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ITC: Remains Resilient Consumer Staples / India ITC IN Consumer Staples / India 17 October 2013 ITC ITC Target (INR): 270.00 392.00 Upside: 15.4% ITC IN 15 Oct price (INR): 339.80 Remains resilient 1 Buy • ITC continues to enjoy strong pricing power in its cigarette 2 Outperform (unchanged) business with little sales-volume backlash 3 Hold • Cigarette EBIT growth should be maintained at a high-teen 4 Underperform level; Other FMCG business should turn profitable from FY14 5 Sell • Raising target price to INR392: ITC remains our top pick in the consumer space, reaffirming Outperform How do we justify our view? months. On the back of these price ■ How we differ increases and cost-efficiency In this report we highlight potential initiatives in its cigarette division, cigarette price hikes by brand and we expect ITC’s EBIT margin to rise analyze their impact on EBIT growth. for FY14. We forecast its Other Forecast revisions (%) Mihir Shah FMCG segment to turn profitable for Year to 31 Mar 14E 15E 16E (91) 22 6622 1020 a full year for the first time in FY14. Revenue change 5.1 n.a. n.a. [email protected] Net profit change 3.3 n.a. n.a. Core EPS (FD) change 1.1 n.a. n.a. We now forecast a 1% YoY sales- volume decline in cigarettes for FY14 Source: Daiwa forecasts ■ What's new (6% YoY growth before) and expect ITC continues to demonstrate an the DSFT segment to aid in mitigating Share price performance ability to manage the bottom-line the volume decline. We forecast ITC’s (INR) (%) growth of its cigarette division by cigarette EBIT to rise by 18.2% for 380 125 350 116 achieving a fine balance between FY14 and 19.8% YoY for FY15. We 320 108 price rises and sales volume. We raise our FY14E EPS by 1.1%, expect ITC to remain one of the 290 99 reflecting higher sales. We forecast an 260 90 most resilient consumer companies EPS CAGR of 19.2% for FY13-16. Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 in India, insulated from the current ITC Ltd (LHS) Relative to SENSEX Index (RHS) weak economic environment. ■ What we recommend ITC remains our preferred pick in ■ What's the impact 12-month range 273.50-376.00 the consumer space. We raise our Market cap (USDbn) 43.70 ITC increased the weighted average six-month target price to INR392 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 46.71 price in its cigarette portfolio by 16% (from INR270), as we roll forward Shares outstanding (m) 7,955 Major shareholder British American Tobacco (31.2%) following the budget in March this our SOTP valuation components to year, but only saw sales volume fall FY15E (from FY14E), and now Financial summary (INR) by about 2% YoY for 1Q FY14 due to assign a target PER of 28x (formerly the new deluxe filter (DSFT) Year to 31 Mar 14E 15E 16E 25x) for its cigarette business. We Revenue (m) 365,127 425,625 495,477 cigarette segment, which made up believe the stock deserves to trade at Operating profit (m) 122,192 147,676 177,689 for the volume decline in the regular a higher PER as it is one of the few Net profit (m) 89,721 107,737 128,953 filter (RSFT) cigarette segment. Core EPS (fully-diluted) 11.278 13.543 16.210 consumer companies with good EPS change (%) 17.9 20.1 19.7 visibility on delivering consistently ITC recently raised prices by 3.2%, Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 1.2 2.1 5.5 high-teen EBIT growth in the PER (x) 30.1 25.1 21.0 which we expect to have very little current uncertain environment, and Dividend yield (%) 1.8 2.2 2.6 impact on its sales volume. We thus reaffirm our Outperform (2) DPS 6.150 7.385 8.839 forecast it to raise prices by another PBR (x) 10.2 8.9 7.7 rating. The key risk to our call would EV/EBITDA (x) 20.1 16.6 13.7 2.6% on its Wills Navy Cut, Scissors be lower-than-expected cigarette and Bristol brands in the coming ROE (%) 36.2 38.0 39.5 EBIT growth. Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 12 Consumer Staples / India ITC IN 17 October 2013 1 Buy How do we justify our view? 2 Outperform (unchanged) 3 Hold Growth outlook 4 Underperform Valuation 5 Sell Earnings revisions Growth outlook ITC: growth in sales and EPS (YoY) We forecast a sales CAGR for ITC of 16.2% for FY13-16, 25% and expect most segments to record relatively steady increases over the period. For the cigarette division, we 20% forecast a sales-volume decline of 1% YoY for FY14 and an average increase of 4% YoY for FY15-16. We forecast 15% an EPS CAGR of 19.2% over FY13-16, driven largely by 10% operating-profit margin expansion for the cigarette business. 5% 0% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Net sales growth EPS growth Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation ITC: PER bands We use an SOTP methodology to value ITC. About 80% (INR) of our valuation comes from its cigarette business and 400 about 10% from its other FMCG business. The stock has 350 been rerated over the past three years along with many 300 of its domestic peers, as investors have assigned 250 increased multiples to the company’s defensive earnings 200 profile in India’s weak economic environment. 