Tuna Fisheries

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Tuna Fisheries PACIFIC POSSIBLE BACKGROUND PAPER NO.3. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Pacific Island countries face unique development challenges. They are far away from major markets, often with small populations spread across many islands and vast distances, and are at the forefront of climate change and its impacts. Because of this, much research has focused on the challenges and constraints faced by Pacific Island countries, and finding ways to respond to these. This paper is one part of the Pacific Possible series, which takes a positive focus, looking at genuinely transformative opportunities that exist for Pacific Island countries over the next 25 years and identifies the region’s biggest challenges that require urgent action. Realizing these opportunities will often require collaboration not only between Pacific Island Governments, but also with neighbouring countries on the Pacific Rim. The findings presented in Pacific Possible will provide governments and policy-makers with specific insights into what each area could mean for the economy, for employment, for government income and spending. To learn more, visit www.worldbank.org/PacificPossible, or join the conversation online with the hashtag #PacificPossible. © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: +1 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Acknowledgements This report was authored by John Virdin, Director of Ocean Policy at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, with support from Tibor Vegh, Alexandra Aines and David Bjorkback. Peter Cusack and Elizabeth Havice provided written contributions on post-harvest segments of the supply chains and the international market respectively. Bob Gillett, Quentin Hanich and Kieran Kelleher peer reviewed the draft, and Charlotte de Fontaubert and Miguel Jorge contributed extremely valuable additional comments and advice. Information and comments were gratefully received from Transform Aqorau and Sangaalofa Clark in the Parties to the Nauru Agreement Office, and Mike Batty and Wez Norris at Forum Fisheries Agency, and Les Clark. Finally, Robert Utz supervised and guided the preparation of this report. Any errors in the document, factual or otherwise, are the sole responsibility of the author. Suggested Citation: World Bank and Nicholas Institute. 2016. Tuna Fisheries. Pacific Possible Background Report No, 4 Sydney: World Bank. 2 Abbreviations and Acronyms AIS Automatic Identification System IMF International Monetary Fund EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation EPO Eastern Pacific Ocean GDP Gross Domestic Product EU European Union EUMOFA European Market Observatory for Fisheries and Aquaculture F Fishing Mortality FAD Fish Aggregating Device FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FFA Forum Fisheries Agency FPO Framework for a Pacific Oceanscape FSM Federated States of Micronesia FSMA Federated States of Micronesia Arrangement GCM Global Climate Model GHG Greenhouse Gas GPS Global Positioning System IATTC Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission ICCAT International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas IFC International Finance Corporation IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IOTC Indian Ocean Tuna Commission IW International Waters MEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield PAE Party Allowable Effort PIC Pacific Island Country PIPA Phoenix Islands Protected Area PIROP Pacific Islands Regional Ocean Policy PNA Parties to the Nauru Agreement PNAO Parties to the Nauru Agreement Office PNG Papua New Guinea RFMO Regional Fisheries Management Organization RMI Republic of Marshall Islands SB Spawning Biomass SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SST Sea Surface Temperature TAE Total Allowable Effort USDA United States Department of Agriculture VDS Vessel Day Scheme VMS Vessel Monitoring System WCPFC Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission WCPO Western and Central Pacific Ocean 3 Contents Summary for Policy-Makers ...................................................................................................................... 7 I. Introduction and Objectives of the Report ......................................................................................... 12 1.1 Introduction: The importance of tuna resources to economic growth in the Pacific Islands ............ 12 1.2 Objectives of the Report ................................................................................................................... 14 II. Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Defining the Units of Analysis within Western and Central Pacific Ocean Tuna Fisheries ............. 15 2.2 Measuring the Current and Future Economic Contribution from these Fisheries ............................ 17 2.3 Developing a Plausible Scenario for Change to 2040 to this Economic Contribution ..................... 19 III. Baseline ................................................................................................................................................ 24 3.1 Historical Development of Tuna Fisheries Value Chains in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean ................................................................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Measuring the Economic Benefits to Pacific Island Countries from the Purse Seine Tuna Fishery 26 3.3 Measuring the Economic Benefits to Pacific Island Countries from the Longline Tuna Fishery ..... 37 3.4 Summary of the Economic Contributions of WCPO Tuna Fisheries ............................................... 44 3.5 Summary of the Status of the WCPO Tuna Resource Base .............................................................. 46 3.6 Characterization of Current Status of the WCPO Tuna Asset .......................................................... 50 3.7 Summary of Key Trends in WCPO Tuna Fisheries Policy ............................................................... 51 3.8 Summary of Key Trends in WCPO Tuna Fisheries Outcomes ......................................................... 55 IV. Key Drivers of Future Changes in Western & Central Pacific Tuna Fisheries ............................ 67 4.1 Evolution of Key Non-Policy or External Drivers of WCPO Tuna Fisheries’ Economic Contribution to Pacific Island Countries ................................................................................................. 67 4.2 Proposed Key Policy Decisions to Drive the Opportunity in 2040................................................... 92 V. The Opportunity Scenario in 2040 ................................................................................................... 113 References ................................................................................................................................................ 122 List of Tables Page 1 Pacific Ocean under the Jurisdiction of World Bank member Countries……………………………….14 2 Break-Down of WCPO Purse Seine Tuna Catch by Water in 2013 and 2014 (metric tons)……………26 3 Catch levels and description of WCPO purse seine fleet segments……………………………………..29 4 Tuna Processing Plants in the Pacific Island Countries…………………………………………………33 5 Total global canned tuna consumption by region in 2008………………………………………………34 6 Break-Down of WCPO Longline Tuna Catch by Water in 2013 & 2014 (in metric tons)……………..36 7 Distribution of 2013 WCPO tuna longline catch by fleet (in tons)……………………………………..38 8 Description of WCPO Tuna Longline Fleet Segments………………………………………………….40 4 9 Estimated Contribution of WCPO Tuna Fisheries to Pacific Island Countries’ Economies in 2013…...43 10 Projected percentage changes in catches of skipjack and bigeye tuna, relative to the 20-year average for 1980 to 2000, under low (B1) and high (A2) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in 2035 and 2100 66 11 Estimated Changes by 2035 in Percentage Contributions of Tuna Fisheries to GDP and Public Revenues relative to 1999 – 2008, based on projected changes in skipjack catch due to climate change..67 12 Projected Population Growth in Pacific Island Countries and Territories to 2035…………………….84

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