Community Relations Council Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report Number Five October 2018 Ann Marie Gray, Jennifer Hamilton, Gráinne Kelly, Brendan Lynn, Martin Melaugh and Gillian Robinson Peace Monitoring Report The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report Number Five October 2018 Ann Marie Gray, Jennifer Hamilton, Gráinne Kelly, Brendan Lynn, Martin Melaugh and Gillian Robinson Ulster University 3 Peace Monitoring Report SOURCES AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report draws mainly on statistics which are in the public domain. Datasets from various government departments and public bodies in Northern Ireland have been used and comparisons made with figures produced by similar organisations in England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland. Using this variety of sources means that no standard model applies across the different departments and jurisdictions. In some cases there have been changes in how or what data has been collected which affects our ability to provide historical perspective. For some indicators we are reliant on survey-based data. Where relevant and possible we include comparative international data. The report also draws on qualitative data and research reports. The contents of the report are the responsibility of the authors, generously assisted by the Advisory Group, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Community Relations Council, the commissioning body. Cover photograph: Courtesy of Niall Carson/ PA Archive © Published by the Community Relations Council, Equality House, 7-9 Shaftesbury Square, Belfast BT2 7DP (www.nicrc.org.uk). CRC gratefully acknowledges the support of the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust for this publication. All enquiries to: Dr Martin Melaugh ([email protected]) ISBN: 978 1 898276 72 2 4 Foreword FOREWORD A forward flow to the peace process in Northern Ireland is not inevitable. While there were two steps forward and only one step back a sense of hope and ambition defined the process, and confidence empowered fruitful actions. In recent times, however, there is a sense and reality of stasis – a society standing still, a political process paused, and civil society frustrated at what might have been while praying it will not become another lost opportunity. This peace monitor report, the fifth in a series of monitors, highlights the challenges facing our peace and political processes in the honest and comprehensive way that is needed for all people who can influence for the better going forward. The challenges are significant, and overcoming them will be more exhausting still because they exist in a political vacuum. Out of such situations come clear choices; another cross roads moment is upon us. Indifference to the peace process is as damaging as lack of understanding. Silence affords ignorance a respectability and acceptance. We must all ask ourselves will we be bystanders or participants? Our thanks are due to the team that researched and wrote this peace monitor report at Ulster University independent of the Community Relations Council. That team of authors led by Gillian Robinson included Ann Marie Gray, Jennifer Hamilton, Gráinne Kelly, Brendan Lynn and Martin Melaugh. Their colleagues from Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, Richard Johnston and Jordan Buchanan, contributed the section on the economy. They have provided us with a peace monitor report that highlights the challenges so succinctly yet comprehensively as a tool for now and as a record for historians in the future. I would also like to thank the advisory group which contributed so much to the report and its final flavour. I’d particularly highlight the good humour and incisive mind of the advisory group chair, Adrian Guelke, and all of the other members who made this such an enjoyable and thought-provoking process: James Anderson, Frank Gaffikin, Neil Gibson, Paddy Hillyard, Tony McCusker, Jennifer Todd and Sophie Long, who represented the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. The Community Relations Council would like to thank the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) for funding the NI Peace Monitoring Report. Peter Osborne, Chair Community Relations Council 5 Foreword 6 Peace Monitoring Report PEACE MONITORING REPORT SOURCES & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 FOREWORD 5 TEN KEY POINTS 11 INTRODUCTION 15 1.1 The indicator framework 16 1.2 The limitations of research 17 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 18 1. The economy 18 1.1 Economic growth 19 1.2 Income 20 1.3 Wellbeing 21 1.4 Productivity 22 1.5 Labour Market 23 1.6 Tourism 26 1.7 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 27 1.8 Brexit 28 1.9 Conclusions 28 2. Society 29 DIMENSION ONE 39 Political progress 1. INTER-PARTY TALKS 39 1.1 Talking the talk: March 2017 – February 2018 39 2. BREXIT 44 2.1 Review of the referendum result and support for Brexit 44 2.2 Northern Ireland and the border in the Brexit negotiations 46 2.3 Special status and EU citizen rights 49 2.4 Brexit and support for a united Ireland 52 2.5 Likelihood of violence caused by changes at the open border 54 3. INSTITUTIONS – ASSEMBLY; NORTH-SOUTH; AND EAST-WEST 57 3.1 The Executive and the Assembly 57 3.2 The Departments 57 3.3 Direct Rule? 60 3.4 Other institutions 60 3.5 Political issues and logjams 62 Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) Scheme 62 The Politics of Language 64 Petition of Concern (PoC) 66 7 Peace Monitoring Report Historical Institutional Abuse Inquiry (HIA) 68 National Assets Management Agency (NAMA) 69 4. