JULY 2021 VOLUME 79, N UMBER 7
Monitoring the State’s Economy
ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
he value of the Mississippi Leading revision to imports, which are a subtrac- Inside this issue: T Index (MLI) increased 1.1 percent in tion in the calculation of GDP. May as seen in Figure 1, its third consecu- May marked a month of slow but steady Mississippi Leading Index, 2 tive monthly increase. The value of the growth in the Mississippi economy as May 2021 MLI for the month was up 21.1 percent measured by the components of the MLI. compared to one year earlier. Mississippi Coincident 4 The highlight was the relatively large de- Index, May 2021 The value of the Mississippi Coincident crease in initial unemployment claims, Index (MCI) rose 0.3 percent in May as which fell to their lowest level since the National Trends 5 seen in Figure 2. Compared to one year onset of the pandemic. At the same time, ago the value for the month was up 9.7 however, continued unemployment claims Mississippi Employment 8 percent. rose for the month and remain elevated. Trends In its third estimate of the change in U.S. Employment growth in the state in 2021 is real GDP in the first quarter of 2021, the essentially flat as of May. Nevertheless, Change in Real GDP by 11 growth in building permits in Mississippi State in the First Quarter U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of 2021 reported an increase of 6.4 percent at a picked up in recent months and consumer seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate. The expectations, as measured nationally, con- tinue to rise despite the recent upturn in third estimate was the same as BEA’s first and second estimates. Nonresidential inflation. Like the U.S. economy the fixed investment, private inventory invest- state’s economy is in transition, and the ment, and exports were all revised up, but summer months indicate the recovery remains uneven. A Publication of the these increases were offset by an upward University Research Center, Mississippi Institutions of Higher Figure 1. Leading indices Figure 2. Coincident indices Learning 140 120
120 115 100 Follow the University 110 80 105 Research Center on Twitter: 60 100 @MississippiURCOOO 40 20 95
0 90 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Corey Miller U.S. Mississippi U.S. Mississippi State Economist Sources: University Research Center and The Conference Board Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and The Conference Board
3825 Ridgewood Road Notes: The Mississippi Coincident Index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and re-indexed to Jackson, MS 39211 2007. The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing work- [email protected] week length, and wage and salary disbursements. The Mississippi Leading Index is constructed by the Mississippi Uni- www.mississippi.edu/urc versity Research Center. The U.S. Indices are from The Conference Board. All series are indexed to a base year of 2007.
Photo credit: “I-55 North Rest Area features this refurbished example of a welcome sign from 1970” by formulanone available at https://commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File:Mississippi_Welcomes_You_-_1970_Specs_Cutout_Sign_(32407531922).jpg under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0) License. Full terms at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en.
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MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
MISSISSIPPI LEADING INDEX, MAY 2021
igure 3 indicates the value of the Mississippi Lead- The value of Mississippi residential building permits F ing Index of Economic Indicators (MLI) rose 1.1 (three-month moving average) increased 2.6 percent in percent in May, the third consecutive monthly increase. May as seen in Figure 7, its third consecutive monthly The value of the MLI was up 21.2 percent compared to gain. Compared to one year earlier the value for the one year earlier, the third consecutive month with a dou- month was 17.2 percent higher. The number of units in ble-digit year-over-year increase. Over the last six months the state in May rose 3.8 percent, its third consecutive the value of the MLI increased 7.6 percent. monthly increase as well. Compared to one year earlier Four of the seven components of the MLI increased in the number of units in the state in May was up 14.8 per- May and the largest contribution for the month came cent. In contrast, the number of privately‐owned housing from initial unemployment claims. The largest negative units authorized by building permits in the U.S. was down contribution was made by income tax withholdings. Each 3.0 percent in May compared to the revised April rate. component is discussed below in order of largest to Compared to one year earlier the number of units in the smallest contribution. U.S. for