the merciless casualties.9 This was especially evident discussions, considerable progress treatment of hostages who as of the in Mumbai where the gunmen were was made from a hostage negotiation second day of the crisis were denied deceptively trying to portray themselves perspective, but this siege presented access to food or water.6 In the Beslan as hostage-takers, prolonging the another problem–the inability of aftermath, alarmist pundits predicted operation to 60 hours and achieving a Western governments whose citizens the “inevitable” proliferation of similar body count of 166. were among the hostages to influence attacks on targets in the West, but this the actions of the Algerian military never materialized.7 The effect of Mumbai has been a on the ground in In Amenas. The questioning of the traditional contain- Algerian mindset is heavily influenced In fact, barricade hostage sieges all and-negotiate response to terrorist by memories of a very bloody terrorist but disappeared from the repertoire of barricade hostage sieges, with the fear campaign during the 1990s, and could jihadist groups in the Western context, that negotiations only buy more time be summed up as giving total priority presumably because of the logistical for the attackers to kill more people. On to the elimination of the hostage-takers, difficulties involved in organizing the other hand, it is important to realize with the objective of saving the hostages such planning-intensive operations that fidayeen attacks are highly fluid and a distant second. in the face of the tightened scrutiny that the scenario can rapidly shift from of Western intelligence services. A an active-shooter attack to a barricade In the end, the progress made in the talks barricade hostage crisis featuring hostage siege (if the terrorists panic and with the hostage-takers on the phones multiple, well-armed attackers requires chose to survive or if they come across from London and Bergen, Norway, made planning, training, and a great amount a high value target)10 or into a suicide little difference as the Algerian military of synchronization and foresight. bombing (if the attackers are equipped offensive lead to the death of at least Given the fact that jihadist groups have with suicide belts). This fluidity creates 40 hostages. And while the exact plan faced great difficulties in successfully tremendous challenges for response, of the In Amenas siege is not yet clear, mounting a single, centralized terrorist as the dynamic interplay between this attack stands out as a rare example operation on Western soil for nearly negotiation and tactical strategies will of an al-Qa’ida barricade hostage siege a decade after the 7/7 bombing in not always be clear and may change and offers important insights into the London, the general advice given by several times during the course of a group’s negotiating behavior.12 al-Qa’ida to terrorist sympathizers single incident. In any case, the rapid and supporters has been to conduct global proliferation of fidayeen tactics Sydney and Paris: A New Trend? autonomous operations and to aim for Given the remoteness of the In Amenas less sophisticated and less challenging siege, it was not until the recent hostage methods of operation.8 This trend has 9 Adam Dolnik, “Fighting to the Death,” The RUSI Jour- incidents in Sydney and Paris that a nal 155:2 (2010), pp. 60-68. change of perception was triggered in 10 This situation existed in Mumbai as well after the the West about barricade hostage sieges 6 Adam Dolnik, “Negotiating the Impossible? The Be- handlers in Karachi found out from the media about making their way back into terrorist slan Hostage Crisis,” Whitehall Report 2-07 (London: The the presence of a government secretary and three min- arsenals. And even though both events Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security isters among the guests of the Taj hotel. Following this are still fresh and only forthcoming Studies, 2007), p. 46. discovery, the handlers called the attackers in Mum- 7 John Giduck, Terror at Beslan: A Russian Tragedy with bai and issued the following order: “Find those three, Lessons for America’s Schools (Golden, CO: Archangel four persons and then get whatever you want from 11 Statoil ASA Board of Directors, “The In Amenas At- Group, 2005). India.” Transcripts of phone calls between the gun- tack: Report of the investigation into the terrorist attack 8 Adam Dolnik, “13 Years since Tokyo: Re-Visiting the men and their handlers, http://www.webcitation.org/ on In Amenas” (2013). ‘Superterrorism’ Debate,” Perspectives on Terrorism 2:2 query?url=http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/ 12 Adam Dolnik, The In Amenas Gas Plant Siege (forth- (2008). News.aspx/132160&date=2011-04-26. coming 2015).

6 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 investigations can reveal details that were deeply personal with important In contrast, the Paris sieges involved will be crucial to a more complete mental health implications, and in lucid, highly radicalized, and analysis, some preliminary observations this sense the situation was a familiar ideologically fueled hostage-takers, about the contrasting dynamics of these territory for negotiators, who encounter with whom negotiations were bound attacks can be made. mental health issues in up to 85 percent to be challenging because they of all barricade-hostage incidents they encompassed a subject that negotiators Firstly, while the Sydney incident was routinely encounter.15 Monis’ desperate rarely encounter in their work. Further, designed as an actual barricade hostage attempts to link himself to ISIL were the hostage-takers’ training in al-Qa’ida siege, the attacks in Paris were most almost comical, given that he could not camps made them a more formidable foe likely a product of improvisation in the even secure the group’s flag and made at the tactical level. That being said, aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attack, as its acquisition one of his demands.16 And the extent to which the Paris attacks opposed to a premeditated event. This although ISIL posthumously embraced were centrally coordinated by al-Qa’ida distinction has important implications Monis in its English-language magazine is questionable.19 It seems more likely for response strategies as premeditation Dabiq as a “Muslim who resolved to that the planning, target selection, and typically complicates both negotiation join the mujahidin of the Islamic State execution was done by the perpetrators and tactical approaches when compared in their war against the crusader autonomously and that the attack was to spontaneous incidents, in which the coalition,”17 Monis had no organizational not originally designed to involve a perpetrator, with passing time, is likely links whatsoever and was probably barricade-hostage dimension. As more to question the rationality of his or her driven more by personal mental health details continue to emerge, the Paris decision to take hostages. While Man problems than by ideology. siege will present an interesting case Haron Monis walked into the Lindt study for lessons to be incorporated Café with some level of knowledge and In contrast, the Paris attacks were into further training of negotiators and expectation of the situation he was carried out by people with a deep hostage rescue teams. about to encounter, Cherif and Said history of involvement in jihadist Kouachi seemed to have barricaded militancy, who had trained with al- themselves only out of desperation after Qa’ida in Yemen, and had allegedly Conclusion being cornered, putting themselves in met important al-Qa’ida figures such as Terrorist barricade hostage attacks are a comparatively weak position. This Anwar al-Awlaki.18 This commitment seemingly making a comeback with the point of advantage for law enforcement to a cause made negotiation attempts Sydney and Paris scenarios already disappeared rather quickly, however, all the more challenging, as did the fact being dubbed as the “new normal.”20 after Amedy Coulibaly, who allegedly that the terrorists were holding hostages The fact that both ISIL and al-Qa’ida are trained with the Kouachi brothers in following a murderous rampage, putting praising these sieges and are trying to the same terrorist cell, took a group of them in a position of having little to encourage followers to emulate them21 hostages in a supermarket in another lose. only increases the likelihood of copycat part of Paris, forcing the need to attacks in the future. The good news synchronize responses in two different Overall, the Sydney siege seems to for Western countries is that unlike the strongholds.13 So while it was the Sydney have been more of a case of a mentally sieges of Beslan or In Amenas, which siege that bore more signs of volatility unstable individual acting out his featured a large number of well-armed in the beginning, the simultaneity of the issues through ideological channels, hostage-takers ready to repel a rescue two sieges in Paris swiftly turned this with no actual ties to a terrorist group. operation or die along with hundreds dynamic on its head. As such, the negotiation dynamics in of hostages, Sydney- and Paris-style this case did not need to deviate from scenarios represent a much lesser threat Second, there is an important distinction standard, law enforcement frameworks with respect to potential loss of life. that needs to be made with respect for managing sieges involving lone and to the radically different motivations mentally unstable hostage-takers, whom among the perpetrators of both attacks. negotiators are used to encountering on 19 Al-Qa’ida desperately needs some spotlight in its While in both instances there was a regular basis. competition with ISIL. Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Penin- clearly an ideological dimension, the sula (AQAP) released a video on January 14, 2014, via its attack in Sydney was essentially a case official media wing, the al-Malahim Media Foundation, of psychopathology in search of a cause, stating that, “We, AQAP, claim responsibility for this as opposed to a real terrorist incident. charges and accessory to murder,” The Sydney Morning operation as vengeance for the messenger of God.” The Monis was essentially a person in deep Herald, December 16, 2014. video claimed that AQAP leadership, “chose the target, personal crisis, having been charged 15 Michael McMains and Wayman Mullins, Crisis Nego- laid the plan, financed the operation, and appointed its with more than 40 counts of sexual tiations: Managing Critical Incidents and Hostage Situations emir.” However, no martyrdom videos or other hard evi- assault and as an accessory to the in Law Enforcement and Corrections (Dayton, OH: Ander- dence were offered in support of their claim, so questions nd murder of his former wife.14 His issues son Publishing, 2 edition, 2001), p. 231. still remain. Also, the fact that Amedy Coulibaly claimed 16 Bibby and Hall. to be affiliated with ISIL while the Kouachi brothers 17 Michael Safi, “Sydney siege gunman Man Haron Mo- claimed to belong to AQAP casts significant doubt on the 13 Meghan Keneally, “Paris Terror Attack Live Updates: nis praised in Isis publication,” The Guardian, December attack being centrally planned from abroad. Suspects Killed in Both Hostage Locations,” ABC News, 29, 2014. 20 Nancy Youssef, “The Paris Attack Is ‘The New Nor- January 9, 2015. 18 David Blair, “Charlie Hebdo attack: Anwar al-Awla- mal,’ U.S. Officials Say,” The Daily Beast, January 9, 14 Paul Bibby and Louise Hall, “Sydney siege gunman ki – the al-Qaeda ideologue who may have inspired the 2015. Man Haron Monis was on bail for 40 sexual assault massacre,” The Telegraph, January 9, 2015. 21 Safi.

