MR SPEAKER Honourable Members, I Sought Further Information from the Members for Nanango, Everton, Glass House and Kawana About

SPEAKER’S RULING - ALLEGED DELIBERATELY MISLEADING THE HOUSE, MANUFACTURING JOBS

MR SPEAKER Honourable members,

On 21 May 2019, the Minister for State LAID UPONTHETABLEOFTHEHOUSE Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure No: iSTi/

On 20 June 2019, the Minister also wrote to me alleging that the Leader of the Opposition and Member for Nanango deliberately misled the House in making a similar statement on 13 June 2019.

The matters relate to statements made about the loss of manufacturing jobs in Queensland.

In his letter to me, the Minister contended that the Members’ statements were incorrect and that they disregarded guidance on methods of statistical analysis from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office when making such statements.

I sought further information from the Members for Nanango, Everton, Glass House and Kawana about the allegation made against them, in accordance with Standing Order 269(5). The Members provided me with publicly available figures on manufacturing jobs that they used as a basis for their statements in the House, and noted that such figures were a result of a different method of statistical analysis than that used by the Minister.

On the evidence before me, I consider that the Members for Nanango, Everton, Glass House and Kawana have made an adequate explanation for the basis of their statements under Standing Order 269(4).

I have therefore decided that these matters do not warrant the further attention of the House via the Ethics Committee and I will not be referring the matters.

I table the correspondence in relation to these matters.

I will restate my ruling at the next sitting of the House in order that members’ rights under Standing Orders are not diminished. The Hon. Cameron Dick MP Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Queensland Government Infrastructure and Planning

1 William Street Brisbane QLD 4000 PO Box 15009 City East Queensland 4002 Australia 21 May 2019 Telephone +61737197200 Email [email protected] www.dsdmip.qld.gov.au The Honourable Curtis Pitt MP Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Queensland Parliament Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

Email: [email protected]

Dear Mr Speaker

I wish to draw your attention to a matter of privilege concerning statements made in the House by the on 15 May 2019 regarding manufacturing jobs in Queensland by the Member for Everton, Mr Timothy Mander, the Member for Glass House, Mr Andrew Powell, and the Member for Kawana, Mr Jarrod Bleijie.

I submit that in making these statements, the Members deliberately misled the House and are in contempt of the Parliament, in breach of Standing Order 266 of the Standing Rules and Orders of the Legislative Assembly (Standing Orders).

In particular, the Member for Everton, in moving his private member’s motion, made the following statement:

18,000jobs have been lost in the manufacturing sector and Queensland has the lowest number of manufacturing workers in three decades;

The Member for Glass House, in the debate on the private member’s motion, made the following statement:

The government did the same thing to the manufacturing sector, driving it into the ground. Some 18,000jobs were lost across manufacturing industnes

The Member for Kawana made an interjection, which I took up, which sought to affirm those earlier statements by approximating “20,000!” jobs lost.

The statements are incorrect, and I believe those Members knew the statements to be incorrect when they made them. This is because on 1 May 2019 I made a ministerial statement, immediately after Question Time, at a time that the Members of the Opposition were still in the chamber. In that statement, I responded to false claims made in Question time by the Member for Glass House about manufacturing jobs. In that statement I provided analysis by the Queensland Government Statistician (QGS) of data reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), tabling a document prepared by the QGS to support my statement. I repeated that advice in my contribution to the private member’s motion debate on 15 May 2019. I enclose a copy of my ministerial statement and the paper I tabled at the time on 1 May 2019, a copy of my contribution to the debate on 15 May 2019, and a copy of a page from the ABS website which specifically warns against using data to make comparisons in the way the Members have.

I believe the Members have wilfully disregarded this authoritative guidance from both the ABS and the QGS, even after I drew it to their attention on two occasions, and I recommend that the Members should be referred to the ethics committee.

Section 37 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001 sets out the meaning of contempt of the Assembly as:

(1) Contempt of the Assembly means a breach or disobedience of the powers, rights or immunities, or a contempt, of the Assembly or its members or committees. (2) Conduct, including words, is not contempt of the Assembly unless it amounts, or is intended or likely to amount, to an improper interference with— (a) the free exercise by the Assembly or a committee of its authority or functions; or (b) the free performance by a member of the member’s duties as a member.

Standing Order 266 of the Standing Orders sets out examples of what might constitute a contempt of the Parliament and, whilst not limiting the power of the House to the matters contained therein, includes a reference in sub-paragraph (2) to:

"deliberately misleading the House or a committee (by way of submission, statement, evidence or petition);” •

There are three elements to be proven in order to establish that a member has committed the contempt of deliberately misleading the House:

1. The statement must have been misleading; 2. The member making the statement must have known, at the time the statement was made, that it was incorrect; and 3. In making the statement, the member intended to mislead the House,

I will address each of these elements in turn.

1. The statement must have been misleading

I submit that statements made by the Members above were false and misleading. As I said in my Ministerial Statement, the Queensland Government Statistician most recent report notes that there has been a 5.3 per cent increase in manufacturing jobs in Queensland year on year, compared to 3.2 per cent at the national level. This means that Queensland’s manufacturing sector employs 173,400 persons - an increase of 8,700 persons compared to the March quarter 2018.

Page 2 of 3 2. The member making the statement must have known, at the time the statement was made, that it was incorrect

To the best of my recollection, the three Members were present In the chamber at the time I made my statement on 1 May 2019. In particular, I distinctly recall the Member for Glass House leaving his seat and walking past the Bar of the House on the opposition side of the Chamber, where he remained while I addressed the chamber. Accordingly, I believe those members were aware of the correct interpretation of the manufacturing jobs data at the time of making their statement.

3. In making the statement, the member intended to mislead the House

If a member makes a statement which is subsequently shown to be misleading, they should be provided with the opportunity to correct the record.

As noted previously, I made a statement on 1 May 2019 providing the correct analysis of the manufacturing jobs data.

I reminded those three members of this correct analysis on 15 May 2019 in my contribution to the Private Members’ debate. I note those members were all present at the time. I note that none of the Members concerned have made any effort to correct the record since.

I therefore submit that by allowing the false and misleading statements to remain on the record, each of the Members have given a clear indication that they do not intend to make sure their statements to the House are accurate. I believe that they have illustrated that they fully intended, and continues to intend, to mislead the House and the Queensland community about this important matter.

Conclusion

Mr Speaker, I submit that this information is sufficient to establish that the Member for Everton, the Member for Glass House, and the Member for Kawana, have made statements to the House that are misleading, that they have known to be incorrect, and that, in so doing, they have intended to mislead the House.

I therefore submit that the Member for Everton, the Member for Glass House, and the Member for Kawana are, prima facie, in breach of Standing Order 266 of the Standing Orders and are in contempt of the Parliament. Accordingly, I ask that you refer this matter to the Ethics Committee for its consideration of whether the Member for Everton, the Member for Glass House, and the Member for Kawana are in breach of the Standing Orders.

