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Accelerating the Commercialisation of Emerging Renewable Energy Technologies

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Accelerating the Commercialisation of Emerging Renewable Energy Technologies Accelerating the commercialisation of emerging renewable energy technologies September 2014 The Carbon Trust wrote this report based on an analysis of primary and secondary sources. The Carbon Trust’s mission is to accelerate the move to a low carbon economy. It is a world leading expert on carbon reduction and clean technology. As a not-for-dividend group, it advises governments and leading companies around the world, reinvesting profits into its low carbon mission. Element Energy partnered with the Carbon Trust in preparing this report. Element Energy is a strategic energy consultancy specialising in the analysis of low-carbon energy in the transport, buildings and power sectors. The company provides a range of services to private and public sector clients, from techno- economic analysis and policy advice to managing the demonstration and deployment of low carbon technologies. The International Energy Agency’s Implementing Agreement on Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (IEA-RETD) provides a platform for enhancing international cooperation on policies, measures and market instruments to accelerate the global deployment of renewable energy technologies. IEA-RETD operates under the legal framework of the International Energy Agency. IEA- RETD aims to empower policy makers and energy market actors to make informed decisions by: (1) providing innovative policy options; (2) disseminating best practices related to policy measures and market instruments to increase deployment of renewable energy, and (3) increasing awareness of the short-, medium- and long-term impacts of renewable energy action and inaction. IEA- RETD member countries are Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Norway, and United Kingdom. For further information please visit: http://iea- retd.org or contact [email protected]. Contributing authors Ben Murphy, Tom Jennings, Mark Hughes, Michael Ashcroft, Olivia Burke, Nils Lehmann, Alastair Hope-Morley, Joris Besseling Acknowledgments The Carbon Trust would like to thank the many leading actors across the innovation supply chain for their contributions to this project, some of whom have requested to remain anonymous. Firstly to the project steering group, for their leading guidance: Lena Pedersen, Sascha van Rooijen, Lene Mostue, Foppe de Haan, and Kaoru Yamaguchi. Secondly to the distinguished interviewees, workshop participants and external reviewers, who contributed significant time and insights to this project: Rob Trezona, Rune Holmen, Emi Mizuno, Gard Hansen, Jonathan Bryers, Michael Paunescu, Christopher Knowles, Phil de Villiers, David Aitken, Benjamin Kott, David Ainsworth, Jamie Taylor, Peter Clusky, Hervé Touati, Aidan Marchand, Tobias Griesshaber, Andreas Reuter, Rob Brandon, Michael Kaplan, Vincent de Laleu, Peter Clusky, Alan Mortimer, Simon Pickett, Ed Simpson, Bruce Duguid, David Hÿtch, Paul Durrant, Laura Williamson, Rolf Golombek, Mads Greaker, Steve Lindenberg, Rob Aalbers, Pieter Boot, Tomas Skjølsvold. Thirdly, great thanks are due to James Bieoley and Luke Mann, who both made significant individual contributions to this project. Disclaimer The report is prepared by an independent consultant and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the IEA- RETD Member Countries. This publication should be cited as: IEA-RETD (2014), Accelerating the commercialisation of emerging renewable energy technologies (RE- InnovationChain), [Murphy, B., T. Jennings et al.; The Carbon Trust/Element Energy] IEA Implementing Agreement for Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (IEA-RETD), Utrecht, 2014. Table of Contents i. Executive Summary 1 Purpose 1 Challenges 2 Recommendations 2 Next steps 5 ii. Introduction: The current context for emerging renewables 6 What are emerging renewable energy technologies? 6 Historic progress in advanced renewable energy technologies 8 Challenges facing tomorrow’s innovation policy 12 iii. Method: ‘Finding the blueprint for the innovation policy of the future’ 17 Frameworks for policy and stakeholders 18 The approach of this project 22 1. Strategic innovation policy framework 27 Overview 28 Prioritising technology innovations to optimise government spend and catalyse action 30 Leveraging the funding of others to do more with less 34 Pursuing a portfolio of technologies and companies to compensate against naturally occurring dropouts 35 Complementing innovation policy with industrial policy to compete for international market share 37 Conclusions 41 2. The balance and integration of push and pull 42 Overview 43 Understanding the current national balance and trajectory of push and pull support – governments’ main cost levers 44 Balancing