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Getin Noble Bank Buy with TP Down to PLN 0.70 from PLN 0.76

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Getin Noble Bank Buy with TP Down to PLN 0.70 from PLN 0.76 Banks | Poland Recommendation update We downgrade our rating for GNB to Neutral from a Getin Noble Bank Buy with TP down to PLN 0.70 from PLN 0.76. After PLN 230m net loss in 2018E we expect the bank Neutral (from Buy) to turn profitable in 2019E with PLN 24m net profit. TP: PLN 0.70 3 April 2019; 07:45 30.10.2015 Rebound sounds fair. Downgrade to Neutral. Company data YTD Getin Noble Bank gained 91% outperforming WIG Banks index by massive 85pp. Rating Neutral Target Price (PLN) 0.70 While the PLN 4.8bn liquidity aid from Central Bank was repaid, the stock still faces a Market Price (PLN) 0.69 number of risks. We trim our 12M TP for Getin Noble Bank to PLN 0.70 from PLN 0.76 Upside/downside 1% Previous rating Buy and downgrade our rating from a Buy to Neutral. Due to pressure on liquidity we Previous Target Price (PLN) 0.76 expect huge net loss in 4Q18 and barely PLN 24m net profit in 2019E. While, in our Min (52W) 0.18 view, a merger with Idea Bank seems inevitable, it’s still reduction of cost of funding Max (52W) 1.43 Market cap (PLNm) 724 that remains a key challenge for the bank to become competitive and boost growth of earnings. At our estimates Getin Noble Bank is trading at 0.2x P/BV. Shareholders % Leszek Czarnecki 62.8% Support from NBP already repaid... Getin Noble Bank received a total PLN 4.8bn of Other 37.2% central bank aid to support its liquidity given Nov’18 outflows. The bank informed though, that the aid was fully repaid in Feb’19 and GNB’s liquidity measures returned to Company description Getin Noble Bank, with c. PLN 55bn of assets safe levels. (2.9% market share) is the 10th largest bank in …but rising cost of funding will weigh on 4Q18 results ... According to our estimates, Poland. Getin is focused on retail lending and is strongly exposed to mortgage (37% of loan heavy pressure on cost of funding will materially weigh on the bank’s results in coming book) and FX mortgage (23%) loans. Consumer quarters. In 4Q18 we expect declining net interest income (-6% QoQ), weak fees (-24% and corporate loans stand for 15% and 24% of QoQ) and flattish provisions (2% QoQ) to results in PLN -52m net loss (vs. PLN -14m in the bank’s loan book, respectively. In 2016 Getin Noble Bank entered into a restructuring 3Q18 and PLN -341m in 4Q17). plan. … and 2019E numbers. We believe, that in order to turn permanently profitable GNB Getin Noble Bank vs. WIG vs. WIG Banks 12M needs to improve its net interest income through reduction of cost of funding and relative price performance rebased growth of loan book. We expect though 2019E to be still demanding for the bank and 1.5 assume only 2% YoY NII growth, what coupled with flat costs (1% YoY), lower provisions (-14% YoY) and higher financial and other income supported by one-off items, should 1.0 lead to barely PLN 24m net profit (vs. PLN 107m expected previously). 0.5 Inevitable merger with Idea Bank. Given blurred outlook for Getin Noble Bank’s organic growth, a merger with Idea Bank appears inevitable. However, while announced 0.0 synergies (PLN 180m annually starting in 2021) and integration costs (PLN 220m pre-tax) kwi 18 lip 18 paź 18 sty 19 appear reasonable, its still reduction of cost of funding that remains a key challenge to GNB WIG WIG Banki boost growth of earnings and drive positive return on equity. Source: Bloomberg, Vestor DM Any the other possible scenario? Due to potential synergies in cost of funding acquisition of Getin Noble Bank could be tempting for a large bank in Poland. However, such a scenario is rather unlikely, in our view. In our base case we assume a merger with Idea Bank coupled with a capital increase (new investor) to be the only way for both banks to become competitive and turn back on the growth path. Figure 1. Getin Noble Bank – Key data, 2015-2020E 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Net profit (PLNm) 44 -42 -575 -230 24 52 YoY change (%) -88% na na na na 118% Michał Fidelus ROE (%) 4.8% -2.5% -9.5% -5.9% -1.4% 1.4% Head of Research P/E (x) 2.5 na na na 30.5 14.2 (+48) 22 378 9212 P/BV (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 [email protected] DPS (PLN)* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * from the year’s earnings. Source: Company data, Vestor DM estimates All prices are those current at the end of April 01, 2019,17:30 unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Vestor DM and subject companies. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document is an investment research within the meaning of article 36.1 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565 of 25 April 2016 supplementing Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards organizational requirements and operating conditions for investment firms and defined terms for the purposes of that Directive. Getin Noble Bank | April 2019 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Vestor Dom Maklerski S.A. (“Vestor”), with its registered office in Warsaw, al. Jana Pawła II 22, 00-133 Warsaw, registered by the District Court for the capital city Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under the number KRS 0000277384, Taxpayer Identification No. 1080003081, with share capital amounting to PLN 2 009 570 fully paid up, entity that is subject to the regulations of the Act on Trading in Financial Instruments dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2017, item 1768 - consolidated text, further amended), Act on Public Offering, Conditions Governing the Introduction of Financial Instruments to Organised Trading, and Public Companies dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2016, item 1639 consolidated text, further amended), Act on Capital Market Supervision dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2016 item 1289 consolidated text, further amended). Vestor is subject to the supervision of the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority (“PFSA”) and this document has been prepared within the legal scope of the activity of Vestor. This document is an investment research within the meaning of article 36.1 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565 of 25 April 2016 supplementing Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards organisational requirements and operating conditions for investment firms and defined terms for the purposes of that Directive. This document is a recommendation within the meaning of the "Delegated Commission Regulation (EU) No 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards regarding technical means for objective purposes presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest”. Please note that this research was originally prepared and issued by Vestor for distribution to their market professional and institutional investors as defined under the above indicated regulations and to other qualified customers of Vestor entitled to gain recommendations based on the brokerage services agreements. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customers of Vestor should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. Vestor may not have taken any steps to ensure that the financial instruments referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor, therefore in the preparation of this document Vestor not take into account individual needs and situation of the investor.. Vestor will not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Recipients must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. Recipients of this report must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal and financial position. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. Vestor does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in particular that the bases and levels of taxation may change. This report is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial instruments, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial instruments (iii) as an advertisement thereof.
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