Yours sincerely

CAMERON DICK MP Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning Member for Woodridge

Page 3 of 3 1 May 2019 Ministerial Statement 1321

Ms FENTIMAN: I thank the member for Gladstone for his question. I know what a huge advocate he is for ensuring that workers who have experience get the qualifications they need. Our free TAPE program for year 12 graduates is critical. Part of our investment in training and skills is also helping those workers who have lots of experience get the qualifications they need to build a successful career. That is what our $5 million Trade Skills Assessment and Gap Training program provides. I am very pleased to report to the House that this program has just supported its two-thousandth qualified tradesperson. This is excellent news for Queensland. We know that workers sometimes need to change jobs, and it Is really important that they are supported to get a qualification that recognises their skills so they can go on to another successful career. Sadly, not all retraining comes at a time of a worker’s choosing. One of the most recent examples in Queensland was the collapse of Queensland Nickel, where 800 jobs were lost. There Is still $70 million owed in unpaid debts due to the chaos caused by one Clive Palmer. Today we have seen Clive Palmer come out in a desperate attempt to get back to Canberra. He said that he will put $7 million of the $70 million owed into a trust account for workers. This is a disgrace. We heard employees on the radio this morning like Jacob Fyshwick, who is owed more than $10,000. He talked about how his life has essentially been ruined over the last three years. What do we see from those opposite? Their federal colleagues are rushing to hop into bed with Clive Palmer, who has left these workers in the lurch for three years. We have seen Ted O’Brien from the LNP, the member for Fairfax, stand up and say he is not going to do it because it would be an insult, but of course we have heard nothing from the member for Nanango— (Time expired) Mr SPEAKER: The time for question time has expired. I call the Minister for State Development. Members will leave the chamber quietly. I advise all members who are on a warning that there will be no interjections. That will remain in force until the lunch adjournment. If there are, the Deputy Speaker will take action.

MINISTERIAL STATEMENT

Manufacturing, Jobs ^4 Hon. CR DICK (Woodridge—ALP) (Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning) (11.19 am): In question time today the member for Glass House made claims about a reduction in employment in manufacturing in Queensland. I refer the honourable member to the Queensland Government Statistician’s most recent analysis of employment data, for the March quarter 2019. In that respect I table a note on employment by Industry for the March quarter 2019 prepared by the Queensland Government Statistician’s office. Tabled paper. Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, document, undated, titled ’Employment by Industry, March quarter 2019’ [6671. The Queensland Government Statistician notes that there has been a 5.3 per cent increase in manufacturing jobs in Queensland year on year, compared to 3.2 per cent at the national level. This means that Queensland’s manufacturing sector employs 173,400 persons—an increase of 8,700 persons compared to the March quarter 2018. I am aware of a recent report on manufacturing jobs in the Courier-Mail that claimed there had been a decline in manufacturing jobs. I am advised that the report in the Courier-Mail relied on a single raw data point that is not adjusted for seasonal variation, which can fluctuate from one quarter to the next. The ABS specifically recommends against using raw data points when reporting labour force data and instead recommends that best practice is to use seasonally adjusted and trend data. Notably, the ABS has advised that for the March quarter flooding in Townsville in February 2019 resulted in a major disruption to the operation of the labour force survey in Queensland and forced the ABS to impute the sample for Townsville. The reality is that the Palaszczuk Labor government has created even more manufacturing jobs and has more manufacturing jobs in the pipeline. As the Premier advised the House this morning, we are working with Rheinmetall to construct the $170 million Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence at Redbank to deliver the Australian Army’s biggest ever defence contract. In 2017-18, $9.55 billion in defence contracts were awarded to companies based in Queensland—more than double the value of the previous year, growing the sector even further. The government has also invested $40 million into 1322 Electoral and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 1 May 2019

the Made in Queensland program, helping manufacturers across the state. We are also investing $30 million to create three new manufacturing hubs—in Cairns, Townsville and Rockhampton—to support regional manufacturers with training and development I would caution members of the LNP against intentionally or unintentionally misleading the House by repeating in this House claims about a reduction in manufacturing jobs in this state.

ELECTORAL AND OTHER LEGISLATION AMENDMENT BILL

Introduction ^4 Hon. YM D’ATH (Redcliffe—ALP) (Attorney-General and Minister for Justice) (11.22 am): I present a bill for an act to amend the Acts Interpretation Act 1954, the Electoral Act 1992, the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001 and the Referendums Act 1997 for particular purposes. I table the bill and the explanatory notes. I nominate the Legal Affairs and Community Safety Committee to consider the bill. Tabled paper: Electoral and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2019 [668]. Tabled paper: Electoral and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2019, explanatory notes 16691. I am pleased to introduce the Electoral and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2019. This bill implements important reforms to improve the integrity, transparency and public accountability of the state’s electoral system. Building on the Palaszczuk government’s strong record of enhancing electoral integrity, transparency and accountability in Queensland, the bill aims to further strengthen public confidence in our electoral system as a key democratic institution. The bill also supports operational improvements to the electoral system, not only to allow the Electoral Commission Queensland, ECQ, to achieve efficiencies but also to improve aspects of the voter experience. The bill makes necessary consequential amendments to the electoral and related legislation consistent with the adoption of four-year fixed terms for the Legislative Assembly of Queensland following the referendum in 2016. The bill will provide for increased consistency of the laws governing state and local government elections and referendums—our state electoral laws. Following the Queensland local government elections on 19 March 2016, the Crime and Corruption Commission, CCC, received numerous complaints about the conduct of the candidates for the Gold Coast City Council, Moreton Bay Regional Council and Ipswich City Council. In response to these allegations the CCC initiated Operation Belcarra, which included an examination of practices that may give rise to actual or perceived corruption or otherwise undermine public confidence in the integrity of local government with a view to identifying strategies or reforms to help prevent or decrease corruption risks and increase public confidence. The inquiry was later expanded to include the Logan City Council. The government supported, or supported in principle, all 31 recommendations contained in the resulting CCC report titled Operation Belcarra: a blueprint for integrity and addressing corruption risk in local government, known as the Belcarra report. The government implemented a first stage of reforms through the Local Government Electoral (Implementing Stage 1 of Belcarra) and Other Legislation Amendment Act 2018, which banned donations from property developers to key political actors including candidates, political parties and regulated third parties at both the local and state levels of government. I was pleased to see this legislation withstand the High Court challenge made by the former LNP president, Mr Spence, recently. This bill builds on this first stage of reforms by making further legislative amendments to implement the government’s response to recommendations 6,30 and 31 of the Belcarra report for state elections. Pursuant to recommendation 31 of the Belcarra report, the ECQ will have its statutory functions expanded to include administering and promoting compliance with the election funding and financial disclosure provisions of the Electoral Act 1992 and corresponding provisions of the Local Government Electoral Act 2011. This recognises the critical role of the ECQ in monitoring and enforcing compliance with the election funding and financial disclosure requirements which are key to the Integrity, transparency and accountability of the electoral system. This measure will be complemented by the amendment of existing, and the introduction of new, offence and penalty provisions. These changes will improve consistency among our state electoral laws and will promote compliance. In particular, this bill creates an offence where a person knowingly publishes false information about gifts made to a candidate in an election, a registered political party or a third party, with a maximum penalty of 20 units, as well as increases the penalty applicable to third parties who knowingly lodge a false return about donations given to candidates from 50 penalty units QUEENSLAND TREASURY Queensland Government

