Meld. St. (white paper) to the Storting 33 (2012–2013) Report Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)

Published by: Norwegian Ministry of the Environment Climate change adaptation in Norway Internet address: www.government.no

Cover image: Oslo 20. juli 2012 Photographer: Trond J. Strøm

Printed by: DSS – 08/2015 Climate change adaptation in Norway

E JØM RKE IL T M

2 4 9 1 7 3 Trykksak Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)

Climate change adaptation in Norway

Translation from Norwegian. For information only. Contents

Summary ...... 5 6.2 Stormwater management ...... 53 6.3 Flooding, landslides and 1 Introduction ...... 7 avalanches ...... 56 6.4 Sea level rise ...... 61 2 The climate and climate 6.5 Compensation and insurance change in Norway ...... 11 cover for natural hazard damage .. 62 2.1 The present climate and historical climate variability ...... 11 7 Climate-resilient 2.2 The climate of the future – climate municipalities ...... 65 projections for 2050–2100 ...... 12 7.1 Climate change as part of the framework of society ...... 65 3 Impacts of climate change on 7.2 The municipalities’ responsibility nature and society ...... 16 for climate change adaptation ...... 66 3.1 The natural environment ...... 16 7.3 Central government planning 3.2 Food production ...... 22 guidelines for climate change 3.3 Human life and health ...... 25 adaptation ...... 68 3.4 Infrastructure ...... 27 7.4 Information, cooperation and 3.5 The Norwegian business sector ... 30 advice ...... 69 3.6 Cultural heritage ...... 32 3.7 The Sami culture and way of life .. 35 8 Climate change adaptation in different sectors ...... 72 4 Common framework for 8.1 Nature management ...... 72 adaptation to climate change .. 37 8.2 Agriculture and forestry ...... 79 4.1 Everyone shares the 8.3 Fisheries and aquaculture ...... 87 responsibility for climate change 8.4 Health ...... 88 adaptation ...... 37 8.5 Buildings and other infrastructure 89 4.2 Key considerations in climate 8.6 The business sector ...... 94 change adaptation ...... 38 4.3 Coordination needs ...... 39 9The Arctic ...... 97 4.4 International developments ...... 41 9.1 Climate change in the Arctic ...... 97 4.5 Knowledge and learning in 9.2 Impacts and adaptation needs ...... 98 climate change adaptation ...... 41 9.3 Adapting nature management in Svalbard to climate change ...... 99 5 A shared knowledge platform .. 42 9.4 Settlements and human activity 5.1 A shared need for knowledge ...... 42 in Svalbard: impacts of climate 5.2 Tailored knowledge about the change and adaptation needs ...... 100 future climate ...... 45 9.5 Climate change adaptation and 5.3 Maps and spatial information ...... 48 Arctic cooperation ...... 102 9.6 Knowledge and competence 6 Risk reduction and natural building ...... 104 hazard management ...... 50 6.1 Civil protection and emergency 10 Economic and administrative planning ...... 50 consequences ...... 107

Climate change adaptation in Norway Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)

Recommendation of 7. May 2013 from the Ministry of the Environment, approved in the Council of State the same day. (White paper from the Stoltenberg II Government)

Summary

Norway’s long coastline and wide mountain Everyone is responsible for climate change ranges extending right up to the Arctic mean that adaptation – individuals, business and industry the country is extremely exposed to wind and and the authorities. This is not a new responsibil- weather. The climate and weather conditions ity, although its substance is described more spe- affect practically every sector of society and are cifically in the present white paper. The white an important element of most people’s daily lives. paper gives an account of what the authorities are Norwegians are used to taking weather condi- doing to enable everyone to take their share of the tions into account and have adapted to climate var- responsibility for climate change adaptation as iability over the centuries. effectively as possible, and sets out a common Over the past 100 years, the Norwegian cli- framework for climate change adaptation across mate has become warmer and precipitation has sectors and administrative levels. increased by about 20 %. These trends are A preliminary framework for the authorities’ expected to continue. It is estimated that the work in this field was first set out in the 2009 annual mean temperature in Norway will rise by budget proposal, which focused particularly on between 2.3 and 4.6 °C by the end of this century reviewing Norway’s vulnerability to climate relative to the period 1961–90. Similarly, it is esti- change, developing the knowledge base, coordi- mated that precipitation may rise by between 5 nating adaptation initiatives and awareness rais- and 30 %, and projections also indicate an increase ing. In response to this, a national assessment of in intense precipitation events, which will in turn the impacts of climate change on Norway has increase the risk of certain types of flooding and been produced and published as an Official Nor- landslides and avalanches. wegian Report, Adapting to a changing climate The severity of the impacts of climate change (NOU 2010: 10). Research efforts have been on the environment and society will depend both intensified, and a range of capacity- and compe- on how much the climate changes and on soci- tence-building measures have been implemented, ety’s adaptive capacity and willingness to factor especially at municipal level. Many authorities in climate change into planning and take active steps different sectors and a large number of municipal- to adapt to change. The present white paper ities have already made a good start on adaptation focuses on the challenges associated with climate efforts. change and how Norway can become more resil- Climate projections are an important basis for ient in the face of climate change. society’s adaptation to climate change. As a pre- cautionary approach, the Government wishes 6 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway assessments of the impacts of climate change to Sea level rise associated with climate change be based on figures from the high end of the may lead to new challenges in some areas. Indi- range of national climate projections. However, viduals, private companies, public bodies and local when decisions are made in individual cases, cli- and central government authorities all have a mate change considerations and underlying responsibility for taking steps to safeguard their assumptions about the degree of climate change own property. Under the Planning and Building must be weighed against other considerations of Act, the municipalities are responsible for ensur- the public interest, the lifetime of the development ing that natural hazards are assessed and taken in question and its importance to society. properly into account in spatial planning and pro- Knowledge is essential for effective climate cessing of building applications. This includes the change adaptation – both knowledge about cli- responsibility for taking sea level rise and the mate change and its impacts, and knowledge resulting storm surges into account. about how Norwegian society is adapting to cli- In certain geographical areas, climate change mate change. Adaptation work must always be may result in a higher risk of damage caused by based on the best available knowledge about cli- natural disasters. Norway has good public and pri- mate change and how the changes can be vate insurance schemes for insurance against addressed. The Government therefore intends to such disasters. The Norwegian model provides ensure that the knowledge base for climate major benefits for society, since it gives effective change adaptation is strengthened through closer protection against the financial risk associated monitoring of climate change, continued expan- with extreme weather events. sion of climate change research and the develop- The local character of the impacts of climate ment of a national centre for climate services. change puts the municipalities in the front line in Adaptation policies and measures should build dealing with climate change. Higher precipitation on the best available knowledge. The Government levels and more intense precipitation will require therefore plans for regular updates of knowledge efficient systems for stormwater management in about the impacts of climate change and vulnera- towns, where there are large areas of impermea- bility and of assessments of adaptation needs in ble surfaces such as roads and pavements. Chal- Norway. Updates will be considered when sub- lenges will also arise in connection with the devel- stantial new knowledge is available, particularly opment of port facilities and densification of urban related to the assessment reports of the Intergov- areas. To enable the municipalities to ensure that ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Norwegian communities are resilient and sustain- Climate projections indicate a trend towards able in the future, adaptation to climate change more, and more intense, precipitation in Norway, must be made an integral part of municipal which will result in more stormwater runoff in responsibilities. The Government therefore urban areas, which may result in urban flooding. intends to draw up central government planning Figures for insurance claims show that stormwa- guidelines describing how the municipalities and ter is already causing a great deal of damage, and counties should integrate climate change adapta- this is increasing, particularly in towns where pop- tion into their land-use and general planning pro- ulation density is high. Higher precipitation in the cesses. The new guidelines on adaptation will be future is expected to exacerbate these problems. incorporated into the existing guidelines for cli- The municipalities are responsible for stormwater mate change mitigation and energy planning. management, and will have to deal with increasing Information resources, networks for sharing volumes of stormwater as a result of climate experience, and cooperation with regional authori- change. The Government will therefore appoint a ties will play an important part in climate change committee to evaluate the current legislation and adaptation work at municipal level. as appropriate make proposals for amendments to provide a better framework for the municipalities. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 7 Climate change adaptation in Norway

1 Introduction

Climate change is already happening: environmen- tal change is being observed on all continents and Box 1.1 The two-degree target in all the major oceans. The climatic changes that have been observed over the past 150 years cannot Norwegian climate policy is based on the tar- be explained unless anthropogenic greenhouse get of limiting the average rise in global tem- gas emissions are taken into account. The combus- perature to two degrees Celsius, which practi- tion of coal, oil and gas has generated large vol- cally every country in the world has adopted. umes of carbon dioxide (CO2). These releases, In order to achieve this global target, the inter- combined with greenhouse gas emissions from national community will have to take a more deforestation and forest degradation and other proactive approach than is the case today, and sources, have resulted in an increase in atmos- make a more rapid transition to a society with pheric greenhouse gas concentrations. According far lower greenhouse gas emissions around to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the middle of this century. Even if the two- (IPCC), the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations degree target is achieved, the IPCC expects is the main cause of global warming, which in turn climate change to have major impacts on results in climate change. Climate change has nature and society. impacts on the natural environment and major con- sequences for most sectors of society. The severity of the impacts of climate change stantly changing as a result of the natural variabil- on the environment and society will depend on ity of the climate system, but the pace of climate how much the climate changes, and also on soci- change is now so rapid that it will be difficult for ety’s adaptive capacity and willingness to factor many species and ecosystems to adapt. Moreover, climate change into planning and take active steps many species and ecosystems are already under to adapt to change. Most studies of the possible pressure for other reasons, such as habitat loss impacts of climate change are based on the and fragmentation, pollution, overharvesting and assumption that society will adapt to a rise of 2– the introduction of alien species. A large number 3 °C in global mean temperature towards the end of animal and plant species are included on the of this century. Relatively little is known about Norwegian Red List because their survival in Nor- adaptive capacity in the event of a larger rise in way is threatened. Species that live in Arctic and temperature, for example 4–6 °C. The IPCC mountain areas are adapted to a cold, harsh cli- stresses that there is a high risk that both natural mate, and are already established as high up or as and human systems will sustain substantial losses far north as possible. There is no alternative habi- and damage if the two-degree target is not met. tat for them to move to. This means that the very The policy set out in the present white paper is survival of species such as the polar bear and based on the premise that the climate is already ringed seal is threatened. There is little that can changing. Despite ambitious national and interna- be done to counteract this once global warming tional policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions, has happened. The most important means of the temperature will continue to rise until 2100. It ensuring the survival of Arctic and alpine species is therefore necessary to prepare society for the is therefore to cut greenhouse gas emissions. We expected effects of unavoidable climate change. need to recognise the likelihood that Norway will This white paper focuses on the challenges associ- lose some species as a result of climate change, ated with climate change, and the policy instru- and that new species will become established. The ments it proposes are designed to make Norway report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU more resilient in the face of climate change. 2010: 10) indicates that climate change will make Climate change will have a variety of impacts it an even more challenging task to protect Nor- on natural and human systems. Nature is con- way’s species and habitats. 8 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

More frequent and more severe extreme Climate change will have direct impacts on the weather events, such as heat waves, storms and primary industries and other sectors that are flooding, can be a severe test for society, as Nor- closely linked to the natural resource base. For way has experienced several times in recent example, new plant and animal diseases may years. Figures for insurance claims show that reduce agricultural productivity. Higher precipita- stormwater is already causing a great deal of dam- tion is also expected to give more difficult grow- age, and this is increasing, particularly in towns ing and harvesting conditions for agriculture. On where population density is high. Higher precipi- the other hand, a milder climate with more rainfall tation in the future is expected to exacerbate and a longer growing season may make it possible these problems. Norway seeks to maintain high to increase crop production and cultivate new spe- safety standards and ensure that people can feel cies that are generally grown further south today. safe in their homes and elsewhere. Climate Rising sea temperatures may make it difficult change will entail a higher risk of landslides and for species that are adapted to cold water to sur- flooding caused by intense rainfall and problems vive, or cause them to shift their distribution resulting from stormwater in built-up areas, so northwards. Norway is surrounded by clean, cold that people will face a constellation of risks differ- fjords and coastal waters, which puts the Norwe- ent from that they are used to dealing with. Areas gian aquaculture industry in a uniquely favourable that have previously been viewed as safe may position in Europe. Rising sea temperatures could become more vulnerable. therefore have major impacts, both negative and Climate change and social change are taking positive, on current production patterns. How- place simultaneously, and social change will influ- ever, the fisheries and aquaculture industries are ence our vulnerability to climate change, particu- used to adapting to wide natural variations in sea larly in towns. A growing proportion of the Nor- temperature and in the size of fish stocks. wegian population lives in urban areas, and the When CO2 comes into contact with water, car- growth of Norwegian towns is expected to con- bonic acid is formed. This process is causing tinue. All Norway’s largest towns are either on the ocean acidification, which may have major coast or near lakes and rivers. Higher and more impacts on marine life. The basic link between intense precipitation will require more efficient greenhouse gas emissions and ocean acidification systems for stormwater management in towns. is understood, but it is still very uncertain what Because of sea level rise, challenges will also arise acidification will mean for algae, other plants and in connection with the development of port facili- animals and thus for marine ecosystems as a ties. Moreover, there is a great deal of infrastruc- whole. Little is known about how the fisheries and ture in urban areas – buildings, roads, railways, aquaculture industries will be affected. sewerage systems and other structures. Infra- Changes in precipitation patterns will put pres- structure will be vulnerable in areas where cli- sure on the electricity infrastructure. Hydropower mate change brings more intense precipitation dams and transmission and distribution grids and a higher probability of local flooding caused must be sufficiently robust to withstand new by heavy rainfall. The electricity grid and ICT weather patterns. On the other hand, higher pre- infrastructure are more heavily used in densely cipitation may make it possible to increase elec- populated areas, and therefore more vulnerable to tricity production, resulting in higher earnings in unforeseen incidents. Disruption of the electricity the future. supply or ICT services can have greater conse- In our part of the world, climate change is quences for more people in a town. Infrastructure most marked in the Arctic, where the temperature is also essential for the business sector and thus is rising about twice as fast as the global mean for value creation and workplaces. temperature. If the trend that has been observed Because the business sector is so varied, there in the Arctic in recent years continues, it will have will also be wide variation in how climate change major consequences for the population and com- affects earning power and profitability. Business munities in the region, and particularly for indige- also has a vital role to play in Norway’s transition nous peoples, whose culture and livelihoods are to a low-emission economy and in taking into use closely linked to the natural environment. equipment and production methods that are World food production is vulnerable to climate adapted to a changed climate. In addition, the change. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report business sector provides products and services from 2007 highlights the risk of crop damage and that will play a large part in determining the resil- reduced crop productivity. Food production by the ience of Norwegian society to a changed climate. fisheries and aquaculture industries may also be 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 9 Climate change adaptation in Norway affected. At the same time, the Food and Agricul- the impacts of climate change outside Norway are ture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) not dealt with here, the possible implications for has warned that by 2050, food production must be poor countries and people nevertheless form a almost doubled to feed the growing population. backdrop to the present white paper. There is already a lack of clean drinking water in Climate change adaptation involves recognis- many parts of the world. Climate change is ing that the climate is changing, understanding expected to make water shortages more severe in the impacts, and taking steps either to prevent dry areas. In other areas, flooding may cause damage or to make use of opportunities that may drinking water quality to deteriorate. Rising sea arise. According to Adapting to a changing cli- levels are threatening low-lying areas and small mate (NOU 2010: 10), Norway is in a good posi- island states. These trends will exacerbate many tion to deal with climate change and its impacts, of the problems poor countries and people are but if we are to maintain a safe and secure society already facing. The IPCC has pointed out that a in the future, we must incorporate climate change great deal can be done to reduce risk through adaptation into planning processes today. adaptation and preventive measures. The present white paper is intended to provide The UN Secretary-General has repeatedly spo- a brief general account of the implications of cli- ken about climate change as a threat to continued mate change for Norwegian society and to set out growth and development in developing countries. a framework that will facilitate the development of The white paper Towards greener development adaptation strategies and identification of effective (Meld. St. 14 (2010–2011) states that Norway will adaptation measures by all those who are affected continue to facilitate adaptation by developing by climate change. countries to unavoidable climate change. Adapt- The white paper starts with a brief account of ing to a changing climate (NOU 2010: 10) con- the impacts of climate change in Norway and of cludes that climate change in other parts of the current adaptation policies in the sectors that are world will largely have an indirect impact on Nor- most directly affected. It then provides the gen- way, linked to Norway’s responsibility to support eral policy framework for adaptation in Norway the poorest and most vulnerable countries in their across sectors. efforts to adapt to a changing climate. Although

Box 1.2 Norwegian climate policy The Government’s aim is for Norway to become efforts in several other areas to reduce Nor- a low-emission economy by mid-century. The way’s greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, it most important cross-sectoral climate policy includes measures to enhance the carbon stock instruments are taxes, emissions trading and in forests. Most of the political parties con- the Pollution Control Act. In addition, a series of cluded a new agreement on climate policy in regulatory measures and schemes for individual June 2012, thus ensuring that Norwegian cli- sectors are intended to encourage the transition mate policy continues to be predictable and have process and cut greenhouse gas emissions. a long-term perspective. Norway has been pursuing an ambitious cli- The United Nations Framework Convention mate policy for a number of years. In April 2012, on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the the Government presented a new white paper framework for international efforts in this field. on Norwegian climate policy (Meld. St. 21 Its ultimate objective is to stabilise greenhouse (2011–2012)). This focused on how Norway can gas concentrations at a level that will prevent contribute to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, dangerous anthropogenic interference with the both in Norway and internationally. The Govern- climate system. The 2012 white paper on climate ment also announced that it would strengthen policy states that the Government will work policy instruments for the petroleum sector and towards an ambitious, broad-based climate establish a new climate and energy fund. The agreement that includes specific emission transport sector is to be made more climate- reduction commitments both for developed friendly by giving priority to public transport, countries and for major developing countries, cycling and walking. The measures set out in and that is in line with the two-degree target. the climate policy white paper will also intensify 10 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

The report Adapting to a changing climate, hundred responses were received during the con- which describes the impacts of climate change in sultation process after the report was published, Norway and the need for adaptation, has been an and they also provided important input for the important basis for this white paper. Almost one white paper. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 11 Climate change adaptation in Norway

2 The climate and climate change in Norway

2.1 The present climate and historical Precise observations of temperature and pre- climate variability cipitation from all parts of Norway are available from the late 1800s onwards. On the basis of these Norway’s long coastline and extensive mountain observations, we can conclude that mainland Nor- ranges make the country vulnerable to the forces way has warmed by about 0.8 °C in the past 100 of nature. There has always been considerable cli- years, which is in line with the rise in global mean mate variability in Norway, and the climate has temperature in the same period. The greatest rise important consequences for society. The climate in temperature has taken place in the most recent is milder in Norway than in other areas at the decades. Since the normal period 1961–90, the same latitude, mainly because the Gulf Stream growing season has become one to two weeks transports warm water northwards along the Nor- longer in most parts of Norway. The areas that wegian coast. Prevailing south-westerly winds experience hot days, defined as days when the carry warm, moist air towards the coast, particu- daily mean temperature is above 20 °C, have larly in winter, when low pressure systems are expanded considerably. normally a common phenomenon. However, Nor- way can also experience cold, dry winters, as it did for example in 1995–96 and 2009–10. Box 2.2 Natural climate variability Measurements of temperature, precipitation since the last Ice Age and wind show wide variation between years and between decades. This is mainly due to natural After the end of the last Ice Age a little more variability in the climate system. To see how the than 11 000 years ago, there was a warm climate changes over time, it is necessary to period in Norway when summer temperatures define reference periods. These are internation- were probably 1.5–2 °C higher than the nor- ally defined 30-year periods for calculating climate mal for 1961–90. This allowed pine trees to «normals». The current climate normal period is grow on parts of the Hardangervidda moun- 1961–90. Discussions of how much the climate tain plateau that are now above the treeline. has changed are often based on temperature, pre- There were also periods during the Middle cipitation and wind data for this period. Ages when Scandinavia had a generally mild climate, which allowed people to settle in Greenland. During the Little Ice Age in the mid-1700s, most Norwegian glaciers advanced Box 2.1 The North Atlantic to their greatest extent for several thousand Oscillation (NAO) has a strong years. The warm period during the Stone Age influence on Norway’s weather was caused by variations in the position of the Earth relative to the Sun. The warm period The weather in Norway varies considerably during the Middle Ages and the cold period a from year to year. Whether the winters are little less than 300 years ago were probably mild and stormy or relatively cold and dry is related to variability in solar activity and the linked to natural variability in the atmospheric frequency of major volcanic eruptions. Much circulation over the North Atlantic. This pat- of the natural climate variability is apparent at tern of variability is known as the North Atlan- the regional rather than the global scale. For tic Oscillation (NAO), and is an important fac- example, the warm medieval period was most tor behind the wide natural fluctuations from marked at northern latitudes, while the trop- year to year in wind, temperature and precipi- ics were probably not much warmer than they tation throughout mainland Norway. are today. 12 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Norway’s climate is also wetter than it used to be. Annual precipitation has risen by about 20 % Growing season, snow cover, glaciers since 1900, with the steepest rise after 1980. Over The growing season in Norway, defined as the the most recent 20 years, there have only been number of days when the mean temperature is four years when annual precipitation was lower above 5 °C, is expected to become considerably than the normal value for 1961–90, whereas in the longer during this century. Projections show an first 20 years of the period (1900–20) there was increase of one to two months in much of the not a single year when annual precipitation was country and two to three months in some upland higher than the current normal level. Precipita- areas. tion has risen most in winter, by about 17 % rela- The duration of snow cover will decrease tive to 1961–90. In the wettest parts of Western throughout Norway up to 2100. Figure 2.2 shows Norway, winter precipitation has risen by 25 % in that the greatest changes are expected in low- the same period. lying areas, where some projections indicate that the length of the snow season will decline by two to three months. This means that there will be 2.2 The climate of the future – climate many years with hardly any snow in the lowlands, projections for 2050–2100 but still certain years with considerable amounts of snow. In the mountains and inland parts of Fin- Climate models are used as a basis for computing nmark county, the average maximum snow depth projections of how temperature, precipitation and may increase until mid-century as a result of wind may change towards the end of this century. higher winter precipitation, and thereafter The model simulations include a number of differ- decline. ent values for model variables and a range of other Glaciers fluctuate in size because of variability assumptions. The results of the simulations are in summer temperatures and winter precipitation. analysed and used as a basis for projections. The Inland glaciers in Norway, for example in the projections that are presented below are based on Jotunheimen mountains, will probably continue to a compilation of a large number of different pro- retreat as summer temperatures rise. Trends for jections and a combination of different scenarios coastal glaciers are driven more by changes in for global greenhouse gas emissions.1 winter precipitation, and they will continue to advance as long as snowfall in winter exceeds ice melt in summer. By 2100, more than 90 % of all Temperature Norwegian mainland glaciers may have disap- All climate projections indicate that the climate peared, and the total area of glaciers may have will become warmer in all parts of Norway and in declined by 30–40 %. These figures are based on all seasons during this century. It is estimated that mean values for temperature projections. the annual mean temperature in Norway will rise by 2.3–4.6 °C towards the end of the century rela- tive to the value for the normal period 1961–90. Precipitation The temperature rise will be largest in inland Annual precipitation for the country as a whole is areas, North Norway and Svalbard. There is con- expected to rise. Projections indicate a rise of 5– siderable uncertainty associated with such projec- 30 % in annual mean precipitation by 2100 relative tions, and the temperature changes may be either to the period 1961–90. The mean projections for larger or smaller than the interval quoted here. Norway as a whole indicate a rise of about 20 % in autumn, winter and spring, and about 10 % in sum- mer. Mean projections for different regions indi- cate that autumn precipitation will rise by more than 25 % in all coastal areas from the southern- most tip of Norway to western Finnmark. They 1 I. Hanssen-Bauer, H. Drange, E.J. Førland, L.A. Roald, K.Y. Børsheim, H. Hisdal, D. Lawrence, A. Nesje, S. Sandven, A. also indicate a 25 % increase in winter precipita- Sorteberg, S. Sundby, K. Vasskog and B. Ådlandsvik (2009) tion in Eastern Norway and inland areas of Nord- Klima i Norge 2100. Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU Klimatil- Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag counties. Summer passing, Norsk klimasenter, September 2009, Oslo. (The Climate in Norway in 2100. Background material for Offi- rainfall in Eastern and Southern Norway may cial Norwegian Report on climate change adaptation. In decrease somewhat, while it may increase by Norwegian only.) about 20 % in Nordland county. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 13 Climate change adaptation in Norway

NUMBER OF DAYS

> + 5

-5 to +5

-20 to -5

-35 to -20

-50 to -35

-65 to -50

-80 to -65

-100 to -80

< -100

Figure 2.1 Map showing projected changes in the number of days of snow cover in Norway, 2071–21001 1 Example of a projection based on emissions scenario B2 (IPCC, SRES B2, medium global growth in emissions) and the global climate model ECHAM/MPI (relative to the normal period 1961–90). Source: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013 14 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

There are large differences between the upper the longer term lead to problems with drinking and lower limits of the range of precipitation pro- water supplies and agriculture in certain parts of jections throughout the country. The mean projec- Norway. Summer droughts may increase the need tion indicates a trend close to that observed dur- for irrigation and the risk of forest fires. ing the 20th century, while the high projection is closer to the trend we have observed over the past 20–30 years. In many areas, the high projection Flooding indicates a rise of more than 50 % in autumn, win- Changes in precipitation and temperature pat- ter or spring precipitation. terns will also result in changes in flooding pat- The projections show that the number of days terns in Norway. With higher temperatures, of heavy precipitation will rise during this century, spring floods will occur earlier, while lower snow- and that the amount of precipitation that falls on fall will result in smaller snowmelt floods in the such days may also rise. This applies to all sea- larger rivers. When more precipitation falls in the sons and all regions. The models do not provide form of rain instead of snow, flooding in late enough detail for calculations relating to heavy autumn and winter may become more frequent. In showers, but the results nevertheless indicate those parts of the country where the largest that the frequency of heavy rain showers may rise floods are caused by rain, floods will become in the future. This may increase the risk of thun- more severe. More frequent intense rainfall may derstorms and lightning strikes. cause particular problems in small, fast-flowing rivers and streams and in urban areas.

Drought Higher temperatures, increased evaporation and Landslides and avalanches the possibility of lower rainfall in summer may There are many different types of landslides and result in longer periods of low flow in rivers, and avalanches, and the causal relationships between soil moisture and groundwater deficit. This may in these events and climate change are more com-

Figure 2.2 Concrete avalanche defence, Hardanger municipality Photo: Stig Tronvold/Samfoto/NTBscanpix 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 15 Climate change adaptation in Norway plex than those between flooding and landslides part of the world to another, and is more rapid at and avalanches. However, there is a clear link high latitudes, because CO2 dissolves more read- between precipitation, temperature and wind con- ily in cold water. The current global climate mod- ditions, and different types of avalanches. Higher els show that acidification is most rapid where temperatures will reduce the risk of dry snow ava- seawater temperatures are lowest, i.e. in the polar lanches at altitudes below 500–1000 metres, but regions. may increase the risk of wet snow avalanches and Acidification is a direct result of the higher slush flows. A higher frequency of intense precipi- atmospheric concentration of CO2, and is taking tation events may also increase the risk of land- place independently of the greenhouse effect and slides and flood-related debris flows. Quick clay global warming. Changes in circulation patterns slides can also be triggered by prolonged intense in the oceans and atmosphere, and stratification in rainfall and river erosion, although in most cases the oceans, influence uptake of CO2 in seawater they are triggered by human activity. Changes in and the degree of acidification in different areas. precipitation patterns may also increase the risk The pace of ocean acidification is closely of landslides and avalanches in areas that have not related to trends in CO2 emissions to the atmos- suffered from them previously. phere. Studies show that in Norwegian waters, pH can be expected to drop by more than 0.5 units by the end of this century. The chemical processes Wind that result in acidification are clearly understood, Climate models show little or no change in aver- but less is known about what impacts acidification age wind conditions in Norway up to 2100. How- will have on marine ecosystems. ever, there are indications that high wind speeds may become more frequent. Sea-level rise Global sea level has risen by about 17 cm in the Waves past 100 years. In a longer perspective, global sea A few studies have been conducted of future wave level has risen by 120 metres since the last glacial conditions based on selected climate projections. maximum about 20 000 years ago, but has been These show relatively small changes along the more or less stable for the past 4 000 to 5 000 Norwegian coast, with the exception of the North years. Despite this, most of the Norwegian coast Sea and Skagerrak. Here, it is estimated that the has experienced a net drop in sea level since the significant wave height of the most extreme waves last Ice Age. This is because the land surface has will increase by 6–8 %. Because of systematic been rising considerably after the Fennoscandian weaknesses in the models, it is not yet possible to ice sheet melted around 11 500 years ago, so that draw any conclusions about how wave conditions the crust was no longer depressed by the weight may change in the Barents Sea. of the ice and could slowly rebound. Global mean sea level is now rising by about 3 mm per year. In its Fourth Assessment Report, Sea temperature the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change There have only been a limited number of studies (IPCC) presented 18–56 cm as a possible range of involving modelling of changes in sea tempera- global average sea rise up to 2100. However, these ture in Norwegian waters. It has been estimated figures do not capture the full effect of melting of that the annual mean temperature of the North the major ice sheets on land. This is a weakness of Sea may rise by 1.5–2 °C. the underlying data, particularly since more recent studies show that the Greenland ice sheet seems to be melting more rapidly than previously Ocean acidification assumed. The estimates of sea-level rise up to Since the beginning of the industrial era, the 2100 are very uncertain, primarily because it is oceans have absorbed about 40 % of the CO2 emis- uncertain how rapidly glaciers and the large ice sions from fossil fuel consumption and cement sheets in Greenland and Western Antarctica are production. This is making the world’s seas more likely to melt. acidic. The rate of acidification varies from one 16 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

3 Impacts of climate change on nature and society

Climate change will affect everyone, but the loss of ecosystems throughout the world, flooding severity of its impacts will vary from one part of in densely populated coastal areas, prolonged the world to another. There will be wide geo- drought in larger and larger areas, and a decline graphical variations within Norway as well. In in global food production. addition, the impacts of climate change will vary As the temperature rises, climate change will between sectors. Much of Norway’s infrastruc- become more and more marked during the pres- ture is vulnerable to wind and weather. All bio- ent century. We can expect more frequent mass-based products (food, fodder, fuel, chemi- extreme weather events such as intense rainfall, cals and so on) are derived from the natural envi- flooding, and landslides and avalanches. At the ronment, which also provides many other essen- same time, the impacts of climate change on soci- tial ecosystem services. ety depend on many different factors that are con- Many infrastructure assets, such as roads, rail- stantly changing. Climate change adaptation is at ways, ports and breakwaters, the electricity grid an early stage, and our experience is limited. Our and buildings, have long operational lifetimes. knowledge and understanding of climate change The average lifetime of buildings in Norway is 78 and its impacts on nature and society are steadily years. Many of the buildings being constructed improving. now will therefore still be standing towards the end of this century, and will need to be resilient to changes such as an increase in the intensity of 3.1 The natural environment precipitation. The adaptive capacity of human societies depends strongly on how they are organ- Climate change has major impacts on species and ised, the resources, tools and data at their dis- ecosystems. In addition, it acts together with posal, and the available knowledge on climate many other pressures such as habitat loss and change. The adaptive capacity of society is also fragmentation, pollution, harvesting, invasive important for understanding the impacts of cli- alien species, traffic and other disturbance by mate change, and for identifying strategies and humans. The overall result can be to put great specific solutions that can be used to increase cli- pressure on the natural environment. If there are mate resilience. several significant environmental pressures acting In recent years there has been a great deal of in the same area at the same time, this increases research on the effects and impacts of global the risk of negative impacts such as loss of biodi- warming. We have learnt more about the possible versity. Land use change is considered to be the impacts of climate change on different elements greatest threat to biodiversity today, but climate of the natural environment and sectors of society. change is expected to become a more and more Most analyses are based on the assumption that important factor. In the marine environment, the global mean temperature will rise by 2–3 °C. We pace of ocean acidification is expected to be par- know less about what is likely to happen if the ticularly high in cold Arctic waters, which will global mean temperature rises by as much as 4– alter living conditions for marine organisms. 6 °C. There are several reasons for this. First and The goods and services supplied by the natu- foremost, there is considerable uncertainty about ral environment are known as ecosystem ser- the effects and impacts of such a dramatic degree vices, and they can be divided into four categories: of warming. The more we allow atmospheric – Provisioning services: for example food, greenhouse gas concentrations to rise, the more energy, fresh water, medicinal resources and serious the impacts will be. The UN Intergovern- raw materials for building; mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has – Regulating services: for example water purifi- warned that if the two-degree target is not met, cation, air quality regulation, flood control and there is a risk of mass species extinctions and a erosion prevention; 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 17 Climate change adaptation in Norway

variables. This is a slow process, and climate change is a problem because the changes are now happening so rapidly that many species do not have time to adapt to them. A milder climate in Norway may lead to changes such as earlier sex- ual maturity in animals, earlier flowering in plants, a longer growing season, the earlier arrival of migratory birds and shifts of spawning grounds in fish. This can disturb the balance of nature and ecological interactions. For example, migratory birds may arrive on their breeding grounds before there are sufficient numbers of the insects they depend on, or plants may flower before polli- nating insects have become active. Climate change may also result in an upward and north- ward shift in vegetation zones, and other species associated with the different vegetation zones will also have to move to survive. Changes in land use may create barriers that prevent species from moving to new areas. The UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment concluded that throughout the world, species are Figure 3.1 The violet copper (Lycaena helle) is being lost at much higher rates than natural back- red-listed in Norway, and is dependent on open ground rates.2 However, there is considerable semi-natural vegetation types found in traditional uncertainty associated with the figures in the farmland. assessment. Climate change may reinforce these Photo: Ove Bergersen/Samfoto/NTBscanpix developments. According to the IPCC, between 20 and 30 % of the species that have been evaluated are at risk of disappearing if the global tempera- – Cultural services: for example recreation and ture rises by more than 2 °C during the present mental and physical health; century. The loss of biodiversity is one of the main – Supporting services: for example soil forma- reasons for intensifying efforts to combat climate tion, nutrient cycling and primary production. change. The estimates of biodiversity loss illus- trate the importance of adaptation to such major Healthy ecosystems can provide a first line of processes of change, and in addition, of being able defence against the impacts of climate change: for to make use of any benefits they bring. example, floodplain wetlands can absorb water Climate change is already happening, and will 1 and thus moderate flooding. Ecosystem services continue, driven by the greenhouse gases that are thus crucial for life on Earth and as a basis for have already accumulated in the atmosphere. The health, welfare and value creation in any society. extent of climate change will be determined by In addition, nature has an intrinsic value that we further greenhouse gas emissions, but climate have an obligation to safeguard. change will continue, together with ocean acidifi- cation and the melting of glaciers, even if we are able to limit the global temperature rise to no Impacts of climate change on the natural environment more than two degrees Celsius. Knowledge of The climate in an area determines the type of nat- these processes of change makes it possible to ural environment that is found there, and species consider them in the context of other environmen- and ecosystems are adapted to specific climatic tal pressures such as land-use change and habitat conditions such as temperature and rainfall pat- fragmentation, harvesting, the spread of alien spe- terns. Moreover, species and ecosystems are con- cies and pollution. By developing an integrated tinually adapting to natural fluctuations in such

1 Rusch, G. M. (2012): Climate and ecosystem services. The 2 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and potential of Norwegian ecosystems for climate mitigation Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resour- and adaptation. – NINA Report 791. ces Institute, Washington, DC 18 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Figure 3.2 Lupins – an alien species in Norway Photo: Marianne Gjørv/Ministry of the Environment management regime, it is possible to minimise the assessments of species that do not occur naturally losses and damage caused by climate change. in Norway. They include 134 species that are not The introduction of invasive alien species is a yet established in Norway, but that are known to major cause of biodiversity losses today. Some pose an ecological risk in nearby countries, and new species spread to Norway through natural that may become established here if climate processes, while others are introduced by human change makes conditions more suitable for them. activity. These can displace naturally occurring species and cause irreversible changes in ecosys- tems. Climate change in different ecosystems A longer growing season and shorter and Rising temperatures, higher precipitation and milder winters may provide more suitable condi- more frequent and more severe extreme weather tions for alien species that are not yet present in affect all ecosystems, from the highest mountains Norway, and allow species that are already pres- to deep-sea areas off the Norwegian coast. Marine ent to become established and spread further. For and coastal ecosystems are also under pressure example, rising sea temperatures have already from ocean acidification and sea level rise. resulted in changes in marine biodiversity. The Alpine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable Pacific oyster, which is classified as a very high to higher temperatures because the species found risk on Norway’s Black List of alien species, has there have nowhere else to move to, and many of already become established at a number of sites them are adapted to climatic extremes and low along the southern half of the Norwegian coast- temperatures. In response to the changing cli- line. A rising volume of shipping in Arctic waters mate, the treeline and vegetation zones are shift- will also increase the risk of introducing alien spe- ing upwards and the area of suitable habitat for cies from the Pacific Ocean; one route of introduc- alpine species is shrinking. This affects species tion is ballast water containing alien species. The such as the Arctic fox, wild reindeer and various report Alien species in Norway – with the Norwe- alpine plants, which like species in Arctic ecosys- gian Black List 2012 includes ecological risk tems do not have alternative suitable habitats. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 19 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 3.1 Wild reindeer need stable cold weather Throughout the cold winter months, wild rein- access to their food supplies through a long, deer dig down through the snow to find lichens cold winter, the calves born in spring will be and evergreen plants. A rise in mean tempera- smaller and lighter and therefore less likely to ture increases the risk of repeated melting and survive. This is only one of the climate-related freezing of the surface snow. This results in the threats to wild reindeer – others include formation of a hard crust of ice that makes it changes in disease status and in the species more difficult for the reindeer to reach food composition of the vegetation on their grazing under the snow. If adult reindeer have poorer grounds.

