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Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region

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Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region May 2018 Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region Center for the Blue Economy About the Project Planning for a Changing Ocean aimed to understand how a changing climate impacts our ocean and the Mid-Atlantic’s diverse marine ecosystems, coastal communities and economies. The project examined the implications for resilience of current trends, including increased acidification of coastal and ocean waters, the availability of offshore sand resources and shifting marine life habitats. The project was a collaboration of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO) and the Monmouth University Urban Coast Institute (UCI), made possible by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). URBAN COAST INSTITUTE Contents List of Tables 4 List of Figures 6 Acknowledgments 8 Executive Summary 9 Chapter 1 : Introduction 17 Chapter 2 : Climate change studies relevant to the Mid-Atlantic Region 23 Chapter 3 : Coastal Vulnerability Analysis 43 Chapter 4 : Maritime Transportation 99 Chapter 5 : Fisheries and Fishing Communities 113 Chapter 6 : Ecosystem Services 139 Chapter 7 : Summary and Recommendations 163 List of Tables Table 2-1: Summary of climate change studies. ...............................................................................................................................................................................................24 Table 2-2: Sea level rise scenarios (in feet by year 2100). ............................................................................................................................................................................25 Table 2-3: GMSL scenario probabilities from NOAA 2017 SLR report (meters). ..........................................................................................................................26 Table 2-4: GMSL scenario probabilities from NOAA 2017 SLR report (feet)...................................................................................................................................27 Table 2-5: Summary of reviewed studies. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Table 2-6: SLR scenarios for New York from NYCRR Part 490 (inches). ...............................................................................................................................................31 Table 2-7: SLR scenarios for New Jersey (feet). ...................................................................................................................................................................................................32 Table 2-8: SRL planning scenarios for Delaware. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................33 Table 2-9: SLR projections for Maryland (feet). ...................................................................................................................................................................................................34 Table 2-10: SLR projections at Sewell’s Point, Norfolk, VA in feet relative to NAVD88. ............................................................................................................35 Table 3-1: SLR scenarios recommended for study. .........................................................................................................................................................................................45 Table 3-2: Projected flood areas by state (thousands of acres). .............................................................................................................................................................50 Table 3-3: Distribution of flood area by state. .....................................................................................................................................................................................................50 Table 3-4: Top 10 counties by SLR scenarios. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................51 Table 3-5: Composite ranking of counties for 3 and 6 foot SLR scenarios......................................................................................................................................54 Table 3-6: Ranks of each socio-economic indicator by county. .............................................................................................................................................................56 Table 3-7: Population and housing weighted by SLR scenario: state-wide summary. ..........................................................................................................59 Table 3-8: Percent change in vulnerable population and housing in 6 foot SLR v. 3 foot SLR. ........................................................................................59 Table 3-9: Top 10 counties by population and housing vulnerabilities. ...........................................................................................................................................60 Table 3-10: Employment in shore-adjacent zip codes and SLR vulnerability. .............................................................................................................................65 Table 3-11: Top 10 counties employment in shore-adjacent tracts and weighted by SLR. ...............................................................................................67 Table 3-12: Ocean employment by county and percent of state employment. .......................................................................................................................70 Table 3-13: Seasonal housing units in shore-adjacent tracts by state. ..............................................................................................................................................72 Table 3-14: Top 10 counties for seasonal housing: current and with SLR vulnerabilities. ....................................................................................................73 Table 3-15: Summer peak ratio in leisure & hospitality employment. ...............................................................................................................................................74 Table 3-16: Top 10 counties by summer peak employment ratio. ......................................................................................................................................................74 Table 3-17: Aggregate fish index scores for states. .........................................................................................................................................................................................77 Table 3-18: Top 10 fisheries counties. .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................78 Table 3-19: Top 10 counties in social vulnerability under 3 foot SLR and 6 foot SLR. .............................................................................................................79 Table 3-20: State summary of infrastructure emplacements in coastal counties. ....................................................................................................................82 Table 3-21: Top 10 counties for infrastructure. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................82 4 Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region Table 3-22: Summary of vulnerable roads and railways by state. .........................................................................................................................................................85 Table 3-23: Top 10 counties for road and railway vulnerabilities under 3 foot and 6 foot SLR scenarios. ................................................................86 Table 4-1: 2014 Employment, wages, and GDP contribution of the maritime transportation sector in the Mid-Atlantic Region. ........92 Table 4-2: Cargo movements (million tons) through Mid-Atlantic Region ports in 2016. Source: NOEP and US Army Corps of Engineers. .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................93 Table 4-3: Value ($ billions) of international cargo moved through Mid-Atlantic Region ports (2016)......................................................................93 Table 4-4: Volume (million tons) of cargo moved through New York’s Atlantic ports in 2016.........................................................................................94 Table 4-5: Value ($ billions) of international cargo moved through New York’s Atlantic ports in 2016. ....................................................................94 Table 4-6: Volume (million tons) of cargo moved through New Jersey ports in 2016 ..........................................................................................................95
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