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Quite simply, while barricade hostage A View from the CT Operationally, we are on the border of sieges receive a lot of attention and U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Central involve great drama, they are extremely Foxhole: An Interview with Command, and two additional combatant difficult to carry out successfully, Major General Wayne W. commands–U.S. Special Operations especially for “lone wolves” and small Grigsby, Jr., Commander, Command and U.S. Transportation groups of homegrown terrorists with Command–have significant equities limited resources and experience. The CJTF-HoA here. impact of stress and fatigue is difficult for perpetrators to predict or handle; By LTC Bryan Price CJTF-HoA works by, with, and effects of time will wear them down; and through our joint, interagency, controlling a large number of hostages A Note From the CTC Director: The CTC intergovernmental, and multinational is difficult with only a single attacker or is launching what will be a recurring teammates . . . actually, I think we work a small number of attackers. Moreover, feature in the CTC Sentinel called, “A behind, beside, and below because we police negotiation and tactical teams in View From the CT Foxhole,” in which enable these regional actors to neutralize Western countries have a significant key counterterrorism practitioners and violent extremist organizations. We capability in responding to these small- policymakers are interviewed by CTC staff also enable counterterrorism efforts scale incidents. Unlike In Amenas about their perspective on contemporary writ large by sharing information and or Beslan, Sydney- and Paris-style issues in terrorism and political violence. building partner capacity. Ultimately, scenarios do not represent unfamiliar We hope you enjoy this new initiative, and we are successful if we enable and assist territory. we look forward to receiving feedback from East Africans to solve East African our readers on future interviewees and problems, one of which–I repeat, one of In conclusion, the most important topics. To inaugurate this new feature, which–is combating terrorism. recommendation for counterterrorism we interviewed Major General Wayne W. policy, besides continuing to strengthen Grigsby, Jr. CTC: When people think of combating negotiation and tactical response terrorism in East Africa, most immediately capabilities of law enforcement agencies, Biography: Major General Wayne W. think of al-Shabab. What is your current is to avoid panic and overreaction to Grigsby, Jr., assumed command of the assessment of the group? the latest wave of attacks. After all, Combined Joint Task Force–Horn of barricade hostage sieges provide more Africa (CJTF-HoA) in January 2013. His MG Grigsby: You are right. Most people options to save lives when an attack is prior assignments include Director of immediately ask me about al-Shabab, already underway than is the case with Army Training on the Army’s G-3/5/7 but in many ways, one might consider any other terrorist tactic. And while staff, Deputy Commanding General of al-Shabab to be a symptom of a larger several attacks in recent months do not Operations for the 1st Armored Division, disease, of larger drivers of instability. necessarily constitute a trend, in this Director of the Mission Command Center The sources of instability are found light, a potential tactical shift away from of Excellence, and Director of the School across East Africa, outside of Somalia shooting and bombing attacks toward of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) at and the immediate threat posed by al- barricade hostage sieges can be seen as Fort Leavenworth. Shabab. a rather positive development. CTC: Can you briefly describe the strategic These issues include lingering border Adam Dolnik is a professor of terrorism studies at importance of CJTF-HoA, its area of tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia the University of Wollongong in Australia as well responsibility, and the strategic role it plays in and Djibouti; weak economies and a lack as a trained hostage negotiator. His books include both U.S. national security interests and U.S. of jobs for an increasing number of youth; Negotiating Hostage Crises with the counterterrorism efforts writ large? environmental degradation and risk of New Terrorists (2007) and Negotiating famine; enormous refugee populations; the Siege of Lal Masjid (forthcoming 2015). MG Grigsby: Located in Djibouti, CJTF- upcoming elections in Burundi and HoA is the only permanent U.S. military Uganda; a general lack of institutional presence on the African continent, capacity; and ungoverned spaces. These providing regional access and crisis are the drivers of instability across response across East Africa, including CJTF-HoA’s area of responsibility. Al- Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Shabab and other groups like them feed Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, South on this instability and exploit it to their Sudan, and Somalia. We also sit just 80 advantage. miles from Yemen. I think there is an opportunity right now CJTF-HoA sits at the seams, both with respect to al-Shabab. The recent geographically and operationally. victories by the African Union Mission Geographically, we are located just in Somalia (AMISOM) during Operation south of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, INDIAN OCEAN have liberated which is the strategic link between the tremendous swaths of land in southern Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. Somalia and eliminated sources of Roughly 5 percent of the world’s oil revenue for al-Shabab’s operations. passes through it each day. Godane has been killed (Editor’s Note:

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Ahmed Godane was the leader of al-Shabab and be able to do what we do if we didn’t live So the partnership between the was killed in September 2014), and al-Shabab’s in the same neighborhood as AMISOM’s Department of Defense and State (U.S. command and control architecture is in troop-contributing countries. We’re Department of State) on security, flux. In short, al-Shabab is vulnerable. here eating, sleeping, and working with governance, and development is very Coordinated, offensive action on the our partners, and building relationships. important. This new way we’re going part of AMISOM could significantly You can’t do this virtually. You can’t to operate, with the Department of degrade its capabilities even further. do this via Facebook and Twitter. You Defense working with and assisting need to be here. You have to be on the our State Department teammates, is That said, the recent horrific and ground, building relationships with the effective. But we need to line up some of cowardly massacre in Mandera (Kenya) embassies, the country teams, the chiefs the authorities to have a more regional highlights that al-Shabab remains a of military defenses, the commanders in approach and have them pushed down capable force. Moreover, Godane, while the field in Somalia and elsewhere. a little bit further so we can react faster important to al-Shabab, was ultimately down here at the tactical level. That only one man. Given sufficient time We need to be building relationships would assist us and make us more and space, al-Shabab will reconstitute based on trust, trust that is built effective. and reorganize. We cannot take them through professional military lightly. education, mil-to-mil (military to CTC: You have been in the saddle as the military) engagements, exercises, and Commander of CJTF-HoA for almost a year. CTC: So how do you expect al-Shabab to react emails and correspondence. It is about What is the most surprising thing you have to Godane’s death? looking these leaders in the eyes, and encountered about our efforts there? picking up the phone when they need MG Grigsby: Think of it in terms of action- help. It is about having the context. MG Grigsby: When I first arrived in reaction-counteraction. Our action was They know me, they know my kids, and Djibouti and took command of CJTF- to remove Godane from the battlefield. I know theirs. HoA, I was surprised to learn that, Al-Shabab will react. The group will go generally speaking, activities across where AMISOM is not. Al-Shabab will The United States is not going to East Africa were not being coordinated go to where there is weakness. have a large footprint here. If our in time, space, and purpose–not only by counterterrorism efforts in places like the Department of Defense but also by So what’s our counteraction? We East Africa are going to have smaller the Department of State. As I previously should continue to assist and enable our footprints, with small teams, then mentioned, our relationships are almost partners in order to help East Africans we need these small teams to have exclusively bilateral, yet our problems deal with East African problems. We maximum effect. These small teams are inherently regional. need to continue building those tactical have to be well chosen and well led. actions at the lowest level that assist They have to be personable, and they While this shortcoming is largely them in neutralizing extremists. have to know what it means to have two structural and requires structural ears and one mouth. They have to work solutions, it can be mitigated through But in the long-term, in building this on these relationships. You can’t just collaboration among interested partner capacity, we need to develop a come in and out. You have to be here. parties. Accordingly, my Deputy professional Somali national army, to Commanding Admiral Alex Krongard develop East African leaders and teach CTC: Looking beyond al-Shabab and outside and I immediately made “develop and them what it means to be a part of a of Somalia, what then are some of the more strengthen the joint, interagency, profession of arms within the region, not pressing regional issues in East Africa that you intergovernmental, and multinational just within their respective countries, feel deserve more of our attention? team” our primary line of effort, and we but within the region. There is a difference. spent the next 10 months “beating the MG Grigsby: In many ways, the current bushes” to fill our bench with committed This is important because all of our situation in Somalia mirrors many of the teammates. It has involved tremendous authorities and all of our capabilities challenges faced throughout East Africa. energy and travel, but the effort has to support and assist are bilateral in In particular, as al-Shabab is cleared been worth it. nature. All those programs go straight from towns, the need for legitimate, to individual countries. By doing this, reliable government institutions and We are now positioned to leverage this we have conditioned our partners– support systems becomes apparent. team in a focused, more coordinated, we have incentivized them–to think Basic services such as access to potable and collaborative way to address bilaterally instead of regionally. If we water and food, medical care, impartial instability in the Horn of Africa. To go bilateral, then we reinforce our East police and judicial systems–all the things be sure, we have not achieved a 100- African partners to stay bilateral. we all too often take for granted in our percent solution, and much of what we lives–are lacking. These voids create do is informal and based on personal CTC: How do you go about encouraging our the conditions under which extremist relationships and energy. Nonetheless, East African partners to see these problems ideologies can take root. Somalia is we are trending in the right direction. through a regional lens? probably the worst in this regard, but these challenges exist throughout East CTC: We recently learned that you have MG Grigsby: The first thing is through Africa. volunteered to extend your time at CJTF-HoA living here on the continent. We wouldn’t for another six months, which more than