future push and pull policies in light of goals and technology characteristics 50 Conclusions 58 3. Push policy delivery 59 Overview 60 Existing market barriers to innovation 62 Targeting barriers with novel programme designs 63 Optimising collaboration to unlock national potential 64 The importance of demonstration programmes 70 Grant design, policy monitoring and assessment metrics 74 Conclusions 78 4. Pull policy delivery 79 Overview 80 The landscape of technology funders 81 Developing pull-style investment support relevant to corporate funders 83 Market framework price base support 89 Best practice design recommendations for maintaining certainty in market frameworks 92 Conclusions 98 5. Enabling policy delivery 99 Overview 100 Ecosystem creation 101 The role of enabling bodies within the innovation chain 103 Enabling policies should be used to maximise the impact of existing support policies 110 Conclusions 115 Conclusions and recommendations for future work 116 Next steps 117 Abbreviations 118 Units of Measure 119 References 120 Appendix i – new ideas for innovation policy 125 Overview 125 Appendix ii 129 Innovation policy frameworks 129 Figures Figure 1 Electricity generation by fuel type in RETD countries and renewable energy deployment leaders 8 Figure 2 PV price and performance trends 1995-2011 9 Figure 3 Significant growth in turbine size 11 Figure 4 Comparison of the change in regional dominance in the PV module production since 2000 13 Figure 5 Total global private investment for renewable energy by region 13 Figure 6 Global trends in renewable investment 2004-2012 14 Figure 7 Scroby Sands, UK offshore wind farm project costs 14 Figure 8 IEA estimated global annual gap in RD&D spending - against 2DS Scenario 15 Figure 9 Graphic representation of the categorisation used in this report for policy support types 19 Figure 10 Report framework showing the interaction of different stakeholders 21 Figure 11 The competitive advantage of the UK for different sub areas assessed in the TINAs 31 Figure 12 Canada’s marine renewable energy technology and expertise deployment plan 33 Figure 13 The dropout of firms in emerging industries as they form dominant designs 35 Figure 14 Formation of dominant design in onshore wind turbines in Germany 36 Figure 15 Aspects of value creation in global PV industry in 1995 and 2009 as a % of total 38 Figure 16 Analysis of the historical factors which have differentiated the markets in the U.S. and China 39 Figure 17 Analysis undertaken showing the potential for PV module manufacturing price parity through innovation and scale 40 Figure 18 Canada’s strategy to boost competitive advantage 41 Figure 19 Introduction to the main families of renewable energy policies by type in OECD countries 45 Figure 20 Historic IEA country RD&D spend on renewable energy technologies against additional deployment increases for wind and solar power 46 Figure 21 Distribution of the major policies to promote PV in four countries at the end of 2010 47 Figure 22 The estimated ratio of pull to push policies in Europe for 2010 and 2020, based on a bottom up assessment of member states’ deployment and support levels 47 Figure 23 Push and pull policies need to be balanced with national goals and complimented with industrial policies 52 Figure 24 The total spending on R&D, demonstration and market stimulation for PV in the USA, Australia, Japan and Italy 53 Figure 25 The impact of national deployment levels on historical residential PV system prices in Japan, Germany, China and the USA 54 Figure 26 Upstream and downstream job creation for wind and solar technologies 55 Figure 27 Analysis of the role of technology-push R&D funding and the development of national manufacturing production and capacity 56 Figure 28 Import and export trends of PV devices and wind turbines for USA, China, Germany and Japan 57 Figure 29 Destination of shipments for domestically manufactured solar PV in Japan 58 Figure 30 Relative share of global wind market by country, 1970-2012 61 Figure 31 A timeline summary of key landmarks in the history of wind power 73 Figure 32 Number of test fields and demonstrations of wind turbines in the EU and the USA 73 Figure 33 The main funders operating to deliver innovation finance to technology projects and to develop companies doing innovation 81 Figure 34 Average investment distribution breakdown for each renewable energy technology 82 Figure 35 Risk characteristics of emerging technologies that lead to low levels of private sector funding for demonstration and early deployment technologies 83 Figure 36 The recent reduction in total global private sector investment in renewable energy 92 Figure 37 Annual installed wind capacity in the USA 94 Figure 38 Global annual investment (upper) and subsidy (lower) for solar and wind energy 96 Figure 39 Analysis of the rate of cost reduction for PV and wind 97 Figure 40 OECD
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