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Employment by industry, March quarter 2019 Source: ABS 6291.0.55.003, released 28 March 2019, 10:30 am AEST • During March quarter 2019, the highest percentage of Key data total employment in Queensland was recorded in the Health care and social assistance industry (14.0%). Table 1 Employed persons by industry®) (annual change^*’*) The highest percentage of total employment in Industry Old Aus Australia was also in Health care and social — % assistance (13.3%) (Figure 2). Health care and social assistance 0.4 1.3 Figure 1 Contribution to employment changes by Retail trade -2.7 -1.1 industry, year to March quarter 2019 Construction -2.6 0.5 Education and training 7.6 0.2 Australia Accommodation and food services 1.4 1.4 Health care and social assistance Manufacturing 5.3 3.2 Retail trade Professional, scientific and technical services 5.2 6.8 Constiuction

Public administration and safety 11.7 12.5 Education and training

Transport, postal and warehousing -6.7 0.1 Accommodation and food services i

Other services -6.6 -2.5 Manufacturing :

Otheri‘> 4.1 3.7 Professional, scientific and technical services

Total 1.8 2.4 Public administration and safety

(a) Based on Queensland’s top ten industries by number employed as at March Transport, postal and warehousing quarter 2019, Otherservices (b) Year to March quarter 2019 on year to March quarter 2018, -0.6 (c) other includes the following nine industries: Administrative and support services: Wholesale trade; Mining; Agriculture, forestry and fishing; Financial and insurance services; Rental, hiring and real estate services; Arts and recreation services; Electricity, gas, water and waste services; and Figure 2 Percentage of employed persons by industry of Information media and telecommunications. employment, March quarter 2019 Main findings o Queensland "Australia Note: Data in this brief are based on 4-quarter moving averages.

In the February reference month of March quarter 2019, there were 2,496,133 employed persons in Queensland, which accounted for 19.7% of Australia’s total employment. Over the year to March quarter 2019, of Queensland’s top ten industries by number employed, the largest percentage increase in employment occurred in the Public administration and safety industry (up 11.7%). For Australia, within these ten industries, the Public administration and safety industry had the largest percentage increase (up 12.5%). Notes Over the year to March quarter 2019, of Queensland’s The labour force statistics presented in this brief are based on a top ten industries by number employed, the Public sample and are subject to sampling error. As such these estimates will exhibit, in some cases, large volatility in quarterly changes. administration and safety industry recorded the largest Extreme caution should be used when making inferences from contribution to the increase in employed persons in these estimates. Queensland (0.7 percentage point). In comparison, Industry of employment was coded to the ABS 2006 Australian and the Transport, postal and warehousing industry New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC). recorded the largest detraction in Queensland (-0.4 percentage point) (Figure 1).

http://www.qqso.qld.qov.au http.7/creativecQmmons.orq/licenses/bv/4.0 © The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2019 1684 Motion 15 May 2019

Mr CRISAFULLI: When we contrast Queensland’s unemployment rate against the national average, we see that it is particularly woeful. This motion highlights that business investment in Queensland is in freefall, wage growth in the private sector is far less than the national average and there is a crisis in the construction industry. The other day in regional Queensland I met a builder who said that conditions were the worst he had seen in 40 years. Queensland Is the strike capital of Australia. There are five new taxes weighing down our economy, the largest of which were not promised In the lead-up to the last election. This motion does not say why this is happening. I believe it is because the Deputy Premier and Treasurer has her eye off the ball, instead of balancing the books, she is overseeing her pet projects. Instead of reining in costs, she has ministers scurrying to her asking for permission for everything they do each and every day. Above all, the major reason is that the Treasurer is conflicted in her electorate. The Treasurer can be a lion around the cabinet table, but a lamb in her electorate. She can be a warrior in William Street, but a wimp in West End. The Treasurer knows that, in order to survive, she must kowtow to the very people whose agenda runs contrary to what this state needs. Everyday Queenslanders talk about a balance when transitioning from coal to renewable energy, but, in order for the member for South Brisbane to survive, she must kowtow to a group who do not believe that So her mind wanders. Instead of balancing the books, she looks afar and asks, ‘Is the grass greener on the other slope or do I feel like a Tooheys?’ One way or another, someone opposite Is going to feel the knife, because in the long term the Deputy Premier knows that she cannot do both: she cannot be an effective member in her electorate and an effective Treasurer. The Treasurer cannot continue to survive in a seat where the views of her constituency run contrary to what this state needs. In contrast, the LNP has a vision. This evening, our shadow Treasurer outlined a wonderful vision—the delivery of infrastructure, roads, things like the Ml, things like the next stage of light rail, hospitals, classrooms, dams and no new taxes. Tonight I say we will govern to fix the mess caused by the catastrophic management of those opposite, we will govern to fix the unemployment crisis gripping this state and we will govern with the humility and discipline to restore confidence in a once-mighty economy. Hon. CR DICK (Woodridge—ALP) (Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning) (5.50 pm): I am delighted to rise in the House to oppose this motion. One thing is for sure and certain; after that contribution the Leader of the Opposition has absolutely nothing to worry about. The member for Broadwater talks about a vision. What is that vision? It is the member for Broadwater looking in the mirror each morning—and doesn’t he like what he sees! 1 start my contribution to this debate with a single central proposition: being lectured to by the LNP on economic management is like being lectured to by Peter Dutton on loyalty; it lacks any shred of credibility—not one iota of credibility. The poor old member for Everton was up in his office last night with the quill and the inkwell scratching out a few facts—things that he thinks are facts and I will say a little bit more about that later—cobbling together a few random thoughts in a desperate attempt to demonstrate relevance to the economic debate in the state. What this motion demonstrates more than anything else is the member for Everton’s unique and special gift for getting it wrong. Nowhere is that more evident than in this motion’s reference to manufacturing jobs in Queensland. What this motion says about the reduction in manufacturing jobs— Mr Bleijie: 20,0001 Mr DICK: It has gone from 18,000 according to the member for Everton to 20,000 according to the member for Kawana. It is simply wrong. Not only is it wrong, he knows it to be wrong. Honourable members interjected. Mr SPEAKER: Sorry to interrupt you, Minister. Members, there is far too much cross chamber crossfire. The member on their feet deserves to be heard. Mr DICK: They made this claim in question time on 1 May. As honourable members know, I rose at the end of question time, at the first available opportunity, to put the facts on the record. Not my facts—statistics from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office. As I said in the address to the House on 1 May, the Queensland Government Statistician’s recent analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics employment data shows that there has been a 5.3 increase in manufacturing jobs In Queensland year on year. What was the national increase? It was 3.2 per cent. The LN P’s shameful attempt to compare original points of data from the ABS data series is as absurd as it is misleading. I said in the parliament that the ABS specifically says do not compare those data points. They specifically 15 May 2019 Motion 1685