9 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 doubles the time your two predecessors each can handle the problem on their own. officers from their respective countries. spent in the region. As you look ahead, what are the biggest challenges the United Stated Over time, the security situation will This structure maximizes information faces in East Africa and what can the United improve, regional interdependence will sharing and builds mutual trust and States (and our allies) do to overcome them? increase, and government institutions relationships. It allows us to move will strengthen. When this happens faster against our adversaries because MG Grigsby: For starters, we must economic growth should follow, and we have mutual trust and relationships. immediately understand that our ability the unstable conditions under which Our collective knowledge goes up, which to influence, let alone control, tactical al-Shabab thrives should gradually allows us to gain, maintain, and exploit actions on the ground will be very fade away, leaving behind only the the initiative against our adversary as limited. It will be limited, and we may most extreme ideologues who can we try to solve problems. not like they way they do it. be systematically and judiciously eliminated. CTC: This approach runs counter to what some Additionally, we will have very little perceive to be a risk-adverse, post-Snowden control over the operational tempo, and By analogy, and you have likely heard information sharing environment. How do we must accept this and demonstrate this before, one can think of the you evaluate your efforts thus far? patience as our teammates move counterterrorism situation in East according to their own timelines. Africa as a swamp, where we deal MG Grigsby: We’ve been fully mission- Of course, after years of directing with the alligators by the boat while capable since the beginning of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, this simultaneously draining the water. November. It’s all about education and reality is hard to accept, but it is reality training. Ignorance gets you in trouble. I nonetheless. CTC: What is one underappreciated don’t want my team to train and educate counterterrorism tenet or practice that is our foreign liaison officers on what they To overcome these challenges, we especially effective in the Horn of Africa that can’t do when it comes to information must remind ourselves that our way of you believe can be exploited elsewhere in sharing. I want them to educate and doing things is not the only way. The America’s counterterrorism fight? train them on what we can do to share alternative would require significant information. Use the heliotropic effect. investments of American blood and MG Grigsby: As we build enduring Go towards the positive. treasure. Our perspective must be one of counterterrorism partnerships and thanks for the sacrifices our teammates capabilities, nothing is more important– We have consistently scared people are making, and we must do everything nothing is more important–than timely and since 2001 by focusing on what they we can with our limited budget and responsible intelligence sharing. Of can’t do when it comes to information authorities to enable and assist their course, this is not something our systems sharing with our coalition partners. If efforts. are designed to facilitate, as information we continue to operate in this manner, is often passed on U.S. classified we will be shooting behind the duck Seeing the problem through their lens networks in a compartmentalized constantly. It makes us slower and becomes crucial, and this requires manner. This is a significant issue within unable to keep pace with our adversaries. building an environment of shared our own agencies, and the situation gets We must follow the rules, but show understanding through constant progressively worse as we incorporate me how I can share information more communication, with an emphasis on foreign partners. effectively so we can build the team, listening more and speaking less. build relationships based on trust, gain Recognizing this, we have spent the past the initiative against our enemies, and CTC: What is one thing that CTC Sentinel year strengthening our relationships take risks where we need to. readers may not know about counterterrorism with our joint, interagency, in the Horn of Africa but should? intergovernmental, and multinational CTC: Imagine you were the CTC Sentinel editor partners. The collaboration and for the next issue. What are one or two topics MG Grigsby: Al-Shabab is not constrained integration of Special Operations Forces that you feel should be featured? by national borders, and, on occasion, with what we call General Purpose it is opportunistically used to explain Forces in East Africa is the best I MG Grigsby: As I mentioned previously, violence unrelated to its members have seen in my 31 years of service, CJTF-HoA is actively working to or ideology. With this in mind, including seven years deployed in Iraq, operate in the unclassified domain. counterterrorism in East Africa Afghanistan, Jordan, and now East While classified networks and traffic requires a regional approach, where we Africa. It’s the best. will always be necessary, this push in leverage our expertise and resources to the unclassified domain allows us to augment the nascent counterterrorism Moreover, we have recently flattened share more freely with our partners and capabilities of our partners. our own organizational structure by speeds up execution. reorganizing a significant portion of In the short term, this strategy our team into country-focused Fusion Based on my understanding, 98 percent prevents or at least reduces the rate Action Cells, or FACs. These FACs of the CTC’s publications are at the and severity of al-Shabab’s attacks. In operate in a large, unclassified, open unclassified level, and your work has the long term, it creates an East African workspace without cubicles or walls. provided tremendous insights that are counterterrorism capability so that they They are staffed with foreign liaison widely respected. With this in mind, an article on the history, value, and potential 10 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 of unclassified counterterrorism The Causes and Impact of the assassination of John F. Kennedy sources, data, and analysis would be as the crime that has had the greatest extremely interesting. Political Assassinations impact on American society in the last 100 years.3 Nonetheless, despite CTC: Can you share with our readers what By Arie Perliger the apparently significant influence books, blogs, or journals you are currently of political assassinations on political reading? Political assassinations have been part and social realities, this particular of social reality since the emergence of manifestation of political action is MG Grigsby: I’m always reading communal social frameworks, as the understudied and, as a result, poorly about change, on how you change leaders of tribes, villages, and other understood. organizations. There’s a great book types of communities constantly needed called Switch (by Chip and Dan Heath) and to defend their privileged status. In the This article is a summary of a broader books by (John) Kotter about managing ancient world assassination featured study that will be published later by the effective change. Life is about change prominently in the rise and fall of some Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) and and we’re in constant change. You have of the greatest empires. aims to improve our understanding of to keep pace with the environment the causes and implications of political when it changes. I’ve also been reading While many people are familiar with assassinations. It makes use of an the Army Operating Concept and the the military victories of Alexander original and comprehensive worldwide work relating to the human dimension. the Great, few today recall that his data set of political assassinations I’m also trying to read a lot about Title ascendance to power was facilitated between 1945 and 2013. The findings 10, Title 22, and Title 50 authorities to by the assassination of his father (an illustrate the trends that characterize see how we can shape those to operate innovative and talented politician in his the phenomenon and challenge some of better in this environment. own right), who was struck down by a the existing conventions about political bodyguard as he was entering a theater assassinations and their impact. to attend his daughter’s marriage celebrations. In a somewhat more Data and Rationale famous incident, Gaius Julius Caesar In order to investigate the causes and was assassinated in 44 BCE by Roman implications of political assassinations, senators who increasingly feared that the CTC constructed a data set that Caesar would revoke their privileges. includes political assassinations worldwide from 1946 to early 2013. After In modern times, political assassinations defining political assassinations as “an continue to play an important role in action that directly or indirectly leads political and social processes and, in to the death of an intentionally targeted some cases, have a dramatic effect. individual who is active in the political For example, many argue that the sphere, in order to promote or prevent assassination of the Israeli Prime specific policies, values, practices or Minister Itzhak Rabin in 1995 was a norms pertaining to the collective,” the major reason for the collapse of the CTC consulted a variety of resources, peace process between Israel and the including relevant academic books 1 Palestinians. It is also difficult to deny and articles, media sources (especially the impact of the assassinations of LexisNexis and The New York Times archive), figures such as Martin Luther King or and online resources, to identify 758 Benazir Bhutto on the success of their attacks by 920 perpetrators that resulted political movements/parties following in the death of 954 individuals. (Some their deaths. attacks led to the death of multiple political leaders; however, the death Thus, it is not surprising that Appleton of “bystanders” is not included in this argues, “The impact of assassinations number.) on America and the World is 2 incalculable,” and that Americans cite This study is guided by the rationale that the logic of political assassinations is different from that of other 1 President Bill Clinton, the main sponsor of the Oslo manifestations of political violence. peace process, speculated that if Rabin had not been Hence, it is important to understand the assassinated, peace would have been achieved in three unique factors that may encourage or years. See Atilla Shumfalbi, “Bill Clinton: If Rabin Would discourage violent groups or individuals Have Not Been Assassinated There Would Be Peace To- from engaging in political assassinations. day,” YNET News, September 14, 2009: www.ynet.co.il/ articles/0,7340,L-3805013,00.html [Hebrew] 2 Sheldon Appleton, “Trends: Assassinations,” Public Consequences of Assassination,” Journal of Conflict Reso- Opinion Quarterly 64:4 (Winter 2000): pp. 495–522. lution 52:3 (June 2008): pp. 385–400. 3 Zaryab Iqbal and Christopher Zorn, “The Political