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOLLOWING RE-ORGANISATION 70 5. DEALING OR NOT DEALING WITH THE PAST 74 5.1 Justice and truth recovery 76 5.2 Legacy inquests 79 5.3 A pension for victims? 80 5.4 Moving forwards or standing still? 81 6 PARTY POLITICS AND ELECTIONS 82 6.1 The 2017 Assembly election results 82 6.2 The 2017 Westminster election 84 6.3 The Confidence and Supply Agreement 86 DIMENSION TWO 89 The sense of safety 1. OVERALL CRIME RATES 89 1.1 The state of the rule of law 89 1.2 Changing patterns of crime 91 2. HATE CRIME 96 2.1 Hate crime trends 97 2.2 Hate crime and intolerance 99 3. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND SEXUAL CRIME 101 3.1 Domestic violence 101 3.2 Sexual crime 103 4. OUTCOMES OF CRIMES RECORDED BY POLICE 104 5. THE PARAMILITARIES 106 5.1 Overview 106 Paramilitary killings 107 Paramilitary attacks 108 5.2 Dissident republican and main-stream paramilitaries 111 5.3 Loyalist paramilitaries 111 5.4 Stormont Executive policy response 112 6. POLICING 114 6.1 Strength and composition 114 6.2 Religion, gender and ethnicity 115 6.3 The use of police powers 117 6.4 PSNI – audit and accountability 119 8 Peace Monitoring Report 7. PRISONS 125 7.1 The prison population 125 7.2 Prison conditions and reform 127 8. SAFETY IN THE PUBLIC SPHERE 128 8.1 Internal perceptions 128 8.2 External perceptions 129 9. PEACE WALLS 129 DIMENSION THREE 131 Wealth, poverty and inequality 1. OVERVIEW 131 2.WEALTH 131 2.1 Wealth and inequality 131 3. INCOME INEQUALITY 132 3.1 Income inequality in the UK 132 3.2 Income differentials in Northern Ireland 135 3.3 Earnings 137 4. POVERTY RATES 141 5. HOUSING 143 6.WELFARE REFORM 146 7. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 148 7.1 Unemployment 148 7.2 Employment 148 7.3 Economic inactivity 150 7.4 Employment and religion 153 7.5. Quality and nature of work 154 8. EQUALITY AND INEQUALITY IN EDUCATION 156 8.1 Primary education 157 8.2 Post primary education 158 8.3 Higher education 163 9. HEALTH CARE OUTCOMES AND INEQUALITIES IN HEALTH 164 9.1 Health service waiting times 164 9.2 Population health 165 10. HOW DOES THE NI ASSEMBLY PERFORM IN RELATION TO SOCIAL POLICY MAKING? 166 9 Peace Monitoring Report DIMENSION FOUR 169 Cohesion and sharing 1. THE POLICY CONTEXT 169 2.WELLBEING 172 2.1 The measurement of happiness 174 2.2 The measure of unhappiness – suicide, self-harm and poor mental health 174 3. SHARING AND SEPARATION IN HOUSING 175 3.1 Public housing 175 3.2 Residential segregation 177 4. SHARING AND SEPARATION OF SCHOOLS 179 4.1 The management of schooling 179 4.2 Integrated and shared education 182 5. SHARING PUBLIC SPACE 184 5.1 Culture wars 184 5.2 Flags 184 5.3 The Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture and Tradition 187 5.4 Bonfires 189 5.5 Parading 193 6. ARTS AND SPORTS 195 6.1 The arts 195 6.2 Sport 196 7. PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC LIFE 199 7.1 Women’s representation 199 7.2 Ethnic minority population 200 7.3 LGBT rights and visibility 202 8. THE STATE OF COMMUNITY RELATIONS 204 9. CIVIL SOCIETY AND PEACEBUILDING 206 REFERENCES 208 10 Peace Monitoring Report TEN KEY POINTS 1. The absence of a functioning devolved government in Northern Ireland (NI) since January 2017 has resulted in legislative and political paralysis. Decisions requiring ministerial accountability have ground to a halt in the absence of willingness on the part of central government to impose direct rule, despite the persistent failure of talks to revive the devolved government. The NI Executive ceased to function at 5.00 pm on Monday 9 January 2017. Elected ministers ceased to hold their offices on 2 March 2017, the date of the NI Assembly election. Since that date there has been no devolved government in the region. Instead, civil servants have taken decisions based on previous policy and budgets, and two Secretaries of State have acted at Westminster to ensure that a new budget was put in place in 2017 and 2018. In a legal challenge, the High Court ruled that a civil servant did not have the power to give the go-ahead to a major infrastructure project and thus called into question a range of significant decisions taken since March 2017.