CATCHING the RHYTHM of TOKYO Tokyo Office Market Overview and Outlook COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018
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COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 Mari Kumagai Senior Director | Research| Japan +(81) 3 4572 1009 [email protected] CATCHING THE RHYTHM OF TOKYO Tokyo office market overview and outlook COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 Low net supply has enabled a market recovery better than we expected over recent years. We no Summary & Recommendations longer find much room left for occupancy gains; in our view, the current demand to supply dynamics remain tight enough to justify modest rental growth over several more quarters. A continued dip in available space with still- Since 2013, net absorption averaging 2.0% per annum has tracked above net new supply averaging strong corporate demand has led to a 0.8%, reducing the vacancy to cyclical lows. We highlight the current market status has some room for more competitive market outlook for most upward price movements as the vacancy rate hits cyclical lows. Past weak price recovery since 2012 tenants this year. should also help extend the ongoing slow yet stable market recovery. > For occupiers, we advise early planning and lease reviews given the anticipated Fig. 1: Market Cycle – Tokyo five central wards supply increase until 2021. Current demand to supply dynamics remain 15.0% tight. Lower-grade buildings in popular Feb. 2007 locations have seen faster price increases than prime office buildings. 10.0% This has prompted some landlords to reconsider their pricing strategy by fixing the lease term contracts at 5.0% current levels ahead of peers. Current > For most investors, the market outlook June 2012 0.0% should stay positive since we expect the yield gap compared to other markets to remain wide. We are confident that the Tokyo office market -5.0% provides enough depth, liquidity, and a sufficient track record to accommodate Y/Y Monthly Rent Change new money. -10.0% > In addition, more institutional investors are being pushed to replace their huge -15.0% bond investments by property Feb. 2010 investments. This is due to the minimal term premium available on their -20.0% investment horizon due to the likely 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% extension of the near-zero interest rate Vacancy % environment over the next few years. Source: Colliers International Japan Research 2 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Summary & Recommendations 1 UPWARD TRAJECTORY CONTINUES 4 ALTERNATIVE TREND SURGING 5 Key demand drivers 5 Focus on net supply figures 6 Pricing trend 11 Capital Market Implications 15 Appendix 21 3 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 UPWARD TRAJECTORY CONTINUES Solid demand and lower-than-expected supply boost rental growth and capital value appreciation Demand Rent We expect office demand will maintain an upward trajectory, keeping the We expect ongoing price growth to peak at around 5% within the next For the year ahead, same trend with the total occupied area in the central five wards expanding several quarters before tapering down to a more sustainable compound new buildings to by about 2% year over year since February 2011. Key demand drivers annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8%. We expect lower-grade buildings to remain the trends for functional consolidation in more convenient locations be completed are maintain faster price increases above the current 5.2% until their average within the Greater Tokyo Metropolitan Area. We expect net absorption to rents move closer to higher grades as the existing price gap in the same almost being filled, remain stable – tracking at around 2.7 % of existing supply or 150,000 tsubo districts offers up to a 40% discount. which is likely to (495,900 sq metres) on cyclical average – as more tenants are rushing to However, the overall price response remains weak especially on higher support a modest secure their future occupancy needs over the next eighteen months, leading grades. For the next twelve months, we expect the CBD prime rent index to upward trajectory to more immediate concerns about the lowest vacancy rates since 2007. in the overall rent stay flattish with limited upside as more tenants are reaching out for lower Supply grade buildings. We also do not expect the overall rent growth to outpace level; the latest inflation averaging 1.1% over the next five years. CBD prime office We expect increasing supply for late 2019-2021, with annual expansion rent index has averaging 2.8% of stock. However, we highlight that the impact of our Capital Value and Yield expected supply increase, after adjusting for withdrawal from demolition, is continued to We anticipate capital values to inch up at least 3% per annum as more old much less sanguine on a net basis averaging 2.1 % of stock. Our more bullish increase for 17 buildings are being redeveloped in central locations, an increasingly