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Moreover, it seems reasonable to assume 1995 with the start of the transition to and to consolidate their status as the that these factors vary among different democracy in most Eastern European sole legitimate rulers of the polity. types of assassinations because in most countries, a process that in many cases cases the characteristics of the targeted was accompanied by growing ethnic When looking specifically at the individual shape the nature and tensions and political instability. In facilitators of assassinations of heads objectives of the assassination. Indeed, terms of targets, the data indicates that of state, we can identify some unique this study establishes that different most assassinations target heads of trends. To begin with, the polities most processes trigger different types of state (17 percent), opposition leaders susceptible to assassinations against the assassinations and that different types of (who are not part of the executive or head of state are authoritarian polities assassinations generate distinct effects legislative branch) (18 percent), and that lack clear succession rules and on the political and social arenas. members of parliament (21 percent). In in which the leader enjoys significant rarer instances the targets are ministers political power. This is true even General Observations (14 percent), diplomats (10 percent), more so in polities that also include Although the first two decades after local politicians such as governors or oppressed minorities and high levels World War II were characterized mayors (5 percent), and vice head of of political polarization. Therefore, by a limited number of political states (3 percent). non-democratic political environments assassinations, the number of such that feature leaders who are able to attacks has risen dramatically since Causes of Assassinations garner significant power and in which the early 1970s. This is reflective of the The research findings indicate that, in the state lacks efficient mechanisms emergence of a new wave of terrorist general, political assassinations are for leadership change following an groups, radical and universal ideologies more probable in countries that suffer assassination, provide more prospects operating on a global scale, and a from a combination of restrictions for success in advancing political growing willingness by oppressive on political competition and strong changes via political assassination. regimes to use assassinations as a tool in polarization and fragmentation. This stands in contrast to democratic their treatment of political opposition. systems, in which it is clear that the Indeed, while most assassinations of More specifically, states that lack elimination of the head of state will government officials were perpetrated consensual political ethos and have only a limited, long-term impact by sub-state violent groups, most homogeneous populations (in terms of on the socio-political order. assassinations of opposition leaders the national and ethnic landscape) and were initiated by ruling political include politically deprived groups Although heads of state represent what elites or their proxies. This important will face a decline in the legitimacy could be considered the crown jewel of observation supports the notion that of the political leadership and the political assassinations, lower-ranking a growing number of terrorist groups political system and an increase in the political figures also face this threat. see assassinations as a legitimate and likelihood of direct attacks against In this study, we specifically examined effective tool, and that one of the major political leaders. One of the most attacks against legislators and vice obstacles for democratization is the glaring examples of such a dynamic heads of state. Attacks against the vulnerability of political opposition. may be found in Sri Lanka, where the latter are fairly rare and are usually Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a intended to promote highly specific Additionally, our data indicates that group that represents the deprived policy changes (related to areas under assassinations are not limited to specific Tamil minority, organized a bloody the responsibility of the vice head of regions or specific time frames. In campaign of political assassinations state) or to prevent the vice head of fact, the opposite is true. Both regions against the political leadership of the state from inheriting the head of state that are considered politically stable state and the Sinhalese majority from position. Legislators, on the other hand, and economically prosperous, such the early 1980s until approximately are most often victims of civil wars or as Western Europe, as well as regions 2009. And since these issues tend to similar violent domestic clashes in that are considered politically unstable, be present mainly in times of electoral developing countries; in democracies more prone to political violence, and processes or of actual violent strife, one they are almost never targeted. economically weak, such as sub-Saharan should not be surprised that our findings Africa, have experienced similar levels indicate that election periods or periods To illustrate, no less than 34 Iranian of political assassinations. characterized by a general increase in legislators were assassinated in 1981, domestic violence are moments when a when the new revolutionary regime In some regions, however, political country is more susceptible to political was consolidating its control over assassinations have become dominant assassinations. the country. Hence, assassinations of only in the last couple of decades. In legislators are almost always a result South Asia, for example, 76 percent of Another interesting finding is that the of national-level conflicts rather than the assassinations have been perpetrated territorial fragmentation of a country local ones, contrary to what some since the mid-1980s, possibly a is correlated with an increase in the may suspect. Lastly, legislators’ consequence of the growing instability number of assassinations. When a assassinations are rarely perpetrated in the region during and after the Soviet government loses control over some to promote specific policies or to gain invasion of Afghanistan. And more parts of a country to opposition groups, access to the political process. In other than 85 percent of assassinations in both sides are more willing to use words, the assassination of legislators Eastern Europe were perpetrated after assassinations to enhance their influence should be considered more as acts of

12 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 protest against an existing political by a decline in the legitimacy of the must also include the creation of order than political actions that are government. mechanisms to ensure the safety of intended to promote specific political opposition leaders. This in turn will goals. Policy Implications enhance the legitimacy of political This study illustrates that most polities participation, reduce polarization, and One of the unique features of this experienced political assassinations at enhance political stability. study, among others, is its focus on some point in their history. Thus, our assassinations of political figures who ability to improve our understanding of Moreover, although civilian victims are not part of governing platforms. political processes must also include a naturally attract most of the public Unlike other types of assassinations, deeper understanding of the causes and attention during a civil war, this study the state is typically a major actor consequences of political assassinations. highlights the need to evaluate how harm in the assassination in these cases. But how can the findings presented in to political figures may be prevented, as Consequently, it should not surprise us this study help us to understand the this has significant potential to lead to that opposition leaders are more likely potential role of policymakers in the further escalation of a conflict, especially to be targeted in authoritarian systems occurrence or prevention of political when the assassinated figures are heads or in weak democracies, as the political assassinations? of state or opposition leaders. environment in these types of regimes provides a space for the emergence To begin with, it is evident that Lastly, the findings also provide several of an opposition while also providing governments can promote political and practical insights for law enforcement. the ruling elites tools and legitimacy social conditions that may decrease the More than half of the assassins (51.3 for oppressive measures against a prospects of political assassinations. percent) had been involved in criminal “successful” opposition (e.g. Pakistan as For example, while governments in activities prior to the assassination. well as many Latin American countries). polarized societies sometimes have This may indicate that a group usually It is also clear that opposition leaders the tendency to restrict political prefers one of its veteran members to are more vulnerable during violent participation in order to prevent further perform an assassination, probably domestic conflicts, when the number escalation in intrastate communal because of the high stakes involved of opportunities, and maybe also the relations, our findings indicate that in these kinds of operations and the legitimacy, to act against them are on this action will actually increase the relatively high level of operational the rise. probability of political assassinations. knowledge necessary to conduct them.

Impact of Political Assassinations Moreover, in order for electoral In one extreme example, the leader of the The study provides several important processes to become a viable tool for Bangladeshi branch of Harkat-ul-Jihad insights regarding the impact of political promoting a productive and peaceful al-Islami (HuJI), Mufti Abdul Hannan, assassinations. In general, political political environment, it is clear that was revealed to have participated assassinations seem to intensify they are more effective after ensuring actively in the attempted assassination prospects of a state’s fragmentation the most intense political grievances of Sheikh Hasina, the leader of an and undermine its democratic nature. have been addressed. Otherwise, opposition party in Bangladesh and The latter is usually manifested in a electoral competition has the potential the former Bangladesh prime minister, decline in political participation and to instigate further violence, including in August 2004. Also, because of the a disproportionate increase in the the assassinations of political figures. particular risks involved in these kinds strength of the executive branch. The shaping of stable and regulated of operations, groups may prefer to succession mechanisms is also highly expose members who are already known When we looked specifically at different important, especially in countries that are to law enforcement agencies to conduct types of assassinations, we were able struggling to construct stable democratic an assassination rather than exposing to find significant variations among institutions. Interestingly, it seems that members who are still unknown to law them. For example, assassinations of while theories of democratization have enforcement bodies. (However, this heads of state tend to generate a decline for a long time prescribed the creation may be problematic since the veteran in the democratic nature of a polity of institutions as a first step to ensure members are often at higher risk of and an increase in domestic violence wide representation, followed by stable being under surveillance). and instability as well as economic routines and protocols, the opposite prosperity. The latter may sound order may be more effective for the Conclusion counterintuitive but could reflect the promotion of stability and eventually a The dearth of research on political rise of a more open economic system after liberal-democratic environment. assassination represents a crucial the elimination of authoritarian ruler. oversight, especially considering the The assassination of opposition leaders The findings also indicate that more frequency of the phenomenon and its has a limited impact on the nature of a attention needs to be given to the implications. Our study highlights political system, but has the potential to safety of the political leaders during the major theoretical and policy lead to an increase in overall unrest and instances of violent domestic clashes or implications of assassinations and domestic violence. And assassinations transitions to democracy. Opposition identifies some promising directions for of legislators are often followed by leaders are most vulnerable in the early further research, with the hope that this public unrest (illustrated by growing stages of democratization, so the effort unique type of political violence will be anti-government demonstrations) and to facilitate a democratic environment better understood in the future.

13 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 Dr. Arie Perliger is the Class of 1977 Director of Britain’s Terror Threat the trial was underway, police arrested Terrorism Studies at the Combating Terrorism another group of individuals who stand Center and Associate Professor in the Department from the Levant accused of plotting terrorism,5 and the of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy, United Kingdom experienced its first West Point. By Raffaello Pantucci reported suicide bomber in Iraq.6

The views expressed here are those of the author On January 8, 2014, in the immediate This article will examine the current and do not reflect the official policy or position wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, landscape of Islamist terror activity of the Department of the Army, Department of MI5 Director-General Andrew Parker linked to Syria and Iraq in the United Defense, or the U.S. Government. gave his second public speech, during Kingdom, examining both recent which, among other things, he outlined plotting on the domestic front and the the nature of the threat that the United growing role of Britons in Syria and Kingdom faces from Syria. As he put Iraq. It concludes that the lines and it, “Terrorists based in Syria harbour links between these two categories [terrorist] ambitions towards the of radicalized Britons present a fluid United Kingdom, trying to direct attacks and complicated community that is against our country and exhorting continuing to produce a steady stream 1 extremists here to act independently.” of plots and networks of concern to He highlighted how the Islamic State security services. Both are building in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has tried on significant challenges that have to “direct terrorist attacks in the UK been extant in the United Kingdom for and elsewhere from Syria” as well as some time and that were most recently “seeking through propaganda to provoke highlighted in a parliamentary report individuals in the UK to carry out into the May 2013 murder of Lee Rigby 2 violent acts here.” He also highlighted by Islamist extremists.7 That plot, how the threat faced was one that comes and the parliamentary investigation, not only from ISIL extremists, but also showed the complexity of the lone-actor “that a group of core al-Qa’ida terrorists terrorist threat the United Kingdom in Syria is planning mass casualty faces from both isolated individuals 3 attacks against the West.” and those already on the radar screen of intelligence services, something that So far, there have been five publicly is increasingly also seen among the identifiable, alleged plots disrupted in pool of potential threats emerging from the United Kingdom as well as a number radicalization of Britons in the wake of of scares. The alleged plotting dates back the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and to October 14, 2013, when British police the Levant (ISIL).8 in London conducted a series of dramatic arrests to foil what was at the time The threat from Syria and Iraq is characterized as a “suspected Islamist increasingly maturing and following a 4 terror plot to attack London.” Almost trajectory that reflects broader trends exactly a year later, the trial against that have been visible in the United the two defendants charged in the wake Kingdom for some time. Syria and Iraq of the arrests (two other individuals and the associated foreign fighter flow is were released without charge) took something that British security services place, providing Britain with the most expect will occupy their attention for detailed look yet into the nature of the the immediate future. threat that Britain’s security services see emanating from Syria. Ultimately, Mumbai-Style Plot one of the men pleaded guilty while the The trial of Mounir Rarmoul-Bouhadjar, jury could not reach a verdict in the a 26-year-old British national of other case. Amplifying the perception of the threat to the United Kingdom, as 5 Patrick Sawer, Nicola Harley, and Tom Whitehead, “Armed police arrest four men amid fears of Islamist Re- 1 Andrew Parker, “Terrorism, Technology and Account- membrance Day terror plot,” The Telegraph, November 7, ability,” Address by the Director-General of the Security 2014. Service, Andrew Parker, to the Royal United Services In- 6 Martin Naylor, “Suicide Bomber: report claims Islamic stitute (RUSI), Thames House, January 9, 2015. State suicide bomber in Kabir Ahmed, of Normanton, 2 Ibid. Derby,” Derby Telegraph, November 10, 2014. 3 Ibid. 7 “Report on the intelligence relating the murder of Fu- 4 Justin Davenport, “Police foil ‘major Islamist terror silier Lee Rigby,” Intelligence and Security Committee of plot’ after armed raids across London,” The Evening Stan- Parliament, November 25, 2014. dard, October 15, 2013. 8 Ibid.

