Use of FTA in STI planning: the case of France Mireille Matt GAEL, INRA, Grenoble

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E Workshop Ex-ante Evaluation, priritization, and STI Planning – UNICAMP July 4-5, 2017 .01 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Outline of the presentation

• Brief history of “prospective à la française” • Foresight vs. prospective • France Stratégie • Three examples of FTA in France: – Key technologies – ADEME – INRA • Conclusion

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .02 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

• Mainly starts after WWII ü French administration controls energy, transportation, telecom, bank, insurance, buiding, urbanism, agriculture… ü Prospective emerges from the “planning” State and precursors (G. Berger and B. de Jouvenel): triptych State-Experts-industrial leaders ü Commissariat Général du Plan (1946) ü Different from US ü Linked to economic and social planning (and not military planning) ü Societal and humanist feature (and not a technocratic technic) ü Poor in terms of methods until the end of the 60’s: it is a principle and not a science for the future, nor a methodology ü A discipline dominated by philosophy and literature (not social sciences) ü Objective = to elaborate a collective project for the nation, solve disequilibria, prospective vision by associating trade unions and union of employers ü Prospective should support the action/decisions of the State and of companies A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .03 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

• 1957 to 1963: creation of the main French actors of the prospective ü International Center of Prospective ü Bureau of economic information and prospective ü Rexeco (now Coe-Rexecode) ü Society of Applied Economics and Mathematics (SEMA): Founded by engineers, development of methods and tools ü Futuribles (intellectuals, senior officials, academics, company leaders, foreigners) ü DATAR (town and country planning - 2014)

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .04 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

• 5 funding features of “prospective à la française” ü To see far (integrating dynamics of change) ü To see broad (interdisciplinary and systemic approach) ü To analyse deeply (significant determinants) ü To take risks (distinguish between people in charge of prospective studies and people in charge of decisions) ü To think about humankind (prospective is about human facts) => To imagine desirable futures and elaborate to reach them

The French School of prospective gives room to human freedom and to of action by adopting a systemic vision, (Popiolek, 2015)

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .05 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

• 1960 – 1975 : golden age of prospective üDATAR (Town and country planning): new domain of prospective – new vision – new methods üDATAR + Plan create a research center: Système d’Etudes du Schéma d’Aménagement (Sésame) üImport methods from the US: Delphi, scenario based methods üMethodological development by researchers, consultants: macro-economic projection & quantitative approaches, MICMAC, SMIC (probabilize scenario) üIn terms of persons: prospective conducted by engineers, young intellectuals üSocial prospective: social factors (importance of social science – technical, economic, institutional and social interdependences) are central – against anglosaxon vision privileging technological factors In the French style, prospective is considered as a process and the result of a process in terms of actions ( Durance, 2014)

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .06 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

üRole of large companies ü Important actors since the 50’s – mainly in transportation and energy ü SNECMA in 1962 about supersonic plane (future Concorde): political and economic challenges ü Elf and Shell in 1969 – large companies of energy sector belong to the Prospective Commission for Energy at CGP ü In 70’s and 80’s increased demand of companies to independant organisations (Futuribles) => strategic planning, strategic (being able to manage well) ü Increasing number of “prospectivist” consultants ü Public companies have all their prospective department

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .07 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

ü1975 – 1989 : bad time for prospectivists ü After first oil shock, loss of legitimacy – drop of demand for prospective studies from French State preoccupied by oil shock (short-termism, management of emergency, adaptive strategies): necessity to cope with economic crisis discourages long term visions ü Reconfiguration of many organisations in charge of prospective: CNAM – creation of new methods (Mactor: for analysing the role of actors) ü Planification is in crisis: strategic planning based on various scenarios of the future ü Pessimism (pollution, overpopulation) => prospective studies about environment, risks related to industrial economies, energy. ü With increased demand of companies: new topics such as economic policy, way of life, labour and employment, technologies and society, natural resources and environment

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .08 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Brief history of “prospective à la française”

ü1989 - 2000: regional authorities renew the prospective ü Decentralization of State services: decentralized or spatial prospective (tool for local governance, vector of public debate, means to reinforce support to public projects) ü Prospective conducted by Regions – they have departments of prospective and evaluation

üSince 2000…. ü France Stratégie (2013): new actor – replaces Commissariat Général au Plan ü French government concerned by energy related issues (society and nuclear, energy transition, climate change, post-carbon cities…) ü ADEME, France stratégie, large public and private companies, INRA, CEA ü Main ministries (environment, agriculture, transportation, energy) all have their department of prospective

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .09 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Differences between Strategic foresight and La prospective – Godet, 2014

Strategic Foresight La prospective

Objectives Prediction and anticipation Proactivity and buiding the future

Key factors of Technology and R&D (technology Technical change (20%) is important but innovation foresight) social, political, organizational and commercial factors (80%) are essential

Methods Influence of RAND Corporation (Delphi, Same influence + philosophy + sociology + analysis of systems, scenarios) social sciences + Methods of actors’ game

Place of scenarios Central, on limited number of variables, Central, with more variables, more rigourus important for story telling, consensus, (morpholigical analysis…), too much communicat° scenarios, not enough projects Final result and Reports provide knowledge and shared Client is involved in the production of ideas role of futurist/ vision to client = appropriation by final client (not the prospectivist Vision produced by futurist as en expert report) of the domain Prospectivist = coach who facilitates Client should appropriate the result collective K prod° - not an expert of the domain – brings solid and participative A L I M E N T A T I O N methods to foster collective thinking A G R I C U L T U R E .010 E N V I R O N N E M E N T France Stratégie