Figure 3.3 A wild reindeer on winter grazing grounds in the Dovre mountain range Photo: Tore Wuttudal/Samfoto/NTBscanpix

Competition from new species will also be a threat a result of changes in snow cover and the forma- – for example, the Arctic fox can be displaced and tion of ice crust may also affect threatened species outcompeted by the red fox. These changes are such as the Arctic fox and snowy owl. Willow taking place at the same time as infrastructure grouse and ptarmigan populations may also be development and other human activities are put- affected because they are more important prey for ting increasing pressure on mountain. The wild predator species when numbers of small rodents reindeer, a species for which Norway has a special are low. international responsibility, is dependent on large Climate change in the Arctic is discussed fur- continuous areas of natural habitat in the moun- ther in Chapter 9. tains, and is particularly vulnerable to such Higher temperatures and changes in precipita- changes. tion patterns are also causing glacier melt in Nor- Small rodents are key species in alpine ecosys- way. Estimates indicate that the volume of the gla- tems, and disruption of their population cycles as ciers may drop by 30–40 % by 2100, and that only 20 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway the largest glaciers will still exist by then. In addi- and result in poorer recruitment to the adult popu- tion to the loss of an important landscape element, lation. this process will change flow patterns and temper- Many marginal areas of cultural landscape, ature in glacial meltwater rivers, and thus alter liv- particularly in North Norway, along the coast and ing conditions for many freshwater species. in the mountains, are becoming overgrown by For forest ecosystems, the growing season is trees and scrub because they are no longer used expected to become longer, which will result in and actively managed. This is resulting in the loss faster growth, a rise in the proportion of trees that of species-rich habitats such as hay meadows and prefer a warmer climate and perhaps changes in pastures. Climate change may speed up this pro- the species composition of forests. Rising tempera- cess and thus make active management even tures may also result in the northward and upward more important. spread of forest. According to the IPCC, northerly Wetlands perform a number of important func- forests will be particularly vulnerable to climate tions, including water filtration and purification change in the long term, but also in the short term and the storage of large quantities of carbon, if climate change results in more damage by fac- nitrous oxide and methane. Floodplain wetlands tors such as storms, pest outbreaks, drought and also provide protection against the erosion of river forest fires. Such factors can be serious threats to banks and reduce the effects of moderate levels of forest health, vitality and productivity. Research flooding. In addition they are important habitats shows that forests where biodiversity is higher are for a wide range of species, such as migratory better able to provide both provisioning and regu- birds that use them as staging areas. Many wet- lating services, including water purification and lands in Norway, and particularly peatlands, have the maintenance of biodiversity.3, 4 been damaged and lost through drainage and con- According to the 2010 Norwegian Red List, version into farmland, the removal of peat for fuel, about half of all threatened or near-threatened and other types of development. Because water species in Norway are associated with forests. flow is already high in river systems, higher pre- However, there is nothing to suggest that the situ- cipitation may increase the transport of soil and ation of Norway’s threatened and near-threatened sediment, exacerbating erosion. Canalisation of species has deteriorated between 2006 (when the rivers tends to result in faster water flow, and previous Red List was published) and 2010. For higher and more intense precipitation can example, none of the woodpecker species in Nor- increase the risk of flooding. way are any longer on the Red List: in other words Climate change may influence biomass pro- they are all considered to have viable populations duction, life cycles and species composition in in Norway. The goshawk has been downgraded freshwater ecosystems. Together with an increase from vulnerable in 2006 to near-threatened in in extreme precipitation events and flooding, this 2010. Knowledge about the impacts of climate will result in more runoff, transport of particulate change on red-listed species is very limited. In matter and leaching of nutrients and other pollut- general, a warmer climate will make conditions in ants. Higher erosion rates along river banks and Norway more suitable for species with a southerly runoff of particulate matter and nutrients from or south-westerly distribution, but more difficult farmland may become a greater problem, and for species associated with the most northerly for- such tendencies have already been registered in ests. smaller rivers in Eastern Norway. Particulate mat- Cervid populations may also be affected by cli- ter and pollutants are transported downstream to mate change. For example, higher temperatures coastal waters, adding to the overall environmen- and an earlier spring may mean that moose calves tal pressure on marine ecosystems. are no longer born at the right time to be able to Temperatures in excess of 20 ˚C can be critical feed on the most nutritious plant shoots. This will for sensitive and important fish species such as reduce calf body weight, which in turn will reduce salmon, trout and Arctic char. In parts of Norway, the probability of their surviving the first winter prolonged periods of summer drought and low water flow are expected, which will also make high water temperatures more likely. Rivers that are regulated for hydropower production, where a 3 Gamfeldt, L. et al. Higher levels of multiple ecosystem ser- minimum water flow has been fixed, may be par- vices are found in forests with more tree species. Nature Communications (2012) ticularly vulnerable. 4 Aerts, R. and Honnay, O. Forest restoration, biodiversity In marine waters, climate change will result in and ecosystem functioning. BMC Ecol. 2011: 11:29. higher temperatures, and a higher CO2 content in 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 21 Climate change adaptation in Norway sea water will lead to ocean acidification, which affect species composition and total production in may have serious impacts on marine ecosystems. marine ecosystems. A large proportion of CO2 of anthropogenic origin Norway’s coastal waters will be influenced by is absorbed by the oceans, where it reacts with what happens in the open sea as the climate water to form carbonic acid, making the seawater changes, and also by land-based processes. There more acidic (lowering the pH). The changes will has been a decline in several coastal cod stocks in first become apparent in northern waters, recent years. Several factors are probably involved because cold water can dissolve more CO2 than in this, one of which may be climate change. A warmer water. This can have a range of impacts, plan for rebuilding coastal cod stocks has been particularly on organisms that build calcium car- adopted. It has been suggested that a combination bonate shells and skeletons. They include coral- of higher water temperature, eutrophication and line algae, zooplankton, crustaceans, molluscs sediment deposition explains the loss of sugar and corals. There are many cold-water coral reefs kelp forests (important as a nursery area for in Norwegian waters, including the world’s larg- coastal cod and other species) from many areas est known cold-water coral reef complex. Coral along the southern half of the Norwegian coast- reefs are among the most species-rich ecosys- line. Climate change will have a number of tems, and are a vital habitat for many types of fish. impacts on wild stocks of anadromous salmonids Ocean acidification has negative impacts on these at different stages of their life cycle. A higher ecosystems, and by the end of this century, up to water temperature may for example result in 70 % of all Norway’s coral communities are changes in the numbers and distribution of impor- expected to show signs of reef erosion. Phyto- tant food species for anadromous salmonids in plankton form the basis of marine ecosystems, coastal waters and the open sea, and of disease and the zooplankton that graze on them are essen- organisms and parasites such as salmon lice. On tial food for many fish species. Some plankton spe- the other hand, higher precipitation will increase cies have calcareous skeletons, and may not sur- water flow in rivers and the freshwater content in vive in more acidic seawater. Such changes at low the coastal zone. This may improve conditions for levels in food chains can have major impacts at juvenile salmonids in rivers and reduce the higher trophic levels. impacts of salmon lice. It is important to maintain Higher sea temperatures also enable new spe- the genetic diversity of wild salmon stocks, among cies to spread into Norwegian waters from further other things by reducing genetic interaction south, while other species extend their range fur- between farmed and wild salmon, since this will ther northwards. Newly-hatched fish larvae are ensure that the species as a whole and the differ- dependent on specific types of plankton. In the ent stocks are more resilient to changes in condi- North Sea, quantities of the common copepod tions resulting from climate change. Higher pre- Calanus finmarchicus have dropped considerably cipitation will also result in more runoff from land, as the sea temperature has risen; at the same which may lead to sediment deposition and pollu- time, the quantities of a plankton species that pre- tion and subsequently to more frequent algal fers higher temperatures but is less nutritious blooms, sometimes of toxic algae. have increased. Spawning of C. finmarchicus and Seabirds along the coast are subject to a range the commercially most important fish species is of different pressures, many of which are caused normally synchronised. A decline in C. finmarchi- by human activity – pollution, fisheries, predators, cus and an increase in plankton species that disturbance by people, habitat degradation and spawn later in the season may result in a mis- the introduction of alien species. Many seabird match between spring-spawning fish and their populations have shown a dramatic decline in prey, and also between seabirds and marine mam- recent years. Moreover, a number of seabirds are mals and the herring. Some fish species will specialised feeders, which makes them particu- expand their distribution in response to climate larly sensitive to climate change and changes in change, while species belonging to Arctic ecosys- the availability of prey species such as sandeels, tems, such as Arctic char and polar cod, may dis- herring and capelin. appear from parts of the Barents Sea because of Climate change will also have consequences changes in food supplies in the form of zooplank- for outdoor recreation. Shorter duration of snow ton species associated with the marginal ice zone. cover will reduce opportunities for winter sports However, overall, it is very uncertain how in some southern and low-lying parts of Norway, changes in the distribution of fish stocks will and may encourage more people to travel to the mountains to find good snow conditions. The boat- 22 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

sons, including food price spikes, more unstable food markets and repercussions of the global Box 3.2 Tipping points in financial crisis. The reasons for unstable and at ecosystems times high food prices are complex and include The UN report Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 high oil prices, the use of agricultural land for pur- warns that changes in ecosystems may be poses other than food production, and a growing irreversible if they are pushed past «tipping demand for food in emerging economies. Major points», beyond which the ecosystem shifts to food-producing countries have also introduced a new state and changes character. It is diffi- export restrictions. In the last few years, extreme cult to predict how close we are to particular weather conditions in important food-producing tipping points, but if they are reached the countries have also resulted in lower crop yields. resulting changes may cause many species to There is still a great deal of potential for develop- become extinct, which would also have ing more effective and sustainable global fisher- impacts on human food supplies and on bio- ies, aquaculture and agriculture, but it will be a mass production. challenging task for the world community to ensure the necessary increase in food production in the time ahead. Climate change and higher average tempera- ing and bathing season in summer will be longer, tures may result in a greater risk of extreme which may result in more activity along the coast- weather events such as flooding and drought. In line. The changes will open up opportunities for addition to reductions in crop yields, climate outdoor recreation and the travel and tourism change may increase the prevalence of animal and industry in these areas, but more activity may also plant diseases. Drought and water shortages are increase the pressure on the natural environment already causing problems for agriculture in many in the mountains, in vulnerable Arctic areas and large food-producing countries. Areas where food along the coastline. In a warmer and wetter cli- security is already poor and where the population mate, scrub and woodland will encroach more is least equipped to adapt to such changes are quickly on open cultural landscape, and this will probably also most vulnerable to climate change. also have impacts on opportunities for outdoor All in all, climate change entails a risk of changes recreation, for example if paths become over- in the basis for world food production, which may grown and blocked. Higher precipitation and cause instability in food production and food mar- more intense precipitation episodes can cause kets. Norway is largely self-sufficient in seafood, more damage to paths and other facilities for pub- meat, eggs and milk, and about half of the popula- lic access. Climate change may also affect outdoor tion’s nutritional needs are met by food produced recreation through factors such as more frequent in Norway. Norway is a major seafood exporter, drought, a greater risk of forest fires and the and exported seafood to a value of more than spread of tick-borne diseases. NOK 50 billion in both 2011 and 2012. However, over the past 10 years, the value of annual imports of agricultural goods into the country has dou- 3.2 Food production bled, and reached about NOK 43 billion in 2012. Climate change that has impacts on food produc- World food production has increased a great deal tion in other countries will therefore also affect in recent decades, in step with the rising global Norway. If seafood is included, Norway is cur- population. According to the Food and Agricul- rently a significant net exporter of food. Climate ture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), change, involving for example higher air and sea the proportion of people who are undernourished temperatures, ocean acidification, unstable has been reduced in the past 40 years, from about weather and changes in precipitation, will have 33 % of the world population in about 1970 to impacts on food production in Norway as well. A 12.5 % today.5 It now appears that the decline in moderate rise in temperature combined with ade- undernourishment has stopped for various rea- quate water supplies may allow an increase in our food production, particularly in northern parts of 5 FAO, WFP and IFAD. 2012. The State of Food Insecurity in the country and upland areas, but higher tempera- the World 2012. Economic growth is necessary but not suf- tures and more precipitation may also result in ficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome, FAO. Figure corrected from 15?% to 12.5?% in the more damage by plant pests such as insects, translation viruses and fungi, including species that are 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 23 Climate change adaptation in Norway already present and new species. Higher tempera- coastal infrastructure. The sea will become tures, more moisture and a longer growing sea- warmer and also more acidic, as a result of the son may also result in a more varied weed flora uptake of large quantities of CO2 from the atmos- that will benefit from the longer growing season, phere. There are signs that fish stocks are shifting making it necessary to use larger quantities of further northwards and that more southerly spe- chemical pesticides. Climate change may also cies are moving into Norwegian waters, among result in changes in the degradation of chemical other things in response to higher seawater tem- pesticides and their environmental impacts. Fur- peratures. Ocean acidification may have major thermore, higher precipitation and unstable impacts on calcifying organisms, and thus on food weather may make it more difficult to carry out chains and the availability of food for species at plant protection measures at the appropriate time higher trophic levels. Extensive research is being of year. done in this field, but there is still little detailed Norway has a short growing season and a cold and reliable knowledge about the impacts these climate, and agricultural areas are fragmented. changes will have on marine ecosystems. Climate There is little arable land in relation to the size of change may also affect seafood safety. Inputs of the population, but large areas of grassland and contaminants and their spread will be changed by pasture. Norway is a high-cost country, and there higher precipitation and runoff from land, rising is intense competition for skilled labour. These atmospheric deposition and releases from sedi- factors, together with economic developments ments and sea ice, and more human activity in the and global trade agreements, influence the devel- Arctic. Furthermore, rising temperatures and opment of the Norwegian agricultural sector. ocean acidification may influence the transforma- A warmer climate is likely to affect animal tion and degradation of contaminants, and there- health and welfare, and this applies both to live- fore their toxicity. stock and to wild species. Temperature has a con- There is great uncertainty associated with the siderable effect, and in particular, winter tempera- economic consequences of climate change for the tures above a certain threshold may allow a num- fisheries industry, and it is therefore difficult to ber of organisms that until now have not been make any quantitative estimates for this sector. found naturally in Norway to become established. More frequent extreme weather events and Higher moisture levels will have a similar effect sea level rise will have impacts on fisheries and for certain plant and animal species. Climate aquaculture infrastructure and on coastal roads. change and globalisation may result in outbreaks Boats, equipment, safety installations and other of new animal diseases, including diseases that infrastructure may have to withstand more severe can also be transmitted to people, or allow known weather conditions, and must be designed and diseases to become established in new areas. Wild dimensioned appropriately. If climate change animals may also be infected, spreading diseases results in more frequent polar lows and an over larger areas and making them more difficult increase in wave heights, this may cause prob- to control. Climate change may particularly affect lems, especially for smaller vessels. the prevalence and spread of vector-borne dis- For the aquaculture industry, temperature is a eases that are transmitted by blood-sucking key factor, among other things for growth rates, organisms such as ticks and mosquitoes. utilisation of feed, algal blooms and disease. Con- Reindeer husbandry is a particularly vulnera- ditions will become less optimal for farmed spe- ble sector, and may be severely affected by cli- cies that are adapted to cold water as the sea tem- mate change. Ice crust may form on grazing areas perature rises. In the long term, rising sea temper- in winter, entailing a risk of heavy stock losses. ature may result in changes in which species are Climate change may also bring a greater risk of farmed, which are the best areas for aquaculture stress caused by insects. On the other hand, a production and where facilities are located. higher average temperature may mean that sum- The nature and level of the risks associated mer grazing grounds can be used for longer peri- with communicable diseases in aquaculture spe- ods of the year. Higher precipitation may also cies may also change with a rise in seawater tem- result in better food supplies for reindeer because perature. Higher precipitation will result in a lichens will grow faster, but this is based on the greater proportion of fresh water in the fjords: this assumption that the lichens are not outcompeted may influence current patterns in these areas and by other species. thus alter the patterns of spread of pathogens. It Climate change will have impacts on the may also be necessary to change the composition marine environment, fisheries, aquaculture and 24 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 3.3 Norwegian seafood contributes to global food security The UN Conference on Sustainable Develop- the Norwegian fishing and aquaculture industry ment (Rio+20) in June 2012 stressed the crucial provides 33 million meals of seafood every day. role of fisheries and aquaculture in global food Sustainable resource management and aquacul- security. Norway is a net exporter of food prod- ture management, and Norwegian fisheries and ucts, mainly because of its large-scale produc- aquaculture technology, also contribute indi- tion of seafood, 95 % of which is exported. We rectly to global food security, and Norwegian are the second largest exporter of seafood in the management expertise is in great demand inter- world, and in 2012 exported about 2.3 million nationally. FAO estimates that fishing and aqua- tonnes of seafood to a value of NOK 51.6 billion culture currently meet about 8 % of global food to more than 150 countries. It is estimated that needs.

Figure 3.4 Norwegian salmon Photo: Richard Hauglin/NTBscanpix 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 25 Climate change adaptation in Norway of fish feed in response to higher seawater tem- into water pipelines and other parts of the water peratures. supply infrastructure. There is no satisfactory Aquaculture facilities may need to meet high information on which parts of the water distribu- technical standards to withstand extreme weather tion system are most vulnerable. The situation events. For example, it is important to avoid dam- may deteriorate if the drinking water and sewer- age that may allow fish to escape from these facili- age pipelines become overloaded. ties. In future, raw water from drinking water sources is likely to be of poorer quality, and prob- lems in the water pipelines are likely to arise more 3.3 Human life and health frequently. The National Institute of Public Health and the Norwegian Directorate of Health have Public health is generally good in Norway. This assessed the vulnerability of parts of the drinking gives us a good starting point for coping with water pipeline system to be high. The vulnerabil- changes in health risks. Climate-related factors ity of raw water sources and water treatment always affect people’s health, and climate is plants is also relatively high, but lower than is the already a general risk factor in Norway. case for water pipelines.6 A warmer climate may affect public health in a Food- and water-borne infections are among number of ways, but the main effect will be to the commonest infections both in Norway and in intensify the health risks posed by today’s climate. other parts of the world. They are considered to The quality of drinking water may become poorer, be particularly sensitive to climate change, and increasing the risk of waterborne infections. The show seasonal variation)*. prevalence of communicable diseases may rise as Climate change may also entail a higher risk of conditions become more suitable for infective vector-borne diseases carried by organisms such agents such as ticks and mosquitoes. A longer and as mosquitoes, ticks and snails. These diseases more intense pollen season may aggravate the spread because the distribution of vector species symptoms of people who suffer from allergic dis- expands with higher temperatures, their popula- eases. Climate change may also have indirect tions grow, and they are active for longer periods impacts on health if for example medical transport of the year. Internationally, there is concern that services are blocked by damage to transport or diseases such as malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue other critical infrastructure caused by extreme and various types of encephalitis transmitted by weather events. However, climate change is not mosquitoes or ticks may spread to new areas. As expected to cause any large changes in mortality regards malaria and dengue, the higher risk is in Norway. largely associated with travel abroad. It is less Climate change may result in a negative trend likely that these two diseases will become estab- in drinking water quality. In general terms, the lished in Norway. impacts can be split into two categories, impacts An important disease vector in Norway is the on the raw water and water treatment plants, and sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus), which can carry a impacts on the distribution infrastructure. About variety of diseases, including borreliosis (or Lyme 90 % of the Norwegian population is supplied with disease), anaplasmosis, tick-borne encephalitis drinking water from surface water sources. Cli- (TBE), babesiosis and tularaemia. At present, mate change will probably result in higher aver- sheep ticks are common near the coast from part- age water temperature, more intense precipitation way up the Oslofjord to Brønnøysund in Nord- and more frequent flooding in such water sources. land, but there are also scattered records from These changes will in turn increase the likelihood further inland. In recent years, there has been an of larger numbers of microorganisms and larger increase in tick numbers, probably associated amounts of organic material, nutrients and pollut- with higher temperatures, a longer growing sea- ants in water sources. Norway’s 48 largest water son, an increase in moose, roe deer and red deer works (which supply more than 20 000 people populations, and overgrowing of open landscapes, each, and 2.6 million people in total) can maintain which is favourable for ticks. drinking water quality even if the raw water qual- ity deteriorates, but this is probably not the case 6 Source: Helsekonsekvenser av klimaendringer i Norge, for most of the smaller water works. Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU 2010: 10 Norwegian Institute of Public Health and Norwegian Directorate of Health During periods of intense precipitation, a rise (Health effects of climate change in Norway. Background in the groundwater level and water levels in drain- material for Official Norwegian Report on climate change age channels may result in polluted water seeping adaptation. In Norwegian only) 26 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 3.4 Climate change will influence the risk of food- and water-borne diseases There are factors along the entire production – Changes in the conditions for algal and plank- chain from fjord or farm to fork that will be influ- ton growth in the sea and in freshwater may enced by climate change. increase the risk of diseases associated with – Certain types of food- and water-borne infe- fish and seafood. ctions that are not currently common in Nor- – Drinking water quality may deteriorate if hig- way may become more widespread as far- her precipitation results in overloading of mers have to operate in warmer and wetter sewerage systems. conditions. – It will become more difficult to maintain food – Heat waves or extreme precipitation may be hygiene standards in restaurants, instituti- stressful for livestock and increase the risk of ons, workplaces and private households diseases. Heat stress may also cause injury under warmer and wetter conditions and higher mortality, for example during – Most infectious intestinal disease occurs transport for slaughter. during the summer months, and a longer – Climate change may create new ecological summer will result in a higher risk of such niches, with changes in the bird and mammal infections. fauna and corresponding changes in the – A higher prevalence of infections in livestock microbial ecology, which may entail a higher may result in higher consumption of antibio- risk of disease among livestock as well. This tics, increasing the risk that resistance will in turn may result in a higher risk of patho- develop. More widespread resistance to anti- gens in food. biotics will make it more difficult to treat infe- ctions both in livestock and in humans.

Source: Helsekonsekvenser av klimaendringer i Norge, Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU Klimatilpasning, 2010, Norwegian Insti- tute of Public Health and Directorate of Health. (Health effects of climate change in Norway. Background material for Official Norwegian Report on climate change adaptation. In Norwegian only.)

The duration of the growing season and snow Air quality may also be affected by climate cover are probably the key climatic factors in change. A longer pollen season and the introduc- determining tick distribution. According to projec- tion of new aeroallergens as species spread north- tions of the length of the growing season in the wards with the rising temperatures will result in a period up to 2100, all lowland areas of Norway higher risk of symptoms in the allergic population except in the far north will probably provide suita- and a higher prevalence of pollen allergies in Nor- ble conditions for ticks. It is therefore assumed way. It is considered likely that the quantity and/ that the prevalence of tick-borne diseases may or potency of important pollen types will increase, increase with the expansion of suitable tick habi- and that the distribution of existing and perhaps tat. new types of pollen-producing plants will expand. Higher temperatures and a greater risk of heat Air pollution may worsen; for example, there may waves may entail greater health risks in future, be higher levels of ground-level ozone and although this will probably not have major impli- changes in the composition of airborne particu- cations for public health in Norway in the near late matter. future. The increase in mortality associated with Climate change may entail a greater risk of heat waves indicates that people with chronic dis- flooding and landslides or avalanches later in the eases and the elderly are most vulnerable. A rise present century. This may result in such events in in the risk of prolonged heat waves in Norway is locations where they have not previously to be expected, but there have been no studies of occurred, which will entail a greater risk to the possible effects on public health. On the other human life and health. However, precisely how hand, a reduction in cold-related mortality is and to what extent climate change will influence expected, since the risk of prolonged extreme this risk is uncertain. cold will be reduced as a result of global warming. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 27 Climate change adaptation in Norway

1961-1990 2071-2100

NUMBER OF DAYS NUMBER OF DAYS

0-30 0-30 31-60 31-60 61-90 61-90 91-120 91-120 121-150 121-150 151-175 151-175 176-180 176-180 181-210 181-210 211-225 211-225

Figure 3.5 Tick distribution is related to the length of the growing season The left-hand map shows the length of the growing season in Norway in the period 1961–90. The distribution of sheep ticks today coincides with the area where the growing season lasts for 176–180 days or more (coloured orange to red on the map). The right- hand map shows projections for the length of the growing season in the period 2071–2100, according to the model Hadley A2 2071– 2100. This indicates that the growing season will last for 176–180 days or more in almost all lowland areas of Norway except in the far north. Source: Norwegian Meteorological Institute 2013

3.4 Infrastructure vital societal functions, and a functioning ICT infrastructure is necessary for a stable power sup- Both society and individuals are dependent on ply. If the power supply is disrupted, it is crucial access to electricity, transport and communica- that the transport system functions so that repairs tions, water, waste management services and shel- can be carried out. However, at present the main- ter. Much of the infrastructure that provides these tenance backlog for the building stock and other services is designated as critical infrastructure, infrastructure is a considerable challenge. Cli- and society makes substantial resources available mate change will increase the need for mainte- for ensuring that it is resilient to various types of nance and thus the problems posed by the mainte- stress. Almost all infrastructure is sensitive to cli- nance backlog. The interdependence of these fac- mate variability and therefore vulnerable to cli- tors will intensify the overall vulnerability of infra- mate change. The vulnerability of infrastructure, structure to climate change. including buildings, has major implications for the However, in the report Adapting to a changing ways in which society is affected by climate climate (NOU 2010: 10), the committee pointed change. out that the degree of vulnerability to climate Infrastructure comprises roads, airports, rail- change varies with the type of infrastructure, ways, ports, the electricity grid, ICT infrastruc- among other things with the various operational ture, water supply and sewerage systems, waste lifetimes. Roads and railways that are being con- management services and buildings. All these structed today have a long lifetime and must be infrastructure elements are interdependent. The designed to cope with different types of stress power supply is essential for the maintenance of over the very long term, whereas cables in the 28 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

ICT infrastructure have a short lifetime and this lighting facilities may suffer from erosion. Wet infrastructure has a high adaptive capacity. Priori- runways reduce braking action and higher precip- ties, divisions of responsibility and the resources itation levels will make drainage for stormwater available for adaptation also influence the degree runoff more important but also more difficult. At of vulnerability, and these factors make for exam- some airports more frequent temperature fluctua- ple the water and sewerage sector especially vul- tions around freezing point and more precipitation nerable. in the form of snow will pose problems for winter Society is dependent on a well-functioning maintenance and snow clearance. Changes in transport system. It is essential to avoid disrup- wind strength and direction, turbulence and per- tion to road, rail, sea and air traffic for individuals, haps more frequent extreme low pressure events emergency services, businesses and other key may affect air traffic. services and actors. Norway’s power supply is primarily based on The problems caused by the current mainte- hydropower, and the country has about 1 700 nance backlog in the land transport sector, both hydropower dams. These run-of-river or storage roads and railways, will be intensified by climate hydropower systems deliver electricity through change. In recent years flooding, landslides and the nationwide electricity grid. Higher precipita- avalanches have in some cases had serious conse- tion resulting from climate change will probably quences for the transport network and shown that make it possible to increase electricity production, roads and railways are already vulnerable and will while higher temperatures may reduce the be even more vulnerable to future climate change. demand for electricity. The electricity supply sys- Higher precipitation levels will put more pressure tem is designed to withstand extreme weather on drainage systems. The higher risk of flooding, events. This is a critical infrastructure, since soci- landslides and avalanches is a threat to traffic ety depends on a secure and stable power supply safety, and may increase the frequency of disrup- in order to function. Major disruption of the power tion and cause considerably more damage to both supply would have significant economic conse- roads and railways. Sea level rise and storm quences and pose a threat to life and health. surges may cause wave erosion and inundation, Today the power supply system is vulnerable which may disrupt traffic and lead to erosion dam- to climate conditions, and about half of all power age. This could also increase the risk of water cuts and disruption of the electricity grid are flowing into undersea tunnels, and increase weather-related. While lightning is the most com- stresses and erosion of road embankments and mon cause of power cuts, these can also be caused bridge foundations. by other factors such as overgrown vegetation, Maritime traffic along the coast is important fallen trees, snow and ice. However, the NOU for Norway, and is dependent on infrastructure in committee considers that the electricity sector the form of fairways, lighthouses, buoys, break- infrastructure is well adapted to today’s climate. waters, and ports and their associated infrastruc- Some of the factors that constitute risks to the ture. The wind, wave and current conditions along electricity supply today may become more pro- the Norwegian coast already pose problems for nounced in future. Higher humidity, higher pre- maritime transport, and climate change may cipitation, a longer growing season and more aggravate these conditions and increase the loads rapid shifts between frost and thaws and wet and and wear on lighthouses, buoys, breakwaters and dry periods may increase the need for mainte- quays. Sea level rise, storm surges, ocean acidifi- nance. A higher frequency of extreme weather cation and harsher weather conditions will make events involving lightning strikes, icing on power infrastructure operation and maintenance a more lines in areas that previously had stable cold con- challenging task. Navigation infrastructure, ditions, extreme heat, flooding, landslides and breakwaters, port facilities and so on must be avalanches, rising sea levels and less stable sea- designed to withstand more rapid corrosion as a sonally frozen ground may result in more frequent result of ocean acidification. damage. The higher risk of landslides and ava- Norwegian airports will be affected by climate lanches could affect the safety of dams, since a change in different ways and to different degrees. slide into a reservoir can cause damage to dams Many airports in coastal areas are situated on flat and other infrastructure. land close to the shore or open water, which Climate change will also result in a need for makes them vulnerable to the effects of higher new power lines, for example to take account of water levels and high waves. The infrastructure of increased hydropower production. these airports is vulnerable, and safety zones and 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 29 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Buildings account for a large proportion of Higher precipitation will result in a warmer, society’s investment in infrastructure. In 2008 more humid climate and an increase in the decay there were 3.8 million buildings in Norway, 40 % of of wooden materials. Today 615 000 buildings in which were residential. About 80 % of today’s Norway are in the high decay hazard category. buildings will still be standing in 2050. Buildings According to SINTEF Building and Infrastruc- are vulnerable to a number of different types of ture, this figure will increase substantially. By natural hazards, including those caused by 2100, a total of 2.4 million of today’s buildings will extreme weather events. In 2011 insurance com- be in the high decay hazard category, and this will panies registered 37 113 cases of damage result- include to virtually all the buildings in Oslo, which ing from water entering buildings, and according are currently in the moderate decay hazard cate- to Finance Norway, the compensation payments gory (just over 125 000 buildings). In Hordaland amounted to a total of NOK 2.2 billion. Many of about 190 000 buildings, or well over half the total the risks to buildings posed by climate factors may stock, are currently in areas where the decay haz- be intensified by climate change. The most impor- ard is high, and this will increase to about 220 000 tant variables will be higher precipitation, expo- of the existing buildings. In addition, a large pro- sure to humidity, and changes in wind patterns. portion of the building stock in Buskerud, Sea level rise and higher precipitation will mean Oppland and Hedmark will be affected by a rise in that humidity becomes more of a problem, and the annual precipitation of more than 25 %.7 risk of exposure to decay is expected to increase In Norway almost 90 % of the population are in large parts of the country. A higher frequency connected to the water supply and sewerage sys- of extreme weather events such as storm surges, tems, which are municipally owned. Well-function- landslides and avalanches, and flooding will pose ing water supply and sewerage systems are essen- risks to buildings in exposed locations, and the large maintenance backlog, especially in the 7 Source: Lisø, K.R. and Kvande, T.: Klimatilpasning av byg- municipal building stock, will increase the risks. ninger (Climate proofing buildings, in Norwegian), SIN- TEF Building and Infrastructure, Oslo 2007.

1961-90 2021-50

Low decay hazard Low decay hazard Moderate decay hazard Moderate decay hazard

High decay hazard High decay hazard

Figure 3.6 Buildings – estimated changes in decay hazard Source: Lisø, K.R. and Kvande, T.: Klimatilpasning av bygninger (Climate-proofing Buildings, in Norwegian) SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, Oslo 2007. 30 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway tial to health and for maintaining the natural envi- ability. Others, such as many of the service indus- ronment and societal functions in general. Even tries, will primarily be affected if climate change today, many municipalities suffer from flood and leads to disruption of services on which they water damage and sewage backup resulting from depend. At the same time the business sector is a intense precipitation events. This may be due to key actor in efforts to make society more resilient under-dimensioning of the sewerage system and to climate change, since it is businesses that are increased densification of urban areas, which in responsible for developing and constructing build- turn results in overloading of the system. Studies ings and other infrastructure, and thus supply indicate that there is a maintenance backlog in goods and services that will be substantially these sectors, and the problem of poorer quality affected by climate change. raw water in drinking water sources is growing, All businesses will be indirectly affected by cli- due to higher temperatures and precipitation and mate change through the vulnerability of services greater volumes of runoff. Climate change will on which they depend. This applies among other increase the risk of disruption of water supply and things to infrastructure, such as communications sewerage services. More stormwater runoff is (roads, railways, air and maritime transport), also likely to lead to overloading of sewerage water supply and sewerage, power supplies, the pipes and waste water treatment plants. If large electricity grid, ICT infrastructure, and buildings volumes of stormwater enter the sewerage net- and equipment, all of which are largely outside work, unnecessarily large volumes of water have the control of the individual business. Resilient to be processed through the sewerage treatment infrastructure, communications and energy sup- system, resulting in lower treatment efficiency. plies are essential for the maintenance of the wel- Intense precipitation events and flooding may fare society, for future value creation and for the increase the pollution risk due to polluted water competitiveness of the business sector. Thus the from submerged pipes and cisterns seeping into impacts of climate change on society’s infrastruc- the distribution network for drinking water. ture in the broadest sense will also have conse- Climate change may also put pressure on ICT quences for the business sector. infrastructure, in the form of flooding, landslides, The pace of restructuring in the business sec- avalanches and icing of power lines. However, this tor influences the degree to which the various sector is less vulnerable than many other infra- businesses are affected by climate change and structure areas since new technology is continu- how rapidly they can adapt to new climatic condi- ally being developed and installations upgraded. tions. This applies particularly to service indus- The sector is fairly well adapted today, but in the tries such as the tourist industry. However, in the long run measures to adapt to climate change and next few decades the industrial structure will have ensure delivery will have to be considered. Nor- changed dramatically; for example, two of three way’s widespread use of new and existing ICT new Norwegian businesses have a lifetime of less technology gives the country a high degree of than five years, and in 50 years’ time most of them resilience. ICT systems play an important role in will probably no longer exist and have been ensuring efficient electricity distribution, and ICT replaced by new ones and new markets. In the tools also play an important role in early warning course of this century the technology and prod- and emergency response systems. ucts used by businesses today will have been replaced several times. This flexibility and adap- tive capacity is likely to make businesses more 3.5 The Norwegian business sector resilient to climate change. The need and capacity to restructure in The Norwegian business sector consists of more response to climate change vary from sector to than 350 000 enterprises in many different sectors sector. The primary and related industries such as located in all parts of the country. The effects of fish processing will be directly affected by climate climate change on the various sectors will depend change and will have to undergo major adapta- on the nature and location of the sector and its tions in order to maintain their earning power and connection to the necessary infrastructure. The profitability under new climatic conditions. For diversity of the business sector makes it difficult example, certain businesses might need to adapt to gain an overview of the all the problems related by moving northwards from the coast of Western to climate change faced by the sector as a whole. Norway to follow shifts in the distribution of In some sectors, such as forestry, climate change resources such as fish stocks. This also applies to will alter the framework for production and profit- service industries that are directly related to the 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 31 Climate change adaptation in Norway primary industries and outdoor industries. For change adaptation by imposing requirements on example, a shorter winter season will in some policy-holders, including businesses, to take pre- areas have a significant impact on the operation of ventive measures to reduce damage resulting ski resorts and the hotel industry in winter sports from climate change. The role of the insurance areas. Thus climate change could have serious sector is described in more detail in Chapter 6.5. impacts on small local communities reliant on a single industry. Such situations will require high adaptive capacity and measures to facilitate knowl- 3.6 Cultural heritage edge-based business development. However, climate change may also provide Tangible cultural heritage is a non-renewable opportunities for new business activities and value resource that allows us to understand and appreci- creation; for example, it could increase profitability in the electricity sector. An analysis conducted in connection with the report Adapting to a changing Box 3.5 Cultural monuments, sites climate (NOU 2010: 10) estimated that production and environments will increase by 7–22 % in the second half of this century. On the basis of certain assumptions about The Cultural Heritage Act defines cultural future prices, this means that revenues from monuments, sites and environments as «all hydropower production could increase by NOK 5– traces of human activity in our physical envi- 16 billion annually. Another example is the melting ronment, including places associated with his- of the Arctic sea ice, which could open up new torical events, beliefs and traditions.» The indi- opportunities for maritime transport. Ice-free vidual cultural monument or site is usually routes across the Arctic Ocean and through the part of a larger context that is also meaningful: Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage a cultural environment. In addition, a cultural provide new opportunities for maritime transport environment may consist of elements that are in polar waters. For example, for ships sailing from not in themselves important but that taken Asia to Europe, the Northeast Passage would be together form a visual or functional whole of about 40 % shorter than the route through the Suez great cultural and historical value. Canal, and bunker oil consumption about 20 % More than 250 000 archaeological monu- lower. However, the volume of international com- ments and sites have been registered in Nor- mercial maritime traffic in the future is uncertain. way, but there are far more that are unknown. Proximity to the Arctic will probably give Norwe- Some, like burial mounds, rock carvings and gian companies a competitive edge and increase animal trapping systems, are easily visible. the use of ports in North Norway. However, a Others are hidden below the ground, like greater volume of maritime traffic in the Arctic will stone-age sites and medieval streets and pose a risk to the vulnerable environment. alleys, or under water, like sacrificial offerings Extreme weather conditions, the period of dark- and submerged sites. Monuments and sites ness in winter, incomplete mapping, inadequate dating back to before 1537 are automatically communication systems and ice-covered waters protected under the Cultural Heritage Act. are constant challenges. The remoteness of these The same applies to Sami monuments and areas also makes search and rescue operations, sites that are more than 100 years old, and pre- and preparedness and response to acute pollution, 1946 structures and sites in Svalbard. difficult and costly. As for transport in other waters, In Norway there are around 6 000 buildings ensuring safe maritime transport in polar waters that are protected under the Cultural Heritage requires rules for ship standards and crew qualifi- Act and about another 5 500 in museums. cations, and the necessary maritime infrastructure. Around 1 000 churches are protected or regis- The insurance sector is in a unique position tered and managed in the same way as protected because insurance products are directly affected buildings. In some cases the surroundings are by climate change. By assuming the risk of also protected, for example historic gardens or unforeseen damage, including that related to natu- valuable cultural landscapes. In addition a large ral hazards, on behalf of other actors, insurance number of buildings are regulated for protection companies play a potentially important role in under the Planning and Building Act. Around reducing vulnerability and promoting progress 375 000 buildings were built before 1900. Most towards a climate-resilient society. The sector also of them have no statutory protection, but many has the potential to create incentives for climate of them are historically important. 32 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ate the past and people’s lives and activities in pre- vious times. It also serves as a source of enjoy- Box 3.6 Nordic cooperation ment and enhances the quality of life and of the environment. The loss of any part of the cultural The project «Effects of climate change on cul- heritage can be a loss for individuals, local com- tural heritage sites and cultural environments» munities and society as a whole. was established as a collaboration between the As part of the efforts to prepare the cultural cultural heritage administrations of seven Nor- heritage authorities to deal with the consequences dic countries: Iceland, Greenland, the Faeroe of climate change for cultural heritage manage- Islands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Nor- ment, the Directorate for Cultural Heritage has way. It was primarily financed by the Nordic headed a Nordic cooperation project on the Council of Ministers, and the aim was to assist effects of climate change on cultural heritage. The cultural heritage administrations to prepare for resulting report, «Climate change and cultural the expected consequences of climate change heritage in the Nordic countries» (TemaNord and to strengthen Nordic collaboration and 2010:599), concluded that the acute effects of network building between the Nordic cultural extreme weather events such as storms, flooding, heritage administrations. The published landslides and intense precipitation, and the more report, «Climate change and cultural heritage long-term effects of sea level rise, warmer temper- in the Nordic countries» (TemaNord 2010:599) atures, higher humidity and higher precipitation, contains the main results and conclusions. can be expected to result in more damage to cul-

Box 3.7 Karmøy Karmøy is located in the coastal area where the During its restoration, the foundations of the sea level will rise most. Historical buildings con- old seahouse that now houses the Åkrehamn nected with trade, fisheries and shipping are Coast Museum were raised by 60 cm to create a usually situated right on the sea front. During buffer against a rise in sea level. Raising the the storm Inga in 2005, storm surges, waves and foundations of buildings is one of several meas- wind damaged a number of historic buildings in ures that need to be considered when important Karmøy municipality. buildings have to be protected from rising sea levels.