14 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1

Algerian descent, and Erol Incedal, a Incedal was born to a Kurdish family to Kalashnikov.20 Later in the Skype 26-year-old of Turkish origin, opened in Turkey, where his father, an active conversation the two Skype accounts October 8, 2014, at the Old Bailey. communist, died when he was six weeks were recorded discussing, “If they’re Initially, the trial was to be held in old. His mother, an Alawite, moved to able to get these type and it works, may secret with the two defendants listed Britain when Incedal was a year old, want you to MO 88M 55BAY style,” anonymously as AB and CD, but after leaving her children to join her later something the prosecution interpreted a media-led battle in the courts, it was in the UK. His older sister joined the as being a reference to the Mumbai decided that only some of the trial Kurdistan Workers’ Party14 and died attacks of 2008.21 However, at the would be held in secret and that the two fighting alongside the group, while his time of their arrests the men were not defendants would be named.9 On the eve older brother was later sectioned (taken found in possession of any guns, though of the trial, Rarmoul-Bouhadjar pleaded into a secure mental hospital) under the they were overheard through a police guilty to possessing a “document mental health act. As a young man in the listening device discussing purchasing containing information of a kind likely United Kingdom, Incedal was involved one in their car, using the slang to be useful to a person committing or in gangs and arrested for attempted “sausage” to refer to a gun and “sauce” preparing an act of terrorism, namely a theft in October 2001. A year or so later for bullets.22 document entitled ‘Bomb making.’”10 A he became religious, and soon afterward second charge of improperly obtaining was drawn to Tablighi Jamaat,15 enjoying The plotting around the assassination of an identity document was dropped.11 the brotherhood it provided. He Tony Blair was far more circumstantial. Incedal, on the other hand, fought the traveled with the group to Greece, India, Incedal was pulled over under the guise case, and after a month long trial a Bangladesh, and New York, and met of a traffic stop in September, during jury was unable to reach a verdict. The his co-defendant Rarmoul-Bouhadjar which time authorities searched his judge dismissed the jury and the Crown in Tablighi Jamaat.16 Sometime in 2011 car. In the process they found a Versace Prosecution Services (CPS) declared it he became connected to the now-jailed glasses case, which contained one of would seek a retrial. sons of cleric Abu Hamza, Hamza, Tony Blair’s addresses. This same case Sufyan, and Yaasir, with whom he was was then later found at a second flat that Much of Incedal’s defense was held allegedly planning frauds and armed Incedal failed to report to authorities behind closed doors, while the robberies of post offices.17 It is not clear when he was arrested. They also found prosecution was able to lay its case out what became of these plans. evidence of multiple inhabitants and the publicly. Incedal had been in possession computer on which Incedal was talking of a Secure Digital card taped to his The prosecution’s case centered on the to someone abroad.23 mobile phone, in which the same accusation that the defendants were bomb-making material that Rarmoul- planning a Mumbai-style attack18 or At another moment during the trial, the Bouhadjar owned was saved, labeled possibly a targeted assassination of two defendants were overheard seeming “good stuff.” According to expert- former Prime Minister Tony Blair.19 to refer to their time in Syria. In a witness testimony provided during the In Skype conversations in which he conversation recorded in their vehicle trial, the instructions contained in the used the name Fatima Hamoodi to Rarmoul-Bouhadjar was heard saying, document would have made an extremely communicate with an individual abroad “In Syria the weather was . . .” before sensitive mix of triacetone triperoxide who called himself Zaynab Alawi, Incedal interrupts saying, “Wallahi [I (TATP). As the witness stated on the Incedal wrote, “These straps are not swear] it was like minus 20 degrees stand, the document “generally contains the little ones, they are like the ones we because we were on a mountain.”24 At correct information that could be used have here – y knw k 1122aa shhh etc.” another moment while the men were to produce viable devices. However, “Straps” was believed to refer to guns (a overheard watching extremist videos it lacks detail and further information traditional terminology amongst urban in which men were shooting, Incedal might be required.”12 In a further youth in London) and “k 1122aa shhh” comments “we used that,” while in reference to bomb-making, another file another moment Incedal reports that on the memory card stated, “The first ISIL undertakes a lot of “drive by rule of bomb-making is that your first 14 In Kurdish, Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK). mistake will be your last.”13 15 Tablighi Jamaat is a Muslim movement whose name literally translates as “society for spreading faith” and is 20 Tom Whitehead, “Erol Incedal secret terror trial: jury an off-shoot of the Deobandi movement in South Asia. discharged and retrial ordered,” The Telegraph, Novem- 16 Duncan Gardham, “Terror suspect had ‘reasonable ber 11, 2014. 9 Guardian News and Media Ltd vs AB CD, Royal Courts excuse’ for having bomb-making plans,” The Times, Oc- 21 Sean O’Neill, “Armed police hunted Mercedes of ter- of Justice, Strand, Case No: 2014/02393C1, judgment tober 27, 2014. ror suspect and blew out tires,” The Times, October 15, handed down June 12, 2014. 17 Tom Whitehead, “Secret terror trial hears Erol Inced- 2014. 10 “Defendant in UK’s first secret trial pleads guilty,”The al considered joining forces with Abu Hamza’s sons,” The 22 Victoria Ward, “Secret terror trial hears Erol Incedal Telegraph, October 9, 2014. Telegraph, November 3, 2014. used code word ‘sausage’ to buy a gun,” The Telegraph, 11 Ibid. 18 This refers to the 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, October 16, 2014. 12 Duncan Gardham, “Terror suspect had ‘reasonable India, during which teams of Lashkar-i-Tayyiba attack- 23 Victoria Ward, “Tony and Cherie Blair named in se- excuse’ for having bomb-making plans,’” The Times, Oc- ers assaulted multiple targets in Mumbai using small cret terror trial as potential targets,” The Telegraph, Oc- tober 27, 2014. arms and taking hostages, ultimately killing 164 people tober 14, 2014. 13 Sean O’Neill, “Armed police hunted Mercedes of ter- (including 10 attackers). 24 Sean O’Neill and Duncan Gardham, “Terror suspect ror suspect and blew out tires,” The Times, October 15, 19 Sean O’Neill, “Tony Blair was a ‘terror target,’” The ‘discussed Syria and buying firearm,’” The Times, Octo- 2014. Times, October 14, 2014. ber 17, 2014.

