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P/C Insurance in the Post-Pandemic World an Industry Overview & Outlook

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P/C Insurance in the Post-Pandemic World an Industry Overview & Outlook P/C Insurance in the Post-Pandemic World An Industry Overview & Outlook National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies March 24, 2021 Robert P. Hartwig, PhD, CPCU Clinical Associate Professor of Finance, Risk Management & Insurance Darla Moore School of Business ¨ University of South Carolina [email protected] ¨ 803.777.6782 Pandemics & P/C Insurance: Outline n P/C Financial Overview & Outlook Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic n COVID-19: Actual vs. Expected Impacts on Key Lines n Investment Market Issues: Volatility Rules, Low Interest Rates are Back n The Economy and COVID-19: Overview & Outlook n CAT Loss Update n Commercial Lines Rate Trends n COVID-19 Litigation Trends n Summary and Q&A P/C Insurance Industry: Financial Overview Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic The P/C Insurance Industry Entered the COVID-19 Pandemic from a Position of Financial Strength Economic, Financial Market, Regulatory and Tort Risks Are Major Challenges Going Forward 3 3 2006:Q4 Policyholder Surplus (Capacity), Management Center, University of South Carolina. of South University Center, Management A.M .Best;Uncertainty and Risk ISO,Sources: insurance business. business. insurance non a in insurer’s investment one for parent company holding a from capital paid of $22.5B includes data 2010:Q1 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 ($ Billions) ($ 06:Q4 $487.1 07:Q1 $496.6 – 07:Q2 $512.8 2020:Q3 07:Q3 $521.8 07:Q4 $517.9 08:Q1 $515.6 08:Q2 $505.0 08:Q3 $478.5 Financial 08:Q4 $455.6 ( - Crisis - 09:Q1 $437.1 16.2%) - in in 09:Q2 $463.0 09:Q3 $490.8 09:Q4 $511.5 10:Q1 $540.7 10:Q2 $530.5 10:Q3 $544.8 Drop due to near 10:Q4 $559.2 source of capital to underwrite new risks. new underwrite to capital of source 11:Q1 $566.5 losses CAT 2011 events, periods of economic stress and and stress economic of periods events, financial cushion against large insured insured large against cushion financial Policyholder Surplus is the industry’s theindustry’s is Surplus Policyholder 11:Q2 $559.1 financial market volatility. It is also a also is It market volatility. financial 11:Q3 $538.6 ( - 11:Q4 $550.3 4.9%) $570.7 12:Q1 12:Q2 $567.8 12:Q3 $583.5 - record record 12:Q4 $586.9 13:Q1 $607.7 13:Q2 $614.0 13:Q3 $624.4 The P/C insurance industry entered the COVID 19 pandemic from a position strength and was 13:Q4 $653.4 able to withstand the 9.0% surplus decline in Q1 2020 (far less than during the Financial Financial the during than less (far 2020 Q1 14:Q1 $662.0 Crisis). 2020 ended with record surplus. 14:Q2 $671.6 14:Q3 $673.9 14:Q4 $675.2 15:Q2 $674.2 15:Q4 $673.7 16:Q1 $676.3 16:Q4 $700.9 17:Q2 $717.0 17:Q4 $750.7 18:Q3 $781.5 18:Q4 $742.1 19:Q1 $779.5 19:Q2 $802.2 4 19:Q3 $812.2 19:Q4 $847.8 20:Q1 $771.9 20:Q2 $819.7 20:Q3 $865.1 - P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes, 1991–2020E* n 2005 ROE= 9.6% $ Millions n 2006 ROE = 12.7% n 2007 ROE = 10.9% n 2008 ROE = 0.1% $80,000 n 2009 ROE = 5.0% n 2010 ROE = 6.6% 1 $70,000 n 2011 ROAS = 3.5% 1 n 2012 ROAS = 5.9% $65,777 1 $63,784 n 2013 ROAS = 10.2% $62,496 1 $59,994 $60,000 n 2014 ROAS = 8.4% $56,826 n 2015 ROAS = 8.4% $55,870 n 2016 ROAS = 6.2% $50,000 n 2017 ROAS =5.0% $47,333 n 2018 ROAS = 8.0% $44,155 n 2019: ROAS = 7.7% $42,924 $40,000 n 2020: ROAS = 4.1%** $38,501 $36,819 $36,813 $35,204 $33,522 $30,773 $30,029 $30,000 $28,672 $24,404 $21,865 $20,598 $20,559 $19,456 $20,000 $19,316 $14,178 COVID’s impact on net income is $10,870 $10,000 more modest than assumed $5,840 early in the pandemic. 21% drop $3,046 $3,043 based on annualized Q3 data $0 -$10,000 -$6,970 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20E *2020 estimate based on annualized actual Q3:20 figure of $35.5B. ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers for years (2009-2014). **Through Q3 2020. A,M, Best estimate for 2020 is $48.8B (as of 2/25/21). Sources: A.M. Best, ISO. ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, 1987–2020:Q3* (Percent) 20% P/C Profitability Is Influenced Both by Katrina, Harvey, Cyclicality and Volatility Rita, Wilma Irma, Low Maria, 15% CATs CA Wildfires 10% 2019 Sept. 11 7.7% 5% Hugo Lowest CAT Losses in 4 Hurricanes Sandy 15 Years Andrew, 2020:Q3 0% Iniki Financial Crisis* Record Northridge ROE fell by 8.3 pts Tornado 4.1% from 12.7% to 4.4% Losses Covid-19 -5% 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20* *Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2014. 2020:H1 estimate is based on actual Q1 2020 figure of 8.8%. Sources: ISO, Fortune; USC RUM Center. 6 Percentage Point Change in P/C ROEs During Past Economic Downturns: 1971 - Present Change in P/C ROE During Past Economic Downturns (pre-Covid) Percentage Point Avg.: -4.5% (-4.0% ex. 2000-01) Change Median: -5.0% (-3.0% ex. 2000-01) 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% -2.0% -2.4% -3.0% -4.0% -3.6% COVID-19’s economic and financial market impact -6.0% helped drive down industry -7.1% -7.0% ROEs but well within the -8.0% range of expectation based -8.3% on history -10.0% 2007-08 2000-01* 1973-75 2019-20** 1981-82 1979-80 1990-91 *2000-2001 decline impacted by 9/11 losses. **As of Q3 2020 vs. annualized Q3 2019 figure Source: USC Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management. 7 Source: NAIC, ISO, Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011 2020. Q3 through actual is figure P/C estimate. an is figure 500 Fortune *2020 P/C Insurance ROE vs. Fortune 1975 500, Fortune ROE 10% 15% 20% 25% -5% . 0% 5% - 75 20 figures data.are Note:estimates Data for based on ROAS 2008 76 1975: 2.4% 77 78 1977:19.0% 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1984: 1.8% 86 87 88 1987:17.3% 89 90 91 92 93 1997:11.6% 94 1992: 4.5% 95 96 97 98 - 2014 exclude mortgage a 99 00 01 02 03 04 2006:12.7% 2001: 05 – 06 07 2020E* nd financial guaranty insurers. 08 - 09 1.2% 10 11 12 13 9.8% 14 2013 15 16 5.0% 17 2017 P/C Insurance: 9.0% Average: 1975 18 13.3% 500: Fortune 19 20 2020E 4.1% 13.2% 2020 - 2019 Profitability & Politics How Is Profitability Affected by the President’s Political Party? 9 P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Administration, 1950-2020* Carter 16.43% Reagan II 15.10% Nixon 8.93% Clinton I 8.65% G.H.W. Bush 8.35% G.W. Bush II 8.33% OVERALL RECORD: Obama II 8.20% 1950-2020* Clinton II 7.98% Reagan I 7.68% Democrats 8.1% Nixon/Ford 6.98% Republicans 7.8% Truman 6.97% Trump 6.25% Eisenhower I 5.43% Party of President has Eisenhower II 5.03% marginal bearing on G.W. Bush I 4.83% profitability of P/C Obama I 4.68% Johnson 4.43% insurance industry Kennedy/Johnson 3.55% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% *Trump figure is 2017-2020:Q3 average. ROEs for the years 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments. Source: Risk and Uncertainty Management Center, University of South Carolina. Source: Risk and Uncertainty Management Center, University of South Carolina. of South University Center, Management Uncertainty Risk and Source: years 2008 the ROEs for Q3. isthrough figure *2020 10% 15% 20% 25% -5% Presidential Affiliation,Party 1950 P/C insurance Industry ROE by 5% 0% 50 Truman 52 54 56 Eisenhower 58 - 2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments. guaranty financial and mortgage exclude 2014 60 BLUE 62 Kennedy/ 64 Johnson = 66 President Democratic 68 70 72 Nixon/Ford 74 76 78 Carter 80 82 I Reagan/Bush 84 86 RED 88 90 - = Republican President Republican 92 2020* 94 Clinton 96 98 00 02 II Bush 04 06 08 10 Obama 12 14 16 18 Trump 20 Growth and Underwriting Performance COVID-19 Has Had a Mixed Impact on the P/C Insurance Industry 12 12 Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, 1971—2020E 2020F: 3.8%* 2020E: 1.8%** (Percent) 2020:Q3: 3.1% 1984-87 1975-78 2000-03 2019: 3.6% 2018: 10.8% 25% Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline 2017: 4.6% Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, 2016: 2.7% 20% and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3- Year Decline Since 1930-33.
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