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The UK2070 Papers

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The UK2070 Papers The UK2070 Papers The Working Paper Series of the Series 1 UK2070 Commission Editor Philip Brown uk2070.org.uk The UK2070 Papers Series 1: August 2020 Contents 1. Six Propositions: The New Norms, Values and Politics after COVID-19 (Page 4) The Right Honourable The Lord Kerslake, Professor Ian Wray & Professor Vincent Goodstadt, UK2070 Commission An overview of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on British society; an evaluation of six emerging ‘mega-trends’ for life after COVID-19; and a discussion of how unless this opportunity to ‘recover’ the UK of its pre-existing underlying problems is seized, then these problems will be exacerbated, including the deep-rooted and unacceptable inequalities in society that the UK2070 Commission seeks to address. 2. Levelling up: why we must build a better economic vision of the North’s future (Page 11) Dr. Sarah Longlands, Director of IPPR North and UK2070 Commissioner An exposition of how COVID-19 is exposing the weaknesses of the UK’s centralised political and economic system, and is threatening to intensify our regional inequalities still further; with it therefore being time to commit radical change and an ambitious plan for building a better northern economic future. 3. COVID-19 and Economic Resilience ​(Page 22) Professor Gillian Bristow (UK2070 Commissioner) and Dr. Adrian Healy, School of Geography and Planning, Cardiff University A summary of the economic shock being brought by the COVID-19 pandemic not just to the UK economy; but to the economies of its constituent nations, regions and localities with a potentially very significant and lasting effect on demand both at home and in overseas exports markets. 4. UK2070 Through the Lens of Local Government ​(Page 29) Paul Hayes, Wakefield Council and Key Cities Group, writing in a personal capacity An examination of the potential contribution of local government, primarily in England, to be better engaged in the delivery and achievement of the UK2070 Commission; and also a range of new policy proposals to deliver radical change. 2 5. The UK2070 Commission & Bristol’s One City Approach ​(Page 38) Ed Rowberry and David Barclay,​ T​ he Bristol City Office Team A comparison of the UK2070 Commission’s vision and the ‘One City Approach’ that has been developed in Bristol over the last four years; and a proposal for a formal partnership to build synergies between the national efforts of the Commission and the city level innovations taking place in Bristol. 6. Moving Forward from Lockdown: Some Perspectives from Scotland and Wales ​(Page 42) Dr. Graeme Purves, UK2070 Commissioner A systematic look at some distinctive Scottish and Welsh dimensions to the issues addressed in ​Make No Little Plans, The Final Report of the UK2070 Commission​; and indicates how thinking is developing in the light of the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic. 7. COVID-19, Cities and Public Transport ​(Page 52) Jim Steer, Deborah Carson and John Jarvis - Director, Associate and Associate Director at Greengauge 21 An argument in favour of a pan-UK network of service hubs centred upon major towns and cities; to produce a restored, healthy and improved public transport service that is central to national economic recovery and to comply with the Government’s commitments on climate change. 8. Additional Evidence for the UK2070 Commission ​(Page 57) Professor ADH Crook CBE FACSS FRTPI, Emeritus Professor of Town & Regional Planning at the University of Sheffield Further evidence on the need for change in the capturing of land values to finance both infrastructure and affordable housing; drawing particular reference to Professor Crook’s work for the Scottish Land Commission. 9. Reinventing Town centres: A Call for Action Now! (Page 60) Dr. Nicholas Falk, Director of The URBED Trust A summary of the threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on Britain’s town centres and high streets, in the context of other challenges faced in recent decades; and a five-point set of proposals to address them. The UK2070 Papers​ are a collection of think pieces and essays produced for the UK2070 Commission since the publication of our Final Report in February 2020. For more information and contact details please visit our website - ​www.uk2070.org.uk The UK2070 Commission is an independent inquiry into the deep-rooted spatial inequalities that exist across the UK, chaired by The Right Honourable, The Lord Kerslake. It published its findings in its Final Report published in February 2020. This Report drew upon a substantial body of evidence submitted to the Commission or research commissioned by the Commission. These documents can be found on our website - www.uk2070.org.uk/publications 3 1) Six Propositions: The New Norms, Values and Politics after COVID-19 The Right Honourable The Lord Kerslake, Professor Ian Wray1 & Professor Vincent Goodstadt, UK2070 Commission Introduction COVID-19 has turned the world upside