HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Tropical Storm Ernesto Information from NHC Advisory 28A, 7:00 AM CDT Wednesday August 8, 2012 Ernesto made along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, August 7 at 10 PM CDT near Mahahual as a category 1 hurricane. Ernesto has since weakened, but is forecast to re-intensify possibly to hurricane strength over the Bay of and make a second landfall on Mexico on Thursday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 60 mph Position Relative to 90 miles SSE of Campeche, MX Speed: (trop storm) Land: Late Thursday near Est. Time & Region: , MX Min Central Pressure: 990 mb Coordinates: 18.8 N, 89.8 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 160 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 260 degrees at 15 mph 75 mph (cat 1 hurricane) Winds (39+ mph): Speed: Forecast Summary  Within 36 hours, there is a 50% chance Ernesto will remain at tropical storm strength (39-73 mph winds), a 34% chance Ernesto will re- strengthen to a hurricane (74+ mph winds), and a 16% chance Ernesto will weaken to tropical depression strength or dissipate (winds below 39 mph).  The windfield map – based on the GFDL 00:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 1 strength (74-95 mph winds). The GFDL – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Tropical Storm Ernesto by Kinetic Analysis Corp.  Tropical storm conditions are will continue to spread across the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by Thursday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by Thursday morning. Ernesto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4-8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over Belize, Northern Guatemala, the Mexican states of and Veracruz, the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides over higher terrain. A of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels is also likely today along Mexico’s Gulf Coast. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Windfield and Rain for Tropical Storm Ernesto (National Hurricane Center) (Based on GFDL at 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

TD below 1 in ! !3 Saltillo TS 1 - 3 in ÏD TD Ï Cat3 Monterrey Monterrey Cat 1 3 - 6 in ! !4 Cat 2 6 - 9 in ÏS TS Ï Cat4 Cat 3 9 - 12 in !1 !5 Cat 4 12 - 24 in Ï Cat1 Ï Cat5 TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer Cat 5 NHC FcstTrack !2 GFDL FcstTrack Ï Cat2

San Luis Potosi Tampico s

Queretaro Merida lajaralajara Morelia Mexico City 08-09 Toluca Veracruz 08-08 Cuernavaca 08-10 Puebla Villahermosa

Acapulco Belmopan Tuxtla Gutierrez 0250 500 1,000 Miles San Pedro Sula

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Peninsula, south of Belize City southward to the border of Guatemala, Celestun southward and westward to Coatzacoalcos along the Gulf coast of Mexico, and north of Barra de Nautla to Tuxpan Mexico.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2012 Atlantic Season to Date 2012 Activity versus Average Activity since 1950 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2012 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2012 2012 year to date (1/1/12 – 8/08/12) 6 2 0 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2012 2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 8/08/11) 5 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Florence

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Ernesto 4 TS Debby 2012 CSU season forecasts 13 5 2 (Colorado State University at June 1) TS Chris TS Beryl HU Ernesto 2012 NOAA season forecasts HU Chris 9-15 4-8 1-3 TS Alberto (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at May 24) 0

Tropical Storm Activity to Date May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Ernesto is the fifth named storm and second hurricane of the 2012 2012 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity

Atlantic Hurricane Season. Five named storms had occurred by this The graph above shows 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and

date last year, but none were hurricanes. The date of last year’s first average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It

hurricane, Irene, is August 22. The next tropical storm of 2012 will be shows, for example, that the third tropical storm of the season,

named Gordon. Tropical Storm Chris, occurred on June 19 and became the season’s

first hurricane two days later on June 21. It also shows that Ernesto The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season started quickly but slowed in July. is the second hurricane of 2012 and that the average occurrence of Nonetheless, 2005 and 1995 are the only other years since 1950 with the second hurricane is August 30. six named storms by this date.

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average a 30% chance of additional tropical cyclone formation in the orange remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 8 region near Africa and a 0% chance in the yellow region further to is 92% for all hurricanes and 95% for major hurricanes. the west. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 8, 2012 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20%

Risk Daily Average

Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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