the month was 34.9 percent higher. As Figure 4 indicates the number of seasonally-adjusted The ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Activity lost initial unemployment claims in Mississippi decreased 1.0 percent of its value in June as seen in Figure 8, the 50.6 percent in May to the lowest level since February second decline in the last three months. Compared to 2020. The value was 87.3 percent lower compared to one one year earlier the value for the month was up 15.2 per- year earlier. In contrast, the number of seasonally- cent. Three of the five components of the Index declined adjusted continued unemployment claims in Mississippi in June, with the largest decrease in the Supplier Deliver- rose 2.7 percent in May as seen in Figure 16 on page 6. ies component. Notably, the Employment component The number of continued unemployment claims in Missis- slipped just out of expansionary territory to 49.9. The sippi in May compared to one year earlier was down 86.5 prices paid index jumped to its highest level in over forty percent. Figure 17 on page 6 indicates the seasonally- years in June as the prices of almost all commodities in adjusted unemployment rate in Mississippi in May was 6.1 the index rose for the month, including aluminum, copper, percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the pre- and crude oil. vious month. Compared to one year earlier the unem- U.S. retail sales fell 1.3 percent in value in May as seen ployment rate for the state was down 4.9 percentage in Figure 9, the first decrease since February. However, points. April sales were revised up 1.4 percent and March sales Figure 5 indicates the value of the Mississippi Manufac- were revised up 0.5 percent. The value of sales for the turing Employment Intensity Index rose 1.5 percent month was 28.1 percent higher compared to May 2020. in May, its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The value for Almost half the decrease for the month was due to sales the month was 12.9 percent higher compared to one year of vehicles, as sales excluding automobiles were down 0.7 earlier. Both Manufacturing employment in the state and percent. Sales in most retail segments fell in May and the the average weekly hours of production employees in- largest decline was in building materials. Supply con- creased for the month, which led to the increase. straints in the two segments mentioned as well as others were important factors in the decline in sales for the The value of the University of Michigan Index of month as sales across segments varied considerably. Consumer Expectations (three-month moving aver- age) increased 1.6 percent in May as seen in Figure 6. The Mississippi income tax withholdings (three-month increase was the fifth consecutive monthly gain. Com- moving average) fell 2.2 percent in value in May as seen in pared to one year earlier, the value for the month was Figure 10. The decrease was the second in the last three 17.6 percent higher. Continued vaccinations and easing of months. Nevertheless, the value of withholdings in May restrictions in much of the country (including California was 5.4 percent higher compared to one year earlier. and New York) likely boosted consumers’ outlooks in the Over the last six months the value of income tax with- most recent survey. Notably, both short-term (one-year) holdings in Mississippi decreased 2.4 percent. and long-term (five-year) inflation expectations decreased in the most recent survey.
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JULY 2021
MISSISSIPPI LEADING INDEX AND COMPONENTS, IN FIGURES
Figure 3. Mississippi Leading Index Figure 4. Mississippi initial unemployment claims 120.0 35.0% 60,000 1,400%
30.0% 1,200% 110.0 50,000 25.0% 1,000% 20.0% 100.0 40,000 800% 15.0% 90.0 10.0% 30,000 600%
5.0% 400% 80.0 20,000 0.0% 200%
-5.0% Bar graph:Number claimsof
70.0 10,000 Bar Graph:Index; 2007 100 =
-10.0% 000% ago year over change Percent graph: Line Line graph: percent change over year ago changepercentover year Line graph: 60.0 -15.0% - -200% 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: University Research Center Source: U.S. Department of Labor; seasonally adjusted
Figure 5. Mississippi Manufacturing Employment Intensity Index Figure 6. University of Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations (Three-month moving average) 90.0 25.0% 90 20% 20.0% 80.0 80 15% 15.0% 10% 70 70.0 10.0% 5% 60 5.0% 0% 60.0 50 0.0% -5% 40 -10% 50.0 -5.0% 30 -15%
Bar graph: Index; 2007 100 = 2007 Index; graph: Bar -10.0% 20 -20% 40.0 Bar graph:Index; 1966Q1 = 100 -15.0% 10
Line graph: Percent change over year ago year over change Percent graph: Line -25% Linegraph: Percentchangeago yearover
