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Standard Form 298 (Rev Examination of Habitat Fragmentation and Effects on Species Persistence in the Vicinity of Naval Base Pt. Loma and Marine 1953 Corps Air Station Miramar, San Diego, CA and Development of a Multi-Species Planning Framework for Fragmented Landscapes Final Report 1974 Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) Project Number 1473 Lead Principal Investigator Dawn M. Lawson Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southwest and SPAWAR Systems Center (SSC) San Diego February 2011 2005 Table of Contents Page Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 3 2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Conservation Planning ....................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Case Study ......................................................................................................................... 8 3.0 Materials and Methods ......................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Study Species ................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Ceanothus verrucosus ............................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 Quercus dumosa ........................................................................................................ 13 3.1.3 Chorizanthe orcuttiana ............................................................................................. 15 3.1.4 Neotoma macrotis ..................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Landscape Data ................................................................................................................ 19 3.2.1 Current Climate and Future Climate Projections ...................................................... 19 3.2.2 Future Habitat Loss and Fragmentation .................................................................... 20 3.2.3 Fire Regime and Fire History ................................................................................... 20 3.2.4 Vegetation Data ........................................................................................................ 21 3.2.5 Patch Isolation ........................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Habitat Suitability Models—Current and Future Spatial Distributions ........................... 22 3.3.1 Ceanothus verrucosus HSM ..................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 Quercus dumosa HSM .............................................................................................. 26 3.3.3 Chorizanthe orcuttiana HSM ................................................................................... 26 3.3.4 Neotoma macrotis HSM ........................................................................................... 27 3.4 Population Demographic Models .................................................................................... 27 3.4.1 Ceanothus verrucosus Demographic Model ............................................................. 28 3.4.2 Quercus dumosa Demographic Model ..................................................................... 28 3.4.3 Chorizanthe orcuttiana Demographic Model ........................................................... 30 3.4.4 Neotoma macrotis Demographic Model ................................................................... 31 3.5 Multi-Species Analysis .................................................................................................... 31 3.5.1 Artificial Landscape .................................................................................................. 32 3.5.2 Real landscape .......................................................................................................... 32 3.5.3 Biodiversity Objective Functions ............................................................................. 33 4.0 Results and Accomplishments ............................................................................................. 35 4.1 Vegetation Map and Patch Isolation ................................................................................ 35 4.2 Habitat Suitability Models ............................................................................................... 38 4.2.1 Ceanothus verrucosus ............................................................................................... 40 4.2.2 Quercus dumosa ........................................................................................................ 43 4.2.3 Chorizanthe orcuttiana ............................................................................................. 46 4.2.4 Neotoma macrotis ..................................................................................................... 48 4.2.5 Artificial Landscape .................................................................................................. 52 4.3 Population Demographic Models .................................................................................... 52 4.3.1 Sensitivity Analyses .................................................................................................. 52 4.3.1.1 Ceanothus verrucosus ........................................................................................ 52 i 4.3.1.2 Quercus dumosa................................................................................................. 54 4.3.1.3 Chorizanthe orcuttiana ...................................................................................... 54 4.3.1.4 Neotoma macrotis .............................................................................................. 55 4.3.2 Expected Minimum Abundance ............................................................................... 56 4.3.2.1 Single Population Model Results ....................................................................... 56 4.3.2.2 Metapopulation Model Results .......................................................................... 57 4.3.3 Probability of Quasi-Extinction ................................................................................ 58 4.3.4 Dispersal ................................................................................................................... 61 4.3.5 Habitat Loss Scenarios .............................................................................................. 61 4.4 Multi-Species Analysis .................................................................................................... 62 5.0 Conclusions and Implications for Future Research/Implementation ................................... 66 5.1 Conservation Management Recommendations for the Study Area ................................. 66 5.1.1 Management .............................................................................................................. 66 5.1.2 Habitat Patch Value to Species Persistence .............................................................. 67 5.2 Multi-Species Planning Framework ................................................................................ 67 5.3 Implications for Future Research ..................................................................................... 68 5.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 69 6.0 Literature Cited .................................................................................................................... 71 Appendix A—Ceanothus verrucosus Life History and Population Demographic Model Appendix B—Chorizanthe orcuttiana Life History and Population Demographic Model Appendix C—Quercus dumosa Life History and Population Demographic Model Appendix D—Neotoma macrotis Life History and Population Demographic Model Appendix E—Ceanothus verrucosus and Quercus dumosa Field Studies Appendix F—Publications and Degrees Obtained ii List of Figures and Tables Figures Page Figure 1. Regional context. ............................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2. Study area showing military installations and distribution of study species. .................. 6 Figure 3. Ceanothus verrucosus (white flowers) and Quercus dumosa (rust hue). ...................... 12 Figure 4. Ceanothus verrucosus—characteristic warts on stem from which it gets its common name, wart-stemmed Ceanothus. Note alternate leaves characteristically reflexed against the stem. .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 5. Note three-part seed cup characteristic of many species in the genus Ceanothus. ....... 13 Figure 6. Ceanothus verrucosus—five-part axillary flowers. ...................................................... 13 Figure 7. Quercus dumosa leaves—upper side shiny, lower side covered in trichomes. ............. 15 Figure 9. Chorizanthe orcuttiana. ................................................................................................
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