APPENDIX 2

Electoral Forecasting – Mid Methodology

Context

The Boundary Commission has provided two alternate methodologies. The first is based on trends in population growth and is based on ONS population projections only. The second, within the “Local Government Boundary Commission for : Electoral Forecasting User Guidance” accounts for growth ‘beyond trends’ by accounting for future forecasts in housing growth. The Methodology used by Council closely follows the steps outlined in “Local Government Boundary Commission for England: Electoral Forecasting User Guidance”. The Council concludes that this methodology should be followed as the district is expecting higher than trend levels of growth. This is in accordance with the adopted District Plan, which meets trend growth (i.e. demographic need) as well as additional growth (i.e. unmet housing needs arising from neighbouring authorities). This document sets out the calculations, justification for data sources and assumptions made.

Step 1 – Population Overview

The first step sets out the expected number of electors for the district, without accounting for household growth.

Electors in Future Years = Adult Population in 6 years’ time x Ratio of Electors/Adult Population

Component Data Source A - Adult Population in 6 years’ time 124,022 ONS Population Projections (1) B - Ratio of Electors/Adult 0.97 ONS Population Projections and MSDC Population Electoral Roll as at Sept 2020 (2) A x B – Electors in Future Years 120,301

Notes:

(1) Figure for those aged 18+ in 6 years time (2027). Note that Mid Sussex District Council has prepared its own forecasting for use in the Local Plan process. This used demographic modelling software POPGROUP. A comparison was made between the outputs of POPGROUP and the latest ONS projections – both provide comparable results. The ONS figures have been used. Based on those aged 18+

(2) Calculated using ONS population projections for those 18+, and total on the electoral register. Results calculated for the past 3 years (i.e. the time-span of the ONS forecasting data available, for consistency) and an average taken, to avoid fluctuations in data. Note: no Higher Education establishments within the Mid Sussex area, so no adjustments have been made for Student population. APPENDIX 2

Adult Population Electors Ratio (18+) (ONS) 2018 116915 113285 0.97

2019 117635 114731 0.98

2020 118331 115103 0.97

Average 0.97

APPENDIX 2

Step 2 – Development Forecasting Step two accounts for future housing growth.

The methodology explains that it is not as simple as assigning electors to newly built households for the purposes of a forecast. This is because there may not be a direct relationship between housing growth and additional electors, or that the relationship is not 1:1. For example, new households may form as adult electors 18+ already on the electoral roll move out from their parents into a newly built household. The number of households has increased, however number of electors remains the same. The following steps account for this – both following the Boundary Commission methodology steps. Comparison of Electoral Growth and Household Growth This step identifies whether there is a strong link between household growth and house building. The result in the final column determines which set of formulae to be followed:

 Electoral Change Unrelated to Household Growth  Electoral Change with a Strong Relationship to Household Growth

Note: Electoral Change Related to Housing Development – assumed that the change in the number of electors over the past 6 years has been directly related to household growth. Assumed ‘Yes’ where there is a clear increase in electors and those on the roll, and in completions.

Change in Housing Electoral Change Households on Completions Related to Electoral Change Electoral Roll (Net) Housing Ward 2014 - 2020 2014 – 2020 2014 - 2020 Development? and 603 352 394 Yes 51 17 15 Yes 110 61 36 Yes Dunstall 104 19 24 Yes Burgess Hill Franklands 79 47 77 Yes Burgess Hill Leylands 21 11 20 Yes Burgess Hill Meeds 162 24 57 Yes Burgess Hill St Andrews 980 428 611 Yes Burgess Hill Victoria 324 115 167 Yes Copthorne and Worth 121 36 9 No Down and 315 80 271 No 602 264 207 Yes Ashplats 254 -2 60 No East Grinstead Baldwins 102 33 27 Yes East Grinstead Herontye 12 15 17 Yes East Grinstead Imberhorne 138 66 163 Yes East Grinstead Town 740 266 503 Yes 275 108 150 Yes Ashenground 225 40 48 Yes Haywards Heath Bentswood 224 89 22 Yes Haywards Heath Franklands 411 152 486 Yes Haywards Heath Heath 439 230 233 Yes Haywards Heath Lucastes 818 353 682 Yes High Weald 115 81 50 Yes APPENDIX 2