recommend against it on their website. It is a black and white case of the member for Everton deliberately misleading the House and I will write to you, Mr Speaker, on that. I would encourage the member for Everton to look at what I said in the House immediately after question time on 1 May. It may be useful to look at the video to see who was in the House at that time. The truth is that manufacturing jobs are up and so is investment. Gross value added contribution to the manufacturing sector in Queensland Increased by $700 million in the last year. We have even more manufacturing jobs on the way. Rheinmetall is coming to Queensland. We are implementing our manufacturing policy. What was the manufacturing policy that the LNP took to the election in 2015? Absolutely nothing. What was the manufacturing policy it took to the people of Queensland in 2017? Absolutely nothing. Those opposite have an unmatched flair for talking Queensland down. What they do not like, what they cannot say and what they cannot stomach are the facts. The facts are that the unemployment rate in Queensland is lower, the budget balance Is healthier, exports are higher, state final demand is higher and that Queenslanders are far, far happier than when we took over from the toxic Newman LNP government. There are more Queenslanders working in manufacturing than there were at the end of the Newman government. Manufacturing jobs are up four per cent since we came to government. That goes to the heart of the LNP. It Is ail talk and no substance. It is all talk and no action when it comes to manufacturing. We will support this vitally strong sector of the Queensland economy for as long as we are in power. Mr Mander interjected. Mr SPEAKER: Member for Everton, you are under a warning. I will ask you to leave the chamber for the remainder of this debate. Whereupon the honourable member for Everton withdrew from the chamber at 5.55 pm.

RS4 Mr LANGBROEK (Surfers Paradise—LNP) (5.55 pm): As they say, past performance is a good indicator of future performance and Labor has an abysmal track record when it comes to managing Queensland’s money. Looking at point 1 on this motion where we speak about the failed forecast in the MYFER, I can just imagine what happened when officials came and knocked on the door of the Deputy Premier and Treasurer. They would have been asked, ‘What are you here for, people in suits?’ The people in suits would have said, ‘We are actually here from Treasury and we need to talk to the Treasurer about a problem with the midyear numbers.’ They would have come in and said to the Treasurer, ‘There is a problem. We have a $1.3 billion writedown about the stamp duty revenue.’ The Treasurer would have thought, ‘I know what I’ll say, I will say “We know, and can I say that’s disgraceful and that’s outrageous and I’m disgusted and there is absolutely no credibility! It’s the federal government!”' The Treasury officials would have said, ‘No, actually, we are not from the federal government we are from the state government. We do not do the MYEFO we do the MYFER.’ The Treasurer then found out that it was her own MYFER, not the MYEFO, that she referred to in the Hansard when she referred to this issue back on 3 April. Let us have a look at the MYFER, written of course by this Treasurer, where she said on page 12 in relation to stamp duty—

The improved position is the result of an uplift in revenue forecasts, supported by coal prices remaining higher for longer than expected, and an improved outlook for transfer duties in 2018-19. That is what the Treasurer said in the MYFER in early December 2018. We subsequently saw a $1.3 billion writedown by early April. On page 14 of the MYFER, an absolute contrast to what was written on page 12—

Taxation revenue has also been revised downwards by $121 million across the period 2018-19 to 2021-22, compared to the 2018-19 Budget estimate which allows for a slowing of growth in the property market. In December 2018 there was going to be a $121 million writedown but the Treasurer, by early April, had to admit that there was going to be a $1.3 billion writedown. She came into the parliament on 3 April and at page 1019 said everyone knows there has been a property slowdown in New South Wales and Victoria so that is exactly what has happened here. She had no idea about it four months, just over 100 days, before that. We see what the Deputy Premier and Treasurer does when it comes to the other aspects of her portfolio. We saw it today in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships when it comes to the issue of whether she is responsible for what happens in other portfolios. Today in question time she threw the Minister for Child Safety under the bus. They obviously do not have a cabinet subcommittee that deals with housing, child safety, education, health and, of course, the minister responsible for the 5/17/2019 1346.0.55.003 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012 Skip to main content

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> By Catalogue Number ■ 1346.0.55.003 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012 Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/12/2012 First Issue

WHICH INDICATOR SHOULD I USE?

WHICH SERIES SHOULD I USE?

The original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are three separate series describing different aspects of the same data. These series are useful for different purposes.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

The original is the best estimate we can make of the level of activity at any particular point in time. These are the estimates you’d use when focusing on history - e.g. auditing, comparing different data sources, assessing market share. Note that different months are not directly comparable.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted estimates are produced by removing seasonal patterns from the original estimates. They are good for performance measures and comparisons - was that advertising campaign effective, how much tourist traffic did we lose because of the Tsunami, is unemployment doing better In QLD than in TAS. Again, they’re very history focused. Different months are comparable but month-to-month movements are usually dominated by irregular effects.

TREND ESTIMATES

Trend estimates are produced by smoothing noise from the seasonally adjusted estimates. This is the best source of information for forecasting or making decisions about what to do in the future. It is directly comparable at different points in time. Trend estimates are revised as new original estimates become available. This makes sure we have the most up-to-date and best possible estimate. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@,nsf/Lookup/1346.0.55.003Main+Features302012 1/4 5/17/2Q19 1346.0.55.003 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012

For some questions you need to consider more than one series. Few retailers would hire many staff in late December, because sales consistently drop in January - something you can see from the seasonal pattern, the original minus the seasonally adjusted.

KEYPOINT:

The original estimates, seasonally adjusted estimates and trend estimates are series that present different but complementary infoirnation.

WHY SHOULDN’T 1 COWIRARE ORIGINAL DATA FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT?

The original data contains the seasonal patterns, residual noise and irregular Influences. A comparison of original data from consecutive periods may lead to misleading conclusions if there is a strong seasonal pattern in the data.