Figure 3.7 Nordneshuset in Skudeneshavn. A tourist attraction in Karmøy. Photo: Robert Harding Images/Masterfile/NTBscanpix 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 33 Climate change adaptation in Norway tural heritage sites, increased loss of such sites, threaten built-up areas close to the coast and changes in conservation conditions and new finds other elements of the cultural heritage in exposed of archaeological artefacts and sites. areas. Extreme rainfall events are likely to lead to A higher frequency of extreme weather events flooding and will threaten urban landscapes with such as flooding, landslides and avalanches, inadequate storm drain systems. storms and intense precipitation will increase the More gradual processes of climate change will risk of damage to buildings and archaeological put more pressure on the cultural heritage. A material. Global mean sea level is now rising by more humid climate will increase the risk of bio- about 3 mm per year, and in the coming century logical, physical and chemical decomposition of will probably rise by considerably more than this. cultural monuments, and wooden buildings and Rising sea levels and larger storm surges will elements will be at higher risk of decay and dam-

Box 3.8 Climate change and Svalbard’s cultural heritage The supports for the aerial cableway that are so Fredheim on the Sassenfjorden in Svalbard is a characteristic of Longyearbyen are beginning to high-priority cultural environment that is threat- rot where the poles are in contact with the damp ened by erosion. In 2001 the oldest cabin, dating soil. The active layer of the permafrost is becom- back to 1911, was moved 6 m away from the sea ing deeper, causing settling and damage to shore. The main cabin, dating back to 1924, buildings; for example cracks are appearing in which was 17.7 m from the shore in 1987, is now the brick walls of Pyramiden, the former Soviet only 8 m away. Together with a project group and now Russian settlement. The ice in the from the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), fjords and along the coast, which weakens wave the authorities are considering moving the action, is melting, and erosion is a growing prob- whole complex further inland. lem throughout the Arctic. The hunting station

Figure 3.8 Supports for an aerial cableway from a coal mine in Svalbard, part of its protected cultural heritage. Photo: Ministry of the Environment 34 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 3.9 Klimapark2469 Mímisbrunnr Klimapark2469 is the result of a cross-disciplinary collaboration in the fields of archaeology, glaciology, meteorology and bot- any, and is situated in the alpine zone close to the Juvfonna glacier at the foot of Galdhøpiggen, Norway’s highest mountain, in Lom municipal- ity. The intention is to provide a unique arena for research, value creation and information about climate change, cultural heritage and the moun- tain landscape from a long-term perspective. Cli- mate change research is a rapidly developing field, and Klimapark2469 aims to teach children and young people, and the public in general, more about the historical climate. Kli- mapark2469 provides an opportunity to physi- cally experience current climate processes and interactions between nature and humans. The main attraction is the Mímisbrunnr ice tunnel dug into the glacier, which was opened to the public this year. It replaces the first tunnel, which had to be closed after two years of rapid Figure 3.9 Reindeer scare-stick emerging ice melt. from the Juvfonna glacier, Jotunheimen. Photo: Bård Løken/Samfoto/NTBscanpix

age from pests. About four of five protected build- tected buildings in Norway are situated in existing ings in Norway are constructed of wood, and in or previous farmland that is at high risk of becom- virtually all of the remaining buildings wood is ing overgrown. Once woodland has encroached used in roof structures or beams. on heritage sites, there is a risk of damage from Higher temperatures lead to thawing of the per- tree roots or from windthrow, which puts build- mafrost, which is already a threat to the conserva- ings at risk of physical decomposition and decay. tion of archaeological remains in Svalbard. Coastal Another effect of overgrowing can be to alter the erosion in Svalbard is also increasing due to the historical landscape context of cultural monu- declining extent of the sea ice. Because so much of ments, obscuring their original function in the the cultural heritage in the archipelago is located landscape. This reduces people’s enjoyment and on the coast, coastal erosion is a serious threat. consequently the utility value of the site, which in Svalbard’s cultural heritage used to be referred to turn reduces opportunities for value creation and as being frozen in time, or preserved through natu- learning opportunities for the public. ral freeze-drying processes in the cold climate. There is hard evidence of the climate change Archaeological excavations of whalers’ graves now taking place in the form of the hundreds of undertaken in the 1980s revealed 17th- and 18th- archaeological artefacts that are being exposed by century corpses that still had skin and hair and the melting snowpack in the mountains of Nor- almost intact woollen clothing. However, due to the way. They date from different historical periods, warmer and more humid climate, many of the and the oldest, which have been discovered in the archaeological remains in the Arctic have now Jotunheimen mountains, date back more than reached a critical point as regards conservation. 3 000 years. In earlier historical periods people A milder climate will prolong the growing sea- were drawn to the mountain snowpack and gla- son, speeding up vegetation growth so that areas ciers by the opportunities for reindeer hunting, around heritage buildings and sites and cultural and most of the finds are linked with this activity. landscapes will become more rapidly overgrown. They are mainly made of organic materials that A large number of archaeological sites and pro- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 35 Climate change adaptation in Norway have been well preserved by the cold ice, but when exposed to air begin decomposing rapidly.

3.7 The Sami culture and way of life

Today there are traditional Sami settlements in Norway in the region extending from Engerdal in northern Hedmark and all the way to the border with Russia. The Sami are recognised as an indig- enous population with special rights in this coun- try, and Norway has undertaken to ensure that they have the opportunity to practise their tradi- tional culture and economic activities. Sami culture and economic activities are so closely linked with natural resources that climate change is likely to have substantial effects on both. However, other economic and social factors are also expected to alter the framework for tradi- tional Sami culture, and climate change is thus one of several factors that will affect this people’s culture and way of life. The Sami culture and way of life rely heavily on the natural resource base in their traditional settlement areas and other areas they utilise. Sami activities such as sea fishing, reindeer husbandry, agriculture, salmon fishing, commercial activities based on uncultivated land, and combinations of these, are important bearers of Sami culture, and Figure 3.10 From a Sami settlement in Kaper- these activities are likely to be affected by climate dalen Museum, Troms, from the beginning of the change. An example is Sami reindeer husbandry, 1900s. Window in a gamme (turf house) from the which is practised in an area extending from Hed- early 1900s, used by forest Sami until the 1960s. mark in the south to Finnmark in the north. Rein- Photo: Øystein Søbye/Samfoto/NTBscanpix deer husbandry is nomadic, and the reindeer are moved between different seasonal grazing Climate change may also have impacts on grounds. Because this requires extensive areas marine industries, since higher sea temperatures and because the animals graze outside all year may result in a northward shift in the distribution round, reindeer husbandry is particularly vulnera- of wild stocks and in where aquaculture organ- ble to climate change. Climate change will be isms are farmed. We do not know exactly how cli- additional to a variety of other disturbances and mate change will affect the livelihoods and way of will affect the use and quality of the grazing life of the sea Sami. Changes in the species com- grounds. Climate change adaptation measures for position of marine ecosystems may cause prob- reindeer husbandry are described in Chapter 8.2. lems, but may also create new opportunities for Other Sami industries on land are also under fjord and coastal fisheries in Sami areas. Whether pressure and the problems are expected to or not such changes have economic and social increase as a result of climate change. For exam- benefits will depend on the fish species involved, ple, new species of geometrid moths may damage seasonal changes in their distribution and the birch forest in many parts of North Norway, and extent to which the fishers are able to take advan- also have impacts on the field-layer vegetation. tage of new fisheries opportunities and at the Large areas of birch forest in Finnmark, the same time address new problems resulting from county with the largest Sami population in Nor- climate change and its impacts in Arctic areas. Cli- way, are vulnerable to outbreaks of geometrid lar- mate change adaptation measures for fisheries vae, and this may have impacts on the fauna and and aquaculture are described in Chapter 8.2. thus for hunting and other uses of these areas. The close links between livelihoods and Sami culture make this people vulnerable to climate 36 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway change. However, their history of harvesting natu- important to ensure that the goal of maintaining ral resources despite climate and weather variabil- the foundation for traditional Sami industries can ity has given them a sound foundation of experi- be met and to recognise the value of traditional ence and knowledge. The Sami have always knowledge in addressing climate change. Compe- shown considerable flexibility in adapting and tence- and capacity-building within the Sami com- diversifying their traditional economic activities. munity will also be essential to meet these chal- Extensive, diversified harvesting of both terres- lenges. Sound methods of gathering and using tra- trial and marine natural resources has allowed ditional knowledge and capacity should be devel- them to adapt to fluctuations in the resource base, oped to equip the Sami to take advantage of any and is the reason why so many Sami combine dif- new opportunities that may arise in traditional ferent income-generating activities such as agri- occupations, while adapting to the new needs that culture, fisheries, reindeer husbandry and har- may result from climate change. vesting other resources from uncultivated areas. The overriding question from the perspective Combinations that include paid employment and of the Sami and other indigenous peoples in the tourism are becoming increasingly common. This Arctic is how to equip these communities to flexibility in their use of traditional resources by address and adapt to the inevitable climate change combining different forms of harvesting and har- while at the same time safeguarding the role and vesting from different areas has made the Sami value of their traditional knowledge. Care must highly adaptable. therefore be taken to ensure that climate change It is important in the context of climate change adaptation measures do not weaken the founda- adaptation to consider how various measures will tion for traditional Sami industries and thereby affect indigenous communities. For example, it is undermine Sami culture. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 37 Climate change adaptation in Norway

4 Common framework for adaptation to climate change

The authorities are responsible for providing a The Government: framework that enables individuals, the business • As a precautionary approach, wishes assess- sector and the voluntary sector to carry out their ments of the impacts of climate change to be tasks and meet their responsibilities under vary- based on figures from the high end of the range ing weather and climatic conditions. In certain of national climate projections. However, when areas, this is formalised through legislation or decisions are made in individual cases, climate other forms of regulation. For example, there are change considerations and underlying assump- standards regulating building in flood zones, and tions about the degree of climate change must regional and local authorities are responsible for be weighed against other considerations of the ensuring compliance with these. Areas that are public interest, the lifetime of the development particularly vulnerable to certain types of natural in question and its importance to society. hazards, like flooding, landslides and avalanches, • Plans for regular updates of knowledge about have therefore been mapped and safety measures the impacts of climate change and vulnerabil- have been introduced. ity, and of assessments of adaptation needs in The report Adapting to a changing climate Norway. Updates will be considered when sub- (NOU 2010: 10) concludes that Norway is in a stantial new knowledge is available, particu- good position to adapt to climate change, but that larly related to the assessment reports of the it will be necessary to implement appropriate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change adaptation measures for human and natural sys- (IPCC). tems. The Government agrees with this conclu- sion, and considers it vital for society to adapt to climate change. This white paper is intended to 4.1 Everyone shares the responsibility provide a basis for effective adaptation of Norwe- for climate change adaptation gian society to climate change. Climate change will first and foremost alter the Weather conditions and the climate affect practi- framework for planning and decision-making cally every sector of society and are an important rather than the tasks to be carried out. It will element of most people’s daily lives. Both individu- affect the various parts of the country and the var- als and society invest substantial resources in ious sectors in different ways, to different degrees adapting their activities to weather conditions and and at different times. Moreover, climate change the climate. The business sector constantly has to will be only one of a number of factors that influ- adapt to the current climatic conditions, and this is ence the framework for planning and decision- particularly true of industries such as agriculture, making. This means that adaptation work has to forestry and fisheries that are directly dependent be closely linked to the area and task in question. on the environment. Many of Norway’s voluntary A fundamental principle of climate change adapta- organisations are also engaged in activities related tion in Norway is therefore that the actor respon- to weather or climatic conditions. The Norwegian sible for the work is the actor responsible for the Red Cross and Norwegian People’s Aid have task or function affected by climate change. In developed special expertise and preparedness for consequence, everyone has a responsibility for cli- natural hazards such as avalanches. Sports associ- mate change adaptation: individuals, households, ations devote considerable time and resources to private businesses and the public sector. Interest providing facilities for seasonal activities. Winter groups and the voluntary sector also have an activities such as skiing and skating are also being important role to play in climate change adapta- adapted to some extent to weather and climate tion. variability, for example through the artificial pro- In order to adapt, it is essential to understand duction of snow and ice when necessary. how activities will be affected by climate change 38 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway and to integrate climate change considerations climate change will gradually become more into planning and decision-making processes. The marked and will influence the nature and level of authorities have management tools to facilitate the the risks in many areas of Norwegian society. Risk incorporation of a range of different considera- assessments and planning today are largely based tions into planning and decision-making. Wher- on historical data on the climate and natural haz- ever relevant, climate change considerations ards such as flooding, landslides and avalanches. should be integrated into management tools used Many of the decisions we make today will have as a basis for general planning processes. implications far into the future. For example, Climate change adaptation must be made an buildings have an average lifetime of 78 years, and integral part of the work of actors in various fields, will therefore have to withstand the climatic condi- and at the same time it is important to ensure that tions that are expected by the end of the present everyone can use the same common knowledge century. The same applies to areas that are to be base. The authorities also need to provide consist- zoned as residential areas today. It is therefore ent guidelines on how different sectors, and par- important to ensure that climate projections are ticularly the municipalities, should address cli- part of the basis for assessments made in connec- mate change. tion with investments and planning processes with a long time horizon. In this context «a long time horizon» is related to the time frame of the availa- 4.2 Key considerations in climate ble climate projections. In general, climate projec- change adaptation tions for Norway are made for 2050 and 2100. To ensure that adaption measures are based on pro- In Adapting to a changing climate, the committee jections, it is sensible to take climate change into points out that if climate change considerations account in investments and planning processes are not incorporated into long-term planning and with a time frame extending up to or beyond 2050, decision-making, this may increase the risk of in other words with a lifetime of 30 years or more. damage resulting from climate change and entail For investments and planning processes with a substantial costs. The committee therefore shorter time frame, it will be sufficient to use the emphasised the importance of starting adaptation climate today as a basis. work now. Adaptation must be based on the Adapting to a changing climate takes into knowledge available at any given time. There is account that it may not be possible to limit the rise considerable uncertainty about climate change in global mean temperature to two degrees Cel- and the impacts it will have on nature and society, sius, which is the international target. There is a and our knowledge of these issues will change risk that global greenhouse gas emissions may during the present century. The level of uncer- continue to rise and that the world will not achieve tainty in climate projections can be reduced the two-degree target, even though Norway and through research, but there will always be an ele- practically every other country in the world have ment of uncertainty in connection with the future adopted it. As a precautionary approach, the Gov- climate. The climate system is complex, and emis- ernment wishes assessments of the impacts of cli- sion trends are uncertain. Moreover, it is not only mate change to be based on figures from the high the climate that will change in the period up to end of the range of national climate projections. 2100; society will also change in ways that influ- However, when decisions are made in individual ence the impacts of climate change in different cases, climate change considerations and underly- sectors. Adapting to a changing climate also points ing assumptions about the degree of climate out that although the level of uncertainty associ- change must be weighed against other considera- ated with planning processes is increasing as a tions of the public interest, the lifetime of the result of climate change, the uncertainty associ- development in question and its importance to ated with future climate change is not does not society. justify delaying adaptation. Even if figures from the high end of the range The time horizon is an important factor in cli- of national climate projections are used to assess mate change adaptation. Incorporating climate the impacts of climate change on an investment or change considerations into planning processes is a planning process, climate change considerations primarily necessary in long-term planning . The will in the individual case need to be weighed climate has changed substantially in Norway over against other important considerations such as the past 100 years – for example, precipitation has the implications for life and health or material risen by about 20 %. In the course of this century, assets, and what level of risk is considered to be 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 39 Climate change adaptation in Norway

all building in areas that are at risk of flooding, landslides or avalanches. It has been suggested Box 4.1 Vulnerability to climate that the safety requirements relating to these risk change factors for new developments are too strict. The A number of factors influence vulnerability to white paper concludes that a balance must be climate change. Vulnerability is often under- found between safety requirements and the con- stood as a function of the degree of exposure tinued need for further development in parts of of an area to the impacts of climate change the country where the topography or ground con- and of adaptive capacity, in other words the ditions are difficult. degree to which it is possible to deal with the Climate change will alter Norway’s natural challenges posed by climate change. In the environment and entail a growing risk of losing report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU characteristic species and habitats. At the same 2010: 10), adaptive capacity is linked to institu- time, the natural environment can function as a tional factors and the resources available, and buffer against many negative impacts of climate to the political will to give priority to climate change. For example, vegetation plays an impor- and climate change in planning and decision- tant role in preventing the erosion and damage making processes. Analyses of how and to that could otherwise be caused by higher precipi- what extent climate change will affect a sector tation and more intense precipitation events. Cli- must be used as a basis for assessing adapta- mate change adaptation must be designed to sup- tion needs. There are elements of uncertainty port the capacity of species and ecosystems to in all long-term planning. Climate change adds adapt to rising temperatures, and to avoid any a new element of uncertainty in addition to increase in the vulnerability of the environment. those associated with other changes and The general provisions on sustainable use in trends that affect society. Chapter II of the Nature Diversity Act must be used as a basis, including the requirements for decisions that affect the environment to be based on scientific knowledge of the impacts of environ- acceptable. Cost-benefit analyses are an important mental pressures and on assessments of the tool in this work. Thus, assessments of climate cumulative environmental effects on ecosystems. change should be incorporated into the basis for making planning and investment decisions. This has already been done for many areas within the 4.3 Coordination needs transport, energy and public safety sectors. The economic consequences of climate change and The Government first set out a framework and the potential damage to life and health will vary key objectives for climate change adaptation in from one sector to another. May 2008, and these were incorporated into the In some contexts, climate change will result in 2009 budget proposal. They state that the goals of a higher risk of damage, or in the worst case loss Norway’s adaptation work are to reduce the vul- of life, in Norway as well as in other countries. We nerability of Norwegian society to climate change are already at risk from natural hazards today, and and to strengthen Norway’s adaptive capacity. will in future have to weigh up these risks against These goals are to be achieved by: a number of other factors. This issue was dis- 1. reviewing Norway’s vulnerability to climate cussed more thoroughly in a white paper on living change and incorporating climate change con- with the risks of flooding, landslides and ava- siderations into planning processes; lanches (Meld. St. 15 (2011–2012)), which states 2. developing the knowledge base on climate that both individuals and society as a whole must change and climate change adaptation; be aware of natural hazards such as flooding, land- 3. coordinating adaptation initiatives, awareness slides and avalanches, and take the risks into raising and competence building. account in order to limit damage. The main focus should be on a proactive approach and preventive In the period 2008–12, Norway has made impor- measures to keep damage at an acceptable level. tant progress in its national adaptation work. Although the dangers must be taken into account Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: 10), when new buildings and other infrastructure are the first national assessment of the impacts of cli- being planned, the terrain and ground conditions mate change on Norway, has been published. A in Norway are such that it is not realistic to avoid range of capacity- and competence-building meas- 40 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ures have been implemented. For example, all headed by the Ministry of the Environment. This municipalities and counties are now offered ministry is responsible for Norway’s overall cli- courses in climate change adaptation, and Nor- mate policy, including climate change adaptation, way’s 13 largest cities and urban areas, which are and is also the central government planning involved in the cooperation programme «Cities of authority. Knowledge about climate change is the the Future», have established climate change common starting point for both mitigation and adaptation plans. Various sectoral authorities have adaptation to climate change. carried out surveys and made changes to require- In 2007, the Directorate for Civil Protection ments and guidelines in order to take future cli- and Emergency Planning was given time-limited mate change into account. responsibility for coordinating the work of central Climate change adaptation involves many dif- government authorities on climate change adapta- ferent central government authorities. The Direc- tion. The secretariat for this five-year project, torate for Civil Protection and Emergency Plan- which was under the directorate, has focused ning is responsible for assessing the risks associ- especially on facilitating the efforts of municipal ated with different types of natural hazards, and authorities and others to address the long-term draws up guidelines for making risk assessments challenges that climate change will bring. The in connection with land-use planning. The Norwe- secretariat’s efforts have included information gian Water Resources and Energy Directorate is work, courses and the development of a national the government agency responsible for mapping portal that can be accessed from the Govern- the risk of landslides and avalanches and flood- ment’s website. The portal provides relevant infor- prone areas, for dam safety and for calculations of mation on climate change adaptation for public flooding levels for use in designing infrastructure authorities, companies and other interested par- near river systems. The Directorate for Nature ties, examples of practical adaptation work and Management1 monitors and assesses the impacts links to key actors that can provide advice and of climate change on the natural environment, the guidance within specific fields. The secretariat has Norwegian Mapping Authority has important also been responsible for coordination of work on functions relating to sea level rise, and the Climate climate change adaptation in the «Cities of the and Pollution Agency evaluates current knowl- Future» cooperation, which includes Norway’s 13 edge about climate change, facilitates municipal largest cities. In addition, the secretariat has planning for climate change and administers the established cooperation on climate change adapta- legislation relating to water supplies and sewer- tion with Portugal, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia age. The Norwegian Building Authority and the under the EEA and Norway Grants scheme. Norwegian Public Roads Administration are The organisation of central government agen- responsible for assessing the implications of cli- cies’ adaptation work was evaluated in Adapting to mate change for infrastructure such as buildings a changing climate, which points out that a flexi- and roads. A number of other central government ble, project-based organisational model has a authorities are also involved in climate change number of advantages in this new and unfamiliar adaptation. In addition to ensuring the necessary area. However, the model also has limitations in efforts within their own organisation, they are the longer term, particularly as regards predicta- required to provide information to municipalities, bility and a long-term approach. The experience counties and the general public. gained from the five-year project during which the It is both practical and effective for municipal, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency county and central government authorities to base Planning provided the secretariat will be evalu- climate change adaptation on a common knowl- ated, and after this it will be decided where the edge base and to coordinate their efforts closely. responsibility for coordination of climate change To promote coordination at the central govern- adaptation at directorate level is to be placed. The ment level, a working group including representa- evaluation will include responsibility for work tives of all the relevant ministries was established, relating to storm water management and sea level rise. The Government will give a fuller account of 1 Since the white paper was published, the Directorate for how climate change adaptation at directorate level Nature Management and the Climate and Pollution Agency is to be coordinated in connection with the 2014 have been merged to form the new Norwegian Environ- ment Agency. budget. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 41 Climate change adaptation in Norway

4.4 International developments things to building up climate services, which are an essential basis for climate change adaptation The IPCC’s special report Managing the Risks of and disaster risk reduction, planning adaptation at Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate national level, and adaptation in important sectors Change Adaptation states that there is evidence of such as agriculture and health. Norway has an increase in certain types of extreme weather played a key role in the establishment of the events, and that it is likely that this is a result of Global Framework for Climate Services under the anthropogenic climate change. Insurance payouts World Meteorological Organization. Climate are rising, and the world community is spending change adaptation is also one of the two main pil- more and more on humanitarian aid related to nat- lars of the recently established Green Climate ural hazards. The IPCC report points out that Fund. although the economic losses from climate- In its national adaptation efforts Norway can related events are rising, the number of human learn a great deal from the work being done lives lost as a result of such events has dropped within the framework of the Climate Change Con- considerably. In other words, our ability to deal vention and the International Strategy for Disaster with extreme weather events has improved as Reduction, and from reports published by the measured in human lives, but in economic terms IPPC. These serve as arenas for bringing together the costs have risen. The IPCC points out that the experience and case studies of sound ways of costs can be considerably reduced through adap- organising adaptation work. A great deal of work tation and disaster risk reduction. The UN Inter- is also being done internationally, particularly national Strategy for Disaster Reduction points within the OECD, on the development of methods out that in some cases, risk reduction measures and tools for economic analyses of climate change can reduce the costs of natural disasters by as and adaptation and cost-benefit analyses of adapta- much as 80 %. The conclusion is clear – adaptation tion measures. Norway can benefit from this in its and risk reduction highly cost-effective. work at national level. Although the economic costs of natural hazard events are highest in developed countries, the economic burden for the poorest countries is con- 4.5 Knowledge and learning in climate siderably higher. change adaptation Support for adaptation in developing countries has become an increasingly important issue Although our techniques for dealing with the chal- under the UN Convention on Climate Change. A lenges posed by today’s climate have produced a framework known as the Cancun Adaptation considerable body of knowledge to draw on, cli- Framework has been built up under the Conven- mate change adaptation is a relatively new field. tion in order to enhance action on adaptation in Knowledge about climate change and its impacts, both developed and developing countries. Among and about how Norwegian society is adapting to the main elements are strengthening the knowl- climate change, is advancing rapidly. Adaptation edge base for all countries, capacity-building for work must always be based on the best available adaptation, and providing support for developing information about climate change and how the countries through capacity-building, transfer of changes can be addressed. technology and financing. Norway has followed In addition, regular updates of the knowledge up its commitments by increasing support for cli- base are needed, including climate projections for mate change adaptation in developing countries. Norway and analyses of the impacts of climate This support is being channelled among other change on nature and society. 42 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

5 A shared knowledge platform

damage, and will entail substantial economic The Government: costs. Effective preventive work requires knowl- • intends to ensure that the knowledge base for edge of how exposure to climate-related risks climate change adaptation is strengthened increases in different sectors and in local commu- through closer monitoring of climate change, nities. More knowledge is needed about the continued expansion of climate change future costs of climate change, and how adapta- research and the development of a national tion needs can be incorporated and taken into centre for climate services. account in current policy and planning. Research should help to identify the instru- Global climate change is already resulting in ments and policies that will best enable us to pro- major changes for many local communities in mote a low-emission economy and at the same Norway. Towards the end of this century, the con- time address the impacts of climate change. The sequences of climate change for both nature and links between adaptation to and mitigation of cli- society will become more and more marked. mate change are becoming increasingly impor- tant. Social science research on climate change has been strengthened in recent years, but we still 5.1 A shared need for knowledge need much more knowledge on how climate change considerations can be incorporated into Knowledge is an essential basis for effective cli- practical policies and specific measures. mate change adaptation. The need for more Climate change will have political, social and knowledge is a recurring theme in nearly all areas cultural implications. To make climate policy affected by climate change. Generation and dis- more effective, we need a better understanding of semination of basic knowledge about climate changes in value systems, management systems, change in Norway is largely organised under the financial institutions and technological and biolog- auspices of the public authorities. In 2013, the ical systems. This also involves questions relating Research Council of Norway will provide funding to the development of prosperity, general frame- totalling an estimated NOK 400 million for climate work conditions and changes in attitudes and research, about twice as much as in 2005. This behaviour. The way people communicate about research is carried out at universities, university climate change is an important research topic in colleges and other institutes that supplement the itself. funding with resources of their own. Norwegian The climate in the Arctic is changing rapidly, researchers are also taking part in a range of EU- which is opening up new prospects for economic funded research projects. This section following activity and boosting international interest in the presents basic knowledge needs related to the cli- region. Commercial activities are expected to mate and climate change across sectors. They are expand in the years ahead, and the Arctic environ- based on the report Adapting to a changing cli- ment is vulnerable. New and expanded activity mate (NOU 2010: 10) and the report presented by must therefore be based on sound knowledge of Klima21, the Government’s strategic forum for cli- the risks and environmental impacts associated mate research. with different types of commercial activities. For the primary industries, it is particularly important to ensure that any new opportunities Social transformation and adaptation in response to arising from climate change are included in climate change research and development activities. More frequent and more severe extreme weather events will mean an increasing risk of losses and 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 43 Climate change adaptation in Norway

tries, for example through vulnerability and risk Impacts on nature and society assessments, and on which types of investments, Human society is dependent on ecosystem ser- operating routines and rules will result in effective vices such as food supplies, pollination, access to transformation and adaptation. clean drinking water and flood control. More knowledge is needed about how climate change will affect ecosystem services in Norway and The climate system and climate change neighbouring areas, including the economic In the 2012 white paper on Norwegian climate pol- impacts. We also need a good overview of the icy (Meld. St. 21 (2011–2012)), the Government impacts of climate change on species and ecosys- announced that it would make a substantial contri- tems, the resilience of ecosystems, and the tipping bution to the global efforts to improve the knowl- points beyond which changes may be irreversible. edge base for addressing climate change, and to Moreover, it is important to improve understand- strengthening basic climate research. This was ing of interactions between climate change and followed up in Norway’s 2013 budget, in which the ocean acidification, persistent, bioaccumulative Government proposed an increase of NOK 47 mil- and toxic substances and other pollutants, lion in allocations to climate research. changes in biodiversity, and other environmental Basic knowledge about the climate system is pressures. The environmental authorities need to the foundation for research on the impacts of cli- receive new information about changes in ecosys- mate change, which in turn provides the basis for tems on an ongoing basis, so that uncertainty research on risk management and adaptation. Cli- about trends for key populations and species can mate change adaptation is dependent on projec- be reduced. The boundaries of a number of cli- tions for variables such as temperature, precipita- mate zones and ecological systems go through tion, wind, flooding, sea level, ocean currents, Norwegian waters, and this means that knowl- wave height and sea ice in different areas and edge about changes in ecosystems and species regions. A number of key research goals are distribution in response to climate change is par- therefore related to improving understanding of ticularly important for Norway. Studies of key spe- the climate system. They include targeted work to cies and further development of ecosystem mod- develop downscaling methodology for climate els can provide important information as a basis models and the development of seasonal forecasts for climate change adaptation. and decadal-scale scenarios. More specialised cli- The uptake of CO2 in seawater is resulting in ocean acidification. According to the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this will Box 5.1 Climate models and particularly affect the Arctic and other cold downscaling climate projections regions. Climate change combined with ocean acidification will have major impacts on the Climate models are used as a basis for assess- marine environment, and more knowledge is ing how the climate will change towards the needed about the impacts of ocean acidification on end of this century. They are the starting point ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture. More for specific estimates – for example of how intensive monitoring and identification of suitable much the summer temperature will rise in indicator species will be needed in this connec- Tromsø by 2050, or how much more rain and tion. snow Bergen must expect in winter by the end Flooding, landslides and avalanches put pres- of the century. But there is a considerable ele- sure on important infrastructure such as roads, ment of uncertainty in such projections, and railways, ICT infrastructure, buildings, and the level of uncertainty increases when projec- energy, water and waste water installations. Cli- tions are made for smaller geographical areas. mate change will affect the economic base for It is easier to make reliable global or regional agriculture, forestry, fisheries, aquaculture and projections of climate change than to make other food production. Many sectors and indus- them for a single municipality. The climate tries are vulnerable both to gradual changes and models are therefore being further developed to extreme weather events, and more reliable and in order to reduce the uncertainty of projec- more detailed local knowledge is needed about tions with better spatial resolution, so that the impacts of climate change in a number of dif- they are more suitable for practical use by ferent areas. More knowledge is also needed municipalities. about the impacts on different sectors and indus- 44 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway mate services are also needed for planning pur- poses, and basic climate research should be used New climate programme under the Research Council to support the development of such services. of Norway Recent research has helped to improve fore- The NORKLIMA programme is the Research casting of extreme weather in the Arctic. New Council’s main climate research initiative and one research also indicates that it should be possible of its seven large-scale programmes. It is a 10-year to develop seasonal and decadal forecasts. If this programme due to be completed in 2013, and the is successful, it will have major implications for Research Council is setting up a new major cli- society’s adaptive capacity. Such forecasts would mate research initiative. provide industries such as agriculture, forestry The new research programme that is being and fisheries, shipping and construction with valu- established will also be a large-scale programme. able additional information as a basis for their Large-scale programmes are the Research Coun- decisions. Continuing targeted research on the cil’s flagship programmes for key research areas. climate system will therefore have major benefits They have clear social and scientific objectives for society. Links between oceans/ice, the atmos- and a broad scope, promote the internationalisa- phere and land surface, and the exchange of tion of research, have substantial annual budgets, energy and water vapour are a fundamental part and are financed by several ministries. of this research. Changes in the climate system Future Norwegian climate research should near the poles play a key role in global change. strengthen the interdisciplinary aspect of Studies of the Arctic and Antarctic climate will research. There must be a closer focus on the provide information that is of great value for links between research questions in different understanding global climate change and develop- areas, both within climate research and between ing adaptation strategies. Studies of the climate in climate research and related areas. For example, the polar regions are also of interest in the context there is a pressing need for closer links between of short-lived climate forcers, which are particles climate and energy research and climate and envi- and gases including black carbon (soot particles), ronmental research. Achieving this will require ozone, methane and some HFCs. They have rapid dialogue, cooperation and the involvement of both effects on the climate system, the precise impacts researchers and users in planning and carrying varying from one type of climate forcer to another. out research. They also have other negative environmental A national climate research programme is a impacts and adverse effects on people’s health. good platform for enhancing Norwegian participa- Much more knowledge is needed to identify the tion in international research cooperation, such as best ways of reducing emissions of these sub- the EU framework research programmes and the stances and to understand their impacts on cli- European Joint Programming Initiative JPI Cli- mate change and their implications for health and mate. environmental policy. Climate change is making the development Changes in carbon stocks on land and in the process more difficult, because exposure and vul- oceans and marine ecosystems are of great signifi- nerability to environmental and climate change cance for climate change. Knowledge about the are particularly high in many poor countries. A natural carbon cycle is therefore needed to pre- concerted global effort to enhance knowledge dict more precisely how the climate will change about the climate is needed. Norway has a respon- during the present century. Measures to enhance carbon uptake by natural sinks and to alter the heat balance of the Earth have attracted growing Box 5.2 JPI Oceans attention in recent years as possible instruments JPI Oceans is a joint European research pro- for addressing climate change. Such measures gramme established on Norway’s initiative. Its are controversial because it is difficult to assess purpose is to coordinate and enhance their impacts and verify whether they function as research on the most important issues in intended, and because they will generally only European seas and oceans. Climate change have short-term effects. Nevertheless it is impor- adaptation will be a key topic in this pro- tant to obtain more knowledge in this field. A bet- gramme too. ter understanding of the climate system is essen- tial for developing measures of this kind. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 45 Climate change adaptation in Norway

risk of landslides and avalanches will change. Cli- mate monitoring programmes are often linked to Box 5.3 The European Climate research projects or the management tasks of Adaptation Platform public authorities in various sectors. For instance, The web-based European Climate Adaptation the fisheries management authorities need good Platform CLIMATE-ADAPT was launched in time series of observations so that they can iden- March 2012. It is an initiative of the European tify changes that need to be taken into considera- Commission and helps users to access and tion. To provide the authorities with a complete share information on: overview of the impacts of climate change on the – Expected climate change in Europe natural environment and key sectors, monitoring – Current and future vulnerability of regions activities must be coordinated. It may also be nec- and sectors essary to collate and coordinate results and analy- – National and transnational adaptation stra- ses as a basis for policy development and the tegies development of specific adaptation measures – Adaptation case studies and potential adap- across sectors. tation options – Tools that support adaptation planning 5.2 Tailored knowledge about the future climate sibility here, and an international evaluation con- Climate change is creating a need for a generally cluded that Norwegian climate research is of a available service to provide information on the very high standard. This puts Norway in a par- current and future climate and play a part in trans- ticularly good position to contribute to the devel- lating climate science into practical adaptation opment of knowledge about the climate system work. People who are involved in municipal land- for the international community. use planning need to know how the probability of flooding will change in flood-prone areas. Farmers need to know what changes to expect in the grow- Climate monitoring ing season and rainfall patterns. Those who are Monitoring is essential to reveal changes in cli- responsible for drinking water supplies need infor- mate variables such as precipitation and wind. mation on changes in water temperature and run- Extreme precipitation events have been identified off to reservoirs. And people who make economic as one of the main climate-related threats in Nor- analyses of public and private investments need way. It is to be expected that wind direction and information on how climate change will affect the wind strength will be affected by climate change. structure and profitability of investments. It is Since both precipitation and changes in wind pat- much easier to take climate change into account if terns can have major impacts, it is important to we have a sound knowledge of today’s climate and monitor the situation closely in order to detect any know more about what to expect in the future. trends. To ensure that sufficient data is available Regional climate models are already available, for modelling short-term precipitation, measure- and there are projections that quantify expected ments from a large number of sites in all regions changes in temperature and precipitation. The of the country are needed, since extreme weather projections are based on climate models and are events are generally local in character. Sound available in map form and in reports. However, wind and precipitation data are also needed as a the resolution of the maps is too low for use in basis for improving forecasting of extreme practical planning, and will not meet the specific weather events in the future and preventing loss mapping and planning needs of actors in various of life and material assets. sectors. Some enterprises and municipalities have Climate monitoring will be important for many obtained data that are better tailored to their sectors to detect changes and gain an overview of needs, for instance through participation in the impacts of climate change. Because natural research projects. hazards such as storms, flooding, landslides and The Norwegian Meteorological Institute is the avalanches can have such serious impacts, more Norwegian institution responsible for monitoring knowledge is needed about how climate change the atmospheric climate and for providing infor- will affect the probability of such events. For mation to the public on how variables such as pre- example, we need to know more about how the cipitation and temperature are expected to 46 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway change. The Institute of Marine Research has sim- services. The Water Resources and Energy Direc- ilar responsibilities for the marine climate, from torate is Norway’s national centre of expertise for the open sea to coastal waters and the fjords. The hydrology, and monitors hydrological changes, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo- including flooding. rate has national responsibility for hydrological One important reason for establishing a centre and cryosphere monitoring. All three institutions for climate services is to provide support for work provide projections and information on various cli- on climate change adaptation by the municipali- mate variables to municipalities, agencies and ties and sectoral authorities. The national centre research institutions. for climate services is also one of the specific Data tailored for specific purposes, combined measures recommended by the committee in the with information about today’s climate, has report Adapting to a changing climate. The frame- proved to be a good basis for assessments by com- work for the new centre must enable it to provide panies and municipalities of how climate change practical support and make it easier for the munic- will affect their activities in different areas. The ipalities to carry out the necessary impact assess- report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU ments and climate change adaptation measures. 2010: 10) highlights the need to improve dissemi- Norway’s centre for climate services should nation of data on both today’s and the future cli- be developed in a way that enables those who are mate. The Government agrees with this conclu- responsible for risk assessment and for adapting sion, and will step up the dissemination of relevant their activities to climate change to carry out their climate data as a basis for assessing the impacts of work as effectively as possible and with clear tar- climate change in various fields. The municipali- gets. ties have a particular need for this kind of informa- The centre will: tion. – make available and coordinate climate and hyd- The term «climate services» is used to mean rological data and other information that is cur- the delivery of climate information to different rently held by many different central govern- users. This is a high-priority field internationally. ment agencies; It is high on the agenda of the EU’s framework – improve dissemination of climate data and hyd- research programmes, and research on climate rological projections for use by the public admi- services is one of the main activities of the new nistration, especially at municipal level; joint programming initiative JPI Climate. The – analyse how the consequences of climate World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has change will vary from one part of Norway to for a number of years been focusing on capacity another, as a basis for the development of cli- building and international assistance to enable mate indexes and climate zones for use in developing countries to build up climate services. practical climate change adaptation, see Chap- Norway has played a key role in this vital interna- ter 8.5 on infrastructure and the 2012 white tional work. paper on building policy (Gode bygg for eit betre According to the WMO, climate services samfunn Meld. St. 28 (2011–2012), in Norwe- include a wide range of activities intended to gen- gian only); erate and make available information on the his- – share its expertise on climate change through torical, current and future climate and its impacts advice and courses held in cooperation with on human and natural systems. Climate services other authorities. also include information and support that can help users to choose the right product for the decisions The centre will be developed in close dialogue they need to make and explain the uncertainty with its users. A pilot project in Troms county, associated with the information provided. also involving the Directorate for Civil Protection In Norway, cooperation on the development of and Emergency Planning, is currently developing a national centre for climate services was estab- and evaluating products that municipalities can lished in 2001, involving the Norwegian Meteoro- use to incorporate climate change into their plan- logical Institute, the Norwegian Water Resources ning activities. Information technology plays an and Energy Directorate and the Bjerknes Centre essential role in climate research. Basic climate for Climate Research, in Bergen. The Bjerknes research, including modelling of the climate sys- Centre has Norway’s leading expertise on climate tem, requires high-performance computing modelling and has provided important input to the resources. The use and development of ICT tools IPCC’s work. The Meteorological Institute has and products will be a key task for the centre. overall responsibility for the centre for climate 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 47 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 5.4 Short-term precipitation monitoring and forecasting In recent years, there has been a growing duration-frequency (IDF) values) from the web- demand for short-term precipitation data. To sites. In the course of 2013, about 100 of the meet this need, the Norwegian Meteorological Meteorological Institute’s automatic stations will Institute has intensified monitoring and analysis be upgraded to register precipitation every 10 of precipitation intensity. Activities have minutes. included improving forecasting models, more Information on the extent and intensity of extensive use of weather radar, more real-time areas of precipitation for large parts of Norway measurement of precipitation intensity and step- can also be obtained from the weather radar net- ping up the research effort. work. There are now nine weather radars in Precipitation was measured at least once an operation: the two newest are in Hurum, south hour at 50 stations in 2005, increasing to 170 sta- of Oslo (2010), and Berlevåg in Finnmark tions in 2012. Many weather stations have been (2012). A new weather radar at Sømna in Nord- established and are operated in cooperation with land will come into operation in 2014. The new- for example municipalities. Most of these trans- est weather radars provide better estimates of fer data directly to the Meteorological Institute, precipitation intensity and can distinguish which carries out quality control and makes the between snow and rain. Work is in progress to data available on its websites. The municipalities improve the quality of radar data on precipita- either receive the data automatically or down- tion and to combine radar data with actual land- load measurements and statistics (intensity- based measurements of precipitation.