Hurstpierpoint and Downs 750 207 299 Yes Lindfield 395 159 282 Yes TOTAL 8370 3251 4910

APPENDIX 2

A - Wards which show electorate change unrelated to housing development (C) Initial future electorate forecast = current electorate (A) + change in electorate in the last six years (B)

Ward (A) Current (B) Change in (C) Initial Future Electorate Electorate Forecast Copthorne and Worth 3934 121 4055 Crawley Down and Turners Hill 5836 315 6151 East Grinstead Ashplats 4532 254 4786

(C) New housing addition = (A) net new dwellings expected in the next six years – (B) net new dwellings created in the last six years.

Ward (A) Dwellings (B) Dwellings (C) New Housing Expected Created Addition Copthorne and Worth 436 9 427 Crawley Down and Turners Hill 198 271 -73 East Grinstead Ashplats 131 60 71

(C) Additional electors from new housing = (A) Number of new dwellings x (B) electors per dwelling

Ward (A) New Dwellings (B) Electors Per (C) Additional Dwellings Electors Copthorne and Worth 427 2.00 856 Crawley Down and Turners Hill -73 1.85 -136 East Grinstead Ashplats 71 1.78 127

Forecast (C) = (A) Initial future electorate forecast + (B) Additional electors from new housing

Ward (A) Initial Future (B) Additional (C) FORECAST Forecast Electors Copthorne and Worth 4055 856 4911 Crawley Down and Turners Hill 6151 -136 6015 East Grinstead Ashplats 4786 127 4913

B - Wards which show a strong relationship between electorate change and housing development Initial future electorate = current electorate

Ward Current Electorate Ardingly and Balcombe 4860 Ashurst Wood 2119 Bolney 2255 Burgess Hill Dunstall 3962 Burgess Hill Franklands 4030 Burgess Hill Leylands 3726 Burgess Hill Meeds 3821 Burgess Hill St Andrews 4732 APPENDIX 2

Burgess Hill Victoria 4551 Cuckfield 4644 East Grinstead Baldwins 3990 East Grinstead Herontye 3851 East Grinstead Imberhorne 3765 East Grinstead Town 4490 Hassocks 6490 Haywards Heath Ashenground 4237 Haywards Heath Bentswood 4569 Haywards Heath Franklands 4238 Haywards Heath Heath 4558 Haywards Heath Lucastes 5253 High Weald 3987 and Downs 6544 Lindfield 6129

New housing addition = the net number of new dwellings expected in the next six years

Ward Dwellings Expected Ardingly and Balcombe 608 Ashurst Wood 72 Bolney 57 Burgess Hill Dunstall 925 Burgess Hill Franklands 299 Burgess Hill Leylands 760 Burgess Hill Meeds 139 Burgess Hill St Andrews 531 Burgess Hill Victoria 73 Cuckfield 451 East Grinstead Baldwins 34 East Grinstead Herontye 223 East Grinstead Imberhorne 507 East Grinstead Town 253 Hassocks 662 Haywards Heath Ashenground 0 Haywards Heath Bentswood 11 Haywards Heath Franklands 356 Haywards Heath Heath 145 Haywards Heath Lucastes 218 High Weald 184 Hurstpierpoint and Downs 195 Lindfield 198

(D) Additional electors = (A) New housing addition x (B) Factor for vacant dwellings x (C) electorate per dwelling factor APPENDIX 2