30.0 -20.0% 0 -30% 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: URC using data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Figure 7. Value of Mississippi residential building permits Figure 8. ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Activity (Three-month moving average) 70.0 50% $120 35% 45%
$115 30% 60.0 40%
25% 35% $110 50.0 30% 20% 25% $105 15% 40.0 20% $100 15% 10% 30.0 10% $95 5% Bar graph:Index (percent)
5%
Bar graph:Millions dollars2007 of Line graph: Percent change over year ago year over change Percent graph: Line
$90 0% expansion line (Dottedthreshold) indicates 20.0 0% 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Linegraph: Percentchangeago yearover 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; seasonally adjusted Source: Institute for Supply Management
Figure 9. U.S. retail sales Figure 10. Mississippi income tax withholdings (Three-month moving average) $700 60.0% $135 9% 50.0% 8% $600 7% $130 6% 40.0% $500 5% 4% 30.0% $125 3% $400 2% 20.0% 1% $120 0% $300 10.0% -1% -2% $200 $115 -3% 0.0% -4%
-5%
Bar graph:Millions dollars2007 of
Bar graph:Billions currentofdollars Line graph: Percent change over year ago year over change Percent graph: Line
$100 -10.0% $110 -6% ago year over change Percent graph: Line 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue; seasonally adjusted
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MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
MISSISSIPPI COINCIDENT INDEX, MAY 2021
igure 11 indicates the value of the Missis- F sippi Coincident Index of Economic Figure 11. Mississippi Coincident Index Indicators (MCI) rose 0.3 percent in May 120.0 15.0% according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Phil- 118.0 adelphia. Compared to one year earlier the 116.0 10.0% value of the MCI in May was 9.7 percent high- 114.0 er, the second consecutive month with a year- 5.0% over-year increase. 112.0 110.0 The values of the coincident indices in forty- 0.0% eight states increased between February and 108.0
May as seen in Figure 12. Over the last three 106.0 -5.0% months the values of the coincident indices Bar Graph:Index; 2007 100 = 104.0
gained more than 1.0 percent in thirty-five change over Line year agoPercentGraph: 102.0 -10.0% states. The largest increase in the value of a 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 coincident index among all states of 4.9 per- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia cent occurred in Hawaii. Mississippi was one of thirteen states where the values of coincident indices increased less than 1.0 percent in May compared to Febru- ary. The only two states where the values of coincident indices decreased over the last three months as of May were Alaska and Wyoming.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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JULY 2021
NATIONAL TRENDS
he Conference Board reported the value of T the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in- Figure 13. U.S. Leading Index creased 1.3 percent in May as seen in Figure 13. 120.0 20.0% The April value was revised down slightly. The 115.0 15.0% value of the LEI for the month was 14.7 percent 10.0% higher compared to one year earlier. Average 110.0 weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance 5.0% made the largest contribution as seven of the ten 105.0 components of the LEI increased in May. Over the 0.0% 100.0 last six months the value of the LEI rose 4.9 per- Bar Graph:Index -5.0% cent. 95.0 -10.0%
According to The Conference Board the value of Line Graph: Percent change over changeover year ago Line PercentGraph: the U.S. Coincident Economic Index (CEI) climbed 90.0 -15.0% 0.4 percent in May as Figure 14 indicates. Previous 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 months’ values were revised higher. The value of Source: The Conference Board the CEI rose 10.4 percent over the last twelve months. All four components of the CEI made positive contributions in May and the largest con- Figure 14. U.S. Coincident Index tribution came from employees on nonagricultural 106.0 15.0% payrolls. The value of the CEI increased 2.0 per- 104.0 cent in the last six months. 10.0% 102.0 As Figure 15 indicates the value of the National 5.0% Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) 100.0 Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.2 per- 98.0 0.0% cent in May, its first decrease since January. Com- 96.0 -5.0% pared to one year earlier the value of the Index Bar Graph:Index was 5.5 percent higher for the month. Only three 94.0 -10.0% of the ten components decreased in May while 92.0 others saw little or no change. The largest de- 90.0 -15.0% changeover year ago Line PercentGraph: crease was in the “expect economy to improve” 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 component. The “plans to raise prices” measure Source: The Conference Board increased markedly in May. The slight decrease in the Index indicates labor shortages and supply chain issues continue to exasperate small busi- Figure 15. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index nesses, as the latter leads to concerns about infla- 106.0 15% tion. 104.0 10% The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 102.0 made no changes to the current federal funds rate 100.0 5% target at its June meeting. No move was expected, 98.0 despite the recent surge in inflation. However, the 0% FOMC indicated it expects rates will increase by 96.0 the end of 2023, a change from previous guidance 94.0 -5% that rates would not rise before 2024. Projections 92.0
