The Upcoming Elections Due to Take Place Next Year Have Exacerbated the Political Discourse Among the Major Political Parties in the Country

The upcoming elections due to take place next year have exacerbated the political discourse among the major political parties in the country. The topi- cal political rhetoric has increasingly shifted from actual politics to personal attacks, accusations, and allegations, aimed at tainting the reputation of the political opponent and rival. This situation will be observed over the coming year as well, right through the local and presidential election campaigns.

Despite the hesitant policies the GERB Party has been pursuing in a number of political areas, the rating of the party remains high and at the time being there is no other plausible political alternative, which could possibly bring about the electoral defeat of the governing party. The rows surround- ing the GERB Party over the past few months, however, have resulted in the decline of its confidence rating. This is a notable shift, as a large majority of the Bulgarians gave their 2009 electoral support to GERB precisely on account of its anti-corruption program and the promise for effective combat against organized crime.

The Blue Coalition is turning into one of the staunchest critics of the GERB Party. There is a possibility for it to become GERB’s opposition. Such a tactical move seems justified from an internal party point of view. Opinion polls indicate that a large part of the right-wing voters who gave their support to the GERB Party at the last general election have been disappointed with the policies, which the incumbent governing majority has been pursuing since it came into office.

The emergence of the new presidential project has begun to alter the situation in the left-wing political space. The project became popular with its abbreviation signifying the first three letters of the Bulgarian alphabet (ABV), which actually encode words meaning an “Alternative for Bulgarian Revival”. For the time being, it is far from clear what the political objectives of the ABV Movement are going to be and whether it will eventually become a yet another political party. Participants in the Movement declared themselves to be an alternative to the incumbent GERB governance. 4/2010 1

Table of Contents

1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Development of the Party System in Bulgaria...... 6 2.1. Trends in the Right-Wing Political Space...... 6 2.1.1. The GERB Party...... 6 2.1.2. The Attack Party...... 7 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition (made up by Democrats for Strong Bulgaria, DSB, and the Union of Democratic Forces, UDF)...... 9 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, and Justice Party (OLJ)...... 10 2.2. Trends in the Parliamentary Opposition...... 11 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 11 2.2.2. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 12 3. Public Opinion...... 12 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts...... 14 2 4/2010

1. The Political Situation Although President Parvanov had declared months ago that Bulgarian politics needed new What is being observed with the increasingly faces, the faces of the newly established Move- closer approach of the 2011 local and presiden- ment are those of well-known politicians and tial elections in Bulgaria is the perceptible ex- public figures. Members of the Initiative Com- acerbation of relationships among the political mittee also are: Borislav Kittov, former MP from parties in the country. the Bulgarian Agrarian People’s Union – People’s Both the deliberations and the voting proce- Union, Prof. Vassil Prodanov from the Bulgar- dure provoked by the first non-confidence vote ian Academy of Sciences, Emil Kalo, Chairman against the incumbent government, which the of the Shalom Association of Jews in Bulgaria, BSP and the MRF jointly tabled in Parliament the Reserve General Mikho Mikhov, the former on account of the crisis in the healthcare sec- Chief Secretary of the Ministry of Interior, Kr- tor, were held in the absence of Prime Minister assimir Petrov, sport stars Yordan Yovchev and Boiko Borissov. For the first time ever over the Valentin Yordanov, and the incumbent Member past twenty years of democratic governance of the European Parliament and former Minister in the country, a Bulgarian Prime Minister was of Foreign Affairs, Ivailo Kalfin. deliberately absent from a non-confidence vote The address of President Parvanov to the against the Cabinet. This elicited the strong crit- ABV Forum contained sharp criticism of the icism of the opposition, which accused Prime GERB governance. In his opinion, the revival of Minister Borissov of disregarding the National the Bulgarian nation goes through reconcilia- Assembly. As expected, only the opposition per- tion and the refusal to wage battles with the sonified by the BSP and the MRF voted in favor country’s past. In Parvanov’s opinion, the ABV of the non-confidence vote, which they them- Movement will strive to achieve a historical com- selves had tabled. promise between the Left Wing and the Right The political project announced by President Wing, nurturing a new type of political culture, Parvanov provoked strong political reverbera- whereby decisions are made by a broader circle tions, despite the fact that it had been subject to of parties and civic structures. public discussions long before its official launch. President Parvanov declared that the ABV The first initiative of the Movement entitled “An Movement intended neither to grow into a party Alternative for Bulgarian Revival” (the Bulgar- nor to run at next year’s local elections, meaning ian abbreviation of which is ABV) was a discus- that the Movement would not be drafting slates sion held in the middle of November under the of municipal councilors of its own and would heading of “Bulgaria – on the Next Day”. To not nominate candidates for mayors of its own. prevent possible attacks of infringing the Con- In his opinion, however, the ABV Movement stitution, Parvanov was not the organizer of the could lend support to certain candidates – ei- forum but its guest instead, invited to attend it ther independent candidates for mayors or the by an Initiative Committee headed by the Mayor candidates of other parties. One of the found- of the town of Blagoevgrad, Kostadin Paskalev. ers of the ABV Movement, Kostadin Paskalev, According to the Bulgarian Constitution, the also said that the ABV Movement was not going President shall not be part of the leadership of to become a party, but should that nonetheless any political entity. Regardless of the fact that happen, he himself would instantly leave the the ABV was not established as a proper po- Movement altogether. litical party, GERB and the Attack Party accused At the beginning of December, the Bulgarian the President of actually having infringed the Parliament finally passed the 2011 Government country’s Constitution. Budget of the country. The GERB and Attack 4/2010 3 parties voted in favor of the budget tabled by voiced their stance against this decision and the Cabinet, the BSP and the MRF voted against, declared that they would address the Constitu- while the Blue Coalition abstained. The decision tional Court to this effect. of the traditional Right Wing to refrain from vot- The Blue Coalition warned that there was ing for the Budget is a symbolic move and is a a genuine danger for the country to incur an yet another confirmation of the tendency for its excessive budget deficit next year, because the increasingly more decisive differentiation from expectations for a 3.6 percent growth rate were the policies pursued by the GERB Party. unrealistic. Furthermore, the Right Wing ac- The 2011 Government Budget envisages an cused the governing majority of practising “left- economic growth rate to the tune of 3.6 per- ist populism” and accomplishing no reforms cent. The budget deficit amounts to BGN 2.16 whatsoever, thus preventing the country from billion, which is by 3 percent lower than the entering the phase of economic recovery. overall amount of the country’s GDP and thus Similar criticism was launched by the does not exceed the EU permitted mark. The MRF as well. They said that by passing such revenue side of the budget amounts to BGN 25 a government budget, the ruling majority had 844 billion, which exceeds the 2010 budget rev- missed the opportunity to implement genuine enue target by BGN 1.3 billion. The excise tax reformist policies. on fuels and tobacco products goes up, where- The opposition expressed its dissatisfaction by the expectations are for this increase to bring with the fact that Prime Minister Boiko Borissov BGN 65 million in budget revenues. The flat 10 was absent from the Plenary Hall of the National percent tax rate on corporate and personal in- Assembly throughout the entire parliamentary comes has been preserved. The forecast 2011 procedure of passing the 2011 government inflation rate is 3.7 percent. budget. According to a number of political ana- The expenditure side of the budget amounts lysts, Borissov’s neglect of Parliament is increas- to BGN 27 807 billion. The maximum amount of ingly turning into a characteristic style of his incomes for the purpose of deducting social se- conduct, which exacerbates the relations with curity contributions remains at the level of BGN the parliamentary opposition and adversely im- 2000. The 2011 government budget envisages pacts the functioning of the institutions. no increase of minimum wages and pensions At the beginning of October, the Prime Min- whatsoever. The largest expenditures laid down ister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, paid an in the government budget are allocated for ap- official visit to Bulgaria. During his bilateral talks propriation by two ministries, namely the Minis- with Prime Minister Borissov, Erdoğan declared try of Interior and the Ministry of Defense. that Turkey was looking forward to Bulgaria’s The legislators envisage that the 2011 bud- support for his country’s pending accession to get deficit can be made up for by an issue of the European Union. The Prime Minister of Tur- government debt to the tune of BGN 2.35 bil- key also noted that Brussels was putting far too lion and by raising revenues from privatization many obstacles on Ankara’s path to EU mem- deals to the tune of BGN 450 million. bership, which were missing from the pre-ac- One of the controversial points in the pro- cession practices of the European Commission cess of passing the 2011 government budget with respect to other countries. In reply Boiko was the decision of the governing majority to Borissov said that Bulgaria supported Turkey’s transfer the reserve of the National Health In- European prospects. However he rejected the surance Fund to the budget of the Ministry of possibility for the Bulgarian stance concerning Health. The BSP qualified this decision as na- Turkey’s EU accession to be decided at a refer- tionalization of funds. The Blue Coalition also endum and declared that this issue would be 4 4/2010

