IC MARKET ESPRESSO InterCapital Research 27 March 2017
Croatia I Slovenia I Romania I Bulgaria I Serbia Quote of the Day:
IC Daily Highlights „We can't all be bakers or chefs. Many of us have modest ambitions. But we can all buy a piece of the pie.” Theme of the Day: EBITDA Margins of the Croatian, Slovenian and Romanian Companies Amah Lambert Bond, Money and Currency Markets: S&P Keeps Croatian Rating Unchanged @ BB with a Stable Outlook Croatian Equity Market: 150 Regional indices TTM CRO Index SBITOP Index BELEX15 Index Overview of Vipnet and Tele2's 2016 Results BET Index SOFIX Index 140 Regional Equity Market: Romgaz and Transelectrica Published Dividend Proposals 130 Global Equity Market: 120 U.S. Equities Closed Mixed on Friday
Technical Perspective - Region: 110 PODRRA ZA - Upward channel breached Technical Perspective - Global: 100
SX5E - Upward trend Source: Bloomberg 90 24-Mar-16 24-Jun-16 24-Sep-16 24-Dec-16 24-Mar-17
IC Daily Newsflash Upcoming Announcements
•[CROATIA] EUR 0.39m worth of Adris Group shares traded via block Date Announcement •[ROMANIA] Fondul Proprietatea sets payment date for the special distribution of RON 0.05 per share on 27 March 31-Mar-17 ATGR - FY 2016 results •[ROMANIA] Romgaz convenes the GA on April 25, proposed DPS of RON 2.49 (yielding at 8.7%) 31-Mar-17 LKPG - 2016 Annual Report •[ROMANIA] Transelectrica convenes the GA on April 27, proposed DPS of RON 1.88 (yielding at 31-Mar-17 Unior - FY 2016 (prelim.)
5.87%) 6-Apr-17 ZVTG - FY 2016 results • [SERBIA] Aerodrom Nikola Tesla's 2016 sales up by 4.4% YoY, net profit down by 10.3% to RSD 3.0bn 6-Apr-17 Sava Re - FY 2016 results (audited)
10-Apr-17 Petrol - General Meeting
12-Apr-17 CICG - FY 2016 results
12-Apr-17 CICG - 2016 Annual Report
13-Apr-17 PBZ - ex-dividend date
Top Regional Investment Stories
InterCapital Contacts Company Investment Thesis
One of the largest hospitality groups Đivo Pulitika Danijel Delač Kristina Pukšec VALAMAR Favourable accommodation positioning Analyst Board Member in charge of Brokerage Head of Fixed Income and Money Market RIVIERA Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 867 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 894 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854 Strong growth potential E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Stable cash flow PETROL High level of debt Margareta Maresić Irena Ivanković Ivan Dražetić GROUP Strong retail player Junior Analyst Head of Institutional Desk Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 857 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 891 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 852 Strategic shift E-mail: [email protected] ADRIS E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Strong cash position GROUP Growth potential in insurance
Marcel Dimač Filip Majić Marin Onorato Managed by Franklin Templeton FONDUL Junior Analyst Broker Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Significant discount to NAV Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 858 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 896 Phone: + 385 (0)1 4343 180 PROPR. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Possible privatizations of portfolio companies
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 1 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Theme of the Day
EBITDA Margins of the Croatian, Slovenian and Romanian Companies
Sales (right in EURm) and EBITDA margin (left in %)
409.2 Transgaz 48.68 By looking at the markets, Romanian 748.9 46.01 Romgaz market experiences the highest EBITDA 24.1 Uljanik Plovidba 40.00 361.7 Nuclearelectrica 38.41 margin which can be attributed to a large 939.5 HT 38.12 weight of energy and utility companies 200.9 Luka Koper 37.72 who’s operations are marked whit high 196.1 Valamar Riviera 35.18 margins but on the flipside with high 132.6 Maistra 33.49 capex needs. 3,566.3 OMV Petrom 30.36 58.8 Arenaturist 28.77 701.7 Telekom Slovenije 28.40 7.0 BVB 24.48 534.9 Adris grupa 23.37 60.9 Optima Telekom 23.30 1,174.4 Krka 19.43 312.6 Ledo 17.12 124.3 AD Plastik 14.42 169.8 Cinakrna Celje 13.72
49.0 Vupik 11.22 EBITDA margin Median = 12.5% 154.6 Dalekovod 10.88 41.0 Atlantska plovidba 10.46 564.2 Podravka 10.43 214.5 Ericsson Nikola Tesla 10.20 135.6 Intereuropa 9.84 207.9 Belje 9.38 688.3 Atlantic Grupa 9.29 136.0 Kras 8.86 384.6 Koncar 7.75 89.3 Viadukt 7.30 1,258.1 Gorenje 6.93 3,856.7 Petrol 3.76 74.7 Duro Dakovic 2.98 249.8 Petrokemija 1.83 3.1 Zagreb Stock Exchange 6.41 24.3 Luka Ploce 8.42 9.6 Ingra 19.62
We have analyzed 2016 results for the components of the main equity indices, excluding banks and insurance companies. Note that Slovanian Unior, Romanian Transelectrica and Electrica did not deliver their full-year statements yet so the results of companies are not shown on the graph. We used a relative indicator - EBITDA margin. However, we have to emphasize that, in some of the observed cases, the results were influenced by one- offs. Our analysis resulted in a median EBITDA margin of 12.5%, with most of the companies recording positive values (33 out of 36). The highest margin was recorded by the Romanian gas transmission system operator Trasngaz (48.68%). The company also showed very good performance in 2016 and the highest increase in sales among other Romanian blue-chip companies. Transgay’s net profit went up by 22% YoY and stood at EUR 132m at the end of the year. On the back of this strong result, last week we saw that the management propose to pay a hefty dividend - RON 46.33 per share, thus giving about 12.79% dividend yield compared to the average share price a day before the proposal. Energy companies surly show impressive profitability as the second place is held by Romgaz whose EBITDA margin stood at 46.01%. Third from the top is Uljanik Plovidba (40%), but we have to emphasize that D&A costs individual make the largest part (41%) of total operating costs and on the EBIT level the company shows loss of almost EUR 1m. Only laggards are Croatian Ingra (-19.62%), Luka Ploce (-8.42%) and Zagreb Stock Exchange (-6.41%).