For example, if you are looking at the unemployment rate, the original value for December 2009 is lower than January 2010; you might eoncluda that the underlying unemployment rate is going up. But January unemployment is seasonally high compared to December, and the underlying unemployment rate was actually falling; the Dec-Jan Increase was not as big as usuaL

HOW ABOUT COMPARING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT?

Seasonal patterns have been removed from the seasonally adjusted data, however the residual noise and irregular influences are still present. If the residual noise is high it may distort a comparison of seasonally adjusted estimates. Similarly, an unusual event or irregular influence may affect a comparison. For example, consider a series which has an underlying increasing trend. An unusual event such as a strike may lead to a "once-off” low value for one period.

WHICH 1NDIGATOR SHOULD I USE TO COMPARE MONTH-TO-MONTH OR QUARTER-TO- QUARTER PERCENTAGE CHANGES?

Series Reco m me n dation Benefits and disadvantages

Original estimates Do not use Usually dominated by seasonal effects; also residual noise and irregular influenees. Seasonally adjusted estimates Use with caution Provides useful information on the effects of short term, major events. Dominated by irregular and noise, except for series with very little volatility. Trend estimates Preferred option The best indicator of underlying behaviour for month-to-month or quarter- to-quarter changes. Recent estimates, usually the last 3 or 4, may be revised.

KEY POINT:

Trend estimates are usually preferred to compare data at different points in time as potentially misleading seasonal patterns, residual noise and irregular influences have been removed. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/1346.0.55.003Main+Features302012 2/4 5/17/2019 1346.0.55^03 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012

WHY SHOULDN’T I JUST COMPARE ORIGINAL DATA FROM THE SAME PERIOD IN EACH YEAR?

Compahng original data from the same period in each year is a crude form of seasonal adjustment which assumes that the seasonal patterns do not change. It does not completely remove all seasonal effects.

Certain holiGlays such as Easter and Chinese New Year fall in different periods in each year and their effects may distort the observed values. This comparison also ignores trading day effects caused by different day type compositions of the month in each year.

Each month consists of 4 complete weeks plus an extra 1, 2 or 3 days. Different levels of daily activity on the extra days may cause differences in the original estimates for the same month in consecutive years, even though the underlying level of activity is unchanged. Similarly, this type of Gomparison will ignore any changes to the seasonal pattern over time.

Since the original estimates also contain the Influence of the irregular component, a comparison of original estimates may also be distorted if the magnitude of the irregular component is strong when compared with the magnitude of the trend.

However, the m^or disadvantage of comparing year to year data, whether original, seasonally adjusted, or trend, is lack of precision and time delays in the identification of turning points in a series.

Turning points occur when the direction of underlying level of the series changes, for example, when a cGnsistentiy decreasing series begins to rise steadily. Using year to year changes in original data may cause delays of up to 6 months in the identification of turning points.

WHICH INDICATOR SHOULD I USE TO COMPARE YEAR APART CHANGES?

Series Recommendation Benefits and d isadvantages

Original estimates Do not use Crude form of seasonal adjustment assuming seasonal patterns do riot change. May be misleadirig as it ignores evolving seasonal patterns, trading day arid moving holiday effects. May contain high eontribution from residual noise. Seasonally adjusted estimates Use with caution May be misleading, because year apart percentage changes in the seasonally adjusted estimates usually contain a high contribution from the residual noise. Trend estimates Preferred option Stable measure indicating average trend movement over the year. May not reflect current direetlori of the trend if there has been a change in the direction of the trend during the year.

This page last updated 10 December 2012

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The Hon. Cameron Dick MP biw Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Qyeensfand Governtnerit Infrastructure and Planning

1 Williarn Street Brisbane QLD /4000 PO Box 15009 City East Queensland 4002 Australia Telephone +61737197200 The Honourable Curtis Pitt MP Email [email protected] Speaker of the Legislative Assembly vMw.dsd m i p.qld.gov.au Queensland Parliament Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

Email: speaker@par|iament dld.gov.au

Dear Mr^eaker y

I refer to my correspondence dated 21 May 2019 Goncerning statements made in the House by the on 15 May 2019 regarding manufacturing jobs in Queensland by the Member for Everton, Mr Timothy Mander, the Member for Glass House, Mr Andrew Powell, and the Member for Kawana, Mr Jarrod Bleijie.

On 13 June 2019 the Leader of the Opposition, Ms Deb Frecklington, made further statements about manufacturing jobs in Queensland in her budget reply, I believe in doing so, the Leader of the Opposition also deliberately misled the House and is in contempt of the Parliament, in breach of Standing Order 266 of the Standing Rules and Orders of the Legislative Assembly (Standing Orders).

In particular, the Leader of the Opposition made the following statement in her budget reply;

Under Labor thousands of manufacturing jobs have been destroyed in Brisbane, Townsville, Toowoomba, Mackay and Cairns.

I believe the Leader of Opposition has deliberately misled the house in the same manner as the Member for Everton, the Member for Glass House and the Member for Everton did, as I wrote to you about on 21 May 2019.

I therefore submit that the Leader of the Opposition is, prima facie, in breach of Standing Order 266 of the Standing Orders and Is in contempt of the Parliament. Accordingly, I ask that you refer the Leader of the Opposition to the Ethics Committee along with the Member for Everton, the Member for Glass House, and the Member for Kawana.

Yours sincerely

Vivw\AA^r\A CAMERON DICK MP Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning Member for Woodridge Tim MANDER MP Member for Everton

The Hon Curtis Pitt MP Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Parliament House Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

By email: [email protected]

Dear Mr Speaker

I refer to your letter of 24 May 2019, relating to a submission you have received from the Member for Woodridge dated 21 May 2019.

I appreciate the opportunity to respond to the matter.

My response is contained in the attached submission and I contend that the statement I made on 15 May 2019 that “18,000 jobs have been lost in the manufacturing sector and Queensland has the lowest number of manufacturing workers in three decades” is factually correct.

If you require any further information on this matter, please do not hesitate to contact my office.

Yours sincerely

Tim Mander MP State Member for Everton Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Treasurer

3 June 2019

ftl 1st Root. 510-520 South Pine Road, Everton Park Old 4052 S PO Box 656, Everton Park Qfd 4053 S 07 35351100 @ [email protected] Sttmmander.com.au f TimManderMPEverton @TimManderMP Tim MANDERMP Member for Everton

SUBMISSION IN RESPONSE TO CLAIM MADE BY THE MEMBER FOR WOODRIDGE

BACKGROUND 1. This matter relates to a submission by the Member for Woodridge that on 15 May 2019 I made a deliberately misleading statement during a Private Members Motion contribution when I stated:

“18,000 jobs have been lost in the manufacturing sector and Queensland has the lowest number of manufacturing workers in three decades.”