considered only when Turkey had closed down of the governing majority is that such borough all the required negotiation chapters. mayors are not vested with sufficient powers, In November, the Russian Prime Minister, which could justify their direct election by the Vladimir Putin, arrived in Bulgaria to sign the local voters. agreement for the construction of the “South It is the Blue Coalition that reacted most Stream’ gas pipeline. Another Russian-Bul- strongly to this amendment. The new situation garian project, namely the construction of the has a direct bearing on the interests of the UDF “Belene” Nuclear Power Plant, is about to be and DSB, as these two parties have borough finalized s well. The two countries signed a mayors of their own in the biggest cities of the memorandum for the establishment of the country. In the capital city the Blue Coalition has project company, which will be responsible for traditionally strong positions in some of the bor- the construction of the NPP. The memorandum ough municipalities and this is the reason why lays down the percentage stakes of the parties the direct elections for borough mayors are im- involved in the project company. It envisages is portant for its constituent parties from a strate- that the Bulgarian state-owned National Elec- gic point of view. For its part, the BSP also voiced tricity Company (NEC) will have a 51 percentage its stance against this particular amendment. stake, and Russia – 47 percent. The project also A similar provision of the new Electoral Code includes European investors, such as the French envisages that the mayors of small settlements “Altran” Technological Company and the Finn- – mainly villages populated by less than 500 in- ish “Fortum” Company, the shares of which will habitants – shall also be appointed instead of be 1 percent each. elected. The opposition was equally critical of The major differences between Bulgaria this idea as well. and Russia over the past two years concerned Another controversial amendment to the the cost of the “Belene” NPP, which – accord- Electoral Code is the provision requiring per- ing to the latest calculations done by “Ros- manent residence for local election voters satom” – cannot go below EUR 6.4 billion. The within the limits of a year on the territory of Bulgarian government insists that the overall a given municipality. Subsequently, the length cost should not exceed EUR 5 billion. The cost of permanent residence was diminished to 10 issue has remained unsolved thus far, and clar- months. This amendment aims at avoiding the ity is expected to emerge only at the time of so-called “electoral tourism”, which has been singing the final contract for the construction practised for years now, mainly by the MRF, by of the “Belene” NPP project. organizing the Bulgarian immigrants to Tur- The GERB governing majority together with key and bringing them to Bulgaria for a day or the Attack Party MPs passed the new Electoral two in order to secure a substantial number of Code, which was subject to deliberations for votes in target municipalities. The staunchest almost a year now. It unites into a single Act supporters of this amendment are the nation- of Parliament all the rules governing the various alists from the Attack Party. The idea gained kinds of elections held on the territory of this the support of the GERB Party and the Blue Co- country. The most hotly debated were the texts alition as well. The MRF said that this amend- concerning local elections. One of the amendment was depriving Bulgarian citizens from ments envisages that the mayors of the bor- vested rights and that they felt obliged to ad- oughs in the larger cities such as Sofia, Plovdiv, dress the Constitutional Court on this account. and Varna from now on will be appointed rath- The Electoral Code opens up the possibility er than being directly elected by the citizens as for casting e-votes via the Internet, which initial- the law provided for thus far. The major motive ly will only be experimental. In the meantime, 4/2010 5 the governing majority made a decision for next which Brussels monitors the progress made by year’s local and presidential elections to be held the two countries in the sectors of justice and on the same day – on one of the Sundays in home affairs. The EC Report is due in February October 2011. and, according to the French-German letter, it Despite the continuing extensive media cov- has to be properly assessed by the EU member erage of police actions and operations, genuine countries, especially with respect to the issue results in the combat against organized crime concerning the capacity of these two countries and corruption have not been achieved over this to cope with organized crime and corruption, last quarter of the year as well. One of the in- which contain the potential of endangering the dicative law-court cases – the one against the integrity of the Union. Despite the joint French- so-called “Galev brothers” – ended up with a German stance on the issue, the country’s top not-guilty verdict. Another case against the al- officials hope to join the EU border-free zone by leged motorway robbers nicknamed ‘the Croc- the end of 2011 as scheduled. odiles” also ended up with their exoneration. On the other hand, in order to secure a more The case against the gang of the kidnappers sophisticated judiciary mechanism, which will nicknamed “the Impertinent” was given a con- be better prepared to hear criminal cases involv- tinuance for a yet another time. The law-court ing organized crime, the government has been modified the remand measure of the former considering for almost a year now the institu- agent of the State National Security Agency, tion of special criminal courts. Eventually, after Alexei Petrov, into home arrest. A number of consultations with the Venetian Commission, the charges brought up against him were lifted at the end of December Parliament passed an because of the lack of sufficient proof and only amendment to the Judiciary Act providing for those for extortion are still in force. These cases the establishment of such a specialized criminal show that Bulgaria is still incapable of finding an law-court. The governing majority hopes that appropriate way of combating organized crime. such a specialization will yield the results, on The accusations circulated by the governing ma- which both Bulgarian society and the EU com- jority that the problems are wholly due to the ju- munity have insisted for quite some time now. diciary seem increasingly more unsubstantiated. The month of December witnessed a new According to insiders, there are serious short- wave of rows, which received international re- comings in the process of investigation and the verberations as well and continued to under- performance of the police as well. mine the confidence rating of the government The fact that there are misgivings concerning (for further detail see the Opinion Poll Section). the adequate performance of the law-enforce- The first one came with the revelation that the ment bodies and the judiciary in this country on Head of Bulgaria’s Agriculture Fund, Kalina Ilieva, the part of Bulgaria’s EU partners was the letter turned out to have forged her university degree of the French and German Presidents sent in the diploma. The second one erupted with the rev- last decade of December to the European Com- elations of the special Commission responsible mission, whereby they demand for the postpone- for the opening of the former communist State ment of Bulgaria’s and Romania’s accession to Security files. On its website the Commission the Schengen zone on account of doubts about published a list of incumbent Bulgarian diplo- their preparedness for the task of being reliable mats at the level of ambassadors and heads of external borders of the Union. Their letter insists consular offices who had been former State Se- that such a decision be made only after the so- curity officers, agents, and collaborators. Most called EC Cooperation and Verification Mecha- of the 218 names now revealed used to work nism (CVM) Report has been published, through for the communist Intelligence and Counter- 6 4/2010

