Security Council of Russia
BACKGROUND GUIDE
CHAIR: Elijah Spiegel
Security Council of Russia
Chair: Elijah Spiegel
Chair’s Letter
Dear Honorable Members of the Security Council of Russia,
The world is changing. The West is discovering the contradictions of its neoliberal ideology as it struggles with internal dissent represented by the likes of Donald Trump, Frauke Petry, and Marine Le
Pen. They are failing to maintain order in the Middle East. They are failing to maintain order amongst themselves. Now is the time for
Russia to take up the slack reins of power.
As members of the Security Council of Russia, you will collectively work to decide the policies that will restore Russian greatness. Your goals, in descending order of importance, are to defend Russian national security, defend against foreign influence, and promote domestic prosperity. As you see it, the primary antagonists to your goals are the Western powers (NATO, the EU, the
US). This rivalry, real or merely perceived, has been a defining feature of the Russian view of international affairs for decades. The current political climate, however, opens the opportunity to push back against these foreign powers and reassert Russian interests, if you play your cards right.
My name is Elijah Spiegel, and it’s my privilege to chair your committee at PacMUN this year. I joined Stanford’s Model United
Nations last year, went to conferences at Yale, USC, and NYU with the team, and led the crisis room for the Ukraine committee at last year’s
Stanford Model United Nations Conference. I am a sophomore at
Stanford, intending to major in philosophy and mathematics. Model UN has provided me with a wonderful community and many friends. I hope that this conference will provide the same to you.
СЛАВА РОССИИ!
Elijah Spiegel
Introduction to Committee
You are a member of the Security Council of Russia, the governmental body that consults directly with the President of the
Russian Federation to address critical issues of national security.
You will have the chance to make decisions affecting the future of
Russia on the world stage, and regain the stature that Russia once had as a global power. Russia is at a turning point in deciding its future, and it is up to you and your fellow delegates to make policies that will preserve Russian security, promote Russian interests abroad, and steer Russia to greatness.
Russia is in the curious position of strengthening its position abroad at the same time as it faces challenges at home. Russia is increasing its strength beyond its borders: inserting itself as a power-broker in areas such as Syria and the greater Middle East, undermining liberal democracies abroad through its support far-right political parties in Western Europe and the United States, and maintaining its historical presence in the Donbass of Ukraine. At the same time, it faces internal issues that weaken its position as a global power: a stagnating economy dangerously dependent on commodities, an increasingly agitated and Western-minded generation of youths, and an aging population combined with falling life expectancies. The Security Council of Russia, though focused on looking outwards to secure Russia’s influence at large, will have to be mindful of issues at home that may cripple its efforts abroad if left unchecked. The State of the Nation
Military Capacities
Russia remains one of the three strongest military powers in the
world, alongside the US and China. Its defense budget is almost
$70 billion, and over three million military personnel (one third
of which is active personnel). Since around 2015, as climate
change caused ice to recede, Russia stepped up its military
presence in the Arctic Circle along its northern coast. In
January 2017, Russia signed an agreement with Turkey that, most
significantly, would expand Russia’s Tartus naval base on the
Syrian coast. Russia also has great capacities for cyber-warfare,
a strength demonstrated with a major cyberattack that cut
electricity to hundreds of millions of Ukrainians in 2015, and a
massive campaign of cyberattacks on Estonia in 2007. Russia’s
main military rivals are, of course, the United States and NATO.
Compromising them will be necessary to establish a multipolar
world order.
Military Strategy
Russia’s geographic location makes its western flank its most
vulnerable. Thus, maintaining influence over Eastern European
powers and balancing against Western countries is among Russia’s
top priorities. Russia does not currently have the military
capacity to stand up to the combined forces of NATO on the
ground. To make up for it, Moscow leverages its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. Russia has expressed readiness to use nuclear
retaliation against non-nuclear attacks.1
Due to this reliance on its missile arsenal to defend its
interests, the presence of ballistic missile defense technology
in Eastern Europe is one of Russia’s present concerns over
regional security. NATO and the US implemented the defenses
ostensibly to guard against a potential nuclear Iran. However,
these missile defense systems are a long-term threat to Russian
national interests.
Rather than rely on conventional warfare, Russia has embraced the
usage of hybrid warfare, a strategy that combines conventional
and unconventional tactics. Today, these unconventional tactics
can include cyber warfare and political manipulation. That is not
to say that Russia is not prepared for conventional warfare.
Russia recently restructured its military command structure to
focus on bigger picture threats like NATO.2 However, by pursuing
indirect strategies to fracture alliances and cause instability
in the West, Russia can pursue its national interests more freely
among its Western neighbors.
Ukraine
There is currently a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine, after the
fighting that took place in recent years. Pro-Russian separatist
1 Lamrani, Omar. "The U.S. and Russia Plan for Conflict." Stratfor Worldview. May 25, 2016. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-and-russia-plan-conflict. 2 Ibid forces, which some believe are propped up by Moscow, are still
present in the region. The Minsk II settlement, reached in 2015
and intended to put an end to hostilities in the Donbas region,
has yet to be implemented.3 Some have suggested abandoning the
Minsk agreement, but without a viable alternative, the agreement
will probably remain on the table in limbo for now. Residents of
the contested regions are divided on how to proceed politically.
