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Reconciling the Climate and Ozone Response to the 1257 CE Mount

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Reconciling the Climate and Ozone Response to the 1257 CE Mount Reconciling the climate and ozone response to the 1257 CE Mount Samalas eruption David C. Wadea ,Celine´ M. Vidalb , N. Luke Abrahama,c , Sandip Dhomsed , Paul T. Griffithsa,c , James Keeblea,c, Graham Mannd , Lauren Marshalla , Anja Schmidta,b , and Alexander T. Archibalda,c,1 aCentre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, United Kingdom; bDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom; cNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, United Kingdom; and dSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom Edited by Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved September 3, 2020 (received for review November 25, 2019) The 1257 CE eruption of Mount Samalas (Indonesia) is the source more SO2 than the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora, the Northern of the largest stratospheric injection of volcanic gases in the Com- Hemisphere temperature response, reconstructed by tree-ring mon Era. Sulfur dioxide emissions produced sulfate aerosols that maximum latewood density (MXD) methods, is relatively similar cooled Earth’s climate with a range of impacts on society. The (7, 8). This has been a puzzle for the climate modeling com- coemission of halogenated species has also been speculated to munity. Timmreck et al. (15) and Stoffel et al. (8) were able to have led to wide-scale ozone depletion. Here we present simu- simulate a broad agreement between their Atmosphere Ocean lations from HadGEM3-ES, a fully coupled Earth system model, General Circulation Model (AO-GCM) simulations and tree- with interactive atmospheric chemistry and a microphysical treat- ring based reconstructions, but Stoffel et al. have shown that the ment of sulfate aerosol, used to assess the chemical and climate surface temperature response was very sensitive to the assumed impacts from the injection of sulfur and halogen species into the eruption month and the height of injection (8), while Timmreck stratosphere as a result of the Mt. Samalas eruption. While our et al. found that the size of the prescribed aerosol effective radii model simulations support a surface air temperature response were very important (15). to the eruption of the order of −1◦C, performing well against Both the changes in aerosol number concentrations and size multiple reconstructions of surface temperature from tree-ring and gas-phase composition (chemistry) are important aspects records, we find little evidence to support significant injections of the role of large injections of sulfur (like those from EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC, AND PLANETARY SCIENCES of halogens into the stratosphere. Including modest fractions of Mt. Samalas) on climate (16, 17). Changes in aerosol properties the halogen emissions reported from Mt. Samalas leads to sig- and changes in chemistry are strongly coupled. Large erup- nificant impacts on the composition of the atmosphere and on tions, like Mt. Samalas, can inject their volatile gases into the surface temperature. As little as 20% of the halogen inventory stratosphere. In this region, volcanic sulfate aerosols [which scat- from Mt. Samalas reaching the stratosphere would result in catas- ter back sunlight and cool the planet (18)] are formed from trophic ozone depletion, extending the surface cooling caused by the oxidation of SO2 in the gas phase by the hydroxyl radi- the eruption. However, based on available proxy records of sur- cal (OH). Volcanic sulfate aerosols grow through microphysical face temperature changes, our model results support only very processes of condensation and coagulation (19), with the size minor fractions (1%) of the halogen inventory reaching the strato- of the aerosols being important for their climate effects (20). sphere and suggest that further constraints are needed to fully There is an important self-limiting effect of sulfur oxidation in resolve the issue. Significance Samalas j climate j ozone j modeling volcanic impacts The Mount Samalas eruption in 1257, one of the largest explo- he eruption of Mount Samalas in 1257 (Indonesia), with Vol- sive volcanic eruptions in the Common Era, has proven a Tcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7, was identified by Lavigne complex case for climate models which have generally overes- et al. (1) as the source of the largest sulfate spike of the Common timated the climate response compared with proxy data. Here Era in both Greenland and Antarctica ice cores (2, 3). Analy- we perform Earth system model simulations of the impacts of ses of erupted products and their melt inclusions suggests that the Mount Samalas eruption using a range of SO and halogen ± 2 the eruption released 158 12 megatons (Tg) of sulfur dioxide emission scenarios. Reported halogen emissions are consid- ± (SO2), together