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Bond, money and currency markets
S&P Keeps Croatian Rating Unchanged @ BB with a Stable Outlook Macroeconomic indicators
INDICATOR CRO SLO SRB ROM BUL Standard&Poor’s Global Ratings decided to keep Croatian credit rating unchanged at BB with a stable outlook. As of March 10th which marks the date when Moody’s decided to lift the outlook GDP (YoY, %) 3,4 2,6 2,5 4,7 3,5 on Croatian debt from negative to stable, all three of the major agencies have espoused a stable ten-year yield (%) 2,7 3,2 6,5 1,8 1,4 outlook. CPI headline (YoY, %) 1,4 2,2 3,2 0,2 1,7 PPI (YoY, %) 3,0 1,9 4,5 2,6 1,9 Let’s go over the macroeconomic blueprint sketched on S&P’s dashboard – after a 2.9% YOY GDP ind. Production (YoY, %) 4,0 3,3 2,8 5,5 -1,2 growth in 2016, the credit rating agency now expects an insignificant acceleration to 3.0% YOY in retail (YoY, %) 4,7 15,4 4,1 6,2 4,0 2017. The two major growth engines are – you guessed – export sector and household unemployment (YoY, %) 15,3 7,5 16,9 4,8 8,2 consumption. Export renaissance is likely to go on in the short term, becoming more and more diversified (S&P underlines export growth in pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding), while household budget balance (% GDP) -1,3 -2,7 -4,6 -0,8 -1,7 consumption will be receiving a boost from reduced income tax and a sharp decline in public debt (% GDP) 88,3 86,2 78,5 39,3 26,7 unemployment. Nevertheless, S&P does remind the investors that mid-term GDP growth might decelerate to some 2.5% due to demographical aging and weak business environment (stating Interest rates that a large government sector plays a key role in the latter). DUR. Zibor Euribor Belibor Robor The agency also applauds the public deficit reduction to an estimated 1.3% GDP in 2016 (from (HRK) (EUR) (RSD) (RON) 3.3% GDP in 2015), stating that in the mid term this figure would probably stay below the 2.0% O/N 0,38% n.a. 2,99% 0,41% GDP target. This is quite a big deal – the differential between GDP growth and public deficit would then reduce the public debt from the current value of some 84.1% GDP to some 79.0% GDP 1M 0,53% -0,37% 3,35% 0,60% by 2020. The risks to this scenario not being played out lie primarily in the FX structure of the 3M 0,63% -0,33% 3,53% 0,84% government liabilities, making Croatia vulnerable to external shocks, but then again this seems to 6M 0,73% -0,24% 3,72% 1,10% be a familiar tune among other SEE countries. 9M 0,79% -0,17% n.a. 1,20% 1Y 0,88% -0,11% n.a. 1,26% Strong EU fund flows and export picture are also a precondition for CA to continue posting positive figures in both short and mid term. So far, so good for Croatia – but for a rating being revised upwards, we’ll probably have to wait a bit more. Eurobonds
7.0 380 bond curr. coupon price mid ytm CROATIA 2024 USD, Yield and Spread 360 6.5 CROATIA
340 CROATI 18 EUR 5,875% 107,75 -0,16% 6.0 320 CROATI 22 EUR 3,875% 109,46 1,94% 5.5 CROATI 25 EUR 3,000% 102,38 2,66% 300 CROATI 17 USD 5,500% 100,50 0,00% 5.0 280 CROATI 19 USD 6,750% 109,39 2,97% 260 CROATI 20 USD 5,625% 110,17 3,34% 4.5 CROATI 21 USD 6,375% 110,48 3,54% 240 4.0 CROATI 23 USD 5,500% 108,21 3,95% 220 CROATI 24 USD 6,000% 111,29 4,09% 3.5 200 SLOVENIA 3.0 180 SLOVEN 18 EUR 4,000% 104,35 -0,40% Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 CROATIA 2024 USD Spread (bps) CROATIA 2024 USD Yield (%) SLOVEN 18 USD 4,750% 103,35 1,71% SLOVEN 22 USD 5,500% 111,85 3,16% Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital SLOVEN 23 USD 5,850% 114,44 3,23% SLOVEN 24 USD 5,250% 111,75 3,33%
SERBIA
SERBIA 17 USD 5,250% 102,17 1,86% SERBIA 18 USD 5,825% 105,33 2,61% Bloomberg: INKA5
local sovereign, currency clause BULGARIA 17 EUR 4,250% 101,45 -0,85% RHMF-O-19BA 29/11/2019 5,375% 110,25 111,05 1,45% 1,16% 2,48 2,48 109,70 BULGARIA 22 EUR 2,000% 105,93 0,78% RHMF-O-203E 05/03/2020 6,500% 114,30 115,20 1,50% 1,22% 2,71 2,71 115,22 BULGARIA 24 EUR 2,950% 110,12 1,50% RHMF-O-227E 22/07/2022 6,500% 121,00 122,30 2,28% 2,05% 4,57 4,58 170,69 BULGARIA 27 EUR 2,625% 104,94 2,07% RHMF-O-247E 10/07/2024 5,750% 119,20 120,50 2,82% 2,64% 6,03 6,04 202,96 BULGARIA 35 EUR 3,125% 100,79 3,07% local sovereign, HRK ROMANIA RHMF-O-17BA 25/11/2017 6,250% 103,75 103,95 0,55% 0,26% 0,64 0,64
RHMF-O-187A 10/07/2018 5,250% 105,80 106,20 0,71% 0,42% 1,25 1,25 ROMANIA18 EUR 6,500% 108,13 -0,13% RHMF-O-203A 05/03/2020 6,750% 115,00 115,70 1,51% 1,29% 2,70 2,71 ROMANIA19 EUR 4,875% 112,30 0,16% RHMF-O-217A 08/07/2021 2,750% 102,90 103,70 2,04% 1,85% 4,01 4,01 ROMANIA20 EUR 4,625% 115,10 0,26% RHMF-O-222A 07/02/2022 2,250% 100,80 101,80 2,08% 1,86% 4,58 4,58 ROMANIA22 USD 6,750% 115,94 3,18% RHMF-O-257A 09/07/2025 4,500% 113,50 115,00 2,67% 2,48% 6,95 6,96 ROMANIA24 USD 4,875% 108,56 3,45% RHMF-O-26CA 14/12/2026 4,250% 111,70 113,20 2,86% 2,70% 7,97 7,98 RHMF-O-282A 07/02/2028 2,875% 99,00 100,70 2,98% 2,80% 9,23 9,25
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Croatian Equity Market
Overview of Vipnet and Tele2's 2016 Results 170 CRO Index Volume: EUR 3.38m CRO10 Index Today we decided to take a look at how Vipnet and Tele2, the two biggest competitors of HT 160 CROPLUS Index on the mobile market, performed in 2016. The 2nd largest mobile operator in Croatia (with 150 mobile market share of 36%), Telekom Austria’s Vipnet, has generated operating revenues totalling EUR 398.3m, an increase of 8.6% compared to 2015. Driven by the top line revenues, 140