One-third is in support of remaining in Ukraine, another third is
in support of having a special status within Ukraine, and the
final third is in support of having a special status within
Russia.4 Continuing to maintain a ceasefire could persuade
Western European countries to lift sanctions against Russia, but
at the cost of holding off on pursuing regional interests in
Ukraine by military means.
Syria
Russia has reasserted itself on the world stage by playing in the
oft-repeated game of world powers: acting as power broker in the
Middle East. Russia currently supports the Bashar al-Assad regime
in Syria. Western powers currently support anti-Assad rebels,
although they do not technically recognize Rojava, a de facto
autonomous region in Northern Syria that supports principles of
democratic socialism, gender equality, and secular polity.5
3 Hill, Fiona, and Steven Pifer. "Dealing with a simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict." Brookings. February 01, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/research/dealing-with-a-simmering-ukraine-russia-conflict/. 4 Sasse, Gwendolyn. "Little Success for Little Russia." Carnegie Europe. July 24, 2017. http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/72618. 5 "Rojava." Wikipedia. October 14, 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava. Another actor in the conflict is the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS, ISIL). Russia has primarily acted by providing air
support to the Assad regime. Russia’s interests in the region can
be traced back to Soviet influence in Syria that was lost after
the dissolution of the USSR. Syria is an opportunity for Russia
to show that it is regaining its former influence on the
international stage as well as an opportunity to show its
military might.
North Korea
It is difficult to be certain, of course, but there are
indications that North Korea enjoys Russian backing. Russia
currently provides economic support to North Korea in trade,
internet traffic routing, and fuel6. Russia’s interests in the
region are primarily to prevent U.S. meddling abroad, since
Russia can’t itself compete with China as the major regional
player in the Northern peninsula. More concerning, though, is the
possibility that Russia is assisting North Korea in developing
missile technology. Many weapons experts notice similarities
between North Korea’s recent advances in weapons technology and
Russian technology seen in the Cold War. Over the past several
decades, there has been a steady flow of weapons engineering
expertise from Russia to North Korea. The benefits of this Soviet
knowledge have come to fruition over the past few years in a
6 Osborn, Andrew, “Russia throws North Korea lifeline to stymie regime change” Reuters. October 4, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-russia-analysis/russia-throws-north-korea-lifeline-to- stymie-regime-change-idUSKBN1C91X2 rapid acceleration of North Korea’s offensive technological
capacities.7
7 Warrick, Joby. “The secret to Kim’s success? Some experts see Russian echoes in North Korea’s missile advances”. The Washington Post. July 8, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-secret-to-kims- success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-koreas-missiles-advances/2017/07/08/5d4f5fca-6364-11e7- a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html?utm_term=.841a8deb1982 Economy
Macroeconomic Indicators
Russia is only just recovering from a recession triggered in 2014
by falling oil prices and economic sanctions. Oil and natural gas
account for two-thirds of Russia’s exports,8 and remain so
despite years of promises to diversify the Russian economy.
Depending on oil and natural gas prices, the Russian GDP is
expected to grow by about 1.3 percent for 2017, 2018, and 2019.9
Its unemployment rate stands at about 5%.10 Russia is expecting
rising consumption and investments to bolster the economy in the
coming years and hopes that a shake-up in world leadership may
help to roll back existing sanctions.
Oligarchs
When talking about the Russian economy, the Russian oligarchs are
one of the first topics to come to mind. It is difficult to know
how they operate, since most of their political and economic
maneuvering happen is not public knowledge, and those who seek to
expose them often die in mysterious circumstances. For example,
Gareth Williams, a mathematician helping trace international
money-laundering tied to Russia was found dead, stuffed in a
padlocked bag in a bathtub in his own apartment. The death was
8 Vinik, Danny “Chart: Russia Is Insanely Dependent on Oil and Gas Money” New Republic. July 23, 2014. https://newrepublic.com/article/118827/russias-natural-gas-and-oil-exports-are-68-percent-total-exports 9 Sanghi, Apurva. "Russia Economic Report." World Bank. 2016. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/publication/rer. 10 "Russia | Economic Indicators." Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators. ruled “a tragic accident”11 by Scotland Yard. What little is known
is that there are close ties between Russia’s wealthiest and
Russia’s political elite.12 Russian billionaires make gifts to
Russian leaders in the form of yachts, villas, and other
luxuries. It is more difficult to say what the billionaires ask
for in return, but it is unlikely that they give these gifts out
of pure charity.
11 Williams, Gareth “MI6 spy found dead in bag probably locked himself inside, Met says” The Guardian. November 13, 2013 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/13/mi6-spy-dead-bag-locked-himself-gareth- williams 12 Kolesnikov, Andrei :”Navalny Has Exposed the Russian Prime Minister’s Corruption. Now What?” Carnegie Moscow Center. March 6, 2017. http://carnegie.ru/2017/03/06/navalny-has-exposed-russian-prime-minister-s- corruption.-now-what-pub-68191 Political
Russian politics can be roughly divided into two camps: the
military siloviki and the financially-minded civiliki. The two
camps are typically pitted against each other to maintain a sort
of balance, but in recent years the stability of this balance has
been questioned. Among the populace of Russia, there are growing
trends in anti-Kremlin sentiment as well as in the opposite
direction in nationalist views. It is widely known, though rarely
acknowledged, that Putin has used unorthodox tactics to remove
particularly troublesome political elements.