intelligence units. What is even more striking 2.1.1. The GERB Party is the fact that over the past twenty years the The last three months of 2010 will be remem- number of former State Security agents at top bered with the series of rows, in which the GERB positions in the Diplomatic Service has been Party was involved. The release of Alexei Petrov growing instead of diminishing, to reach as high from his remand measure of custodial deten- as close to 50 percent. tion and his transfer to home arrest unleashed In connection with this latest row, the com- a succession of public attacks directed at the ments of the foreign press focused on the fact governing majority. The OLJ – the party, which that 21 years after the fall of communism, the is seemingly quite close to Petrov and receives successive Bulgarian governments have proved information from his sources – accused Tzvetan incapable of coping with the legacy of the for- Tzvetanov, the Minister of Interior, of concealing mer State Security Services. facts concerning the real estate he owns. The In order to prevent any further damages information disseminated by the OLJ is related to the authority, reliability, and credibility of to several apartments bought by Tzvetanov, the the country abroad, on the eve of Christmas value of which – in the opinion of the OLJ leader, Night the Cabinet made the decision to recall Yane Yanev, – exceeded the amount of income all diplomats exposed for belonging to the for- received by Tzvetanov over the last few years. mer State Security Services in one or another In response to this information, the BSP capacity. To this end, the President will have to even accused the Minister of Interior of abuse sign a decree for their recall. At a special press of office and conflict of interests and threat- conference, Prime Minister Borissov said that ened to address the Prosecutor’s Office to this after their recall these people will continue effect. According to the socialists, at the time to work at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs un- when Tzvetanov served as Deputy Sofia City til their retirement, as Bulgarian law does not Mayor, Sofia Municipality concluded dozens of provide for any lustration mechanisms or other deals with a company, which subsequently sold forms of disqualifying from office. an apartment to Tzvetanov at an extremely low cost. The implicating factor here, in the opinion 2. Situation and Development of the BSP, is that the manager of this company of the Party System in Bulgaria is a close friend of Tzvetanov’s. Tzvetanov denied the allegations by saying 2.1. Trends in the Right-Wing that they were circulated by figures connected Political Environment with organized crime, their main intention be- The Blue Coalition is about to go into opposi- ing to destabilize the country’s governance. He tion to the GERB Party. Most likely, an official an- declared that he had bought the apartments by nouncement to this effect will be made at the a combination of a bank loan and personal sav- beginning of next year with a view to the up- ings from salaries and the royalty for an analysis coming local and presidential elections due to commissioned to him on the crime-related situa- take place in the fall of 2011. In this way, from tion in the country. However, Tzvetanov refused then on, GERB would be able to rely only on the to name the entity, which ordered this analysis. parliamentary support of the nationalists from The Minister of Interior confirmed that one of the the Attack Party. The OLJ party has launched a apartments was bought from a friend of his at campaign aimed at discrediting members of the a cost lower than the market value, but he saw incumbent government, which has further exac- nothing extraordinary and improper in this fact. erbated the poignant political discourse between The National Revenue Agency (NRA) made the governing majority and the opposition. an audit of Tzvetanov’s personal estate and 4/2010 7 came up with the opinion that no infringe- ing to the OLJ, Ivanov owns more than 40 real ments of the taxation law were found. The BSP state pieces of property amounting to a total remained dissatisfied with Tzvetanov’s explana- market value of more than BGN 10 million, tions and the NRA position and even tabled a which runs counter to his declaration concern- demand that a parliamentary inquiry commit- ing his personal estate. Andrei Ivanov denied tee be set at Parliament in order to review the the attacks and qualified them as political alle- case. This demand of theirs, as expected, was gations against the governance of the country. promptly rejected by the parliamentary majority. The ruling party was involved in a yet an- The accusations against Tzvetan Tzvetanov other serious row, which once again puts the have adversely affected his personal political issue about GERB’s cadre policy and potential rating. Several opinion poll agencies have re- to the fore. At the end of November it became corded a decline of his confidence rating by as clear that the diploma of the recent director of much as 10 percent. the National Agricultural Fund, Kalina Illieva, Tzvetanov’s name was involved in another testifying that she had acquired a Master’s De- row as well. According to a statement of his, gree in Germany, is totally forged. Ilieva was ap- the ex-Prosecutor-in-Chief, Nickola Filchev, pointed Head of the Fund last year when she was suspected for ordering the murder of pros- was only 29 years old. Previously she had been ecutor Nickolai Kolev in 2002. The Prosecutor’s a junior expert at the same institution. Doubts Office denied having received any such infor- about her competence were reverberating in mation thus far and no pre-trial investigation the public environment for quite a long time, was ever held to this effect. Filchev was inter- and as early as a year ago the opposition ex- rogated only in the capacity of a witness. The pressed its misgivings about the genuine quality DSB qualified Tzvetanov’s conduct as inadmis- and authenticity of Illieva’s diploma. This case sible and non-professional and even made a moves once again to the top of the agenda the demand for his resignation. policy GERB has been pursuing with respect to Despite Tzvetanov’s conduct and the attacks its expert potential. addressed to him, Prime Minister Boiko Borissov The attacks against the GERB Party will con- lent him his full and unconditional support and tinue in the future as well – especially within the declared that he was satisfied with the work Tz- context of the local and presidential elections vetanov was doing. Nonetheless, over the past next year. All signs indicate that certain circles few months, the criticism Tzvetanov has been in the country will attempt to destabilize the subjected to is on the rise. Critical to him are government by means of compromising materi- not only opposition parties, but also a number als and information. Whether this will affect the of civic organizations and professional associa- government depends on the capacity of GERB tions. Cases, in which the police have been ac- to cope with the actual political problems. cused of arbitrary acts and abuse of civil rights, are becoming increasingly more frequent. For 2.1.2. The Attack Party the time being, however, Tzvetanov continues The Attack Party reacted very harshly to Prime to enjoy the support of the European countries Minister Borissov’s statement expressing the and the USA for the efforts he has been making country’s support for the EU accession of Tur- in the combat against organized crime. key during Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s official visit The OLJ Party launched accusations ad- to Sofia. To show their indignation, the Attack dressed at another key representative of the Party MPs entered the Plenary Hall of Parliament GERB Party, namely the Chairman of the Sofia clad in black T-shirts with the inscription “No to City Municipal Council, Andrei Ivanov. Accord- Turkey in the EU”. From the parliamentary ros- 8 4/2010