baseline forecast than market consensus has incorporated the demolition of consecutive prominent trend since 2003. Capital value appreciates in tandem with the older buildings that has already eliminated about 45% of new supply over better earning power investors expect on rising rents. quarters with the the past four years. We expect the scale of net new supply to decline to a latest annual more sustainable 1.7% after 2022, providing an interesting market entry Real estate investors can prevail over bond investors under the Bank of growth of 4.2%. opportunity for long-term investors. Japan’s zero interest rate policy. Massive government debt will also need to stay affordable in the interest of the government over a longer investment Vacancy horizon. Our baseline scenario thus does not assume a benchmark rate We expect the overall vacancy level to remain at the current record low and increase of more than 25 basis points over the next five years. below 3.0%, as the net new supply level is recovering closer to the net Looking ahead, a wider yield gap than in any other Asian market – reaching a absorption trend from mid-2019. With near-complete shutdown of available record level of nearly 4% – is prompting more money inflows to real estate new supply due to larger pre-commitment prior to building completion, investment. We expect this trend to continue at least for the next few years. vacancy should stay low even with minimal growth in demand. Our base case thus does not assume rising vacancy at least until the end of 2019. More tenants are reaching out for lower grade buildings, adding to the race to secure available CBD space at the same price range below their typical budget ceiling up to JPY30,000 per tsubo (USD80.3 per sq metre). 4 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 ALTERNATIVE TREND SURGING Fig. 2: Employment growth in Tokyo by industry (2008–2017) Growing employment as a hub of corporate Medical & Welfare headquarters in leasing sectors The outlook for domestic demand is solid and should support growth in 2018 Professional Services and 2019. Stable employment inflows into Central Tokyo continue to act as a key demand driver for office space requirements (Fig. 2). We expect Tokyo’s Information & Technology net employment growth to continue, averaging 0.7% over the next five years according to Oxford Economics. Education Increasing labour participation from younger foreigners, seniors and women has also been a boon to a relatively inflexible labour market since the start of Abenomics in 2013. Additionally, more retiring baby boomers will likely need Insurance & Financial Serrvices to work and supplement their diminishing income. We see a small upside to the Central Tokyo office worker trend, forecasting negative employment Real Estate growth from 2022. In our view, a secular shift toward digitalisation will require more centralised Transportation & Delivery Services space requirements in each industry, a positive to Tokyo Office Markets. Over the past decade, Tokyo’s employment growth has remained high in Information &Technology (+35%) and Professional Services (+36%), followed Hotel & Hospitality by Banks, Insurance and Other Financial Services (+19%) and Real Estate (+18%). This contrasts with negative employment growth in Manufacturing (- 17%) and Construction (- 12%) as more processes are automated, reducing Retail & Wholesale the need to maintain the same space requirements within CBDs. More aging baby boomers have also pushed up labour-intensive Living & Enterntainment employment in Medical and Welfare (+50%), a trend which we expect to continue for another few decades. Reflecting Tokyo’s status as capital city Construction with many corporate headquarters, Trade, Transportation & Communication (38%), Business Services (23%), and Financial Services (10%) are also driving the city’s GDP trends. Manufacturing Looking ahead, business services for productivity enhancement are likely to -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% remain the most powerful source of future job creation, with the unemployment rate edging lower from the current 2.9% to 2.7% by 2022. Source: Colliers International Japan Research, Metropolitan Government of Tokyo 5 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | TOKYO | 9 OCTOBER 2018 With a tight labour condition overall, it is not surprising to see more flexible Fig. 3: Tokyo Central 5 Wards: Demand and Supply (sq metres) work arrangements are lifting temporary office demand; almost 20% of major companies have started to offer alternative work-place arrangements New Supply Net Take Up according to the latest Nikkei market survey. New market players are tightening the market demand when available office area is increasingly 800,000 limited; the still-small area occupied by WeWork has increased by 12,000 tsubo (39,675 sq metres) per year, equivalent to as much as 10% of available 600,000 vacant stock as of August 2018. 400,000 All in, stable demand has outstripped tight supply since 2013 (Fig.