POLITICS: U.K. POLITICS Chronicle of a failure foretold Coverage of and other political protagonists on BBC and ITV TV news 01/2001 - 10/2003 he Conservative Party´s decision to oust Iain Duncan Smith as party News coverage supported negative image Tleader could not have come as a Rating of Duncan Smith in TV news and polls 10/01 - 09/03 surprise given the media image of party 10% leader and party during the past two years. Positive Like his predecessor , Iain Duncan Smith failed to capitalise from the 0% negative image of ’s government in the media. -10%

While TV news reports on Tony Blair -20% have continuously deteriorated since the final quarter of 2002, Iain Duncan Smith´s media image recovered only slightly and -30% turned more unfavourable just before the Media image Satisfaction ratings Negative party conference in October. His image in -40% opinion polls, such as MORI’s satisfaction 2001/IV 2002/I 2002/II 2002/III 2002/IV 2003/I 2003/II 2003/III ratings, worsened correspondingly to his Balance of positive and negative statements in % Source: MEDIA TENOR; POLL: MORI Basis: 1,084 passages on or by Iain Duncan image in the media. The main factor in the 10/01/2001 - 09/30/2003 Smith in four British news programmes negative presentation of the Tory party lead- er in the TV evening news programmes of BBC and ITV was the increasingly focused Raising the leadership question coverage on his personality and leadership. Share of IDS‘s personality and leadership coverage on BBC/ITV Since late 2002 the share of reports on 30% Duncan Smith’s personal abilities oscillated between nine and sixteen per cent, culmi- 25% nating in the coverage of the Tory party conference in October, when one quarter of 20% all reports on Duncan Smith discussed his leadership skills and personality. Despite 15% the much covered questions regarding Tony Blair’s honesty and integrity in connection 10% with the row over weapons of mass destruc- tion and the Hutton inquiry, only less than 5% five per cent of all news reports mentioning share of passages in % the Prime Minister discussed his personal 0% characteristics and leadership. 02/I 02/II 02/III 02/IV 03/I 03/II 03/III Oct. 03

The way Iain Duncan Smith was presented Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 1,084 passages on or by Iain Duncan in the media did not only raise questions 01/01/2001 - 10/10/2003 Smith in four British news programmes about the strength of his leadership, it also shifted the attention away from a debate over political issues. While only 50 per cent Lack of leadership and ideas of all statements by or about Iain Duncan News coverage of IDS during the party conference on BBC/ITV Smith were concerned with political issues Social policies Negative such as foreign affairs, immigration, Europe Public appearance or taxation, the share was much higher for Taxes his political counterparts Charles Kennedy Domestic security (61 per cent) and Tony Blair (82 per cent). The low share of news on political issues Health Business in connection with Iain Duncan Smith pre- Political programme, strategy sented him not only as a weak leader but Suitability, ability to govern also his party as lacking in ideas. Leadership qualities Duncan Smith lasted two years, one month War/conflicts and 16 days as Tory party leader. During this period IDS did not receive a positive Political parties: internal affairs media presentation in TV news, in terms of Domestic policy Positive a higher number of positive than negative -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 20% Balance of positive and negative statements in % mentions, in any quarter since 2001. Only Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 271 statements on or by Iain Duncan 09/01 - 10/10/2003 Smith in four British news programmes

