TO PROTEST in RUSSIA by Jay Nordlinger 22 45 EPIC of the MIDLANDS an Oppressive Law and the Ordeal of Ildar Dadin

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FEBRUARY 6, 2017 | VOLUME LXIX, NO. 2 | www.nationalreview.com Jay Nordlinger on Ildar Dadin ON THE COVER Page 25 p. 22

Trade Reciprocity BOOKS, ARTS With China & MANNERS There is huge room for improvement 35 PANGLOSS AND THE in economic relations with the BUREAUCRATS Jonathan H. Adler reviews People’s Republic of China. The Law’s Abnegation: From Law’s challenge for the incoming Empire to the Administrative State, by Adrian Vermeule. administration is to consider what China has done in the past but 37 PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH James Pethokoukis reviews An choose responses that work now Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar Boom and the and in the future. Derek Scissors Return of the Ordinary Economy, by Marc Levinson. COVER: THOMAS REIS 38 DARK INTELLECT Brian C. Anderson reviews ARTICLES Existentialism and Excess: The Life and Times of Jean- A RISKY OBAMACARE STRATEGY by Ramesh Ponnuru 16 Pa ul Sartre, by Gary Cox. Republicans are neglecting ‘replace.’ TRUE INVENTIONS LET US NOW PRAISE HOMEMAKERS by Robert Stein 44 18 Richard Brookhiser reviews The Man Attempts to make them get jobs are wrongheaded. Who Invented Fiction: How HELP THEM MOVE by Kevin D. Williamson Cervantes Ushered In the 20 Modern World, by William How to assist the poor in seeking better homes. Egginton. TO PROTEST IN RUSSIA by Jay Nordlinger 22 45 EPIC OF THE MIDLANDS An oppressive law and the ordeal of Ildar Dadin. Kelly Jane Torrance reviews 23 FAREWELL, OBAMA? by Rob Long Jerusalem, by Alan Moore. He isn’t going anywhere. 47 HOLLYWOOD ON HOLLYWOOD Ross Douthat reviews La La Land. FEATURES 25 TRADE RECIPROCITY WITH CHINA by Derek Scissors SECTIONS Some main points of a fair policy. DANGER IN ASIA by Michael Auslin 2 Letters to the Editor 28 The Week A strategy for the incoming administration. 4 33 Athwart ...... James Lileks THE MYTH OF THE VIRTUOUS POOR by David French 34 The Long View ...... Rob Long 30 Poetry ...... Lawrence Dugan In defense of accountability. 45 48 Happy Warrior ...... Andrew Stiles

NATIONAL REVIEW (ISSN: 0028-0038) is published bi-weekly, except for the first issue in January, by N ATIONAL REVIEW, Inc., at 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y., and additional mailing offices. © National Review, Inc., 2017. Address all editorial mail, manuscripts, letters to the editor, etc., to Editorial Dept., N ATIONAL REVIEW, 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016. Address all subscription mail orders, changes of address, undeliverable copies, etc., to NATIONALREVIEW, Circulation Dept., P. O. Box 433015, Palm Coast, Fla. 32143-3015; phone, 386-246-0118, Monday–Friday, 8:00A.M . to 10:30 P.M. Eastern time. Adjustment requests should be accompanied by a current mailing label or facsimile. Direct classified advertising inquiries to: Classifieds Dept., NATIONALREVIEW, 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016 or call 212-679- 7330. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to N ATIONAL REVIEW, Circulation Dept., P. O. Box 433015, Palm Coast, Fla. 32143-3015. Printed in the U.S.A. RATES: $59.00 a year (24 issues). Add $21.50 for Canada and other foreign subscriptions, per year. (All payments in U.S. currency.) The editors cannot be responsible for unsolicited manuscripts or artwork unless return postage or, better, a stamped, self-addressed envelope is enclosed. Opinions expressed in signed articles do not necessarily represent the views of the editors. letters-READY_QXP-1127940387.qxp 1/18/2017 2:08 PM Page 2 Letters

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EDITORINCHIEF Richard Lowry Against Big-Government Conservatism Senior Editors Richard Brookhiser / Jonah Goldberg / Jay Nordlinger Samuel R. Staley argues for a permanent revolving-loan bank (“The Infrastructure Bank Ramesh Ponnuru / David Pryce-Jones Managing Editor Jason Lee Steorts We Need,” December 31). Staley conditions his proposal on the bank’s being “properly Literary Editor Michael Potemra Vice President, Editorial Operations Christopher McEvoy designed and constrained,” but he ignores the political process that would inevitably dis- Executive Editor Reihan Salam tort his ideal design as well as its operation. He also glosses over the most telling point Roving Correspondent Kevin D. Williamson National Correspondent John J. Miller against his proposal: state and local authorities “often preferring to wait for taxpayer- Senior Political Correspondent Jim Geraghty funded grants to shore up dilapidated or outmoded facilities.” Yes, waiting for the federal Art Director Luba Kolomytseva Deputy Managing Editors cornucopia to start gushing has been a substantial contributing cause to the deterioration Nicholas Frankovich / Fred Schwarz of state and local infrastructure. But Staley’s bank would just be an alternative way of Production Editor Katie Hosmer Assistant to the Editor Rachel Ogden spending federal dollars on local projects. I should not be forced to subsidize infrastruc- Research Associate Alessandra Trouwborst ture in any state other than my own. Contributing Editors Robert D. Atkinson (“Toward a National Productivity Strategy,” December 31) Shannen Coffin / Ross Douthat / Daniel Foster Roman Genn / Arthur L. Herman / Lawrence Kudlow advocates “smart government” intervention in the economy to raise productivity. “Smart Mark R. Levin / Yuval Levin / Rob Long government” is a chimera. One of Atkinson’s premises is that “new research suggests.” Mario Loyola / Jim Manzi / Andrew C. McCarthy Kate O’Beirne / Andrew Stuttaford / Robert VerBruggen When research merely “suggests,” one should wait for research to prove. He goes on to NATIONALREVIEWONLINE outline “smart government policies” that will increase productivity. He, too, envisions a Editor Charles C. W. Cooke new bureaucracy. Managing Editor Katherine Connell Deputy Managing Editor Mark Antonio Wright Conservatives should imagine what these new federal bureaucracies might do in the National-Affairs Columnist John Fund Staff Writer David French hands of a future administration. How could their “smart” and “well designed” and Reporter Katherine Timpf “constrained” policies (if we assume these could even exist) be shifted to serve different Associate Editors Molly Powell / Nick Tell Digital Director Ericka Andersen political ends? Technical Services Russell Jenkins These authors take for granted the unlimited power over the economy that the federal Web Editorial Assistant Grant DeArmitt Web Developer Wendy Weihs government arrogated to itself in the past. They just want to use it smarter. The incom- Web Producer Scott McKim ing Trump administration so far seems to feel the same way. However, the election of EDITORS- AT- LARGE 2016 shows that we shouldn’t take anything for granted. That includes the constitu- Kathryn Jean Lopez / John O’Sullivan tional status quo. NATIONALREVIEWINSTITUTE THOMASL. RHODESFELLOW John Krill Ian Tuttle Harrisburg, Pa.

BUCKLEYFELLOWSINPOLITICALJOURNALISM Alexandra DeSanctis / Austin Yack SAMUEL R. STALEY RESPONDS: John Krill raises a valid concern. An infrastructure bank COLLEGIATENETWORKFELLOW does have the potential to be hijacked for political ends, which is why conservatives Paul Crookston should insist a bank use market-tested loan criteria. If the bank is set up as a revolving- Contributors loan fund, where the funds are repaid by the borrowers (as in the private sector), then the Hadley Arkes / James Bowman / Eliot A. Cohen Dinesh D’Souza / Chester E. Finn Jr. / Neal B. Freeman potential scope for political manipulation is smaller compared with the current James Gardner / David Gelernter / George Gilder approach, in which most federal funds are raised through taxes and allocated as grants Jeffrey Hart / Kevin A. Hassett / Charles R. Kesler David Klinghoffer / Anthony Lejeune / Michael Novak or government-to-government transfers without any market-based performance criteria. Alan Reynolds / Tracy Lee Simmons Terry Teachout / Vin Weber But this is a flaw of the current system. The criteria I outline for an infrastructure bank Chief Financial Officer James X. Kilbridge build in more safeguards than that system. The criteria would also require a much greater Accounting Manager Galina Veygman level of accountability and transparency than the current system. Accountant Lyudmila Bolotinskaya Business Services Alex Batey Circulation Manager Jason Ng ROBERT D. ATKINSON RESPONDS: I want to thank Mr. Krill for his letter. Mr. Krill seems Advertising Director Jim Fowler Advertising Manager Kevin Longstreet to have a high level of faith in economic research, expecting “proof,” something possible Associate Publisher Garrett Bewkes Assistant to the Publisher Brooke Rogers in physics, not in economics. The scholarly studies I cite are as solid as any in economic Director of Revenue Erik Netcher research. If he thinks we should wait for incontrovertible proof before acting, where is PUBLISHERCHAIRMAN the proof that most government action is harmful? Was the federal government “stupid” Jack Fowler John Hillen when it supported research that led to the Internet, GPS, magnetic-resonance imaging, FOUNDER William F. Buckley Jr. etc.? While Donald Trump won the primary and the general election for a variety of reasons, one appears to be that he is a pragmatic conservative, not an ideological one who PATRONSANDBENEFACTORS Robert Agostinelli holds that all government is bad. I fear that Mr. Krill worries so much about the govern- Dale Brott ment’s doing something wrong that he would ensure that it is prevented from doing Mr. and Mrs. Michael Conway Mark and Mary Davis good. Instead of railing against government’s doing anything at all, conservatives should Virginia James make sure limited government bureaucracies and programs are designed and executed Christopher M. Lantrip Brian and Deborah Murdock well. Or do they have scholarly proof that this is impossible? Mr. & Mrs. Richard Spencer Mr. & Mrs. L. Stanton Towne Peter J. Travers Letters may be sub mitted by e-mail to [email protected].

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n So there were no left-wing Puerto Rican transsexual terror- ists in federal prison? See page 14.

n Representative John Lewis (D., Ga.) announced that he would skip Donald Trump’s inauguration: “I don’t see this president- elect as a legitimate president. . . . You cannot be at home with something that you feel that is wrong.” Trump in return urged Lewis to “spend more time on fixing and helping his district,” which is in fact the primary duty of local authorities, not con- gressmen (federalism, and all that). The instinct to push back is entirely justified, however. You would think, from news reports, that Lewis’s first names are “Civil Rights Icon.” So he was, beaten on the voting-rights march in Selma. May he always be honored. But he has had a half-century career of par- tisan politics since then, in the arena with everyone else. Dwight Eisenhower’s heroic war record did not immunize him from criticism, nor did JFK’s. John Lewis deserves to be judged on the content of his characterizations.

n Rex Tillerson, President Trump’s pick for secretary of state, was chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil for a decade. Presiding over a business with worldwide operations gave him first-hand knowledge of the world he would be dealing with, supporters of his nomination argued. It was not much on display during Tillerson’s confirmation hearings. Over and over again, he pleaded a lack of specific knowledge, whether the subject was climate change, a registry of Mus - lims, or Russian bombing of Aleppo (shades of Gary John - son). One of his demurrals, when he denied knowing whether Exxon had lobbied against sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Crimea, was simply incredible. He did are 1 and 7 percent. The Times’s editorial spin on this impres- acknowledge that American and Russian “value systems are sive record: Detroit’s “charter schools often perform no bet- starkly different.” With the president himself a newcomer to ter than traditional schools, and sometimes worse.” The foreign af fairs, the counsel of the State Department will be Times seems to believe that its readers, at least, have to be all the more important. If it doesn’t come from the secre- carefully taught. tary, then it will bubble up from the career personnel—also known as the swamp. n Cory Booker is running for president. That’s the only way to interpret the New Jersey senator’s melodramatic testimony n It is a close contest—Andy Puzder and Scott Pruitt are in against Jeff Sessions, Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney the running—but Betsy DeVos seems to be the Trump nomi- general, at Sessions’s confirmation hearing. Booker made an nee who has inspired the most unhinged reactions from liber- impassioned plea for the incoming attorney general to “bring als. Lawrence Krauss, writing in The New Yorker, sees hope and healing to our country”—a legal requirement of DeVos’s belief that God had something to do with the origin which Edmund Randolph and his successors were surely of man as evidence that she plans to destroy science educa- unaware—and the spectacle was particularly galling given tion if confirmed as secretary of education. But the New York Booker’s comment in February 2016 that he was “blessed Times has been the most active in distorting DeVos’s record. and honored” to partner with Sessions to award the Con - A particular refrain at the Times has been that DeVos, a gressional Gold Medal to participants in the 1965 Selma Michigander, protected charter schools from regulation in civil-rights marches. Booker has never struggled to picture Detroit and thus contributed to their poor performance. Yet a himself in higher office. But unless he can learn the differ- study found that 47 percent of the charter schools significantly ence between standing on principle and grandstanding, his outperform traditional public schools on reading, as 49 per- presidential aspirations are as fantastical as his imaginary ROMAN GENN cent do on math; the figures for significant underperformance friend T-Bone.

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n Tim Scott, the Republican junior senator from South Ca r o li- about the business? Democrats will continue to make an na, demonstrated grace under Twitter. When user “Simone” issue of conflicts, real or imagined. A much cleaner and accused Scott, who has said he will vote to confirm Sessions, politically sound solution would have been to hand the com- and William Smith, a longtime aide to Sessions who is also pany over to a well-respected, independent trustee for the black, of being “house niggas,” Scott tweeted back a one-word next four to eight years. But it’s a solid step in the right riposte: “Senate.” Amid the avalanche of opprobrium, Simone direction and, given Trump’s strong attachment to his busi- deleted her tweet and then her Twitter account. A little later, ness and his reliance on his family, probably the best that Scott tweeted, “Disagree without being disagreeable.” We could be hoped for. couldn’t agree with you more, senator. n Trump has picked his 36-year-old son-in-law, Jared Kush - n CNN mentioned it, BuzzFeed printed it: a dossier of ru - ner, to broker a Middle East peace deal. “Jared is such a good mors that has been floating around Washington for months, lad,” Trump told Bild, “he will secure an Israel deal which no alleging Trump-campaign ties to Russia. There was even a re - one else has managed to get.” Kushner, a serious Orthodox port of after-hours activities in a Moscow hotel that made Jew, is a serious supporter of Israel—a welcome change from JFK and Judith Exner look savory by comparison. A former the last days of the Obama administration. He is also credited British spook compiled the stuff as oppo research for with blocking several potentially ill-advised Trump appoint- Trump’s GOP rivals, then for the Clinton campaign. Until ments (e.g., of Chris Christie to anything). On the other hand, January, no news organization had bit, because of the dos - he has slight personal experience of the Mid dle East and none sier’s evident flimsiness. Trump blamed the leak on the of diplomacy. It might not matter, since a deal between Israel American intelligence community and asked, “Are we living and the Palestinians is a perennial will-o’-the-wisp. Dennis in Nazi Germany?” (Short answer: No.) If real spadework Ross, an old Middle East hand, gave Kush ner a measured might uncover secret Trump–Russia connections, the shabbi- thumbs-up: “People I know who know him describe him . . . ness of the dossier has undermined it. What is most troubling as someone who will clearly learn what he needs to learn and If real spadework might uncover secret Trump–Russia connections, the shabbiness of the dossier has undermined it.

about Trump and Russia remains his not-at-all-secret admira- will approach things thoughtfully.” To them that have no tion for Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile Journalism 101 teaches might he increaseth strength; here’s hoping. journalists not to run with unbacked charges. Time, it seems, for a refresher. n The Justice Department’s inspector general announced an investigation of FBI director James Comey’s handling of the n Donald Trump is still getting NATO mostly wrong. In a Clinton e-mail case. The action, coming a week before Pres - recent interview, he was right to call out NATO allies for fail- i dent Trump’s inauguration, is transparently an attempt to ing to meet their defense-spending obligations, and it is reas- jam the new administration and conveniently plays into suring that he said it is “very important” to him. Yet he also Democratic arguments that the election was thrown to Trump reiterated his view that NATO is “obsolete” because it is not by Putin and Comey. If the question is whether the FBI direc- “taking care of terror.” NATO has in truth been fighting ter- tor violated internal guidelines by repeatedly discussing the ror since the September 11 attacks. It invoked Article 5— case publicly, the answer is Yes, a thousand times yes. He was which holds that an attack on one member state is an attack put in an awkward position, though, as soon as Democrats against all—on September 12, 2001, and its troops are still nominated a candidate who was under FBI investigation, and in Afghanistan today. Moreover, with the rise in Russian especially after Attorney General Lo ret ta Lynch cast a pall of aggression, NATO is growing more relevant, not less. Shortly doubt over the proceedings by secretly meeting with Bill after the end of the Cold War, there were those who believed Clinton. At this point, Comey has lost the trust of nearly that perhaps the threat of great-power conflict was over. They everyone in Washington and undermined the credibility of were wrong, and unless we want to increase the risk of war. the Bureau. Trump may not want to dismiss him immediately we should continue to rely on NATO’s proven strength. for fear of validating the Demo crat ic narrative about the elections—in which case he should wait a decent interval. n Donald Trump announced an arrangement to avoid business conflicts as president. His sons will run his company and n Barack Obama is nothing if not consistent. He is lenient won’t talk to him about it. There will be no new foreign deals, with American enemies foreign and domestic. His decision to and profits from foreign governments’ taking rooms at the commute the remainder of Bradley (Chelsea) Manning’s jail Trump hotel in Washington, D.C., will be donated to the U.S. term, from 35 years to essentially time served, sends the mes- Treasury, in a gesture to those who charge (dubiously) that sage that soldiers can betray their nation yet still expect to such business would violate the Constitution’s emoluments receive compassion from their government, so long as they’re clause. The ar rangement is hardly perfect and has been “whistleblowing” o n an unpopular war. And make no mistake, slammed by ethics experts—who’s to police, for instance, Manning betrayed his nation. He is responsible for one of the whether Trump’s sons are really keeping him in the dark largest security breaches in American military history, placing

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American allies in immediate danger, exposing sensitive diplo- who made it to land. Instead, we would send them back, and matic secrets, and revealing American tactics to our most the Cuban government would receive them (as the migrants, vicious enemies. Osama bin Laden himself sought and re ceived or would-be migrants, well know). We will also be ending information from Manning’s document dump. In such a circum- our special program for Cuban doctors who are sent abroad. stance, Manning’s commutation was worse than foolish. It was When they defected to us, we put their visa applications on a unjust, and it broke faith with America’s warriors. The price paid fast track. No more. Obama himself stated that the defection for betrayal proved to be very low. of doctors “risks harming the Cuban people.” His aide Ben Rhodes made a similar comment about ordinary Cubans who n President Obama made an announcement with the Cuban try to flee: “It’s important that Cuba continue to have a dictatorship. In a joint statement, they said that the United young, dynamic population that are agents of change.” The States would be ending its “wet foot, dry foot” policy. No Obama administration’s concern for the Cuban people was more would the U.S. give special consideration to Cubans touching indeed. A Pro-Growth Tax Reform

AX reform will be front and center this year. There are Indeed, 31 out of 35 developed countries have a rate T enough supply-siders in power that it seems certain higher than 10. Twenty-two out of 35 have a rate greater that tax rates will go down. But if Republicans want than or equal to 20. to supercharge the economy, they should look not just at As policymakers consider ways to reform our tax code, tax rates, but also at the things we choose to tax in the first it will be natural for them to consider ways to move toward place and the best practices around the world. this international norm. One proposal already in the books The goal of the best tax policy is to raise enough rev- is the House Blueprint plan, which would impose a “busi- enue to pay government ’s bills while changing behavior ness cash flow” tax that is quite similar to a VAT. Such a tax as little as possible. The economy suffers when people would, as can be seen in the chart, put us in the middle of make decisions based not on the pure pluses and minus- the pack in terms of tax rates and move the tax base es of their own situation but rather on the incentives pro- toward the international norm. vided by government policy. Economists who have run It is too soon to tell whether this plan will survive the different types of tax policy through their models agree legislative process, and there are certainly numerous that the most efficient tax is on consumption. If you tax other ways to accomplish moving our tax system toward business profits, businesses can move to Ireland. If you a more rational base. Let us hope that the architects of tax the consumption of Americans, they can’t move their tax reform keep in mind how out of step we are with global consumption to Ireland. best practices. The consumption tax also stimulates growth through —KEVIN A. HASSETT the “tax avoidance” behavior that it does induce. If you don’t like the tax on consumption, then your best avoidance strategy is to save rather than consume. If you pur- OECD 2016 VAT Rates sue this strategy for a few years, you might even become wealthy, and, meanwhile, the bank that has your money 18

will lend it to businesses that create jobs. If we want to 16 produce more output in the future, we need to have more inputs in the future. Postponed consumption is future 14 capital and future production. 12 This simple lesson from optimal-tax theory has been 10 digested by almost every country on earth, except the 8

U.S. Indeed, 34 out of the 35 OECD countries have con- Number of Countries

sumption taxes in the form of a goods-and-services tax 6 (GST) or a value-added tax (VAT). Using data from the 4 OECD Tax Database, the graph below shows the distribution of VAT tax rates. Most OECD countries have a VAT 2

rate around 20 percent, with a few outliers on both sides 0 0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26+ of the distribution. Other than the U.S., the lowest VAT in the developed world is in Canada, which has a VAT of 5 OECD United States House Plan United States Now VAT Percent percent. The next-lowest tax after Ca nada’s is 8 percent.