Ward (A) New (B) Vacant (C) Electorate (D) Housing Dwellings per Dwelling Additional Addition Factor Electors Ardingly and Balcombe 608 1 1.74 1061 Ashurst Wood 72 1 1.90 138 Bolney 57 1 1.88 108 Burgess Hill Dunstall 925 1 1.92 1775 Burgess Hill Franklands 299 1 1.96 587 Burgess Hill Leylands 760 1 1.81 1376 Burgess Hill Meeds 139 1 1.63 227 Burgess Hill St Andrews 531 1 1.80 954 Burgess Hill Victoria 73 1 1.86 136 Cuckfield 451 1 1.80 812 East Grinstead Baldwins 34 1 1.90 65 East Grinstead Herontye 223 1 2.02 451 East Grinstead Imberhorne 507 1 1.84 934 East Grinstead Town 253 1 1.40 355 Hassocks 662 1 1.80 1194 Haywards Heath Ashenground 0 1 1.68 0 Haywards Heath Bentswood 11 1 1.74 20 Haywards Heath Franklands 356 1 1.75 624 Haywards Heath Heath 145 1 1.59 231 Haywards Heath Lucastes 218 1 1.64 358 High Weald 184 1 1.87 344 Hurstpierpoint and Downs 195 1 1.81 353 Lindfield 198 1 1.78 353

Initial future electorate forecast + Additional electors from new housing

Forecast (C) = (A) Initial Future Electorate + (B) Additional Electors from New Housing

Ward (A) Initial Future (B) Additional (C) FORECAST Electorate Electors Ardingly and Balcombe 4860 1061 5921 Ashurst Wood 2119 138 2257 Bolney 2255 108 2363 Burgess Hill Dunstall 3962 1775 5737 Burgess Hill Franklands 4030 587 4617 Burgess Hill Leylands 3726 1376 5102 Burgess Hill Meeds 3821 227 4048 Burgess Hill St Andrews 4732 954 5686 Burgess Hill Victoria 4551 136 4687 Cuckfield 4644 812 5456 East Grinstead Baldwins 3990 65 4055 East Grinstead Herontye 3851 451 4302 East Grinstead Imberhorne 3765 934 4699 East Grinstead Town 4490 355 4845 Hassocks 6490 1194 7684 Haywards Heath Ashenground 4237 0 4237 Haywards Heath Bentswood 4569 20 4589 APPENDIX 2

Haywards Heath Franklands 4238 624 4862 Haywards Heath Heath 4558 231 4789 Haywards Heath Lucastes 5253 358 5611 High Weald 3987 344 4331 Hurstpierpoint and Downs 6544 353 6897 Lindfield 6129 353 6482 TOTAL 129034

Considerations

The following considerations were taken to inform the figures used in the calculations above.

Identifying Future Housing Development

The District Council’s Planning Policy team hold up-to-date and accurate information with regards to future housing development.

For the purposes of this calculation, the following future housing sites have been included:

 Commitments – i.e. those with extant planning permission, or allocated within the adopted District Plan or Neighbourhood Plans  Site Allocations – sites proposed for allocation for development within the Site Allocations DPD, which is due to be examined in 2020

For both sources, sites have only been counted where they would contain more than 20 electors, as suggested in the LGBC “Information Requirements” document. For the purpose of this calculation, this is assumed as developments over 10 units.

The data held can be broken down on an annual basis. The yield for each site is an estimate of the total number of completions for the period now --> 2027. This includes consideration of site clearance and preparation timescales and average build rates. The Council monitors housing developments very closely. This includes regular updates and agreements (in the form of Statements of Common Ground) with developers of all commitments and allocations, which includes development trajectories based on realistic assumptions.

These trajectories are agreed by both parties, so are therefore a highly accurate representation of delivery rates. For this reason, there is a high certainty of completion. Despite the Electoral Forecasting Guidance suggesting that sites with a low certainty of completion should be excluded, the Council is content that no such concerns exist.