The national centre for climate services will from a wide range of institutions with relevant provide a better basis for practical work on cli- expertise. Up till now, it has been run by the mate change adaptation. Climate projections for national secretariat for climate change adaptation Norway need to be updated regularly as new in the Directorate for Civil Protection and Emer- results become available from the global climate gency Planning. models. The Climate and Pollution Agency is Norway’s The expertise developed by the centre for cli- national focal point for the IPCC, and is responsi- mate services will also be relevant in other con- ble for coordinating all processes relating to the texts, for example as a basis for integrating cli- IPCC’s work and for providing information on the mate considerations more fully as an element of results. The IPCC assesses scientific information development policy. on the climate system and ways of mitigating cli- mate change and adapting society to both gradual climate change and extreme weather events. The Other sources of relevant information Climate and Pollution Agency is therefore in a Many other research institutes, universities and good position to assisting in the development of directorates also have relevant expertise and pro- the Norwegian knowledge base for climate vide information on how the projected climate change adaptation. change will affect Norway. They include the Cli- The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsi- mate and Pollution Agency, the Public Roads ble for performance monitoring of Norway’s work Administration, the Institute of Marine Research, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and for the Norwegian Polar Institute, the National Rail international reporting. The Agency is also Administration, the Norwegian Institute for Air responsible for ensuring climate change adapta- Research, the National Institute of Nutrition and tion in the sectors for which it is responsible, for Seafood Research, the Norwegian Forest and example water supply and sewerage and landfills. Landscape Institute, and Cicero (Center for Inter- This puts the Agency in a good position to con- national Climate and Environmental Research). sider the links between mitigation and adaptation. Information is already being shared with others to The Climate and Pollution Agency is also respon- some extent. A great deal of information is col- sible for assessing whether climate change affects lected together on the website Klimatilpasning.no, other pollution and environmental pressures, and which is part of the Norwegian Government por- must adjust regulation in other sectors to avoid tal. The website provides targeted information negative effects. 48 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

The national centre for climate services must coastline are still rising. The Norwegian Mapping be developed in close cooperation with relevant Authority has therefore attached special impor- authorities. It should also be considered whether tance to strengthening its geodetic expertise, and more agencies and research institutes should be will continue this process so that it can provide linked to the centre, in addition to those that are the necessary support for Norwegian and interna- already cooperating on its development at present. tional climate research.

Detailed topographical data 5.3 Maps and spatial information There is a pressing need for better maps as a basis Planners and politicians need information on the for statutory risk and vulnerability assessments in characteristics of different areas and their value to municipal planning processes. Topographical vari- society in order to assess risk and ensure sound ations that are not revealed by smaller scale maps planning. Good maps that provide precise geo- may be very important for planning in some graphical information are therefore an essential areas, for example where smaller streams pose a basis for assessing the risk posed by climate high flooding risk or may do in the future. change in different sectors. In a 2012 white paper on the risk of flooding, Information is needed in many different areas, landslides and avalanches (Meld. St. 15 (2011– for example on buildings and other infrastructure, 2012), the Government gave an account of efforts land use, river systems, sea level and topography. to prevent loss of life and damage to property. Norway has good general map data in many Assessing and mapping flood, landslide and ava- fields, particularly for areas that are being devel- lanche hazard and risk requires a great deal of oped, and where the data is kept up to date information and high-quality underlying data. For through co-financing. Nevertheless, more contin- analyses relating to flooding, landslides and ava- uous and precise mapping is needed to provide a lanches, it is particularly important to have satisfactory basis for risk and vulnerability analy- detailed topographic data that can be used as a ses and for mapping flood, landslide and ava- basis for analyses of the terrain and geological lanche risk. There will also be a growing need for structures. better information for general and emergency The most cost-effective way of obtaining topo- planning, and it is important to be able to collate graphical data is by airborne laser scanning. So information from different sources quickly and far, a total area of about 100 000 km2 has been effectively. scanned at different levels of detail in Norway. Central government agencies and municipalities are cooperating on this work by organising local Sea level monitoring projects within a framework called Geovekst. Monitoring sea level is an international task. The Norwegian Mapping Authority is the competent authority in Norway. The monitoring system Data on the power grid and other infrastructure includes measurements from tidal gauges along Climate change will make installations that are the entire coast and a number of geodetic moni- exposed to wind, flooding, landslides and ava- toring programmes. Now that the Mapping lanches more vulnerable. This includes lines and Authority’s geodetic observatory at Ny-Ålesund cables that are part of the electricity and ICT infra- has been modernised, Norway is making a sub- structure. Some types of cables can be laid under- stantial contribution to international cooperation ground to give protection against wind and on sea level monitoring. weather, and it is likely that this solution will be Measuring actual changes in sea level involves more widely used in the future. Underground considerable scientific and technological chal- cables are protected, and will generally have a lenges. Very precise and reliable measurements longer lifetime. The disadvantages are the limited are needed to make comparisons possible over space when many different actors need to use the long distances all round the world. Modelling same area for their installations, and that mainte- future changes in sea level at regional level is a nance is more difficult and more expensive. There very complex process, since these changes are are several other considerations to take into strongly influenced by the earth’s gravitational account for electricity infrastructure, including field and its variations. In addition, postglacial costs and how long it takes to make repairs. As a rebound means that sections of the Scandinavian general rule, underground cabling will be used 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 49 Climate change adaptation in Norway

cult for actors to cooperate. The Ministry of the Environment, together with a number of industry Box 5.5 Climate change and organisations, has established a cooperation adaptation needs: power and ICT forum to gain an overview and assess how prob- infrastructure lems can be solved. The Government wishes to – Closer focus on climate change adaptation, continue this cooperation with a view to improving accessibility, reliability, civil protection, coordination. emergency planning and vulnerability. – More infrastructure needs to be laid under- ground: involves more use of undeveloped Cooperation on the establishment and management areas, costs of maintaining and moving of spatial information cables are high. Geographical information and geographical infor- – Public authorities and private actors are mation systems (GIS) are intended to cover the becoming more and more dependent on needs of a wide range of sectors. Precise geo- each other. graphical information is essential for assessing cli- – Closer coordination and better cooperation mate-related risks and the effects of risk-reduction between national authorities is needed. measures. Information on vegetation cover, soils, – Better rules on cables and other infrastru- geophysical conditions, sea level, tides and post- cture are needed (requirements to register glacial rebound in needed to document trends and infrastructure, documentation, standardi- changes resulting from natural geophysical pro- sed surveying methods, management and cesses and from climate change. The Norwegian exchange of data). Mapping Authority is responsible for climate – Poor coordination creates unnecessary change adaptation within its own sphere of conflicts between public road authorities, responsibility, and contributes to the work of road owners and actors responsible for other sectors. Up-to-date and easily accessible cables, etc in connection with excavation. map data and spatial information are needed for land-use management, forestry and agriculture, transport and communications and risk and vul- nerability analyses, for use both as management more for electricity transmission at lower voltages and analytical tools and as tools for documenting (grid voltage up to 22 kV), while a more restrictive change. Detailed geographical information, practice will be followed for high-voltage lines. together with downscaled climate projections, will Society is so dependent on underground infra- provide a better basis for climate change adapta- structure that requirements for easy access for tion in a number of sectors. maintenance and upgrading are becoming Norway’s 2012 Spatial Data Act requires cen- increasingly strict. The requirements for security tral government authorities and municipalities to of supply and reliability, combined with the fact share spatial data and make it available in elec- that Norway has a large number of grid owners tronic form. In the long term, this will provide a who have to communicate with different munici- better overview and access to basic data and the- pal, county and central government owners of matic data that the public administration needs for roads, makes the situation very complicated. land-use planning, nature management, risk and Knowing what has been installed underground vulnerability analyses, climate change adaptation and precisely where is essential for effective coop- and other purposes. eration. A notification system has been estab- The Norwegian Mapping Authority is coordi- lished requiring information to be reported before nating cooperation on an infrastructure for spatial any excavation starts. Information on the location information both at central government and at of electricity infrastructure is often confidential, county level. The Authority has established a sec- so that it is not marked on public maps, but the retariat for this purpose. A coordination commit- information is available to anyone who has a pro- tee has been set up in each county including rep- fessional need for it. A lack of awareness in this resentatives of each of the parties, and these will area results in unnecessary damage during exca- give advice on priorities for mapping projects and vation, lengthens the process and makes it diffi- draw up spatial data plans. 50 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

6 Risk reduction and natural hazard management

The Government: • Will appoint a committee to evaluate the cur- rent legislation and as appropriate make pro- posals for amendments to provide a better framework for the municipalities, which will have to deal with increasing volumes of storm- water as a result of climate change.

Climate change adaptation is often considered through a sectoral lens. To gain an overall picture of responsibilities for dealing with climate change, it is important to use a different starting point: the types of phenomena and events on which climate change is expected to have a strong influence. In Norway’s case, the main problems are expected to be water-related – in particular flooding, land- slides and avalanches, stormwater and sea level rise.

6.1 Civil protection and emergency planning

The purpose of civil protection and emergency planning work is to safeguard life, health and Figure 6.1 Results of a rockfall in Lærdal in property against various kinds of risks and Western Norway threats. Climate change will alter the level and Photo: Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Plan- nature of the risks we face in a number of ways. ning More frequent and more intense extreme weather events, changes in patterns of flooding, landslides and avalanches, and a greater risk of forest fire in example electricity and transport infrastructure. certain parts of the country will make it necessary And disruption of critical infrastructure such as to improve risk reduction and emergency plan- roads, telephone systems and the electricity sup- ning. It is therefore essential for a safe and secure ply system may in itself be a threat to life and society that the changing climate is taken into health. The projected rise in precipitation and account in this work. A white paper on civil protec- more intense precipitation events may alter the tion published in 2012 (Meld. St. 29 (2011–2012) nature and level of the risks people face. Types of Samfunnssikkerhet, in Norwegian only) is flooding and slides that people in Norway are not intended to strengthen efforts in this field. The accustomed to may become more common, for Government is also taking steps to ensure that example pluvial (rain-related) flooding. Changes efforts to boost Norway’s risk reduction capacity in precipitation and flooding patterns may entail a and capacity to manage extreme weather events risk of flooding and slides in areas that have not are incorporated into overall civil protection work. previously experienced such events. Extreme weather events pose a risk to life and In the 2012 edition of the annual national risk health and may disrupt critical infrastructure, for review published by the Directorate for Civil Pro- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 51 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Figure 6.2 Rockfall barrier along a road Photo: Espen Bratlie/Samfoto/NTBscanpix tection and Emergency Planning, the risk of natu- (meaning that crises should be dealt with at the ral hazard events such as flooding associated with lowest possible administrative level); and the prin- extreme weather events is assessed as high in ciple that the organisational structures set up to Norway.1 Climate change is expected to reinforce deal with crises should be as similar as possible to this picture. The Directorate emphasises that the those used in normal circumstances. In the 2012 consequences of different types of climate-related white paper on civil protection, the Government events will depend on how well Norway is pre- introduced a fourth principle, that crisis manage- pared. The review highlights steps to make infra- ment must also be based on cooperation. This was structure more resilient and strengthen early intended to clarify the Government’s overall warning systems as important ways of reducing responsibility for civil protection and emergency loss and damage. There are close links between planning across sectors. In accordance with these the preventive aspect of civil protection and cli- principles, civil protection and emergency plan- mate change adaptation. ning is an integral part of the work of all sectors in Norway. The authorities in each sector are there- fore required to develop their own civil protection Division of responsibilities and emergency plans and instruments for their A variety of tools and instruments can be used in area of responsibility, and that the municipalities civil protection and emergency planning work. In have overall responsibility for civil protection and Norway, this work is based on the principle that emergency planning at local level. those responsible for a particular field under nor- The Ministry of Justice and Public Security mal circumstances are also responsible for deal- has the overall responsibility for ensuring policy ing with crises; the principle of subsidiarity coherence in the field of civil protection. In addi- tion to initiating and carrying out measures, the Ministry takes initiatives vis-à-vis other govern- 1 Nasjonalt risikobilde 2012, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (National Risk Review for Nor- ment agencies and is responsible for coordinating way 2012, in Norwegian only) policy and for performance monitoring in all sec- 52 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Security policy crisis CONSEQUENCE

Influenza pandemic

Nuclear accident Flood Storm

Energy shortage Ship collision Gas/Oil blow-out Fjellskred Cyber attack Industrial fire Volcanic eruption Terrorist attack Gas leak

Solar storm

Forest fire

PROBABILITY

Figure 6.3 Risk matrix showing the probability and consequences of particularly serious events, from the 2012 edition of the national risk review for Norway Source: Nasjonalt risikobilde 2012, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (National Risk Review for Norway, in Norwegian only) tors. The Ministry is also responsible for contrib- uting to close international cooperation. The Directorate for Civil Protection and Emer- gency Planning is the competent authority under the Ministry, and maintains an overview of risk and vulnerability in Norway. The Directorate has the overall responsibility for coordinating risk reduction and natural hazard management. Nor- way’s national platform for disaster risk reduction was established in 2011as a forum for cooperation between bodies that have responsibilities relating to natural hazards and natural hazard events. One of its tasks will be to improve the risk overview for Norway by developing more scenarios, analysing trends and generating more knowledge about vul- nerability. The establishment of the national plat- form was also an important step in following up Norway’s commitments under the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Figure 6.4 From a major forest fire in Froland, The Norwegian Civil Defence is the most Aust-Agder county important resource that can be deployed to give Photo: Nicolai Prebensen/VG/NTBscanpix 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 53 Climate change adaptation in Norway operational support during emergencies. Its the system. Emergency plans must include an responsibilities include many types of climate- overview of the measures the municipality has related events, and it is an important part of the implemented for crisis management. emergency services in this area. For example, the Thus the importance of incorporating climate Civil Defence is used to reinforce municipal change considerations into municipal civil protec- resources for fighting forest fires. tion and emergency planning work, in line with After major natural hazard events, extensive other considerations of civil protection, is strongly clean-up may be needed. In special cases, exper- emphasised in Norway. tise and construction resources can be obtained The county governors are the supervisory through the Council for Emergency Preparedness authorities and ensure that the municipalities in the Construction Sector, which is appointed by comply with their emergency preparedness the Ministry of Trade and Industry. duties. They are also responsible for coordinating civil protection and emergency planning and maintaining an overview of risks and vulnerability Civil protection in municipal planning processes at county level, and function as contact points and Norway’s Civil Protection Act sets out the duties receive reports in the event of incidents and emer- of the municipalities in the field of emergency pre- gencies. paredness, and is designed to ensure that civil protection and emergency planning are incorpo- rated into general planning processes and in con- 6.2 Stormwater management nection with specific planning proposals. Under the Act, municipalities are required to carry out Stormwater means runoff on impermeable sur- an overall risk and vulnerability analysis. This faces such as roofs and roads that originates from must identify the types of incidents or emergen- precipitation, a storm surge or meltwater. Climate cies that may arise, including impacts of climate projections indicate a trend towards more, and change. The analysis must be followed up by the more intense, precipitation in Norway, which will preparation of an overall emergency plan for the result in more stormwater runoff in urban areas municipality, and exercises must be held to test and may lead to urban flooding. This may cause serious damage to buildings and other infrastruc- ture and entail a threat to life and health. The report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: Box 6.1 Goals for civil protection 10) stresses that climate change, with higher total Norwegian society has to deal with a varied and complex set of risks and threats. The Gov- ernment’s goal for civil protection is to provide the population with a strong sense of safety and security by: – effectively reducing the risk of and if possi- ble preventing incidents that may threaten life, health, key assets, functions of the public authorities or other critical societal functions; – ensuring effective emergency planning and the necessary response capacity to deal with serious crime, emergencies and acci- dents; – ensuring the capacity to restore critical societal functions quickly if it is not possi- ble to prevent an incident or emergency; – ensuring that lessons are learned from inci- dents and exercises.

Source: Meld. St. 29 (2011–2012) Samfunnssikkerhet (2012 white paper on civil protection, in Norwegian only) Figure 6.5 A street drain Source: Milich Zoran/Masterfile/NTBscanpix 54 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway precipitation and more frequent intense precipita- tion events, will make stormwater management a Box 6.2 Norwegian Water’s views more challenging task. on stormwater management Urban sewer systems are not generally designed to cope with large volumes of stormwa- Stormwater can be managed through source ter. Norway follows the principle that stormwater control or channelled through the sewer sys- should be managed by infiltration into the ground, tem. Source control makes use of natural soil and this is a statutory requirement in the Water infiltration or drainage via open waterways Resources Act. According to section 7, land and ponds. Developments involving large should as a general rule be built up or otherwise areas of impermeable surfaces and rapid developed in such a way that precipitation can drainage via storm drains tend to intensify continue to drain away by infiltration into the flooding in river systems, which can cause ground. The greater the permeability of the sur- more damage further downstream. face, and the greater the porosity of the soil, the Integrated planning and management of greater the infiltration capacity of an area. Urban urban river systems and stormwater is areas contain a high proportion of impermeable needed. This approach requires close links surfaces – for example car parks, roads, yards and between stormwater management and land- footpaths – that prevent stormwater from infiltrat- use and landscape planning. The most usual, ing naturally into the ground. Urban stormwater is and conventional, approach is to drain surface therefore largely channelled through the munici- water rapidly into underground storm drains pal sewer system, either in separate stormwater and sewers, which convey the water away. For drains that may discharge directly into nearby many years, stormwater has been viewed river systems, or via the sewer systems for waste merely as a problem, but it can also be seen as water, which discharge to waste water treatment a recreational resource and a positive element plants. During intense rainfall, the volume of of the local environment. Conventional solu- stormwater entering the sewer system is often so tions have not always functioned satisfactorily high that some of the mixed stormwater and and can be expensive. Moreover, there has waste water has to be discharged directly to the been a substantial rise in insurance payouts sea or a river system instead of being treated first. for flood damage to buildings and other infra- This can contaminate bathing beaches and drink- structure. ing water and pose a risk to public health and the Norwegian Water is an association of environment. Excessive volumes of stormwater drinking water suppliers and wastewater can also flood buildings, damage infrastructure works in Norway. and seep into drinking water pipelines, resulting in substantial costs and possibly threatening life Source: Norwegian Water Report No. 162/2008 Veiledning i klimatilpasset overvannshåndtering (Climate-resilient and health. Failure to manage stormwater prop- stormwater management) erly through the existing sewer systems is already resulting in major damage. The damage is caused when sewer systems receive far greater volumes of stormwater than source to a greater degree, in other words without those they are designed for. Stormwater volumes it entering the sewer system. This consideration have risen considerably, both because of increas- should be taken into account both in municipal ing precipitation intensity and because the loss of planning processes and for existing built-up areas. green structures, expansion of impermeable sur- A wide range of source control measures may be faces and general densification in urban areas appropriate: means that natural infiltration into the ground is – To increase the proportion of stormwater that no longer sufficient to remove the surface water. infiltrates the ground, it may be necessary to Climate change will exacerbate these problems reduce the area of impermeable surfaces and and make it even more important to find good sys- expand green structures, or ensure that water tems for stormwater management. is drained to local streams and rivers. The intensity of precipitation and the severity – Green roofs and green walls can be established of flooding and storm surges is expected to to retain water. increase. To prevent this from resulting in storm- – Drains, gullies, screens and other part of the water damage, the municipalities need a frame- drainage system for removing water from work that enables them to manage stormwater at roads must be properly maintained. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 55 Climate change adaptation in Norway

– Retention ponds and rain gardens can be esta- Water Directive, which has been incorporated into blished for temporary water storage. the EEA Agreement. There are different require- – Parts of culverted streams and rivers can be re- ments for discharges of municipal waste water opened. from larger urban areas, where the county gover- nor is the pollution control authority, and for smaller urban areas, where the municipality is the Key legislation competent authority. These provisions are also Stormwater management is a municipal responsi- relevant to stormwater management, since bility. However, several different authorities requirements for the design capacity of sewer sys- administer the legislation and determine the tems, storm drains and waste water treatment framework for municipal stormwater manage- plants depend on the quantity of stormwater ment in urban areas. The most important legisla- entering the system. The Climate and Pollution tion is described below. Agency administers the Pollution Control Act and The Planning and Building Act is the most Pollution Regulations on behalf of the Ministry of important tool for the municipalities in their the Environment. The Agency also administers efforts to ensure that land use plans and individ- the Act relating to municipal water supply and ual building projects take into account the need to sewerage systems, which together with the rele- manage increasing volumes of stormwater. The vant provisions of the Pollution Regulations pro- Act is divided into two parts: the Ministry of the vides the legal authority for the municipalities to Environment is the administrative authority for finance water supply and sewerage systems the planning part, while the Ministry of Local Gov- through fees paid by customers. The water and ernment and Regional Development is responsi- waste water fees may not exceed the necessary ble for the part on building matters. The Regula- costs incurred by the municipalities in these sec- tions on technical requirements for building tors. If stormwater is transported through the works under the Act set out various requirements sewer system, the municipality may also include that developers must meet: for example concern- these costs in the fees. ing local infiltration of stormwater and mainte- nance of drainage systems, protection against nat- ural hazards, upgrading and maintenance of water Municipal planning processes supply and sewerage systems and requirements The Planning and Building Act provides the for resolving water seepage problems between municipalities with the authority to set a frame- neighbours. As a general rule, these provisions work for sound stormwater management in plan- apply to new building projects and substantial ning processes and for new developments in modification of existing buildings. The Norwegian urban areas. Municipalities should draw up over- Building Authority administers the regulations on all strategies for stormwater management in such behalf of the Ministry of Local Government and areas. Projected climate change and the accompa- Regional Development. nying increase in precipitation will make this even The Water Resources Act includes provisions more important. A stormwater management strat- on the flow of water in river systems and infiltra- egy should give an account of expected precipita- tion into the ground. Section 7 of the Act states tion and runoff, evaluate the acceptable level of that when land is built up or otherwise developed, flood risk, and identify priority steps towards sus- this should as a general rule be done in such a tainable stormwater management. Key elements way that precipitation can continue to drain away of the strategy should then be into the land-use by infiltration into the ground. The water element of the municipal master plan. This will resources authorities (the municipalities) may make it possible for municipalities to include order measures to improve infiltration into the sound stormwater management as a factor in ground provided that this can be done without preparations for zoning plans and in individual unreasonable costs. The Norwegian Water decisions on building matters. In this context, Resources and Energy Directorate administers Chapter 7 on climate-resilient municipalities and the Water Resources Act on behalf of the Ministry the policy instruments discussed there are also of Petroleum and Energy. relevant. The Pollution Control Act sets out provisions The Government considers it important for on pollution from waste water, and there are more the municipalities to make use of the authority detailed rules in the Pollution Regulations under provided Planning and Building Act and the Regu- the Act. These implement the EU Urban Waste lations on technical requirements for building 56 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway works to plan and lay down requirements for sus- clearer guidelines are needed for determining tainable stormwater management. which conditions the municipalities may impose on residents. In future, increasing volumes of stormwater Improving the framework for stormwater will also make it necessary to consider pollution management from different types of stormwater, and what the In connection with the consultation process on the implications may be for the provisions on waste report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: water in the pollution control legislation. For 10), the municipalities pointed to a need for example, it may be necessary to amend require- clearer rules and a better framework for munici- ments for treatment of stormwater, design specifi- pal stormwater management, particularly in cations for sewers, define waste water to distin- already built-up areas. guish it from unpolluted surface water, or alter As mentioned above, the Planning and Build- guidelines or amend other parts of the legislation. ing Act and the Regulations on technical require- In the Government’s view, the changing cli- ments for building works primarily authorise the mate, accompanied by increasingly intense pre- municipalities to include stormwater management cipitation events and more severe flooding and as a consideration in land-use planning processes storm surges, makes it essential to provide the and when processing applications for new devel- municipalities with a sound legislative framework opments. However, it must be considered whether that will enable them to prevent stormwater dam- these rules for new developments need to be age in urban areas. strengthened so that the municipalities have As described above, the current framework wider powers to set requirements for stormwater includes legislation in several areas, which needs management. The municipalities’ authority to to be considered as a whole and has major impli- order measures to improve infiltration into the cations for a range of interest groups. This field ground under section 7 of the Water Resources involves complex issues, and evaluating them Act is also mainly intended to be used in connec- requires specific expertise. tion with land-use planning (zoning plans and The Government therefore considers it impor- building development plans). tant to ensure that the different interest groups Thus, the current legislation only gives the are involved in an evaluation of the current frame- municipalities limited authority to require work and whether the legislation needs to be changes in stormwater management in existing amended. To ensure that this is a thorough, inclu- built-up areas – which could include replacing sive process, the Government will appoint a com- impermeable surfaces such as asphalt with mittee to evaluate the legislation and key parts of porous materials, channelling water to streams or the framework for effective municipal stormwater to areas where natural infiltration can take place, management. re-opening parts of culverted rivers and streams, or establishing green roofs. Further consideration should be given to widening the municipalities’ 6.3 Flooding, landslides and powers to require improvements to stormwater avalanches management in existing built-up areas. At present, the rules on municipal water sup- Flooding, landslides and avalanches are natural ply and waste water fees limit the possibilities for processes that are influenced by the climate and financing stormwater management measures thus by climate change. The Government’s aim is through these fees. Fees may only be imposed if to improve Norway’s ability to reduce the risks stormwater is channelled through municipal sew- posed by these phenomena. Work is in progress ers and pipelines. Changes to the rules should be to identify hazard zones, avoid developments in considered, including how the criteria for impos- these zones, and protect buildings and settle- ing fees should be formulated. ments at risk. This was described in more detail in During the consultation process on the report a 2012 white paper on flooding, landslides and ava- Adapting to a changing climate, a number of lanches (Meld. St. 15 (2011–2012) Hvordan leve organisations also identified a need to clarify the med farene – om flom og skred, in Norwegian duties and responsibilities of the municipalities in only). their capacity as providers of waste water treat- The consequences of flooding, landslides and ment services, and what residents are entitled to avalanches may become worse with climate expect. This also raises the question of whether change, since these events are expected to occur 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 57 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Insured damages in million NOK (2010 NOK)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Total damages all types: NOK 551 million 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total damages all types: NOK 1509 million 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total damages all types: NOK: 701 million 2012*

Year of damage *Preliminary figures for 2012

Landslide/avalanches: Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund Landslide/avalanches: Norwegian Natural Perils Pool

Flooding: Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund

Flooding: Norwegian Norwegian Natural Perils Pool

Figure 6.6 Monetary value of damages related to flooding, landslides and avalanches registered in Nor- way from 1980 to 2012. Source: Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund/Norwegian Natural Perils Pool more frequently, become more severe and occur sea, and the consequences of flooding will in other areas than today. Climate projections indi- become more severe near river mouths. cate that episodes of locally intense precipitation Mapping of current flood hazard shows that will occur more frequently. This will cause particu- there are 22 000 residents and 7500 buildings in lar problems in small, steep river valleys and in areas exposed to a 1 in 200-year risk of flooding, urban areas, where there are large areas of imper- with the largest numbers of both people and build- meable surfaces. Rising temperatures and a gen- ings in Hedmark and Buskerud counties. These eral rise in precipitation will result in changes in figures are based on areas that have already been patterns of flooding, see Chapter 2.2. Current cli- mapped. In addition, there will be residents and mate projections indicate that in some areas the buildings in flood-prone areas where the flood risk size of floods will rise by more than 20 %. Sea level has not yet been mapped. will probably rise, resulting in higher storm Landslides and avalanches are often triggered surges. This will directly affect areas close to the by meteorological conditions, and both ava- 58 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway lanches and soil slides may be caused by extreme regional plans required by the Planning and Build- weather events. There are clear links between ing Act. They are also major infrastructure owners precipitation, temperature and wind conditions – for example, they are responsible for county and different types of avalanches. Higher temper- roads. atures will reduce the risk of dry snow avalanches The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has at altitudes below 500–1000 metres, but will overall administrative responsibility for managing increase the risk of wet snow avalanches and flood, landslide and avalanche risk in Norway. slush flows. A higher frequency of intense precipi- Operational responsibility for risk reduction in tation events will increase the risk of landslides this field has been assigned to the Norwegian and flood-related debris flows. Quick clay slides Water Resources and Energy Directorate, whose are often triggered by human activity, but may tasks include: also be triggered by prolonged heavy rain and – mapping hazard areas and providing informa- high water flow. Changes in precipitation patterns tion on them; may increase the risk of debris flows and slush – ensuring that flood, landslide and avalanche flows in areas that have not been at risk previ- hazards are taken into account in municipal ously. The vulnerability of an area to landslides land-use plans; and avalanches depends on the infrastructure, – providing the municipalities with technical and buildings and types of buildings within it. The sit- financial support for planning and carrying out ing of residential buildings and other infrastruc- risk reduction measures; ture, the choice of building type, control and – monitoring the situation and providing flood, enforcement routines, and maintenance are all landslide and avalanche warnings; very important issues in areas where there is a – providing municipalities, the police and other landslide or avalanche hazard. The risk of rockfall emergency services with technical support and avalanche susceptibility and hazard has been during emergencies; mapped for most municipalities in coastal and – generating and spreading knowledge about mountain areas of Western Norway and North flooding, landslides and avalanches. Norway, and maps of susceptibility to quick clay However, every central government body has an slides have been produced for 70 municipalities. independent responsibility for risk reduction and At present, 72 000 people (24 000 households) response to flooding, landslides and avalanches live in areas that are susceptible to rockfalls and within its own sphere of responsibility, whether as avalanches, and there are 64 000 people and the authority responsible for legislation and guide- 17 000 buildings in areas that are susceptible to lines in a sector, as a service provider, or as the quick clay slides. manager of its property and infrastructure. The county governors’ responsibilities include coordinating civil protection work at county level Division of responsibilities and promoting and providing advice on civil pro- Many different actors are responsible for reduc- tection and emergency planning. ing the risk of damage from flooding, landslides and avalanches. Individual people are responsible for their own safety, and should take precautions Mapping flood, landslide and avalanche hazard areas on their own property, when out and about in the The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy countryside and during other activities in areas Directorate is to draw up a plan for flood hazard where there is a flood, landslide or avalanche haz- mapping to clarify the priorities for initial mapping ard. of new areas and for updating existing maps, and Under the Planning and Building Act, the that will include all elements and levels of the municipalities are responsible for ensuring that mapping programme. A rolling plan is required to natural hazards, including flood, landslide and make it possible to incorporate new needs that avalanche hazards, are assessed and taken prop- arise as a result of climate change, new technol- erly into account in land-use planning and pro- ogy or other changes that have implications for cessing of building applications. The municipali- the mapping process. ties also have responsibilities as the owners of The Directorate will continue flood hazard land, buildings and other infrastructure such as mapping in flood-prone areas. Existing maps are roads and water supply and sewerage systems. to be updated on the basis of specific criteria, one The counties are the regional planning author- of which is that rivers will be included if climate ities, and are responsible for drawing up the projections indicate that there will be major 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 59 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 6.3 Landslides and avalanches can kill Flooding, landslides and avalanches, together service). Avalanches have killed about 600 peo- with storms, are the climate-related natural haz- ple in Norway since 1900. ards that do most damage and are responsible In the first half of the 20th century, three for the largest numbers of deaths in Norway. large rockfalls in Loen and Tafjord in Western Since 1900, about 1100 people have died in more Norway triggered tsunamis in lakes and killed a than 500 registered landslides and avalanches. total of 175 people. Quick clay slides can also kill Of these, almost 500 people were in built-up many people. The largest quick clay slide in areas, about 70 on roads, 200 were engaged in Norway’s recent history was in Verdal in Nord- outdoor recreation and about 250 were travel- Trøndelag in 1893, where 116 people died. ling in connection with work (including military Flooding causes few deaths in Norway.