EBITDA grew by 12.3% to EUR 88.3m. EBITDA margin stood at 22.2% (21.4% in 2015). Note 130 that results are not fully comparable as they are influenced by the acquisition of the fixed-line reseller Amis which was consolidated as of Sep 2015. However, proforma results (as if the 120
Amis’s results were consolidated since the beginning of 2015) are also showing solid 110 improvement – revenues grew by 7%, while EBITDA increased by a solid 10.9%. Ultimately, due to significantly higher income taxes (which was not explained in more detail) the bottom line 100 came out lower at EUR 4.3m or -12.5% YoY. Vipnet's number of wireless (mobile) subscribers Source: Bloomberg 90 were flattish (in total 1.7m), but the number of fixed lines went up 10.9% to 285k. The amount 24-Mar-16 24-Jun-16 24-Sep-16 24-Dec-16 of Telekom Austria’s CAPEX in the Croatian market surged 5.4% to about EUR 76.3m, mostly driven by investments in mobile and fixed networks. 115 SBITOP Index Volume: EUR 0.42m The Swedish multinational telecom group Tele2 recorded an increase in net sales of 5% reaching EUR 160.6m for Croatian market in 2016. Despite the revenue growth, the company 110 posted 28% lower EBITDA (EUR 10.7m). Tele2 also continued with its investments in the 4G
network which ultimately resulted in EUR 13.7m CAPEX, which is less than a half of the 105 investments seen in 2015. Finally, number of customers stood at 801k at end-Dec with net intake of 16k new customers (785k in 2015). 100
Regional Equity Market 95
Source: Bloomberg Romgaz and Transelectrica Published Dividend Proposals 90 24-Mar-16 24-Jun-16 24-Sep-16 24-Dec-16 Definite focus on the last day of the week was on Romania, as another two BET components 140 published invitations to the GA as well as dividend proposals for 2016. Here we bring you a Volume: EUR 0.09m BELEX15 Index brief overview: BELEXLIN Index 130 [Romania – Romgaz – SNG RO] Romgaz proposes dividend of RON 2.69 per share, thus giving about 8.7% dividend yield compared to the average share price a day before the proposal was 120 made public. The company decided on total dividend distribution in the amount of RON 960m
or 94% of the non-cons net profit in 2016. Romgaz’ AGM will take place on 25 April, and the 110 payment date is set on 26 July. [Romania – Transelectrica – TEL RO] Transelectrica proposes to distribute a gross dividend 100 of RON 1.881 per share for 2016, which implies 5.9% dividend yield compared to the average share price a day before the invitation was made public. The total value of dividends to be 90 allocated to the shareholders is RON 138m. Transelectrica’s AGM will take place on 27 April, Source: Bloomberg and the ex-dividend date is set at 6 June. The proposed payment date is on 28 June. 80 24-Mar-16 24-Jun-16 24-Sep-16 24-Dec-16
120 Index fundamentals Volume: EUR 10.21m BET Index 115 BET-BK Index Last EV / Net debt
Day YTD 1Y Price EV/S P/E EBITDA / EBITDA ROE (%) Div. Yld 110
CROBEX* -0,8% 3,5% 24,3% 2.065 1,09 18,10 8,63 2,03 6,2% 3,1% 105 SBITOP 0,1% 10,6% 10,3% 794 0,53 11,89 6,52 1,93 8,0% 4,6% 100 BELEX15 -0,7% 3,2% 21,4% 740 0,86 30,03 5,98 0,61 2,5% 4,1% 95 BET -0,1% 12,4% 18,1% 7.962 1,10 11,23 3,63 -0,70 8,1% 5,9%
SOFIX -0,1% 9,0% 43,9% 639 1,03 11,76 8,77 1,51 5,7% 1,6% 90
Source: Bloomberg 85 14-Jan-16 14-Apr-16 14-Jul-16 14-Oct-16 Daily market snapshot 150 SOFIX Index 145 Volume: EUR 0.26m Volume (EURm) Winners Laggards BGBX40 Index 140 Banca Transilvania 2,33 Holding Varna 6,13% Intereuropa -6,80% 135
Transgaz 1,76 AD Plastik 3,11% Dalekovod -5,47% 130 125 Fondul Proprietatea 1,25 Industrial Holding Bulgaria 2,50% Ingra -5,39% 120 Adris Grupa (p) 0,69 Telekom Slovenije 2,34% Unior -5,03% 115 OMV Petrom 0,47 Jedinstvo 2,20% Neochim -4,23% 110 Valamar Riviera 0,45 Transgaz 1,66% Arenaturist -3,60% 105 BRD 0,45 Zagrebacka banka 1,55% Gorenje -3,40% 100 Romgaz 0,27 Luka Ploce 1,24% Koncar - elektroindustrija -3,24% 95 Source: Bloomberg Advance Terrafund REIT 0,26 KD Group 1,19% Podravka -3,05% 90 24-Mar-16 24-Jun-16 24-Sep-16 24-Dec-16
* ATPLRA ZA and ADRSPA ZA are excluded from CROBEX multiples and ratios due to large one-off event / Market snapshot includes only main index components
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Global Equity Market
U.S. Equities Closed Mixed on Friday Change (%) Index U.S. equities closed mixed Friday after a choppy trading session with NBC News day 1 Y YTD reporting the House pulled a key health-care bill. The vote, which was originally North/South America scheduled for Thursday before a delay, was pulled from the floor shortly ahead of the close. House Speaker Paul Ryan is scheduled to hold a news conference at 4 p.m. ET. DOW JONES -0,02% 17,93% 4,52% S&P 500 -0,11% 15,23% 4,79%
The Dow Jones industrial average, which had traded more than 100 points lower earlier NASDAQ -0,07% 21,87% 8,07%
in the session, closed about 60 points lower. The 30-stock index had also traded positive S&P/TSX 0,55% 15,54% 0,96%