trum, the party leader, Volen Siderov, expressed tions because of their disagreement with the his gross dissatisfaction with Borissov’s words actions of the national party leadership, which and insisted that GERB should “rectify the error in their opinion was blocking the functioning of it has committed”. the local organizations and was replacing the The Attack Party organized a rally in the city votes cast by the supporters of the party. The of Plovdiv against the possible accession of Tur- local leaders demanded the resignation of Volen key to the European Union. At the rally, Siderov Siderov and the entire national leadership. The announced the end of his unconditional support Chairman of the Attack municipal organization for the GERB Party and went on to enumerate in the town of Shoumen, Roumen Roussev, ex- his conditions to the parliamentary majority. One pressed his dissatisfaction with the authoritarian of them was for the government to seek official style practised by his leader. In his opinion, Sid- compensation from the Turkish government to erov failed to take into consideration the opin- the tune of USD 10 billion for the heirs of the ions of the local structures and was one-handed- Bulgarian refugees from the Eastern Thracian ly appointing people to leadership posts. More- lands around the town of Odrin (also known over, the local organizations received no funding as Edrine). The Attack Party also insisted that from the central leadership whatsoever and had the deals signed with the electricity distribution to pay all costs connected with their activities on companies should be revoked. Siderov appealed their own. Dissatisfaction was also expressed on for a review of all privatization deals to be held, account of the fact that the Attack Party was los- followed by taking certain sectors of the econo- ing its own identity because of the unswerving my back to the patrimony of the state. support it was giving to the GERB Party. The Attack Party parliamentary faction The representatives of the Attack Party tabled a draft decision in Parliament with the in the town of Shoumen also expressed their demand for summoning a national referendum strong disagreement with the appointment of on the issue of Turkey’s membership in the Eu- the new district coordinator of the party, Ves- ropean Union. selin Panayotov, because the appointment was Despite Siderov’s critical remarks, over this made without consulting the municipal struc- last quarter of the year as well, the relation- tures of the Attack Party. ships between GERB and the Attack Party did Apart from Shoumen, dissatisfaction with not sustain any significant change. The Attack the central party leadership and the policy pur- has continued to be the party most loyal to the sued by Volen Siderov has been expressed by governing majority, which was made quite ob- the local structures of the party in the towns of vious by the staunch support, which the Attack Rousse, Gabrovo, and Yambol. MPs lent for the numerous legislative initiatives The centrifugal processes taking place launched by the GERB Party, such as the pass- within the Attack Party brought about the res- ing of the 2011 government budget and the ignation of the People’s Deputy Kamen Petkov voting for the Electoral Code. The Attack Party who left the parliamentary faction of the party. stood firmly behind GERB during the non-con- Petkov was the only MP from the Attack par- fidence vote tabled against the government, liamentary faction who refused to give his sup- although it was held only days after Erdoğan’s port to the government at the non-confidence official visit to Bulgaria. vote against the governing majority earlier this The internal problems of the Attack Party fall. With the resignation of Kamen Petkov, the have further exacerbated over the past three Attack parliamentary faction will continue to months. The municipal chairpersons of the party function with 20 MPs. Petkov will stay at Parlia- in the Shoumen district handed in their resigna- ment in the capacity of an independent MP. The 4/2010 9 motive he pointed out for his resignation was significance is due to omissions and defects in his disagreement with the policy pursued by the the process of investigation. party, which – in his opinion – contradicted the The DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, demanded promises the Attack had made to its voters dur- that Tzvetan Tzvetanov hand in his resignation. ing the general election campaign. Apart from the resignation of the Minister of In- terior, Kostov said that another four ministers 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition had to be replaced as well, namely the Ministers (made up by Democrats for of Transport, Health, Culture, and Agriculture Strong Bulgaria, DSB, and the respectively. In Kostov’s opinion, the Cabinet Union of Democratic Forces, UDF) badly needed a radical re-shuffle, both in terms The past quarter saw the expected turnabout in of its human resources potential and the policies the attitude of the Blue Coalition towards the it has been pursuing thus far. GERB Party governance. The traditional Bulgar- Another major subject matter, on account ian Right Wing is about to go into opposition. of which there has traditionally been a deep Although this has not been officially announced division of opinions between the GERB Party yet, there are unmistakable signs that DSB and and the Blue Coalition, concerns the energy the UDF have begun to strongly differentiate projects based on agreements with Russian themselves from the policies pursued by the partners. Before the arrival of Prime Minister GERB Party. A clear indication of this change is Putin in Bulgaria, the Blue Coalition appealed the abstention of the Blue Coalition throughout to the government to refrain from signing the the entire parliamentary procedure of passing “South Stream” agreement and making any the 2011 Government Budget. other commitments whatsoever without public In one of his parliamentary speeches, Mar- clarification of the economic consequences they tin Dimitrov went as far as to speculate about entail. According to Martin Dimitrov, otherwise the possibility for holding an early general elec- this would be an unsecured and non-transpar- tion next year because of the crisis in the gov- ent contract signed without a clear idea of the ernance of the country. In his opinion, the Blue benefits it could bring to the country. Inthe Coalition is getting ready for elections and it opinion of the UDF, the “South Stream” project will become increasing more recognizable by will bring about no genuine diversification, as it the electorate as the right-wing alternative to would rather be a yet another confirmation of the incumbent government. the energy dependence of Bulgaria on Russia. Thus far the criticism of the Blue Coalition ad- DSB came up with a political resolution, dressed to the country’s governance concerned which states that the party would continue mainly the area of the economy, the anti-crisis to fight against “any going back on the Euro- measures, and the slow-down of the reforms in Atlantic modernization of Bulgaria, against any the public sector. Apart from that, however, a attempt to sacrifice the Bulgarian national inter- critical attitude has emerged now concerning ests in favor of Russia”. The Blue Coalition also the effective performance of the Ministry of voiced its criticism of the memorandum signed Interior as well. The UDF leader, Martin Dimi- between Bulgaria and Russia for the construc- trov, accused Tzvetanov of arbitrary police acts tion of the “Belene” Nuclear Power Plant. and abuse of civil rights. At the same time, ac- In November, DSB summoned the National cording to the UDF leader, the combat against Assembly of the party. The Assembly made a organized crime and corruption is waged in an decision concerning the strategy of the party ineffective manner, because the lack of guilty at the local and presidential elections due to be verdicts connected with the judicial cases of key held next year. According to the DSB leadership, 10 4/2010