The current political composition of Russia’s Federal Assembly is
unabashedly pro-Putin. In the Duma, roughly equivalent to the
U.S.’s House of Representatives, 342 of the 450 seats are held by
members of the United Russia party.13 The United Russia party
holds an ideology of “Russian Conservatism.” Despite the term,
United Russia is largely a centrist party.
The second most popular political party in Russia is the
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). As the name
suggests, it is the spiritual successor to the Communist Party of
the Soviet Union. It supports policies such as nationalization of
national resources and industry. The brand of socialism the CPRF
13 “State Duma” Wikipedia. October 1, 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Duma advocates for is a “socialism for the 21st century,”14 different
than previous iterations.
The third most popular political party in Russia is the Liberal
Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). It is a far-right party,
although its economic policies are leftist. It supports a
managerial position for the government in the economy, and a
strongly nationalistic foreign policy. The borders it advocates
for Russia would include Ukraine, Belarus, and all other former
Soviet states.15
Although the Communist Party and the LDPR are nominally
considered opposition parties to the government, both have
extensive ties to the Kremlin and President Putin. Thus, most
analysts and critics of the Kremlin will assert that a real
political opposition does not exist in Russia.
Although there is ostensibly little actual opposition in the
government, there is political opposition to the Kremlin on the
ground among Russia’s populace. Led by Alexei Navalny, a lawyer
and political activist, a large force of demonstrators and
activists has gathered to challenge Putin’s authority. Throughout
14 “Communist Party of the Russian Federation” Wikipedia. October 2, 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_the_Russian_Federation 15 “Liberal Democratic Party of Russia” Wikipedia. October 2, 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_of_Russia 2017 (so far), protesters and riot police have clashed repeatedly
in a series of anti-Kremlin protests.16
16 MacFarquhar, Neil and Nechepurenko, Ivan. “Across Russia, Protesters Heed Navalny’s Anti-Kremlin Rallying Cry”. The New York Times. June 12, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/12/world/europe/russia-aleksei- navalny-kremlin-protests.html Suggested Resources
Stratfor Brookings Institution Council on Foreign Relations Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Center for Strategic and International Studies Cato Institute Milken Institute Foreign Policy Suggested Articles (in no particular order)
Kolesnikov, Andrei “Navalny Has Exposed the Russian Prime Minister’s Corruption. Now What?” Carnegie Moscow Center. March 6, 2017. http://carnegie.ru/2017/03/06/navalny-has- exposed-russian-prime-minister-s-corruption.-now-what-pub-68191 Stratfor, “Russia Stirs the Hornets Nest” March 28, 2017. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-stirs-hornets-nest Legrand, Jerome “Russia’s National Security Strategy and Military Doctrine and their Implications for the EU” European Parliament Directorate-General for External Polices Policy Department. February 1, 2017. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/578016/EXPO_IDA(2017)578016_ EN.pdf Hill, Fiona, and Steven Pifer. "Dealing with a simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict." Brookings. February 01, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/research/dealing-with-a-simmering-ukraine- russia-conflict/. Rumer, Eugene. “Russia’s China Policy: This Bear Hug Is Real” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. July 25, 2017. http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/72671 Naím, Moisés and Weiss, Andrew S. “Putin’s Latest Anti-American Intervention: Venezuela” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. September 6, 2017. http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/09/06/putin-s-latest-anti-american-intervention-venezuela- pub-73032 Rumer, Eugene and Weiss, Andrew S. “Vladimir Putin’s Russia Goes Global”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. August 4, 2017. http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/08/04/vladimir-putin-s-russia-goes-global-pub-72736 Dorell, Oren. “Alleged Russian Political Meddling Documented in 27 Countries Since 2004” USA TODAY. September 7, 2017. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/07/alleged-russian-political-meddling- documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/# “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” National Intelligence Council Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3254239/Russia-Hacking-report.pdf Heller, Sam. “Russia Is In Charge In Syria: How Moscow Took Control Of The Battlefield And Negotiating Table”. War On The Rocks. June 28, 2016. https://warontherocks.com/2016/06/russia-is-in-charge-in-syria-how-moscow-took-control-of- the-battlefield-and-negotiating-table/
Character List
President Vladimir Putin
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko
Chair of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin
Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Anton Vaino
Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev
Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Rashid Nurgaliyev
Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu
Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov
Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev
Director of the Federal Security Service Aleksandr Bortnikov
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin
Director of the National Guard Troops Service Viktor Zolotov
Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov
Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov
Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov
Commander of the Ground Forces Oleg Salyukov
Commander of the Navy Vladimir Korolev
Commander of the Aerospace Forces Viktor Bondarev
Aide to the President Vladislav Surkov