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A Dynamic Analysis of Tourism Determinants in Sicily

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A Dynamic Analysis of Tourism Determinants in Sicily View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives A Dynamic Analysis of Tourism Determinants in Sicily Davide Provenzano Master Programme in System Dynamics Department of Geography University of Bergen Spring 2009 Acknowledgments I am grateful to the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT); the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO); the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D 2009), the Statistical Office of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Craft Trade and Agriculture (CCIAA) of Palermo; the Italian Automobile Club (A.C.I), the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Territory and Sea (Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare), the Institute for the Environmental Research and Conservation (ISPRA), the Regional Agency for the Environment Conservation (ARPA), the Region of Sicily and in particular to the Department of the Environment and Territory (Assessorato Territorio ed Ambiente – Dipartimento Territorio ed Ambiente - servizio 6), the Department of Arts and Education (Assessorato Beni Culturali, Ambientali e P.I. – Dipartimento Beni Culturali, Ambientali ed E.P.), the Department of Communication and Transportation (Assessorato del Turismo, delle Comunicazioni e dei Trasporti – Dipartimento dei Trasporti e delle Comunicazioni), the Department of Tourism, Sport and Culture (Assessorato del Turismo, delle Comunicazioni e dei Trasporti – Dipartimento Turismo, Sport e Spettacolo), for the high-quality statistical information service they provide through their web pages or upon request. I would like to thank my friends, Antonella (Nelly) Puglia in EUROSTAT and Antonino Genovesi in Assessorato Turismo ed Ambiente – Dipartimento Territorio ed Ambiente – servizio 6, for their direct contribution in my activity of data collecting. Thanks to Dott. Antonino Ballone in CCIAA for the same reason. Many thanks to Prof. Carmine Bianchi for having introduced me to System Dynamics and to Prof Francesco Andria for his support and the great opportunity he has given to me to continue my research activity. I am grateful to Prof. Pål Davidsen for having taught me System Dynamics and for his constant support and encouragement. I am grateful to my friend and colleague Valerio Lacagnina because most of the ideas and insights implemented in this work are the result of the research activity we carry out together. Many thanks to my friend Matteo Pedercini for his support and help even from abroad. Finally, there are four women I owe very deep thanks to. My true mentor, Prof. Maria Caliri, who gave me the opportunity to start my academic career and allowed me to spend one year in Bergen where I studied System Dynamics. My extraordinary grandmother, Francesca, who has always supported me with her love and prayers. My great mother, Caterina, for her strength, her courage, her advice and unique and personal way to be a mother. My sweet girlfriend Giulia for the special meaning she has given to my life. Without this unique poker of Queens this thesis would not exist. To them this thesis is dedicated. to Maria, Francesca, Caterina, and Giulia. INDEX ABSTRACT ........................................................................................... 7 Chapter 1. Sicily and its Tourism Supply ............................................ 8 1.1 History ................................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Geography ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 Cultural resources ................................................................................................................ 10 1.4 Natural endowments ............................................................................................................ 11 1.5 Tourism infrastructures in Sicily ......................................................................................... 12 1.6 The most of tourism opportunities in Sicily ........................................................................ 12 1.7 The competitors ................................................................................................................... 13 1.8 Trends and the “11 September” effect for tourism in Sicily ............................................... 13 1.9 Tourism market position of Sicily and more recent developments ..................................... 16 1.10 The reputation of Sicily ..................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2. The Methodological Approach and the Case Study ...... 18 2.1 The gravity model ............................................................................................................... 18 2.1.1 A gravity formulation for human interactions .............................................................. 20 2.1.2 The gravity approach in tourism related studies .......................................................... 21 2.2 The system dynamics approach ........................................................................................... 21 2.3 The case study ..................................................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 International demand functions for tourism in Sicily ................................................... 23 2.3.2 National demand function for tourism in Sicily ........................................................... 28 2.3.3 Local demand function for tourism in Sicily ............................................................... 29 2.3.4 Parameters’ estimation ................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 3. The Dynamic Model ......................................................... 35 3.1 The hotel sector ................................................................................................................... 35 3.2 The restaurant sector ........................................................................................................... 37 3.3 The culture sector ................................................................................................................ 39 3.4 The nature sector ................................................................................................................. 42 3.5 The urban environment sector ............................................................................................. 42 3.6 The road sector .................................................................................................................... 45 3.7 The reputation sector ........................................................................................................... 48 Chapter 4. Model Validation .............................................................. 53 4.1 Philosophical and technical problems in model validation ................................................. 53 4.2 Structure validity ................................................................................................................. 54 4.2.1 The structure confirmation test .................................................................................... 54 4.2.2 Parameter confirmation test ......................................................................................... 55 4.2.3 Direct extreme-condition tests ..................................................................................... 57 4.2.4 Dimensional consistency test ....................................................................................... 57 4.2.5 Structure oriented behavior tests .................................................................................. 57 4.3 Behavior validity ................................................................................................................. 58 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................. 65 5 Chapter 5. Simulations Result ............................................................ 67 5.1 Simulation result in the hotel sector .................................................................................... 67 5.2 Simulation result in the restaurant sector ............................................................................ 68 5.3 Simulation result in the culture sector ................................................................................. 69 5.4 Simulation result in the nature sector .................................................................................. 69 5.5 Simulation result in the urban environment sector .............................................................. 70 5.6 Simulation result in the road sector ..................................................................................... 72 5.7 Simulation result in the reputation sector ............................................................................ 73 5.8 French tourists ..................................................................................................................... 75 5.9 German tourists ................................................................................................................... 76 5.10 Norwegian tourists ...........................................................................................................
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