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in two months did he generate more posi- Failing to capitalise tive than negative news reports. He shared Evaluation of political parties in BBC and ITV news 6/00 - 09/03 this poor media image with his predecessor 60% William Hague. Neither party leader gener- Positive ated positive news for themselves or their 40% parties, despite similar image problems for Tony Blair and his government at the time. 20% In their respective last nine months as party leaders, William Hague and Iain Duncan 0 Smith received an overall negative image whilst Tony Blair underwent an image crisis -20% as well. It was this failure to capitalise from a weakened position of the government in -40% the media that generated the pressure to Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Negative dismiss Duncan Smith. -60% 00/III 00/IV 01/I 01/II 01/III 01/IV 02/I 02/II 02/III 02/IV 03/I 03/II 03/III Unsuccessful Tory conference Balance of positive and negative statements in % The number of TV news reports on party Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 17,715 passages on or by political pro- 07/01/2000 - 09/30/2003 tagonists in four British news programmes politics shows that the party conferences are the main events of the year for political par- ties to generate media coverage. At no other No conference boost for Conservatives time during the year will the Conservative TV: evaluation of parties during the conferences 09 - 10/2003 Party or the Liberal Democrats receive as much media attention and actually exceed Conservatives the volume of coverage of the government Labour or the Prime Minister. In 2003, the share of opposition parties in the TV news bulletins Lib Dems on BBC and ITV sunk to a low. Less than 10 per cent of the party political coverage Negative No clear rating Positive focused on the opposition. Party confer- ences represent therefore a major opportu- IDS nity to raise awareness in the public about party political programmes and set the Blair media agenda. Kennedy The Conservative party did not realise this aim as it became apparent that TV news 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% programmes set their own media agenda

Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 2,080 statements on or by political prot- with regard to party conferences. During 09/01 - 10/10/2003 agonists in four British news programmes the party conferences TV news featured much less information on political issues than on party-internal affairs and personal- Blair‘s image problem is getting worse ity topics. In general, the share of political Evaluation of party leaders in BBC and ITV news 10/01 - 09/03 issues being discussed in the news dropped 20% for all parties to 40 per cent down from 89 Positive Duncan Smith Blair Kennedy 15% per cent before the party conferences. As a result a party lacking unity would be facing 10% much closer scrutiny of its internal affairs than usual. The announcement during the 5% conference that 25 letters from Tory MPs 0 calling for the dismissal of Iain Duncan Smith were to be collected was therefore -5% timely and did not miss the effect of -10% generating a substantial amount of media pressure on the Tory party leader and the -15% Negative party members. At a time when the „quiet -20% man“ of British politics aimed to turn up 2001/IV 2002/I 2002/II 2002/III 2002/IV 2003/I 2003/II 2003/III the volume and revive the Conservative bid Balance of positive and negative statements in % Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 7,534 passages on or by political party for a term in government, the TV news of 10/01/2001 - 09/30/2003 leaders in four British TV news programmes

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BBC and ITV concentrated on his leadership skills and the question of his suitability as Conferences: political issues not in demand Prime Minister. Coverage of the Conserva- Share of political issues in the BBC/ITV news 01-10/2003 tive Party during the party‘s conference was 100% 2003 before the conferences therefore less favourable than media reports During the conferences on Labour or the Liberal Democrats during their party gatherings. 80%

TV news determine Blair‘s successor 60% While the statements about political par-

ties and politicians had a stronger positive 40% or negative bias in ITV news, BBC and ITV generally assessed the political protagonists in the same way as far as a surplus of posi- 20% tive or negative statements is concerned. The only notable exception was the Labour 0% Party, which was presented with a majority Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats of favourable mentions on ITV, but a rather share of statements in % Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 2,939 passages on or by political critical image in the sum of all statements 01/01 - 10/10/2003 parties in four TV news programmes on BBC. The reason for this difference in the presentation of the Labour Party is based on ITV’s focus on “old Labour” which received ITV presents positive Labour Party image a rather positive presentation. Evaluation of political protagonists during the party conferences It also highlights a potential leadership ques- Conservative Party Negative tion in the Labour Party. Tony Blair‘s dete- BBC riorating image in the third quarter of 2003 Labour Party ITV and reports of health troubles have caused Liberal Democrats speculation about the Prime Minister’s abil- ity and willingness to run for a third term. Labour Government His possible successor has already been found by the TV news. ‘s Iain Duncan Smith speech received a high degree of media Tony Blair attention, notably his frequent use of the term “Labour” as opposed to Tony Blair‘s Charles Kennedy “new Labour”. The image of the Chancellor Gordon Brown on BBC and ITV is on a high, exceeding even Positive that of Charles Kennedy, a feat that Tony -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Balance of positive and negative statements in % Blair has achieved in only one quarter dur- Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 3,084 statements on or by politicans, parties ing the past two years. Based on his record 01/01/2001 - 10/10/2003 and the government in four TV news programmes as Chancellor and due to the healthy state of the economy Gordon Brown did not receive a single negative mention during Hague and IDS: sharing the same destiny September and October. Coverage of the last 9 months of Tory leaders on BBC/ITV