Friday. BOLSA 0,39% 6,64% 6,65% The S&P 500 closed about 0.1% lower, with materials lagging. The health care sector BOVESPA 0,01% 27,94% 5,49% turned positive following the news. MERVAL 0,20% 57,65% 16,48% IPSA 0,80% 21,68% 13,88% The Nasdaq composite outperformed, rising 0.2% after briefly dipping into negative territory. The major indexes posted weekly loss. Asia/Pacific S&P/ASX 200 0,80% 13,17% 1,55%
NIKKEI 225 0,93% 14,03% 0,78%
HANG SENG -0,06% 19,50% 10,51%
SHCOPM 0,64% 10,42% 5,34%
KOSPI -0,17% 9,21% 7,03%
TWSE -0,28% 13,26% 7,02%
SET 0,15% 11,78% 1,82%
BSE SENSEX 30 0,44% 16,27% 10,65% Africa/Near East/Russia
FTSE/JSE 0,16% -3,09% 2,31%
XU 100 0,17% 10,52% 15,07%
Hermes 0,93% 71,82% 7,49%
Tel Aviv 100 0,15% -0,91% -1,27%
MICEX 10 -0,08% 5,91% -10,16%
RTS -0,09% 32,58% -2,52% Western Europe
DJ EURO STOXX 50 0,92% 15,58% 4,91%
FTSE 100 0,22% 20,21% 2,77%
CAC 40 0,76% 16,24% 3,51%
DAX 1,14% 22,21% 4,87%
IBEX 35 0,93% 17,46% 10,40%
S&P/MIB 30 1,07% 11,02% 4,85%
SMI 0,71% 10,97% 4,97%
ATX 0,85% 27,08% 7,81%
S&P 500 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 0,2% 6,1% -0,5% 4,7% 8,6% 11,6% INDUSTRIALS -0,1% 3,4% -1,6% 2,1% 11,3% 15,9% CONSUMER STAPLES -0,3% 6,0% -0,6% 5,3% 2,9% 5,2% INFO TECH -0,3% 10,9% 0,9% 9,3% 12,7% 23,8% ENERGY -0,4% -8,9% -2,2% -10,0% 1,6% 9,4% MATERIALS 0,4% 4,9% -0,5% 3,6% 10,1% 16,7% FINANCIALS 0,2% 1,3% -3,3% -0,1% 21,7% 30,1% TELECOM SERVICES -0,1% -4,4% -2,2% -4,9% -2,4% -1,1% HEALTHCARE -0,4% 7,8% -0,5% 6,8% 1,5% 10,2% UTILITIES -0,2% 6,3% 0,7% 6,1% 1,4% 5,6%
STOXX EUROPE 600 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y AUTOMOBILES & PARTS 0,9% 3,1% 1,0% 2,1% 14,8% 13,6% INSURANCE 1,2% 6,4% 1,0% 6,5% 9,7% 11,2% BANKS 1,3% 7,4% 4,8% 8,1% 10,3% 20,8% MEDIA 1,2% -1,1% -0,9% -0,3% 0,4% -4,8% BASIC RESOURCES 0,6% -0,4% -1,8% 0,7% -5,0% -3,3% OIL & GAS 0,7% -4,5% -0,1% -3,7% 10,7% 18,1% CHEMICALS 1,2% 4,2% 2,7% 4,4% 11,3% 15,4% REAL ESTATE 0,7% 2,7% 2,5% 2,8% 15,6% 12,3% CONST. & MATERIALS 0,8% 4,4% 4,8% 3,6% 25,6% 21,4% RETAIL 0,8% 3,1% 3,2% 3,9% -0,0% -0,0% CONSUMER GOODS 1,8% 3,0% 1,3% 3,2% 7,0% 2,5% TECHNOLOGY -0,6% 6,3% -2,3% 9,2% 28,6% 61,2% FINANCIAL SERVICES 0,2% 5,2% 1,3% 6,0% -0,9% 3,9% TELECOM SERVICES 1,1% 3,7% 2,7% 3,9% 1,4% -6,0% FOOD & BEVERAGE 0,7% 10,1% 2,4% 10,4% 10,3% 22,3% TRAVEL & LEASURE 1,3% 6,0% 2,7% 6,3% 10,2% 18,7% HEALTH CARE 0,9% 5,1% -0,0% 5,9% 1,3% 8,6% UTILITIES 1,7% -1,6% 1,1% -0,6% 0,6% -1,5% IND. GOODS & SERVICES 0,5% 10,7% 2,6% 11,7% 10,3% 15,4%
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Technical Perspective - Region
PODRRA ZA - Upward channel breached (daily chart)
Today we are looking @ daily PODRRA graph. After it breached support that was provided by lower channel brink + high from 23/09/2016 @ 393 and SMAVG100, it Trading Suggestion: continues to move down and breached also support that was provided by SMAVG200 and high from 2015 @ 367. Next support provides high from 16/10/2015 @ 356. RSI is in oversold. We would be buyers around 356
Technical Targets: 372,93… SMAVG200 367,00… high 27/10/2015 360,00… last 356,00… high 16/10/2015 339,00… high 06/10/2015
Technical Perspective - Global
SX5E - Upward trend (daily chart)
Today we are looking @ daily SX5E graph. It continues to move upwards. First resistance provides high from 31/11/2015 @ 3524. First support provides green upward trend Trading Suggestion: line. Additional support provides SMAVG50. RSI is in upward trend and is above 50 points.
We would be sellers in case green upward trend line gets breached
Technical Targets: 3524… high 30/11/2015 3415… close 3329… SMAVG50 3300… high 27/08/2015
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Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Industrial
Koncar 2016-12 262,8 758,00 -3,2% 9,9% 18,4% 11,22 0,80 10,67 0,46 5,96 -2,86 4,6% 7,1% 12,00 1,6%
Ericsson NT 2016-12 252,1 1.404,46 0,6% 20,7% 36,7% 16,89 6,52 10,00 1,00 9,80 -1,72 13,7% 38,6% 90,00 6,4% Petrokemija 2016-12 26,5 15,28 0,0% -14,6% 34,7% -2,24 4,32 -1,21 0,42 23,05 17,26 -7,2% -193,2% 0,00 0,0%
Duro Dakovic 2016-12 41,4 40,47 -1,6% -10,3% 18,2% -15,19 3,37 -2,52 1,13 37,88 19,26 -2,9% n/a 0,00 0,0% AD Plastik 2016-12 90,2 159,32 3,1% 14,9% 57,4% 13,90 0,96 6,77 1,08 7,48 2,45 3,6% 6,9% 12,00 7,5%
Gorenje 2016-12 169,9 6,96 -3,4% 16,0% 58,1% 20,15 0,45 2,62 0,41 5,86 3,92 0,7% 2,3% 0,00 0,0% Cinkarna 2016-09 145,0 178,00 -1,7% 9,9% 115,8% 14,32 0,99 15,15 0,72 4,81 -1,00 5,5% 6,9% 4,20 2,4%
Metalac 2016-06 29,0 1.760,00 1,1% 4,4% 39,6% 8,28 0,80 7,37 0,50 5,17 0,36 5,8% 9,6% 155,00 8,8% Jedinstvo 2016-06 10,3 4.190,00 2,2% 2,2% 1,0% 4,04 0,25 -1,34 0,07 0,72 -1,56 3,2% 6,3% 211,76 5,1%
Alfa Plam 2016-06 49,3 35.001,00 0,0% 0,0% 7,0% 9,24 0,92 6,74 0,77 5,96 -2,22 7,9% 10,0% 1.000,00 2,9% Messer Teh. 2016-06 116,2 13.900,00 0,0% 6,9% 68,5% 3,62 0,87 7,55 1,13 2,82 -1,85 22,4% 24,0% 1.801,00 13,0% Gosa Montaza 2016-06 4,8 2.300,00 -4,1% -4,2% 44,7% 4,85 0,58 -27,62 -0,05 -0,53 -4,26 7,1% 11,9% 142,00 6,2%
Neochim 2016-12 92,3 68,00 -4,2% 14,1% 46,2% 7,09 1,75 3,07 0,63 3,54 -0,59 14,5% 24,6% 0,80 1,2% Monbat 2016-12 228,3 11,45 -0,4% 18,5% 58,8% 16,27 2,28 -46,59 2,08 11,61 2,15 8,1% 14,0% 0,28 2,4%
MS Hydraulic 2015-12 157,7 7,90 -1,3% 18,9% 58,1% 36,10 4,87 18,04 3,39 17,49 -0,83 11,7% 13,5% 0,22 2,8%
Utility