the Blue Coalition should run these elections in the moral and financial support of Alexei Petrov. its current format, attracting to its ranks other Nonetheless, the latest events around the OLJ right-centrist political formations at the same party and Alexei Petrov rather seem to confirm time. The decision also envisages that the Co- the proximity between the former NSSA agent alition should run these elections independently and Yanev’s party. The impression formed by the with candidates of its own in every possible con- public opinion in this country about the connec- stituency and should not support the nomina- tions of the OLJ with one of the most contro- tions of other political entities at the first leg of versial figures of the Bulgarian transition has the upcoming local and presidential elections. had rather an adverse effect on the image of In the opinion of Ivan Kostov, the Blue Coalition the party. The opinion poll surveys held over the must make a clear public announcement of its past three months have given a clear indication claim that it will run the elections on its own, yet again about the continuing decline of the because this is the way in which it could enlarge confidence and support for Yane Yanev’s party, its electoral support. the chances of which to get returned to Parlia- The statement of Boiko Borissov express- ment for a second time are practically negligible ing his positive assessment of the activity of at the time being. the former communist leader, Todor Zhivkov, The OLJ party tabled a demand at Parliament provoked a pointed reaction on the part of the for holding a Referendum on the issue of sum- Blue Coalition. According to Borissov, any gov- moning a Grand National Assembly and termi- ernment would be considered to have made a nating the powers of the incumbent Parliament, huge achievement, should it manage to attain which was supported by a subscription contain- the economic growth rate of the state ruled by ing almost 600 thousand signatures of rank- Todor Zhivkov. The Blue Coalition accused Bo- and file citizens from the whole country. Yane rissov of attempting to exonerate the former Yanev said that this subscription was in practice communist regime and introduce changes to an unequivocal and direct non-confidence vote the current system of values. The Blue Coalition against the incumbent GERB governance. sent a special declaration to the European Peo- The Speaker of the National Assembly, ple’s Party (EPP), whereby they demanded that Tzetzka Tzacheva, declared that this was not the Bulgarian Prime Minister be reprimanded the appropriate moment in time for dissolving for the assessments voiced by him. the incumbent Parliament, because at a time of an economic crisis and implementation of im- 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, portant reforms the country needed a properly and Justice Party (OLJ) functioning legislative body. The first people to visit Alexei Petrov after his re- The OLJ party marked the fifth anniversary of mand measure for charges connecting him with its establishment by holding its National Confer- organized crime was modified from custodial ar- ence. One of the announcements made at the rest to home arrest were representatives of the forum was that the party would run the local OLJ party headed by the party leader, Yane Yanev. and presidential elections next year indepen- As soon as the encounter with Alexei Petrov was dently. Yane Yanev declared that his party was over, Yane Yanev said that the former agent of the genuine right-wing alternative to the incum- the National State Security Agency (NSSA) was bent government and that the major objective inclined to head an expert council within the OLJ of the OLJ was to pass a new Bulgarian Constitu- on issues related to national security. tion and establish a stable two-party model. For a yet another time Yane Yanev denied Yane Yane also announced that in the com- the allegations that his party was set up with ing months the OLJ would form a shadow gov- 4/2010 11 ernment of its own. Its strategic objectives will The BSP party leader, Sergei Stanishev, ex- focus on education, economic growth, and pressed his skepticism as regards Parvanov’s vi- combating corruption. At this forum, the OLJ of- sion about a broad national unification of the ficially established its youth organization called left-wing and right-wing political entities in this “The Young for Order, Legality, and Justice”. country. In Stanishev’s opinion, politics is a mat- An address of greetings to the delegates to ter of values, which differentiate both the po- the Conference was read on behalf of Alexei litical parties and the policies they pursue. The Petrov, which is a yet another proof of his in- BSP leader expressed his conviction that the ABV volvement with this party. Movement would inevitably grow into a political party and reminded that both the National Move- 2.2. Trends in the ment Simeon the Second (NMSII) and Citizens for Parliamentary Opposition European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) were conceived to emerge as civic movements but lat- 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) er on became political parties. Stanishev voiced The Third Session of the 47th Congress of the his firm stance that should this happen, his par- BSP was held in the middle of October. Un- ty comrades were then obliged to categorically like the previous two sessions of the Congress, take sides. He also said that the BSP was the only which took place in an atmosphere of tension genuine alternative to the GERB Party and the and confrontation, the third session conducted incumbent government of the country. its business without the habitual attacks of the One of the representatives of the left-wing internal party opposition against the party lead- faction within the BSP, Krassimir Premyanov, ership. This is an indication of the attempts the also took the stance that the ABV Movement party has been making to achieve consolidation would grow into a party, because the establish- on the eve of the local and presidential elections ment of an organizational network with local next year, which does not mean that the inter- structures was an indubitable sign for this. He nal opposition has acquiesced with the current expressed his own concerns that Parvanov’s status quo. In all likelihood, the internal party ABV project held the potential of splitting the adversaries of Sergei Stanishev will wait to see BSP electorate. the outcome of these elections and should they A different stance was expressed by Rou- prove adverse for the party, they will once again men Petkov, former Minister of Interior, who is raise the demand for his resignation. known for his close contacts with the President. The Congress mapped out the major objec- In his statement, Petkov defended the initiatives of the party focused on the mobilization of tive of President Parvanov. In Roumen Petkov’s the party to win the presidential and local elec- opinion, with his entire activity during the past tions next year. A decision was also made that twenty years Paravanov has demonstrated his by March 2011 at the latest a coalition agree- desire to unite the Left, not to disunite it. This ment with other left-wing parties for jointly was the reason why Petkov appealed to the BSP running next year’s elections should have been to declare its positive attitude to the ABV Move- drafted and put into effect accordingly. ment in a sufficiently unambiguous way. President Parvanov’s initiative for the estab- The MEP Christian Vigenin also addressed lishment of the ABV Movement was one of the President Parvanov’s initiative and said that this principal topics, which governed the internal party issue had not been subject to an official debate debate within the BSP. The socialists discussed this in the Party of European Socialists. Nevertheless, issue at a party plenum where the participants ex- Vigenin shared his opinion that some concerns pressed rather disparate stances and views. had been expressed by the European socialists 12 4/2010