Struggle for positive news October 2000 - June 2001 In spite of the positive image on ITV the William Hague economy was the only positive political issue associated with the Labour party in Tony Blair TV news. The party‘s leadership and public appearance was not as much in question as January 2003 - September 2003 that of the Conservative party but a lack of positive policy issues in the media is Iain Duncan Smith apparent. TV news featured a majority of negative statements on the party‘s politics Tony Blair concerning foreign affairs, education, taxes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% and domestic policies. If the recently found unity of the Conserva- Negative No clear rating Positive

tive party is going to last under the leader- Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 5,898 passages on or by party 10/01/2000 - 09/30/2003 leaders in four British news programmes

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ship of , the weakness of Conservative strengths: taxes and security the Labour government in the media could Conservatives during the party conference on BBC/ITV be exploited by the communication of cred- ible policies through the media. Taxes Negative Domestic security During the party conference the Tories Social policies already established a positive media image Health with regard to taxes, domestic security, Immigration social policies and health. Irrespective of EU Public appearance the ongoing image crisis of the government, Leadership qualities the years under Hague and Duncan Smith Suitability, ability to govern have shown that only if the Conserva- Economic policies tives can be perceived in TV news with a Business long-lasting favourable assessment of their Political programme, strategy War/conflicts policies and leadership, will they be able to Political parties: internal affairs increase their chances at the polls. Domestic policy Positive One party that has achieved a favour- -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% able presentation in the news before and Balance of positive and negative statements in % during their party conference were the Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 387 statements on or by the Conserva- 09/01 - 10/10/2003 tive party in four British news programmes Liberal Democrats. Far away from lead- ership discussions and with from a recent by-election success as well Labour fails to convince with issues as favourable polls, the Liberal Democrats Labour coverage at the conference on BBC/ITV managed more than other parties to talk Political parties: internal affairs Negative about political issues. More than 50 per cent Economic policies of the coverage was dedicated to political Leadership qualities issues, whereas reports from the Labour Public appearance conference contained only 22 per cent of War/conflicts Health information on political issues (Conserva- EU tives 42 per cent). Still, of all issues debated Business in Brighton only domestic policy and taxes Foreign affairs found their way into the news. Domestic security This indicates the party’s general problem: a Political programme, strategy Domestic policy lack of media coverage. Unlike the Labour Education and Conservative Party’s struggle for posi- Suitability, ability to govern tive coverage, the Liberal Democrats will Positive Taxes need to establish their positive media image -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% on a wider-ranging and higher volume of Balance of positive and negative statements in % Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 405 statements on or by the Labour coverage. The small amount of coverage 09/01 - 10/10/2003 party in four British news programmes dedicated to the Liberal Democrats is an indicator of the significance with which they are regarded by the national broadcast- Small but successful ing media. As the agenda setting research Liberal Democrats in TV news during the party‘s conference has proven over the years, the topics and

Negative organisations that are salient in the media Domestic policy are also regarded as important by the public and the issues and protagonists cut from the media agenda are less significant in the

Public appearance public mind. mk Basis Media: BBC SIX O‘CLOCK NEWS, BBC TEN O‘CLOCK Taxes NEWS, ITV EARLY EVENING NEWS, ITV NEWS AT TEN Period: 01.07.2000 - 10.10.2003 Analysis: All statements on or by politican Political programme, strategy parties, party leaders and the government in Positive British TV news. POLLS: Mori, share of positive - share of negative -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 20% 40% 60% 80% Balance of positive and negative statements in % responses to the question of satisfaction with Source: MEDIA TENOR Basis: 166 statements on or by the Liberal party leaders aggregated per quarter 09/01 - 10/10/2003 Democrats in four British news programmes

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