Electrica 2016-09 1.075,2 14,16 0,4% 7,6% 14,2% 9,41 0,75 5,52 0,42 2,34 -2,58 6,3% 8,0% 0,74 5,2% Transgaz 2016-12 951,0 368,00 1,7% 25,2% 36,3% 7,27 1,13 7,94 1,81 3,73 -1,05 11,1% 15,5% 46,33 12,6% Transelectrica 2016-09 522,9 32,50 0,0% 11,3% 11,7% 9,35 0,74 3,54 1,08 4,25 0,72 4,9% 7,9% 2,65 8,2% Janaf 2016-12 855,8 6.301,25 0,0% 18,9% 32,7% 21,81 1,69 13,75 7,92 10,52 -1,36 7,2% 7,8% 132,15 2,1%
Energy
INA 2016-12 3.694,8 2.741,36 2,6% -5,4% 8,6% 288,56 2,59 12,06 1,92 14,13 1,15 0,5% 0,9% 0,00 0,0%
NIS 2016-09 979,8 745,00 0,1% 0,7% 24,0% 10,70 0,63 3,67 1,20 6,35 2,87 3,1% 5,9% 24,69 3,3% OMV Petrom 2016-12 3.754,6 0,30 0,0% 15,7% 24,8% 16,49 0,64 3,84 1,04 3,42 -0,05 2,5% 3,9% 0,02 5,0% Romgaz 2016-09 2.432,1 28,75 0,0% 15,0% 5,9% 11,88 1,18 6,89 2,45 4,84 -1,37 9,1% 10,0% 2,70 9,4%
Nuclearelectrica 2016-09 413,0 6,24 -1,1% 29,9% 17,7% 23,30 0,25 3,10 1,09 2,90 -0,14 0,9% 1,1% 0,33 5,3%
Pharma
Krka 2016-12 1.728,2 52,70 0,2% -0,4% -13,7% 15,93 1,20 8,07 1,43 7,36 -0,21 5,7% 7,5% 2,65 5,0%
Galenika Fito. 2016-06 57,9 2.720,00 0,0% 0,0% 11,4% 7,53 1,05 17,61 1,37 5,04 -1,71 12,4% 14,0% 80,00 2,9%
Sopharma 2016-12 262,6 3,81 0,3% 27,9% 41,6% 10,13 1,06 -6,35 0,78 9,93 2,58 5,9% 10,5% 0,07 1,8%
Construction
Ingra 2016-12 7,7 4,21 -5,4% 37,6% 52,5% 84,35 0,61 -2,82 9,18 -46,78 -42,69 0,1% 0,7% 0,00 0,0% Tehnika 2016-12 18,3 716,26 2,7% 55,6% 232,9% 143,81 0,42 -11,27 1,00 16,58 11,61 0,1% 0,3% 0,00 0,0% IGH 2016-12 24,8 300,09 -2,6% 66,4% 327,1% -3,25 -6,76 -9,84 3,60 -17,29 -12,06 -9,7% 207,8% 0,00 0,0% Viadukt 2016-12 18,4 298,81 -0,2% -2,7% -8,9% 194,88 0,39 -6,51 0,44 5,96 3,14 0,1% 0,2% 0,00 0,0% Hidroelektra 2016-12 4,0 48,00 0,0% 25,3% 123,4% -0,64 -0,24 -1,57 0,82 -2,95 -2,07 -16,2% n/a 0,00 0,0% Dalekovod 2016-12 75,4 22,64 -5,5% 66,7% 115,2% 10,40 2,62 51,49 0,79 7,29 2,81 4,1% 25,2% 0,00 0,0% Energoprojekt 2016-06 124,3 1.410,00 -2,9% -1,5% 41,0% 14,84 0,79 15,69 0,43 5,95 -0,51 2,4% 5,3% 20,00 1,4%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 7 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Tourism
Liburnia Riviera 2016-12 146,8 3.598,00 0,0% -2,0% -1,5% 84,48N/A 1,44 11,64 4,30 9,70 0,65 1,4% 1,7% 0,00 0,0% Valamar Riviera 2016-12 727,3 42,82 -1,6% 23,8% 73,9% 15,76 2,27 9,24 4,67 13,28 2,74 7,7% 14,4% 0,80 1,9% HUP Zagreb 2016-12 158,4 2.720,00 0,0% -2,8% 47,0% 14,72 1,44 8,64 3,90 9,32 0,79 6,8% 9,8% 15,00 0,6% Maistra 2016-12 455,2 308,62 2,1% 22,0% 40,3% 23,49 2,34 11,18 4,42 13,21 2,95 5,4% 10,0% 0,00 0,0% Turisthotel 2016-12 165,4 3.346,34 0,0% 13,4% 29,5% 17,93 3,38 11,12 5,14 11,18 -1,51 15,1% 18,8% 105,00 3,1% Plava Laguna 2016-12 469,0 6.370,00 -0,5% 15,8% 49,9% 16,32 1,78 8,60 3,80 9,42 0,68 7,4% 10,9% 0,00 0,0% Arenaturist 2016-12 212,4 481,42 -3,6% 2,7% 46,4% -13,79 1,96 13,34 4,82 16,76 4,19 -6,9% -14,2% 0,00 0,0% Albena 2016-12 135,1 61,82 -0,6% 0,6% 26,2% 34,61 0,56 10,80 2,89 12,67 2,46 1,3% 1,6% 0,45 0,7%
Shipping
Atlantska Plov. 2016-12 68,0 361,54 0,8% 28,0% 227,3% -7,41 0,84 71,83 5,35 51,11 35,26 -3,7% -11,3% 0,00 0,0% Jadroplov 2016-12 9,3 42,30 6,1% 3,8% 224,6% -0,71 0,20 -2,06 9,13 -18,13 -15,71 -11,4% -28,2% 0,00 0,0% Uljanik Plovidba 2016-12 12,9 165,52 0,7% 3,5% 48,5% -1,75 2,62 -20,68 7,07 17,68 16,34 -4,0% -149,8% 0,00 0,0% TNG 2016-12 89,0 75,59 -2,0% 0,8% 0,8% 16,26 0,99 8,34 5,27 11,11 5,95 2,7% 6,1% 3,95 5,2%
Telecommunications
HT 2016-12 1.923,1 174,24 -0,8% 3,1% 21,2% 15,38 1,18 6,87 1,54 4,03 -1,34 6,4% 7,7% 6,00 3,4% Telekom Slo. 2016-12 571,9 87,50 2,3% 23,1% 10,8% 14,32 0,81 2,67 1,34 4,70 1,83 2,9% 5,7% 5,00 5,7%
Infrastructure
Luka Ploce 2016-12 31,4 550,00 1,2% -3,7% -8,5% -11,76 0,57 -13,79 0,32 -3,76 11,58 -4,3% -4,8% 0,00 0,0% Luka Rijeka 2016-12 84,1 46,29 -1,2% -3,4% 8,3% 109,67 0,90 -88,44 3,35 54,50 -15,65 0,7% 0,8% 0,00 0,0% Luka Koper 2016-12 452,2 32,30 0,9% 29,2% 38,3% 10,19 1,36 6,60 2,77 7,34 1,38 9,0% 13,4% 1,13 3,5% Aerodrom N.T. 2016-09 363,7 1.315,00 -2,9% 13,8% 35,1% 12,64 1,66 13,01 5,43 9,37 -1,00 12,2% 13,1% 60,25 4,6%
Food
Viro 2016-12 82,4 440,71 -2,2% 15,1% 81,2% 10,62 1,27 3,95 0,87 7,43 2,97 3,9% 12,0% 0,00 0,0%
Jamnica 2016-12 366,4 122.875,00 -1,7% -11,7% 15,9% 8,90 1,42 6,36 0,63 4,64 -2,33 10,0% 15,9% 2.197,00 1,8% Cakovecki Mlin. 2016-12 88,4 6.250,00 -1,6% -3,3% 27,5% 9,68 1,07 8,00 0,53 6,60 -0,51 7,5% 11,1% 60,00 1,0% Kras 2016-12 96,0 518,52 -0,9% -3,9% -3,1% 27,77 1,12 11,58 0,87 9,79 1,81 2,1% 4,0% 0,00 0,0% Ledo 2016-12 299,3 7.073,52 -2,4% -33,7% -25,8% 7,73 1,18 6,15 0,62 3,64 -1,95 10,9% 15,3% 425,01 6,0% Belje 2016-12 124,2 20,15 -0,3% -13,7% -1,1% -27,13 0,47 -2,83 1,34 14,27 7,90 -1,0% -1,7% 0,00 0,0% Atlantic Grupa 2016-12 396,7 882,71 -1,8% -0,2% 9,7% 18,03 1,46 11,12 0,88 9,48 3,27 3,0% 8,1% 13,50 1,5% Sojaprotein 2016-06 72,1 600,00 0,0% -2,9% -31,9% 21,96 0,75 105,18 0,86 10,97 4,28 1,6% 3,4% 0,00 0,0%
Retail
Tisak 2016-12 48,6 151,00 0,0% -2,6% -4,7% -7,82 1,60 8,11 0,03 2,89 -8,44 -4,3% -20,5% 0,00 0,0% Medika 2016-12 81,9 20.134,17 0,0% 17,2% 54,9% 10,95 1,34 -4,92 0,34 11,72 3,84 2,6% 12,2% 0,00 0,0% Mercator 2016-09 386,8 63,50 0,0% -6,6% -22,6% -150,85 0,60 7,62 0,50 11,91 8,27 -0,1% -0,4% 0,00 0,0% Petrol 2016-12 730,2 350,00 0,8% 7,7% 26,6% 10,05 1,23 6,24 0,29 7,64 2,61 4,8% 12,2% 12,35 3,5%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 8 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Company Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap EV / Net debt availab. FS ( EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/S EBITDA / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Diversified