Figure 6.7 Avalanche in Western Norway Photo: Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning

changes in the areas exposed to a 1 in 200-year areas in their catchments and for stormwater risk of flooding in their catchments. flooding. Flood hazard mapping of Norway’s All municipalities should map tributaries and smaller rivers has not received much attention so streams where the damage potential is high. Pro- far. In addition to causing problems in urban jections of more frequent local flooding caused by areas, flooding in small river systems and streams heavy rainfall and thus of a higher risk of damage can have serious consequences for the road and along smaller rivers and streams indicate that railway systems. Their safety is partly dependent higher priority should be given to mapping hazard on adequate design specifications for the very 60 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway large numbers of culverts and bridges where and species and habitats. Particular caution must roads and railways cross streams and small rivers. be exercised along steep rivers and streams The Water Resources and Energy Directorate where the water may find a new course or wash will draw up guidelines for municipal mapping to out soil and debris. Maps of potential flood chan- ensure that sound, uniform procedures are fol- nels can provide a good basis for municipal map- lowed. The Directorate can also provide grants for ping of high-risk areas. It is particularly important municipal mapping of river systems, within the to take into account the role of wetlands in flood framework of the government programme for haz- control, see Chapter 8.1. Mires and other wet- ard mapping. The municipalities should coordi- lands store water and release it slowly, which nate flood hazard mapping with mapping storm- slows down the speed of floodwater. As a general water-related hazards and planning safe flood rule, mires and other wetlands should not be channels. State infrastructure owners need to drained or developed. Natural riparian vegetation maintain an overview of the status of culverts and provides good protection against flood damage bridges, and regularly assess the need for upgrad- and erosion of riverbanks, and should be safe- ing. Where feasible, mapping by municipalities guarded in municipal land-use plans. and central government agencies should be coor- In its climate change adaptation strategy, the dinated, particularly collection and analysis of Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo- hydrological data. rate states that if climate projections show that The frequency of landslides and avalanches flooding will increase by more than 20 % in the triggered by intense rainfall/flooding and snow- next 100 years, the projected figures should be falls may rise in parts of Norway as a result of cli- used as a basis for land-use planning. This is mate change. As in the case of flood hazard map- already being implemented in practice. ping, the impacts of climate change must be taken The frequency of landslides and avalanches into account in landslide and avalanche hazard triggered by intense rainfall/flooding and snow- mapping wherever relevant, in a way that is falls may also rise in parts of Norway. So far, little adapted to the use of the data. is known about how this will influence the delimi- Assessing and mapping flood, landslide and tation of hazard zones for landslides and ava- avalanche hazard and risk requires a great deal of lanches using the probability limits that are the information and high-quality underlying data. basis for land-use planning. Even using today’s cli- For analyses relating to flooding, landslides mate as a basis, the level of uncertainty associated and avalanches, it is particularly important to have with the delimitation of hazard zones for land- detailed topographic data that can be used as a slides with an annual probability of less than 1/ basis for analyses of the terrain and geological 1000 is so great that there is no reason to add an structures. extra margin of error to take account of climate change. In addition, it is clear that sea levels will rise. The importance of municipal land-use planning However, there will be regional variations, and in Under the Planning and Building Act, the munici- several areas the rise in sea level will be reduced palities are chiefly responsible, through their plan- by glacial rebound. In 2011, the Directorate for ning activities, for shaping the physical environ- Civil Protection and Emergency Planning pub- ment, maintaining its quality, and finding a bal- lished guidelines on how to take sea level rise into ance between development and conservation on account in municipal planning, in cooperation with the basis of its characteristics and local factors. several other agencies. The importance of municipal land-use planning in The Ministry of the Environment, in coopera- natural hazards risk reduction and climate change tion with the Ministry of Local Government and adaptation was highlighted in a 1997 white paper Regional Development and the Ministry of Petro- on flood control and protection measures leum and Energy, intends to develop recommen- (St.meld. nr. 42 (1996–97) Tiltak mot flom, in Nor- dations or guidelines on how to include the effects wegian only), the 2012 white paper on civil protec- of climate change on flooding, landslides and ava- tion, and the report Adapting to a changing climate lanches, and storm surges/sea level rise in munic- (NOU 2010: 10). ipal planning. Municipal plans must be based on The increasing flood hazard must be taken environmental criteria designed to ensure that the into account in land-use planning. There can be natural environment and water quality are taken major benefits in taking an integrated approach to into account when planning and implementing cli- planning that also includes ecosystem services mate change adaptation measures. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 61 Climate change adaptation in Norway

institutes and bodies in the public administration. Flood defences and landslide/avalanche protection Knowledge needs were noted in the following When upgrading or major repairs to older flood areas: control or landslide/avalanche protection are – the climate system and hydrological and geo- being planned, environmental improvements are logical processes; also considered. For example, flood defences can – extreme precipitation, modelling of small be moved further away from river banks and catchments and urban stormwater manage- closer to the buildings they are primarily intended ment; to protect. In addition to being environmentally – better models and calculation tools that can be beneficial, this can reduce costs and the impact of used in producing warnings and in mapping the flood defences on downstream flooding. flood, landslide and avalanche hazard areas; Ideally, when selecting design specifications – interdisciplinary research on the impacts of for flood defences or landslide/avalanche protec- flooding, landslides and avalanches, and on the tion, it should be possible to achieve as good a design and effects of protection and risk redu- level of protection for existing buildings and infra- ction measures, including more knowledge structure as for new projects, and this also applies about the role of ecosystem services in mitiga- to adaptation to climate change. This aim will be ting flooding, landslides and avalanches. used as the basis for planning such measures, but in practice it may often be difficult to achieve an The research institutions also highlighted the equivalent level of protection, and the costs may need to give priority to improving research infra- be unreasonably high. As for other projects, cost- structure. benefit analyses must be used to assess steps to protect existing buildings and other infrastruc- ture. 6.4 Sea level rise The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate will draw up a manual for landslide/ Sea level rise associated with climate change will avalanche protection, based on established prac- lead to new challenges in some areas. Individuals, tice and experience in other countries. private companies, public bodies and local and central government authorities all have a respon- sibility for taking steps to safeguard their own Flood, landslide and avalanche warning property. Under the Planning and Building Act, Climate change will involve a general increase in the municipalities are responsible for ensuring precipitation and more frequent episodes of that natural hazards are assessed and taken prop- locally heavy and intense rain followed by flooding erly into account in spatial planning and process- in small, steep river catchments. In the longer ing of building applications. This includes the term, it will therefore be important to establish responsibility for taking sea level rise and the more flow monitoring stations in such rivers. This resulting rise in storm surge levels into account. must be combined with modelling with better time resolution to give more precise forecasts, particularly for small catchments. Advice and guidance on sea level rise and storm surges Certain landslide and avalanche types are The website Klimatilpasning.no offers advice and influenced by climate change, especially by guidance on dealing with a rising sea level, based higher and more intense precipitation. Norway’s on a report on sea level rise with estimates of the 2013 budget includes an extra allocation of NOK 9 rise expected in coastal municipalities in Norway million to establish an operative forecasting ser- (Havnivåstigning. Estimater av framtidig havni- vice for landslides and avalanches. The avalanche våstigning i norske kystkommuner, in Norwegian forecasting service has been in operation since 14 only). The report, which was published in 2008 January 2013. and revised in 2009, was drawn up by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and the Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning. The Knowledge needs recommendations in the report are based on pro- In connection with the preparation of the 2012 jections from the Bjerknes Centre, which used cal- white paper on flooding, landslides and ava- culations by the Norwegian Mapping Authority in lanches, an assessment was made of R&D needs taking glacial rebound into account. The recom- in this field, based on input from key research mendations are also based on the Fourth Assess- 62 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel siderable rise in the risk of damage and perhaps in on Climate Change (IPCC), but corrected for the higher insurance premiums and insurance pay- contribution to sea level rise from the large ice outs. If events that are considered to be extreme sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which the today become common, it may not be possible to IPCC report did not include. The risk of an obtain insurance cover at all. A study by the insur- increase in the rate of melting has been included ance company Gjensidige indicates that by the in accordance with the precautionary principle, end of the present century, higher precipitation even though there is a great deal of scientific could result in a 50 % increase in the number of uncertainty as to how much this will contribute to cases of water damage in certain counties.2 sea level rise in the period up to 2100. The Dutch The insurance companies play an important and British authorities, and more recently the role in reducing the economic risk borne by com- Danish authorities, have made similar recommen- panies and private households. Under Norwegian dations. legislation, insurance companies must determine It is very uncertain how much and how insurance premiums on the basis of risk levels. quickly sea level will rise. Knowledge about how This means that they can for example offer lower climate change is influencing sea level is con- premiums to customers who take steps to prevent stantly being developed, so that current informa- climate-related damage. In this way, they can play tion rapidly becomes outdated. Advice should an important part in reducing overall damage therefore be updated regularly. caused by climate change.

Private insurance schemes 6.5 Compensation and insurance cover for natural hazard damage The private regime for insurance against natural hazard damage is regulated in the Natural Hazard Cover against natural hazard damage is provided Insurance Act, according to which all property in three different ways in Norway. Any property that is insured against fire must also be insured that can be insured against fire is covered by pri- against natural hazard damage. As part of this sys- vate natural hazard damage insurance, which is a tem, the insurance companies coordinate their lia- mandatory part of all fire insurance policies. If it is bilities through the Norwegian Natural Perils not possible to take out normal insurance to cover Pool, which settles compensation for damage the property against these risks, the Norwegian caused by natural hazards between insurance Natural Disaster Fund can provide compensation companies that provide fire insurance in Norway. for natural hazard damage. For property that is Membership of the Pool is mandatory for all com- not covered by either of these regimes, the owner panies that provide fire insurance in Norway. Any- carries the risk and liability, or must take out spe- one who for example takes out house insurance cial insurance cover. pays a share of the premium to the Pool: in 2012, The Norwegian model, including both public this was 0.007 % of the amount for which the prop- and private arrangements for insurance against erty was insured. This means that if a house is natural hazard damage, provides major benefits insured for NOK 1 million, the premium for natu- for society, since it gives effective protection ral hazard insurance is NOK 70. The rate was against the financial risk associated with extreme reduced from 0.008 to 0.007 % of the insured value weather events. This is very important for people from 1 January 2012 in response to a favourable who are directly affected by such damage. long-term trend in insured losses. An excess of Climate change will have implications for NOK 8000 is payable for each claim for natural these insurance arrangements. More frequent hazard damage. The Norwegian Natural Perils and more severe extreme weather events and Pool is administered by Finance Norway. more intense precipitation could result in increas- Forest owners can take out fire and/or storm ing damage caused by water penetrating into damage insurance for productive forest on their buildings. Higher precipitation will also worsen properties through the company Skogbrand. This problems relating to building decay. Moreover, is ordinary insurance, even though compensation there will be a higher risk of flooding that could damage bridges, roads, forest, agricultural areas, 2 Orskaug, E and Haug, O (2009) Skadeprediksjoner basert buildings and other infrastructure. på ECHAM4 klimamodelldata (Predictions of damage based on data from the ECHAM4 climate model, in Norwe- In certain vulnerable areas that have already gian only). Technical report, NR-notat SAMBA/29/09, Nor- been built up, climate change may result in a con- wegian Computing Center 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 63 Climate change adaptation in Norway for fire or storm damage to forest is not covered either by the Natural Hazard Insurance Act or by Box 6.4 The most common types the Natural Hazards Act. However, regulations of natural hazard damage and under the Natural Hazards Act provide for the insurance cover Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund to act as rein- surer if the total storm damage to forest exceeds Storms and gales – The lower limit for compen- NOK 200 million in a specific case. This ceiling is sation for storm damage is a strong gale (wind considered in relation to the area of forest insured speed from 20.8 m/s). Meteorological meas- as a proportion of the total area of forest in Nor- urements are used as a basis for determining way. The insurance companies provide compensa- whether the wind has been so strong that the tion for insured areas up to this relative ceiling, damage can be defined as storm damage. and the Fund provides compensation for damage Flooding – For flooding to trigger insur- in excess of this for forest owners who have insur- ance payouts, there must be extraordinary ance. precipitation or rapid snowmelt that results in an abnormally high water level and damaging inundation. Extraordinary levels of natural Compensation from the state for natural hazard runoff that cause water to find new channels damage in sloping terrain will also trigger insurance The Natural Hazards Act regulates the state com- payouts. It is a condition that the situation pensation scheme and the responsibilities of the results in extraordinary damage. Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund. The Act is Landslides and avalanches – These are the administered by the Ministry of Agriculture and sudden movement of earth, rocks, clay, or Food, except for Chapter 3 on measures to pre- snow in the case of avalanches. Rockfalls are vent natural hazard damage, which is the respon- also included here. Frost heave and other sibility of the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. gradual changes in pressure in the soil are not The task of the Norwegian Natural Disaster covered by insurance, nor is settling or subsid- Fund is to provide compensation for natural haz- ence. ard damage in cases where insurance is not availa- Since all fire insurance for buildings and ble through normal insurance arrangements. The other property in Norway includes insurance scheme typically covers for example private roads against natural hazard damage, one form of and bridges, forest (flooding and landslide/ava- insurance is in many cases sufficient. lanche damage), agricultural land, quays and Anyone who is insured has a duty to take breakwaters, sports facilities, tourism and indus- steps to prevent or limit damage. If they do try. not, the insurance company’s liability may be The Natural Hazards Act gives the injured reduced or cease to apply. Similar rules for the party a statutory right to compensation under cer- reduction of claims apply under the state tain conditions. It is only the owner of the object arrangements for compensation for natural or property that has been damaged who is entitled hazard damage if someone has failed to take to compensation. The scheme is intended to make reasonable steps to prevent or limit damage. it possible for private landowners to restore their property after natural hazard damage, so that they Source: Finance Norway can continue their activities. This is achieved through a permanent, general compensation regime with objective criteria and prescribed con- board of the Natural Disaster Fund may make it a ditions, which gives people a predictable entitle- condition for payment of compensation that this is ment to a state benefit when property that cannot done in a way that reduces the risk of natural haz- be insured suffers natural hazard damage. Dam- ard damage in the future. For example, if a dam- age to public property is not covered by the com- aged building or other structure is on a site where pensation scheme. the risk of damage is particularly high, the board The Natural Hazards Act also contains provi- may require it to be moved to a less vulnerable sions that can reduce the risk of future damage to site. The board may also make it a condition that property that has already suffered natural hazard compensation is used to acquire a different prop- damage. As a general rule, any compensation pro- erty outside the high-risk area. In such cases the vided must be used to repair the damage, but the board may require the judicial registration of a declaration that the property is at risk of natural 64 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway hazard damage. An injured party may also receive a grant towards the extra costs of reducing the Box 6.5 Climate change risk of future damage. adaptation in the Nordic insurance The third chapter of the Natural Hazards Act industry sets out provisions on protection against natural hazard damage, and specifies the municipalities’ The Nordic insurance industry has under- rights and duties in this area. The formal responsi- taken to take action to meet the challenge of bility for these provisions, and the corresponding climate change by: budgetary funds, were transferred to the Ministry – developing and offering climatically sustai- of Petroleum and Energy in 2009, when the Nor- nable products within life and non-life insu- wegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate rance; was given administrative responsibility for risk – incorporating climate aspects into invest- reduction measures for all types of landslides and ment strategy considerations; avalanches, based on the same model as that – using climatically sustainable methods in already established for flood risk management. loss prevention and claims settlement; Thus, the Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund is no – organising and conducting their business longer responsible for the payment of grants for in climate-smart ways. protective measures. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Source: Finance Norway Directorate has drawn up guidelines on assistance in assessing, planning and carrying out protective measures. The 2012 white paper on flooding, land- information on landslide and avalanche risk, and slides and avalanches announced that the Minis- risk analyses. try of Petroleum and Energy, as the competent The Norwegian Agricultural Authority authority under the provisions of the Natural Haz- reviewed the state compensation scheme for natu- ards Act, would carry out a complete review of ral hazard damage in 2008.3 Climate change and responsibilities for flood control and landslide/ the accompanying probability of increasing dam- avalanche protection, taking the provisions of the age in the future were an important element of Natural Hazards Act as a starting point. this review. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food used the report as a basis for the consultation doc- uments published on 11 September 2009 propos- Risk reduction ing a number of amendments to the Natural Haz- Climate change may result in an increase in both ards Act in order to simplify it, make it more the scale and the frequency of different types of robust and ensure more rapid processing of natural hazard damage. This makes it appropriate claims for compensation. The proposals are being to consider how the Norwegian model for natural considered by the ministry after the consultation hazard insurance can be adjusted in a way that round. encourages greater caution and promotes risk Climate-related events may play an increas- reduction. A higher risk of damage in itself indi- ingly role in insurance payouts, and the insurance cates that efforts to prevent damage should be industry plays a key role in society’s response to intensified. Action that is being taken includes extreme weather events. The insurance compa- stepping up mapping of flood, landslide and ava- nies have detailed information on climate-related lanche hazard and intensifying risk reduction damage. This information is part of the evidence measures, as described in the 2012 white paper. that makes it possible to state that cases of dam- Protection measures, sound land-use planning age caused by sewage backup have risen in num- and appropriate building techniques are all impor- ber and scale in recent years. This rise can be tant in limiting the damage caused by natural haz- linked to climate change and observed extreme ards. Various planning tools are available for use weather events. in climate change adaptation, for example the flood hazard maps produced by the Norwegian 3 Utredning ny naturskadelov 2008 (Proposal for a new Natu- Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the ral Hazards Act 2008, in Norwegian only), Norwegian Agri- website skrednett.no, which provides maps and cultural Authority 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 65 Climate change adaptation in Norway

7 Climate-resilient municipalities

ity grid and ICT infrastructure are more heavily The Government used in densely populated areas, and this infra- • Intends to draw up central government plan- structure is therefore more vulnerable to unfore- ning guidelines describing how the municipali- seen incidents. ties and counties should integrate climate The municipalities are Norway’s local adminis- change adaptation into their land-use and gen- trative level, and have the overall responsibility for eral planning processes. The new guidelines social development, planning and provision of ser- on adaptation will be incorporated into the vices within their geographical catchment areas. existing guidelines for climate change mitiga- They provide local welfare services, are involved tion and energy planning. in community development, exercise statutory authority and have important democratic func- Norway’s climate is varied, with considerable dif- tions. Many of these tasks will be affected by cli- ferences between different parts of the country. mate change, and plans and decisions adopted by The industrial structure, settlement patterns and municipalities today will have consequences for infrastructure also vary from place to place and many decades. Climate change will intensify exist- will largely determine the local impacts of climate ing problems and create new ones. On the other change. Thus climate change in a coastal munici- hand, it will also provide opportunities for busi- pality in Western Norway will not take the same ness development and bring advantages to local form as in an inland municipality in Eastern Nor- communities. way. Adaptation will therefore require a different To enable the municipalities to ensure that approach in different geographical areas, and it is Norwegian communities are resilient and sustain- important to base specific measures on local able in the future, adaptation to climate change needs. The local character of the impacts of cli- must be made an integral part of municipal mate change puts the municipalities in the front responsibilities. line in dealing with climate change. Climate change and social change are taking place simultaneously, and social change will 7.1 Climate change as part of the largely determine our vulnerability to climate framework of society change, particularly in towns. A growing propor- tion of the Norwegian population lives in urban The climate has always been an important part of areas, and the growth of Norwegian towns is the framework for Norwegian society. In previous expected to continue. All Norway’s largest towns times communities were more dependent on the are either on the coast or close to lakes or rivers. natural environment than they are now, and the Higher and more intense precipitation will require climate was a key factor behind settlement pat- more efficient stormwater management systems terns and the industrial structure. It is still an in towns, which contain large areas of impermea- important factor in business development and ble surfaces such as roads and pavements. Chal- social development planning. However, the com- lenges will also arise in connection with the devel- mittee responsible for the report Adapting to a opment of port facilities and densification of urban changing climate (NOU 2010: 10) pointed out that areas, both because of sea level rise and because climate considerations are often sacrificed to the growing number of roof surfaces will result in other important priorities, and that this can make larger volumes of local runoff. In addition, much us more vulnerable to climate change. of the urban infrastructure is vulnerable; for Today’s climate already puts us at risk. Flood- example rail and metro tracks can be damaged by ing, landslides, avalanches and other extreme erosion and landslips, and tunnels are particularly weather events are causing disruption of infra- at risk of becoming filled with water. The electric- structure, threatening life and health and entailing 66 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway huge costs. Stormwater runoff in urban areas also lar survey in 2007, and eight out of ten municipali- causes substantial damage every year to buildings ties answered that they expect climate change to and other infrastructure. Climate change could have impacts in their communities. Many of those intensify existing problems and result in a higher that have already taken steps to adapt to climate frequency of natural hazard events that inflict change have done so after being struck by a natu- major damage, even in places where such events ral hazard event. A combination of information, used to be rare. guidance and cooperation with other municipali- Areas that could previously be developed ties has been shown to produce good results. The safely may become unsuitable because they are adaptation efforts made in response to natural exposed to a higher risk of flooding, landslides hazard events and as a result of participation in and avalanches, or rising sea levels. In built-up projects are a positive development. However, in areas the higher risk of climate-related damage the long term climate change may have major could make it necessary to impose requirements impacts beyond those affecting municipalities for preventive measures or altered use. Thus cli- today. In the long run, regular evaluation of adap- mate change could involve major costs in exposed tation measures based on actual events will not be locations and limit the availability of suitable areas enough to ensure secure and sustainable local for development. communities. For the municipalities, which are responsible Furthermore, adaptation efforts compete for for civil protection at the local level, climate attention with many equally important local gov- change will influence the risk profile used as a ernment tasks, and it can be difficult for a munici- basis for community development. It can be a pality to give sufficient priority to adaptation over challenging task to identify how climate change is other necessary activities. likely to alter the risk profile and thus to adjust the The 2011 survey of municipal adaptation preventive aspects of municipal planning appropri- efforts also showed that there are large differ- ately. ences between municipalities, and that many However, climate change may also provide small municipalities are finding it difficult to opportunities for positive development in local address the challenges of climate change. It is an communities. For example, higher precipitation important goal of the national adaptation work to will make it more important to maintain and fur- ensure that climate change does not increase dis- ther develop the green structure that is such a val- parities between municipalities. uable resource in urban areas. In towns especially, where much of the available area has already been allocated, there are a number of examples of inno- 7.2 The municipalities’ responsibility vative stormwater management measures to pre- for climate change adaptation vent damage, such as improving green spaces and reopening natural waterways. Such measures will The municipalities have the overall responsibility also benefit health, recreational activities and the for community development within their geo- environment. graphical catchment areas. They have obligations Water, sea and land temperatures are rising as and exercise authority under various acts of legis- a result of climate change. Higher temperatures lation, and their responsibility for planning is reg- are leading to environmental changes that will ulated by the Planning and Building Act. gradually alter the framework for business devel- The future consequences of climate change opment, especially in tourism and the primary for the municipalities will be partly determined by industries. While this could open up new opportu- decisions taken today, for example on land use nities for local development, it could also pose and the development of municipal infrastructure. problems for existing business activities. Changes The Government will therefore require municipal- in the natural environment will create new condi- ities to use relevant knowledge about current and tions for sports and outdoor recreation. For exam- future climate change as a basis for their planning ple, in areas that are now on the outskirts of activities and exercise of authority. This will be regions with stable winter weather conditions, necessary for example in their application of legis- higher temperatures will gradually limit opportu- lation relating to civil protection and nature man- nities for winter activities. agement, where they have vital tasks. The local In 2011 a survey was made of climate change authorities must also take climate change into adaptation work in Norwegian counties and account when applying the rules on the construc- municipalities was made, as a follow-up to a simi- tion of housing, roads and other infrastructure. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 67 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 7.1 Climate change adaptation and water supplies Providing water supplies is a municipal respon- by extending restricted areas or imposing other sibility, and the authorities have several ways of restrictions around water sources. preventing a reduction in the quality of drinking The municipal authorities can also take steps water as a result of climate change. Measures to improve their emergency preparedness plans for preventing disruption of the drinking water for the water supply system in order to prevent supply resulting from extreme events or other or contain acute changes in water quality. These impacts of climate change can be included in could include for example establishing an addi- municipal emergency preparedness plans. Own- tional hygienic barrier at water works with flood- ers of water works can assess the probable prone groundwater sources. Installing flood impacts of extreme weather events such as defences for the technical infrastructure and intense precipitation and flooding, and identify strengthening existing barriers, for example by ways of reducing pollution of water sources or increasing the UV sterilisation capacity at water improving water treatment. The location of works equipped with this technology, are other potential sources of pollution, such as landfills, possibilities. The extra safety measures can be industrial plants, contaminated soil and livestock activated in the event of a risk that floodwater for food production, can affect raw water quality. will contaminate raw water sources. On the other hand, intact wetlands, peatlands Establishing reserve water sources that are and ecotones play a part in water purification. not flood prone or systems for manual distribu- The authorities can also identify stretches of tion of drinking water may be appropriate in pipeline where there is a higher risk of waste cases where the drinking water source is par- water seeping into the drinking water supply or ticularly vulnerable to contamination and it is that are vulnerable to flooding. Another meas- not possible or financially viable to protect the ure would be to prevent discharges of chemical main source of drinking water. and biological pollutants into the water source

Climate change will also affect a number of other The counties draw up regional planning strate- municipal services, such as provision of drinking gies that are used in deciding which regional plan- water and waste water and waste management. ning issues should be addressed by a newly Climate change considerations are particularly elected county or municipal council. The Govern- important in long-term planning for the develop- ment considers that climate change adaptation ment of municipal services and associated infra- must be a key premise for this work. structure. The municipal master plan is more concrete, The Government wishes counties and munici- and the municipalities need to decide how the palities to take account of climate change and of impacts of climate change in their particular the vulnerability of society and the environment in municipality should be addressed in the social, their planning activities under the Planning and land-use and implementation elements of the mas- Building Act and in other areas where they exer- ter plan. The social element addresses long-term cise authority. All municipalities should consider challenges, goals and strategies for development how they will be affected by climate change and of the community as a whole, including strategies draw up measures to make themselves more resil- for social development, sectoral activities and ient and thereby avoid future costs and a higher long-term land-use needs. It should be focused risk of loss of life. and action-oriented, and identify priority areas All municipal planning is based on the munici- that need to be addressed. The assignment of pri- pal planning strategy. When drafting its planning orities will largely depend on a vulnerability strategy, which is done at least once during each assessment for the various areas. The assessment electoral term, it is very important that the munic- should cover environmental status, water quality, ipality gives prominence to the impacts of climate nature management, buildings, transport, health change. This also applies to any planning pro- and pollution. The vulnerability assessment and gramme drawn up when the municipal master priorities in the social element of the master plan plan is revised. are important, since the social element serves as 68 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 7.2 Information about climate change useful in many areas General information about the most important – Design wind loads (improved monitoring and trends in climate change is sufficient in many modelling of extreme wind conditions). cases. However, in some areas, like the follow- – Icing on terrestrial and maritime infrastru- ing, there is a need for more detailed knowledge cture. about present and future climatic conditions: – Mapping of various types of landslides and – Design of urban waste water treatment sys- avalanches and assessing how climate tems (up-to-date data on short-term precipita- change will affect them. tion under current climatic conditions in – Agriculture and forestry, reindeer hus- order to calculate intensity-duration-frequ- bandry. ency (IDF) curves and future IDF estimates). – Fisheries, including aquaculture. – Flood protection near rivers and lakes and for – Ecology and biodiversity (new species, new urban areas (up-to-date flood frequency ana- plant diseases). lyses under current conditions and estimates of future changes). The authorities intend to develop a national cen- – Design of roads and railways, including tre for climate services, which will provide infor- safety systems. mation on the climate of the future in user- – Design of coastal infrastructure that is affec- friendly form, see Chapter 5.2. ted by sea level, waves and storm surges.

the basis for the municipal sector plans and activi- planning processes and decision-making in differ- ties. ent sectors. The social element of the master plan is con- The central government planning guidelines cerned with community development; it describes will be designed to assist coordination across sec- the needs of the community and provides land-use tors and administrative levels. They will make it guidelines. A land-use plan for the entire munici- easier for counties and municipalities to include pality is also required, linking land use with future climate change adaptation in their planning under social development. In many municipalities, the the Planning and Building Act and take it into land-use guidelines will be strongly influenced by account in the exercise of their authority and the the need for adaptation in various areas. Thus by fulfilment of their obligations. including adaptation measures in their land-use To enable the counties and municipalities to planning, municipalities will be able to reduce the ensure that Norwegian communities are resilient scale of the damage done by climate change. in the future, adaptation to climate change must The implementation element of the master be made an integral part of their responsibilities. plan contains an action programme based on the Climate change adaptation, which is a long-term, adaptation needs identified in the social and land- cross-cutting issue, needs to be integrated into the use elements, and is coordinated with the finance municipalities’ existing tasks. The purpose of the plan that is required by the master plan. The guidelines is to encourage municipalities to use implementation element and the finance plan are their long-term planning activities, particularly the most important tools available to the munici- their land-use planning, to reduce vulnerability to palities for ensuring efficient implementation and climate change. They will also provide informa- sound economic management. tion and guidance on where and how the local authorities can obtain adequate knowledge about the impacts of climate change and which knowl- 7.3 Central government planning edge is most applicable to their particular region. guidelines for climate change The new guidelines will also set out national adaptation goals and expectations, together with clear guide- lines, concerning municipal planning of climate The Government intends to draw up central gov- change adaptation. They will apply both to overall ernment planning guidelines describing how cli- regional and municipal planning strategies and to mate change adaptation should be addressed in more specific municipal planning, in other words 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 69 Climate change adaptation in Norway to the social, land-use and implementation ele- site www.klimatilpasning.no to coordinate this ments of the municipal master plan. type of information and make it easily accessible A key part of the central government guide- for regional and municipal authorities. The web- lines will be to specify the considerations and site, which is managed by the Norwegian Climate assessments that must be taken into account in Adaptation Programme, is also intended as a tool order to ensure that the impacts of climate change for municipalities and others who find it difficult are given sufficient priority in planning and other to start on adaptation work, and contains a set of municipal activities and in the exercise of their practical guidelines. These include background authority. information, tools and advice on how to include The local government authorities must also climate change considerations in planning pro- take into account the fact that the impacts will dif- cesses. The website has so far been a success, but fer from one part of the country to another. if it is to continue to be relevant and serve as a key In addition, the central government guidelines knowledge base and communication channel, it will provide a more detailed overview of the meas- will require regular maintenance, development ures that should be evaluated and implemented in and updating. Priority will be given to maintaining the long-term social element of the municipal mas- the role of klimatilpasning.no as a knowledge plat- ter plan, in the land-use element and in zoning form for adaptation efforts in Norway. plans. Specific, action-oriented guidelines will be In order to be of practical use in planning, given for various sectors: for drawing up risk and knowledge about climate change adaptation must vulnerability assessments, incorporating environ- be further developed through collaboration mental considerations and identifying how the between municipalities and resource centres that natural environment can be used to prevent dam- can interpret climate modelling and projections to age, and for building technology, road construc- provide locally adapted information. tion and so on. Studies can form a sound basis for adaptation The central government guidelines will pro- efforts, but the practical measures must be devel- vide general, overall directions, and will also be oped by the municipalities themselves. Networks more specific and detailed in certain areas. They and regional cooperation have been shown to be will be incorporated into the existing central gov- effective learning tools for strengthening the ernment guidelines for climate change mitigation adaptive capacity of municipalities and enabling and energy planning by counties and municipali- them to exchange experience. This is important in ties. They are also intended to serve as a basis for an area like climate change adaptation, which is individual decisions made by central government, new to many people and where experience is lim- regional and municipal bodies under the Planning ited. Networked learning is also very effective. and Building Act and other legislation. Cooperation with central government agencies, suppliers of climate projections and other knowl- edge centres can save municipalities time and 7.4 Information, cooperation and money. For example, the cooperation within river advice basin districts under the Water Management Reg- ulations is an important arena for intermunicipal Regardless of how the municipalities organise collaboration and knowledge-building and also rel- their adaptation efforts, knowledge of the local evant to adaptation measures to maintain or impacts of climate change will be essential. For improve the environmental status of inland and example, without information about sea level rise, coastal waters. precipitation trends and the resulting changes in Several types of networks for cooperation and the risks associated with flooding, landslides and sharing experience have been set up. While Cities avalanches, local authorities will not know which of the Future involves the largest towns and their changes they need to adapt to. Priority will be adjacent municipalities, regardless of geographi- given to improving dissemination of information cal location, the networked learning for which the on climate change to the counties and municipali- counties and county governors are responsible is ties. linked to specific geographical regions. Both mod- Today there is a great deal of information avail- els have their strengths. Cities of the Future pro- able from studies and the central government vides a forum for exchange of experience between administration on climate change and the practi- urban areas on specifically urban problems, such cal results of various adaptation efforts. In 2009 as stormwater. The county networks link the the Ministry of the Environment set up the web- municipalities within each regional administrative 70 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 7.3 Cities of the Future Cities of the Future is an example of an ongoing Regional Authorities and the business sector. cooperation focusing on climate change adapta- The practical cooperation takes the form of a tion. In 2008, Norway’s 13 largest cities and network. Adaptation to climate change is also an urban areas were invited by the Ministry of the important element of the cooperation. The focus Environment to join together to reduce green- area is adaptation to climate change. house gas emissions and create cities that will So far 10 of the cities have included specific be better places to live. In addition to the cities objectives or strategies relating to adaptation in and the Ministry of the Environment, which the social element of their municipal master heads the cooperation, three other ministries plans and 10 have included provisions concern- are involved: the Ministry of Local Government ing climate change adaptation in the land-use and Regional Development, the Ministry of element. All 13 have developed action pro- Petroleum and Energy and the Ministry of grammes that will play a part in climate change Transport and Communications, together with adaptation. the Norwegian Association of Local and

Figure 7.1 Cities of the Future Source: Gjennomgang av klimatilpasning i kommunale planer – kommuner i Framtidens byer (Review of climate change adapta- tion in municipal plans – municipalities in Cities of the Future, in Norwegian). Report drawn up by Rambøll Norge for the Dire- ctorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning, January 2012.

structure, which enables county authorities, for economic, environmental, social and cultural county governors and key state agencies with a development within each county and to provide regional presence, such as the Norwegian Public guidance and assistance on planning to the munic- Roads Administration and the Norwegian Water ipalities. In their planning guidance for the munic- Resources and Energy Directorate, to provide ipalities, the county authorities include input on clear and coordinated guidance to the municipali- regional interests in the planning area and guid- ties. This form of cooperation also promotes inter- ance on processes and requirements regarding municipal collaboration on joint vulnerability planning documents. This means that the county assessments and regional challenges. The Gov- authorities have an important advisory role as ernment considers that intermunicipal coopera- regards municipal climate-related work in land- tion will be an effective means of implementing use planning. central government guidelines on adaptation. The county governors’ offices are responsible Regional networks and the provision of guid- for ensuring that national policies are imple- ance and advice to the municipalities should be mented locally and coordinate central govern- considered together. The county authorities and ment policy signals to the municipalities. Under county governors have a number of tasks and the Planning and Building Act, they also provide functions at the regional level that are relevant to advice and guidance on following up government municipal adaptation efforts. guidelines and act as appeal and supervisory bod- The counties are the regional planning author- ies. They coordinate civil protection and emer- ities, with overall responsibility for regional plan- gency planning at the regional and municipal lev- ning strategies, regional master plans and els, and are responsible for county-level risk and regional planning provisions. Their planning activ- vulnerability assessments. They have also been ities are intended to implement political objectives made responsible for maintaining an overview 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 71 Climate change adaptation in Norway and providing guidance to the municipalities on guidelines on climate change adaptation, and for climate change adaptation within their spheres of providing guidance to the municipalities. The responsibility. Under the Planning and Building county governors’ offices cooperate with the Act, the county governors will be responsible for county authorities in these tasks. ensuring compliance with the central government 72 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