about the unity of the Bulgarian Left Wing. Vi- her, it has been proven beyond any reasonable genin thinks that should the ABV Movement doubt that Ahmed Dogan lacks the competency grow into a party, then PES would unequivocally to perform hydro-geological examinations and stand in support of the BSP. consequently the contracts signed with him On the whole, the Plenum was dominat- have been concluded with a view to his capacity ed by the conviction that the ABV Movement of Member of Parliament and leader of a party, would eventually become a party. A large part which at that time was a constituent part of Ser- of the socialists are ill at ease that this could gei Stanishev’s Cabinet and the tri-partite coun- split the votes in favor of the BSP. However, the try’s governance. motion tabled to vote for a written declaration The motives of Judge Marina Mikhailova expressing the stance of the Plenum concerning also state that one portion of Dogan’s royalty the presidential project was turned down by the – to the tune of BGN 453 thousand – was trans- leader of the party, Sergei Stanishev. ferred to him before the Conflict of Interests Act came into force and this money the MRF leader 2.2.2. Movement for Rights could legitimately retain. The rest of the amount and Freedoms (MRF) – to the tune of BGN 1.36 million – was paid af- Over the last quarter of 2010, the MRF enhanced ter the Conflict of Interests Act was part of the its criticism directed at the governing majority. country’s legislation and this sum had to be duly The party refused to vote for the 2011 Govern- declared before the taxation authorities. Dogan, ment Budget and sharply reacted to the provision however, failed to do so and therefore the quot- requiring a ten months’ permanent residence ed amount is legally subject to confiscation. eligibility for local election voters laid down in The final decision on this administrative law- the new Electoral Code. The MRF qualified this suit will be made by a five-member panel of the measure as an attempt to deprive potential vot- Supreme Administrative Court. In the mean- ers from vested political rights, which by itself is time, representatives of the MRF expressed their a gross violation of the Bulgarian Constitution. satisfaction with the ruling of the three-mem- A pending law-suit, which directly involves ber panel and said that it was a just decision. the MRF, reached a resolution. A three-member Once again they repeated the thesis that the panel of the Supreme Administrative Court ruled accusations against Ahmed Dogan were actu- that the Chairman of the Movement for Rights ally a political attack against the MRF party and and Freedoms, Ahmed Dogan, did not infringe its leader on the part of the incumbent govern- the Conflict of Interests Act and the requirement aimed at discrediting both the leader and ments governing the conduct of the Bulgarian the party in the public environment. members of parliament on account of the royalty of over EUR 1 million he had received for 3. Public Opinion consultancy services in connection with the construction of the “Tzankov kamak” hydro-elec- According to an opinion poll survey held by the tric power plant. Two of the judges think that Alpha Research Agency at the beginning of Oc- there has been no such infringement because tober, the electoral support for the GERB Party his contracts with the Institute of Construction has declined from 30.4 percent in June to 27.5 and Mining were signed in 2008, whereas the percent in October. The outflow of support for Conflict of Interests Act came in force in 2009. GERB is mainly due to right-wing voters and The Chair of the three-member panel, Judge economically active inhabitants of larger towns Marina Mikhailova, however, signed the court and cities who feel dissatisfied with the post- decision with a dissenting opinion. According to ponement of reforms in key public sectors of 4/2010 13 the economy. Despite their disillusionment, the Stanishev, has managed to stabilize his positions right-wing voters who feel disappointed with for the time being and the confidence rating the incumbent government are still incapable he enjoyed in October was around 13 percent, of seeing any other political alternative and this whereas his rating four months earlier – in June determines their tendency to refrain from voting 2010 – amounted to 10 percent. for any party whatsoever. This is the reason why If the general election were held in October the number of respondents refusing to vote has 2010, 5 percent of the voters would cast their risen to 41 percent. ballots for the MRF and this percentage roughly The Blue Coalition has retained the rate of equals the size of the rock-bottom MRF elector- electoral support it enjoyed at the beginning ate. The Attack Party continues to lose electoral of this summer of 4.1 percent but is still prov- support and only 2.7 percent of the electorate ing incapable of increasing its electoral capacity would vote for it. The OLJ party has marked a yet due to the hesitant right-wing voters who cast another decline of its electoral support and for their ballots in favor of the GERB Party a year the time being its chances to make to the Parlia- ago. The approval ratings of co-Chairs of the ment are practically negligible, because only 0.9 Blue Coalition, Ivan Kostov and Martin Dimitrov, percent of the electorate would vote for it. stand at about 10 percent. The October opinion poll survey of the Al- The approval, which Prime Minister Boiko pha Research Agency indicates that the domi- Borissov enjoys, stands at 43 percent, while his nating overall perception in society is for a lack disapproval rating has reached 23 percent. The of any lasting improvement of the economic Minister of Interior, Tzvetan Tzvetanov, enjoys situation in the country. A proof to this effect the highest approval rating out of all other minis the opinion of 46 percent of the respondents isters in the Cabinet, but what is notable here a who say that the economic recession has not trend of decline: from 45 percent in June to 37 come to an end yet. percent in October. The rows, which Tzvetanov’s Although the National Statistical Institute name has been involved in, however, are likely provided data about the stabilization of the to further decrease his approval rating. Bulgarian economy, 32 percent of the em- The trend for an ongoing decline of Presi- ployed consider that the situation in their com- dent Parvanov’s approval rating has continued. panies has been worsening, while more than From 47 percent in September 2009, his rating 70 percent of the respondents see no signs of stands at 32 percent at the beginning of Octo- overcoming the crisis in the short- and medi- ber 2010. It is not quite clear yet in what a way um-term time span. his rating will be affected by the launch of his The end of December opinion poll survey presidential ABV Movement political project. held again by the same Alpha Research Agency The October data from the Alpha Research has yielded some interesting results, which up- electoral attitude survey shows that 13.6 per- date the October data. The latest survey actually cent of the voters would cast their ballots for tests how the rows and the poor economic situ- the BSP. This is an indication that the electoral ation in the country have impacted the attitudes decline, which the party was experiencing un- of the population in terms of the confidence til recently, has already been overcome. Despite ratings of the parties and the leading politicians. this fact, however, the majority of voters fail to As expected, the rating of the GERB Party recognize this party as an alternative to the in- was most adversely affected by the row around cumbent government in anticipation of the local the MPs who left a session of the National As- and presidential elections next year, due to take sembly with the expectation to receive as gifts place in October 2011. The BSP leader, Sergei expensive VERTU cell phones having attended 14 4/2010