150 100 We now assign an FY15E PER of 28x (25x for FY14E 50 previously) to the cigarette business. We apply a 10% Jul-08 Jul-13 Apr-07 Oct-09 Apr-12 Jun-06 Jan-11 Jun-11 Mar-10 Feb-08 Feb-13 Nov-06 Sep-07 Dec-08 Aug-10 Nov-11 Sep-12 premium to our previous multiple due to the increased May-09 visibility we see and confidence we have in the company ITC Price (INR) 15x 21x 26x 32x to deliver high-teen EBIT growth over the next few Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts years. Earnings revisions ITC: consensus EPS revisions The Bloomberg-consensus EPS forecasts for FY14 and (INR) FY15 have changed very little over the past 16 months. 14 Our EPS forecasts are higher than those of the 13 consensus by 1.2% for FY14, 2.1% for FY15 and 5.5% for 12 FY16, reflecting our expectations for lower sales-volume 11 decline in cigarettes for FY14 and higher cigarette EBIT growth. 10 9 8 Jul-12 Jul-13 Apr-12 Apr-13 Oct-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Sep-13 May-12 May-13 Consensus EPS (INR) - FY14E Consensus EPS (INR) - FY15E Source: Bloomberg - 2 - Consumer Staples / India ITC IN 17 October 2013 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Mar 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Cigarettes volume growth (%) (2.5) 6.7 (2.8) 6.0 1.1 (1.0) 4.0 4.0 Cigarettes EBIT growth (YoY %) 16.3 18.0 17.5 19.8 20.9 18.2 19.8 20.2 FMCG others EBIT (INRm) (4,896) (3,803) (3,315) (2,151) (889) 656 1,929 3,697 Profit and loss (INRm) Year to 31 Mar 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Cigarette Revenues 80,755 97,964 111,309 129,543 147,384 166,432 194,891 228,824 Other FMCG Revenues 30,313 36,535 44,766 55,446 69,979 83,974 99,090 116,926 Other Revenue 54,494 56,860 69,672 80,265 98,913 114,721 131,644 149,727 Total Revenue 165,561 191,359 225,747 265,254 316,275 365,127 425,625 495,477 Other income 00000000 COGS (59,057) (69,870) (81,610) (96,442) (121,182) (140,946) (163,756) (189,830) SG&A (55,780) (58,248) (67,449) (76,715) (83,350) (92,442) (103,152) (115,781) Other op.expenses (5,809) (6,439) (6,991) (7,455) (8,591) (9,547) (11,041) (12,177) Operating profit 44,916 56,802 69,697 84,643 103,152 122,192 147,676 177,689 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (187) (648) (709) (805) (872) (848) (824) (800) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 5,119 6,303 5,361 7,844 8,776 9,628 10,425 11,367 Pre-tax profit 49,848 62,457 74,349 91,682 111,057 130,972 157,278 188,256 Tax (16,254) (20,349) (23,655) (28,458) (34,121) (40,239) (48,322) (57,839) Min. int./pref. div./others (348) (426) (515) (643) (855) (1,011) (1,219) (1,463) Net profit (reported) 33,246 41,682 50,179 62,581 76,081 89,721 107,737 128,953 Net profit (adjusted) 33,246 41,682 50,179 62,581 76,081 89,721 107,737 128,953 EPS (reported)(INR) 4.403 5.419 6.447 7.959 9.564 11.278 13.543 16.210 EPS (adjusted)(INR) 4.403 5.419 6.447 7.959 9.564 11.278 13.543 16.210 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(INR) 4.403 5.419 6.447 7.959 9.564 11.278 13.543 16.210 DPS (INR) 1.849 4.964 4.424 4.474 5.215 6.150 7.385 8.839 EBIT 44,916 56,802 69,697 84,643 103,152 122,192 147,676 177,689 EBITDA 50,724 63,241 76,688 92,098 111,743 131,739 158,717 189,865 Cash flow (INRm) Year to 31 Mar 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Profit before tax 49,848 62,457 74,349 91,682 111,057 130,972 157,278 188,256 Depreciation and amortisation 5,810 6,440 6,992 7,456 8,591 9,547 11,041 12,177 Tax paid (15,095) (20,744) (22,784) (24,153) (30,154) (40,239) (48,322) (57,839) Change in working capital (2,267) (848) 807 (5,726) (11,009) (5,170) (6,150) (7,038) Other operational CF items (3,312) (2,733) (4,276) (6,701) (7,467) (1,011) (1,219) (1,463) Cash flow from operations 34,985 44,573 55,087 62,557 71,018 94,099 112,628 134,091 Capex (17,609) (12,484) (14,982) (24,678) (26,443) (21,239) (22,964) (25,575) Net (acquisitions)/disposals 3,461 (21,734) 6,306 2,000 (420) (10,334) (12,401) (14,881) Other investing CF items 316 615 (37) (4,260) (11,951) 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing (13,831) (33,603) (8,713) (26,938) (38,814) (31,573) (35,365) (40,456) Change in debt (96) (810) (68) 169 (117) (25) (25) (25) Net share issues/(repurchases) 448 7,207 9,038 7,650 9,223000 Dividends paid (13,429) (14,487) (38,662) (35,026) (35,916) (48,922) (58,746) (70,314) Other financing CF items (2,388) (2,614) (6,105) (5,839) (6,290) 640 1,801 1,934 Cash flow from financing (15,466) (10,704) (35,797) (33,047) (33,100) (48,308) (56,970) (68,406) Forex effect/others 00000000 Change in cash 5,688 266 10,577 2,572 (895) 14,218 20,293 25,229 Free cash flow 17,376
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