Adris Grupa 2016-12 1.189,3 474,80 -2,7% 4,1% 24,8% 17,07 0,87 -39,35 0,99 n/a n/a 2,7% 5,1% 15,00 3,2% Podravka 2016-12 337,6 351,84 -3,0% -7,2% 8,4% 13,34 0,86 5,25 0,87 8,32 2,58 3,6% 6,4% 7,00 2,0% Industrial Capital 2016-12 36,6 4,60 1,1% 5,2% 44,3% 4,70 0,56 3,66 0,36 2,40 -0,14 10,4% 12,0% 0,00 0,0% Industrial Hold. 2016-09 34,1 0,86 2,5% -15,5% 4,9% -5,80 0,23 4,07 1,89 17,47 10,77 -2,6% -4,0% 0,00 0,0% Stara Planina 2016-12 81,3 7,58 0,9% 16,7% 85,9% 9,09 0,95 6,31 0,65 3,98 -1,25 9,0% 10,5% 0,21 2,7% Holding Varna 2016-12 88,1 32,90 6,1% -0,3% 37,6% -493,58 0,95 12,69 6,74 41,54 20,75 -0,1% -0,2% 0,00 0,0% Chimimport 2016-12 189,5 1,55 -0,5% -7,4% 31,1% 5,65 0,23 0,99 N/A N/A N/A 0,8% 4,2% 0,00 0,0% Eurohold 2016-12 58,9 0,91 -2,8% 38,6% 35,1% 16,78 0,99 40,47 0,28 47,74 28,23 0,6% 5,9% 0,00 0,3%
Stock Exchange
BVB 2016-12 51,5 30,60 -1,9% 5,5% 14,2% 29,83 2,17 349,87 5,35 21,87 -8,18 4,5% 7,3% 0,92 3,0%
Change Fundamental indicators
Last Disc. to Disc. to Disc. to availab. FS M. Cap Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV NAVPS NAV (curr) NAV (1Y) NAV (3Y) ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Funds / REIT's
Fondul Propriet. 2016-12 1.936,9 0,88 0,1% 16,5% 28,0% 20,15 0,78 1,22 -28,3% -23,6% -25,4% 3,9% 3,9% 0,05 5,7%
Bulgarian REIT 2016-12 22,8 2,22 -0,3% -2,2% 33,5% 32,08 0,65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,8% 2,0% 0,00 0,0%
Adv. Terra. REIT 2016-09 91,6 2,11 -0,6% 0,7% 1,4% 23,08 0,80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3,3% 3,5% 0,10 4,8%
Change Fundamental indicators
Last M. Cap Loans vs. NII / NF&CI / availab. FS (EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV Leverage Deposits assets assets ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Banks
ZABA 2016-12 2.763,7 64,03 1,6% 18,6% 60,6% 12,15 1,10 6,86 86,8% 2,7% 1,0% 1,3% 9,0% 5,30 8,3% PBZ 2016-12 2.133,8 830,00 0,8% 7,9% 48,0% 9,98 1,09 5,65 86,5% 3,2% 1,5% 1,9% 10,9% 25,33 3,1% AIK Banka 2016-06 147,5 1.850,00 0,0% 5,7% 1,1% 3,89 0,33 3,21 78,1% 4,0% 0,5% 2,6% 8,5% 0,00 0,0% Komercijalna B. 2016-06 241,4 1.790,00 0,6% 3,0% 27,5% -2,87 0,50 7,18 56,5% 3,3% 1,2% -2,4% -17,3% 63,00 3,5% Banca Transil. 2016-12 2.152,7 2,69 -1,5% 12,8% 21,4% 7,65 1,60 8,46 71,1% 3,4% 1,0% 2,5% 20,9% 0,06 2,2% BRD 2016-12 1.860,0 12,16 0,5% 2,4% 17,6% 11,10 1,27 7,77 69,8% 3,1% 1,5% 1,5% 11,4% 0,73 6,0% CCB 2016-12 88,6 1,53 0,8% 0,1% 53,4% 6,74 0,44 13,07 55,1% 2,3% 0,9% 0,5% 6,5% 0,00 0,0% FIB 2016-12 279,5 4,97 0,5% 48,4% 168,2% 5,71 0,64 10,66 64,4% 3,5% 1,0% 1,1% 11,2% 0,00 0,0%
Last M. Cap Combined Net availab. FS (EURm) Last price Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/GWP Leverage Ratio margin ROA(%) ROE(%) Dividend Div. Yld
Insurance
Sava Re 2016-09 280,6 16,30 0,0% 23,3% 15,2% 8,5 0,9 0,6 5,7 91,5% 6,1% 2,0% 11,1% 0,80 4,9%
Triglav 2016-09 619,5 27,25 -0,9% 17,5% 2,6% 10,1 0,8 0,7 4,9 94,3% 5,5% 1,7% 8,4% 2,50 9,2%
CO 2016-12 347,5 6.000,59 -6,2% 8,1% 13,2% 14,4 1,0 0,9 4,0 97,0% 5,4% 1,7% 6,9% 0,00 0,0%
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 9 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital Research Coverage Universe
Overview of Investment Recommendations
Last Recommend- Company Target price Last price Difference Investment Thesis Analyst research ation
- weak revenue growth potential Hrvatski 29 January - dividend player BUY 160,95 174,24 -7,6% - profitability above peer Đivo Pulitika Telekom 2016 - low level of debt group's average
- divesting as a profitability Podravka 31 July UNDER - large share of foreign sales 351,84 -100,0% growth opportunity Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 REVIEW - substantial cost-cutting potential - moderate level of debt
Common Common 583 3,7% - strong cash position - further restructuring and economic 20 December HOLD 604,00 Adris Group - large investments in tourism portfolio recovery expected to propel the insurance Đivo Pulitika 2016 Preferred Preferred 474,80 7,8% expected to increase RevPAR and returns business BUY 512,00
- growing presence in Eastern - high return on equity Ericsson 11 May SELL 1017,10 1.404,46 -27,6% European markets - largest dividend yield Đivo Pulitika Nikola Tesla 2015 - dependence on telco investments on Croatian market
- majority stake owned by Končar 03 August - foreign markets as an opportunity BUY 786,87 758,00 3,8% the government Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 - high dependence on government deals - profit margin presssure
- strong presence in the region - best in the class standards of corporate Atlantic 11 July BUY 954,34 882,71 8,1% - diversified product portfolio and vertically governance Đivo Pulitika Grupa 2016 integrated business mode - continuing profitability improvements
- strong fundamentals 7 January UNDER - exposure to new markets (Russia) Krka Group 52,70 -100,0% - continuing sales growth Đivo Pulitika 2015 REVIEW - dual listing in Warsaw despite crisis effects
23 February STRONG - stable cash flow - ownership restructuring Petrol Group 350,06 350,00 0,0% Đivo Pulitika 2016 BUY - high level of debt - strong retail player