an event staged by journalists. The public opin- the negative opinion of the respondents (39 per- ion has been further negatively affected by the cent) significantly exceeds their positive opinion saga with the forged diploma of the former (24 percent). Nonetheless, Prime Minister Boiko Head of the Bulgarian Agriculture Fund, Kalina Borissov has retained his traditional positive bal- Illieva, the rows with the real estate posses- ance, whereby his approval rating stands at 42 sions of Tzvetan Tzvetanov and Andrei Ivanov, percent against the 29 percent of disapproval the outrageous paid trip to Venice made by the accorded to him by the respondents. Minister of Culture, Vehdi Rashidov, as well as On the whole, 46 percent of the respondents the transfer of the reserve of the national Health are satisfied with GERB’s governance, while the Insurance Fund to the government budget. number of the dissatisfied amounts to 51 - per In numeric terms, the December Alpha Re- cent. The support for the government is still at search opinion poll has produced the following a sufficiently high level, but sociologists think results. The confidence rating of the Minister of that this is mainly due to the lack of a convincing Interior, Tzvetan Tzvetanov, has declined by 12 moral alternative to the incumbent government. percent. Despite this poor result, however, the If the general election were held in December Prime Minister and leader of the party, Boiko 2010, the GERB Party would capture the votes Borissov, intends to nominate him as the par- of 27 percent of the electorate (thus marking a ty candidate for the presidential election next slight decrease in comparison with the October year. The confidence rating of the Minister of data), the BSP – 15.2 percent (which is a result Agriculture, Miroslav Naidenov, has dropped higher by 1.6 percent than the October data), by 5 percent. A predominant lack of electoral the MRF – 5 percent, the Blue Coalition – 4.4 confidence has been measured in the ratings percent (marking a slight increase in comparison of Vezhdi Rashidov, Sergei Ignatov, and Simeon with the October data), and the Attack Party – 3 Dyankov as well. percent (also marking a slight increase). The upsides for the image of the GERB Party President Georgi Parvanov, who has been over the past three months stem mainly from very active of late, continues to lose public sup- Christallina Georgieva’s election for European of port. In December his approval rating stands at 32 the year and the launch of the process of de- percent (no change in comparison with October), molishing the illegal development of buildings but the disapproval, which the respondents have in various parts of the country. This may be the expressed of him, now amounts to 31 percent. reason why the confidence rating of the Minis- ter of Regional Development and Public Works, 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts Rossen Plevneliev, has marked an 11 percent 1. The approaching local and presidential rise, which ranks him first out of all other minis- elections due to take place next year have exac- ters in Boiko Borissov’s Cabinet. Thus he toppled erbated the political discourse among the major Tzvetan Tzvetanov from his traditional leading parties in the country. The rhetoric, however, is position and now the Minister of Interior ranks being increasing shifted from actual politics to second. There has also been a rise in the con- personal attacks, accusations, and compromis- fidence ratings of the Minister of Foreign Af- ing materials, the aim of which is to taint the fairs, Nickolai Mladenov, and the Minister of the image of the political rivals or adversaries. This Economy, Energy, and Tourism, Traicho Traikov. will continue over the coming year as well, both The declining confidence rating of the larg- before and at the time of the election campaign. er part of the ministers, however, has brought It is precisely with a view to the upcoming elec- about the overall decline of the support, which tions that the political parties are planning their the incumbent government enjoys. In December tactical moves. 4/2010 15