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n Senator Bob Casey (D., Pa.) has run for office as a pro-life n Embracing one of the Democrats’ most dearly held health- Democrat. Yet his voting record is barely distinguishable from care policies, Trump said he wants the government to begin those of his pro-abortion colleagues. He has, for example, directly negotiating pharmaceutical prices with drug compa- backed legisla tion to weaken conscience protections for pro- nies. The reason drug prices are so high, he says, is the baleful lifers. And he has also voted with them on subsidies for influence of pharmaceutical lobbyists, and he intends to over- Planned Parenthood, most recently tweeting that he “stands rule them. As with most health-care questions, the reality is a with” the organization. There are sophistical arguments for little more complicated. Current law does forbid direct negoti- continuing to send tax dollars to it. But to “stand with” the ation of prices of drugs purchased under federal programs, on group that does more abortions than any other in the country? the theory that such “negotiation” would not be negotiation at His position is wrong, his self-description is dishonest, and all but simple federal price-fixing by fiat. As it stands, compa- Republicans should make these facts plain when he is up for nies already are obliged to charge Medicaid the lowest price reelection next year. they charge on the consumer market, which is significant in that drug companies, like most health-care providers, engage n John F. Kelly is a retired Marine Corps general. He enlisted in a great deal of “price discrimination,” meaning that charity in 1970. He has seen a lot of war. His son Robert was killed in clinics and emergency rooms providing services for the desti- Afghanistan. Donald Trump nominated the general to be the tute do not pay the same price that clients in expensive private clinics do—another way in which high-income consumers subsidize those of more modest means. And there is a great deal of price negotiation and competition in programs such as Medicare Part D. Drug prices are high for many reasons: FDA compliance is one, and lack of direct consumer competition is another—generations of health-care “reforms” have ensured that consumers pay only about one-fifth of their prescription costs, producing the familiar third-party-payer effect. What’s needed isn’t federal price-fixing but more robust competition—something that congressional reformers might keep in mind even if President Trump does not.

n Hollywood has a lot to answer for. For years, American cinemagoers have been led to believe that it is possible to secretary of homeland security. Before his confirmation hear- “silence” a firearm simply by attaching a suppressor to the ing, someone suggested to him that he wear an American-flag end of its barrel. When James Bond wants to kill somebody lapel pin. Kelly gave an answer for the ages: “I am an without being noticed, he adds a little tube to his Walther American flag.” and—hey presto!—his shots are undetectable to all but those in the same room. The truth, however, is dramatically differ- n It is a sort of monetary policy, we suppose: When the pol- ent. In the real world, “silencers” are actually “suppressors,” itics call for it, Paul Krugman can turn on a dime and make and they don’t eliminate the sound of a gunshot so much as change. On October 23, believing that the next president of slightly reduce it—an alteration that is useless to those who these United States would be Hillary Rodham Clinton, the hope to kill without being noticed, but extremely useful for Nobel economics laureate declared that “the debt scolds frequent shooters who want to protect their hearing. Which is should be ignored” and that Clinton should offer an economic why it is so silly that, since 1934, it has been both expensive program based on “years of deficit-financed infrastructure (there is a $200 tax per device) and difficult (the federal spending.” A mere 78 days later, Krugman wrote a column background check takes almost a year) for Americans to get headlined “Deficits matter again,” and the foe of deficit hold of suppressors, and why, after almost 82 years, Congress scolds had undergone a metamorphosis, waking to find him- has finally taken up the cause of reform. There has never self a deficit scold. What changed? Krugman says that, with been a good reason for what is essentially a safety device to the economy coming back around to something like full be so heavily and expensively regulated. But explaining the employment and some wage growth detectable in the middle virtues of change to a public that grew up on spy movies is income ranges, it is time to batten down the fiscal hatches. going to be tough. But whatever one makes of the job-market numbers, they did not change radically in that 78-day period. What changed was n When California decided to build a high-speed bullet train that the election turned out differently from what Krugman connecting L.A. and San Francisco, environmental activists,

AP IMAGES (and many others) expected, and Democrats and their media labor unions, and the Obama administration cheered. High- / DPA

/ minions will pick up any handy cudgel with which to beat speed rail was the future, it would save the environment, and President Trump. The new president, alas, has pronounced him- the project was shovel-ready. But a confidential federal ALLIANCE - self very much interested in “years of deficit-financed infra- analysis obtained by the Los Angeles Times warns that the structure spending,” and we fear he may be inclined to take first leg of the project—118 miles in California’s Central PICTURE / more of Krugman’s advice—at least the advice Krugman Valley, far from the population centers of L.A. and the Bay offered Mrs. Clinton—than we’d like him to. Yes, deficits mat- area—will cost 50 percent more than anticipated and finish RON SACHS ter now. They mattered before, too. seven years behind schedule. Uh-oh. The whole project was

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promised to run only $70 billion, with state and federal taxpay- were the only one who protected civilization from aggression ers sharing the burden. But with costs of construction through that came from the east.” The Third Armored Brigade is the the farmland around Bakersfield ballooning to $10 billion, first Western force to be deployed continuously on NATO’s how much money will need to be shoveled into the boondoggle border with Russia. NATO forces are also due to be stationed when work moves to the suburbs and cities along the coast? in other countries bordering Russia. Vladimir Putin’s Many experts caution that the bullet train could end up costing spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, lost no time weighing in: “These more than $100 billion. With red tape, environmental-impact actions threaten our interests, our security.” As he put it, “the studies, pricey litigation, and expensive union labor as far as third party” building up its military presence near Russian the eye can see, this might be one train the taxpayers will borders “is not even a European state.” Resolving policy wish they hadn’t caught. toward Russia, the Trump administration will discover that its hand has been forced, or that here’s some extra leverage n The House Select Panel on Infant Lives recently released for that proposed deal with Putin. its final report, detailing in 418 pages the findings of its 16- month investigation into the fetal-tissue-trafficking industry. n India’s constitution protects religious freedom, but the coun- Congress formed the bipartisan panel in the fall of 2015 after try’s Hindu-nationalist government apparently does not: Under the Center for Medical Progress released a series of under- the authority of something called the Foreign Contribution cover videos showing Planned Parenthood executives and Regulation Act, it has shut down more than two dozen groups medical professionals discussing the harvesting and pricing whose work is deemed not in the “national interest.” One of of the organs of aborted babies. After a lengthy examination them is Compassion International, a Christian relief organiza- of the organizations implicated in the videos, the panel has tion that says it currently supports 145,000 impoverished Indian concluded that many of them did, in fact, profit from selling children with meals, tutoring, and more. This is missionary the tissue of aborted babies. The panel has also issued 15 work, so there’s a religious dimension to the charity—and appar- criminal and regulatory referrals, directing federal, state, and ently New Delhi wants to prevent India’s 29 million Christians, local law-enforcement agencies to further investigate Planned who make up less than 3 percent of the population, from posing Parenthood, other abortion clinics, the tissue-procurement any kind of demographic threat to the nation’s Hindu population organizations that partnered with them to sell baby parts, and of nearly 1 billion. “I believe the State De part ment should take some of the universities that purchased those parts from notice,” said Senator Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) on January 11, them. This would be a big story, if the press had not decided during Rex Tillerson’s confirmation hear ings. It did during the that it isn’t. Obama years—John Kerry lodged a complaint in September— and it should continue to do so in the Trump years.

n Philadelphia mayor Jim Kenney, a Democrat, is angry n According to a German court, three German Palestinians who that the price of soda has risen in his city. He blames local torched a synagogue in Wuppertal in July 2014 did so to draw businesses for passing on to consumers the cost of a new “attention to the Gaza conflict,” not because they were anti- soda tax that he championed. Retailers are “gouging their Semitic. The three culprits, who tossed Molotov cocktails into own customers,” he told a local radio station in January. the house of worship, were given suspended sentences on the Kenney apparently thinks sandwich shops and grocery grounds that their firebombs were an ill-considered form of stores, which now must pay a 1.5-cents-per-ounce tax on political protest. The original Wuppertal synagogue was torched soda and other sugary beverages at the wholesale level, by Nazis in 1938 as part of Kristallnacht. Among its other evils, should eat the cost. He blames soda consumers, too: “It’s not anti-Semitism is drearily repetitive. an elixir of life that you need to drink every day n In an attack that was broadcast live on Facebook and may or you will die, so if have lasted four or five hours, according to Chicago police, you don’t want to buy two young men beat another young man, kicke d him, made it, don’t buy it.” It him drink toilet water, and cut his scalp. They had tied his seems that Kenney wrists and taped his mouth shut. A police detective described neither grasps the the victim as being of “diminished mental capacity.” The basic laws of econom- police superintendent denounced the actions as “reprehensi- ics nor cares about ble” and affirmed that, “along with racism,” they have “no their effects. place in the city of Chicago—or anywhere, for that matter— against anyone, regardless of their r ace, gender, state of mental health, or any other identifying factor.” The attackers were black and the victim white; the perpetrators mixed their vio- n It was snowing when the Third Armored Brigade Combat lence up with a political rant against President Trump. If you Team, about 1,000 strong, crossed in convoy from Germany are tempted to let those political and racial details matter more into western Poland. At an open-air and temperature-testing to you than the depravity of the crime that the superintendent AP PHOTO

welcome ceremony in the small town of Zagan, the band appropriately characterized, take his words to heart. / played, and Antoni Macierewicz, the Polish minister of defense, inspected the troops and told them, “We have waited n God’s preferred pronouns are masculine, at least in the for you for a very long time . . . sometimes feeling that we scriptures of the Abrahamic religions, which account for half MATT ROURKE

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of the world’s population. But worry not. For those who seek had to be accepted under the U.S. Coinage Act of 1965—to “inclusive language, especially in relation to the Divine,” pay the vehicle tax. One hopes that counting pennies late into Vanderbilt Divinity School offers it—insists on it, even, as it the night widened the DMV’s perspective on the agony of explains in its catalogue, where the word “gender” occurs 75 unnecessary inconvenience. times. Over in Durham, Duke’s div school prescribes “gender- neutral” language, illustrated by awkward examples (“God n The Greatest Show on Earth had a good run. Feld Enter - knew Godself to be great”). The word “neutral” is cognate tainment, the producer of Ringling Bros. Barnum & Bailey with “neuter,” a gender that does not exist in the Hebrew of Circus, announced that the big top will come down for good in the Old Testament or in the Arabic of the Koran. It does exist May, 146 years and a month after the storied enterprise was in the Greek of the New Testament, whose authors pass over officially launched. Animal-welfare activists had prevailed on it in favor of proclaiming that God is both our father and his Feld to phase out the use of elephants, the circus’s mascots, and son. Where theology shades into philosophy and the divine is ticket sales subsequently plummeted, but they had already been considered as the ground of being, fine—let it be “it,” the de clin ing. For sheer spectacle, Jumbo could no longer complete English pronoun that comes naturally in that context. The with special effects on the Jumbotron. The cost of putting on the God of revelation, however, is unequivocally masculine. He whole big performance live was out of proportion to what won’t be bound by the speech rules of academics who “imagine people were willing to pay to see it. A great tradition will soon a vain thing,” and so they rage (Ps. 2:1). pass, but not from our cultural history, which it brightens. Farewell, circus. Con gra tu la tions on a job well done. n We live in a republic, where political office is bigger than the men and women who occupy it for a time and then exit, to n Nat Hentoff made his bones as a jazz critic, covering the make room for their successors. When Americans forget that gamut from Artie Shaw to Ornette Coleman. He was an early crucial fact about their country, they lose perspective, imagin- and longtime contributor to the Village Voice, beginning with ing that the outcome of an election is a period, not a parenthe- jazz and then branching out to civil liberties, on which he was sis. So give credit to the marching band of Talladega, a an absolutist. In the 1970s, James P. Mc Fad den, associate historically black college in Alabama, for rising above the par- publisher of NR and founder of The Human Life Review, tisan uproar and accepting the invitation to perform at President asked Hentoff for permission to reprint an article on the Trump’s inauguration. Presumably not all members voted for rights of the disabled. If the disabled, why not the un born? the new president. It is plausible that most did not. Denuncia - McFadden suggested. So began Hentoff’s decades-long com- tions from alumni and others poured in, but so did donations mitment to the pro-life cause, which he upheld with all his from those who were heartened by the band’s patriotic princi- prickly New York Jewish atheist tenacity. He befriended ples. A band member circulated a peti- To some, sunglasses are a fashion accessory… tion, an affirmation that “this parade is not about politics” or a “political party.” The peaceful transition of power is But When Driving, worth honoring, and so is the Talladega marching band. These Sunglasses

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Car di nal O’Connor and Senator Bob Casey Sr. and never Born into a modest family of farmers, he was reputed to have allowed his roots on the left to abate his zeal. “There stood a become the richest man in the country. Power mattered to man with his sword drawn, and his face all over with blood. him as much as money. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini picked Then said Mr. Great-Heart, Who art thou? The man made him out and patronized him. President of Iran from 1989 to answer, saying, I am one whose name is Valiant-for-truth. I 1997, he made sure afterwards to be in a position to promote am a pilgrim.” Dead at 91. R.I.P. friends and to break enemies—all of which brought him max- imum power and profit. A hardliner among hardliners, a mod- n “I must admit that I enjoy being in a war,” said Clare Hol - erate among moderates, anti-American in speech but lingworth on the eve of her 100th birthday in 2011. Seven probably not in spirit, he was deceptive, a man of many decades earlier, she had been present at the outbreak of the resources, superficially genial but ultimately indecipherable. Second World War. In the ultimate journalistic scoop, she He has died, aged 82. R.I.P. broke the news. Driving alone on the border of Germany and Poland in late August 1939, she spied troops and tanks amass- THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ing and telephoned her editor back in London. From then on, Hope and Worry she was on the front li nes—in Algeria, Palestine, Greece, the Balkans, Vietnam. The more dangerous, the better, in her view: OST of our hopes for the dawning Trump administra- That was where the stories were. The scoops continued to tion are the same ones we would have for any new come. Hol ling worth was the first to work out that Kim Philby, M Republican president. the Soviet spy, was a double agent who had defected to President Trump has said that he will nominate conserva- Moscow. She reluctantly submitted to retirement when her tives to the Supreme Court. We hope he makes good on that eyesight began to fail. Dead at 105. R.I.P. promise and fights hard for confirmation of a justice who will protect religious liberty, honor the individual right to own n A native of St. Croix who moved to New York City as a boy, guns, allow democratic resolutions of abortion policy, and oth- Roy Innis never lost his slight Caribbean lilt—and as leader of erwise respect the Constitution that exists instead of the one of the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE), he spoke a different law professors’ imagining. language from the mainstream civil-rights movement, always He says he will sign legislation to repeal Obamacare and re - dissenting from its orthodoxies. In the 1960s, this took the form place it with a new system that retains protections for sick of black nationalism. By the 1970s, Innis was a conservative Democrat who endorsed Republican candidates, op posed racial preferences and forced busing, and presented himself as an alternative to the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Outspoken and theatrical, he once shoved Sharpton to the floor during a televised debate. On another show, he sparred with white supremacists. He lost two sons to gun violence. Rather than em - bracing gun control, he joined the National Rifle Association and served on its board, believing that law-abiding black families should enjoy the right to arm themselves against criminals. Over time, CORE’s influence faded, but never the passion of the man who led it. Dead at 82, from Parkinson’s disease. R.I.P.

n Because he wrote The Exorcist—both the 1971 novel and the screenplay for the 1973 movie—William Peter Blatty gained a reputation as an author of horror fiction. He is better understood as a Catholic writer who used the tools of the horror genre to advance the tenets of his faith. The film became a sensation, in large measure for its sensationalism: Its portrayal of a girl’s demonic possession made it one of the most shock- ing and influential movies of its time. Beneath the flamboy- ance, however, was a simple message about the wickedness of despair and the power of belief. Readers of the novel tended to get the point, though it was lost on enough moviegoers that Blatty worked to restore deleted scenes in later releases. “I don’t want them to think the devil won,” he once explained. He wrote several other books, including comic novels, a sequel to The Exorcist, and Finding Peter, a 2015 work of nonfiction about life after death. His own death, at least in this world, came on January 12 at the age of 89. R.I.P.

n Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was a master of the black arts Donald Trump speaks at a press conference in Trump Tower, New York City, SIPA VIA APon IMAGES which careers depend in the Islamic Republic of Iran. January 11, 2017.

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peo ple and allows everyone to have access to health insur- of Western defense too often shades into an indifference to the

ance. It’s the right goal, but he will have to navigate the shoals continued existence of the alliance. His desire for friendly rela-

of Capitol Hill to reach it. tions with Russia also unnerves those allies who see all too

We will cheer him on, as well, if he pursues the rebuilding of clearly its thuggish and expansionist nature.

our defenses and the retrenchment of the federal role in primary Trump’s rhetoric on trade never acknowledges the many

education. If his Education Department also gets out of the American employers and manufacturers whose work depends

business of policing speech on campus, it will be a fitting com- on imported inputs. If his policies reflect the same blind spot,

plement to the rest of his agenda. his toughness on foreign competition will be tough on Ameri-

In one important area, Trump might do better than another can workers too.

Republican president would have. He campaigned on control- Then, finally, there is the matter of Trump’s self-control, his

ling illegal immigration and running a legal-immigration pol- maturity, and his willingness to attend to details. Will he speak

icy that benefits American workers. He seems to understand mindful of the impact of his words on our friends and foes

that he has to deliver on enforcement at the border and in the abroad? Will he do what he can to keep government policy

workplace. But Republicans in Congress, some of Trump’s attuned to the national interest rather than to the financial inter-

appointees, and perhaps even Trump himself do not seem to ests of the Trump family? Will the new administration be run

believe that legislation to reduce our overall intake of legal with basic competence? Will he show more respect for the lim-

immigrants, and especially of low-skilled ones, is a priority. It its on presidential power than Obama did? Trump’s behavior

should be. during the transition has allayed many of his supporters’ ideo-

In other areas, the new president brings with him dangers. logical concerns about him, but he has done little to dispel

He is right to want to reform taxes and especially to make these deeper doubts.

them less of a barrier to investment in the United States. But The press is playing up Trump’s unpopularity compared

his campaign plans on taxes were reckless—cutting taxes with his predeces sors at the start of their terms. But that deeply, especially on high earners, without offsetting spend- unpopularity is an opportunity for Trump, and for Republi - ing cuts. Many Republicans share that failing, but it is worse cans. He has made inroads among some voters who do not usu- for Trump given that he is uninterested, at best, in reforming ally back Republicans. At the same time, he has scared away entitlements and given that his supporters are less affluent some voters who remain open to backing Republicans. He has than those of most Republicans. amazed the world. If he proves the naysayers wrong again, he Other worries about Trump are distinctive to the man. His can turn his already stunning political accomplishments into reasonable desire for our allies to bear more of the fiscal burden lasting ones. :: : :: :: : :: :

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includes its unpopular provision fining people for not buying insurance: to prod healthy people to get covered. Take away the fines but not the regulation, and insurance markets could unravel. In the weeks following the election, when they were surprised that their party had won unified control of the government and would have to enact health-care legislation, Republican congressional leaders came up with a strategy that attempted to take account of the first five conditions. That strategy came to be known as “repeal and delay.” Early in 2017, Republicans would pass a bill under the reconciliation rules to repeal the tax and spending provisions of Obamacare but would provide that the repeal take full effect a few years from now. In the interim, they would pass legislation replacing Obamacare. If Republicans stick together, they can execute the first part of this strategy without any Democratic votes and without reaching an agreement among them- A Riskyi k Obamacareb Strategy selves on a replacement. They could then Republicans are neglecting ‘replace’ tell conservatives that Obamacare is dead, or at least that it has been given a BY RAMESH PONNURU death sentence, and tell voters in general that a replacement is coming. Some Re - OR nearly seven years, Repub - Senate, but only, they think, if that legis- publi cans even say that Democrats will licans have been saying that they lation exclusively concerns taxes and work with them on the second bill (re - F would repeal and replace Obama - spending rather than regulations. Four: placement) once the first one (partial care as soon as they had the power The Democrats are nearly uniform in their repeal) has been enacted. to do it. Now they have the White House opposition to doing anything to Obama - Many Republicans are, however, un - and majorities in both houses of Congress, care other than tweaking or spending easy about this strategy. Republicans but appear not to have any viable strate- more money on it. who want a replacement that ensures that gy for making good on that promise. Five: Republicans do not all agree on most of Obamacare’s beneficiaries have The elusiveness of that strategy follows what “replacement” should look like. access to insurance fear that some of their from the many constraints under which The most worked-out Republican plans Republican colleagues will call it a day Republicans are operating. Here are six. would make it possible for nearly every- once they have crippled Obamacare. They One: A lot of people who voted for Repub - one to buy catastrophic-insurance poli- think Democrats will be more eager to licans want to see the end of Obamacare, cies but vastly reduce the federal role in blame them for taking away people’s cov- for both philosophical and practical rea- regulating health insurance. Some Re- erage than to work with them on restoring sons. Two: A lot of them—sometimes the publicans, though, would prefer to return it—and think that Democrats will be suc- same people—are nervous about losing government policy to what it was before cessful in blaming them, since they will in their health coverage if it goes. Most Obamacare, or to pursue a different free- fact have passed a law taking it away. people also like important elements of market policy, even if those alternatives One serious drawback of the strategy is Obamacare, such as its ban on insurer led to a loss of coverage for 10 to 20 mil- that it does not account for the interrelat- discrimination against people with preex- lion Americans. edness of Obamacare’s provisions (our isting conditions and its requirement that Six: Obamacare’s provisions are inter- sixth fact above). The partial-repeal bill adults under age 26 be allowed to get cov- related in a way that makes piecemeal would abolish the fine for people who go erage through their parents’ plans. changes perilous. Because the law requires without insurance, and might even do Three: Senate rules are generally insurers to sell the same policies at the that effective immediately. But it would thought to expose any legislation that same prices to the sick and the healthy leave in place Obamacare’s protection modifies or abolishes Obamacare’s regu- alike—one of its popular elements—it for people with preexisting conditions, lations to filibuster—which means that creates an incentive for healthy people to both because it is popular and because it any 41 of the chamber’s 48 Democrats forgo insurance. They can wait until they is a regulation that they think cannot be could block that legislation. Republicans are sick to buy it. But health-insurance touched under reconciliation rules. can use the “budget reconciliation” rules markets cannot work if only sick people Obamacare’s exchanges have already ROMAN GENN to pass legislation with 51 votes in the buy coverage. That’s why Obamacare also been attracting a relatively sick segment