- stable dividend payment - consolidation of suppliers in the AD Plastik 14 July UNDER 159,32 -100,0% - Edison projekt and recovery in Europe automotive industry Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 REVIEW - presence in Russia - exposure to cyclic automotive sector
Group - stable structure of debt 1 October - restructuring of operations in progress Telekom BUY 89,32 87,50 2,1% - risk of permanent competitive Đivo Pulitika 2015 - risk of a large number of litigations Slovenije pressure on prices
- leading regional insurer - attractive dividend yield Triglav 3 May HOLD 28,58 27,25 4,9% - potential for further expansion - Standard & Poor’s "A-" rating Đivo Pulitika Group 2016 in Ex-Yu countries with stable outlook
- lack of transparency - attractive valuation in relation to peers NIS 9 September - macroeconomic pressures SELL 538,68 745,00 -27,7% - high domestic market share Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 - dependence on oil prices - potential for development outside Serbia and refining margins
- one of the largest hospitality groups - potential expansion of the Valamar 21 September UNDER 42,82 -100,0% - multi-destination portfolio in key Adriatic accommodation portfolio via M&A Đivo Pulitika Riviera 2015 REVIEW regions, Istria and Dubrovnik - dependence on tourism development
- quality brand/product portfolio - lack of economies of scale Gorenje 17 November STRONG 4,90 6,96 -29,5% - strong position on Ex-Yu markets - dependence on input prices as well as Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 BUY - strategic alliance with Panasonic currency translation differences
- possible asset play Tankerska - dislocation of refineries 24 August - stable earnings due to time charters Next HOLD 65,00 75,59 -14,0% - experienced fleet manager Đivo Pulitika 2016 - complete exposure to a single market - attractive cost structure compared to peers Generation segment
- attractive valuation compared to peer port - historically inconsistent strategy related to 13 October operators often changes in management Luka Koper BUY 25,66 32,30 -20,6% Đivo Pulitika 2015 - recovery of regional economies and their - future capacities rely on strong CAPEX and trade with the rest of the world Slovenia's investments in railway
-successful integration of Zavarovalnica -possible interest rate hikes Sava Re 30 November STRONG Maribor 17,22 16,30 5,7% -absence of major loss events pushes up Đivo Pulitika Group 2015 BUY -growth opportunities in the regional results for now insurance markets
-managed by Franklin Templeton, a top class -about 60% of the fund's NAV is made by Fondul 23 March STRONG fund management company unlisted companies 0,99 0,88 13,0% Đivo Pulitika Proprietatea 2016 BUY -high exposure to energy sector -possible privatizations of portfolio -significant discount to NAV companies
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 10 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital Group
About us
InterCapital is an independent investment company established in 2001, and is one of the leading companies for trading of financial instruments, asset management and investment banking services in the Republic of Croatia.
Our mission is to further advance the ongoing development of our domestic capital markets through the introduction and implementation of innovative financial products, know-how and sophisticated international standards in financial mediation services. In doing so, we aim to provide superior returns to our diverse customer base. Experience, knowledge, dedication, reputation and ethical conduct are at the heart of our business. These characteristics are uncompromisingly embedded in each of our employees, ultimately guaranteeing professional quality and dedication in our approach to clients, our product portfolio and overall mission achievement. The InterCapital Group is headquartered in Zagreb and employs more than 40 individuals.
Our services: BROKERAGE SERVICES (tel: + 385 1 48 25 896, mail: [email protected]) We specialize in offering of full service brokerage services to foreign and domestic institutional clients & HNWI with expert knowledge in trading with financial instruments who desire to trade in significant volumes. Becoming our client enables you to trade securities listed on domestic stock exchanges, as well as securities and financial derivatives traded in global markets. Our online trading platform, IC.trader, enables fast and direct access to domestic and international markets and offers real time monitoring and trading with financial instruments on both the Zagreb Stock Exchange and the majority of stock exchanges worldwide.
FIXED INCOME DEALING (tel: + 385 1 48 25 854, mail: [email protected])
InterCapital Securities is the top fixed income trader according to bond trading volume on Zagreb Stock Exchange fourteen years in a row. Services offered by the company include market making on Croatian government bonds, as well as trading Croatian, Serbian, Slovenian, Romanian and Bulgarian fixed income instruments. Our specialties also encompass research services covering MM and FI markets (both domestic and international), providing expert opinions and developing trading ideas in close cooperation with our clients.