8 Climate change adaptation in different sectors

There is nothing new about the idea of taking far the different sectors have progressed in their weather and climatic conditions into account in work on climate change adaptation. Some actors planning processes. However, climate change will are already carrying out practical work, whereas make it more challenging to deal with the climate- others have barely started. The main focus is on related problems Norway already faces, and there reviews and surveys, and most of the work has will be new challenges to deal with in addition. been organised in the form of projects. Plans will have to be adjusted to take account of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events and gradual changes in the natural environ- 8.1 Nature management ment. Planning for a different climate means that current planning processes have to address both Climate change has impacts on both species com- today’s climate and the projected future climate. position and biomass production in ecosystems, It is particularly important to take climate and will have positive effects on some species and change adaptation into account in all investments adverse effects on others. This section discusses with a long time horizon, regardless of sector. how nature management in Norway can be However, some sectors will be more strongly adapted to climate change. affected by climate change than others. Several of The report Adapting to a changing climate these, such as the electricity supply and transport (NOU 2010: 10) points out that nature’s capacity sectors, have already started to address climate to adapt to rapid climate change is limited, but change adaptation through surveys, analyses and that there are ways of strengthening the adaptive policy development in their own fields. It is impor- capacity of ecosystems and species. High species tant to ensure that this work is systematically diversity and wide genetic diversity combined incorporated into planning and decision-making with many different habitats and niches make eco- processes in the different sectors. systems resilient, in other words capable of with- In recent years, sectoral authorities have standing and adapting to environmental change. begun reviewing the situation and implementing High biodiversity and resilience is therefore the first steps towards climate change adaptation. important for adaptation to climate change. One The Directorate for Nature Management and the example is the importance of a wide variety of pol- Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo- linators for some types of plant production. rate have for example both carried out reviews Healthy ecosystems can also reduce the impacts and presented action plans and strategies for cli- of climate change on human society. For example, mate change adaptation. In 2010, the Norwegian forests can prevent landslides and erosion, and Public Roads Administration completed a three- riparian vegetation can reduce inundation during year review of the impacts of climate change on smaller flooding events. Thus, the natural environ- transport infrastructure. The Norwegian Building ment can fulfil an important function in adaptation Authority has also carried out major research pro- of human society to climate change. jects and studies relating to the construction sec- Much of the nature management work being tor in cooperation with SINTEF Building and done today consists of important measures to Infrastructure. In 2009, the Government pre- ensure that biodiversity is resilient, which can sented a white paper on climate change and the also be classified as climate change adaptation. agriculture and forestry sectors, which discussed The overall goal of climate change adaptation in both mitigation and adaptation (Report No. 39 the field of nature management is to maintain the (2008–2009) to the Storting, Klimautfordringene – adaptive capacity of natural systems. This goal landbruket en del av løsningen (Climate challenges must be achieved by finding a balance between – agriculture part of the solution. Summary in conservation and sustainable use, and must be English). There is considerable variation in how incorporated into the management of species and 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 73 Climate change adaptation in Norway habitat types that may be exposed to climate results for society as a whole (section 12). There change, for example by designating priority spe- are similar provisions on the management of cies and selected habitats under the Nature Diver- marine species in section 7 of the Marine sity Act. It is also important to maintain the range Resources Act. At the same time, section 14 of the of ecosystem services provided by habitats such Nature Diversity Act requires measures under the as wetlands, forest and river systems. As part of Act to be weighed against other important public the work of following up decisions under the Con- interests. vention on Biological Diversity, Norway is seek- The capacity of the natural environment to ing to reduce the negative impacts of climate withstand extreme weather and to moderate the change on biodiversity through conservation and negative impacts of climate change are important sustainable use strategies that maintain biodiver- ecosystem services. Research shows that includ- sity.1 This work involves finding good ways of inte- ing more aspects of the value of biodiversity in grating climate change considerations into nature planning and management of the natural environ- management. ment in order to enhance ecosystem services can Activities in many different sectors and admin- bring major benefits. At national level, Norway istrative areas have impacts on the natural envi- needs more knowledge and a better overview of ronment. This makes it essential to take an inte- ecosystem services and their importance for eco- grated approach to environmental management nomic development and human well-being, and and to consider climate change in conjunction also the possible impacts of the loss and degrada- with other environmental pressures. The report tion of ecosystems. Norway’s follow up of the Eco- Adapting to a changing climate highlights the nomics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) importance of ecosystem-based management for study will be able to provide a valuable contribu- strengthening the adaptive capacity of the natural tion here. The Government has appointed a com- environment, and this is also emphasised in deci- mittee to review the values associated with biodi- sions under the Convention on Biological Diver- versity and ecosystem services in Norway so that sity. The same approach is being used in Norway we are in a better able to integrate this knowledge as a basis in adaptation efforts in nature manage- into decision-making processes. The committee ment, in the form of a good balance between con- has been asked to focus particularly on ecosystem servation and sustainable use. services that will be important in dealing with cli- The Nature Diversity Act sets out principles mate change. for sustainable use, and is an important tool for The Conference of the Parties under the Con- promoting ecosystem-based management. The vention on Biological Diversity in Nagoya, Japan, authorities must use these principles as a basis in 2010 adopted the Aichi targets, 20 targets for when evaluating and designing measures and new the conservation of biodiversity and maintenance policy instruments. One of the fundamental of ecosystem services. According to these, the requirements of the Act is that all decisions must, countries that are parties to the Convention are to as far as is reasonable, be based on scientific update their national biodiversity action plans by knowledge of the population status of species, the 2015, in line with the new targets. Norway is pre- range and ecological status of habitat types, and paring a national action plan for biodiversity that the impacts of environmental pressures (section will meet its obligations. Climate change consider- 8). Any pressure on an ecosystem must be ations and the capacity of ecosystems to help soci- assessed on the basis of the cumulative environ- ety adapt to change will be integrated into the mental effects on the ecosystem now or in the action plan. future (section 10). In the absence of adequate information on biological, geological or landscape diversity or cumulative environmental effects on Conservation and climate change adaptation the ecosystem, the aim must be to avoid possible Substantial work has been done over many years significant damage, in accordance with the pre- to implement Norway’s nationwide national park cautionary principle (section 9). The costs of plan and various thematic conservation plans. avoiding environmental degradation must be This work is now nearing completion, and large borne by the project owner (the user-pays princi- areas, particularly in the mountains, have been ple, section 11), and methods, techniques and sit- safeguarded. However, some lowland habitat ing of activities must be chosen to give the best types still have little statutory protection, and many protected areas are small. Climate change 1 Convention on Biological Diversity, COP10, Decision X/33 may increase the vulnerability of such areas to cli- 74 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway mate-related factors such as strong winds and provisions will be further elaborated in two sets of intense precipitation. Steps are already being regulations. The regulations relating to the plant- taken to integrate climate change considerations ing or sowing of foreign tree species for forestry into the management of protected areas, for exam- purposes enter into force on 1 July 2012, and ple by increasing the size of protected areas and require anyone who wishes to plant or sow foreign adjusting their boundaries. The connectivity of tree species to obtain a permit. Applications are terrestrial habitats is important, since it enables processed by the county governors. Regulations animals and plants to move to other, more suitable relating to the import and release of alien organ- areas over time if ecological conditions change as isms are being drawn up. Risk factors are the climate changes. This intensifies the need for expected to change as a result of climate change, good land-use and general planning, so that net- and these regulations may help to protect Nor- works of natural habitat can be maintained and way’s native biodiversity by preventing the intro- allow species to move when necessary. Areas that duction and spread of invasive alien organisms. A stretch from sea level to the mountains or through similar provision prohibiting the release of alien several vegetation zones can be particularly organisms is set out in section 7 of the Marine important in this connection.2, 3 Resources Act. Cooperation between sectors will In the vicinity of urban areas, the Government play a key role in action against invasive alien will make active use of land-use planning under organisms that become established and spread the Planning and Building Act and the Nature more rapidly as a result of climate change. The Diversity Act to safeguard areas of natural envi- Government’s Strategy on Invasive Alien Species ronment that moderate the impacts of flooding contains a programme of measures to prevent the and extreme weather events on housing and other spread and establishment of invasive alien spe- infrastructure. Establishing protected areas can cies, which includes both measures to be taken by also be an appropriate tool to use in this work. the individual sectors and joint measures on which they are to cooperate. The strategy was drawn up in cooperation between ten different Invasive alien organisms and climate change ministries. adaptation To ensure good control of the spread of inva- Alien organisms are species, subspecies or popu- sive alien organisms, it will be important to ensure lations that have been introduced outside their that the new legislation is properly enforced and natural past or present distribution by human applied, and to develop early warning and rapid agency (populations established in Norway before response systems for new invasive alien organ- 1800 are considered to be indigenous). Some of isms. Many counties have already established or them are invasive, meaning that they displace are implementing action plans for dealing with native species and disturb local ecosystems. Cli- alien organisms. This work must be continued, mate change is expected to make it easier for alien since it is part of Norway’s efforts to meet its organisms to become established in Norway and international commitments to introduce measures some of them may pose a threat to native biodiver- to eradicate, contain and control invasive alien sity. The Norwegian Biodiversity Information organisms. Policy instruments for eradication, Centre’s report Alien species in Norway – with the containment and control, information work and Norwegian Black List 2012 includes ecological mapping of alien organisms must also be coordi- risk assessments of species that do not occur nat- nated between sectors. urally in Norway. These provide an important basis for eradicating, containing and controlling invasive alien organisms in Norway. Climate change adaptation and outdoor recreation Chapter IV of the Nature Diversity Act deals Making sure that everyone has the opportunity to with the import and release of alien organisms. Its take part in outdoor recreation on an everyday basis is an important objective of the Govern- ment’s efforts to promote active outdoor recrea- 2 Framstad et. al. Naturfaglig evaluering av norske verneom- råder. Verneområdenes funksjon som økologisk nettverk tion in Norway. The Government is drawing up a og toleranse for klimaendringer (Assessment of Norwe- national action plan for state involvement in the gian conservation areas. Their functions as ecological provision of outdoor recreation areas and on networks and tolerance to climate change. Summary in English) NINA report 888, 2012 arrangements for public access, which is to be 3 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007 – completed in summer 2013. Its overall objective is Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Chapter 4.6 to identify which areas should be set aside for out- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 75 Climate change adaptation in Norway door recreation and what arrangements are including montane forest, and will incorporate cli- needed for access, for example low-impact facili- mate change considerations into planning pro- ties that make access easy for as many people as cesses. The Government will consider whether possible. The action plan will focus particularly on current policy instruments are sufficient to the need to set aside areas and make arrange- ensure integrated land-use planning incorporating ments for public access near urban areas. It will climate change considerations in mountain areas. also discuss the need for adaptation to the chang- The need for new national guidelines for planning ing climate. More public information may have to and designing holiday housing in the mountains be provided, such as more information about the will be considered. One of the objectives of the rules on open fires as the risk of forest fire regional plans for Norway’s national conservation increases, and more information on sheep ticks as areas for wild reindeer is to safeguard continuous their distribution area expands. areas of wild reindeer habitat. These plans are to be completed by the end of 2012, and their imple- mentation through decisions at county and munic- Climate change adaptation in different ecosystems ipal level will play a key role in ensuring continu- Many of the current policy instruments for man- ous areas of wild reindeer habitat in the future. agement of mountain areas were not primarily Climate change may also alter food availability established with climate change adaptation in for many species, including mountain and forest mind, but may nevertheless be important in safe- game species. Populations must be regulated in a guarding species and habitats in a changing cli- way that takes other pressures and climate mate. About 75 % of the total area of Norway’s change into account. As one element of a sustaina- national parks is in the mountains, and the corre- ble wildlife management regime, it may be appro- sponding figures for protected landscapes and priate to consider adjustments of quotas and open nature reserves are 71 % and 22 % respectively. seasons for game species to ensure that the vul- When the national park plan has been completed, nerability of different species to climate change is about 27 % of Norway’s mountain areas will be taken into account. protected under the Nature Diversity Act. Forest covers about 130 000 square kilometres Montane forest is the term used to describe or about 34 % of mainland Norway. About 50 % of forest growing so high up that the trees clearly the most seriously threatened species in Norway show the effects of the harsh climate. In general, (1838 species) are associated with forest. Condi- Norway’s montane forests are less influenced by tions for many of these have improved with forestry operations and have a higher proportion increasing environmental awareness in the for- of old-growth forest than those in lowland areas. estry industry. Forests are also very important as Many threatened species are associated with old- an economic resource and for outdoor recreation growth forest, and montane forests are therefore and enjoyment of the outdoors – the local outdoor important for their survival. Climate change may areas most used by many Norwegians are in for- allow forest to become established in areas that est. Forests provide other important ecosystem are currently above the treeline. This could have services too – they store carbon, are a source of positive effects on forest species, but will reduce renewable energy and building materials, and available areas of habitat for alpine species, creat- help to control landslides and avalanches, flood- ing future conservation challenges. On the other ing, runoff and erosion. For example, a buffer hand, montane forests in many areas are under zone of riparian forest plays an important part in severe pressure because of holiday cabin develop- stabilising river banks. ments, and species that live in these habitats may The way forests are managed strongly influ- therefore be particularly vulnerable to further ences their productivity, the species composition pressure such as climate change. and age distribution of trees, forest health, species Climate change is one of the greatest threats diversity and the capacity of forests to deliver eco- to wild reindeer and other species that are system services. Climate change intensifies the adapted to alpine habitats. To help these species need for adaptation in the forestry industry, to survive, it is therefore important to reduce including the development of seeds and plant other negative factors such as habitat loss and material that are better adapted to the climate. Cli- fragmentation. To safeguard vulnerable habitats mate change will also make it more important to and threatened species in the mountains, the Gov- continue current practices such as ensuring that ernment will focus on strengthening an integrated forestry roads follow appropriate routes and tak- land-use planning regime for mountain areas, 76 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ing other steps to prevent erosion, particularly in habitat types and eight priority species have been steep terrain and flood-prone areas. designated, several of which are associated with Forestry conservation areas that cover several the cultural landscape. Various arrangements, vegetation zones can enable some species to including the scheme for specific environmental spread more readily, and thus facilitate climate measures in agriculture and the regional environ- change adaptation in forest habitats. In privately- mental programmes, include grant schemes for owned areas, forest conservation is largely volun- management and restoration of habitats such as tary, involving cooperation between landowners wetlands, hay meadows and coastal heaths, and and the environmental authorities. In addition, for ditching and drainage of cultivated land. There publicly owned areas of forests are protected. It is are regional water management plans that provide essential to ensure that areas of the highest con- a basis for targeted measures to reduce runoff servation value are protected. and nutrient loss from agriculture along rivers and Responsibility for forest management in Nor- lakes. These help to improve the ecological status way is shared: the Ministry of the Environment is of rivers and lakes, in accordance with the EU responsible for biodiversity and outdoor recrea- Water Framework Directive. tion interests, and can make use of the Nature The Government considers the instruments Diversity Act, the Planning and Building Act, the used by the agricultural sector for conservation of Oslo Forest and Countryside Act and funding for the agricultural landscape and associated species protection of forest areas on a voluntary basis. and ecosystems to be important in addressing cli- The Norwegian Agricultural Authority adminis- mate change. They improve management of the ters the Forestry Act, the Natural Hazards Act and agricultural landscape and make vulnerable habi- various regulations and grant schemes for the tat types more resilient to climate change. Climate Ministry of Agriculture and Food. Forums for change may also make it necessary to make cooperation between the agricultural and environ- adjustments to ensuretargeted and efficient use of mental authorities have been established. This agricultural policy instruments. It is also essential cooperation is also intended to facilitate climate to ensure close coordination of the use of policy change adaptation in the forest sector. instruments by the agricultural and environmen- Climate change may result in changes in spe- tal authorities. cies and habitat diversity in the cultural landscape. About 10 % of mainland Norway is covered by For example, with higher temperatures and a wetlands, mostly peatland – bogs or mires. Many longer growing season, scrub and woodland will of these areas can play a part in flood control, encroach more quickly on open landscapes unless groundwater recharge and moderating water steps are taken to counteract this. Various flow4. However, the capacity of wetlands to retain arrangements and grant schemes have been water varies greatly, and depends on hydrological established for the maintenance of cultural land- processes. Floodplains and riparian ecosystems scapes. Many of these form part of the national are generally recognised as one of the most and regional environmental programmes under important defences against flood damage and ero- the Agricultural Agreement, which have total sion of riverbanks. This means that safeguarding almost NOK 5 billion per year. The national envi- and restoring such wetlands can be a win-win ronmental programme includes general support solution, which reduces vulnerability to climate for maintaining agricultural areas and cultural change, enhances carbon storage and maintains landscapes, while the regional environmental pro- habitats for many different species. grammes contain more specific measures to safe- The fact that the ecosystem services wetlands guard cultural landscapes, the cultural heritage provide are public goods that benefit society as a and biodiversity, and also pollution- and climate- whole, whereas the value for those responsible for related measures. The environmental authorities managing a specific area is not as obvious, creates are cooperating with the agricultural sector to major challenges in wetland management. Many ensure that economic and other types of instru- wetlands have been severely degraded by pro- ments counteract negative effects such as over- cesses such as straightening and channelling growing of open landscapes. stretches of river, culverting, road-building along- The Nature Diversity Act provides the legal side rivers, and more recently also the spread of authority to designate priority species and selected habitat types, which makes it possible to 4 Rusch, G. M. (2012): Climate and ecosystem services. The adopt regulations to safeguard species and habi- potential of Norwegian ecosystems for climate mitigation tats that are at particular risk. So far, five selected and adaptation. – NINA Report 791. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 77 Climate change adaptation in Norway alien species. Sound knowledge and information Watercourse Regulation Act, the Aquaculture Act, about the importance of ecosystem services from the Planning and Building Act and the Nature wetlands is therefore needed, so that drainage and Diversity Act. Economic instruments are also development of peatlands and other wetlands can important, including grants from the agricultural be avoided through integrated land-use planning. authorities that encourage the implementation of Some wetlands have been protected, but there measures to reduce runoff, for example establish- are several types that are not included or are ing buffer zones, grassed waterways and hydro- under-represented in Norway’s system of pro- technical installations. tected areas. Particularly in highly productive low- Under the Common Implementation Strategy land areas, wetlands are under severe and grow- for the Water Framework Directive, a guidance ing pressure from development projects for hous- document has been drawn up on river basin man- ing, industry and infrastructure. Many wetlands agement in a changing climate. Climate change have also been drained, have become overgrown adaptation is an important consideration in devel- or have changed in other ways, reducing their oping both monitoring programmes and pro- capacity to buffer flooding or drought resulting grammes of measures as part of these plans. from climate change. To reduce the vulnerability of freshwater spe- A survey has shown that about 350 of Nor- cies to climate change, the Government will seek way’s wetlands need restoration to maintain their to ensure that populations are as resilient as possi- conservation value. A national plan for the restora- ble by regulating harvesting and other removal, tion of priority wetlands is being drawn up. The carrying out stock enhancement measures where purpose is to improve conditions for threatened appropriate, maintaining areas with specific eco- species, safeguard threatened habitat types and logical functions, removing barriers to migration enhance ecosystem services. Efforts to restore created by physical disturbance or alteration, and and maintain wetlands so that they can continue to taking steps to prevent new developments from deliver ecosystem services will be continued. creating such barriers. Cross-sectoral cooperation Freshwater habitats and species may be is also need to ensure stable flow and good water affected by more frequent and larger changes in quality even if precipitation patterns change. water flow, temperature changes and an increase The overall framework for management of in runoff and accompanying pollution as a result Norwegian sea areas has been laid down in the of climate change. The integrated, cross-sectoral integrated management plans for these areas, system of water resource planning under the while the Water Management Regulations and the Water Management Regulations makes an impor- Planning and Building Act are important for inte- tant contribution towards ecosystem-based man- grated management of the coastal zone. An impor- agement of freshwater. This system applies to all tant element of both systems is a monitoring pro- of Norway’s groundwater, freshwater bodies and gramme for selected indicators to give an over- coastal waters to one nautical mile outside the view of status and trends for ecosystems. The baseline. The overall objective is for all water bod- Marine Resources Act provides the legal basis for ies to achieve good ecological and chemical sta- management of Norway’s living marine tus. resources. The countries around the Northeast Norway has been divided into eleven national Atlantic have extensive monitoring programmes river basin districts and five5 river basin districts for ecosystems and fish stocks. The International that are shared with Finland and Sweden. These Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) uses divisions are based on the natural boundaries of the monitoring results in drawing up its advice on river basins and are independent of county and fish stocks, which is a key part of the basis for municipal boundaries. Management plans are resource management. Quota recommendations being drawn up for each region in accordance from ICES are based on updated information on with the requirements of the Water Management stocks, ecosystems and climatic and environmen- Regulations. They include both monitoring pro- tal factors, and decisions on quotas for stocks that grammes and programmes of measures to are harvested are based on this advice. This sys- achieve the environmental objectives. Measures tem is essential for ensuring that harvesting levels have to be implemented under legislation adminis- are in accordance with the goal of maintaining tered by various authorities, particularly the Pollu- resilient marine ecosystems. Scientists consider tion Control Act, the Water Resources Act, the that most Norwegian stocks are being harvested within safe ecological limits. 5 Corrected from six in the original Norwegian text. 78 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

New challenges will arise as regards the man- agement of previously ice-covered areas that Box 8.1 Restoration and climate become ice-free as a result of climate change. This change adaptation is further discussed in Chapter 9 on the Arctic. A number of Norway’s river systems have been physically altered, for example by chan- nelling for timber rafting, in connection with Further development of the knowledge base construction of buildings or other infrastruc- The impacts of climate change on the natural envi- ture, or to build flood defences. One example ronment are increasing the need for knowledge- is the river Enningdalselva, which runs from building and close monitoring of changes. lake Bullaren in Sweden to the sea in Research on adaptation and vulnerability and sys- 1 Iddefjorden near Halden in Østfold . The river tematic collection of data through mapping and bed was cleared and the river channelled over monitoring of environmental change are crucial a long period, which had negative impacts on for our ability to establish sound, effective adapta- aquatic organisms. Retaining walls were built tion measures. The knowledge base for climate along sections of river bank and vegetation change adaptation in nature management needs and eddies and backwaters removed, with the to be further developed through research, map- loss of breeding sites and shelter for species ping and monitoring. The municipalities, the busi- such as freshwater pearl mussel and salmon. ness sector and other relevant actors also need A large-scale restoration project has been initi- better advice and information on the important ated and a joint management plan drawn up to role nature plays in making human societies resil- improve the situation. In addition to providing ient to climate change. better ecological conditions for a number of Over the years, a large volume of data on both species, the restoration project will also mean terrestrial and marine ecosystems has been col- that sand and gravel deposits near the river lected through mapping and monitoring pro- can function as retention basins and control grammes. In recent years, some monitoring pro- flooding in the river. With good planning and grammes have been modified to incorporate the close cooperation, such solutions generally impacts of climate change. If this information is to result in win-win situations. be used, it is essential for all decision makers to have access to good data. Several systems have 1 Part of one of the river basin districts shared between Norway and Sweden. therefore been developed to provide access to data from mapping and monitoring programmes. These include the database «Naturbase» run by the Directorate for Nature Management, and the Species Map Service run by the Norwegian Biodi- It is becoming increasingly important to adapt versity Information Centre. A map-based web the marine management regime to ensure that the application called Vann-Nett provides data on eco- cumulative environmental effects of rising sea logical status and trends in water bodies, and the temperature, ocean acidification and human activ- MAREANO programme is mapping the seabed in ity do not cause any degradation of ecosystem ser- Norwegian waters and making the data available. vices from the marine environment. This is essen- The website www.miljostatus.no publishes the tial to the maintenance of resilient ecosystems. results of environmental monitoring programmes, Cumulative environmental effects on marine eco- and the new portal www.barentswatch.no will pro- systems are taken into account in the manage- vide access to data from a range of bodies and ment plans for Norway’s sea areas. In the updated institutions involved in monitoring of Norwegian management plan for the Barents Sea–Lofoten sea areas. area (Meld. St. 10 (2010–2011)), the Government Monitoring of changes in the status and distri- emphasised the need to build up knowledge about bution of species that are vulnerable to climate ocean acidification and climate change, for change, such as Arctic and alpine species, will be instance by putting in place a long-term pro- continued. Knowledge about alien species, includ- gramme with adequate coverage to monitor ing their environmental impacts, pathways of changes in ocean acidity and the impacts of these introduction and the effects of climate change, changes. This is needed both to gain an overview needs to be improved through mapping, monitor- of the scale of the problem and to provide projec- ing and research. The rising volume of shipping in tions of future trends. northern waters and the potentially higher risk 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 79 Climate change adaptation in Norway that new alien species will be introduced will therefore important to continue the current moni- intensify the need for knowledge. It will also be toring programmes for marine ecosystems. important to follow up the new Norwegian Black List from 2012 and establish a good overview of measures already in use to eradicate, contain and 8.2 Agriculture and forestry control the most invasive alien species and iden- tify where action needs to be taken. The agricultural and forestry sector in Norway The Norwegian Nature Index measures the includes a wide range of activities, including rein- status and trends of biodiversity in nine major eco- deer husbandry and other activities based on systems in Norway, and the first edition was pub- farming and forestry resources. Adaptation of lished in 2010. It is based on monitoring data and these activities to climate change is essential to expert assessments. The first edition was only the prevent or limit damage both from extreme beginning of a long-term process of following weather events and from more gradual processes environmental change to provide a constantly of change, and at the same time ensure that poten- improving basis for deciding on priorities for envi- tial production gains resulting from climate ronmental measures and for mapping and moni- change are realised. Well-functioning ecosystems toring. One aim is to replace the large numbers of need to be maintained to prevent forest fire, land- assessments by experts with monitoring and mod- slides/avalanches, flooding and other problems elling based on monitoring data in the next edition caused by climate change. Soil structure will need of the Nature Index. to be improved and more climate-resilient produc- Systematic, long-term monitoring is an essen- tion systems developed. The agricultural and for- tial basis for evaluating the impacts of climate estry sector is responsible for managing large change on the natural environment. It is particu- areas of Norway, and sound management here larly important to develop long time series of mon- can reduce the risk of damage in other sectors. A itoring data. The Nature Index has identified a dynamic agricultural and forestry sector is there- number of major gaps in our knowledge, espe- fore a vital basis for addressing the challenges of cially as regards coastal waters and certain groups climate change. of organisms, including plants and invertebrates. Climate change adaptation in the agricultural Although many mapping and monitoring pro- and forestry sector has been reviewed in connec- jects are already in progress, further development tion with the 2009 white paper Climate challenges of the knowledge base is still needed, and relevant – agriculture part of the solution and the report actors need sound advice and information on cli- Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: 10). mate change adaptation in nature management Another white paper dealing with agriculture, for- and the important role nature has to play in mak- estry and food policy more generally was pub- ing human societies resilient to climate change. lished at the end of 2011 (Meld. St. 9 (2011–2012) This can be provided through better use of Landbruks- og matpolitikken. Velkommen til bords. already existing information channels, for exam- In Norwegian only). ple www.miljøkommune.no, which provides infor- mation and advice to the municipalities, and by strengthening cooperation between different lev- Management of land resources els in the public administration. The large areas of land managed by the agricul- A number of research projects have been initi- tural and forestry sector provide vital common ated to learn more about the effects of climate goods and ecosystem services for society as a change on the natural environment and the value whole. Farmland, forest and other areas that have of ecosystem services in climate change adapta- not been developed can act as important buffers tion. These efforts are being continued. It is par- against climate-related events such as landslides, ticularly important to focus on the pace and avalanches and flooding. If such areas are devel- impacts of climate change in Arctic areas and how oped for buildings, roads and other infrastructure, these developments contribute to the cumulative parts of the surface are made impermeable, environmental effects on ecosystems, and on resulting in more surface water runoff and storm- ocean acidification and climate change and the water management problems. synergistic effects they may have. Norwegian Climate change will result in a longer growing waters will be some of the first areas in the world season and make it possible for primary produc- to be affected by ocean acidification, and it is tion to increase, but will also speed up the spread of forest and scrub in open landscapes. Cultivated 80 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway land must be used actively and grazing pressure From 2013, a climate and environment pro- in uncultivated areas must be maintained to pre- gramme has been established under the Agricul- vent overgrowing, which displaces species and tural Agreement. This will provide funding for habitats associated with agriculture and causes projects on topics including greenhouse gas emis- the loss of agricultural and cultural heritage and sions, climate change adaptation, reducing runoff, landscapes. The visual impact of the cultural land- the cultural landscape and biodiversity. Total fund- scape is of great value in connection with tourism. ing of NOK 18 million has been allocated to the On the other hand, the growth of trees and scrub programme for 2013, and will be administered by on open agricultural landscapes may enhance car- the Norwegian Agricultural Authority and the bon storage and offer niches for new species, and county governors. Knowledge development relat- may in certain cases help to prevent landslides, ing to climate change adaptation will be a natural avalanches, drifting snow, etc. Grant schemes topic to include in the programme. have been established to ensure that active use of Well-drained soils with a good soil structure farmland continues, including its use as pasture. are resilient to high precipitation. In 2013,a new Cooperation between the environmental and agri- grant scheme for drainage projects was therefore cultural authorities is needed to maintain hay introduced, with an allocation of NOK 100 million. meadows and other traditional types of farmland This will encourage more ditching and draining, that are no longer used for production. and will increase the adaptive capacity of the agri- According to the Government expectations for cultural sector and reduce erosion and runoff regional and municipal planning adopted by Royal from cultivated areas. Decree on 24 June 2011, the Government expects The state compensation scheme for crop dam- the counties and municipalities to take steps to age is important in reducing the risk borne by prevent development of and building on valuable farmers. On the other hand, it is important to designated agricultural areas, areas of natural ensure that it does not discourage necessary environment and outdoor recreation areas. adaptation to climate change. At present, there is Regional plans should identify valuable agricul- a deductible for any claim, so that farmers bear tural areas and through long-term development part of the risk themselves. This means that it is strategies draw clear boundaries between devel- not profitable for farmer to continue producing a opment areas and agricultural land and green specific crop or variety if there is extensive crop structures. damage for several years in a row. In this way, the scheme encourages necessary adaptations to cli- mate change, while protecting farmers’ financial Grant schemes in the agricultural sector position in the short term. Over the past 25 years, an increasing proportion of the financial support provided through the Agricultural Agreement between the state and the National emergency stocks of seed farmers has been channelled through grant In 2011, high rainfall reduced seed corn produc- schemes intended to maintain and improve the tion in Norway, making it necessary to import environment. Many of these are designed to deal larger quantities in 2012. In the longer term, it with runoff problems and maintenance of the cul- may become difficult to obtain GMO-free seed. tural landscape, and are therefore relevant to cli- During negotiations on the 2011 Agricultural mate change adaptation. Some grant schemes are Agreement, it was therefore decided to establish a key elements of the national environmental pro- grant scheme from 2012 for the maintenance of gramme, and play a part in counteracting over- contingency stocks of seed corn. The Ministry of growing of open agricultural landscapes (area- Agriculture and Food adopted regulations for the based schemes for agricultural production and the scheme in October 2012. A complete review of the cultural landscape, a number-based scheme for situation as regards crop seed (both grain and livestock kept at pasture outdoors), while others other crops) is also needed, to consider possible are part of the regional environmental pro- measures for ensuring stable supplies of seed in grammes (for example schemes to reduce nutri- the future. In the first instance, the Ministry has ent runoff from farmland and to maintain the cul- asked the Norwegian Agricultural Authority to tural landscape). Other environmental grant review the problems associated with ensuring sta- schemes are organised at municipal level, for ble supplies of seed, for example clover and grass example a scheme for specific environmental seed. In response to the recent food crises, the measures in agriculture. Ministry of Agriculture and Food has also started 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 81 Climate change adaptation in Norway an assessment of whether to re-establish national table sharing of the benefits that arise from their contingency stocks of seed corn, as announced in use. the 2011 white paper on agricultural, forestry and food policy. Water pollution A wetter climate will exacerbate water pollution Genetic resources in agriculture and forestry resulting from nutrient runoff and the use of To adapt agriculture and forestry to climate and chemical pesticides in agriculture, and may result environmental change and changes in production in eutrophication, algal blooms and pollution of conditions, it is essential to safeguard the genetic drinking water. Climate change may also result in resources in crops, livestock and trees. Unless changes in the degradation of chemical pesticides this is done – whether resources are actively used and their environmental impacts. For example, by individual farmers or maintained by breeding frequent, intense precipitation events may programmes, by companies, in gene banks or in increase runoff and leaching of pesticides. In par- situ – genetic diversity will be lost. According to ticular, more rain-related flooding just after crops the Food and Agriculture Organization of the have been sprayed will increase the risk of pollu- United Nations (FAO), about 75 % of crop genetic tion of drinking water. diversity was lost between 1900 and 20006. Breed- The Norwegian Agricultural Environmental ing livestock and crops that are adapted to a Monitoring Programme measures soil erosion, changed climate requires a long-term strategic nutrient runoff and pesticide loss from agricul- effort and access to varied genetic material. The tural areas. Data from the programme are used to Nordic countries are cooperating on the manage- further develop and target environmental instru- ment of Nordic genetic resources through Nord- ments in the agricultural sector, in implementing Gen (the Nordic Genetic Resource Centre). The the Water Management Regulations and in Norwegian company Graminor AS has national national and international reporting. responsibility for plant breeding in areas where Amended soil management (no autumn tilling) the Norwegian market does not have sufficient is the most important measure for reducing run- supplies of foreign varieties. Grants are available off of nutrients and particulate matter to river sys- through the Agricultural Agreement for plant tems. In autumn 2011, about 60 % of all cereal breeding and the development of new varieties to acreage was left under stubble. Although this is a ensure that Norwegian agriculture and horticul- good way of reducing runoff from agriculture, ture has access to a range of disease-resistant research indicates that fungi and weeds are a crop varieties that are adapted to the climate. The greater problem in these areas than in areas that overall responsibility for breeding and seed of are tilled in autumn. As a result, farmers tend to Norwegian forest plants lies with the Ministry of use more pesticides. The Ministry of Agriculture Agriculture and Food. A foundation called the and Food has adopted an action plan to reduce the Norwegian Forest Seed Center is responsible for risk of damage to health and the environment practical aspects of this work under an agreement associated with the use of pesticides and make with the Ministry. Norwegian agriculture less dependent on chemi- The Norwegian Genetic Resource Centre initi- cal pesticides. ates and coordinates activities relating to the con- Higher precipitation will increase problems servation and sustainable use of Norway’s genetic related to the loss of nutrients and runoff to lakes resources. Norway is involved in international and rivers. The Water Management Regulations cooperation in the FAO Commission on Genetic require the implementation of measures to Resources for Food and Agriculture to draw up achieve good ecological status in river systems by global status reports and action plans to ensure 2021. In the long term, climate change may the conservation and sustainable use of these increase runoff from agricultural areas, and this resources. The International Treaty on Plant must be taken into account in future agricultural Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and policy. The situation will be particularly challeng- the Nagoya Protocol to the Convention on Biologi- ing in parts of the country where livestock density cal Diversity provide the international framework is high or that are vulnerable to erosion. There are for access to genetic resources and fair and equi- wide variations in natural conditions, climate and farming methods in Norway, and priorities for 6 Corrected from ‘the past 50 years’ in the original Norwe- measures to prevent pollution and nutrient runoff, gian text. and thus losses to farmers, must therefore be var- 82 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ied accordingly. Measures of these kinds are cov- be able to reproduce more rapidly, spread more ered by grant schemes under the Agricultural widely and survive the winter better. Further Agreement. They will also be included in pro- development of the «VIPS» forecasting system grammes of measures under the Water Manage- will be an important way of preventing crop losses ment Regulations. The system of management and poor crop quality. The system provides fore- cycles and rolling six-year management plans casts of the risk of damage from plant diseases, under the regulations makes it possible to adapt pests and weeds for important agricultural and measures to climate change and its conse- horticultural crops, and helps farmers assess the quences. need to use pesticides. Fungal diseases are par- ticularly likely to become more of a problem as precipitation rises. Researchers have observed Plant and animal health more widespread occurrence of fungi that pro- A milder climate and higher precipitation may duce mycotoxins, which can be harmful to both increase the problems associated with plant and people and animals. Growing problems associated animal diseases, pests and weeds. Plant pests will with plant diseases, pests and weeds may result in

Box 8.2 The Svalbard Global Seed Vault The Svalbard Global Seed Vault was established frozen. This means that gene banks can feel con- by the Norwegian Government in 2008 to pro- fident about depositing duplicates of their valua- vide a safe repository for seeds from the world’s ble collections here. Five years after the seed seedbanks. The seed vault is in a cavern exca- vault opened, it has received more than 750 000 vated into a mountain in the permafrost, and the seed samples from 53 gene banks in Norway temperature is maintained at -18 °C. Even in the and other parts of the world. event of a power cut, the samples will remain

Figure 8.1 Svalbard Global Seed Vault, Longyearbyen Source: Håkon Mosvold Larsen/NTB scanpix 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 83 Climate change adaptation in Norway more use of pesticides, making it even more bandry districts greater responsibility for manage- important to continue efforts to make agriculture ment of grazing resources. Reindeer numbers less dependent on chemical pesticides and reduce need to be kept stable at a level that allows flexibil- the risks associated with their use. ity in the way different areas are used. For exam- In order to address the challenges associated ple, reindeer owners need to be able to move to with climate change, it is important to maintain an other areas if the normal winter grazing grounds effective and clearly targeted inspection and are inaccessible because of deep snow or the for- enforcement regime and ensure that active moni- mation of a hard ice crust («ice-locked»). A sys- toring and emergency preparedness activities are tem of emergency groups with representatives of part of the Norwegian Food Safety Authority’s the authorities and the reindeer husbandry indus- responsibilities in the field of animal health. These try has been established, and a group can take activities must be based on ongoing research and action if large areas of reindeer grazing are inac- knowledge development by the Norwegian Veteri- cessible because of weather conditions. nary Institute. We need to know which serious More knowledge is needed about interactions animal diseases are expected to show a higher between different impacts of climate change, and risk of introduction, spread and establishment in how this will affect different reindeer grazing Norway, and what implications this will have for areas. New knowledge about the consequences of agriculture and food production. climate change for reindeer husbandry may make The results of monitoring and control pro- it necessary to review adaptation measures in the grammes are vital to an understanding of the situ- industry at regular intervals. The Norwegian ation at any given time. Monitoring programmes, Reindeer Husbandry Association already makes contingency tools and plans for combating animal regular assessments of the need for measures to disease must be in accordance with current legis- mitigate the impacts of factors such as overgrow- lation and updated risk assessments. ing of grazing areas and changes in the manage- The effects of climate change on the animal ment regime. health situation, including the expected increase in the number of disease-causing organisms, will make it necessary to step up efforts to combat dis- The forestry industry and climate change adaptation ease. Environmental change and a change in the Forest plant breeding programmes in Norway balance between pathogens and hosts, together need to be stepped up to obtain the climate-related with the possible increase in the incidence of benefits described in the 2012 white paper on Nor- zoonoses, must be met with sound emergency wegian climate policy (Meld. St. 21 (2011–2012)), planning and preventive measures. and to ensure that Norwegian forests are adapted to future climate change, as discussed in the 2011 white paper on agricultural, forestry and food pol- Reindeer husbandry and climate change adaptation icy (Meld. St. 21 (2011–2012)). Forest plant Reindeer husbandry will be strongly influenced breeding with a view to adaptation makes use of by climate change. The Norwegian Reindeer Hus- the wide genetic diversity in Norway’s forest trees bandry Act is intended to facilitate sustainable use to produce plant material that is more resilient to of reindeer grazing resources to benefit both climate change. Forest plant material produced those involved in reindeer husbandry and society through breeding programmes can be used as a whole. Reindeer husbandry is to be main- across wider climatic gradients than material pro- tained as an important basis for Sami culture, in duced by natural reproduction. Climate change accordance with Article 110a of the Norwegian adaptation is an important element of the strategy Constitution and the provisions of international for forest plant breeding for 2010–40 drawn up by law on indigenous peoples and minorities. the Norwegian Forest Seed Center. Reindeer husbandry in Norway is organised in Improving the resilience of forests is an impor- the traditional way, with migration between sea- tant element of the adaptation of a sustainable for- sonal grazing grounds. It is therefore vulnerable est management regime to climate change. Appro- to climate change, which adds to the pressure priate measures include good forest hygiene, the from other commercial interests, land-use con- choice of tree species, the choice of resilient seed flicts and predators. Such external pressures have trees and stand boundaries, appropriate pro- implications for use of grazing resources, migra- grammes for tending young-growth stands, and tion routes and the timing of migration. The 2007 caution when thinning at a late stage and during Reindeer Husbandry Act gave the reindeer hus- selection cutting. Existing tools for stand manage- 84 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway ment should be adapted to incorporate climate ards for forest and farm roads. Guidelines have change considerations, and steps must be taken to been issued on the risk of soil slides when forest ensure that the existing legislation takes forest roads are built in steep terrain, and how they can hygiene properly into account. be prevented by using appropriate construction Higher temperatures and a longer growing techniques and suitable design and specifications season will increase the production capacity of for- for ditches, culverts and drains. The Ministry of ests. It will be important for the forestry industry Agriculture and Food has begun revision of the to make use of the opportunities this offers legislation on planning and constructing forestry through forest plant breeding, promoting regener- and farm roads, and will consider these in the con- ation and forest management. Such opportunities text of relevant provisions in the Planning and should also be considered in forestry planning Building Act and the Nature Diversity Act. The and in economic calculations where forests are legislation is intended to promote good overall classified according to site quality. solutions that ensure the necessary infrastructure Climate change may also have indirect conse- for the forestry industry and at the same time take quences for forest health. There is particular con- into account safety, important environmental con- cern about the possible establishment of forest siderations and the risk of flooding, landslides and pests or diseases whose natural distribution is in avalanches. milder climates outside Norway. New diseases Access to forest resources is essential not only affecting ash and elm trees in Norway are exam- for forestry operations, but also in connection ples of the spread of climate-related diseases. with forest fires and forest hygiene measures, The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food such as the removal of damaged trees that could Safety, which carries out independent risk assess- provide suitable breeding sites for various insect ments relating to plant health, has detected traces pests. Both the forest road network and the public of plant pests that could have very serious impacts roads system are of crucial importance for clean- in the form of forest disease or death if they up operations and the removal of timber after become established in Norway. large-scale forest damage. When damage has The risk has increased considerably in recent occurred, effective application processes are years with the growing trade in timber and timber needed. Coordination between the ministries products. Some pests would be capable of estab- involved and the public roads authorities must be lishing themselves in Norway in the current cli- improved so that clean-up operations can rapidly mate, but damage will only become apparent at be initiated. higher temperatures. More knowledge of how to There have been a number of major forest control forest pests that already occur naturally in fires (for example in Froland in Aust-Agder in Norway is also needed, since they are expected to 2008) and storms that have caused damage (for become more widespread in a warmer climate. example «Dagmar» in 2011) in Norwegian forests In addition to developing contingency strate- in recent years, which have been challenging to gies and plans, it may therefore be necessary to deal with. Better coordination is needed between strengthen monitoring programmes and certain the public and private sectors in contingency preventive measures, for example for forest near plans for the forestry sector, so that all parties Norway’s main import nodes, as mentioned in the involved can work together efficiently during 2011 white paper on agricultural, forestry and emergencies. In 2008, a government-appointed food policy. working group delivered a report on emergency Norway’s regulations on forest tree seed and preparedness and response to forest fires in Nor- plant material date from 1996. They are to be way, and its conclusions need to be followed up revised in keeping with new knowledge and new further. For example, the report pointed out the legislation, for example the new regulations on importance of deploying resources fully at an foreign tree species for forestry purposes. These early stage to prevent small forest fires from new regulations must be implemented in a way developing into large-scale incidents that are diffi- that takes both biodiversity considerations and cult to deal with and involve several sectors (such adaptation of Norwegian forests to climate change as the Froland forest fire). into account. Rules on plant quality and on the Responsibility for cover against natural hazard import and export of genetic material must also damage, including damage directly caused by be improved when the regulations are revised. events such as landslides, avalanches, storms and Climate change adaptation is being considered flooding, is shared between the Norwegian Natu- in connection with an ongoing revision of stand- ral Disaster Fund and private insurance compa- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 85 Climate change adaptation in Norway nies. About 50 % of the total area of forest in Nor- longer, making it possible to increase yields and way is not covered by private insurance arrange- grow new types of crops. To make use of these ments and is therefore not eligible for compensa- opportunities, more knowledge will be needed tion from the Fund. In view of the climate change about: projected for Norway, the Ministry of Agriculture – plant material (new varieties and adaptation of and Food will look more closely at how it would be existing varieties by means of breeding pro- possible to provide protection against financial grammes); losses resulting from climate-related damage for a – farming techniques (e.g. more use of grazing larger proportion of Norwegian forests. Informa- resources); tion on forest owners’ own responsibility for pre- – cultivation techniques (potentially longer ventive measures and for obtaining insurance growing season, frost damage, water issues); against storm damage and the like must be – social and economic impacts of changes in the improved. crops and livestock produced and in the areas Forest that provides protection against natural used on production and food quality (e.g. pre- hazards such as landslides, avalanches, wind- venting any increase in fungal infection pres- throw and flooding is managed in accordance with sure from resulting in the presence of toxins in Norwegian forestry law. The same applies to for- food and animal feedstuffs). est that protects other areas of forest, farmland or built-up areas. The county departments of agricul- Biotechnology makes use of natural biological ture are responsible for mapping theses areas, processes and offers unique opportunities for and the municipal councils determine their environmentally sound, climate-friendly innova- boundaries, which are also shown in municipal tion. According to the report The Bioeconomy to master plans. Owners are required to provide noti- 2030: Designing a Policy Agenda, published by the fication before any logging in such areas, and the OECD in 2009, agricultural and industrial applica- county governors can issue guidelines for logging tions of biotechnology are expected to show the in protective forests. Protective forests can pro- greatest growth up to 2010. The report estimates vide important ecosystem services in connection that in 2030, 36 % of all applications of biotechnol- with climate change adaptation. ogy will be in the agricultural sector, often based on new research findings.