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of the population: Many healthy people The strategy could not be better de - regulation of health insurance and its cen- are paying the fine instead of buying signed to maximize disruption in health tralization of regulation in Washington, insurance. That’s why many insurers markets. Yet public hostility to such dis- D.C. The way Obamacare regulates insur- have been booking losses and leaving the ruption is the central fact in the politics ers’ treatment of people with preexisting exchanges. If the fines are abolished, even of health care. It is the main reason the conditions, the benefits they have to offer, more healthy people will decide to forgo Clintons’ health-care plan crashed and and the difference between what they can health insurance until they get sick. The burned in the 1990s: Remember those ads charge the young and the old have raised result could be higher premiums, more saying it threatened everything viewers premiums and deductibles, resulted in insurers dropping out, and even fewer valued in their health care? It is the reason insurance policies that are not attractive to customers. Ending the subsidies for peo- that Barack Obama spent $44 million sav- the young and healthy, and so made the ple buying insurance on the exchanges by aging John McCain for threatening to tax exchanges shaky at best in much of the a date certain, as the partial-repeal bill employer-provided health insurance in country even with the help of the individ- would do, would make insurers even 2008. It is the reason that one of President ual mandate. more inclined to leave the exchanges. Obama’s main talking points in selling Republicans already have a set of leg- People buying individual health poli- Obamacare was that it would let people islative ideas (if not yet actual legisla- cies outside the exchanges could be keep their plans if they liked them. It is tion) that builds on that insight. The affected, too. Their premiums might also the reason that the cancellation of many main Republican alternative to Obama - increase as healthy people decide they plans as a result of Obamacare’s regula- care—advanced in different forms by don’t need health insurance. tions became the biggest political prob- Senators Bill Cassidy, Orrin Hatch, If partial repeal has these effects, lem his administration faced on health Richard Burr, and Marco Rubio, by the Democrats will probably try to score care since the law passed. And it is the House Republicans, and by Tom Price, political points by assailing the Repub - reason Speaker of the House Paul Ryan Trump’s nominee to be secretary of health licans for having wrecked Obamacare keeps saying that Republicans will see to and human services—is to create a much without replacing it, and to demand that it that we make a “stable transition” from less regulated market. Republicans restore the law’s repealed Obamacare to a better system. In the ideal form of this legislation, peo- components rather than work with A better Republican strategy would be ple who do not have coverage through them on a replacement. The plan could desi gned around Ryan’s stated goal. It their employers would get a tax credit that amount to repealing in haste and repent- would begin with the understanding that allowed them to purchase at least cata- ing at leisure. Obamacare’s worst features are its over- strophic coverage. They could choose to

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buy more-extensive coverage if they sup- decades. But federal subsidies would no plemented the credit out of their own longer come with as heavy a thumb on pockets. Their coverage would need to the scale for one form of insurance over satisfy only two conditions to qualify for another. Compared with the policies of Let Us Now the tax credit: It met their own state’s reg- the last several decades, federal policy ulatory standards, and people on the would shift toward facilitating rather Praise insurance rolls would be able to renew than seeking to shape the decisions of their policies or buy comparable policies market participants. Homemakers if they got sick. On the left, the main criticism of this Attempts to make them get jobs That second requirement, common to kind of Obamacare replacement would be are wrongheaded many Republican plans, would offer real that catastrophic coverage is inferior to protection for people with preexisting comprehensive coverage. Whether it’s BY ROBERT STEIN conditions. Those already covered by worth paying extra for more-extensive Obamacare—that is, who enrolled in the coverage, though, is a trade-off best left to RESIDENT TRUMP is likely to pur- expanded version of Medicaid or bought individuals and families. Some evidence sue broad changes in economic exchange policies—would be able to stay suggests that the main value of insurance P policy, as well he should. Since covered. The combined effect of the regu- is that it protects people from major finan- the start of the economic recov- lation and the tax credit would make their cial setbacks if they get sick. ery in mid 2009, the U.S. economy has coverage affordable. But healthy people A legislative strategy designed to been growing at a tepid average annual would not be able to game the system by advance this kind of replacement would rate of 2.1 percent. By contrast, at a sim- waiting until they got sick to buy cover- not defer action on Obamacare’s regula- ilar point in the expansions following the age; the regulation would be an incentive tions. Nor would it abolish its tax credits in recessions of 1981–82 and 1990–91, the for them to get covered while they’re well. one bill only to create new ones later. economy had grown at average annual rates of 4.5 and 3.6 percent. The primary focus of President Trump’s Even before Obamacare, a range of efforts—at least the ones likely to gener- ate the most added growth—are a steep public policies stunted the market cut in the corporate tax rate, the replacement of Obamacare, and the permission for cheap, renewable individual of faster building of energy infrastructure. insurance policies. In addition, some policy proposals are designed to boost the labor force by This alternative would face some criti- Instead it would end funding for Obama - encouraging “non-working” homemakers cism from both left and right. Some on the care but also establish the new, simpler tax raising children to get paid positions. right would call it “Obamacare lite,” since credit, stipulating that people could use the These include subsidizing commercial it would involve the use of tax credits to credit to buy any policy that met the two day care and cutting tax rates on the sec- help people buy health insurance. But a conditions—approval from state regula- ondary (lower) earner in married couples. replacement of Obamacare along these tors and renewability—that conservative In particular, increasing subsidies for lines would eliminate its federal definition replacement plans envision. Obamacare’s commercial child care appears to have of essential benefits, its age bands, its regulations could stay on the books, but growing bipartisan support. Although employer and individual mandate, its they would be made irrelevant. Replace- some support it as a way to increase Medicare rationing board, and its federally ment and repeal would be accomplished in labor-force participation (and, therefore, subsidized exchanges. It would end the one step. economic growth), one gets the sense that federal government’s chief regulatory Getting Republicans to agree to this raising economic growth is only the rea- role, which was Obamacare’s main inno- strategy in the requisite numbers, over- son du jour and that the backers would vation. And this replacement, unlike coming parliamentary hurdles, and favor subsidies for commercial child care Obamacare, would be neutral with respect answering Democratic attacks on it would even if real GDP had been sailing away at to whether people chose comprehensive be no small task. It would involve taking a 4 percent for years. or catastrophic coverage. first step that is more ambitious than There are plenty of reasons to improve The result would be a market that repeal-and-delay would, and therefore it government policy toward parents. Al - was in important respects freer not only might take longer to accomplish. But it though fertility decisions are largely a than what we have now but than what would reduce the likelihood of severe dis- matter of personal choice, they have major we had before Obamacare. Even before ruption to health-insurance markets and implications for society as a whole. For Obamacare, a range of public policies of a political debacle for Republicans. It example, every government has a “call stunted the market for cheap, renewable would rip out Obamacare’s regulatory option”—whether it’s explicit or not—on individual insurance policies. A conser- heart, which repeal-and-delay cannot a country’s youth in case of national vative Obamacare replacement would guarantee. And it would make good, at enable that market to grow. The pur- long last, on seven years’ worth of pro - Mr. Stein is an economist for an asset-management chase of health insurance would still be mises to repeal the law and replace it with firm and a former deputy assistant Treasury secretary heavily subsidized, as it has been for something better. for macroeconomic analysis.

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emergency. If there’s an emergency, we same deduction. It’s hard to see the effects other stays at home to take care of the kids. can quibble all we want about whether of this subsidy being different from the If that couple wants to earn $10,000 extra, the government should draft soldiers or effects of aid to college students. A recent a special tax rate would have the govern- simply pay enough that we can organize report from the New York Federal Reserve ment put a thumb on the scale in favor of an effective army of volunteers. Either suggests that most of an increase in feder- the homemaker’s getting a job rather than way, the parents of these fighters are meet - ally subsidized student-loan limits is just the already-working parent’s asking for ing a social obligation that others are not. passed on to schools in the form of higher more hours, getting a second job, or look- Moreover, it’s up to every generation to tuition, with schools with high admission ing for a job that pays more. That kind of raise enough kids to finance government- rates being the worst offenders. In a simi- bias is neither conservative nor efficient. run pension systems such as Social lar way, most of the benefits of subsidies A lower tax rate for secondary earners Security and Medicare. Our kids’ future for commercial child care would go to the would encourage labor-force participa- incomes will pay for most of these bene- producers of that child care, not to parents. tion but raise the opportunity cost of hav- fits. And raising kids often takes time If the government pays people to buy a ing children. This would be unwise, given away from money-earning activities. product—any product, whether a good or that the fertility rate among native-born Tax relief associated with raising kids should not hinge on the parents’ use of commercial child care.

Once again, parents are subsidizing those a service—those who make that product Americans is 1.9 children per woman, who live child-free. are going to capture a large share of the lower than the roughly 2.1 needed to Many libertarian economists assert benefit. By contrast, a policy to cut taxes maintain a population. that government should be “neutral” on for parents, regardless of whether a cou- For tax purposes, it would be better to the issue of raising children. But they’re ple includes a homemaker, will go to the treat married couples in part as econom- essentially arguing that the government parents themselves. Tax relief associated ic partnerships, with couples owning an should be neutral about whether the with raising kids, whether it comes equal share of their total combined nation exists in the future. That ought to through deductions or credits, should income regardless of who brings home be a step too far for any libertarian who therefore not hinge on the parents’ use of a paycheck. accepts that liberty itself derives from commercial child care. Doing that would be simple: Make each certain social and institutional structures Delivering tax relief for parents through tax bracket twice as wide for joint filers as that would fade away as the people who a special, lower tax rate for secondary for singles. This doubling for couples is created our way of life did so. earners is a particularly perverse idea. already the norm in the tax code in many However, subsidies for commercial Think of a married couple in which one ways. The current standard deduction for day care and special, lower tax rates for parent earns $60,000 a year while the joint filers is $12,700, twice the amount secondary earners are deeply flawed poli- available for singles; joint filers get their cies for parents. Much of the benefit first $18,650 in taxable income charged would not flow to parents themselves, at 10 percent, versus $9,325 for singles; and in many cases they’d simply shift joint filers get the next $57,250 in income unmeasured home production into mea- taxed at 15 percent, versus $28,625 for sured GDP, with no net change in the singles. It’s only for married couples standard of living either of parents or of making more than $165,800 that the cur- non-parents. (The supporters of these rent tax code deviates from this pattern— proposals also ignore the social benefits and the deviation is in favor of singles. provided by homemakers.) I’m not arguing that all parent couples More generally, the obsession with should include a homemaker, much less raising labor-force participation by reduc- that public policy should aggressively ing homemaking is misplaced. Let’s take promote homemaking. There are plenty the classic example: Instead of two home- of parent couples who are better off when makers’ taking care of their own kids, both get a paycheck in the paid labor they decide to enter the paid labor force as force, and whose kids are better off as child-care workers and swap kids each well. (If I were my family’s homemaker, GETTY IMAGES / morning, paying each other for day-care my kids would beg for day care.) service. According to government statisti- Yes, if we can get some highly skilled cians, the labor force goes up, and GDP homemakers back into the paid labor goes up. But our standard of living is force—homemakers who earn much essentially unchanged. more than the typical day-care worker— BIBLIOTECA AMBROSIANA / Take the idea of letting working parents then maybe we can achieve some overall deduct the costs of commercial child care economic gains. But the full economic DE AGOSTINI but not giving homemaking parents the effects and social costs of having more

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homemakers in the paid labor force more, enjoyed better health, and saw would be complex, and the complexity their children do better in school than did must not be gainsaid. families who stayed behind. Take the dilemma faced by many cou- Help Them Mobility works. But Americans’ mobil- ples working in or around major high- ity has been declining since the 1980s. We paying metropolitan areas. As they reach HowMove to assist the poor in are, in fact, now less likely to have moved their child-raising years, they have a recently than are Canadians. This lack of choice. Both can stay in the work force, seeking better homes geographic mobility correlates strongly and they get to live in a closer suburb with a decline in income mobility (the with shorter commutes and more local BY KEVIN D. WILLIAMSON ability to improve one’s financial lot). It is amenities—or one spouse can stay at a compound stagnation. home, and they’re bound for an outer OR the past year or so, I have been Ronald Bailey offers a helpful contri- suburb. Many couples have a secondary involved in an on-again/off- bution to the debate in the January edition earner stay in the work force for “defen- F again debate with a number of of Reason under the headline “Stuck.” sive” reasons, in case they have to com- conservatives of the “paleo” ten- Bailey pays a visit to his family’s ances- pete in the housing market. dency, Michael Brendan Dougherty tral home in McDowell County, W.Va., a These couples face a version of a prominent among them, on the question moribund coal-mining village suffering “prisoner’s dilemma.” If everyone else of what to do about economically stag- from all the familiar Appalachian mal- has a secondary earner staying home nant and socially dysfunctional commu- adies: poverty, unemployment, disease, with the kids, one couple might decide it nities. This has taken place in the context addiction, short lives. “Why don’t people was worth it to have both in the work of the election year’s attention to what we just move?” he asks. He is partly able to force, just to live closer to the city. The euphemistically call the “white working answer his own question, from family secondary earner’s extra income, minus class” (its main problem is that it is not experience: They did. Bailey’s family left the costs of day care, could give them working) and its attraction to Donald in his grandparents’ generation, and enough extra cash flow to buy a home Trump’s anti-capitalist populism. The about 80 percent of the county’s residents closer in. But if every couple opts for answer I have come up with—that people followed suit. The same pattern holds both spouses’ working, local home should leave those communities, if they throughout Appalachia and small towns prices will adjust upward, leaving that can, and seek better lives for themselves in the Rust Belt, but also in major cities couple with no edge in the housing mar- elsewhere—has scandalized some of my and formerly major cities such as Detroit, ket. Even worse, if the original couple friends on the right. where the black middle class left the city now decides to have only one worker, It shouldn’t. And, in the past, it didn’t: almost as a unit in the course of a remark- they have to live even farther outside the No conservative social critic ever blinked ably short period of time, between ten and city as other couples with dual incomes an eye or coughed up his cognac when twenty years. Similar patterns can be seen outbid them for homes. the best advice from the right to the dis- in cities such as Philadelphia and Balti - As a result, the benefits of having more contented and ambitious poor was to get more, where the middle class (black, potential homemakers work are, in large out of the ghetto or the barrio, get an edu- white, and other) abandoned the cities but part, captured by incumbent owners of cation, get a job, and start a new life and did not stray too far, leaving for better inner-suburb real estate, who get a wind- a new family in some more prosperous schools, lower taxes, and safer streets in fall gain and an enriched retirement. This corner of the county or country. But the the suburbs. The sobering fact is that the may be one reason so many working dead and dying and white towns of story of inner-city Baltimore is a great mothers—54 percent—say they would Appalachia and the Rust Belt are another deal like that of small-town Kentucky: ideally like to stay at home. story. “Why should they have to go else- The people who remain are to a very large Finally, homemakers are often the where?” our freshly created populists extent those who lack the resources— backbones of the civic organizations on demand. The answer is, Because the lives financial or spiritual—to leave. which ongoing communities depend. they desire are not to be had where they We could do with a great deal less Homemakers in this sense are the ulti- are; their communities, along with their sentimentality about all this. There is mate leaders of the “little platoons”— families in many cases, are terribly sick, something to be said for rootedness and volunteering in schools and running car and the hard truth is that they’d be better fixedness, and the Burkean critique of pools, the PTA, swim teams, Scouts, and off putting some distance between them- modern mass capitalism is not without religious education. Sure, there are also selves and them. Some of the diseases of some merit. But the insights of the plenty of working parents (including the poverty are individual, but some of them Burkean disposition are almost entirely author) who do such things, but many of thrive in congregation (gang violence is negative. It is good to be reminded from these activities would be almost impossi- the obvious example), and the only time to time what is in the “losses” col- ble without homemakers. treatment for these is dilution. A 2000 umn of the ledger, but the question is how The next two years will likely bring Brookings study of Jack Kemp’s famous to make it balance out a little better. If we major changes to many areas of economic Moving to Opportunity program found are committed to wishful thinking about policy. Conservatives need to keep in “striking” evidence that poor families an improbable return to post-war eco- mind that the goal of faster economic who moved out of poor communities nomic conditions and yet unwilling to growth doesn’t require policies that with help from the Department of Hous - maintain Americans in economically mar- adversely affect family life. ing and Urban Development earned ginal communities in public dependence

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indefinitely, then what can be done to help housing drives mobility more than work finances of unemployed or otherwise eco- them become economically self-suffi- does, and that areas with newer and nomically distressed families. To the con- cient and form stable families? cheaper housing enjoy significantly more siderable extent that Washington sets the Republicans, or at least a non-trivial mobility. Cheap housing is the secret standard for mortgage lending, we should portion of them, are for the moment in sauce of places such as Houston and Las make it well-nigh impossible for non- danger of being seduced by autarkic pro- Vegas, and the want of it is the curse of millionaires to get a mortgage with less tectionist thinking and by what we used places such as Silicon Valley. Indeed, a than 20 percent down. As our Reihan to call “industrial policy,” as though cen- spate of recent California media reports Salam and others have argued, home tral planning conducted by right-leaning about homelessness in the Bay Area and ownership with 60 percent equity is an politicians were somehow immune to the throughout the technology corridor found asset; home ownership with trivial or vices of central planning conducted by relatively little actual homelessness but negative equity is an economic millstone left-leaning politicians. There is a lot instead found workers coming to partici- around the necks of immobilized work- wrong with that view, but for the pur- pate in the technology boom (which is a ers. The housing market is currently in poses of the immediate discussion it is boom for people in service industries, too, reasonably good shape—and it is far eas- sufficient to understand that there is no and not just programmers and engineers) ier to reform a healthy market than a col- level of protectionism or industrial sub- and living in crowded and uncomfortable lapsing one. Here, President Trump has an sidy that is going to “bring back manu- conditions, e.g., four families in an apart- opportunity to use his often-expressed facturing jobs” to places such as eastern ment designed for one small one. Which penchant for strong executive action in Kentucky, which never had very many of is to say, ambitious working-class people his actual area of expertise: real estate. them to begin with, or to attract such with families seeking their fortunes in Regulatory reforms in that direction at antediluvian industries as textile manu- Palo Alto are a lot like ambitious young FHA and FHFA would not necessarily facturing and semi-skilled electronics while-collar singles crowding four to a require congressional action. Improving the housing situation is a long-term project— even if zoning rules were changed overnight, housing wouldn’t simply spring up from the earth.

assembly to post-industrial small-town studio apartment in Brooklyn: They’re Improving the housing situation is a America. The reason for that is simply willing, at least for a period, to endure bad long-term project—even if zoning rules that there are not enough skilled workers housing arrangements. But doing that as a were changed overnight, housing in those places, and especially in their 22-year-old publishing assistant in New wouldn’t simply spring up from the remote communities, to justify large York is different from doing it as a father earth. An expedient for the meantime investments in factories and other phys- of three in Oakland. The housing crisis in would be simply to pay people to move. ical capital. You’d be a great deal more California is almost entirely man-made, We already spend a great deal of money, likely to see that kind of work cropping a result of extraordinarily restrictive zon- through unemployment benefits, paying up in facilities on the edges of Houston, ing and environmental codes and epic people to stay in place. It would make Los Angeles, or Nashville, with their NIMBYism of a uniquely Californian sense to offer a worker eligible for 26 large, skilled work forces and ready variety. A Republican party wishing to weeks of unemployment benefits a lump- connections to global markets and renew its prospects in California (which it sum payment of his remaining eligibility transportation infrastructure. It isn’t im - once dominated) or in American cities (perhaps in the form of relocation assis- possible to manufacture clothing in the could—and should—make affordable tance, or maybe just a check) if he United States—Brooks Brothers and Hart housing the centerpiece of its agenda for moves to take a job after two or three Schaffner Marx both make high-end suits the cities. For people who are not working weeks rather than riding out the entire in the United States—but there is not at Facebook or Goldman Sachs, it is a 26 weeks of eligibility. We could also much reason to do it in any given small great deal easier to relocate into a $700-a- use tax credits or other instruments to town in West Virginia or eastern Ohio. month apartment in San Antonio than to encourage businesses to be more proac- If the work is not coming to the people, find a decent shelter in San Francisco. If tive in helping blue-collar workers relo- then the people have to come to the work. we want workers and would-be workers cate for work. Under current practice, There is not a plausible third option. to move, we ought to try to ensure that relocation benefits are reserved almost To understand how to help people there are places for them to move to. entirely for the white-collar workers move, it is helpful to understand why peo- There is another aspect of housing who need them least. ple move in the first place. In most cases, that reduces mobility, especially during None of this is going to fix what ails it isn’t for work. According to census downturns: excessive mortgage debt. Bailey’s McDowell County or Dough - data, most people move in pursuit of bet- One would think that after the financial erty’s Garbutt, N.Y. But it would help ter housing, not better jobs. A University crisis of 2008–09, we would have got reli- ensure that geography is not destiny for of California study (written up by Richard gion on the question of upside-down loan- people residing in such places and desir- Florida in The Atlantic) also finds that to-value ratios and their toxic effect on the ing something better.