15 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 shootings” that he finds inspiring: to a plot to target security officials at in an Islamic flag in a bag on his back. “They do it a love bruv. And they’ve got a public event.29 The main suspect in In presenting Ziamani to the court, the this special like machine Uzi gun like the case, Yousaf Syed, is a 19-year-old prosecution stated that “he is 19 and of and silence on it – its nuts.”25 who had his passport canceled after previous good character. He said to (a security services believed he tried to female teenager) he is going to commit It is unclear why the jury returned an travel to Pakistan in 2013 for “terrorist a ... terrorist atrocity either on troops inconclusive verdict, though likely the purposes” and then in 2014 attempted or members of the government.”34 He absence of weaponry or a clearly defined to go to Syria.30 On November 20, was further accused of wanting to go to plan of attack left some major gaps in 2014, three men (Yousaf Syed, Yousaf’s Syria to fight alongside ISIL. Both men the prosecution’s case. It is likely that cousin Nadir Ali Sayed, and Haseeb are due to stand trial this year. Incedal’s defense will eventually be Hamayoon) were charged with plotting revealed, though at this point it is being to behead a member of the public on The lone-actor plot, in particular kept behind the veil of secrecy. The re- the streets of Britain.31 The men were targeting authorities, has become the trial is expected to occur sometime this reported to have “laughed hysterically” heart of the threat that British security year. as the charges against them were read services currently see. In early December out in court and were reported in court 2014, a threat believed to have come Targeting of Officials to have been inspired by ISIL.32 They through social media ignited concern This is the not the only plot that British also face trial this year. that police officers in Birmingham were security services believe they have to be targeted for attack. One man was intercepted. In early October 2014, Reflecting a threat picture that from arrested as a result.35 This concern police arrested five individuals believed the security services’ perspective has escalated further around Christmas to be involved in a plot targeting police widened beyond networks of people with armed police standing guard officers with a Russian-made Baikal plotting attacks to include “lone actor” outside prominent locations in London machine gun and ammunition.26 Tarik terrorists, police separately arrested where formal sentries stand to attention Hassane, 21, a medical student at 19-year-old Brustchom Ziamani and 18- in dress uniform (such as Buckingham university in Sudan; Suhaib Majeed, year-old Kazi Jawad Islam. Both men Palace or the famous Horseguards 20, a physics student at King’s College stand accused of planning to launch Parade), while service personnel were London; Momen Motasim, 21; and attacks against government security told not to wear their uniforms to and Nyall Hamlett, 24, all stand accused of forces, though in different ways. Jawad from work.36 planning to use the gun and a moped to Islam was arrested in east London on conduct a drive-by shooting of security August 13, 2014, having reportedly Britain’s Levantine Connection Strengthens officers. A fifth man charged alongside given the order to unknown others to This escalating number of plots took them was accused of supplying the gun.27 kill a British soldier. In court he was place against a backdrop of revelations The men were believed to be inspired reported to have been overheard saying, that British fighters were killed in U.S. by ISIL and had allegedly downloaded “When I give the order I want you to kill airstrikes against Khorasan Group ISIL spokesperson Abu Muhammad a soldier.” He is alleged to have searched camps near Aleppo on September 23, al-Adnani’s fatwa calling on followers for materials to help him produce an 2014;37 that a number of Britons died to launch attacks, taken pictures of improvised explosive device as well as fighting alongside ISIL in Kobane, police officers, discussed ISIL online, possessed a document entitled “How to Syria;38 and that a Briton was involved undertaken online reconnaissance of Make Semtex.”33 in a suicide bombing attack alongside a police station in west London, and the group in Iraq. The suicide bomber pledged allegiance to the group.28 A Congolese-British convert, Ziamani was Derby-born Kabir Ahmed, who Charged with planning a terrorist was also arrested in August in the wake was revealed to have been previously attack, the men face trial this year. of the release of the ISIL video in which convicted of hate crimes, and had gone the American reporter James Foley More recently, on the eve of the 2014 was beheaded. Accused of planning November 11th Remembrance Day an attack similar to the one against celebrations in the United Kingdom, British soldier Lee Rigby in Woolwich 34 Martin Robinson, “British-born Muslim convert police arrested a further four men in in May 2013, Ziamani was arrested ‘plotted atrocity and had a knife and hammer wrapped in raids that were believed to be linked with a knife and a hammer wrapped an Islamic flag,’”Daily Mail, August 21, 2014. 35 Vikram Dodd, “Man arrested in West Midlands after police warning of security threat,” The Guardian, Decem- 25 “Terror accused ‘praised jihadist battles in Syria and 29 Michael Powell and Duncan Gardham, “Teenage ber 9, 2014. Iraq,’” BBC News, October 15, 2014. suspect in ‘Poppy terror plot’ tried to travel to Syria six 36 Abul Taher and Mark Nichol, “Retreating of the 26 Fiona Hamilton and Sean O’Neill, “Terror suspects months ago to ‘take part in extremist activity,’” The Mail Queen’s Guard: End of an era as palace sentries fall back charged with moped plot to shoot police,” The Times, Oc- on Sunday, November 8, 2014. in face of mounting fears of new ‘lone wolf’ terrorist at- tober 18, 2014. 30 Ibid. tack,” The Mail on Sunday, December 27, 2014. 27 Fiona Hamilton and Sean O’Neill, “Terror suspects 31 Martin Evans, “Terror suspects plotted to behead 37 Secunder Kermani, “Friend of British jihadist Ibra- charged with moped plot to shoot police,” The Times, Oc- member of the public, court hears,” The Telegraph, No- him Kamara tells of fight,” BBC Newsnight, September 25, tober 18, 2014. vember 20, 2014. 2014. 28 Victoria Ward and Nicola Harley, “ISIL terror sus- 32 Ibid. 38 Patrick Sawer and Duncan Gardham, “Portsmouth pect Tarik Hassane offered place at top UK university,” 33 “Islam: Teenager Gave ‘Kill Solider’ Order,” Court private school jihadi killed in Syria,” The Telegraph, Oc- The Telegraph, October 8, 2014. News UK, December 4, 2014. tober 25, 2014.

16 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 to Syria in 2012.39 Ahmed is the second and ended up becoming embroiled in Having already experienced the British suicide bomber to have been the fighting and now find themselves Woolwich incident, in which a publicly revealed as dying in Iraq or with nowhere to go. The dilemma of pair of radicalized individuals Syria, though it is believed more than what to do with returnees is something who were longstanding subjects 30 Britons have died in total during the that security forces balance against the of counterterrorism investigations conflict so far.40 number of disrupted plots that they abruptly decided to run over in a car have faced. One report to emerge in the and brutally butcher an off-duty soldier, Furthermore, British-linked fighters wake of the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris British forces are already alert to the are believed to be rising in the ranks of stated that “more than 30 ISIS fighters possible threat from such small-cell or groups fighting in Syria and Iraq, most in the UK have been placed under lone-actor terrorist activity. But given prominently in the case of the infamous surveillance by MI5 because they are the potential numbers of individuals of “Jihadi John,” who is accused of being considered a serious threat” and that “a concern connected with Syria and Iraq the executioner in the ISIL beheading further 120 who retain ‘extremist’ views (of whom about 250-300 are believed to videos and separately as the leader of but have escaped detailed scrutiny have returned home), the threat picture a group called Kateeba al Kawthar. In will be reassessed amid fears that they is one that has multiplied significantly. proscribing the latter group, British have the firearms training to commit a Minister James Brokenshire described copycat attack.”44 Distinguishing the fighters who are its leader as an individual with a British genuine in their desire to return home accent who is featured in recruitment Conclusion to ordinary lives from those who videos under the name Abu Musab but It is not clear whether the plots might pose a terrorist threat is a major whose true name was revealed as Rabah discussed in this article were directed challenge. However, given the current Tahari.41 Tahari’s wife and son were by foreign groups or networks like trend of plots that appear to have loose arrested and charged in Birmingham, ISIL, al-Nusra Front, or the cluster connections to the battlefield but limited accused of sending goods to him in identified as the Khorasan Group on the direction, British security forces seem Syria.42 Ultimately, charges against battlefield in Syria or Iraq. In Incedal’s to be dealing with two distinct groups. both of them were dropped, and Tahari case, it seems that he was discussing One group within the United Kingdom is believed to continue to be out of the his plans with someone abroad, but in seems to be radicalizing and, inspired United Kingdom. All of this presents a the other cases no evidence of direction by narratives that ISIL is broadcasting, worrying picture for security services from overseas has yet been provided, is choosing to plot terrorist attacks who are concerned about the fact that though clearly the head of MI5 has at home. The other is choosing to go British nationals are being radicalized, identified that his service has seen such abroad to fight with some possibly are fighting alongside numerous active plotting. Instead, the publicly returning home to plan attacks. The different groups, and are taking identified and detailed plots appear to line between these two groups is leadership roles in some cases. bear the hallmarks of being inspired unclear, but what does seem clear is by ISIL or potentially loosely linked to that these two parallel trends, and their At the same time, the public debate in the individuals with direct experience on increasing collision together, will cause United Kingdom has been increasingly the battlefield. major counterterrorism challenges for colored by and focused on the question the next several years at least. of what to do with returning fighters. The plots appear to be the product of This debate became livelier with the a fusion of trends, of lone actors and Raffaello Pantucci is Director of International revelations in early September 2014 foreign fighters, with some individuals Security Studies at the Royal United Services that a group of British fighters in Syria seemingly heeding al-Adnani’s call Institute (RUSI). contacted researchers at King’s College to “kill a disbelieving American or and asked them to facilitate their return European–especially the spiteful and to the UK.43 Other groups of fighters filthy French–or an Australian, or a have also allegedly been identified, Canadian, or any other disbeliever from though it is unclear the degree to which the disbelievers waging war, including these clusters of individuals are real the citizens of the countries that entered fighters or are British nationals who into a coalition against the Islamic went out under the auspices of aid work State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be….Do not ask for anyone’s advice 39 Martin Naylor, “Derby would-be suicide bomber: He and do not seek anyone’s verdict. Kill is dad Kabir Ahmed with gay-hatred convictions,” Derby the disbeliever whether he is civilian or Telegraph, July 24, 2014. military, for they have the same ruling. 40 Tom Whitehead, John Bingham, and Sarah Knapton, Both of them are disbelievers.”45 “Up to 30 British jihadists now dead in Syria but toll will rise with ISIS lure,” The Telegraph, October 15, 2014. 41 Hansard Parliamentary record, June 19, 2014. 44 Tim Shipman, Richard Kerbaj, Dipesh Gadher, and 42 “Tahari: Mum and Son Bailed Over Syria Terrorism Tom Harper, “Terror alert over 150 UK jihadists,” The Charges,” Court News UK, March 17, 2014. Sunday Times, January 11, 2015. 43 Tom Coghlan, “Let us come home, say young British 45 Helen Davidson, “ISIS instructs followers to kill Aus- jihadists,” The Times, September 5, 2014. tralians and other ‘disbelievers,’” The Guardian, Septem- ber 23, 2014.