Knowledge production Climate change will influence biological produc- 2. Sustainable production of sufficient quantities of tion systems, including agriculture and forestry. safe food These sectors are therefore vulnerable both to A warmer climate will allow pests and diseases to gradual climate change and to extreme weather become established and spread to new areas. In events. Research and development projects, moni- future, threats to animal, plant and human health toring programmes, international cooperation and and to biodiversity may to a considerable degree dissemination activities are designed to identify come from as yet unknown diseases and pests the impacts climate change will have on agricul- (weeds, insects, bacteria, viruses, fungi, nema- ture and forestry in Norway and how different todes). This will require more knowledge in vari- production types in different parts of the country ous fields, including the following: best can be adapted. The Ministry of Agriculture – diagnosis, prevention, treatment, pathogenic and Food is giving priority to funding four agents and control of infection; research areas: – zoonoses (diseases that can be transmitted bet- ween animals and humans); – breeding of more resistant plant varieties; 1. Innovation and competitiveness in the agricultural, – environmental impacts of pesticides, and alter- forestry and food sector natives to chemical pesticides; Climate change will make it more difficult for the – adaptation of farming and cultivation techni- global food system to provide enough food to ques; meet growing demand. However, in northern lati- – impacts of climate change on grazing resour- tudes the growing season is expected to become ces and on reindeer parasites/diseases. 86 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

– the role of agricultural areas in climate change 3. Emissions reductions, adaptation and renewable adaptation and in preventing damage in other energy sectors, for example from flooding, fire and Norway’s forestry policy promotes wider use of landslides/avalanches; timber in a variety of products and for energy pur- – the responsibility of the agricultural and fore- poses, and active utilisation of forests for commer- stry sector for water pollution as a result of cial purposes and for climate change adaptation runoff and loss of nutrients to river systems. and mitigation. More knowledge is needed about: – interactions between precipitation, soils and technology, and conservation of genetic diver- International research cooperation sity to develop more resilient forest production There has been a great deal of instability in the systems; wider world around Norway in recent years, trig- – choice of tree species, management, and links gered by the food crisis and financial crisis, and between forest management and the risk of not least by the impacts of weather and climate damage; change. Import protection and higher prices for – monitoring and development of preventive key foods mean that Norway is currently to some measures against alien pest organisms; extent shielded from price fluctuations on the – existing forestry monitoring and mapping pro- world market resulting from these crises, but it is grammes, which need to be reviewed to clarify not unaffected. Agricultural and food policy is whether any changes are needed in connection being developed in a way that takes such factors with climate change adaptation. into consideration. Climate-related research should therefore investigate these complex relationships through a 4. Knowledge development for the public cross-sectoral approach and cooperation. Norway administration should take part in international cooperation in The public administration makes use of a variety order to resolve shared challenges, expand the of policy instruments to ensure that the agricul- scope of research, revitalise Norwegian research tural, forestry and food sector can fulfil its func- and be able to understand and make use of tions, and needs more knowledge about the fol- research results from other countries. lowing:

Box 8.3 Programmes, infrastructure and institutes There are five agricultural research institutes in research programme BIONÆR (on sustainable Norway: Bioforsk (the Norwegian Institute for innovation in food and bio-based industries) and Agricultural and Environmental Research), the the NORKLIMA climate research programme. Centre for Rural Research, the Norwegian For- Many of the issues discussed in the section est and Landscape Institute, the Norwegian above are included in the plans for the Agricultural Economics Research Institute and BIOKLIMA project, which aims to develop a the Norwegian Veterinary Institute). They have national infrastructure for studying climate a substantial research and development portfo- effects in natural and agro-ecosystems. A pre- lio in agriculture, forestry, food and feedstuff project has started up to look at the feasibility of production. This must be maintained and fur- developing a research infrastructure offering a ther developed. Since there is a great deal of climate-controlled facility for experimental stud- uncertainty about climate change, broad-based ies of soil, water, plants and greenhouse gases, research is needed on how agriculture will be and where it is also possible to study the effects able to respond to different climate change sce- of frost. Norway is also playing an active part in narios. international programme cooperation related to The Research Council of Norway has issued climate change adaptation in agriculture and for- several calls for proposals related to climate estry. change adaptation in agriculture as part of the 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 87 Climate change adaptation in Norway

8.3 Fisheries and aquaculture related to climate change, and to reduce green- house gas emissions from the sector. One impor- The projected impacts of changes in water tem- tant measure for adaptation measure is the contin- perature, higher water levels and wilder weather uation of important monitoring series. Following will require adaptations in all areas of responsibil- developments in factors such as temperature, ity under the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal acidification, populations, fish health and food Affairs. Adequate information about the impacts safety closely gives a good basis for taking the of climate change and ocean acidification on necessary action. The Institute of Marine marine ecosystems is needed so that fisheries and Research is responsible for most climate-related coastal management can be adapted to new condi- monitoring in the marine environment. Rising lev- tions. Chapter 8.5 on infrastructure discusses els of CO2 in the atmosphere lead to higher CO2 assessments by the transport agencies of the risks uptake in seawater. The Institute of Marine associated with the consequences of climate Research started monitoring of ocean acidification change, for example extreme weather events and in 2010. A number of projects have been started to storm surges. investigate the impacts of acidification on species A concerted research effort has been at different levels in food chains, such as the cope- launched to learn more about the role of the pod Calanus finmarchicus, lobster, mackerel, cod oceans in the climate system and the impacts of and scallops. The National Institute of Nutrition climate change on marine ecosystems and and Seafood Research is responsible for research resources. Projects have shown that a range of cli- and development on environmentally sound feed mate factors will have effects on marine organ- for farmed fish and on seafood safety and quality. isms at both individual and population level. Cli- As regards the reduction of greenhouse gas mate change will entail management challenges emissions, the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal for the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs. Affairs has taken the initiative for the develop- The Ministry has drawn up a climate change ment of a Norwegian standard for calculating the strategy for its own areas of responsibility. Its goal carbon footprint of seafood under the auspices of is to put the fisheries and coastal administration in Standards Norway. The work is expected to be the best possible position to meet challenges completed in spring 2013.

Box 8.4 Hav21 The HAV21 strategy committee was established More and more, complex, interdisciplinary by the Government in autumn 2011 with a man- research and development is required. The com- date to draw up a proposal for an integrated mittee recommended the use of interdiscipli- marine research strategy to ensure effective and nary and cross-sectoral projects involving sci- targeted use of marine research resources. The ence and technology, social sciences and the committee presented its report, An R&D stra- humanities, drawing on Norway’s extensive tegy for a marine nation of substance, on 7 knowledge base in the offshore and maritime November 2012. sectors. In the strategy, the committee identifies The strategy notes that Norway takes a research and knowledge needs that must be met broad-based approach to marine research and in order to develop the marine sector in accord- development, which should be continued. This ance with the Government’s vision that Norway is the point of departure for the strategy commit- should be the world’s leading seafood nation, tee’s recommended priorities: social and legal maintain clean, rich seas for future generations, perspectives, management and use; knowledge and maintain an integrated, ecosystem-based of ecosystems; the Arctic and northern areas; marine management regime. The report also harvesting and cultivating new marine raw concludes that it is prudent for Norway to con- materials; fish health and sustainable, safe and tinue investing in the marine sector, which is a healthy seafood; food and markets; and technol- sector in which it excels. ogy. These priorities have not been ranked. The kind of knowledge needed in the marine sector has become increasingly complicated. 88 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

8.4 Health tem operated by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. The Directorate of Health is responsible Many types of health risks are influenced by cli- for defining critical vulnerabilities, taking appro- mate change. Climate change may result in a neg- priate adaptation action, and identifying chal- ative trend in drinking water quality. Food- and lenges to the health sector. The Institute of Public water-borne infections are among the commonest Health is responsible for assessing the health infections in the world and are sensitive to climate impacts of changes that may occur in Norway, for change. Climate change can entail a higher risk of example in temperature, water quality and the vector-borne diseases carried by organisms such prevalence of vectors. as mosquitoes, ticks and snails. The climate- related natural hazards that are responsible for the greatest number of deaths in Norway are Climate change and drinking water supplies storms, flooding, landslides and avalanches. Cli- The importance of drinking water as a source of mate-related accidents and diseases are a general water- and food-borne infections is probably risk factor in Norway, but climate change is not greater in Norway than in other developed coun- expected to cause any large changes in mortality. tries, partly because such a large proportion of Norway is a safe country, and public health is gen- drinking water is surface water. erally good. This means that we have a sound Sections 5 and 9 of the Norwegian Public basis for dealing with the challenges of climate Health Act, which entered into force on 1 January change. 2012, provide the authority to require new meas- Confidence that life and health will always be ures to be planned, initiated and implemented so safeguarded is a fundamental value of our society, that climate change considerations are more fully and contributes to a high quality of life. This incorporated into relevant decision-making pro- means that measures are taken to prevent disease cesses. The precautionary principle is one of the and injury and to ensure adequate medical care fundamental principles underlying the Act and and emergency services. In the event of an inci- should therefore underlie municipal risk and vul- dent involving a risk to life and health, substantial nerability assessments and emergency prepared- resources are mobilised, and priority is given to ness plans (see section 28 of the Act), which ensuring that every inhabitant feels safe, regard- should take into account the potential impacts of less of the geographical region in which they live. climate-related hazards. All sectors and enterprises have a duty to safe- It is relatively straightforward to take steps to guard life and health within their respective improve raw water quality and prevent contamina- spheres of responsibility. tion of water treatment plants, and to intensify The Norwegian health services are the monitoring of water quality. The most vulnerable responsibility of the Ministry of Health and Care treatment plants are also relatively easy to iden- Services. The ministry administers the health sec- tify. However, it is more difficult to predict where tor by means of legislation and annual budget allo- there is a risk of waste water seeping into the cations and through government agencies and drinking water supply, because there is insuffi- enterprises. The ministry is also responsible for cient information about the state of the pipeline treatment, research and monitoring activities in network. It is also more difficult and more costly the sector. Sound organisation and a clear division to prevent contamination of the pipeline network of responsibility are essential, and these factors by waste water, making these types of adaptation will also be fundamental in addressing the chal- measures more difficult. lenges associated with climate change. The Norwegian Food Safety Authority has Individual food producers and water works are pointed out the need to maintain and upgrade responsible for ensuring that their products are drinking water supply systems. The responsibility safe to eat and drink. The Norwegian Food Safety for ensuring that drinking supplies are safe lies Authority is the supervisory authority for the leg- with the municipalities and other owners of water islation governing food and drink. The health supply systems. authorities have a number of procedures for moni- In 2012 the Norwegian Food Safety Authority toring the health of the population, including the conducted a national inspection campaign focus- occurrence of diseases associated with climate ing on the distribution system for drinking water. change. For example, physicians have a duty to Drinking water was also one of the elements of an report every case of more than 50 communicable emergency preparedness exercise conducted in diseases by means of a dedicated reporting sys- 2012 in the counties of Buskerud, Vestfold and 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 89 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Telemark, in which drinking water was used to train cooperation with county governors and 8.5 Buildings and other infrastructure between municipal medical officers. The exercise revealed a need to discuss and clarify roles and Transport responsibilities with the county governors’ Norway’s transport systems are vulnerable to cli- offices. mate change. Higher precipitation and more A working group of the relevant ministries and intense precipitation events are expected to create government agencies has been appointed to con- problems for roads and railways in particular, in sider potential problems related to drinking water the form of greater wear and tear, more damage and the distribution network. and traffic disruption. Maritime and air transport will also be vulnerable to more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, storm surges and gener- Vectors ally more difficult climatic conditions. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health and the Society is dependent on a well-functioning National Veterinary Institute run the project transport system, and traffic disruption can easily www.flattogflue.no, which registers data on the have major consequences. The goal of the Gov- distribution of sheep ticks (Ixodes ricinus) and ernment’s transport policy is to provide an effi- deer keds (Lipoptena cervi) based on information cient, safe and environmentally sound transport reported by hunters. Data are registered for each system that meets society’s needs and promotes hunting season, and it is planned to continue the regional development. project in the years ahead. The Norwegian Insti- Climatic conditions and extreme events fre- tute of Public Health has collected sheep ticks quently cause disruption of the transport system within and outside the known area of distribution and pose considerable risks to the sector even in of the virus disease tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) today’s climate. The transport authorities there- and analysed them for TBE. This is the vector- fore attach great importance to including climatic borne disease that is most likely to become more factors and climate change projections in their common as a result of future climate change. planning processes. For many years the manuals, guidelines and standards for the maintenance of existing infrastructure and the construction of International cooperation new infrastructure published by the various trans- Norway takes an active part in the work in the port agencies have been revised as more knowl- environment and health field under the auspices edge of climate change becomes available. of the World Health Organization. This includes The Ministry of Transport and Communica- implementation of the Protocol on Water and tions is responsible for the transport sector, and Health, where Norway is chair of the Bureau of lays down the overall framework for policy devel- the Protocol on Water and Health for the period opment for the various transport sectors. This 2011–13. The protocol provides guidance on does not apply, however, to maritime transport, addressing the impacts of climate change on which is the responsibility of the Ministry of Fish- drinking water. eries and Coastal Affairs. The national transport Norway is a party to the Parma Declaration on plan, which is a 10-year rolling plan that serves as Environment and Health, which was adopted at a platform for development of the sector as a the WHO Fifth Ministerial Conference on Envi- whole, is the most important strategic document. ronment and Health in 2010, and is promoting its The guidelines for the various transport authori- implementation. The declaration identifies the key ties drawn up in connection with the preparation environment and health challenges in Europe and of the 2014–23 National Transport Plan state that presents ways to address them, politically, techni- the proposed plans and priorities must take into cally and through participation by involved consideration today’s climate and projected cli- groups. Protecting children’s health and protect- mate change. ing health and the environment from climate In 2007 the Ministry of Transport and Com- change are two of the commitments undertaken munications presented a risk and vulnerability by the parties. assessment for the transport system from a cross- Norway participates in several European sectoral perspective (SAMROS I). The results of a expert networks, including meetings on environ- follow-up project, SAMROS II, will be presented in ment and health and ECDC/VBORNET, a net- the first half of 2013, and will provide an updated work on vector surveillance. overview together with the most recent knowl- 90 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway edge concerning the risks facing the transport The project focuses on areas where closer cooper- sector. The projects have identified critical assets ation between the various agencies is essential for in the transport and ICT sectors, such as improving preparedness, risk management and stretches of road or rail, terminals and control management of extreme events, particularly in centres, the disruption of which would have par- relation to landslides, avalanches and flooding. ticularly serious implications for the transport and The project includes risk and vulnerability assess- communications system. Specific measures have ments, stormwater management, mapping, early been proposed for protecting these assets, warning and safety measures in connection with together with emergency plans in the event of dis- landslides, avalanches and flooding, and quick ruption. The goal is to ensure that critical assets in clay. The project was launched in 2012 and will these sectors are sufficiently resilient to different last for four years. types of stress, including extreme weather events Avinor has made substantial efforts to assess and climate change. In the field of maritime trans- the probable impacts of climate change on air- port, risk and vulnerability assessments are being ports in Norway. A major project is being started conducted for exposed fairways and navigation in 2013 to provide a more systematic overview of infrastructure. The Norwegian Coastal Adminis- vulnerability to climate change. tration will consider the need to install more The new knowledge that is being generated is buoys to measure wind speed, currents and wave used to develop specific measures. The transport height, and will publish the resulting data. authorities ensure that the new knowledge and Surveys and research are a key part of adapta- lessons learned from ongoing projects are system- tion work by the Norwegian transport authorities. atised and disseminated to all administrative lev- In close cooperation with the National Rail Admin- els in the transport sector. Thus the Norwegian istration, the Public Roads Administration has Public Roads Administration has made changes in conducted an R&D project called «Climate and its rules and manuals as a result of the «Climate transport», which proposed measures in four and transport» project. Other developments areas: new transport infrastructure, existing road include stricter requirements for including cli- and railway networks, emergency preparedness mate considerations in road and railway planning and development of a knowledge base for climate and in risk and vulnerability assessments, stricter change adaptation. The project has provided sub- requirements for the choice of design values for stantial information on the impacts of climate flooding and runoff, measures to increase drain- change and on how the transport sectors can take age capacity, and new guidelines for landslide and account of climate and climate change considera- avalanche risk management and safety measures. tions. Coordination, exchange of experience and In addition to amendments to the legislation, pro- cooperation with other agencies will enable the posals are being discussed for adaptation meas- transport authorities to carry out more effective ures in connection with management of the road safety measures and develop better preparedness network. In 2013 the Norwegian Coastal Adminis- systems against extreme weather events. The tration is to revise its guidelines for breakwaters National Rail Administration has developed a sys- to include climate change considerations. tem of preparedness levels and early warning pro- It is especially important to ensure that there cedures for extreme weather events and flooding, are adequate rules and sufficient expertise and and the Public Roads Administration is doing the capacity at municipal level to ensure that the con- same. The transport authorities cooperate closely sequences of climate change are taken properly with the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy into account in connection with local road build- Directorate, among other things on a national ing. The changes in the rules set out in the manu- warning system for landslides and avalanches. als of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration However, further knowledge-building is still are applicable to all administrative levels. Higher needed. precipitation and more intense precipitation The Public Roads Administration, the National events often have even more severe impacts on Rail Administration and the Water Resources and municipal roads than elsewhere. This is because Energy Directorate have started an R&D project, there are often larger areas of impermeable sur- «Natural hazards – infrastructure, flooding, land- faces, they are affected by streams with a short slides and avalanches», that is partly based on the response time, and in some places the infrastruc- «Climate and transport» project. The aim is to ture is poorly maintained, making it difficult to make infrastructure more resilient and improve drain away stormwater effectively. coordination when natural hazard events occur. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 91 Climate change adaptation in Norway

The road and railway maintenance backlog is ogy and the Norwegian Forest and Landscape increasing the vulnerability of this infrastructure Institute to find ways of improving protection of to climate change, and reducing the backlog will wooden structures against moisture. These be an essential step in adaptation. involve appropriate structural design, develop- ment of new, environmentally friendly impregna- tion agents, preservatives that can be brushed or Buildings spread on the wood surface, use of the correct The building sector is large, complex and frag- type and quality of wood, and new protection mented. Buildings are vital to everyone’s lives, methods such as the use of electrodes. Many of and the sector includes the construction industry, the projects have been supported by the innova- a major industry with a strong influence on other tion programme for wooden materials under Inno- sectors. The Government’s overall goal is for vation Norway. buildings in Norway to be well designed, safe, The Planning and Building Act and the techni- energy efficient and healthy. cal regulations under the Act are key instruments The impacts of climate change in Norway will for the planning and building authorities in pre- have major implications for the requirements that venting the harmful effects of climate change. will have to be set for siting buildings and for Clear, up-to-date and effective legislation provides building technology to take account of the higher guidelines for adaptation efforts in the construc- risk of landslides, avalanches and flooding, larger tion industry. This is emphasised in a white paper volumes of stormwater and rising sea levels. from the Ministry of Local Government and The building sector is the responsibility of the Regional Development on building policy (Gode Ministry of Local Government and Regional bygg for eit betre samfunn, Meld. St. 28 (2011– Development, which establishes the overall 2012), in Norwegian only). The white paper high- framework for legislation, budget funding, lights the importance of focusing on climate research, organisation and information. The Nor- change and the need for adaptation to future cli- wegian Building Authority plays a central role in mate change when building today. administering and developing the technical build- According to the white paper, the need to ing requirements, ensuring that up-to-date knowl- amend legislation in the light of new knowledge edge is available and providing guidelines and about the impacts of climate change will be con- information. The building sector is made up of sidered. This applies particularly to amendments many different actors with important roles in to the regulations on technical requirements for building policy, including the construction indus- buildings. The white paper also states that the try, owners of public and private buildings, county Government will promote competence-building in governors, counties, municipalities and a number the municipalities and the development of a better of government agencies. factual basis on climate change adaptation and cli- The sector has given high priority to improv- mate risks. The introduction of new tools and ing knowledge about the impacts of climate methods to make it easier for municipalities to change on buildings. Knowledge-building is an take climate change into account will be consid- essential part of the first phase of adaptation. SIN- ered. For example, tools that ensure good mois- TEF Building and Infrastructure was commis- ture management will be considered to ensure sioned by the Norwegian Building Authority to that this is taken seriously throughout building conduct a risk and vulnerability assessment for a processes. number of climate parameters. The assessment The white paper also states that the Govern- provides an overview by county, and is intended to ment will consider the development of local cli- provide a better foundation for deciding on appro- mate indexes and climate zones to clarify which priate measures. On the basis of the assessment, requirements should apply to buildings and in SINTEF Building and Infrastructure has proposed municipal land-use planning. Geographically dif- a number of measures for reducing the vulnerabil- ferentiated climate data and indexes have not pre- ity of the construction industry to climate change viously been available, making it difficult to assess and increasing its adaptive capacity. With regard the suitability of particular technical solutions for to the risk of decay in the event of a more humid a particular type of climate. Climate indexes can climate, R&D is being conducted under the aus- be an important tool for developing adaptation pices of the Norwegian Institute of Wood Technol- measures. 92 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

The power supply system Box 8.5 The Norwegian Water The power supply system is a critical infrastructure, Resources and Energy Directorate since the normal functioning of society depends and climate change on a secure and stable power supply. Major dis- ruption of the power supply would have significant In order to maintain security of supply, the economic consequences and pose a threat to life electricity sector needs to adapt to climate and health. Some of the factors that already con- change. The Water Resources and Energy stitute risks to the power supply may become Directorate is following this up through licens- more pronounced in future as the climate ing procedures and a greater emphasis on changes. This could increase the need for mainte- inspection and enforcement. In 2009 and 2012 nance and the risk of damage and power cuts. On the directorate conducted surveys of the level the other hand, more precipitation may increase of awareness of climate change and adaptation the potential for electricity production. activities in the sector. It has also produced a Over 300 public and private enterprises, organ- report on climate-related challenges in the ised in different ways, are concerned with the sector up to 2100 (Klimautfordringer i kraftsek- generation, transmission and sale of electricity. toren frem mot 2100, in Norwegian only). The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is respon- sible for energy supplies, and the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate adminis- ters the electricity resources and the power sup- injury to people, the environment or property ply system on behalf of the ministry. The directo- (third parties). The main elements of this work rate determines the framework for the produc- are control and approval of technical plans and of tion, sale, transmission and use of energy, and is periodic safety inspections, control of the con- responsible for the power supply system, quality struction of installations and inspection and audit- of supply, security and emergency preparedness ing of existing facilities and their owners. in the sector. The directorate is also responsible The licensing requirements for actors in this for licensing procedures for hydropower develop- sector are an important tool for the Norwegian ments in rivers systems, electricity production Water Resources and Energy Directorate, and are and power lines. The Directorate for Civil Protec- mentioned as a particular strength in connection tion and Emergency Planning has been given the with adaptation work in the power sector in the responsibility for electricity safety by the Ministry report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU of Justice and Public Security, and is also responsi- 2010: 10). The licensing system is based on the ble for monitoring emergency planning by other provisions of the Energy Act, the Water Resources authorities. The two directorates have a wide Act, the Watercourse Regulation Act and the range of tools for ensuring security of electricity Industrial Licensing Act. An enterprise will only supply in Norway that also take into account the be granted a licence in the power supply sector if higher level of risk associated with future climate it meets the safety requirements for the construc- change. tion, commissioning and operation of the installa- The Water Resources and Energy Directorate tion or facilities in question. For example, the is responsible for assessing the impacts of climate Energy Act grants wide powers to attach condi- change within its sphere of responsibility and for tions to licences as long as there is an objective ensuring that the necessary adaptation measures link between the conditions and the activity sub- are taken. There is a need for continual adaptation ject to licensing. In the case of hydropower instal- to avoid incidents that could entail a risk of loss of lations, licences may include requirements for human life or material damage or disrupt critical measures to reduce the risk of damage from flood- infrastructure and societal functions. Adaptation ing, erosion, sea level rise and so on. The guide- efforts should focus on adequate security of sup- lines for flood calculations contain recommenda- ply and emergency preparedness in the power tions for assessing the impacts of climate change.7 supply sector and seek to prevent damage from The Water Resources and Energy Directorate natural hazard events such as flooding, landslides gives priority to ensuring that the guidelines are and avalanches. The Water Resources and Energy Directorate is responsible for ensuring that dams and other 7 Retningslinjer for flomberegninger (Guidelines for flood installations do not represent a risk of damage or assessment, in Norwegian), NVE 2011. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 93 Climate change adaptation in Norway followed in the plans for new dams and the control winter, and plans for the necessary maintenance of existing ones. and upgrading should be adapted to changes in The regulations relating to dam safety cover runoff patterns. The dam safety regulations all dams that represent a risk of damage to third include requirements for preparedness and emer- parties and require safety reviews of all dams at gency planning by dam owners for situations that intervals of 15–20 years. One of the purposes is to could represent a risk of damage. Emergency identify changes in the loads to which the dam is plans must be based on risk and vulnerability subject, such as changes in flood volumes, wind, assessments, be kept up to date and revised at waves and ice loads, both under existing condi- least every third year, and reflect any increase in tions and in the context of future climate change. risk as a result of climate change. In 2012 the Water Resources and Energy Directo- The Water Resources and Energy Directo- rate conducted a survey of the hydropower sec- rate’s licensing procedures are required to take tor’s awareness of climate change. security of supply into account. Improving secu- Monitoring and inspection of dams under nor- rity of supply is often given as a reason for applica- mal operating conditions and in emergencies tions for licences for reinvestment and upgrading. should be adapted to the probable effects of cli- Much of the power grid in Norway was con- mate change, such as more frequent flooding in structed during the 1960s, 70s and 80s, and given

Box 8.6 Excerpt from the 2010 climate change adaptation strategy of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate The changing climate makes it necessary to – Measures and decisions should be resilient adapt continuously in order to prevent adverse to climate change, in other words they should environmental impacts that may entail a threat function as intended even if actual climate to human life and damage critical infrastructure change is rather different from projected cli- and societal functions. Adaptation includes both mate change. physical measures and steps to acquire suffi- – Adaptation measures that also contribute to cient knowledge about climate change to make results in other areas (such as nature conser- effective decisions. The speed of climate change vation, flood protection, or security of supply) and its impacts will vary between the different represent a win-win situation and should be parts of the country. Moreover, the Water given high priority. Resources and Energy Directorate makes deci- – Adaptation measures that are cost-effective sions with very different time horizons. The cli- and will function equally well or better if the mate change adaptation strategy has to reflect climate changes as projected should be given these factors in order to enable the directorate high priority. to do the right things at the right times. This – Costly adaptation measures whose effects means that the strategy must be dynamic and be will be reduced by projected climate change continuously updated as new knowledge should have low priority. becomes available. A dynamic climate change strategy should The Water Resources and Energy Directorate be based on the following principles: must pay special attention to areas of responsi- – Measures and decisions with a short lifetime bility where climate change is expected to have should be assessed on the basis of today’s cli- particularly serious impacts. This may involve mate. amending regulations or clarifying require- – Measures and decisions with a long lifetime ments, such as requirements for maintenance, should be assessed to determine whether modernisation, emergency preparedness in the they should be designed to withstand the cli- power supply sector and dam safety. It may also mate change projected to occur within their include support for flood protection and protec- lifetime or on the basis of today’s climate but tion against landslides and avalanches, and steps in such a way that necessary adaptations can to ensure sound land use planning that reduces be retrofitted. risks.

Source: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate 94 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway the normal lifetime of such installations, large- The Ministry of Trade and Industry is respon- scale reinvestment and upgrading will be needed sible for drawing up a future-oriented business in the years ahead. Adaptation will be a key ele- policy for all policy areas of importance for value ment of this work, and power lines must be creation. A knowledge-based business sector is designed to withstand the projected loads in dif- necessary to maximise value creation, and this ferent types of extreme weather. Safe operation needs to be further developed. The allocations to and maintenance under all weather conditions is Innovation Norway, SIVA (the Industrial Develop- another vital consideration. Routeing of power ment Corporation of Norway) and the Research lines is important, since appropriate choices can Council of Norway are among the largest adminis- reduce climate-related risks and facilitate control tered by the ministry. One of the areas that the and maintenance. The directorate expects all ministry emphasises in its dialogue with Innova- transmission system operators to place sufficient tion Norway is environment and energy, and Inno- weight on risk and vulnerability assessments in vation Norway is extensively involved in environ- their planning. mentally relevant networking activities. More knowledge is needed about how much Climate change could alter much of the basic the climate is expected to change before appropri- framework for parts of the Norwegian business ate requirements can be set during licensing pro- sector. For the primary industries and other cedures and in other contexts. The Water industries that are closely linked to the natural Resources and Energy Directorate already resource base, it could necessitate considerable imposes strict requirements for impact assess- restructuring. Restructuring will also be neces- ments, but will focus more on climate change in sary if climate change imposes new requirements connection with licensing procedures, impact with respect to siting or development. The Norwe- assessments and power system studies. R&D on gian Public Roads Administration has already the challenges associated with climate change is changed the manuals setting out conditions for being conducted under the auspices of the direc- road construction, and contractors will have to fol- torate, including studies of the hydrological low the new rules. The technical regulations for impacts, climate-related challenges in the power buildings may have to be amended to address the sector, changes in the frequency of lightning, the higher risk of water damage and decay, imposing significance of changes in sea level and storm fresh requirements on the industry. Climate surges, the frequency of storms and the effects of change could also make restructuring necessary hurricane-force winds, icing on power lines, ice for local businesses. This applies particularly to loads on dams and the effects of slide-generated outdoor industries, which could be forced to waves on dams. replace their existing activities with new ones. The legislation administered by the Directo- This requires considerable expertise and innova- rate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning tive capacity, and may be a challenging task in include safety requirements for electricity infra- small communities with a poorly diversified econ- structure, which in practice mean that installa- omy. tions must be designed to withstand future cli- Climate change intensifies the need for knowl- matic conditions. edge-based business development, and restruc- turing that takes climate change into account will require research and innovation. Since the busi- 8.6 The business sector ness sector has an important role to play in adap- tation, it is important to promote its involvement Climate change will have impacts on the Norwe- in public-sector research and innovation efforts. gian business sector. Because the sector is so var- One way of encouraging businesses to engage in ied, there will also be wide variations in how cli- innovation and knowledge development is mate change affects earning power and profitabil- through intellectual property rights such as pat- ity. The sector also has a vital role to play in Nor- ents. Climate-resilient business development will way’s transition to a low-emission economy and also require new types of knowledge. For exam- through the introduction of production methods ple, if new, climate-resilient activities are being and equipment that are adapted to a changed cli- planned as part of a local restructuring process, mate. In addition, the sector supplies products information tailored to local needs about how cli- and services that will play a large part in deter- mate change will affect that particular geographi- mining Norwegian society’s resilience to climate cal area will be valuable. If sectors that supply for change. example infrastructure services are to do so sus- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 95 Climate change adaptation in Norway tainably, they will need reliable data on factors ity for sustainability through their own activities such as precipitation patterns and sea level rise. and operations. This means that businesses must While the authorities have an important be able meet the adaptation requirements responsibility for providing information tailored to imposed by the authorities on the one hand, and different needs and a suitable overall framework, on the other take an active approach by ensuring companies themselves must also take responsibil- that their investments are climate-resilient. Thus ity for climate-resilient development of their own the impacts of climate change on society’s infra- activities. A good dialogue between businesses structure in the broadest sense will also have con- and the authorities is essential. In Norway dia- sequences for the business sector. The individual logue between these two parties is already well company must consider how disruption, for exam- established, and it is important to ensure that it ple of the transport system, will affect its activities also encompasses climate change. It is also impor- and as far as possible take the necessary meas- tant to adopt a precautionary approach to new ures to limit the consequences. business opportunities created by climate change, The report Adapting to a changing climate especially in North Norway. (NOU 2010: 10) points out how important it is for On 16 December 2011, Norway adopted the industries themselves to ensure competence- Act relating to supply chain preparedness, which building and training to meet changes in require- emphasises the need for cooperation between the ments in different areas. Knowledge-building will public authorities and the business sector in the also be necessary for some branches, for example field of civil protection and emergency planning. consultancy firms that often advise municipalities This legislation also applies to problems that may on planning and will need expertise if they are to arise as a result of climate change. Issues related assist municipalities to include climate change to climate change have therefore been raised in adaptation in planning processes. the ongoing emergency planning cooperation The travel and tourism industry is one of those between the public authorities and the business that will be strongly affected by climate change. sector. There are several emergency response Considerable restructuring will be necessary to organisations under the auspices of the Ministry take advantage of changed conditions and avoid of Trade and Industry, and the Council for Emer- negative effects of climate change as far as possi- gency Preparedness in the Construction Sector in ble. Successful adaptation in this sector will particular has devoted considerable attention to depend on better assessments of how climate this topic. change will affect global travel patterns, since this Cooperation between the authorities and the is a global industry and the Norwegian tourism business sector is also important for community market may be affected by climate change in and local business development. Regional plan- other parts of the world. In spite of the predictions ning is an example of current cooperation in this of higher precipitation, shorter duration of snow context. Adaptation needs to be made an integral cover, melting of glaciers and more rapid spread part of the relevant dialogue between the local of forest and woodland in mountainous areas and and regional authorities and the business sector. cultural landscapes, Norway’s geographical loca- The business sector itself also has an inde- tion is still likely to make it an exotic and attractive pendent responsibility to integrate climate change tourist destination. Furthermore, drier summers adaptation into its activities. For example deci- in southern Norway may make this region more sions are constantly being made on long-term attractive to summer tourists. investments, such as the siting and design of com- Climate change may also lead to considerable mercial buildings. The business sector also has a changes in national travel patterns, particularly in wider social mission that requires climate change winter, when the direction of traffic flows will be to be taken into account. This includes a wide strongly influenced by access to stable snow con- range of businesses, for example the construction ditions. Such changes will have considerable industry, contractors and consultants supplying effects on tourism. In order for the sector to be services for general municipal planning. Although able to plan for sustainable adaptation, capacity it is the authorities that determine the framework needs assessments will have to be made for all conditions, businesses must also take responsibil- parts of the tourist industry. 96 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway

Box 8.7 Sustainable Destination Norway 2025 Sustainable Destination Norway was one of – the links between climate-friendly food and three research projects funded by the Ministry sustainable tourism. of Trade and Industry and the Research Council of Norway in the period 2008–11 with the aim of Modelling showed that, all in all, an ambitious strengthening the knowledge base for policy climate policy can be combined with rising prof- development for a more sustainable tourism itability in the tourism industry and an increase industry in Norway. Vestlandsforsking was the in the number of foreign tourists visiting Nor- main research institute involved. Sustainable way. An important point made in the final report Destination Norway developed a computer was that under all the different global socioeco- model to run scenarios based on research in nomic development and climate policy scenarios three areas: that were used, both profitability and the num- – dialogue processes to develop sustainable ber of international tourist arrivals will double. tourism, However, the report pointed out that stronger – the links between climate policy, climate policy measures will be needed to reach the goal change and tourism, of a more sustainable tourism industry. 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 97 Climate change adaptation in Norway

9 The Arctic

The temperature in the Arctic is rising faster than 9.1 Climate change in the Arctic in any other part of the world. Moreover, the phys- ical environment associated with snow and ice is In recent decades, temperatures in the Arctic particularly sensitive to a warmer climate. Climate have been rising twice as fast as the global aver- change is therefore the most serious threat facing age. The annual mean temperature in the region Arctic species and ecosystems. For the same rea- is 2 °C higher than it was a hundred years ago, sons, communities that depend on the living and data indicate that the summer temperatures resources of the Arctic are also vulnerable to cli- are now higher than at any time during the past mate change. Climate change adaptation in the 2000 years. Arctic will therefore entail special challenges. As The rising temperatures are causing rapid, far- the sea ice melts, the Arctic is becoming more reaching changes to the physical environment in accessible for new activities such as oil and gas the Arctic. The transition to an ice-free Arctic extraction, mining, shipping, fisheries and tour- Ocean appears to be occurring much faster than ism. This can open up new opportunities, but may the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also exacerbate negative impacts on the environ- (IPCC) projected in its Fourth Assessment Report ment and on traditional ways of using the living in 2007. The summer sea ice cover has been resources of the Arctic. Climate change may also reduced by about a third in recent years com- intensify the negative impacts of other pressures pared with the average for the normal period such as ocean acidification and pollutants on the 1979–2000. In September 2012, the extent of the Arctic environment. In the Government’s view, sea ice reached the lowest level since measure- management of the natural environment in the ments started, and was 48 % under the average for Arctic must therefore be based on an ecosystem the period 1979–2000. The extent and duration of approach that will make it possible to adapt man- snow coverage have also decreased significantly. agement to rapid changes in the climate, environ- The estimated annual loss of mass from the mental conditions and human activity. An Greenland ice sheet has quadrupled since 2000, approach of this kind is intended both to facilitate and the loss of mass from other ice caps and gla- value creation through sustainable use and to ciers in the Arctic is also increasing sharply. maintain the high environmental value of the Arc- The Svalbard archipelago has also experi- tic environment and its biodiversity. enced rapidly rising temperatures, combined with This chapter discusses climate change in the a rise in precipitation. Since the mid-1960s, the Arctic and the specific challenges that need to be average temperature in Longyearbyen has risen addressed in Norway’s most northerly waters and by 0.9 °C per decade. The extent of the sea ice has in Svalbard, where climate change is already alter- been showing a clear downward trend both in the ing environmental conditions and patterns of Barents Sea and in the Fram Strait between Sval- activity. The chapter also gives an account of Arc- bard and Greenland since satellite monitoring tic cooperation on the climate and climate change, began in 1979. Svalbard’s glaciers are also retreat- and the Government’s efforts to strengthen the ing rapidly and their mass balance is negative. In knowledge base for climate change adaptation in addition, the temperature of the permafrost is ris- the Arctic. Issues relating to mainland Norway ing. and to Norway’s sea areas more generally are dis- Because of polar amplification, it is expected cussed in other chapters of the white paper. that temperatures in the Arctic will continue to rise twice as fast as the global average. The esti- mated rate of temperature rise in Svalbard and the northern Barents Sea is far higher than for areas further south. There are also considerable smaller-scale variations. For Svalbard, the pro- 98 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway jected rise in mean air temperature ranges from with the sea ice are particularly vulnerable to cli- about 3 °C in the southwestern part of the archi- mate change, and may disappear from larger and pelago to 8 °C in the northeastern part towards larger areas of the Arctic. the end of the present century. For the sea, the Rising temperatures will result in a northward projected temperature rises are more moderate: shift in the distribution of species and habitats. sea temperature in the northern Barents Sea is The Arctic species and habitats found in the projected to rise by 2–3 °C. It is very uncertain region now are expected to be gradually displaced how fast the Arctic sea ice will retreat, but both by species and habitats that are currently found modelling results and the rapid reduction in the further south. The tundra areas north of the Arc- area and volume of the ice indicate that the Arctic tic treeline are some of the terrestrial habitats that seas may be almost ice-free in summer by the are expected to undergo the most dramatic middle of this century. Melting of the Greenland changes. ice sheet and other ice caps and glaciers is Marine ecosystems will change as the sea tem- expected to accelerate, but it is uncertain just how perature rises. Higher temperatures and the rapid the process will be. The thawing of perma- retreat of the sea ice will allow more southerly frost and the reduction in snow coverage are also species to move into Arctic sea areas, and purely expected to continue, and ocean circulation and Arctic species will meet growing competition, weather patterns may change considerably. greater predation pressure and a higher risk of Future climate change in the Arctic will disease and parasites. Coastal waters and conti- depend on processes such as melting of sea ice nental shelf areas along the margins of the Arctic and land ice, and changes in ocean currents and Ocean will be ice-free for longer and longer peri- atmospheric circulation, which govern the trans- ods, which will be a serious threat to the drift ice port of heat from further south. Some of these ecosystem and the species it supports. Areas of processes involve positive feedback loops, which suitable habitat for the polar bear, ringed seal, wal- can cause changes to accelerate. Sea ice melt and rus, narwhal, little auk, ivory gull, polar cod and a the release of methane (a greenhouse gas) from number of other species that are part of the mar- melting permafrost are the best known of these ginal ice zone ecosystem are expected to be feedback mechanisms. Other mechanisms, such greatly reduced. The distribution of commercially as changes in cloud cover as the areas of open sea important fish species such as cod, haddock and become larger, and cooling of the surface water as capelin may change. Warmer water and a reduc- a result of faster melting of the Greenland ice tion in ice cover may result in larger quantities of sheet, may moderate the warming process. Many phyto- and zooplankton, but there is no guarantee of these mechanisms are difficult to incorporate that fish and other animals will be able to make into climate models, which adds to the uncer- use of the greater availability of food. tainty of climate projections for this region. Cli- On land, the Arctic treeline is expected to shift mate change in the Arctic and the processes gov- northwards and upwards, a trend that is already erning it also have major implications for climate apparent today. In certain parts of the Arctic, the change and sea level rise at global level, which treeline is expected to move as much as 500 kilo- adds to the uncertainty of projections of future metres northwards in the course of this century. global change. Within the same time frame, half of the current area of tundra in the Arctic may be replaced by forest and scrub, which would entail major 9.2 Impacts and adaptation needs changes in species diversity. Since Arctic land areas border on the Arctic Impacts on the Arctic environment Ocean in the north, some Arctic species and eco- The rapid temperature rise in the Arctic is systems may disappear completely in the longer expected to intensify many of the same types of term, or become restricted to isolated Arctic impacts that are expected to become apparent fur- islands north of the mainland. Animals and plants ther south. Many species and habitats that are on isolated islands are particularly vulnerable characteristic of the Arctic today are expected to because it is more difficult for them to shift north- have difficulties in adapting to climate change, wards to stay in the same climate zone as the tem- both because of the rapid pace of change and perature rises. At present, the sea ice functions as because many species will be unable to move fur- a bridge that animals can follow between Arctic ther north to find new areas of habitat with a suita- islands or between islands and the mainland. As ble climate. Species and ecosystems associated the ice disappears, more or less continuous popu- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 99 Climate change adaptation in Norway lations of species such as the Arctic fox, reindeer mental value of the Arctic environment and its bio- and polar bear may be split into much more iso- diversity. lated and therefore more vulnerable populations. In the Government’s view, the integrated man- This could make isolated Arctic archipelagos such agement plans for the Barents Sea–Lofoten area as Svalbard even more important in future conser- and the Norwegian Sea will be very important vation strategies, but could also make conserva- tools for overall adaptation of the framework for tion efforts more challenging. activities in Arctic seas to changes in the climate, Changes in snow cover will have impacts on environmental conditions and patterns of activity. soils, vegetation and the fauna. Some migratory The management plans are already contributing species in the Arctic, such as geese, many benefit to an integrated, resilient management regime when the snow melts earlier in spring. On the that incorporates climate change considerations. other hand, if increasing amounts of winter rain A range of measures to protect particularly valua- result in more frequent formation of a hard ice ble areas and reduce pressure on the environment crust, this may have serious impacts on animals and the risk of accidents and pollution have such as reindeer that are dependent on digging already been adopted within the framework of the through the snow to find food in winter. This phe- management plans, in response to the observed nomenon is already being observed more fre- and expected increase in the level of activity in our quently in Svalbard and elsewhere in the Arctic. northern seas. If climate change is already putting pressure Human activity in northern sea areas is on species, for example through habitat loss or expected to increase in future, and it is uncertain poorer food supplies, they will be less resilient to what cumulative environmental effects we can other pressures, both external pressures such as expect on ecosystems as a result of activities in long-range pollutants, UV radiation and ocean various sectors, climate change and ocean acidifi- acidification, and those caused by local activities, cation. The pace of climate change and ocean acid- such as harvesting, local pollution, land develop- ification is higher than previously expected. This ment and disturbance. Climate change may also may result in more marked cumulative environ- intensify other pressures, either directly or indi- mental effects in the years ahead, and means that rectly. The declining sea ice cover is making it is important to introduce management meas- marine and coastal waters in the Arctic more ures that increase the resilience of ecosystems. accessible for fisheries, maritime transport, cruise Any pressure on an ecosystem must be assessed ships and oil and gas activities. In certain areas, a on the basis of the cumulative environmental reduction in ice cover may make it easier to start effects on the ecosystem now or in the future, tak- mining activities and extract minerals. The ing into account the structure and functioning of increase in activity levels may lead to more har- the ecosystem. This principle applies in the Arctic vesting, infrastructure development, habitat loss as well. Cumulative effects must be assessed for and fragmentation, the spread of invasive alien each ecosystem component, for species and habi- species, disturbance of the fauna, and pollution tats, and for the ecosystem as a whole. The princi- and the risk of pollution. It is therefore essential to ple that cumulative effects on the ecosystem must set limits for activities in the Arctic that will keep be assessed underlies the management plans for the risk level and cumulative environmental Norwegian sea areas, the Svalbard Environmental effects on species and ecosystems within reasona- Protection Act and the Nature Diversity Act. The ble bounds. Marine Resources Act takes the cumulative envi- ronmental effects of utilisation of living marine resources into account, and requires the authori- Ecosystem-based management ties to ensure that they are managed sustainably. The speed of climate change in the Arctic high- lights the need for an ecosystem-based approach to management of the Arctic environment. This 9.3 Adapting nature management in will make it possible to adapt the management Svalbard to climate change regime and environmental standards to rapid changes in the climate, environmental conditions Climate change will pose considerable challenges and human activity. An approach of this kind is for nature management in Svalbard: it will have intended both to facilitate value creation through major impacts on the species, ecosystems and sustainable use and to maintain the high environ- landscapes Norway is seeking to protect, and may result in more traffic and pressure on the islands 100 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway from various types of activities. The distribution of mate change. This applies especially to species species will change. Areas that have been impor- that are heavily dependent on ice-covered areas of tant for ice-dependent species may lose their value sea, such as the polar bear and Arctic seals, since as habitats, while other areas become more their distribution may change considerably and important. Thus, the distribution of species and become much more restricted. Another factor it ecosystems in space and time will be constantly may be necessary to consider is the increasing changing, as will their vulnerability to local activ- isolation and consequent vulnerability of some ity, and the authorities need mechanisms that species and populations as the loss of sea ice make it possible to adapt the management regime weakens links between the Svalbard islands and to this situation. between Svalbard and Arctic islands and mainland The comprehensive protection regime and areas further east. These considerations must be strict environmental rules set out in the Svalbard incorporated into species and habitat manage- Environmental Protection Act and regulations ment in Svalbard. under the Act are a good starting point, because Most animal species in Svalbard are protected, intact ecosystems in themselves make nature but limited hunting and trapping is permitted. more resilient to the impacts of climate change. It Game species include reindeer, Arctic fox, ptarmi- is therefore important to maintain the current pro- gan and certain seabird species. It may be neces- tection regime. A management regime clearly sary to adjust quotas and hunting seasons to take cannot prevent loss of ice cover and rapidly rising account of the vulnerability of these species to cli- temperatures from altering the physical condi- mate change. tions and species’ habitats. But it can help to Extensive research, monitoring and mapping ensure that the changing climate and the possibil- of species and ecosystems in Svalbard is in pro- ity that species and habitats will become more vul- gress, and results are reported through the envi- nerable are taken into account in local activities. ronmental monitoring programme for Svalbard Important measures have already been intro- and Jan Mayen (MOSJ), which includes several duced in Svalbard in response to the decline in the indicators of impacts of climate change in Sval- extent of the sea ice, which has made some areas bard. The monitoring programme needs to be fur- more accessible and exposed vulnerable species ther developed so that changes can be identified and habitats to more traffic and human activity. To at an early stage and the management regime can reduce the risk of a shipwreck or grounding caus- be adjusted as necessary. Knowledge of popula- ing serious pollution or the loss of human life, tion trends for vulnerable species such as the ships sailing within the protected areas of Sval- polar bear is currently inadequate. To make it pos- bard (which cover most of the territorial waters) sible to implemented targeted measures, it is also are now prohibited from carrying heavy bunker important to identify areas that will become either oil, and cruise ships that call in the nature more vulnerable or more important as habitats for reserves in the eastern part of Svalbard may not vulnerable species as the climate changes. carry more than 200 passengers. In addition, com- pulsory pilotage is being introduced, and charting of the waters around Svalbard is being improved. 9.4 Settlements and human activity in Climate change adaptation is one of the elements Svalbard: impacts of climate of the management plans that are being drawn up change and adaptation needs for the protected areas in Svalbard. The protected areas cover 65 % of the land area of the islands and In Svalbard, as in mainland Norway, climate 87 % of the territorial waters. Management plans change may increase the risk of landslides, ava- for these areas will therefore be an important tool lanches and flooding, and result in more frequent for adapting the management regime to a chang- and more severe extreme weather events, sea ing climate. Climate change is expected to make it level rise and storm surges. Infrastructure such as easier for alien species to survive and spread in roads, buildings and port facilities will be vulnera- Svalbard. An action plan to prevent the introduc- ble to such climate-related events. Only about tion and spread of invasive alien species in Sval- 2500 people are resident in Svalbard, and infra- bard is being drawn up. structure is limited to a few areas, including the In the same way as in mainland Norway, it will mines, that are not linked together by roads or be necessary to strengthen instruments to safe- power lines. Their isolation may make the settle- guard threatened species and habitats that may ments more vulnerable to climate-related events come under increasing pressure as a result of cli- that disrupt critical infrastructure. Heavy rainfall 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 101 Climate change adaptation in Norway in winter has already begun to occur more fre- and heating infrastructure, and buildings. Cli- quently in Svalbard, and in winter 2012 this mate-related events may put even more pressure resulted in a slush flow in Longyearbyen that dam- on the already vulnerable critical infrastructure in aged the road system. The active layer (the soil the Arctic, creating a need for upgrading and layer above the permafrost that thaws each sum- adaptation. mer) is becoming deeper and deeper, which Research and the travel and tourism industry makes the ground unstable and is a threat to are important sectors in Svalbard, and will be buildings and other infrastructure. Coastal ero- affected by climate change. Even today, the sion may also become a growing problem for increasing length of periods without sea ice in buildings and cultural heritage sites near the summer is making areas more accessible to shoreline in Svalbard, since wave action will cruise ships. At the same time, an earlier spring increase as sea ice is lost. See box 3.8 in Chapter thaw and a reduction in ice cover on the fjords has 3.6 for more about climate change and Svalbard’s resulted in a shorter season for snowmobile-based cultural heritage. The Governor of Svalbard is tourism, and restricted the areas available for revising the risk and vulnerability analysis for such activities. These trends are expected to con- Svalbard, which dates from 2009. The work is tinue. There will be less opportunity for visitors to being carried out in close cooperation with Long- observe ice-dependent species such as walruses, yearbyen Local Administration and other mem- ringed seals and polar bears, and this may make bers of the emergency planning council. Possible some tourism products less attractive. On the social consequences of climate change are an other hand, new species that move into the area, important element of this analysis, which is such as whale species that are commonly seen fur- expected to be completed in spring 2013. Climate ther south today, may partly compensate for this. change considerations must also be incorporated Svalbard also has other important qualities such into land-use and general planning processes in as its wild landscapes and unspoiled nature, which Svalbard. This work is in progress. During the are likely to make it an attractive destination even most recent revision of the land-use plan for Long- with a warmer climate. Thus the travel and tour- yearbyen, adaptation to changed conditions, ism industry will have to adapt its activities to a sit- including landslides, avalanches and flooding, was uation in which many species are under stress as one of the topics that was highlighted. The guide- a result of climate change, which means that visi- lines on land-use planning under the Svalbard tors will have to show special consideration, and Environmental Protection Act are now to be certain areas will need to be shielded from distur- revised, starting early in 2013, to include a bance and traffic to maintain their value as refer- detailed description of how climate change consid- ence areas for climate research. The industry may erations are to be taken into account for the differ- also have to comply with new and stricter environ- ent land-use planning areas in Svalbard. Input on mental standards. how this should be done should be obtained in Research in Svalbard is generating important close dialogue with relevant actors. Adaptation of knowledge that will be valuable for projections of land-use management in Svalbard to climate future changes in the climate, ice cover and envi- change will require enhanced expertise and ronmental conditions. This is key information for knowledge. An important task for the Governor of planning activities and climate change adaptation Svalbard is to provide guidance for Longyearbyen both within the region and in a wider context. Local Administration and other bodies responsi- Focusing on climate research in the Arctic, includ- ble for planning in Svalbard. Staffing for planning ing Svalbard, is thus an essential part of climate and mapping functions at the Governor’s office change adaptation. However, climate change also has been strengthened in recent years. affects research activities themselves, in a num- Much of the infrastructure in Longyearbyen – ber of ways. Much of the research being carried roads, bridges, buildings – was constructed in the out in Svalbard is climate related, and the opportu- 1970s. Thawing of the permafrost makes the nity to study climate change in the Arctic is one of ground unstable and is a threat to buildings and the drivers behind the growing interest in other structures, and this combined with variable research and teaching activities in the archipel- maintenance standards, an increase in the popula- ago. The great socio-economic value attached to tion and a generally higher activity level resulting this research is influencing the willingness to in more wear and tear, means that Longyearbyen invest in research infrastructure and carry out now has a maintenance backlog for important and projects and field work in Svalbard. However, in critical infrastructure such as roads, electricity the long term the retreat of the sea ice may con- 102 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway siderably restrict opportunities for research on medium-sized helicopter to two large helicopters. processes, ecosystems and species associated In addition, a new search and rescue vessel of a with the sea ice. suitable size for the new helicopters will be availa- Svalbard and the protected areas of the archi- ble from 2014. This will strengthen search and pelago are not much affected by local activity. This rescue capacity in Svalbard and nearby sea areas. is an important factor, because it makes it possible Since 2010, the Norwegian Space Centre has to distinguish between the impacts of climate been running a project to test satellite technology change and those of other pressures. The large to monitor maritime traffic in northern waters. nature reserves in eastern Svalbard are particu- Moreover, in 2009 the International Maritime larly valuable as undisturbed reference areas for Organization (IMO) introduced obligatory long- research on the impacts of climate change on Arc- range identification and tracking of cargo and pas- tic species and ecosystems, and it is important to senger ships at sea (LRIT), with global coverage. manage these areas in a way that will maintain This means that Norway will from now on have their intended function as reference areas. access to better information on maritime activity Research field work must, like tourism and fisher- in Arctic waters, which will also be valuable for ies activities, be adapted to an environment where search and rescue operations. From 1 July 2012, many species are under stress as a result of cli- the Pilotage Act and associated regulations were mate change, and special caution and protection made applicable to Svalbard. This means that the are needed. rules relating to the state pilotage service, com- The warmer climate and loss of sea ice are pulsory pilotage and pilot exemption certificates also resulting in changes in activity patterns in the also apply in the waters around Svalbard. Compul- waters around Svalbard. Fisheries activity has sory pilotage is being introduced gradually in the already increased. Cruise traffic has also grown period 2012 to 2015. It has applied to coal vessels considerably in recent decades, and activities to and from the Svea mine since 2012, and from have expanded to larger and larger parts of the 2013 includes large passenger vessels (length 150 archipelago, partly because the extent of the sea metres or more). From 2015, the rules for the ice has declined. A continued increase in the vol- waters around Svalbard will be the same as for ume of shipping, both cruise ships and fishing mainland Norway, meaning that vessels of a vessels, around Svalbard and in the northern part length of 70 metres or more and passenger ves- of the Barents Sea is to be expected. Such sels of a length of 24 metres or more must use a changes in activity patterns may make it neces- pilot when sailing inside the baselines. Smaller sary to upgrade fisheries inspection, maritime size limits apply to vessels carrying dangerous safety, oil spill preparedness and response, and cargo. search and rescue capacity in these waters. The Governor of Svalbard, the Norwegian Coastal Administration and the Norwegian Coast Guard 9.5 Climate change adaptation and may all need additional resources and capacity as Arctic cooperation a result. Most of the Arctic has already been divided The Arctic states, particularly the five states that into search and rescue regions (SAR regions), but border on the Arctic Ocean, share important chal- in certain areas the division of responsibility is lenges and interests when it comes to addressing unclear or inappropriate. Norway, Denmark climate change and the higher level of human (Greenland) and Russia have therefore agreed on activity in the Arctic. This applies not least to envi- a more suitable delimitation of our SAR regions. ronmental problems and the framework for activi- Norway’s SAR region has been extended, so that ties in areas where use of natural resources and it now includes the area north of Svalbard and to maritime transport will become possible as the the North Pole, and its border with the Russian melting ice makes them more accessible. SAR region has been moved slightly further east. There is effective, binding international coop- This gives a natural division of responsibility eration in the Arctic, which promotes environmen- between the various countries, and reflects their tal protection and sound resource management. actual search and rescue capacity. In response to Even though parts of the Arctic Ocean are cov- the increase in activity and the wider geographical ered by ice, the Law of the Sea applies fully in this area of responsibility, it has been decided that the region, as it does in other sea areas around the Governor of Svalbard’s helicopter service is to be world. The international legal framework for all expanded from one large helicopter and one activity in the Arctic Ocean is set out in the Con- 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 103 Climate change adaptation in Norway vention on the Law of the Sea, which clarifies a rapidly changing Arctic. It will develop a range questions relating to jurisdiction in the area, as of Arctic scenarios for the period up to 2050 as a well as rights and duties. Under the Law of the basis for adaptation strategies and planning. It Sea the coastal states bordering the Arctic Ocean consists of three elements: identifying relevant have special duties and rights in the area. The information from existing reports and projects; melting ice and expected increase in activity in the identifying other relevant work on adaptation; and Arctic will make cooperation on the implementa- assessing models and scenarios that can improve tion of existing instruments and the development projections of climate change and other factors of of supplementary rules in various areas essential. change in the Arctic. The work will be concluded New regulatory measures are being developed to in 2017. meet growing needs, within the framework of The Arctic Resilience Report is a flagship pro- international law. ject for the Swedish chairmanship of the Arctic Although various actors may have differing, Council. It is focusing on the risk of reaching tip- legitimate interests in the north, the Arctic is cur- ping points beyond which there may be sudden rently a peaceful region in which states display a shifts in Arctic ecosystems and communities, and willingness to cooperate and to resolve conten- on resilience to such shifts. Norway is repre- tious issues in accordance with the principles of sented on the steering committee and is taking international law. part at expert level. The project is to be concluded The Arctic Council is the most important in 2015. arena for dealing with common challenges in the Ecosystem-based management of Arctic seas Arctic. It is the only political circumpolar coopera- is a priority cooperation topic for the Arctic Coun- tion forum at government level, and plays a lead- cil, and is also an important approach in climate ing role in generating and communicating knowl- change adaptation. The Ecosystem Approach edge about climate change in the Arctic. Environ- Expert Group is co-chaired by Norway. So far, it mental issues are a central part of its work, par- has focused on discussing concepts and terminol- ticularly assessments of environmental status, cli- ogy for ecosystem-based management, and on mate change, sustainable development and mapping different marine ecosystems in the Arc- environmental protection as activity increases. tic. The expert group will recommend guidelines The Arctic Council has published a number of for ecosystem-based management to the ministe- reports that synthesise and assess new knowl- rial meeting in 2013. The Arctic Council is also edge on climate change in the Arctic. In 2011, surveying areas of particular ecological and cul- reports presenting the results of the Snow, Water, tural value in the Arctic. The results will be used Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) assess- as a basis for assessing whether any of these areas ment were published, bringing together the latest will need special protection when the volume of knowledge about the changing state of the cry- shipping in the Arctic rises. The application of eco- osphere. The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitor- system-based management is also one of the basic ing Program (CBMP) is building up a coordinated principles that is to be followed in developing a monitoring system with a strong focus on the revised Arctic Council Arctic Marine Strategic impacts of climate change. The Arctic Biodiversity Plan, which is scheduled to be ready for the 2015 Assessment, a major review of the status and ministerial meeting. trends of Arctic biodiversity and projections for Specific cooperation agreements are also the future, will shortly be published. The impacts being negotiated under the Arctic Council to of climate change are one of the key topics in this address the challenges posed by the increase in review as well. The project Vulnerability and traffic and activity in Arctic waters. The Agree- Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arctic ment on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Mari- (VACCA), also under the Arctic Council, has con- time Search and Rescue in the Arctic, which was ducted and published an initial scoping study. signed during the ministerial meeting in Nuuk in Two recently started projects are intended to 2011, was the first legally binding agreement to be improve understanding of climate change in the negotiated under the auspices of the Arctic Coun- Arctic and how climate change together with cil. During the Nuuk ministerial, the foreign min- other drivers and pressures will change the natu- isters also decided to establish a task force co- ral environment and human society in the future. chaired by Norway, the US and Russia to develop Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic an international instrument on Arctic marine oil (AACA) is a Norwegian initiative that is intended pollution preparedness and response. The pur- to enable more informed and timely adaptation in pose of the initiative is to simplify procedures for 104 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway international assistance in the event of acute pollu- to climate change in the Arctic and its impacts. tion in the Arctic. Negotiations on the instrument For example, the Norwegian Polar Institute, the have been finalised, and will according to plan be Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Insti- signed at the foreign minister meeting of the Arc- tute of Marine Research run research and tic Council in spring 2013. The agreement should national monitoring programmes that cover land, make it easier for Norway to draw on relevant the sea ice, the atmosphere and the oceans. The emergency resources in the event of serious oil Polar Institute’s research activities are designed spills in our waters. to improve the knowledge base in fields where the The IMO is working on the development of a environmental authorities have direct manage- Polar Code of rules for ships operating in polar ment responsibilities in the polar regions. The waters. This will set out specific requirements for main priorities are climate change, ocean acidifi- vessels and crews operating in these waters, cation, hazardous substances and biodiversity. Cli- including ship design, equipment, operations, mate research is coordinated by the Polar Insti- environmental protection and damage limitation. tute’s Centre for Ice, Climate and Ecosystems Norway considers it important to ensure that ship (ICE). The Centre’s activities include studies of design and equipment are suitable for operations the physical processes that control the behaviour in polar waters and that environmental considera- of the Arctic sea ice. Another priority is research tions are taken properly into account. on Arctic ecosystems, focusing on indigenous ice- Climate change in the Arctic and the High associated species, which are some of the species North is also on the agenda of the Barents cooper- that are most seriously threatened by future cli- ation and Norway’s bilateral cooperation with Rus- mate change. There is also extensive research on sia. Cooperation on ecosystem-based manage- the Antarctic climate and the impacts that climate ment and joint environmental monitoring arrange- change in Antarctica may have on the rest of the ments are important topics in environmental coop- world. The Polar Institute is also responsible for eration between Norway and Russia. As part of and runs the environmental monitoring pro- the environmental cooperation in the Barents gramme MOSJ, which collects and processes data region, a climate change action plan is being from the atmosphere, land and sea areas around drawn up, in which adaptation will be an impor- Svalbard and Jan Mayen. tant element. This work is being chaired by Nor- The Institute of Marine Research also runs way, and the plan is scheduled to be adopted in extensive research and monitoring activities and the course of 2013. provides advice relating to the impacts of climate The Government will seek to ensure that coop- change on the marine ecosystem. In the present eration in the Arctic Council and other interna- context, research in the northern Barents Sea and tional cooperation in the High North results in a the waters west and north of Svalbard on biodiver- joint knowledge base for climate change adapta- sity, alien species, the northward shift in distribu- tion and ecosystem-based management in the Arc- tion of commercial and other species, changes in tic. the plankton and benthic communities, changes in biological production (phyto- and zooplankton, fish, seals and whales) and changes in the resil- 9.6 Knowledge and competence ience of the ecosystem to environmental pres- building sures and stress is particularly relevant. Such comprehensive studies are made possible by the The rapid changes in the climate and environmen- annual joint Norwegian/Russian ecosystem sur- tal conditions in the Arctic make great demands veys, which look at the entire ecosystem «from on people’s knowledge and understanding of cli- physics to whales». mate change and its impacts. Such knowledge is Climate and environmental research in the an essential basis for management and planning in North has been considerably strengthened by the the Arctic, a region where activity levels are rising establishment of the Fram Centre (the High rapidly. In addition, knowledge about climate North Research Centre for Climate and the Envi- change in the region is important because ronment), which opened in Tromsø in 2010. This changes in the climate system in the Arctic have is an umbrella organisation, under which 20 Nor- major implications for global climate change and wegian institutions, including the Institute of for sea level rise. Marine Research and the Norwegian Polar Insti- Norwegian institutions have for many years tute, are cooperating to generate new knowledge. been involved in research and monitoring relating 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 105 Climate change adaptation in Norway

At the Fram Centre, research is being carried ledge with a view to promoting more commercial out on climate change and how it affects all ele- activity in the north. The Government intends to ments of Arctic ecosystems. One key research strengthen knowledge about climate change and topic is how indigenous peoples and local commu- the environmental impacts of increasing activity in nities can adapt as quickly and as effectively as the Arctic and the High North. Knowledge is possible to climate change in order to maintain important for the development of management their way of life and income base, and thus their strategies that can limit negative environmental local communities and indigenous culture. impacts and ensure that new commercial activities The Fram Centre is also preparing to launch are carried out within environmentally sound lim- an observatory for the ecological impacts of cli- its. This will be an essential element of an inte- mate change on the Arctic tundra, known as grated approach to developments in the High KOAT. The plan is for observations to be carried North. An initiative has been taken to develop a out in two areas – on the Varanger peninsula in framework for the environmental impacts of the far northeast of mainland Norway (in the sub- increasing activity in the Arctic and the High arctic zone), and in Svalbard (in the arctic zone). North as a new priority research area for the The purpose is to build up knowledge of climate- Fram Centre in the course of 2013. related changes that are relevant to the manage- The High North and the Arctic are an integral ment of these ecosystems. part of Norway’s national climate-related monitor- Other research at the Fram Centre is looking ing programmes. Norway collects large amounts into how climate change affects the spread of haz- of data through field work in Svalbard and ardous substances and studying the negative research cruises in the surrounding Arctic impacts of such pollutants on health and the envi- waters, in the Fram Strait and in the Barents Sea. ronment. Concentrations of about 30 different greenhouse Ocean acidification in Arctic waters is another gases and ozone-depleting substances are moni- important research topic at the Centre. The tored from the Zeppelin Observatory in Ny- impacts on ecosystems are being studied to pro- Ålesund in Svalbard. Ocean acidification is being vide a basis for estimating the economic conse- measured at different times of year in Norwegian quences as regards marine resources. One pro- waters, among other things along a transect from ject, a scoping study called «The Economics of Tromsø to Longyearbyen. The monitoring pro- Ocean Acidification», is a first step towards a grammes make it possible to measure climate multidisciplinary approach, which will provide a more integrated understanding of ocean acidifica- tion and related adaptation needs. Changes in the climate and marine environ- ment will result in new patterns of use of the Arc- tic that require new knowledge and innovative technology. Researchers are looking at the future of the Arctic and at economic and political aspects of change. There are also shipping-related pro- jects on topics such as traffic statistics, transport corridors, regulation of Arctic shipping and the detection, effects and clean-up of oil spills in ice- covered waters. Climate change will open up opportunities for more commercial activity in the High North and the Arctic. This applies particularly to oil and gas activity and maritime transport, but mining opera- tions may also be expanded as areas become more easily accessible and demand grows. The impacts of developments, disturbance, pollution and waste will depend on the scale of such activi- ties, their geographical distribution and what envi- ronmental standards are imposed. Figure 9.1 Ice research – scientists with an ice At national level, a number of initiatives have core been taken to build up competence and know- Photo: Ole Magnus Rapp/Aftenposten/NTB scanpix 106 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013 Climate change adaptation in Norway change in the Arctic and to predict future changes knowledge base for management of Svalbard’s and impacts that may entail a need for adaptation. natural environment is being developed and tai- A great deal of work is also being done in con- lored to the needs of the authorities. A key ele- nection with the management plans for the Bar- ment of this work is obtaining and tailoring the ents Sea–Lofoten area and the Norwegian Sea to knowledge needed as a basis for management collect and collate information that can provide a plans for the large protected areas in Svalbard. better basis for ecosystem-based management of Much of the work focuses on the impacts of cli- Norway’s northern sea areas. Much of the knowl- mate change, and is providing the authorities with edge generated is also important for adaptation of better knowledge of how climate change consider- the management regime to a changing climate ations can be incorporated into their work. and to the resulting increase in activity. The 2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 107 Climate change adaptation in Norway

10 Economic and administrative consequences

Climate change is one of the greatest threats ply, sewerage and drainage systems are costly. humanity is facing in the present century. However, unless the sewerage and drainage sys- Changes in temperature and precipitation pat- tems that are being replaced in Norwegian munic- terns and sea level rise are examples of factors ipalities today are designed for a changing cli- that will have increasing impacts on natural and mate, they may not have sufficient capacity to deal human systems. These changes will become grad- with future precipitation levels. This could reduce ually more marked as the atmospheric concentra- their lifetime and entail far greater costs for soci- tion of greenhouse gases rises, and greenhouse ety. Preventing negative impacts of climate gas emissions will have increasingly serious change through adaptation can reduce future impacts. Climate change may have significant costs. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation meas- adverse impacts on nature and on human life and ures must be evaluated on a case-to-case basis. health. The impacts in countries that are more vul- For a more detailed review of the costs and nerable than Norway may also influence interna- impacts of climate change in Norway, the reader tional politics and trade. This white paper is based is referred to the report Adapting to a changing on the impacts climate change is expected to have climate (NOU 2010: 10). in Norway. No assessment has been made of pos- The municipal, county and central government sible indirect impacts on Norway of the effects of authorities are responsible for taking into account climate change in other countries and regions. climatic conditions, including climate change, in Climate change may have serious adverse relevant areas of their activities. This is not a new impacts on natural and human systems. Changes in responsibility, but the present white paper high- precipitation patterns in recent decades have lights the authorities’ responsibility for taking cli- resulted in increasing damage to buildings and mate change into account and describes its sub- roads. In 2011, insurance companies paid out more stance more specifically. The measures proposed than NOK 2 billion in compensation for damage here, such as the development of a national centre caused by water entering buildings. However, the for climate services, will facilitate adaptation in increase in damage costs partly reflects the increase municipal planning processes. in the value of buildings and contents with the rising It is presumed that in many cases, the reduc- incomes and greater prosperity in Norway. tion in future damage costs will compensate for Society’s vulnerability is partly related to the additional costs involved in incorporating cli- important infrastructure such as roads, water sup- mate change considerations into planning pro- ply systems and buildings. Climate change will cesses. The development of climate services and increase the need for maintenance and upgrading improvement of the knowledge base, expertise, of key infrastructure in Norway. The climate is map data and other practical tools for municipal already changing, and inadequate maintenance of adaptation work will make it possible for the roads and water supply and sewerage systems municipalities and others to fulfil their responsibil- means that parts of Norwegian society are not ities without substantial economic and administra- well adapted to today’s climate. tive consequences. The combined measures and policy instru- ments proposed in this white paper constitute an active, coordinated approach to making Norway The Ministry of the Environment more resilient to climate change. A key purpose of recommends: climate change adaptation is to avoid future costs, for example related to accidents, disruption of that the Recommendation from the Ministry of operations and other damage caused by climate the Environment concerning climate change change. Measures such as flood, landslide and adaptation in Norway dated 7 May 2013 should be avalanche protection, and upgrading of water sup- submitted to the Storting. Meld. St. (white paper) to the Storting 33 (2012–2013) Report Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)

Published by: Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Climate change adaptation in Norway Internet address: www.government.no

Cover image: Oslo 20. juli 2012 Photographer: Trond J. Strøm

Printed by: DSS – 08/2015 Climate change adaptation in Norway

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