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tion was adopted in 1993. And, in Article a warrior,” he said. “I’m a simple, un - 31, it guarantees the right to peaceful pretentious man in the street. But this is assembly, rallies, pickets, and so on. my country. Some one has to speak up To Protest “The Putin regime is sending a pow- when the emperor has no clothes. I mean, erful message heard throughout Russia really: How much longer can this go on?” An oppressiveIn Russia law and the ordeal of of a repressive new reality unseen in Ionov said he was not concerned about decades,” wrote Paula Chertok, at the prison. “I’ve lived here for many years. I Ildar Dadin beginning of last year. She is a lawyer have nowhere to run.” And yet he did born in the Soviet Union and long living run—to Ukraine, where he sought asy- BY JAY NORDLINGER in the United States. “If you dare to speak lum. It was granted. out against government policies or leader- “Did Ildar consider running?” I ask S of this writing, Ildar Dadin is ship, the authorities will ruthlessly treat Anastasia. “We talked about it,” she says, alive and well. He is a prison- you as a common criminal and send you “but he didn’t want to do it. He said, ‘It’s A er—but he is no longer being away for years in penal colonies.” So it my country, and I’m not going to leave it tortured, and his family no has proven. Ildar Dadin is the proof. but to change it, so that we can have a longer fears for his life. For now. He was born in 1982, making him 34 country to be proud of.’” Dadin is probably the best-known today. He grew up in Balashikha, a He was arrested on January 15, 2015. political prisoner in Russia. And he has suburb of Moscow. As the regime of At trial, he said he wanted to defend the the unwelcome distinction of being the Vladimir Putin lengthened, he began to constitution. Russian media reported that first person jailed under Article 212.1 protest. He protested the arrest of Putin his own father testified against him. of the Russian Criminal Code. Those opponents. He protested unfair elections. This is false, says Anastasia: Ildar’s numerals—212.1—are notorious among He protested war in Ukraine. Etc. Often, father is proud and supportive of his Russian democrats. “No to 212.1,” read he stood alone, with a placard, bearing a son. What happened is, the prosecutors their placards. message. He was exercising what he doctored a testimony and had the elder Enacted in July 2014 and taking effect considered his right to criticize the gov- Dadin sign it. at the beginning of 2015, this article is ernment, even in public. Those prosecutors asked for a two-year somewhat tricky, but it amounts to this: His wife, Anastasia Zotova, is his cham- sentence on Ildar. The judge upped the Repeated public protests of the govern- pion. They met when she was working as ante, giving him three years. An appeal ment, without the permission of that same a journalist, covering protests such as his. led to a new hearing. Dadin was not government, are banned. This article is at One day in August 2014, she and some allowed to appear in person. He spoke odds with the constitution, as democrats friends staged a protest of their own. Ildar by video link, from prison. “I am here are quick to point out. Russia’s constitu- joined them. He and “Nastya” talked. because I live in accordance with my “Then we became friends on Face book,” conscience,” he said. He equated silence she tells me, “and, after a while, we be - with complicity. Ordinary citizens have a came real friends. Then we fell in love.” responsibility for what goes on in their She had never met anyone so smart, country, he said. brave, and honest, she says. “Like from a Dadin’s sentence was reduced to two movie or a song or something. I can’t and a half years. believe that a man like this is real.” Her He was first jailed in Moscow, and then mother was not so happy. In fact, she dis- sent to St. Petersburg, and then back to owned her daughter after Ildar and Moscow. Later, he was sent to Penal Nastya got married. “You are Colony No. 7, in Segezha, Republic of the wife of an enemy of the Karelia, near Finland. During the Soviet state,” she said. “I don’t have a period, this town and its surroundings daughter anymore.” were an island in the Gulag archipelago. Anastasia explains that her “Segezhlag,” they called it. In the post- mother is not pro-Putin. Rath er, Soviet period, No. 7’s most famous pris- she is pro–getting along, pro– oner has been Mikhail Khodorkovsky, not rocking the boat. This is the oligarch whom Putin jailed for ten the attitude of most Rus sians, years (2003 to 2013). Anastasia says. On October 31, 2016, Dadin got a letter Though Ildar Dadin was the out to Anastasia. He did it by dictating it first to be imprisoned under to his lawyer, Alexei Liptser. A lawyer is 212.1, he was not the first to be not allowed to receive an item from a pris- arrested under that oppressive oner—an item such as a letter—and take law: That distinction belongs it away. But he may take down a letter, to Vladimir Ionov, an activist dictated to him by the prisoner. in his mid seventies. Pro- “Nastya!” Ildar began. “If you decide government hoods beat him to publish this information about what is Anastasia Zotova and Ildar Dadin up near the Kremlin. “I’m not happening to me, then try to distribute

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it as widely as possible. This will in - Magnitsky, was tortured to death. That crease my chances of staying alive.” was in 2009. Three years later, the U.S. Then, in excruciating paragraphs, he re- Congress passed the Magnitsky Act, lated his experience. designed to sanction those responsible Farewell, He arrived at Penal Colony No. 7 on for this crime. September 10, 2016. Immediately, they Of Dadin, Browder said, “What shocked HeObama? isn’t going anywhere seized his belongings and threw him into me is that they hung him up by his wrists. solitary confinement. They denied him It brought me right back to seven years even toilet paper. In protest, he began a ago when Sergei Magnitsky was killed. I BY ROB LONG hunger strike. pray it doesn’t happen to Dadin.” The next day, the head of the prison, After Dadin’s letter received attention ET’S start by facing facts: Barack Major Sergei Leonidovich Kossiev, came abroad, his wife was able to go see him. Obama isn’t going anywhere. to him with three employees. “Together, “He looked very bad,” she says—“like an L When George W. Bush left the they started beating me. Over the course old man. His hair was white. His hands White House, someone asked of that day, I was beaten a total of four were shaking. He had trouble speaking him what he was going to do all day now times, by ten to twelve people at once. because he had trouble breathing.” that he was no longer president. He They would kick me. After the third beat- Soon he was missing—missing within shrugged and said, “Play with my dogs.” ing, they lowered my head into a toilet the prison system. That is, the authorities He might not have said those exact right there in the holding cell.” did not tell his family where he was words—let’s call it a myth—but that’s That was September 11. This was Sep - (though they were required by law to do pretty much what he did after eight tember 12: “Employees cuffed my hands so). He was not at No. 7. Where was he? tumultuous years in the hot seat. And I’m behind my back and hung me by the His family feared the worst. For more not sure whether anyone asked the same handcuffs. . . . I was suspended like that than a month, they were kept in the dark. question of Bill Clinton as he was headed for half an hour. Then they took off my Finally, they were told that he was in out the door, but they probably didn’t underwear and said they would bring Siberia, in the town of Rubtsovsk, near need to. We all knew what Bill Clinton another prisoner to rape me unless I the Kazakh border, at Penal Colony No. 5. was going to do all day, now that he was stopped my hunger strike.” Anastasia talked with him by phone. no longer president. He was going to get Next, “I was brought to Kossiev’s He reported, convincingly, that he was rich. And so he did, spectacularly so, office, where he said to me in the pres- well, no longer under torture. Publicity— shimmering away in a cloud of private- ence of other staff, ‘You have been beaten especially as generated by his fearless and jet exhaust and six-figure speaking fees, very little. If I give the order, you will be loyal wife—seems to have spared him. appearing wherever louche billionaires beaten much worse. If you try to com- Others are less lucky. and supermodels formed a good-time plain, they will kill you and bury you At his appellate hearing in March quorum. (Aside from getting rich, for- under the fence.’” 2016, Dadin was represented by Henri mer president Bill Clinton had one or The beatings continued—not just of Reznik, a prominent lawyer. He spoke of two other things on his post–White Dadin but of other prisoners as well. In Russia’s prestige, its honor. “This case is House to-do list.) his letter, Dadin made clear that he was of state importance,” Reznik said. “Will Barack Obama, though, doesn’t seem not the lone victim. The beatings and the state tolerate the peaceful assertion of all that interested in money. (Sure, he’ll humiliations of prisoners were constant. views? There is no place for peaceful make cascades of it, but it’s not what If the worst treatment kept up, Dadin told demonstrators behind bars. It is an affront keeps his internal engine stoked.) And Nastya, “it is unlikely that I will last more to the law.” his interest in dogs—or, for that matter, than a week.” It is an affront to the constitution, cer- most other life forms, including super- He also had a warning for her: “In case tainly, and to justice. So is Article 212.1 of models—seems mostly to be driven by of my sudden death, you may be told that the criminal code. Another Russian focus -group recommendations on “how I committed suicide, had an accident, lawyer, Ekaterina Mishina, writes that to appear more normal.” was shot while trying to escape, or died 212.1 and the Dadin case “will eventually What President Obama does best— fighting with another prisoner, but this become textbook examples of the restora- what seems to get him out of bed in the would be a lie.” tion of Bolshevik-style criminal law in morning, power him through the day, and Without delay, Anastasia released her post-Soviet Russia.” keep his lights burning at night—is talk, husband’s letter to Meduza, an agency of I ask Anastasia, “Why does Ildar do almost entirely about himself. Pretty Russian exile journalists working in Riga, what he does? Why does he risk his much every topic you can imagine—the Latvia. The Russian authorities denied all neck?” He feels compelled, she answers. weather, the Middle East, basketball, charges. Indeed, in a Kafkaesque twist, If there is injustice, he thinks he has to Jesus, you name it—becomes a conver- they threatened Dadin with a libel suit. speak out against it. He also thinks that sational vehicle for Barack Obama to One interesting reaction to the prison- the world should know that not every remind us all of his majestic power and er’s letter came from Bill Browder, the Russian goes along with the current dazzling success. And when he’s not American investor who worked in regime. Then there is this: “He told me busy spinning out clouds of self-puffery Russia and became a leading advocate of that it’s important for him to stay human. to float around on, he takes a short break human rights in that country. This hap- We are human beings, who owe some- to limn the failings and stupidities of pened after one of his lawyers, Sergei thing to others.” everyone else.

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Obama’s post-presidency won’t successor, who also seems to have unfold somewhere in the furnace- only two conversation topics: his hot ranch lands of Texas or the winningness and everyone else’s swanky dining rooms of Man - losingness. Yes, of course, Donald J. hattan. He and the family are mov- Trump doesn’t have the polish or the ing just minutes away from the class of Barack Obama, but when White House, to a mansion within you get right down to it the two of easy distance of the television stu- them are the identical sort of nar- dios of the Sunday shows and the cissist: bitter list-makers, reflexive sleek offices of his lickspittle media braggarts, perpetual self-justifiers, acolytes. It’s a big house, too— petty insulters. Barack Obama and 8,200 square feet—with plenty of Donald Trump are basically the same what real-estate advertisements call guy, it’s just that Barack Obama is “entertaining space,” where he and the NPR version. Michelle can entertain the throngs What this means, of course, is that of media and political grandees who there will be two White Houses for just can’t get enough of Barack the next four years, the real one and Obama’s favorite subject, about the one the Obamas hold court in, which he’ll hold forth over intimate down the road in Kalorama. Former dinners, drinks parties, off-the- presidents usually try to give the new record little lunches, and carefully guy some space, at least for the first orchestrated “dinner guests over- year or two, but Obama is no more heard” buffet gatherings. able to hold his tongue or keep it to The cocktail parties they’ll have! The every two-term president. They all talk a himself than his successor, so we can all “at home” photo shoots! Michelle rais- good game about wanting to extend their expect regular issuances of critiques, ing baby bok choy in the back garden legacy and doing the best for the team, but insults, condemnations, and denunciations and Barack taking breaks from his when it comes right down to it, there’s from the Kalorama House, followed by a book-writing to practice putting it into a nothing a true narcissist (and most suc- volley of awkwardly spelled mean-girl Mason jar! Think of the awful, bum- cessful presidents qualify for that diagno- tweets from the other president, wherever kissing titles! “Barack and Michelle: At sis) likes better than knowing that he’s he happens to be at the time. Obama will Peace & at Home.” And: “The Obamas really and truly irreplaceable. Dwight hold forth from Charlie Rose’s round table of Kalorama.” And: “Obama, Unbound.” Eisenhower was famously withholding and Fareed Zakaria’s club chairs. Trump The fashion features and the close-ups of of enthusiasm for his wishful successor, will retaliate by calling in to Morn ing Joe. the healthy dinners! The funny portraits of Richard Nixon. Ronald Reagan waited Neither one of these men can shut up. Barack Obama without his BlackBerry! until late in the spring of 1988 to endorse Neither one can imagine that there is any- And on and on. his vice president, George H. W. Bush. one on the planet better at presiding than Save your farewells. He isn’t going And even then, his support was widely he. But Trump has one major advantage: anywhere. (Neither is she, by the way. described as “tepid.” He knows he’s a shallow, narcissistic Stay tuned for Michelle Obama’s second On Inauguration Day 2001, when creep. He’s said as much in his books and act. Here’s a preview: shadow senator George W. Bush arrived at the White interviews. Barack Obama, in his private from the District of Columbia. You heard House for the traditional pre-ceremony heart of hearts, really thinks he’s a kind of it here first.) coffee between the guy on the way in and living god. In skirmishes like these, the Whatever the collateral damage of the guy on the way out, he was greeted by winner is usually the one with unsenti- Election Night 2016, one thing is certain: a mile-wide smile and a laughing embrace mental, blunt self-knowledge. The Democratic party is a smoking ruin, an from President Bill Clinton. The cameras That won’t stop Barack Obama, private apocalyptic landscape ruled by bands of captured an emblematic moment between citizen, from reminding us all—in books, thieves, chaos, and the walking dead. Eight the two of them: Clinton leaning in to interviews, op-eds, magazine profiles, years of an Obama at All Costs strategy has Bush to whisper something in his ear, and of course through his cut-outs in the left it with a rickety, amateur-hour bench of Bush throwing his head back in a loud media—exactly how great we had it (de- state and local politicians; a wax museum guffaw. What did the outgoing president spite the evidence) and exactly how great of elderly and exhausted national figures; a say to the incoming president? We don’t he was (despite the evidence) and exactly wandering and rudderless party base; and know for sure, but it was probably somehow awful his successor is (despite . . . a raging, manic-depressive left-wing thing mean about Al Gore. well, let’s all take a deep breath here). media. When a two-term president ends Barack Obama has no successor. He has After all, this is pretty much how President his run, he usually steps aside to let the next no replacement. He is the de facto head of Obama governed for eight long years:

GETTY IMAGES class take the reins. But for the Democratic the Democratic party, such as it is, and he’s in one continuous self-justifying blame- / party, there is no next class. There is only got a base of operations in the District to shifting monologue, interrupted here and Barack Obama, and he’s still in town. do what he does best: brag about himself there by violent agreement and deafening In a creepy—though totally human— and run down his political enemies. applause from the nation’s journalists. CHIP SOMODEVILLA sense, that’s sort of the secret dream of In that respect, he’s very similar to his He. Is. Not. Going. Anywhere.

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Trade Reciprocity With China Some main points of a fair policy

BY DEREK SCISSORS

UR economic policy with regard to China has been now less of a problem than theft of intellectual property. Trade wrong for almost 20 years. We were wrong in the late remains paramount at the same time that investment is increas- O 1990s to believe that the Chinese Communist Party ingly important. Mere words will not make China change. Yet was committed to pro-market reform for the long while disruptive action is necessary, it will help only if dictated term. We were wrong in the mid 2000s to discourage the U.S. by current facts rather than outdated rhetoric. government from retaliating against discriminatory Chinese regulations. We were wrong as recently as two years ago when we, Democrats and Republicans alike, failed to see how much trade RUMP strained credulity in some of his campaign com- with China had contributed to populist anger. ments, such as calling the North American Free Trade There is, one could say, huge room for improvement in eco- Agreement the “single worst trade deal,” even though nomic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This Tmanufacturing employment rose in the four years after its does not mean that all the ideas President Trump and his key enactment. Nonetheless, he repeatedly and correctly tapped aides have floated will make things better. We cannot turn back into a key element of the U.S.–China economic relationship the clock, and the American manufacturing sector cannot simply that many veteran observers continue to get wrong: America return to where it was before China joined the World Trade does have much greater leverage than it has so far used to bring Organization in late 2001. about Chinese reforms. The challenge for the incoming administration is to consider Trump’s critics and those who are worried about a U.S.–PRC what China has done in the past but choose responses that work trade conflict often make sweeping statements that both sides now and in the future. Currency manipulation, for example, is would lose in such a clash, or even that China would come off better. Usually they are incorrectly imagining a simple tariff duel. Mr. Scissors is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and the chief It is true that limiting voluntary trade and investment transactions LUBA MYTS economist for the China Beige Book. would make both countries lose, but one country has far more at

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stake. Rather than anticipating some sort of strategic victory U.S. affirmed permanent normal trading relations for China 16 from a serious trade conflict, the PRC will fear correctly that it years ago. This was not entirely due to China, of course, but a would lose, in absolute terms and also relative to the U.S., and widely accepted series of academic papers by David Autor, will work to contain conflict. David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson have isolated the impact of The United States sells a good amount of aircraft, auto parts, China. Rising exposure to Chinese imports by itself, apart from soybeans, and a few other products and services to the PRC. all other factors, caused lower American manufacturing employ- American consumers would be hurt if goods produced or assem- ment, lower labor-force participation, and lower wages. bled over there became costlier because of import duties. The While tough competition for American manufacturers was poor would be hurt the most, since our main imports from China expected, economists thought that there would eventually be are cell phones, personal computers, and clothing made more equivalent opportunities to sell to Chinese buyers. This has affordable because trans-Pacific supply chains allow production not happened, essentially because the Communist Party likes lines to tap cheap labor and technical know-how at the same time. competition only in other economies. The biggest problem is If production lines lacked these, prices would rise. Even with that the U.S., the world’s most competitive services producer, higher prices, the middle class could afford new phones, comput- faces state-owned Chinese enterprises that are guaranteed by ers, and clothes, but the poor would more frequently go without. the Communist Party to retain a controlling share of their sec- A fading concern is Beijing’s holdings of U.S. Treasury tors. The Trump campaign correctly indicted Chinese subsi- bonds. These holdings, both direct and indirect through coun- dies, and the most powerful subsidy is a guarantee that a firm tries such as Belgium and offshore centers such as the will not fail. Caymans, have dropped by at least $350 billion in the past three A second harm deliberately inflicted on the U.S. by China was years and will continue to fall, both through a drop in sales and minor in 2001 but has grown enormously since: theft of trade simply from Beijing’s not buying new bonds as existing hold- secrets and other intellectual property, also correctly criticized by ings come to term. The decline has had no significant impact the Trump campaign. Documenting the amount of theft is diffi- because the PRC’s holdings are trivial compared with our inter- cult, but it’s probably tens of billions of dollars annually over the nal financial conditions—specifically the sustained, historically past decade. It’s not just American technology companies that are low U.S. interest rates and the Fed’s unwillingness or inability being robbed; it’s American innovators of all shapes and sizes to lift them. and the many millions of people whose jobs are connected to Much more interesting is the reason that China’s bond hold- intellectual property. ings are falling: Beijing has less money to spend on everything, including American bonds. In July 2014, the total amount of foreign exchange held in the Chinese banking system—includ- RESIDENT TRUMP, as he noted while campaigning, will ing but not limited to official reserves—peaked at more than $4.8 have a big economic stick and good reasons to use it. But trillion. By November 2016, that number had dropped by roughly the Trump campaign’s rhetoric about China did not $1.2 trillion. (This number is difficult to calculate because the Pinclude an explanation of how to bring about better results for the PRC changed the statistics it publishes, probably to obscure the United States. The first step is to avoid harmful mistakes that amount of money leaving the country.) would make future improvements impossible. The incoming It hardly seems like a problem that “only” $3.5 trillion or so is administration may find these don’ts particularly disagreeable. left. Yet throughout 2016, the steepness of the decline in foreign Trump and his staff have repeatedly vowed to be tougher nego- exchange led to episodes of international financial instability tiators than past administrations have been. It might not matter. over fears that China, out of choice or necessity, might either give The United States has conducted formal economic talks with in to the pressure and let the yuan fall sharply or fight it by for- the PRC since the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade bidding capital to leave China. Moreover, the $1.3 trillion drop was formed in 1983. Negotiated outcomes have depended less in less than 30 months occurred even while the PRC gained on who was running the American team than on who was run- approximately $750 billion in hard currency from its goods-and- ning the Communist Party. If current leader Xi Jinping wants to services trade with the United States. Without that huge sum of limit foreign participation in the Chinese economy simply money, China’s balance-of-payments position—the net of hard because it is foreign, as it appears he does from Chinese actions currency coming into the country minus the currency leaving against foreign companies since he assumed power, it will be it—would be perilous. impossible to make China a good economic partner. The Trump For his part, Trump during the campaign repeatedly made administration will have to act unilaterally, which will make the the protectionist claim that the trade deficit causes job loss. diplomatic community nervous. There are crippling flaws in this view (see below), but if the In that case, the next point would be crucial: The trade deficit president really holds it, he may see even radical steps to zero should not be the focus of American policy, because it does not out the trade deficit as worthwhile for the United States. signify lost American jobs. Organized labor insists that the trade Ultimately in play is $300 billion heading from the U.S. to deficit represents production that could have been located in the China each year, money Beijing now needs to insure against a United States. If imports are cut, the theory goes, American balance-of-payments crisis. production will rise to replace them. But facts and logic say America faces no risk of that magnitude—the PRC’s greater otherwise. In 2006, the highest annual trade deficit in history vulnerability should be obvious. So should the considerable coincided with the lowest U.S. unemployment and highest damage that the U.S. has suffered from its bilateral economic labor-force participation in the past 15 years. In 2009, our trade relationship with China. We know from labor-market statistics deficit fell by more than $300 billion, yet unemployment and that manufacturing employment and wages suffered after the labor-force participation worsened sharply.