ü2017 – France Stratégie follows a societal approach of prospective ü To enlighten the future, to anticipate and predict the future mutations and risks, questions the world of tomorrow, elaborates societal scenarios and critical actions ü Mains themes treated by France Stratégie: ü France 2017-2027 ü Technological mutation and social mutation ü Town and country planning ü Ideal-types for school ü Smart cities ü Future of euro-zone ü Future of labour and employment, ü , automation, circular economy => Use in STI planning? ü Locus of long term thinking: intermediary organizations such as Ademe and INRA

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .011 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Three examples of TFA in France: Key Technologies, ADEME, INRA • Key Technologies 2020 (Fifth edition): 47 technologies and 9 domains of application (2014-2016) – Ministry of Industry: prospective over 5 years – Objectives: to establish an operational guide for the industry, especially SMEs, to foster innovation in France – Two phases: understanding needs of news use and new markets (market pull approach), and selection of technologies (use of international scenarios; mobilize roadmaps generated by regions, Clusters, Ademe; systemic vision of key technologies) – 200 experts from universities, PRO, industry, clusters, innovation intermediaries

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .012 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Key technologies

• Lessons from past exercises ü Questions asked at the beginning of exercise are crucial to orient the work, the type of results and the method ü Choice of experts is key ü Key techno 2000: to guide innovation policy of the Ministry of Industry ü Key techno 2005: used by local actors to guide their action and target their priorities ü Key techno 2010: used to guide competitiveness clusters and regional innovation policies ü Key techno 2020: R&D strategic orientation of French companies

Þ Vision shared by the experts should be more widely disseminated Þ Often low support of the public authorities in willingness to use the results of the exercise: few actors committed to the project

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .013 E N V I R O N N E M E N T ADEME

• French agency supporting research and innovation for waste management, energy conservation and new alternative energies • Budget around 600 M€ and 1000 employees in 2016 • Present in all French regions • Mobilizes a large portfolio of instruments: 4 large types – Decision supports (diagnostics, diffusion of technologies…) – Knowldege development (PhD Grants, R&D programmes, demonstrators + benchmarck, prospective, evaluation) – Support for behavioral change (education, communication…) – Regional support • Delegated by the French Investissement d’avenir 1.6 B€ for demonstrators for decarbonated energy sources and consumption • Contract with clear objectives with the State

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .014 E N V I R O N N E M E N T ADEME

• Since 2008, ADEME realizes technological roadmaps with experts (ADEME, industry, PRO, institutions, local authorities, consultants, associations… – Transport and mobility; decarbonated energies and bio-resources; circular economy and soil pollution – Establish coherent and shared visions of technologies and sociotechnical systems – Identify technological, organizational and socio-economic bottlenecks – Define research priorities and needs for demonstrators, platforms and experimentation

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .015 E N V I R O N N E M E N T ADEME

• For each roadmap, the mix of instruments implemented by ADEME is specific – For Urban consumption the roadmap focuses on energy efficiency of building (Mix: experimentation and demonstration, guides, training sessions) and consumption patterns of shops and private housing (Mix downstream: diffusion, communication, regulation and support for change)

• Building of long term scenarios: 2030-2050 energy vision – Vision about maximum potential energy savings and renewable energies until 2030 – Vision about the possibility to divide by 4 greenhouse gas emissions

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .016 E N V I R O N N E M E N T INRA

• French National Institute for Agronomic Research – Budget 880M€, 8500 employees, 14 scientific departments including animal and plant sciences, environmental research, food technology and consumption, social sciences • Since 1993, prospective approach to define its research orientations and open up new research fields: integration of environmental issues with agronomic and food issues • Method of scenarios • Type of studies realized: - agriculture and nutrition in the world in 2050 ; - new rural areas in 2030; - non-food uses of the plant biomass in 2050

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .017 E N V I R O N N E M E N T INRA 2010-2020

• Strategic orientation document: – Based on various prospective analyses + broad participatory consultation – Defines 4 research priorities: improve all the components of agriculture, build sustainable food systems, valorise the biomass, mediate global warming – Support two emerging disciplines: predictive approaches in life science and agro-ecology – One main objective: eating in a healthy and sustainable way – Mobilize all disciplines: 6 meta-programmes (assemblage of S&T around societal challenges) – Building a participatory research: increase the anticipation ability of INRA, renew the tools for science-society dialogue, improve socio-economic partnership

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .018 E N V I R O N N E M E N T Conclusions

• La prospective = scenario about the evolution of the society, dialogue around societal challenges, way of living • Philosophical and social science approach + methods • Technology and R&D is only one factor among social, economic, organizational, institutional and political factors • Prospective is a pervasive activity: ministries, companies, France Stratégie, funding agencies, PROs (INRA, CEA …) • FTA : relevant places in intermediary organizations such as ADEME and INRA. Delegation of scientific issues to scientists who question society. Ability to position S&T issues in societal challenges. Use FTA for strategic orientation, funding decisions and design of support tools (mix of support, metaprogram)

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .019 E N V I R O N N E M E N T THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E .020 E N V I R O N N E M E N T