Bar graph:Index; 1986 = 100 -10% from the June meeting anticipate the benchmark 90.0
rate will reach 0.6 percent by the end of 2023. Linegraph: Percentchangeago yearover 88.0 -15% The committee also discussed the winding down 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 of the Fed’s bond purchases that began last year. Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses
Page 6
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
MISCELLANEOUS ECONOMIC INDICATORS, IN FIGURES
Figure 16. Mississippi continued unemployment claims Figure 17. Mississippi unemployment rate 915.0 3,000% 12.0% 8.0 6.0 815.0 11.0% 2,500% 4.0 715.0 10.0% 2,000% 2.0 615.0
adjustedrate 9.0%
- 0.0 515.0 1,500% 8.0% -2.0 415.0 1,000% -4.0 7.0% 315.0 500% -6.0 6.0% 215.0 -8.0
000% Bar graph:Thousands of claims
Bar graph:Seasonally 5.0%
115.0 -10.0 Line graph: Percent change over year ago year over change Percent graph: Line 15.0 -500% 4.0% -12.0ago year over change point Percentage graph: Line 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: U.S. Department of Labor; seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
Figure 18. Real average manufacturing weekly earnings in Mississippi Figure 19. Real average hourly wage for manufacturing in Mississippi $860 3% $21.60 5%
$850 2% $21.40 4%
$840 1% 3% $21.20 0% 2% $830 $21.00 -1% 1% $820 -2% $20.80 0% $810 -3% $20.60 -1% $800 -4% -2% $20.40 $790 -5% -3% $20.20
$780 per hour 2007 dollars Bargraph:
Bar graph: Millions of dollarsof Millions2007 graph: Bar -6% -4% Line graph: Percent change over year ago year over change Percent graph: Line $770 -7% $20.00 -5% ago year over change Percent graph: Line
$760 -8% $19.80 -6% 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; non-seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
Figure 20. Mississippi gaming revenue Figure 21. U.S. inflation: price growth over prior year $250 180000% CPI Core CPI (excludes food and energy) 160000% $200 140000% 6.0% 120000% 5.0% 5.0% $150 100000% 4.3% 80000% 3.9% 4.0% $100 60000% 3.0% 40000% 3.0% 2.7% $50 20000% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%1.3% 1.2% $0 -20000% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% Bar graph:Millions dollars2007 of 0.2% Line graph: Percent change over year Percent year Line agochange over graph: 0.0% Coastal River Total Annual Growth of Total 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue; seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 22. ISM Index of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Activity Figure 23. U.S. total light vehicle sales 70.0 60% 20.0 140%
120% 65.0 50% 100% 15.0 40% 60.0 80%
30% 60% 55.0 10.0 20% 40% 50.0 20% 10% 5.0
0% Bar graph:Index (percent) 45.0 0%
-20%
Dotted line indicates threshold) Dotted indicates expansion line
(
Bar graph:Millions units,of annualized Linegraph: Percentchangeago yearover 40.0 -10% 0.0 -40% Linegraph: Percentchange overagoyear 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/2011/2012/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 6/21 Source: Institute for Supply Management Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Page 7
JULY 2021
TABLE 1. SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
May April May Percent change from
2021 2021 2020 April 2021 May 2020 U.S. Leading Economic Index 114.5 113.0 99.8 1.3% 14.7% 2007 = 100. Source: The Conference Board U.S. Coincident Economic Index 105.1 104.7 95.2 0.4% 10.4% 2007 = 100. Source: The Conference Board
Mississippi Leading Index 116.0 114.7 95.7 1.1% 21.2% 2007 = 100. Source: University Research Center
Mississippi Coincident Index 118.0 117.7 107.6 0.3% 9.7% Indices Economic 2007 =100. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Mississippi initial unemployment claims 7,127 14,419 56,114 50.6% 87.3% Seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Department of Labor Value of Mississippi residential building permits 116.5 113.5 99.4 2.6% 17.2% Three-month moving average; seasonally adjusted; millions of 2007 dollars. Source: Bureau of the Census Mississippi income tax withholdings 126.7 129.5 120.2 2.2% 5.4% Three-month moving average; seasonally adjusted; millions of 2007 dollars. Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue Mississippi Manufacturing Employment Intensity Index 83.7 82.4 74.1 1.5% 12.9% 2007 =100. Source: URC using data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics University of Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations 81.7 80.4 69.4 1.6% 17.6% Three-month moving average; index 1966Q1 = 100. Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Activity 60.6 61.2 52.6 1.0% 15.2% Advanced one month. Source: Institute for Supply Management U.S. retail sales