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Protectionists make several mistakes, but their key error is HERE are various options the Trump administration can confusing accounting with causation. They claim that the trade pursue to improve the economic relationship with the deficit causes job loss because it reduces gross domestic prod- PRC without relying on the Party’s goodwill or good uct. But GDP is just an accounting tool; it cannot cause anything. sTense. Most, but not all, feature punishment of bad Chinese What actually causes jobs and trade to change is household behavior. Campaign statements and the backgrounds of incom- income. When we are wealthier, we buy more of everything, ing officials, such as Commerce Secretary–designate Wilbur including imports. The opposite occurs in down years. Sound Ross, make tariffs on auto parts, steel, and textiles, for example, economic policy can therefore boost the trade deficit, while very likely. But without a strategy guiding such steps, they poor policy can yield a trade surplus, as occurred during the would be mainly symbolic. Great Depression. A foundation for a sound strategy, one that has been invoked This misunderstanding of the trade deficit matters in two by Trump and his staff, is the principle of reciprocity. There are ways. First, our largest bilateral deficit is with the PRC, so perhaps two dozen sectors, such as insurance, that are effectively attacking the deficit implies restricting imports from China first closed to American goods and services because the Chinese and foremost. Yet in the age of supply chains, emphasizing a government protects its state-owned enterprises through regula- bilateral deficit makes less sense than emphasizing the overall tory and financial subsidies. In this context, the U.S. has justifi- deficit. For instance, when China conducts the final assembly cation to restrict Chinese trade and investment to parts of the of cell phones, its exports to the U.S. are credited with the American market, selected by the incoming administration to fit phones’ full value even though components made in Japan, its larger economic strategy. Korea, and elsewhere account for most of that value. Our true Simple reciprocity—closing to China all the sectors that China deficit with China is smaller than reported; our deficits with closes to the U.S.—would be a mistake, however. Closing off some countries are larger. parts of the economy to competition should always be the last The second, more hotly discussed area in which misunder- resort, because it hurts us as well as them. The Communist Party standings of the deficit need correction is currency manipula- clings to the hope that closed markets and suppressed competition tion. Currency manipulation seems esoteric until someone are compatible with prosperity. With disposable income in China insists that it costs hundreds of thousands of American jobs. This less than one-tenth that in the U.S., state-led development has not In general, we should make policy not to try to restore the past but to help Americans in 2017 and beyond.

claim relies on the underlying beliefs that currency manipulation brought prosperity yet. And with the PRC in the process of record- increases the trade deficit (true) and reduces GDP (only in an ing arguably the biggest debt splurge in world history, the future accounting sense). That lower GDP means fewer jobs is does not look bright, either. The U.S. should also exercise caution assumed. But a direct comparison of the value of the Chinese by not breaking commitments on specific sectors made to other yuan with U.S. employment and labor-force participation shows economic partners and the World Trade Organization (WTO). no relationship over time. The PRC’s currency policy has not Instead, the Trump administration should adopt narrow mattered to American jobs. responses that make better sense than China’s more sweeping It might matter in the future. It is fashionable to criticize anti-competitive policies. A WTO that permits the PRC’s anti- Trump by saying that Beijing now manipulates the yuan to keep competitive practices should not object to documenting the ben- it from falling against the dollar. This is true but superficial. The efits granted to state-owned enterprises; nor should it object to deeper question is why the yuan is falling against the dollar invoking reciprocity to restrict Chinese participation in a few when the Communist Party insists that the Chinese economy is American industries. The documentation of how the PRC blocks strong and its financial system healthy. This traces back to the U.S. competition and of the retaliatory restrictions placed on PRC’s financial vulnerability, which shines through its propa- Chinese goods and services in target sectors should include a ganda. It is possible that the yuan will drop sharply at some point pledge to restore Chinese access to U.S. markets when Beijing because of foolish Chinese policy. If so, the U.S. should then improves its policies. consider retaliating. The U.S. can allow the PRC to try to right the There will be objections of various sorts to closing even one ship by using exchange rates, but it has no obligation to be toler- or two major sectors of the American economy to Chinese par- ant if China’s correction hurts the American economy. ticipation. These objections will have merit, but the only realistic Any action, however, should not include across-the-board alternative is the status quo. The Communist Party is intensely tariffs. Across-the-board tariffs are appealing, given the extent committed to its “national champions,” its ever-larger state- of the problems in the U.S.–PRC economic relationship. But no controlled companies, and mere talk will not open the PRC fur- matter how high the tariffs are, they cannot set back the clock to ther. The record on this is especially clear. a time when America had a total of 19 million globally compet- The second major area of action, also mentioned by the Trump itive manufacturing workers, compared with barely 12 million campaign, is intellectual property. American leaders have talked now. This is a false hope. Moreover, across-the-board tariffs incessantly about how unacceptable intellectual-property theft is (i.e., import duties) hurt the poor most, as mentioned above. In but have done basically nothing to stop it. A grand jury in general, we should make policy not to try to restore the past but Pennsylvania issued unenforceable warrants in 2014 for a few to help Americans in 2017 and beyond. Chinese hackers, and Congress signed the Defend Trade Secrets

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Act of 2016, but no American administration has drafted meaningful sanctions. If intellectual-property theft does amount to tens of billions annually, the equivalent of strongly worded letters Danger in Asia hardly constitutes an effective response. Who steals the intellectual property is not the main commercial issue. Instead, it is who receives the stolen property and thereby A strategy for the incoming administration benefits from an unfair advantage at the expense of American companies and workers. U.S. Steel Corporation has accused BY MICHAEL AUSLIN Chinese rival Baosteel of accepting intellectual property stolen from U.S. Steel and using it to create new, competing products. U.S. Steel has asked for compensatory American sanctions. IXTEEN years after 9/11, much of the world seems to be While it can be hard to uncover the identity of the thieves, inde- teetering on the brink of disorder. Much of it, that is, pendent researchers can, to some extent, document the sudden S except the Indo-Pacific region. Amid apocalyptic dev- appearance at one firm of technology developed by another. astation in Syria, ongoing Russian aggression in The American government could certainly use evidence provid- Ukraine, and the specter of a nuclear-capable Iran, a global ed by the intelligence community and targeted American com- observer may be forgiven for assuming that there is no equivalent panies to maintain a list of Chinese firms that are benefiting challenge to America in Asia. from intellectual-property theft. Could Asia, however, turn out to be the center of global crisis Perhaps the biggest obstacle is the American companies them- during the Trump administration? selves, which may not want to provoke Beijing or admit to stock- In many circles, to ask the question is to be considered a fan- holders that their intellectual property is vulnerable to theft. To tasist, an alarmist, or an ignoramus. After all, China is America’s the extent that corporate fear can be overcome by government second-largest trading partner, after Canada, while the rest of protection, the policy choice is simple. Foreign firms that use Asia has steadily modernized and globalized over the past half stolen intellectual property should be banned from our market in century. There has not been a region-wide war fought in Asia terms of trade, investment, and any activity through third parties, since 1945, and for all the decades following Hiroshima and and the length of the ban should depend on the extent of the theft. Nagasaki, the United States has held unchallenged military supe- This will give Chinese companies a substantial reason—not riority. In doing so, we have maintained a unique alliance structure merely words—to stay clear of stolen intellectual property. with five Asian nations and participated in most of the region’s There are also carrots to offer the PRC that are consistent with major multilateral initiatives, such as the East Asia Summit. President Trump’s economic agenda and may spur job creation. By any ordinary measure, Asia appears to be the world’s most With the exception of banned firms and a few sensitive technolo- energetic region, with economic opportunity, stable govern- gies, America should welcome Chinese investment and the par- ments, and a collective global importance perhaps second only to ticipation of globally experienced firms such as China National that of America’s. More than half of the world’s population lives Machinery (Sinomach) and its many subsidiaries in infrastructure- in a circle encompassing India, China, the Korean peninsula, building projects. Discriminatory practices such as the require- Japan, and Southeast Asia. Approximately 40 percent of global ment to “buy American” when federal or local governments are economic output comes from this broad Indo-Pacific region. It purchasing products or undertaking construction should be contains some of the world’s most populous countries, its largest waived for PRC companies that have not broken American laws. democracy, and its second- and third-largest economies. The chief area of government-to-government economic But there is another side to Asia’s modern story: one of deep- cooperation with China under President Obama has been the ening regional rivalries, intensifying territorial disputes, eco- negotiation of a bilateral investment treaty. The Obama admin- nomic weakness, and domestic political tension. Taken together, istration believed that the rules laid out in a successful treaty these risks threaten what many had thought would be the “Asian would cause the PRC to treat American companies operating in century.” Recognizing these challenges and developing policies China much better than previously, and that they might even set to mitigate their effects should be a primary foreign-policy goal an example for how to improve other aspects of the economic of the Trump administration. relationship. But the same China that knowingly steals enor- While only Asian nations can solve Asian problems, America mous amounts of intellectual property and refuses to allow com- remains the most important external player in the region’s des- petition with state-owned enterprises is not going to change its tiny. Whether with our friends, our potential partners, or even our behavior because of a new piece of paper. Only an America that competitors, we have a role to play in managing risk and attempt- retains the ability to punish theft and invoke reciprocity can craft ing to preserve Asia’s prosperity and stability for another gener- a valuable agreement with China. ation. For Trump’s national-security team, having a plan in place Next year will probably be difficult for Sino–American eco- to address these concerns is vital. Even the most experienced of nomic relations. It should be. The United States has for many statesmen would be taxed if caught by surprise by an Asian crisis. years avoided coming to grips with problems that will be painful Avoiding just such a surprise means questioning the three to solve. The incoming administration will have to adopt and, main assumptions that U.S. policymakers have held for decades crucially, hold to a strategy that makes sense for 2017, not 2007 about Asia and our relationship to it: that Asia will inexorably or 1997. If it does, Beijing can be pushed away from some of its anti-competitive practices, and President Trump can fulfill Mr. Auslin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of a key promise to make trade and investment with China work The End of the Asian Century: War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the better for America. World’s Most Dynamic Region.

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continue to rise economically, that our network of alliances region. In the weeks after his election, however, Trump spoke will endure unchanged, and that the likelihood of a shooting with the leaders of Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea war will remain low. and met with Japan’s prime minister in New York. By the end of Trump’s first year in office, he may discover just how important these alliances are. In fact, the Trump TART with economics, the one area where nearly every- national-security team may find they have only one fully reli- one has assumed that Asia remains largely bulletproof. able ally in Asia, Japan. There may be sluggards, such as Japan, but overall, the Just weeks after speaking with Trump, South Korea’s presi- Spresumption that Asia will remain the world’s most dynamic dent, Park Geun-hye, was impeached over a bribery scandal. She growth region continues to guide the thinking of investors, is almost certain to be removed from office and it is highly likely traders, and U.S. officials. The reality is different, as China that the country’s left-wing parties will win the next election. glides toward stagnation, Japan’s reform plans fail to revitalize Their policies are likely to be antithetical to Washington and may its economy, and Southeast Asia lags because of poor planning include reducing alliance cooperation (such as by canceling the and inefficiencies. new missile-defense system negotiated by the Obama adminis- Trump can’t change bad macroeconomic policy on the part of tration) and moving closer to both China and North Korea. Asian leaders, but he should be prepared for sluggish economic As for the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte has dramat- performance throughout the Pacific Rim, which will affect the ically shifted his country toward China, receiving military and global economy. He may have decided that the Trans-Pacific domestic aid from Beijing, and has already put the alliance with Partnership trade agreement was not a good deal for American Washington in a holding pattern. With the junta still firmly in workers, but Asia needs more free trade to keep growing, not less. control in Thailand, there are limits to how much cooperation China has already moved to fill the free-trade gap by aggressively the U.S. government can undertake with Bangkok. And even pushing its Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Australia, long our closest ally ideologically in the region, is using its new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to cement increasingly influenced by Chinese economic ties and has closer ties with the Philippines and other countries. announced that it will not undertake freedom-of-navigation Unless he is prepared to lose more economic ground in Asia, operations in the South China Sea. Trump should make the expansion of trade ties a priority. Be- The Obama administration’s legacy, therefore, is one of nego- ginning with a U.S.–Japan bilateral free-trade deal, Trump should tiating more extensive relationships with allies and a few other encourage Asian investment in the United States and work to partners in Asia only to have those relationships undermined by open export markets for U.S. agricultural products and high-end their domestic politics and Chinese influence-buying. services such as finance and telecommunications. He should The Trump team will find it difficult to act in Asia without also shift U.S. foreign-aid policy to focus on developing Asia’s allies. It is not merely a matter of basing rights and access for infrastructure, which is where China and Japan have put most of U.S. military forces, important as those are. It is a larger question their efforts. We need to start seriously competing again for trade of forming a community of liberal interests to ensure that no and investment. power is strong enough to dominate the region and impose its As for China, the economic ties between our two countries are own set of rules. Moreover, in times of crisis, as will inevitably important enough that Trump should concentrate not merely on occur at some point with North Korea and possibly in the South ensuring that China plays by the rules when it comes to intellec- China Sea, Washington’s entire security strategy is predicated on tual-property protection and fair play for U.S. business in China; working with allies to ensure that war does not break out. he should also focus on having a sustained dialogue with China Maintaining trustworthy, credible, and effective relations with about economic reform, bluntly stressing the dangers Beijing pre- allies therefore should be a priority for the Trump administra- sents to its own fortunes if it does not mend its ways. Meaningful tion. While President Trump does not need a Bush-style freedom reform that reduces overproduction, corrects widespread malin- agenda for Asia, we should care about the political balance in the vestment, and tackles the looming debt crisis, among other poli- region and should encourage the stability of democratic nations cies, is badly needed. An economically weak China—let alone a and the spread of liberal values. In concert with allies, we are collapsing one—would not benefit the United States. more able to influence Asian nations to adopt or further develop civil society, the rule of law, gender and ethnic equality, education, and other pillars of a liberal order. On the other hand, if HE second assumption about America’s Asia policy that illiberalism spreads, perhaps even among our allies, our influ- needs reexamining relates to our allies. Since the 1950s, ence will be diminished, correspondingly reducing our ability to Washington has maintained formal alliances with five protect our own interests or to be seen as acting in the best inter- Asia-PacificT nations: Australia (1951), the Philippines (1951), ests of the region as a whole. South Korea (1953), Thailand (1954), and Japan (1960). This “hub and spoke” model forms the foundation for a host of other relationships and allows the United States to maintain forward- RESUPPOSITIONS about the unlikelihood of armed conflict deployed military forces, especially in Japan. in Asia are the third factor that Trump’s administration During the campaign, Trump questioned the value of our glob- should question. During the campaign, Trump voiced the al alliances, including those in Asia. In musing about whether to Pdoubts of many Americans about whether we should remain ask Japan and South Korea to pay more for hosting U.S. troops committed to ensuring stability throughout the Indo-Pacific. It is or whether to let them develop their own nuclear capabilities, he a costly commitment, requiring tens of thousands of U.S. military raised doubts about America’s longstanding commitments in the personnel be based halfway around the world.

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Yet the economically dynamic, largely peaceful Asia that we take for granted today is a direct product of Washington’s decades-long military presence. No one knows how the region The Myth of the would have developed without the stability provided by U.S. forces. And given Asia’s central role in the global economy— from providing raw materials to producing goods and containing the world’s most critical trade routes—any major armed conflict Virtuous Poor would have untold effects on the global economy and could potentially cause catastrophic destruction. In defense of accountability Far from resolving their myriad disputes, however, Asian nations have maneuvered ever closer to a clash. Whether in the BY DAVID FRENCH South or East China Seas, on the Indo–Chinese border, or on the Korean peninsula, territorial disputes have resulted in an arms race throughout the region and raised the specter of conflict. ORE than at any other time in recent American history, Alternatively, countries such as the Philippines have largely the political class is obsessed with the poor and the surrendered their territorial claims in the face of Chinese pres- M working class. The fact that Donald Trump rode a sure and belligerence. white working-class wave to the Oval Office would With challenges ranging from a North Korea that is approach- be notable enough, but this political upheaval occurred just as the ing the capability to put a nuclear warhead on a long-range social-science data indicated that only half of the youngest cohort ballistic missile to China’s rapidly expanding military, the of Americans have done better economically than their parents, balance of power in Asia is shifting away from the United and—at the same time—that the death rate for white poor and States and its allies. As these nations—especially China—fur- working-class families is actually rising, with the rise driven in ther develop their capabilities, it becomes ever less likely that part by increases in suicides and drug overdoses. The sad scent of disputes will be resolved through honest, open negotiations. despair is in the air. Rather, intimidation and threat, if not the actual use of force, Let’s begin with a series of simple, indisputable facts. If a may become the norm of Asian geopolitics. person finishes his education, gets married, and stays married, In such an environment, American commitments become his chances of either becoming poor or staying poor are small. even more important. The Trump administration could decide Drop out of school, and the poverty rate skyrockets. Have chil- to experiment with a dramatic reduction in U.S. presence and dren out of wedlock and raise them in single-parent families, credibility. It would certainly be cheaper in the short run to do and the poverty rate skyrockets. There are no guarantees, of so. Such a strategy may even reveal that Beijing has no long- course. There are people who make bad choices yet still achieve term aggressive designs but simply seeks to be recognized as good outcomes. There are people who do all the right things yet the region’s unchallenged great power. still struggle. But on the whole, a simple series of good choices But that would be a risky bet. China has shown little inclina- can have an extraordinarily positive impact on a person’s eco- tion to compromise on its claims and it is already strong enough nomic prospects. to deter all Asian nations but Japan. Even attempting to under- Moreover, each of these important life accomplishments is take a reduction in U.S. security activities in Asia would intro- available on the most limited of budgets. Students have access to duce such huge uncertainty that everything from insurance rates free public education through high school. State and federal to national-defense plans would be dramatically affected. grants and private scholarship programs can extend the free edu- Instead, President Trump should endevour to regain American cations, sometimes even through college. As for marriage, mil- credibility in Asian security matters. Maintaining stability in lennia of human history teach that families can exist at any Asia requires a firm U.S. commitment to allies and partners and income level. Simple math teaches us that two incomes are better an unambiguous willingness to underwrite the open trade routes than one, and one household is cheaper than two. and the free flow of goods and people that are so vital to our own In other words, people can choose to do the culturally vital economic well-being. Announcing a buildup of the U.S. Navy is things that every serious social scientist knows will ease poverty a good first step, but the Trump administration should also make and increase social mobility. Yet, on a mass scale, people choose clear that it will not ignore China’s intimidation of other countries poorly. They drop out of school and cheat on spouses and fiancés. or the undermining of their freedom of action. More freedom- These choices take a heavy emotional toll, leading men and of-navigation operations in tense areas, the willingness to pro- women to compound their difficulties through drug and alcohol vide more defense equipment to smaller nations, and the abuse. They make terrible, destructive choice after terrible, sharing of intelligence are all ways to make sure the playing destructive choice, and they not only suffer, they inflict immense field remains level. suffering on their children and grandchildren. If these sound like old ideas, it’s because they are. They have Yet whatever you do, don’t call these choices immoral. Don’t been tried and tested over decades as the best ways to ensure express or imply that the fate of the poor rests primarily in their prosperity and stability. They are being undermined by an own hands. To do so is “poverty-shaming.” It’s “elitist.” During assertive China, but also by American failure to continue to set a recent discussion of poverty on the NPR program To the Point, the pace on trade and political leadership. Expending the time a liberal panelist responded to my recitation of these facts of life and resources to ensure that Asia remains at peace and eco- by saying, “For me, when I hear that instability in families can nomically healthy is in the long run the wisest investment we lead to poverty, I hear that’s some sort of moral failing on poor can make. people. It feels like finger-pointing as to why people are poor.”

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HE liberal argument is simple: that failing families are administration and congressional Republicans together passed largely the consequence of income inequality and poverty, far-reaching welfare reform—implementing a program designed not their cause. And it’s an argument that makes a certain to get Americans off the federal dole and onto payrolls. Clinton Tdegree of sense. Financial stress does place pressure on families. Yet boasted that he’d “end welfare as we know it,” and in some ways the rate of single parenting—even among poor and working-class he (with GOP help) made good on his pledge. populations—was far lower during past economic shocks such as Or did he? In a landmark 2013 report, NPR’s This American the Great Depression. Poverty may break up some families, but Life laid out some disturbing facts. Yes, the number of families on poverty by itself does not destroy families on the scale we see today. federal welfare programs declined significantly after welfare An intact family and good moral choices can’t inoculate you reform, from a high of 5 million in 1994 to fewer than 2 million against economic shocks such as the Great Depression or the 15 years later. At the same time, the number of low-income peo- Great Recession. There are economic tidal waves that can sweep ple receiving federal disability payments rose by almost 50 per- aside even the most seaworthy boats. And even in times of pros- cent, to almost 7 million. Between 1990 and 2011, the number of perity, bad fortune can strike any family. But there is a vast dif- children receiving federal disability payments skyrocketed from ference between the often temporary poverty that results during 300,000 to more than 1.2 million. widespread economic downturns and the persistent poverty that To quote Bloomberg’s Brendan Greeley, “Where jobs vanish, exists even during times of economic stability and growth. disability insurance is the safety net.” Talk to doctors who work Thus, the answer to the liberal panelist is clear. Yes, there are with poor Americans in the so-called disability belt—the stretch moral failings that can and do lead to poverty. Yes, we can and of America in Appalachia and the deep South that makes and col- should “point fingers” at specific and identifiable reasons for lects on disproportionate numbers of disability claims—and poverty and income inequality. At last, after decades of a failed they’ll tell you that it’s the worst form of welfare possible. cultural and political war on poverty that was premised on a fun- Why? It’s simple. To collect disability, a person has to show damentally flawed view of human nature, it’s time to tell the that something is very wrong with him, mentally or physically. A responsible politics understands that large numbers of people can and will choose short-term expedience over long-term discipline.

truth—that presumptions of human virtue are simply wrong, and That means seeking and receiving treatment, often with nar- that we cannot regard any class of Americans as inherently vir- cotics and other powerful drugs. In 1961, only 8.3 percent of tuous, including the poor. People make bad choices, and bad disability claimants were receiving payments for back pain or choices often have terrible consequences. G. K. Chesterton fa - other musculoskeletal problems. By 2015, that number had mously responded to those who questioned the Christian doc- soared to more than 30 percent. The percentage of payments for trine of original sin by arguing that man’s fallen nature was in mental illness and “developmental disability” almost doubled fact “the only part of Christian theology which can really be in the same period. proved.” Prudent people spend their lifetimes building the habits That means drugs. Lots of drugs. In rural Tennessee, in the and attitudes that guard against our inherent impulses toward center of the disability belt, local doctors speak ruefully of the expedience and self-gratification. long-term effects of “Xanatab,” their term for the toxic combi- “No one wants to be poor,” poverty activists say. “Everyone nation of Lortab (for pain) and Xanax (for anxiety) that often wants to be successful.” And that’s true enough, but that’s not the leaves patients sick and disabled for an entirely different rea- question. No one wants to be poor, but few kids want to do their son—drug addiction. homework. Lots of people want sex without responsibility. And In other words, people are actively pursuing disability pay- when faced with the choice between the short-term escape of a ments and using categories of ailments with highly subjective drug or a drink and the long-term battle to face down stress or diagnoses to secure them. Fraud is rampant, doctor-shopping is anxiety, huge numbers of people choose the chemical response. common, and lawyers rake in piles of cash by taking disability It’s the lifetime accumulation of those small decisions (for your- cases in bulk. The diagnosis and compensation structures are so self and for your children) that makes the big choice—between well known that claimants will often coach other claimants on success and failure, between poverty and comfort. how to describe their symptoms in a way calculated to receive A wise culture repeats this truth endlessly, and the well- payment. Real sicknesses are exaggerated, pain is magnified, meaning rich don’t sugarcoat this reality for the struggling poor. and endurance and grit are discouraged. If you fight through A responsible politics understands that large numbers of people your condition, you lose. Surrender, and you win. Perverse can and will choose short-term expedience over long-term disci- incentives abound. pline. Yet our culture is foolish and our politics irresponsible.