For all sites included in the calculation, all but one straddle existing ward boundaries. It has therefore been straightforward to assign new development to an existing ward for the purposes of the calculation.

The exception is the strategic development site the ‘Northern Arc’, Burgess Hill. The majority of this site is within the current Cuckfield Ward, with a smaller element within Hurstpierpoint and Downs. However, the development is connected most logically to Burgess Hill and it will be referenced as Burgess Hill in future – with its southern boundary adjacent to Burgess Hill Leylands and Burgess Hill Dunstall wards. For the purposes of the calculations above and the locational spread of development, 925 dwellings have been assigned to Burgess Hill Dunstall, and 625 to Burgess Hill Leylands. APPENDIX 2

Windfall Sites

The Council has a windfall policy which allows ‘a maximum of 9 units’ outside but adjoining the Built- up Area Boundary. Constraining the figures to sites of 10+ units will mean that windfall is not included. No adjustments or allowances for windfall have been made. This is felt precautionary but logical, due to the un-planned nature of windfall development.

Housing Occupancy

The Council does not hold specific information that can be applied consistency across all potential new housing developments. Therefore, for the purposes of the calculations, the current average elector occupancy rate per property per polling district has been used in accordance with the suggestion in para 52.

This rate has been calculated by assessing the average occupancy rate for each of the previous 6 years (2014-2020) and an average taken, to avoid any particular peak or trough years.

Vacancy Rates

The Council does not hold sufficient information to be able to make an adjustment for vacancies. Due to the accurate information held on housing development trajectories and the current favourable state of the housing market (houses are often bought off plan and occupied as soon as they are completed), it is assumed that all developments completed will be occupied (i.e. no adjustments made).

Conclusion The following table displays the forecast electorate based on either A (unrelated) or B (related) household growth, and forms the Council’s estimated electorate for 2027.

Ward Forecast Ardingly and Balcombe 5921 Ashurst Wood 2257 Bolney 2363 Burgess Hill Dunstall 5737 Burgess Hill Franklands 4617 Burgess Hill Leylands 3971 Burgess Hill Meeds 4048 Burgess Hill St Andrews 5686 Burgess Hill Victoria 4687 Copthorne and Worth 4911 Crawley Down and Turners Hill 6015 Cuckfield 7702 East Grinstead Ashplats 4913 East Grinstead Baldwins 4055 East Grinstead Herontye 4302 East Grinstead Imberhorne 4699 East Grinstead Town 4845 Hassocks 7684 Haywards Heath Ashenground 4237 Haywards Heath Bentswood 4589 Haywards Heath Franklands 4862 APPENDIX 2

Haywards Heath Heath 4789 Haywards Heath Lucastes 5611 High Weald 4331 Hurstpierpoint and Downs 6897 Lindfield 6482 TOTAL 130,211

Electors in Future Years (Stage 1): 120,301 Electors based on Development forecasting: 130,211

The “Electors in Future Years” established at Stage 1 is a population-based figure and does not account for housing development. The second figure takes account of the housing forecasts.

A difference of 9,910 is shown between the two figures. Given there are expected to be 7,665 dwelling completions in the next 6 years this would equate to 1.29 electors per new household. Average within the district is 1.8 however given new housing does not translate directly to electorate (due to movements within the boundary and district as explained within the forecasting guidance), this makes logical sense.