620.2 628.7 484.0 1.3% 28.1% Index Leading Mississippi the of Components Current dollars, in billions. Source: Bureau of the Census U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) 129.5 128.7 123.4 0.6% 5.0% U.S. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) 130.8 129.9 126.0 0.7% 3.9% 2007 = 100. Source: URC using data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Mississippi unemployment rate 6.1% 6.2% 11.0% 0.1% 4.9% Percentage point change. Seasonally-adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Mississippi continued unemployment claims 108,944 106,073 809,745 2.7% 86.5%
Seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Department of Labor ISM Index of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Activity 60.1 64.0 57.1 6.1% 5.3% Advanced one month. Source: Institute for Supply Management U.S. mortgage rates 2.95% 3.02% 3.22% 0.07% 0.27% Percentage point change. Seasonally adjusted; 30-year conventional. Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Mississippi average hourly wage for manufacturing 20.42 20.39 21.25 0.1% 3.9% Seasonally adjusted; 2007 dollars. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mississippi average weekly earnings for manufacturing 832.15 828.65 830.43 0.4% 0.2% Indicators Miscellaneous Seasonally adjusted; 2007 dollars. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 99.6 99.8 94.4 0.2% 5.5% 1986 = 100. Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses U.S. total light vehicle sales 15.36 17.04 13.02 9.8% 18.0% Millions of units seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gaming revenue 205.43 210.68 60.0 2.5% 242.2% Coastal counties 120.33 123.98 36.2 2.9% 232.8% River counties 85.10 86.71 23.9 1.8% 256.4% Seasonally adjusted; millions of 2007 dollars. Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue
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MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
he U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported A majority of sectors in Mississippi added jobs in May. T total nonfarm employment in Mississippi rose by The largest increase occurred in Accommodation and 1,500 jobs in May as seen in Table 2, a gain of 0.1 per- Food Services, which added 1,500 jobs for the month. cent. April employment in the state was revised up by Professional and Business Services closely followed with 700 jobs. Total nonfarm employment in Mississippi for an increase of 1,300 jobs in May. The largest percentage the month was up by 78,000 jobs compared to May 2020, increase in employment among all sectors was the 1.8 an increase of 7.5 percent. percent increase in Mining and Logging, which added 100 Total nonfarm employment increased in fourteen states, jobs. Government lost 2,900 jobs in May, a decrease of decreased in one state, and was unchanged in thirty-five 1.2 percent; both declines were the largest among all sec- states and the District of Columbia in May. The largest tors in the state for the month. Most of the government increase occurred in California, which added 104,500 jobs lost were in state government. Employment was un- jobs, followed by Florida, which added 39,900 jobs. Em- changed for the month in Educational Services and Arts ployment rose 1.1 percent in New Mexico, the largest and Entertainment. percentage increase among all states. Wyoming was the Almost all sectors in the state added jobs over the last only state to lose jobs in May, as employment fell by twelve months as of May. Accommodation and Food Ser- 3,800 jobs, a decrease of 1.4 percent. vices added 28,100 jobs since May 2020, the largest in- Compared to one year earlier nonfarm employment was crease in employment among all sectors. The largest per- higher in all fifty states and the District of Columbia in centage gain in employment among all sectors was the May. California added 1,220,200 jobs over the last twelve 42.4 percent increase in Arts and Entertainment. Employ- months, the largest increase in employment among all ment decreased in two sectors in Mississippi over the last states, followed by New York, which added 882,500 jobs, twelve months: Mining and Logging lost 300 jobs, a de- and Texas, which added 804,200 jobs. In Nevada employ- crease of 5.0 percent, and Financial Activities lost 600 ment rose 19.2 percent over the last twelve months, the jobs, a decrease of 1.4 percent. largest percentage gain among all states.