ET the negative cultural effects of transfer payments and ET’S take, for example, the Social Security disability other welfare programs pale in comparison with a policy system and its relationship to welfare. Confronted with that’s not often considered in debates about poverty. I’m L persistent poverty and staggering waste, the Clinton Yspeaking of the cultural cataclysm of no-fault divorce, perhaps 3 1 2col_QXP-1127940309.qxp 1/17/2017 11:55 PM Page 32

the ultimate symbol of the nation’s decision to shed traditional is not being truly kind to the poor by exempting them from the restraints in favor of the unsupported (and unsupportable) belief commands that one applies without hesitation to one’s own that human flourishing is either independent of or even limited by family and community. the nuclear family. In this way, our moral squeamishness inhibits our culture and Reformers worked assiduously to lift the cultural taboo against our politics from clearly sending a truthful message—that moral divorce and single parenting while also changing the legal system obligations and cultural responsibilities are reciprocal. In other to render a marriage less legally binding than a refrigerator war- words, while our culture has a moral obligation to do what it can ranty. The result wasn’t so much individual liberation and self- to care for the struggling children of single parents, young men actualization as it was a form of social Darwinism in which those and women have moral obligations to get married and stay mar- families and communities that retained old-school cultural norms ried. They have moral obligations to exercise enough self-restraint largely thrived and those that abandoned traditional family norms not to have children out of wedlock, and our public policies and stagnated, floundered, and began to fail. cultural messaging should repeat and reinforce those truths at This is perhaps the most vital of the points made in Charles every opportunity. Government can never be as powerful as a man Murray’s seminal work Coming Apart. He found that upper- or woman’s personal choices. Any other message creates false middle-class families tended to practice the forms of traditional hopes. Indeed, any other message is cruel. It helps trap generations American family life regardless of their political ideology, in poverty, and it misleads those with resources to believe that while poor and working-class families were fractured, again their well-meaning programs help when they actually hurt. regardless of their political ideology. Prosperous, liberal urban enclaves feature intact families and much lower rates of illegiti- macy. To borrow Murray’s formulation, they live red even as they HE foundation of responsible policy toward the poor vote blue. Conversely, many struggling working-class communi- therefore must acknowledge that education and mar- ties vote red and live blue. T riage are indispensable to economic advancement, and Anti-poverty policies and actions are doomed if their primary goal is to make a life of bad decisions more sustainable and comfortable.

Rich and poor alike are susceptible to temptation and capable that politically popular initiatives to improve education while of making catastrophic choices. It is the wise man’s recognition forsaking the now-controversial moral structures that built and that he is vulnerable that leads to the first of the countless deci- sustained marriages are doomed to create and perpetuate a self- sions that narrow and constrain his worst human impulses, both sustaining underclass. in himself and in his children. Exercise restraint and prudence The impediment to change, however, won’t be so much polit- long enough, and you can not only teach your children the same ical as cultural. By the tens of millions, Americans have lost the virtues, you can build firewalls and resources that help insure ability to make a moral argument about sex and marriage. They against the consequences of future mistakes. simply can’t bring themselves to “judge,” and often their own To see children of the rich modeling the better values of the behavior leaves them feeling hopelessly hypocritical. community is heartening, but it is expected. But to see a kid tri- Even if one moves beyond the fraught topic of sex, moral umph in spite of his family and in defiance of his social milieu is squeamishness endures. Witness, for example, the hysterical inspirational. Who can stand proudly beside the kid who worked reaction when writers such as NATIONAL REVIEW’s Kevin D. his way out of poverty, who overcame the challenges of growing Williamson have suggested that struggling working-class fami- up in broken homes, though surrounded by the most negative of lies follow the time-tested practice of moving to find new jobs. examples? Harvard’s halls are full of wealthy young adults who The temptation to prove that one is sympathetic to the poor—or simply don’t know their core character. They don’t know what somehow more in touch and less elitist—by telling people what they’re truly made of. They’ve lived lives with the worst and they want to hear is irresistible to conservatives and liberals alike. most destructive choices taken off the table by parents and by Millennia of human experience teach us there is no easy local cultures that constantly press them toward discipline, re - answer to poverty. Indeed, there is likely no final answer at all. straint, and achievement. Experience also teaches us that we harm poor Americans when And it’s a good thing, too. If they hadn’t been constrained, then we treat them as if their choices were beyond moral judgment. these same lives would be different indeed—full of conflict, Anti-poverty policies and actions are doomed if their primary strife, infidelity, crime, and abuse. How do we know? Because goal is to make a life of bad decisions more sustainable and com- that’s how human beings tend to live in the absence of moral fortable. It has a chance to succeed if it presumes that poor guidance and outside of healthy communities. Americans are just like everyone else—flawed and prone to sin The moral imperative to care for the poor is eternal. One can’t and short-sightedness. read the words of Christ, the apostles, or the prophets without Rather than tell the lie of the “virtuous poor,” let’s grant our plainly seeing the divine command to care for the “least of these.” nation’s struggling citizens the dignity they deserve. They are But that same scripture’s moral commands regarding honesty, moral actors capable of making moral choices. Any other mes- fidelity, and sexual morality apply to rich and poor alike, and one sage sustains human misery.

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Athwart BY JAMES LILEKS Plumb Crazy

FTER Trump was elected I curled up in a small rent, and I’m, like, is this feudal times where I do the ball of fear. For days. Didn’t leave my apart- laird’s bidding? And do you know how problematic gen- ment. I mean literally curled up. I spent 72 dered plumbing part-names are? Did we not have a con- A hours looking at my knees. And I was think- versation about how triggering it is to write out the rent ing, like, these knees are like America, you know? There’s check and be forced to remind me how private property a right knee and a left knee, and once upon a time they had is still, you know, a thing? And how we set up with- to work together to move forward, but now it’s like, the drawals from my trust fund so I didn’t get rashes around right knee is in charge! We will hop now? Hop towards a the first of the month? future where women are put in jail for thinking they can And so I let the plumber in. He’s big, with tools, and have birth control? facial hair you can tell is not intended ironically at all, And I was like, thinking about all my relatives who and he is wearing, swear to God I am not making this up, probably voted for Trump because they’re, you know, old? a Red. Cap. And so they probably vote like old people who are afraid And I think, well, I am a dead man. And I’m suddenly Muslims will take away bacon at Denny’s or something, ashamed at that thought. Because I have identified as which is ludicrous, although if you read gender-fluid lately? And I’m surprised that piece in Slate about the Pork- that’s what I thought. I would like to Industrial Complex and how the runoff After Trump think I would say, oh, I’m a dead gender- from the “farms” is polluting the ground- flex hominid or maybe we are dead but water, maybe a ban would be okay and I was elected I no, I go right for the butch. would sign the petition to help vegan- curled up in a And to be honest his red cap said Muslim-eco intersectional awareness. Jack son Plumbing, in gold braid, very And anyway I was thinking, my rela- small ball of vintage, but hello, you can’t wear a red tives all have right knees, and when cap without knowing how it’s going to Trump was elected, I’ll bet their right leg fear. For days. affect people. just shot out straight, like Dr. Strangelove Didn’t leave And so he goes to the bathroom and at the end of Dr. Strangelove, you know, there’s clanking and grunting and flush- he says Mine Furrier! I can hop again! I my apartment. ing, whatever they do. I go to the win- c an’t even call my parents because of the dow and look out to see if his truck is election. They might say something like, I mean literally outside. Maybe it has bumper stickers you know, “How are you?” and I’d be, that will warn me what he’s all about. like, I haven’t had a solid bowel move- curled up. There’s a truck! It has a sticker! It says ment for three days? Because Aunt Dot is all Hitler-happy ROME WASN’T BUILT IN A DAY—BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T now? She lives in Texas. Or Oklahoma. One of those pick- USE UNION WORKERS. up states. And my heart is in my throat now. Rome, militarism, And so I was just curled in a ball until I realized, I have Caesar, gladiators. Fascism, right? I start hyperventilating to eat. We must resist and you can’t resist if you’re hungry. and I haven’t done that since 2012 when it took them until And so I get up, and look out the window, and it’s like, nor- 8 o’clock to call the election for Obama, and I go for a mal. Seriously. People are walking down the street, cars plastic bag to breathe in but remember the city banned are going up and down killing the earth, there’s even birds them because of the planet and so I take a reusable Trader singing. I know, right? It’s so surreal. Like nothing hap- Joe’s bag and put it over my head and try to get my breath- pened. You see someone who looks undocumented and ing, you know, settled out. you’re, like, hello, why aren’t you burning a mattress in And he comes out of the bathroom and says “Okay, it’s protest? Do you not know? fixed—hey, are you okay?” And I say don’t hurt me. Just And then there was a knock at the doo r. I froze. I literally go. And I say it as fierce as I can because, you know, I froze. So soon? So fast? When Trump won I erased all my have the bag, so you have to project. I hear the door click tweets about jailing climate deniers, but of course they’d shut and make myself count to 100 because he could still seen them. They’d been planning this for years. be there. “Plumber,” said a voice. “Landlord said you had a run- And when I take the bag off my head the air is incredibly ning toilet.” sweet, and suddenly I think, you know, we can win. We And my mind races because yes yes, I had complained don’t have to die. We don’t have to give in to fascism. So about that. The landlord said if I wanted to install a new I am calling for everyone to wear a reusable bag over their ballcock and send him the receipt he’d take it off my head this month as a sign of resistance. And you might want to wash it out first because mine was Mr. Lileks blogs at www.lileks.com. smelly and I got sick. Curled up in a ball. For days.

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The Long View BY ROB LONG

didn’t make me feel anything ex - I don’t have any problems, Kitty, cept pity for the boys and girls who except THAT I AM NOT A STAR!!!!! unlike me don’t care if their school clothes become soiled or unkempt during games. What I do not under- SATURDAY stand is why many of the girls in Dear Kitty: From the Archives of the our class do not see me as a really Today I went to the movies (alone, Donald J. Trump terrific guy to go on dates with, natch!) and saw the actress Kim Presidential Library: especially since I have someone to Novak in a movie called “Vertigo” drive us around and I’m told I have and when the movie was over I paid delicate feet. the boy from my class who was The Collected Diaries of Today after school I decided to working as the usher (sad!) a quarter Donald J. Trump, dress up in my Singing Cowboy cos- to let me keep watching it over and tume and sit in the closet and strum over again until it was time to go Chapter 7: the guitar, which I guess irritated home and pretend I had been play- “Growth Spurt” Dad because he pulled me out of ing sports all day. When I got home there and made me scrub the rouge I sat quietly in my bedroom and circles from my cheeks and sit down thought about Kim Novak a lot and THURSDAY and talk about what I wanted to be wondered if she would ever become Dear Kitty: when I grew up, which I told him my wife when I’m old enough for This morning I stood very tall and but he only got madder and madder Dad to let me get married and then I straight against the wall while Dad at me because I didn’t know there thought about Kim Novak some measured my height and drew a line was a “better” way to say “chorus more but I am not going to write any to mark my progress. My height has boy on Broadway.” more about that. been a disappointment to him, I Kitty! I just want to be a star! I know—mostly because after he want to see my name in lights on the draws the line on the wall he says, Great White Way! (My favorite MONDAY “Once again, your height is a disap- kind of Way!) Dear Kitty: pointment to me”—but this time he What Dad doesn’t understand is Today I made some decisions suggested that we also start measur- that I’m not like him. I don’t want to about my life, which do not include ing the growth of my middle-range, build ugly little squat buildings with Kim Novak due to her age and rela- what Dad calls my “lady hips,” and no pizzazz! I need more than that! tively small bust. Another long con- Kitty, let me be honest with you, versation with Dad in which he once those words hurt. They hurt so much again refused to either pay for dance I hid in my room eating slices of FRIDAY lessons or allow me to turn the base- plain white bread (my favorite!!!) Dear Kitty: ment into an Equity-waiver theater. I and reading whatever Nancy Drew If you take two dimes and HATE HIM SO MUCH KITTY! book I could get my hands on and Scotch-tape them to the bottom of At school I discovered that some- NO KITTY Nancy Drew isn’t JUST nice party shoes, you end up with one had written my name on the FOR GIRLS no matter what the so- a pretty good pair of homemade wall of the downstairs boys’ bath- called experts say. tap shoes. room and at first I was furious with Oh, Kitty! One day I’ll be tall and If Dad won’t buy me the shoes, shame and mortification until I powerful and have a proportionally I’ll make them myself! realized that until that moment I distributed amount of weight, not I spent Friday night teaching didn’t know that anyone knew me, just directly above and below where myself some elemental tap-dance or noticed me, or that anyone would my belt cinches. And then I can combinations until it was time for bother to write my name n ext to a read whatever I want and I’ll be a me to pretend to go to the birthday picture of what was supposed to be famous star! party of a dopey classmate who me with pig-like facial features. didn’t actually invite me to his stu- Mean! But still. If a lot of people pid party but if I told my parents I know me, does it matter if they MONDAY wasn’t invited they would turn it all think I’m a fat lonely boy? Is it Dear Kitty: into a big deal and I’d have to go see enough that I’m well-known? AM I Wow. Once again I was the last that old Jewish man in the city again ALREADY A STAR? one chosen for recess games, which and tell him my problems. I need to ponder this, Kitty.

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toward judicial deference to agency of special-interest politics or progres- Pangloss judgments. This is a trend Vermeule sive ideology, Vermeule argues that it believes will continue, for “the long arc was a consequence of the law’s efforts of the law has bent steadily toward def- to work itself pure: The nature of legal And the erence” and there is no going back. reasoning creates a “constant pressure” Courts may establish de facto nation- toward consistency and coherence, and Bureaucrats al policy on symbolic social issues, in the context of administrative law, such as gay marriage or free expres- this constant pressure feeds ever JONATHAN H. ADLER sion, but administrative law is where greater deference as judges, ever more the real action is, because the adminis- “aware of the limits of their own trative state permeates contemporary knowledge, . . . build deference into existence. Although regulatory initia- law itself.” tives are routinely challenged in court, Vermeule is certainly correct that judicial review of them “is becoming courts are, as a general matter, far more or has become, in area after area, a high- deferential to administrative agencies ly deferential exercise that attempts than anyone could have imagined a cen- only to determine whether administra- tury ago. The requirement of agency tive agencies have clearly gone beyond rationality—that rules not be “arbitrary the outer bounds of the defensible.” and capricious”—is a “thin” require- Constitutional and other legal con- ment, not particularly demanding of straints on agency action have sub- federal agencies. Vermeule is further sided, but the administrative state did correct to note that this is owing, at Law’s Abnegation: From Law’s Empire to the not so much defeat law as law acqui- least in part, to the demands and subject Administrative State, by Adrian Vermeule esced. This is the “abnegation” of matter of modern administrative law. (Harvard, 272 pp., $39.95) Vermeule’s title, and the core of his Generalist judges lack the expertise to provocative thesis. The book presents second-guess discrete policy judg- N June 4, 2013, President a bracing and often insightful chal- ments, let alone technical or scientific Obama announced three lenge to those who believe that the determinations, of expert agencies. nominations to the U.S. modern administrative state must be Where Congress has failed to specify Court of Appeals for the tamed if American government is to the assumptions or presumptions an OD.C. Circuit, the court that hears the remain faithful to the original constitu- agency must adopt, courts have no lion’s share of legal challenges to fed- tional design. license to substitute their judgment for eral regulations. Less than six months How did this abnegation occur? As that of administrative officers to later, Senate majority leader Harry Vermeule tells it, the same arguments whom Congress has delegated such Reid (D., Nev.) invoked the “nuclear that justified the initial accommodation authority. The most courts can do is option,” ending filibusters for lower- of the administrative state at the dawn demand that agencies provide rea- court nominees and ensuring the trio’s of the New Deal justified ever greater sons—not necessarily the best reasons quick confirmation. This move creat- accommodations thereafter. Over time, or even the most persuasive reasons, ed a decisive Democratic majority on courts became ever more permissive in but merely substantive reasons demon- the court. their review of agency action—each strating the underlying rationality of Senate Democrats were eager to fill time on the margin, but with a profound the agency’s course. the D.C. Circuit bench so as to elimi- cumulative effect. Yet Vermeule goes farther than such nate a potential threat to Obama’s regu- In 1984, in Chevron v. Natural Re - observations require, urging wholesale latory legacy. Perhaps, if Harvard law sources Defense Council, a unanimous surrender to the perceived needs of the professor Adrian Vermeule is to be Supreme Court announced that, when a administrative state. By his general believed, they need not have bothered. statutory provision is silent or ambigu- rule, “agencies should be able to make In Law’s Abnegation, he argues that ous, a reviewing court must defer to policy as they see fit, unless there are judicial review of agency actions has the implementing agency’s statutory very clear reasons indeed for courts to much more bark than bite. The grand interpretation, provided the interpreta- intervene.” Traditional notions of the course of administrative law has been tion is reasonable. As most (if not all) separation of powers or due process complex regulatory statutes have some need not stand in the way. Although Mr. Adler, a contributing editor of NATIONAL ambiguity, the Chevron doctrine gave considered essential to the preservation REVIEW ONLINE, is the inaugural Johan Verheij agencies broad license to steer the ad - of liberty by some, such nostrums must Memorial Professor of Law at Case Western Reserve ministrative state. not be “idolized” and must instead “be University School of Law. His latest book is While some might argue that this traded off against other considerations Business and the Roberts Court. trend toward deference was the product and goods.” Constitutional constraints

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are not to be strictly enforced. Instead administrative apparatus freed from Supreme Court has refused to go along. they must be “optimized.” legal constraint. After all, he explains, While instructing courts to account for Indeed, in Vermeule’s telling, judges legislatures are “structurally incapable agency insights as to how specific pro- have not merely acquiesced to adminis- of supplying policy change at the nec- grams operate, it has simultaneously trative judgments; they have, in cooper- essary rates.” refused to impose procedural con- ation with the executive and the Vermeule might be right about the straints. In recent cases concerning legislature, subverted the entire consti- capacity of Congress, but he is con- wetlands regulation, for instance, a tutional structure. “The institutional structing a false dichotomy. A modern unanimous Court has made quick work scheme of 1789,” he writes, “created the regulatory bureaucracy is not the only of agency claims that regulatory bur- means of its own supersession.” Thus, available alternative to reliance upon dens could be imposed without mean- law’s abnegation is legitimate. “If the legislative reform to keep pace with a ingful judicial review. constitutional institutions, operating as changing environment. Clear and stable If Vermeule’s thesis were correct, they were set up to operate, have decid- rules delineating basic rights and re - such developments would be hard to ed that such an arrangement is both sponsibilities, against which private explain, as would the courts’ failure to valid and wise, then respect for the sep- actors may bargain, contract, and order adopt more permanent and effective aration of powers counsels approval for their affairs, are an equally plausible means of abnegation. The most effec- the arrangement.” What Congress and response to complexity and speed. Yet to tive way to abnegate would be not the executive have joined, let no judge acknowledge such a possibility would deference but disclaiming of jurisdic- put asunder. be to undermine the claimed inevitabil- tion, and yet that has not occurred. It is certainly true that the legislative ity of, and need for, the modern admin- The Supreme Court has stubbornly and executive branches cooperated to istrative state. refused to narrow standing to sue the create administrative agencies that Vermeule claims that law’s abnega- federal government, extending “spe- confound traditional notions of separation is impossible to reverse, that the cial solicitude” to suits brought by tion of powers, and that they had rea- “classical constitutional order” is “gone states. At the same time, it has whittled sons to do so. Some believed a looser beyond all hope of revival.” We might away at the realm of those cases Vermeule claims that law’s abnegation is impossible to reverse, that the ‘classical constitutional order’ is ‘gone beyond all hope of revival.’

conception of separation of powers find out soon: Several justices have deemed to raise nonjusticiable “politi- was necessary to facilitate effective expressed discontent with the culture cal questions,” thereby keeping courts administration. Others may have recog- of extreme deference. Most recently, in in the game. nized that delegating power and re - Michigan v. EPA, the Supreme Court Jurists are not the only ones to raise sponsibility over complex and fraught concluded it was unreasonable for the questions about the abnegation Ver - policy matters was a means of evading Environmental Protection Agency to meule embraces. Last year, the House political accountability. But this doesn’t consider it “appropriate” to impose of Representatives passed legislation establish that such moves were neces- new regulations on mercury emissions to overturn Chevron and limit judicial sary, let alone wise. It is hardly a new from power plants without consider- deference, in addition to measures that insight to suggest that constitutional ing the cost. Soon thereafter, a majori- would constrain adoption of new regu- actors have incentives to evade the very ty of the Court placed a hold on the latory initiatives without legislative limitations the Consti tution erects—and EPA’s Clean Power Plan, the center- approval. The House leadership has the existence of such incentives, even if piece of the Obama administration’s pledged to reenact these measures and they manifest themselves in “sustained climate-change policy. Chief Justice place them on the new president’s desk. and bipartisan action of Congress and John Roberts, for his part, has warned During his campaign, Donald Trump the president over time,” doesn’t justify of “the danger posed by the growing regularly inveighed against the harm the abandonment of traditional con- power of the administrative state.” done by an out-of-control bureaucracy straints. It certainly does not justify Sharp critics of excessive judicial def- and pledged to sign legislation that Vermeule’s Panglossian assessment of erence are also prominently featured on would bring the administrative state the status quo. Trump’s short list of potential Supreme to heel. Whether or not he thinks bet- While at times disclaiming any ap - Court nominees. ter of such commitments now that he proval of the contemporary administra- While Vermeule argues that abnega- is at the helm, his attacks on excessive tive state, Vermeule embraces the idea tion must extend not just to regulations regulation resonated with the elec- that only modern administration is but to questions of administrative torate. Powerful forces may have capable of addressing contemporary process—specifically, What process is spurred law’s abnegation. Perhaps problems: “The increasing rate of change due to those who are subject to the vicis- equally powerful forces will yet pro- in the policy environment” demands an situdes of the administrative state?—the duce a restoration.

