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Use and Exchange of X Genetic Resources in the Various Sectors Of BACKGROUND STUDY PAPER NO. 48 April 2011 E COMMISSION ON GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COUNTRIES’ INTERDEPENDENCE ON GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE edited by Sam Fujisaka, David Williams and Michael Halewood1 This document has been prepared at the request of the Secretariat of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), coordinated by Bioversity International, as a contribution to the cross-sectoral theme, Consideration of policies and arrangements for access and benefit-sharing for genetic resources for food and agriculture, which the Commission will consider at its Twelfth Regular Session. The content of this document is entirely the responsibility of the authors, and does not necessarily represent the views of the FAO, or its Members. 1 Sam Fujisaka, consultant for the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia; Michael Halewood and David Williams; senior researchers at Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. Sam Fujisaka passed away on 13 April 2010 after finalizing the penultimate version of this paper. This paper is dedicated to his memory. BACKGROUND STUDY PAPER NO. 48 i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION ................................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 2 1. Climate change ............................................................................................................................. 2 2. Countries‘ interdependence on genetic resources for food and agriculture .......................................... 3 3. Hypothesis and method .................................................................................................................. 4 4. Main findings ............................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER II: CROP AND FORAGE GENETIC RESOURCES: INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ........................................................... 7 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 7 2. Current international interdependency on PGRFA: Setting the baseline ............................................. 8 3. Climate change impacts on agriculture and PGRFA ......................................................................... 9 4. Numerical analysis of the changes in climatic similarity between countries for a number of crops...... 11 5. Expected changes in interdependency as a result of climate change ................................................. 16 6. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 17 CHAPTER III: TREE GENETIC RESOURCES: INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................. 19 1. Understanding the responses of tree species to climate change ........................................................ 19 2. Migration ................................................................................................................................... 19 2.1. Adaptation ......................................................................................................................... 20 2.2. Plasticity ........................................................................................................................... 20 3. Provenance research, adaptive variation, and zoning ...................................................................... 20 4. International movements of tree germplasm .................................................................................. 22 4.1. Current exchange and use ................................................................................................... 22 4.2. Understanding future exchange demands ............................................................................. 24 5. Elements of uncertainty ............................................................................................................... 25 5.1. What is the degree of plasticity of tree species? ..................................................................... 25 5.2. Are current modelling approaches appropriate? ................................................................... 25 5.3. Are current practices adequate to foster adaptation? ............................................................. 26 5.4. What consideration needs to be given to pollination issues? ................................................... 26 6. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 26 CHAPTER IV: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ANIMAL GENETIC RESOURCES AND COUNTRY INTERDEPENDENCE .............................................................................................. 28 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 28 2. Climate change, AnGR, and country interdependence .................................................................... 28 2.1. AnGR and country interdependence ..................................................................................... 28 2.2. Climate change and livestock .............................................................................................. 30 2.3. Non-climate change factors and livestock ............................................................................. 30 ii BACKGROUND STUDY PAPER NO. 48 2.4. Livestock and climate change scenarios ............................................................................... 33 3. Limitations in assessment capacity ............................................................................................... 36 4. Conclusions: Interdependence of animal genetic resources in the face of climate change ................... 37 CHAPTER V: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INTERDEPENDENCE FOR MICROBIAL GENETIC RESOURCES FOR AGRICULTURE ............................................................ 38 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 38 2. Microbial diversity ...................................................................................................................... 38 3. The role of microbes in food production systems ........................................................................... 38 4. The impact of climate change on microbes .................................................................................... 39 4.1. Elevated temperature .......................................................................................................... 40 4.2. Extreme rain events ............................................................................................................ 42 4.3. Elevated carbon dioxide ...................................................................................................... 43 4.4. Wind ................................................................................................................................. 43 5. Geographic redistribution of plant diseases and the need for surveillance systems ............................ 44 6. The importance of awareness and access to MGRs through microbial collections ............................. 45 7. Conclusions: Interdependence for microbial genetic resources in the face of climate change ............. 46 CHAPTER VI: INTERDEPENDENCE OF COUNTRIES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF GENETIC RESOURCES FOR AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ..... 48 1. Introduction: International borders and aquatic ecosystems ............................................................. 48 2. Aquatic genetic diversity ............................................................................................................. 49 3. Genetic resources for aquaculture ................................................................................................. 49 3.1. Common carp .................................................................................................................... 50 3.2. Nile tilapia ......................................................................................................................... 50 3.3. Atlantic salmon .................................................................................................................. 51 3.4. Tiger shrimp ...................................................................................................................... 52 3.5. Pacific oyster ..................................................................................................................... 52 4. Climate change and aquatic biodiversity ....................................................................................... 53 5. Conclusion: Interdependence of aquatic genetic diversity in the face of climate change..................... 54 CHAPTER VII: CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................
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