APPENDIX 2

New Housing Development to 2027 Ward Site Yield (to 2027) Ardingly and The Oak Inn Street Lane Ardingly 5 Balcombe Land at St. Martin Close, 35 Golf House, Pease Pottage 14 Seaspace House Brighton Road Handcross 7 Land at Hyde Estate, Handcross (total) 2 Hardriding Farm, Pease Pottage Phase 1 95 Hardriding Farm, Pease Pottage Phase 3 186 Hardriding Farm, Pease Pottage Phase 4 onwards 234 Land to the west of the Rectory, Haywards Heath Road, Balcombe 14 Land to the north of Barnfield Cottages, Haywards Heath Road, Balcombe 16 TOTAL 608 Ashurst Wood Land south of Hammerwood Road, Ashurst Wood 12 Mount Pleasant Nursery Cansiron Lane Ashurst Wood 5 Wealden House, Lewes Road, Ashurst Wood 50 Land at Willow Trees and Spinney Lewes Road Ashurst Wood 5 TOTAL 72 Land north and east of Bolney Cricket Club (opposite Queens Head Bolney) 30 Site of Former Little Orchards London Road Bolney 5 Manor, Slaugham Place (newbuild) 16 Grange Farm, Bob Lane, Twineham 6 Bolney TOTAL 57 Burgess Hill Northern Arc 925 Dunstall TOTAL 925 Land rear of 88 Folders Lane, Burgess Hill 63 Land South of 96 Folders Lane, Burgess Hill 40 87 Junction Road Burgess Hill 6 Land south of Folders Lane and east of Road, Burgess Burgess Hill Hill (excluding site 738) 190 Franklands TOTAL 299 Northern Arc 625 Former Sewage Treatment Works 125 Burgess Hill North of Faulkners Way Burgess Hill 10 Leylands TOTAL 760 St. Wilfrid’s Catholic Primary School, School Close, Burgess Hill 25 1 Cyprus Road Burgess Hill 10 Burgess Hill Town Centre, Civic Way, Burgess Hill 90 Burgess Hill Jubilee House Cyprus Road Burgess Hill 14 Meeds TOTAL 139 Keymer Tile Works Nye Road Burgess Hill (Phase 2) 62 Keymer Tile Works Nye Road Burgess Hill (Phase 3) 161 Burgess Hill St Land East of Kingsway Burgess Hill (Phase 1) 2 Andrews Land East of Kingsway Burgess Hill (Phase 3a) 27 APPENDIX 2

Land East of Kingsway Burgess Hill (Phase 3b) 39 Land East of Kingsway Burgess Hill (Phase 4) 240 TOTAL 531 66a Victoria Road Burgess Hill RH15 9LH 10 Kings House, 68 Victoria Road, Burgess Hill 13 Land South of Southway, Burgess Hill 30 Land to the south of Selby Close, Hammonds Ridge, Burgess Hill 12 Burgess Hill Day Centre Royal George Road Burgess Hill 8 Victoria TOTAL 73 Land west of Copthorne, Phase 3 Copthorne Way 100 Land west of Copthorne, Phase 1, Copthorne Way 303 Copthorne Land at Holly Farm, Copthorne Way 33 and Worth TOTAL 436 Clock Field Turners Hill Road Turners Hill 14 Withypitts Farm, Selsfield Road, Turners Hill 8 Sopers Ride Selsfield Road Turners Hill 9 Land west of Turners Hill Road, Crawley Down 44 Palmers Autocentre Turners Hill Road Crawley Down 8 Crawley Down Land rear of Tiltwood House, Gage Close, Crawley Down 5 Land south of Hazel Close, Crawley Down 60 and Turners Land north of Burleigh Lane, Crawley Down 50 Hill TOTAL 198 Ansty Cross Garage, Cuckfield Road, Ansty 12 Land at Bolney Road, Ansty 20 Bridge Hall, Cuckfield Road, Burgess Hill 39 Woodfield House, Isaacs Lane, Burgess Hill 30 Land at Hanlye Lane to the east of Ardingly Road, Cuckfield 55 Land South of Rocky Lane, Haywards Heath (Phase 2) 54 Wychwood Park Rocky Lane Haywards Heath 241 Cuckfield TOTAL 451 Stonequarry Woods East Grinstead 40 Land at Blackwell Farm Road, East Grinstead 10 Ashplatts House, Holtye Road, East Grinstead 29 East Grinstead Police Station, College Lane, East Grinstead 22 Packer Court Quarry Rise East Grinstead 14 East Grinstead Dart Court Quarry Rise East Grinstead 16 Ashplats TOTAL 131 Imberhorne School, Windmill Lane, East Grinstead 25 East Grinstead Phoenix House, 53 -59 Lingfield Road, East Grinstead 9 Baldwins TOTAL 34 Dunnings Mill East Grinstead 12 Hill Place Farm, Turners Hill Road, East Grinstead 200 East Grinstead Superdrug, 78 London Road, East Grinstead 11 Herontye TOTAL 223 11a Crawley Down Road Felbridge 31 Land south of Crawley Down Road, Felbridge 155 15 and 39 Crawley Down Road East Grinstead 62 East Grinstead Imberhorne Lane Car Park, Imberhorne Lane, East Grinstead 18 Imberhorne 17 Copthorne Road, East Grinstead 25 APPENDIX 2