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term economic factor in raising living the decades-long downshift in economic Prospects standards. Output per worker in the growth. Whatever the exact numbers, no largest, richest economies grew at nearly one doubts that slower growth, less 5 percent annually from 1959 through equitably enjoyed, has produced a two- For Growth 1973, both raising worker incomes and speed society, as documented in recent financing the dramatic expansion of the books such as Coming Apart, by Charles JAMES PETHOKOUKIS welfare state. No wonder Richard Nixon Murray, and The Fractured Republic, declared the U.S. economy so strong “it by Yuval Levin. The tide is not rising as would take a genius to wreck it.” fast as it used to, and more boats are Then, all of a sudden, the Golden Age of anchored to the bottom. fast productivity growth and quickly ris- Another book that inevitably comes to ing incomes stopped and never quite mind as one reads Levinson’s is The Rise restarted, both here and in other advanced and Fall of American Growth, by Robert economies. Levinson runs through many Gordon, frequently cited as perhaps the of the theories as to why—including soar- best economics book of 2016. Where ing oil prices, the shift to a service econo- Levinson focuses on the second half of my, and environmental regulations—but the 20th century and the transition from finds them inadequate to explain “the pro- the Golden Age to the Long Slump, Gor - ductivity bust afflicting countries with don documents the “special century” of An Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar vastly different economies and divergent fast growth from 1870 to 1970 and why it Boom and the Return of the Ordinary Economy, approaches to economic policy.” But per- might never return. Where Levinson by Marc Levinson (Basic, 336 pp., $27.99) haps the best explanation is really nothing highlights the futile attempts of policy- more than that today’s “new normal” is makers to contend with the productivity ONALD TRUMP’S “Make really the natural state of things. As the slowdown, Gordon demonstrates how America Great Again” slo- years and decades pass, the powerful post- fast growth in the past was generated by gan has huge licensing war expansion more and more seems like significant, but unrepeatable, innovations, potential. It could, with some an unrepeatable phenomenon. And it is such as electrification, public sanitation, Dobvious tweaks, go global: “Make France this story of the coming and passing of that and the internal-combustion engine. Great Again,” “Make Japan Great long boom—and apparently the inability Of course, neither Gordon nor Levinson Again,” and so on. MAGA is a punchy of politicians to do much about resuscitat- dismisses the possibility of another political catchphrase, to be sure. It cer- ing it—that Levinson crisply tells: Golden Age. Productivity booms are tainly has more inspirational oomph than unpredictable: There was a brief one from Hillary Clinton’s “Stronger Together.” In Japan, North America, and much of the mid 1990s through the early 2000s, Europe and Latin America, the warmth But more than that, MAGA’s nostal- after years in which economists wondered of prosperity was replaced by cold inse- gia has persuasive power because it is curity. . . . It was an age of anxiety, not an when computerization would show up in based on a real economic phenomenon era of boundless optimism. . . . Neither the numbers. But judging by current sta- experienced by citizens of all advanced market-oriented policies, such as those tistics, there is little reason to think one is economies, one documented by former championed by Margaret Thatcher and nigh. Productivity growth has nearly flat- Economist journalist Marc Levinson in Ronald Reagan, nor statist reforms, such lined since the Great Recession ended. his new book. The immediate post-war as those initially undertaken by François And Levinson doubts that any politician, decades—the years 1948 through 1973, Mitterrand, have proven able to alter that including Donald Trump, knows the to be precise—saw the world economy reality. In Japan and Korea, massive secret formula for revivification. Citing boom as never before. This “Golden Age,” state-guided investment booms . . . research that found that episodes of high Levinson writes, “blossomed” from “a brought explosive economic growth fol- growth have little in common, Levinson lowed by rapid improvement in living world in ruin” to one of unimagined pros- writes, “Hope that wise, well-considered standards—again, for a while. But those perity—hardly the continuation of global economies, too, eventually fell from measures will propel an economy to a depression expected by many economists. orbit, their political leaders no longer higher growth trajectory is eternal, but Some of that hypergrowth can be able to deliver miracles. there are no foolproof recipes.” explained by devastated nations’ need to At this point, Republicans and other rebuild after World War II. But it was Indeed, one could plausibly trace the conservative readers might wonder more than that: In the United States, with current upwelling of populist politics to whether Levinson somehow missed the an industrial capacity untouched by the that 1970s turning point. New research 1980s and 1990s, the era commonly iden- global conflagration, overall economic finds that only half of young adults today tified as the Long Boom, in which the output doubled. Even more impressive are making more than their parents were Reagan Revolution ended the Carter-era were the gains in output per worker, or at a similar age. Back in the early 1970s, malaise and launched the greatest peace- productivity, the most important long- almost of all them—92 percent—were. time economic expansion in American Now one can reasonably dispute the history. But Morning in America never Mr. Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the severity of the decline, but that there has came, Levinson writes: “Reagan infused American Enterprise Institute and a contributor to been one seems correct. And a good the United States with a new optimism CNBC. chunk of that decline can be blamed on about the future, a welcome change after

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years of despair. But what the Reagan Other economists note, for instance, that Revolution could not do was restore the the official stats ignore welfare gains from Dark broad improvement in living standards rising life expectancy, which could equal that Americans expected. . . . Supply-side a full percentage point a year. The limits economics proved to be a bust.” of our current ability to fully and com- Intellect Harsh, but not wholly inaccurate, if pletely measure the state of productivity BRIAN C. ANDERSON you judge supply-siders by their own growth has led Goldman Sachs econo- claims. Yes, the economy surged after the mists to argue that “confident pronounce- 1981–82 recession, although one might ments that the standard of living is expect just such a high bounce given the growing much more slowly than in the severity of the downturn and the effect of past should be taken with a grain of salt.” easier monetary policy from the Fed. A Moreover, Levinson seems implicitly recent Brookings Institution literature to accept Gordon’s hand-wave dismissal review noted a 1989 analysis by Martin of recent innovations as narrow—con- Feldstein and Doug Elmendorf that fined to communications, information, found that the 1981 tax cuts “had virtu- and entertainment. Would you rather ally no net impact on economic growth.” have indoor plumbing or a smartphone? It is important to recall that the core the- Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is one of sis of the supply-siders was not just that many techies who find that economic Existentialism and Excess: The Life and tax cuts would stimulate growth—many perspective limited: Times of Jean-Paul Sartre, by Gary Cox demand-side Keynesians thought much (Bloomsbury, 352 pp., $29.95) the same—but that lower marginal tax The digital revolution affects the very rates on productive activity would result mechanism of the marketplace. How HILOSOPHER, novelist and in rising productivity. buyers and sellers find each other, how short-story writer, man of the It didn’t happen. Levinson quotes bud- we amass information, how we can cre- theater, left-wing political ac - ate models to simulate things before geteer bad boy David Stockman from tivist—Jean-Paul Sartre was building them, how scientists collabo- 1986: “The fundamentals I look at are not the very model of the 20th-century pub- rate across continents, how we learn new P a miracle. Our savings rate is the lowest in things—all of this has changed dramati- lic intellectual. By the time of his death modern times. Last year our productivity cally thanks to digital innovation. Yes, in 1980, “the pope of existentialism” had growth was flat, and our whole theory was household appliances look pretty much published millions upon millions of that we were going to cause an explosion the same now as they did in 1970, but words, won (and turned down) a Nobel of productivity and rising real incomes.” that doesn’t mean our lives in 2070 prize, and become such a famed figure Productivity growth remained quiescent won’t be profoundly different. that 50,000 mourners followed his cas- for another decade, surged during the ket to witness his burial in Paris’s Internet boom, and then faded again. One might also mention the positive Montparnasse cemetery. Or did it? To fully embrace the “end of impact of globalization in raising living Yet what is Sartre’s legacy? Does any- fast growth” thesis from Gordon and standards across Asia and modernizing one—should anyone—read him today? Levinson means relying on government- its economies—which resulted in the In his brisk, accessible biography, Gary generated GDP and productivity statis- growing pool of scientists with access to Cox tries to make the case that Sartre’s tics. But there is currently an active ever better tools for discovery. The chal- best work provides deep insight into the debate among economists and Silicon lenge for policymakers is to ensure the human condition. One could also make Valley technologists about whether these best possible ecology for converting dis- the case—Cox doesn’t—that his worst common economic metrics are as accu- covery into innovations that are broadly work exemplifies the fanaticism of the rate and useful in today’s increasingly beneficial. This means, among other leftist mind at its most extreme. digital economy as they were when the things, fixing regulations that hamper Sartre was born in 1905 in Paris to a American economy was built around startups and making it cheaper to live in tubercular naval officer, Jean-Baptiste, producing commodities such as wheat high-productivity cities such as New who would die the next year, and a and steel. Not only might they miss hard- York and San Francisco. Of course, bored bourgeois mother, Anne-Marie to-measure qualitative improvements in because of the mere fact of demographic Schweitzer, a relative of the famed an economy of which information tech- limits on labor-force growth—the retire- Christian missionary Albert Schweitzer. nology is a bigger and bigger piece; they ment of the Baby Boom generation and Sartre didn’t remember his father. “Jean- also fail to capture the benefits of free the decline in the growth of the working- Baptiste had denied me the pleasure of digital content to consumers. age population—better policy will not meeting him,” he observed in his 1963 And even Gordon concedes that tradi- bring back the higher-GDP days of the autobiography, Words. “Even today, I am tional economic measures can be prob- Golden Age. But there is reason to be amazed how little I know about him.” lematic. For instance, as economist Diane hopeful that even if the gloomy stats are Coyle has noted, we can easily measure correct, we have it within our means to Mr. Anderson is the editor of City Journal and the the caloric content of the American diet or push farther and faster the technological author of Democratic Capitalism and Its the price of food, but what about the value frontier, and to help create another extra- Discontents, Against the Obamanet, and of the improved variety of food available? ordinary time. other books.

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Yet he had no interest in finding out it is also free, as is he. One of Sartre’s— observes, “but neither was he a coward.” more. Indeed, Sartre relished the lack of and existentialism’s—main themes is Politicized, Sartre henceforth committed competition for his mother’s affections. born: Man is responsible for his actions, himself to fighting a fascist resurgence After her husband’s death, Anne-Marie however much he wants to deny it. No and determined that radical socialism was returned to live in her parents’ home in one has an essence; we make ourselves the only way to do that. suburban Paris, where Sartre found him- through our various projects. As the novel Thus began Sartre’s long years as a self treated like a little prince, an idyll ends, Roquentin listens to the jazz num- celebrity apologist for totalitarianism. that ended only with his mother’s remar- ber “Some of These Days” on a café He made his first trip to the Soviet riage to an engineer, Joseph Mancy, in jukebox, and imagines the songwriter Union during the early 1950s; Stalinoid 1917. Sartre abominated his stepfather: justifying his existence through his cre- commissars showed him the approved “Engineer” would become a vicious in - ative act. In a revelation, Roquentin real- version of their socialist utopia and got sult in the Sartrean lexicon. When izes that he, too, could give meaning to him very drunk on vodka. Back in Mancy died, Sartre moved his mother life by creating, and he decides to write a France from his visit—a Gallic Walter into his apartment, and they would live novel. Art can save us, or so the early Duranty—he proclaimed that the citizen together for much of his adult life. Sartre seemed to think. The book caused a of the USSR enjoyed greater “freedom Anne-Marie’s father, Charles, owned sensation, establishing Sartre as a Parisian to criticize” than his bourgeois Western a large library of classic books, and the fixture, and it remains a classic of world counterparts. He knew this was ridicu- precocious boy, encouraged by his literature, rivaled only by Albert Camus’s lous, as he later admitted. But to speak grandfather, got lost in them, “exploring The Stranger in the existentialist canon. honestly would have given the hated words as other children explore wood- Sartre would publish a few more nov- capitalists a propaganda victory, and lands, finding ideas more real than ob - els, as well as short stories and plays, in that couldn’t be countenanced. Later, jects,” as Cox puts it. Sartre devoured the decades ahead, including 1944’s he’d pen a fawning series of pieces on Corneille and Flaubert and other liter- grim No Exit, where the immortal exis- Fidel Castro, and later still, in a Maoist ary giants, but also—on the sly, since tentialist line “Hell—is other people” is phase, hawk revolutionary bulletins on Charles disapproved—comic-book ad - ventures that his mother bought for him. Sartre’s juvenile writings abounded with Sartre’s words, pouring forth in a damsels in distress and heroes braving terrors to rescue them. kind of logorrhea, got sloppier and His brilliance evident to all, Sartre more jargon-ridden. gained admission in 1924 to the École Normale Supérieure, France’s most pres- uttered by one of the three doomed char- Parisian street corners. He moved far- tigious school for the humanities. It was acters. But he increasingly turned his ther left as he aged. there that he met Simone de Beauvoir, attention to philosophy, criticism, and Sartre became infatuated with violence. who became his lifelong philosophical politics. His great theoretical work, Being Trying to wed existentialism and Marx - soulmate, “necessary” (as opposed to and Nothingness appeared in 1943, ism, he published in 1960 a massive “contingent”) lover, and traveling drawing on Nietzsche, German phenom- defense of political terror, The Critique of companion, as well as Ray mond Aron, enology, and Henri Bergson to explore Dialectical Reason, and an introduction who would be first a friend and then a the complex and fraught dynamics of to black psychiatrist Frantz Fanon’s anti- formidable critic of his leftist politics. human interaction with others and with colonial polemic The Wretched of the Sartre failed on his first try to pass the the world—again with man’s radical Earth that justifies race murder even more required exams to receive his teaching freedom always in sight. Cox calls it “the enthusiastically than did Fanon himself. license—his responses were too origi- bible of existentialism.” Meanwhile, he regularly denounced the nal, Cox says—but finished first on the It was World War II that jolted Sartre “rabid” United States as the embodiment second attempt, in June 1929. He spent into political engagement. After serving of evil and refused to give bourgeois soci- the next several years teaching high in a French meteorological division—his ety the least credit. school in Le Havre, a dreary seaport in mostly blind left eye kept him from active Sartre’s words, pouring forth in a kind northwestern France. fighting—he was taken prisoner by Ger- of logorrhea, got sloppier and more Sartre’s literary career ignited in man troops and packed off to a POW jargon-ridden. At its best—Nausea, Be - 1938, as his first novel, Nausea, gave camp, where for the first time he discov- ing and Nothingness, No Exit and some voice to what would soon be known as ered humanity in all of its wild, and often of the other plays, the autobiography— “existentialism.” Nausea’s hero, An - rough, variety. His captors soon released Sartre’s writing dazzled; one can under- toine Roquentin, wanders the streets of him, however, deeming him harmless. stand why the Nobel committee honored Bouville—“mudtown”—sickened by the Returning to Nazi-occupied Paris, he him in 1964 (he declined to accept the absurdity of life. “Every existing thing is furtively supported resistance efforts, prize because he feared it would make born without reason, prolongs itself out of staged theatrical performances under him a living monument). The later Sartre weakness, and dies by chance,” he rumi- the eye of German censors, taught phi- is often unreadable, and remains largely nates morosely. He struggles to find a losophy, and kept writing. Cox rightly unread today, though his unfinished, mul- reason to stay alive. Yet if the universe is dismisses charges that Sartre was a col- tivolume psychobiography of Flaubert, random, Roquentin eventually concludes, laborator. “He was not the bravest,” Cox The Family Idiot, has its defenders.

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email protected] ?D;DGHAJ8@EGEJI?DG4 7DFIJ CJ 7H< DF;JHGJHJ=E:8>GIC LUXURY AFFORDABLE STATEROOMS TO MATCH EVERY TASTE & BUDGET H=CEBBJ ECG@ICF =AHBBJ DFJ 1EFFI4 ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !!! GHA<6J C?IC DEFB6J $@DAIJBD84 !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! EFIJ E9J CJ 8>5 8DF;JCJ9H2ECDGI ! ! ! !! ! ! ! A>F=@J9H2E>CDGIBJDF =E=3GHDA-J >F7DF? ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! G@IJ EA?IFJ (DEF GEJ G@IJ BE>F?BJ E9 ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! DB@J F)J 1@D8B- :>BD=DHFBJ DFJ G@I 0GIH3JHF?J*AIJ&DI- 1@HCGJ .EE:6J 1@D=3IFJ /D33H *GGIF?J HJ BGHC %HBHAHJECJ+HF;ICB 8HCGA;IJDFJ%I:8@DB GCEFE:ICJ9CE:JG@I BGI-J G@I AIH?DF;J7DFI:H34 0:E3I@E>BI6J ICBJ 9CE:J HCE>F? 1IAI5CHGIJ 7DG@J H G@IJ7ECA?JHF?JI'4 5EGGAIJE9J1@HGIH> 8ICGJ 0E::IADICB Ocean View/Single Only 178 square feet, queen- Inside Stateroom 159 square feet, two lower beds (H9DGIJ .EG@B=@DA? 9ECJ @EBGJ G>GECI? sized bed, satellite TV w/ film and music channels, convertible to one queen-sized bed, flat panel TV, 9CE:J >IIFJ%HC< 7DFIJGHBGDF;BJHF? refrigerator, shower, safe; dining in Britannia Grill. shower, safe; dining in Britannia Grill )BJ9H:E>BACIB6J &I4 Category KB $4,484 pp Category IC DO: $2,577 pp | Single: $3,916 7DFIJ =IAAHC6J C>BIJ G@IJ :ECI HAAJ DFJ AE2IJ 7DG@ G@HFJ-J5EE3B G@IJ BD;FHG>CI DFJ G@IJ AHC;IBGJ AD4 ?IBBICGJ /EF3H 5CHCBBIJ7DG@ E>)CIJB>CIJGEJ9DF? "'GCHJ!DC;DFJAD2I EFIJE9JG@EBIJGDGAIB DAJ D=IJ =CIH:J DF )2IJ 5IIF /@IJ !ICHF?H@6 :IHFDF;J GEJ CIH?6 /H3IJG@IJ%HC4 $IHCJ C GDFDJ%D'EAE;DF BEJ J =HFJ :H3I :HB3J HF?J CIAD2I DGJ9ECJCJ9CDIF?B G@IJ;CHF?JEA?J?HICH?IJ +HAA6 beds convertible to queen-sized bed, shower, sitting lower beds convertible to queen-sized bed, shower, 7@DABGJ BH2E>CDF; $HG=@J G@I area, flat-panel TV, refrigerator, floor-to-ceiling win- private balcony, flat-panel TV, refrigerator, floor-to- HFJH;I?J H8EAIEF BIFBHGDEFHA dows, safe; dining in Britannia Grill ceiling windows, safe; dining in Britannia Grill 1E;FH=J DF BDF;ICBJ HF? Category EF DO: $3,227 pp | Single: $4,898 Category BU DO: $4,189 pp | Single: $6084 1@>C=@DAA)BJ 1D;HC ?HF=ICBJ 8IC9EC: (E>F;I6J EA4 .@CJ E=IHF D;@GJ DFJ G@IJ I'4 =E>CBIJ HBJ GCH2H;HFGJ .E:D4 1E>CGJ /@IHGCI6 FHGI?J :H8BJ HF? #IAD;@GJDFJE>C IF,EB :>BD=HAJ B@E7- =HFH8BJDFJG@IJIA4 +CEH?7HA;IJDFJG@IJ!I>2I /H3IJ =@HJ =@H- 1AD=>EGJ 1@H:4 (HGDFJECJADFIJ?HF=4 Princess Suite w/ Verandah 381 square feet, queen- Queen’s Suite w/ Verandah 560 square feet, king- 8H;FIJ *9GICFEEF DF;J=AHBBIBJGH>;@G sized bed, whirlpool bath & shower, large sitting sized bed, whirlpool bath & shower, large sitting /IHJDFJG@IJ1@H:4 5=GECB6 %D'J CJ 8HAIGGI & DVD player, mini-bar, refrigerator, safe; exclusive flat panel TV & DVD player, mini-bar, refrigerator, #IAD;@GJ DFJ H HF?J?DB=E2ICJC 8IC9EC:HF=IJ E9 dining in Princess Grill safe; exclusive dining in Queens Grill DFFICJ HCGDBGJ 5< &CD?IJ HF?J &CI,>4 Category P1 DO: $6,610 pp | Single: $11,584 Category Q5 DO: $8,510 pp | Single: $14,947 ,EDFDF;J HJ 7HGIC4 ?D=IJ DFJ G@IJ .ECJ 8HDFGDF; 1E>CGJ/@IHGCI6J EDFJCJ9CDIF?BJ9ECJHJCE>BDF;JI2IFDF;JE9J3HCHE3IJDF =AHBB6J 0HA>GIJ G@IJ B>FJ HF?J >F7DF?J DFJ EFIJ E9J G@IJ B@D8)BJ CIAH'DF; G@IJEA?IFJ(DEFJ8>56J EDFJG@IJ@HG4:H3DF;J=AHBBJHF?J8HCH?IJCJBD;4 7@DCA8EEAB6J (EE3J9EC7HC?J@IH?JGEJ/@IJ(EE3E>G-JHFJE5BIC2HGDEFJHCIH FHG>[email protected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magazine ad application 2017_carribian 2p+application_jack.qxd 1/17/2017 11:35 AM Page 1

