AsianAsian THORPEXTHORPEX ActivitiesActivities

TetsuoTetsuo NakazawaNakazawa ChairmanChairman ofof AsianAsian THORPEXTHORPEX RegionalRegional CommitteeCommittee AndAnd DehuiDehui ChenChen andand Chun-HoChun-Ho ChoCho CoCo chairschairs ofof AsianAsian THORPEXTHORPEX RegionalRegional CommitteeCommittee OutlineOutline

IntroductionIntroduction ResearchResearch ObjectivesObjectives AsianAsian RegionalRegional CommitteeCommittee TReCTReC PlanPlan SummarySummary Natural Disasters in Asia

Most serious phenomena are: -Flood -Wind storm (Typhoon,Cyclone) -Land slide (except earthquake)

Asia is the region characterized by monsoon climate with large population, many high-impact weather events; tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall, drought, dust storm, winter storm, etc. Typhoons (2004/11-12) : A storm left 1000 dead/missing in the Miufa, Nanmadol Flash floods killed 41 in central

Updated: 2004-11-25 11:16 The death toll from a weekend typhoon and a storm in the Philippines has risen to 79 people, and at least 86 others are missing, a disaster agency said on Wednesday. Nearly 11,000 houses were destroyed and more than 23,000 buildings damaged when struck the , southeast of , during the weekend, affecting more than 250,000 people, said Neri Amparo, operations chief at the office of civil defence. (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/25/content_394781.htm) 2004-11-27 Flash floods triggered by Typhoon Muifa have killed at least 11 people in central Vietnam, officials said on Saturday. Rains started this week in the central region, wreaking havoc, but no damage has been reported to the harvest in the Central Highlands coffee belt. (http://en.ce.cn/World/Asia-Pacific/200411/27/t20041127_2410825.shtml) Floods killed over 1000 in Bangladesh and India (Aug. 2004)

Dhaka

India (HDW) August 4, 2004 - A web of dark blue and black flood water covers the region surrounding the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, in this image, acquired on August 3, 2004. The Ganges River runs into the image from the upper left corner, and the Meghna River flows down from the upper right corner. The flood waters are slowing draining away, though the capital city remains partially submerged. New reports say that the floods have claimed 740 lives in Bangladesh, and the number is expected to rise as water-borne disease spreads. The floods were triggered by heavy monsoon rains in June and July. (http://www.hdweather.com/storm/storm_218.htm) Sand & Dust Storm

Most severe in spring Over China, Korea and Japan Cause various problems in the breathing system

5th May, 1993 Research Foci in Asian THORPEX

Winter Dust Monsoon Drought Snow StormsStorm Tropics-Extra Meiyu tropics Front Tropical Indian Floodin Cyclone Monsoon g

Hemispheric Interactions MJO

Moisture transportation jets in summer monsoon season From Dehui Chen in CMA High-Impact Weather Events In India

Monsoon • Monsoon onset prediction • Active monsoon (heavy rainfall) • Duration of break and active phases of monsoon • Tropical- extra tropical interactions over NW India • Intra-seasonal oscillation of monsoon Post Monsoon/ Winter • Tropical cyclone • North East monsoon • Western Disturbances with its associated snowfall, snow storms, avalanches etc. • Onset and duration of cold spell • Occurrence of widespread fog, its onset and duration Summer • Heat Waves and dust storms RussiaRussia ParticipationParticipation toto THORPEXTHORPEX

1. Asia-THORPEX related research in Russia is in the sub-program Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies and covers the following areas: - spectral and semi-Lagrangian NWP models - ensemble prediction - typhoon prediction - stochastic modeling of “model errors” - impact of observational errors on data assimilation -KalmanFiltering - theoretic investigation of 4D-VAR techniques - probability laws of forecast-error distributions for decision making etc. 2. More collaboration and support is needed to promote Russian participation in observing experiments Dynamic Process and Predictability

- Investigating mechanisms on the generation, intensification, decay and extratropical transition of typhoons; - Investigating mechanisms on the generation and development of sub- synoptic cyclones along the Baiu/Meiyu/Changma frontal zone; - Clarifying the role of the low-level moisture distribution on the development of meso-scale convective systems; - Investigating the generation and maintenance mechanisms of Madden-Julian Oscillations and emanation of Rossby waves to extratropics. Asian THORPEX Regional Committee (ARC)