17 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 German Foreign Fighters in numbers in Chechnya.6 of German foreign fighters to other countries, including Yemen11 and Syria and Iraq There is a personal continuity from Somalia.12 However, the war in Syria these earlier wars. Members of the so- provided a whole new theater of conflict, By Daniel H. Heinke and Jan Raudszus called Multicultural House (MKH), a which has attracted radicalized Muslims community in Neu-Ulm in southern from Germany on a scale previously In August 2014, Philip Bergner from Germany, were central to recruitment unseen. the city of Dinslaken in North-Rhine and logistics for Bosnia and Chechnya.7 Westphalia, Germany, died when he One of them, Reda Seyam, earned German Foreign Fighters in Syria drove a vehicle packed with explosives notoriety at that time and remained The number of Germans immigrating into a Kurdish military post in Iraq, loyal to the cause even when he moved to Syria has risen massively over the 1 reportedly killing at least 20 people. to Berlin years later. He is said to have past two years. Islamists have tried to He was one of several German suicide subsequently recruited and trafficked recruit German-speaking Muslims in attackers fighting for the Islamic State fighters to Syria. He reportedly joined the past,13 but now their efforts have in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). ISIL last year, serving as a minister of grown in both quality and quantity. education first in Mosul and later in This is based at least in part on the Numerous German Muslims have the province of Nineveh.8 Seyam was activities of former members of the traveled to Syria since the war broke reportedly killed in an airstrike in Iraq now-banned Salafi-jihadi organization out in 2011, many in order to fight. in December 2014.9 Millatu Ibrahim (Abrahams Religion), Authorities estimate the current which formed the nucleus of German 2 number to be around 600. This is The MKH was not the only source of foreign fighter activists in Syria.14 not the highest per capita number in recruits for the global jihad. The al- Europe, but in absolute terms it is a Quds (later: Taiba) Mosque in Hamburg Millatu Ibrahim was founded in considerable force. According to Hans- was the notorious point of departure for November 2011 by Austrian citizen Georg Maaßen, head of Germany’s the 9/11 attackers. It continued to send Mohamed Mahmoud (alias Abu Usama federal domestic intelligence service, 60 potential fighters abroad in more recent al-Gharib) and Denis Cuspert (alias people from Germany have been killed years. In 2009 a group of people who Abu Talha al-Almani). Mahmoud is a in Syria and Iraq to date. Around 180 had met at the mosque left for Pakistan former member of the German section of 3 have returned. and those who actually arrived joined the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), al-Qa’ida. In 2010 one of them was which distributes al-Qa’ida propaganda. This article assesses what is currently arrested by U.S. military forces and held For his GIMF activities Mahmoud was known about the German foreign in Afghanistan. During interrogations convicted and imprisoned in 2007 and fighter contingent in Syria and Iraq, he confessed to a supposed “Europlot” released in 2011. Before he joined and who they are, and in what propaganda directed against Germany, the United became a figurehead in the German jihadi they are involved. It will also outline Kingdom, and France. Subsequently, movement, Cuspert left behind a music the measures German authorities have these countries heightened their career as a rapper performing under the taken to counter the threat posed by security. Several members of this name Deso Dogg. He made contact with these German fighters. group were sentenced on charges of Reda Seyam and turned from hip-hop membership in a terrorist organization to nasheeds praising Usama bin Ladin A Long Line of German Foreign Fighters when they returned.10 and denouncing “infidels.” The group’s Germans and foreigners living in name was taken from the book Millatu Germany have participated as foreign There was also a low-level stream Ibrahim by Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, fighters in many conflicts in the Muslim underscoring the group’s initial 4 world. They fought in Afghanistan, allegiance to al-Maqdisi’s thinking. partook in significant numbers in the ture Direction (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2007), p.181. The group organized German jihadists 5 civil war in Bosnia, and in smaller 6 Bruno Schirra, “Erlösender Tod am Kaukasus,” Die but also served to connect them to the Zeit, November 7, 2002. Bernhard Junginger, “Wird European scene.15 Ulm zur Hochburg des Islamismus?” Augsburger Allge- 1 “Sicherheitskreise: Schon acht deutsche Selbstmor- meine, May 24, 2012. dattentäter,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, October 15, 7 “Islamisten aus der schwäbischen Provinz,” Neue 2014. Zürcher Zeitung, June 21, 2006. 11 Bill Roggio, “German terrorists pass through Yemen, 2 “Mutmaßlicher IS-Terrorist in Wolfsburg festgenom- 8 Florian Flade, “Deutscher Islamist war ranghohres IS- meet Awlaki, before joining IMU in Pakistan,” The Long men,” Die Welt, January 15, 2015. Mitglied,” Die Welt, December 16, 2014. War Journal blog, February 15, 2011. 3 Manuel Bewader, Florian Flade, and Uwe Müller, “60 9 Marie Del Haes, Georg Heil, and Volkmar Kabisch, 12 Lars Hallundbaek and Michael Taarnby, Al Shabaab: Terroristen aus Deutschland für den IS gestorben,” Die “Von Berlin in den IS-Führungszirkel,” Tagesschau.de, The Internationalization of Militant Islamism in Somalia Welt, November 23, 2014. December 16, 2014. and the Implications for Radicalisation Processes in Europe, 4 Ian Johnson, A Mosque in Munich: Nazis, the CIA, and 10 Wolf Schmidt, Jung, Deutsch, Taliban (Berlin: Links (Danish Ministry of Justice: 2010), p.39. the Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in the West (New York: Christoph Verlag, 2012), pp. 55-82; Guido Steinberg, 13 Jörg Diehl and Christoph Sydow, “Islamisten: Die Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2010), German Edition, p. Al-Qaidas deutsche Kämpfer: Die Globalisierung des islamis- Brüder Chouka,” Der Spiegel, May 23, 2012. 281. tischen Terrorismus (Hamburg: Korber-Stiftung: 2014), 14 Steinberg, p. 361. 5 Michael Taarnby, “Understanding Recruitment of Is- pp. 83-87; and Hanseatisches Oberlandesgericht Ham- 15 Benham Said, Islamischer Staat. IS-Miliz, al-Qaida und lamist Terrorist in Europe” in Ranstrop, Magnus (Ed.): burg [Higher Regional Court Hamburg], Case No. 3-4/13 die deutschen Brigaden (Munich: Verlag C.H. Beck, 2014), Mapping Terrorism Research: State of the Art, Gaps and Fu- OJs 1/12, verdict, February 21, 2014, pp.15-25. pp.118-125.

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Germany’s Federal Ministry of the about the religion in order to join the joined ISIL,29 which is of little surprise Interior banned Millatu Ibrahim in fight, thus undermining some of the since the most prominent German May 2012 for its involvement in riots reasons potentially voiced by people foreign fighters have done so. Because protesting the publication of Mohammed reluctant to support the jihad actively. those who actually leave Germany are caricatures in media outlets. Mahmoud the most radicalized, ISIL is the logical and Cuspert subsequently left Germany. Many people formerly close to Millatu choice, especially since it already has In March 2014 Mahmoud was arrested Ibrahim have likely joined ISIL.21 In many German foreign fighters in its in Turkey, most probably on his way to April 2014 a video appeared online that ranks.30 According to a media report Syria. Cuspert made it to Syria where showed Cuspert reciting a nasheed, in the summer of 2014, the Germans in he apparently made contact with the accompanied by 12 masked and armed Syria have created their own brigade organization Junud al-Sham (Soldiers German-speaking men singing the within ISIL.31 of Syria). In April 2014 he announced chorus.22 He has also appeared in a video his allegiance to ISIL.16 He has become posing with mutilated bodies of enemy Who Are the Jihadists? an important linchpin of propaganda fighters.23 The Washington D.C.-based We know quite a bit about the activities, starring in several online Middle East Media Research Institute demographics of Germans who have videos and rumored to be a leading (MEMRI) assesses Cuspert as an integral traveled to Syria. The current total protagonist of these efforts. part of the ISIL propaganda effort estimated number of people who have through its media service al-Hayat.24 traveled is 600. Of these, security After being injured in an airstrike, The media outlet has published other authorities have collected and analyzed Cuspert appeared in an hour-long German language material, including data on 378 cases, and produced a interview that provided significant a nasheed by another German25 and a study summarizing their analysis.32 insight into his thinking. He perceives video of a German fighter visiting a Although this data is patchy and not death as a martyr as the highest goal hospital in which he urges people to comprehensive in some cases, it is an for Muslims and calls upon them to join join him in Syria.26 In addition, the ISIL interesting approximation. While the him in Syria and take their families with media outlets al-Ghurb27 and al-Hayat28 results are not necessarily surprising, them: “What shall a family do alone in have also produced some of their they provide an empirical confirmation the land of kuffar and you are alone publications in German, including the of anecdotal reports. in the Land of honor? I advise you: If first issue of the ISIL magazine Dabiq. you emigrate take your family with This obviously indicates that German Unsurprisingly, the majority of the you.”17 Cuspert then addresses several speakers are involved in some capacity. travelers are men (89 percent). The questions Muslims in the West may have average age is 26.5 years and about when contemplating supporting ISIL. Most German jihadists in Syria have two-thirds are younger than 26 years. He describes life in Syria as comfortable Nearly two-thirds of the travelers were and points out that there is no necessity born and raised in Germany. About to fight but one may support ISIL in half of them are married, and 104 have other ways: “Every grown man with 21 Said, p.144. children.33 Women who travel to Syria a healthy mind is able to leave. Some 22 German group of fighters from ISIS together with are on average three years younger than might stay behind for religious teaching Abu Talha al-Almani are singing a song for An- their male counterparts and are also and missionary work (dawa).”18 gela Merkel [Eng. subs]: http://www.liveleak.com/ more likely to be converts.34 There is view?i=68c_1397923701 evidence that some families have taken Cuspert postulates that jihad is an 23 18+ Brutal Beheading of a Member of the al-Shaitat their children with them to Syria.35 obligation and calls it the peak of Islam: Tribe with Translation: http://www.liveleak.com/ “There will be jihad until the day of view?i=108_1415124887 Information about educational level is judgment. Because as long as there is 24 The Middle East Media Research Institute, “New fitna19 on this world and people who ISIS Media Company Addresses English, German and are fighting Islam and not fearing Allah French-Speaking Westerners,” MEMRI Jihad & Terror- 29 Presentation in Bonn, Claudia Dantschke, Salafism and praying only to him, there will be ism Threat Monitor, June 23, 2014. expert, July 2014. jihad.”20 He concludes that because 25 “The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Shaam Al-Hayat 30 Said, p.145. jihad is an obligation, it is unnecessary Media Centre (HMC) presents Mujatweets Episode #1,” 31 “Immer mehr Deutsche kämpfen in Syrien und Irak,” to know the Arabic language or a lot May 31, 2013: https://archive.org/details/HMC_MJT1 Die Welt, June 15, 2014. 26 German Visiting The Injured: https://ia902503. 32 “Analyse der den deutschen Sicherheitsbehörden us.archive.org/24/items/GermanBrotherVisitingTheIn- vorliegenden Informationen über die Radikalisierung- 16 Said, pp.131-133. jured/German_brother_visiting_the_injured.mp4 shintergründe und -verläufe der Personen, die aus 17 A Special Interview with the brother Mujiahid 27 Shaykh Abu Hammam Bakr bin Abudalziz Al-Thari, islamistischen Motiven aus Deutschland in Richtung Abu Talha Al-Almani: https://www.youtube.com/ “Das Ausstrecken der Hände zur Bayah an al-Baghda- Syrien ausgereist sind” (Analysis by German security watch?v=rm5CQOUrhYo dii:” https://archive.org/stream/Das.Austrecken.der. authorities of current information on background and 18 Ibid. Haende.zur.Bayah.an.Al-Baghdadi/Das.Austrecken. radicalization processes of those persons who have left 19 Fitna can be translated as a hard test by times that der.Haende.zur.Bayah.an.Al-Baghdadi_djvu.txt. Germany to Syria out of Islamist motivation), December might threaten one’s faith. It is also used as a word for 28 Islamic State News Magazine–Issue 1 (German): 12, 2014, p.5. internal Islamic wars. https://archive.org/details/ISNEdition1DE; HMC Al- 33 Ibid., pp.8-11. 20 A Special Interview with the brother Mujiahid Hayat Media Center, Islamic State Report Issue #1 (Ger- 34 Ibid., p.25. Abu Talha Al-Almani: https://www.youtube.com/ man): https://archive.org/details/ISRIssue1FinalPD- 35 Jan Raudszus, “Grüne fordern Verbot von Salafisten- watch?v=rm5CQOUrhYo FDE Verein,” Weser-Kurier, October 24, 2014.