RELEVANT CONSIDERATIONS 2. Section 37 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001 defines the meaning of “Contempt” of the Assembly as:

37 Meaning of contempt of the Assembly (1) Contempt of the Assembly means a breach or disobedience of the powers, rights or immunities, or a contempt, of the Assembly or its members or committees.

3. Standing Order 266 provides examples of Contempt to include, inter alia-.

(2) Deliberately misleading the House or a committee (by way of submission, statement, evidence or petition);

4. In order for the allegation of a deliberate misleading of the House to be made out, three elements must be proven: a. the statement must, in fact, have been misleading; b. it must be established that the member making the statement knew at the time the statement was made that it was incorrect; and c. in making it, the member must have intended to mislead the House.

5. In determining whether each element is met, the standard of proof to be met is ‘on the balance of probabilities.’

APPLICATION 6. I will deal with each element in turn.

Hr 1st Floor, 510-520 South Pine Road, Everton Park Old 4053 SE PO Box 656. Everton Park Old 4053 S 07 35351100 @[email protected] Stimmander.com.au f TimManderMPEverton 3^ @T!mManderMP Tim MANDERMP Member for Everton

THE FIRST ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER’S STATEMENT ACTUALLY MISLEADING? THE FACTS 7. While not questioning the existence of the data on which my statement was based upon, the Member for Woodridge has submitted that the only true and correct form of interpretation of this data is through a four-quarter moving average. There are therefore two facts to establish: a. the use of quarterly snapshots or other forms of statistical analysis are factually correct valid methods of interpretation, and b. the use of a four-quarter moving average does not provide proof beyond reasonable doubt that all other methods of statistical interpretation are misleading.

8. As the Member for Woodridge acknowledged in his submission, the Courier Mail’s Business and Finance News section used the same quarterly snapshot method of interpretation that I applied. The article published on 20 April 2019, stated “analysis of official Jobs data has revealed the loss of thousands of manufacturing Jobs" and “more than 18,000 manufacturing Jobs have been wiped out under the Palaszczuk Government’.

9. In addition to Queensland’s state-wide business and finance print media, eminent Queensland economist, ex-Commonwealth Treasury official and Vice-President of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland), Gene Tunny, also used the same quarterly snapshot statistical analysis method to provide a graphical representation of the underlying data on his blog, Queensland Economy Watch.

10. With both the state financial print media and the Vice-President of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) using the same statistical analysis method to interpret the underlying data as I, it appears that the Member for Woodridge’s assertion that the quarterly snapshot method is misleading and untrue is in direct contrast with industry practice.

11. I note the following excerpt from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office within the documents provided by the Member for Woodridge’s to prove that my method of analysis was misleading “The labour force statistics presented in this brief are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. As such these estimates will exhibit, in some cases, large volatility in quarterly changes. Extreme caution should be used when making inferences from these estimates”.

1st Floor, 510-520 South Pino Road, Everton Park Old 4053 OS PO Box 656, Everton Park QId 4053 ©0735351100 @ [email protected] Qtimmander.com.au f TimManderMPEverton -3^ @TirnManderMP Tim MANDERMP Member for Everton

moving average analysis it is unreasonable for the Member for Woodridge to assert that that this method of analysis proves ail others to be untrue and misleading.

13. Additionally, the Member for Woodridge has not provided Queensland manufacturing employment population data to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that the quarterly sample data is Incorrect or even the statistical significance of his preferred method of analysis.

THE SECOND ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER AWARE AT THE TIME OF MAKING THE STATEMENT THAT IT WAS INCORRECT? 14. At the time I made the statement I believed the statement was correct.

15. In fact, I still believe the statement is correct.

16. The Member for Woodridge has only provided a Ministerial Statement and supporting documents that use one method of analysis, which the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office has urged extreme caution with when making inferences, to prove another method of analysis that uses the same underlying data as false and misleading.

17. The Member for Woodridge has not provided evidence to prove that beyond reasonable doubt the method of statistical analysis I used to make my statement was incorrect.

THE THIRD ELEMENT - DID THE MEMBER INTEND TO MISLEAD THE HOUSE? 18. I did not intend to mislead in the House in making my statement as I believed it to be true when I made the statement and still true today.

CONCLUSION 19. It is unknown how the Member for Woodridge reconciles the use of a personally preferred method of statistical analysis to prove another method of analysis, which has been used by the financial print media and an eminent Queensland economist, invalid.

20. Therefore, after careful consideration of the Member for Woodridge’s submission, I have concluded that the Member is, on prima facie, attempting to use Standing Order 266 as a vehicle to further a politically expedient outcome of shutting down debate on the issue of manufacturing jobs.

21. I respectfully submit that this matter does not warrant any further attention by the House including the Ethics Committee.

1st Floor, 510-520 South Pine Road. Everton Park Old 4053 B PO Box 656, Everton Park Qld 4053 S 07 35351100 @ [email protected] Q tirnmandercom.au f TimManderMPEverton @TimManderMP Andrei MEMBER FOR GLASS HOUSE

3 June 2019

The Hon Curtis Pitt MP Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Parliament House Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

By email: [email protected]

Dear Mr Speaker

I refer to your letter of 24 May 2019, relating to a submission you have received from the Member for Woodridge dated 21 May 2019.

I appreciate the opportunity to respond to the matter.

My response is contained in the attached submission and I contend that the statement I made on 15 May 2019, that “Some 18,000 jobs were lost across manufacturing industries” is factually correct.

If you require any further information on this matter, please do not hesitate to contact my office.

Yours sincerely

Andrew Powell MP Shadow Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning Member for Glass House

ELECTORATE : 1800555016 ; 07 53188100 Suite 4/70 Maple Street, Maleny Q 4552 ;c . PO Box 727, Maleny Q 4652 u Glass.House@parliament,qld.gov.au v'v w at Andrew Powell SUBMISSION IN RESPONSE TO CLAIM MADE BY THE MEMBER FOR WOODRIDGE

BACKGROUND

1. This matter relates to a submission by the Member for Woodridge that on 15 May 2019 I made a deliberately misleading statement during a Private Members Motion contribution when I stated:

“Some 18,000jobs were lost across manufacturing industries.”

RELEVANT CONSIDERATIONS 2. Section 37 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001 defines the meaning of “Contempt” of the Assembly as:

37 Meaning of contempt of the Assembly (1) Contempt of the Assembly means a breach or disobedience of the powers, rights or immunities, or a contempt, of the Assembly or its members or committees.

3. Standing Order 266 provides examples of Contempt to include, inter alia:

(2) Deliberately misleading the House or a committee (by way of submission, statement, evidence or petition);

5. In determining whether each element is met, the standard of proof to be met is ‘on the balance of probabilities.’

APPLICATION

6. I will deal with each element in turn. THE FIRST ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER’S STATEMENT ACTUALLY MISLEADING? THE FACTS 7. While not questioning the existence of the data on which my statement was based upon, the Member for Woodridge has submitted that the only true and correct form of interpretation of this data is through a four-quarter moving average. There are therefore two facts to establish: a. the use of quarterly snapshots or other forms of statistical analysis are factually correct valid methods of interpretation, and b. the use of a four-quarter moving average does not provide proof beyond reasonable doubt that all other methods of statistical interpretation are misleading.