2. Despite the hesitant policies of the GERB to the Schengen zone. Should this effort fail, Party in a number of political areas, its rating re- the criticism addressed to the governing party mains high. This is a sufficient proof to the fact will get increasingly stronger. that at the time being there is no other genu- 3. For the first time ever since the GERB Par- ine electoral alternative capable of incurring ty came into office, the Attack Party announced an election defeat to the incumbent governing that its support for the governing majority is party. The rows around the party over the past not unconditional. The occasion on which this several months have brought about the decline statement was made was the official visit of the of the electoral support, which thus far it has Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Erdoğan, to Bul- been enjoying. Whenever even shreds of doubt garia. At the talks with his Turkish counterpart about improprieties and corruption among Boiko Borissov declared that Bulgaria supported the representatives of the governing party are the efforts Turkey has been making to accede launched into the public space, this affects the the EU as a full-fledged member country. The voter attitudes. violent reaction of the Attack Party, however, A large part of the Bulgarian voters gave was more of a show piece, as nothing has in- their electoral support to the GERB Party be- dicated ever since that its attitude to the GERB cause of its anti-corruption program and the Party has been changed. All legislative initiatives promises that organized crime will be dealt with. tabled by the governing majority are unfailingly It is coping with organized crime precisely that supported by the Attack. will put GERB to the hardest test. Despite the The Attack Party has lost a number of its lo- numerous police actions and operations, actual cal structures and with the closer approach of results and guilty verdicts are still lacking. There next year’s elections this trend may become en- is a growing conviction among the population demic. Therefore, should no change in Attack’s that the underlying problems can be found not behavior occur, the party will sustain a heavy only in the judicial practices, but also in the in- loss at the upcoming local elections. vestigation authorities and the performance of 4. The Blue Coalition is increasingly becom- the police itself. ing one of the staunchest and most serious crit- The GERB Party is losing the support of the ics of the GERB Party. It is highly likely for it to Blue Coalition and from now on the government go officially into opposition to the governing will have to rely for its very survival increasingly majority quite soon. Such a strategy seems justi- more heavily on the parliamentary votes of the fied from an internal party point of view. Opin- nationalists from the Attack Party. ion poll surveys indicate that a sizeable part of From a medium-term point of view, next the right-wing voters who cast their ballots for year’s elections will be especially important the GERB Party at the last general election are for the GERB Party. The closer they approach, disappointed with the policies pursued by the however, the more the likelihood for imple- ruling party. Thus far, the Blue Coalition failed to menting genuine reforms will be receding. be perceived as a credible right-wing alternative Traditionally, parties think first and foremost due to its unclear status and its ambivalent at- about elections and their electoral perfor- titude to the governing majority. Should it dare mance, whereas reforms may bring about the take a clear stance on the issue, it could attract outflow of potential electorate, which on the to it the vacillating right-wing voters. This is the whole dissuades political entities from pushing reason why the Blue Coalition decided to run through painful reforms. the first leg of next year’s local and presidential From a short-term point of view, what is elections independently, i.e. only with candi- very important for GERB is Bulgaria’s accession dates of its own. Besides, the current format of 16 4/2010

the Coalition may well expand with the involve- Court on the issue, making a final attempt for ment of other right-wing parties. the requirement to be revoked. The MRF leader, 5. For some time now, the OLJ is waging Ahmed Dogan, continues to shun media atten- a war with compromising materials against tion. For several months now he has made no the governing majority. In all likelihood, Yane notable appearance in the public environment. Yanev’s party will continue with these tactical The situation will most probably change with moves into the coming year as well. The lack of the approach of the upcoming elections and other political arguments is one of the reasons Dogan is sure to take an active part in the par- why the OLJ has put its stakes on developing ty’s local election campaigns as he has always such a strategy. It proved really successful for done so far. the party at the previous general election, but The MRF is becoming an increasingly louder the situation is radically different now. The hy- critic of the governing majority, although its pothesis about the connection between the OLJ representatives have managed to avoid exces- and Alexei Petrov is becoming increasingly more sive confrontation at the same time. The party credible. But this connection has been adversely rhetoric continues to be moderate and this style impacting the public image of the OLJ party. of public conduct will most probably remain un- 6. The emergence of the presidential ABV changed. As far as the presidential election is Movement project is altering the situation in the concerned, for the time being the MRF position left-wing political environment. For the time be- on this issue remains undisclosed. ing it is still unclear what the objectives of the ABV Movement are and whether it will eventually grow into a party. Representatives of the Movement declared themselves to be an alternative to the GERB Party governance. The circle around the BSP party leader, Ser- gei Stanishev, seems to be rather critical with respect to the ABV Movement and fears that the latter could eventually split the Left Wing. There are other circles within the party, however, which have expressed their positive attitude to the presidential initiative. Although the About the editors: internal party opposition to a large extent has Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of Phil- moderated its attacks against Stanishev, which osophical Sciences, is Head of the Department became pretty obvious at the Party Congress, of Political Science at the “St. Kliment Ohridski” this may only be a mere tactical move. It is high- Sofia University, Director of the Institute for Po- ly unlikely for any changes to be made to the litical and Legal Studies, and Editor-in-Chief of party leadership before next year’s elections, but the “Political Studies” Journal. Between 1991 if the party should sustain an election defeat, and 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian the subject matter about the resignation of the Association for Political Sciences. Contact point: party leader would inevitably top the BSP agen- [email protected] da once again. 7. The MRF is the party most badly affected Doctor Milen Ljubenov is Assistant Profesor at by the requirement for a permanent residence the Department of Political Science at Sofia Uni- status of the voters at the local elections. The versity “St. Kliment Ohridski” Contact: mluben- party is likely to address the Constitutional [email protected] The upcoming elections due to take place next year have exacerbated the political discourse among the major political parties in the country. The topi- cal political rhetoric has increasingly shifted from actual politics to personal attacks, accusations, and allegations, aimed at tainting the reputation of the political opponent and rival. This situation will be observed over the coming year as well, right through the local and presidential election campaigns.