Table 2. Change in Mississippi employment by industry, May 2021
Relative May April May Change from Change from share of April 2021 May 2020 2021 2021 2020 totalª Level Percent Level Percent Total Nonfarm 100.0% 1,123,500 1,122,000 1,045,500 1,500 0.1% 78,000 7.5% Mining and Logging 0.5% 5,700 5,600 6,000 100 1.8% 300 5.0% Construction 4.0% 44,400 44,200 42,300 200 0.5% 2,100 5.0% Manufacturing 12.6% 141,500 140,500 130,700 1,000 0.7% 10,800 8.3% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 20.8% 233,300 232,200 220,400 1,100 0.5% 12,900 5.9% Retail Trade 12.0% 132,500 132,200 128,000 300 0.2% 4,500 3.5% Information 0.8% 9,500 9,400 9,200 100 1.1% 300 3.3% Financial Activities 3.8% 42,300 42,400 42,900 100 0.2% 600 1.4% Services 36.3% 414,900 412,900 364,800 2,000 0.5% 50,100 13.7% Professional & Business Services 9.7% 111,300 110,000 99,500 1,300 1.2% 11,800 11.9% Educational Services 1.0% 11,600 11,600 10,000 0 0.0% 1,600 16.0% Health Care and Social Assistance 11.5% 127,300 127,800 125,000 500 0.4% 2,300 1.8% Arts and Entertainment 0.7% 8,400 8,400 5,900 0 0.0% 2,500 42.4% Accommodation and Food Services 9.9% 116,300 114,800 88,200 1,500 1.3% 28,100 31.9% Other Services 3.6% 40,000 40,300 36,200 300 0.7% 3,800 10.5% Government 21.1% 231,900 234,800 229,200 2,900 1.2% 2,700 1.2% ªRelative shares are for the most recent twelve-month average. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
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JULY 2021
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR, IN FIGURES
Figure 24a. Nonfarm employment Figure 24b. Mining and Logging 1,200 15.0% 8.0 0.0%
7.0 -2.0% 1,150 10.0% -4.0% 6.0 1,100 5.0% -6.0% 5.0 -8.0% 1,050 0.0% 4.0 -10.0% 3.0 1,000 -5.0% -12.0% 2.0
-14.0%
Thousandsemployeesof Thousandsemployeesof
950 -10.0% Percent change overyear ago 1.0 -16.0% Percent change overyear ago
900 -15.0% 0.0 -18.0%
5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 1/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 5/21
5/19 6/19 8/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 7/19 9/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20
11/20 12/20 10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20
10/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20 11/19
Figure 24c. Construction Figure 24d. Manufacturing 46.0 8.0% 150 20.0%
45.0 6.0% 145 15.0%
4.0% 140 10.0% 44.0 2.0% 135 5.0% 43.0 0.0% 130 0.0% 42.0 -2.0% 125 -5.0% 41.0
-4.0% 120 -10.0%
Thousandsemployeesof
Thousandsemployeesof Percent change yearover ago 40.0 -6.0% 115 -15.0% Percent change overyear ago
39.0 -8.0% 110 -20.0%
8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/19 6/19 7/19
6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 5/21
11/19 11/20 12/20 10/19 12/19 10/20
10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20
Figure 24e. Trade, transportation, and utilities Figure 24f. Information 235 12.0% 11.5 6.0% 10.0% 4.0% 230 11.0 8.0% 2.0% 225 6.0% 10.5 0.0% 4.0% -2.0% 220 2.0% 10.0 -4.0%
215 0.0% 9.5 -6.0% -2.0% -8.0%
210 -4.0% 9.0 -10.0% Thousandsemployeesof -6.0% Thousandsemployeesof -12.0%
205 8.5 Percent change overyear ago -8.0% Percent change overyear ago -14.0%
200 -10.0% 8.0 -16.0%
8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20
6/19 8/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 5/21 5/19 7/19 9/19 4/21
10/20 11/20 12/20 10/19 11/19 12/19
10/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20 11/19
Figure 24g. Financial activities Figure 24h. Professional and business services 45.0 1.0% 115 20.0%
44.5 0.0% 110 15.0% 44.0 -1.0% 10.0% 43.5 105
43.0 -2.0% 5.0% 100 42.5 -3.0% 0.0% 42.0 95 -4.0% -5.0%
41.5
Thousandsemployeesof Thousandsemployeesof
-5.0% 90 -10.0% Percent change overyear ago 41.0 Percent change overyear ago
40.5 -6.0% 85 -15.0%
8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/19 6/19 7/19
5/19 7/19 9/19 1/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 2/21 4/21 6/19 8/19 2/20 1/21 3/21 5/21