down, accelerating trends which were already latent or in progress, and inverting normal assumptions. The pandemic does not respect boundaries but its impact has not been equal, and both the virus and the impact of the response has starkly highlighted both geographic and other inequalities - be that race, age, gender or disabilities. It has added another dimension to the radical uncertainty that is faced at all levels of society - the familial, the firm, the community, the nation and globally. The pandemic itself was predictable. Its detailed trajectory, less so. However, even when the risk was fairly blatant, there was in many ways a culture of denial about the risks and radical actions that were needed. The Prime Minister himself did not change his behaviour, continuing to attend events and shake hands, resulting in his coming close to death when he contracted the virus. The combined effect has resulted in the UK being less resilient to coping with the pandemic than comparable nations. The case remains as strong, if not stronger, to address spatial inequalities. If the UK is to recover from COVID-19 and not merely languish, it must break free from the familiar and not entrench existing inequalities. There will be a ‘new norm’. The nature of this, by definition, is 2 unknown. The past will be an even poorer guide to the future than it has been. The future will be shaped by a new set of parameters, for example: ● New business behaviours with more localised or diversified supply chains. ● New trajectories and vulnerabilities for different sectors of the economy and sections of communities. ● Changed perspectives on home working and travel, and the social implications of this (e.g. gender and ethnicity). COVID-19 has also greatly expanded the ‘politically acceptable’. Disruption to the economy and social order will continue to be a fact of life. The need to respond with radical policies is however one that politicians will not need to justify. Radical policy-making need no longer be inhibited by inertia, or, as Sir Humphrey would say, by being ‘​a brave decision, Prime Minister!’​. There is a new wide window of 3 politically acceptable options, the Overton Window, which should be opened up 1 Ian Wray is also a Visiting Professor and Heseltine Institute Fellow at the University of Liverpool 2 ​https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/coronavirus-model-uncertainty-kay-king 3 ​https://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow 4 to allow new policy agendas. This is also reflected in opinion polls which indicate nearly 90% of people surveyed ​do not want life to return to ‘normal’ once the 4 pandemic is over. In particular, the emerging ‘​mega-trends’​ for life after COVID-19 has exposed the weaknesses in our current systems and their underlying problems. These will drive change and widen the scope of the ‘possible’ in relation to the UK2070 Commission’s goal of creating a fairer, stronger and safer nation. These include responding to a new era characterised by: ● An Age of Uncertainty​: The limits on the ability to act with confidence. ● Increased Fears​: The need for greater emphasis on safety as well as security. ● Local Empowerment​: The demand for supported and not controlled devolution. ● A Renewed State​: A proactive government. ● Growing Inequality​: The increased need to tackle growing social and economic divisions and inequalities across the UK, including ethnicity, gender and health. ● Beyond Austerity​: The need for a frugal economy meeting the needs of society with lower consumption of resources and building on the increased importance of social capital made viable in COVID-19. The response to, and outcomes from, these drivers of change must be shaped by social norms and values, a new culture. They highlight the importance that a long-term approach in policy thinking is required. Unless we seize this opportunity for the ‘recovery’ of the UK, its pre-existing underlying problems will be exacerbated, including the deep-rooted and unacceptable inequalities in society which the UK2070 Commission seeks to address. An Age of Uncertainty Before COVID-19, the UK already faced a very uncertain future, as set out in the UK2070 Commission’s First Report. The UK’s global position was being challenged by global competition for labour and resources, together with the potential economic impact from a hard Brexit. At home, it was already facing growing levels of debt, including consumer debt, low levels of productivity, and unsustainable patterns of urban development. The COVID-19 shock has added another layer of uncertainty. Uncertainty is now rife. We not only do not know the future trajectory of the virus, we do not know how it may affect behaviour but we know it will, including political behaviour (with associated norms and values), consumer behaviour, social behaviour and transport demand (or the absence thereof). All economic bets are off. Any assumptions about economic sectoral change have to be re-based in view of the differential impacts of COVID-19.
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