19 January 2015 . Vol 8. Issue 1 available in less than half of the cases, by the results. In fact, people who were participation in combat for ISIL.44 but of the data available, the study notes influenced by the internet were more that the educational level is below that likely to propagate Salafism publically The second approach concerns measures of the average population. Out of 378 or were noticed by security services.39 under administrative law. These are mostly persons, 249 had committed criminal directed against attempts to leave the acts before they left the country. Before The study also contains information country in order to join ISIL or other they turned to Islamism the majority on the duration of the radicalization Islamist organizations, and include of the offenses were violent acts and process for 128 persons. Less than provisions such as the withdrawal offenses against property. During their half (42 percent) radicalized within 12 of passports and other identification radicalization, these offenders would months. In only 12 cases do we see three documents and the prohibition of leaving commit more so-called politically months or fewer between radicalization the country. Administrative measures motivated offenses36 (i.e. criminal acts and traveling to Syria. However, while also include the obligation to report directed against political or ideological the majority of cases exceeded 12 to a specific police station at regular opponents or constituting unlawful months, the average has fallen from intervals. Though not watertight, these support of a political or ideological 3.3 years to 1.2 years since the war in measures have played an important organization). Syria started. The percentage of those role in reducing the number of militant who have been radicalized within a year Islamists traveling to the Middle East. Ultimately, while the demographic prior to their leaving has risen from 25 data in this study are useful and to 50 percent.40 The internet had no A particularly relevant instrument in interesting, the diversity across the apparent influence on the speed of the this context is the possibility of banning categories confirms the findings radicalization process.41 organizations that the authorities already established in other studies consider a threat to public security. that analyze Islamist homegrown In 196 cases the motivation to travel In early December 2014, the Bremen terrorists in the Western world: There to Syria was apparently jihadist, with state authorities outlawed a Salafist is no reliable socio-demographic profile 42 openly stating that they wanted to group and closed its attached mosque. of jihadists.37 fight.42 About half of the 120 people This group was the first identified as who have returned to Germany are still playing a significant role in facilitating While converts gain a lot of media active in the extremist scene.43 recruitment for ISIL in Germany.45 attention and apparently are used by the Through administrative measures jihadist groups in Syria for propaganda Government Measures Against Prospective like these, authorities believe it is targeting new, potential German- and Returned Fighters possible to counter the establishment speaking recruits, they only comprise In the face of the growing number of of radicalization nodes, thus hampering 18 percent of jihadist travelers to Syria. German residents who have traveled attempts to influence more people. Importantly, travelers were almost to Syria, the government has taken Additionally, the police are prepared exclusively followers of the Salafist measures to address the problem. to assess the possible threat posed brand of Islam. Authorities pursue a three-pronged by returned fighters–namely, by approach. monitoring them, if necessary, in cases The study also provides additional with insufficient evidence to achieve insight into the radicalization process. The first sphere of activity comprises a criminal conviction. Though some Of the individuals assessed, 72 percent criminal investigations, which are conducted returned fighters may be disillusioned had some connection to the Salafist when individuals prepare for travel to by their experience in the conflict scene from the beginning of the Syria or Iraq; attempt to recruit fighters area, others–desensitized by and radicalization process. The internet or conduct other forms of support for indoctrinated to accept and support as a sole impetus of radicalization was ISIL or another Islamist organization; ISIL’s brutal tactics, and still clinging present in only 13 cases. This data or actually become involved in such to this ideology–pose a serious menace indicate that social contacts are a major an organization’s activities. All three to the public. factor when it comes to the path of situations are actionable under German radicalization. The percentage of people criminal law. Several investigations Equally important, though, is the for whom offline social contacts played have been launched by the Federal attempt to counter radicalization efforts before no role fell to 3 percent.38 The study Prosecutor General and the states’ public they produce a significant impact. The concludes that the “self-radicalization prosecution departments, depending on German ministers of the interior both by internet” hypothesis is undermined crime and jurisdiction. One 20-year-old on the national and state levels recently fighter who returned to Germany was agreed to a coordinated set of prevention recently sentenced to three years and and intervention measures directed 36 “Analyse,” pp.11-13. nine months of imprisonment under 37 Daniel H. Heinke and Ryan Hunter, “Radicalization juvenile law after having confessed to of Islamist Terrorists in the Western World,“ FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin 80.9 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. De- 44 “IS-Kämpfer zu mehrjähriger Haft verurteilt,” Süd- partment of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation: 39 Ibid., p. 22 deutsche Zeitung, December 5, 2014. 2011), p. 25-31; Daniel H. Heinke and Ryan Hunter, 40 Ibid., pp.17-18, 27. 45 Jan Raudszus, “Innensenator verbietet salafistisch- “Radikalisierung islamistischer Terroristen im Westen,” 41 Ibid., p. 22. en Verein,” Weser-Kurier, December 6, 2014, p. 1. Die Polizei, 2011, pp. 293-297. 42 Ibid., pp.18-19. Disclaimer: Author Heinke was in charge of the respective 38 “Analyse,” pp.13-16. 43 Ibid., p.20. investigation.

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against Islamist violent extremism.46 Jan Raudszus is a journalist investigating With local concepts adjusted to their extremism and political violence in Germany. In CTC Sentinel Staff respective community requirements 2012 he graduated from King’s College London and coordinated by information centers with an MA in terrorism studies. Editorial Board at the state level, the approach aims COL Cindy R. Jebb, Ph.D. to provide information to prevent Department Head radicalization, and to utilize proactive Department of Social Sciences (West Point) social work to take care of people already influenced by jihadist ideology. COL Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. The goal of this type of approach is to Deputy Department Head encourage and assist non-governmental Department of Social Sciences (West Point) organizations in providing low- threshold access to information on Islam LTC Bryan Price, Ph.D. in a Western society, thus reducing the Director, CTC influence of jihadist sites with regard to this topic. Several regional non- governmental organizations already provide information and support to families in the attempt to intervene in radicalization processes or even facilitate demobilization of German fighters in Syria, a concept that recently has started spreading internationally.47 Additional non-governmental, but government-funded organizations in Contact Germany have been founded lately, and Combating Terrorism Center more will likely follow. U.S. Military Academy 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall These three approaches are West Point, NY 10996 complemented by the ongoing Phone: (845) 938-8495 monitoring of jihadists by the domestic Email: [email protected] intelligence services and the police Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ intelligence divisions on the national and state levels. * For Press Inquiries: (845) 938-8495 Conclusion Germany is a considerable source of Islamist foreign fighters who participate in the war in Syria and Iraq. Most have sworn allegiance to ISIL. They present a clear and present threat to Western support societies and, despite the efforts by The Combating Terrorism Center would authorities in Germany, will likely like to express its gratitude to its financial continue to do so for years to come. supporters, for without their support and shared vision of the Center products like the Dr. Daniel H. Heinke serves as director, policy CTC Sentinel could not be produced. If you planning staff, and counter-terrorism coordinator are interested in learning more about how at the state Ministry of the Interior, Bremen, to support the Combating Terrorism Center, Germany. He is an Associate Fellow at the please visit http://www.ctc.usma.edu or call International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation Kristin Sorenson at West Point’s Association and Political Violence (ICSR), King’s College of Graduates at 845-446-1561. London.

46 “Innenminister setzen ein klares Signal: Pegida muss demaskiert werden—Wir wollen ein friedliches Zusam- menleben—IMK beschließt außerdem bundesweites Präventionskonzept gegen gewaltbereite Salafisten,” The views expressed in this report are those of Joint Press Release, December 15, 2014. the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, 47 Klaus Jansen, “German program triggers internation- the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Government. al deradicalization network,” Deutsche Welle, September 3, 2014.

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