10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20
11/19 10/20 12/20 10/19 12/19 11/20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (all figures); seasonally adjusted
Page 10
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR, IN FIGURES (CONTINUED)
Figure 24i. Educational services Figure 24j. Health care and social assistance 14.0 25.0% 140 6.0% 20.0% 12.0 4.0% 15.0% 135 2.0% 10.0 10.0% 5.0% 130 0.0% 8.0 0.0% -2.0% 6.0 -5.0% 125 -4.0% 4.0 -10.0%
-6.0% Thousandsemployeesof -15.0% Thousandsemployeesof 120
2.0 Percent change overyear ago -20.0% -8.0% Percent change yearover ago
0.0 -25.0% 115 -10.0%
5/19 7/19 9/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 4/21 6/19 8/19 2/20 4/20 3/21 5/21
8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/19 6/19 7/19
11/19 10/20 11/20 12/20 10/19 12/19
10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20
Figure 24k. Arts and entertainment Figure 24l. Accommodation and food services 12.0 60.0% 140 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 120 10.0 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 100 30.0% 8.0 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 80 10.0% 6.0 0.0% 60 0.0% -10.0% -10.0% 4.0
-20.0% 40 -20.0% Thousandsemployeesof 2.0 -30.0% Thousandsemployeesof -30.0%
Percent change overyear ago 20 -40.0% -40.0% Percent change yearover ago
0.0 -50.0% 0 -50.0%
5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 2/21 4/21 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 1/21 3/21 5/21
8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 5/19 6/19 7/19
10/19 12/19 10/20 12/20 11/19 11/20
10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20
Figure 24m. Other services Figure 24n. Federal government 42.0 20.0% 29.0 12.0% 28.5 15.0% 10.0% 40.0 28.0 10.0% 27.5 8.0% 38.0 5.0% 27.0 26.5 6.0% 36.0 0.0% 26.0 4.0% -5.0% 25.5 34.0 2.0%
-10.0% 25.0 Thousandsemployeesof
Thousandsemployeesof 32.0 24.5 Percent change yearover ago -15.0% 0.0% Percent change yearover ago 24.0
30.0 -20.0% 23.5 -2.0%
6/19 8/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 5/21 5/19 7/19 9/19 4/21
5/19 7/19 8/19 2/20 3/20 5/20 6/20 8/20 9/20 2/21 3/21 5/21 6/19 9/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 1/21 4/21
10/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20 11/19
10/19 11/19 11/20 12/20 12/19 10/20
Figure 24o. State government Figure 24p. Local government 61.0 8.0% 160 3.0%
60.0 6.0% 158 2.0%
59.0 4.0% 156 1.0% 58.0 2.0% 154 0.0% 57.0 0.0% 152 -1.0% 56.0 -2.0% 150 -2.0% 55.0 -4.0% 148 -3.0% 54.0
-6.0% 146 -4.0% Thousandsemployeesof
Thousandsemployeesof 53.0 Percent change overyear ago 52.0 -8.0% Percent change overyear ago 144 -5.0%
51.0 -10.0% 142 -6.0%
7/19 8/19 9/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 5/19 6/19 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21
6/19 8/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 5/21 5/19 7/19 9/19 4/21
10/19 11/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20
10/19 12/19 10/20 11/20 12/20 11/19 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (all figures); seasonally adjusted
Page 11
JULY 2021
n June the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released annualized estimates of the change in real gross domes- I tic product (GDP) by state for the first quarter of 2021. (An annualized estimate is the actual change multiplied by four.) As stated on page 1 the change in U.S. real GDP in the first quarter according to BEA was an increase of 6.4 percent. In addition, BEA estimates real GDP expanded in all fifty states and the District of Columbia in the first quar- ter. Real GDP for Mississippi increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter according to BEA, which ranked sixteenth among all states. The gain marked the third consecutive quarter real GDP for the state grew at an annualized rate of more than 5.0 percent. For all of 2020 real GDP for Mississippi contracted 2.8 percent according