8. As the Member for Woodridge acknowledged in his submission, the Courier Mail’s Business and Finance News section used the same quarterly snapshot method of interpretation that I applied. The article published on 20 April 2019, stated "analysis of official jobs data has revealed the loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs” and "more than 18,000 manufacturing jobs have been wiped out under the Palaszczuk Governmenf'.

11. I note the following excerpt from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office within the documents provided by the Member for Woodridge’s to prove that my method of analysis was misleading "The labour force statistics presented in this brief are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. As such these estimates will exhibit, in some cases, large volatility in quarterly changes. Extreme caution should be used when making inferences from these estimates”.

12. It appears that the four-quarter moving average method that the Member for Woodridge asserts to be the only true method of underlying data analysis is inherently subject to sampling error. With the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office warning against making inferences from the four-quarter moving average analysis it is unreasonable for the Member for Woodridge to assert that that this method of analysis proves all others to be untrue and misleading.

13. Additionally, the Member for Woodridge has not provided Queensland manufacturing employment population data to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that the quarterly sample data is incorrect or even the statistical significance of his preferred method of analysis.

THE SECOND ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER AWARE AT THE TIME OF MAKING THE STATEMENT THAT IT WAS INCORRECT?

14. At the time I made the statement I believed the statement was correct.

15. In fact, I still believe the statement is correct.

17. The Member for Woodridge has not provided evidence to prove that beyond reasonable doubt the method of statistical analysis I used to make my statement was incorrect.

THE THIRD ELEMENT - DID THE MEMBER INTEND TO MISLEAD THE HOUSE?

18. I did not intend to mislead in the House in making my statement as I believed it to be true when I made the statement and still true today.

CONCLUSION

19. It is unknown how the Member for Woodridge reconciles the use of a personally preferred method of statistical analysis to prove another method of analysis, which has been used by the financial print media and an eminent Queensland economist, invalid.

21. I respectfully submit that this matter does not warrant any further attention by the House including the Ethics Committee. Jarrod BLEIJIE MP Member for Kawana Shadow Minister for Education and Shadow Minister f Manager of Opposition Business

6 June 2019

The Hon Curtis Pitt MP Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland Parliament House Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

By email: [email protected]

Dear Mr Spiker

I refer to your letter of 24 May 2019, relating to an allegation that you have received from the Member for Woodridge dated 21 May 2019.

I appreciate the opportunity to respond to the matter.

My response to the matters raised in your letter are contained in the attached submission.

If you require any further information on this matter, please do not hesitate to contact my office.

Yours sincerely

Member for Kawana Shadow Minister for Education Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations Manager of Opposition Business

ffr Sunshine Central, 4/3 Nicklin Way, Minyama Qld 4575 O PO Box 1200, Buddina Qld 4575 ® 07 5406 3100 @ kawana@parl!amenl.qld.gov,au Ejarrodbtefjie.com f Jarrod.Bleijie @JarrodB!eijieMP ©jarrodbleijie SUBMISSION IN RESPONSE TO CLAIM MADE BY THE MEMBER FOR WOODRIDGE

BACKGROUND

1. This matter relates to an allegation by the Member for Woodridge that on 15 May 2019 I made a deliberately misleading statement during a Private Members Motion contribution when I interjected:

“20,0001”

RELEVANT CONSIDERATIONS 2. Section 37 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001 defines the meaning of “Contempt” of the Assembly as:

37 Meaning of contempt of the Assembly (1) Contempt of the Assembly means a breach or disobedience of the powers, rights or immunities, or a contempt, of the Assembly or its members or committees.

3. Standing Order 266 provides examples of Contempt to include, inter alia:

(2) Deliberately misleading the House or a committee (by way of submission, statement, evidence or petition);

4. In order for the allegation of a deliberate misleading of the House to be made out, three elements must be proven: a. the statement must, in fact, have been misleading; b. it must be established that the member making the statement knew at the time the statement was made that it was incorrect; and c. in making It, the member must have intended to mislead the House.

5. In determining whether each element is met, the standard of proof to be met is ‘on the balance of probabilities.’

APPLICATION

6. I will deal with each element in turn and offer my own observations with respect to this matter. THE FIRST ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER’S STATEMENT ACTUALLY MISLEADING? THE FACTS

7. My Interjection of “20,000” was based on my recollection of an article that appeared in the Courier Mail on 20 April 2019.

8. With respect to the debate about data, while not questioning the existence of the data on which my interjection generally approximated upon, the Member for Woodridge has submitted that the only true and correct form of interpretation of this data is through a four-quarter moving average. There are therefore two facts to establish;

a. the use of quarterly snapshots or other forms of statistical analysis are factually correct valid methods of interpretation, and

b. the use of a four-quarter moving average does not provide proof beyond reasonable doubt that all other methods of statistical Interpretation are misleading.

9. As the Member for Woodridge acknowledged in his submission, the Courier Mail’s Business and Finance News section used the same quarterly snapshot method of interpretation. The article published on 20 April 2019, stated “analysis of official jobs data has revealed the loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs" and “more than 18,000 manufacturing jobs have been wiped out under the Palaszczuk Governmenf.

10. In addition to Queensland’s state-wide business and finance print media, eminent Queensland economist, ex-Commonwealth Treasury official and Vice-President of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland), Gene Tunny, also used the same quarterly snapshot statistical analysis method to provide a graphical representation of the underlying data on his blog, Queensland Economy Watch.

11, Both the state financial print media and the Vice-President of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) use the same statistical analysis method to interpret the underlying data as Members of the Opposition rightly did. It appears that the Member for Woodridge’s assertion that the quarterly snapshot method is misleading and untrue is in direct contrast with industry practice.

12. I note the following excerpt from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office within the documents provided by the Member for Woodridge’s to prove that my method of analysis was misleading “The labour force statistics presented in this brief are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. As such these estimates will exhibit, in some cases, large volatility in quarterly changes. Extreme caution should be used when making inferences from these estimates”.

13. It appears that the four-quarter moving average method that the Member for Woodridge asserts to be the only true method of underlying data analysis is inherently subject to sampling error. With the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office warning against making Inferences from the four-quarter moving average analysis It is unreasonable for the Member for Woodridge to assert that that this method of analysis proves all others to be untrue and misleading.

14. Additionally, the Member for Woodridge has not provided Queensland manufacturing employment population data to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that the quarterly sample data is incorrect or even the statistical significance of his preferred method of analysis.

