Part 2 Supplemental Information Of
Part 2 Supplemental information of Logistics Hub Master Plan 10. Demand Forecast 10. Demand Forecast 10.1 Introduction The future freight demand relevant to Namibia is forecast for (i) the estimation of potential of transit cargo demand through Namibia, (ii) evaluation of existing infrastructure such as road and railway for the future growth of freight demand and contribution to planning of improvement and development plan. For that purpose, the future freight demand is forecast considering the growth of international trade of neighbouring countries, assumption of international transit cargo through Namibia and by surface transport modes. The future freight demand is calculated for the following cases. • Target years of demand forecast are 2013 as existing, 2015, 2020, 2025 and further 2045. • For the potential transit cargo through Namibia, international trade of goods between Zambia, Botswana and Europe, America, Angola and South Africa are included. Especially, transit cargo of Zambia and Botswana is forecast for two cases, namely, (i) As a base case, same ratio of existing transit cargo through Namibia of international trade of Zambia / Botswana with Europe / America is applied to future international trade of Zambia and Botswana with Europe / America, and (ii) as a maximum case, 100% of trade of Zambia / Botswana with Europe / America is assumed to pass through Namibia. • Future freight volume by transport mode, namely, road and railway is computed by (i) existing modal share by origin, destination and type of commodity, and (ii) proposed socio-economical modal share and service. Source: JICA Study Team Figure 10.1: Assumption of potential transit cargo through Namibia 10-1 Master Plan for Development of an International Logistics Hub for SADC Countries in the Republic of Namibia Final Report Appendix Future freight demand prepared by origin and destination (OD) is assigned on the transport network modelled by computer program to confirm forecast volume at section or route of road and railway.
[Show full text]