Pacific Islands - Online Climate Outlook Forum (OCOF) No. 138 Country: TABLE 1: Monthly Rainfall

Feb-2019 Dec- Jan-2019 Station (include data 2018 Total period) 33%tile 67%tile Median (mm) Rank Total Total Rainfall (mm) (mm) (mm) Momase Region (1944-2019) 352.0 303.0 596.0 232.2 335.0 267.1 71/71 Nadzab (1973-2019) 217.0 343.6 179.6 104.1 187.4 152.5 28/45 (1894-2019) 119.6 189.0 126.8 103.7 140.7 117.8 36/63 (1918-2019) 250.0 425.8 305.0 208.4 317.3 270.2 42/65 Highlands Region (1948-2019) 286.8 196.8 195.3 267.7 232.5 New Guinea Islands Region Momote (1949-2019) 350.0 282.9 167.6 200.9 303.5 233.5 13/63 Kavieng (1916-2019) 344.2 213.6 226.2 303.3 261.0 Southern Region Misima (1917-2019) 303.6 208.8 208.2 341.7 274.6 (1875-2019) 122.8 593.4 64.8 129.3 220.3 170.2 6/131

TABLE 2: Three-month Rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019

Verification: SCOPIC forecast probabilities* Three-month Total 33%tile 67%tile Median Consistent, based on NINO3.4 September-October 2018 Station Rank Near- consistent, Rainfall (mm) B-N N A-N LEPS Inconsistent? Momase Region Madang (1944-2019) 1251.0 Above normal 926.2 1103.8 1014.7 54/69 13 46 41 10 Near-consistent Nadzab (1973-2019) 740.2 Above normal 423.8 510.0 489.0 43/43 26 31 43 3 Consistent Wewak (1894-2019) 435.4 Normal 361.8 460.2 412.0 38/62 41 31 28 3 Near-consistent Vanimo (1918-2019) 980.8 Above normal 718.6 918.0 808.2 43/58 31 36 33 -3 Near-consistent Highlands Region Goroka (1948-2019) 634.4 743.0 702.0 36 27 37 -2 New Guinea Islands Region Momote (1949-2019) 800.5 Normal 758.8 915.4 819.2 29/62 28 36 36 0 Near-consistent Kavieng (1917-2019) 841.1 989.9 931.3 15 45 40 10 Southern Region Misima (1917-2019) 676.7 877.7 766.5 39 36 25 1 Port Moresby (1875-2019) 781.0 Above normal 421.5 558.8 468.6 122/127 47 34 19 12 Inconsistent

TABLE 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using SCOPIC for April to June 2019 Predictor and Period used: NINO3.4 for January to February 2019

Hit-rate Below Median Above LEPS (%) (%) Station Median Rainfall Median [whole [whole (prob) (mm) (prob) numbers] numbers] Momase Region Madang (1944-2019) 61 1010.4 39 4 59 Nadzab(1973-2019) 50 322.3 50 -3 31 Wewak (1894-2019) 50 642.4 50 -2 21 Vanimo (1918-2019) 48 653.0 52 -2 51 Highlands Region Goroka (1948-2019) 47 397.2 53 -2 48 New Guinea Islands Region Momote (1949-2019) 51 833.1 49 -2 45 Kavieng (1916-2019) 46 796.1 54 -1 55 Southern Region Misima (1917-2019) 64 743.1 36 11 62 Port Moresby (1875-2019) 66 244.3 34 13 64

Hit-rate Below 33%ile 67%ile Above LEPS (%) Normal (%) Station Normal Rainfall Rainfall Normal [whole (prob) [whole (prob) (mm) (mm) (prob) numbers] numbers] Momase Region Madang (1944-2019) 43 902.7 39 1075.3 18 9 43 Nadzab (1973-2019) 35 270.7 29 350.3 36 -3 26 Wewak (1894-2019) 37 570.2 30 671.4 33 -1 39 Vanimo (1918-2019) 31 586.5 36 739.8 33 -2 26 Highlands Region Goroka (1948-2019) 34 333.0 32 425.3 34 -3 17 New Guinea Islands Region Momote (1949-2019) 38 710.8 27 897.1 35 -1 37 Kavieng (1916-2019) 29 697.4 33 889.1 38 0 20 Southern Region Misima (1917-2019) 48 610.6 39 883.3 13 18 46 Port Moresby (1875-2019) 51 195.4 27 288.9 22 16 47

TABLE 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for April to June 2019

Below 33%ile 67%ile Above Normal Station Normal Rainfall Rainfall Normal (prob) (prob) (mm) (mm) (prob) Momase Region Madang 64 878.0 12 1091.0 24 Nadzab 67 249.0 12 342.0 21 Wewak 58 560.0 5 671.0 37 New Guinea Islands Region Momote 49 703.0 18 860.0 33 Kavieng 52 689.0 6 838.0 42 Southern Region Misima 91 612.0 5 823.0 4 Port Moresby 88 189.0 5 294.0 7 65 548.0 30 816.0 5

Summary Statements Rainfall for February 2019:

Rainfall was below-normal at Port Moresby and Momote, normal at Nadzab, Wewak and Vanimo and above normal at Madang. Madang recorded its highest February rainfall on record, while Port Moresby recorded its sixth-driest February on record. At the time of compiling this publication, no reports of February rainfall were received from Goroka, Kavieng and Misima.

Accumulated rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019, including outlook verification:

Normal rainfall was received at Wewak and Momote, and above normal occurred at all other monitoring stations. Port Moresby recorded its sixth-wettest December – February on record, mainly due to record-high January rainfall.

The outlook was consistent at Nadzab, inconsistent at Port Moresby and near-consistent at all other stations.

Three months total was not available for Misima, Kavieng and Goroka.

Outlooks for April to June 2019:

1. SCOPIC:

Port Moresby: The outlook favours below normal rainfall.

Madang and Misima: The outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, normal the next most likely and above normal is the least likely.

Nadzab, Wewak, Vanimo, Momote, Kavieng and Goroka: The outlook offers little guidance, as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar.

Confidence ranges from very low to good.

2. POAMA:

The rainfall outlook favours below normal across the country.

NB: The X LEPS % score has been categorised as follows:

Very Low: X < 0.0 Low: 0 ≤ X < 5 Moderate 5 ≤ X < 10 Good: 10 ≤ X < 15 High: 15≤ X < 25

Very High: 25 ≤X < 35 Exceptional: X ≥ 35

Table: 5 Stakeholder Engagement- Evaluations of how effective NMS engage with stakeholders

Country Date: Stakeholder Total Number Number of Number of of Participants male female February 2019 PNG CREWS PNG All key 38 29 9 Inception stakeholders Workshop Climate Bulletin EAR Watch Monthly Climate Briefing Ocean Bulletin