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INVESTMENT BANKING (tel: + 385 1 48 25 866, mail: [email protected]) Investment Banking helps companies improve their competitiveness by defining and implementing optimal financial strategies, which is a prerequisite for survival in today’s dynamic business environment. As a highly specialized segment of the financial services industry, investment banking requires expertise of local financial markets, knowledge of specific needs facing companies and capabilities in structuring and executing optimal solution(s) with the end goal of creating new value for the client. Our investment banking activities are divided into two streams: financing through the capital markets (debt issues (commercial papers & bonds) and equity issues (public and private equity offerings), as well as official market listings financial advisory services (mergers and acquisitions, financial analysis and company valuations, due diligence services, business restructurings and spin-offs, MBO and ESOP programs)
INSURANCE BROKERAGE (tel: + 385 1 54 96 166, mail: [email protected]) InterCapital Risk is specialized in obtaining advanced insurance and reinsurance solutions not only on domestic insurance market but also on established markets like Lloyd’s of London, Bermuda etc. Managing operational risks and insurance brokerage is our core business, while courtesy, innovation and professionalism are the drivers of our business philosophy. Although InterCapital Risk is a new insurance brokerage and risk management operation on the market, its employees are proven specialists in this business with considerable success records.
CUSTODY SERVICE (tel: + 385 1 48 25 844/845, mail: [email protected])
With the continued monitoring of our clients’ needs and investing in the development of new and increasing the quality of existing services, we have developed a securities custody service. InterCapital offering its clients trading on the domestic, as well as on foreign stock exchanges, enables to simultaneously perform following services: payment and settlement of securities in the world’s leading markets; storage and safekeeping of securities in various global depository; managing investment positions with maximum professionalism and discretion; continuous reporting to clients; collection of inflows generated from interests, dividends and other income relating to assets in the custody account and monitoring of other corporate actions. These services can be achieved with the minimal additional time and administration, as well as maximum flexibility and support of our professional employees. Software support is achieved through the incorporation of custodial services through IC.trader trading platform.
iCAPITAL (tel: + 385 1 48 25 897, mail: [email protected])
iCapital.hr has been designed and implemented as an investment and educational portal, providing information needed when making investment decisions, all available in one place. On iCapital.hr you can track market trends of domestic and foreign stocks, using technical and fundamental analysis, monitor daily changes in the top 10 shareholders of the Zagreb Stock Exchange, vote in Sentiment surveys, monitor the performance of own portfolios, read daily market reviews and comments, participate in discussions through the Forum, compare Croatian investment funds, as well as play and inform yourself. Visit us on www.icapital.hr - the leading Croatian Community of traders and investors.
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 11 InterCapital.hr IC.trader IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Disclaimer
Notice to Investors and Explanation of Investment Recommendations
„IC Market Espresso“ is a Recommendation that proposes investment strategy in terms of one or more financial instruments or the Issuer of financial instruments, including opinions about current or future value and price of these instruments. Market Espresso is published every workday. The first issue was published on 2 January 2008, while the technical analysis of Croatian equities and index was introduced on 1 September 2008. Information in this report is intended for informative purposes only and does not represent the solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or participate in any particular trading strategy.
Market Espresso is based on publicly available information (Stock Exchanges, Bloomberg, financial reports of Issuers, companies' management, business and other websites). Although we believe our information and price quotes to be reasonably reliable, we do no guarantee their accuracy or completeness. In addition, the price or value of financial instruments described in this report may fluctuate and realize gains or losses. InterCapital Securities Ltd. does not assume responsibility for any damage caused by the use of published information and projections contained in this report Opinions in this report constitute the current judgement of the author/s as of date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommendations in IC Market Espresso are based on fundamental analysis and instruments and rules of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a valuation method of financial instruments made by analysing statistically generated market activities such as historical prices and trading volumes. Technical analysis usually uses various types of graphical displays, on the basis of which special techniques try to predict future trends. The main task of technical analysis is to attempt to identify historical price movements and accordingly identify possible future trends.
Fundamental analysis is a financial analysis of industries and companies based on factors such as sales, assets, profit, products or services, markets and management. In conducting fundamental analysis, InterCapital Securities Ltd. uses various methods to determine a value of the Issuer. Among the rest, analysis of comparable companies, discounted cash flow and other methods are being used. Although InterCapital Securities Ltd. uses models generally accepted in the financial industry and theory, the results of these models depend on plans and information obtained from the Issuer as well as subjective opinions of analysts.
The authors of technical and fundamental analyses in IC Market Espresso are Đivo Pulitika, Margareta Maresić and Marcel Dimač. They are employees of InterCapital Securities Ltd. registered in Zagreb, Masarykova 1. InterCapital Securities Ltd. is supervised by Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (HANFA).
Fundamental rating values of an Issuer are given according to the following scale:
•Strong buy - equities with expected absolute revenue of more than 20% in the monitored time period •Buy - equities with expected absolute return of 10%-20% in the monitored time period •Hold - equities with expected absolute return of -10% to 10% in the monitored time period •Sell - equities with expected absolute return below -10% in the monitored time period •Under review - an issuer might be placed Under Review due to new information which is not included in the analysis.
Up to August 14, 2014 the Hold recommendation was used for equities with an expected return of 0% to 10%, while the Sell recommendation was used for equities with an expected negative absolute return. Criteria for other recommendation remained unchanged.
4Q 2016 (1 October - 31 December 2016) Companies which InterCapital Securities Number Share Ltd. provided investment banking service within last 12 months Strong Buy 4 21.1% - Buy 6 31.6% ATGR-R-A Hold 3 15.8% - Sell 2 10.5% - Under Review 4 21.1% ADPL-R-A
InterCapital Securities Ltd. is in possession of the following equities:
Analysts engaged in creation of IC Market Espresso and/or related persons are not in possession of significant financial interests in one or more financial instruments which are subject to recommendation or significant conflicts of interest in relation to any of the issuers in accordance with Article 475 of the Capital Market Act.
The company InterCapital Securities Ltd. acts as a market maker for ADPLRA ZA, PODRRA ZA, HTRA ZA, KOEIRA ZA, TPNGRA ZA, ATGRRA ZA and RIVPRA ZA.
Issuer recommendations stated in IC Daily - Market Espresso are not declared to the Issuer before they are published. In the last 12 months period InterCapital Securities Ltd. served as a listing agent for the TPNGRA ZA shares on the Official market of the Zagreb Stock Exchange. Inc.
Any investments indicated in the report constitute risk, are not readily available in all jurisdictions, can be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Value or income realized on any one investment mentioned in the report may vary. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Investors must make their own informed investment decisions without depending on this Recommendation. Only investors with sufficient knowledge and expertise in financial dealings who are able to evaluate risk and return may consider investing in any form of securities or markets indicated herein.
Protection of copyright and data base contained in this Recommendation is of great importance. The report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without prior consent given by InterCapital Securities Ltd. Please cite source when quoting. All rights are reserved.