• Planning Meeting in Tokyo, Feb. 2003 • Established in May 2003 • The 1st ARC meeting in Seoul, Mar. 2004 • The 2nd ARC meeting in Beijing, Nov. 2004 • Current ARC members: China,India, Japan, Korea, Russia • Developed Asian THORPEX Implementation Plan • Wider participation to the ARC is appreciated Membership of Asian THORPEX Regional Committee (as of 23 October 2004)

China Dr. Jishan Xue Dr. Dehui Chen (Co-Chair) India Dr. S.R. Kalsi Dr. A.K. Bohra Japan Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa (Chair) Dr. Tadashi Tsuyuki Korea Dr. Chun-Ho Cho (Co-Chair) Dr. Woo-Jin Lee Russia Dr. Mikhail D. Tsyroulnikov Dr. Elena D. Astakhova ARC Responsibilities

- To identify the national and regional priorities; - To support and coordinate the planning and implementation of all THORPEX activities conducted by the region; - To organize and manage regional experiments, research activities, field campaigns, demonstration projects and other activities; - To encourage and facilitate national contributions within the region; - To be responsible for funding, logistical and other support; Asian and National THORPEX Operation Centers (ATOCs & NTOCs)

Information of Targeting Area For Forecast Improvement

ATOCs ATOC 1. HQ during Obs. Ex.

Experimental over the Globe and Data Delivery Asia (ex. Ensemble Forecast of 2. Data archive and Typhoon Track) distribution center 3. TIGGE Asian center Asian THORPEX Regional Campaigns

To improve forecasts of ANY high-impact weather events over the region, such as - tropical cyclones (high wind, tide and rain); - heavy rainfalls (flood, land slide); - winter severe snows/winds; - dust and sand storms; - heat waves - MJO related phenomena (monsoon onset, TC generation); - Rossby wave breakdown for initiation of high-impact weather events; - Beijing Olympic 2008 Demonstration Project; - droughts;

and more. Multi-model Ensemble Prediction of Typhoon Tracks

Case 1 Case 2

Case 3 Case 4

(Up to 96 hour) Current Ensemble Track Forecast Typhoon case

Observed track

Position at initial time

Black : observed track Ensemble track forecast Red : control run Blue and orange : perturbed run up to 96 hours Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts

Operational analysis at 500 hPa （12UTC 8 June 2004）

Broken circles: Areas with typhoon bogusing Red: Dropsonde data by DOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004 BAMS) Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts

BST： Observation RTN： Operational GSM with dropsonde data with typhoon bogusing NDS： Expriment 1 w/o dropsonde data with typhoon bogusing NTS： Experiment 2 w/o dropsonde data w/o typhoon bogusing

Typhoon centers are plotted 6-hourly. Sensitivity Analysis with SV Method The amplification factor weighted energy of the first 10 SVs at the initial time (left) and the final time (right). Initial time is 26th August 2002. Initial distribution of the first 10 SVs Final distribution of the first 10 SVs TE norm The growing rate of perturbations around the typhoon is relatively high.

Target Area for final SVs TE norm w/o q TE norm w/o

26th August 2002 28th August 2002 Potential New Observation Systems UAVs For Tropical Cyclones

JAXA

Smart Balloon Aerosonde21 TestTest AviationAviation ofof KoreanKorean AerosondeAerosonde ‰ Performance - Range : within 50 km - Altitude : to 4 km - Aviation: more than 20hrs ‰ Operation - Autonomous by GPS

‰ Observations - Pressure, Temperature, Humidity, Wind

With the cooperation of Korea Aeronautical Research Institute (KARI). TReC Plan for Tropical Cyclones Objective • Improvement of understanding and forecast skill on tropical cyclone up to one week Adaptive Observation • Environmental observation of a tropical cyclone by Smart Balloon, Manned and Unmanned Aircraft Potential Participant Members • Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, , Philippines, Singapore, , Vietnam, etc. Status of Domestic Plans • CMA has a special observation experiment for a typhoon landing program over South China. • Korea is conducting KEOP special observation experiment. • DOTSTAR by US, NTU THORPEX Regional Campaign (TReC) Plan • Period: Hopefully in 2008 for TOST, after 2011 for TReC Interactive Forecast System

Observation NWP Forecast Interactive “Community” System

Academic Operational User Community Center Community

Interactive “Multi-Scale” System

Local Regional International Activities Committee Activities Summary

• Asian THORPEX Regional Committee is developing the Implementation Plan. – Data Exchange – TReC Coordination – Research Collaboration – Regional Workshop – Asian THORPEX Operation Centers • More Academic Involvement • More International Collaboration • More Participation in the Region END