with 227 18 Tg of chlorine (Cl) and up to 1.3 Tg erable from the eruption, but using our model simulations of bromine (Br) (4), making it responsible for the emissions of and reconstructed climate response we can rule out all but the greatest quantity of volcanic gases into the stratosphere in minor halogen emissions reaching the stratosphere. Includ- the Common Era (4–6). ing a minor fraction of the halogen inventory reaching the Tree-ring proxy records and historical narratives point toward stratosphere captures the observed “muted” climate response a strong surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere following but results in significant ozone depletion with implications for the eruption, in the summer of 1258 (1, 7, 8). Contemporary ultraviolet exposure and human health. narrative sources suggest an unusually cloudy, rainy, and cold summer in Europe in 1258 (1, 7). The climatic impact of the Author contributions: D.C.W., C.M.V., and A.T.A. designed research; D.C.W., L.M., A.S., eruption is suspected to have amplified famines and political tur- and A.T.A. performed research; N.L.A., S.D., P.T.G., J.K., and G.M. contributed new moil in Europe and Japan, with the most severe socioeconomic reagents/analytic tools; D.C.W. and C.M.V. analyzed data; and D.C.W., C.M.V., A.S., and consequences reported in England (7, 9, 10). A.T.A. wrote the paper.y Given the magnitude of the eruption and the scale of the The authors declare no competing interest.y societal impacts a number of previous climate modeling studies This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.y have investigated the climate response to the 1257 Mt. Samalas Published under the PNAS license.y eruption. However, when compared with observations or proxy 1 To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected] records (11–13), most previous simulations overestimate the sur- This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/ face cooling response to Mt. Samalas and other large eruptions doi:10.1073/pnas.1919807117/-/DCSupplemental.y (14). Despite the 1257 eruption of Mt. Samalas emitting 1.8 times www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1919807117 PNAS Latest Articles j 1 of 9 Downloaded by guest on September 25, 2021 the stratosphere (17, 21). As the size of the SO2 injected into the Table 1. Summary of experiments performed to reconcile the stratosphere increases, the ability of the OH to react with SO2 climate and ozone response to the Mt. Samalas eruption decreases, slowing down the rate of aerosol production, causing Stratospheric injection sulfate to be produced over a longer time period, and leading to a longer-lived forcing. In addition, the reduction in OH can cause Ensemble Nsims SO2, Tg HCl, Tg HBr, Tg levels of ozone to increase in the lower stratosphere (21) where HI-HAL (20%) 6 142:2 46:68 0.263 it can act as a climate-warming agent. LO-HAL (1%) 6 94:8 2:33 0.013 One aspect that affects our understanding of the effects of the BOTH-SO2 HI-SO2 (90%) 6 142:2 0:00 0.000 Mt. Samalas eruption, and potentially other future eruptions, BOTH-SO LO-SO (60%) 6 94:8 0:00 0.000 is in the role of coemitted halogens. The impacts of volcanic 2 2 halogens on stratospheric ozone were first discussed by Sto- Nsims refers to the number of ensemble members performed for each set larski and Cicerone (22). When halogens enter the stratosphere of simulations. In all simulations the same day of year and altitude is used they contribute to the catalytic destruction of ozone (23) and to inject the volatile gases from the eruption of Mt. Samalas. BOTH-SO2 lead to commensurate impacts on the composition and chem- refers to the SO2 only experiments, which are averaged in further analysis. istry of the troposphere. Tie and Brasseur (24) showed that there Percentages indicate the fraction of emissions compared to those estimated in ref. 4. is significant sensitivity in the response of stratospheric ozone following eruptions the size of 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption to the background chlorine levels. Kutterolf et al. (25) provided renewed interest in the topic of volcanic halogens and several The results from our HadGEM3-ES simulations are com- studies have recently been published using a range of models pared against results from the CESM-Last Millennium Ensem- and model setups (26–31) that have also identified important ble (CESM-LME) (34) and multimodel ensembles from the sensitivities to greenhouse gas loading and levels of short-lived Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase V/Paleoclimate bromine compounds (e.g., ref. 31). Vidal et al. (4) identified Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP5/PMIP3) extremely large releases of halogens from the Mt. Samalas erup- Past1000 experiment (hereafter CMIP5) (35) and evaluated tion, which could have significantly affected the stratospheric against a range of tree-ring records and other evidence described ozone burden.
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