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BOOKS, ARTS & MANNERS

Cox sketches his subject’s character, sweeping through the eastern Mediter - warts and all. Sartre was a lifelong “speed True ranean, and fought them at the great freak,” he notes, popping Corydrane pills Catholic victory of Lepanto. On his way like M&Ms to fuel 20-hour writing back to Spain, he was captured by Muslim binges. At times, he’d so overstimulate Inventions pirates based in Algiers. Poor Christian himself that he’d find himself pacing captives worked themselves to death as RICHARD BROOKHISER manically in Beauvoir’ s apartment, his galley slaves; richer ones were held for arms flailing about crazily, his talk tor- ransom. After five years and four unsuc- rential, his tongue moving so rapidly cessful escape attempts, Cervantes’s fam- that its skin started to tear. The only way ily managed to buy his freedom. He spent he could sleep on such occasions was to the rest of his days in Spain laboring to take a “near overdose” of sleeping pills, support himself, his sisters, his wife, and pummeling him into a dreamless black. an illegitimate daughter on his earnings as He smoked and drank enough for three a writer of plays, romances, and stories, men. His physical decline in the 1970s and as a tax collector and commissary was swift: By the time of his death in agent for the government. None of these 1980, he was mostly blind and debilitat- occupations earned him much, and his ed by strokes. The Man Who Invented Fiction: How Cervantes official jobs brought him two excommuni- Sartre wasn’t always kind to Beauvoir, Ushered In the Modern World, by William cations (reversed on appeal) for daring to his necessary love. A bevy of attractive Egginton (Bloomsbury, 272 pp., $27) tax church land, and a prison sentence young women surrounded him, drawn after he unwisely deposited his returns by his ferocious intellect and fame, and AROLD BLOOM once wrote with a crooked banker. It was in the royal he seemingly had sex with them all. In that Montaigne created one prison in Seville that he began his story of 1965, in a Woody Allen–in–reverse exer- character (himself), Cer van - a country gentleman obsessed with books cise in perversity, he adopted his latest tes created two (Don Quixote of chivalry. lover, a Jewish Algerian named Arlette andH Sancho Panza), and Shakespeare cre- How many writers have had such a Elkaïm, then 30, and made her sole heir ated dozens and dozens. That looks like CV? Imagine Henry James fighting at and executor of his estate—a final slight putting Shakespeare way out in front, but Gettysburg, living among the Sioux, and of Beauvoir. He tended to get along with Cervantes’s two are remarkably vital and doing time in the Tombs. For similar men only if they were his inferiors, durable. Dr. Johnson said Don Quixote vicissitudes you have to look beyond breaking nastily and publicly with such was one of only three books he ever the literary warriors—Xenophon, onetime friends and allies as Aron, wished were longer. Churchill—to the literary rascals— Camus, and Maurice Merleau-Ponty William Egginton, a professor at Johns Cellini, Casanova. And who among the when they dared to question the Sartrean Hopkins, has written a book on Cervantes rascals was also heroic? line. Yet he was also generous, supporting and his creation, timed to mark the 400th What we now call Part One of Don a large entourage with the considerable anniversary of the author’s death, that is Quixote appeared in January 1605 and sums he made from his book sales and easy reading and unsatisfying. I mean both was an instant hit. A month later copies theatrical productions. as terms of praise. The Man Who Invented were being shipped to Spain’s vast What does existentialism have to say Fiction is short, lively, and jargon-free. dominions in the New World. By Good to us in the 21st century? The Sartrean Egginton’s argument, broadly speaking, is Friday, the Don and Sancho were being emphasis on human freedom is bracing that Don Quixote represented something impersonated in festivities (as trick-or- at a time when many influential cur- new in literature and therefore in human treaters now dress as Spider-Man or the rents of contemporary thought, such as consciousness, which seems absolutely Little Mermaid). New printings, pirated sociobiology and behavioral econom- right. When he explains why, I don’t editions, translations, and an imitator’s ics, tend to be reductively determinis- accept all his reasons, but even his over- bogus sequel followed. Cervantes pro- tic. But Sartre’s freedom is also shoots and his dead ends are stimulating. duced an authentic sequel, Part Two, in anomic, severed from any natural or Egginton weaves his book around which his characters note their own fame, theological horizon that might give it Cervantes’s life. Miguel de Cervantes was in 1615, a year before his death. meaning; it is liberty as pure negation; born in 1547 in Alcalá, a city in southern Like many innovators, Cervantes threw it borders on nihilism, and so one won- Castile. His father’s ability to stitch everything on the wall to see what stuck. ders how much it has to offer us in the wounds and set bones entitled him to call Don Quixote features several interpolat- end. As for Sartre’s politics, today’s himself a surgeon. The family had claims ed stories, and a shift of narrator when we radical Left, in its defense of urban to gentility, set off against several black are suddenly told that a new chronicler, rioting and its hate-America-first marks: daughters who lost their virginity a Spanish Arab historian, has taken up ethos, seems its direct inheritor, how- to dishonest fiancés, a suspicion of con- the tale. Don’t make mountains of these ever unwittingly. Cox’s biography verso (ex-Jewish) blood. Cervantes him- (sometimes delightful) molehills. The offers readers unfamiliar with Sartre a self was obliged to go into exile on the eve engines of Don Quixote are its two main useful brief introduction to his life, but of his 22nd birthday, for the crime of duel- characters, and their interaction. They it only scratches the surface of these ing. He went to Italy, where he enlisted in talk to, at, and past each other, like an old deeper themes. a crusade against the Turks, who were couple, which, as the days and pages

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pass, they become. Their pratfalls take that Anne Elliot and Marcel had (finally) them on a tour of Spain, and of their made the wrong ones. Epic of the views of the world: the knight, brave, Better explanations for Cervantes’s besotted, generous, paranoid; the squire, continuous push-pull of vision and hard shrugging, accepting. Egginton gisves u knocks are the circumstances of his coun- Midlands frequent helpings of their own words, try and of his own life. In the half century KELLY JANE TORRANCE mostly from Edith Grossman’s 2003 before Cervantes’s birth, Spain had dis- translation; we could listen all day. covered and conquered millions of souls Jerusalem, by Alan Moore Egginton credits Cervantes with invent- and mountains of silver. God had been (Liveright, 1,280 pp., $35) ing fiction, by which he means a new served, and Mammon was the reward. kind of bifocal narrative, in which we are But during his lifetime, Holland revolted, N office move not long ago simultaneously inside and outside the England and storms smashed the Armada, necessitated one of those characters, seeing the world through their and the Spanish state suffered multiple painful purges I’ve had to eyes as we watch them move through it. bankruptcies. Meanwhile the gallant face almost from the mo ment “At every step of the way a fictional narra- warrior and resolute captive scrambled IA could read. Still smarting from the sacri- tive seems to know both more and less for employment and squabbled with the fice of books I hadn’t even remembered I than it is telling us. It speaks always with authorities. G. K. Chesterton got it right in owned, I took no consolation from the at least two voices, at times representing the best lines of his poem “Lepanto”: sight of gleaming wood ex posed now that the limited perspective of its characters, every shelf wasn’t double stacked. A col- He sees across a weary land a straggling at times revealing to the reader elements league, however, astutely recognized a road in Spain, of the story unknown to some of or all Up which a lean and foolish knigh bright side almost immediately. It’s easier those characters.” Egginton contrasts forever rides in vain, to spot your gems, he remarked, fingering Cervantes’s methods with those of And he smiles . . . an out-of-print copy of The Letters of Boccaccio, whose collection of stories, Kingsley Amis, after all that culling. the Decameron, was 250 years older. He smiled at the world, at himself, and “Boccaccio’s characters remain objects in at humanity. And we, with our own prob- Kelly Jane Torrance is the deputy managing editor of the world, no matter how rich the pictorial lems, smile along. The Weekly Standard. realism of their actions, environments, and behaviors. In contrast, Cervantes’s narratives function by constantly leading AT THE CHAPEL OF THE PINK SISTERS us to . . . internal feeling and emotions.” The crosses on the convent roofs The new world of fiction was not as Gleam sharply as the sun comes up. unprecedented as Egginton says—one —Wallace Stevens, “Botanist on Alp (No. 2)” can easily think of flashes of inner and The March wind blows past the first of April, outer life in ancient and medieval poems, Purple finches in the small tree are alert, plays, and histories. But spending hun- Driven to their perches by the equinox dreds of pages in the company of people As surely as it swells magnolia buds who act, talk, and think as we do (even Elaborately wrapped for Easter, timed though one of them is cracked) was a new To bloom this year just at the moment when experience. There, or there but for the March raids April on a cold day in Lent. grace of God, go I. Isn’t this fascinating? I used to see old friends here in their 30s. Egginton overplays his hand when he Then, only nuns, of no particular age, argues that the world of fiction is indeter- Except that they look younger every year. minate, all judgments and choices being I understand that happening with baseball left to the reader. “The space [Cervantes] Players or police officers, or streets opened, while ostensibly offering moral Crowded with hundreds, all of whom seem younger truths, in fact taught its readers to suspend Than I. But the Sisters were a surprise. judgments of truth or falsity, since they The old friends? Gone, moved to Jersey, or just simply could not apply to the complex Pr aying somewhere else besides this chapel structure [he] had developed.” Egginton’s Halfway between Cathedral and Fairmount indeterminacy model can be made to fit Where the Pink Sisters never cease praying, Cervantes’s masterpiece: There is nobility Across from the old brewer’s mansion, Silently, knowing that Green Street has its in the Don’s delusions, and they lead him Portion of sorrow, and its share of peace. into entertaining misadventures; why The postern gate on 22nd Street should he and we forsake them? But this Might be from a Scott novel, excepting hardly fits all, or even most, later fiction. That it’s not a fictional entranceway It would be an odd reader who finished But leads to a hidden reality Persuasion or In Search of Lost Time That a votaress on Green Street understands. thinking that Sir Walter Elliot and Mme. Verdurin had made the right choices, or —LAWRENCE DUGAN

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BOOKS, ARTS & MANNERS

This insight came back to me as I was Alan; those who have seen pictures of better with the voice of a monk in the reading Jerusalem. Of course, a lot of the famously hirsute writer will recog- year 810, but such a man would not thoughts came to mind while I read nize him here: “Think of those surpris- have used the term “Holy Roman Alan Moore’s latest work. This mam- ingly large clots of hair you sometimes Empire.” Moore’s metaphors can be moth of a novel is about, it seems, all of haul from a blocked bathtub trap, and painfully mixed, as when this morsel the big questions: life and death, sex then imagine one with eyes and a supe- goes off the rails: “His complexion and love, freedom and fate, time and rior demeanour: right there’s a descrip- florid to the point of looking lately space, heaven and earth. It’s also, quite tion that a police sketch artist could cooked, Bill Mabbutt was a heartening simply, well, big. At just under 1,300 work from.” sight with his remaining sandy hair a pages, Jerusalem takes up a lot of time Alma is inspired partly by the near- half-mast curtain draped behind his ears and space. And even the most devoted of death, near-insanity-inducing visions of around the rear of that bald cherry pate, readers will find his mind wandering her younger brother, a far less glam- the braces of his trousers stretched now and then, and not always in the orous tenant of the tenements, and part- across a button-collared shirt with direction Moore is trying to take it. ly by the completely insanity-inducing sleeves rolled boldly back to show his There just might be a great novel in visions of various of her ancestors. “The ham-hock forearms. These were pump- Jerusalem. But it can be hard to discern turn, the bend, the twist, the corner: there ing energetically beside him like the amidst the muddle. were quite a few in Alma’s family who’d pistons of a locomotive as he barrelled Moore is best known as a trailblazing gone round it,” as Moore says with his towards Ern.” writer of comic books set in a present characteristically dark humor. We’ll But sift through the sand and you’ll spun from an alternative history (Watch - meet many of these strange and wonder- find gold. “Grey” may be his favorite men) and in a dystopian near future (V for ful beings, who are taken from Moore’s adjective—and he does love adjectives, Vendetta), but in Jerusalem, his second own family tree, as well as more illustri- this man who hasn’t gotten to use them novel, he mines the very real past of a ous ones, including the aforementioned much before—to describe a human very real place: Northampton, the Eng - Joyce daughter. being, but his creations are, metaphori- lish Midlands city in which he’s lived Most of the chapters of the novel cally, anything but. Northampton, with since his birth in 1953. Actually, this move, Ulysses-like, through the course all its history, is a city haunted, a place weighty novel with huge themes centers of particular days. On May 26, while where ghosts run into other ghosts with- on just half a square mile of the town. Alma prepares her pageant, teenaged, out realizing their kinship. Mo ore draws The Boroughs, a working-class area with mixed-race Marla tries to turn a trick so them lovingly, these colorful common- a “multitude of pubs—what was it, she can score some crack, and middle- ers who made his city—who make every eighty-something?” and more than its aged Benedict will “take up once more city—the uncommon place it is, and he fair share of prostitutes, tramps, and the burden of his daily challenge, makes us love them too, in all their ASBOs (rowdy youths hit with “anti- which was trying to get hammered for a flawed humanity. social behaviour orders”), might not be tenner.” On a day in 1909, Charlie He endeavors to comfort these poor much to look at now. But, sitting Chaplin flirts with an ancestor of creatures. The last section of the book almost in the center of England, it has Warren’s on a street corner and a for- opens with an epigraph from Einstein seen the likes of Thomas Becket, mer slave from America learns the declaring that “the distinction between Samuel Beckett, Oliver Cromwell, awful (in every sense) story behind his past, present, and future is only stub- John Clare, Malcolm Arnold, and favorite hymn, “Amazing Grace.” And bornly persistent illusion.” The idea that James Joyce’s daughter, Lucia (the last on a day sometime later in the century, time is eternal is as much a consolation three having spent time in the local Lucia Joyce bewails her long-simmering as is the older notion of heaven—and insane asylum). Decisive battles in the flame Samuel Beckett and has a sexual perhaps no more likely. We can’t bear English Civil War and the War of the experience with Dusty Springfield in the thought that our loved ones will Roses took place nearby. One charac- the nuthouse. someday be lost to us forever. But nei- ter “couldn’t help but think if England At least, I’m pretty sure that’s what ther can we accept that we’re ensnared was America, and if you had a place happened: That section is written in in an endless loop of predestination. where both the War of Independence Joycean prose that James himself might Moore’s attitude might be summed up as and the Civil War had finished up, then have had trouble decoding. One chapter simply as one of his characters puts it: there’d have been a bigger thing made of the book is a play, another a poem. “She knew that most people had a rea- out of it.” Each attempts to sound like the charac- son for the way they were, and when it One resident does try to make a bigger ter on which it centers. There are more came to it she didn’t judge.” But this thing out of it. Jerusalem is bookended voices here than Dickens or Eliot could earthy and empyreal novel is so affect- by the story (such as it is) of Alma imagine anyone doing the police in. It’s ing—despite itself—because it portrays Warren, a rebellious artist born and as though Moore, who made his name with such empathy our struggle—de - raised in the Boroughs, who, on May 26, in a genre that calls especially for terse- spite ourselves—for redemption. In the 2006, is preparing for the opening the ness, wanted to prove he could write coal of even the blackest heart, there’s next day of an exhibition of paintings, anything and everything. Talented as he the possibility of a diamond. And it’s each of which echoes a chapter of the is, however, he can’t. The young Chap - often after a chance encounter with novel. Alma, a tough but tender-hearted lin’s musings on his own ambition are another soul that we finally think to enfant terrible, is clearly a stand-in for obvious and overwritten. Moore is a bit mine it.

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Film Hollywood On Hollywood

ROSS DOUTHAT

HEN it comes to recent Best Picture handicap- ping, you rarely go wrong betting on movies about Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in La La Land WHollywood itself. The movie business is an anxious industry, uncertain about its economic future, worried about its rele- It’s a very old-fashioned sort of love, cheesy pop. But the conflict gives way to vance in the age of prestige television, and not only because they sing about it a genuinely bravura climax, a montage all too aware of its artistic surrender to (huskily, tentatively, but charmingly of fantasy and flashback that’s the most the blockbuster machine—so when the enough). The movie is set in some version beautiful section of a truly beautiful Oscars roll around, its denizens reach of the present, or the recent past—every- film—and also the place where it firmly eagerly for movies that address those anx- body’s driving Priuses—but its characters leaves the template of the mid-century ieties head on. are old souls. Mia sleeps under an Ingrid musical behind and brings in a dose of Three of the last five Best Picture win- Bergman poster, Sebastian is obsessed bittersweet realism instead. ners fit that self-referential mold. In with Thelonious Monk; Mia secretly The director, Damien Chazelle, is 2011, The Artist offered straight silent- wants to be a playwright and Sebastian very young and extremely talented. He era nostalgia. The following year, Argo very openly wants to own a jazz club. In made 2014’s Whiplash, about musical made the romance of the movies seem keeping with these 1950s-appropriate obsession and harsh pedagogy, before happily relevant to geopolitics and spy- aspirations, they live as though the Inter- he turned 30 and now has pivoted to this, craft. The winner two years ago, Birdman, net and smartphones were barely there at an equally musical but otherwise very agonized over all the art-and-commerce all. The two lovers are constantly rushing different film. It is, I venture, slightly concerns that everyone in movieland around, surprising each other, appearing better than most of the other recent wants the world to think he wrestles and disappearing in the way that people Hollywood-centric Best Pictures (which with. And now, with La La Land as the did before it was possible to text your way probably means it will lose in an upset favorite for this awards season, we’re through life. Sebastian honks from the car somehow), with the Gosling–Stone likely to have our fourth in six years— whenever he picks Mia up; Mia rushes chemistry carrying the story and a stun- another nostalgia trip, this time to the to the fro nt of a movie theater when she ning color palette making Los Angeles golden age of musicals, that’s also a cele- arrives late for their date and peers out look like it did to newcomers in its gold- bration of all that’s gorgeous in a sun- across the darkened seats; Sebastian en age—like paradise on Earth. kissed Los Angeles today. comes back from a road trip and surprises Its only failing is unfortunately crucial That gorgeousness includes the Mia in their apartment; nobody ever to its genre: The songs themselves, while unlikely beauty of L.A.’s traffic jams, seems to think of shooting a text to say fine, are distinctly unmemorable. You’ll one of which supplies the movie’s open- “I’m here” or “I’ll be late.” be impressed by what Chazelle does visu- ing song-and-dance number, and our If they’re old-fashioned, though, ally while people sing and dance, and introduction to our leads, Sebastian they’re still ambitious, and this pre- that’s enough to make the movie a real (Ryan Gosling) and Mia (Emma Stone), dictably is what comes between them. pleasure—but a great musical should respectively a jazz-besotted musician Sebastian sidelines his goals to go on the leave you humming its big numbers, or and a barista-by-day aspiring actress. road with a jazz-rock band whose singer plant an earworm that stays with you for She gives him the finger on the high- is played by real-life crooner John Legend. hours, and none of the tunes in La La way; later he gives her a brush-off at his Mia writes a one-woman show in the Land is up to that standard. No doubt they restaurant-pianist job, where he’s just hopes of escaping the hapless-audition would be a little catchier with pros belting been fired for straying from the only- rut. Then he feels like he’s selling out for them instead of the more amateurish and Christmas-music rules; later still they her and she feels like she’s gone on a tentative leads. But it’s a poor tunesmith meet for a third time at a Hollywood wild-goose chase for him and they end up who blames his singers, and for La La Hills party and finally the chemistry frustrated and fighting and fracturing. Land to be a great movie, instead of just (and a little sunset song-and-dance rou- This is the boring part of the movie, great fun, Chazelle needed songs that tine) does its work, and they’re on their the inevitable period of conflict in would have had us coming out not just LIONSGATE way to love. which the only songs are Legend singing smiling, but singing.

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Happy Warrior BY ANDREW STILES Seven Lean Years

Y the time you read this, Donald Trump will The most interesting thing Obama ever did was wage a have been sworn in as the 45th president of the brilliant PR campaign in 2008, beating Hillary Clinton in United States. the Democratic primary and becoming the first African- B Or maybe not. For all I know, some celebri- American president. But that belongs to the previous ties will have teamed up for a last-ditch viral video mon- decade, as does the financial crisis, easily the most signif- tage that proved so edgy and sentimentally profound that icant historical event to play out during his presidency. Trump was persuaded to step down and apologize to Since 2010, the economy has (sort of) recovered. Race Hillary Clinton. You never know. Why else would they relations have . . . never mind. Global events over the past keep making them? several years certainly do not reflect well on the foreign- Either way, Barack Obama will no longer be president. policy record of our Nobel Peace Prize–winning president Millions of Americans will delight in this fact, most of all who “ended” the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and promised Barack Obama, who seems eager to return to his roots as a to “restore our moral standing in the world.” community organizer and serial memoirist. Hillary is When the decade started, no one had ever heard of going to defile her Depends when she finds out how much ISIS. Those who suggested Russia posed a “geopolitical he’s charging on the corporate speaking circuit. threat” were mocked by the president and his allies, The dawning of the Trump era in America also means who’d famously promised a “reset” in relations. Ukraine we can finally close the book on 2016, a m ost discouraging and Syria weren’t bastions of stability, but they weren’t year in what is shaping up to be one of the most lackluster active war zones. Refugees weren’t streaming into Europe, decades in recent memory. and the European Union seemed, well, less on the verge The thought occurred to me after watching The Eighties, of collapse. the most recent installment in the CNN-produced decade- Politics aside, what has the United States, or the human documentary series, which has also examined the Sixties race more generally, accomplished in the fields of cul- and the Seventies and will tackle the Nineties later this ture, science, technology, everything else, over the past year. The programs consist of ten episodes exploring the seven years? momentous political events and cultural trends that Try to imagine making a seven-part documentary defined each decade, colored with media coverage from series about the past seven years. What makes the cut? the time. The Sixties had “sex, drugs, and rock ’n’ roll.” The Will they even bother, years from now, to make a docu- 2010s have a heroin epidemic and Justin Bieber scream- mentary about our current decade? It doesn’t even have a ing “F*** Bill Clinton” while urinating in a mop bucket. proper name—the Teens? the Tens?—or at least not one Our “space race” is mostly just a couple of billionaires you’d ever use to advertise a documentary. Granted, a vying to be the first to send other billionaires on atmos- Donald Trump presidency has the potential to cram a pheric joy rides. decade’s worth of world-altering history into these next The Eighties and Nineties saw revolutions in computer three years, but what do we have to show for ourselves technology and the Internet. Thirty years later, plucky over the past seven? startups have become corporate giants in a race to see who Arbitrary as it may be, this decade offers an interesting, can hire the most government lobbyists. Innovation, if you and rather unflattering, snapshot of the Obama presidency. can call it that, has given us more and more reasons to It begins, on January 1, 2010, at the peak of Obama’s pres- never go outside, unless we’re chasing down magical crea- idency. Nineteen days later, Republican Scott Brown tures for our Pokémon collection. scored an improbable victory in the special election to suc- There could be an entire episode devoted to the rise of ceed the late senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, social media, which like to claim credit for fueling (at best threatening to derail the president’s signature achieve- marginally successful) revolutions in the Middle East but ment, Obamacare. have really just revolutionized the way we deliver insults The rest is history. Brown’s election did not derail the to people we’ve never met and allowed “new media” web- controversial health-care bill as Republicans hoped, but sites such as BuzzFeed to promote stories like “16 Photos it did mark the beginning of a political realignment in That’ll Make You Say ‘Aww’ and ‘Hot Damn’” that con- which, save for Obama’s reelection in 2012, the Demo- sist of “literally just 16 pictures of half-naked guys and cratic party suffered a string of humiliating defeats at the cute animals.” state and national level. Seven years later, a Republican In many ways, electing a billionaire reality-show host (and president will preside over a Republican-controlled promiscuous social-media insulter) to the most powerful Congress whose first order of business is to repeal office in the world is probably the perfect near-culmination Obamacare. The man once hailed as the greatest orator to whatever it is we end up calling this decade. (The Trump of the modern era has been forced to admit: “I lost the Turnaround? Decline and Fall of the American Empire, PR battle.” Volume 6?) You won’t want to miss the finale.

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