Land south and west of Imberhorne Upper School, Imberhorne Lane, East Grinstead 210 Oakhurst Maypole Road East Grinstead 6 TOTAL 507 Farringdon House, Wood Street, East Grinstead 32 Farringdon House, Wood Street, East Grinstead 10 Sussex House London Road East Grinstead 8 Beckford Lewes Road East Grinstead 6 Bell Hammer East Grinstead 35 South of Phoenix House, Cantelupe House, East Grinstead 12 Tower Car Sales, Tower Close, East Grinstead 5 Martells Store, 1-4 Normans Gardens and Queens Road, East Grinstead 107 Wallis Centre, De La Warr Road, East Grinstead 7 Queensmere, 49 Queens Road, East Grinstead 14 East Grinstead 30 - 34 London Road East Grinstead 17 Town TOTAL 253 Land adjacent to Station Goods Yard Hassocks 16 Land to rear of Friars Oak London Road Hassocks 130 Land at the Ham, London Road, Hassocks 66 Delivery Office 36 Keymer Road Hassocks 10 Hassocks Golf Club, London Road, Hassocks 165 Land north of Clayton Mills, Hassocks 275 Hassocks TOTAL 662 Haywards Heath TOTAL Ashenground 0 Haywards The Priory, Syresham Gardens, Haywards Heath 11 Heath TOTAL Bentswood 11 Land at Gamblemead, Haywards Heath 57 Rogers Farm, Fox Hill, Haywards Heath 25 Haywards Hurst Farm, Hurstwood Lane, Haywards Heath 250 North of 99 Reed Pond Walk, Franklands Village, Haywards Heath Heath 24 Franklands TOTAL 356 Haywards 37-55 Perrymount Road and 3-5 Clair Road 145 Heath Heath TOTAL 145 Penland Farm, Haywards Heath 129 Beech Hurst Depot, Bolnore Road, Haywards Heath 15 Haywards NCP Car Park, Harlands Road, Haywards Heath 40 Downlands Park, Isaacs Lane, Haywards Heath 20 Heath 23 -25 Bolnore Road Haywards Heath 14 Lucastes TOTAL 218 Land south of St. Stephens Church, Hamsland, 30 Land South of The Old Police House, Birchgrove Road, Horsted Keynes 25 High Weald Land north of Barrington House 43 APPENDIX 2

L/A Barn Cottage, Lewes Road, 46 Land to the rear Firlands, Church Road, Scaynes Hill 20 Land north of Top Road, 12 Bluebell Wood, Bluebell Lane, Sharpthorne 8 TOTAL 184 Land to north of Hurstpierpoint (Little Park Farm) 35 Kingsland Laines Reeds Lane 119 118 High Street Hurstpierpoint 6 Hurstpierpoint Land to the north Lyndon, Reeds Lane, Sayers Common 35 and Downs TOTAL 195 Lindfield Meadows, Gravelye Lane and Scamps Hill, Lindfield 98 Land south of Scamps Hill Lindfield 100 Lindfield TOTAL 198 TOTAL 7665