15. That all said, my interjection of “20,000” during the broad ranging debate was based on my recollection of the details contained in the Courier Mail articled referred to above.

THE SECOND ELEMENT - WAS THE MEMBER AWARE AT THE TIME OF MAKING THE STATEMENT THAT IT WAS INCORRECT?

16. At the time I made the interjection I believed the interjection was correct.

17. The Member for Woodridge has only provided a Ministerial Statement and supporting documents that use one method of analysis, which the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office has urged extreme caution with when making inferences, to prove another method of analysis that uses the same underlying data as false and misleading.

18. The Member for Woodridge has not provided evidence to prove that beyond reasonable doubt the method of statistical analysis used by experts and the data contained in the Courier Mail article was in fact incorrect.

THE THIRD ELEMENT - DID THE MEMBER INTEND TO MISLEAD THE HOUSE? I did not intend to mislead in the House with my interjection. As I indicated, it was based on my recollection from the Courier Mail article referred to above. CONCLUSION

20. My interjection was based on my recollection of the Courier Mail story referred to above.

21. Members have the right to form their own belief based on information they have read and sourced.

22. Ministers will always have a different view to critical analysis of their policies or failures but that does not make their view the truth.

23. I respectfully submit that the matter raised by the Member for Woodridge with respect to my Interjection is simply trivial in nature and does not warrant any further action.

24, The Member for Woodridge’s complaint, Is prima facie, nothing more than an attempt to use Standing Order 266 as a vehicle to further a politically expedient outcome of shutting down debate on the issue of manufacturing jobs.

I- Deb Frecklington mp Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Trade

18 July 2019

The Hon Curtis Pitt MP Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Parliament House Alice Street BRISBANE QLD 4000

By email: [email protected]

Dear Mr Speaker

Thank you for your letter of 5 July and the opportunity to respond.

I reject the suggestion that I have misled the House. In making my statement on 13 June 2019,1 relied on three sources of information:

1. A Courier Mail report titled “18,000jobs wiped out, Manufacturing on the brink amid public sector boosf dated 20 April 2019 by Steven Wardill;

2. A chart published on 22 April 2019 on a blog titled “Queensland Economy Watch” by Gene Tunney; and

3. Statistics published by the ABS for jobs figures as at March quarter 2019.

I have legitimate and reliable sources of information to support my statement and I believe the statement, at the time it was made, to have been correct.

In his letter, the Minister went to great difficulty to mount an argument that his statistical interpretation should be preferred. In my view, the Minister was unable to prove my interpretation was incorrect, simply that it was not his preferred view.

At best, the Minister is engaging in debate about various statistical methods. As you know, many different statistical tools exist, and each statistical method infers reality based on a sample collected or interpreted in a different way. Simply preferring one method over another does not render the other method incorrect or misleading.

I reject any such suggestion by the Minister that I have committed a contempt of the Assembly.

Telqthonc 07 3838 6767 Email [email protected] Mineral House, Level 7,41 George Street, Brisbane Qld 4000 • PO Box 15057, City East Qld 4002 I have attached the information on which I relied to make my statement for your reference.

Should you wish to discuss this matter, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Yours sincerely

Leader of the Opposition Shadow Minister for Trade Member for Nananqo Employment in manufacturing, Queensland, 4-qtr moving averages of ABS Original data

Series - - Moving average —• Original data

2020

Source: https://queenslandeconomvwatch.eom/2019/04/22/mv-comments-in- saturdavs-courier-mail-on-pavroll-tax-concessions-e-q-for-brewdoq-disnevZ

Last accessed 15/07/2019. 6291.0.55.003 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May 2019 DCuality Declaration

LATEST ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/06/2019

Relevant data extract:

> Queensland; Manufacturing; 1 Employed total; 2“ Unit r 000 3'^' S^les Type Original 4 EJeta Type STOCK 5" Freque^^ Quarter 6” C^iectlon Month’’ ,2- Series Start Nov-1 s' Series End May-201S No. dbs 139 10 Series IP A54601251J 124 Feb-2013 156.2 1^ Ma^lS 155.7 Aug-20i3 174.1 127 154.8 128 Fe^2014 '’ZT-2 129 May-2014 164.0 130 Aug-2014 16^^ 131 Nov-2014 lb.5 132 Feb-2015 168.5 133 17X4 134 Aug-2bl5 135 Not-2015 1726 136 Feb-2016 1766 137iMay-2O16 165.1 138 Aug-^16 158.6 139 Nov~2016 1^3 140 1706 141 htay-2017 1556 142 Aug-^17 1^6 143 Nqv-2017 1616 144 Feb-2018 1852 145 Ntay-2018 178.5 146 Aug-2018 1006 147 Nov-2018 1756 14S Feb-2019 150.2 1 Courier Mail, Brisbane 20 Apr 2019, by Steven Wardill

General News, page 3 - 215.00 cm^ Capital City Daily - circulation 166,502 (MTWTFS-) Licensed by Copyright Agency. You may only copy or communicate this work with a licence. ID 1110610823 BRIEF OOTLOTO INDEX 1.12 PAGE 1 of 1

18,000Jobs wiped out Manufacturing on the brink amid public sector boost

EXCLUSIVE Queensland’s manufactur STEVEN WARDILL ing workforce of 150,000 is POLITICAL AFFAIRS EDITOR now the smallest it has been since Paul Keating declared MORE than 18,000 manufac Australia was experiencing the turing jobs have been wiped recession it “had to have”. out under the Palaszczuk Gov Professional, scientific and ernment with the sector now technical jobs shrunk by 9000 employing its lowest number positions. Economist Gene since the 1990s recession. Tunny warned the figures ex Analysis of official jobs data posed the sluggish nature of has revealed the loss of thou sands of manufacturing jobs Queensland’s economy and has been offset by an explosion the risk of undermining the state’s key job-generating sec in publicly-funded positions tors of mining and agriculture. over the last four years. “Our comparative advan The figures show that de tage is being able to dig stuff spite efforts to diversify the out of the ground and grow state’s economy, the tra stuff out of the ground,” he ditional strongholds of mining said. “We would be silly not to and agriculture have grown act on that.” while manufacturing and pro Construction jobs have fessional jobs have disap flourished by 31,000. However, peared. While the there are fears for the sector Government credits its train with house prices declining. ing schemes for creating new New Labour Force statistics jobs, more than two-thirds of released on Thursday showed the 173,400 positions created 4900 new positions were cre over the four years to February ated in March. However, were in health and education. Queensland’s seasonally-ad Most of these would have justed unemployment rate come courtesy of the Pal- jumped to 6.1 per cent. aszczuk Government’s public Treasurer Jackie Trad in service hiring-spree and the sisted the Government was Federally-funded National “100 per cent focused on grow Disability Insurance Scheme. ingjobs and new industries”.