to BEA’s latest esti- mate, as discussed in the May 2021 issue of Mississippi’s Business. The contributions by sector to the 6.9 percent increase in the state’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2021 are listed in Table 3 below from largest to smallest. (BEA’s preliminary estimates only include the changes in major industries.) The Manufacturing sector made the largest contribution to growth in the state’s economy in the first quarter. The sector was responsible for 1.7 percentage points of the 6.9 percent increase. The contribution of Manufacturing is notable as the sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP for Mississippi in 2020. The next largest contribution came from the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting sector, which was responsi- Table 3. Contributions to percent change in Mississippi real ble for more than 1.2 percentage points of GDP by sector, first quarter 2021 the total increase in real GDP in the first Sector Percentage points quarter. The Retail Trade sector was re- Manufacturing 1.70 sponsible for the third largest contribu- Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 1.24 tion to growth in the first quarter of al- Retail trade 0.79 most 0.8 percentage point. Together, the Manufacturing, Agriculture, and Retail Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 0.70 Trade sectors accounted for more than Accommodation and food services 0.67 half of the growth in real GDP. Three sec- Administrative and support and waste management 0.58 tors contributed negatively to real GDP in Transportation and warehousing 0.37 the first quarter. Health Care and Social Information 0.29 Assistance made a slightly negative contri- Wholesale trade 0.22 bution of less than 0.1 percentage point. Professional, scientific, and technical services 0.21 Government and Other Services both Construction 0.15 reduced real GDP growth by about 0.2 Management of companies and enterprises 0.12 percentage point in the first quarter. The Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.12 negative contribution by Government– Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0.10 federal, state, and local combined–is nota- Educational services 0.10 ble as the sector accounted for the sec- Utilities 0.04 ond largest share of real GDP in 2020. Health care and social assistance -0.06 The change in real GDP by state in the Government and government enterprises -0.18 first quarter of 2021 is depicted in Figure Other services -0.20 25. The largest increase in real GDP oc- Total 6.9% curred in Nevada, where the economy Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Page 12
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINE SS
, CONTINUED expanded by 10.9 percent in the first quarter at an annualized rate. A state that relies heavily on tourism, the Accom- modation and Food Services sector was the largest contributor to the increase in real GDP in Nevada. The state was one of ten states where real GDP grew by more than 7.4 percent in the first quarter. In thirty-one states including Mississippi real GDP expanded from 5.6 percent up to 7.4 percent. Real GDP grew by less than 5.6 percent in nine states. The smallest increase in real GDP among all states was the 4.3 percent increase in Texas. Real GDP for the District of Columbia grew at a rate of 2.9 percent according to BEA. The only state in the Southeast where real GDP expanded by more than 7.0 percent was Tennessee, where the econ- omy grew by 7.4 percent in the first quarter. The economies of both Georgia and Florida expanded by 7.0 percent. Among states in the southeast region, real GDP in Louisiana and Oklahoma grew by less than 5.0 percent, in addition to Texas. Other than North Dakota and West Virginia, states with significant energy sectors experienced some of the smallest increases in real GDP in the first quarter, including Alaska, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis